LUCKNOW CALLING

PRIYANKA v/s YOGI in 2022

Priyanka Gandhi - Courtesy: Face Book

Early in the month of July, the Housing Ministry of the Central Government served an order to Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi, cancelling the allotment of the Lodhi Estate house in Delhi, which she has been occupying for last 23 years. As expected, the BJP justified the decision, pointing out that the Gandhis, considered to be the first family of Indian politics, no longer enjoy the Special Protection Guard (SPG) protection after the Act was amended in Dec 2019 to cover only the family members of the incumbent and former PMs. The Congress went out all guns blazing; accusing the Modi government of vendetta politics and calling the move a sustained effort on the part of the Modi-Shah duo to target its top brass personally.

On her part, it seems as though Priyanka was anyway planning to shift out of Delhi with reports suggesting that she was due to move to Lucknow so that she could take her job as the party general secretary in charge of UP more seriously. The outbreak of the Corona pandemic seems to have postponed her plan, till the BJP decided to show the more hardcore elements of its core electorate that it would not go soft on the Gandhis. On the part of the INC, they have decided to milk the situation, accusing the government of witch hunt against the younger Gandhi who has been quite vocal in her criticism of the Yogi regime in Uttar Pradesh, and in the process, earn some sympathy for its High Command which has seen its stocks plummet to a low time low.

Ever since the drubbing it got in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the grand old party, has largely been on the back foot at the center, the imbroglio surrounding Rahul Gandhi’s re-appointment as the President, only making the matters worse. Under these circumstances when the party has not been able to corner the government in spite of its mishandling of the Covid situation in the country and recent clashes at the China border, Priyanka’s decision to shift base to Lucknow and help build the party in India’s most important state is certainly a step in the right direction, for the following reasons:

(1) The Gandhis are serious about UP, finally: Though Uttar Pradesh has been the home turf of the Gandhis, they seem to have some how lost touch with the state, post the Indira Gandhi era. The party has become irrelevant outside the pocket boroughs of Rae Bareli and Amethi, ceding ground, first to the BJP during the Babri Masjid demolition movement and then to the two main regional players – the Mulayum Singh & Akhilesh Yadav led Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Mayawati lead Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP); in fact, in the last national polls, BJP leader Smriti Irani even managed to wrest Amethi from the then Congress President Rahul Gandhi.

With Priyanka being one of the main weapon’s in the Congress’ arsenal for the time being, her impending move to Lucknow is a clear indication that the party means business in UP and will put its entire might to put up a good show in the 2022 state polls.

(2) A complete overhaul of the UP Congress: With the party being out of power in Lucknow since 1989, in many parts of the big state, the Congress cadre is non-existent and most of its one-time big wigs have moved on to rival camps. As seen in the 2017 state elections where it happily agreed to play a junior partner to the SP, it seemed until now that the Congress had given up all hopes, resigning to the fact that it was not a serious contender for UP anymore.

With a Gandhi scion taking hold of the reins of the party in UP, it is expected that Priyanka would usher in a series of much delayed and much needed reforms to stop the rot in the UPCC (Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee) and help rebuild the party organization, from the scratch, quite literally. Moreover, for quite some time now, she had been taking on the Yogi government on its alleged failures to provide good governance to the people. Shifting base to UP, not only gives more vigor to her barbs against the state government but is also expected to enthuse the ordinary Congress karya karta right in time for the state polls, scheduled to be held in 20 months.

In fact, she can take some inspiration from bitter rival Amit Shah who as the head of BJP state unit helped the party and its allies win a staggering 73 out of the 80 seats in the 2014 polls that saw Modi sweep to power while the Congress was reduced to its worst ever tally of 44 seats at the national level. Prior to his arrival in UP, BJP's position in the state was just a little better than what the Congress finds itself in as of now; Shah rebuilt the party, taking lots of tough decisions that ultimately paid off. Congress sympathizers are definitely hoping for such a show from Priyanka.

(3) The Division of Power: Ever since Rahul entered electoral politics, there have been accusations of there being multiple power centers within the Congress that severely curtails its ability to take quick decisions vis-a-vis the BJP where Modi’s diktat reigns supreme. It is known that the Congress is split into two camps, the old timers swearing loyalty to Sonia and the young Turks pledging allegiance to Rahul. Of late, with Priyanka taking a more active interest in politics, many feared that a new third camp may emerge, especially with Rahul finding hard to win elections for the party.

Priyanka’s move to Lucknow and Rahul taking back reins from Sonia will certainly be a step that could clear a lot of the mess regarding decision making in the Congress. Rahul would be free to take decisions at the Centre and concentrate on cornering the Modi government while Priyanka, as his trusted lieutenant can help revive the party fortunes in UP.

Priyanka’s choice of residence in UP’s capital city is laced with all sorts of symbolism; she has decided to move into the vacant house owned by Late Sheila Kaul, the sister-in-law of Jawahar Nehru. What makes the house more special is that it was here that Gandhiji and Nehru had planted a tree together way back in the 1930s. Don’t be surprised if you see Priyanka’s social media feed flooded with images of this tree in the run up to the 2022 state polls in a bid to invoke the Nehru-Gandhi legacy of the Congress.

Overall, Priyanka’s move to Lucknow certainly seems to be a step in the right direction. If she can put her political acumen and charisma to good use, she can put the party on a firm footing in UP, while keeping the Yogi government on tenterhooks. If she can get back the traditional Congress vote banks of Brahmins, Muslims and Dalits that they have lost to BJP, SP and the BSP respectively, then the party can hopefully see a revival of fortunes in the big state. In fact, the Congress should take the gamble, announce Priyanka Gandhi as its CM nominee, thereby raising the stakes. The move may or may not pay off, but then, as they say, ‘Fortune favors the Brave’. It could just be the move that could spark off a Congress revival on India's political landscape.

THE SHAH OF POLLS

AMIT SHAH'S ROLE IN BJP'S HISTORIC WIN

Amit Shah - Courtesy: India Today

The dust on the electoral battle field has settled and the incumbent PM Narendra Modi and his BJP has stormed to another term in power, this time with a much stronger mandate. The saffron party on its own won 303 seats while the NDA finished with a spectacular tally of 353 inching very close to a two-thirds majority in the Lower House of the Parliament. Though PM's popularity with the masses and the lack of a strong Opposition are cited as primary reasons for the BJP's solid showing at the hustings, it is easy to over look the role of the party President - Amit Shah under whose leadership, the saffron outfit has been transformed into a well oiled election machine that barring a few setbacks, has won most state polls in India over the last five years.

Considering that PM Modi has not been able to deliver on many of the promises he made during the run up to the 2014 polls, BJP was expected to drop seats, especially in the Hindi heartland where it had lost three crucial states in November last year. Agrarian distress and unemployment were believed to only make the matter worse for the ruling dispensation. Though the Balakot air strikes managed to turn the tide significantly in favor of the BJP, Shah's deft handling of alliances in crucial states, his efforts in strengthening the party organization apart from the his conscious efforts to expand the BJP's footprints in the East and North-East seem to have paid handsome dividends in form of massive gains throughout the country, barring deep South.

Strengthening the Party: Early in his tenure as the national president, buoyed by Modi's soaring popularity, Shah began a membership drive where people could join the saffron ranks by simply giving a missed call. Leaders right from the Panchayat to the national level were given targets and their performance was monitored. Within months, the BJP with a membership of over 10 crores became the largest political party in the world. Next, as four states went to polls, in the later half of 2014, the former Gujarat Home Minister began replicating his 2014 UP success story across the nation. Panna Pramukhs, responsible for about 8-10 families that figured on a single page of electoral rolls in a constituency, were appointed throughout the country. Key strategists from the RSS like Ram Madhav were roped into the party. In the run up to the national elections, programs like 'Mera Booth, Sabse Majbhoot' were launched to boost morale of party workers. Over the span of five years, Shah's many moves at strengthening the party, like those mentioned above, paid rich dividends as the enthused party cadre tapped in Modi's popularity to win a landslide victory.

Stitching Key Alliances: Once the pioneer of coalition politics in India, it was said that Modi's autocratic way of functioning was pushing key allies away from the BJP. Months before the polls, Shah began getting disgruntled NDA partners on board. Shiv Sena which had been the most trenchant opponent of the BJP and the PM in the last term was convinced to remain within the NDA in spite of the party supremo Uddhav Thackeray's earlier announcement of going to the hustings all alone. Nitish Kumar led JD-U was allocated 17 seats with the BJP even giving away seats that they had won in 2014 as a part of the seat sharing arrangement in Bihar. In Assam, the AGP which had left the NDA protesting over the Citizenship Bill too was convinced to back the saffron outfit for the national polls. In the south, the BJP put up an impressive front including the ruling AIADMK, Ramdos led PMK, actor turned politician Vijaykant led DMDK and so on.

As the results started trickling in on 23rd May, Shah's effort seem to have bore fruits. Though the DMK led front swept Tamil Nadu, in other places it was the NDA that trounced the UPA. JD-U won all but one of the 17 seats it contested as the NDA won 39 of the 40 seats in Bihar. Shiv Sena won 18 of the 23 seats it contested in Maharashtra with the NDA ending with a solid tally of 41 in Maharashtra. In Assam, the NDA once again proved its might bagging 9 of the 14 seats in the state.

Expanding party's footprints: Perhaps, Amit Shah's biggest achievement as the BJP national president has been his ability to expand the party's foot prints in hitherto unknown lands. Till 2014, the saffron outfit was considered as party with its base in the Hindi heartland and western India. Under Shah though, the party has made significant in roads into states like Odisha, Bengal and the North-East.

The BJP first emerged as the real challenger to Naveen Patnaik in the 2017 Panchayat polls when it stood second to the BJD. In the national polls, the party won 8 seats, an improvement of 7 over its performance in the last Lok Sabha elections. In Telangana, the saffron outfit shocked CM KCR and his TRS by winning 4 seats. This is an accomplishment considering that the pink party had swept the state polls held earlier this year. In the North East, the BJP and its partners in the NEDA won 18 of the 25 parliamentary seats. This region, till sometime back had minimal BJP presence and was see as a Congress bastion. But the story of 2019 polls was Bengal where the saffron outfit did the unthinkable, winning 18 seats and emerging as the biggest threat to CM Mamta Bannerjee's TMC.

Shah's hard work and perseverance seem to have caught the eye of the PM too. Shah has been inducted in the cabinet and is now seen as the new No 2 in the pecking order. The Chanakya who is credited for transforming the fortunes of the party is now the country's Home Minister. Can he now transform the fortunes of the country. Only time will tell.

BEST OF LUCK, BAAB!

GOA CM PARRIKAR SWORN-IN AS DEFENCE MINISTER

Early February 2005. Months after the BJP lost the national elections to the Congress and its allies, the saffron regime in Panjim was looking shaky as four of the party's 17 MLAs including the then Transport Minister Digamber Kamat switched their allegiance and joined the principal opposition, the INC. After a controversial vote on the floor of the assembly, the incumbent governor S C Jamir dismissed the state government, terming it 'unconstitutional'. Protests broke out near the BJP state headquarters located at the Navelkar Arcade, close to the Municipality. A friend of mine who lives in the complex called me knowing my interest in politics. The crowd of about 200 people (that is big by Goan standards) shouting slogans against the governor, fell into silence as the CM who had been shunted just hours ago, emerged from the office where he held a meeting with the 'remaining' saffron MLAs and other party leaders. As he addressed the gathering and declared that he would continue fighting the INC in spite of the setback, some angry BJP workers announced a 'Goa bandh' to protest over the actions of the governor who they accused of being a pawn of the Congress party. Surprisingly, in a nation where politicians are known to go to any extent for their individual gains, the deposed CM - Manohar Parrikar reprimanded his followers fully aware that a strike could cost the exchequer dearly.

Having stayed in the beach state for a decade, this is one of the many incidents that come to my mind whenever I think about the former Goa CM. In a state which is notorious for political instability, a state which is infamous for electoral malpractices like horse trading, MLA poaching and switching loyalties, Parrikar baab stands head and shoulders above the rest. As far as I can recollect, he along with his party colleague and rival Shripad Naik (North Goa MP and OBC strong man) are the only two leaders who have never 'crossed over' in search of greener pastures. A five time MLA from Panjim, he created history in October 2000 when he became the first Chief Minister to have graduated from the prestigious IITs. Some of the programmes implemented by him during his second tenure including the very popular Cyber Age Scheme under which computers are given to all higher secondary students (Class XI & XII) for a paltry sum of Rs. 1000/-, found praise from all quarters. Seven years after staying out of power, he lead his party to a famous win in 2012 state elections; his work as the Chairman of a committee appointed to probe into illegal mining and his efforts to win the trust of the influential Catholic community were seen as instrumental in cornering the Congress regime headed by Digamber Kamat - the same man who had 'back stabbed' Parrikar way back in 2005. With the BJP winning a whopping 21 seats, it was the first time since 1984 that a party had won majority on its own in the Goa assembly. In spite of the fact that the mining ban has severely crunched the government's revenues, he managed to run the administration pretty well. Off late, he did face flake from some sections for his unclear stand on issues like Medium of Instruction and the 'anti-Christian' statements made by his colleagues from the MGP. However, there is no doubt that every Goan, irrespective of his or her political affiliation would have been saddened as he resigned from his post and took oath as the Defence Minister of the country.

On several occasions, the new PM has said that he has this knack of picking the right people for the right job; of course, many would question Modi's claim with 'tainted' men like Giriraj Singh making to the union cabinet. Anyway, there is no doubt that the former Goa CM is arguably, one of the best candidates to handle the pressure related to this high profile job. Like his predecessor in the UPA (A K Anthony), Parrikar is largely seen as non-corrupt in spite of being in active politics for over two decades. Moreover, he is a proven administrator; unlike Anthony, he will be more willing to take risks, if it is in the best interests of our armed forces. Also, he is less likely to succumb to the pressures of the various lobbies that come into the picture during the time of multi-million defence deals. Modernizing the Indian defence sector and getting it in on par with the likes of China is one of the primary agenda of the BJP regime. FDI in this sector too is something that Modi is believed to be keen on so that we could reduce our dependence on foreign firms. With the Goan leader having graduated from IIT which is one of the most prestigious technical institutes in the nation, he is certainly expected to oversee his master's above mentioned grand plans. Lastly, Parrikar is a workaholic; his style of functioning in many ways is similar to Narendra Modi. And the fact that he is close to the PM and the party president Amit Shah only helps.

The new defence minister has his task cut out. Combating Pakistan sponsored cross border terrorism and keeping a check on home grown militant modules like the Indian Mujahideen is a top priority. On the eastern border, we need a strong policy to counter repeated Chinese incursions into Indian territory. At the same time, it is imperative that we develop our infrastructure along the Indo-China border so as to enable quick deployment of troops and weapons in case of a war. There is an urgent need to revamp the Indian Navy which seems to in urgent need of attention. Modernizing our military capabilities, FDI in Defence, stimulating the growth arms producing firms in India, improving co-ordination between the three commands and a good work life balance for our soldiers are other issues which will figure high in his priority list. For a politician who has worked largely within the state of Goa, handling the defence minister will be the biggest challenge of his political career so far. The PM has showed tremendous confidence by calling him to the Centre, by-passing other senior leaders including Murli Manohar Joshi, Nitin Gadkari, Venkaiyya Naidu and Uma Bharati. If he can justify Modi's faith in him, he will surely be rewarded with more such prestigious offers in the future.

As Manohar Parrikar settles into his new job, I wish him all the best. Hope that he makes the country and Goa proud!

AKHADA - Part IV

THE RESULTS

In a state where the BJP had won just four seats in 2009, its tally of 47 five years down the line is simply remarkable, especially considering the fact that the saffronists never had a recognizable face in Haryana and its organization here was virtually absent in most of the places till sometime back. However, the elevation of Narendra Modi and his many rallies in various parts of the state seemed to have stuck a chord with the voters. The Congress on the other hand was virtually wiped out; the party which was in power for a decade was relegated to the third position. The INLD whose top brass is in jail in the multi-crore recruitment scam too failed to make a comeback as the NaMo bandwagon swept it aside. Kuldep Bishnoi who was nurturing hopes of becoming the next CM of the state paid a heavy price for breaking off ties with the BJP as his party - the HJC managed to bag just two seats.

The BJP's victory in the Haryana 2014 state polls is simply astounding, perhaps even more impressive than its performance in Maharashtra. The party leveraged the anti-incumbency and the corruption allegations against the Congress and the INLD to its advantage. Of course, the image of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi did play a key role in the numbers that the saffron camp got. Besides, an exodus of leaders from these two parties helped it consolidate the non-Jat votes in the states. Moreover, its decision to cut off all ties with Kuldeep Bishnoi in spite of an understanding with him prior to the 2014 General Polls also proved to be a right decision. Massive infighting and the various allegations of corruption against the Hooda regime saw the Congress drop 25 seats. The INLD too suffered a severe low as the Chautala failed to win especially in the non-Jat regions of the state. Meanwhile, Kuldeep Bishnoi had a horrid time; his decision to refuse the BJP's offer of 25 seats was a blunder with his party ending up with just two seats.

Again, the biggest winner out of this is BJP President Amit Shah. The very fact that the party won a simple majority in a state where it lacked even basic organizational setting till a few months ago speaks volumes of his ability. With the wins in Maharashtra and Haryana under his belt, Modi's Man Friday has shut all his detractors both within the party and outside, who had questioned his strategy during the by-elections. Also, the victory is also a big thumbs up to PM Narendra Modi and the work he has done so far during his tenure. The election defeat could signal the end of road for former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda. In spit of the growing clamor against him from the likes of Kumari Selja and ABC, the high command had kept its faith in the Jat leader. However, following such a disastrous defeat, he may find it hard to stage a comeback in the near future. The Chautalas and their party, the INLD too flopped as the results have shown. Even Dushyant Chautala lost from the family bastion of Uchana Kalan. Winding up the list is Kuldeep Bishnoi. The HJC chief who dreamed of becoming the next CM of the state could only win two seats, a decline of 4 from the 2009 state elections.

For more posts on the Haryana 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)

The Chart displaying the results was created on Meta-Chart (Link)

MAHASANGRAM - PART V

THE RESULTS

For the BJP, the year 2014 continues to be perhaps, the best year in its three decade long history, that is, if we choose to overlook the setbacks in the by-elections (Link). The saffron outfit created history as it emerged as the single largest party in Maharashtra in spite of bitter fallout with its oldest ally - the Shiv Sena (SS). After the break-up of the two major alliances in the western state, nobody would have anticipated that the BJP could put up such an impressive show, so what if it failed to cross the half-way mark on its own considering that it was a five sided contest. The Shiv Sena did well to win nearly 20 seats more than in 2009 but the performance was far from satisfactory. The Congress and the NCP who had jointly ruled here for three consecutive terms had to face the heat. However, the numbers that they got were better than those in the General Polls fought in May. The MNS was obliterated, quite literally.

The wave of anti-incumbency against the Congress-NCP combine, the numerous corruption allegations against the leaders of the two parties and the image of the PM Narendra Modi seem to have helped the BJP in registering an impressive tally of 123 seats, its best figures in the state so far. There were rumors if the party had not done the right thing by pulling the plug on its alliance with the Shiv Sena, considering that it did not have a solid base in rural Maharashtra. However, the Modi wave worked in its favor; it managed to woo several leaders from the ruling combine on to its side besides holding on to its alliances with several smaller outfits. On the other hand, its former partner, the Shiv Sena was dealt a rude shock. Its 'Uttha' campaign failed as it finished a distant second, winning almost half the number of seats that the BJP bagged. The death of Balasaheb and the rise of Modi prevented it from winning a major share of the anti-government vote. Meanwhile, the Congress should be happy that in spite of winning just 2 seats in the parliamentary polls, it got 42 seats in the state. The NCP was saved the blushes as it managed to do well in its bastion of western Maharashtra and finished with a tally of 41 seats. Raj Thackeray's MNS was decimated; the party dropped 12 seats to end with just one seat. Owaisi's AIMIM and the PWPI (Peasant's and Worker's Party of India) won two seats each.

Perhaps, the biggest winner in the Maharashtra 2014 state polls is the party president Amit Shah. Questions were being raised about his leadership after the BJP's polarized campaign in the UP by-elections failed to get the seats. However, the resounding victory in the western state even after the break-up with the Sena has made the former Gujarat Home Minister the second most influential leader in the saffron camp behind Modi. The results are a big thumbs up to PM Narendra Modi too. He addressed as many as 26 rallies in the state, tearing into the Congress and the NCP while refraining from attacking the SS out of respect for late Balasaheb Thackeray. Five months into office, the Modi waves is fast transforming into a 'tsunami'.

The losers, on the other hand are many. With just 60 odd seats, the Shiv Sena has to reconcile to the fact that it is no more the bigger player in the 'saffron alliance' if it ever joins hands with the BJP in the future. The fact that the party could not even cross the 70 mark even after being in opposition for the last 15 years shows that the SS is on the decline and that Uddhav Thackeray & Co need to introspect to identify the many factors that are ailing the regional outfit. The decimation of the of Raj Thackeray and his MNS is another highlight of the polls. After scoring a blank in the General Elections earlier this year and being reduced to a single seat in the state assembly, many have even begun to write the political obituary of Raj and his party. The Congress too has been forced to eat the humble pie, yet again. Rahul Gandhi's six rallies in the state have not helped the party at all and it seems that the grand old party has nothing to combat the NaMo bandwagon. Moreover, the NCP which was the second largest constituent of the UPA has called off its alliance with the INC. And 2014 continues to bring more miseries upon the Pawars and the NCP. After the hammering in the big polls, the party managed to win just 41 seats in the state.

For more posts in this series: Mahasangram (Link)

The Chart displaying the results was created on Meta-Chart (Link)

MAIDAN-e-JUNG - Part II

JAMMU, KASMIR & LADAKH: THE BATTLE FOR THE REGIONS

Earlier this week, Congress leader and former health minister in the Omar Abdullah cabinet Sham Lal Sharma kicked up a storm when he said that the next CM of the northern state should be a Hindu. Speaking at a function to mark the birthday of former PM Rajiv Gandhi, the Akhnoor MLA was clearly trying to play the 'communal' card in the Jammu region which the BJP had swept in the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls. I wonder where the likes of Digvijay Singh and Mani Shankar Aiyer are when someone within the Congress ranks makes such 'shameful' statements. Anyway, the rise of the saffron outfit in Jammu Kashmir has completely changed the political equations in the northern state. Aware that this is perhaps the best chance that the BJP has to come to power here, newly appointed party president Amit Shah has given a clarion call to the cadre here to work towards the accomplishment of his ambitious "Mission 44+'.

I do not want to sound 'communal' but there is certain amount of truth in what the former cabinet minister has said, that is, if we analyze his comments keeping in mind, the various regions in the state and the aspirations of the people there. A look back into history suggests that ever since the former princely state joined the Indian Union, all its Chief Ministers have been from the Valley. Accounting for 53% of the total population of the state and considering that Kashmir sending 46 MLAs to the state assembly, the leaders from here have dominated the state politics, besides monopolizing the position of the CM. However, this winter, things might turn out to be different. The three way battle in the Valley and the possibility of the saffron outfit sweeping Jammu could turns Sharma's 'vision' of a Hindu heading the state into reality, albeit the person may not be owing his allegiance either to the Gandhis or the Abdullahs or even the Muftis.

To understand how important the results in the Kashmir region have been in deciding the CM of the state, we need to go back in history. In 2008, Omar Abdullah was sworn in as the CM of the state after the NC joined hands with the Congress to form a coalition government. The two partners had together won 23 of the 46 seats here. Six years earlier, when the Muftis tied up with the INC, they had together won 21 seats, one more than the NC which ended up with a tally of 20. When Farooq Abdullah took over the reins of Jammu Kashmir in 1996, his outfit swept the Valley, winning a whopping 37 seats. Now coming to the polls scheduled later this year, it remains to be seen in the three cornered contest, will any one of the three contenders - the National Conference (NC), the People's Democratic Party (PDP) or the Congress can win a sizable number of seats from here. The Muftis, after winning all three seats from the Valley in the General Elections are hoping to do what the Abdullahs did way back in 1996. If either the NC or the PDP can win 25 to 30 seats here, then it could lay a legitimate claim to the CM's post.

Meanwhile, the results in the Jammu region would be the one that I will certainly keep an eye on. After beating former CM and Congress heavyweight Ghulam Nabi Azad in Udhampur and winning the Jammu seat by a massive margin, the BJP is expected to seen a big rise from its earlier tally of 11 seats. BJP chief Amit Shah certainly had these results in mind when he spoke of his grand plans of a BJP led regime in Srinagar. With 36 seats on the line, the BJP has to perform out of its skin and go past the 30 mark and to be in a position to dictate terms. Irrespective of May results, one needs to keep in mind that the state elections will be a different ball game altogether. The party lacks a leader who can help it do well, something that Modi did earlier this year. Moreover, the saffron outfit will have to see off the challenge posed by the likes of the Congress as well as Bhim Singh's Panther's Party (JKNPP) which have strong presence in certain pockets. The PDP too is said to have made some inroads in this part of the state.

Finally, how can one forget the third region - Ladakh. Though it may not find a place in the name of the state, it is fast emerging as one of the most visited tourist destinations in the country. With a population comprising of Muslims and Buddhists, the people here elect 4 seats to the state legislature. Probably, it is because of this that Ladakh does not have much of a say in most matters that affect Jammu Kashmir. However, that may change in case the PDP and the BJP end up winning equal or close to equal number of seats in the other two regions put together. In that scenario, the 4 seats here may decide who heads the next regime in Srinagar. In the big polls, the BJP won the seat by a margin of just 36 votes. Considering that the margin of victory was very less, it is difficult to say who has the edge in Ladakh in the forthcoming polls.


For more posts on the Jammu Kashmir 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)

MAIDAN-e-JUNG - Part I

THE RACE TO BECOME THE SINGLE LARGEST PARTY

Addressing a crowd of party leaders and workers gathered for a function where he was officially anointed as the party president, Amit Shah spoke of yet another ambitious plan - Mission 44. The man who spear headed the BJP's campaign in Uttar Pradesh and was one of the foremost architects of Narendra Modi's big win in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls now wants his party men to work for the formation of the next government in Jammu Kashmir which will see elections later this year. Considering that the saffron outfit has just 11 seats in the outgoing state assembly, it is easy to write off Shah's project as some kind of 'pep' talk to boost the morale of party cadre. However, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) sweeping the two parliamentary seats in Jammu and narrowly edging out the Congress in Ladakh, there are speculations that the saffronists may end up as the single largest party in the next assembly in spite of the fact that the numbers may not be sufficient to form the government. With the Modi wave still pretty strong, the BJP will also bank upon the development plank, the shortcomings of the Omar government and even the goodwill for former PM Vajpayee amongst the Kashmiris to get the votes.

Although there was a lot of debate centered around Article 320 prior to the big polls with many in the party advocating its removal, it will serve the BJP best if the party avoids talking about it considering the sentiments of the people in the state, especially in Kashmir. Besides, it is hopeful that the consolidation of the Hindus votes may further help it in south and east. While there is high probability that the saffron outfit may finish with the highest number of MLAs, it will be interesting to see how many seats it will get and if it can make its debut in the Valley. If the BJP can go past the 40 mark, it will need support of smaller parties and independents to form the government. However, if the saffron outfit gets about 30 to 35 seats then it will have to contemplate joining hands with the Muftis to come to power. Anything below 25 will most likely mean that the BJP would end up as the main opposition in the J&K assembly.

While Shah and his party may be on the threshold of creating history, Kashmir's first political family - the Abdullahs of the National Conference (NC) are yet to recover from the debacle of the 2014 General Elections. Fighting the polls in association with the Congress, the NC drew a blank as all three of its candidates including heavyweights - Farooq Abdullah and Mehboob Beg had to bite the dust. There were lots of expectations from young Omar Abdullah when he took oath as the 11^th Chief Minister of the northern state way back in 2008. Six years down the line, the allegations of graft and lack of development in J&K have made the incumbent CM and his outfit extremely unpopular. In what was clearly seen as a move to put the blame of the Lok Sabha disaster on its former ally, the NC has pulled out of the UPA. Besides, there are reports that all is not well within the outfit and there is a growing section within the party which feels disillusioned by the Abdullahs. For the time being, it seems that the National Conference is heading towards its biggest electoral defeat in recent times; the party will be lucky if it can even win 10 seats.

Much like its former ally, the Congress too is facing the heat here. Former state CM Ghulam Nabi Azad lost to BJP's candidate Dr. Jitendra Singh by a margin of nearly sixty thousand votes in the Udhampur parliamentary seat. In neighboring Jammu, saffron camp's Jugal Kishore Sharma registered a massive win, beating his rival from the INC by over two and a half lakh votes. The grand old party did put up a tough fight in Ladakh; its candidate Tsering Samphel lost by a margin of just 36 votes. The bottom line was clear. Like in the rest of the country, the INC had lost the confidence of the people in Jammu Kashmir too. The problems have only compounded following the divorce with the NC. Although the party will find it very difficult to even come close to its earlier figure of 17 that it got in the last state polls, its 'secular' credentials make it acceptable to both the main regional players in the country. As such, if either the NC or the PDP need some seats to cross the half way mark, the first option that they will explore is an alliance with the INC.

If there is one party that can actually give a tough fight to the BJP in the race to become the single largest party in the state assembly, it has to be the People's Democratic Party (PDP) led by former CM Mufti Mohammed Sayeed. Like the BJP in the rest of the state, the PDP won all three seats in the Kashmir region, beating the threat posed by the NC-INC combine. Now with the two former allies in the UPA parting ways, the chances of Sayeed's outfit has improved further. At the same time, we must remember that with limited presence in the state, winning a majority on its own will be quite an ask for the PDP in spite of the pathetic condition that its main adversaries in the Valley, namely the NC and the Congress find themselves in. The question though is that if need be, will the Muftis be open to an alliance with the BJP - a party which is still seen by many in the Valley as communal and harmful to the interest of Kashmiris. Allying with the Congress will be much easier, that is of course if the INC can get the required numbers. In that scenario, one needs to see if the Congress will be ready to forget Mufti's betrayal of Azad's government way back in 2008.

For more posts on the Jammu Kashmir 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)

NEW PRESIDENT, NEW CHALLENGES

CHALLENGES BEFORE AMIT SHAH AS HE IS APPOINTED BJP PRESIDENT

Courtesy: In.Com

Indeed the BJP fought hard and won a memorable victory in the 2014 General Elections. After being out of power at the Centre for a decade, the saffron outfit made a strong comeback; in fact with 282 seats, it registered the best tally for a single party in the last three decades. A large credit for this splendid performance should rightly go to PM Narendra Modi; the former Gujarat CM used his 'no nonsense, pro-development' image to the full advantage; first he re-energized the cadre and then projected himself as the only viable alternative to a nation that was simmering with anti-incumbency and waiting for an opportunity to teach the 'corrupt' Congress a lesson that it is unlikely to forget soon. Of course while the victory was a collective effort on the part of the saffron party, rather the NDA and the entire Sangh Parivar, one of the heroes of this victory is Modi's trusted lieutenant and former minister in Gujarat cabinet - Amit Shah.

The controversial politician who was even jailed briefly for his alleged involvement in the Sohrabuddin 'fake' encounter case was deputed by Modi to Uttar Pradesh as soon as he was appointed as the head of the BJP's campaign team for the big polls last year (Link). And boy, the move proved to be a master stroke, isn't it? In about an year that he spent in the 'mother of all states', Shah used his political acumen to completely re-organize the local party structure; he cut anti-Modi elements within the saffron camp like Vinay Katiyar to size, entered into alliances with smaller outfits and social organizations, gave 'provocative' speeches (Link) and even chose candidates. His hard work paid off; the BJP and its partner - the Apna Dal (AD) won 73 of the 80 seats from Uttar Pradesh even bettering its previous best tally of 50 odd seats at the height of the Ram Janma Bhoomi agitation way back in 1991 (Link). As such, after former President Rajnath Singh was sworn in as the Home Minister in the Modi cabinet, there were no surprises as the master strategist was appointed as the president of the BJP earlier this week.

Hailed by many, especially in the Hindu right wing as a modern day Chanakya, Shah has been rewarded for the brilliant result that he got for the party in the big state. Winning over 90 percent of the total seats in a vast and diverse state like UP wherein voting patterns are massively influenced by factors like caste and religion is no small task. Now let me throw in some statics that will help you comprehend the magnitude of Amit Shah's achievements. The BJP in UP won more seats than what the UPA won across the country. Of the seven seats that the NDA did not bag here, five went to the Yadavs and two to the Gandhis. I understand that certain segments do have strong reservations against him, especially considering his alleged role in 'communal' activities in the past. However, rather sadly, the standards in our politics are so low that it is very difficult to find politicians with a 'clean' image. Moreover, knowing that the new PM likes to work with people close to him, there is little doubt that the appointment has his blessings too. After all, the two have been close since the early 80s when they worked as pracharaks for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

Politics is tough business and there is no time to rest on past laurels. And probably few know it more than Amit Shah. Though results of the General Polls may still be fresh in the minds of BJP leaders and its supporters, the Gujarati leader knows that his work is cut out. While the saffron outfit and its allies may have a big majority in the Lok Sabha, the government is still far away from the halfway mark in the Upper House. This makes the upcoming state elections extremely crucial, after all a vast majority of the members here are elected by members of the state legislature. In the next six months, at least three states - Maharashtra (Link), Haryana (Link) and Jammu Kashmir (Link) will go to the polls. One has to remember that all three are presently being ruled by the Congress and its allies. Amongst them, the three account for 28 of the 250 seats in the Rajya Sabha. To add to them, there are a few other states that may see snap polls anytime soon. The Delhi assembly has been in suspended animation for over eight months (Link); the Uttarakhand government is looking shaky after the defection of Pauri MP Satpal Maharaj to the saffron side after being side-lined in the Congress for long (Link); the JMM-INC alliance in Jharkhand is on a sticky wicket and the drubbing that the allies got in the General Elections has made the matters worse. Shah has to make sure that the momentum from the General Polls is taken forward and the party and its coalition partners win each of these states.

Another thing at the top of Shah's priority list is expansion in the East and the South where the party has largely been an insignificant player. In fact, the new president has made this pretty clear via twitter a few days after settling in his new role. A hallmark of the saffron outfit's stupendous victory earlier this year was that the BJP did extremely well even outside its traditional base in the Hindi heart land. While we all know that Modi magic played a key role in this, it is up to Shah & Co. to make sure that this win helps them carve out a solid vote bank for the BJP outside its 'comfort zone'. After winning all three parliamentary seats in Jammu and Ladakh regions of J&K, the saffronists are expected to at least double its last tally of 11 seats in the state assembly which will make it a sought after ally for the Mufti-led PDP in case of a hung assembly. The rout faced by the Left Front in Bengal (Link) and Kerala (Link), plus the improvement in BJP's vote share here has given a big fillip to the local party organization. In the coming years, one should not be surprised if these two states feature high in the party's future plans. In Tamil Nadu too, the outfit's ability to put together a rainbow alliance (Link) and then win the Kannyakumari parliamentary seat has shown that it is carving out a space for itself in state politics. Surely, this is an opening that Shah would like to capitalize on. The good will earned in Telangana (Link) over the BJP's support to the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh can be leveraged to its advantage and you can bet that this will surely be a part of the new president's agenda. On similar terms, the good show put up by the BJP in Haryana, Assam (Link) and Arunachal Pradesh (Link) in the last General Elections provides a golden opportunity for Shah to consolidate the saffron party's position here too.

While the margin of BJP's victory may undermine the role played by its allies in 2014, one has to realize that the BJP cannot afford to break its friendship with any of its existing 20 odd partners. Although the Modi mania worked in the General Elections, there is no doubt that the allies (Link) are important in state elections. Moreover, retaining existing friends and looking out for new ones will only further isolate its nemesis - the Congress. With the Maharashtra elections just around the corner, all is certainly not well between the BJP and its oldest ally - the Shiv Sena (SS). There were rumors that the local BJP leaders wanted the high command to scrap its existing seat sharing arrangement with the SS with some even suggesting a tie-up with Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). The new president has to make sure that its 'Mahayuti' that swept the western state earlier this year remains intact and all differences with Uddhav Thackeray's outfit are sorted out at the earliest. Also, greater co-ordination is required with Paswan's LJP after the consolidation of anti-BJP block - the JD(U), the RJD and the Congress considering that Bihar assembly completes it term next year. Also, it is in the interest of the saffron camp if the half rainbow alliance in Tamil Nadu is intact, at least till it can get AIADMK in the NDA, which in itself is an arduous task. Also, it is extremely crucial to have at least working relation with other big regional players including K Chandrashekar Rao's TRS, Jaganmohan Redddy's YSRCP, Mufti's PDP and Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF.

Challenge Number 4 will be pacifying the seniors who were unhappy with Modi and Rajnath Singh for not considering their views during the course of the 2014 polls. Now that the BJP is back in the government after a gap of 10 years with that record shattering win, it will be a good for the party if Shah manages to placate the old guard. With his vast experience in Indian politics and in the functioning of the government, Lal Krishna Advani or Murali Manohar Joshi are assets that the outfit cannot afford to sideline. Also their connections with other political parties can prove to be helpful to break deadlocks in the Parliament. Meanwhile, there were reports that Jaswant Singh was keen to rejoin the saffron camp after his rebellion against the party in Barmer ended in a flop show. Getting Jaswant and his son - MLA Manvendra will send the right signal. We all know that popular southern movie star Pawan Kalyan played a key role in the TDP-BJP aliance's victory in the state as well as parliamentary polls. If the new president can somehow manage to get Pawan to merge his Jan Sena into the saffron fold, the party will be furthered strengthened in Andhra. Also Kalyan's mass appeal will help to reduce its dependence on Chandrababu Naidu. Besides, like Narendra Modi did a few months back, Shah should make an attempt to get back former BJP leader Babulal Marandi (Link) back into the party. Though he had rejected Modi's offer earlier, the rout his party faced will certainly force the JVM chief to reconsider his decision. Also, ahead of the Jharkhand assembly polls, it will further improve BJP's electoral prospects.

In the big win that the BJP won this summer, it is easy to forget that the party won just 31 percent of the total votes. In other words, considering that the NDA as a whole got about 40 percent of the votes, every 6 out of 10 Indians did not cast their vote in favor of Modi. The learning that Shah can draw from this is that in spite of being the largest political party in India in terms of numbers, the BJP is still not acceptable to many Indians. There are many who continue to associate the outfit with right wing fundamentalism, accusing it to be a party of 'Hindus' in general and 'upper castes' in particular. This also keeps a sizable chunk of the political spectrum from doing any business with the party. It will indeed be interesting to see how the Gujarati leader combats this 'perception'. Though it is good to promote 'meritocracy', Shah has to be more practical. Considering our diversity in terms of religion, caste and gender while taking decision, especially during ticket distribution will help. Another worry for many 'liberals' is that the party will be under pressure from its 'bosses' in Nagpur to promote the agenda of the RSS. Again, it is but imperative for Shah to let the RSS top brass know that it is under no obligation of either the RSS or any right wing organization like the VHP or the Bajrang Dal. Measures such has increasing the representation fo women inside the party and promoting internal democracy will also do a whole lot of good for the saffron outfit.

Born into a middle class Gujarati family in Mumbai, Amit Shah has climbed up the ladder of success only through his hard work and dedication. A Modi loyalist since the early 80s, he has excelled in every challenge that has been thrown at him be it the decimation of the Congress hold in rural Gujarat, turning around the fortunes of the Ahmedabad District Co-opertaive Bank or leading the party to an emphatic win in UP. While he has been rewarded for the results that he got for his party, heading the BJP will truly be a test of character for Modi's Man Friday. All his actions will be scrutinized and controversies will be created where none exists. Will he succeed in his latest assignment..... Well, only time will tell!

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: In.Com
Original: Amit Shah Photos (Link)

UTTAR PRADESH & LOK SABHA 2014

THE BATTLE OF BATTLES

Now we come to the big daddy of all - the state of Uttar Pradesh. Having encompassed the entire country, we can now spend some time analyzing the most populous state of the country. Actually, only five countries in the entire world including India have more people than UP. With 80 parliamentary seats up for grabs, the way to Delhi truly passes via Lucknow. In the past though, we have seen that none of the four major parties here have been able to win a decisive victory as far as the last three Lok Sabha elections are concerned. However, in the last two state elections, the mandate has been clear; while Maya crossed the 200 mark in 2007, Akhilesh did even better two years ago (Link). Now the question is whether any of the four main contenders can do the same in the 2014. After that stunning victory, the SP is confident of a good showing. The Congress and the RLD are hopeful of doing what they did in the last General Elections. Mayawati is keen on a comeback whereas the BJP is hopeful that the Modi wave will help them boost their figures.

ISSUES

(1) Development: While it is India's largest state, UP has lagged behind others like Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu in terms of industrial development. In spite of having extensive natural resources at its disposal, fertile soil and abundant water, majority of people continue to remain poor. One of the biggest reasons for this is has been that the local politics has been dominated by factors like caste and religion. However, this time the BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi has focused his election agenda on the plank of development. Of course this doesn't mean that there has been no caste or communal polarization by the saffron camp. However, the ground reality remains that the people here are keen to usher in development and enjoy fruits of it.

(2) Performance of the Akhilesh Yadav: It has been a little over two years since the young Akhilesh was placed at the helm of affairs in Lucknow. At 39 years old, he was one of the youngest CMs of the country and a lot was expected from him. Probably, the General Elections are the best time to see if the SP leader has been able to win the hearts of the people or not. While his regime has been true to some of its electoral promises made during the campaign, the fact remains that the law and order situation in the state has deteriorated, like in earlier Samajwadi regimes. The failure to prevent the Muzaffarnagar riots and the suspension of upright officer Durga Shakti Nagpal have been blots on the young leader's career so far.

(3) Caste Equations: As mentioned earlier, the caste equations have traditionally dominated the politics in this state since independence. The BSP supremo Mayawati whose famed 'Social Engineering' saw her sweeping the 2007 polls has gone back to the drawing board, hopeful that selection of candidates based on their caste would help her stage a grand come back. Besides, the Dalit votes, she is trying to woo the Brahmins who played a key in her victory seven years ago. The SP is dependent on the support of the Yadavs. The BJP, known as a party of the Upper Castes has roped in the Kurmi outfit - the Apna Dal in its fold.

(4) Communal Polarization: Apart from caste politics, another matter of concern in the big state is communal polarization. This certainly works here as seen during the early nineties when the BJP swept the state, riding on the sentiments following the demolition of the Babri Masjid. The candidature of Narendra Modi has made 'Secularism' a major talking point across the nation, more so in UP which accounts for nearly half of the country's total Muslim population. Moreover, after the Muzaffarnagar riots (Link) in Western UP, communal flares are running high. Amit Shah, whose role in the alleged fake encounters in Gujarat has come under the scanner has been made the head of the BJP's campaign in UP. His visit to the Ram Janmabhoomi and his call to avenge the Muzaffarnagar riots are clearly an attempt to help it win votes on religious lines. SP Muslim face Azam Khan went a step further, claiming that it were 'Muslim' soldiers in the Indian army that won the Kargil war and later even refused to apologize. Congress president Sonia Gandhi met the Shahi Imam Syed Ahmed Bukhari to help consolidate minority votes. Even Mayawati has given many seats to Muslims.

CONTENDERS

(1) Samajwadi Party (SP): There were a lot of expectations as young Akhilesh Yadav was made the CM of UP after he led the party to a handsome victory in the state assembly polls. Two years down the line though, nothing seems to have changed. While his performance has been much better than that of the preceding Mayawati regime, the young Turk's inability to protect the Muslims during the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013 has led to bad press. With his son in Lucknow, daddy Mulayum Singh Yadav is eyeing a bigger role for himself in national politics, having been a founder member of the Third Front (Link). If he does manage to win over 25 seats, he could be the Federal coalition's PM choice. Apart from highlighting their regime's 'development' work, the SP is also hoping to benefit from communal polarization, especially in the aftermath of the riots and the candidature of Narendra Modi. In fact, senior leader and outfit's Muslim face Azam Khan had been banned by the EC from campaigning for flaring up religious sentiments. Also, in a bid to stem the Modi wave, Mulayum has also decided to contest from Azamgarh, besides his traditional seat of Mainpuri. Other candidates include the CM's wife Dimple Yadav (Kannauj) and party supremo's nephews - Akshay Yadav (Firozabad) and Dharmendra Yadav (Badaun).

(2) Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP): For two long years, Behenji has virtually lost her political dominance in the big state to her bete noire - the SP. After that drubbing she got in 2012, the former UP CM is hopeful that the next Lok Sabha would see her making a grand comeback. However, the BSP's campaign has been rather lackluster. It has not been able to project itself as a strong contender here. Even the talks of alliance with the Congress, something that was doing the rounds for some time failed as Mayawati realized from her past experiences that her allies' votes do not go to her outfit. At the same time we need to keep in mind that she just cannot be written off. The Dalit leader may well spring a surprise like she has done in the past. As usual, she has relied on the caste equations to win seats. Her party's candidates include a mix of mix of SCs, STs, Muslims, Thakurs and Brahmins. Prominent amongst these are Akbar Hussain (Rampur), Shah Alam (Azamgarh), Qadir Rana (Muzaffarnagar), Mukul Upadhyaya (Ghaziabad), Satish Awana (Noida), Seema Upadhyaya (Fatehpur Sikri), and Narayan Singh (Agra).

(3) United Progressive Alliance: In 2009, the Congress performed out of its skin to win over 20 seats. This time, though it has the RLD with it, crossing even the 10 mark is going to be extremely difficult. Even former CM and veteran Congress leader Jagdambika Pal has crossed over to the BJP. The INC found itself in the centre of a controversy as its candidate Imran Masood in a video film threatened to cut Modi into pieces. He was later sent to judicial custody in what turned out to be an embarrassment for the party. As brother Rahul faced stiff competition from Smriti Irani and Kumar Vishwas, sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra came to the rescue, campaigning in the pocket boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli. Her war of words with Narendra Modi - the 'Neech Rajneeti' comment and with her cousin Varun provided fodder to the media. The party's nominees include the president Sonia Gandhi (Rae Bareli), her son and vice president Rahul Gandhi (Amethi), former state party president Rita Bahuguna (Lucknow), film stars Raj Babbar (Ghaziabad) and Nagma (Meerut), cricketer Mohammad Kaif (Phoolpur) and ministers - Sri Prakash Jaiswal (Kanpur) and Salman Khurshid (Farrukhabad).

The Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) is fighting the polls in alliance with the Congress. However, the situation for Ajit Singh led party is precarious. The Muzaffarnagar riots have led to a split between the two traditional voters in western UP - the Jats and the Muslims. It is believed that while the former are gravitating towards the BJP, the former may vote for the BSP. The Union government's decision to grant reservation for the Jats may help retain the farmer votes. Also, the party welcomed former SP leader Amar Singh (Link) some time back. Its key candidates include chief Ajit Singh (Baghpat), his son Jayant Chaudhary (Mathura), Amar Singh (Fatehpur Sikri) and his aide Jaya Prada (Rampur).

(4) National Democratic Alliance: For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its Mission 272+ to succeed, it has to win a significant number of parliamentary seats in UP. The saffron camp has come up with a two fold strategy to do well in the state that propelled it on to the national stage. Firstly, the party is banking on Modi's development agenda to strike a chord with the electorate who seem to have been left out of the India growth story. Secondly, for the BJP which came into prominence banking on the Hindutva plank following the demolition of the Babri Masjid, the Muzaffarnagr riots seems to have given it just the kind of the opening that it was looking for. Narendra Modi's close aide Amit Shah was deputed to UP to strengthen the grass root organization and help the party increase its tally. In fact, Shah was gagged by the Election Commission for his revenge remark while campaigning in the communally sensitive Western UP. However, he was let off after he expressed regret for his remark. Another controversy that the party found itself in was the candidature of Modi from Varanasi, a seat represented by senior leader M M Joshi. Though the saffron leader was said to be keen to re-contest from there, he was 'forced' to move to Kanpur. The BJP's candidates include Narendra Modi (Varanasi), Murali Manohar Joshi (Kanpur), Rajnath Singh (Lucknow), Menaka Gandhi (Pilibhit), Varun Gandhi (Sultanpur) and General V K Singh (Ghaziabad).

The Kurmi outfit Apna Dal (AD) has entered into an electoral alliance with the BJP. Party leader Anupriya Patel, who is the daughter of the party founder late Dr. Sonelal Patel will contest from Mirzapur. Meanwhile, Harivansh Singh has been given the ticket from Pratapgarh. The coalition is expected to help the NDA get the support of the Patel community which is strong in some pockets.

(5) Aam Admi Party (AAP): Three of the top AAP leaders are contesting from the big state as the newly launched outfit is planning to make a sensational debut this General Elections. Chief Arvind Kejriwal who resigned as the Delhi CM has filed his nomination from Varanasi against Narendra Modi in what is expected to be the mother of all battles. The kind of support he is getting shows that the temple town along the Ganga is not going to be a cake walk for the Gujarat CM. Poet turned politician Kumar Vishwas has jumped into the fray against another big name - Rahul Gandhi from Amethi. Having come to his constituency nearly three months ago, he is keen to work upon the early bird advantage. Another AAP leader and former journalist Shazia Ilmi is contesting against former Army General V K Singh from Ghaziabad.

PAST PERFORMANCE

In 1996, it was the BJP which swept the state winning as many as 52 seats and the Samajwadis emerged as the second largest party in UP while the Congress and the BSP were reduced to single digits. Two years later, the saffronists ended up with 57 seats, the highest that any party has got in the big state over the last two decades. While the NDA came to power in 1999, its tally here was reduced by half. The SP came in at a close second and the BSP and the INC crossed into the two digit mark. Five years down the line, Mulayum's party reached its zenith, winning 35 seats. Even Maya bagged 19 seats while the BJP's numbers plummeted to just 10, one more than the INC. Finally in 2009, the SP slipped to 23 although it did end up as the largest party in the state. The big surprise was the Congress which bagged 21 seats, one more than the BSP. The BJP cut a sorry figure at 10.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Samajwadi Party (SP)	23	35	26	20	16
Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	20	19	14	4	6
Congress	21	9	10	-	5
Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)	5	3	2	-	-
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	10	10	29	57	52
Others	1	4	4	4	6

(1) There were 85 seats in the state of Uttar Pradesh before the creation of Uttarakhand in 2001.

MY PREDICTIONS

The Modi wave in Uttar Pradesh coupled by some smart decisions made on the ground by Amit Shah will help the BJP and its allies win close to 50 seats. The SP will be the runners up and may win up to 15 seats. The BSP will struggle to cross into two digits whereas the Congress-RLD combine will virtually be wiped out.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	NDA (BJP + AD)	46-50
2	Samajwadi Party (SP)	12-16
3	Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	7-11
4	UPA (Congress + RLD)	3-7
5	Others	0-2

WATCH OUT

(1) A Modi wave in UP? With Amit Shah supervising the party campaign in Uttar Pradesh, many are expecting a Modi wave in UP. The state sends 80 MPs to the Lower House and a good showing here could propel the NDA close to the half way mark. The best showing that the saffronists had here was in 1998 when the BJP under Vajpayee won as many as 57 seats. There is no doubt that Modi's nomination from Varanasi was an effort to help the party's cause in the country's most populous state (Link). The question is whether the saffron camp can replicate that success, especially with the grass root organization being weakened and the star emergence of the two regional players - the SP and the BSP.

(2) Performance of the three regional players and their role in the Third Front: For the Third Front to have any chance whatsoever of coming to power, the regional parties have to do well. In fact with the SP and the BSP chiefs not seeing eye to eye, practically only one of the two i.e. the one which finishes with more seats could be a part of such a confederation. With the SP winning a massive electoral victory in 2012 state polls, Mulayum is expected to do well. The former UP CM like many other regional players is said to be nursing PM ambitions. Mayawati too is keen to make a comeback. After being demolished in 2012, the Dalit ki Beti is hopeful that a 20+ show could help her regain some lost pride. Another small regional player is the RLD. Having been a part of both the NDA and the UPA over the last five years, it would not take much for him to change loyalties and help either of the three major coalitions in case they fall short of numbers in the Parliament.

(3) Can the Congress do a miracle, yet again? In 2009, the Congress did a extremely well, winning as many as 21 seats in UP. Considering that the party's organization has completely eroded here in the past, the performance was incredible. As usual, many Congressmen gave the credit of that spectacular showing to Rahul Gandhi. Of course, that bubble bursted in the 2012 state assembly elections when in spite of heavy campaigning by Baba, the grand old party failed to even cross the 25 mark; in fact, their performance even in the family boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli was bad. Besides, many believed that Varun Gandhi's controversial statement in Pilibhit helped consolidation of the Muslim votes in favor of the INC. Now, in 2014 the Gandhi in the saffron camp has not made any such statement. So the question is whether the Congress can even come to close to that figure in got in the last Lok Sabha polls.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

GUJARAT & LOK SABHA 2014

CAN MODI PAINT GUJARAT IN SAFFRON?

In 1977, Morarji Desai - a Gandhian from Valsad became the first Indian, not hailing from Uttar Pradesh to become the Prime Minister of India. Exactly 37 years down the line, it seems that history is repeating itself. Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat is the BJP's nominee for the top post in case the NDA comes to power. Over the last few months, as the media has reported, a 'Modi wave' has swept across much of the country, at least in the parts where the saffron camp has presence. Even in places where the BJP does not boast of a strong regional structure, his ratings seem to be pretty high. And there is no doubt that the NaMonia has caught much of the western state in its grip. No prizes for guessing that the BJP is winning here. But can it go past the 20 mark in this General Elections, something that it has never managed to do under Modi? Lets try to analyze how the Gujaratis will vote this year.

ISSUES

(1) The Gujarat Model of Development: Having been in power for nearly 13 years, the Gujarat CM who is also seen as the Hindutva poster boy has made development as his election plank. In rally after rally across the country, he has spoken about the different projects and schemes that have been implemented in the state under him. From attracting foreign investments to the development of roads, from creating employment to improving the supply of water and power in all parts of the state, Modi's 'Gujarat Model' has become one of the most talked about issues this year. Of course, his political rivals and detractors have slammed him of indulging in 'crony capitalism' and his failure to protect Muslims during the 2002 riots. At a time when there is so much debate over the kind of work that Modi has done in his home state, this is going to be the dominant issue in 2014 Lok Sabha, at least in Gujarat.

(2) Modi versus the Gandhis: Narendra Modi enjoys solid popularity in his home state, a fact evident from his three consecutive victories in the state assembly elections. Trying to leverage the anti-incumbency against the UPA II government to his advantage, he has accused the Congress of failing to stop corruption and protect the country's political and economic interest. Besides, personally attacking Sonia and Rahul Gandhi, he has been particularly critical of the leadership of PM Manmohan Singh. By projecting Modi as the only leader capable of pulling India out of the 'mess' it find itself in, the BJP's campaign itself has been based around or as the others say, 'hijacked' by the candidature of its PM nominee.

The Congress has been quick in returning favor, accusing Modi of being a divisive figure who is 'against the idea of India'. In a bid to shift the focus from its government's own failures, the grand old party has raised the bogey of 'Secularism' to weaken the BJP's campaign. Besides, the internal discontent in some segments of the saffron camp like the treatment meted out to senior leaders like party patriarch L K Advani, senior leader Murali Manohar Joshi and former Union Minister Jaswant Singh has only given them more fodder to attack the Gujarat CM over his 'authoritarian' style of leadership.

CONTENDERS

(1) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): The saffron camp in Gujarat received a shot in the arm when the majority of the leaders of the Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) - an outfit formed by Modi baiters including Keshubhai Patel and Gorhdan Zafaria in 2007 came back into the party fold. However, the ride has not been smooth. It was believed that party patriarch and former Deputy PM L K Advani was keen to shift his base to Bhopal as he had better relations with Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan. After much deliberations though, the party did manage to convince its leader to contest from Gandhinagar. Meanwhile, Advani loyalist and multiple time MP Harin Patak has been replaced by key Modi aide and Bollywood actor Paresh Rawal from Ahmedabad. The CM himself will contest from Vadodra parliamentary seat.

(2) Congress: In the last two Lok Sabha polls, the party did extremely well here, giving a tough fight to the BJP. However, with the Modi wave getting stronger by the day, the INC is clearly on the back foot, at least in Gujarat. Lacking a strong local leader to take on the BJP bandwagon is showing. Former BJP leader and state CM Shankersinh Vaghela was given a ticket from Sabarkantha at the last moment. The party has nominated Rahul Gandhi aide Madhusudhan Mistry, another former RSS member against Modi from Vadodra. This was after city leader and party's first choice Narendra Rawat who had won the primaries decided to withdraw from the race leaving the INC red-faced.

PAST PERFORMANCES

Over the last five General Elections, the BJP has been always had the upper hand. In 1996, the saffron outfit bagged 16 as the Congress claimed the rest of the parliamentary seats from here. In the next two polls, the saffronists further strengthened their hold in Ahmedabad. By 1999, the party's tally had swelled to an impressive 20. On the other hand, ever since Modi has come to power in the state, the fight between the two national parties has been much more closer.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	15	14	20	19	14
Congress	11	12	6	7	12

MY PREDICTIONS

Many in the saffron camp are predicting that the BJP will rout the Congress here since it is the home state of their PM nominee Narendra Modi. However, I believe it is a little bit of exaggeration. No doubt it will win big but the party is not going to end up picking up all the 26 parliamentary seats from here.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	21-24
2	Congress	2-5

WATCH OUT

(1) Modi's political fortunes: There are three scenarios in which Modi may not occupy the top post after the Union Elections. First is if the Congress somehow manages to retain power. Second is if the Congress decided to give outside support to a Federal government just to keep the BJP at bay. Third is if the BJP in need of allies decided to replace Modi with someone more acceptable to its prospective allies. In all these three scenarios, one thing is clear - Modi's political career may be dealt a severe blow, one from which it will be extremely difficult to recover. All the anti-Modi elements within the saffron camp who are quiet at the moment will come to the forefront. Certainly after a such a closely fought campaign, there is no more going back to the post of CM of Gujarat. Moreover, the Congress in Ahmedabad will receive a much needed boost and it may well, even storm the BJP's citadel in 2017.

(2) After Modi, who? Now, in case Modi does become the PM of the country, as many expect him to be, the question is who will occupy the post of the CM of Gujarat. There are three main contenders to the post - Anandi Patel, Nitin Patel and Saurabh Patel. Anandiben, probably the second tallest BJP leader in the state today, holds several key portfolios including Revenue, Roads and Buildings and is the hot favorite. She also accompanied Modi while he was filing his papers from Vadodra. Kuniyil Kailashnathan and Purushottam Rupala are considered to be the dark horses. You never know, modi may even place his right hand man Amit Shah as the helm of affairs if he does move to New Delhi.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)