Reels, Reforms, and Resignations

Inside India’s Gen Z Political Awakening

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In 1996, a young student activist with the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) stood outside the Odisha Secretariat in Bhubaneswar alongside nearly 1,500 angry students. The issue was teh alleged Class XII examination paper leak that threatened the futures of thousands of young aspirants. Police lathi-charged the crowd, leaving the young leader Dharmendra Pradhan with multiple fractures.

That baptism by fire catapulted Pradhan into the national political spotlight. He leveraged that grassroots image to steadily climb the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ladder, serving as the National President of the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha (BJYM) between 2004 and 2010. Over the next decade, he spearheaded key state assembly election strategies as party in-charge in Bihar in 2010 and Karnataka in 2013, before leading high-stakes election campaigns to decisive BJP victories in Uttarakhand in 2017 and Uttar Pradesh in 2022. From 2014 onward, he held crucial Union Cabinet portfolios, ranging from Petroleum and Natural Gas to Skill Development and Education.

Yet, history has an unmistakable sense of irony. On July 25, 2026, Dharmendra Pradhan tendered his resignation as Union Education Minister over recurring examination paper leaks, including the NEET-UG scandal. Life has come full circle: the student activist who once bled on the streets protesting paper leaks fell victim to a massive youth-led agitation demanding accountability for the exact same failure.

The Rise of CJP: From Social Media Satire to Parliament March

Courtesy: CJP

The agitation that brought down a Union Cabinet minister didn't originate from a traditional political party. It began with the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP).

Originally created by digital creator Abhijeet Dipke as a satirical response to insensitive remarks dismissing unemployed youth, the movement’s moniker was reclaimed by Gen Z as a badge of resilience—insects that cannot be crushed. What started as viral posts quickly transformed into a physical protest camp at Delhi's Jantar Mantar. Starting with online satire in May 2026, the movement evolved into a physical dharna at Jantar Mantar by June 2026, culminating in a hunger strike and Parliament march in July 2026.

The movement gained unstoppable momentum when renowned activist Sonam Wangchuk joined forces with CJP, launching a prolonged 26-day hunger strike demanding an institutional overhaul of India's examination bodies. As thousands of students, parents, and youth groups marched toward Parliament, facing tear gas and barricades, the government could no longer ignore the outcry. Pradhan’s resignation was the ultimate concession.

The CJP-led agitation bears striking similarities to Anna Hazare’s India Against Corruption movement in 2011. Just as Hazare’s crusade mobilized nationwide middle-class anger to dismantle the moral authority of the UPA government, the CJP harnessed youth frustration to deliver a decisive blow to the ruling NDA establishment.

Shattering the Shield of Invincibility

Photo: Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 4.0

For over a decade, the Modi-led BJP operated with an aura of political invincibility, supported by a formidable social media engine. But CJP pulled off what traditional opposition parties often struggled to do: they beat the BJP at its own game. Using humor, short-form reels, meme culture, and decentralized messaging, Gen Z completely dominated the digital narrative. They forced the government to abandon its usual playbook of radio silence or deflective messaging. From top ministers releasing video assurances to senior party leaders engaging in urgent negotiations, the administration was forced to react directly to the youth.

From the BJP's perspective, this episode reveals a growing disconnect. When a party remains in power for extended periods, complacency risks creeping in. A government that loses touch with daily realities viz rising unemployment, systemic exam irregularities, and agricultural distress, risks alienating the very demographic that fueled its rise. To rebuild public trust, symbolic resignations must be backed by real, structural fixes. The BJP under Modi has weathered several political storms in the past; will they be able to tide over this remaions to tbe seen.

The Opposition's Blueprint: A Lesson for Congress and Allies

For the Congress and regional opposition parties, CJP has provided a clear roadmap. First, it showed that sustained, organized mass mobilization forces policy reversals and executive accountability, much like the historic Farmers' Protest did. Second, it demonstrated that sporadic press conferences or single-day rallies do not sustain pressure, proving that real effort must be continuous and deeply rooted in everyday grievances. Finally, leaders like Rahul Gandhi and regional heads cannot simply react to news cycles; they must actively catch and channel the pulse of youth aspirations.

The opposition previously failed to fully capitalize on past movements once momentum slowed. They cannot afford to let this moment slip by without building a long-term vision for India’s youth.

What Lies Ahead for CJP?

The Cockroach Janta Party has proven that an independent youth collective can force a Union Minister out of office. However, the true test of leadership begins now.

Histories of popular movements are littered with examples that flared up brilliantly only to fade into obscurity. To avoid becoming another historical footnote, CJP's leaders must maintain non-partisan independence and internal unity while pivoting from demanding resignations to enforcing structural exam reforms, such as overhauling the National Testing Agency. Above all, they must continue holding power centers accountable across both national and state levels.

If this movement proved anything, it is that India’s Gen Z will not take systemic failures lying down. This is a generation often dismissed as superficial, obsessed with screen time, and distracted by viral trends. But when pushed to the edge, those same digital skills become powerful tools of political organization. They can edit reels on a phone one moment, and bring a government to its knees the next. They have high aspirations for their future—and they won't stop until those aspirations are taken seriously.

THE SHAH OF POLLS

AMIT SHAH'S ROLE IN BJP'S HISTORIC WIN

Amit Shah - Courtesy: India Today

The dust on the electoral battle field has settled and the incumbent PM Narendra Modi and his BJP has stormed to another term in power, this time with a much stronger mandate. The saffron party on its own won 303 seats while the NDA finished with a spectacular tally of 353 inching very close to a two-thirds majority in the Lower House of the Parliament. Though PM's popularity with the masses and the lack of a strong Opposition are cited as primary reasons for the BJP's solid showing at the hustings, it is easy to over look the role of the party President - Amit Shah under whose leadership, the saffron outfit has been transformed into a well oiled election machine that barring a few setbacks, has won most state polls in India over the last five years.

Considering that PM Modi has not been able to deliver on many of the promises he made during the run up to the 2014 polls, BJP was expected to drop seats, especially in the Hindi heartland where it had lost three crucial states in November last year. Agrarian distress and unemployment were believed to only make the matter worse for the ruling dispensation. Though the Balakot air strikes managed to turn the tide significantly in favor of the BJP, Shah's deft handling of alliances in crucial states, his efforts in strengthening the party organization apart from the his conscious efforts to expand the BJP's footprints in the East and North-East seem to have paid handsome dividends in form of massive gains throughout the country, barring deep South.

Strengthening the Party: Early in his tenure as the national president, buoyed by Modi's soaring popularity, Shah began a membership drive where people could join the saffron ranks by simply giving a missed call. Leaders right from the Panchayat to the national level were given targets and their performance was monitored. Within months, the BJP with a membership of over 10 crores became the largest political party in the world. Next, as four states went to polls, in the later half of 2014, the former Gujarat Home Minister began replicating his 2014 UP success story across the nation. Panna Pramukhs, responsible for about 8-10 families that figured on a single page of electoral rolls in a constituency, were appointed throughout the country. Key strategists from the RSS like Ram Madhav were roped into the party. In the run up to the national elections, programs like 'Mera Booth, Sabse Majbhoot' were launched to boost morale of party workers. Over the span of five years, Shah's many moves at strengthening the party, like those mentioned above, paid rich dividends as the enthused party cadre tapped in Modi's popularity to win a landslide victory.

Stitching Key Alliances: Once the pioneer of coalition politics in India, it was said that Modi's autocratic way of functioning was pushing key allies away from the BJP. Months before the polls, Shah began getting disgruntled NDA partners on board. Shiv Sena which had been the most trenchant opponent of the BJP and the PM in the last term was convinced to remain within the NDA in spite of the party supremo Uddhav Thackeray's earlier announcement of going to the hustings all alone. Nitish Kumar led JD-U was allocated 17 seats with the BJP even giving away seats that they had won in 2014 as a part of the seat sharing arrangement in Bihar. In Assam, the AGP which had left the NDA protesting over the Citizenship Bill too was convinced to back the saffron outfit for the national polls. In the south, the BJP put up an impressive front including the ruling AIADMK, Ramdos led PMK, actor turned politician Vijaykant led DMDK and so on.

As the results started trickling in on 23rd May, Shah's effort seem to have bore fruits. Though the DMK led front swept Tamil Nadu, in other places it was the NDA that trounced the UPA. JD-U won all but one of the 17 seats it contested as the NDA won 39 of the 40 seats in Bihar. Shiv Sena won 18 of the 23 seats it contested in Maharashtra with the NDA ending with a solid tally of 41 in Maharashtra. In Assam, the NDA once again proved its might bagging 9 of the 14 seats in the state.

Expanding party's footprints: Perhaps, Amit Shah's biggest achievement as the BJP national president has been his ability to expand the party's foot prints in hitherto unknown lands. Till 2014, the saffron outfit was considered as party with its base in the Hindi heartland and western India. Under Shah though, the party has made significant in roads into states like Odisha, Bengal and the North-East.

The BJP first emerged as the real challenger to Naveen Patnaik in the 2017 Panchayat polls when it stood second to the BJD. In the national polls, the party won 8 seats, an improvement of 7 over its performance in the last Lok Sabha elections. In Telangana, the saffron outfit shocked CM KCR and his TRS by winning 4 seats. This is an accomplishment considering that the pink party had swept the state polls held earlier this year. In the North East, the BJP and its partners in the NEDA won 18 of the 25 parliamentary seats. This region, till sometime back had minimal BJP presence and was see as a Congress bastion. But the story of 2019 polls was Bengal where the saffron outfit did the unthinkable, winning 18 seats and emerging as the biggest threat to CM Mamta Bannerjee's TMC.

Shah's hard work and perseverance seem to have caught the eye of the PM too. Shah has been inducted in the cabinet and is now seen as the new No 2 in the pecking order. The Chanakya who is credited for transforming the fortunes of the party is now the country's Home Minister. Can he now transform the fortunes of the country. Only time will tell.

2016: THE STAKES ARE HIGH

The year 2015 has been one to forget for the saffron outfit; after being routed in the Delhi state polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was further embarrassed in Bihar later in the year when the NDA was convincing beaten by the grand opposition led by bitter rival Nitish Kumar. Rising prices, the 'intolerance' debate and failure of the government to bring in the much anticipated reforms has meant that the aura of invincibility surrounding the BJP and the Prime Minister has been busted; the much hyped Modi wave seems to have vanished and Amit Shah's political acumen seems to have deserted him completely.

Probably, the only saving grace for the party is that the popularity of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to remain high. However, as the Delhi and Bihar polls have shown, it cannot solely depend on the PM to win them the elections in the states. Amongst the five states that are scheduled to go to the polls in 2016, Assam is one where the BJP will fancy its chances in the wake of rising anti-incumbency against the Tarun Gogoi government. It remains to be seen what strategy the party applies in Tamil Nadu and neighboring Pondicherry. Will it revive the NDA in Tamil region and fight the polls with Vijaykant's MDMK or abandon its front and ally with the Jayalalithaa? Moreover, it remains to be seen if the BJP can finally break its jinx and make its debut in Kerala. Also, the party will hope to improve its share in Bengal.

For the Congress, this year has been a mixed bag. The year started on a bad note with the grand old party being wiped out from the capital. However, the victory of the grand alliance of which the INC was a part of in Bihar did bring in a lot of cheers. More importantly, a big hurray for the party is that its Vice President Rahul Gandhi seems to be taking charge of the affairs of late. The party's strategy to stall Parliament has worked till now but then it must make sure that it does not over do it.

Looking forward to 2016, the Congress is still to regain its lost political pride which can only be restored by a famous win in the electoral arena. Probably, from the INC's perspective, the only state where it has a chance to register a big electoral win is Kerala where it is in power. Considering the present political conditions, it is unlikely that the party can win a fourth straight win in Assam in the wake of rebellion within its ranks. Allying with the DMK is the only option to do well in Tamil Nadu whereas Bengal will be a lost cause, unless the INC makes up with the TMC.

Compared to the two national parties, perhaps the upcoming year is the most important for the Left Front as two of the three states where it has a significant presence go to the polls. And to be frank, the situation does not seem to be particularly good. In its former bastion of Bengal, the TMC is all set to retain its hold in Kolkata thanks to the inability of the Communists to put up a spirited fight. The fight in Kerala seems to be a really tight one with the Congress going all out to keep the Left Front at bay.

Finally, the stakes are high for the regional players too. Jayalalithaa who was believed to be comfortably placed to win a consecutive term is now facing the heat, especially after the deluge in Chennai and Cuddalore. The only saving grace for her is that the DMK is ridden with internal strife and the taint surrounding the alleged involvement of some of its top leaders in the 2G scam is yet to go. In the east, Mamta Bannerjee though is in a much better position, thanks to an inefficient opposition and her goons.

BIHAR 2015: THE VERDICT

BJP SWEPT AWAY AS LALU HELPS NITISH EARN A HAT-TRICK

Though many were expecting Bihar to be a close contest after a bitterly fought campaign, with leader from both camps often indulging in 'inappropriate' language and even going below the belt on some occasions, the people of India's third most populous state have delivered a resounding verdict, choosing the 'Mahaghatbandhan' led by by their incumbent CM Nitish Kumar over PM Narendra Modi's NDA. In many ways, it was a fairy tale come back for the JD-U chief; after a series of blunders that threatened to jeopardize his political career altogether, he has 'risen' from the ashes, beating the PM with whom, he has had some scores to settle with. While Kumar is all set to retain the chair of the CM, the 'Man of the Series' is certainly Lalu Prasad Yadav. The former Bihar CM who was once Nitish's staunchest rival is in my opinion, one of the biggest factors responsible for the 'grand' victory of the mega alliance. For the BJP and its allies though, the results have been crushing; saying that the NDA 'lost' the polls would be a massive under statement since they have been 'routed' with the regional front winning thrice as many seats as the BJP led coalition.

The highlight of the Bihar state polls 2015 for me has been the manner in which Nitish, Lalu and most importantly, the cadre of the two parties have resolved the bitter differences that existed amongst them in the past and literally blown away the BJP and its allies. While there is no doubt that this was an alliance to retain their political significance, the JD-U chief and the RJD supremo must be credited for sticking together in spite of varying styles of functioning and reaching consensus on all important issues including the post of CM, seat sharing arrangement, campaign strategy et all. Though there were some murmurs of dissent within their ranks initially, the cadre too seem to have worked. Remarkably, the regional front even managed to transfer their respective vote banks to candidates of the alliance across the state. The electoral campaign of the grand alliance was pretty simple. While the soft-spoken Nitish Kumar harped on the development bandwagon, the more 'brash' Lalu took on the hard line, hitting out at the PM and his aide Amit Shah at regular intervals. Of course, the many blunders from the saffron camp including the failure to project a local leader, the beef controversy and the 'unwarranted' statements regarding reservations made by the RSS chief only gave more ammunition to the regional players.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) finished as the single largest party in the state assembly, winning 80 of the 101 seats it contested, its best tally in over a decade. The Janata Dal - United (JD-U) finished with a tally of 71 whereas the Congress seems to have been a big beneficiary of the verdict. The INC won nearly 70% of the total seats it contested.

For the BJP, its dream of a saffron government in Patna was crashed after its alliance finished with a paltry tally of 58 seats. The fact remains that in spite of the NDA's superlative performance in the 2014 General Elections, the saffron outfit was always the 'underdog' considering that the two regional parties had joined hands to counter it. The BJP tried to counter this by roping in the PM to address over 30 rallies in the state and roping in JD-U rebel and former CM Manjhi with an eye on the Extremely Backward Class votes. However, a spate of errors on its part, some of which I have already recounted above cost it dearly. Some of the leaders of the party or belonging to its affiliates only made the matters worse by raking up communal and casteist sentiments further strengthening the anti-NDA votes. Spoilers like the AIMIM, the SP and the NCP failed to make any considerable dent in the Opposition's tally. Moreover, Nitish's record as a 'capable' CM and the lack of any substantial anti-incumbency on the ground meant that the BJP was wiped off Bihar.

The charts displayed here are created using the free online tool - ChartGo (Link).

DO OR DIE...

Lalu Yadav - Facebook

While most political commentators dipped their pens in black ink and wrote the political obituary of former CM Lalu Prasad Yadav after his party was reduced to mere four parliamentary seats in the 2014 Union Polls, the 'unholy and unexpected' alliance between him and his bête noire - Nitish Kumar seems to have given the RJD supremo one more chance to remain relevant in a state which he dominated for nearly two decades. In the run up to the big polls, the split in the NDA was seen by many as the 'opening' that Lalu needed to stage a political comeback after being on the fringes for nearly five years and his conviction in the multi-crore Fodder Scam; unfortunately, the Modi wave was just too strong for him to regain his lost glory. However, the realignment of political forces in the state with the coming together of the former Janata Dal constituents to take on a resurgent BJP could well be the opportunity that has been eluding the Yadav leader for long. With the sword of Damocles hanging over his head, Bihar 2015 has become a 'Do or Die' scenario for one of India's most colorful yet controversial politician.

Nobody understands the gravity of the situation more than Lalu himself. The astute politician that he is, the sheer number of 'sacrifices' that he has made in the last few months should make it clear how much importance the former Rail Minister attaches to the poll verdict. Firstly, in spite of his bitter rivalry with his one time comrade turned foe Nitish Kumar, the Yadav strongman agreed to a coalition with the latter's JD-U, the same party that has eroded Lalu's Muslim and lower caste vote base. Many were skeptical of such an alliance considering the bad blood between the two regional leaders and their ideological differences. However, Lalu on his part should be appreciated for holding on to 'Maha Ghatbandhan' in the wake of many differences. Secondly, aware of the popularity of the incumbent CM amongst the masses, the RJD supremo buckled under pressure, allowing the mega coalition to project Nitish as its CM nominee. This is so much different than the Lalu Prasad we have known over the years; remember, it was he who famously stalled Mulayum Singh Yadav's bid to become the PM back in the nineties. Not only this, he also agreed to fight the same number of seats as the JD-U, something that many believed was just not possible, more so after the RJD conceded the CM's chair to Nitish. Surely, the former CM has gone out of the way to ensure that his alliance remains strong in its battle against the NDA.

Lalu clearly understands his role in the campaign for grand alliance; his conviction in the Fodder Scam and the pathetic state of law and order in the state during his tenure as the CM make him the prime target of the BJP which has termed his days at the helm of affairs in Patna as 'Jungle Raj'. However, the RJD chief is the master in caste based politics, a factor that continues to resonate with the electorate here even today. No wonder than that he is playing the caste card to win over the voters. The recent comments by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat calling for the retrospection of reservation policy in the country and the spate in the killings of Dalits in the BJP ruled Haryana has given more ammunition for the Yadav strongman to train his gun at the saffron camp. Lalu has been the darling of the Muslims ever since he stopped Advani's Rath Yatra back in 1990 and he continues to flaunt his 'secular' credentials particularly in the wake of the Dadri lynching, hoping to stitch back his fabled Muslim - Yadav combination that was the base which catapulted him to three straight wins in the state. And in his vintage style, the Rashtriya Janata Dal boss has not shied away from attacking PM Modi even calling him a 'Brahm Pishchak' on one occassion.

Meanwhile, an indication of his declining clout in Bihar was evident from the defeat of his eldest daughter Misa Bharati from the Paliputra parliamentary seat in May last year. With his sons - Tej Pratap and Tejaswi in the fray for the state polls this time around, the stakes for Lalu Yadav are much higher. In case, the saffron alliance manages to sweep the state and the RJD fails to put up a good show, serious questions will be raised over the future of his party. In the past two years, several of the RJD's leaders including Ramkripal Yadav and Pappu Yadav have either deserted the outfit or have been shown the door. In case, the party fails to perform well in the scheduled polls, one can expect another exodus of the few remaining leaders from the party outside its first family. Not only will it relegate Lalu to the fringes, but will also take the gas out of the RJD's lantern. The Yadav strongman will certainly want his sons to have a good start in their political careers and for this to happen, a victory for the mega coalition in Bihar is essential.

Speaking to the media, Lalu had once remarked 'Jab tak rahega samose mein aloo, tab tak rahega Bihar mein Lalu'. While the starchy vegetable will continue to be a part of one of India's most famous snack for a long time, the November 12 verdict will decide the fate of the RJD chief and his party. Till then, we need to keep our fingers crossed.

P.S: I have started a new blog - Raajaniti (Link) dedicated to Indian politics. Henceforth, I will put up posts relating to Indian politics on both of these blogs. 

Also, I would request you to check out the new blog and please provide your valuable feedback.

WILL CHANKYA'S NEETI WORK?

NITISH LED 'SECULAR' FRONT TO TAKE ON THE MODI BRIGADE

The JD-U supremo Nitish Kumar who is dubbed by several political analysts as the modern day 'Chanakya' of the Indian political spectrum, pulled off another major political coup earlier this week when his name was declared as the official chief ministerial nominee of the newly formed and 'loosely knit' Janata Parivaar (JP) for the upcoming Bihar polls. With the war of words between the leaders of the state's top two regional parties - the JD-U and the RJD escalating over the past two months, the announcement made by the Janata Parivaar's de-facto chief Mulayum Singh Yadav ended weeks of speculations of a possible break down in the anti-BJP plank even before the elections. In what seemed to be a well choreographed affair, the name of Nitish as the face of the alliance was proposed by none other than his friend turned foe turned friend - Lalu Yadav.

Check Mating Lalu: Like Kautaliya who crafted the downfall of the much powerful Nanda Empire by training his protégé Chandragupta Maurya in the fourth century BC, the incumbent CM too played his cards well in the race to be the 'face' of the grand alliance. Having deposed his self-appointed successor Jitam Ram Manjhi from the helm of affairs after the latter refused to be a mere puppet, Nitish knew very well that the move could hurt him electorally with a section of the influential Maha-Dalit community refusing to back him for having mistreated their leader. Moreover, the lessons of the September 2014 by-polls were not lost on him; for halting the Modi juggernaut it was essential to keep the mega coalition together. At the same time though, to salvage lost pride and to maintain political relevance, it was equally important for him to lead it. With Lalu in the equation and the bitter animosity between the two leaders since the mid 90s being a stuff of legends, this was not going to be easy. Though the RJD chief has been barred from contesting elections after being convicted in the Fodder Scam, he was, or rather he still is, not very keen to fight the polls under the leadership of his one time rival. The Yadav strong man is a master in the art of dirty politics and side lining him was going to be a herculean task within itself.

This is exactly where Nitish displayed his political acumen; fully aware that the Congress, in spite of its moribund state of affairs in Bihar would still play a decisive role in deciding the CM candidate of the coalition, the JD-U chief had a special audience with Rahul Gandhi on a visit to Delhi. It is believed that the Congress Vice President, unlike his mother does not have a good opinion of the RJD chief. On the other hand, he has been vocal about his admiration of Nitish. One can recollect several instances wherein the junior Gandhi had praised the Bihar CM for his secular credentials even while he was an integral part of the NDA. In fact, this move was a master stroke; soon after the meeting, reports from the Congress camp suggested that INC would align with the JD-U irrespective of whether Lalu was with it or not. With the Gandhis turning their back on Lalu, the path was more or less clear for Kumar to head the anti-BJP plank. Moreover, Nitish's image as the man who transformed Bihar from Lalu's 'Jungle Raj' to one of the fastest growing states in India only further strengthened his prospects for the top post. As such, as the leaders of the Janata Parivaar met to discuss the course of action for the polls, the odds were comprehensively stacked in the favor of Nitish, forcing the wily Lalu to eat the humble pie.

The Nitish v/s Modi saga continues: With Kumar leading the mega coalition, the second part of the Modi - Nitish rivalry is all set to be played in the state of Bihar this winter. After walking out of the NDA over the candidature of the then Gujarat CM as the NDA candidate for the post of the Prime Minister, the Bihar CM was left with a bloody nose as Modi mania swept Bihar in May 2014, relegating the JD-U to a ignominious tally of two parliamentary seats. In a bid to save his face, Kumar resigned and handed power to his hand picked successor Jitin Ram Manjhi to appease the Maha Dalit community which voted for the BJP in the General Elections. In the mean time, following the realignment of the political forces in Bihar, Nitish and his new found allies - the RJD and the Congress managed to edge past the BJP by winning 6 of the 10 seats that went for the by-polls, a consolation victory of sorts. Ironically though, months later, as Manjhi transformed from a 'docile' leader into a 'clever' politician refusing to be 'controlled' by his party boss, Nitish expelled him from the JD-U and was himself back as the Bihar CM for the third time. With back to back political blunders, many were wondering if Nitish's astute acumen has deserted him and if his reign as Bihar's most powerful leader were numbered. And the man behind Nitish's unraveling was none other than his bete noire - Narendra Modi.

The Bihar polls is the perfect platform for Bihar CM to settle scores with the PM. A victory for the Janata Parivaar would be a jolt to the Modi bandwagon which hit a major road block when the AAP decimated the saffron party in Delhi earlier this year. A win would help Nitish regain most of the political pride that he had lost in the last two years and would re-establish him as a force to reckon with besides being a major fillip to the merger of the factions of the JP. However, there is a much bigger prize to be won, something that most political analysts have over looked thus far; after the General Polls, there is no 'credible' face to represent the anti-Modi or the non-NDA parties in the political sphere. The most obvious and legitimate choice to fill in this vacancy - Sonia Gandhi is not keeping well whereas the negativity still surrounding Rahul means that most believe that he is not yet 'mature' enough for the job. Regional satraps like Jayalalithaa and Patnaik who managed to fend off the Modi wave in their respective home turfs have been on cordial terms with the new government. Mamata Bannerjee has of late mellowed her anti-Modi rhetoric. The mess around AAP in the recent months has hit Arvind Kejriwal's popularity; the party's influence has not moved beyond the NCR in spite of that fabulous victory in February. A victory for the JP under Nitish would automatically catapult him to being the new anti-Modi face in Indian politics.

The Ground Realities: Though the coalition may have been announced, it remains to be seen how the talks regarding the seat sharing arrangements between the many constituents of this grand alliance progress in the coming weeks. Though the issue of the CM candidate has been settled for now, the basis for seat allocation has become another pain point for the two parties. The RJD wants the 2014 General Elections to be the basis to arrive at the seat sharing formula whereas the JD-U wants it to be the 2010 state polls. A bigger worry for the leaders of the alliance is whether their cadre and workers at the ground level are able to forget all the past differences and work together as a team. Considering the 'hatred' that the JD-U and the RJD have shared in the past, that seems to be a near impossible task. And lastly, will the alliance be able to break the caste barrier? For example, will a Yadav who has a loyal voter of the RJD for decades now vote for a JD-U nominee contesting as a candidate of the JP from his seat? Considering that the Yadavs harbour a special dislike for Kumar for ending their political dominance in Bihar, will they be comfortable with him as the CM candidate? Moreover, it remains to be seen how much damage will the Manjhi mishap cost in terms of the Extremely Backward Caste (EBC) votes. Surely, the modern day 'Chanakya' will have to put in all the 'Neeti' and perhaps, even some 'Kutneeti' to score a memorable hat-trick! 

ITS TIME TO SPEAK UP, DEAR PM

MODI SHOULD ADDRESS GROWING RELIGIOUS INTOLERANCE IN INDIA

US President Barrack Obama's speech at the National Prayer Breakfast late last week where he said that the Father of the Nation - M K Gandhi would be unhappy with incidents of religious intolerance that have taken place in the past, have certainly not gone well with a large number of Indians. Considering America's own dismal record in terms of racial discrimination, it would serve the US better if they stop preaching the world and concentrate on addressing the concerns plaguing the so-called 'open' American society. Whatever be Obama's 'real' motives in making a reference to India in his speech, there is no denying that acts of religious intolerance in the country have been on the rise ever since the BJP led NDA government came to power in May last year. Of course, there have been riots too when the Congress was in power; how can one forget the massacre of nearly 3,000 Sikhs in the capital following the assassination of late PM Indira Gandhi. But then, hitting out at the INC or asking the US to 'mind its own business' will certainly not justify the recent spate of attacks on churches in Delhi or the much hyped 'Ghar Wapasi' programmes organized by right wing groups to re-convert Muslims and Christians back to Hinduism.

What frightens me the most is the 'not-so-dignified' silence of PM Narendra Modi on this issue. Sometime back when the UPA was in power and the country was headed by Dr. Manmohan Singh, the BJP had accused him of not speaking regularly to either the media or the public. In fact, in many of his election rallies prior to the General Polls, Modi had referred to the then incumbent PM as 'Maun-mohan' Singh for failing to speak up as his colleagues in the cabinet were making money by 'selling' the country's natural resources. However, today, as some members of the BJP and its ideological allies in the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) and the Bajrang Dal are threatening the very secular fabric of the country, Modi seems to find no time to clear the air by publically reprimand the likes of Sakshi Maharaj and Sadhvi Niranjan. I mean, come on, he has time to speak about Cleanliness, Drug Abuse and Women's Empowerment. I am not trying to belittle these issues but then isn't growing religious intolerance a topic that needs to be addressed at the earliest. After all, secularism is one of the most vital tenets that our culture is based upon and any attack on our plurality is an attack on the 'Idea of India'. And then, with the PM himself being accused of failing to protect the minorities during the Godhra riots in 2002, it is important that Modi leaves no scope for the Opposition to target his own personal credentials.

For a nation that is home to people following numerous faiths, the religious diversity in our society is one of our greatest strengths. It is in our best interest to make sure that all kinds of minorities in our nation - religious, social or linguistic are protected and are allowed to follow their customs and traditions. In the present context, for this to happen, the PM needs to make some time out of his busy schedule and speak to the masses so that the country is sure what its leadership thinks. Of course, many would say that this will be only a symbolic gesture, but then, symbolism is important, isn't it? Our PM has launched a wonderful initiative by addressing the country via the radio as a part of his 'Mann ki Baat'. It will be great if our PM speaks about communalism in the next installment of this programme. Mr Modi, are you listening?

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part I

MODI v/s KEJRIWAL - ACTION SHIFTS FROM VARANASI TO DELHI

In April last year, AAP supremo and former CM of Delhi Arvind Kejriwal announced his candidature against BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi from the prestigious constituency of Varanasi along the banks of the River Ganga. Till then, it had been a fairy tale journey for the former IRS officer who was less than an year old in politics. Four months earlier, his newly launched outfit had managed to do the impossible; in the Delhi state polls, the Aam Admi Party (AAP) had a dream debut as it ended with a superlative tally of 28 seats, catapulting it amongst the most popular parties in the political arena. With 'corruption' occupying the central stage, the AAP's vision of a 'graft-free' India found popular support amongst the masses. In spite of falling short of a majority on its own, Kejriwal was sworn in as the Chief Minister of the capital after the Congress party which the former revenue officer had earlier referred to as the 'most corrupt political party' decided to give him outside support for the sake of keeping the 'communal' forces a.k.a the BJP at bay. The arrangement did not remain for long though; after a 49 day tenure largely marred by many unwanted controversies that further hit the outfit's credibility, Kejriwal resigned as he did not have the numbers to pass his pet - Lokpal Bill.

He did not lose heart though; encouraged by the success of his experiments in Delhi, Kejriwal chose to put all the drama behind and decided to go for the big prize. Though his infant party lacked organization and structure in most parts of the country, he decided to nominate candidates from over 400 parliamentary seats. And as if to drive home a point, he personally jumped into the fray against Gujarat CM Modi who was emerging as the clear front runner to the post of country's next PM. Unfortunately, Kejriwal's gamble failed. As the BJP painted the entire country in saffron, the former Delhi CM cut a sorry figure, with many raising questions over his political future.

In my opinion, the Aam Admi Party paid a heavy price for being 'over ambitious'. At a time when Narendra Modi was raising the hopes of a nation that was feeling let down by its incumbent regime through his agenda of 'inclusive development', Kejriwal's campaign of targeting politicians found relatively fewer takers. This was reflected in the results as AAP managed to win just four seats. It was routed in its stronghold of Delhi; most of its prominent leaders including the likes of Kumar Vishwas, Shazia Ilmi and Yogendra Yadav lost to their high profile opponents. And most importantly, the AAP chief himself was trounced by Modi by an impressive margin of over 3.37 lakh votes.

Though he won the face-ff against Kejriwal in Varanasi, the incumbent PM is certainly not the one to forgive and forget. As such, when he spoke at an election rally to kick start the saffron outfit's campaign for Delhi, he tore into the AAP chief's rather short-lived tenure as the state's CM. Though he did not take names, Modi advised the former IRS officer who had once called himself an 'anarchist' to join hands with the Naxals. In a bid to prevent the AAP from drawing political mileage from their move to cut electricity tariffs, the PM promised to raise power generation in the country to make sure it is available for all at cheaper rates. In his 38 minute speech, the PM's went on a complete offensive against Kejriwal aware that the battle for Delhi would be a direct contest between the BJP and the AAP.

Now, he may be down but the AAP leader is definitely not out. After all, even the idea to contest against Modi from Varanasi was a gutsy one. And in spite of a series of setbacks last year, Kejriwal refused to take the salvos fired by the PM lying down. Speaking to the media after the PM's election rally, he refuted the charges against him. Besides, he also accused the BJP government of failing to fulfill the promises it made to the people prior to the General Polls.

So, the stage is set for the second part of the Modi v/s Kejriwal saga. Will Modi make it 2-0 or will the AAP chief make him eve-steven? Lets wait and watch.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

2015: THE POLLS TO LOOK OUT FOR...

What an year 2014 has been. After 'misgoverning' the nation, especially in its second term, India's grand old party was taught a lesson that it will, rather it should never forget. The Congress that has ruled the country for nearly six decades, was reduced to a tally of 44 seats, the lowest in its 130 year long 'illustrious' history. The mother and son duo of Sonia and Rahul Gandhi tried to put on a brave face late that afternoon on the day of the results with Baba who spearheaded his party's spineless campaign, even smiling for the cameras as if 'nothing great had happened'. As if to rub salt into their wounds, the BJP under its controversial yet charismatic leader Narendra Modi edged past the halfway mark on its own, signalling the end of an era of unholy alliances and 'quid pro quo' politics that had lasted for nearly three decades. As the Modi wave raged on, regional satraps were swept away; leaders like Mulayum Singh Yadav, Nitish Kumar and Sharad Pawar were routed except in their boroughs while those like Mayawati were not even able to open their accounts. Of course, there were some notable exceptions; the likes of Jayalalitha, Mamta and Navin managed to keep the saffron forces at bay.

As far as the state polls are concerned, the BJP seems to have picked up from its superlative performance from December last year where it retained Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh while ending up as the single largest party in the capital. Months after that victory in the general polls, the BJP won over 120 seats in Maharashtra, nearly twice as much as its estranged ally, the Shiv Sena. As the two saffron parties patched up, Devendra Fadnavis was sworn in as the CM of the western state. Up north, the party created history yet again as it won a simple majority in Haryana in a poll that saw the incumbent INC being a distant third. Few months later, the BJP led alliance grabbed pole position in Jharkhand and swept Jammu though it fell behind the PDP by 3 seats in the final tally. In Andhra, it was the return of Chandrababu Naidu whereas his once bitter rival K C Chandrashekar Rao became the first CM of the newly created state of Telangana. The only consolation for the Congress was a win in the Arunachal assembly elections. Meanwhile, Odisha's Navin Patnaik and Sikkim's Pawan Kumar Chamling held their respective fortresses in spite of the emergence of strong opposition from newer forces in their backyards.

So after a cracking year that saw seismic shifts in the entire political landscape of the country, what does the upcoming year have for us. The first state to go for polls in 2015 will be Delhi that has been under President's Rule ever since Arvind Kejriwal resigned from the post of the CM following a tenure that lasted less than fifty days and was marred by several unwanted controversies. The AAP that made a blunder by opting out of the government in the national capital is hoping to put the ghost of 2014 General Polls in the past and regain the trust of the masses, something that pundits believe will be easier said than done. While the Congress continues to be a non-entity here, like in most parts of the country, the BJP is hopeful that Modi mania and AAP's track record will help it get the required numbers.

However, the polls to watch out for will be elections to the Bihar state assembly. After registering an impressive tally in the May where it won 32 of the 40 parliamentary seats, the NDA was in for a shock as the grand alliance of the ruling JD-U, the RJD and the Congress managed to salvage some pride by winning six of the 10 assembly segments where by-polls were held in August, earlier this year. The next state elections will be the true test of the new found bon homie between former bitter rivals - Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav. A victory for these former strongmen will have a tremendous repercussion on the politics of the country apart from reviving their individual political careers. In case the partnership does well, you can expect several other regional competitors to join hands in a bid to thwart the BJP which is emerging as a relevant player even in places where it earlier had marginal presence. A saffron win though will only further strengthen the aura surrounding the incumbent PM and further strengthen the BJP.

And then, there are some more states where the incumbent regimes seem to be shaky and snap polls could be held next year. The drama over the government formation is likely to continue over the next few weeks in Jammu Kashmir. Even if a coalition government is cobbled up in Srinagar, serious political differences between partners could force the governor to dissolve the assembly and ask the parties to seek a fresh mandate. Such fears are also emerging from Goa where Parrikar's departure has changed the political scenario in the state in spite of the fact that the BJP has a simple majority on its own; the state's deputy CM Francis D'Souza could raise the banner of revolt yet again and put the Parsekar government in minority in the house. In Jharkhand, the AJSU which has 5 seats could keep the BJP on tenterhooks and pull out of the government if its timely demands are not met. Perhaps, Assam could also go to polls in 2015 if the Congress fails to contain the rebellion brewing against Tarun Gogoi for some time.

Apart from state polls, here are the other big developments to watch out for in Indian polity as we usher in the new year.

(1) During the course of the high voltage campaign, Modi promised a lot of things to the electorate and a nation that had been let down by its political masters for five long years immediately gravitated towards the BJP. Now that the saffron outfit has comprehensively won the polls and the honeymoon period is over, the masses are eagerly awaiting for the big ticket reforms to be passed. Besides, with the entire opposition benches joining hands, it will be interesting to see how the incumbent regime manages to pass key legislations, especially in the Rajya Sabha where it lacks the necessary numbers.

(2) Following their phenomenal performance in the big polls, the BJP registered big gains in four of the seven states where elections were held in 2014. With Delhi and Bihar going to polls in the next few months, can the saffron outfit carry its good form into 2015? Bihar is particularly important since it will see the new look NDA take on the grand alliance consisting of the JD-U, the RJD and the Congress after the skirmishes that occurred between the two side over the last year.

(3) The last few months have been the worst in the history of the INC. After being beaten in state after state, we need to see if the new year can bring some good luck for the Congress. Also, we will see whether Rahul Gandhi has learnt from his past mistakes and has the ability to take the party forward, though many of the loyalists seem to have already given up on him.

(4) 2015 will be a crucial one for the latest avataar of the Janata Parivaar too. Apart from the Bihar elections where this new alliance has a lot at stake, we will see if the stalwarts including Mulayum, Lalu and Nitish can gulp their egos, overlook their past differences and stay together at the cost of their personal ambitions.

(5) Former CM Arvind Kejriwal and his party, the AAP are expected to come out all guns blazing to salvage some lost pride in the Delhi elections; however, regain the confidence of the people in the capital will be extremely difficult. The likes of Jaya, Mamata and Navin who did remarkably well in the general polls had their own share of controversies in 2014. While Jaya was briefly behind bars in the DA case, Mamata and Navin were busy fire fighting allegations against their confidantes in the Sharddha scam. What is in store for these regional bigwigs is something to look out for.

BEST OF LUCK, BAAB!

GOA CM PARRIKAR SWORN-IN AS DEFENCE MINISTER

Early February 2005. Months after the BJP lost the national elections to the Congress and its allies, the saffron regime in Panjim was looking shaky as four of the party's 17 MLAs including the then Transport Minister Digamber Kamat switched their allegiance and joined the principal opposition, the INC. After a controversial vote on the floor of the assembly, the incumbent governor S C Jamir dismissed the state government, terming it 'unconstitutional'. Protests broke out near the BJP state headquarters located at the Navelkar Arcade, close to the Municipality. A friend of mine who lives in the complex called me knowing my interest in politics. The crowd of about 200 people (that is big by Goan standards) shouting slogans against the governor, fell into silence as the CM who had been shunted just hours ago, emerged from the office where he held a meeting with the 'remaining' saffron MLAs and other party leaders. As he addressed the gathering and declared that he would continue fighting the INC in spite of the setback, some angry BJP workers announced a 'Goa bandh' to protest over the actions of the governor who they accused of being a pawn of the Congress party. Surprisingly, in a nation where politicians are known to go to any extent for their individual gains, the deposed CM - Manohar Parrikar reprimanded his followers fully aware that a strike could cost the exchequer dearly.

Having stayed in the beach state for a decade, this is one of the many incidents that come to my mind whenever I think about the former Goa CM. In a state which is notorious for political instability, a state which is infamous for electoral malpractices like horse trading, MLA poaching and switching loyalties, Parrikar baab stands head and shoulders above the rest. As far as I can recollect, he along with his party colleague and rival Shripad Naik (North Goa MP and OBC strong man) are the only two leaders who have never 'crossed over' in search of greener pastures. A five time MLA from Panjim, he created history in October 2000 when he became the first Chief Minister to have graduated from the prestigious IITs. Some of the programmes implemented by him during his second tenure including the very popular Cyber Age Scheme under which computers are given to all higher secondary students (Class XI & XII) for a paltry sum of Rs. 1000/-, found praise from all quarters. Seven years after staying out of power, he lead his party to a famous win in 2012 state elections; his work as the Chairman of a committee appointed to probe into illegal mining and his efforts to win the trust of the influential Catholic community were seen as instrumental in cornering the Congress regime headed by Digamber Kamat - the same man who had 'back stabbed' Parrikar way back in 2005. With the BJP winning a whopping 21 seats, it was the first time since 1984 that a party had won majority on its own in the Goa assembly. In spite of the fact that the mining ban has severely crunched the government's revenues, he managed to run the administration pretty well. Off late, he did face flake from some sections for his unclear stand on issues like Medium of Instruction and the 'anti-Christian' statements made by his colleagues from the MGP. However, there is no doubt that every Goan, irrespective of his or her political affiliation would have been saddened as he resigned from his post and took oath as the Defence Minister of the country.

On several occasions, the new PM has said that he has this knack of picking the right people for the right job; of course, many would question Modi's claim with 'tainted' men like Giriraj Singh making to the union cabinet. Anyway, there is no doubt that the former Goa CM is arguably, one of the best candidates to handle the pressure related to this high profile job. Like his predecessor in the UPA (A K Anthony), Parrikar is largely seen as non-corrupt in spite of being in active politics for over two decades. Moreover, he is a proven administrator; unlike Anthony, he will be more willing to take risks, if it is in the best interests of our armed forces. Also, he is less likely to succumb to the pressures of the various lobbies that come into the picture during the time of multi-million defence deals. Modernizing the Indian defence sector and getting it in on par with the likes of China is one of the primary agenda of the BJP regime. FDI in this sector too is something that Modi is believed to be keen on so that we could reduce our dependence on foreign firms. With the Goan leader having graduated from IIT which is one of the most prestigious technical institutes in the nation, he is certainly expected to oversee his master's above mentioned grand plans. Lastly, Parrikar is a workaholic; his style of functioning in many ways is similar to Narendra Modi. And the fact that he is close to the PM and the party president Amit Shah only helps.

The new defence minister has his task cut out. Combating Pakistan sponsored cross border terrorism and keeping a check on home grown militant modules like the Indian Mujahideen is a top priority. On the eastern border, we need a strong policy to counter repeated Chinese incursions into Indian territory. At the same time, it is imperative that we develop our infrastructure along the Indo-China border so as to enable quick deployment of troops and weapons in case of a war. There is an urgent need to revamp the Indian Navy which seems to in urgent need of attention. Modernizing our military capabilities, FDI in Defence, stimulating the growth arms producing firms in India, improving co-ordination between the three commands and a good work life balance for our soldiers are other issues which will figure high in his priority list. For a politician who has worked largely within the state of Goa, handling the defence minister will be the biggest challenge of his political career so far. The PM has showed tremendous confidence by calling him to the Centre, by-passing other senior leaders including Murli Manohar Joshi, Nitin Gadkari, Venkaiyya Naidu and Uma Bharati. If he can justify Modi's faith in him, he will surely be rewarded with more such prestigious offers in the future.

As Manohar Parrikar settles into his new job, I wish him all the best. Hope that he makes the country and Goa proud!

AKHADA - Part IV

THE RESULTS

In a state where the BJP had won just four seats in 2009, its tally of 47 five years down the line is simply remarkable, especially considering the fact that the saffronists never had a recognizable face in Haryana and its organization here was virtually absent in most of the places till sometime back. However, the elevation of Narendra Modi and his many rallies in various parts of the state seemed to have stuck a chord with the voters. The Congress on the other hand was virtually wiped out; the party which was in power for a decade was relegated to the third position. The INLD whose top brass is in jail in the multi-crore recruitment scam too failed to make a comeback as the NaMo bandwagon swept it aside. Kuldep Bishnoi who was nurturing hopes of becoming the next CM of the state paid a heavy price for breaking off ties with the BJP as his party - the HJC managed to bag just two seats.

The BJP's victory in the Haryana 2014 state polls is simply astounding, perhaps even more impressive than its performance in Maharashtra. The party leveraged the anti-incumbency and the corruption allegations against the Congress and the INLD to its advantage. Of course, the image of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi did play a key role in the numbers that the saffron camp got. Besides, an exodus of leaders from these two parties helped it consolidate the non-Jat votes in the states. Moreover, its decision to cut off all ties with Kuldeep Bishnoi in spite of an understanding with him prior to the 2014 General Polls also proved to be a right decision. Massive infighting and the various allegations of corruption against the Hooda regime saw the Congress drop 25 seats. The INLD too suffered a severe low as the Chautala failed to win especially in the non-Jat regions of the state. Meanwhile, Kuldeep Bishnoi had a horrid time; his decision to refuse the BJP's offer of 25 seats was a blunder with his party ending up with just two seats.

Again, the biggest winner out of this is BJP President Amit Shah. The very fact that the party won a simple majority in a state where it lacked even basic organizational setting till a few months ago speaks volumes of his ability. With the wins in Maharashtra and Haryana under his belt, Modi's Man Friday has shut all his detractors both within the party and outside, who had questioned his strategy during the by-elections. Also, the victory is also a big thumbs up to PM Narendra Modi and the work he has done so far during his tenure. The election defeat could signal the end of road for former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda. In spit of the growing clamor against him from the likes of Kumari Selja and ABC, the high command had kept its faith in the Jat leader. However, following such a disastrous defeat, he may find it hard to stage a comeback in the near future. The Chautalas and their party, the INLD too flopped as the results have shown. Even Dushyant Chautala lost from the family bastion of Uchana Kalan. Winding up the list is Kuldeep Bishnoi. The HJC chief who dreamed of becoming the next CM of the state could only win two seats, a decline of 4 from the 2009 state elections.

For more posts on the Haryana 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)

The Chart displaying the results was created on Meta-Chart (Link)

MAHASANGRAM - PART V

THE RESULTS

For the BJP, the year 2014 continues to be perhaps, the best year in its three decade long history, that is, if we choose to overlook the setbacks in the by-elections (Link). The saffron outfit created history as it emerged as the single largest party in Maharashtra in spite of bitter fallout with its oldest ally - the Shiv Sena (SS). After the break-up of the two major alliances in the western state, nobody would have anticipated that the BJP could put up such an impressive show, so what if it failed to cross the half-way mark on its own considering that it was a five sided contest. The Shiv Sena did well to win nearly 20 seats more than in 2009 but the performance was far from satisfactory. The Congress and the NCP who had jointly ruled here for three consecutive terms had to face the heat. However, the numbers that they got were better than those in the General Polls fought in May. The MNS was obliterated, quite literally.

The wave of anti-incumbency against the Congress-NCP combine, the numerous corruption allegations against the leaders of the two parties and the image of the PM Narendra Modi seem to have helped the BJP in registering an impressive tally of 123 seats, its best figures in the state so far. There were rumors if the party had not done the right thing by pulling the plug on its alliance with the Shiv Sena, considering that it did not have a solid base in rural Maharashtra. However, the Modi wave worked in its favor; it managed to woo several leaders from the ruling combine on to its side besides holding on to its alliances with several smaller outfits. On the other hand, its former partner, the Shiv Sena was dealt a rude shock. Its 'Uttha' campaign failed as it finished a distant second, winning almost half the number of seats that the BJP bagged. The death of Balasaheb and the rise of Modi prevented it from winning a major share of the anti-government vote. Meanwhile, the Congress should be happy that in spite of winning just 2 seats in the parliamentary polls, it got 42 seats in the state. The NCP was saved the blushes as it managed to do well in its bastion of western Maharashtra and finished with a tally of 41 seats. Raj Thackeray's MNS was decimated; the party dropped 12 seats to end with just one seat. Owaisi's AIMIM and the PWPI (Peasant's and Worker's Party of India) won two seats each.

Perhaps, the biggest winner in the Maharashtra 2014 state polls is the party president Amit Shah. Questions were being raised about his leadership after the BJP's polarized campaign in the UP by-elections failed to get the seats. However, the resounding victory in the western state even after the break-up with the Sena has made the former Gujarat Home Minister the second most influential leader in the saffron camp behind Modi. The results are a big thumbs up to PM Narendra Modi too. He addressed as many as 26 rallies in the state, tearing into the Congress and the NCP while refraining from attacking the SS out of respect for late Balasaheb Thackeray. Five months into office, the Modi waves is fast transforming into a 'tsunami'.

The losers, on the other hand are many. With just 60 odd seats, the Shiv Sena has to reconcile to the fact that it is no more the bigger player in the 'saffron alliance' if it ever joins hands with the BJP in the future. The fact that the party could not even cross the 70 mark even after being in opposition for the last 15 years shows that the SS is on the decline and that Uddhav Thackeray & Co need to introspect to identify the many factors that are ailing the regional outfit. The decimation of the of Raj Thackeray and his MNS is another highlight of the polls. After scoring a blank in the General Elections earlier this year and being reduced to a single seat in the state assembly, many have even begun to write the political obituary of Raj and his party. The Congress too has been forced to eat the humble pie, yet again. Rahul Gandhi's six rallies in the state have not helped the party at all and it seems that the grand old party has nothing to combat the NaMo bandwagon. Moreover, the NCP which was the second largest constituent of the UPA has called off its alliance with the INC. And 2014 continues to bring more miseries upon the Pawars and the NCP. After the hammering in the big polls, the party managed to win just 41 seats in the state.

For more posts in this series: Mahasangram (Link)

The Chart displaying the results was created on Meta-Chart (Link)

ANALYZING THE BY-ELECTIONS

FOUR LESSONS THAT THE BY-POLLS TEACH US

Wow! Who could have predicted this? Less than four months after that landslide victory in favor of the BJP, not many of us would have thought that the results of the by-polls could be so different. As if the 3-0 rout at the hands of the Congress in Uttarakhand was not enough, the defeat in Bihar and the decimation in Uttar Pradesh have put a question mark over the perception that the BJP would make inroads into hitherto unknown lands, riding on Modi Mania. At the same time, the regional players, most of which were obliterated in the General Elections put up a good show, laying to rest 'fears' that the country was heading towards a two-party rule. Besides, the Congress too showed signs of improvement; the 120 odd year old party does have a future in our democracy. Analyzing the results from 14 states that have seen snap polls, here the four key takeaways from the August-September 2014 by-polls.

May 2014 was a victory for Modi, not for the BJP: I remember this one episode during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls when former BJP president Rajnath Singh had to change one of his tweets from 'Abki bar BJP Sarkar' to 'Abki bar Modi Sarkar'. Psephologists and political observers have for months debated whether the magical numbers that the saffron camp got in the General Elections was an endorsement of Modi or a vote for his party or a combination of both. I believe that the by-polls has settled this debate. Nothing else can explain why the BJP fared so badly in the by-elections in spite of that superlative performance it registered less than 150 days ago. There is no doubt that even without Modi the NDA would finish as the largest alliance after the big polls; however, there was no way that it could cross the 200 mark, forget 342. Modi's excellent oratory skills, his charisma an his portrayal as a 'pro-development' leader helped his party move from the Opposition benches to the Treasury benches in the Parliament. Thus the saffron camp was right in breaking ties with Nitish and suppressing the anti-Moi camp lead by Advani.

The Satraps strike back: For all those who wrote the obituaries of the likes of Mulayum, Mayawati, Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar in the aftermath of the May elections, the results of the by-polls have proved the satraps still have a future in the politics of the country, so what if it is not as bright as it was some time back. Bihar witnessed political churning with Lalu's RJD joining hands with Nitish Kumar's JD(U) and the INC to take on the NDA. The Mega-alliance helped the Manjhi government to survive the test on the floor of the state assembly and then went on to beat the NDA 6-4 in the ten constituencies where elections were held in August this year. In neighboring Uttar Pradesh, the ruling Samajwadi Party performed out of its skin to wrests as many as eight seats from the saffron camp. This in spite of the fact that the BJP tried to cash in on communal tensions that have gripped the western parts of UP over the last year.

The revival of the Congress: After being reduced to mere 44 seats in May which saw many of its stalwarts biting the dust, the results of the by-polls have enthused a bit of life in the grand old party which many believe was in its last leg. The rot in the organizational structure is still there and its present leadership is insipid. But a string of rather unexpected victories over its arch rival is what the doctor prescribed the INC ahead of the state polls scheduled later this year. In the hill state of Uttarakhand where in the incumbent regime was looking shaky after the defection of Satpal Maharaj to the BJP ahead of the May elections, the party won swept won all the three seats. In Rajasthan where it was literally bulldozed by the saffronists, first in 2013 and May 2014, the INC bagged three out of the four seats. Similarly, in Karnataka, Gujarat and MP, it managed to bag constituencies held by the BJP. The Congress needs to make sure that the momentum is taken forward; At the same time, it is important to address issues that are plaguing the party and address them at the earliest.

The fight for the states is heating up: After that stupendous win, there were many who felt that the BJP, riding high on its success, would sweep the four states that will see polls being conducted in the near future. In fact, in all these states, the saffron outfit put up an impressive show - the NDA won 42 of the 48 seats in Maharashtra; seven of its 10 candidates were elected in Haryana; it created history and swept Jammu while painting the national capital in orange. As such, it was expected that the party would not find it difficult to win all of these states. However, the results of the by-polls has put the BJP on the back foot and has shaken the confidence of its supporters. The break-up of the 25 year old BJP-Shiv Sena alliance has made matters worse in the western state. In Haryana too, the Bishnoi led HJC has pulled the plug on its coalition with the BJP. In Delhi, the AAP's string operation has 'exposed' the party's back door efforts to bag power. Besides, in Jammu Kashmir, the PDP seems to be edging the saffron outfit.

For more on the August-September 2014 By-polls, click here (Link)

WILL BIHAR STOP THE MODI MANIA?

AUGUST BY-POLLS WILL BE THE FIRST REAL TEST OF MODI SARKAR

Courtesy: Times of India

It has been nearly 100 days since Narendra Modi led the BJP to a handsome victory in the May 2014 General Elections. The magnitude of the win was such that a lot was expected from the former Gujarat CM after he shifted his base to New Delhi. With 282 seats in the Lower House of the Parliament, many thought that the new regime would pass certain key reforms since it was free from all sort of 'political compulsions' that the previous Central governments were subjected to by their allies. A look back at Modi's innings so far reveals that his report card has been average so far. On one side, the Centre has taken a firm stand on our Foreign Policy. The recent cancellation of Secretary level talks with Pakistan apart, the invitation to the SAARC Head of States at the time of Modi's swearing in and his visits to Bhutan and Nepal indicate a clear thought process in India's dealings with other nations in the neighborhood, something that the UPA regime hopelessly lacked. His interaction with the soldiers posted in Jammu Kashmir recently too has been appreciated. The markets also have responded well. However, one should also remember that the recent spike in incidents of communal clashes coupled with irresponsible statements made by some in the BJP and the Sangh Parivar has raised doubts about the intentions of Modi Sarkar. Prices of certain essential commodities continue to remain high whereas crime against women have increased to rise in recent months. At this juncture, the by-polls in four states will be a good indication to see if the Modi mania that had gripped the nation at least for the first half of the year continues to remain strong or not. Besides, with the recent realignment of political forces in Bihar, the results of these elections will also have a major impact on the strategies that the parties adopt in the next four months wherein at least four states will go to the polls.

With Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav joining hands, the political equations in the state of Bihar have been completely redrawn. The NDA's superlative performance here in May this year where it won 31 out of the 40 seats has raised serious question mark over the political future of the two former CMs of the state. With the JD-U being reduced to mere two seats, many believed that the Kurmi leader's decision to part ways with the BJP was a political blunder and the move would herald his downfall. Similarly, question marks were being raised about Lalu Yadav's relevance in state politics after the RJD could only bag 5 seats in spite of an alliance with the Congress. Aware of the fact that they had to work together to save their political careers, two of Bihar's biggest politicians dissolved their differences spanning nearly two decades and joined forces to combat a resilient saffron outfit which is looking much stronger following the May results. The Congress too decided to lent its support to the cause of thwarting the Modi bandwagon. In fact, this rather 'unholy' alliance has already won a few skirmishes with the NDA. After the resignation of Nitish Kumar as the CM of the state following the JD-U's rout in the Lok Sabha, the three parties worked together to make sure that the new government under the leadership of Jitan Ram Manjhi would survive the test on the floor of the state assembly. Moreover, the allies also fought the elections to the Upper House of the Parliament together and won.

With ten seats namely Narkatiaganj, Rajnagar, Jale, Chapra, Hajipur, Mohiuddinagar, Parbatta, Bhagalpur Banka and Mohania on the line, the Bihar by-polls will for sure be as intensely fought as the General Elections three months ago. In fact, the bearing that the results may have on the political scenario of Bihar is unprecedented, considering the fact that the state is scheduled to go to polls next year. Firstly, having jumped into the electoral fray together, the results will indicate if the masses have given their consent to the JD(U)-RJD combine. If the two new partners do well, they would contemplate continuing the alliance in the next state assembly elections too. On the other hand, a flop show would put serious question mark over the future of this partnership. Actually, several leaders in the JD-U have already hit out at Nitish for sealing the deal with the same party which he had earlier accused of hampering the growth of the state when it was in power. Similarly, the by-polls will also be an acid test for saffron leader Sushil Kumar Modi. With PM Narendra Modi not campaigning in the state, the outcome will also prove if the former Home Minister has the mettle and the support base to lead the saffron outfit in 2015. Finally, the victory of the former Kumar and Yadav, that is if it comes true, could also start a new trend in the country wherein regional rivals open up a united front against the BJP. The RJD supremo had already asked Mayawatiand Mulayum Singh Yadav to join hands to prevent the rise of the 'Fascist forces' in Lucknow, an idea which was considered by the SP chief but flatly rejected by Behenji. A good showing by the 'Mandal forces' may force the Dalit icon to rethink her decision.

Down south, in Karnataka, it is the Congress which is on the back foot. After registering a massive victory in the 2013 elections to the Vidhan Soudha when it swept away all the Opposition, the INC was delivered a rude shock as the BJP, now reinforced with the merger of the KJP and the BSR Congress into it, won nearly twice as many seats as the grand old party. The victory of former CM B S Yeddyurappa from Shimoga and his former cabinet colleague B S Sriramalu from Bellary has necessitated polls in the Shikaripura and Bellary(Rural) respectively. The third seat - Chikkodi-Sadalga was won by the Congress candidate Prakash Hukkeri who too made the cut to the Lok Sabha. The by-elections have become a prestige issue for CM Siddaramaih who has campaigned extensively in the three seats after there were rumors of discontent against him within the party. Though he may enjoy the complete faith of president Sonia Gandhi, he would prefer to silence his critics within the Congress ranks. With the Deve Gowda led JD-S refusing to field any candidates citing paucity of funds, the fight is between the two major national parties. Having been made the party's national vice president few days ago, it remains to be seen if the former KJP chief could pass on the electoral baton to his son B S Raghavendra who is contesting the polls as a BJP candidate. Likewise, the saffron nominee from Bellary is Sriramalu aide Obalesh. Besides the incumbent CM, the by-polls are also important for the two saffron leaders.

Like Siddaramaih, Punjab CM Parkash Singh Badal too is jittery ahead of the by-elections to the seats of Talwandi-Salboo and Patiala. If the results of the General Elections are anything to go by, the Akalis are certainly going to have a tough time in winning the two seats. If there was one party in the NDA which will be disappointed after the May 16 results, it has to be the SAD. Strong anti-incumbency against the Punjab government was the reason that the NDA could only win six of the 13 parliamentary seats from the north-western state. In fact, after the defeat of the Finance minister Arun Jaitley from Amritsar, Akali leader Naresh Gujral was frank enough to admit that the DDCA chief was paying the price for the failure of the incumbent regime. Meanwhile, the resignation of former CM Captain Amarinder Singh from the Patiala constituency following his victory over Jaitley and the defection of Talwandi-Sabo MLA Jeet Mohinder Singh to the SAD camp has resulted in the by-polls for the two constituencies. For both, the Badals as well as the Congress, a victory will be more of a morale booster since the incumbent regime has the necessary numbers on its side. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) which surprised everyone by bagging four parliamentary seats here will be the one to watch out for. It remains to be seen if the recent turmoil within the AAP will harm its chances in the only state where it is presently strong.

Lastly, elections will also be held for three seats - Vijayraghavgarh, Bahoriband and Agar in Madhya Pradesh. After sweeping the state late last year and winning a large majority of seats in the parliamentary polls, the saffron outfit is expected to bag all three seats. However, the multi-crore entrance scam came in the limelight has become a major embarrassment for MP CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan and his party. After filing a defamation case against Congress spokesperson K K Mishra is looking to extract revenge on the INC which is using this as an issue to make a comeback. And what better way to do this than winning these by-polls. As if the allegations from the Opposition benches were not enough, Union Minister and Shivraj's rival within the saffron camp - Uma Bharati too had demanded a probe into the entire fiasco. All these things apart, the BJP is expected to win all of these constituencies like it did in the last state elections. Meanwhile, the results of the by-elections in MP and other states will be out on 25^th August.

For more on the August-September 2014 By-polls, click here (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Times of India
Original: Times of India - Regrouped Lalu, Nitish take on BJP in Bihar bypoll today (Link)

NEW PRESIDENT, NEW CHALLENGES

CHALLENGES BEFORE AMIT SHAH AS HE IS APPOINTED BJP PRESIDENT

Courtesy: In.Com

Indeed the BJP fought hard and won a memorable victory in the 2014 General Elections. After being out of power at the Centre for a decade, the saffron outfit made a strong comeback; in fact with 282 seats, it registered the best tally for a single party in the last three decades. A large credit for this splendid performance should rightly go to PM Narendra Modi; the former Gujarat CM used his 'no nonsense, pro-development' image to the full advantage; first he re-energized the cadre and then projected himself as the only viable alternative to a nation that was simmering with anti-incumbency and waiting for an opportunity to teach the 'corrupt' Congress a lesson that it is unlikely to forget soon. Of course while the victory was a collective effort on the part of the saffron party, rather the NDA and the entire Sangh Parivar, one of the heroes of this victory is Modi's trusted lieutenant and former minister in Gujarat cabinet - Amit Shah.

The controversial politician who was even jailed briefly for his alleged involvement in the Sohrabuddin 'fake' encounter case was deputed by Modi to Uttar Pradesh as soon as he was appointed as the head of the BJP's campaign team for the big polls last year (Link). And boy, the move proved to be a master stroke, isn't it? In about an year that he spent in the 'mother of all states', Shah used his political acumen to completely re-organize the local party structure; he cut anti-Modi elements within the saffron camp like Vinay Katiyar to size, entered into alliances with smaller outfits and social organizations, gave 'provocative' speeches (Link) and even chose candidates. His hard work paid off; the BJP and its partner - the Apna Dal (AD) won 73 of the 80 seats from Uttar Pradesh even bettering its previous best tally of 50 odd seats at the height of the Ram Janma Bhoomi agitation way back in 1991 (Link). As such, after former President Rajnath Singh was sworn in as the Home Minister in the Modi cabinet, there were no surprises as the master strategist was appointed as the president of the BJP earlier this week.

Hailed by many, especially in the Hindu right wing as a modern day Chanakya, Shah has been rewarded for the brilliant result that he got for the party in the big state. Winning over 90 percent of the total seats in a vast and diverse state like UP wherein voting patterns are massively influenced by factors like caste and religion is no small task. Now let me throw in some statics that will help you comprehend the magnitude of Amit Shah's achievements. The BJP in UP won more seats than what the UPA won across the country. Of the seven seats that the NDA did not bag here, five went to the Yadavs and two to the Gandhis. I understand that certain segments do have strong reservations against him, especially considering his alleged role in 'communal' activities in the past. However, rather sadly, the standards in our politics are so low that it is very difficult to find politicians with a 'clean' image. Moreover, knowing that the new PM likes to work with people close to him, there is little doubt that the appointment has his blessings too. After all, the two have been close since the early 80s when they worked as pracharaks for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

Politics is tough business and there is no time to rest on past laurels. And probably few know it more than Amit Shah. Though results of the General Polls may still be fresh in the minds of BJP leaders and its supporters, the Gujarati leader knows that his work is cut out. While the saffron outfit and its allies may have a big majority in the Lok Sabha, the government is still far away from the halfway mark in the Upper House. This makes the upcoming state elections extremely crucial, after all a vast majority of the members here are elected by members of the state legislature. In the next six months, at least three states - Maharashtra (Link), Haryana (Link) and Jammu Kashmir (Link) will go to the polls. One has to remember that all three are presently being ruled by the Congress and its allies. Amongst them, the three account for 28 of the 250 seats in the Rajya Sabha. To add to them, there are a few other states that may see snap polls anytime soon. The Delhi assembly has been in suspended animation for over eight months (Link); the Uttarakhand government is looking shaky after the defection of Pauri MP Satpal Maharaj to the saffron side after being side-lined in the Congress for long (Link); the JMM-INC alliance in Jharkhand is on a sticky wicket and the drubbing that the allies got in the General Elections has made the matters worse. Shah has to make sure that the momentum from the General Polls is taken forward and the party and its coalition partners win each of these states.

Another thing at the top of Shah's priority list is expansion in the East and the South where the party has largely been an insignificant player. In fact, the new president has made this pretty clear via twitter a few days after settling in his new role. A hallmark of the saffron outfit's stupendous victory earlier this year was that the BJP did extremely well even outside its traditional base in the Hindi heart land. While we all know that Modi magic played a key role in this, it is up to Shah & Co. to make sure that this win helps them carve out a solid vote bank for the BJP outside its 'comfort zone'. After winning all three parliamentary seats in Jammu and Ladakh regions of J&K, the saffronists are expected to at least double its last tally of 11 seats in the state assembly which will make it a sought after ally for the Mufti-led PDP in case of a hung assembly. The rout faced by the Left Front in Bengal (Link) and Kerala (Link), plus the improvement in BJP's vote share here has given a big fillip to the local party organization. In the coming years, one should not be surprised if these two states feature high in the party's future plans. In Tamil Nadu too, the outfit's ability to put together a rainbow alliance (Link) and then win the Kannyakumari parliamentary seat has shown that it is carving out a space for itself in state politics. Surely, this is an opening that Shah would like to capitalize on. The good will earned in Telangana (Link) over the BJP's support to the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh can be leveraged to its advantage and you can bet that this will surely be a part of the new president's agenda. On similar terms, the good show put up by the BJP in Haryana, Assam (Link) and Arunachal Pradesh (Link) in the last General Elections provides a golden opportunity for Shah to consolidate the saffron party's position here too.

While the margin of BJP's victory may undermine the role played by its allies in 2014, one has to realize that the BJP cannot afford to break its friendship with any of its existing 20 odd partners. Although the Modi mania worked in the General Elections, there is no doubt that the allies (Link) are important in state elections. Moreover, retaining existing friends and looking out for new ones will only further isolate its nemesis - the Congress. With the Maharashtra elections just around the corner, all is certainly not well between the BJP and its oldest ally - the Shiv Sena (SS). There were rumors that the local BJP leaders wanted the high command to scrap its existing seat sharing arrangement with the SS with some even suggesting a tie-up with Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). The new president has to make sure that its 'Mahayuti' that swept the western state earlier this year remains intact and all differences with Uddhav Thackeray's outfit are sorted out at the earliest. Also, greater co-ordination is required with Paswan's LJP after the consolidation of anti-BJP block - the JD(U), the RJD and the Congress considering that Bihar assembly completes it term next year. Also, it is in the interest of the saffron camp if the half rainbow alliance in Tamil Nadu is intact, at least till it can get AIADMK in the NDA, which in itself is an arduous task. Also, it is extremely crucial to have at least working relation with other big regional players including K Chandrashekar Rao's TRS, Jaganmohan Redddy's YSRCP, Mufti's PDP and Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF.

Challenge Number 4 will be pacifying the seniors who were unhappy with Modi and Rajnath Singh for not considering their views during the course of the 2014 polls. Now that the BJP is back in the government after a gap of 10 years with that record shattering win, it will be a good for the party if Shah manages to placate the old guard. With his vast experience in Indian politics and in the functioning of the government, Lal Krishna Advani or Murali Manohar Joshi are assets that the outfit cannot afford to sideline. Also their connections with other political parties can prove to be helpful to break deadlocks in the Parliament. Meanwhile, there were reports that Jaswant Singh was keen to rejoin the saffron camp after his rebellion against the party in Barmer ended in a flop show. Getting Jaswant and his son - MLA Manvendra will send the right signal. We all know that popular southern movie star Pawan Kalyan played a key role in the TDP-BJP aliance's victory in the state as well as parliamentary polls. If the new president can somehow manage to get Pawan to merge his Jan Sena into the saffron fold, the party will be furthered strengthened in Andhra. Also Kalyan's mass appeal will help to reduce its dependence on Chandrababu Naidu. Besides, like Narendra Modi did a few months back, Shah should make an attempt to get back former BJP leader Babulal Marandi (Link) back into the party. Though he had rejected Modi's offer earlier, the rout his party faced will certainly force the JVM chief to reconsider his decision. Also, ahead of the Jharkhand assembly polls, it will further improve BJP's electoral prospects.

In the big win that the BJP won this summer, it is easy to forget that the party won just 31 percent of the total votes. In other words, considering that the NDA as a whole got about 40 percent of the votes, every 6 out of 10 Indians did not cast their vote in favor of Modi. The learning that Shah can draw from this is that in spite of being the largest political party in India in terms of numbers, the BJP is still not acceptable to many Indians. There are many who continue to associate the outfit with right wing fundamentalism, accusing it to be a party of 'Hindus' in general and 'upper castes' in particular. This also keeps a sizable chunk of the political spectrum from doing any business with the party. It will indeed be interesting to see how the Gujarati leader combats this 'perception'. Though it is good to promote 'meritocracy', Shah has to be more practical. Considering our diversity in terms of religion, caste and gender while taking decision, especially during ticket distribution will help. Another worry for many 'liberals' is that the party will be under pressure from its 'bosses' in Nagpur to promote the agenda of the RSS. Again, it is but imperative for Shah to let the RSS top brass know that it is under no obligation of either the RSS or any right wing organization like the VHP or the Bajrang Dal. Measures such has increasing the representation fo women inside the party and promoting internal democracy will also do a whole lot of good for the saffron outfit.

Born into a middle class Gujarati family in Mumbai, Amit Shah has climbed up the ladder of success only through his hard work and dedication. A Modi loyalist since the early 80s, he has excelled in every challenge that has been thrown at him be it the decimation of the Congress hold in rural Gujarat, turning around the fortunes of the Ahmedabad District Co-opertaive Bank or leading the party to an emphatic win in UP. While he has been rewarded for the results that he got for his party, heading the BJP will truly be a test of character for Modi's Man Friday. All his actions will be scrutinized and controversies will be created where none exists. Will he succeed in his latest assignment..... Well, only time will tell!

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: In.Com
Original: Amit Shah Photos (Link)