PILOT HITS TURBULENCE

GEHLOT CATCHES SACHIN ON A STICKY WICKET

Sachin Pilot - Courtesy: Face Book

Last week, former Rajasthan Deputy CM Sachin Pilot hit the headlines as he along with his band of loyalists shifted base to BJP ruled Haryana in revolt against his bête noire - CM Ashok Gehlot. Though there have been reports of his differences with Gehlot ever since the Congress came to power in the state in 2018, it seems that police summons to the young leader from Tonk, asking him to join investigation in a probe related to alleged efforts on parts of the BJP to topple the government seemed to have been the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back. As talks to resolve the crisis failed to achieve any success, in spite of involvement of the Gandhi siblings, the Congress decided to take action.

Not only was he stripped off his position as the state's Deputy CM and the chief of the Rajasthan Pradesh Congress Committee (RPCC), Sachin and the 18 MLAs who came out in his support were served notices for disqualification under the anti-defection law which was later challenged by them in the Rajasthan High Court; in a relief, the court has directed the Speaker of the state assembly to wait till it delivers its judgement in the case on Monday. With Ashok Gehlot consolidating his position and upping the ante against the rebels, it seems that doors within the grand old party are finally shutting on party's former blue-eyed boy in the dessert state. Aware that numbers are not on their side and the factional feud within, the BJP has not expressed much interest in the affair, at least for the time being though its sympathies seem to be completely with Pilot Jr. as seen in the way the rebel MLAs were protected when a team from Rajasthan police reached Thanesar to grill them.

Ashok Gehlot - The Chanakya of Rajasthan politics: For over three decades, the incumbent CM has been the face of the party in the state and Sachin Pilot is just the latest of the many detractors he has taken on in his illustrious career. Serving as a Union Minister under Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi and Narasimha Rao, the leader from Jodhpur first took over the reins of the state in 1998, when the INC bagged 153 seats against the BJP led by Bhairon Singh Shekawat. This in spite of the fact that the party campaign was led by Jat leader and Gehlot's mentor Parasram Maderna, who was later made the Speaker in the state assembly. In what seemed like an action replay, the Sadarpur MLA later beat his rival C P Joshi to became the CM again in 2008 though it was the latter who was the party's face in its electoral campaign. Back then, what made matters difficult for Joshi, currently serving as the Speaker was that he lost from his constituency Nathdwara by a single vote. Ditto in 2018; while the INC won the mandate under Pilot's leadership, he had to contend with being second in command to Gehlot who is not only a close confidante of Sonia Gandhi but also enjoys an enormous clout within the state Congress unit.

A close analysis of Gehlot's moves in the last few months indicate that he left Pilot with no option but to rebel. At the onset of 2020, he convinced six MLAs from Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) to join the Congress, thereby increasing the party's tally to 107. After being able to keep the party flock together in the recently concluded Rajya Sabha polls, he decided to take on Pilot who had been critical of the state government, especially after the Congress drew a blank in the 2019 General Elections in Rajasthan. A probe was set up to look into allegedly efforts made by the BJP to topple the state government in collusion with some Congress leaders, though it was very clear who the target was, when the former Deputy CM was asked to appear before the police. When the news of Sachin's rebellion became public, the CM began wooing the two MLAs of the local outfit Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) to bolster his numbers. While the party's central leadership was working on a rapprochement between two of their tallest leaders in the state, Gehlot went on the offensive, accusing Sachin of being hand-in-gloves with the BJP to bring the government down. This was seen by many as a conscious effort on part of Gehlot to make Pilot's ghar wapsi impossible, thereby cementing his position as the sole leader of the INC in Rajasthan.

What next for Pilot? While Sachin Pilot's association with the Congress seems to be all but over, the suspense over his political future continues to deepen with each passing day. The former Minister of Corporate Affairs has denied all reports of him joining the BJP though the saffron camp has extended tacit support to him.

To begin with, it looks like the Tonk MLA miscalculated his strength within the party. With Rahul Gandhi stepping down from the post of the INC President, there has been a steady decline in the political fortunes of the young brigade seen to be close to him. Sachin only joins a growing list of Congress leaders including Jitin Prasad, Milind Deora, Navjyot Singh Sidhu etc who have been sidelined with the resurgence of the old guard after the debacle in 2019 General Elections. Coming back to Rajasthan, not only did Pilot walk into the trap that Gehlot seems to have been setting for him, he also seems to have over estimated his strength within the Congress Legislative Party in the state. With only 18 MLAs joining him in his rebellion and the BJP having its own set of problems to deal with, Gehlot seems to be set to occupy the CM's chair for some more time.

Considering that he enjoys substantial political power in the Ajmer region, Sachin Pilot may even launch his own regional outfit in his bid to fight Gehlot though the electorate has not been keen on voting for a non-BJP, non-Congress government in Jaipur. Prior to the 2018 state elections, BJP leader Ghanshyam Tiwari who had been a vocal critic of then then CM Vasundhara Raje floated his own outfit - Bharatiya Vahini Party (BVP) to offer a third alternative to the people. The Brahmin leader failed to win a singe seat and merged his party into the Congress last year. Nagaur strongman Hanuman Beniwal fared a little better, winning three seats though his Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) is a part of the NDA today. Similar attempts made by political heavyweights including Kirodi Lal Meena, Devi Singh Bhati and Lokendra Singh Kalvi have been rejected by the electorate. Will Sachin succeed where these men failed is something to be seen.

Meanwhile, it is believed that former CM and BJP leader Vasundhara Raje is not very keen in bringing the young leader into the saffron fold. Moreover, Pilot too may not be comfortable with joining the BJP; after all, his former colleagues like Jyotiraditya Scinda and Hemanta Biswa Sarma who left the Congress to be in the saffron fold have not been able to lead the BJP in their states, something that Sachin is eager to do.

Though he may have been out smarted by the wily Gehlot, age though is firmly on Sachin Pilot's side. At 43, he still has a long way to go. Besides, he comes from an illustrious family and there is still a lot of good will for his father Rajesh Pilot who died tragically in a car crash in 2000. It is expected that for the time being, Sachin will wait and watch out for disgruntled Congress MLAs who might be willing to join him in his rebellion so that he can pull the plug on the Gehlot government before either launching his own party or joining the BJP prior to the next state polls.

The Internal Mess Within the BJP: While it is true that the numbers may not be with them, the lethargy on the part of the BJP's top leadership in Rajasthan to even come out openly in support of Pilot shows the fissures that run deep within the saffron camp in the state. It is fact that for sometime now, former CM Vasundhara Raje Scindia has been miffed with attempts to sideline her within the party though she enjoys the support of over 30 party MLAs. In fact, her absence at the pro CAA rally organized at Jodhpur and attended by Home Minister Amit Shah was seen by many as her symbolic protest against the treatment meted out to her after the party's defeat in 2018 state polls. The appointment of Satish Poonia as the state BJP chief and the elevation of Om Birla as the Speaker of Lok Sabha both seem to have rubbed the former royal in the wrong way since she has not been on good terms with either of them. RLP leader Hanuman Beniwal, an ally of the NDA and a known Raje baiter has questioned her silence on Pilot's rebellion.

Apparently, Raje sees the younger Pilot as a potential threat to her claim to the CM chair's in case the BJP comes back to power in the future. Moreover, she may want her own son Dushyant Singh, four time BJP MP from Jhalawar-Baran constituency to continue her political legacy and may see Pilot as a rival to her son's rise in the saffron ranks. The internal feuds within the Rajasthan BJP, in sharp contrast to the unity it displayed in MP under Shivraj Singh Chauhan and in Karnataka under B S Yeddyurappa has relegated the BJP to be more of a passive player in the whole imbroglio, which just does not fit in the aggressive brand of politics that the saffron outfit has displayed in the Modi-Shah era.

LUCKNOW CALLING

PRIYANKA v/s YOGI in 2022

Priyanka Gandhi - Courtesy: Face Book

Early in the month of July, the Housing Ministry of the Central Government served an order to Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi, cancelling the allotment of the Lodhi Estate house in Delhi, which she has been occupying for last 23 years. As expected, the BJP justified the decision, pointing out that the Gandhis, considered to be the first family of Indian politics, no longer enjoy the Special Protection Guard (SPG) protection after the Act was amended in Dec 2019 to cover only the family members of the incumbent and former PMs. The Congress went out all guns blazing; accusing the Modi government of vendetta politics and calling the move a sustained effort on the part of the Modi-Shah duo to target its top brass personally.

On her part, it seems as though Priyanka was anyway planning to shift out of Delhi with reports suggesting that she was due to move to Lucknow so that she could take her job as the party general secretary in charge of UP more seriously. The outbreak of the Corona pandemic seems to have postponed her plan, till the BJP decided to show the more hardcore elements of its core electorate that it would not go soft on the Gandhis. On the part of the INC, they have decided to milk the situation, accusing the government of witch hunt against the younger Gandhi who has been quite vocal in her criticism of the Yogi regime in Uttar Pradesh, and in the process, earn some sympathy for its High Command which has seen its stocks plummet to a low time low.

Ever since the drubbing it got in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the grand old party, has largely been on the back foot at the center, the imbroglio surrounding Rahul Gandhi’s re-appointment as the President, only making the matters worse. Under these circumstances when the party has not been able to corner the government in spite of its mishandling of the Covid situation in the country and recent clashes at the China border, Priyanka’s decision to shift base to Lucknow and help build the party in India’s most important state is certainly a step in the right direction, for the following reasons:

(1) The Gandhis are serious about UP, finally: Though Uttar Pradesh has been the home turf of the Gandhis, they seem to have some how lost touch with the state, post the Indira Gandhi era. The party has become irrelevant outside the pocket boroughs of Rae Bareli and Amethi, ceding ground, first to the BJP during the Babri Masjid demolition movement and then to the two main regional players – the Mulayum Singh & Akhilesh Yadav led Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Mayawati lead Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP); in fact, in the last national polls, BJP leader Smriti Irani even managed to wrest Amethi from the then Congress President Rahul Gandhi.

With Priyanka being one of the main weapon’s in the Congress’ arsenal for the time being, her impending move to Lucknow is a clear indication that the party means business in UP and will put its entire might to put up a good show in the 2022 state polls.

(2) A complete overhaul of the UP Congress: With the party being out of power in Lucknow since 1989, in many parts of the big state, the Congress cadre is non-existent and most of its one-time big wigs have moved on to rival camps. As seen in the 2017 state elections where it happily agreed to play a junior partner to the SP, it seemed until now that the Congress had given up all hopes, resigning to the fact that it was not a serious contender for UP anymore.

With a Gandhi scion taking hold of the reins of the party in UP, it is expected that Priyanka would usher in a series of much delayed and much needed reforms to stop the rot in the UPCC (Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee) and help rebuild the party organization, from the scratch, quite literally. Moreover, for quite some time now, she had been taking on the Yogi government on its alleged failures to provide good governance to the people. Shifting base to UP, not only gives more vigor to her barbs against the state government but is also expected to enthuse the ordinary Congress karya karta right in time for the state polls, scheduled to be held in 20 months.

In fact, she can take some inspiration from bitter rival Amit Shah who as the head of BJP state unit helped the party and its allies win a staggering 73 out of the 80 seats in the 2014 polls that saw Modi sweep to power while the Congress was reduced to its worst ever tally of 44 seats at the national level. Prior to his arrival in UP, BJP's position in the state was just a little better than what the Congress finds itself in as of now; Shah rebuilt the party, taking lots of tough decisions that ultimately paid off. Congress sympathizers are definitely hoping for such a show from Priyanka.

(3) The Division of Power: Ever since Rahul entered electoral politics, there have been accusations of there being multiple power centers within the Congress that severely curtails its ability to take quick decisions vis-a-vis the BJP where Modi’s diktat reigns supreme. It is known that the Congress is split into two camps, the old timers swearing loyalty to Sonia and the young Turks pledging allegiance to Rahul. Of late, with Priyanka taking a more active interest in politics, many feared that a new third camp may emerge, especially with Rahul finding hard to win elections for the party.

Priyanka’s move to Lucknow and Rahul taking back reins from Sonia will certainly be a step that could clear a lot of the mess regarding decision making in the Congress. Rahul would be free to take decisions at the Centre and concentrate on cornering the Modi government while Priyanka, as his trusted lieutenant can help revive the party fortunes in UP.

Priyanka’s choice of residence in UP’s capital city is laced with all sorts of symbolism; she has decided to move into the vacant house owned by Late Sheila Kaul, the sister-in-law of Jawahar Nehru. What makes the house more special is that it was here that Gandhiji and Nehru had planted a tree together way back in the 1930s. Don’t be surprised if you see Priyanka’s social media feed flooded with images of this tree in the run up to the 2022 state polls in a bid to invoke the Nehru-Gandhi legacy of the Congress.

Overall, Priyanka’s move to Lucknow certainly seems to be a step in the right direction. If she can put her political acumen and charisma to good use, she can put the party on a firm footing in UP, while keeping the Yogi government on tenterhooks. If she can get back the traditional Congress vote banks of Brahmins, Muslims and Dalits that they have lost to BJP, SP and the BSP respectively, then the party can hopefully see a revival of fortunes in the big state. In fact, the Congress should take the gamble, announce Priyanka Gandhi as its CM nominee, thereby raising the stakes. The move may or may not pay off, but then, as they say, ‘Fortune favors the Brave’. It could just be the move that could spark off a Congress revival on India's political landscape.

THE SPOILSPORTS

The Bihar elections has been touted as a two horse race between the incumbent CM Nitish Kumar led 'Grand Alliance' on one side and the Narendra Modi led National Democratic Alliance on the other. With most Opinion Polls predicting a neck to neck contest between the two sides, parties are trying hard to retain their 'traditional' vote banks while hoping to break into those of their rivals. From the development card to caste based politics to evoking religious sentiments, outfits are using every issue under the sun to strike a chord with the electorate and win what is turning out to be the most important polls since the last General Elections. However, with the two coalitions grabbing all the headlines, it is easy to overlook the other smaller parties or formations in the fray; while they may not win many seats, they sure can emerge as 'spoilsports' in their strongholds and at the end tilt the results in the favour of one side. Here is a look at the 'not-so-famous' parties or alliances that could play a crucial role in Bihar 2015. 

The Third Front: A golden rule of Indian politics is that 'You should never mess with Mulayum Singh Yadav'; the wrestler turned former CM of Uttar Pradesh is not known to forgive his detractors so easily. The leaders of the Grand Alliance were made aware of this when the SP supremo not only walked out of the Nitish led front but joined hands with the Pappu Yadav's JAM to float a rival coalition that threatens to wean away some votes that would have otherwise gone to the ruling combination. 

The 'Socialist Secular Morcha' as it is being termed is targeting the powerful Muslim - Yadav vote bank which till about a decade ago was the primary support base of Lalu Yadav. There is no doubt that Samajwadi Party (SP) supremo Mulayum is the tallest Yadav leader in the country and he is expected to wield some influence in western parts of Bihar, mainly in the district bordering UP. Besides, the presence of Pappu Yadav's Jan Adikhar Morcha (JAM) will boost the alliance's chances, particularly in his stronghold of Madhepura. The JAM founder certainly has a point to prove; after being expelled out of the RJD, he would want to make Lalu pay for it. In fact, it is believed that several RJD and JD-U leaders who have been denied tickets by their parties are in talks with the controversial politician ahead of the polls. Former Union Minister Nagamani's Samras Samaj Party (SSP), former Lok Sabha Speaker P A Sangma's Nationalist People's Party (NPP) and former Jhanjharpur MP Devendra Prasad Yadav's Samajwadi Janata Dal - Democratic (SJD-D) too are a part of this combination. 

Of course, it has not been all smooth sailing for this alliance. One of its major constituent - the NCP walked out of the Front citing differences with the SP. Ironcially, NCP leader Tariq Anwar was being projected as the Morcha's CM candidate. 

Nationalist Congress Party: The Sharad Pawar led outfit has certainly made a fool of itself in the Bihar assembly elections. In the beginning it was a part of the Nitih led 'Maha ghatbandhan' but walked out of it after it was given just three seats instead of the 12 that it has asked for. Next, it entered into a pre-poll tie up with the SP and was allocated over 40 seats to contest as a constituent of the Third Front. However, days before the second round of voting, the party snapped all ties with the coalition, accusing Mulayum Singh of being hand in glove with the BJP.  

Kathiar MP and party's Muslim face Tariq Anwar speaking to the media said that his outfit will contest 45 seats alone. The NCP will be a strong contender in the six assembly segments of Kathiar district of Bihar and will again eat into the votes of the Nitish - Lalu alliance. The extent of the damage it causes to the 'secular' parties needs to be seen.

The Left Front: Six Communist parties too are fighting the Bihar polls with the aim of providing a 'viable' alternative to the people as per Communist Party of India (CPI) General Secretary Prakash Karat. The other constituents of the alliance include the CPI-ML, the CPM, the RSP, the Forward Block and the Socialist Union of Communist India - Communist (SUCI-C). The coalition is believed to have substantial base Bhojpur and Beguserai regions of the state but it will be crucial to see if this translates into seats.

All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen: It turns out that all the hullabaloo surrounding Owaisi's debut in Bihar turned out to be a dud. Though he had earlier announced plans of contesting on seats from four districts in the Seemanchal region of the state, in a statement made this past week, the AIMIM chief has said that his outfit will only contest from six assembly seats. This move should come as a big relief for the mega coalition since it was believed that Owaisi could end up splitting the Muslim vote which till sometime back was said to be firmly behind Nitish and Lalu.

Shiv Sena: A partner in the government headed by the BJP in Maharashra, the Uddhav Thackeray led outfit's entry into the fray is likely to affect the chances of some NDA candidates in Bihar. The saffron outfit which is regularly in the news for harassing Bihari migrants in Mumbai is hoping to capitalize on disgruntled BJP leaders to help it open its account in the northern state. Though even opening its account will be a big achievement for the Sena, it could play the spoiler for the NDA on some closely fought seats.

Bahujan Samajwadi Party: Though the Mayawati led party once had representatives in the Bihar state assembly, today the BSP's prospects look bleak. The party on its part is contesting all 243 seats but it will take more than a miracle to even win a single seat. As per the plan, the BSP is targeting the Dalit and women voters to do well in the polls.

Jharkhand Mukhti Morcha: The Shibu Soren led JMM has some support base in parts of southern Bihar with significant tribal populations. The former Jharkhand CM will be banking on these votes to spring a surprise and win a few segments.

P.S: Of late, I have not been regularly updating this blog. Apart from work, the other reason is that I have started a new blog - Raajaniti (Link) dedicated to Indian politics. Henceforth, I will put up posts on this topic on both these blogs. 

Also, I would request you to check out the new blog and please provide your valuable feedback.

JHARKHAND POLLS 2014 - Part II

THE RESULTS

While the Opinion polls had suggested a 50+ tally for the BJP and its allies, the NDA managed to scrape past the half way mark by winning of 42 seats in the 81 member Jharkhand legislative assembly. Nevertheless it was the first time in the fourteen year long history of the state that the electorate here had given a clear mandate to one party or a pre-poll front. The BJP should be disappointed; having won 12 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in May this year and led in about 50 assembly segments, the saffron outfit's sheet is much below the expected mark. On the other hand, the ruling JMM too has reasons to be happy from the verdict; in spite of fighting anti-incumbency, the regional party managed to increase the tally it secured in the 2009 polls by a single seat. The Congress that contested the polls in alliance with the newly created Janta Parivar was routed, quite literally. Babulal Marandi's JVM-P too had its share of highs and lows.

Before, going into the details, here is a look at the final results as published on the ECI website (Link).

 

Sr.	Party Name	Seats
1.	National Democratic Alliance (NDA)	42
a.	- Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	37
b.	- All Jharkhand Student's Union (AJSU)	5
2.	JMM Front	19
a.	- Jharkhand Mukthi Morcha (JMM)	19
3.	United Progressive Alliance (UPA)	06
a.	- Indian National Congress (INC)	06
b.	- Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)	-
c.	- Janata Dal - United (JD-U)	-
4.	JVM-P Front	08
a.	- Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM-P)	08
b.	- Trinamool Congress (TMC)	-
5.	Others	06
a.	- Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)	1
b.	- Communist Party of India - Marxist-Leninist Liberation (CPI-MLL)	1
c.	- Jai Bharat Samanta Party (JBSP)	1
d.	- Jharkhand Party (JP)	1
e.	- Marxist Co-Ordination (MCO)	1
f.	- Navjawan Sangharsh Morcha (NSM)	1

Now coming back to the 'victors'. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) did end up as the single largest party in the state. However, what should worry the saffronists is that they could not go past the 41 mark on their own. After the results in the General Elections, pundits were expecting the party to nearly triple its 2009 tally of eighteen seats. With its ally, the All Jharkhand Student's Union (AJSU) winning 5 of the 8 seats that it fought in alliance with the BJP, the combine is all set to form the next government in Ranchi. The point to note is that in spite of their reasonably 'good' showing, the top leaders of both these outfits had to face defeat in their constituencies. Three time state CM Arjun Munda was beaten by JMM nominee Dasrath Gagrai from Khasran; Gagrai who had contested as a JVM-P candidate in 2009 had given lost a close contest to Munda back then. Meanwhile, AJSU chief Sudesh Mahato who hadd served as the state's Deputy CM too had to bit the dust from Silli constituency. The immediate consequence of this is that it has opened up the race for the CM's chair. Raghuvar Das who won from Jameshedpur - East is believed to be the front runner followed by state BJP unit president Ravindra Rai.

Though his party may have lost power, the outgoing CM and JMM leader Hemant Soren has emerged as a strong regional leader post the elections. Though his father and JMM supremo Shibu Soren may not have campaigned in the polls due to ailing health, he did put up a tough fight. It was only due to his focused campaign that the BJP was not able to go beyond the 50 way mark. On the other hand, there were some reasons for worry for him as well. Though he won from Barbhait, he lost his family stronghold of Dhumka to BJP's Lois Marandi. Also, the party's performance in the Santhal region was below par.

For all those Congressmen who thought that the Jharkhand polls could herald a new chapter in the INC's fortunes, especially after the successive electoral defeats in the last 12 months, their hopes were dashed. The Congress which had forged an alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Janata Dal - United (JD-U) could only manage six seats. Clearly, the move to sever ties with the JMM proved to be a blunder; besides, it also failed to strike a deal with Marandi's JVM-P which has a strong presence in certain pockets in the state. Had the party managed to form a grand alliance and bring the JMM, the JVM-P, RJD and JD-U together, the results could have been dramatically different.

Considering that most of his incumbent MLAs had switched sides prior to the polls, Babulal Marandi must be happy that he still won 8 seats. However, that seems to be the only solace for the state's first CM. Surprisingly, Marandi who is known for his 'clean' lost from both the seats that he contested. He was beaten by CPI-MLL's Rajkumar Yadav in Dhanwar and by BJP's Nirbhay Shabadi in Giridh. Meanwhile, with the BJP-AJSU combine winning a simple majority, he cannot play the role of the 'King-Maker' either. There are strong indications that Marandi's Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM-P) may join the ruling regime. Speculations are rife that the party may also be merged into the BJP.

Amongst the other smaller parties, the biggest shock came in the form of the defeat of former CM Madhu Koda from Majhgaon by JMM's Nial Puty. However, his wife Geeta managed to win the Jagganathpur constituency as a JBSP candidate. Besides, smaller regional outfits like the BSP, the JP and the NSM too bagged a seat each. Two candidates from Leftist parties like the the MCO and the CPI-MLL were also successful.

For long, it has been stated that political instability in the state has been the prime reason for Jharkhand to lag behind in the sphere of development. Illiteracy, malnutrition and poverty index continues to remain extremely high. Left winged extremism has only made the matters worse. Now that the BJP and its allies have got a clear mandate, the onus is on the party to deliver on its pre-poll promises.

For all posts related to the Jharkhand State Polls 2014, click here (Link)

AKHADA - Part I

THE CONTENDERS

The defeat of the BJP in the recently concluded Bihar by-polls (Link) has raised question marks over the Modi wave and if it can help his party do well even in the states where it lacks a strong organizational base. Of course, this might well be true. There is no doubt that in the elections to the assemblies of Jammu Kashmir (Link) and Maharashtra (Link) scheduled later this year, the saffron outfit is going to find it extremely difficult to replicate the superlative figures that it got in the parliamentary polls from here. However, if there is one state post the May results where the party can genuinely fancy its chances, it has to be Haryana. Fighting the elections in alliance with Bishnoi's HJC, the saffronists obliterated the Congress, winning seven out of the eight seats that they contested. Apart from a resurgent BJP which is sensing victory, the Hooda regime is battling massive infighting within the state Congress unit, a cancer which if not cured soon may end up rendering the INC's electoral campaign 'toothless'. With a host of leaders from various political parties hoping on to the saffron bandwagon, the morale in the BJP camp is on an all time high. It is probably because of this that the party has refused to honor the seat sharing arrangement that it had finalized with the HJC, leading to the latter walking out of the NDA. At the same time, with most of the INLD top brass still behind the bars, the regional party is unlikely to be a serious challenger to either of the two national parties that are all set to dominate Haryana politics for some time now.

Trouble for the incumbent CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda started probably in September last year when Narendra Modi addressed a rally of ex-servicemen in Rewari following his anointment as the NDA's official PM candidate. With the Gujarat CM making several trips to Haryana in course of the campaign, his talk of development seems to have convinced at least several Congressmen including four serving MPs that their continued association with the grand old party could jeopardize their political careers. After the INC managed to win just a single seat in the Lok Sabha polls, the skeletons came tumbling out of the closet as many state leaders questioned Hooda's leadership abilities. While leader like Ajay Singh and Kumari Selja had questioned Hooda's leadership, others including Jitender Malik and Jat strongman Bhirender Singh joined the saffron camp. The high command finally seems to have woken up and has taken stock of the situation before it deteriorates further. In a bid to mollify senior leader Ajay Singh who had earlier resigned from the Hooda cabinet, the six time MLA has been put in charge of the party's election campaign committee in Haryana. As if to satisfy the numerous warring factions within its ranks, the seven member panel also includes the CM and his son - Deepak who represents Rohtak in the Parliament. It remains to be seen if the change in leadership could help the Congress in tackling the anti-incumbency in the polls.

As if his defeat to INLD's Dushyant Chautala from the Hisar parliamentary seat was not enough, former CM Bhansi Lal's son and Haryana Janhit Congress (HJP) chief Bishnoi was left red-faced when the BJP flatly refused to concede his demands of 45 seats in the upcoming state elections. According to the agreement between the two parties agreed upon an year back, the HJC and the saffron outfit were to contest half the number of seats each and had agreed to project Kuldeep Bishnoi as the CM candidate of the alliance. With the regional party failing to win either of the two parliamentary seats that it contested in May 2014 and the BJP putting up an impressive show, the saffronists, now bubbling with confidence wanted to re-negotiate terms. As more leaders from various parties joined the BJP, many within the state unit asked the central leadership to take a tougher stance towards Bishnoi and the HJC. With no clear communication over the matter from Amit Shah or the BJP central leadership, Bishnoi broke off the alliance. In fact, he has now joined hands with Venod Sharma's Jan Chetna Party (JCP) and has vowed to teach his former ally a lesson besides defeating the Congress. The JCP chief is the father of Mannu Sharma who was convicted for the killing of Jessica Lal in 1999. Known to be close to Hooda, the Brahmin leader left the Congress earlier this year and launched his new outfit after his attempts of contesting on a NDA ticket for the General Elections was bitterly opposed by senior BJP leaders like Sushma Swaraj.

The once powerful Indian National Lok Dal (INDL) which ruled in Haryana for a full term between 1999 and 2004 has been reduced to a pale shadow of its former glory. The crushing defeat in two consecutive state polls almost broke the morale of the cadre. However, the lethal blow came in early 2013, when a court in New Delhi sentenced Om Prakash Chautala and his son Ajay Chautala to ten years imprisonment for their role in the recruitment scam. With its top leadership tainted, it seemed that the days for the Jat outfit were numbered. As such, it did come as a surprise when the Chautalas went on to win two seats in the recently concluded parliamentary polls. While Om Prakash's grandson Dushyant beat HJC chief Bishnoi, INLD candidate Charanjeet Singh Rori won from Sirsa. Although the regional party seems to be on the rise, it is highly unlikely that it will win more than 10 seats in the state elections. There were reports that outfit was keen on a coalition with the BJP for the upcoming polls and the Akalis too had asked the saffronists to consider this proposal. However, with corruption being an important electoral issue today, any kind of understand with the INLD can potentially backfire.

After a dream debut in the Delhi state polls and a good showing in Punjab in the Lok Sabha elections where it won four seats, the Aam Admi Party (AAP) was expected to emerge as the strongest rival to the ruling Congress's dominance in Haryana. In fact, many believed that senior leader and psephologist Yogendra Yadav would help the Kejriwal led outfit to make significant roads here. However, following the May 16 results, the AAP seems to be in complete disarray. Besides severe infighting, the former Delhi CM's hasty decision of resigning from his chair after being in power for 49 days has certainly led to a perception that Kejriwal & Co can never rise above dharnas and agitations to provide a stable government to the people. Much like the INC, the AAP seems to be fighting the upcoming polls with its back against the wall. On the other end of the political spectrum, former state home minister Gopal Kanda too has floated his own party - the Haryana Lokhit Congress (HLC) after withdrawing his support to the incumbent Hooda government. The prime accused in the murder of air hostess Geetika Sharma, the Sirsa MLA spent several days behind the bars and is presently out on bail. Ironically, the 46 year old has vowed to shake up the entire political establishment in Haryana. Meanwhile, the Bahaujan Samajwadi party (BSP) too has thrown its hat in the ring and has declared former Congress MP Arvind Sharma as its CM candidate.

After winning seven of the eight parliamentary seats that it contested in the state three months ago, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is believed by many to be in the best posiiton to form the next regime in Haryana. For a party that was considered as a minor player in Haryana politics until an year ago, the elevation of Modi and the entry of several high profile candidates from the Congress and the INLD has suddenly transformed the saffron outfit into a major contender for the top spot. So confident is the BJP of doing well that it has literally 'forced' HJC supremo Kuldeep Bishnoi to break ties with it and has also spurned all offers of its former ally, the INLD. However, following the unexpected blow that the NDA suffered in the recently concluded by-polls in Bihar, the party has to be wary. Without a prominent face in the state, the BJP may find it difficult to get the votes. Besides, the joining of several high profile candidates en masse into the saffron camp could lead to factionalism and jeopardize the ticket distribution exercise. All in all, though the BJP is at present the most popular in Haryana, victory in the upcoming state polls is far from guaranteed.


For more posts on the Haryana 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)

UTTAR PRADESH & LOK SABHA 2014

THE BATTLE OF BATTLES

Now we come to the big daddy of all - the state of Uttar Pradesh. Having encompassed the entire country, we can now spend some time analyzing the most populous state of the country. Actually, only five countries in the entire world including India have more people than UP. With 80 parliamentary seats up for grabs, the way to Delhi truly passes via Lucknow. In the past though, we have seen that none of the four major parties here have been able to win a decisive victory as far as the last three Lok Sabha elections are concerned. However, in the last two state elections, the mandate has been clear; while Maya crossed the 200 mark in 2007, Akhilesh did even better two years ago (Link). Now the question is whether any of the four main contenders can do the same in the 2014. After that stunning victory, the SP is confident of a good showing. The Congress and the RLD are hopeful of doing what they did in the last General Elections. Mayawati is keen on a comeback whereas the BJP is hopeful that the Modi wave will help them boost their figures.

ISSUES

(1) Development: While it is India's largest state, UP has lagged behind others like Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu in terms of industrial development. In spite of having extensive natural resources at its disposal, fertile soil and abundant water, majority of people continue to remain poor. One of the biggest reasons for this is has been that the local politics has been dominated by factors like caste and religion. However, this time the BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi has focused his election agenda on the plank of development. Of course this doesn't mean that there has been no caste or communal polarization by the saffron camp. However, the ground reality remains that the people here are keen to usher in development and enjoy fruits of it.

(2) Performance of the Akhilesh Yadav: It has been a little over two years since the young Akhilesh was placed at the helm of affairs in Lucknow. At 39 years old, he was one of the youngest CMs of the country and a lot was expected from him. Probably, the General Elections are the best time to see if the SP leader has been able to win the hearts of the people or not. While his regime has been true to some of its electoral promises made during the campaign, the fact remains that the law and order situation in the state has deteriorated, like in earlier Samajwadi regimes. The failure to prevent the Muzaffarnagar riots and the suspension of upright officer Durga Shakti Nagpal have been blots on the young leader's career so far.

(3) Caste Equations: As mentioned earlier, the caste equations have traditionally dominated the politics in this state since independence. The BSP supremo Mayawati whose famed 'Social Engineering' saw her sweeping the 2007 polls has gone back to the drawing board, hopeful that selection of candidates based on their caste would help her stage a grand come back. Besides, the Dalit votes, she is trying to woo the Brahmins who played a key in her victory seven years ago. The SP is dependent on the support of the Yadavs. The BJP, known as a party of the Upper Castes has roped in the Kurmi outfit - the Apna Dal in its fold.

(4) Communal Polarization: Apart from caste politics, another matter of concern in the big state is communal polarization. This certainly works here as seen during the early nineties when the BJP swept the state, riding on the sentiments following the demolition of the Babri Masjid. The candidature of Narendra Modi has made 'Secularism' a major talking point across the nation, more so in UP which accounts for nearly half of the country's total Muslim population. Moreover, after the Muzaffarnagar riots (Link) in Western UP, communal flares are running high. Amit Shah, whose role in the alleged fake encounters in Gujarat has come under the scanner has been made the head of the BJP's campaign in UP. His visit to the Ram Janmabhoomi and his call to avenge the Muzaffarnagar riots are clearly an attempt to help it win votes on religious lines. SP Muslim face Azam Khan went a step further, claiming that it were 'Muslim' soldiers in the Indian army that won the Kargil war and later even refused to apologize. Congress president Sonia Gandhi met the Shahi Imam Syed Ahmed Bukhari to help consolidate minority votes. Even Mayawati has given many seats to Muslims.

CONTENDERS

(1) Samajwadi Party (SP): There were a lot of expectations as young Akhilesh Yadav was made the CM of UP after he led the party to a handsome victory in the state assembly polls. Two years down the line though, nothing seems to have changed. While his performance has been much better than that of the preceding Mayawati regime, the young Turk's inability to protect the Muslims during the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013 has led to bad press. With his son in Lucknow, daddy Mulayum Singh Yadav is eyeing a bigger role for himself in national politics, having been a founder member of the Third Front (Link). If he does manage to win over 25 seats, he could be the Federal coalition's PM choice. Apart from highlighting their regime's 'development' work, the SP is also hoping to benefit from communal polarization, especially in the aftermath of the riots and the candidature of Narendra Modi. In fact, senior leader and outfit's Muslim face Azam Khan had been banned by the EC from campaigning for flaring up religious sentiments. Also, in a bid to stem the Modi wave, Mulayum has also decided to contest from Azamgarh, besides his traditional seat of Mainpuri. Other candidates include the CM's wife Dimple Yadav (Kannauj) and party supremo's nephews - Akshay Yadav (Firozabad) and Dharmendra Yadav (Badaun).

(2) Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP): For two long years, Behenji has virtually lost her political dominance in the big state to her bete noire - the SP. After that drubbing she got in 2012, the former UP CM is hopeful that the next Lok Sabha would see her making a grand comeback. However, the BSP's campaign has been rather lackluster. It has not been able to project itself as a strong contender here. Even the talks of alliance with the Congress, something that was doing the rounds for some time failed as Mayawati realized from her past experiences that her allies' votes do not go to her outfit. At the same time we need to keep in mind that she just cannot be written off. The Dalit leader may well spring a surprise like she has done in the past. As usual, she has relied on the caste equations to win seats. Her party's candidates include a mix of mix of SCs, STs, Muslims, Thakurs and Brahmins. Prominent amongst these are Akbar Hussain (Rampur), Shah Alam (Azamgarh), Qadir Rana (Muzaffarnagar), Mukul Upadhyaya (Ghaziabad), Satish Awana (Noida), Seema Upadhyaya (Fatehpur Sikri), and Narayan Singh (Agra).

(3) United Progressive Alliance: In 2009, the Congress performed out of its skin to win over 20 seats. This time, though it has the RLD with it, crossing even the 10 mark is going to be extremely difficult. Even former CM and veteran Congress leader Jagdambika Pal has crossed over to the BJP. The INC found itself in the centre of a controversy as its candidate Imran Masood in a video film threatened to cut Modi into pieces. He was later sent to judicial custody in what turned out to be an embarrassment for the party. As brother Rahul faced stiff competition from Smriti Irani and Kumar Vishwas, sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra came to the rescue, campaigning in the pocket boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli. Her war of words with Narendra Modi - the 'Neech Rajneeti' comment and with her cousin Varun provided fodder to the media. The party's nominees include the president Sonia Gandhi (Rae Bareli), her son and vice president Rahul Gandhi (Amethi), former state party president Rita Bahuguna (Lucknow), film stars Raj Babbar (Ghaziabad) and Nagma (Meerut), cricketer Mohammad Kaif (Phoolpur) and ministers - Sri Prakash Jaiswal (Kanpur) and Salman Khurshid (Farrukhabad).

The Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) is fighting the polls in alliance with the Congress. However, the situation for Ajit Singh led party is precarious. The Muzaffarnagar riots have led to a split between the two traditional voters in western UP - the Jats and the Muslims. It is believed that while the former are gravitating towards the BJP, the former may vote for the BSP. The Union government's decision to grant reservation for the Jats may help retain the farmer votes. Also, the party welcomed former SP leader Amar Singh (Link) some time back. Its key candidates include chief Ajit Singh (Baghpat), his son Jayant Chaudhary (Mathura), Amar Singh (Fatehpur Sikri) and his aide Jaya Prada (Rampur).

(4) National Democratic Alliance: For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its Mission 272+ to succeed, it has to win a significant number of parliamentary seats in UP. The saffron camp has come up with a two fold strategy to do well in the state that propelled it on to the national stage. Firstly, the party is banking on Modi's development agenda to strike a chord with the electorate who seem to have been left out of the India growth story. Secondly, for the BJP which came into prominence banking on the Hindutva plank following the demolition of the Babri Masjid, the Muzaffarnagr riots seems to have given it just the kind of the opening that it was looking for. Narendra Modi's close aide Amit Shah was deputed to UP to strengthen the grass root organization and help the party increase its tally. In fact, Shah was gagged by the Election Commission for his revenge remark while campaigning in the communally sensitive Western UP. However, he was let off after he expressed regret for his remark. Another controversy that the party found itself in was the candidature of Modi from Varanasi, a seat represented by senior leader M M Joshi. Though the saffron leader was said to be keen to re-contest from there, he was 'forced' to move to Kanpur. The BJP's candidates include Narendra Modi (Varanasi), Murali Manohar Joshi (Kanpur), Rajnath Singh (Lucknow), Menaka Gandhi (Pilibhit), Varun Gandhi (Sultanpur) and General V K Singh (Ghaziabad).

The Kurmi outfit Apna Dal (AD) has entered into an electoral alliance with the BJP. Party leader Anupriya Patel, who is the daughter of the party founder late Dr. Sonelal Patel will contest from Mirzapur. Meanwhile, Harivansh Singh has been given the ticket from Pratapgarh. The coalition is expected to help the NDA get the support of the Patel community which is strong in some pockets.

(5) Aam Admi Party (AAP): Three of the top AAP leaders are contesting from the big state as the newly launched outfit is planning to make a sensational debut this General Elections. Chief Arvind Kejriwal who resigned as the Delhi CM has filed his nomination from Varanasi against Narendra Modi in what is expected to be the mother of all battles. The kind of support he is getting shows that the temple town along the Ganga is not going to be a cake walk for the Gujarat CM. Poet turned politician Kumar Vishwas has jumped into the fray against another big name - Rahul Gandhi from Amethi. Having come to his constituency nearly three months ago, he is keen to work upon the early bird advantage. Another AAP leader and former journalist Shazia Ilmi is contesting against former Army General V K Singh from Ghaziabad.

PAST PERFORMANCE

In 1996, it was the BJP which swept the state winning as many as 52 seats and the Samajwadis emerged as the second largest party in UP while the Congress and the BSP were reduced to single digits. Two years later, the saffronists ended up with 57 seats, the highest that any party has got in the big state over the last two decades. While the NDA came to power in 1999, its tally here was reduced by half. The SP came in at a close second and the BSP and the INC crossed into the two digit mark. Five years down the line, Mulayum's party reached its zenith, winning 35 seats. Even Maya bagged 19 seats while the BJP's numbers plummeted to just 10, one more than the INC. Finally in 2009, the SP slipped to 23 although it did end up as the largest party in the state. The big surprise was the Congress which bagged 21 seats, one more than the BSP. The BJP cut a sorry figure at 10.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Samajwadi Party (SP)	23	35	26	20	16
Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	20	19	14	4	6
Congress	21	9	10	-	5
Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)	5	3	2	-	-
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	10	10	29	57	52
Others	1	4	4	4	6

(1) There were 85 seats in the state of Uttar Pradesh before the creation of Uttarakhand in 2001.

MY PREDICTIONS

The Modi wave in Uttar Pradesh coupled by some smart decisions made on the ground by Amit Shah will help the BJP and its allies win close to 50 seats. The SP will be the runners up and may win up to 15 seats. The BSP will struggle to cross into two digits whereas the Congress-RLD combine will virtually be wiped out.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	NDA (BJP + AD)	46-50
2	Samajwadi Party (SP)	12-16
3	Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	7-11
4	UPA (Congress + RLD)	3-7
5	Others	0-2

WATCH OUT

(1) A Modi wave in UP? With Amit Shah supervising the party campaign in Uttar Pradesh, many are expecting a Modi wave in UP. The state sends 80 MPs to the Lower House and a good showing here could propel the NDA close to the half way mark. The best showing that the saffronists had here was in 1998 when the BJP under Vajpayee won as many as 57 seats. There is no doubt that Modi's nomination from Varanasi was an effort to help the party's cause in the country's most populous state (Link). The question is whether the saffron camp can replicate that success, especially with the grass root organization being weakened and the star emergence of the two regional players - the SP and the BSP.

(2) Performance of the three regional players and their role in the Third Front: For the Third Front to have any chance whatsoever of coming to power, the regional parties have to do well. In fact with the SP and the BSP chiefs not seeing eye to eye, practically only one of the two i.e. the one which finishes with more seats could be a part of such a confederation. With the SP winning a massive electoral victory in 2012 state polls, Mulayum is expected to do well. The former UP CM like many other regional players is said to be nursing PM ambitions. Mayawati too is keen to make a comeback. After being demolished in 2012, the Dalit ki Beti is hopeful that a 20+ show could help her regain some lost pride. Another small regional player is the RLD. Having been a part of both the NDA and the UPA over the last five years, it would not take much for him to change loyalties and help either of the three major coalitions in case they fall short of numbers in the Parliament.

(3) Can the Congress do a miracle, yet again? In 2009, the Congress did a extremely well, winning as many as 21 seats in UP. Considering that the party's organization has completely eroded here in the past, the performance was incredible. As usual, many Congressmen gave the credit of that spectacular showing to Rahul Gandhi. Of course, that bubble bursted in the 2012 state assembly elections when in spite of heavy campaigning by Baba, the grand old party failed to even cross the 25 mark; in fact, their performance even in the family boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli was bad. Besides, many believed that Varun Gandhi's controversial statement in Pilibhit helped consolidation of the Muslim votes in favor of the INC. Now, in 2014 the Gandhi in the saffron camp has not made any such statement. So the question is whether the Congress can even come to close to that figure in got in the last Lok Sabha polls.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

UTTARAKHAND & LOK SABHA 2014

WHICH WAY WILL THE HILL STATE SWING?

In 2012, the hill state of Uttarakhand witnessed perhaps the closest state elections since the one held in Goa ten years ago (Link). The BJP which was in power brought back B C Khanduri fearful of the numerous corruption allegations against the incumbent CM Pokhriyal. The 'Khanduri hain Zarori' campaign of the saffron party almost worked. On the other hand, the Congress made life difficult for itself thanks to all the infighting amongst its several state leaders. Luckily for it though, it managed to finish with one more seat than the BJP as Khanduri himself lost his from his constituency (Link). The INC did form the government and the party high command hand picked Vijay Bahuguna - the MP from Tehri Garhwal to lead the state. However, the friction amongst state party leaders continued as the CM's son lost the Tehri Garhwal by-polls in 2012. Then came the big blow last years as parts of the state were devastated by cloud burst. With the state government coming under attack from various quarters for its shrody implementation of relief work, the party replaced Bahuguna by Harish Singh Rawat (Link). Will this gamble pay-off or does the BJP hold the edge before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. That is the subject of this post.

ISSUES

(1) The 2013 floods: In June 2013, the state of Uttarakhand received heavy rains causing floods mainly concentrated around the holy town of Kedarnath. The disaster caused mainly due to disregards to environmental issues completely destroyed the holy town and nearly 6000 people are presumed to be dead. The calamity has caused damages worth crores of rupees and has also adversely affected tourism - an important source of livelihood for the people here. The efforts of the state government in rehabilitating people has come under severe criticism. This is expected to be a major poll issue.

(2) Anti-incumbency of UPA II: The disastrous performance of the UPA government is the poll plank of the BJP in the hill state. The saffron outfit is highlighting the short comings of the incumbent government including corruption, price rise and inflation. Besides, the party is also trying to cash in the Modi wave to get the votes.

CONTENDERS

(1) Congress: In 2009, Uttarakhand was one state where the INC white washed the BJP 5-0. Three years later, it managed to scrap through and form the government in Dehradun too. However, after that hard fought win nothing has gone in its favor. The INC is hopeful that the change in regime will somehow work in its favor. However, it was dealt a severe blow when its MP Satpal Maharaj left the INC and joined the saffron camp. In true Congress tradition, the grand old party has given tickets to former CM Bahuguna's son Saket Bahuguna from Tehri Garhwal and incumbent CM's wife Renuka Rawat from Haridwar. Senior state leader Harak Singh Rawat has filed his nomination from Garhwal.

(2) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): Apart from the Modi wave, the saffronists are relying on the anti-incumbency against the ruling regime to work in its favor. With Satpal Maharaj joining it, the cadre are upbeat and are pretty sure to reverse that disastrous defeat of 2009. Three of the party's former CM are in the fray including B C Khanduri (Garhwal), Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank (Haridwar) and Bhagat Singh Koshiyari (Nainital). The incumbent MP from Tehri Garhwal Raj Laxmi who had beaten Saket Bahuguna in the 2012 has been retained.

Others: The Aam Admi Party (AAP) too is contesting the polls and has fielded candidates in at least three seats. The Samajwadi Party (SP) as well as the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) are set to contest the polls from Uttarakhand.

PAST PERFORMANCES

In the first state elections in 2002, it was the Congress which emerged as the clear winner by just crossing the half way mark. In the next legislative polls, it was the saffron outfit that finished as the single largest party with 34 seats and formed the government with the help of the regional players and independents. Two years ago, in a close contest, the INC nearly spoiled its own chances as it scrapped by a resurgent BJP. The UKD has never managed to break big in the state thanks to internal splits and differences between leaders. Meanwhile, in 2009 Lok Sabha, the Congress did a clean sweep whereas the saffron camp won 3 seats in 2004.

	Political Party	2012 SE	2009 LE	2007 SE	2004 LE	2002 SE
1	Congress	32	5	21	1	36
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	31	-	34	3	19
3	Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	3	-	8	-	7
4	Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD)	1	-	3	-	4
5	Others (SP/IND)	3	-	3	1	4

(1) Uttarakhand sends 70 seats to the state legislative assembly.

(2) The state has 5 parliamentary seats.

MY PREDICTIONS

The shoddy implementation of relief work after the 2013 flash floods and general anti-incumbency against the UPA government has put the Congress on the back foot.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Congress	0-1
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	4-5

WATCH OUT

(1) The stability of the Uttarakhand government: Presently, Congress has 33 MLAs in the state assembly whereas the BJP has 30 seats. The INC has taken the support of the UKD and the independents to form the government. However, the defection of Satpal Maharaj to the saffron camp has changed the equation. If the NDA does win the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, you can expect Satpal loyalists to follow their leader into the BJP. It will not take long for either the lone UKD MLA or the independents to change their allegiance. In that situation, one can expect a regime change in Dehradun. You see a lot depends on the results.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

CHHATTISGARH & LOK SABHA 2014

CAN RAMAN SINGH WIN THE STATE FOR MODI?

In December 2013, the incumbent Chhattisgarh CM Ram Singh won a straight third term even as the BJP ended up with an impressive tally of 49 seats (Link). Six months down the line, as the country gears up for the Lok Sabha polls, many are predicting that the BJP will walk away with the majority of the seats from here. As I have written about it earlier, simply winning more seats than the Congress is not enough; for the 'Mission 272+' to succeed, the BJP has to sweep the state, something that it did in 2009 as well as 2004. Though the Congress bagged ten seats less then the saffron outfit in last year's elections, the difference in the vote share of the two parties was less than one percent. The bottom line is that in spite of scripting a famous victory, the results of the General polls in the state of Chhattisgarh is definitely not a forgone conclusion or a cakewalk for the BJP. However, with almost the whole of the grand old party's top brass in the state being killed in the Dharba Maoist attack, the question is whether it has the leaders who can help garner the votes.

ISSUES

Raman Singh's report card: After a third straight victory in the Chhattisgarh state polls, Dr Singh is on a high. Once a municipal councilor from Karwardha, he rose through the ranks to become the CM of the state after the BJP came to power in 2004. As such, he commands a lot of respect amongst the party workers. His Public Distribution Scheme which provides rice at a nominal rate of Rs. 2 per kg has been a big hit and has earned him the name of 'Chawal wale Baba'. Moreover, the use of technology to ensure the proper implementation of this scheme has been appreciated even by the Central regime. Besides, his image as a pro-development man and his impeccable 'secular' credentials have made him the longest serving amongst all the current BJP Chief Ministers in the country, behind Modi. The saffron campaign is likely to revolve around the work done by Dr Raman Singh in the past decade. To add to this, the large turnout at the BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi's rallies here have further strengthened the party's prospects.

The UPA government's report card: While the saffron camp was able to overcome the anti-incumbency in Raipur, unfortunately for the Congress, it will indeed be an uphill tasks to undo the harm caused by the countless failures of the UPA II government in New Delhi. The Manmohan regime failed to deliver on two issues that have become the talking point of the nation - corruption and development. As if the myriad scams were not enough, the government's inefficiency in controlling price rise and inflation has not gone well with the common man. The BJP will use this as another weapon against the Congress which is already weak here.

Naxalism: If there is one front on which Dr Singh could have done more, in fact much more is regarding controlling the menace of armed Communists. The state continues to be infested with Maoists in spite of steps taken by both, the State and the Central governments. In one such attack in May 2013, most of the top brass of the INC in the state was wiped out. Apart from the Salva Jadum founder Mahendra Karma, the state president Nand Kumar Patel and former Union Minister V C Shukla were also gunned down in the tragic incident. In a bid to win sympathy votes, the party fielded the kin of several of its dead leaders in the state polls and two such candidates - Devati Karma (Dantewada) and Uday Patel (Kharasia) emerged victorious. In absence of strong local leaders to take on the BJP, the Congress may rake up this incident in the General Elections too.

CONTENDERS

(1) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): After dominating the state politics for more than 10 years and winning the legislative assembly elections less than six months back, the BJP is in the driver's seat. Having dropped just one seat in 2013, Raman Singh is all set to lead the party's charge in Chhattisgarh and is expected to rout the Congress. The voices of dissident in the party against him too have stopped. Karuna Shukla, the niece of former PM Vajpayee has left the party whereas Rajya Sabha MP Nand Kumar Sai, another open critic of Singh has been keeping a low profile lately. The saffron camp which bagged 10 seats in the last Lok Sabha has retained six of its sitting MPs. The prominent ones include state party unit president Vishnu Dev Sai (Raigarh), national president of the party's Mahila Morcha Sushree Saroj Pandey (Durg), sitting MLA Vikram Usendi (Kanker) and the CM's son Abhisekh Singh (Rajnandgaon).

(2) Congress: The state's first CM and controversial leader Ajit Jogi will be leading the party in the state. Though he continues to yield considerable influence amongst the Scheduled Tribes and the Christians, he is also a divisive figure. During the last polls, there were allegations that he had informed the Maoists about the movement of other state leaders who were killed in the Dharba attack. Also, he is said to have ensured the defeat of some of his own party candidates, the ones who are not his loyalists during the state polls. Meanwhile, he has been fielded from Mahasamud, the parliamentary constituency he had won in 2004. Charandas Mahant the only Congress nominee to win the 2009 General Elections in the state and a Cabinet Minister will most likely be nominated from Korba whereas Karuna Shukla, the big catch for the INC will be contesting from Bilaspur.

Others: With the two national parties winning a total of 88 of the 90 seats in the state legislature, you can see why the smaller parties in the state have no chance of winning even a single seat. Of course, the AAP is an exception since it is making its debut here in 2014 and it remains to be seen how much of an impact it can make. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) has given tickets to folk artist Lakshman Masuriya (Mahasamund) and controversial tribal activist Soni Sori (Bastar) who has been accused of being linked to Maoists. With such strong contenders, do not be surprised if Kejriwal's outfit will win one seat. The Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) which had the third largest vote share and won a single seat in 2013 is not expected to open its account. Amongst the other local players are the National People's Party (NPP), the Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GPP), the Chhattisgarh Swabhiman Morcha (CSM), the Chhattisgarh Mukti Morcha (CMM), the JD(U) and the Left parties.

PAST PERFORMANCE

Formed during the NDA regime in 2001, the state of Chhattisgarh has been one of the strongholds of the BJP. While Ajit Jogi was the first CM of the state, the saffron outfit won a handsome victory in 2003 state elections under late Dileep Singh Judeo. However, after the former royal was allegedly caught on tape accepting a bribe, the party chose Dr Raman Singh for the top post. Having delivered on key parameters for 11 years in a row, the incumbent CM's popularity has been one of the biggest reasons for the BJP to do so well here. In fact, I like to call the post 2003 period in the state politics as the 'Raman Era'. Under him, the saffronists have swept the last two Lok Sabha polls here, winning 10 of the 11 parliamentary seats. On the other hand, the Congress has never been able to cross the 40 mark in the state assembly.

Political Party	2013 SE	2009 LE	2008 SE	2004 LE	2003 SE
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	49	10	50	10	50
Congress (INC)	39	1	38	1	37
Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	1	-	2	-	2
Others	1	-	-	-	1

(1) There are 90 seats in the Chhattisgarh legislative assembly.

(2) Chhattisgarh sends 11 MPs to the Parliament.

MY PREDICTIONS

The BJP is all set to win the majority of the seats here. However, winning 10 seats like in the previous two polls will be difficult. I expect the saffron outfit to win 8 to 10 seats. The Congress is likely to increase its tally to 2 seats. The AAP has a good chance of bagging one seat.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	8-10
2	Congress (INC)	1-2
3	Aam Admi Party (AAP)	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) Son-rise in Chhattisgarh: With the BJP giving a ticket to Abhisekh Singh, the son of the incumbent CM, it seems that another dynasty is begining to emerge in Indian politics. Dr Raman Singh enjoys immense popularity in Chhattisgarh and has helped the BJP dominate politics here for a long time. As such, it is not at all surprising that the party has decided to 'reward' him with this gesture. It will be interesting to see how the young Turk performs in the upcoming polls. A win will cement his place in politics and he might even be inducted in the Union cabinet, that is of course if the BJP comes to power in 2014.

(2) The future of Ajit Jogi: A lot is on the line for Ajit Jogi, the first CM of the state. After three straight loses, it is highly unlikely that he will ever occupy the top post, even if the INC comes to power. Although the party does not have any other leader of equal stature, his involvement in several controversies will prove a big hindrance to his political ascent anywhere in the near future. To stay relevant in politics, Jogi has to win the Mahasamund seat which will see a tough triangular contest this time around. Meanwhile, the wheel chair bound politician has already passed on the baton to his son Amit Jogi who is the serving MLA from Marwahi. Besides, his wife Renu Jogi too has won from the Kota assembly seat.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)