A PLAN FOR REVIVAL

A FIVE POINT AGENDA FOR RESURRECTION OF THE CONGRESS

The much hyped Congress Working Committee (CWC) meeting scheduled for today ended on a rather familiar note with 'interim' President Sonia Gandhi agreeing to hang on to the top post for six more months. Sparks began to fly late last evening as 23 prominent Congressmen in a letter addressed to the former NAC Chairperson, raised pertinent questions on the lack of visible leadership within the grand old party. Even as Gandhi sycophants stepped in to defend the INC's first family against this unexpected onslaught, former President Rahul Gandhi decided to take the 'dissenters' head on, and as per ANI sources, accused them of 'colluding with the BJP'. Moments later, former minister Kapil Sibal who was one of the signatories to the letter put out a sarcastic tweet hitting back at the Waynad MP. Another prominent 'dissenter', former External Affairs minister Ghulam Nabi Azad threatened to resign if Rahul could prove his charges. Clearly stung by these attacks, Rahul denied making the remark as loyalists including former PM Manmohan Singh, former Defence Minister A K Anthony et all convinced the aging Sonia to stay on.

Though I am no fan of either the Congress or the Gandhis, it is important that the party somehow puts its house in order as soon as possible. For a vibrant democracy, a robust Opposition that takes on the Government on its policies and stands by it during times of national crisis is an absolute must. The Congress has failed so far, on both these fronts. Somehow, the INC has not yet recovered from the jolt of May 2014 and over the years, the abysmal state of affairs within the outfit only continues to worsen. This has further added to the aura of invincibility surrounding the BJP led by the powerful Modi-Shah duo. Even otherwise, the Congress is the inheritor of a rich legacy, having been one of the many prominent players in the national movement. While it is true that the INC of the freedom struggle is a far cry from the INC of today, we must also acknowledge that it is this organization that gave us some of our greatest founding fathers including Nehru, Patel, Bose and the Mahatma. With no full time leader, almost zero inter-party democracy and an outdated ideology, it is highly unlikely that the INC is going to witness a change in political fortunes anytime soon. Even as India's most successful political party struggles to find panacea for the many problems it faces, here is my five point agenda for a possible Congress revival.

(1) A full time President, preferably Rahul Gandhi: For years now, the Congress' longest serving President Sonia Gandhi has not been keeping well. Considering that the Amethi MP is under medication, it is mind-boggling that she is forced to stay on at the helm of affairs in the INC, in spite of the fact that she has offered to step down on multiple occasions. The logic behind this seems to be the fact that the grand old party needs a Gandhi to run the show smoothly. The family is apparently the glue that holds the many factions within the party together. With Sonia needing a break and Priyanka shifting focus to UP, it is imperative that the party leaders convince the 'reluctant Crown Prince' to take back the reins of the Congress. Will this move succeed? I am not sure; Rahul Gandhi's lack luster report card does not inspire confidence either. However, this move will at least clear the leadership mess and set in a clear hierarchy with the Congress. As and when that happens, the Waynad MP must usher in a set of reforms to empower Youth Congress organizations and promote internal democracy, topics which he has spoken about in the past but which, in pure Rahulesque fashion were not followed up during his first tenure.

(2) A clear Ideology: In what can be described as the most passionate speech in his political career so far, Rahul Gandhi while speaking at the AICC in January 2013 described the Congress as follows: 'Congress Party ek soch hain aur yeah soch hum sabke dil mein hain'. It is time that the young Gandhi scion articulated what this soch (idea) is and what it stands for. For decades, the INC has been seen as a Centrist, pro-Socialist, Secular party though not all of its policies have been in accordance to these lofty ideals. The aggressive pro-Hindutva stance of the BJP and its consecutive victories since 2014 seem to have left a deep impact on the grand old party, forcing it to project itself a much softer Hindutav party. It was in the wake of this that Rahul went temple hoping prior to UP 2017 polls and described himself as a 'Janayu-dhari Shiv Bhakt'. Multiple flip flops, especially on issues of national importance like surgical strikes and the building of the Ram Mandir have given more fodder for the BJP to project its nemesis as weak and rudderless. Even as traditional vote banks including Dalits, women and tribals seem to be gravitating to the saffron outfit, the party is fast losing its ground even in its former strongholds like Maharasthra, Andhra-Telangana and North East. There is an urgent need for the Congress to reflect upon what is the 'idea of India' that it arrogates to itself and claims to be fighting for every now and then. It needs an ideology that a young, inspirational India of the 21st century can connect with.

(3) Promoting Regional Leaders: During the decade since its defeat at the hands of the UPA in 2004, it was state leaders like Narendra Modi, Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh who kept the saffron flag flying in the heartland even as the party faced an existential crisis at the national level. In fact, in what was a tribute to the BJP's culture of nurturing dynamic regional satraps, it was the Gujarat CM who brought it to power at the Center after 10 years of warming the Opposition benches. In sharp contrast, it has been the Congress policy since the days of Indira Gandhi to cut wings of ambitious state chieftains in a bid to enforce the power of the High Command. Nine out of ten Congress CMs are Gandhi loyalists who pose no threat to the power and prestige of the first family. Evidently, this culture has back fired. While the Congress tries to fix the mess in the national leadership, the need of the hour is to take on the BJP at the state level. The appointment of Priyanka Gandhi as the AICC in-charge of eastern UP and the elevation of PAAS leader Hardik Patel in Gujarat and strategist D K Shiv Kumar in Karnataka are steps in the right direction. Incumbent CMs like Captain Amarinder Singh (Punjab), Bhupesh Baghel (Chattisgarh) and Ashok Gehlot (Rajasthan) need to be given full backing of the top brass amd more responsibility in framing the future direction of the INC.

(4) Bridging the Young-Old Divide: For a decade that the UPA was in power, the right mix of dynamic youngsters owing allegiance to Rahul Gandhi and a section of experienced loyalists believed to be close to Sonia was seen as the secret for the success of the Congress. As the old timers grabbed the plum ministries, the youngsters seemed to be contend with donning the hat of MoS. Cut to present and the rebellions of Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot paints a sad picture of a party that is imploding from within thanks to the frictions between the pro-Rahul and pro-Sonia camps. While Sachin was convinced to stay back, the grand old party has already lost some of its most promising young Turks including Scindia Jr., Hemanta Biswas Sarma, Pradyot Manikya Debbarma and Ajoy Kumar. Several other next gen leaders like Milind Deora, Sanjay Nirupam, Navjyot Singh Sidhu and Naveen Jindal are reportedly unhappy with being left out from the scheme of things within the Congress. The INC needs to think how it can manage its demographic divide and reap rich dividends out of it.

(5) Getting more Allies on board: Last but not the least, the INC needs to work towards broadening the UPA by getting more parties on board in its fight against the BJP led NDA. A formal alliance with the Left Front at least in Kerala for the national elections will make sure 20 seats are kept out of reach of the saffron outfit. Similarly, other anti-BJP parites like Mamta Bannerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC), Kejriwal's Aam Admi Party (AAP) and HDK's Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) will only improve its tally. However, for the broadening of UPA, the INC should be ready to make sacrifices; it has already shown that it is ready for this by tying up with the Shiv Sena in Maharasthra and allowing Kumarswamy to become the CM in Karnataka in spite of winning less than 40 seats in the 220 odd strong state legislative assembly. However, more would be needed in the days to come for the Congress to reclaim its long lost pre-eminent position in Indian politics.

O MAJHI RE

WILL MANJHI TAKES NITISH's SAHARA?

Jitan Ram Manjhi - Courtesy: FB

After taking a series of pot shots at Rashtriya Janat Dal (RJD) and its leader Tejashwi Yadav over the course of the month for failing to adhere to the coalition dharma, former Bihar CM and HAM(S) chief Jitan Ram Manjhi has decided to break ranks with the Mahaghatbandhan prior to the impending state polls, scheduled for the end of the year. The decision was taken at the party plenum convened at the chief's residence in Patna where it empowered the EBC leader to take all decisions regarding the future of the outfit. Ahead of the all important state elections, it was speculated that there could be some hiccups within the two major formations in Bihar and with his decision to call it splits with the RJD led UPA, the leader from Gaya may have just opened the flood gates for other smaller parties to look for greener pastures across the politicl spectrum.

For a state renowned for its politicians changing parties based on which way the winds are blowing, the leader from the Extremely Backward Musahar community is no exception. In fact, Manjhi has been the poster boy of the political opportunism that is so rampant in Bihar. He began his political career in the Congress in the early 80s and rose to become a cabinet minister in successive INC regimes in Patna before jumping to the Janata Dal and then moving to Lalu Yadav's RJD. Having served as a minister in Lalu and Rabri cabinets, he joined the Nitish Kumar led JD-U when the former came to power in late 2005. Manjhi has not been a stranger to controversies too; he was an accussed in the fake B Ed. degree racket during his tenure as the state education minister in the Lalu regime in the 90s but was absolved of all charges later.

The biggest moment in his four decade long political career came in 2014 when he was elevated to the post of the state's Chief Minister after incumbent CM Nitish Kumar took responsibilty of his party's rout at the hands of the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls and stepped down. This was seen as an attempt on part of the JD-U chief to woo back the EBCs who had gravitated to the saffron outfit under Narendra Modi. Unfortunately for Manjhi, his days at the center of politics in Bihar did not last long, especially after it emerged that he would not be a rubber stamp CM. Asked to resign in wake of the 2015 state polls to make way for Nitish to lead the Grand Alliance, the leader from Gaya put up a spirited defence, refusing to vacate the chair for his party chief. Clearly short of numbers to prove his majority, he resigned and launched the Hindustani Awam Manch (Secular), accusing his former boss of targeting him on the basis of his 'low' caste status.

Thanks to his short though controversial tenure as the Bihar CM, it was believed that Manjhi could potentially become the new face of the EBCs in Bihar, thereby cutting into the traditional votebank of the JD-U. Moreover, on the poll campaign, he would play up the sympathy card, vowing to avenge the insult heaped upon him and the entire EBC community by Nitish. It was on this assumption that the HAM-S was allocated 20 seats by the NDA for the hotly contested 2015 state polls. As the freinds turned foes turned friends - Lalu and Nitish joined hands, the NDA was swept away; HAM(S) managed to win just a single seat. In what was seen as a personal loss, Manjhi was himself beaten in Makdumpura though he did prevail in Imanganj, a saving grace at max. The result was a clear indication of the fact that the EBCs had continued to place their trust in the JD-U. August 2017 witnessed a major realignment of political forces in Patna. As his relations with his then deputy Tejaswi Yadav became untenable, Nitish ditched the RJD to rejoin the NDA, forcing Manjhi to ally the HAM(S) with the Mahaghatbandhan. In the 2019 General Elections, the party put up candidates in 3 parliamentary seats - Nalanda, Aurangabad and Gaya as a part of the UPA only to draw a blank. With two back to back setbacks, Manjhi and his outfit seem to be more or less sinking into political oblivion.

Now that he has dilly-dallyed with both the NDA and the UPA in Bihar, what's next for Manjhi? Perhaps, the easier (yet impractical) option is to work towards the formation of a Third Front in Bihar. The HAM(S) can tie up with smaller parties and social organizations including Assad-ud-din Owaisi's AIMIM, Pappu Yadav's Jan Adhikari Party (JAP), the NCP, the SP and the Left Parties amongst others. In the weeks ahead, as the two major political formations in the state sit down to finalize their seat-sharing arrangements, Manjhi could find ample opportunities to woo disgruntled elements including Kushwaha's RLSP, Sahani's VIP or even Paswan's LJP to his front. In case of a hung assembly, these smaller outfits could decide who forms the next government in Patna. However, I call this option 'impractical' because for long now, Bihar has given a clear mandate and I see no indication as to why 2020 would be different. Also, forming such a rainbow alliance is going to be a herculean task. Even otherwise, lacking a clear political agenda or dedicated cadre and voter base, the HAM(S) seems to be in no position to win more than one or two seats in case it fights alone, making it largely irrelevant even in case of a hypothetical hung assembly.

The other more practical approach is to accept that the HAM(S) experiment has flopped and merge it either into the BJP or still better, the JD(U). Political realignment is not something new in Bihar. Moreover, in the current scenario, incumbent CM Nitish Kumar may be more than willing to welcome back his former comrade. Apart from a 15 year long incumbency, the JD(U) is still facing some backclash for having dumped the RJD for the Modi led NDA. Some of the most prominent faces of the outfit including former President Sharad Yadav and spokesperson Pawan Kumar Verma are no longer with him. At this stage, Kumar should be relieved to have some of his older loyalists with him as he faces the toughest political battle of his career. The question is whether HAM(S) chief can swallow his pride and do a Sachin Pilot.

PILOT's GHARWAPSI

PILOT CRASH LANDS INTO CONGRESS

जान बची तो लाखो पाए, लौट के बुद्दू घरको आये |

Much like the 'Buddu' who felt grateful for having escaped death in whatever misadventure he had embarked upon, Sachin Pilot should be relieved that the Congress agreed to take him back nearly a month after he had launched a revolt against the CM Ashok Gehlot. It is difficult to judge who is the ultimate winner in the short-lived rebellion that once threatened to destabilize the regime in Jaipur; is it the Gehlot who not only got rid of his bitter rival but also managed to save his government or was it former CM Vasundhare Raje who stood her ground against the inclusion of Pilot Jr in the saffron ranks and showed her influence in the state BJP. What is clear though is that the ultimate loser is the young leader from Tonk. Not only was he stripped of his position of the being the second-in-command in the state government, he has also lost the position of the president of Rajasthan Congress. 

In what was more than a symbolic reflection of the changing times, the former Deputy Minister was made to sit in the corner in the state assembly as he along with his former 'brothers-in-arms' voted to the save the very same government that they had vowed to overthrow. Pilot Jr. though put a strong defence, claiming that the strongest soldiers are sent to guard the borders. However, the sad reality for the young Turk is that apart from losing his ministry and the party presidency, he has lost the one thing that matters the most in the grand old party, the trust of the Gandhis. This was the ultimate fall from grace for a leader who was believed to be a close confidante of former INC chief Rahul Gandhi. The home coming is going to be anything but easy for him; he is going to be a marked man, every move of his, is going to be looked upon with suspicion and Gehlot & Co. will only be waiting for him to keep a wrong foot to finish off whatever is left of his political career within the INC. 

Now that he is no more than an 'ordinary worker' in the Rajasthan Congress, the former Corporate Affairs minister should spend considerable amount of his time contemplating what went wrong for him. One thing though is quite clear, he grossly over estimated his strength. After all, he could only muster the support of 18 MLAs, much less than his initial estimate of 30 that would have put pressure not only on the Congress High Command to take him seriously but also entice BJP to overrule Raje and try to woo him. In fact, across the length of the whole episode, it was evident that Sachin was mostly on the defensive, largely reacting to the agenda that CM Ashok Gehlot was setting. This is certainly not a trait of a strong regional satrap that Pilot aspires to be.

The former MP now has to start from scratch and work very hard to regain his lost political fortunes. At 43, he has still a long way to go and can afford to make mistakes. The whole imbroglio should remind Sachin Pilot that politics is more often than not, a game of numbers. It is now up to him to see how he can resurrect  himself from this debacle and emerge as the strongest Congress leader within Rajasthan. But then, that only seems possible as of now, once Ashok Gehlot hangs his boots.

CONGRESS' NEW FACE IN GUJARAT

HARDIK PATEL TO LEAD THE PARTY IN MODI-SHAH BACKYARD

Hardik Patel - Courtesy: Face Book

While the suspense over Sachin Pilot's political future continues to hang in the balance, there seems to be some positive news coming out of the Congress camp in Gujarat. In Ahmedabad, the grand old party has decided to hand over the reins to the young Patidar leader - Hardik Patel. For a party bereft of a loyal voter base or a solid leadership in the state, the move is certainly a step in the right direction. With the Congress being out of power in the the land of Modi and Shah since 1998, the appointment of 27 year old Hardik as the Working President of the Gujarat Congress, perhaps the youngest state president for any major political party in India, can prove to be a game changer in the fight for 2022.

For decades, the INC seemed happy playing second fiddle to the BJP in the western state; however, in the 2017 state elections, infused by the energy brought in by the likes of Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mewani, the Congress fought tooth and nail, restricting the saffron camp to 99, its worst tally in decades. Almost immediately though, the party lost its momentum, slipping back to its typical laissez-faire attitude and ended up conceding all 26 Lok Sabha seats to the BJP in Gujarat in the last General Elections. What's worst, months later, several party MLAs walked over to the saffron camp, amongst them was one of the poster boys of 2017, Alpesh Thakor, clearly indicating the rot within the state Congress. While a great opportunity for revival may have been lost in the winter of 2017, it is better late than never; Patel's elevation brings in hopes for a major upheaval in the Gujarat chapter of the INC. Hardik certainly has the potential to be the torch bearer of Congress' fortunes in the western state. With the polls two years away, the young Patidar leader has his task cut out.

Face of Gujarat Congress: Post the heydays of Madhav Singh Solanki and Chimanbhai Patel, the INC in Gujarat has never had a political leader whose popularity spanned across the different regions and communities. In fact, for long, the party in the state was led by Shankarsinh Vaghela, a saffron import. Sonia Gandhi's political secretary Ahmad Patel who hails from the state is more of a organizational man than a mass leader. In the 13 years he served as the Gujarat's CM, Congress leaders like Shaktisinh Gohil, Arjun Modhwadia and Siddharth Patel were no match to Narendra Modi. However, incumbent CM Vijay Rupani lacks the charisma of the current PM. The time is perfect for a young and dynamic leader like Hardik to fill in the vacuum and begin his ascent on the state's political landscape.

The PAAS leader needs to employ a two pronged strategy in his quest to emerge as the new mass leader of the Congress. Firstly, he has to consolidate his position as the biggest Patel leader in the state. However, he has to realize that merely cultivating the state's largest community won't be enough; he has to woo other communities too. Congress stalwart Madhav Singh Solanki built up the KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim) combination and led the INC to a famous victory in the 80s winning 150 seats. Muslims have for long backed the INC but the young leader from Mehsana has to be careful that he does not play into the hands of the BJP in its attempts to communalize the 2022 polls. If Hardik can successfully transform himself from being the leader of the Patels to one who can build and lead a combination of communities against the saffron camp in the next two years, he will definitely be the top contender for the post of CM in case of a Congress win.

Rebuilding the party: After five consecutive loses to the BJP in Gujarat, it is quite natural that the morale of the party workers continues to be at an all time low. In spite of an impressive showing in the 2017 polls, the party has failed to capitalize on the advantages that it gained back then, largely because the party organization is in shambles. Infighting, like in any other state unit is still rampant, with favoritism always scoring over merit and talent. As such, the INC has somehow failed to convert the massive anti-incumbency against the BJP, into its favor. Another problem that has been plaguing the party in Ahmedabad for long is the desertion of its MLAs, especially before the Rajya Sabha polls.

Its now up to Hardik to convert the moribund Congress unit in Gujarat into a well-oiled machine that can take on the saffron outfit. Perhaps, the first step is to do away with old timers who have been warming their posts for years without delivering any tangible benefits for the INC. New leaders need to be identified and groomed before the 2022 polls. Next, Patel needs to galvanize the party cadres, the ordinary Congress worker on the street in the fight against the BJP. The karyakartas need to be enthused so that they can take the party's message to the masses. He needs to make alliances with sub-regional outfits and social organizations dissatisfied with the BJP and take them on board. Ticket distribution needs to be based on a candidate's potential to win and not on him/her being in good books of some top state party leader.

Channelizing the anti-incumbency against the BJP: A large section of the Gujarati electorate has been unhappy with the BJP, especially over demonetization and the hasty implementation of the GST. This was largely evident from the way the party's tally fell below the 3 figure mark in 2017, for the first time since 1993. The woes of the ruling outfit was only attenuated by the absence of a strong leader like Modi whereas the agitation of the Patidars, long considered to be loyalists of the saffron camp, only made the matters worse. That the BJP somehow managed to hang on to power, shows the dismal state of affairs in the INC camp. After ushering in key reforms to rebuild the Congress in the state, Patel needs to work on milking this anti-incumbency against the saffronists. He must shun the comforts of the air conditioned office in Ahmedabad and hit the trail right away. He needs to tour the state, attend rallies and building up the support base for the Congress. The failure of the incumbent regime, especially its below average handling of the Covid pandemic in the state needs to be highlighted. The party's campaigns needs to be innovative and centered around the youth, women and the poor so that dissatisfaction against the Rupani government can be channelized to give INC the advantage.

Hardik Patel's first test will be leading the party in the by polls for the eight assembly seats that fell vacant after the elected Congress MLAs resigned to join the BJP. Every seat that the INC wins in the by polls will enhance his reputation many folds.

While Hardik gets down to lead the Congress in 2022, the message to the Congress High Command would be to have a bit of patience. Expecting the young leader to do wonders in months would prove to a blunder. Hardik needs to be given a free hand, part from funds to take on the BJP. It is generally the Congress' culture to prevent the growth of strong state leaders. From Devaraj Urs to Sharad Pawar in the yester years to the likes of Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot now, the Gandhis have always been known to cut powerful state satraps to size. However, such an approach will not work anymore considering that the stocks of the Gandhi family are at an all time low. Leaders like Patel, Amarinder Singh and D K Shivakumar need to be empowered. It is only through them that the INC can be revived, first in the states and then at the Center.

PILOT HITS TURBULENCE

GEHLOT CATCHES SACHIN ON A STICKY WICKET

Sachin Pilot - Courtesy: Face Book

Last week, former Rajasthan Deputy CM Sachin Pilot hit the headlines as he along with his band of loyalists shifted base to BJP ruled Haryana in revolt against his bête noire - CM Ashok Gehlot. Though there have been reports of his differences with Gehlot ever since the Congress came to power in the state in 2018, it seems that police summons to the young leader from Tonk, asking him to join investigation in a probe related to alleged efforts on parts of the BJP to topple the government seemed to have been the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back. As talks to resolve the crisis failed to achieve any success, in spite of involvement of the Gandhi siblings, the Congress decided to take action.

Not only was he stripped off his position as the state's Deputy CM and the chief of the Rajasthan Pradesh Congress Committee (RPCC), Sachin and the 18 MLAs who came out in his support were served notices for disqualification under the anti-defection law which was later challenged by them in the Rajasthan High Court; in a relief, the court has directed the Speaker of the state assembly to wait till it delivers its judgement in the case on Monday. With Ashok Gehlot consolidating his position and upping the ante against the rebels, it seems that doors within the grand old party are finally shutting on party's former blue-eyed boy in the dessert state. Aware that numbers are not on their side and the factional feud within, the BJP has not expressed much interest in the affair, at least for the time being though its sympathies seem to be completely with Pilot Jr. as seen in the way the rebel MLAs were protected when a team from Rajasthan police reached Thanesar to grill them.

Ashok Gehlot - The Chanakya of Rajasthan politics: For over three decades, the incumbent CM has been the face of the party in the state and Sachin Pilot is just the latest of the many detractors he has taken on in his illustrious career. Serving as a Union Minister under Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi and Narasimha Rao, the leader from Jodhpur first took over the reins of the state in 1998, when the INC bagged 153 seats against the BJP led by Bhairon Singh Shekawat. This in spite of the fact that the party campaign was led by Jat leader and Gehlot's mentor Parasram Maderna, who was later made the Speaker in the state assembly. In what seemed like an action replay, the Sadarpur MLA later beat his rival C P Joshi to became the CM again in 2008 though it was the latter who was the party's face in its electoral campaign. Back then, what made matters difficult for Joshi, currently serving as the Speaker was that he lost from his constituency Nathdwara by a single vote. Ditto in 2018; while the INC won the mandate under Pilot's leadership, he had to contend with being second in command to Gehlot who is not only a close confidante of Sonia Gandhi but also enjoys an enormous clout within the state Congress unit.

A close analysis of Gehlot's moves in the last few months indicate that he left Pilot with no option but to rebel. At the onset of 2020, he convinced six MLAs from Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) to join the Congress, thereby increasing the party's tally to 107. After being able to keep the party flock together in the recently concluded Rajya Sabha polls, he decided to take on Pilot who had been critical of the state government, especially after the Congress drew a blank in the 2019 General Elections in Rajasthan. A probe was set up to look into allegedly efforts made by the BJP to topple the state government in collusion with some Congress leaders, though it was very clear who the target was, when the former Deputy CM was asked to appear before the police. When the news of Sachin's rebellion became public, the CM began wooing the two MLAs of the local outfit Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) to bolster his numbers. While the party's central leadership was working on a rapprochement between two of their tallest leaders in the state, Gehlot went on the offensive, accusing Sachin of being hand-in-gloves with the BJP to bring the government down. This was seen by many as a conscious effort on part of Gehlot to make Pilot's ghar wapsi impossible, thereby cementing his position as the sole leader of the INC in Rajasthan.

What next for Pilot? While Sachin Pilot's association with the Congress seems to be all but over, the suspense over his political future continues to deepen with each passing day. The former Minister of Corporate Affairs has denied all reports of him joining the BJP though the saffron camp has extended tacit support to him.

To begin with, it looks like the Tonk MLA miscalculated his strength within the party. With Rahul Gandhi stepping down from the post of the INC President, there has been a steady decline in the political fortunes of the young brigade seen to be close to him. Sachin only joins a growing list of Congress leaders including Jitin Prasad, Milind Deora, Navjyot Singh Sidhu etc who have been sidelined with the resurgence of the old guard after the debacle in 2019 General Elections. Coming back to Rajasthan, not only did Pilot walk into the trap that Gehlot seems to have been setting for him, he also seems to have over estimated his strength within the Congress Legislative Party in the state. With only 18 MLAs joining him in his rebellion and the BJP having its own set of problems to deal with, Gehlot seems to be set to occupy the CM's chair for some more time.

Considering that he enjoys substantial political power in the Ajmer region, Sachin Pilot may even launch his own regional outfit in his bid to fight Gehlot though the electorate has not been keen on voting for a non-BJP, non-Congress government in Jaipur. Prior to the 2018 state elections, BJP leader Ghanshyam Tiwari who had been a vocal critic of then then CM Vasundhara Raje floated his own outfit - Bharatiya Vahini Party (BVP) to offer a third alternative to the people. The Brahmin leader failed to win a singe seat and merged his party into the Congress last year. Nagaur strongman Hanuman Beniwal fared a little better, winning three seats though his Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) is a part of the NDA today. Similar attempts made by political heavyweights including Kirodi Lal Meena, Devi Singh Bhati and Lokendra Singh Kalvi have been rejected by the electorate. Will Sachin succeed where these men failed is something to be seen.

Meanwhile, it is believed that former CM and BJP leader Vasundhara Raje is not very keen in bringing the young leader into the saffron fold. Moreover, Pilot too may not be comfortable with joining the BJP; after all, his former colleagues like Jyotiraditya Scinda and Hemanta Biswa Sarma who left the Congress to be in the saffron fold have not been able to lead the BJP in their states, something that Sachin is eager to do.

Though he may have been out smarted by the wily Gehlot, age though is firmly on Sachin Pilot's side. At 43, he still has a long way to go. Besides, he comes from an illustrious family and there is still a lot of good will for his father Rajesh Pilot who died tragically in a car crash in 2000. It is expected that for the time being, Sachin will wait and watch out for disgruntled Congress MLAs who might be willing to join him in his rebellion so that he can pull the plug on the Gehlot government before either launching his own party or joining the BJP prior to the next state polls.

The Internal Mess Within the BJP: While it is true that the numbers may not be with them, the lethargy on the part of the BJP's top leadership in Rajasthan to even come out openly in support of Pilot shows the fissures that run deep within the saffron camp in the state. It is fact that for sometime now, former CM Vasundhara Raje Scindia has been miffed with attempts to sideline her within the party though she enjoys the support of over 30 party MLAs. In fact, her absence at the pro CAA rally organized at Jodhpur and attended by Home Minister Amit Shah was seen by many as her symbolic protest against the treatment meted out to her after the party's defeat in 2018 state polls. The appointment of Satish Poonia as the state BJP chief and the elevation of Om Birla as the Speaker of Lok Sabha both seem to have rubbed the former royal in the wrong way since she has not been on good terms with either of them. RLP leader Hanuman Beniwal, an ally of the NDA and a known Raje baiter has questioned her silence on Pilot's rebellion.

Apparently, Raje sees the younger Pilot as a potential threat to her claim to the CM chair's in case the BJP comes back to power in the future. Moreover, she may want her own son Dushyant Singh, four time BJP MP from Jhalawar-Baran constituency to continue her political legacy and may see Pilot as a rival to her son's rise in the saffron ranks. The internal feuds within the Rajasthan BJP, in sharp contrast to the unity it displayed in MP under Shivraj Singh Chauhan and in Karnataka under B S Yeddyurappa has relegated the BJP to be more of a passive player in the whole imbroglio, which just does not fit in the aggressive brand of politics that the saffron outfit has displayed in the Modi-Shah era.

LUCKNOW CALLING

PRIYANKA v/s YOGI in 2022

Priyanka Gandhi - Courtesy: Face Book

Early in the month of July, the Housing Ministry of the Central Government served an order to Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi, cancelling the allotment of the Lodhi Estate house in Delhi, which she has been occupying for last 23 years. As expected, the BJP justified the decision, pointing out that the Gandhis, considered to be the first family of Indian politics, no longer enjoy the Special Protection Guard (SPG) protection after the Act was amended in Dec 2019 to cover only the family members of the incumbent and former PMs. The Congress went out all guns blazing; accusing the Modi government of vendetta politics and calling the move a sustained effort on the part of the Modi-Shah duo to target its top brass personally.

On her part, it seems as though Priyanka was anyway planning to shift out of Delhi with reports suggesting that she was due to move to Lucknow so that she could take her job as the party general secretary in charge of UP more seriously. The outbreak of the Corona pandemic seems to have postponed her plan, till the BJP decided to show the more hardcore elements of its core electorate that it would not go soft on the Gandhis. On the part of the INC, they have decided to milk the situation, accusing the government of witch hunt against the younger Gandhi who has been quite vocal in her criticism of the Yogi regime in Uttar Pradesh, and in the process, earn some sympathy for its High Command which has seen its stocks plummet to a low time low.

Ever since the drubbing it got in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the grand old party, has largely been on the back foot at the center, the imbroglio surrounding Rahul Gandhi’s re-appointment as the President, only making the matters worse. Under these circumstances when the party has not been able to corner the government in spite of its mishandling of the Covid situation in the country and recent clashes at the China border, Priyanka’s decision to shift base to Lucknow and help build the party in India’s most important state is certainly a step in the right direction, for the following reasons:

(1) The Gandhis are serious about UP, finally: Though Uttar Pradesh has been the home turf of the Gandhis, they seem to have some how lost touch with the state, post the Indira Gandhi era. The party has become irrelevant outside the pocket boroughs of Rae Bareli and Amethi, ceding ground, first to the BJP during the Babri Masjid demolition movement and then to the two main regional players – the Mulayum Singh & Akhilesh Yadav led Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Mayawati lead Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP); in fact, in the last national polls, BJP leader Smriti Irani even managed to wrest Amethi from the then Congress President Rahul Gandhi.

With Priyanka being one of the main weapon’s in the Congress’ arsenal for the time being, her impending move to Lucknow is a clear indication that the party means business in UP and will put its entire might to put up a good show in the 2022 state polls.

(2) A complete overhaul of the UP Congress: With the party being out of power in Lucknow since 1989, in many parts of the big state, the Congress cadre is non-existent and most of its one-time big wigs have moved on to rival camps. As seen in the 2017 state elections where it happily agreed to play a junior partner to the SP, it seemed until now that the Congress had given up all hopes, resigning to the fact that it was not a serious contender for UP anymore.

With a Gandhi scion taking hold of the reins of the party in UP, it is expected that Priyanka would usher in a series of much delayed and much needed reforms to stop the rot in the UPCC (Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee) and help rebuild the party organization, from the scratch, quite literally. Moreover, for quite some time now, she had been taking on the Yogi government on its alleged failures to provide good governance to the people. Shifting base to UP, not only gives more vigor to her barbs against the state government but is also expected to enthuse the ordinary Congress karya karta right in time for the state polls, scheduled to be held in 20 months.

In fact, she can take some inspiration from bitter rival Amit Shah who as the head of BJP state unit helped the party and its allies win a staggering 73 out of the 80 seats in the 2014 polls that saw Modi sweep to power while the Congress was reduced to its worst ever tally of 44 seats at the national level. Prior to his arrival in UP, BJP's position in the state was just a little better than what the Congress finds itself in as of now; Shah rebuilt the party, taking lots of tough decisions that ultimately paid off. Congress sympathizers are definitely hoping for such a show from Priyanka.

(3) The Division of Power: Ever since Rahul entered electoral politics, there have been accusations of there being multiple power centers within the Congress that severely curtails its ability to take quick decisions vis-a-vis the BJP where Modi’s diktat reigns supreme. It is known that the Congress is split into two camps, the old timers swearing loyalty to Sonia and the young Turks pledging allegiance to Rahul. Of late, with Priyanka taking a more active interest in politics, many feared that a new third camp may emerge, especially with Rahul finding hard to win elections for the party.

Priyanka’s move to Lucknow and Rahul taking back reins from Sonia will certainly be a step that could clear a lot of the mess regarding decision making in the Congress. Rahul would be free to take decisions at the Centre and concentrate on cornering the Modi government while Priyanka, as his trusted lieutenant can help revive the party fortunes in UP.

Priyanka’s choice of residence in UP’s capital city is laced with all sorts of symbolism; she has decided to move into the vacant house owned by Late Sheila Kaul, the sister-in-law of Jawahar Nehru. What makes the house more special is that it was here that Gandhiji and Nehru had planted a tree together way back in the 1930s. Don’t be surprised if you see Priyanka’s social media feed flooded with images of this tree in the run up to the 2022 state polls in a bid to invoke the Nehru-Gandhi legacy of the Congress.

Overall, Priyanka’s move to Lucknow certainly seems to be a step in the right direction. If she can put her political acumen and charisma to good use, she can put the party on a firm footing in UP, while keeping the Yogi government on tenterhooks. If she can get back the traditional Congress vote banks of Brahmins, Muslims and Dalits that they have lost to BJP, SP and the BSP respectively, then the party can hopefully see a revival of fortunes in the big state. In fact, the Congress should take the gamble, announce Priyanka Gandhi as its CM nominee, thereby raising the stakes. The move may or may not pay off, but then, as they say, ‘Fortune favors the Brave’. It could just be the move that could spark off a Congress revival on India's political landscape.

RAHUL VERSION 2.0

WHAT RAGA NEEDS TO DO TO REVIVE HIS CAREER & THE CONGRESS

After abandoning the Congress party for a good 57 days, the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi family - Rahul Gandhi made a grand return to the country couple of weeks back. Ever since his sojourn, he seems to be a changed man; much to the delight of the Congress leaders and supporters, he has been making the right kind of noises and attacking the Modi government on a wide range of issues. Be it standing up for the farmers against the Land Bill or speaking up for Net Neutrality in the Parliament or meeting home buyers in the NCR and raising their concerns over the amendments made to the Real Estate Bill, the MP from Amethi is slowly building up a strong front against the policies of the NDA government which has hardly delivered on any of the numerous tall promises it made during its election campaign.

Though I have been a critic of Rahul and his style of politics for long, I have been pretty impressed by Rahul - version 2.0 and whatever I have seen of it so far. With the 'honeymoon period' for the Modi government coming to an end, the failure of the incumbent regime to bring in the 'Aache Din' and the ignominious defeat faced by the BJP at the hands of the AAP in the Delhi polls, the Congress Vice President has upped the ante and is leading the much delayed Congress fight back from the front. His actions in mobilizing a united front consisting of farmers, the middle class and the youth to take on the NDA government in the past two weeks has taken most of us, be it political analysts or the common man, by surprise. Move over RTI and Women Empowerment, in his brand new avtaar Rahul Gandhi, like so many of the illustrious Congress leaders of the past is connecting with the people on the ground and engaging with the karya-kartas at the lowest levels to check mate the BJP lead national government in New Delhi.

Rahul's comeback has evoked contrasting response from various factions within the political circles of the country; naturally enough, the Congress has hailed this as a game-changer, the regional satraps are treading a cautious line, the media has termed it as a 'revelation' whereas the BJP sees this as just another attempt to relaunch the Gandhi's scion 'failing' political career. In my opinion, a more mature Gandhi junior is good news for our democracy. After all, he is all set to become the President of the largest Opposition party in the coming weeks. A strong, well-informed leader at the helm of affairs in the INC will keep PM Modi and his colleagues in the cabinet on the tenterhooks. At a time when many are scared that the fringe groups within the Sangh Parivaar may derail the government's development agenda, an Opposition led by a level headed Rahul may help check their excesses and raise the issue that are actually affecting the people.

This is certainly not the first time that the Amethi MP has burst out on the national scene all of a sudden. Be it speaking on behalf of Kalavati in the Parliament during the debate on the Indo-US Nuclear Deal or tearing off the ordinance protecting parliamentarians from arrest, Rahul has made waves in the past too. However, the problem with him seems to be that he fails in sustaining the enthusiasm surrounding him. The reluctant politician in him seems to arise every time one thinks that he is going to break out from the shackles and make a permanent space for himself in the political arena. Perhaps, he can take a leaf out of the book of his namesake - 'Mr Consistent' Rahul Dravid. Besides, here are a few more things that he can do so that the people of the country take him more seriously.

They say that a man is known by the company he keeps. The first thing that Rahul has to do is that he needs to do away with 'incompetent' advisors who have done more damage to his political career so far than good; people like Digvijaya Singh and Madhusudan Mistri need to go. The junior Gandhi has to surround himself with a coterie of people who have sharp political acumen and are aware of the aspiration of the electorate in different parts of the country. Moreover, there is a need to have state level leaders too in this committee who can help him take the right decisions. The more diverse and more competent this core group, the more returns it will yield for Rahul and his party.

Raising the right issues at the right time is an art that makes a successful politicians and this is something that the Amethi MP needs to master as soon as possible. As of now, he has done very well. The trip to Punjab to meet the farmers was a good move considering that the state goes for polls in 2017 and that there is simmering anti-incumbency against the Badals there. Speaking up for neutrality of the Internet has surely won him admirers amongst the youth, a constituency that had stood behind Modi during the 2014 General Elections. The meeting with the flat buyers and his opposition to the Real Estate Bill in Delhi will help in wooing the middle class, another section that had gravitated towards the BJP till some time back. It is imperative that Rahul keeps pilling on more pressure on the government at regular intervals.

Thirdly, the Congress Vice President has to be more accessible. The party workers on the ground have long complained that it is very difficult to get an audience with him. Rahul's absence on the social media, his minimal media interactions and his absence from the Parliament during the times of important debates only adds to the negative publicity surrounding him. It is high time that Rahul finally sheds this tag of being aloof from the realities on the ground. An account on Facebook and Twitter are long over due; considering that this is a good platform for connecting with the youth, the Amethi MP needs to make his debut on the social media as soon as possible. He has to address more press conferences and speak more often in the Parliament so that his views on issues of national importance are well known.

Next and more importantly, there is an immediate need to revive the Congress which seems to be moribund at the moment. After being reduced to 44 seats, the least in its history, the INC needs a complete reform. Earlier, Rahul has spoken about his ideas to reform the Congress by initiating schemes like holding primaries to select party candidates and decentralizing power by empowering state leaders. However, none of these ideas actually took off in the right spirit. The recent spate of electoral defeats that the party suffered in the past two years only has made the matters worse. The urgent need of the hour is for Rahul to take control of the party and infuse some enthusiasm amongst the party workers. As the morale of the workers will boost, the prospects of the INC too will brighten, thereby helping it regain lost ground.

Last and in no way the least, Gandhi needs to make some working arrangements with leaders of non-NDA parties in the Parliament so that pressure can be built up on the Modi regime. TO begin with, the Amethi MP has to improve the co-ordination between the various parties that are still within the UPA. The Bihar by-polls has shown that the only way to combat the BJP is to form newer, innovative alliances cutting across traditional political barriers. In this aspect, the relaunched Janata Parivaar is a strong anti-Modi Front and Gandhi has to work more closely with the likes of Mulayum, Lalu and Nitish so that they can take on the NDA in the Parliament. The Left parties have always stood against the BJP and befriending Karat & Co. should not be difficult. Regional players like Mamata, Mayawati, Chandrashekar Rao and Karunanidhi can be cajoled into forming alliances with the Congress for the state polls. Certainly, Rahul Gandhi's political success in the near future could depend on how many friends he can win in the next few months.

JHARKHAND POLLS 2014 - Part III

KEY TAKEAWAYS

The elections to the fourth Jharkhand state legislative assembly are over and the results are out. Having analyzed the numbers, let us see the seven key takeaways from the state assembly polls.

(7) Janata Parivar's 'unimpressive' debut: A few weeks earlier, Mandalite leaders including Mulayum Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Sharad Yadav and Deve Gowda came together to form a united front against the Modi juggernaut. Rattled by the results of the 2014 General Polls wherein these former colleagues in the erstwhile Janata Dal were literally obliterated in their own turfs, the regional satraps began talks of a possible merger sometime in the near future to take on a resurgent BJP under Narendra Modi and his lieutenant Amit Shah. The state elections was the first time that two major constituents of this new 'group', namely the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Janata Dal - United (JD-U) were fighting polls together. However, their failure to win any seats shows that the new avataar of the Janata Parivar still does not have the blessings of the janata (people). For all those who believe that the two outfits have no presence in the state, they won seven seats in the last polls. Moreover, the parties ended up fielding rival candidates from same constituencies in spite of hammering a 'seat sharing' arrangement with the Congress.

(6) Another electoral setback for the Congress: Year 2014 has been a forgettable year for the grand old party. Apart from a victory in Arunachal state polls, the party has not managed to win any major election in the country in the last twelve months. From hitting historical lows in the General Elections to being relegated to the third position in traditional strongholds of Maharashtra and Haryana, the INC under the 'able' leadership of Rahul Gandhi is hardly the party that it once was till sometime back. The results of the Jharkhand polls show that the 'lean' phase that the Congress is going through is far from over. The INC dropped eight seats to finish with a tally of 6. However, what should hurt Congress the most is the decision to pull the plug on its alliance with the JMM. Had the party continued the partnership, the results could have been different. Besides, it also failed to get Babulal Marandi on board in its rather disastrous coalition with the RJD and the JD-U.

(5) Babulal Marandi's return to the saffron fold? In 2006, the state's first CM Babulal Marandi broke his ties with the BJP after fallout with the incumbent CM Arjun Munda and launched his own outfit - the JVM-P. In the 2009 polls, he contested the elections in alliance with the Congress and won 11 of the 25 seats its contested primarily thanks to his popularity and Mr. Clean image. However, in the run up to the 2014 polls, he refused to be a part of the JMM-Congress coalition since he was not projected as the front's CM candidate. Despite of many of his MLAs crossing over to other parties, it did win 8 seats and finished as the third largest party in terms of numbers behind the BJP and the JMM. However, in what could be one of the biggest surprises of the polls, Marandi was defeated in both the seats he contested - Giridh and Dhanawar. After the results, Marandi who wanted to lead an anti-BJP front prior to the polls was ready to consider being a part of the new regime. Earlier, after his elevation as the BJP's PM designate, Modi had requested the JVM-P supremo to merge his party into the BJP. Now with the BJP still needing numbers to lessen its reliance on the AJSU, the saffron camp may vigorously woo its former leader to come back. Is a 'Gharwapsi' on the cards? Let's wait and watch.

(4) Is the Modi bandwagon losing steam? Though it did emerge as the single largest party in the state, the BJP's 'lackluster' tally and its inability to cross the half way mark on its own is a clear indication that the Modi wave is weakening. Opinion polls had suggested that the saffron outfit may go well beyond the 50 seats on its own considering that it lead in 56 assembly segments if we take into account the results of the May elections and in the aftermath of the breakup of the JMM - Congress alliance. However, all that the party could manage was 37 seats with its ally - the AJSU grabbing another 5 seats. This decline is a clear fact that the 'honeymoon' period of the Modi government at the Centre was enjoying for the last six months is slowly coming to an end. The PM had promised a lot of things during his electoral campaign and its time that he starts delivering on it, failing which the BJP might suffer the same fate as the INC.

(3) A new regional leader on the block: With Shibu Soren's health deteriorating many were speculating that his outfit - the JMM could slide into the oblivion. However, the manner in which his son and the incumbent CM Hemant Soren led his party and gave a tough fight to the BJP has been appreciated from political observers and opponents alike. Had it not been for him, the JMM would have never been able to retain its 2009 tally. He got back former JMM stalwarts including Stephen Marandi and Anil Murmu back into the party to further strengthen the party. Using his limited resources and and as some people have alleged, his links with underground groups, he was able to prevent the BJP to win a simple majority on its own. At the same time, there are some things that the younger Soren needs to address. His defeat from the family borough of Dhumka was a crude jolt to the JMM. Not only this, his party seems to be losing ground in its stronghold of the Santhal region which is a major cause of worry. Anyway, there is no doubt that with age on his side, Hemant Soren is fast emerging as one of the strong leaders from this part of the country and is set to play a significant role in the political scenario of Jharkhand in the future.

(2) End of Tribal politics? For long, the Sorens, the Mundas, the Marandis and the Mahatos have long dominated the politics of the state. However, the results of the 2014 state polls have come as a major setback for many of the state's top ST leaders. Four of the state's ex-CMs had to bite the dust. Arjun Munda who was considered to be the front runner to the top post was beaten from Khasran by Dasrath Gagrai of the JMM whereas former state secretary J B Tubid was defeated by Deepak Biruwa of the JMM from Chaibasa. AJSU chief and former Deputy CM Sudesh Mahato lost to JMM's Amit Kumar from Silli constituency. Babulal Marandi of the JVM-P was beaten from both the seats he contested. Incumbent CM Hemant Soren lost from his stronghold of Dhumka whereas another former CM Madhu Koda was beaten from Majhgaon.

Following the defeat of Arjun Munda, the stage is set for Jamshedpur - East MLA Raghuvar Das to become the first non-tribal CM from the state. The elevation of Das and the defeat of so many prominent tribal leaders has signaled a tectonic shift in the state politics at least for the next five years.

(1) End of political instability..... Not yet: Many have hailed the Jharkhand verdict as a vote for stability, something that the state had lacked for the past 14 years. With the BJP and the AJSU winning 42 seats, there is a strong belief that the state may have a stable regime for the next five years. Sadly though, in my opinion, that could be far from reality. The saffron outfit needs the support of 5 AJSU legislators to be in majority; past records tell us that the Sudesh Mahato led party is 'unreliable' and could keep the new CM on tenterhooks. That is not all. BJP's own former CM Arjun Munda may have lost the polls himself. However, he too will push for more ministries for his camp by playing the tribal card. Amongst the 6 smaller parties with one MLA each, the BJP will find it difficult to align with the two MLAs from the Leftist ideology or take help from controversial MLAs like Madhu Koda's wife Geeta or jailed leader Enos Ekka who is facing murder charges. Besides, getting back Babulal Marandi too isn't going to be easy. He too may play hard ball by pushing for becoming the CM of the state.

For all posts related to the Jharkhand State Polls 2014, click here (Link)

MAIDAN-e-JUNG - Part II

JAMMU, KASMIR & LADAKH: THE BATTLE FOR THE REGIONS

Earlier this week, Congress leader and former health minister in the Omar Abdullah cabinet Sham Lal Sharma kicked up a storm when he said that the next CM of the northern state should be a Hindu. Speaking at a function to mark the birthday of former PM Rajiv Gandhi, the Akhnoor MLA was clearly trying to play the 'communal' card in the Jammu region which the BJP had swept in the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls. I wonder where the likes of Digvijay Singh and Mani Shankar Aiyer are when someone within the Congress ranks makes such 'shameful' statements. Anyway, the rise of the saffron outfit in Jammu Kashmir has completely changed the political equations in the northern state. Aware that this is perhaps the best chance that the BJP has to come to power here, newly appointed party president Amit Shah has given a clarion call to the cadre here to work towards the accomplishment of his ambitious "Mission 44+'.

I do not want to sound 'communal' but there is certain amount of truth in what the former cabinet minister has said, that is, if we analyze his comments keeping in mind, the various regions in the state and the aspirations of the people there. A look back into history suggests that ever since the former princely state joined the Indian Union, all its Chief Ministers have been from the Valley. Accounting for 53% of the total population of the state and considering that Kashmir sending 46 MLAs to the state assembly, the leaders from here have dominated the state politics, besides monopolizing the position of the CM. However, this winter, things might turn out to be different. The three way battle in the Valley and the possibility of the saffron outfit sweeping Jammu could turns Sharma's 'vision' of a Hindu heading the state into reality, albeit the person may not be owing his allegiance either to the Gandhis or the Abdullahs or even the Muftis.

To understand how important the results in the Kashmir region have been in deciding the CM of the state, we need to go back in history. In 2008, Omar Abdullah was sworn in as the CM of the state after the NC joined hands with the Congress to form a coalition government. The two partners had together won 23 of the 46 seats here. Six years earlier, when the Muftis tied up with the INC, they had together won 21 seats, one more than the NC which ended up with a tally of 20. When Farooq Abdullah took over the reins of Jammu Kashmir in 1996, his outfit swept the Valley, winning a whopping 37 seats. Now coming to the polls scheduled later this year, it remains to be seen in the three cornered contest, will any one of the three contenders - the National Conference (NC), the People's Democratic Party (PDP) or the Congress can win a sizable number of seats from here. The Muftis, after winning all three seats from the Valley in the General Elections are hoping to do what the Abdullahs did way back in 1996. If either the NC or the PDP can win 25 to 30 seats here, then it could lay a legitimate claim to the CM's post.

Meanwhile, the results in the Jammu region would be the one that I will certainly keep an eye on. After beating former CM and Congress heavyweight Ghulam Nabi Azad in Udhampur and winning the Jammu seat by a massive margin, the BJP is expected to seen a big rise from its earlier tally of 11 seats. BJP chief Amit Shah certainly had these results in mind when he spoke of his grand plans of a BJP led regime in Srinagar. With 36 seats on the line, the BJP has to perform out of its skin and go past the 30 mark and to be in a position to dictate terms. Irrespective of May results, one needs to keep in mind that the state elections will be a different ball game altogether. The party lacks a leader who can help it do well, something that Modi did earlier this year. Moreover, the saffron outfit will have to see off the challenge posed by the likes of the Congress as well as Bhim Singh's Panther's Party (JKNPP) which have strong presence in certain pockets. The PDP too is said to have made some inroads in this part of the state.

Finally, how can one forget the third region - Ladakh. Though it may not find a place in the name of the state, it is fast emerging as one of the most visited tourist destinations in the country. With a population comprising of Muslims and Buddhists, the people here elect 4 seats to the state legislature. Probably, it is because of this that Ladakh does not have much of a say in most matters that affect Jammu Kashmir. However, that may change in case the PDP and the BJP end up winning equal or close to equal number of seats in the other two regions put together. In that scenario, the 4 seats here may decide who heads the next regime in Srinagar. In the big polls, the BJP won the seat by a margin of just 36 votes. Considering that the margin of victory was very less, it is difficult to say who has the edge in Ladakh in the forthcoming polls.


For more posts on the Jammu Kashmir 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)

FLOP SHOW

ANALYZING INC's DEFEAT IN 2014 LOK SABHA POLLS

Courtesy: NDTV

Earlier this week, the much awaited Anthony Committee submitted its report detailing the causes that led to the Congress' disastrous defeat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. With many leaders in the party questioning Rahul Gandhi and his style of leadership, it was expected that the commission would suggest certain 'tough' decisions to revive the 128 year old party. However, while speaking to the media after submitting his report, the former Defence Minister exonerated Baba of all charges; in fact, the former MP went on to praise the two Gandhis for doing their best during the election campaign. The fears that most of us had was confirmed; instead of finding the multiple issues that plague the grand old party and addressing them, the Gandhis had flatly refused to accept their share of the blame. In a similar move, the mother and son duo had earlier, in the aftermath of the May 16 results, offered mere 'lip service' by offering to resign in the CWC meet, a move that was immediately 'rejected' by their chamchas. It is easy to understand why the former Kerala CM has given a clean chit to the first family. Anthony has always been a loyalist and though he might be in the last leg of his political career, he has no reason to infuriate his bosses. Although he may have his own set of reason for not 'unearthing' the truth, we do not have any such compulsions or obligations towards the dynasty. The following are the reasons that I believe led to the Congress recording its worst showing in the polls held earlier this year.

Leadership Crisis: The prime reason for the debacle of the Congress party in the recently concluded polls was the 'uninspiring and insipid' leadership of Rahul Gandhi. Appointed as the party's vice president at a function in the Talkatora stadium in New Delhi, the Gandhi scion began on a rather impressive note as he unveiled his plans for a grand vamp up of the century old INC. Unfortunately for Rahul and his outfit, this was the only bright spot in a rather lackluster report card so far. Much like his below par performances in the Bihar and Uttar Pradesh state elections, the 'strategy-consultant' managed or should we say 'mis-managed' the campaign that saw the INC register its worst performance in its electoral history. His pet projects including holding primaries to select nominees for parliamentary seats, a move hailed by some as 'far-sighted', proved to complete failures with all candidates selected via this process failing to make the cut. The so-called youth icon's interview to Times Now Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami which exposed his complete disconnect from the issues that matter most to the masses made him the laughing stalk of the nation. Even during the campaign, many senior leaders in the party had complained that the VP was being 'misguided' by a coterie of leaders who are out-of-touch with ground reality. All throughout the campaign, Baba failed to strike a chord with the audiences, an art that his mother has mastered. With Narendra Modi projecting himself as a strong alternative to the passiveness displayed by the UPA, Rahul stood no chance. Forget convincing the rest of the country to vote for the Congress, the Amethi MP's victory margin in his own constiuency was reduced to just over a lakh votes.

Lack of strong regional leaders: Another factor that contributed to the party's embarrassing tally was the fact that it did not have strong state leaders who could get the votes. While the BJP swept most of the states where it was in power, the INC failed to open its mark in as many as 14 states including some big ones like Gujarat, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. In all these states, the saffron outfit had leaders who were empowered to take decisions on their own. On the contrary, lack of powerful state chiefs has been the problem with the Congress ever since the Indira era. The outfit has never promoted strong CMs since the Gandhi family looks upon them as rivals to their power. After the resignation of Ashok Chavan as the CM of Maharashtra following the Adarsh expose, the high command sent its trusted aide Prithviraj Chavan from New Delhi instead of choosing someone like Narayan Rane who had spent much of his career in the state. On similar lines, in spite of leading the INC to a close victory in the 2012 state polls (Link), the party preferred former MP Vijay Bahuguna and then Harish Rawat over the likes of Harak Singh Rawat and Yashpal Arya. And while mentioning this point, how can one forget the treatment meted out to YSRCP chief Jaganmohan Reddy. After the untimely death of former Andhra strongman Y S Rajashekar Reddy, the Gandhis refused to give the CM's post to his son Jaganmohan, fearing that he might become 'bigger' than the party and its top leadership in the southern state. As Reddy junior left the party and launched a new outfit - the YSR Congress Party, he was hounded by the CBI and jailed for 18 months. Without any mass leader and following the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh, the INC was routed as the TDP-BJP combine and the YSRCP shared the spoils.

Corruption: If there was one issue that dominated the election campaign it was corruption. Anna Hazare's indefinite strike at Jantar Mantar in August 2011, the formation of the Kejriwal led Aam Admi Party (AAP) and its victory in the Delhi state assembly gave hope to over a billion Indians that our nation could finally be cured of the cancer that had engulfed it for over six decades. Unfortunately for the Congress, the plethora of scams that rocked the UPA in the latter half of its second term put it on the back foot. The scam in the allocation of Coal blocks at a time when Manmohan Singh was in charge of this ministry tainted the 'clean' image of PM. The 2G allocation scam dubbed by many as the biggest scam in the history of India saw the arrest of former Telecom Minister A Raja as well as DMK chief Karunanidhi's daughter Kanimozhi, further embarrassing the government. The Choppergate scam, the CWG scam, the allegations of graft in the Antrix deal and Railgate, hit the credibility of the UPA regime as well as the INC. At a time when all the parties were hitting at the Congress over its failure to tackle this menace, the party did not make the fight against corruption as one of the main focus points of its campaign. Obviously, after facing so many allegations of graft, there was no way anyone would take the party's resolve to get the country rid of this menace seriously. Probably, after the elevation of Modi as the BJP's PM candidate, the INC thought that 'Secularism' and its co-called 'Idea of India' would help it brush aside all charges of corruption and help it win a consecutive third term. This proved to be a miscalculation as the results suggest.

Wrong Allies: Another factor that led to the INC do badly in the polls was the fact that it did not have the right partners on its side. Mamata Bannerjee walked out of the UPA over the issue of price rise. Had the Congress leadership been able to placate her, the two parties would have easily bagged nearly 35-40 seats in Bengal. Months before the elections, its southern ally - the DMK walked out of the UPA over the government's soft stand towards Sri Lanka. While the BJP was joining hands with many outfits all across the country, the INC was left with just four major partners - the NCP, the National Conference in Kashmir, the RLD in Western UP and the RJD in Bihar. Much like the INC, even its allies were facing the heat ahead of the General elections. Moreover, in spite of the bifurcation of Andhra, KCR refused to merge his outfit into the INC. In three key southern states - Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Andhra, the Congress was entering the battlefield without any strong partner on its side. There were reports that the party leadership was in talks with 'like-minded' parties like the Jaganmohan Reddy's YSRCP, Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF, Nitish Kumar's JD-U and Mayawati's BSP to forge pre-poll alliances. However, unfortunately for the Congress, none of these materialized. While the INC got 44 seats, its allies fared even worse - the NC and the RLD failed to open their accounts, Pawar's NCP was reduced to six seats whereas Lalu's comeback was all hype and no substance. Actually, the other allies of the BJP in the NDA put together got more seats than the INC in 2014.

Communication: The troika of the Gandhis and Manmohan Singh that had taken the UPA to a victory in 2009 failed to communicate with the people in the last five years. Former PM Singh was never known to be an effective orator. However, he had managed to send a strong signal to the electorate by taking the onus of passing the Indo-US Nuclear deal on himself. In the second term though, he repeatedly came under attacks of the the media for failing to take on corruption head on. He hardly addressed any press conference and failed to convey his views to the masses. Equally to blame is vice president Rahul Gandhi. The younger scion of the party's first family who is known to be a reluctant politician has to take his share of blame too. When the entire country was discussing issues like price rise, corruption and women's empowerment, Baba never felt the need to speak to the media. Of course, he did tear the cabinet resolution giving relief to convicted parliamentarians at a pres conference early this year but this was a clear case of too little too late. This apart from the fact that his actions had undermined the stature of the PM. To add to the INC's woes, its biggest vote catcher - party president Sonia Gandhi's ill health prevented her from campaigning actively. On the contrary, the BJP's electoral strategy was more focused. Narendra Modi used his twitter handle to connect with the people and address his views on issues, both big and small. Obviously, while the BJP created history by going past the 272 mark, the INC could not even finish with one sixth of that tally.

IMAGES 

(1) Courtesy: NDTV
Original: Sonia and Rahul Gandhi may offer resignations after Congress rout: Sources (Link)

IN THE DOCK

THE PICTURE IS LOOKING GLOOMY FOR THE NCP

Courtesy: India Today

It seems that like the Congress party, its alliance partners in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government too are facing the heat ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. And the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is no exception. Formed in 1999 by the trio of Sharad Pawar, Tariq Anwar and P A Sangma after they were expelled from the INC for hitting out at Sonia Gandhi over the foreign origin issue, the outfit joined hands with the Congress in Maharashtra months after its inception; the alliance in the state has been strong ever since and the partners have been in power for 14 years in a row now. Similarly, it entered into an electoral agreement with the Congress, conveniently compromising on the principle of its formation for electorally benefits during the 2004 General polls and has been a constituent of the UPA ever since. Of course, there were speculations of Sharad Pawar dumping his former party and allying with the Third Front in 2009; this was furthered strengthened by some regional players suggesting his candidature for the post of the Prime Minister. However, with his outfit managing to win just nine seats and the INC surpassing the figure of 200 on its own, the Maratha leader's hopes of occupying 7 Race Course were dashed. Half a decade later, things have only got worse for Pawar. On the eve of the big elections in May 2014 and the state polls scheduled few months later, the NCP is looking in bad shape; many believe that Pawar's outfit has lost the battle even before it begins. Here is a list of four reasons as to why I would not place my money on the NCP to do well in the two elections.

Sharad Pawar to quit: Yes, finally the big man has announced his retirement from active politics. Speaking to media persons, senior NCP leader Praful Patel announced that the Union Agriculture Minister would not contest the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, paving way for the next generation of leaders to take the party forward. Having joined politics in the 1960s, Pawar has served as the Chief Minister on four different occasions besides being the Leader of Opposition in the state assembly when the BJP-Sena combine was in power. One of the most successful politician of his generation, he was given the all important Defence portfolio in the Narsimha Rao cabinet. However, the NCP supremo has been involved in controversies throughout his 'distinguished' career. Like the Lalus and the Mulayums, he is accused of being involved in several scams and shielding people with criminal background. An opportunist, he was never averse to joining, splitting or allying with parties just for political gains. Probably, his biggest failure of his career has been his inefficient way of administering Mumbai properly during the serial blasts in 1993 and the riots that followed. Even in his tenure as the Agriculture minister in UPA II, several serious charges were levied against him, including the Lavasa project where environmental norms where openly flouted. I am not sure whether that tight slap from Harvinder Singh played a part in his decision to quit. If yes, I would sincerely like to thank him for the great service that he has done to the nation. However, there is a small condition that Patel specified in the press release which is a bit of disappointment. Pawar is ready to continue his tryst with politics (and corruption) and is likely to be elected to the Rajya Sabha from Maharashtra this March. While he will still be a part of the political stage in 2014 and is expected to campaign heavily for the party, his retirement is surely impact the fortunes of the NCP, especially in western Maharashtra, which has been its traditional stronghold.

Anti-incumbency: The NCP has a record which very few regional parties can boast of in our Rajneeti - it has stayed in power for over 14 years in Maharashtra. Winning three elections in a row, so what if it was in alliance with the INC is something to be proud of. However, with great powers come greater responsibilities. While the two partners have given decent governments to the state over the years, the many scandals that have come to light, especially the Irrigation scam that led to the resignation of NCP leader and Sharad Pawar's nephew Ajit Pawar is set to have a negative impact on the outfit's performance. Though it has played second fiddle to the INC throughout the three terms, the anti-incumbency sentiment which is looming large in the state is expected to adversely affect its numbers. In fact, there is a bigger problem for the party to tackle. The Pawar-led party has also been a part of the UPA since 2004. The failure of the Manmohan Singh regime, especially in its second innings is likely to hurt all its constituents. NCP supremo Sharad Pawar has been the Union Agriculture minister for nearly a decade now. The high inflation rates and the sorry plight of farmers in most parts of the country, mainly in his home turf of Maharashtra is giving the party nightmares. On the other hand, the Shiv Sena which has been the NCP's rival in the state has improved its strength, looking much better than it was about two years ago. Also, the projection of Gujarat CM Narendra Modi is likely to benefit the saffron partners in Maharashtra. While there is nothing to suggest that there is a pro-NDA wave in the region, it is but natural for it to gain from the failures of the UPA regime. In related development, Mayank Gandhi has said that AAP will put up candidates on all seats that the NCP will contest.  

Souring relations: The relations between the Congress and the NCP have been far from smooth over the years. I am not sure whether the Congress President has forgotten Pawar's rebellion over her appointment to the post. Although reports of friction amongst the two parties, both in state and the Centre have emerged at regular intervals, the war of words has only escalated in recent times. In December last year, the Agriculture minister had said that country needed strong leaders like Indira Gandhi in what has been viewed as a dig at the serving PM. Reacting to Manmohan Singh's scathing attack on Narendra Modi's candidature for the post of the Prime Minister, Pawar advised the PM to use his words carefully. Now it seems that the discussions over seat sharing arrangement in Maharashtra is further souring the relations between the two allies. In 2009 polls, the Congress contested on 26 seats winning 17 of them whereas the NCP finished first only on 8 of the 22 which it fought on. It is believed that the INC leadership, including CM Prithviraj Chavan are keen to contest more seats this time. Considering the precarious situation that the NCP finds itself in, the party high command believes that it stands a better chance to fight the BJP-Sena partnership compared to its partner. I wonder what makes the grand old party think this way? At a press conference, Chavan suggested a new formula for the 2014 General elections - 29:19. On the other hand, the Maratha leader is in no mood to compromise on this. It will be interesting to see how this concludes in the days to come. Meanwhile, Pawar has made it clear that his party will fight the Lok Sabha in places outside Maharashtra without any consensus with the Congress.

The battle of succession: There is no doubt that Sharad Pawar is a mass leader. Irrespective of how many parties he has changed, his core vote bank has always stood by him. The NCP today is more or less synonymous with him. He is the party's main vote catcher and it is largely due to his presence that it has managed to survive in his home state while sinking into oblivion in other parts. Though the Maratha strongman is expected to be at the helm of affairs for much of 2014, it should not be surprising if there erupts a war of succession amongst the second rung leaders to led the party in the post Sharad Pawar era. The strongest contender is Ajit Pawar, the nephew of the Union Agriculture minister. In fact, it was he who vacated his Parliamentary seat of Baramati for his uncle in 1991. He has served as a cabinet minister in the state government for a long time. Like the NCP supremo, he is a mass leader and he too has been engulfed in numerous controversies throughout his career. Short tempered and unambiguous, he was in the news for the wrong reasons last year; responding to a query on the drought crisis in the state, he sarcastically asked whether he should urinate to get waters in the dam. It looks like he lacks the political acumen of his uncle. Supriya Sule, the daughter of Sharad Pawar may also stake a claim at the top shot. Apart from some social work, her only qualification is that she is the daughter of senior Pawar. In 2010, there were some allegations that she and her dad owned some stake in the IPL Pune franchise. State Home minister R R Patil who heads the NCP in the legislative assembly and the party's lower caste face Chhagan Bhujbal are also nursing ambitions to head the outfit. Former Union minister Praful Patel is the dark horse and he may emerge as the consensus candidate to keep the various warring factions together.

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: India Today
Original: Difficult to implement Food Bill without adequate funds, says Sharad Pawar (Link)

RIOTS IN UP AND ELECTIONS 2014 - Part II

HOW THE RIOTS IN WESTERN UP WILL AFFECT THE FORTUNES OF PARTIES

Catch 22 situation: Yes, that is precisely the situation that Congress finds itself in Uttar Pradesh. In 2009, following Varun Gandhi's communal speech in his constituency of Pilhibhit, the Congress surpassed all expectations winning 21 seats after minority votes swung in its favor. Back then, it was heralded as the revival of the grand old party in the country's most populous state with party leaders

Rahul meeting a Jat delegation in Delhi

and workers crediting Rahul Baba for the miracle. Putting behind the disaster in Bihar in 2010, the INC, buoyed by its performance in the national polls, made its crown prince the face of its campaign here in 2012. Probably, confident of a good show following the hype around him in the media, Rahul Gandhi even tore the manifesto of the Samajwadi Party during a rally. However, it was Akhilesh and his outfit which walked away with the crown as the INC struggled to reach a paltry figure of 28. Though the Nehru-Gandhi bastions may be safe for the time being, there is absolutely no indication that the Congress may do well in 2014 polls in UP. As far as the western areas of the state are concerned, the conviction of its face in this region - Rasheed Masood for fraudulently nominating candidates during his tenure as the Union Health minister in 1990 is a big blow. The minority leader had quit the SP to join the INC in 2011 after a fall out with Azam Khan. The Congress' hopes of doing well here by allying with Ajit Singh's RLD too has been hit following the riots. As such, some in the party believe that they may do well if they discontinue the alliance with Singh and go all alone. What is adding to its woes is the fact that Jats seem to be shifting towards the BJP after it projected Modi as its PM candidate. The visit of the PM Dr Singh, the UPA Chairperson Mrs Gandhi and her son Rahul to relief camps to 'assess' the situation is nothing but a publicity stunt, with an eye on the national elections. Meanwhile, in a bid to attract minority votes into its fold, Congress leader Rashid Alvi has criticized the SP government of failing to protect the Muslims and calling the riots here, worse than the ones in Gujarat. Reservation for the Jat community, something that they are demanding for some time now, will tilt the balance in its favor.

The right platform: For a party that rose on to national politics following the demolition of the Babri Masjid in 1992, it is surprising that the BJP is in dire straits in its former bastion. Even in 2012, its performance under Hindutva icon Uma Bharati has been disappointing. However, on the eve of the

BJP President Rajnath Singh with Modi

General Elections, things seem to be finally going the saffron outfit's way. The nomination of tainted leader Narendra Modi as its PM nominee has galvanized the cadre. Aware that UP will be the key if he wants to occupy the top post, Modi has deputed his trusted aide - Amit Shah who has been accused of his role in the infamous Godhra riots in 2002, to manage his campaign in the state. In what was a clear case of raising the communal agenda, Shah paid a visit to the Ram Janmabhoomi site in Ayodhya, reiterating his party's stand to construct a Ram temple there. The crackdown by the SP government on the Ayodhya Yatra organized by the VHP, a constituent of the Sangh Parivar has been criticized by the party's top leadership. And a few months later, the riots in Muzaffarnagar has given another opportunity to the party to win votes. Although the state government has slapped cases against two of its MLAs - Suresh Rana and Sangeet Som under the stringent National Security Act (NSA) for whipping up communal flares, the party has in fact, felicitated them. If reports coming from the region are to be believed, the Jats are moving towards the BJP, impressed by the charisma of its leader, Mr Modi. Such a shift will be a major boost to the party. For the Gujarat CM who his known for his brash style of politics, the communal violence in Muzaffarnagar may propel him to New Delhi, similar to the incidents in Godhra back in 2002, which made him the most popular leader in Gujarat.

The sleeping giant: In 2007, Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) supremo beat all odds to script a fairy tale victory by crossing the half way mark on its own, courtesy 'Social Engineering'. However, after completing her five year term, which was marked by brazen corruption and shameless self

BSP supremo Mayawati

glorification, Behenji was routed by her bete noire - SP's Mulayum Singh in the next state polls. The sly vixen that she is, Mayawati kept a low profile following the electoral drubbing. Like a python waiting for the prey to walk into the trap, she waited all along for the young Akhilesh to falter. With the SP government failing to deliver on all fronts in the last two years, the BSP will try to maximize its poll prospects by attacking the regime for its failure to control the riots. With the SP and the BSP being the two main political parties in the state, the mistakes made by one generally helps the other. As such, it should not be surprising if Mayawati finishes first in the four way contest for Uttar Pradesh during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The BSP leader has always nurtured prime ministerial ambitions; you can expect her to go all out against the Yadav regime in the coming months. Another weapon that Mayawati has in her arsenal is, as mentioned earlier - Social Engineering. Like in 2007 when she romped home to power after weaving together the Dalit-Brahmin alliance, Maya may do exceedingly well in western UP if she can chose the right candidates.

For the previous post on this topic, click here (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Rahul meeting a Jat delegation in Delhi

Source: Indian National Congress - Official Website (Link)

(2) BJP President with Modi

Source: BJP - Official Website (Link)

(3) BSP supremo Mayawati
Source: The Hindu - Mayawati sees SP-BJP conspiracy (Link)