AKHADA - Part IV

THE RESULTS

In a state where the BJP had won just four seats in 2009, its tally of 47 five years down the line is simply remarkable, especially considering the fact that the saffronists never had a recognizable face in Haryana and its organization here was virtually absent in most of the places till sometime back. However, the elevation of Narendra Modi and his many rallies in various parts of the state seemed to have stuck a chord with the voters. The Congress on the other hand was virtually wiped out; the party which was in power for a decade was relegated to the third position. The INLD whose top brass is in jail in the multi-crore recruitment scam too failed to make a comeback as the NaMo bandwagon swept it aside. Kuldep Bishnoi who was nurturing hopes of becoming the next CM of the state paid a heavy price for breaking off ties with the BJP as his party - the HJC managed to bag just two seats.

The BJP's victory in the Haryana 2014 state polls is simply astounding, perhaps even more impressive than its performance in Maharashtra. The party leveraged the anti-incumbency and the corruption allegations against the Congress and the INLD to its advantage. Of course, the image of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi did play a key role in the numbers that the saffron camp got. Besides, an exodus of leaders from these two parties helped it consolidate the non-Jat votes in the states. Moreover, its decision to cut off all ties with Kuldeep Bishnoi in spite of an understanding with him prior to the 2014 General Polls also proved to be a right decision. Massive infighting and the various allegations of corruption against the Hooda regime saw the Congress drop 25 seats. The INLD too suffered a severe low as the Chautala failed to win especially in the non-Jat regions of the state. Meanwhile, Kuldeep Bishnoi had a horrid time; his decision to refuse the BJP's offer of 25 seats was a blunder with his party ending up with just two seats.

Again, the biggest winner out of this is BJP President Amit Shah. The very fact that the party won a simple majority in a state where it lacked even basic organizational setting till a few months ago speaks volumes of his ability. With the wins in Maharashtra and Haryana under his belt, Modi's Man Friday has shut all his detractors both within the party and outside, who had questioned his strategy during the by-elections. Also, the victory is also a big thumbs up to PM Narendra Modi and the work he has done so far during his tenure. The election defeat could signal the end of road for former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda. In spit of the growing clamor against him from the likes of Kumari Selja and ABC, the high command had kept its faith in the Jat leader. However, following such a disastrous defeat, he may find it hard to stage a comeback in the near future. The Chautalas and their party, the INLD too flopped as the results have shown. Even Dushyant Chautala lost from the family bastion of Uchana Kalan. Winding up the list is Kuldeep Bishnoi. The HJC chief who dreamed of becoming the next CM of the state could only win two seats, a decline of 4 from the 2009 state elections.

For more posts on the Haryana 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)

The Chart displaying the results was created on Meta-Chart (Link)

MAHASANGRAM - Part IV

THE ISSUES THAT MATTER

Of the four states that go to the poll this year, the biggest is the western state of Maharashtra. After being in power for the last 15 years, the results of the Lok Sabha have come as a jolt to the ruling combine. Together the Congress and its ally, the NCP were literally demolished as they faced a strong opposition - the 'Mahayuti' that the saffron allies, the Shiv Sena and the BJP had stitched together. Even the presence of Raj Thackeray's MNS could not benefit the UPA like they did in 2009 when the anti-incumbency votes were split into the two fractions of the Sena. While many would have expected the NDA to sweep Maharashtra, the recent poll setbacks to the saffron outfit in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradsh (Link) seems to have put a serious question before the BJP - can it replicate its superlative performance even in the state assembly polls in winter, especially in Mumbai where it has been warming the Opposition benches since ages. The Congress is trying to get over its disastrous defeat; retaining Maharashtra could signal the beginning of a long pending revival. Meanwhile, state politics is incomplete without considering the three regional parties. Unlike the heartland, the two national parties are not the main players here. Let us see what parameters will impact the outcome of the Maharashtra state assembly polls in 2014.

As they say, united we win and divided we fall. The results of the October elections could simply boil down to the fact that which coalition is able to sustain itself in spite of all the drama over the seat sharing talks. Both the Congress-NCP as well as the Sena-BJP know very well that it is in their best interest to make sure that their respective partnerships survive. However, less than a month before voting, the UPA and the NDA as we know them today, are witnessing media war over seat sharing arrangements. The saffron alliance which stretches back to 25 years is looking extremely shaking; the BJP, high on its earth-shattering performance in the General Polls has rejected the 119-178 formula brokered by Bal Thackeray and Pramod Mahajan in the early 90s. While the state BJP wants to fight on 130 seats, the Sena has refused to give anything more than 125. Besides, Uddhav Thackeray's portrayal as the alliance's CM candidate by his outfit has not been taken kindly by the BJP. On the other hand, the NCP has upped the ante; Pawar's party wants to be an equal player in the coalition. After winning twice as many parliamentary seats as the INC in May, the regional parties wants to have a relook at the earlier formula. Meanwhile, the plea seems to have fallen on deaf years as the Congress has refused to back down from its stand. With cracks developing in the two fronts, it remains to be seen if the allies can bury their differences and patch up. Failing that, it could be a five cornered contest for Maharashtra - BJP vs SS vs Congress vs NCP vs MNS. In fact, what could be more interesting is the realignment of forces; the NCP could tie up with either the BJP or even the Shiv Sena; the BJP could also join hands with the MNS and so on.

As if the tussle over the seat sharing was not enough, the Congress and the NCP are fighting anti-incumbency stretching over a period of 15 long years. The two parties came together after the saffron allies were beaten in the 1999 state polls and ever since have been in power in Mumbai. They were also a part of the Manmohan government for two consecutive terms. The results of the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls has certainly sent shock waves to the incumbent regime. The two partners could only get six seats even as the mega coalition of the BJP bagged the remaining 42. There are speculations that the results may be repeated yet again later this year. The UPA somehow managed to stay afloat in 2009 thanks to Raj Thackeray's MNS splitting the anti-establishment votes. After drawing a blank in the May elections, the MNS will find it difficult to cut into the traditional Sena votes. In the aftermath of the Lok Sabha defeat, there were calls to sack the serving CM Chauhan. However, he managed to stay afloat with the blessings of the High Command. On their part, the ruling combine is busying showcasing the development projects that were completed during its tenure including the Mumbai-Worli Sealink, the Mumbai Monorail, the Mumbai Metro and so on. However, whether the voters buy this argument or not is something that will be clear only on the voting day - October 15.

Remember the Adarsh Housing Society Scam. Yes, the same scandal wherein flats in Mumbai's posh Colaba area which were to be allocated for the widows of Kargil martyrs were grabbed by top several politicians. It was the same episode that saw the sacking of the then CM Ashok Chavan. Corruption is for sure, going to be one of the biggest issues in the upcoming state elections. In fact, three other former CMs, all belonging to the Congress seem to have been in the list of beneficiaries including Vilasrao Deshmukh, Sushilkumar Shinde and Shivajirao Patil Nilangekar. This has become a big embarrassment for the INC. On the other hand, the NCP finds itself in trouble in the multi-crore Irrigation Scam. Deputy CM Ajit Da who was the state irrigation minister for two terms is accused of siphoning off crores of rupees. Besides, his irresponsible statements like the one he made in April last year when he asked if he should urinate into dams to fill water has been panned both by the Opposition and the public.

While corruption has become synonymous with the Congress, the ghost of Babri Masjid and the Godhra riots have kept haunting the BJP for long. Add to it the Sena whose founder Balasaheb had openly asked for voted in the name of religion. 'Communalism' is one of the biggest talking points before that state polls. The force feeding of a Muslim employee in the Maharashtra Bhavan by Sena MPs during the time of Ramazan is going to be raked up by the Congress and the NCP. The ruling parties on their part have already given 5 percent reservation for the minority community apart from 16 percent reservation for Marathas. Similarly, one can also expect the two Senas to raise the 'Marathi Manoos' or the 'Sons of the Soil' argument.  Anti-northern Indian stirs and protests may become common in the coming days.

For long, there have been demands for a separate state of Vidarbha to be carved out of eastern Maharashtra. With the creation of Telangana, this clamour has only increased. In this election season, you should not be surprised if these demands only grow stronger. On this issue, even allies can have a difference of opinion. For long, the Sena has vehemently opposed any kind of division; on the other hand, the BJP has always favored smaller states. Another related topic is the future of Belgaum. Presently in northern Karnataka, there is a significant section of the population here that feels that they should be a part of the Marathi state. However, this claim has been rejected by Karnataka on repeated occasions.

Finally, let us have a look at the leaders who could hold the key as to which party or alliance does well. Sharad Pawar is perhaps, the tallest leader in the state today. However, there is little doubt that his political fortunes, like that of his party are on the decline. After the NCP was routed in most of its strongholds, it is important for the Maratha strongman and his outfit to do well in the October polls. He has taken a big gamble by ditching the Congress and it remains to be seen if it pays off. His nephew Ajit Pawar has made clear his chief ministerial ambitions in a recent interview. With Narayan Rane being appointed as the head of the party's electoral campaign, incumbent CM Prithviraj Chavan has his task cut out. While he has to make sure that the INC does well, he also has to hope that his followers win more seats than those in the Rane camp. Meanwhile, Ashok Chavan can be the dark horse in the CM's race. However, giving the top post to him could backfire on the Congress thanks to the stigma of the Adarsh Scam. In the saffron alliance, Uddhav Thackeray has a point to prove; he can put to rest all the questions over his leadership if he can lead the Sena to an impressive tally. Breaking his family tradition, the Sena pramukh has made it clear that he wants to occupy the CM's post. Finally, for the BJP, the untimely death of Gopinath Munde has jeopardized their plans. Other leaders including Nitin Gadkari lack popular support outside their respective regions.

For more posts in this series: Mahasangram (Link)

AKHADA - Part III

THINGS TO WATCH OUT FOR IN HARYANA POLLS 2014

1. Will the dual power center hurt the Congress? For ten years, Bhupinder Singh Hooda was the undisputed leader of the grand old party in Haryana. For the trust that the Gandhi family out in him, he delivered; two consecutive wins in the state besides sending 9 MPs to the Parliament when the UPA was in power in New Delhi. The defeat of the INC at the hands of the BJP in the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls has put a question mark over the future of the incumbent CM. The murmurs of discontent against Hooda that were brewing within the state unit of the Congress for some time now are now out in the open. After Ajay Yadav threatened to quit the party if it projected Hooda as its CM candidate, the Congress has constituted a new committee to put up a unite face. In what is seen as a move to cut dissidents, Yadav has been made the head of the INC's campaign in its bid to win a third straight term. Another Hooda baiter, former MP Kumari Selja too is a part of this group. However, to balance the power equations, the CM and his son Deepak who is currently the only Congress MP from Haryana too have been included in the committee. Now, the problem with such an arrangement is that it has created two camps within the state unit. This could seriously jeopardize the process of candidate selection with each faction trying to get nominations for its followers. Moreover, in case the INC wins, selecting the next Haryana CM could be next to impossible for the Congress.

2. Is BJP the 'B team' of the Congress? Remember that time, earlier this year when the BJP used to accuse the Aam Admi Party (AAP) of being the 'B team' of the Congress. A look at the BJP in the state and you will realize that a large number of its leaders here are political turncoats who have switched sides ahead of the polls. In the 2009 assembly elections, the saffron outfit won just 4 seats. In other words, it was one of the many minor players in Haryana. However, the elevation of former Gujarat CM Narendra Modi as the outfit's Prime Ministerial candidate changed the fortunes of the party. Of the seven seats that the saffronists won here in May this year, at least three including Ro Inderjit Singh (Rewari) and Dharambir Singh (Bhiwani) had changed sides just before the polls. The number of leaders from other parties joining the BJP has only increased post the NDA's spectacular victory. However, the big question is whether the party has a strong face in the state who can get them the votes, especially after the split in the alliance with HJC's Kuldeep Bishnoi. Also, in case the BJP wins the polls, who will head the next regime in the state. Besides, like with the Congress, it is likely that the party splits into several camps, each headed by one of these newly joined leaders, thereby making ticket distribution a difficult process.

3. The Race for the Third Spot: With the two national parties battling it out for the top two spots, it remains to be seen who will finish third in the Haryana state polls. If the election throws up a hung assembly, like in 2009, the regional player with the highest seats could dictate terms. Probably, the strongest contender is the Chautala led INLD. In spite of the fact that its supremo is behind the bars, the Lok Dal is seeing a surge; it won two seats in the last parliamentary polls with its leader Dushyant beating the HJC chief. That brings us to Kuldeep Bishnoi, the son of former state CM Bhajan Lal who has broken off all ties with the BJP after it refused to keep its word on a 45:45 seat arrangement made prior to the Lok Sabha 2014. Although it lost both of the parliamentary seats it contest in May this year, Bishnoi continues to remain popular. In a recent poll, he was voted as the second most popular CM candidate. Moreover, he has joined hands with Venod Sharma's Jan Chetna Party (JCP). Former state home minister Gopal Kanda of the HLC too is eyeing this third spot. The BSP is seen by many as a strong contender and is expected to do well, especially in areas where there is a sizable Dalit population.

4. Did AAP make the right decision? The Aam Admi Party (AAP) which was born out of the Anna Hazare led anti-corruption crusade finds itself in a big mess thanks to a host of blunders by its top leadership. After storming Delhi, Kejriwal's decision to resign from the government following its failure to pass the Lokpal Bill after being in power for just 49 days was seen by many as an act of cowardice. Instead of concentrating on some key seats in the Lok Sabha, the AAP nominated candidates in most of the seats through out the country only managed to win just 4. Moreover, differences in opinion amongst top leaders has further put question marks over the future of the outfit. At this juncture, I think AAP's decision of not contesting the Haryana state polls is a blunder. Kejriwal led party has a good presence both in neighboring Punjab and in Delhi. As such, there are high chances that AAP may do well here. Also, corruption is a big issue in the state polls and the outfit could have used this as an opportunity to grab a few seats.


For more posts on the Haryana 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)

AKHADA - Part II

ISSUES AHEAD OF THE 2014 HARYANA STATE POLLS

The INC's decimation in the recently concluded parliamentary elections, especially in Haryana has shaken the political scenario in the state. After being in power here for a decade, incumbent CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda was left red-faced as the INC managed to win just one seat; his son Deepak was the lone party candidate to make the cut. Meanwhile, the saffron outfit is on a surge. After painting the state in orange, the BJP 's poll prospects have been further boosted after several prominent leaders from the INC and the INLD have joined it. So confident is the party of its chances that it has refused to 'honor' its electoral accord with the HJC. Crying foul, Bishnoi now has tied up with Venod Sharma's JCP and vowed to teach the BJP a lesson. With the polls to the state assembly being scheduled on October 15, let us have a look at the issues that are likely to play in the minds of the masses as they vote to decide who form the next regime in Haryana.

In a party that is not known to give a free hand to its state leaders, Haryana CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda is an exception. In spite of the fact that even a Gandhi loyalist like Kumari Selja has been accusing the incumbent CM of 'neglecting' her constituency of Ambala for long, the son of former freedom fighter Ranbir Hooda has largely had a free hand in the state. After all, he was the one who led the Congress to a famous victory in 2004 polls and then managed to stay on to power for a second consecutive term by 'poaching' MLAs from Bishnoi's HJC and joining hands with some independent. Moreover, the state contributed nine MPs to both innings of the UPA government. Sadly though, all that seems to have changed, quite drastically in the last six months. The anti-incumbency sentiment is at a all time high. After the drubbing the Lok Sabha polls, several leaders have come out and openly hit out at the CM with some even crossing over to the BJP. In a recent rally at Kaithal that he attended along with PM Narendra Modi, he was booed by what he later termed as a crowd comprising of BJP supporters. While there may be some element of truth in the CM's remarks, there is little doubt that his popularity is at its lowest.

Anna Hazare's crusader against corruption way back in August 2011 shook the conscience of the nation and ever since, it has become one of the biggest issues in all polls in the country. In Haryana, a slew of corruption allegations against the ruling regime has put the Congress on the back foot. Perhaps, the most famous, rather 'infamous' is the one involving Sonia Gandhi's son-in-law Robert Vadra. He has been accused of purchasing land in Haryana at throw-away prices causing severe embarrassment for the INC and its top family. On the other hand, the main Opposition in the state, Chautala's Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) too is in the dock after its top two leaders - former CM and party supremo Om Prakash Chautala and his son Ajay Singh were sent behind the bars after being convicted in the Teacher's Recruitment Scam in January 2013. With the BJP making this as their main poll plank like it did in the General Polls earlier this year, the two main political parties in Haryana have a lot to answer.

Ahead of the state elections, the ruling Congress is battling dissidents within its ranks. Former Rajya Sabha MP Venod Sharma who was known to be close to Hooda has left the party to form the JCP. Kumari Selja has become more vocal in her differences with the CM whereas Jat strongman Birendra Singh has joined the saffron camp. Minister in state cabinet Ajay Yadav had threatened to resign from the party if it projected Hooda as its CM candidate. The party has constituted a new committee and has been put the five time MLA from Rewari in charge of its campaign. Similarly, the arrest of its top two has left a power vacuum in the INLD. It is up to the remaining Chautalas - Abhay Chautala and his nephew Dushyant to oversee the outfit's campaign. Meanwhile, the one cause of concern for the BJP is that it does not have a strong leadership in the state. Most of its big leaders are political turncoats from other parties and it remains to be seen if they can work as a cohesive unit to win the elections. Even if the saffron outfit does win a majority on its own, selecting the CM will be an arduous task. HJC chief Kuldeep Bishnoi does not have any such problems, that is if it can get the numbers.

If the state assembly polls throws up a hung assembly, like in 2009, then the role of the regional parties will be interesting to see. After severing ties with the BJP, Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) leader Kuldeep Bishnoi has forged an alliance with Jan Chetna Party (JCP) chief Venod Sharma to fight the polls together. Sharma is the father of Manu Sharma, the main accused in the Jessica Lal murder. He will be hoping that like in the last assembly, he emerges as the 'Kingmaker'. However, for that he has to learn from his mistakes and make sure that he keeps his flock together. Former state home minister Gopal Kanda whose name figured in the suicide of air hostess Geetika Sharma has also floated his own outfit - the Haryana Lokhit Party (HLP). He has announced a host of populist measures if voted to power. Former Congress MLA Arvind Sharma has been projected by the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) as its CM candidate. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) has decided not to contest the state polls but has promised to expose corrupt candidates belonging to all parties.

Finally, the caste equations play a key role in state politics and this time it is not going to be any different. Jats are the largest community here and constitute 27 percent of the total population. The leadership of the two big parties here including incumbent CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda of the INC and the Chautalas of the INLD belong to this caste. The inclusion of the Jats in the central OBC quota by the UPA II is likely to help the Congress. The BJP is pinning its hopes on its Jat leader Chaudhary Birender Singh. Kuldeep Bishnoi is eyeing the non-Jat votes, including the 19 percent Dalit votes. The ruling party's decision to form the Haryana State Gurudwara Prabandak Committee (HSGPC) is clearly seen as a move to woo the 6 percent Sikh votes.


For more posts on the Haryana 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)

AKHADA - Part I

THE CONTENDERS

The defeat of the BJP in the recently concluded Bihar by-polls (Link) has raised question marks over the Modi wave and if it can help his party do well even in the states where it lacks a strong organizational base. Of course, this might well be true. There is no doubt that in the elections to the assemblies of Jammu Kashmir (Link) and Maharashtra (Link) scheduled later this year, the saffron outfit is going to find it extremely difficult to replicate the superlative figures that it got in the parliamentary polls from here. However, if there is one state post the May results where the party can genuinely fancy its chances, it has to be Haryana. Fighting the elections in alliance with Bishnoi's HJC, the saffronists obliterated the Congress, winning seven out of the eight seats that they contested. Apart from a resurgent BJP which is sensing victory, the Hooda regime is battling massive infighting within the state Congress unit, a cancer which if not cured soon may end up rendering the INC's electoral campaign 'toothless'. With a host of leaders from various political parties hoping on to the saffron bandwagon, the morale in the BJP camp is on an all time high. It is probably because of this that the party has refused to honor the seat sharing arrangement that it had finalized with the HJC, leading to the latter walking out of the NDA. At the same time, with most of the INLD top brass still behind the bars, the regional party is unlikely to be a serious challenger to either of the two national parties that are all set to dominate Haryana politics for some time now.

Trouble for the incumbent CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda started probably in September last year when Narendra Modi addressed a rally of ex-servicemen in Rewari following his anointment as the NDA's official PM candidate. With the Gujarat CM making several trips to Haryana in course of the campaign, his talk of development seems to have convinced at least several Congressmen including four serving MPs that their continued association with the grand old party could jeopardize their political careers. After the INC managed to win just a single seat in the Lok Sabha polls, the skeletons came tumbling out of the closet as many state leaders questioned Hooda's leadership abilities. While leader like Ajay Singh and Kumari Selja had questioned Hooda's leadership, others including Jitender Malik and Jat strongman Bhirender Singh joined the saffron camp. The high command finally seems to have woken up and has taken stock of the situation before it deteriorates further. In a bid to mollify senior leader Ajay Singh who had earlier resigned from the Hooda cabinet, the six time MLA has been put in charge of the party's election campaign committee in Haryana. As if to satisfy the numerous warring factions within its ranks, the seven member panel also includes the CM and his son - Deepak who represents Rohtak in the Parliament. It remains to be seen if the change in leadership could help the Congress in tackling the anti-incumbency in the polls.

As if his defeat to INLD's Dushyant Chautala from the Hisar parliamentary seat was not enough, former CM Bhansi Lal's son and Haryana Janhit Congress (HJP) chief Bishnoi was left red-faced when the BJP flatly refused to concede his demands of 45 seats in the upcoming state elections. According to the agreement between the two parties agreed upon an year back, the HJC and the saffron outfit were to contest half the number of seats each and had agreed to project Kuldeep Bishnoi as the CM candidate of the alliance. With the regional party failing to win either of the two parliamentary seats that it contested in May 2014 and the BJP putting up an impressive show, the saffronists, now bubbling with confidence wanted to re-negotiate terms. As more leaders from various parties joined the BJP, many within the state unit asked the central leadership to take a tougher stance towards Bishnoi and the HJC. With no clear communication over the matter from Amit Shah or the BJP central leadership, Bishnoi broke off the alliance. In fact, he has now joined hands with Venod Sharma's Jan Chetna Party (JCP) and has vowed to teach his former ally a lesson besides defeating the Congress. The JCP chief is the father of Mannu Sharma who was convicted for the killing of Jessica Lal in 1999. Known to be close to Hooda, the Brahmin leader left the Congress earlier this year and launched his new outfit after his attempts of contesting on a NDA ticket for the General Elections was bitterly opposed by senior BJP leaders like Sushma Swaraj.

The once powerful Indian National Lok Dal (INDL) which ruled in Haryana for a full term between 1999 and 2004 has been reduced to a pale shadow of its former glory. The crushing defeat in two consecutive state polls almost broke the morale of the cadre. However, the lethal blow came in early 2013, when a court in New Delhi sentenced Om Prakash Chautala and his son Ajay Chautala to ten years imprisonment for their role in the recruitment scam. With its top leadership tainted, it seemed that the days for the Jat outfit were numbered. As such, it did come as a surprise when the Chautalas went on to win two seats in the recently concluded parliamentary polls. While Om Prakash's grandson Dushyant beat HJC chief Bishnoi, INLD candidate Charanjeet Singh Rori won from Sirsa. Although the regional party seems to be on the rise, it is highly unlikely that it will win more than 10 seats in the state elections. There were reports that outfit was keen on a coalition with the BJP for the upcoming polls and the Akalis too had asked the saffronists to consider this proposal. However, with corruption being an important electoral issue today, any kind of understand with the INLD can potentially backfire.

After a dream debut in the Delhi state polls and a good showing in Punjab in the Lok Sabha elections where it won four seats, the Aam Admi Party (AAP) was expected to emerge as the strongest rival to the ruling Congress's dominance in Haryana. In fact, many believed that senior leader and psephologist Yogendra Yadav would help the Kejriwal led outfit to make significant roads here. However, following the May 16 results, the AAP seems to be in complete disarray. Besides severe infighting, the former Delhi CM's hasty decision of resigning from his chair after being in power for 49 days has certainly led to a perception that Kejriwal & Co can never rise above dharnas and agitations to provide a stable government to the people. Much like the INC, the AAP seems to be fighting the upcoming polls with its back against the wall. On the other end of the political spectrum, former state home minister Gopal Kanda too has floated his own party - the Haryana Lokhit Congress (HLC) after withdrawing his support to the incumbent Hooda government. The prime accused in the murder of air hostess Geetika Sharma, the Sirsa MLA spent several days behind the bars and is presently out on bail. Ironically, the 46 year old has vowed to shake up the entire political establishment in Haryana. Meanwhile, the Bahaujan Samajwadi party (BSP) too has thrown its hat in the ring and has declared former Congress MP Arvind Sharma as its CM candidate.

After winning seven of the eight parliamentary seats that it contested in the state three months ago, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is believed by many to be in the best posiiton to form the next regime in Haryana. For a party that was considered as a minor player in Haryana politics until an year ago, the elevation of Modi and the entry of several high profile candidates from the Congress and the INLD has suddenly transformed the saffron outfit into a major contender for the top spot. So confident is the BJP of doing well that it has literally 'forced' HJC supremo Kuldeep Bishnoi to break ties with it and has also spurned all offers of its former ally, the INLD. However, following the unexpected blow that the NDA suffered in the recently concluded by-polls in Bihar, the party has to be wary. Without a prominent face in the state, the BJP may find it difficult to get the votes. Besides, the joining of several high profile candidates en masse into the saffron camp could lead to factionalism and jeopardize the ticket distribution exercise. All in all, though the BJP is at present the most popular in Haryana, victory in the upcoming state polls is far from guaranteed.


For more posts on the Haryana 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)

MAHASANGRAM - Part III

SENA CHIEF TALKS TOUGH AHEAD OF STATE POLLS

Courtesy: Afternoon

After being edged out by the mega coalition in Bihar and facing shock defeats in Karnataka and MP, see who is preaching the BJP now. It's their own ally and Sena pramukh Uddhav Thackeray. In an editorial in his party's mouthpiece - the Saamna, Uddhav has said that the saffron outfit's defeat in the by-elections needs to be a warning bell for the 'Mahayuti' or the Grand Alliance in Maharashtra. Despite of the coalition decimating the UPA in the big polls earlier this year, he cautioned that victory is in no way guaranteed in November state elections. As if to drive home his point, Thackeray junior has emphasized that the parameters that the voters keep in mind while electing their MLA is drastically different from those the consider before making their choice for the Lok Sabha elections. Taking a dig at his alliance partner, the Shiv Sena chief has said that the state cannot be won just by talking about the 'Modi wave'. Still coming to terms with a rather embarrassing defeat and the controversy regarding Rajnath Singh's family, Uddhav's veiled attacks were the last thing that the BJP would have liked to face. However, with the saffron outfit not very keen to play second fiddle in the assembly elections, the BJP's loss provided a nice opportunity for the Sena to hit back at its oldest partner and show them who is the boss, at least as far as the western state is concerned.

The relations between the saffron allies have been far from cordial in the last few months. So 'confident' had the cadre become after their resounding victory in the Lok Sabha polls that time back, some sections within the BJP had asked the party leadership to break off its ties with Matoshri and join hand with Raj Thackeray led MNS so that they could dictate terms. Though such plans did not materialize, Amit Shah's speech on his official appointment as the new president of the BJP where he said that his party would form the next government in Mumbai has certainly not gone well with the SS. Considering that Shah is extremely close to the PM, there is no doubt that his views on this matter have the endorsement from Modi too. This certainly puts the Sena in a tough position. After all, it has always been the dominant NDA partner as far as Maharashtra is concerned. By hitting out at the BJP, Uddhav is subtly trying to drive home an important point - the Shiv Sena is not Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) and he is certainly not Kuldeep Bishnoi. While the saffron outfit may have not adhered to the coalition dharma with its smaller ally in Haryana, the Sena is not going to allow itself to be 'bullied' by the BJP. With talks regarding seat-sharing arrangements coming up in the next few days, the Sena's aggressive stance is seen by many as a clear message to its saffron partner that it will lead the 'Mahayuti' in the state polls this November.

Though it did extremely well in the General polls, the real test for the tiger will be in the upcoming state elections. The regional player which has been put of power in the state for 15 years has been weakened following the split in its ranks after Raj Thackeray launched the MNS and the death of its founder and one of the most popular yet controversial politicians in the country - Balasaheb Thackeray in 2012. Ever since Uddhav was placed on the gaddi in 2013, there were rumors of discontent against his style of leadership which was termed as 'incompetent' and 'uninspiring'. Even before the May elections, a host of big leaders switched over to the UPA, claiming that the new party chief was not in touch with the Sainiks on the ground, an art that his father had mastered. Aware that the state elections are a 'Do or Die' battle for the political survival of both him and his outfit, Uddhav has broken off all traditions and has made it clear that he was ready to become the Chief Minister of Maharashtra if the SS-BJP alliance comes to power. While his father had the charisma to hold the Sena together from his base in Matoshri, the SS chief realizes that only power could give him the authority to prevent any further revolts within his outfit. With so much on the line, there is no way that he is going to be cowed down by the BJP in his own backyard. As the various partners within the 'Mahayuti' sit together to finalize the seat-sharing terms, Uddhav Tahackeray has, without mincing any words told the BJP to control is 'ambitions' and not to take the Shiv Sena lightly.

For more posts in this series: Mahasangram (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Afternoon 
Original: Maha Yuti seals seat-sharing pact (Link)

MAIDAN-e-JUNG - Part II

JAMMU, KASMIR & LADAKH: THE BATTLE FOR THE REGIONS

Earlier this week, Congress leader and former health minister in the Omar Abdullah cabinet Sham Lal Sharma kicked up a storm when he said that the next CM of the northern state should be a Hindu. Speaking at a function to mark the birthday of former PM Rajiv Gandhi, the Akhnoor MLA was clearly trying to play the 'communal' card in the Jammu region which the BJP had swept in the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls. I wonder where the likes of Digvijay Singh and Mani Shankar Aiyer are when someone within the Congress ranks makes such 'shameful' statements. Anyway, the rise of the saffron outfit in Jammu Kashmir has completely changed the political equations in the northern state. Aware that this is perhaps the best chance that the BJP has to come to power here, newly appointed party president Amit Shah has given a clarion call to the cadre here to work towards the accomplishment of his ambitious "Mission 44+'.

I do not want to sound 'communal' but there is certain amount of truth in what the former cabinet minister has said, that is, if we analyze his comments keeping in mind, the various regions in the state and the aspirations of the people there. A look back into history suggests that ever since the former princely state joined the Indian Union, all its Chief Ministers have been from the Valley. Accounting for 53% of the total population of the state and considering that Kashmir sending 46 MLAs to the state assembly, the leaders from here have dominated the state politics, besides monopolizing the position of the CM. However, this winter, things might turn out to be different. The three way battle in the Valley and the possibility of the saffron outfit sweeping Jammu could turns Sharma's 'vision' of a Hindu heading the state into reality, albeit the person may not be owing his allegiance either to the Gandhis or the Abdullahs or even the Muftis.

To understand how important the results in the Kashmir region have been in deciding the CM of the state, we need to go back in history. In 2008, Omar Abdullah was sworn in as the CM of the state after the NC joined hands with the Congress to form a coalition government. The two partners had together won 23 of the 46 seats here. Six years earlier, when the Muftis tied up with the INC, they had together won 21 seats, one more than the NC which ended up with a tally of 20. When Farooq Abdullah took over the reins of Jammu Kashmir in 1996, his outfit swept the Valley, winning a whopping 37 seats. Now coming to the polls scheduled later this year, it remains to be seen in the three cornered contest, will any one of the three contenders - the National Conference (NC), the People's Democratic Party (PDP) or the Congress can win a sizable number of seats from here. The Muftis, after winning all three seats from the Valley in the General Elections are hoping to do what the Abdullahs did way back in 1996. If either the NC or the PDP can win 25 to 30 seats here, then it could lay a legitimate claim to the CM's post.

Meanwhile, the results in the Jammu region would be the one that I will certainly keep an eye on. After beating former CM and Congress heavyweight Ghulam Nabi Azad in Udhampur and winning the Jammu seat by a massive margin, the BJP is expected to seen a big rise from its earlier tally of 11 seats. BJP chief Amit Shah certainly had these results in mind when he spoke of his grand plans of a BJP led regime in Srinagar. With 36 seats on the line, the BJP has to perform out of its skin and go past the 30 mark and to be in a position to dictate terms. Irrespective of May results, one needs to keep in mind that the state elections will be a different ball game altogether. The party lacks a leader who can help it do well, something that Modi did earlier this year. Moreover, the saffron outfit will have to see off the challenge posed by the likes of the Congress as well as Bhim Singh's Panther's Party (JKNPP) which have strong presence in certain pockets. The PDP too is said to have made some inroads in this part of the state.

Finally, how can one forget the third region - Ladakh. Though it may not find a place in the name of the state, it is fast emerging as one of the most visited tourist destinations in the country. With a population comprising of Muslims and Buddhists, the people here elect 4 seats to the state legislature. Probably, it is because of this that Ladakh does not have much of a say in most matters that affect Jammu Kashmir. However, that may change in case the PDP and the BJP end up winning equal or close to equal number of seats in the other two regions put together. In that scenario, the 4 seats here may decide who heads the next regime in Srinagar. In the big polls, the BJP won the seat by a margin of just 36 votes. Considering that the margin of victory was very less, it is difficult to say who has the edge in Ladakh in the forthcoming polls.


For more posts on the Jammu Kashmir 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)

MAIDAN-e-JUNG - Part I

THE RACE TO BECOME THE SINGLE LARGEST PARTY

Addressing a crowd of party leaders and workers gathered for a function where he was officially anointed as the party president, Amit Shah spoke of yet another ambitious plan - Mission 44. The man who spear headed the BJP's campaign in Uttar Pradesh and was one of the foremost architects of Narendra Modi's big win in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls now wants his party men to work for the formation of the next government in Jammu Kashmir which will see elections later this year. Considering that the saffron outfit has just 11 seats in the outgoing state assembly, it is easy to write off Shah's project as some kind of 'pep' talk to boost the morale of party cadre. However, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) sweeping the two parliamentary seats in Jammu and narrowly edging out the Congress in Ladakh, there are speculations that the saffronists may end up as the single largest party in the next assembly in spite of the fact that the numbers may not be sufficient to form the government. With the Modi wave still pretty strong, the BJP will also bank upon the development plank, the shortcomings of the Omar government and even the goodwill for former PM Vajpayee amongst the Kashmiris to get the votes.

Although there was a lot of debate centered around Article 320 prior to the big polls with many in the party advocating its removal, it will serve the BJP best if the party avoids talking about it considering the sentiments of the people in the state, especially in Kashmir. Besides, it is hopeful that the consolidation of the Hindus votes may further help it in south and east. While there is high probability that the saffron outfit may finish with the highest number of MLAs, it will be interesting to see how many seats it will get and if it can make its debut in the Valley. If the BJP can go past the 40 mark, it will need support of smaller parties and independents to form the government. However, if the saffron outfit gets about 30 to 35 seats then it will have to contemplate joining hands with the Muftis to come to power. Anything below 25 will most likely mean that the BJP would end up as the main opposition in the J&K assembly.

While Shah and his party may be on the threshold of creating history, Kashmir's first political family - the Abdullahs of the National Conference (NC) are yet to recover from the debacle of the 2014 General Elections. Fighting the polls in association with the Congress, the NC drew a blank as all three of its candidates including heavyweights - Farooq Abdullah and Mehboob Beg had to bite the dust. There were lots of expectations from young Omar Abdullah when he took oath as the 11^th Chief Minister of the northern state way back in 2008. Six years down the line, the allegations of graft and lack of development in J&K have made the incumbent CM and his outfit extremely unpopular. In what was clearly seen as a move to put the blame of the Lok Sabha disaster on its former ally, the NC has pulled out of the UPA. Besides, there are reports that all is not well within the outfit and there is a growing section within the party which feels disillusioned by the Abdullahs. For the time being, it seems that the National Conference is heading towards its biggest electoral defeat in recent times; the party will be lucky if it can even win 10 seats.

Much like its former ally, the Congress too is facing the heat here. Former state CM Ghulam Nabi Azad lost to BJP's candidate Dr. Jitendra Singh by a margin of nearly sixty thousand votes in the Udhampur parliamentary seat. In neighboring Jammu, saffron camp's Jugal Kishore Sharma registered a massive win, beating his rival from the INC by over two and a half lakh votes. The grand old party did put up a tough fight in Ladakh; its candidate Tsering Samphel lost by a margin of just 36 votes. The bottom line was clear. Like in the rest of the country, the INC had lost the confidence of the people in Jammu Kashmir too. The problems have only compounded following the divorce with the NC. Although the party will find it very difficult to even come close to its earlier figure of 17 that it got in the last state polls, its 'secular' credentials make it acceptable to both the main regional players in the country. As such, if either the NC or the PDP need some seats to cross the half way mark, the first option that they will explore is an alliance with the INC.

If there is one party that can actually give a tough fight to the BJP in the race to become the single largest party in the state assembly, it has to be the People's Democratic Party (PDP) led by former CM Mufti Mohammed Sayeed. Like the BJP in the rest of the state, the PDP won all three seats in the Kashmir region, beating the threat posed by the NC-INC combine. Now with the two former allies in the UPA parting ways, the chances of Sayeed's outfit has improved further. At the same time, we must remember that with limited presence in the state, winning a majority on its own will be quite an ask for the PDP in spite of the pathetic condition that its main adversaries in the Valley, namely the NC and the Congress find themselves in. The question though is that if need be, will the Muftis be open to an alliance with the BJP - a party which is still seen by many in the Valley as communal and harmful to the interest of Kashmiris. Allying with the Congress will be much easier, that is of course if the INC can get the required numbers. In that scenario, one needs to see if the Congress will be ready to forget Mufti's betrayal of Azad's government way back in 2008.

For more posts on the Jammu Kashmir 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)

MAHASANGRAM - Part II

NOT-SO-FRIENDLY BANTER: BJP vs SENA & CONG vs NCP

Maharashtra is one state, where till recently the battle lines were clearly drawn between the two major political blocks in the country today. Of course, while making this observation, I have chosen to overlook both the Third Front which was 'humiliated' in the last General Elections as well as Raj Thackeray's MNS which is yet to pack a punch in the political scenario of the state. Anyway, dubbed as the saffron allies, the BJP and the Shiv Sena (SS) have been together since the early 90s. At a time when other political parties very still wary of forging electoral ties with each other and the 'Coalition Era' was in its early days, BJP leader Pramod Mahajan and Sena chief Balasaheb Thackeray stuck a partnership which is still 'unbroken'. Although the two parties managed to win power in 1994 and formed the government in Maharashtra under the leadership of Manohar Joshi, they were voted out of power in 1999 and have been warning the Opposition benches in the state assembly ever since. Meanwhile, the Marathi outfit was also a part of the various NDA regimes at the Centre. On the other end of the political spectrum is the Congress-NCP alliance - a bond that has lasted for 15 years now. Pawar who broke away from the Congress to float the NCP over Sonia Gandhi's foreign origins had no problems whatsoever in allying with his former outfit for multiple terms in Mumbai as well as New Delhi.

If you think that after years of being together, the two allies may be geared up to put up a 'united' front ahead of the 2014 state polls, then you are wrong. Days before the electoral campaign begins, reports of rift between the coalition partners has 'spiced' up the battle for Maharashtra. Allegation of big-brotherly treatment, differences over seat sharing arrangements and 'irresponsible' statements by leaders has put serious question marks over the future of the major alliances in the state. In this post, I will analyze the two combinations, the issues that have caused fiction between them, the options in front of them and what will happen if the allies decide to go their separate ways.

The End of the road for the Saffron Brigade?

Nearly three months ago, the BJP-Sena and its other smaller coalition partners in the 'Mahayuti' swept the state winning as many as 42 of the 48 parliamentary seats. However, the relations between the two saffron partners has been far from cordial ever since. In spite of being the second largest constituent of the NDA, the Marathi outfit was given just one ministerial berth in the Central government. Though the Sena tried hard to bargain for more representation in the Modi regime, the PM and his party refused to budge, perhaps buoyed by the fact that they enjoy a comfortable majority in the Lower House. The SS too on its part has angered its partner by unilaterally declaring its supremo Uddhav Thackeray as the chief ministerial candidate of the saffron camp, a move that has not gone too well with the BJP. In what is seen as a clear signal to the cadre to 'think beyond the Sena', Amit Shah in his maiden speech as the new party president, has announced that the BJP would form the next government in Maharashtra, a clear indication to Matoshri that the national party would no more play second fiddle to the SS in the Vidhan Sabha polls. Since the 90s, the Shiv Sena fields candidates on nearly 170 seats while leaving the rest - approximately 120 to the BJP.

After decimating the Congress across the country in the big polls and reducing several regional players to 'irrelevance', the BJP has set its goals of expanding in hitherto 'unknown lands', including parts of rural Maharashtra. One of the reasons to appoint Amit Shah as the successor to Rajnath Singh is to expand the saffron outfit beyond its traditional base in the Hindi heartland. After registering such a big win, the party is confident that it will do exceedingly well even in the state polls, irrespective of whether it joins hand with any of the two Senas. A second reason why the BJP wants to renegotiate the seat sharing agreement with the Sena is that it has to accommodate four other smaller players who have joined hands with it, namely the Republican Party of India - Athavle (RPI-A), the Swabhiman Shetkari Sanghatana (SSS), the Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSP) and the Shiv Sangram. Finally, another cause of worry for the BJP is the with the Sena fielding more candidates, the chances of the next CM being from the former is even less than that of the Indian cricket team winning a test series away from the Sub-continent. The SS on its part, has tried to 'emotionally blackmail' the national party, reminding it that the Thakerays had stood with it during times, thick and thin. With Sena parmukh declaring his intentions of contesting elections, there is no way that the SS is going to accept anybody else as the next CM of the state in case the saffron camp does win the polls. Moreover, with question marks being raised about his style of leadership and following the death of its charismatic leader Balasaheb Thakeray, the SS and Uddhav have a point to prove and silence its numerous critics, once and for all.

With tempers flying high, the saffron alliance is perhaps at its weakest in its life span of two decades. While both partners may think that they will do well even if they go alone, especially with the strong anti-incumbency against the INC-NCP government the simple truth is that they will not perform well in case they break-up. Though Narendra Modi helped the BJP do well in Maharashtra, the untimely deaths of Pramod Mahajan and Gopinath Munde has robbed the party of a credible face in the state. Also, the thought of allying with Raj Thackeray seems to be far fledged considering the performance of the MNS in the Lok Sabha elections. Similarly, the SS too does not have much of presence in several parts of the Maharashtra and hence cannot even dream of forming a regime on its own. Most importantly, the split in the partnership will end up dividing the anti-establishment votes, thereby helping the INC and the NCP. If the partners can bury their differences and fight the polls together, they are going to storm Maharashtra and form the next government. There is no doubt that the seat sharing arrangements between the two parties have to be revisited and newer allies need to be accommodated. However, if the two parties head towards 'splitsville', the two outfits might be forced to occupy the Opposition benches for a fourth consecutive term.

Are the Congress and the NCP headed for a bitter divorce?

Though they may have shared power for 15 long years in the state, the relations between the INC and Pawar's outfit have never been 'smooth'. However, the point to note is that since the beginning of the year, the tensions between them have only escalated, serious threatening their performance even if they manage to somehow hold on to their partnership. Before the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, senior leaders of the NCP including Shrad Pawar and Praful Patel had predicted that the NDA would bag more seats than the UPA. While this did come true, the paltry performance of the Congress-led coalition in the state of Maharashtra where it was reduced to six seats was certainly not expected. Accusing the incumbent CM Prithviraj Chauhan of failing in his duties, the NCP raised the bogey of revolt, asking the INC to sack him. At the same time, several NCP leaders suggested that they should contest more seats than the Congress in the state assembly elections considering that they had won more parliamentary seats than the national party three months ago. Chauhan, a Gandhi loyalist survived. After getting the blessings of the party High Command, he decided to up the ante against the NCP. At a party rally, he declared that his party was ready to go it all alone for the polls.

From the NCP's point of view, the party believes that the perception that it has been a steady fast ally of the 'corrupt' Congress has been solely responsible for its failure in the recent elections. As such, if the Congress-NCP alliance could project a new face in the assembly polls, there are chances that the anti-incumbency wave could be countered, at least to some extent. There is also a certain section that feels that dumping the Congress and fighting the polls alone could actually help 'cut electoral loses'. In that case, the party could tie-up with either the BJP or the Sena if the saffron alliance breaks up. The 2014 state elections are extremely crucial to the NCP and you can expect the leadership to bargain hard with the Congress. The INC knows that after the drubbing that it got, coming back to power for a straight fourth term is close to 'impossible'. However, with the Opposition lacking a credible face in the state, the INC feels that it has a better chance to do well in the local polls. Secondly, Congress leaders feel that the NCP cannot put the blame of the defeat squarely on the Congress and get away with it, especially after several alleged cases of corruption against Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar.

I think, the two parties have no option but to stick together. Even in that case, they are heading for a rout in the state polls. Probably, the only chance that the allies have of forming the next government if if there is a split in the saffron alliance. Even in that scenario, getting the required numbers will be a herculean task. With 44 seats in the Lok Sabha, the Congress is still licking the wounds of its defeat. With the National Conference walking out of the UPA and several regional players cosying up to the Modi regime, the grand old party needs to keep the UPA united. As such, it cannot afford to anger its oldest existing ally. At the same time, the NCP is no position to fight the polls alone. Like the Congress, the party is battling corruption charges with its senior leader Ajit Pawar accused of being a part of the multi-crore Irrigation Scam. Moreover, the two parties are also facing internal rebellion. Revenue Minister and Malvan strongman Narayan Rane has raised the banner of revolt against Chauhan whereas NCP leader Chaggan Bhujbal is known to be contemplating a switch over to the saffron camp. Lastly, a divorce here will also split the minority votes, thereby benefiting the BJP-SS alliance further. Also, the NCP's 'grand idea' of tying up with either the BJP or the Sena to form the next regime is highly unlikely to materialize, primarily because it will find it difficult even to go past 40 seat mark.

For more posts in this series: Mahasangram (Link)

MAHASANGRAM - Part I

WHAT'S ON THE LINE FOR THE MAJOR REGIONAL PARTIES

The beauty of politics in a vast country like ours is that every few months, some or the other state goes to the polls. It has been less than two months since the results of the 2014 General Elections were announced and the battle for the states of Maharashtra, Haryana and Jammu Kashmir scheduled later in the year has already begun. The BJP which recorded its best ever figures is keen to carry forward the momentum; aware that the it just cannot afford to drop its guard, considering its dependence on regional satraps like Jaya, Mamta and Navin to pass key legislation in the Rajya Sabha. With the Modi government yet to do anything significant on its promise of 'acche din', victory in the states is far from guaranteed. On the other hand, the Congress which failed to even cross the 50 mark in the General Elections is hoping to thwart the NaMo bandwagon by giving a tough fight to the NDA. The grand old party is expected to give its best shot after questions were raised about its future, especially under the leadership of the Gandhis. With the Third Front being wiped off in the parliamentary elections and its constituents not having any major presence in any of these states, it is rather easy to write it off at least as far as the upcoming polls are concerned.

The failure of the federal front and the magnitude of BJP's victory has raised several questions over the future of regional satraps in the country. I know many will point out that even the Congress - the largest party in the country too was virtually wiped out even in its traditional strongholds and hence the superb numbers got by the saffron outfit could be passed off as a 'fluke'. However, when was the last time you saw Mayawati's BSP failing to even open its account or Mulayum struggling to win seats outside of his family dominions. Moreover, in the era of coalition politics, the saffron outfit's tally of 282 is unprecedented; no party has been able to enjoy such a comfortable majority on the floor of the house since 1984. Against this backdrop and with the elections to the Maharashtra state assembly just around the corner, I want to analyze the poll prospects of the three major regional parties in the state. With most of the smaller parties failing to do well in the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls, it will be interesting to see if the NCP and the two Senas can deliver a power packed performance this winter.

Will the Tiger make a Kill? To understand how the fortunes of a political outfit can change over a span of few months, one needs to trace the graph of one of the country's oldest regional party - the Shiv Sena (SS). After

Shiv Sena supremo Uddhav Thackeray

the death of the firebrand Marathi leader, the controversial yet charismatic Bal Thackeray, many felt that the SS would die a slow death. In fact, many political observers had virtually written the obituary of the Sena - three consecutive defeats in the state assembly polls, the split in the ranks after Raj Thackeray walked out of the organization and the 'inability' of present chief and Thackeray Senior's son Uddhav to rally the cadre behind him were cited as the prime reasons. Even before the big polls, as many as four incumbent MPs deserted the party to join the UPA after accusing Uddhav of being 'inaccessible'. Probably, the biggest blow came when party's spokesperson Rahul Narvekar who is known to be close to the Sena's first family left the SS to join the NCP. At the same time, with Raj Thackeray taking on a more aggressive stance on the 'Sons of the soil' movement, many believed that he was the right person to take the Thackeray legacy forward. Moreover, in the run up to the General Elections, the relations between the Sena and the BJP were far from cordial, especially with the BJP sending overtures to the MNS. However, the May 16 results might have brought lot of relief to Uddhav. Even as the NDA swept to power, the Sena won a staggering 18 of the 20 seats it contested in the state.

Buoyed by the success of the big polls, the Shiva Sena and its Pramukh are sensing victory ahead of the state polls too. However, the big worrying factor will be the relations with its saffron ally - the BJP. After crossing the 272 mark on its own, the saffron outfit now wants to dictate terms in the seat sharing arrangement in Maharashtra. According to some reports, the BJP want the two allies to re-negotiate the terms of alliance under which the national party contests 117 seats while leaving the remaining 170 odd to the Sena in the state assembly elections. This agreement brokered by Bal Thackeray and Pramod Mahajan effectively rules out the possibility of a Chief Minister from the BJP. In fact, in spite of being the second largest constituent of the NDA, Modi inducted just one MP from the SS in his cabinet. While the Sainiks were said to be sulking, Modi refused to budge. After all, the SS had initially suggested the candidature of Sushma Swaraj for the post of NDA's PM nominee. While he may have survived the scare ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, it remains to be seen if Uddhav can somehow manage to save the two decade old alliance with the BJP. Meanwhile, the SS chief has already made public his ambitions to become the CM of the state. Another cause of concern would be to see off the threat posed by his rival and cousin - Raj Thackeray. Although the MNS failed to cause any split in the anti-UPA votes like it did in 2009, there is little doubt that the it would pose a big threat to the prospects of the SS in the state elections. The 2014 Maharashtra assembly polls is a big test for the Sena and its supremo; a victory signal the rise of a new regional satrap on the Indian political scenario and would justify Bal Thackeray's decision of choosing his real son over his nephew. A defeat though would be catastrophic and one should not be surprised if it would be a blow from which the Sena never emerges again.

Is the clock ticking for NCP? While NDA's victory may have just heralded the beginning of 'acche din' for the Shiv Sena, the other big regional player - the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) seems to be heading

NCP chief Sharad Pawar

towards its worst showing in the state. 2014 has been a forgetful year for former Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar's outfit. Having been in power in alliance with the Congress for 15 years in Mumbai and for a decade at the Centre as a leading constituent of the UPA, the party seems to be in dire straits (Link). In the May 2014 polls, Pawar's party managed to win just 4 seats even as the BJP-Sena alliance walked away with a grand tally of 42 seats. In fact, the outfit failed to do well in other states too and in the process, ended up losing its tag as a 'national' party. The biggest reason for this rout was the fact that most of the party's top leadership has been caught in some controversy or scandal. As the Agriculture Minister, supremo Sharad Pawar was a complete failure; in fact, he was seen doing more work as the Chairman of the ICC than taking steps to curb price rise. His daughter Supriya Sule who was one of the four NCP candidates to make the cut to the Lok Sabha in 2014 has been accused of owning stakes in IPL teams some years ago. And how can one forget the one and only Ajit Pawar. Known in party circles as Ajit Dada, the nephew of the Pawar senior is a loud mouth. Apart from being one of the prime accused in the multi-crore Irrigation Scam, the Deputy CM is known to speak 'rubbish' at political rallies. Meanwhile, even the relations between the Congress and the NCP were far from cordial in the run up to the polls. Perhaps sensing that the odds were stacked against his outfit, Sharad Pawar decided to chicken out and instead became a Rajya Sabha MP. Moreover, the Maratha strongman and his colleague Praful Patel had on numerous occasions predicted that the NDA would do better than the UPA causing severe embarrassment to the Congress.

Now coming to the state elections, the problems for NCP still persist. The relations with the Congress have only soured further; the party's bid to have the incumbent CM Prithviraj Chauhan replaced was foiled after the Congress President refused to budge. Buoyed by the confidence that Sonia Gandhi has shown in him, Chauhan has made it clear that the Congress is ready to go alone in the state polls. At the same time, Pawar's outfit too has gone on the offensive, asking the INC to allocate it more seats since it out did the national party in the big elections. With the tensions between the two parties escalating by the day, seat sharing is going to be extremely difficult. Apart from the coalition troubles, the NCP, like the Congress is fighting anti-incumbency spanning over 15 years. With the INC-NCP government not having a spectacular report card to boast of, winning a straight forth term is next to impossible. At the same time, the NCP does not have any strong leaders to get the votes. The party chief is aging and if the May 2014 polls are anything to go by, he seems to have lost a lot of ground even in his traditional stronghold of Western Maharashtra. Ajit Pawar and R R Patil too have seen a decline in their popularity. Former Home Minister Chaggan Bhujbal was reported to be keen to rejoin the Shiv Sena till his request was publicly turned down by Uddhav Thackeray. The state polls are a big test for the NCP; although there is no doubt that they are going to drop seats, the party leadership will hope to cut down its loses. One possibility that the NCP will be looking at is a possible break-up between the BJP-SS alliance after the polls. In that scenario, both the saffron parties may contemplate joining hands with Pawar to form the next government in Maharashtra.

Make or Break Moment for Raj: Coming to the third regional player in the state, the state assembly polls could be the big test for Raj Thackeray and his Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). Formed in early 2006

MNS leader Raj Thackeray

after the dynamic Raj walked out of the Shiv Sena over differences with his cousin Uddhav, the MNS is yet to make a big mark in state politics. Of course, it did exceedingly well in 2009 when it cut into the NDA votes helping the UPA do well, first in the General Elections and then in the state polls. The party had a good debut winning as many as 13 seats in the Maharashtra assembly. However, ever since that spark, the MNS has failed to 'sparkle'. During the campaign for the 2014 polls, the BJP tried to bring the two Senas together as part of the 'Mahayuti' to fight the UPA. However, the plan failed with the Sena accusing the BJP of going against the coalition dharma. When Raj declared his support to the candidature of Narendra Modi as the PM of India, BJP President Rajnath Singh turned down the offer, making it clear that the alliance with Shiv Sena was strong. Anyway, many were expecting that the MNS would still go on to win at least one seat and dash the hopes of the BJP-SS combine on several seats. In fact, the hopes of the UPA of doing well in the western state were completely based on the MNS factor. After all, both the Senas have their ideologies based in the 'Sons of the Soil' movement. However, all that proved to be a dud with Raj's outfit scoring a duck.

With the state polls just a few months away, the MNS still has a lot of ground to cover. Of course, while the results of the 2014 elections may be something that Raj and his followers would like to put behind them, the fact remains that the MNS has a strong presence in several pockets in the state. However, the challenge would be to convert that support into seats. A big fillip for the MNS would be if Raj Thackeray would contest the polls. In absence of other famous leaders, Raj's entry into electoral fray would instill a lot of confidence in the party cadre. Going beyond the 20 mark will be difficult. However, getting less than that would certainly raise questions over Raj's leadership, especially if the Shiv Sena chief Uddhav becomes the CM of Maharashtra. The chances of MNS being the part of the next government are extremely remote; the only possible case would be if the BJP ties up with the MNS and the NCP in the post poll scenario. And to be frank, that is highly unlikely .

For more posts in this series: Mahasangram (Link)