FLOP SHOW

ANALYZING INC's DEFEAT IN 2014 LOK SABHA POLLS

Courtesy: NDTV

Earlier this week, the much awaited Anthony Committee submitted its report detailing the causes that led to the Congress' disastrous defeat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. With many leaders in the party questioning Rahul Gandhi and his style of leadership, it was expected that the commission would suggest certain 'tough' decisions to revive the 128 year old party. However, while speaking to the media after submitting his report, the former Defence Minister exonerated Baba of all charges; in fact, the former MP went on to praise the two Gandhis for doing their best during the election campaign. The fears that most of us had was confirmed; instead of finding the multiple issues that plague the grand old party and addressing them, the Gandhis had flatly refused to accept their share of the blame. In a similar move, the mother and son duo had earlier, in the aftermath of the May 16 results, offered mere 'lip service' by offering to resign in the CWC meet, a move that was immediately 'rejected' by their chamchas. It is easy to understand why the former Kerala CM has given a clean chit to the first family. Anthony has always been a loyalist and though he might be in the last leg of his political career, he has no reason to infuriate his bosses. Although he may have his own set of reason for not 'unearthing' the truth, we do not have any such compulsions or obligations towards the dynasty. The following are the reasons that I believe led to the Congress recording its worst showing in the polls held earlier this year.

Leadership Crisis: The prime reason for the debacle of the Congress party in the recently concluded polls was the 'uninspiring and insipid' leadership of Rahul Gandhi. Appointed as the party's vice president at a function in the Talkatora stadium in New Delhi, the Gandhi scion began on a rather impressive note as he unveiled his plans for a grand vamp up of the century old INC. Unfortunately for Rahul and his outfit, this was the only bright spot in a rather lackluster report card so far. Much like his below par performances in the Bihar and Uttar Pradesh state elections, the 'strategy-consultant' managed or should we say 'mis-managed' the campaign that saw the INC register its worst performance in its electoral history. His pet projects including holding primaries to select nominees for parliamentary seats, a move hailed by some as 'far-sighted', proved to complete failures with all candidates selected via this process failing to make the cut. The so-called youth icon's interview to Times Now Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami which exposed his complete disconnect from the issues that matter most to the masses made him the laughing stalk of the nation. Even during the campaign, many senior leaders in the party had complained that the VP was being 'misguided' by a coterie of leaders who are out-of-touch with ground reality. All throughout the campaign, Baba failed to strike a chord with the audiences, an art that his mother has mastered. With Narendra Modi projecting himself as a strong alternative to the passiveness displayed by the UPA, Rahul stood no chance. Forget convincing the rest of the country to vote for the Congress, the Amethi MP's victory margin in his own constiuency was reduced to just over a lakh votes.

Lack of strong regional leaders: Another factor that contributed to the party's embarrassing tally was the fact that it did not have strong state leaders who could get the votes. While the BJP swept most of the states where it was in power, the INC failed to open its mark in as many as 14 states including some big ones like Gujarat, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. In all these states, the saffron outfit had leaders who were empowered to take decisions on their own. On the contrary, lack of powerful state chiefs has been the problem with the Congress ever since the Indira era. The outfit has never promoted strong CMs since the Gandhi family looks upon them as rivals to their power. After the resignation of Ashok Chavan as the CM of Maharashtra following the Adarsh expose, the high command sent its trusted aide Prithviraj Chavan from New Delhi instead of choosing someone like Narayan Rane who had spent much of his career in the state. On similar lines, in spite of leading the INC to a close victory in the 2012 state polls (Link), the party preferred former MP Vijay Bahuguna and then Harish Rawat over the likes of Harak Singh Rawat and Yashpal Arya. And while mentioning this point, how can one forget the treatment meted out to YSRCP chief Jaganmohan Reddy. After the untimely death of former Andhra strongman Y S Rajashekar Reddy, the Gandhis refused to give the CM's post to his son Jaganmohan, fearing that he might become 'bigger' than the party and its top leadership in the southern state. As Reddy junior left the party and launched a new outfit - the YSR Congress Party, he was hounded by the CBI and jailed for 18 months. Without any mass leader and following the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh, the INC was routed as the TDP-BJP combine and the YSRCP shared the spoils.

Corruption: If there was one issue that dominated the election campaign it was corruption. Anna Hazare's indefinite strike at Jantar Mantar in August 2011, the formation of the Kejriwal led Aam Admi Party (AAP) and its victory in the Delhi state assembly gave hope to over a billion Indians that our nation could finally be cured of the cancer that had engulfed it for over six decades. Unfortunately for the Congress, the plethora of scams that rocked the UPA in the latter half of its second term put it on the back foot. The scam in the allocation of Coal blocks at a time when Manmohan Singh was in charge of this ministry tainted the 'clean' image of PM. The 2G allocation scam dubbed by many as the biggest scam in the history of India saw the arrest of former Telecom Minister A Raja as well as DMK chief Karunanidhi's daughter Kanimozhi, further embarrassing the government. The Choppergate scam, the CWG scam, the allegations of graft in the Antrix deal and Railgate, hit the credibility of the UPA regime as well as the INC. At a time when all the parties were hitting at the Congress over its failure to tackle this menace, the party did not make the fight against corruption as one of the main focus points of its campaign. Obviously, after facing so many allegations of graft, there was no way anyone would take the party's resolve to get the country rid of this menace seriously. Probably, after the elevation of Modi as the BJP's PM candidate, the INC thought that 'Secularism' and its co-called 'Idea of India' would help it brush aside all charges of corruption and help it win a consecutive third term. This proved to be a miscalculation as the results suggest.

Wrong Allies: Another factor that led to the INC do badly in the polls was the fact that it did not have the right partners on its side. Mamata Bannerjee walked out of the UPA over the issue of price rise. Had the Congress leadership been able to placate her, the two parties would have easily bagged nearly 35-40 seats in Bengal. Months before the elections, its southern ally - the DMK walked out of the UPA over the government's soft stand towards Sri Lanka. While the BJP was joining hands with many outfits all across the country, the INC was left with just four major partners - the NCP, the National Conference in Kashmir, the RLD in Western UP and the RJD in Bihar. Much like the INC, even its allies were facing the heat ahead of the General elections. Moreover, in spite of the bifurcation of Andhra, KCR refused to merge his outfit into the INC. In three key southern states - Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Andhra, the Congress was entering the battlefield without any strong partner on its side. There were reports that the party leadership was in talks with 'like-minded' parties like the Jaganmohan Reddy's YSRCP, Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF, Nitish Kumar's JD-U and Mayawati's BSP to forge pre-poll alliances. However, unfortunately for the Congress, none of these materialized. While the INC got 44 seats, its allies fared even worse - the NC and the RLD failed to open their accounts, Pawar's NCP was reduced to six seats whereas Lalu's comeback was all hype and no substance. Actually, the other allies of the BJP in the NDA put together got more seats than the INC in 2014.

Communication: The troika of the Gandhis and Manmohan Singh that had taken the UPA to a victory in 2009 failed to communicate with the people in the last five years. Former PM Singh was never known to be an effective orator. However, he had managed to send a strong signal to the electorate by taking the onus of passing the Indo-US Nuclear deal on himself. In the second term though, he repeatedly came under attacks of the the media for failing to take on corruption head on. He hardly addressed any press conference and failed to convey his views to the masses. Equally to blame is vice president Rahul Gandhi. The younger scion of the party's first family who is known to be a reluctant politician has to take his share of blame too. When the entire country was discussing issues like price rise, corruption and women's empowerment, Baba never felt the need to speak to the media. Of course, he did tear the cabinet resolution giving relief to convicted parliamentarians at a pres conference early this year but this was a clear case of too little too late. This apart from the fact that his actions had undermined the stature of the PM. To add to the INC's woes, its biggest vote catcher - party president Sonia Gandhi's ill health prevented her from campaigning actively. On the contrary, the BJP's electoral strategy was more focused. Narendra Modi used his twitter handle to connect with the people and address his views on issues, both big and small. Obviously, while the BJP created history by going past the 272 mark, the INC could not even finish with one sixth of that tally.

IMAGES 

(1) Courtesy: NDTV
Original: Sonia and Rahul Gandhi may offer resignations after Congress rout: Sources (Link)

CROSSING THE HURDLES

THE FIVE BIG CHALLENGES THAT THE BJP OVERCAME TO WIN 2014

Original: IBN Live/Reuters

It has been about a month since the BJP created history by becoming the first political party in nearly three decades to win a simple majority on its own. Of course, we all were expecting the saffron outfit to do well and finish as the single largest party in the 16 ^th Lok Sabha. Even some of the leaders in the UPA including NCP supremo Sharad Pawar had said this. However, except perhaps for the team at Today's Chanakya, I don't think that any of us had thought that the results of the General Elections would be so one sided in the favor of the BJP. While the numbers may suggest that it was a cake walk for Modi & Co., those of us who followed the entire campaign will know that it was anything but that. Here are the five big hurdles that the saffronists faced and overcame in its successful quest for power after warming the Opposition benches for ten years.

(5) Controversial Entries: With the UPA battling anti-incumbency and the NaMo fever sweeping the country, leaders from many political parties and organizations flocked to the saffron camp, hoping to finish on the winning side. The BJP courted a massive controversy when Pramod Muthalik, the head of the notorious Sri Rama Sena - a right wing group, infamous for attacking women in the port city of Mangalore for going to pubs. The move did not go well as the party came under attack from the media as well as women's right groups. Even Goa CM Manohar Parrikar made his displeasure clear to the central leadership, aware that the Hindutva leader's entry could hamper the party's support amongst the Christians in Goa. As PM nominee Narendra Modi intervened, the right wing leader was shown the door, barely 5 hours after joining the BJP. A teary eyed Muthalik swore revenge and contested the elections against BJP state president Prahlad Joshi who eventually emerged as the winner with a margin of over 1 lakh votes. Similarly, the induction of former JD(U) Rajya Sabha MP Sabir Ali raised a storm with minority leader Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi slamming his party for welcoming 'terrorist Bhatkal's friend'. While he was shunted out, Ali filed a defamation case against Naqvi. However, the two made up and according to reports, the party has decided to support Ali's candidature to the Upper House of the Parliament from Bihar as an independent candidate. And lastly, how can we forget the home-coming of former Karnataka CM B S Yeddyurappa and his colleague Sriramalu into the BJP. Although both had cases of corruption against them, the BJP welcomed them with open arms in spite of repeated attacks from the Congress. The move proved to be a political master stroke; the BJP won 17 seats in the southern state just a year after being routed in the 2013 state polls (Link).

(4) Coalition troubles: Many will remember the manner in which the JD(U) walked out of the NDA, following the announcement of Narendra Modi as the PM nominee of the BJP-led coalition. We shall discus that sometime later. Meanwhile, this was not the only problem the saffron outfit had, at least in regards to its coalition partners prior to the polls. To prevent the split in the anti-UPA votes, the BJP tried to do, what many believe is next to impossible - get the Shiv Sena (SS) and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) together as a part of the 'Mahayuti' (Link). As Nitin Gadkari opened channels of negotiations with Raj, his cousin Uddhav was furious, accusing the national party of violating the coalition dharma. Finally, the BJP relented; president Rajnath Singh making it clear that the party had nothing to do with MNS. A few days before the state went to the polls, there was turbulence in Andhra too. Having joined the NDA after ten long years, the TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu was furious at his coalition partner for fielding 'weak' candidates in the assembly polls held simultaneously with the 2014 General Elections. The BJP sent its spokesperson Prakash Javdekar who succeeded in placating the former AP CM. Even Punjab CM and Akali chief Prakash Singh Badal gave the BJP some headache when he introduced Arun Jaitley as the future Home or Finance Minister in an election rally in Amritsar. This was not taken lightly by some in the saffron camp. But as they say, 'alls well that ends well'. The BJP-SS combine swept Maharashtra whereas the BJP-TDP alliance pipped the YSRCP in the southern state. And, Badal's prophecy did come true.

(3) The war of succession: I remember an article in a reputed magazine in 2005 about the war of succession amongst the second generation leaders in the BJP. It had been an year since the NDA suffered a shock defeat and the Atal-Advani era was coming to an end. Questions were being raised as to who would lead the saffron camp in the absence of these stalwarts. The names doing the rounds back then included the late Pramod Mahajan, Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Rajnath Singh and Uma Bharati. Many believed that the party would implode, much like the Janata Party did in the eighties. With the BJP failing to come to power in 2009, the situation deteriorated further. Now, I believe in may ways, it is ironical that it was Modi who took the party to its best ever performance. Ironical, because in my opinion, the stigma of the Godhra riots was one of the biggest reasons that the Vajpayee government was voted out a decade ago. The former Gujarat CM was first appointed as the head of the BJP's election campaign. A few weeks later, the party made the big decision at a convention in Goa. In spite of opposition from all corners, including some senior leaders and pressure from the JD(U), Rajnath Singh went ahead and declared Modi as the NDA's official PM candidate (Link). He did not have any choice. The cadre wanted Modi, the RSS wanted Modi and as the results have shown, the entire nation wanted Modi to undo all the harm that the two terms of UPA had done to the country.

(2) Sulking Seniors: Probably, the biggest critic of the party and its new leadership was Bhishma Pitama - Lal Krishna Advani. The former Home Minister who was the saffron outfit's PM nominee in 2009. As the party anointed Modi as its PM candidate, the veteran leader decided to stay away from the function, giving the media and the Congress much needed ammunition to target the BJP. In the run up to the 2014 polls, there were reports that the convener of the NDA wanted to shift his constituency from Gandhinagar to Bhopal, preferring to work with Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Chauhan than under Narendra Modi. After hectic negotiations, Advani was somehow convinced to contest from his constituency in Gujarat. However, his confidante Haren Patak was dropped in favor of Modi's close aide film actor Paresh Rawal - a clear signal that the time had come for the old guard to exit, 'gracefully'. Another senior leader who was not in favor of Modi assuming the charge was former president Murali Manohar Joshi. Joshi who represented Varansi in 2009 was upset on being asked to shift his seat to Kanpur in favor of Modi. Another veteran Sushma Swaraj was reported not very happy with the rise of Modi. In fact, she had hit out at the party and its policies via twitter. After that unprecedented victory though and that splendid mandate, these things seem to be a thing of the past. Sushma has been given the charge of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Joshi is a front runner to the post of the Defence Minister. Advani, meanwhile, is still sulking!

(1) The ghost of the 2002 riots: Having come to power after riding high on the Hindutva sentiments following the demolition of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya, the BJP is considered by its opponents and the so-called 'intellectuals' to be a 'communal' party. With Modi at the helm of affairs, the problem compounded further. In fact, the elevation of the former Gujarat CM within the saffron ranks made 'Secularism' one of the most important issue ahead of the 2014 General Elections. To be frank, this was the ploy used by the likes of the Congress and its allies to divert the attention of the public away from the numerous failures of the UPA regime. In fact, many believed that the candidature of Modi whose role in the 2002 Godhra riots is still under the scanner would lead to consolidation of minority votes in favor of the Congress and thus hamper the BJP's prospects. Besides, a large number of 'intellectuals' and 'scholars' came out in the open and criticized the saffron camp for promoting the then Gujarat CM and endangering the so-called 'idea of India'. Probably the biggest blow came when the JD(U), the second largest party in the NDA walked out of the 17 year long alliance. Also, many were of the opinion that the anti-minority image of the BJP would keep many prospective allies at bay. However, both Narendra Modi and the BJP did work hard for an image makeover. Modi made 'development for all' his plank during the campaign. At the same time, while the PM nominee was on a whirlwind tour across the nation, president Rajnath Singh worked overtime to stitch together a formidable alliance to fight take on a weak UPA. The return of LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan to the NDA sent out a strong signal because the former Railway Minister was the first to exit the Vajpayee government after the 2002 riots. It was a clear indication that the Godhra was a thing of the past; an indication that politicians across the political spectrum were ready to do business with Modi. A clear and resounding mandate to Modi's BJP and the decimation of the Congress, the JD(U), the RJD and others has shown that the people of the world's largest democracy have moved on since 2002.

IMAGES

(1) Original: IBN Live/Reuters

AND THE LOSING CAPTAIN IS...

VETERAN KHARGE MADE THE LEADER OF THE CONGRESS

Courtesy: Post Jagran

Apart from the Modi wave that swept the country taking the saffron outfit beyond the halfway mark, the 2014 General Elections will also be remembered for decimation of India's grand old party. Never in its 126 year long history had the Congress party recorded such a dismal performance in the Lok Sabha polls. While we can write a 1000 page book on why the INC failed to even win one tenth of the total seats in the Lower House of the Parliament - a pre-requisite to be termed as the 'principal opposition', a large part of the blame should fall on the (not-so)young and (un)able shoulders of the Vice President Rahul Gandhi. After all, was he not the one who led the party in a campaign which saw it record its worst ever showing and basically handed the victory to the BJP and Narendra Modi on a platter? While the junior Gandhi and his mummy Sonia did offer to resign at the recently held party convention, it was, as Times Now Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami put it, mere 'lip-service'. As the focus shifted from the election debacle to devising a strategy to resurrect the party ahead of the state polls scheduled later this year, many top guns including Digvijay Singh and Shashi Tharoor believed that it would be 'logical' for Rahul to head the 44 elected members of the Congress in the Lok Sabha. I mean, to be frank, I am pretty sure many of us would feel the same. However, it seems that the INC chief had other plans. In what is seen by some as an attempt by the party chief to shield her son from the attacks of a 'much stronger and a confident BJP' or as others feel, another occasion where Baba has refused to take 'responsibility', veteran Karnataka leader and former Railway Minister Mallikarjun Kharge has been appointed as the leader of the Congress party in the Lower House.

From the Congress' point of view, there are 'reasons' behind the move. The official party line has been that the top priority for the MP from Amethi now is to resurrect the party. The rout in the elections has been rude shock and has completely exposed the organizational mess that the party finds itself in as of today. While anti-incumbency has played a huge part in the poll debacle, there are other areas of concern too - the lack of strong state leaders who can get the votes, the inability to stitch alliances with key regional partners and the most importantly - the lack of internal democracy. Rahul has been quite vociferous about the need to revamp the Congress in his rather limited interaction with the media over the last five years, things like internal primaries before candidate selection (a move that proved to be a complete failure in the Lok Sabha elections), increasing the representation of women, empowering the Youth Congress et all. As such, the High Command - the Congress equivalent of the Communist 'Politburo' believes that there are important issues to be settled than warming the Opposition benches. This is true especially with the elections in Maharashtra and Haryana - two INC ruled states which the BJP and its allies literally swept, just around the corner. Another cause of concern for the INC would be that Rahul does not have any experience to take up this tough job. In fact, in the last Lok Sabha, the Vice President's attendance has been mere 42 percent; you see if Baba was a BE student, he would not have been able to answer the semester exams. With reports indicating that Rahul himself was not too keen to take up the job, the names doing the rounds were that of former Union ministers - Kamal Nath and Veerappa Moily. However, the appointment of Kharge as the head of the Congress parliamentary board did come in as a surprise.

While the Congress leaders may go to great lengths defending this decision, it is easy to see what why this is another mistake that the INC has done in the last few months. One of the reasons that Modi held the upper hand over Rahul during the course of the elections was that while the former had served and delivered as the Chief Minister of Gujarat, the latter was seen as a 'reluctant politician who never took any post'. In the decade that the UPA was in power, the Amethi MP was never a part of the government, he did not speak on subjects like corruption and women's safety when they shook the conscience of the nation or never articulated his views on important issues either in the Parliament or in the media. Of course, loyalists would spring to his defence; they will recall that 'infamous' news conference where the younger Gandhi literally forced the government to scrap that Ordinance to protect convicted MPs, a decision which was taken earlier in an all-party meeting headed by the Prime Minister (Link) or his fiery speech in the Talkatora stadium after his anointment as the chief of his party's election campaign where he vetoed the UPA regime to increase the cap on subsidized LPG cylinders for domestic use from 9 to 12. However, such 'symbolic' gestures are definitely not enough. That disastrous interview to Arnab where he talked only about RTI and women's empowerment was for many, one of the key turning points of the 2014 General Elections. For a voter like me, it was proof that Rahul had still a long way to go before he could even be 'considered', yes you read it right, 'considered' to be the PM of the world's largest democracy. As the head of the Congress, the 43 year old would have got crucial first hand experience that would come in handy in the future. The post would be an ideal platform for him to understand politics better, build a rapport with leaders across party lines and most importantly, help him in placing his point of view before the masses. As a matter of fact, several ex-Prime Ministers including Vajpayee, Narasimha Rao and even Rajeev Gandhi had served as the Leader of the Opposition and there is no reason as to why the junior Gandhi should not have done the same.

It makes sense for us to sit back and ponder as to what kind of message has the Congress sent to both, its workers and the people of the country by taking this decision. Lets suppose, the UPA had done the impossible, what I mean to say is the hypothetical situation wherein the UPA would have come to power for a third consecutive term. There was no question whatsoever as to who would become the PM of the country. The standard party line would be that since Rahul led the party's campaign, it would be 'natural' for him to take up the top job too. Now that the outfit has done miserably and considering the same argument, it is logical that Rahul should lead his party men in the Parliament as they shift from the treasury to the opposition benches. A good captain never abandons his ship, rather prefers going down with it. By refusing to head the Congress now, the Amethi MP has in some way, refused to own his share of responsibility. The effect that this move can potentially have on the cadre could be deadly. I mean who would like to work for an organization where the management takes the credit for all success but refuses to acknowledge its role in defeat. Certainly not me. I believe that thousands of Congress workers who worked for the party during the polls would be shattered by this development. Of course, there are many who still swear by the first family, the ones who feel they can do no wrong. However, the India of 2014 is certainly not the India of the 1970s and Rahul does not have the charisma that say, his grand mother had. While he may come across as a 'nice guy', there is no doubt that the move has not gone well with a lot of people. At a time when questions are being raised about his style of leadership, the least that he could have done is head the Congress legislative party at least for the time being and then take up some tough decisions to rejuvenate the party. May be, a few months down the line, he could have actually moved out.

Lastly, the move to appoint Kharge shows that the INC has certainly not learnt its lessons. With the likes of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi in the Parliament, will the Gulbarga MP be able to take decisions on his own? Come on. Manmohan Singh served as the PM for two consecutive terms but it is an 'open secret' that it was the UPA chairperson who called the shots during UPA I. In UPA II, the situation 'deteriorated' further with Rahul embarrassing the government on numerous occasions. In fact, it was evident that there was a certain amount of friction between the PM and the Congress VP and both were not on the same wavelength on several issues. Rahul did not even attend the farewell dinner for the outgoing PM hosted by his mother just a few days before the results were announced. Kharge's appointment has given scope for a similar situation to arise in the future. With Sonia Gandhi not keeping well, there could potentially be two power centers in the party in the Lok Sabha. While the former Union minister will take on the Modi government in the Parliament, Rahul will still command respect. After all, in the INC your abilities do not matter, as long as you belong to the Nehru-Gandhi parivar. As such, you should not be surprised if the two have serious differences of opinion on several matters. Besides, the decision has given ammunition to a stronger, more vibrant BJP to take pot shots at its nemesis. But by refusing to head the Congress party rightly, Rahul has certainly missed the first opportunity to set the things right in his party and may have contributed in weakening it further.

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Post Jagran
Source: Union Minister Mallikarjun Kharge open to become Karnataka CM (Link)

UTTAR PRADESH & LOK SABHA 2014

THE BATTLE OF BATTLES

Now we come to the big daddy of all - the state of Uttar Pradesh. Having encompassed the entire country, we can now spend some time analyzing the most populous state of the country. Actually, only five countries in the entire world including India have more people than UP. With 80 parliamentary seats up for grabs, the way to Delhi truly passes via Lucknow. In the past though, we have seen that none of the four major parties here have been able to win a decisive victory as far as the last three Lok Sabha elections are concerned. However, in the last two state elections, the mandate has been clear; while Maya crossed the 200 mark in 2007, Akhilesh did even better two years ago (Link). Now the question is whether any of the four main contenders can do the same in the 2014. After that stunning victory, the SP is confident of a good showing. The Congress and the RLD are hopeful of doing what they did in the last General Elections. Mayawati is keen on a comeback whereas the BJP is hopeful that the Modi wave will help them boost their figures.

ISSUES

(1) Development: While it is India's largest state, UP has lagged behind others like Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu in terms of industrial development. In spite of having extensive natural resources at its disposal, fertile soil and abundant water, majority of people continue to remain poor. One of the biggest reasons for this is has been that the local politics has been dominated by factors like caste and religion. However, this time the BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi has focused his election agenda on the plank of development. Of course this doesn't mean that there has been no caste or communal polarization by the saffron camp. However, the ground reality remains that the people here are keen to usher in development and enjoy fruits of it.

(2) Performance of the Akhilesh Yadav: It has been a little over two years since the young Akhilesh was placed at the helm of affairs in Lucknow. At 39 years old, he was one of the youngest CMs of the country and a lot was expected from him. Probably, the General Elections are the best time to see if the SP leader has been able to win the hearts of the people or not. While his regime has been true to some of its electoral promises made during the campaign, the fact remains that the law and order situation in the state has deteriorated, like in earlier Samajwadi regimes. The failure to prevent the Muzaffarnagar riots and the suspension of upright officer Durga Shakti Nagpal have been blots on the young leader's career so far.

(3) Caste Equations: As mentioned earlier, the caste equations have traditionally dominated the politics in this state since independence. The BSP supremo Mayawati whose famed 'Social Engineering' saw her sweeping the 2007 polls has gone back to the drawing board, hopeful that selection of candidates based on their caste would help her stage a grand come back. Besides, the Dalit votes, she is trying to woo the Brahmins who played a key in her victory seven years ago. The SP is dependent on the support of the Yadavs. The BJP, known as a party of the Upper Castes has roped in the Kurmi outfit - the Apna Dal in its fold.

(4) Communal Polarization: Apart from caste politics, another matter of concern in the big state is communal polarization. This certainly works here as seen during the early nineties when the BJP swept the state, riding on the sentiments following the demolition of the Babri Masjid. The candidature of Narendra Modi has made 'Secularism' a major talking point across the nation, more so in UP which accounts for nearly half of the country's total Muslim population. Moreover, after the Muzaffarnagar riots (Link) in Western UP, communal flares are running high. Amit Shah, whose role in the alleged fake encounters in Gujarat has come under the scanner has been made the head of the BJP's campaign in UP. His visit to the Ram Janmabhoomi and his call to avenge the Muzaffarnagar riots are clearly an attempt to help it win votes on religious lines. SP Muslim face Azam Khan went a step further, claiming that it were 'Muslim' soldiers in the Indian army that won the Kargil war and later even refused to apologize. Congress president Sonia Gandhi met the Shahi Imam Syed Ahmed Bukhari to help consolidate minority votes. Even Mayawati has given many seats to Muslims.

CONTENDERS

(1) Samajwadi Party (SP): There were a lot of expectations as young Akhilesh Yadav was made the CM of UP after he led the party to a handsome victory in the state assembly polls. Two years down the line though, nothing seems to have changed. While his performance has been much better than that of the preceding Mayawati regime, the young Turk's inability to protect the Muslims during the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013 has led to bad press. With his son in Lucknow, daddy Mulayum Singh Yadav is eyeing a bigger role for himself in national politics, having been a founder member of the Third Front (Link). If he does manage to win over 25 seats, he could be the Federal coalition's PM choice. Apart from highlighting their regime's 'development' work, the SP is also hoping to benefit from communal polarization, especially in the aftermath of the riots and the candidature of Narendra Modi. In fact, senior leader and outfit's Muslim face Azam Khan had been banned by the EC from campaigning for flaring up religious sentiments. Also, in a bid to stem the Modi wave, Mulayum has also decided to contest from Azamgarh, besides his traditional seat of Mainpuri. Other candidates include the CM's wife Dimple Yadav (Kannauj) and party supremo's nephews - Akshay Yadav (Firozabad) and Dharmendra Yadav (Badaun).

(2) Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP): For two long years, Behenji has virtually lost her political dominance in the big state to her bete noire - the SP. After that drubbing she got in 2012, the former UP CM is hopeful that the next Lok Sabha would see her making a grand comeback. However, the BSP's campaign has been rather lackluster. It has not been able to project itself as a strong contender here. Even the talks of alliance with the Congress, something that was doing the rounds for some time failed as Mayawati realized from her past experiences that her allies' votes do not go to her outfit. At the same time we need to keep in mind that she just cannot be written off. The Dalit leader may well spring a surprise like she has done in the past. As usual, she has relied on the caste equations to win seats. Her party's candidates include a mix of mix of SCs, STs, Muslims, Thakurs and Brahmins. Prominent amongst these are Akbar Hussain (Rampur), Shah Alam (Azamgarh), Qadir Rana (Muzaffarnagar), Mukul Upadhyaya (Ghaziabad), Satish Awana (Noida), Seema Upadhyaya (Fatehpur Sikri), and Narayan Singh (Agra).

(3) United Progressive Alliance: In 2009, the Congress performed out of its skin to win over 20 seats. This time, though it has the RLD with it, crossing even the 10 mark is going to be extremely difficult. Even former CM and veteran Congress leader Jagdambika Pal has crossed over to the BJP. The INC found itself in the centre of a controversy as its candidate Imran Masood in a video film threatened to cut Modi into pieces. He was later sent to judicial custody in what turned out to be an embarrassment for the party. As brother Rahul faced stiff competition from Smriti Irani and Kumar Vishwas, sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra came to the rescue, campaigning in the pocket boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli. Her war of words with Narendra Modi - the 'Neech Rajneeti' comment and with her cousin Varun provided fodder to the media. The party's nominees include the president Sonia Gandhi (Rae Bareli), her son and vice president Rahul Gandhi (Amethi), former state party president Rita Bahuguna (Lucknow), film stars Raj Babbar (Ghaziabad) and Nagma (Meerut), cricketer Mohammad Kaif (Phoolpur) and ministers - Sri Prakash Jaiswal (Kanpur) and Salman Khurshid (Farrukhabad).

The Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) is fighting the polls in alliance with the Congress. However, the situation for Ajit Singh led party is precarious. The Muzaffarnagar riots have led to a split between the two traditional voters in western UP - the Jats and the Muslims. It is believed that while the former are gravitating towards the BJP, the former may vote for the BSP. The Union government's decision to grant reservation for the Jats may help retain the farmer votes. Also, the party welcomed former SP leader Amar Singh (Link) some time back. Its key candidates include chief Ajit Singh (Baghpat), his son Jayant Chaudhary (Mathura), Amar Singh (Fatehpur Sikri) and his aide Jaya Prada (Rampur).

(4) National Democratic Alliance: For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its Mission 272+ to succeed, it has to win a significant number of parliamentary seats in UP. The saffron camp has come up with a two fold strategy to do well in the state that propelled it on to the national stage. Firstly, the party is banking on Modi's development agenda to strike a chord with the electorate who seem to have been left out of the India growth story. Secondly, for the BJP which came into prominence banking on the Hindutva plank following the demolition of the Babri Masjid, the Muzaffarnagr riots seems to have given it just the kind of the opening that it was looking for. Narendra Modi's close aide Amit Shah was deputed to UP to strengthen the grass root organization and help the party increase its tally. In fact, Shah was gagged by the Election Commission for his revenge remark while campaigning in the communally sensitive Western UP. However, he was let off after he expressed regret for his remark. Another controversy that the party found itself in was the candidature of Modi from Varanasi, a seat represented by senior leader M M Joshi. Though the saffron leader was said to be keen to re-contest from there, he was 'forced' to move to Kanpur. The BJP's candidates include Narendra Modi (Varanasi), Murali Manohar Joshi (Kanpur), Rajnath Singh (Lucknow), Menaka Gandhi (Pilibhit), Varun Gandhi (Sultanpur) and General V K Singh (Ghaziabad).

The Kurmi outfit Apna Dal (AD) has entered into an electoral alliance with the BJP. Party leader Anupriya Patel, who is the daughter of the party founder late Dr. Sonelal Patel will contest from Mirzapur. Meanwhile, Harivansh Singh has been given the ticket from Pratapgarh. The coalition is expected to help the NDA get the support of the Patel community which is strong in some pockets.

(5) Aam Admi Party (AAP): Three of the top AAP leaders are contesting from the big state as the newly launched outfit is planning to make a sensational debut this General Elections. Chief Arvind Kejriwal who resigned as the Delhi CM has filed his nomination from Varanasi against Narendra Modi in what is expected to be the mother of all battles. The kind of support he is getting shows that the temple town along the Ganga is not going to be a cake walk for the Gujarat CM. Poet turned politician Kumar Vishwas has jumped into the fray against another big name - Rahul Gandhi from Amethi. Having come to his constituency nearly three months ago, he is keen to work upon the early bird advantage. Another AAP leader and former journalist Shazia Ilmi is contesting against former Army General V K Singh from Ghaziabad.

PAST PERFORMANCE

In 1996, it was the BJP which swept the state winning as many as 52 seats and the Samajwadis emerged as the second largest party in UP while the Congress and the BSP were reduced to single digits. Two years later, the saffronists ended up with 57 seats, the highest that any party has got in the big state over the last two decades. While the NDA came to power in 1999, its tally here was reduced by half. The SP came in at a close second and the BSP and the INC crossed into the two digit mark. Five years down the line, Mulayum's party reached its zenith, winning 35 seats. Even Maya bagged 19 seats while the BJP's numbers plummeted to just 10, one more than the INC. Finally in 2009, the SP slipped to 23 although it did end up as the largest party in the state. The big surprise was the Congress which bagged 21 seats, one more than the BSP. The BJP cut a sorry figure at 10.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Samajwadi Party (SP)	23	35	26	20	16
Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	20	19	14	4	6
Congress	21	9	10	-	5
Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)	5	3	2	-	-
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	10	10	29	57	52
Others	1	4	4	4	6

(1) There were 85 seats in the state of Uttar Pradesh before the creation of Uttarakhand in 2001.

MY PREDICTIONS

The Modi wave in Uttar Pradesh coupled by some smart decisions made on the ground by Amit Shah will help the BJP and its allies win close to 50 seats. The SP will be the runners up and may win up to 15 seats. The BSP will struggle to cross into two digits whereas the Congress-RLD combine will virtually be wiped out.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	NDA (BJP + AD)	46-50
2	Samajwadi Party (SP)	12-16
3	Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	7-11
4	UPA (Congress + RLD)	3-7
5	Others	0-2

WATCH OUT

(1) A Modi wave in UP? With Amit Shah supervising the party campaign in Uttar Pradesh, many are expecting a Modi wave in UP. The state sends 80 MPs to the Lower House and a good showing here could propel the NDA close to the half way mark. The best showing that the saffronists had here was in 1998 when the BJP under Vajpayee won as many as 57 seats. There is no doubt that Modi's nomination from Varanasi was an effort to help the party's cause in the country's most populous state (Link). The question is whether the saffron camp can replicate that success, especially with the grass root organization being weakened and the star emergence of the two regional players - the SP and the BSP.

(2) Performance of the three regional players and their role in the Third Front: For the Third Front to have any chance whatsoever of coming to power, the regional parties have to do well. In fact with the SP and the BSP chiefs not seeing eye to eye, practically only one of the two i.e. the one which finishes with more seats could be a part of such a confederation. With the SP winning a massive electoral victory in 2012 state polls, Mulayum is expected to do well. The former UP CM like many other regional players is said to be nursing PM ambitions. Mayawati too is keen to make a comeback. After being demolished in 2012, the Dalit ki Beti is hopeful that a 20+ show could help her regain some lost pride. Another small regional player is the RLD. Having been a part of both the NDA and the UPA over the last five years, it would not take much for him to change loyalties and help either of the three major coalitions in case they fall short of numbers in the Parliament.

(3) Can the Congress do a miracle, yet again? In 2009, the Congress did a extremely well, winning as many as 21 seats in UP. Considering that the party's organization has completely eroded here in the past, the performance was incredible. As usual, many Congressmen gave the credit of that spectacular showing to Rahul Gandhi. Of course, that bubble bursted in the 2012 state assembly elections when in spite of heavy campaigning by Baba, the grand old party failed to even cross the 25 mark; in fact, their performance even in the family boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli was bad. Besides, many believed that Varun Gandhi's controversial statement in Pilibhit helped consolidation of the Muslim votes in favor of the INC. Now, in 2014 the Gandhi in the saffron camp has not made any such statement. So the question is whether the Congress can even come to close to that figure in got in the last Lok Sabha polls.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

ANDHRA & LOK SABHA 2014

THE BATTLE ROYAL FOR SEEMANDHRA

I started this series - State & Lok Sabha 2014 in the last week of February when I wanted to discuss the effect the creation of Andhra Pradesh would have over the various political parties active in this part of the country. Of course, over the last two and a half months, the whole series has got a very good response which has propelled me to continue writing about the way different states will vote i.e. in my opinion. The learning about the politicians and political parties too has been extremely satisfying; I am sure that this knowledge will come in handy while analyzing elections in the future. Moreover, I did try my hand at predictions and have given the numbers that I believe the different outfits will get this time. Having encompassed 29 states, I think we have come a full circle as we discuss the other half of the erstwhile Andhra Pradesh - the Seemandhra and Rayalseema regions. 

Meanwhile, the state that sent the maximum number of Congress MPs to consecutive UPA regimes at the Centre seems to be voting differently. The Congress, after dividing Andhra seems to be heading for a disaster. The YSR Congress led by Jagan Mohan is on a roll, many believing that the Jagan juggernaut will end up as the single largest player and make it a prized catch for all major coalitions in New Delhi. On the other hand, Chandrababu Naidu too is keen in coming back into the limelight. In a bid to stop the YSRCP from running away with a massive tally, he joined back the NDA after a period of ten years. Former CM Kiran Kumar tried to exonerate himself from taking the blame for the division by resigning and forming the JSP. In a four cornered battle, who has the edge. Lets see if we can answer this question.

ISSUES

(1) Division of the state: No prizes for guessing as to which is the biggest election issue ahead of the Lok Sabha and state polls this time in Andhra. The kind of protests and the demonstrations that were seen both in the Parliament and the streets in Seemandhra tell us that the bifurcation is an extremely emotive subject. After being the fulcrum of two successive UPA regimes, there is no way that the voters in Andhra are going to forgive the Congress for this step which it seems to have taken in haste. One of the big problem area between the two new states is the capital city of Hyderabad. With many people from the coast having business interest in the IT destination, they wanted it to remain a part of Andhra. However, considering that the metropolis is situated right inside Telangana, there was no way this could be achieved. At present though, Hyderabad has been declared as joint capital for 10 years. The three regional players - the TDP, the YSRCP and the JSP have used the issue of bifurcation to train their guns on the INC.

(2) Getting a fair deal for Seemandhra: Whether you like it or not, Telangana is a reality. With this in mind, parties are now trying to get a fair deal - read as 'Special Economic Package', to soothe the nerves of the people in Seemandhra and Rayalseema. Amongst the issues that need to be settled between the new states is water sharing; considering the water disputes between other southern states, this seems to be a tough tasks. Also, Andhra has to get a new capital and the names doing the rounds include Vishakapatnam, Kurnool, Guntur, Tirupati and Vijaywada. Besides, the large number of people from the coast who have settled in Hyderabad need to be protected against bias of all kinds. The Congress tried to use this subject to protect its interest with Sonia Gandhi urging leaders to provide 'Special Status' to Andhra. However, at least the Opinion Polls suggest that the people are not willing to trust the grand old party, at least for the time being.

CONTENDERS

(1) Congress: After that incredible showing in 2009 wherein the party won 33 out of the 42 seats in AP, things started to go wrong for it after the tragic death of its charismatic CM Y S Rajashekar Reddy in a helicopter crash in September 2009. The party underestimated his son and Kadappa MP Jagan Mohan who went ahead with his yatra in spite of the opposition from the all high command. As the INC placed Rosaiah and then Kiran Kumar Reddy at the helm of affairs, Jagan launched the YSRCP. While the state government did manage to complete its full term, it lost a series of by elections to the newly launched regional outfit although Jagan was in the jail for over an year on charges of disproportionate assets. 

Fearing a blank here, the Congress devised a new strategy. It was to go ahead and form Telangana and earn the good will of the people there. Next, it hoped that the TRS would merge into it to further improve its prospects in the 17 parliamentary seats there. Also, it was hopeful that it could convince Jagan to join the UPA after the results were announced. Thus it could potentially still end up with 20 to 25 seats. However, in politics things don't go the way you want it to and the 'grand plan' flopped. The TRS refused to merge into the Congress whereas YSRCP too is not very keen to be a part of the UPA considering the anger against the INC on the ground. Meanwhile, it seems to be that the BJP has benefited from the fiasco at the expense of its rival. It has allied with the TDP and is also known to be wooing KCR's regional outfit in Telangana. 

In the run up to the polls, as many as nine sitting MPs from the region have jumped ship to other parties fearing that an association with the INC could potentially end their political careers. Even the incumbent CM Kiran Kumar Reddy has quit the Congress to float a new party. As such, film star Chiranjeevi is leading the party's election campaign here. Five Union Minister - K.C. Deo (Araku), Killi Krupa Rani (Srikakulam), M.M. Pallam Raju (Kakinada), Panabaka Lakshmi (Bapatla) and Kotla Jayasuryaprakash Reddy (Kurnool) and few new faces including social worker Thota Vijayalakshmi (Anakapalle) and MLC Vakati Narayana Reddy (Nellore) have been given tickets.

(2) National Democratic Alliance (NDA): After being sidelined in the state, first by YSR and subsequently by his son, the Telugu Desam party (TDP) chief Chandrababu Naidu is trying hard to make a strong comeback. It was believed that the YSRCP was leading the TDP in the opposition to the formation of Telanagana. However, the recently declared results in the local elections indicate that Naidu holds the edge. Moreover, after rejoining the NDA last month, there could be a consolidation of votes in case the much hyped 'Modi wave' does work in this part of the country. Even as the two parties came together to finalize the seat sharing arrangements, there were protests staged by cadre of both outfits. One week into the alliance, there was trouble again with TDP accusing the BJP of fielding weak candidates in Andhra. With the saffron party conceding few more seats to the regional player, things were finally sorted out. The TDP will contest 17 parliamentary seats here and its nominees include Ramesh Rathod (Adilabad), K Madan Mohan Rao (Zahirabad) and Banoth Mohan Lal (Mahbubabad). The party has given tickets to about three industrialists - Rayapati Sambasiva Rao (Narasaraopet), Galla Jayadev (Guntur) and Nama Nageswara Rao (Khammam).

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was 'hand-in-gloves' with the Congress during the formation of Telangana. Three months down the line while the former struggles in its old fortress, the latter is trying to put up a strong fight. As said earlier, the saffronists are expecting that the Modi wave will help it do well even in those states where it was never a strong player in the past. The tie-up with former ally - the TDP has further helped their cause. In fact, the importance of this alliance for the NDA as a whole can be deduced from the fact that the national party even gave up some of its assembly seats just to please the sulking Naidu. The nominees include party president Dr. K Haribabu (Vishakapatnam), former Union Minister Purandeshwari (Rajmpeta) who quit the Congress recently, Gokaraju Ganga Raju (Narsaraopur) and Karumanchi Jayaram (Tirupati).

Power star Pawan Kalyan too has pledged his support to the NDA in the run up to the 2014 General Polls in spite of the fact that his brother Chiranjeevi is with the Congress. It was earlier believed that he was to launch a political party to fight for the unity of the state. Meanwhile, he has been a star campaigner for the NDA alliance in Andhra as well as neighboring Karnataka.

(3) Y S R Congress Party (YSRCP): After the Congress refused to anoint him as the CM of Andhra Pradesh, Jagan Mohan Reddy left the grand old party to form the YSRCP to en cash on the emotions of the people who were saddened by the tragic death of his extremely popular father. Of course, the Congress tried its best to nip the newly formed outfit in the bud. While the junior Reddy was put behind the bars for 16 months, he fought back, winning by-election after by-election at the expense of Congress. The Union government's decision to split Andhra helped him further expand his party's reach in newer areas. Many were expecting the Jagan juggernaut to sweep the state, especially after a host of leaders from the INC joined him. However, the TDP-BJP pre-poll alliance has to some extent, stemmed the YSRCP wave in the coast. The results of the recently concluded local polls came in as a shocker for the party. Meanwhile, the YSRCP's candidates for Lok Sabha 2014 include Jagan's mother Y S Vijayamma (Vishakapatnam), his cousin Y S Avinash Reddy (Kadappa), industrialist Ayodhya Ramireddy (Narsaraopur) and former bureaucrat Varaprasad Rao Velagapalli (Tirupati).

(4) Jai Samaikyandhra Party (JSP): After being in power for over three years, Kiran Kumar Reddy - the last CM of a united Andhra left the Congress to form the JSP. However, the question is was it too late. I mean, Reddy continued to be in power even days before the Parliament went ahead with the division of the state. As such, many people still view the former CM to be one of the persons who did not do much to prevent the bifurcation. Moreover, many of his former cabinet colleagues who had assured Kiran of their support have now gone back on their word. Apart from him, the JSP lacks any face who can help them win any votes.

PAST PERFORMANCES

Finding the exact results for Seemandhra and Rayalseema, similar to the exercise I did for Telangana (Link) is difficult and time consuming. However, I will give a broad sense of how the regions of coastal Andhra and Rayalseema voted over the last five General Elections. In 1996, the TDP and the Congress shared the spoils almost equally in this part of the state. Two years later though, the grand old party held the upper hand. In the following year, it was Naidu who did did well. Over the last two elections, it has been the Congress led by the late CM Y S Rajashekar Reddy which propelled the UPA at the Centre.

MY PREDICTIONS

The TDP-BJP alliance seems to have take been able to take some steam off Jagan's campaign which was going pretty strong till the end of March. I believe that the coalition in a four cornered contest will help the NDA gain an edge over the others. In spite of this, YSR Congress will still give it a tough fought. The Congress, I think will be wiped out whereas the Jai Samaikyandhra Party (JSP) will also end up with a big zero.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	NDA (TDP + BJP)	12-16
2	YSR Congress	10-14
3	Congress	0-1
4	Jai Samaikyandhra Party (JSP)	0

WATCH OUT

(1) The 2014 state elections: Though Andhra will go to the polls as a single entity, the new state of Telangana will be carved out on 2^nd June. Now that the split is a reality, the question will be as to who will become the first Chief Minister of Seemandhra post the division. With anger simmering against the Congress, the race is clearly between Jagan Mohan Reddy and Chandrababu Naidu. While the YSRCP chief has momentum on his side, following the sting of victories in several by-elections, the TDP helped its cause by allying with the BJP.

(2) Congress - a sinking ship: The excellent show in Andhra Pradesh was responsible for the formation of two Congress led UPA regimes in 2004 and 2009. However, post the death of YSR, the revolt of his son Jagan and the furor over the creation of Telangana is set to wipe out the party in this part of the country. The INC has just one leader here - film star Chiranjeevi but with emotions running high, it is unlikely that he will have any impact on the polls. Will the grand old party make a comeback? How many years will it take for the Congress to win back the confidence of the people? Most importantly, who will lead the INC in Andhra?

(3) Naidu makes a comeback? The TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu was once the poster boy in the southern state, credited for the rise of capital Hyderabad as one of the major IT destinations in the country. However, after two successive victories, the TDP was wiped off in 2004 state and Lok Sabha polls which also marked the rise of the Y S Rajashekar Reddy. Naidu tried to put the blame on the BJP as he broke off from the NDA. However, the trend continued in 2009 when, in spite of the grand alliance, Naidu was routed, yet again. Even in the run up to 2014, it was believed that Reddy's son Jagan was becoming the most prominent leader of the Seemandhra region. However, the alliance with the BJP may help Naidu climb the ladder and regain his lost political status.

(4) Which way will Jagan go? All Opinion Polls are predicting the YSRCP to win in excess of 10 seats. Now that makes Jagan Mohan one of the most sought after political ally post May 16 in case both the major formations fall short of majority. In fact, even the YSRCP chief has kept all his options open. Earlier, he had claimed that he did not have any problems in joining hands with the NDA led by Modi. Also, he may even forget the treatment meted out to him by Congress post the death of his father and support the UPA. Moreover, supporting the Third Front will be much more easy, though the possibilities of such a coalition ruling the country is almost negligible.

(5) The future of Kiran Kumar Reddy and the JSP: It is difficult to predict as to who will finish as the biggest party in Andhra - the TDP-BJP combine or the YSRCP but there is unanimous agreement on the fact that the JSP is not a challenger at all. In fact, many feel that in spite of resigning from the Congress and floating a new outfit, Reddy is still believed by many to be ineffective in adverting the division of the state. If the former CM does as badly as expected, it will be interesting to see what his next move will be. Will he join either YSRCP or the TDP? May be, he may walk back into the Congress.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

TAMIL NADU & LOK SABHA 2014

CAN JAYA SINK THE DMK'S SUN?

From Bengal, we move to another state which is ruled by a lady politician - the southern state of Tamil Nadu. In 2011 state elections, the AIADMK led alliance swept the state, winning a staggering 201 of the 234 seats. While Amma's outfit walked away with 150 seats, her ally the DMDK (Link) finished as the second largest party as it ending with an impressive tally of 29 seats. The DMK was decimated. In fact when Vijaykanth decided against joining the Jaya government, he became the Leader of Opposition, relegating Karuna's party to the third spot. Three years down the line, things have changed to some extent. The AIADMK supremo is nurturing Prime Ministerial ambitions, hopeful that a tally of say about 30 odd seats will make the 'natural' leader of a Third Front. The DMK is no more a constituent of the UPA, having broken off from the INC led coalition following differences over the Lankan Tamil issue. The BJP on the other hand has stitched together a 'Half Rainbow' alliance in the state (Link) with several smaller Dravidian parties. The Congress though is left in the lurch; without any strong allies on its side, it seems to be headed towards a rout.

ISSUES

(1) Performance test of the Jaya government: It has been three years since the AIADMK registered a landslide victory in the state elections, relegating the DMK to the third spot. Having completed more than half of her tenure, the Tamil Nadu CM's performance will be under the scanner. The 'Amma Eateries' serving highly subsidized food has been a big hit across the state, run by women's self help groups. Other welfare measures include the 'Amma Marundagam ' (Medical Stores) and free laptops to students studying in standard XII and Polytechnic colleges. The law and order situation has improved as compared to that under the previous Karunanidhi regime. On the ground, the AIADMK is said to be the strongest political party, ahead of the others, especially with the DMK in disarray and the Congress fighting the polls alone.

(2) Anti-incumbency against the UPA: With corruption becoming a major issue across the nation, the Congress is clearly on the back foot. One of the biggest scams in the second tenure of the Congress led coalition government has been the 2G scam, perhaps running into thousands of crores. This is important because the prime accused in this fiasco has been the former Telecom Minister A Raja of the DMK. In fact, one of the beneficiary of this allegedly has been Karuna's daughter and Rajya Sabha MP Kanimozhi. Thus while the DMK did pull out of the UPA late last year, the stigma of 'corruption' has not been washed away, at least not yet. Even the performance of the last DMK regime was much below par. This is certainly going to further help the AIADMK and the NDA win votes.

(3) Lankan Tamil Issue: In the last days of the 2009 Lankan civil war as the island nation's army decimated the LTTE, it is alleged that severe atrocities were committed by men in uniform against the Tamils. Videos from various organizations around the world have given 'questionable' evidence of armymen killing the minorities in cold blood including Prabhakaran's young son and LTTE loyalist Isapriya. With the US planning to move a resolution against the Sri Lankan government in the UN, the DMK pulled out of the UPA alleging that the Congress was not ready to accept its suggestions. The whole issue has snowballed into a major poll issue in the state with both the Dravidian parties accusing the Centre of not doing anything to protect the Tamils in Jaffna. Of course, we also need to take into account that we cannot displease our southern neighbor which is also a strategic partner.

Another issue, perhaps linked to this is the drama over the release of the people convicted in the assassination of former PM Rajiv Gandhi. With the Supreme Court commuting the death sentence of three of the convicts to life, the Jaya government tried to secure brownie points by announcing that it would release all the seven people associated with the case. This was met with stiff opposition from the Congress who called this a betrayal. The SC later intervened and has stayed the move.

CONTENDERS

(1) All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK): After that spectacular victory in the last state polls, AIADMK supremo is buoyed and has started voicing her national ambitions as the calls for a Third Front are growing louder. This is reflected in the party manifesto too. However, the wily politician that she is, she 'forced' the Left in breaking ties with her outfit, aware that each seat in her kitty would make her more powerful nationally. The numerous welfare schemes that her government has launched, the anti-incumbency against the UPA and the dissidence within the DMK are working to Amma's advantage. In fact, the AIADMK may give tough competition to the likes of the TMC and the Left to emerge as the third largest player in the Parliament. The AIADMK's candidates include T G Venkatesh Babu (Chennai North), Dr J Jayavardhan (Chennai South), S R Vijayakumar (Chennai Central), P Senguttuvan (Vellore), V Panneerselvam (Salem), P Kumar (Trichy), R Gopalakrishnan (Madurai) and D John Thangam (Kannyakumari).

(2) Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA): Like so many constituents of the UPA, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) too is struggling, to say the least. Apart from the fact that it finished third in the state assembly, even behind Vijayakanth's DMDK, the power struggle within the Dravidian outfit's first family has led many to believe that the DMK would struggle to even cross the two digit mark. The stigma of the multi-crore 2G scam seem to have stuck to the party even after it left the UPA. With Karunanidhi expelling southern strong man Alagiri, the polls are a big test of the leadership for the 'crown prince' Stalin. Aware that the party's tally is set go southwards, the party has tied up with several smaller players like the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), the Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK), the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and the Puthiya Tamizhagam (PT) to consolidate anti-AIADMK votes. The regional player's candidates include Stalin loyalist R Girirajan (Chennai North), T K S Elangovan (Chennai South), A K S Vijayan (Nagapattinam), V Velusamy (Madurai) and former Union Ministers - S. Gandhi Selvan (Namakkal), T R Baalu (Thanjavur) and 2G tainted A Raja (Nilgiris).

(3) Congress: The grand old party is in a fix in the southern most state. Without any strong Dravidian ally on its side, the INC seems to be headed towards doomsday. The fact that several of its key leaders including Finance Minister P Chidambaram and Shipping Minister G K Vasan have refused to contest in 2014 is an indication of the big rout staring in the face of the party. Adding to its woes is the Union government's refusal to back a 'strong' US led resolution against Sri Lanka in the United Nations implicating it of genocide against the country's Tamil population during the last days of the Civil War in 2009. Some of the party's candidates here include Finance Minister's son Karti Chidamabaram (Sivaganga) and veteran leader Mani Shankar Aiyar (Mayiladuturai).

(4) National Democratic Alliance (NDA): Aware that the saffron outfit does not have any significance presence in Tamil country, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) cobbled together the 'Half Rainbow' alliance by bringing together several smaller Dravidian parties to give it a fighting chance, especially after the talks with Jaya failed to materialize. Leading the NDA here is film star Vijayakant of the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) which emerged as the second largest party in the assembly and polled 10 percent of the votes in the 2009 Lok Sabha. Besides, Ramadoss of the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and firebrand leader Vaiko of Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) too have pledged their support to Modi. Other smaller players in this coalition are the Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi (KMDK) which has some influence in the Kongu region and the Indiya Jananayaka Katchi (IJK). The BJP's PM nominee also met superstar Rajnikanth during his visit to Chennai.

PAST PERFORMANCE

In 1996, G K Moopanar split from the Congress over its decision to ally with the AIADMK and formed the Tamil Maanila Congres (Moopanar) - TMC(M). He joined hands with the DMK and the CPI(M) and the alliance - the United Front won all the 39 seats in the state. Two years down the line though, the results were dramatically different. The AIADMK, the PMK, the MDMK and Subramaniam Swamy's Janata Party joined the BJP-led NDA and won 30 seats. The DMK and the TMC(M) finished with a tally of 9. Elections were scheduled a year later as Jaya pulled the plug on the Vajpayee government during the crucial trust vote. The saffron camp now allied with the DMK, Ramados and Vaiko. The new look NDA finished as the largest coalition with 25 seats while Jaya and the Congress took 12 and 2 seats each. In 2004, Jaya was with the BJP whereas the DMK was now in the UPA along with the PMK and MDMK. This was one of the blunders that cost Vajpayee a second consecutive term. The results were a white wash in favor of the UPA. In the last General polls, the UPA continued to dominate with 27 seats whereas the AIADMK combine bagged 12 seats.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (AIADMK)	9	-	10	18	-
Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (DMK)	18	16	12	5	17
Congress	6	6	3	1	9
Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (MDMK)	1	4	4	3	-
Paattali Makkal Katchi (PMK)	-	5	5	4	-
Others	3	4	2	6	22

MY PREDICTIONS

The AIADMK is all set to cross the 20 seat mark and may even end up as the third largest party in the Parliament. Its rally will be dented to some extent by the DMK which is making a come back of sorts. The NDA will pick up a few seats whereas the Congress and others may, at max win up to 2 seats.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	All India Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (AIADMK)	21-25
2	Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (DMK+)	9-13
3	National Democratic Alliance (NDA)	3-6
4	Others (Congress/Left)	0-2

WATCH OUT

(1) Jaya - Potential PM candidate: Should the AIADMK win over 30 seats and there is a chance for a Federal Front to come to power, the party chief will be the strongest contender to become the PM of the nation. Even in the run up to the polls, Amma has on several occasions has given indications that she nurses national ambitions. The shrewd politician that she is, she even walked out of an alliance with the Left parties to maximize her individual tally. Even in case the Third Front may not come to power, Jaya with 30 odd MPs will be in a solid position for some hard bargaining with either the NDA or the UPA.

(2) The split in the DMK and the future of Alagiri: How much of an impact will the suspension of Alagiri have on the prospects of the DMK, especially in the southern districts where Karuna's estranged son has some kind of a clout. The war of succession that began as early as 1996 when Vaiko was shown the door seem to have been settled finally. With his last rival being shunted out and the Marans cut to size, the path is clear for the former Deputy CM Stalin to lead the party in the post Karuna era. Meanwhile, his elder sibling's next move will be very interesting. Though joining the AIADMK can be ruled out, he may join some other party like the BJP or Vaiko's MDMK or even float a new party. One more possibility is that in case the DMK is wiped out, Karuna may even mend fences with Alagiri to strengthen the party.

(3) Performances of the smaller party: In 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the DMDK polled 10 percent of the total votes though it did not pick any seats. In the next state legislative assembly elections, the party ended up as the second largest party. The point I wish to make is that we need to see how the performance of these smaller parties would be and if the coalition stitched together by the BJP would last post elections. I mean, the DMDK, the MDMK and the PMK and the BJP alliance may end up giving a tough fight to the two major Dravidian parties a tough fight. A wild idea, I know but still a possibility.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)