UTTAR PRADESH & LOK SABHA 2014

THE BATTLE OF BATTLES

Now we come to the big daddy of all - the state of Uttar Pradesh. Having encompassed the entire country, we can now spend some time analyzing the most populous state of the country. Actually, only five countries in the entire world including India have more people than UP. With 80 parliamentary seats up for grabs, the way to Delhi truly passes via Lucknow. In the past though, we have seen that none of the four major parties here have been able to win a decisive victory as far as the last three Lok Sabha elections are concerned. However, in the last two state elections, the mandate has been clear; while Maya crossed the 200 mark in 2007, Akhilesh did even better two years ago (Link). Now the question is whether any of the four main contenders can do the same in the 2014. After that stunning victory, the SP is confident of a good showing. The Congress and the RLD are hopeful of doing what they did in the last General Elections. Mayawati is keen on a comeback whereas the BJP is hopeful that the Modi wave will help them boost their figures.

ISSUES

(1) Development: While it is India's largest state, UP has lagged behind others like Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu in terms of industrial development. In spite of having extensive natural resources at its disposal, fertile soil and abundant water, majority of people continue to remain poor. One of the biggest reasons for this is has been that the local politics has been dominated by factors like caste and religion. However, this time the BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi has focused his election agenda on the plank of development. Of course this doesn't mean that there has been no caste or communal polarization by the saffron camp. However, the ground reality remains that the people here are keen to usher in development and enjoy fruits of it.

(2) Performance of the Akhilesh Yadav: It has been a little over two years since the young Akhilesh was placed at the helm of affairs in Lucknow. At 39 years old, he was one of the youngest CMs of the country and a lot was expected from him. Probably, the General Elections are the best time to see if the SP leader has been able to win the hearts of the people or not. While his regime has been true to some of its electoral promises made during the campaign, the fact remains that the law and order situation in the state has deteriorated, like in earlier Samajwadi regimes. The failure to prevent the Muzaffarnagar riots and the suspension of upright officer Durga Shakti Nagpal have been blots on the young leader's career so far.

(3) Caste Equations: As mentioned earlier, the caste equations have traditionally dominated the politics in this state since independence. The BSP supremo Mayawati whose famed 'Social Engineering' saw her sweeping the 2007 polls has gone back to the drawing board, hopeful that selection of candidates based on their caste would help her stage a grand come back. Besides, the Dalit votes, she is trying to woo the Brahmins who played a key in her victory seven years ago. The SP is dependent on the support of the Yadavs. The BJP, known as a party of the Upper Castes has roped in the Kurmi outfit - the Apna Dal in its fold.

(4) Communal Polarization: Apart from caste politics, another matter of concern in the big state is communal polarization. This certainly works here as seen during the early nineties when the BJP swept the state, riding on the sentiments following the demolition of the Babri Masjid. The candidature of Narendra Modi has made 'Secularism' a major talking point across the nation, more so in UP which accounts for nearly half of the country's total Muslim population. Moreover, after the Muzaffarnagar riots (Link) in Western UP, communal flares are running high. Amit Shah, whose role in the alleged fake encounters in Gujarat has come under the scanner has been made the head of the BJP's campaign in UP. His visit to the Ram Janmabhoomi and his call to avenge the Muzaffarnagar riots are clearly an attempt to help it win votes on religious lines. SP Muslim face Azam Khan went a step further, claiming that it were 'Muslim' soldiers in the Indian army that won the Kargil war and later even refused to apologize. Congress president Sonia Gandhi met the Shahi Imam Syed Ahmed Bukhari to help consolidate minority votes. Even Mayawati has given many seats to Muslims.

CONTENDERS

(1) Samajwadi Party (SP): There were a lot of expectations as young Akhilesh Yadav was made the CM of UP after he led the party to a handsome victory in the state assembly polls. Two years down the line though, nothing seems to have changed. While his performance has been much better than that of the preceding Mayawati regime, the young Turk's inability to protect the Muslims during the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013 has led to bad press. With his son in Lucknow, daddy Mulayum Singh Yadav is eyeing a bigger role for himself in national politics, having been a founder member of the Third Front (Link). If he does manage to win over 25 seats, he could be the Federal coalition's PM choice. Apart from highlighting their regime's 'development' work, the SP is also hoping to benefit from communal polarization, especially in the aftermath of the riots and the candidature of Narendra Modi. In fact, senior leader and outfit's Muslim face Azam Khan had been banned by the EC from campaigning for flaring up religious sentiments. Also, in a bid to stem the Modi wave, Mulayum has also decided to contest from Azamgarh, besides his traditional seat of Mainpuri. Other candidates include the CM's wife Dimple Yadav (Kannauj) and party supremo's nephews - Akshay Yadav (Firozabad) and Dharmendra Yadav (Badaun).

(2) Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP): For two long years, Behenji has virtually lost her political dominance in the big state to her bete noire - the SP. After that drubbing she got in 2012, the former UP CM is hopeful that the next Lok Sabha would see her making a grand comeback. However, the BSP's campaign has been rather lackluster. It has not been able to project itself as a strong contender here. Even the talks of alliance with the Congress, something that was doing the rounds for some time failed as Mayawati realized from her past experiences that her allies' votes do not go to her outfit. At the same time we need to keep in mind that she just cannot be written off. The Dalit leader may well spring a surprise like she has done in the past. As usual, she has relied on the caste equations to win seats. Her party's candidates include a mix of mix of SCs, STs, Muslims, Thakurs and Brahmins. Prominent amongst these are Akbar Hussain (Rampur), Shah Alam (Azamgarh), Qadir Rana (Muzaffarnagar), Mukul Upadhyaya (Ghaziabad), Satish Awana (Noida), Seema Upadhyaya (Fatehpur Sikri), and Narayan Singh (Agra).

(3) United Progressive Alliance: In 2009, the Congress performed out of its skin to win over 20 seats. This time, though it has the RLD with it, crossing even the 10 mark is going to be extremely difficult. Even former CM and veteran Congress leader Jagdambika Pal has crossed over to the BJP. The INC found itself in the centre of a controversy as its candidate Imran Masood in a video film threatened to cut Modi into pieces. He was later sent to judicial custody in what turned out to be an embarrassment for the party. As brother Rahul faced stiff competition from Smriti Irani and Kumar Vishwas, sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra came to the rescue, campaigning in the pocket boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli. Her war of words with Narendra Modi - the 'Neech Rajneeti' comment and with her cousin Varun provided fodder to the media. The party's nominees include the president Sonia Gandhi (Rae Bareli), her son and vice president Rahul Gandhi (Amethi), former state party president Rita Bahuguna (Lucknow), film stars Raj Babbar (Ghaziabad) and Nagma (Meerut), cricketer Mohammad Kaif (Phoolpur) and ministers - Sri Prakash Jaiswal (Kanpur) and Salman Khurshid (Farrukhabad).

The Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) is fighting the polls in alliance with the Congress. However, the situation for Ajit Singh led party is precarious. The Muzaffarnagar riots have led to a split between the two traditional voters in western UP - the Jats and the Muslims. It is believed that while the former are gravitating towards the BJP, the former may vote for the BSP. The Union government's decision to grant reservation for the Jats may help retain the farmer votes. Also, the party welcomed former SP leader Amar Singh (Link) some time back. Its key candidates include chief Ajit Singh (Baghpat), his son Jayant Chaudhary (Mathura), Amar Singh (Fatehpur Sikri) and his aide Jaya Prada (Rampur).

(4) National Democratic Alliance: For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its Mission 272+ to succeed, it has to win a significant number of parliamentary seats in UP. The saffron camp has come up with a two fold strategy to do well in the state that propelled it on to the national stage. Firstly, the party is banking on Modi's development agenda to strike a chord with the electorate who seem to have been left out of the India growth story. Secondly, for the BJP which came into prominence banking on the Hindutva plank following the demolition of the Babri Masjid, the Muzaffarnagr riots seems to have given it just the kind of the opening that it was looking for. Narendra Modi's close aide Amit Shah was deputed to UP to strengthen the grass root organization and help the party increase its tally. In fact, Shah was gagged by the Election Commission for his revenge remark while campaigning in the communally sensitive Western UP. However, he was let off after he expressed regret for his remark. Another controversy that the party found itself in was the candidature of Modi from Varanasi, a seat represented by senior leader M M Joshi. Though the saffron leader was said to be keen to re-contest from there, he was 'forced' to move to Kanpur. The BJP's candidates include Narendra Modi (Varanasi), Murali Manohar Joshi (Kanpur), Rajnath Singh (Lucknow), Menaka Gandhi (Pilibhit), Varun Gandhi (Sultanpur) and General V K Singh (Ghaziabad).

The Kurmi outfit Apna Dal (AD) has entered into an electoral alliance with the BJP. Party leader Anupriya Patel, who is the daughter of the party founder late Dr. Sonelal Patel will contest from Mirzapur. Meanwhile, Harivansh Singh has been given the ticket from Pratapgarh. The coalition is expected to help the NDA get the support of the Patel community which is strong in some pockets.

(5) Aam Admi Party (AAP): Three of the top AAP leaders are contesting from the big state as the newly launched outfit is planning to make a sensational debut this General Elections. Chief Arvind Kejriwal who resigned as the Delhi CM has filed his nomination from Varanasi against Narendra Modi in what is expected to be the mother of all battles. The kind of support he is getting shows that the temple town along the Ganga is not going to be a cake walk for the Gujarat CM. Poet turned politician Kumar Vishwas has jumped into the fray against another big name - Rahul Gandhi from Amethi. Having come to his constituency nearly three months ago, he is keen to work upon the early bird advantage. Another AAP leader and former journalist Shazia Ilmi is contesting against former Army General V K Singh from Ghaziabad.

PAST PERFORMANCE

In 1996, it was the BJP which swept the state winning as many as 52 seats and the Samajwadis emerged as the second largest party in UP while the Congress and the BSP were reduced to single digits. Two years later, the saffronists ended up with 57 seats, the highest that any party has got in the big state over the last two decades. While the NDA came to power in 1999, its tally here was reduced by half. The SP came in at a close second and the BSP and the INC crossed into the two digit mark. Five years down the line, Mulayum's party reached its zenith, winning 35 seats. Even Maya bagged 19 seats while the BJP's numbers plummeted to just 10, one more than the INC. Finally in 2009, the SP slipped to 23 although it did end up as the largest party in the state. The big surprise was the Congress which bagged 21 seats, one more than the BSP. The BJP cut a sorry figure at 10.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Samajwadi Party (SP)	23	35	26	20	16
Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	20	19	14	4	6
Congress	21	9	10	-	5
Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)	5	3	2	-	-
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	10	10	29	57	52
Others	1	4	4	4	6

(1) There were 85 seats in the state of Uttar Pradesh before the creation of Uttarakhand in 2001.

MY PREDICTIONS

The Modi wave in Uttar Pradesh coupled by some smart decisions made on the ground by Amit Shah will help the BJP and its allies win close to 50 seats. The SP will be the runners up and may win up to 15 seats. The BSP will struggle to cross into two digits whereas the Congress-RLD combine will virtually be wiped out.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	NDA (BJP + AD)	46-50
2	Samajwadi Party (SP)	12-16
3	Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	7-11
4	UPA (Congress + RLD)	3-7
5	Others	0-2

WATCH OUT

(1) A Modi wave in UP? With Amit Shah supervising the party campaign in Uttar Pradesh, many are expecting a Modi wave in UP. The state sends 80 MPs to the Lower House and a good showing here could propel the NDA close to the half way mark. The best showing that the saffronists had here was in 1998 when the BJP under Vajpayee won as many as 57 seats. There is no doubt that Modi's nomination from Varanasi was an effort to help the party's cause in the country's most populous state (Link). The question is whether the saffron camp can replicate that success, especially with the grass root organization being weakened and the star emergence of the two regional players - the SP and the BSP.

(2) Performance of the three regional players and their role in the Third Front: For the Third Front to have any chance whatsoever of coming to power, the regional parties have to do well. In fact with the SP and the BSP chiefs not seeing eye to eye, practically only one of the two i.e. the one which finishes with more seats could be a part of such a confederation. With the SP winning a massive electoral victory in 2012 state polls, Mulayum is expected to do well. The former UP CM like many other regional players is said to be nursing PM ambitions. Mayawati too is keen to make a comeback. After being demolished in 2012, the Dalit ki Beti is hopeful that a 20+ show could help her regain some lost pride. Another small regional player is the RLD. Having been a part of both the NDA and the UPA over the last five years, it would not take much for him to change loyalties and help either of the three major coalitions in case they fall short of numbers in the Parliament.

(3) Can the Congress do a miracle, yet again? In 2009, the Congress did a extremely well, winning as many as 21 seats in UP. Considering that the party's organization has completely eroded here in the past, the performance was incredible. As usual, many Congressmen gave the credit of that spectacular showing to Rahul Gandhi. Of course, that bubble bursted in the 2012 state assembly elections when in spite of heavy campaigning by Baba, the grand old party failed to even cross the 25 mark; in fact, their performance even in the family boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli was bad. Besides, many believed that Varun Gandhi's controversial statement in Pilibhit helped consolidation of the Muslim votes in favor of the INC. Now, in 2014 the Gandhi in the saffron camp has not made any such statement. So the question is whether the Congress can even come to close to that figure in got in the last Lok Sabha polls.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

ANDHRA & LOK SABHA 2014

THE BATTLE ROYAL FOR SEEMANDHRA

I started this series - State & Lok Sabha 2014 in the last week of February when I wanted to discuss the effect the creation of Andhra Pradesh would have over the various political parties active in this part of the country. Of course, over the last two and a half months, the whole series has got a very good response which has propelled me to continue writing about the way different states will vote i.e. in my opinion. The learning about the politicians and political parties too has been extremely satisfying; I am sure that this knowledge will come in handy while analyzing elections in the future. Moreover, I did try my hand at predictions and have given the numbers that I believe the different outfits will get this time. Having encompassed 29 states, I think we have come a full circle as we discuss the other half of the erstwhile Andhra Pradesh - the Seemandhra and Rayalseema regions. 

Meanwhile, the state that sent the maximum number of Congress MPs to consecutive UPA regimes at the Centre seems to be voting differently. The Congress, after dividing Andhra seems to be heading for a disaster. The YSR Congress led by Jagan Mohan is on a roll, many believing that the Jagan juggernaut will end up as the single largest player and make it a prized catch for all major coalitions in New Delhi. On the other hand, Chandrababu Naidu too is keen in coming back into the limelight. In a bid to stop the YSRCP from running away with a massive tally, he joined back the NDA after a period of ten years. Former CM Kiran Kumar tried to exonerate himself from taking the blame for the division by resigning and forming the JSP. In a four cornered battle, who has the edge. Lets see if we can answer this question.

ISSUES

(1) Division of the state: No prizes for guessing as to which is the biggest election issue ahead of the Lok Sabha and state polls this time in Andhra. The kind of protests and the demonstrations that were seen both in the Parliament and the streets in Seemandhra tell us that the bifurcation is an extremely emotive subject. After being the fulcrum of two successive UPA regimes, there is no way that the voters in Andhra are going to forgive the Congress for this step which it seems to have taken in haste. One of the big problem area between the two new states is the capital city of Hyderabad. With many people from the coast having business interest in the IT destination, they wanted it to remain a part of Andhra. However, considering that the metropolis is situated right inside Telangana, there was no way this could be achieved. At present though, Hyderabad has been declared as joint capital for 10 years. The three regional players - the TDP, the YSRCP and the JSP have used the issue of bifurcation to train their guns on the INC.

(2) Getting a fair deal for Seemandhra: Whether you like it or not, Telangana is a reality. With this in mind, parties are now trying to get a fair deal - read as 'Special Economic Package', to soothe the nerves of the people in Seemandhra and Rayalseema. Amongst the issues that need to be settled between the new states is water sharing; considering the water disputes between other southern states, this seems to be a tough tasks. Also, Andhra has to get a new capital and the names doing the rounds include Vishakapatnam, Kurnool, Guntur, Tirupati and Vijaywada. Besides, the large number of people from the coast who have settled in Hyderabad need to be protected against bias of all kinds. The Congress tried to use this subject to protect its interest with Sonia Gandhi urging leaders to provide 'Special Status' to Andhra. However, at least the Opinion Polls suggest that the people are not willing to trust the grand old party, at least for the time being.

CONTENDERS

(1) Congress: After that incredible showing in 2009 wherein the party won 33 out of the 42 seats in AP, things started to go wrong for it after the tragic death of its charismatic CM Y S Rajashekar Reddy in a helicopter crash in September 2009. The party underestimated his son and Kadappa MP Jagan Mohan who went ahead with his yatra in spite of the opposition from the all high command. As the INC placed Rosaiah and then Kiran Kumar Reddy at the helm of affairs, Jagan launched the YSRCP. While the state government did manage to complete its full term, it lost a series of by elections to the newly launched regional outfit although Jagan was in the jail for over an year on charges of disproportionate assets. 

Fearing a blank here, the Congress devised a new strategy. It was to go ahead and form Telangana and earn the good will of the people there. Next, it hoped that the TRS would merge into it to further improve its prospects in the 17 parliamentary seats there. Also, it was hopeful that it could convince Jagan to join the UPA after the results were announced. Thus it could potentially still end up with 20 to 25 seats. However, in politics things don't go the way you want it to and the 'grand plan' flopped. The TRS refused to merge into the Congress whereas YSRCP too is not very keen to be a part of the UPA considering the anger against the INC on the ground. Meanwhile, it seems to be that the BJP has benefited from the fiasco at the expense of its rival. It has allied with the TDP and is also known to be wooing KCR's regional outfit in Telangana. 

In the run up to the polls, as many as nine sitting MPs from the region have jumped ship to other parties fearing that an association with the INC could potentially end their political careers. Even the incumbent CM Kiran Kumar Reddy has quit the Congress to float a new party. As such, film star Chiranjeevi is leading the party's election campaign here. Five Union Minister - K.C. Deo (Araku), Killi Krupa Rani (Srikakulam), M.M. Pallam Raju (Kakinada), Panabaka Lakshmi (Bapatla) and Kotla Jayasuryaprakash Reddy (Kurnool) and few new faces including social worker Thota Vijayalakshmi (Anakapalle) and MLC Vakati Narayana Reddy (Nellore) have been given tickets.

(2) National Democratic Alliance (NDA): After being sidelined in the state, first by YSR and subsequently by his son, the Telugu Desam party (TDP) chief Chandrababu Naidu is trying hard to make a strong comeback. It was believed that the YSRCP was leading the TDP in the opposition to the formation of Telanagana. However, the recently declared results in the local elections indicate that Naidu holds the edge. Moreover, after rejoining the NDA last month, there could be a consolidation of votes in case the much hyped 'Modi wave' does work in this part of the country. Even as the two parties came together to finalize the seat sharing arrangements, there were protests staged by cadre of both outfits. One week into the alliance, there was trouble again with TDP accusing the BJP of fielding weak candidates in Andhra. With the saffron party conceding few more seats to the regional player, things were finally sorted out. The TDP will contest 17 parliamentary seats here and its nominees include Ramesh Rathod (Adilabad), K Madan Mohan Rao (Zahirabad) and Banoth Mohan Lal (Mahbubabad). The party has given tickets to about three industrialists - Rayapati Sambasiva Rao (Narasaraopet), Galla Jayadev (Guntur) and Nama Nageswara Rao (Khammam).

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was 'hand-in-gloves' with the Congress during the formation of Telangana. Three months down the line while the former struggles in its old fortress, the latter is trying to put up a strong fight. As said earlier, the saffronists are expecting that the Modi wave will help it do well even in those states where it was never a strong player in the past. The tie-up with former ally - the TDP has further helped their cause. In fact, the importance of this alliance for the NDA as a whole can be deduced from the fact that the national party even gave up some of its assembly seats just to please the sulking Naidu. The nominees include party president Dr. K Haribabu (Vishakapatnam), former Union Minister Purandeshwari (Rajmpeta) who quit the Congress recently, Gokaraju Ganga Raju (Narsaraopur) and Karumanchi Jayaram (Tirupati).

Power star Pawan Kalyan too has pledged his support to the NDA in the run up to the 2014 General Polls in spite of the fact that his brother Chiranjeevi is with the Congress. It was earlier believed that he was to launch a political party to fight for the unity of the state. Meanwhile, he has been a star campaigner for the NDA alliance in Andhra as well as neighboring Karnataka.

(3) Y S R Congress Party (YSRCP): After the Congress refused to anoint him as the CM of Andhra Pradesh, Jagan Mohan Reddy left the grand old party to form the YSRCP to en cash on the emotions of the people who were saddened by the tragic death of his extremely popular father. Of course, the Congress tried its best to nip the newly formed outfit in the bud. While the junior Reddy was put behind the bars for 16 months, he fought back, winning by-election after by-election at the expense of Congress. The Union government's decision to split Andhra helped him further expand his party's reach in newer areas. Many were expecting the Jagan juggernaut to sweep the state, especially after a host of leaders from the INC joined him. However, the TDP-BJP pre-poll alliance has to some extent, stemmed the YSRCP wave in the coast. The results of the recently concluded local polls came in as a shocker for the party. Meanwhile, the YSRCP's candidates for Lok Sabha 2014 include Jagan's mother Y S Vijayamma (Vishakapatnam), his cousin Y S Avinash Reddy (Kadappa), industrialist Ayodhya Ramireddy (Narsaraopur) and former bureaucrat Varaprasad Rao Velagapalli (Tirupati).

(4) Jai Samaikyandhra Party (JSP): After being in power for over three years, Kiran Kumar Reddy - the last CM of a united Andhra left the Congress to form the JSP. However, the question is was it too late. I mean, Reddy continued to be in power even days before the Parliament went ahead with the division of the state. As such, many people still view the former CM to be one of the persons who did not do much to prevent the bifurcation. Moreover, many of his former cabinet colleagues who had assured Kiran of their support have now gone back on their word. Apart from him, the JSP lacks any face who can help them win any votes.

PAST PERFORMANCES

Finding the exact results for Seemandhra and Rayalseema, similar to the exercise I did for Telangana (Link) is difficult and time consuming. However, I will give a broad sense of how the regions of coastal Andhra and Rayalseema voted over the last five General Elections. In 1996, the TDP and the Congress shared the spoils almost equally in this part of the state. Two years later though, the grand old party held the upper hand. In the following year, it was Naidu who did did well. Over the last two elections, it has been the Congress led by the late CM Y S Rajashekar Reddy which propelled the UPA at the Centre.

MY PREDICTIONS

The TDP-BJP alliance seems to have take been able to take some steam off Jagan's campaign which was going pretty strong till the end of March. I believe that the coalition in a four cornered contest will help the NDA gain an edge over the others. In spite of this, YSR Congress will still give it a tough fought. The Congress, I think will be wiped out whereas the Jai Samaikyandhra Party (JSP) will also end up with a big zero.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	NDA (TDP + BJP)	12-16
2	YSR Congress	10-14
3	Congress	0-1
4	Jai Samaikyandhra Party (JSP)	0

WATCH OUT

(1) The 2014 state elections: Though Andhra will go to the polls as a single entity, the new state of Telangana will be carved out on 2^nd June. Now that the split is a reality, the question will be as to who will become the first Chief Minister of Seemandhra post the division. With anger simmering against the Congress, the race is clearly between Jagan Mohan Reddy and Chandrababu Naidu. While the YSRCP chief has momentum on his side, following the sting of victories in several by-elections, the TDP helped its cause by allying with the BJP.

(2) Congress - a sinking ship: The excellent show in Andhra Pradesh was responsible for the formation of two Congress led UPA regimes in 2004 and 2009. However, post the death of YSR, the revolt of his son Jagan and the furor over the creation of Telangana is set to wipe out the party in this part of the country. The INC has just one leader here - film star Chiranjeevi but with emotions running high, it is unlikely that he will have any impact on the polls. Will the grand old party make a comeback? How many years will it take for the Congress to win back the confidence of the people? Most importantly, who will lead the INC in Andhra?

(3) Naidu makes a comeback? The TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu was once the poster boy in the southern state, credited for the rise of capital Hyderabad as one of the major IT destinations in the country. However, after two successive victories, the TDP was wiped off in 2004 state and Lok Sabha polls which also marked the rise of the Y S Rajashekar Reddy. Naidu tried to put the blame on the BJP as he broke off from the NDA. However, the trend continued in 2009 when, in spite of the grand alliance, Naidu was routed, yet again. Even in the run up to 2014, it was believed that Reddy's son Jagan was becoming the most prominent leader of the Seemandhra region. However, the alliance with the BJP may help Naidu climb the ladder and regain his lost political status.

(4) Which way will Jagan go? All Opinion Polls are predicting the YSRCP to win in excess of 10 seats. Now that makes Jagan Mohan one of the most sought after political ally post May 16 in case both the major formations fall short of majority. In fact, even the YSRCP chief has kept all his options open. Earlier, he had claimed that he did not have any problems in joining hands with the NDA led by Modi. Also, he may even forget the treatment meted out to him by Congress post the death of his father and support the UPA. Moreover, supporting the Third Front will be much more easy, though the possibilities of such a coalition ruling the country is almost negligible.

(5) The future of Kiran Kumar Reddy and the JSP: It is difficult to predict as to who will finish as the biggest party in Andhra - the TDP-BJP combine or the YSRCP but there is unanimous agreement on the fact that the JSP is not a challenger at all. In fact, many feel that in spite of resigning from the Congress and floating a new outfit, Reddy is still believed by many to be ineffective in adverting the division of the state. If the former CM does as badly as expected, it will be interesting to see what his next move will be. Will he join either YSRCP or the TDP? May be, he may walk back into the Congress.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

TAMIL NADU & LOK SABHA 2014

CAN JAYA SINK THE DMK'S SUN?

From Bengal, we move to another state which is ruled by a lady politician - the southern state of Tamil Nadu. In 2011 state elections, the AIADMK led alliance swept the state, winning a staggering 201 of the 234 seats. While Amma's outfit walked away with 150 seats, her ally the DMDK (Link) finished as the second largest party as it ending with an impressive tally of 29 seats. The DMK was decimated. In fact when Vijaykanth decided against joining the Jaya government, he became the Leader of Opposition, relegating Karuna's party to the third spot. Three years down the line, things have changed to some extent. The AIADMK supremo is nurturing Prime Ministerial ambitions, hopeful that a tally of say about 30 odd seats will make the 'natural' leader of a Third Front. The DMK is no more a constituent of the UPA, having broken off from the INC led coalition following differences over the Lankan Tamil issue. The BJP on the other hand has stitched together a 'Half Rainbow' alliance in the state (Link) with several smaller Dravidian parties. The Congress though is left in the lurch; without any strong allies on its side, it seems to be headed towards a rout.

ISSUES

(1) Performance test of the Jaya government: It has been three years since the AIADMK registered a landslide victory in the state elections, relegating the DMK to the third spot. Having completed more than half of her tenure, the Tamil Nadu CM's performance will be under the scanner. The 'Amma Eateries' serving highly subsidized food has been a big hit across the state, run by women's self help groups. Other welfare measures include the 'Amma Marundagam ' (Medical Stores) and free laptops to students studying in standard XII and Polytechnic colleges. The law and order situation has improved as compared to that under the previous Karunanidhi regime. On the ground, the AIADMK is said to be the strongest political party, ahead of the others, especially with the DMK in disarray and the Congress fighting the polls alone.

(2) Anti-incumbency against the UPA: With corruption becoming a major issue across the nation, the Congress is clearly on the back foot. One of the biggest scams in the second tenure of the Congress led coalition government has been the 2G scam, perhaps running into thousands of crores. This is important because the prime accused in this fiasco has been the former Telecom Minister A Raja of the DMK. In fact, one of the beneficiary of this allegedly has been Karuna's daughter and Rajya Sabha MP Kanimozhi. Thus while the DMK did pull out of the UPA late last year, the stigma of 'corruption' has not been washed away, at least not yet. Even the performance of the last DMK regime was much below par. This is certainly going to further help the AIADMK and the NDA win votes.

(3) Lankan Tamil Issue: In the last days of the 2009 Lankan civil war as the island nation's army decimated the LTTE, it is alleged that severe atrocities were committed by men in uniform against the Tamils. Videos from various organizations around the world have given 'questionable' evidence of armymen killing the minorities in cold blood including Prabhakaran's young son and LTTE loyalist Isapriya. With the US planning to move a resolution against the Sri Lankan government in the UN, the DMK pulled out of the UPA alleging that the Congress was not ready to accept its suggestions. The whole issue has snowballed into a major poll issue in the state with both the Dravidian parties accusing the Centre of not doing anything to protect the Tamils in Jaffna. Of course, we also need to take into account that we cannot displease our southern neighbor which is also a strategic partner.

Another issue, perhaps linked to this is the drama over the release of the people convicted in the assassination of former PM Rajiv Gandhi. With the Supreme Court commuting the death sentence of three of the convicts to life, the Jaya government tried to secure brownie points by announcing that it would release all the seven people associated with the case. This was met with stiff opposition from the Congress who called this a betrayal. The SC later intervened and has stayed the move.

CONTENDERS

(1) All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK): After that spectacular victory in the last state polls, AIADMK supremo is buoyed and has started voicing her national ambitions as the calls for a Third Front are growing louder. This is reflected in the party manifesto too. However, the wily politician that she is, she 'forced' the Left in breaking ties with her outfit, aware that each seat in her kitty would make her more powerful nationally. The numerous welfare schemes that her government has launched, the anti-incumbency against the UPA and the dissidence within the DMK are working to Amma's advantage. In fact, the AIADMK may give tough competition to the likes of the TMC and the Left to emerge as the third largest player in the Parliament. The AIADMK's candidates include T G Venkatesh Babu (Chennai North), Dr J Jayavardhan (Chennai South), S R Vijayakumar (Chennai Central), P Senguttuvan (Vellore), V Panneerselvam (Salem), P Kumar (Trichy), R Gopalakrishnan (Madurai) and D John Thangam (Kannyakumari).

(2) Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA): Like so many constituents of the UPA, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) too is struggling, to say the least. Apart from the fact that it finished third in the state assembly, even behind Vijayakanth's DMDK, the power struggle within the Dravidian outfit's first family has led many to believe that the DMK would struggle to even cross the two digit mark. The stigma of the multi-crore 2G scam seem to have stuck to the party even after it left the UPA. With Karunanidhi expelling southern strong man Alagiri, the polls are a big test of the leadership for the 'crown prince' Stalin. Aware that the party's tally is set go southwards, the party has tied up with several smaller players like the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), the Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK), the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and the Puthiya Tamizhagam (PT) to consolidate anti-AIADMK votes. The regional player's candidates include Stalin loyalist R Girirajan (Chennai North), T K S Elangovan (Chennai South), A K S Vijayan (Nagapattinam), V Velusamy (Madurai) and former Union Ministers - S. Gandhi Selvan (Namakkal), T R Baalu (Thanjavur) and 2G tainted A Raja (Nilgiris).

(3) Congress: The grand old party is in a fix in the southern most state. Without any strong Dravidian ally on its side, the INC seems to be headed towards doomsday. The fact that several of its key leaders including Finance Minister P Chidambaram and Shipping Minister G K Vasan have refused to contest in 2014 is an indication of the big rout staring in the face of the party. Adding to its woes is the Union government's refusal to back a 'strong' US led resolution against Sri Lanka in the United Nations implicating it of genocide against the country's Tamil population during the last days of the Civil War in 2009. Some of the party's candidates here include Finance Minister's son Karti Chidamabaram (Sivaganga) and veteran leader Mani Shankar Aiyar (Mayiladuturai).

(4) National Democratic Alliance (NDA): Aware that the saffron outfit does not have any significance presence in Tamil country, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) cobbled together the 'Half Rainbow' alliance by bringing together several smaller Dravidian parties to give it a fighting chance, especially after the talks with Jaya failed to materialize. Leading the NDA here is film star Vijayakant of the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) which emerged as the second largest party in the assembly and polled 10 percent of the votes in the 2009 Lok Sabha. Besides, Ramadoss of the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and firebrand leader Vaiko of Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) too have pledged their support to Modi. Other smaller players in this coalition are the Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi (KMDK) which has some influence in the Kongu region and the Indiya Jananayaka Katchi (IJK). The BJP's PM nominee also met superstar Rajnikanth during his visit to Chennai.

PAST PERFORMANCE

In 1996, G K Moopanar split from the Congress over its decision to ally with the AIADMK and formed the Tamil Maanila Congres (Moopanar) - TMC(M). He joined hands with the DMK and the CPI(M) and the alliance - the United Front won all the 39 seats in the state. Two years down the line though, the results were dramatically different. The AIADMK, the PMK, the MDMK and Subramaniam Swamy's Janata Party joined the BJP-led NDA and won 30 seats. The DMK and the TMC(M) finished with a tally of 9. Elections were scheduled a year later as Jaya pulled the plug on the Vajpayee government during the crucial trust vote. The saffron camp now allied with the DMK, Ramados and Vaiko. The new look NDA finished as the largest coalition with 25 seats while Jaya and the Congress took 12 and 2 seats each. In 2004, Jaya was with the BJP whereas the DMK was now in the UPA along with the PMK and MDMK. This was one of the blunders that cost Vajpayee a second consecutive term. The results were a white wash in favor of the UPA. In the last General polls, the UPA continued to dominate with 27 seats whereas the AIADMK combine bagged 12 seats.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (AIADMK)	9	-	10	18	-
Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (DMK)	18	16	12	5	17
Congress	6	6	3	1	9
Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (MDMK)	1	4	4	3	-
Paattali Makkal Katchi (PMK)	-	5	5	4	-
Others	3	4	2	6	22

MY PREDICTIONS

The AIADMK is all set to cross the 20 seat mark and may even end up as the third largest party in the Parliament. Its rally will be dented to some extent by the DMK which is making a come back of sorts. The NDA will pick up a few seats whereas the Congress and others may, at max win up to 2 seats.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	All India Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (AIADMK)	21-25
2	Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (DMK+)	9-13
3	National Democratic Alliance (NDA)	3-6
4	Others (Congress/Left)	0-2

WATCH OUT

(1) Jaya - Potential PM candidate: Should the AIADMK win over 30 seats and there is a chance for a Federal Front to come to power, the party chief will be the strongest contender to become the PM of the nation. Even in the run up to the polls, Amma has on several occasions has given indications that she nurses national ambitions. The shrewd politician that she is, she even walked out of an alliance with the Left parties to maximize her individual tally. Even in case the Third Front may not come to power, Jaya with 30 odd MPs will be in a solid position for some hard bargaining with either the NDA or the UPA.

(2) The split in the DMK and the future of Alagiri: How much of an impact will the suspension of Alagiri have on the prospects of the DMK, especially in the southern districts where Karuna's estranged son has some kind of a clout. The war of succession that began as early as 1996 when Vaiko was shown the door seem to have been settled finally. With his last rival being shunted out and the Marans cut to size, the path is clear for the former Deputy CM Stalin to lead the party in the post Karuna era. Meanwhile, his elder sibling's next move will be very interesting. Though joining the AIADMK can be ruled out, he may join some other party like the BJP or Vaiko's MDMK or even float a new party. One more possibility is that in case the DMK is wiped out, Karuna may even mend fences with Alagiri to strengthen the party.

(3) Performances of the smaller party: In 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the DMDK polled 10 percent of the total votes though it did not pick any seats. In the next state legislative assembly elections, the party ended up as the second largest party. The point I wish to make is that we need to see how the performance of these smaller parties would be and if the coalition stitched together by the BJP would last post elections. I mean, the DMDK, the MDMK and the PMK and the BJP alliance may end up giving a tough fight to the two major Dravidian parties a tough fight. A wild idea, I know but still a possibility.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

BENGAL & LOK SABHA 2014

CAN DIDI HOLD ON OR WILL THE LEFT RECLAIM ITS LOST FORTRESS?

With 42 parliamentary seats, Bengal is the third most important state as far as the General Elections are concerned. After having stormed the Left bastion, CM Mamata Bannerjee will be hoping to crush the Communists yet again although the TMC is fighting the polls alone. After the 2010 state polls where she humiliated the comrades, the Trinamool chief is indeed confident of a good showing. For the Left parties, it is a battle for survival. Reports from their strongholds in Kerala and here indicate that the Communists might be headed towards their worst figures in recent times. The Congress too is under pressure; besides the break-up with the TMC, its face in the state - Pranab Mukherjee has shifted to Rashtrapati Bhavan. The saffron outfit is dependent on Modi wave and the popularity of its candidates to cause a few upsets.

ISSUES

(1) The performance of the Mamata regime: Didi gave a clarion call for 'Poriborton' to overthrow the Left Front in Bengal. Three years down the line though, the state still continues to be plagued by the problems it faced under the Communists. Probably the only thing that has changed is that Communist goons who used to terrorize villagers have been replaced by men loyal to Mamata. Meanwhile, unemployment is high, no dissent is tolerated and there has been a rise in crimes against women. However, to her credit, the Bengal CM has been able to curtail Maoist related violence. Moreover, her rather clean public image, a rarity at least amongst regional leaders has won her the support of anti-corruption crusader Anna Hazare. While the TMC is hopeful that the development under Bannerjee government will see it through, the opposition parties are banking on anti-incumbency.

(2) Anti-incumbency against the UPA: Luckily for the TMC, the split with the Congress has saved it from having to defend the numerous failures of the INC led coalition in its second term. In the last five years, the Central government has been rocked by myriad scams like 2G, Railgate, Choppergate, Coalgate and so on. High inflation and Price rise - the issue over which the TMC severed its ties with the Congress is likely to also affect the INC's prospects. Even on the economic front, the Manmohan regime has failed to even live up to the standards it had set in its first innings. The anti-incumbency is likely to dampen Congress' chances here too.

(3) Saradha Chit Fund Scam: While anti-incumbency may be the worry for the Congress, the Saradha Chit Fund is giving head ache to Mamata and the TMC. It is believed that 17 lakh people, mainly from Bengal had lost their life-long savings in the fund whose CEO was Kunal Ghosh - former TMC MP in the Rajya Sabha who is presently behind the bars. Though he has been suspended from the party, the issue continues to be a major embarrassment for the ruling party.

(4) Secularism and Bangladeshi Migrants: The elevation of Narendra Modi to the post of BJP's official PM nominee has made 'secularism' an important issue this elections. The TMC, the Congress and the Left are all eyeing the 25 percent minority votes in the state which could be a game changer in many parliamentary seats. The Gujarat CM kicked up a storm in the state when he said that he will send back all 'illegal' Bangladeshi migrants while specifying that India is the natural home of all 'displaced' Hindus from across the border. Hitting back, the Bengal CM has dared him to do so. The war of words between the two sides has only escalated and may influence the way voters cast their votes.

CONTENDERS

(1) Trinamool Congress (TMC): Mamata Bannerjee received a big boost when Anna Hazare declared her to be the best choice to the post of the country's next Prime Minister. Buoyed by this, the TMC chief decided to go national and scheduled political rallies across the nation. However, the bon homie did not last long as Hazare skipped the Delhi rally following low attendance. Meanwhile, if reports are to be believed then the Trinamool is all set to be the third largest party in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, behind the Congress and the BJP. The incumbent CM, like Navin Patnaik in Odisha has a big choice to make once the results are out and if the electorate gives a fractured mandate. In the past, she has done business with both the two big coalitions. Her big fight with Modi in recent days has been dubbed by many as a move to retain the support of the Muslims. She could also be a choice for the PM's post if the Third Front (Link) does come to power sans the support of the Left. The TMC's list of candidates includes former footballers - Baichung Bhutia (Darjeeling) and Prasun Bannerjee (Howrah), film stars - Moon Moon Sen (Bankura), Dev (Ghatal), Satabdi Roy (Birbhum) and Tapas Pal (Krishnanagar), singer Indranil Sen (Berhampur), theatre personality Arpita Ghosh (Balurghat) and Mamata's 26 year old nephew and perhaps her political successor  Abhisekh Bannerjee (Diamond District).

(2) Left Front: While on one hand, the TMC seems to be strong, the Left is expected to struggle to even match its tally of 2009. Presently, the four Marxists parties who are a part of this alliance include the Communist Party of India - Marxist (CPI-M), the Communist Party of India (CPI), the All India Forward Block (AIFB) and the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP). Ever since losing power in 2010, the position of the Communist parties in Bengal has weakened tremendously. Moreover, to prevent the Left parties from taking the anti-UPA, anti-NDA stand, Didi has been extremely vocal in her criticism of both the Congress and the BJP. The comrades in fact need a miracle. For a Third Front government including the Left, they have to win at least 30 seats. For this to happen, Bengal holds the key. At present though, that seems to be an impossible task. In what seems to be an attempted image make over, the Reds have fielded as many as 26 new faces and has dropped 5 of its incumbent MPs.

(3) Congress: Like in Tamil Nadu, while the grand old party has presence here, the problem is with the fact that it does not have a pre-poll alliance with any strong regional player. Since it does not have a grass root level organization in Bengal that can help it win seats, the INC's situation is precarious. Moreover, after its most prominent face in the eastern state - Pranab Da was made the President of the country, the Congress does not have any popular face who can win it votes. To add to their woes, there is a strong anti-incumbency against the UPA II. Pranab's son Abhijeet Mukherjee who narrowly won a by-election from his father's constituency of Jangipur has been renominated. Union minister Adhir Ranjan Chaudhary has been given a ticket from Behrampur.

(4) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): The saffron outfit was hopeful that Modi magic will help it win support in those parts of the country, say like the north-east, the south and the east where it lacked any substantial base. Being a fringe player in Bengal for long, the party seems to have taken a leaf out of the ruling TMC's book and has fielded some famous personalities to help it get that extra edge, just to reinforce the Modi wave. These include Bollywood music composer Bappi Lahiri (Sreerampur), singer Babul Supriyo (Asansol), actor George Baker (Howrah) as well as magician P C Sarkar Jr. (Barasat). Journalist turned politician Chandan Mitra has been fielded from Hooghly. Besides, the Gorkha Janmukthi Morcha (GJM) which is fighting for a separate state of Gorkhaland to be carved out of northern Bengal has pledged its support to the BJP candidate S S Ahuwalia.

PAST PERFORMANCE

In the four Lok Sabha polls fought between 1996 and 2004 when the Left Front was still in power in Kolkata, the Marxists were the single largest block in Bengal. While it performance dipped in 1999, it made a strong comeback, winning 35 seats in 2004 when the Communists emerged as a strong political player on the national stage. The Congress was dealt a severe blow when Mamata formed the TMC and emerged as the only rival to the comrades in the late nineties. However, in 2004 she was nearly wiped off even as the Congress won 6 seats. Things changed in 2009 when the TMC and the Congress joined hands to take on the ruling Left regime which was facing the heat post the fiasco in Nandigram. The UPA finished with a superb tally of 25, reducing the Reds to 15.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Trinamool Congress (TMC)	19	1	8	7	-
Left Front	15	35	29	33	33
Congress	6	6	3	1	9
Others	2	-	2	1	-

MY PREDICTIONS

Mamata's TMC is all set to walk away with at least half of the 42 seats in the fray from here. The Left will struggle to retain its earlier tally of 1 whereas the Congress will be affected by the break up with the TMC. The BJP could win at max 3 seats.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Trinamool Congress (TMC)	20-23
2	Left Front	12-15
3	Congress	2-5
4	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	0-3
5	Others	0-2

WATCH OUT

(1) Which front will the TMC join? If the Trinamool can finish with a tally of over 20 seats, it could well be the third largest party behind the two national outfits. This will give it tremendous bargaining power if the country gives a fractured mandate. It is well difficult to speculate which way Didi will go. Though there has been a rather ugly war of words between the TMC and the BJP in the last two weeks, a special economic package could be good enough for the Bengal CM to support a Modi led NDA. Thr problem though is the Muslim vote which is crucial for success in the state. Also, since she has also been a part of the UPA earlier, she can choose to join the coalition headed by the Congress. The bitter experiences of the past could be a deterrent. And, she could be the PM nominee if the Federal Front can somehow manage to form the next government, provided the Left is pushed out of the picture.

(2) The future of the Left: With the UDF considered to be strong in Kerala and the Mamata juggernaut rolling in Bengal, the Left Front seems to be on the back foot in the two major states where it has substantial presence. Even the idea of the Third Front which the Communists has spoken about time and again has failed to take off with regional leaders failing to come together to present a strong alternative to the Congress and the BJP. If the Opinion polls are to be believed then the comrades will find it difficult to even cross the 30 seat mark. in that situation, they will not be a major force to reckon with in national politics. In fact, the regional players may even prefer to deal with Mamata if she can cross the 20 mark and if the Communists end up with a tally of less than 30.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

ODISHA & LOK SABHA 2014

WILL NAVIN BABU SAVE HIS TURF?

The battle for Odisha is one of the big talking points of this elections considering the fact that the eastern state will go to the polls later this year. All eyes are on the incumbent CM Navin Patnaik and many are wondering if he will be able to continue with his 14 year long rule considering that he is fighting both the BJP and the Congress. Having been a part of the BJP-led NDA, the BJD supremo broke off all ties with the saffron camp in 2008, accusing the latter of having a hand in the communal clashes in Kandhamal. The BJP was hopeful that regional player would fall short of majority in the legislative assembly on its own and would have to join hands with it. However, the regional outfit surprised everyone as it won two-thirds majority on its own. This time around though, there are speculations that anti-incumbency and the hype over the candidature of Narendra Modi will help benefit the BJP. In this scenario, Patnaik may be forced to rethink his strategy and may even come back to the NDA to help his prospects in the state. Also, in case the UPA manages to get a third straight mandate, he may extend external support to his old foe which he has made more or less irrelevant in the state. And finally, though he has not officially joined hands with the Third Front, he is considered by many to be one of the consensus candidates to the post of the Prime Minister, that is of course if the BJD can win 15 or more seats.

ISSUES

(1) The performance of the Patnaik regime: Having been in power since March 2000, the performance of Navin Patnaik as the CM of Odisha over the last 14 years is going to b the most important poll issue this elections. Over the years, he has built up his image as a pro-development, anti-corrupt and a secular leader. In his current term, the evacuation attempt undertaken by his government during the 2013 Phylin cyclone (Link) was much appreciated. At the same time, his name has figured in the multi-crore coal block allocation scam and it was speculated that the CBI was set to question him over a letter he had written to the Centre asking them to re-exam the request made by Hindalco. Besides, combating anti-incumbency of nearly three terms may be a challenge especially in the Union Elections where unlike in the state, the national parties are still strong.

(2) Patnaik versus Modi: Now it is clear that the Odisha CM is the most popular leader in the state. Besides the reason for him to be at the helm of affairs for so is the lack of credible leaders either in the Congress or in the BJP. However, the biggest threat to the BJD chief is his counterpart from Gujarat. Like in many parts of the country, the Modi wave is pretty strong in some pockets in the state and it is here that the saffron outfit is hoping to do well in the Lok Sabha polls. Modi though has been rather soft on Patnaik, probably indicating a return of the BJD to the NDA soon.

CONTENDERS

(1) Biju Janata Dal (BJD): There is no doubt as to which party will finish at the pole position both in the Lok Sabha as well as the legislative assembly as far as Odisha is concerned. However, the question is whether the party will be able to hold on to its impressive tally of 2009, given the fact that the BJP under Modi may have finally come out of Patnaik’s shadow. The last term had its own share of difficulties for Navin Patnaik. He survived an attempted coup by his long-time mentor Pyari Mohan Mohapatra and battled allegations of corruption in allocation of coal blocks. Also, his absence at the New Delhi conference in February this year where the ‘Third Front’ (Link) was ‘formalized’ was interpreted by some as a move to send feelers to the NDA. Meanwhile the party’s candidates include former captain of the Indian Hockey Team Dilip Tirkey (Sundergarh), Odiya film star Siddhant Mohapatra (Barhampur) and has retained at least 7 of its 14 incumbents including Baijayant Panda (Kendrapara), Pinaki Misra (Puri) and Prasanna Kumar Patasani (Bhubaneshwar).

(2) Congress: In the 11 years that the BJD and the BJP fought together, the INC was nearly decimated in the state. However, following the split in the NDA in 2008, the grand old party did rather well, finishing with its highest tally in the last four polls. It was also able to end up as a runner-ups to the BJD in the state elections of 2009. However, the situation in 2014 is not in the favor of the Congress. Navin continues to be strong; the BJP is on the up surge whereas the INC is facing a strong anti-incumbency wave. Adding to it is the deep rooted factionalism in the state leadership. Prominent party candidates for the General polls include incumbents Hemananda Biswal (Sundergarh), Amarnath Pradhan (Sambhalpur), Pradip Majhi (Nabarangapur) and Bhakta Charan Das (Kalanidhi). Besides, Union Minister of State and MP from Balasore - Srikant Jena too has been retained in spite of him not being keen to fight elections according to some reports.

(3) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): The saffronists did pretty well in the eastern state while it fought in coalition with the BJD. In 2009 though, the BJP was expected to break the ruling party's dominance in the state. However, what followed next was a disaster with the party finishing on a duck. Even in the state assembly, its tally was a paltry figure of 6. Anyway, many are believing that the party will do what it failed to do last time. If the saffron outfit can win say about 5 seats, it will emerge as the biggest threat to Navin's bid for a successive fourth term. The BJP held talks with several smaller regional parties to boost its chances but the alliances failed to materialize since it wanted the leaders of many of these to fight under its election symbol. In fact, if the NDA comes to power and does well in Odisha, you can expect the party to put up a good campaign against the BJD. Amongst the BJP's nominees are Pruthwiraj Harichandan (Bhubaneswar), Sameer Dey (Cuttack), Sukanta Panigrahi (Kandhamal), Ashok Sahu (Puri) and Sarat Dash (Bhadrak).

Others: There are host of new regional parties that have merged on the political landscape in Odisha who have thrown their hat in the ring. Former leader of the BJD in the Rajya Sabha and Navin's political mentor Pyari Mohan Mohapatre launched the Odisha Jana Morcha (OJM) after he was was expelled from the party for allegedly attempting a coup against the incumbent CM while he was on a foreign visit last year. While there were reports that the BJP was keen to join hands with him, the party cadre were strictly against it as they saw Mohapatra as the man behind the BJD-BJP split in 2008. The OJM was dealt a severe blow in March when two of its top leaders - Vice President Mihir Mohanty and General Secretary Bhagirathi Kar went back to the BJD.

Two former Congressmen Kharavel Swain of the Utkal Bharat (UB) and Soumya Ranjan Patnaik of the Ama Odisha (AO) have decided to join hands and fight the two upcoming elections under a common electoral symbol - the Earthen pot. Earlier, both these parties were expected to be a part of the NDA. Since the saffron outfit insisted on a merge prior to the polls, the talks seem to have failed. Similarly, the Samata Kranti Dal (SKD) launched by former BJD MP Braja Kishor Tripathy too decided to go alone after seat sharing arrangements with the saffron camp failed to materialize. The Kejriwal led Aam Admi Party (AAP) too is making its debut here. However, it was caught in a controversy after it fielded Narendra Mohanty from Kandhamal who has several criminal cases against him. Though his candidature was later withdrawn, the damage seems to have been done already.

PAST PERFORMANCE

In 1996, the INC was the dominant player here with an amazing tally of 16 out of 21 seats. By the next elections held two years later, the BJD-BJP swept the state, turning the tables on the Congress. In the following year, the partners in the NDA recorded their best performance in Odisha, winning 19 out of the 21 parliamentary seats from here. In 2004 too, the alliance did well even as the BJP dropped two seats. Last time, after the split in the BJP-BJD partnership, the INC tripled its tally to finish with 6 seats. Patnaik's outfit recorded its best performance ever, bagging 14 seats. The saffron party on the other hand failed to even open its account.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Biju Janata Dal (BJD)	14	11	10	9	4
Congress	6	2	2	5	16
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	-	7	9	7	-
Others	1	1	-	-	-

MY PREDICTIONS

The BJD will continue to be the single largest party in the state even though it may drop a few seats. However, the party to watch out for this elections in Odisha is the BJP. The saffron outfit, in my opinion will be the surprise factor. The 2014 Lok Sabha may be the chance when the party will break big. Of course, there were similar speculations in 2009 too. However, this time around, the situation seems to be drastically different. The Congress on the other hand, will drop seats for sure.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Biju Janata Dal (BJD)	10-14
2	Congress	2-4
3	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	3-6
4	Others	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) Which way will Patnaik go? This is one of the biggest debates this election season. The options in front of Patnaik are many. In case the BJP does well, say it wins 4 or 5 seats in Odisha and if the NDA manages to form the next government in New Delhi, you can expect him to join hands with the saffron outfit. Similarly, if the UPA wins a third straight term, Patnaik might give it outside support. Also, he may well be an important constituent of the Third Front if the regional parties can stitch together an alliance to keep the national parties out of power. And the cunning politician that he is, he may well maintain distance from all three major coalitions if he can win the 2014 state elections on his own.

(2) Can the BJP break big? The 2014 Lok Sabha elections could be the big break that the saffron party needs in Odisha to enhance its electoral prospects. Following a rather ugly divorce with the BJD after a honeymoon spanning nearly 11 years, the saffronists got a rude shock as they drew a blank first in 2009 General polls and then dropped 26 seats to finish with a paltry figure of 6 in the last state elections. However, many believe that the Modi wave may give it the fillip it needs here. While it may still not be able to stall the Patnaik jaggernaut, it is set to relegate the Congress to the third position. Probably, the best case scenario for the outfit will be if the incumbent CM falls short of a simple majority, thereby needing the help of the BJP to form the next government. Of course, support to the Modi led central government in return will be a pre-requisite for this.

(3) The fate of smaller parties: While the BJD has been the dominant player in the state elections for nearly 15 years, it will be interesting to see how the other smaller players will perform. These include Pyari Mohan Mohapatra's Odisha Jana Morcha, Swain's Utkal Bharat, Tripathy's Samata Kranti Dal and Soumya Patnaik's Ama Odisha. Though they may not win any seat in the Parliament, the vote share they get will help us get an idea of their performance in the state elections.

Other posts in this series:

(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(24) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(26) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)