RIOTS IN UP: ADVANTAGE BJP?

AFTER THE BIHAR SET BACK, CAN THE BJP MAKE A COMEBACK

Courtesy: In.Com

The euphoria over PM Narendra Modi's victory came crashing down after the saffron outfit was beaten 4-6 by the 'Mahaghatbandan' or the Grand Alliance comprising of the RJD, the JD-U and the Congress in Bihar. In spite of sweeping the state in the last Lok Sabha polls, the BJP was humbled in the by-polls with the entire opposition in the state joining hands to successfully stall the Modi juggernaut. With the state going to elections next year, the mega coalition does hold the edge. In Karnataka, where too the party had far exceeded all expectations by winning 17 parliamentary seats in May earlier this year, the saffronists were embarrassed by the INC in its stronghold of Bellary. Besides, the loss of one seat to the Congress in MP also was unexpected. Of course, I will write a more elaborate article on the by-poll results after September 13 when the outcome of the second round of by-elections will be declared.

One of the highlights of the 2014 General Elections was BJP's emphatic win in the mega state of Uttar Pradesh. Having been appointed as the in-charge of UP, former Gujarat Home Minister and Modi's Man Friday Amit Shah got down to task, working out the caste equations, stitching together agreement with smaller parties and organizations and selecting winnable candidates besides giving communal speeches. While the party did extremely well in all the parts of the country, its performance in UP was spectacular; the 71 seats that the BJP won here catapulted it past the 272 mark on its own. Buoyed by the party's fabulous showing in the Lok Sabha 2014 pols, the BJP gone on the offensive, hitting out at the Akhilesh Yadav led government for the deteriorating law and order situation in the state. Amit Shah, now elevated to the position of the BJP president (Link) has his eyes set on the 2017 state assembly polls where the saffronists are hoping to form the next regime in Lucknow after a span of 12 years. The rise in communal tensions following last year's Muzzaffarnagar riots (Link) has only helped their cause. Remember, when the clashes had first broken out, BJP MLAs - Sangeet Som, Suresh Rana and Bharatendu Singh were accused of stoking communal flares. The EC had even rapped Shah for his inflammatory speech at a rally in western UP. A sharp rise in incidents of communal riots over the past few months has put a question mark on the 'secular' credentials of the NDA regime. What has shocked many is the fact that Yogi Adityanath has been put in charge of the by-polls for the 11 assembly segments, scheduled next month. The controversial Gorakhpur MP had earlier in a video, called on the people from the majority community to avenge 'Love Jihad'. With four of these constituencies - Saharanpur Nagar, Bijnor, Thakurwada and Noida situated in Western UP, it remains to be seen if the BJP's attempt at polarization can help it do well.

The other constituencies in UP that will go the by-polls on 13^th September include Sirathu, Balha and Rohaniya in Purvanchal, Hamirpur and Charkhari in Bundelkhand as well as Nighasen and Lucknow - East in Awadh. All the 11 seats fell vacant since the incumbent BJP MLAs were elected to the Lower House of the Parliament. The Samajwadi Party (SP) that swept the polls in 2012 assembly polls is clearly on the back foot. The complete failure of the Akhilesh administration in keeping the law and order situation under control over the last two years has led to an anti-incumbency wave that led to the rout of the Mulayum Singh led outfit in the General Polls. Ahead of the by-polls, the SP chief who has based most of their policies on 'minority appeasement' under the garb of 'Secularism' seems to have become desperate. Nearly three years after he was shown the door, the Yadav strongman was seen sharing the stage with his friend turned foe Amar Singh. This was seen as a move to cut the party's Muslim face Azam Khan to size. In fact, he was even ready to join hands with his bête noire BSP leader Mayawati if Lalu Prasad was ready to mediate terms between the two political rivals. However, the latter turned down the offer since her party never contests by-polls. On the other hand, with the fight expected to be primarily between the BJP and the SP, the Congress is not expected to be a serious contender. Meanwhile, with Mulayum retaining the Azamgarh parliamentary seat, the elections to the seat he vacated - Mainpuri will also be held together with the state by-polls. Retaining his home turf will be a matter of prestige for the former wrestler whereas the BJP would want to pack a powerful punch by causing an upset.

Nine constituencies in PM Narendra Modi's home state of Gujarat will also go to by-elections in the next two weeks. These include Tankara, Khambhalia, Mangrol, Talaja (Saurashtra), Matar, Limkheda, Maninagar, Anand (Central Gujarat) and Deesa (North Gujarat). Having being sworn in as the Chief Minister of the state three months ago, the elections will be a test for Anandiben Patel too. It remains to be seen if she can win the kind of trust that her illustrious predecessor enjoyed amongst the people of the state. The saffron outfit seems to be confident and has put up as many as eight fresh faces. Like in UP, the elections to Vadodara parliamentary seat which was won by Modi will be also be conducted next month. In May, the PM had won this seat with a record of over 3 lakh votes. Up north in Rajasthan, again a state ruled by the BJP, it is another straight fight between the two major national parties. Like in Gujarat, the seats fell vacant after sitting BJP MLAs from Surajgarh, Weir, Nasirabad and Kota - South made the cut to the Lok Sabha. Having painted the state orange twice within a span of six months, CM Vasundhara Raje and her party are expected to sail though easily despite of the INC trying hard to rediscover its winning streak here. In Chhattisgarh though, the fight for Antagarh constituency in the Bastar region may be neck and neck since the grand old party did better than the ruling BJP in this part of the state last year.

In the east, as many as four different states will witness by-elections. Assam which has been hit by communal and racial clashes in the last few months will see polls being conducted in Silchar (Barak Valley), Jamnunamukh and Lakhimpur (Upper Assam). For the saffron camp which bagged 7 of the 14 parliamentary seats from the state this year, it is a good opportunity to perform well and portray itself as a strong contender in 2016. On the other hand, Congress CM Tarun Gogoi needs to first put his own house in order and placate the section of the party unhappy with him so that he could face off the tough challenge posed by the opposition. In the Rangang-Yangang seat in Sikkim, incumbent CM Pawan Kumar Chamling's brother Rup Narayan is in the fray as an independent. The serving CM had won two seats and had vacated this constituency. This has become a major embarrassment for the SDF. In Tripura, the only state where the Communist continue to do well, the CPI(M) is most likely to retain the Manu seat. In Bengal, the TMC is engaged in a four cornered fight with the Lefts, the Congress and the BJP over Basirhat - South and Chowringhee. Though Didi holds the edge, it will be interesting to see if any of the three opposition parties can beat the Trinamool. Moving into the peninsular region, with KCR taking oath as the first CM of Telangana, his parliamentary seat of Medak will see by-polls. While the TRS is expected to win the seat with a huge margin, the INC is looking for revenge for Rao's renegade on his promise of merging his outfit into the Congress. The TDP-BJP alliance too is in the fray. For Nandigama by-elections in Andhra, the contest is between the TDP and the INC after the YSRCP refused to field any candidate. Meanwhile, the date of counting is on 16^th September, three days after the voters cast their votes.

For more on the August-September 2014 By-polls, click here (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: In.Com (Link)

UTTAR PRADESH & LOK SABHA 2014

THE BATTLE OF BATTLES

Now we come to the big daddy of all - the state of Uttar Pradesh. Having encompassed the entire country, we can now spend some time analyzing the most populous state of the country. Actually, only five countries in the entire world including India have more people than UP. With 80 parliamentary seats up for grabs, the way to Delhi truly passes via Lucknow. In the past though, we have seen that none of the four major parties here have been able to win a decisive victory as far as the last three Lok Sabha elections are concerned. However, in the last two state elections, the mandate has been clear; while Maya crossed the 200 mark in 2007, Akhilesh did even better two years ago (Link). Now the question is whether any of the four main contenders can do the same in the 2014. After that stunning victory, the SP is confident of a good showing. The Congress and the RLD are hopeful of doing what they did in the last General Elections. Mayawati is keen on a comeback whereas the BJP is hopeful that the Modi wave will help them boost their figures.

ISSUES

(1) Development: While it is India's largest state, UP has lagged behind others like Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu in terms of industrial development. In spite of having extensive natural resources at its disposal, fertile soil and abundant water, majority of people continue to remain poor. One of the biggest reasons for this is has been that the local politics has been dominated by factors like caste and religion. However, this time the BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi has focused his election agenda on the plank of development. Of course this doesn't mean that there has been no caste or communal polarization by the saffron camp. However, the ground reality remains that the people here are keen to usher in development and enjoy fruits of it.

(2) Performance of the Akhilesh Yadav: It has been a little over two years since the young Akhilesh was placed at the helm of affairs in Lucknow. At 39 years old, he was one of the youngest CMs of the country and a lot was expected from him. Probably, the General Elections are the best time to see if the SP leader has been able to win the hearts of the people or not. While his regime has been true to some of its electoral promises made during the campaign, the fact remains that the law and order situation in the state has deteriorated, like in earlier Samajwadi regimes. The failure to prevent the Muzaffarnagar riots and the suspension of upright officer Durga Shakti Nagpal have been blots on the young leader's career so far.

(3) Caste Equations: As mentioned earlier, the caste equations have traditionally dominated the politics in this state since independence. The BSP supremo Mayawati whose famed 'Social Engineering' saw her sweeping the 2007 polls has gone back to the drawing board, hopeful that selection of candidates based on their caste would help her stage a grand come back. Besides, the Dalit votes, she is trying to woo the Brahmins who played a key in her victory seven years ago. The SP is dependent on the support of the Yadavs. The BJP, known as a party of the Upper Castes has roped in the Kurmi outfit - the Apna Dal in its fold.

(4) Communal Polarization: Apart from caste politics, another matter of concern in the big state is communal polarization. This certainly works here as seen during the early nineties when the BJP swept the state, riding on the sentiments following the demolition of the Babri Masjid. The candidature of Narendra Modi has made 'Secularism' a major talking point across the nation, more so in UP which accounts for nearly half of the country's total Muslim population. Moreover, after the Muzaffarnagar riots (Link) in Western UP, communal flares are running high. Amit Shah, whose role in the alleged fake encounters in Gujarat has come under the scanner has been made the head of the BJP's campaign in UP. His visit to the Ram Janmabhoomi and his call to avenge the Muzaffarnagar riots are clearly an attempt to help it win votes on religious lines. SP Muslim face Azam Khan went a step further, claiming that it were 'Muslim' soldiers in the Indian army that won the Kargil war and later even refused to apologize. Congress president Sonia Gandhi met the Shahi Imam Syed Ahmed Bukhari to help consolidate minority votes. Even Mayawati has given many seats to Muslims.

CONTENDERS

(1) Samajwadi Party (SP): There were a lot of expectations as young Akhilesh Yadav was made the CM of UP after he led the party to a handsome victory in the state assembly polls. Two years down the line though, nothing seems to have changed. While his performance has been much better than that of the preceding Mayawati regime, the young Turk's inability to protect the Muslims during the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013 has led to bad press. With his son in Lucknow, daddy Mulayum Singh Yadav is eyeing a bigger role for himself in national politics, having been a founder member of the Third Front (Link). If he does manage to win over 25 seats, he could be the Federal coalition's PM choice. Apart from highlighting their regime's 'development' work, the SP is also hoping to benefit from communal polarization, especially in the aftermath of the riots and the candidature of Narendra Modi. In fact, senior leader and outfit's Muslim face Azam Khan had been banned by the EC from campaigning for flaring up religious sentiments. Also, in a bid to stem the Modi wave, Mulayum has also decided to contest from Azamgarh, besides his traditional seat of Mainpuri. Other candidates include the CM's wife Dimple Yadav (Kannauj) and party supremo's nephews - Akshay Yadav (Firozabad) and Dharmendra Yadav (Badaun).

(2) Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP): For two long years, Behenji has virtually lost her political dominance in the big state to her bete noire - the SP. After that drubbing she got in 2012, the former UP CM is hopeful that the next Lok Sabha would see her making a grand comeback. However, the BSP's campaign has been rather lackluster. It has not been able to project itself as a strong contender here. Even the talks of alliance with the Congress, something that was doing the rounds for some time failed as Mayawati realized from her past experiences that her allies' votes do not go to her outfit. At the same time we need to keep in mind that she just cannot be written off. The Dalit leader may well spring a surprise like she has done in the past. As usual, she has relied on the caste equations to win seats. Her party's candidates include a mix of mix of SCs, STs, Muslims, Thakurs and Brahmins. Prominent amongst these are Akbar Hussain (Rampur), Shah Alam (Azamgarh), Qadir Rana (Muzaffarnagar), Mukul Upadhyaya (Ghaziabad), Satish Awana (Noida), Seema Upadhyaya (Fatehpur Sikri), and Narayan Singh (Agra).

(3) United Progressive Alliance: In 2009, the Congress performed out of its skin to win over 20 seats. This time, though it has the RLD with it, crossing even the 10 mark is going to be extremely difficult. Even former CM and veteran Congress leader Jagdambika Pal has crossed over to the BJP. The INC found itself in the centre of a controversy as its candidate Imran Masood in a video film threatened to cut Modi into pieces. He was later sent to judicial custody in what turned out to be an embarrassment for the party. As brother Rahul faced stiff competition from Smriti Irani and Kumar Vishwas, sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra came to the rescue, campaigning in the pocket boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli. Her war of words with Narendra Modi - the 'Neech Rajneeti' comment and with her cousin Varun provided fodder to the media. The party's nominees include the president Sonia Gandhi (Rae Bareli), her son and vice president Rahul Gandhi (Amethi), former state party president Rita Bahuguna (Lucknow), film stars Raj Babbar (Ghaziabad) and Nagma (Meerut), cricketer Mohammad Kaif (Phoolpur) and ministers - Sri Prakash Jaiswal (Kanpur) and Salman Khurshid (Farrukhabad).

The Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) is fighting the polls in alliance with the Congress. However, the situation for Ajit Singh led party is precarious. The Muzaffarnagar riots have led to a split between the two traditional voters in western UP - the Jats and the Muslims. It is believed that while the former are gravitating towards the BJP, the former may vote for the BSP. The Union government's decision to grant reservation for the Jats may help retain the farmer votes. Also, the party welcomed former SP leader Amar Singh (Link) some time back. Its key candidates include chief Ajit Singh (Baghpat), his son Jayant Chaudhary (Mathura), Amar Singh (Fatehpur Sikri) and his aide Jaya Prada (Rampur).

(4) National Democratic Alliance: For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its Mission 272+ to succeed, it has to win a significant number of parliamentary seats in UP. The saffron camp has come up with a two fold strategy to do well in the state that propelled it on to the national stage. Firstly, the party is banking on Modi's development agenda to strike a chord with the electorate who seem to have been left out of the India growth story. Secondly, for the BJP which came into prominence banking on the Hindutva plank following the demolition of the Babri Masjid, the Muzaffarnagr riots seems to have given it just the kind of the opening that it was looking for. Narendra Modi's close aide Amit Shah was deputed to UP to strengthen the grass root organization and help the party increase its tally. In fact, Shah was gagged by the Election Commission for his revenge remark while campaigning in the communally sensitive Western UP. However, he was let off after he expressed regret for his remark. Another controversy that the party found itself in was the candidature of Modi from Varanasi, a seat represented by senior leader M M Joshi. Though the saffron leader was said to be keen to re-contest from there, he was 'forced' to move to Kanpur. The BJP's candidates include Narendra Modi (Varanasi), Murali Manohar Joshi (Kanpur), Rajnath Singh (Lucknow), Menaka Gandhi (Pilibhit), Varun Gandhi (Sultanpur) and General V K Singh (Ghaziabad).

The Kurmi outfit Apna Dal (AD) has entered into an electoral alliance with the BJP. Party leader Anupriya Patel, who is the daughter of the party founder late Dr. Sonelal Patel will contest from Mirzapur. Meanwhile, Harivansh Singh has been given the ticket from Pratapgarh. The coalition is expected to help the NDA get the support of the Patel community which is strong in some pockets.

(5) Aam Admi Party (AAP): Three of the top AAP leaders are contesting from the big state as the newly launched outfit is planning to make a sensational debut this General Elections. Chief Arvind Kejriwal who resigned as the Delhi CM has filed his nomination from Varanasi against Narendra Modi in what is expected to be the mother of all battles. The kind of support he is getting shows that the temple town along the Ganga is not going to be a cake walk for the Gujarat CM. Poet turned politician Kumar Vishwas has jumped into the fray against another big name - Rahul Gandhi from Amethi. Having come to his constituency nearly three months ago, he is keen to work upon the early bird advantage. Another AAP leader and former journalist Shazia Ilmi is contesting against former Army General V K Singh from Ghaziabad.

PAST PERFORMANCE

In 1996, it was the BJP which swept the state winning as many as 52 seats and the Samajwadis emerged as the second largest party in UP while the Congress and the BSP were reduced to single digits. Two years later, the saffronists ended up with 57 seats, the highest that any party has got in the big state over the last two decades. While the NDA came to power in 1999, its tally here was reduced by half. The SP came in at a close second and the BSP and the INC crossed into the two digit mark. Five years down the line, Mulayum's party reached its zenith, winning 35 seats. Even Maya bagged 19 seats while the BJP's numbers plummeted to just 10, one more than the INC. Finally in 2009, the SP slipped to 23 although it did end up as the largest party in the state. The big surprise was the Congress which bagged 21 seats, one more than the BSP. The BJP cut a sorry figure at 10.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Samajwadi Party (SP)	23	35	26	20	16
Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	20	19	14	4	6
Congress	21	9	10	-	5
Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)	5	3	2	-	-
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	10	10	29	57	52
Others	1	4	4	4	6

(1) There were 85 seats in the state of Uttar Pradesh before the creation of Uttarakhand in 2001.

MY PREDICTIONS

The Modi wave in Uttar Pradesh coupled by some smart decisions made on the ground by Amit Shah will help the BJP and its allies win close to 50 seats. The SP will be the runners up and may win up to 15 seats. The BSP will struggle to cross into two digits whereas the Congress-RLD combine will virtually be wiped out.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	NDA (BJP + AD)	46-50
2	Samajwadi Party (SP)	12-16
3	Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	7-11
4	UPA (Congress + RLD)	3-7
5	Others	0-2

WATCH OUT

(1) A Modi wave in UP? With Amit Shah supervising the party campaign in Uttar Pradesh, many are expecting a Modi wave in UP. The state sends 80 MPs to the Lower House and a good showing here could propel the NDA close to the half way mark. The best showing that the saffronists had here was in 1998 when the BJP under Vajpayee won as many as 57 seats. There is no doubt that Modi's nomination from Varanasi was an effort to help the party's cause in the country's most populous state (Link). The question is whether the saffron camp can replicate that success, especially with the grass root organization being weakened and the star emergence of the two regional players - the SP and the BSP.

(2) Performance of the three regional players and their role in the Third Front: For the Third Front to have any chance whatsoever of coming to power, the regional parties have to do well. In fact with the SP and the BSP chiefs not seeing eye to eye, practically only one of the two i.e. the one which finishes with more seats could be a part of such a confederation. With the SP winning a massive electoral victory in 2012 state polls, Mulayum is expected to do well. The former UP CM like many other regional players is said to be nursing PM ambitions. Mayawati too is keen to make a comeback. After being demolished in 2012, the Dalit ki Beti is hopeful that a 20+ show could help her regain some lost pride. Another small regional player is the RLD. Having been a part of both the NDA and the UPA over the last five years, it would not take much for him to change loyalties and help either of the three major coalitions in case they fall short of numbers in the Parliament.

(3) Can the Congress do a miracle, yet again? In 2009, the Congress did a extremely well, winning as many as 21 seats in UP. Considering that the party's organization has completely eroded here in the past, the performance was incredible. As usual, many Congressmen gave the credit of that spectacular showing to Rahul Gandhi. Of course, that bubble bursted in the 2012 state assembly elections when in spite of heavy campaigning by Baba, the grand old party failed to even cross the 25 mark; in fact, their performance even in the family boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli was bad. Besides, many believed that Varun Gandhi's controversial statement in Pilibhit helped consolidation of the Muslim votes in favor of the INC. Now, in 2014 the Gandhi in the saffron camp has not made any such statement. So the question is whether the Congress can even come to close to that figure in got in the last Lok Sabha polls.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

THE PARADOX

MODI AND VARANSI: ANOTHER CONTRADICTION IN INDIA'S POLITICAL TAMASHA

Original: World HD Wallpaper

India is a land of 'contradictions'. In our country, we see paradoxes in all spheres, be it our culture, our society or even our economics. In fact, our politics, more than anything else personifies this word. How many times have we seen political parties switch sides without any regards to their 'ideology' either to gain power or for electoral benefits. On the eve of the General Elections, our leaders seem to have no problem in switching sides; the babus who have been with a particular political party for years show no remorse while walking over to the opposition camp and mingling with erstwhile political rivals. Forget that, the voters in the world's largest democracy too can, at times, take contradictory stance while exercising the most important right guaranteed by the Constitution. In fact, I see a whole bundle of contradictions in the BJP's decision to field its PM nominee Narendra Modi from the seat of Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh. Of course, it is easy to see why the saffron outfit took this decision. By making the Gujarat CM stand from a seat in the east, the NDA wants to demonstrate that the Modi wave spans across the country and is not a phenomenon restricted to the West. Besides, performing well in UP is extremely crucial for the party in its quest to gain power in 2014. In fact, the BJP is hoping that the move will reap benefits across the Hindi heartland. There is another section of people which thinks that there is a hidden 'Hindutva' agenda behind this, considering the fact that Kashi is an extremely holy place for Indians. Finally, there are those who feel that it is a part of the BJP's strategy to get their leader elected from a 'safe seat'. Keeping the politics apart, I too have certain views on it.

(1) The Idea of India: Located right in the heart of the rich and fertile Gangetic plain, Varanasi or Benaras is one of the centres where the great Indian culture evolved over a period spanning several millennia. It was here that the 'Idea of India' was born - a country which derives its strength from its diversity; a nation to people who worship different Gods, speak myriad languages and belong to varied races; a nation which believes in peaceful co-existence, non-violence and harmony; a country which prides itself as the torchbearer of humanity. In fact, even the demographics of the city (80% Hindus, 18% Muslims and 2% Others) is pretty similar to that of the rest of the country. Now contrast this to the image of the Gujarat CM Narendra Modi. In 2002, he failed to protect the minorities in his state, though he may not have been directed involved in the riots. While the courts may have given him a clean chit, the fact remains that the BJP's PM nominee has, on several occasions hurt the sentiments of the Muslims. His refusal to wear a skull cap during his 'Sadbhavana' fast or his puppy dog remark have been in bad taste. The saffronists may justify this saying that Modi's intentions were noble. However, a leader who aims to be the next Prime Minister of the country must learn to pick his words correctly. Considering his 'not-so-secular' credentials, the Gujarat CM's nomination is in complete contrast to Idea of India which is personified by the city of Benaras. At the same time, I need to clarify that I am in no way a supporter of the 'pseudo-secularism' practiced by the Congress or the likes of Mulayum or Lalu. In fact, playing the minority card is as dangerous as believing in appeasing the majority for the future of the country.

(2) The Old and the New India: I am not sure as to how many of you agree with me on this. Varanasi is one of the oldest continuously inhabited places on the Earth. While India is today considered to be one of the fastest growing nations in the world, the city along the banks of the Holy Ganga continues to hold on to its old world charm. Drenched in traditions and soaked in spirituality, the narrow by lanes lanes of the city, littered with waste on either side are shared by both, the residents and the cows. It is so much different from the big cities and metros in the country which have attracted companies and firms from all across the world. While Varanasi may still be bound by the ideals and the values of the past, for many, especially the youth, Modi represents a young and a dynamic India, poised to play a major role in international politics. His success in getting foreign investments from different parts of the world to Gujarat, his love for technology, his innovative ideas, his vision for a stronger India and his pro-development agenda has made him very popular with younger voters. Many of his supporters address him as the 'Vikas purush'. Again, I find some contradiction here.

(3) The Caste Factor: Now this is one contradiction that I am so proud of. Abode of the Lord Kashinath, Varanasi is one of the holiest places in Hinduism. According to the Puranas, it is the favorite city of Shiva - the Destroyer. Lakhs of devotees visit this pilgrimage centre each year to seek the blessing of the resident deity and take a dip in the Holy Ganga. In fact, it is believed that anybody who dies here is liberated from the cycle of birth, thereby attaining 'Moksha'. As such, the Brahmins, the priestly class amongst the Hindus yield considerable influence in the city. However, the BJP's nominee from here is an OBC by birth. Narendra Modi's humble origins are well known. He is the son of a tea vendor, who used to sell tea at the railway station in Mehsana. The very fact that a person from the so-called 'lower' caste can contest and possibly win from a seat dominated by the 'higher' castes is, in my opinion, a contradiction. Whether he wins or not or whether he becomes the next PM or not is not important. We have to appreciate the it is the vision of our founding fathers and a great triumph for our democratic values that caste lines have blurred, at least to some extent. Now it goes without saying that we need to do a lot more. At the same time, we also have to acknowledge that at least some progress has been done.

THE STATES THAT MATTER - PART V

 BATTLEGROUND UP - Part B

With a population of over 20 crore people and encompassing an area of over 2.43 lakh sq km, Uttar Pradesh is the big daddy amongst all states of the Indian Union. Though blessed with fertile land and vast bounty of natural and human resource, the state has lagged behind others in terms of infrastructure development and social progress. While UP has given the country eight Prime Ministers since independence, ironically, the state which has been the melting pot of various cultures in ancient and medieval times, and its people have remained largely backward in many aspects. A crucial reason for this has been the fact that the politics of UP has been dominated by insignificant factors like caste and religion. 

In the last assembly elections conducted in the state in 2007, an important factor, apart from the ‘Social Engineering’ strategy that led to the BSP’s excellent showing was a strong wave of anti-incumbency against the Mulayam Singh regime. With the BJP jostling with infighting amongst its top leaders and the state unit of the Congress in complete disarray, the anti-SP votes went into Maya’s kitty leading her to a simple majority in the Uttar Pradesh Vidhan Soudha. However, this time around the tables have turned on the BSP. With the few development schemes of the Mayawati government being overshadowed by the numerous corruption scandals, poll pundits have predicted that the party may find it extremely tough to cross the 150 mark, let alone coming into power on its own.

UP CM  Mayawati

The Samajwadis have undergone significant changes in their ranks in the last five years that they were in the opposition. After the Left parties pulled out their support to the UPA - I government on the issue of the Nuclear bill, it was the SP that bailed the Central government out with the help of its 39 MPs. However, with differences over the Congress on seat sharing in the state, the SP joined the ‘Fourth Front’, comprising of the RJD, LJP and SP. Although the party was reduced to 23 seats in the Lok Sabha, it salvaged some pride by finishing at the top in the four way contest in Uttar Pradesh. In January 2011, industrialist cum politician Amar Singh was expelled from the SP. Known for his affluent lifestyle, links with Bollywood personalities and accused in several cases of corruption, Singh’s exit has added more credibility to the outfit.

The Samajwadi Party has launched a massive campaign, titled ‘Ummed ki Cycle’ to wrest back power from the BSP. Leading the poll bandwagon is Kannauj MP and the party’s Yuvraj Akhilesh Yadav. The young leader’s cycle rallies across different corners of the state have been a huge hit and have witnessed sizable crowds. The state polls will be a crucial phase in the young scion’s political career and a good showing by the SP will firmly establish him as a prominent player in North Indian politics. The foreign educated Akhilesh has also made it clear that his party is not against computers or English, a paradigm shift from its earlier stand and an attempt to reach out to the urban youth. However, he has maintained that emphasis will be on Hindi and Urdu in case his father gets a fourth term as the state’s Chief Minister.

However, the greatest worry for the SP is losing the anti-BSP votes to a resurgent Congress. After being out of power for the last 22 years and reduced to a mere 21 seats in the last elections, the UP unit of the party has been rejuvenated by the entry of Rahul Gandhi into the election campaign. Though his charisma failed to impress the electorate in Bihar, Rahul seems to have touched a chord with the people of UP. This was evident in the superb performance of the Congress in the General elections where it bagged as many as 21 seats surpassing all expectations.

Realizing that a strong presence in the state will hold the key to his party’s future, the young leader has never missed any opportunity to hit at the Mayawati government, be it the Bhatta-Parsaul agitation against forcible land grabbing, lack of development or the allegations of corruption against Behenji and her colleagues. In his speeches, Rahul has blamed the successive SP, BSP and BJP governments in Lucknow for the lack of infrastructure development in the state, ignoring the fact that no worthwhile development was done during the 40 year long period when the Congress was in power in the state. An alliance with Ajit Singh’s RLD has also enhanced the Congress’s poll prospects. While her older brother is campaigning across the nook and corner of the state, Priyanka Gandhi, the other half of the famous Gandhi siblings is canvassing for the party’s candidates in the family bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareli.

With so much media hype revolving around Rahul, many are claiming that this could be the make-or-break elections for him A good showing by the Congress will be regarded as a vote for Rahul rather than for the Congress’s ideology by the loyal party workers and will be heralded as his coming of age in the arena of Indian politics, thereby accelerating his ascent towards the PM’s post. However, an average performance could end up giving more ammunition to the BJP and other parties to ridicule the Congress’s poster boy. Though there is little doubt that senior party leaders will defend Rahul baba at all costs in case of an electoral drubbing, like they did after the Bihar polls in 2010, the whole situation will surely be embarrassing for the Congress, to say the least.

Even the BJP is trying hard to retain lost ground in the state. The saffron outfit which ruled the state under Kalyan Singh and Rajnath Singh has been consistently losing ground in the state over the last few years. For a party that began its journey to the top of Indian politics from UP, it is ironically that today, the BJP finds itself in such a hopeless position in the state. Strengthening the party in Uttar Pradesh is one of the topmost priorities of the chief Nitin Gadkari. With this objective in mind the party has made Hindutva firebrand and its OBC face, Uma Bharathi as the spearhead of its election campaign. Also the party is trying hard to woo back the upper caste votes that had gone to the BSP in the last election.

Babu Singh Kushwaha

Ever since the whole nation stood behind Anna Hazare in the fight for a strong and effective Lokpal, corruption has become a major political issue in every state that goes to polls this year and Uttar Pradesh is no exception. With fresh allegations of corruption cropping up at regular intervals against Behenji and her ministers, the Opposition has upped its ante against the state government. Many will remember that during her previous tenure, the UP CM was accused of accepting graft to give clearance to the multi-crore Taj Corridor project, ignoring all environmental concerns and the damaging effects it would have on the World Heritage Monument. Though no significant progress has been made in the CBI investigation looking into the scam, a slew of corruption charges against the Dalit icon’s cabinet ministers and close aides might cut short her dream of retaining the mega state.

Probably, the most well-known of all the scams that have tarnished the BSP government is the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) scam in which top ministers, bureaucrats and their aides have been accused of siphoning off an estimated Rs 10,000 crore released by the Central government for improving health care in remote areas of the state. Moreover, the death of several heath department officials under mysterious circumstances is been widely viewed as an attempt to cover up the scam by eliminating key links that lead to the actual perpetrators of the crime. Meanwhile, Union Rural Development minister Jairam Ramesh has asked Mayawati to order a CBI investigation into the embezzlement of funds meant for the implementation of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) in several districts of the state. The myriad cases of land grabbing, amassing of disproportionate assets, misuse of power and public wealth have clearly put the elephant on the back foot.

Rahul Gandhi is raking up the issue of widespread corruption in the Maya government to get the Congress into power in Lucknow. In every rally that the PM-in-waiting has addressed so far in the state, he has accused the BSP’s Hatthi of eating all money released by the UPA government for the welfare of the state. On similar lines, the father-son duo of Mulayam Singh and Akhilesh Yadav has also focused on the issue of corruption to catapult the SP back to power. The BJP, which had earlier accused the Maya government of indulging in widespread corruption, scored a self-goal by welcoming the former state minister Babu Singh Kushwaha into the party after he was shown the door by Behenji following investigations into the NRHM scam. Besides, hitting the credibility of the saffron outfit, it has also damaged the morale of the cadre, who reports suggest, were against the move taken unilaterally by the high command.

As always, instead of taking all the criticism lying down, the ‘Iron Lady’ of Uttar Pradesh has launched a major campaign to get an image makeover ahead of the polls. After a report by the CAG indicted the state health and family welfare ministries in the NHRM scam, Mayawati dropped two of her closest ministers, Babu Singh Kushwaha (Family Welfare) and Anant Kumar Mishra (Health) from her cabinet and her party. Several tainted babus including Awadhesh Verma (Backward Class Development), Fateh Bahadur Singh (Forest), Anis Ahmed (Minorities Welfare & Haj), Awadhpal Singh Yadav (Animal Husbandry & Diary Development), etc were sacked after the state Lokayukta started probing allegations against them. Others like Shrinath (Chairman of UP SC/ST Commission), Disha Chamber (Chairman of UP Scheduled Caste Finance Commission) and Ashok Kumar Dhore (Water Resource) were dismissed for reasons like extra-marital affair, indiscipline and misconduct respectively. Like the BJP in Uttarakhand, the BSP has dropped nearly a third of all its sitting MLAs, including nearly 20 ministers in the incumbent government.

While it is true that Maya’s record in the last five years in tackling corruption in UP has been dismal, to say the least, no political party can claim moral high ground on this issue. To counter Rahul tirade against the BSP government for being inefficient to tackle this menace, Mayawati has hit back by highlighting the several scandals that have plagued the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre. The entry of Kushwaha into the BJP has dealt a severe blow to the party’s campaign in the state and it has failed to derive any political mileage out of the catch 22 situation that the Congress and the BSP find themselves in. The Samajwadis have decided to play it safe and have slammed its doors on all cabinet ministers and MLAs who wanted to join its rank after being dumped by the BSP. Meanwhile, investigations into allegations of corruption against Mulayam and his close relatives, including Akhilesh are still in progress. 

Dalit women

Probably, the biggest issue in all elections in UP so far, from the Lok Sabha elections to the Panchayat elections has been the caste factor. Whether one accepts or not, it is rather sad that the caste of the candidate decides whom the voter votes for in. Over the years, regional satraps like Maya and Mulayam have become masters of this trade.

Behenjihas emerged to be the most popular Dalitleader in India and her party's vote bank is primarily the Harijan votes. In 2007, she reached out to other communities, most notably the upper castes with her unique experiment of 'Social Engineering' - a brainchild of leader, Subhash Mishra, and came to power with an absolute majority. The Brahmin leader was sidelined in the BSP after he was accused of appointing his family members to party posts, leading to protests from the Dalit leaders who felt that this would cause the party's core vote bank to drift away. Soon their fears turned into reality when a significant chunk of Dalit votes went to the Congress and the BSP managed to get only 20 seats in the last general elections. Hoping to retain her post and the to woo the Brahmin community, Mayawati has brought back Mishra into the forefront ahead of the polls. 

Like Mayawati, the SP's primary vote bank is the Yadav and OBC community to which its leader Mulayam belongs to. The Congress is also hoping to win the Dalit and OBC communities to its side, with Rahul Gandhi making every effort possible to reach out to them. The BJP on its part is going all out to bring back the Brahmin votes, which it had lost to the BSP in 2007, to its kiity. Also, by making OBC leader Uma Bharati the face of its state campaign, the saffron outfit is hoping to increase its chances of winning as many seats as possible. Besides, it has also risked roping in Babu Kushwaha to win over the Kushwaha community that accounts for 3% of the state's population.

More on the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2012

Battleground UP - Part A

Battleground UP - Part C

SOURCES

(1) Zee News –Multi-crore MNREGA scam in UP, alleges Ramesh (Link)

(2) Wikipedia – Taj Corridor Scam, UP NHRM scam, Akhilesh Yadav (Link) 

(3) BSP claims Mayawati sacked ministers after survey – India Today (Link)

(4) With eye on UP polls, Mayawati intensifes clean-up – India Today (Link)

(5) Mayawati woos Brahmins in run up to elections, projects SC Mishra as leader (Link)

IMAGES

(1) UP CM Mayawati (Link)

Source: Zee News

(2) Babu Singh Kushwaha (Link)

Source : India Today

(3) Dalit women (Link)

Source : Jagran Post

THE STATES THAT MATTER - PART II

BATTLEGROUND UP - Part A

In Indian politics, they say that ‘The road to Delhi goes via Lucknow’. With a population of about 20 crore and an assembly comprising of a staggering 406 seats, it is no doubt that the impact of the political drama played out in the state of Uttar Pradesh, are felt at the Centre. A large number of our national leaders hail from here and the issues that affect the people in the heart of the ‘Hindi heartland’ regularly find resonance in the national Parliament.

Apart from being the cradle of Indian civilization since time immemorial, the state has produced as many as eight Prime Ministers since independence and is also the home to India’s premiere political family – The Nehru-Gandhi family. It was the demolition of the Babri Masjid in the holy town of Ayodhya by Kar-sevaks in 1994 that catapulted the BJP to power, first in UP and then at the Centre. The 80 MPs that represent the state in the Lok Sabha play a crucial role in the permutations and combinations that take place in the process to form and retain Union governments or to stack in the numbers to pass contentious bills. After all, it was the support of the 23 Samajwadi Party MPS that saved the UPA government after the Communist pulled out their support to the Congress-led government citing differences over the nuclear deal. And as the state goes to polls early this year, it is but natural that the assembly polls will be fiercely contested and can make or break the careers of many a political heavyweights.

UP CM and BSP Chief Mayawati (Courtesty: Article)

The incumbent Chief Minister and the BSP supremo, Mayawati will be looking to recreate the magic that brought her to power in the 2007 assembly polls with a clear majority. Her unique experiment of fielding a combination of Dalit and Brahmin candidates, a brain-child of her confidant S C Mishra, dubbed as ‘Social Engineering’, won her the upper caste votes while BSP’s traditional lower caste support base continued to remain loyal to her. Though she has managed to complete her full term and improve the law and order situation in the state, several cases of corruption against her and her ministers, have continued to haunt her government from time to time. The forcible acquisition of land from farmers in Bhatta-Parsaul village in Muzzafarabad district and the agitation that followed, including the death of 4 people in the subsequent police crackdown on the farmer protests, caught nation-wide attention with opposition parties, including the Congress, BJP etc aiming to derive political mileage out of the situation. And of course, the construction of several parks across the state with statues of her, Dr Ambedkar, her mentor Kanshi Ram and her party symbol, the Elephant out of public exchequer has been regularly criticized with her political rival, Mulayam Singh threatening to pull them down if elected to power.

In the 2009 general elections, the ‘Dalit ki beti’ who is today, India’s richest CM, reiterated her desire to become the first Dalit Prime Minister of the country. Although she won 6.7% of the total votes casted and the BSP emerged as the third largest party in terms of vote share, she managed to win a paltry 21 seats, two less than the SP and one less the Congress in UP. While her dream to become the PM was dashed, Maya tried to replicate her 2007 strategy in several other states but with little or no success.

Aiming to retain power for a second consecutive term, Behenji has tried to improve her public image by sacking several ‘corrupt’ ministers from her party including her former close aide, Babu Singh Kushwaha and Avdesh Verma and has denied tickets to many of her ‘non-performing’ MLAs. Instead of talking about her achievements as the state’s CM, which in fact, were few and far in between, Maya’s election campaign is expected to be largely based on the shortcomings of her political opponents and thus projecting herself  as the only viable alternative in the four sided contest. Besides, she has raised the issue of bifurcation of UP into four smaller states, thereby putting other political parties into a tight spot and cut them to size while consolidating her position. Although opinion polls predict a hung assembly, a victory in the upcoming polls will further give wings to her national aspirations and make her a top contender for the leadership of the Third Front in the 2014 general elections, provided its constituents remain loyal to the cause of forming a non-Congress, non-BJP government at the Centre.

SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav (Courtesy: Samajwadi Party)

 At 72, Mulayam Singh Yadav will enter the fray to seek a fourth term as the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. Training his guns at the incumbent CM on the issue of widespread corruption in the Mayawati government, the Samajwadi Party which has christened its poll campaign as ‘Ummed ki cycle’, promising to ‘undo all damage’ caused by the BSP government  in the last five years. The cycle rallies organized across the state have attracted sizable crowds but it remains to be seen whether it translates into votes or not. Amar Singh’s exit has added more credibility to the party whereas the re-entry of his rival and the party’s Muslim face, Azam Khan after being expelled for six years in 2009 for anti-party activities, has boosted the morale of party workers. Realizing that corruption is a major political issue, all thanks to the Anna Hazare movement, the SP has slammed its doors on several ministers who were dropped from the Maya cabinet as they were accused of corruption. However, the lawlessness during his previous tenures and several impending corruption cases against him and his family members are questions that have been regularly raised by Mulayam’s detractors and political opponents.

Leading his party’s 'Kranti Rath Yatra', crown prince and Kannauj MP Akhilesh Yadav has travelled across the length and breadth of UP in a bid to convince people of vote for his party. Although the junior Yadav has denied reports that he is the SP’s Chief Ministerial candidate, a win in the polls will be a shot in the arms and will, for sure, firmly establish his stature as a mass leader. A victory for the Samajwadi Party will also bolster Mulayam’s standing on the political stage ahead of the next national elections. The post poll tie up with the Congress, like in the past, is likely in case of a hung assembly.

Congress leaders Digvijay Singh and Rahul Gandhi (Courtesy: Hindu) 

Excluding the Jagdambika Pal government that was termed ‘unconstitutional’ by the Supreme Court in 1998 after three days in office, the Congress has effectively remained out of power in Lucknow in last 22 years. The fortunes of the party have dwindled over the years and its support base has been largely reduced to areas like Rae Bareily and Amethi - the Nehru-Gandhi bastions.

However, the 2009 general elections saw a revival of the party as it won an amazing 22 seats to emerge as the second largest party in the terms of the total seats won in Uttar Pradesh. The party leaders gave the credit of this surprising success to Rahul Baba’s campaign and urged him to work towards strengthening the party’s state unit. Over the last few years, he has never missed any opportunity to hit out at the Mayawati government, accusing the 'Elephant' in Lucknow of eating up all the cenral funds allocated to the state by the UPA government. He along with the Congress general secretary and ‘drama-king’, Digvijay Singh led an agitation against the police atrocities in Bhatta-Parsaul. However, the so-called youth icon’s claims that 70 farmers had died in the police crackdown and several of their women were raped, could not be backed with any substantial evidence and like in the past, the senior party leaders had to step in to defend the Gandhi scion.

Though chances of Congress retuning to power, in spite of a pre poll alliance with Ajit Singh’s RLD, look bleak, the party will try to muster as many seats as possible and will for sure win more seats than in 2007, when it was reduced to just 22. A good performance by the Congress will be a major milestone in Rahul's journey towards the PM's chair whereas a poor show will give the opposition another reason to belittle the Congress's Yuvraj. A post poll tie up with the SP is a realistic possibility and will be a win-win situation for both the parties. While Mulayam will fulfill his political aspirations in UP, the entry of the SP into the UPA will boost its strength and reduce the Congress’s dependence on the mercurial TMC chief Mamata Bannerji. Also, the tie up will help the Congress-led government to push its own version of the Lokpal Bill on the upcoming Parliamentary session as it will have the necessary numbers in both the Houses and prevent further embarrassment from the Opposition and civil society members over the issue.

BJP leaders Arun Jaitley and L K Advani (Courtesy: India Today)

The BJP which grew out of UP to become the alternative to the Congress has seen the highs and the lows in the state in the last two decades. In its zenith, the saffron outfit ruled the state on its own under Kalyan Singh and tied up several times with BSP but this ‘marriage of political convenience’ has been short lived and has ended up in public fallout followed by mud-slinging from both sides. The BJP today has no prominent leader in the state who can mesmerize the crowds like former PM Atal Behari Vajpayee did during his political career. Murali Manohar Joshi, Lalji Tandon and Ranjnath Singh lack the charisma and support base to take on the likes of Mulayam and Mayawati. In the 2007 assembly polls, the BSP ate into the BJP’s traditional upper caste vote bank, thereby reducing it to just 50 odd seats. The alleged inflammatory speech by Varun Gandhi boomeranged on the party as the Muslim votes polarized in favor of the Congress in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, and the party finished fourth in spite of an alliance with the Kurmi outfit, Apna Dal.

Hindutva leader Uma Bharati, who was re-inducted into the party after being dismissed for her on camera spat with Advani has been made in-charge of the UP poll campaign. The party’s image took a beating when it embraced former BSP leader, Kushwaha in spite of corruption charges against him. Though the party has tried some damage control by keeping the former state minister’s primary membership on hold for the time being, it has lost the moral high ground on the issue of corruption. As such the BJP’s tirade against Congress over the scams in the UPA regime and its failure to draft a ‘strong’ Lokpal Bill may find few, if not no takers. Also, Kushwaha’s entry has drawn criticism from all quarter, including the state unit, the Sangh Parivar and NDA allies. Like the Congress, the BJP too has no realistic chance of coming to power on its own in UP. Rather it will hope to retain its present number tally or at best, try to win around 80 to 100 seats and may end up aligning with the BSP.

While the largest state of the world’s largest democracy goes to polls, the Election Commission of India has an uphill task to ensure that the exercise is conducted in a free and fair manner and the code of conducted is adhered to by all candidates. Considering the sheer massiveness of the state and the hooliganism that has infested it in the past, the EC has decided to conduct the elections in seven phases starting from 8^th February to 3^rd March. Will Mayawati’s ‘Social Engineering’ work for the second time or will Mulayam ride his way to the legislative assembly on the SP’s cycle? Will Rahul Gandhi’s charisma translate into votes for the Congress or will the BJP retain lost ground in the state? These and all other questions will be answered on 6^th March (The States That Matter - Part VII) as the votes are counted and the results are announced.

More on the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2012

The States That Matter V - Part B

The States That Matter V - Part C 

IMAGES

(1) UP CM and BSP Chief Mayawati (Courtesy: Article) (Link)

Source: Elephant Giving Nightmares to Rahul 

(2) Samajwadi Party leader Mulayum Singh Yadav (Courtesy: Samajwadi Party) (Link)

Source: Samajwadi Party

(3) Congress leaders Digvijay Singh and Rahul Gandhi (Courtesy: Hindu) (Link)

Source: The Hindu - UP polls: Congress for aggressive campaigning

(4) BJP leaders Arun Jaitely and L K Advani (Courtesy: India Today) (Link)

Source: India Today