MAIDAN-e-JUNG - Part IV

THE RESULTS

The elections to the legislative assembly of Jammu Kashmir have resulted in a hung assembly, yet again; while most parts of the country are voting for stability, the electorate in the northern state continues to remain divided on political lines. As expected, the PDP ended up emerging as the single largest party, closely followed in the second spot by the BJP. The NC managed to prevent a 'wash out' whereas its erstwhile ally, the Congress saw its numbers plummet. Though we did not have a clear winner, the ones who lost were the separatists and their handlers from across the border as people in massive numbers came out to exercise their democratic right.

Sr.	Political Party	Seats
1	People's Democratic Party (PDP)	28
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	25
3	National Conference (NC)	15
4	Congress (INC)	12
5	Jammu Kashmir People's Conference (JKPC)	2
6	Communist Party of India - Marxist (CPI-M)	1
7	Jammu Kashmir People's Democrati Front - Secular (JKPDF-S)	1
8	Independents	3

With 28 seats, the People's Democratic Party (PDP) managed to emerge as the single largest party in the state. The outfit's chief and former state CM Mufti Mohammed Sayeed won from the constituency of Anantnag for a second consecutive term. Like the BJP in Jharkhand, the PDP needs to analyze as to why it failed to win over 30 seats since there was a strong anti-incumbency against the NC and the Congress which was only amplified by Omar's handling of the flood situation. With the party falling short of a simple majority by 16 seats, it will be interesting to see how it can get the numbers needed to form the next regime in Srinagar. Allying with the Congress will not help; going with the BJP could hit the party's Muslim base in Kashmir whereas taking support of the NC - its traditional rival in the Valley could prove detrimental in the future.

While many may slam the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for its failure in its audacious 'Mission 44+', you have to give it to the saffron outfit for winning a staggering 25 seats in spite of the fact that all these came from Hindu dominated Jammu region. Having secured a whopping 23 percent vote share, the party was the most popular outfit in the state, truly an achievement for the BJP which was considered as a non-entity by many in this part of the country. This also proves that the BJP's exemplary performance in the Lok Sabha polls where it won 3 of the 6 parliamentary seats here was not a fluke. Going forward, the party now needs to expand its base in the Kashmir and the Ladakh region where it could not open its account. Though the party is pushing hard to be in the next government in Kashmir, it will be extremely difficult for either of the two main political parties in the state to enter into a coalition with the BJP considering its tough stance on Article 370 and autonomy to the state. Whether the party eventually forms its first government here or not, what is certain is that it is no longer an insignificant player in Jammu Kashmir.

Former CM Omar Abdullah should be given his share of credit for managing to win 15 seats in the wake of a strong anti-incumbency in the state. Though he may not be the best of administrators as his track record as the CM has proved, what one cannot ignore is that he continues to be an astute politician. The election verdict was a mixed bag for Abdullah junior. On a personal front, he lost from the constituency of Sonwar to PDP's Ashraf Mir while winning from Beerwah. Despite of this, the National Conference (NC) continues to be an important player in the formation of the next regime in Srinagar. As of now, Omar is holding his cards close to his chest. Though he has agreed to support a PDP government just to keep the BJP at bay, insiders say that he has also had meeting with several top saffron leaders.

The fortunes of the Congress continued to slide even further. Having broken off its alliance with the NC, it dropped three seats to finish with a tally of 12 seats. Considering what the poll pundits had predicted, the INC should be happy that it did cross into two digits. Following the results, the party has declared its support to the PDP which emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats. However, the alliance, if formed will still fall short of a majority by 4 seats.

Two candidates of the Jammu Kashmir People's Conference (JKPC) emerged victorious including the outfit's founder and former separatist Sajjad Lone. The JKPC chief has already pledged his support to the BJP. The Communist Party of India - Marxist (CPI-M) and the Jammu Kashmir People's Democratic Front - Secular (JKPDF-S) also won a seat each. Meanwhile, three independent candidates namely Abdul Rashid Sheikh (Langate), Mohammad Baqir Rizvi (Zanskar) and Pawan Kumar Gupta (Udhampur) also emerged victorious.

For all posts related to the Jammu Kashmir State Polls 2014, click here (Link)

MAIDAN-e-JUNG - Part III

THE ISSUES

The state of Jammu Kashmir will see elections being conducted to the state assembly in five phases starting from November 25^th to December 20^th considering the volatile political scenario here. Two days before voting begins, it is but clear that the race is between the PDP and the BJP. The Congress and its erstwhile partner - the NC are facing the heat and are unlikely to pose any serious challenge to the above mentioned main contenders. Here is a look at the issues that could decide who will win the upcoming elections in India's northern most state.

After ruling Jammu Kashmir in a coalition for the last six years, the National Conference (NC) and the Congress are facing massive anti-incumbency. As the polls are coming closer, there has been an exodus of high profile names from both these outfits. NC's candidate from Anantnag - Mehboob Baig whose family has had deep ties with the Abdullahs in the past has backed out from his contest against PDP chief Mufti Mohammad Sayeed. Another senior NC leader Sheikh Ghulam Rasool who was instrumental in CM Omar Abdullah's victory from Ganderbal constituency in 2008 too has joined the Muftis. Meanwhile, Ajatshatru Singh - the scion of the erstwhile royal family of Jammu Kashmir has joined the BJP. In a major blow to the NC, former CM and Omar's dad Farooq will not be campaigning for the party as he is unwell. In the Congress camp, two of its biggest leaders - Saifudin Soz and Ghulam Nabi Azad are believed to be reluctant to contest polls. The many corruption scandals that have rocked the Omar regime in its present term and devastation caused by the floods this September have only made the matters worse.

The Armed Forces Special Power's Act (AFSPA) which has been imposed in the state since 1990s is an emotive issue here and there is a growing clamor to do away with it. Over the years, a large section of the populace in Kashmir and several international organizations have slammed the Indian government for using such a draconian law to suppress the voices of the people in the region. The unfortunate death of two youths from Budgam in firing in Chattergam on 3^rd November has reignited the whole debate regarding this Act in spite of the army accepting that the whole incident was a mistake. The two major state parties - the NC as well as the People's Democratic Party (PDP) have always opposed it and are likely to raise this issue in the days to come to gather support while the national outfits see it as a 'necessary evil'. Closely related to the AFSPA is the demand for more autonomy for J&K. Interestingly, the BJP which was vocal in its opposition to Article 370 granting special status to the state during the General Elections has refrained from talking about it.

It is believed that when the fourth Mughal Emperor Jehangir came to the Kashmir valley, he was so enamored by its beauty that he equated it to the heavens. It is such a pity that today, the valley has been infested with Pakistan based terror groups intent on forcefully snatching it from India. Even in the past, infiltrators who do not believe in the democratic process have called for a boycott and a strike on the day of the polls. The separatists too have asked the people to stay away from exercising their right to chose their representatives. It will be a big challenge for our security forces and the Election Commission to make sure that the elections are conducted peacefully and the militants do not succeed in their sinister designs.

Development was the agenda that catapulted Narendra Modi and the BJP to power in 2014 General Polls. After the success in May when it won 3 of the 6 parliamentary seats from the state, the saffron outfit is hopeful that the same issue will strike a chord in the local elections too, thereby helping it achieve 'Mission 44'. Jammu Kashmir is one of the few areas of the country where there is a large scope of improvement as far as infrastructure and employment opportunities are concerned. Terrorism and instability have meant that large corporate houses have stayed away from the state. The PDP too has raked this issue during the course of the campaign.

Lastly, the manner in which three regions of the state viz Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh vote may decide who ends up as the largest party in the state. With 40 odd MLAs being elected from the Valley, this area is the key to the fortunes of the PDP which won all three parliamentary seats from here in May. With the NC facing anti-incumbency, the Muftis are confident of a good showing here. The BJP too is desperate to make in roads in this part. In the last few months, there is a small section of the people who have been vocal in their support to the saffronists. In Jammu, the BJP is in the driver's seat though it faces significant opposiiton from the PDP as well as the Congress. In Ladakh, it is more or less a straight fight between the two main national parties. 

For more posts on the Jammu Kashmir 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)

MAIDAN-e-JUNG - Part II

JAMMU, KASMIR & LADAKH: THE BATTLE FOR THE REGIONS

Earlier this week, Congress leader and former health minister in the Omar Abdullah cabinet Sham Lal Sharma kicked up a storm when he said that the next CM of the northern state should be a Hindu. Speaking at a function to mark the birthday of former PM Rajiv Gandhi, the Akhnoor MLA was clearly trying to play the 'communal' card in the Jammu region which the BJP had swept in the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls. I wonder where the likes of Digvijay Singh and Mani Shankar Aiyer are when someone within the Congress ranks makes such 'shameful' statements. Anyway, the rise of the saffron outfit in Jammu Kashmir has completely changed the political equations in the northern state. Aware that this is perhaps the best chance that the BJP has to come to power here, newly appointed party president Amit Shah has given a clarion call to the cadre here to work towards the accomplishment of his ambitious "Mission 44+'.

I do not want to sound 'communal' but there is certain amount of truth in what the former cabinet minister has said, that is, if we analyze his comments keeping in mind, the various regions in the state and the aspirations of the people there. A look back into history suggests that ever since the former princely state joined the Indian Union, all its Chief Ministers have been from the Valley. Accounting for 53% of the total population of the state and considering that Kashmir sending 46 MLAs to the state assembly, the leaders from here have dominated the state politics, besides monopolizing the position of the CM. However, this winter, things might turn out to be different. The three way battle in the Valley and the possibility of the saffron outfit sweeping Jammu could turns Sharma's 'vision' of a Hindu heading the state into reality, albeit the person may not be owing his allegiance either to the Gandhis or the Abdullahs or even the Muftis.

To understand how important the results in the Kashmir region have been in deciding the CM of the state, we need to go back in history. In 2008, Omar Abdullah was sworn in as the CM of the state after the NC joined hands with the Congress to form a coalition government. The two partners had together won 23 of the 46 seats here. Six years earlier, when the Muftis tied up with the INC, they had together won 21 seats, one more than the NC which ended up with a tally of 20. When Farooq Abdullah took over the reins of Jammu Kashmir in 1996, his outfit swept the Valley, winning a whopping 37 seats. Now coming to the polls scheduled later this year, it remains to be seen in the three cornered contest, will any one of the three contenders - the National Conference (NC), the People's Democratic Party (PDP) or the Congress can win a sizable number of seats from here. The Muftis, after winning all three seats from the Valley in the General Elections are hoping to do what the Abdullahs did way back in 1996. If either the NC or the PDP can win 25 to 30 seats here, then it could lay a legitimate claim to the CM's post.

Meanwhile, the results in the Jammu region would be the one that I will certainly keep an eye on. After beating former CM and Congress heavyweight Ghulam Nabi Azad in Udhampur and winning the Jammu seat by a massive margin, the BJP is expected to seen a big rise from its earlier tally of 11 seats. BJP chief Amit Shah certainly had these results in mind when he spoke of his grand plans of a BJP led regime in Srinagar. With 36 seats on the line, the BJP has to perform out of its skin and go past the 30 mark and to be in a position to dictate terms. Irrespective of May results, one needs to keep in mind that the state elections will be a different ball game altogether. The party lacks a leader who can help it do well, something that Modi did earlier this year. Moreover, the saffron outfit will have to see off the challenge posed by the likes of the Congress as well as Bhim Singh's Panther's Party (JKNPP) which have strong presence in certain pockets. The PDP too is said to have made some inroads in this part of the state.

Finally, how can one forget the third region - Ladakh. Though it may not find a place in the name of the state, it is fast emerging as one of the most visited tourist destinations in the country. With a population comprising of Muslims and Buddhists, the people here elect 4 seats to the state legislature. Probably, it is because of this that Ladakh does not have much of a say in most matters that affect Jammu Kashmir. However, that may change in case the PDP and the BJP end up winning equal or close to equal number of seats in the other two regions put together. In that scenario, the 4 seats here may decide who heads the next regime in Srinagar. In the big polls, the BJP won the seat by a margin of just 36 votes. Considering that the margin of victory was very less, it is difficult to say who has the edge in Ladakh in the forthcoming polls.


For more posts on the Jammu Kashmir 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)

MAIDAN-e-JUNG - Part I

THE RACE TO BECOME THE SINGLE LARGEST PARTY

Addressing a crowd of party leaders and workers gathered for a function where he was officially anointed as the party president, Amit Shah spoke of yet another ambitious plan - Mission 44. The man who spear headed the BJP's campaign in Uttar Pradesh and was one of the foremost architects of Narendra Modi's big win in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls now wants his party men to work for the formation of the next government in Jammu Kashmir which will see elections later this year. Considering that the saffron outfit has just 11 seats in the outgoing state assembly, it is easy to write off Shah's project as some kind of 'pep' talk to boost the morale of party cadre. However, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) sweeping the two parliamentary seats in Jammu and narrowly edging out the Congress in Ladakh, there are speculations that the saffronists may end up as the single largest party in the next assembly in spite of the fact that the numbers may not be sufficient to form the government. With the Modi wave still pretty strong, the BJP will also bank upon the development plank, the shortcomings of the Omar government and even the goodwill for former PM Vajpayee amongst the Kashmiris to get the votes.

Although there was a lot of debate centered around Article 320 prior to the big polls with many in the party advocating its removal, it will serve the BJP best if the party avoids talking about it considering the sentiments of the people in the state, especially in Kashmir. Besides, it is hopeful that the consolidation of the Hindus votes may further help it in south and east. While there is high probability that the saffron outfit may finish with the highest number of MLAs, it will be interesting to see how many seats it will get and if it can make its debut in the Valley. If the BJP can go past the 40 mark, it will need support of smaller parties and independents to form the government. However, if the saffron outfit gets about 30 to 35 seats then it will have to contemplate joining hands with the Muftis to come to power. Anything below 25 will most likely mean that the BJP would end up as the main opposition in the J&K assembly.

While Shah and his party may be on the threshold of creating history, Kashmir's first political family - the Abdullahs of the National Conference (NC) are yet to recover from the debacle of the 2014 General Elections. Fighting the polls in association with the Congress, the NC drew a blank as all three of its candidates including heavyweights - Farooq Abdullah and Mehboob Beg had to bite the dust. There were lots of expectations from young Omar Abdullah when he took oath as the 11^th Chief Minister of the northern state way back in 2008. Six years down the line, the allegations of graft and lack of development in J&K have made the incumbent CM and his outfit extremely unpopular. In what was clearly seen as a move to put the blame of the Lok Sabha disaster on its former ally, the NC has pulled out of the UPA. Besides, there are reports that all is not well within the outfit and there is a growing section within the party which feels disillusioned by the Abdullahs. For the time being, it seems that the National Conference is heading towards its biggest electoral defeat in recent times; the party will be lucky if it can even win 10 seats.

Much like its former ally, the Congress too is facing the heat here. Former state CM Ghulam Nabi Azad lost to BJP's candidate Dr. Jitendra Singh by a margin of nearly sixty thousand votes in the Udhampur parliamentary seat. In neighboring Jammu, saffron camp's Jugal Kishore Sharma registered a massive win, beating his rival from the INC by over two and a half lakh votes. The grand old party did put up a tough fight in Ladakh; its candidate Tsering Samphel lost by a margin of just 36 votes. The bottom line was clear. Like in the rest of the country, the INC had lost the confidence of the people in Jammu Kashmir too. The problems have only compounded following the divorce with the NC. Although the party will find it very difficult to even come close to its earlier figure of 17 that it got in the last state polls, its 'secular' credentials make it acceptable to both the main regional players in the country. As such, if either the NC or the PDP need some seats to cross the half way mark, the first option that they will explore is an alliance with the INC.

If there is one party that can actually give a tough fight to the BJP in the race to become the single largest party in the state assembly, it has to be the People's Democratic Party (PDP) led by former CM Mufti Mohammed Sayeed. Like the BJP in the rest of the state, the PDP won all three seats in the Kashmir region, beating the threat posed by the NC-INC combine. Now with the two former allies in the UPA parting ways, the chances of Sayeed's outfit has improved further. At the same time, we must remember that with limited presence in the state, winning a majority on its own will be quite an ask for the PDP in spite of the pathetic condition that its main adversaries in the Valley, namely the NC and the Congress find themselves in. The question though is that if need be, will the Muftis be open to an alliance with the BJP - a party which is still seen by many in the Valley as communal and harmful to the interest of Kashmiris. Allying with the Congress will be much easier, that is of course if the INC can get the required numbers. In that scenario, one needs to see if the Congress will be ready to forget Mufti's betrayal of Azad's government way back in 2008.

For more posts on the Jammu Kashmir 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)