Reels, Reforms, and Resignations

Inside India’s Gen Z Political Awakening

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In 1996, a young student activist with the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) stood outside the Odisha Secretariat in Bhubaneswar alongside nearly 1,500 angry students. The issue was teh alleged Class XII examination paper leak that threatened the futures of thousands of young aspirants. Police lathi-charged the crowd, leaving the young leader Dharmendra Pradhan with multiple fractures.

That baptism by fire catapulted Pradhan into the national political spotlight. He leveraged that grassroots image to steadily climb the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ladder, serving as the National President of the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha (BJYM) between 2004 and 2010. Over the next decade, he spearheaded key state assembly election strategies as party in-charge in Bihar in 2010 and Karnataka in 2013, before leading high-stakes election campaigns to decisive BJP victories in Uttarakhand in 2017 and Uttar Pradesh in 2022. From 2014 onward, he held crucial Union Cabinet portfolios, ranging from Petroleum and Natural Gas to Skill Development and Education.

Yet, history has an unmistakable sense of irony. On July 25, 2026, Dharmendra Pradhan tendered his resignation as Union Education Minister over recurring examination paper leaks, including the NEET-UG scandal. Life has come full circle: the student activist who once bled on the streets protesting paper leaks fell victim to a massive youth-led agitation demanding accountability for the exact same failure.

The Rise of CJP: From Social Media Satire to Parliament March

Courtesy: CJP

The agitation that brought down a Union Cabinet minister didn't originate from a traditional political party. It began with the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP).

Originally created by digital creator Abhijeet Dipke as a satirical response to insensitive remarks dismissing unemployed youth, the movement’s moniker was reclaimed by Gen Z as a badge of resilience—insects that cannot be crushed. What started as viral posts quickly transformed into a physical protest camp at Delhi's Jantar Mantar. Starting with online satire in May 2026, the movement evolved into a physical dharna at Jantar Mantar by June 2026, culminating in a hunger strike and Parliament march in July 2026.

The movement gained unstoppable momentum when renowned activist Sonam Wangchuk joined forces with CJP, launching a prolonged 26-day hunger strike demanding an institutional overhaul of India's examination bodies. As thousands of students, parents, and youth groups marched toward Parliament, facing tear gas and barricades, the government could no longer ignore the outcry. Pradhan’s resignation was the ultimate concession.

The CJP-led agitation bears striking similarities to Anna Hazare’s India Against Corruption movement in 2011. Just as Hazare’s crusade mobilized nationwide middle-class anger to dismantle the moral authority of the UPA government, the CJP harnessed youth frustration to deliver a decisive blow to the ruling NDA establishment.

Shattering the Shield of Invincibility

Photo: Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 4.0

For over a decade, the Modi-led BJP operated with an aura of political invincibility, supported by a formidable social media engine. But CJP pulled off what traditional opposition parties often struggled to do: they beat the BJP at its own game. Using humor, short-form reels, meme culture, and decentralized messaging, Gen Z completely dominated the digital narrative. They forced the government to abandon its usual playbook of radio silence or deflective messaging. From top ministers releasing video assurances to senior party leaders engaging in urgent negotiations, the administration was forced to react directly to the youth.

From the BJP's perspective, this episode reveals a growing disconnect. When a party remains in power for extended periods, complacency risks creeping in. A government that loses touch with daily realities viz rising unemployment, systemic exam irregularities, and agricultural distress, risks alienating the very demographic that fueled its rise. To rebuild public trust, symbolic resignations must be backed by real, structural fixes. The BJP under Modi has weathered several political storms in the past; will they be able to tide over this remaions to tbe seen.

The Opposition's Blueprint: A Lesson for Congress and Allies

For the Congress and regional opposition parties, CJP has provided a clear roadmap. First, it showed that sustained, organized mass mobilization forces policy reversals and executive accountability, much like the historic Farmers' Protest did. Second, it demonstrated that sporadic press conferences or single-day rallies do not sustain pressure, proving that real effort must be continuous and deeply rooted in everyday grievances. Finally, leaders like Rahul Gandhi and regional heads cannot simply react to news cycles; they must actively catch and channel the pulse of youth aspirations.

The opposition previously failed to fully capitalize on past movements once momentum slowed. They cannot afford to let this moment slip by without building a long-term vision for India’s youth.

What Lies Ahead for CJP?

The Cockroach Janta Party has proven that an independent youth collective can force a Union Minister out of office. However, the true test of leadership begins now.

Histories of popular movements are littered with examples that flared up brilliantly only to fade into obscurity. To avoid becoming another historical footnote, CJP's leaders must maintain non-partisan independence and internal unity while pivoting from demanding resignations to enforcing structural exam reforms, such as overhauling the National Testing Agency. Above all, they must continue holding power centers accountable across both national and state levels.

If this movement proved anything, it is that India’s Gen Z will not take systemic failures lying down. This is a generation often dismissed as superficial, obsessed with screen time, and distracted by viral trends. But when pushed to the edge, those same digital skills become powerful tools of political organization. They can edit reels on a phone one moment, and bring a government to its knees the next. They have high aspirations for their future—and they won't stop until those aspirations are taken seriously.

Third Place and Fractured Faith

What Lies Ahead for the AIADMK?

The political landscape of Tamil Nadu has been fundamentally rewritten. For nearly six decades, power in Fort St. George was a rhythmic pendulum swinging predictably between the DMK and the AIADMK. However, the dust has settled on the highly anticipated 2026 Tamil Nadu State Assembly elections, and the reality facing the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) is stark, bruising, and deeply humbling.

The party that once commanded absolute majorities under towering leaders has been relegated to a distant third place. Despite widespread anti-incumbency, AIADMK completely failed to dislodge the ruling DMK. Instead, the crucial anti-government vote bank bypassed the traditional opposition entirely, shifting heavily toward the charismatic newcomer — C. Joseph Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which stormed the political arena to become the single largest entity.

This isn't a sudden stroke of bad luck; the warning signs have been flashing for a while. The debacle follows a dismal performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where the AIADMK drew a complete blank in Tamil Nadu, failing to win even a single parliamentary seat and even losing its deposit in several constituencies.

A House Divided: The Current Crisis Within the Party

Today, the AIADMK resembles a fortress with crumbling walls. The leadership of Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) has come under intense scrutiny. Despite cementing his position as the singular face of the party, Palaniswami has been entirely unable to unite the various splintered factions. The bitter ousting of O. Panneerselvam (OPS) and Sasikala’s camp continues to leave a gaping wound in the party's traditional southern vote base. Worse still is the ongoing exodus of talent. Sensing stagnant water, a string of prominent, influential district-level leaders and former ministers have jumped ship, switching allegiances over to the DMK or the ruling TVK.

Compounding this internal bleeding is the party’s erratic relationship with national politics. The alliance with the BJP has turned into a chronic guessing game. The "will-they-won't-they" routine—getting together for an election, breaking apart in acrimony, and flirting again behind closed doors—has left voters confused and the core party cadres thoroughly disillusioned. With no clear ideological anchor or a unifying goal, the grassroots workers, who are the lifeblood of the AIADMK, are visibly losing faith.

Echoes of History: When Amma Rescued the Two Leaves

It is in times of such existential dread that the party must look back at its own history. This is not the first time the AIADMK has faced what looked like certain death.

When the party's legendary founder M.G. Ramachandran (MGR) passed away in 1987, the AIADMK fractured violently. It split into two camps: one led by MGR’s widow, Janaki Ramachandran, and the other by a young, fierce J. Jayalalithaa. The split allowed the DMK to comfortably cruise back into power in 1989. The AIADMK looked finished.

But history is shaped by individuals who refuse to yield. The turning point came during the infamous March 25, 1989 saree-pulling episode inside the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly. Assaulted, humiliated, and her modesty outraged on the floor of the house by DMK MLAs, a battered Jayalalithaa left the assembly hall. Before stepping out, she swore a legendary, cinematic vow: She would never step foot inside that chamber again until she returned as the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu.

What followed was a masterclass in political resilience. "Amma" realized that a divided house would only benefit their arch-rivals. Displaying immense political acumen, she successfully brought the Janaki faction back into the fold, unified the "Two Leaves" symbol, and galvanized the demoralized cadres. Just two years later, in 1991, she fulfilled her vow—sweeping the DMK away in a historic landslide victory to take oath as Chief Minister.

Can History Repeat Itself?

The AIADMK of 2026 desperately lacks that fire. The party is suffering from an absence of emotional connect, strategic clarity, and a leader who can command the unquestioned loyalty of the masses the way Jayalalithaa or MGR did.

Coming third in a state you once ruled with an iron fist is an existential wake-up call. If the AIADMK is to survive this new three-way political paradigm in Tamil Nadu, it cannot rely merely on past laurels or anti-DMK rhetoric. It needs an immediate internal overhaul, a genuine effort to bring alienated factions back together, and a clear, independent vision that re-ignites faith in its grassroots cadre.

Jayalalithaa showed that the phoenix can always rise from the ashes. The question is: does the current leadership have the grit to light the spark?

A PLAN FOR REVIVAL

A FIVE POINT AGENDA FOR RESURRECTION OF THE CONGRESS

The much hyped Congress Working Committee (CWC) meeting scheduled for today ended on a rather familiar note with 'interim' President Sonia Gandhi agreeing to hang on to the top post for six more months. Sparks began to fly late last evening as 23 prominent Congressmen in a letter addressed to the former NAC Chairperson, raised pertinent questions on the lack of visible leadership within the grand old party. Even as Gandhi sycophants stepped in to defend the INC's first family against this unexpected onslaught, former President Rahul Gandhi decided to take the 'dissenters' head on, and as per ANI sources, accused them of 'colluding with the BJP'. Moments later, former minister Kapil Sibal who was one of the signatories to the letter put out a sarcastic tweet hitting back at the Waynad MP. Another prominent 'dissenter', former External Affairs minister Ghulam Nabi Azad threatened to resign if Rahul could prove his charges. Clearly stung by these attacks, Rahul denied making the remark as loyalists including former PM Manmohan Singh, former Defence Minister A K Anthony et all convinced the aging Sonia to stay on.

Though I am no fan of either the Congress or the Gandhis, it is important that the party somehow puts its house in order as soon as possible. For a vibrant democracy, a robust Opposition that takes on the Government on its policies and stands by it during times of national crisis is an absolute must. The Congress has failed so far, on both these fronts. Somehow, the INC has not yet recovered from the jolt of May 2014 and over the years, the abysmal state of affairs within the outfit only continues to worsen. This has further added to the aura of invincibility surrounding the BJP led by the powerful Modi-Shah duo. Even otherwise, the Congress is the inheritor of a rich legacy, having been one of the many prominent players in the national movement. While it is true that the INC of the freedom struggle is a far cry from the INC of today, we must also acknowledge that it is this organization that gave us some of our greatest founding fathers including Nehru, Patel, Bose and the Mahatma. With no full time leader, almost zero inter-party democracy and an outdated ideology, it is highly unlikely that the INC is going to witness a change in political fortunes anytime soon. Even as India's most successful political party struggles to find panacea for the many problems it faces, here is my five point agenda for a possible Congress revival.

(1) A full time President, preferably Rahul Gandhi: For years now, the Congress' longest serving President Sonia Gandhi has not been keeping well. Considering that the Amethi MP is under medication, it is mind-boggling that she is forced to stay on at the helm of affairs in the INC, in spite of the fact that she has offered to step down on multiple occasions. The logic behind this seems to be the fact that the grand old party needs a Gandhi to run the show smoothly. The family is apparently the glue that holds the many factions within the party together. With Sonia needing a break and Priyanka shifting focus to UP, it is imperative that the party leaders convince the 'reluctant Crown Prince' to take back the reins of the Congress. Will this move succeed? I am not sure; Rahul Gandhi's lack luster report card does not inspire confidence either. However, this move will at least clear the leadership mess and set in a clear hierarchy with the Congress. As and when that happens, the Waynad MP must usher in a set of reforms to empower Youth Congress organizations and promote internal democracy, topics which he has spoken about in the past but which, in pure Rahulesque fashion were not followed up during his first tenure.

(2) A clear Ideology: In what can be described as the most passionate speech in his political career so far, Rahul Gandhi while speaking at the AICC in January 2013 described the Congress as follows: 'Congress Party ek soch hain aur yeah soch hum sabke dil mein hain'. It is time that the young Gandhi scion articulated what this soch (idea) is and what it stands for. For decades, the INC has been seen as a Centrist, pro-Socialist, Secular party though not all of its policies have been in accordance to these lofty ideals. The aggressive pro-Hindutva stance of the BJP and its consecutive victories since 2014 seem to have left a deep impact on the grand old party, forcing it to project itself a much softer Hindutav party. It was in the wake of this that Rahul went temple hoping prior to UP 2017 polls and described himself as a 'Janayu-dhari Shiv Bhakt'. Multiple flip flops, especially on issues of national importance like surgical strikes and the building of the Ram Mandir have given more fodder for the BJP to project its nemesis as weak and rudderless. Even as traditional vote banks including Dalits, women and tribals seem to be gravitating to the saffron outfit, the party is fast losing its ground even in its former strongholds like Maharasthra, Andhra-Telangana and North East. There is an urgent need for the Congress to reflect upon what is the 'idea of India' that it arrogates to itself and claims to be fighting for every now and then. It needs an ideology that a young, inspirational India of the 21st century can connect with.

(3) Promoting Regional Leaders: During the decade since its defeat at the hands of the UPA in 2004, it was state leaders like Narendra Modi, Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh who kept the saffron flag flying in the heartland even as the party faced an existential crisis at the national level. In fact, in what was a tribute to the BJP's culture of nurturing dynamic regional satraps, it was the Gujarat CM who brought it to power at the Center after 10 years of warming the Opposition benches. In sharp contrast, it has been the Congress policy since the days of Indira Gandhi to cut wings of ambitious state chieftains in a bid to enforce the power of the High Command. Nine out of ten Congress CMs are Gandhi loyalists who pose no threat to the power and prestige of the first family. Evidently, this culture has back fired. While the Congress tries to fix the mess in the national leadership, the need of the hour is to take on the BJP at the state level. The appointment of Priyanka Gandhi as the AICC in-charge of eastern UP and the elevation of PAAS leader Hardik Patel in Gujarat and strategist D K Shiv Kumar in Karnataka are steps in the right direction. Incumbent CMs like Captain Amarinder Singh (Punjab), Bhupesh Baghel (Chattisgarh) and Ashok Gehlot (Rajasthan) need to be given full backing of the top brass amd more responsibility in framing the future direction of the INC.

(4) Bridging the Young-Old Divide: For a decade that the UPA was in power, the right mix of dynamic youngsters owing allegiance to Rahul Gandhi and a section of experienced loyalists believed to be close to Sonia was seen as the secret for the success of the Congress. As the old timers grabbed the plum ministries, the youngsters seemed to be contend with donning the hat of MoS. Cut to present and the rebellions of Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot paints a sad picture of a party that is imploding from within thanks to the frictions between the pro-Rahul and pro-Sonia camps. While Sachin was convinced to stay back, the grand old party has already lost some of its most promising young Turks including Scindia Jr., Hemanta Biswas Sarma, Pradyot Manikya Debbarma and Ajoy Kumar. Several other next gen leaders like Milind Deora, Sanjay Nirupam, Navjyot Singh Sidhu and Naveen Jindal are reportedly unhappy with being left out from the scheme of things within the Congress. The INC needs to think how it can manage its demographic divide and reap rich dividends out of it.

(5) Getting more Allies on board: Last but not the least, the INC needs to work towards broadening the UPA by getting more parties on board in its fight against the BJP led NDA. A formal alliance with the Left Front at least in Kerala for the national elections will make sure 20 seats are kept out of reach of the saffron outfit. Similarly, other anti-BJP parites like Mamta Bannerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC), Kejriwal's Aam Admi Party (AAP) and HDK's Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) will only improve its tally. However, for the broadening of UPA, the INC should be ready to make sacrifices; it has already shown that it is ready for this by tying up with the Shiv Sena in Maharasthra and allowing Kumarswamy to become the CM in Karnataka in spite of winning less than 40 seats in the 220 odd strong state legislative assembly. However, more would be needed in the days to come for the Congress to reclaim its long lost pre-eminent position in Indian politics.

2016: THE STAKES ARE HIGH

The year 2015 has been one to forget for the saffron outfit; after being routed in the Delhi state polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was further embarrassed in Bihar later in the year when the NDA was convincing beaten by the grand opposition led by bitter rival Nitish Kumar. Rising prices, the 'intolerance' debate and failure of the government to bring in the much anticipated reforms has meant that the aura of invincibility surrounding the BJP and the Prime Minister has been busted; the much hyped Modi wave seems to have vanished and Amit Shah's political acumen seems to have deserted him completely.

Probably, the only saving grace for the party is that the popularity of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to remain high. However, as the Delhi and Bihar polls have shown, it cannot solely depend on the PM to win them the elections in the states. Amongst the five states that are scheduled to go to the polls in 2016, Assam is one where the BJP will fancy its chances in the wake of rising anti-incumbency against the Tarun Gogoi government. It remains to be seen what strategy the party applies in Tamil Nadu and neighboring Pondicherry. Will it revive the NDA in Tamil region and fight the polls with Vijaykant's MDMK or abandon its front and ally with the Jayalalithaa? Moreover, it remains to be seen if the BJP can finally break its jinx and make its debut in Kerala. Also, the party will hope to improve its share in Bengal.

For the Congress, this year has been a mixed bag. The year started on a bad note with the grand old party being wiped out from the capital. However, the victory of the grand alliance of which the INC was a part of in Bihar did bring in a lot of cheers. More importantly, a big hurray for the party is that its Vice President Rahul Gandhi seems to be taking charge of the affairs of late. The party's strategy to stall Parliament has worked till now but then it must make sure that it does not over do it.

Looking forward to 2016, the Congress is still to regain its lost political pride which can only be restored by a famous win in the electoral arena. Probably, from the INC's perspective, the only state where it has a chance to register a big electoral win is Kerala where it is in power. Considering the present political conditions, it is unlikely that the party can win a fourth straight win in Assam in the wake of rebellion within its ranks. Allying with the DMK is the only option to do well in Tamil Nadu whereas Bengal will be a lost cause, unless the INC makes up with the TMC.

Compared to the two national parties, perhaps the upcoming year is the most important for the Left Front as two of the three states where it has a significant presence go to the polls. And to be frank, the situation does not seem to be particularly good. In its former bastion of Bengal, the TMC is all set to retain its hold in Kolkata thanks to the inability of the Communists to put up a spirited fight. The fight in Kerala seems to be a really tight one with the Congress going all out to keep the Left Front at bay.

Finally, the stakes are high for the regional players too. Jayalalithaa who was believed to be comfortably placed to win a consecutive term is now facing the heat, especially after the deluge in Chennai and Cuddalore. The only saving grace for her is that the DMK is ridden with internal strife and the taint surrounding the alleged involvement of some of its top leaders in the 2G scam is yet to go. In the east, Mamta Bannerjee though is in a much better position, thanks to an inefficient opposition and her goons.

BIHAR 2015: THE VERDICT

BJP SWEPT AWAY AS LALU HELPS NITISH EARN A HAT-TRICK

Though many were expecting Bihar to be a close contest after a bitterly fought campaign, with leader from both camps often indulging in 'inappropriate' language and even going below the belt on some occasions, the people of India's third most populous state have delivered a resounding verdict, choosing the 'Mahaghatbandhan' led by by their incumbent CM Nitish Kumar over PM Narendra Modi's NDA. In many ways, it was a fairy tale come back for the JD-U chief; after a series of blunders that threatened to jeopardize his political career altogether, he has 'risen' from the ashes, beating the PM with whom, he has had some scores to settle with. While Kumar is all set to retain the chair of the CM, the 'Man of the Series' is certainly Lalu Prasad Yadav. The former Bihar CM who was once Nitish's staunchest rival is in my opinion, one of the biggest factors responsible for the 'grand' victory of the mega alliance. For the BJP and its allies though, the results have been crushing; saying that the NDA 'lost' the polls would be a massive under statement since they have been 'routed' with the regional front winning thrice as many seats as the BJP led coalition.

The highlight of the Bihar state polls 2015 for me has been the manner in which Nitish, Lalu and most importantly, the cadre of the two parties have resolved the bitter differences that existed amongst them in the past and literally blown away the BJP and its allies. While there is no doubt that this was an alliance to retain their political significance, the JD-U chief and the RJD supremo must be credited for sticking together in spite of varying styles of functioning and reaching consensus on all important issues including the post of CM, seat sharing arrangement, campaign strategy et all. Though there were some murmurs of dissent within their ranks initially, the cadre too seem to have worked. Remarkably, the regional front even managed to transfer their respective vote banks to candidates of the alliance across the state. The electoral campaign of the grand alliance was pretty simple. While the soft-spoken Nitish Kumar harped on the development bandwagon, the more 'brash' Lalu took on the hard line, hitting out at the PM and his aide Amit Shah at regular intervals. Of course, the many blunders from the saffron camp including the failure to project a local leader, the beef controversy and the 'unwarranted' statements regarding reservations made by the RSS chief only gave more ammunition to the regional players.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) finished as the single largest party in the state assembly, winning 80 of the 101 seats it contested, its best tally in over a decade. The Janata Dal - United (JD-U) finished with a tally of 71 whereas the Congress seems to have been a big beneficiary of the verdict. The INC won nearly 70% of the total seats it contested.

For the BJP, its dream of a saffron government in Patna was crashed after its alliance finished with a paltry tally of 58 seats. The fact remains that in spite of the NDA's superlative performance in the 2014 General Elections, the saffron outfit was always the 'underdog' considering that the two regional parties had joined hands to counter it. The BJP tried to counter this by roping in the PM to address over 30 rallies in the state and roping in JD-U rebel and former CM Manjhi with an eye on the Extremely Backward Class votes. However, a spate of errors on its part, some of which I have already recounted above cost it dearly. Some of the leaders of the party or belonging to its affiliates only made the matters worse by raking up communal and casteist sentiments further strengthening the anti-NDA votes. Spoilers like the AIMIM, the SP and the NCP failed to make any considerable dent in the Opposition's tally. Moreover, Nitish's record as a 'capable' CM and the lack of any substantial anti-incumbency on the ground meant that the BJP was wiped off Bihar.

The charts displayed here are created using the free online tool - ChartGo (Link).

WILL CHANKYA'S NEETI WORK?

NITISH LED 'SECULAR' FRONT TO TAKE ON THE MODI BRIGADE

The JD-U supremo Nitish Kumar who is dubbed by several political analysts as the modern day 'Chanakya' of the Indian political spectrum, pulled off another major political coup earlier this week when his name was declared as the official chief ministerial nominee of the newly formed and 'loosely knit' Janata Parivaar (JP) for the upcoming Bihar polls. With the war of words between the leaders of the state's top two regional parties - the JD-U and the RJD escalating over the past two months, the announcement made by the Janata Parivaar's de-facto chief Mulayum Singh Yadav ended weeks of speculations of a possible break down in the anti-BJP plank even before the elections. In what seemed to be a well choreographed affair, the name of Nitish as the face of the alliance was proposed by none other than his friend turned foe turned friend - Lalu Yadav.

Check Mating Lalu: Like Kautaliya who crafted the downfall of the much powerful Nanda Empire by training his protégé Chandragupta Maurya in the fourth century BC, the incumbent CM too played his cards well in the race to be the 'face' of the grand alliance. Having deposed his self-appointed successor Jitam Ram Manjhi from the helm of affairs after the latter refused to be a mere puppet, Nitish knew very well that the move could hurt him electorally with a section of the influential Maha-Dalit community refusing to back him for having mistreated their leader. Moreover, the lessons of the September 2014 by-polls were not lost on him; for halting the Modi juggernaut it was essential to keep the mega coalition together. At the same time though, to salvage lost pride and to maintain political relevance, it was equally important for him to lead it. With Lalu in the equation and the bitter animosity between the two leaders since the mid 90s being a stuff of legends, this was not going to be easy. Though the RJD chief has been barred from contesting elections after being convicted in the Fodder Scam, he was, or rather he still is, not very keen to fight the polls under the leadership of his one time rival. The Yadav strong man is a master in the art of dirty politics and side lining him was going to be a herculean task within itself.

This is exactly where Nitish displayed his political acumen; fully aware that the Congress, in spite of its moribund state of affairs in Bihar would still play a decisive role in deciding the CM candidate of the coalition, the JD-U chief had a special audience with Rahul Gandhi on a visit to Delhi. It is believed that the Congress Vice President, unlike his mother does not have a good opinion of the RJD chief. On the other hand, he has been vocal about his admiration of Nitish. One can recollect several instances wherein the junior Gandhi had praised the Bihar CM for his secular credentials even while he was an integral part of the NDA. In fact, this move was a master stroke; soon after the meeting, reports from the Congress camp suggested that INC would align with the JD-U irrespective of whether Lalu was with it or not. With the Gandhis turning their back on Lalu, the path was more or less clear for Kumar to head the anti-BJP plank. Moreover, Nitish's image as the man who transformed Bihar from Lalu's 'Jungle Raj' to one of the fastest growing states in India only further strengthened his prospects for the top post. As such, as the leaders of the Janata Parivaar met to discuss the course of action for the polls, the odds were comprehensively stacked in the favor of Nitish, forcing the wily Lalu to eat the humble pie.

The Nitish v/s Modi saga continues: With Kumar leading the mega coalition, the second part of the Modi - Nitish rivalry is all set to be played in the state of Bihar this winter. After walking out of the NDA over the candidature of the then Gujarat CM as the NDA candidate for the post of the Prime Minister, the Bihar CM was left with a bloody nose as Modi mania swept Bihar in May 2014, relegating the JD-U to a ignominious tally of two parliamentary seats. In a bid to save his face, Kumar resigned and handed power to his hand picked successor Jitin Ram Manjhi to appease the Maha Dalit community which voted for the BJP in the General Elections. In the mean time, following the realignment of the political forces in Bihar, Nitish and his new found allies - the RJD and the Congress managed to edge past the BJP by winning 6 of the 10 seats that went for the by-polls, a consolation victory of sorts. Ironically though, months later, as Manjhi transformed from a 'docile' leader into a 'clever' politician refusing to be 'controlled' by his party boss, Nitish expelled him from the JD-U and was himself back as the Bihar CM for the third time. With back to back political blunders, many were wondering if Nitish's astute acumen has deserted him and if his reign as Bihar's most powerful leader were numbered. And the man behind Nitish's unraveling was none other than his bete noire - Narendra Modi.

The Bihar polls is the perfect platform for Bihar CM to settle scores with the PM. A victory for the Janata Parivaar would be a jolt to the Modi bandwagon which hit a major road block when the AAP decimated the saffron party in Delhi earlier this year. A win would help Nitish regain most of the political pride that he had lost in the last two years and would re-establish him as a force to reckon with besides being a major fillip to the merger of the factions of the JP. However, there is a much bigger prize to be won, something that most political analysts have over looked thus far; after the General Polls, there is no 'credible' face to represent the anti-Modi or the non-NDA parties in the political sphere. The most obvious and legitimate choice to fill in this vacancy - Sonia Gandhi is not keeping well whereas the negativity still surrounding Rahul means that most believe that he is not yet 'mature' enough for the job. Regional satraps like Jayalalithaa and Patnaik who managed to fend off the Modi wave in their respective home turfs have been on cordial terms with the new government. Mamata Bannerjee has of late mellowed her anti-Modi rhetoric. The mess around AAP in the recent months has hit Arvind Kejriwal's popularity; the party's influence has not moved beyond the NCR in spite of that fabulous victory in February. A victory for the JP under Nitish would automatically catapult him to being the new anti-Modi face in Indian politics.

The Ground Realities: Though the coalition may have been announced, it remains to be seen how the talks regarding the seat sharing arrangements between the many constituents of this grand alliance progress in the coming weeks. Though the issue of the CM candidate has been settled for now, the basis for seat allocation has become another pain point for the two parties. The RJD wants the 2014 General Elections to be the basis to arrive at the seat sharing formula whereas the JD-U wants it to be the 2010 state polls. A bigger worry for the leaders of the alliance is whether their cadre and workers at the ground level are able to forget all the past differences and work together as a team. Considering the 'hatred' that the JD-U and the RJD have shared in the past, that seems to be a near impossible task. And lastly, will the alliance be able to break the caste barrier? For example, will a Yadav who has a loyal voter of the RJD for decades now vote for a JD-U nominee contesting as a candidate of the JP from his seat? Considering that the Yadavs harbour a special dislike for Kumar for ending their political dominance in Bihar, will they be comfortable with him as the CM candidate? Moreover, it remains to be seen how much damage will the Manjhi mishap cost in terms of the Extremely Backward Caste (EBC) votes. Surely, the modern day 'Chanakya' will have to put in all the 'Neeti' and perhaps, even some 'Kutneeti' to score a memorable hat-trick! 

AMMA RETURNS

AIADMK SUPREMO IS BACK WITH A BANG

Much to the chagrin of her enemies, AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa who was given a clean chit by the Karnataka High Court in the disproportionate asset case couple of weeks ago is back, 'officially' the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu for the fifth time. After being convicted in the case and given a jail sentence for four years in September 2014, the regional satrap who swept to power in the last state polls had stepped down and entrusted the responsibility of the state to here confidante O Paneerselvam. Since then, she had maintained a rather low profile, refusing to make public appearances and this meant that most public projects were struck up since the 'Iron Lady' was not there to inaugurate them. Although this may sound hilarious for most of us, people following Dravidian politics will certainly not be surprised. After all, politics down south is as dramatic as the local cinema and most of the successful Tamil politicians including Jaya have their roots in the film industry.

With the AIADMK chief back at the helm of affairs, the prospects of her party in the state elections scheduled for the next year have blossomed overnight. After successive victories, first in the 2011 polls and then in the 2014 General Elections, the Amma Express was on a roll. The many freebies and welfare schemes launched during her tenure were paying off. Its primary opposition in the state - the DMK was battling allegations of corruption and the fight within its first family was only intensifying with each passing day. Just when everything seemed to be going right for Jaya and her followers, the ruling of the Karnataka HC came as a massive jolt, threatening to cut short her political ambitions for the time being. However, much to her relief, the recent ruling, acquitting her and three others of all allegations of wrong-doing during her previous tenure have only enhanced the 'aura' of invincibility surrounding her. Speaking after the verdict she said that she has come out of the 'ordeal' like pure gold; in fact, many believed that Jaya could even consider snap polls, trying to en-cash on the sympathy wave following her acquittal.

From the perspective of the AIADMK, the decision is a big fillip before it kick starts its campaign for the 2016 polls. The return of Amma as the CM of Tamil Nadu is set to herald in a new set of reforms as well as public welfare scheme - read 'freebies', aimed at consolidating her voter base that has stood firmly with her for some time now. Many schemes like the Chennai Metro which has been completed but not yet made operational, apparently since Jaya was not there to inaugurate it are likely to be opened for the public. Though state politics may be her primary concern as of now, the AIADMK is expected to now play a more proactive role in the Lok Sabha too where it is the third largest party with 37 members. Besides, its 11 members in the Rajya Sabha too could be actively wooed, both by the government and the various opposing blocks considering that many of the Bills could be stuck up in this house.

While one witnessed scenes of ecstatic celebrations in the AIADMK camp, a wave of gloom has set upon the DMK. Though Karuna tried to take a 'principled' stand saying that the 'court of conscience' was above all other courts, it is clear that his party's attempt to use this issue to script a revival has gone down the drain. The numerous problems plaguing the DMK just seem to be piling one after another. As if successive defeats were not enough, the fight between Stalin and Azaghiri that led to the ouster of the latter from the party has severely weakened its ranks. The allegations of graft against some of its prominent leaders including Karuna's daughter Kanimozhi, his nephew Dayanidhi Maran and former Telecom Minister A Raja has tarnished the party's image to a large extent. In the present context, it will take more than a miracle for Karuna and the DMK to prevent Jaya from winning a straight second term.

Although it was BJP leader Subramanian Swamy who had filed the case against the Tamil Nadu CM nearly two decades ago, Jaya's acquittal is likely to bring cheers to the saffron outfit. It is a well known fact that the PM and Jaya share a good personal rapport. After the verdict, Modi is believed to have called up Amma and congratulated her. With the AIADMK chief coming out clean from all the allegations levied against her, it makes it much easier for the BJP to work with her party. Since the NDA lacks the numbers in the Upper House, the saffronists would now try to strike some sort of a working deal, if not a partnership between the two political parties to check mate their enemies.

For the Congress though, the case could give it the leverage it needs to stage a comeback down south or at least try to get back some of the space that it has conceded to others. The local party unit is in tatters and unless it manages to make up with its former ally - the DMK which is unlikely, it will find it extremely difficult to even cross the two digit mark in the next state polls. But then, as fate would have it, the Congress is all set to play a key role in the Jaya saga which is far from over. After all, it is in power in Karnataka and it is up to the Siddaramaiah government to file a review petition in the Supreme Court against the HC verdict. In that scenario, the Tamil Nadu CM could be in for some problems in the near future. More importantly, the move will perhaps be the first step in the renewal of ties between the INC and the DMK which has been left red-faced after dropping of the charges against Jayalalithaa. However, the move could boomerang too since this may translate into more closer ties between the BJP and the AIADMK which will be a win-win situation for both.

With the party being relegated to a 'pariah' and regional satraps largely ostracizing it, the Congress rarely gets a chance to play a decisive role in politics nowadays. However, in the Jaya disproportionate asset case, it is the INC that holds the cards. The party leaders need to evaluate all the angles and come up with an action plan that can help it turn the tide in its favor. Whatever the party's government in Karnataka does, the implications of that decision will not only impact Tamil politics but will resonate in the National Parliament.

RAHUL VERSION 2.0

WHAT RAGA NEEDS TO DO TO REVIVE HIS CAREER & THE CONGRESS

After abandoning the Congress party for a good 57 days, the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi family - Rahul Gandhi made a grand return to the country couple of weeks back. Ever since his sojourn, he seems to be a changed man; much to the delight of the Congress leaders and supporters, he has been making the right kind of noises and attacking the Modi government on a wide range of issues. Be it standing up for the farmers against the Land Bill or speaking up for Net Neutrality in the Parliament or meeting home buyers in the NCR and raising their concerns over the amendments made to the Real Estate Bill, the MP from Amethi is slowly building up a strong front against the policies of the NDA government which has hardly delivered on any of the numerous tall promises it made during its election campaign.

Though I have been a critic of Rahul and his style of politics for long, I have been pretty impressed by Rahul - version 2.0 and whatever I have seen of it so far. With the 'honeymoon period' for the Modi government coming to an end, the failure of the incumbent regime to bring in the 'Aache Din' and the ignominious defeat faced by the BJP at the hands of the AAP in the Delhi polls, the Congress Vice President has upped the ante and is leading the much delayed Congress fight back from the front. His actions in mobilizing a united front consisting of farmers, the middle class and the youth to take on the NDA government in the past two weeks has taken most of us, be it political analysts or the common man, by surprise. Move over RTI and Women Empowerment, in his brand new avtaar Rahul Gandhi, like so many of the illustrious Congress leaders of the past is connecting with the people on the ground and engaging with the karya-kartas at the lowest levels to check mate the BJP lead national government in New Delhi.

Rahul's comeback has evoked contrasting response from various factions within the political circles of the country; naturally enough, the Congress has hailed this as a game-changer, the regional satraps are treading a cautious line, the media has termed it as a 'revelation' whereas the BJP sees this as just another attempt to relaunch the Gandhi's scion 'failing' political career. In my opinion, a more mature Gandhi junior is good news for our democracy. After all, he is all set to become the President of the largest Opposition party in the coming weeks. A strong, well-informed leader at the helm of affairs in the INC will keep PM Modi and his colleagues in the cabinet on the tenterhooks. At a time when many are scared that the fringe groups within the Sangh Parivaar may derail the government's development agenda, an Opposition led by a level headed Rahul may help check their excesses and raise the issue that are actually affecting the people.

This is certainly not the first time that the Amethi MP has burst out on the national scene all of a sudden. Be it speaking on behalf of Kalavati in the Parliament during the debate on the Indo-US Nuclear Deal or tearing off the ordinance protecting parliamentarians from arrest, Rahul has made waves in the past too. However, the problem with him seems to be that he fails in sustaining the enthusiasm surrounding him. The reluctant politician in him seems to arise every time one thinks that he is going to break out from the shackles and make a permanent space for himself in the political arena. Perhaps, he can take a leaf out of the book of his namesake - 'Mr Consistent' Rahul Dravid. Besides, here are a few more things that he can do so that the people of the country take him more seriously.

They say that a man is known by the company he keeps. The first thing that Rahul has to do is that he needs to do away with 'incompetent' advisors who have done more damage to his political career so far than good; people like Digvijaya Singh and Madhusudan Mistri need to go. The junior Gandhi has to surround himself with a coterie of people who have sharp political acumen and are aware of the aspiration of the electorate in different parts of the country. Moreover, there is a need to have state level leaders too in this committee who can help him take the right decisions. The more diverse and more competent this core group, the more returns it will yield for Rahul and his party.

Raising the right issues at the right time is an art that makes a successful politicians and this is something that the Amethi MP needs to master as soon as possible. As of now, he has done very well. The trip to Punjab to meet the farmers was a good move considering that the state goes for polls in 2017 and that there is simmering anti-incumbency against the Badals there. Speaking up for neutrality of the Internet has surely won him admirers amongst the youth, a constituency that had stood behind Modi during the 2014 General Elections. The meeting with the flat buyers and his opposition to the Real Estate Bill in Delhi will help in wooing the middle class, another section that had gravitated towards the BJP till some time back. It is imperative that Rahul keeps pilling on more pressure on the government at regular intervals.

Thirdly, the Congress Vice President has to be more accessible. The party workers on the ground have long complained that it is very difficult to get an audience with him. Rahul's absence on the social media, his minimal media interactions and his absence from the Parliament during the times of important debates only adds to the negative publicity surrounding him. It is high time that Rahul finally sheds this tag of being aloof from the realities on the ground. An account on Facebook and Twitter are long over due; considering that this is a good platform for connecting with the youth, the Amethi MP needs to make his debut on the social media as soon as possible. He has to address more press conferences and speak more often in the Parliament so that his views on issues of national importance are well known.

Next and more importantly, there is an immediate need to revive the Congress which seems to be moribund at the moment. After being reduced to 44 seats, the least in its history, the INC needs a complete reform. Earlier, Rahul has spoken about his ideas to reform the Congress by initiating schemes like holding primaries to select party candidates and decentralizing power by empowering state leaders. However, none of these ideas actually took off in the right spirit. The recent spate of electoral defeats that the party suffered in the past two years only has made the matters worse. The urgent need of the hour is for Rahul to take control of the party and infuse some enthusiasm amongst the party workers. As the morale of the workers will boost, the prospects of the INC too will brighten, thereby helping it regain lost ground.

Last and in no way the least, Gandhi needs to make some working arrangements with leaders of non-NDA parties in the Parliament so that pressure can be built up on the Modi regime. TO begin with, the Amethi MP has to improve the co-ordination between the various parties that are still within the UPA. The Bihar by-polls has shown that the only way to combat the BJP is to form newer, innovative alliances cutting across traditional political barriers. In this aspect, the relaunched Janata Parivaar is a strong anti-Modi Front and Gandhi has to work more closely with the likes of Mulayum, Lalu and Nitish so that they can take on the NDA in the Parliament. The Left parties have always stood against the BJP and befriending Karat & Co. should not be difficult. Regional players like Mamata, Mayawati, Chandrashekar Rao and Karunanidhi can be cajoled into forming alliances with the Congress for the state polls. Certainly, Rahul Gandhi's political success in the near future could depend on how many friends he can win in the next few months.

ONE BIG, HAPPY FAMILY?

WILL THE REGIONAL BRIGADE SURVIVE

Janata Parivar 

Could this be 'Avengers' moment of Indian politics? Much like the movie series wherein several superheroes from the Marvel Comic world come together with the noble aim of saving the world from evil forces, last week, heads of six regional parties who are no less than 'superheroes' in the eyes of their followers joined hands to resurrect the erstwhile Janata Parivar, decades after the party splintered into numerous factions on account of personal rivalry, jealousy and ego hassles between its leadership. Of course, while they may claim that the reason for their coming together is to stop the rise of the 'Fascist' forces (read BJP), there is no doubt that the satraps, who played a key role in the formation of successive regimes in the Coalition Era are fighting for their political survival after being jolted in the General Elections 2014 when the Modi wave broke the traditional barriers of caste and region, something that these leaders and their parties usually thrive upon.

Whatever may be the reason for this realignment of political forces on the political spectrum, what is certain is that merger of the six outfits - the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Janata Dal - United (JD-U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Janata Dal - Secular (JD-S), the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Samajwadi Janata Party (SJP) is all set to have major implications in the years to come, provided these factions stay together which in itself is going to be an herculean task. Though the modalities are being worked upon by a six member committee, former Uttar Pradesh CM and SP supremo Mulayum Singh Yadav has been named as the chief of the Janata Party in its new avtaar.

From the outside, the merger might not sound as 'such a big deal'. After all, the six parties together have 15 MPs in the Lower House of the Parliament and are in no position to stall reforms or counter the government that has a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha. Most of these old warhorses are in the twilight of their political careers with a majority of them being a mere shadow of what they were in their heyday. Besides, the three regional players who withstood the Modi juggernaut namely Jayalalithaa of the AIADMK, Mamata Bannerjee of the TMC and Navin Patnaik of the BJD have kept a safe distance from this new political entity. Thus the influence of the new look Janata Parivar is restricted to UP and Bihar apart from marginal presence in Haryana and Karnataka.

While the regional satraps may still be licking the wounds that they suffered in the May 2014 polls, writing off the new front would be a foolish decision. With the Modi government yet to fulfill most of the promises it made to the public during the course of the electoral campaign, the merger could help consolidate the anti-Modi or anti-BJP vote bank. Considering that many of these leaders including Mulayum Singh, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav have a solid Dalit - Muslim support base, the new front is all set to give tough electoral challenge to a new resurgent BJP ahead of the prestigious Bihar polls which is scheduled later this year. In fact, even in the by-polls held in Bihar and UP last year, the regional parties put up a formidable show against the saffron camp. Buoyed by these results and keen to regain lost ground, the merger will help strengthen the Opposition benches which looks scattered for the time being. Additionally, the party now has 30 MPs in the Rajya Sabha which is nearly half the number that the NDA has as of now, making it a force to reckon with in the Upper House.

The success of the Janata Parivar and its future will largely depend on the results of the Bihar Polls. A victory for the front will be a mega boost for the leadership and will completely stop the Modi bandwagon which received a jolt in the Delhi elections. In that scenario, more regional players would be keen in joining hands with the party either by the way of merger or alliance. The Congress and the Left parties who too are in no situation to take on the BJP at present would be interested in dealing with the Mualyum led party. On the other hand, a defeat at the hands of the BJP though could well bring down the curtains on the Parivar, months after it was formed.

The real threat for the JP is from within; will the Yadavs, the Kumars and the Chautalas bury their bitter past and move on, rather move on as a team? Can Mulayum whose hopes of becoming the PM were dashed by Lalu, ever be able to trust the latter? Can Lalu and Nitish ever be friends? After all, they would call each other all sorts of names till about an year ago, isn't it? Though we do not have any concrete answers to any of questions, what we can be sure of is that the revival of the Janata Parivar has only made Indian politics in general and Bihar polls in particular more interesting.

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part VII

THE BIG WINNERS AND LOSERS

It is but imperative that we start this post by lauding the efforts of the Chief Electoral Officer of Delhi Chandra Bhushan Kumar, his entire team and the security forces in making sure that the whole voting process went on smoothly. In spite of the fact that Delhites were voting for the third time in last 14 months, they came out in record numbers to exercise their democratic right. The voting percentage was a little over 67 much more than that seen during the Lok Sabha polls which shows that we Indians have still not lost faith in the political system.

With the AAP having swept the polls, winning a staggering 67 of the 70 seats, it is but natural that all of its top guns have won their respective constituencies. Leading the list of the big winners is the party chief Arvind Kejriwal who retained the prestigious New Delhi seat by a mrgin of over 31,000 votes beating Nupur Sharma of the BJP and Kiran Walia of the Congress. His close aide and former state cabinet minister Manish Sissodia too was successful from Patparganj where he beat his former colleague Vinod Kumar Binny who was fighting on a BJP ticket. Meanwhile, former ministers Somnath Bharati and Rakhi Bildan who were in the news for all the wrong reasons during the AAP's 49 day regime emerged victorious from Malviya Nagar and Mangol Puri respectively.

Other prominent winners from the AAP include former ministers - Satyendra Kumar Jain (Shakur Basti), Saurabh Bharadwaj (Greater Kailash) and Girish Soni (Madipur) and former Congress leader Alka Lamba (Chandini Chowk).

Considering that only three BJP candidates were able to tide over the AAP tsunami, they deserve to be in the list of the winners. These include Om Prakash Sharma (Vishwas Nagar), Vijendra Kumar (Rohini) and Jagdish Pradhan (Mustafabad).

The casualties in the saffron camp were many. Perhaps, the biggest amongst them was the party's CM candidate Kiran Bedi herself who lost from Krishna Nagar which is believed to be a BJP strong hold since it has been nurtured by former state party leader and Union Minister Dr. Harshavardhan. She was beaten by AAP candidate S K Bagga by a margin of over 2,400 votes. Another well known state leader Prof. Jagdish Mukki had to bite the dust from Janakpuri as he lost out to his rival Rajesh Rishi by over 25,00 votes. Meanwhile, former AAP leaders who had joined the BJP ahead of the polls including former Speaker M S Dhir (Jangapura) and Vinod Kumar Binny (Patparganj) too were beaten. Similarly, former Union Minister Krishna Tirath who had jumped to the saffron camp from the Congress lost from the Patel Nagar constituency. Also, former DU president Nupur Sharma who was pitted against AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal lost by over 30,000 votes.

For the Congress, its campaign chief Ajay Maken lost his deposit from Sardar Bazaar having been beaten by AAP's Som Dutt who polled over 67,000 votes. Like him, former Child and Women Welfare Minister Dr. Kiran Walia lost to the AAP chief having got just over 4,700 votes. Other bigger losers from the party include Muslim faces - Shoaib Iqbal (Matia Mahal) and Haroon Yusuf (Congress), President's daughter Sharmistha Mukherjee (Greater Kailash) and Dr. Yoganand Shastri (Malviya Nagar).

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part VI

THE RESULTS

Though the Opinion polls may have been unanimous in declaring the AAP as the clear winner in the Delhi elections 2015 after the votes were cast on February 7, the magnitude of their victory was grossly under-estimated. Nobody, not even the likes of Kejriwal or Yogendra Yadav would have anticipated that their party would bag over 95 percent of the seats in the state assembly. As Shiv Sena supremo Uddhav Thackeray put it, it seemed that the 'Modi wave' was swept aside by the 'tsunami' in favor of the Aam Admi Party. As early as December last year, many felt that the AAP would find it extremely difficult to get a decent tally, forget thoughts of going past the half way mark, especially after a series of political blunders that they had committed in the past year. The whitewash in the national capital in the Lok Sabha polls was hailed as the beginning of the end of the anti-corruption party. In what can be best described as a 'fairy tale', thousands of AAP volunteers ably led by Kejriwal & Co. worked day in and day out to capitalize on the errors made by the BJP to turn the tide in their favor by getting across their vision for Delhi to the masses.

Courtesy: HD Wallpapers wala

The AAP's phenomenal tally of 67 seats is special in many ways. There are very rare instances in multi-party democracies like ours wherein a single party manages to win such a large percentage of seats. The only other state where such a pattern has been observed in recent times was in Sikkim where the ruling SDF under CM Pawan Kumar Chamling won all 32 seats in the 2009 elections to the state assembly. Prior to that, the party had won 31 seats in 2004. Another important trend to notice is that Kejriwal's outfit won nearly 54 percent of the total votes; again, the way our election process is structured, this is not very common. In fact, 55 of the 67 winning candidates of the AAP won over 55 percent of the votes in their respective constituencies, a clear indication that they had won the confidence of the people across all parts of the city. Prominent winners from the party include Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, Somnath Bharati, Rakhi Bidlan and Alka Lamba.

Sr.	Political Party	Seats
1	Aam Admi Party (AAP)	67
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	3
3	Congress (INC)	0
4	Others	0

With this memorable win, the AAP has finally managed to stem the Modi juggernaut that had enjoyed unprecedented success in last eight months. The odds were heavily stacked against them. However, the relatively new outfit must be credited for the manner in which they ran their campaign ever since Kejriwal resigned from his post in February last year. With the BJP delaying the elections to the state assembly for reasons best known to them, the AAP got the time to re-group and formulate a strategy to counter the saffronists who were trying to cash in on PM Modi's popularity. Through Delhi Dialogue, the party managed to read the pulse of the voters while convincing them that they would not run away from power this time around. A strict screening process to select candidates and an effective social media campaign further helped their cause. Their 70 point agenda that included some populist measures helped them woo the lower and middle income groups away from the two national parties and helped the AAP register a historic win.

Courtesy: Desktop HD Wallpapers

For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the results of the Delhi polls have been their worst nightmare. Having bagged 31 seats in the 2013 state elections and won all seven seats in the parliamentary seats the following year, the saffron camp was reduced to just three seats. There is a serious need for introspection within the BJP as many political activists have pointed out, they seem to have handed an easy victory to the AAP on the platter. The delay in scheduling the polls seems to be the first mistake that the party made. As if it was not enough, the infighting within the party's state leadership as well as the move to parachute Kiran Bedi to led the campaign seem to have further contributed to their pathetic performance. In fact, the party seemed to have focused more on 'maligning' Kejriwal's image with PM Modi leading the pitch, rather than telling the people of Delhi what their plans are for the capital. The process of selecting candidates was delayed whereas the saffron camp did not even release a proper manifesto. All in all, the party seemed to have paid a heavy price for being arrogant and for running a 'negative' campaign in the polls. In what was a major setback, the party's CM candidate Kiran Bedi was beaten by AAP's S K Bagga from their stronghold of Krishna Nagar. The only silver lining was that its vote share as compared to the last state polls remained almost stagnant.

For the grand old party of Indian politics, the situation seems to be worsening. The Congress which had ruled the national capital for three straight terms could not even open its account. It managed to win just over 8 percent of the total votes where 62 of its 70 candidates even lost their deposits. Amongst them was its campaign chief Ajay Maken. It is imperative that the party's High Command takes some serious steps to arrest the decline in the fortunes of the INC.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part V

THE THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR

I am pretty sure that most of you will agree with me when I say that the elections to Delhi will be the most keenly fought electoral contest following the General polls 2014. The campaign was as bitter as it was intense. Unlike the other recently concluded state polls where the Congress put up a rather feeble resistance to the saffron juggernaut, the BJP seems to have found a worthy opponent in the AAP in the national capital. The AAP leadership as well as the thousands of volunteers and karya kartas working for Kejriwal's outfit deserve a round of applause for resurrecting the party from the shambles after the thumping that it got in May last year all thanks to morchas, bike rallies and nukkad nataks (street dramas) that they have undertaken in the last two months. Of course, the saffronists too made their work easier after a series of electoral blunders that saw them lose a lot of ground to their opponents as the polling date approached. In fact, opinion polls suggest that AAP may actually hold an edge over the BJP; meanwhile, the INC's situation continues to be pathetic. The impact that these polls will have will be huge and here are the points to watch out for as the EVMs are opened and the results are announced this Tuesday:

(1) The AAP's Battle For Survival: One can understand why the Delhi polls is so important for the Aam Admi Party (AAP) and its chief. After being demolished in the General polls and being wiped out of Delhi, Kejriwal & Co. have put all on the line. While many expected them to take a defensive line in wake of the May 2014 drubbing, the party cadre worked relentlessly to consolidate their substantial vote base amongst the low income workers and migrants who have traditional been Congress loyalists, besides luring a sizable chunk of traders away from the saffron camp. In spite of the fact that several of its former leaders have crossed over to the opposing camp, the AAP has fought the BJP tooth and nail using limited means and through unconventional and innovative methods, making sure that their vision of a corruption-free Delhi is put across to the electorate. While highlighting their performance during 49 day long government that the party had formed with the outside support of the Congress, Kejriwal has attacked the NDA regime at the Center for failing to do anything for the people of the capital in spite of being in power for the last seven months.

It is a 'do or die' scenario for the the former IRS officer and his outfit. A win would herald a second innings that would help it expand its support base beyond Delhi whereas a defeat could mean an abrupt end to AAP's political fortunes, making it one of the many parties that promised big things but could never deliver anything substantial. In politics, it is rare that a party gets an opportunity to make a comeback and it remains to be seen if Kejriwal and his outfit can grab this golden opportunity with both hands and make the most out of it, failing which, it could well sink into the oblivion.

(2) The End of Modi Mania? The BJP just had the best year in its three decade long history. Besides winning a clear majority on the floor of the Lok Sabha this May, it emerged victorious in Haryana and Jharkhand. In Maharashtra where it fought the polls without its ally - the Shiv Sena, the saffron outfit emerged as the single largest party, winning nearly twice as many seats as its friend turned foe turned friend. In Jammu Kashmir too, the party fared well, picking up 25 seats, all coming from the Hindu dominated Jammu region. It is clear that the persona of the PM Narendra Modi as a pro-development, no non-sense leader has largely been responsible for this wave of support to the BJP across most parts of the country, including those where the party has had minimal historical presence. As the Modi juggernaut has rolled, the BJP has been able to snatch state after state from the Congress and other weak regional satraps who seem to have been blown away.

However, the big question is whether the Kejriwal would be the man who could put a brake on the Modi bandwagon which till a month back looked unstoppable. Opinion polls suggest that the fight for the capital could be a photo finish between the two main contenders - the BJP and the AAP. The PM has addressed several rallies in Delhi where he tore into the Kejriwal's 'dismal' record while in office and asked him to join the Naxalites. On the other hand, the AAP chief's rallies too saw massive turnouts, much more than that of BJP's CM nominee Kiran Bedi. In fact, regional satraps including Mamta Bannerjee who are gearing up to fight the saffronists in their own backyards have put their weight behind the AAP, an indication of how important that results of Delhi 2015 could be on the Indian political landscape.

There has been a certain section in the media that believes that the Delhi polls are a referendum on Modi. In my opinion, such an analysis is a little far fledged. While the national capital is a cosmopolitan city, the voting patterns here, as in many of the other states and cities across the country cannot be extrapolated to the country as a whole. Of course, while a loss would be a blow to the PM, a victory will be the crowning glory in what has been a superb 14 month period for him and his party.

(3) Can 'Master Strategist' Amit Shah deliver yet again: Though the BJP fought the polls under the leadership of Narendra Modi, it was his Man Friday, Amit Shah was the real architect of the party's amazing tally in May last year. As the chief of the saffron outfit's campaign in the mega state of Uttar Pradesh, he ran an efficient campaign using Modi's persona, flaring up communal sentiments and striking deals with various socio-political organizations, thereby helping the BJP and its ally - the Apna Dal win 73 of the 80 parliamentary seats, a feat unparalleled in the country's electoral history. While the Gandhis and the Yadavs were reduced to their pocket boroughs, Mayawati's BSP was wiped off. As such, it did not come as a surprise when the former Gujarat Home Minister was made the national party president last year.

The move has certainly paid off. In Haryana, he decided to ditch the HJC and the saffron camp still managed to go past the half way mark at 45, forming its first government in the state's electoral history. In Jharkhand, he decided to play safe, forging an alliance with the Mahato's AJSU; the move paid off again with the coalition beating the Congress and the JMM. In the big state of Maharashtra, he took the risk of breaking ties with the Shiv Sena as the saffron allies failed to reach an agreeable seat sharing formula. As the results were announced, Maharashtra had its first BJP CM with members of the Sena joining his cabinet. Though his ambitious 'Mission 44+' did not exactly materialize in J&K, the BJP still win 25 seats, the most it had won ever. No wonder, he is considered to be the best electoral strategist in the country.

Unfortunately for him and his party, Shah's magic seems to be waning in Delhi this time around with the BJP committing one blunder after another. At the beginning of the campaign, the party appointed Satish Upadhyay as the head of its campaign instead of making Dr Harshavardhan its face in the state. With the AAP growing from strength to strength, the saffronists made Kejriwal's former colleague in the anti-corruption movement Kiran Bedi its CM candidate. Although the move was hailed by some as a master stroke, as days went by, it became clear that the former IPS officer failed to match the former Delhi CM's charisma at least in the political arena. In a desperate attempt to bolster the party's fortunes ahead of the polling day, the party president got in a host of bigwigs including the PM, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, Power Minister Piyush Goyal, Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and over 100 MPs to canvass for the party's nominees. Will this last ditch attempt pay off or will Delhi be a blot on Shah's rather envious report card so far.

(4) Kiran Bedi's political future: While there could be doubts whether the Delhi polls is a referendum on AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal or PM Narendra Modi, one thing is clear. The way the national capital votes will decide for sure, the fate of one politician - BJP's Kiran Bedi. The former tough cop who was with Anna Hazare in the anti-corruption movement is now in the saffron camp. In fact, her appointment as the BJP's CM candidate reportedly sparked infighting amongst the numerous camps that the Delhi unit of the party finds itself in. Though the AAP chief termed this as a move to shield Modi from the blame of the defeat, many thought that Bedi's clean image would compliment the wave in support of the BJP and help it go past the half way mark. Unfortunately, Bedi has not managed to 'set the stage on fire'. A defeat to the BJP would mean the end of her political ambitions though she is expected to easily win her constituency of Krishna Nagar, the stronghold of BJP leader Dr. Harshavardhan. A victory though would make her the CM of the capital.

(5) The fate of the Congress: The 'bad times' for the grand old party seems to never get over. As if the spate of electoral defeats over the last year were not enough, the INC seems to be headed to a third position finish in the Delhi state polls too. Clearly, the move to get in former Union Minister Ajay Maken has not worked the way the loyalists would have thought. The Opinion Polls indicate that the Congress may in fact perform worse than it did in December 2013 when it was reduced to just eight seats. This would be a massive blow to the party and its supporters. Following the rout in the General Polls last year, it seems that the party has not yet been able to re-invent itself or to put it in other words, the electorate has still not forgiven the party for the mistakes that it committed during its decade long regime at the Centre. Anything more than 8 would at least indicate that the Congress has improved its position somewhat whereas a tally less than that would raise serious questions over the party's future. In that case, the voices against Rahul Gandhi and his coterie of supporters will only grow stronger and many heavyweights might actually quit the 'sinking ship' like former minister Jayanti Natarajan did a few days ago.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part IV

A LOT IS AT THE STAKE FOR THE AAM ADMI PARTY

Though I have been a vivid follower of Indian politics over the last 12 years, I must confess that I have never seen the fortunes of any single political party swing from one end of the scale to the other in such a small time frame viz a viz the Aam Admi Party. Formed by former IPS officer Arvind Kejriwal and his coterie of confidantes following differences of opinion over the future of the anti-corruption movement with their mentor Anna Hazare, the outfit thrived in the national capital all thanks to the growing discontent over the policy paralysis that had become the hallmark of the then Manmohan Singh led UPA II regime. At a time when Modi mania had not yet set in, at least in most parts of the country, Kejriwal managed to captivate the minds of the voters in Delhi, chiefly the middle class by promising to eradicate corruption and reduce power tariffs.

In the 2013 state polls, the AAP on its debut, won a staggering 28 seats, just three seats less than the BJP; with the outside support of the Congress, Arvind was sworn in as the Chief Minister of Delhi, a move hailed by many including me back then, as the first step towards cleansing the entire political system in the country. In the next few days, as the funds started flowing into the party's account, the membership of the AAP too grew by leaps and bounds; several eminent people from many different streams left their 'thriving' professions to join the party as it began spreading its network beyond the borders of the capital. Once in power, Kejriwal did fulfill some of the promises he had made during the campaign like reducing the power tariffs. However, his 49 day reign was marred a host of controversies like Somanath Bharati's mid night raid and the fiasco surrounding his resignation after the Lokpal Bill failed to pass the test in the legislative assembly.

Though supporters of the AAP may not agree with me on this, at least in the open, Kejriwal's move of resigning from the post of the CM was a calculated one. Perhaps, he had hoped that the 'sacrifice' he had made in passing the anti-graft legislation would help him win the hearts of the people across the country. What the former IRS officer failed to realize was that by this time, BJP's PM nominee's talk of development had managed to strike a chord with the masses. The General Polls was a disaster from the AAP's perspective . Of the 400 odd seats that it contested, the party won just four seats even as a host of of its top leaders including Kejriwal himself had to bite the dust. In the next few days, the fortunes of the AAP declined with many observers dipping their pens in black ink and writing its obituaries. Voices of rebellion against the party chief and his coterie grew by the day even as many bigwigs resigned from the outfit.

The next state polls to the Delhi legislative assembly though is without doubt, the most important juncture in the AAP's political history; the results scheduled on February 10 could be the big 'make or break' moment for the Kejriwal led party. With the polls most likely to be a direct contest between the AAP and the BJP, the stakes are high for Arvind Kejriwal; he needs to put the bitter experiences of the past behind and re-affirm his hold over the party. Aware of this, the party decided against putting up candidates in the recently concluded state polls and concentrate only on the capital. The party's campaign is on full swing and the crowds turning out at Kejrwal's gathering indicate that he is not going to go down without a fight.

If the AAP does manage to go past the half way or for a fact even manages to finish as the single largest party in the next assembly, a very likely option, it would herald a second innings for the outfit as well as its chief. This scenario will give him the chance to govern the capital for a full term and implement the many promises he has made to the electorate in the past few months. Besides, this could be the model government that the outfit could showcase to the people across the country, thereby helping him build a strong support base outside Delhi. With Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand going to the polls in the next two years, Kejriwal and the AAP would be in a solid position to make in roads in these surrounding states provided he is in power in the capital. Moreover, all the questions being raised regarding Arvind's 'autocratic' style of functioning will be brushed aside. Moreover, the aura of invincibility surrounding the persona of the PM and the BJP president Amit Shah will be diminished to a large extent, allowing parties like the AAP and for that matter, even the Congress to make a political comeback of sorts.

A loss in the polls to the BJP though would mean a 'death knail' in the political career of the former Delhi CM. For long now, reports have indicated that a series of leaders in the party including Yogendra Yadav, Kumar Vishwas and Shanti Bhushan are miffed with Kejriwal. They believe that the AAP chief has strayed from the path of anti-corruption only to fulfill his personal agenda. In case, the AAP does lose out to the BJP, these voices will only gather momentum in the coming days; in that scenario, the former IRS officer will have to resign from the post of party president citing moral responsibility, failing which, another split in the party is imminent. For the party though, as the principal opposition to the BJP, it will still play a major role in Delhi politics for some years with or without Kejriwal at the helm of affairs. However, by the 2020, one must not be surprised if the battle for the capital becomes a two-sided affair between the saffron outfit and the grand old party, relegating the AAP to the fringes. Under these circumstances, the party's dream of forming a government at the Centre will be all but over.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)