NEW PRESIDENT, NEW CHALLENGES

CHALLENGES BEFORE AMIT SHAH AS HE IS APPOINTED BJP PRESIDENT

Courtesy: In.Com

Indeed the BJP fought hard and won a memorable victory in the 2014 General Elections. After being out of power at the Centre for a decade, the saffron outfit made a strong comeback; in fact with 282 seats, it registered the best tally for a single party in the last three decades. A large credit for this splendid performance should rightly go to PM Narendra Modi; the former Gujarat CM used his 'no nonsense, pro-development' image to the full advantage; first he re-energized the cadre and then projected himself as the only viable alternative to a nation that was simmering with anti-incumbency and waiting for an opportunity to teach the 'corrupt' Congress a lesson that it is unlikely to forget soon. Of course while the victory was a collective effort on the part of the saffron party, rather the NDA and the entire Sangh Parivar, one of the heroes of this victory is Modi's trusted lieutenant and former minister in Gujarat cabinet - Amit Shah.

The controversial politician who was even jailed briefly for his alleged involvement in the Sohrabuddin 'fake' encounter case was deputed by Modi to Uttar Pradesh as soon as he was appointed as the head of the BJP's campaign team for the big polls last year (Link). And boy, the move proved to be a master stroke, isn't it? In about an year that he spent in the 'mother of all states', Shah used his political acumen to completely re-organize the local party structure; he cut anti-Modi elements within the saffron camp like Vinay Katiyar to size, entered into alliances with smaller outfits and social organizations, gave 'provocative' speeches (Link) and even chose candidates. His hard work paid off; the BJP and its partner - the Apna Dal (AD) won 73 of the 80 seats from Uttar Pradesh even bettering its previous best tally of 50 odd seats at the height of the Ram Janma Bhoomi agitation way back in 1991 (Link). As such, after former President Rajnath Singh was sworn in as the Home Minister in the Modi cabinet, there were no surprises as the master strategist was appointed as the president of the BJP earlier this week.

Hailed by many, especially in the Hindu right wing as a modern day Chanakya, Shah has been rewarded for the brilliant result that he got for the party in the big state. Winning over 90 percent of the total seats in a vast and diverse state like UP wherein voting patterns are massively influenced by factors like caste and religion is no small task. Now let me throw in some statics that will help you comprehend the magnitude of Amit Shah's achievements. The BJP in UP won more seats than what the UPA won across the country. Of the seven seats that the NDA did not bag here, five went to the Yadavs and two to the Gandhis. I understand that certain segments do have strong reservations against him, especially considering his alleged role in 'communal' activities in the past. However, rather sadly, the standards in our politics are so low that it is very difficult to find politicians with a 'clean' image. Moreover, knowing that the new PM likes to work with people close to him, there is little doubt that the appointment has his blessings too. After all, the two have been close since the early 80s when they worked as pracharaks for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

Politics is tough business and there is no time to rest on past laurels. And probably few know it more than Amit Shah. Though results of the General Polls may still be fresh in the minds of BJP leaders and its supporters, the Gujarati leader knows that his work is cut out. While the saffron outfit and its allies may have a big majority in the Lok Sabha, the government is still far away from the halfway mark in the Upper House. This makes the upcoming state elections extremely crucial, after all a vast majority of the members here are elected by members of the state legislature. In the next six months, at least three states - Maharashtra (Link), Haryana (Link) and Jammu Kashmir (Link) will go to the polls. One has to remember that all three are presently being ruled by the Congress and its allies. Amongst them, the three account for 28 of the 250 seats in the Rajya Sabha. To add to them, there are a few other states that may see snap polls anytime soon. The Delhi assembly has been in suspended animation for over eight months (Link); the Uttarakhand government is looking shaky after the defection of Pauri MP Satpal Maharaj to the saffron side after being side-lined in the Congress for long (Link); the JMM-INC alliance in Jharkhand is on a sticky wicket and the drubbing that the allies got in the General Elections has made the matters worse. Shah has to make sure that the momentum from the General Polls is taken forward and the party and its coalition partners win each of these states.

Another thing at the top of Shah's priority list is expansion in the East and the South where the party has largely been an insignificant player. In fact, the new president has made this pretty clear via twitter a few days after settling in his new role. A hallmark of the saffron outfit's stupendous victory earlier this year was that the BJP did extremely well even outside its traditional base in the Hindi heart land. While we all know that Modi magic played a key role in this, it is up to Shah & Co. to make sure that this win helps them carve out a solid vote bank for the BJP outside its 'comfort zone'. After winning all three parliamentary seats in Jammu and Ladakh regions of J&K, the saffronists are expected to at least double its last tally of 11 seats in the state assembly which will make it a sought after ally for the Mufti-led PDP in case of a hung assembly. The rout faced by the Left Front in Bengal (Link) and Kerala (Link), plus the improvement in BJP's vote share here has given a big fillip to the local party organization. In the coming years, one should not be surprised if these two states feature high in the party's future plans. In Tamil Nadu too, the outfit's ability to put together a rainbow alliance (Link) and then win the Kannyakumari parliamentary seat has shown that it is carving out a space for itself in state politics. Surely, this is an opening that Shah would like to capitalize on. The good will earned in Telangana (Link) over the BJP's support to the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh can be leveraged to its advantage and you can bet that this will surely be a part of the new president's agenda. On similar terms, the good show put up by the BJP in Haryana, Assam (Link) and Arunachal Pradesh (Link) in the last General Elections provides a golden opportunity for Shah to consolidate the saffron party's position here too.

While the margin of BJP's victory may undermine the role played by its allies in 2014, one has to realize that the BJP cannot afford to break its friendship with any of its existing 20 odd partners. Although the Modi mania worked in the General Elections, there is no doubt that the allies (Link) are important in state elections. Moreover, retaining existing friends and looking out for new ones will only further isolate its nemesis - the Congress. With the Maharashtra elections just around the corner, all is certainly not well between the BJP and its oldest ally - the Shiv Sena (SS). There were rumors that the local BJP leaders wanted the high command to scrap its existing seat sharing arrangement with the SS with some even suggesting a tie-up with Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). The new president has to make sure that its 'Mahayuti' that swept the western state earlier this year remains intact and all differences with Uddhav Thackeray's outfit are sorted out at the earliest. Also, greater co-ordination is required with Paswan's LJP after the consolidation of anti-BJP block - the JD(U), the RJD and the Congress considering that Bihar assembly completes it term next year. Also, it is in the interest of the saffron camp if the half rainbow alliance in Tamil Nadu is intact, at least till it can get AIADMK in the NDA, which in itself is an arduous task. Also, it is extremely crucial to have at least working relation with other big regional players including K Chandrashekar Rao's TRS, Jaganmohan Redddy's YSRCP, Mufti's PDP and Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF.

Challenge Number 4 will be pacifying the seniors who were unhappy with Modi and Rajnath Singh for not considering their views during the course of the 2014 polls. Now that the BJP is back in the government after a gap of 10 years with that record shattering win, it will be a good for the party if Shah manages to placate the old guard. With his vast experience in Indian politics and in the functioning of the government, Lal Krishna Advani or Murali Manohar Joshi are assets that the outfit cannot afford to sideline. Also their connections with other political parties can prove to be helpful to break deadlocks in the Parliament. Meanwhile, there were reports that Jaswant Singh was keen to rejoin the saffron camp after his rebellion against the party in Barmer ended in a flop show. Getting Jaswant and his son - MLA Manvendra will send the right signal. We all know that popular southern movie star Pawan Kalyan played a key role in the TDP-BJP aliance's victory in the state as well as parliamentary polls. If the new president can somehow manage to get Pawan to merge his Jan Sena into the saffron fold, the party will be furthered strengthened in Andhra. Also Kalyan's mass appeal will help to reduce its dependence on Chandrababu Naidu. Besides, like Narendra Modi did a few months back, Shah should make an attempt to get back former BJP leader Babulal Marandi (Link) back into the party. Though he had rejected Modi's offer earlier, the rout his party faced will certainly force the JVM chief to reconsider his decision. Also, ahead of the Jharkhand assembly polls, it will further improve BJP's electoral prospects.

In the big win that the BJP won this summer, it is easy to forget that the party won just 31 percent of the total votes. In other words, considering that the NDA as a whole got about 40 percent of the votes, every 6 out of 10 Indians did not cast their vote in favor of Modi. The learning that Shah can draw from this is that in spite of being the largest political party in India in terms of numbers, the BJP is still not acceptable to many Indians. There are many who continue to associate the outfit with right wing fundamentalism, accusing it to be a party of 'Hindus' in general and 'upper castes' in particular. This also keeps a sizable chunk of the political spectrum from doing any business with the party. It will indeed be interesting to see how the Gujarati leader combats this 'perception'. Though it is good to promote 'meritocracy', Shah has to be more practical. Considering our diversity in terms of religion, caste and gender while taking decision, especially during ticket distribution will help. Another worry for many 'liberals' is that the party will be under pressure from its 'bosses' in Nagpur to promote the agenda of the RSS. Again, it is but imperative for Shah to let the RSS top brass know that it is under no obligation of either the RSS or any right wing organization like the VHP or the Bajrang Dal. Measures such has increasing the representation fo women inside the party and promoting internal democracy will also do a whole lot of good for the saffron outfit.

Born into a middle class Gujarati family in Mumbai, Amit Shah has climbed up the ladder of success only through his hard work and dedication. A Modi loyalist since the early 80s, he has excelled in every challenge that has been thrown at him be it the decimation of the Congress hold in rural Gujarat, turning around the fortunes of the Ahmedabad District Co-opertaive Bank or leading the party to an emphatic win in UP. While he has been rewarded for the results that he got for his party, heading the BJP will truly be a test of character for Modi's Man Friday. All his actions will be scrutinized and controversies will be created where none exists. Will he succeed in his latest assignment..... Well, only time will tell!

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: In.Com
Original: Amit Shah Photos (Link)

BJP AHEAD OF THE CONGRESS...

IN THE RACE FOR ALLIES

Courtesy: IBN Live/Reuters

When the BJP decided to take a gamble by appointing Narendra Modi, first as the chief of its campaign for the Lok Sabha polls and then as its nominee for the post of the Prime Minister, many thought it would never get any allies and would thus warm the Opposition benches for another five years in the Parliament. After all, in this era of coalition politics where no party can think of crossing the half way mark on its own, it is but imperative to have powerful regional satraps on one's side. In fact, in one of the articles that I had written post Modi's anointment (Link), I had mentioned that the stigma of the 2002 Gujarat riots could keep several powerful regional players away from doing any kind of business with the NDA. With Nitish Kumar's JD(U) walking out of the BJP led coalition, it seemed that the saffron outfit was fighting a battle that it was destined to lose. Six months down the line, things have changed. Of course, I need to admit that I was wrong in thinking that a NDA headed by Modi would ever grow beyond three or four parties.

While Nitish Kumar and certain segments within the BJP including the party patriarch Lal Krishna Advani may have been against his appointment, the Gujarat Chief Minister must be given credit for galvanizing a party that seemed to be heading towards doom. Considering his strong Hindutva image, he helped consolidate the party's core vote bank. Next, with a strong leader at the helm of affairs, the war of succession amongst the BJP's second generation leaders too has been brushed aside at the moment. The differences have been dissolved, at least for the time being, and the party has stood solidly behind its PM nominee. Meanwhile, at rally after rally in different parts of the country, the Gujarat leader has spoken about his development agenda. This has helped him connect with the masses who have been disillusioned with the UPA. His poll managers have also done a great job on the social media, boosting his popularity amongst the youth. In the last few months while the BJP has moved from strength to strength, the Congress has constantly been under fire with so many scams being unearthed in recent months. Many allies have marched out of the UPA and several more prospective partners have refused to enter into any sort of agreement with the INC, fearing the massive anti-incumbency against the regime in New Delhi. Finally, after a thumping victory in the December 2013 polls held in four states, it is evident that the BJP is in the driving seat and everyone wants to be a part of the NDA bandwagon.

Of course, one cannot overlook the role of party president Rajnath Singh in 'resurrecting' the NDA. Taking over from Nitin Gadkari after his name figured in the alleged wrong doings regarding investments in his Purti Group, he was instrumental in the elevation of Narendra Modi in spite of strong opposition from Advani and a bitter divorce with the JD(U). As the Gujarat CM toured the nation, talking about his 'vision' for the country, Singh worked behind the scenes to stitch together a mega formation to take on a weak UPA. The first part of the strategy was to bring back those leaders who had walked out of the BJP earlier. Soon, former CMs B S Yeddyurappa and Kalyan Singh were back into the party fold (Link). Keshubahi's GPP too is expected to merge into the BJP soon. Next, Singh went on allying with several smaller partners. The saffron outfit built up solid alliances in states like Maharashtra and Bihar. In Tamil Nadu, where the party has minimal presence, it brought together many Dravidian parties while the Congress seems to be fighting the polls all alone. To go beyond its traditional support base, it has also joined hands with Dalit parties including Paswan's LJP.

Though there is no doubt that the NDA is emerging as the foremost coalition ahead of the 2014 General Elections, it is clear that it will still need many more partners if it has to form the next government at the Centre. In fact, many parties have started sending feelers to the BJP. Raj Thackeray of the MNS has made it clear that he will support Modi for the PM's post. AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha is believed to be close to the Gujarat CM whereas Karunanidhi has also referred to him as a 'good friend'. A lot can be read into NCP chief Sharad Pawar's clean chit to BJP PM candidate. Even Jagan Reddy of the YSR Congress has called him a 'good administrator'. Naidu's TDP is an old ally and is speculated to join back the NDA anywhere soon. The AGP too is a prospective partner; its absence from the meeting of the Third Front leaders does say a lot. And finally, the big catch - the BJD and the BJP too may kiss and make-up.

READING BETWEEN THE LINES

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM ROUND ONE OF ASSEMBLY POLLS - 2013

Assembly Polls 2013: The Winners

With the three north eastern states that went to the polls in the early part of the year re-electing their incumbent Chief Ministers to power, the phase one of the state elections that will be held throughout 2013 came to an eventful end. While each of these had one clear winner, past experiences and a little common sense will tell us that there is certainly more to our politics than simply crossing the majority mark or forming the government. Political parties are trying hard to read between the lines, analyzing the verdict from various angles and finding issues that resonate with the people so as to chalk out effective strategies ahead of the upcoming Vidhan Soudha mandate in other states, while keeping the big daddy of them all - Lok Sabha 2014 firmly in focus. Though we cannot generalize the findings that have come out of Agartala, Shillong or Kohima with other parts of the country considering the maze that our Rajneeti is, some of the trends seen here will be of interest to both - the politicians as well as the analysts who closely track the electoral process and developments in the world's largest democracy. In my opinion, the biggest highlights which have come out of the recently concluded polls in the north eastern region are as follows:-

(1) High Voting Percentage - Jago re, Jago re, Jagooo re: Voting is certainly the most important right that the Constitution guarantees us. In the past though, we Indians have taken this privilege for granted, preferring to take the day off rather than waiting in queues in front of the election booths. However, ever since the turn of the new millennium, there has been a steady increase in

Courtesy: IBN Live

the voting percentage in most polls, right from the Panchayat level to General elections. Be it due to the sustained efforts of the Election Commission or because the electorate is becoming aware of its responsibilities, the participation of more people in these processes is a positive sign and will go a long way in strengthening our democratic credentials. In fact, electoral history was created this time around in Tripura as 93.57 percent of all registered voters cast the ballot - the highest ever since independent India's first elections in 1952. While the voting percentage in the other two states fell slightly as compared to the last assembly polls, the people in Meghalaya must be given credit for the manner in which they defied the bandh called by the extremist organization - the Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council and came out in such large numbers to make their opinions matter, reaffirming their faith in our democracy, in spite of all its flaws. Even in 2012, the polling percentage in all seven states was well above the national average. The high voter turnout is a clear indication of the fact that masses have realized every vote matters and by not voting they are helping undeserving candidates win.

(2) Anti-incumbency..... Whats that? In the years following the Emergency of 1977-78, anti-incumbency was probably, the most issue in Indian elections. In fact, except for the Left in its bastions of Bengal and Tripura, the BJP in Gujarat and the Congress in few of the north eastern provinces, fortunes of political parties in most states would change every five years. Though the BJP tried to suppress it by raising the 'feel good factor' slogan ahead of the 2004 Lok Sabha and ended up paying a heavy price, the UPA managed to win a second consecutive term. Likewise, Manik Sarkar's 'Mr Clean' image and the steps his government took to establish peace by combating extremism won him a straight forth term, saving the last fortress of the communists in the country. In Meghalaya, a state renowned for its 'Aaya Ram - Gaya Ram' politics, the vote was for stability as Mukul Roy took the Congress extremely close to the majority on its own. The numerous corruption allegations against the Rio government could not prevent the NPF from retaining power single-handedly as the Naga issue struck a chord with the electorate. Last year, while Parkash Singh Badal become the first CM in over four decades to be elected for two straight terms in Punjab, Gujarat CM Narendra Modi routed the Congress in his backyard. Meanwhile, Ikram Ibobi Singh won a third term for the INC in Manipur. The writing on the wall is clear. The public will not hesitate to vote for their sitting MLAs again, if and only if they either have an excellent report card at the end of their term or seem to have credibility to deliver on their issues that concern the aam admi. No wonder then that development, stability or even some regional sentiments can undo any damage that anti-incumbency can cause.

(3) The Left survives the lithmus test: Many analysts believed that the Tripura elections could well be the last nail in the coffin of the Communists in India if the grand coalition of the INC had managed to storm the Agartala assembly. In retrospection, one will realize that the political stars of the Red brigade took a downward turn since they pulled out support to the UPA in 2008 over the Indo-US nuclear deal. In the 2009 General elections, the Left dropped 35 seats to finish at a mere 24 and the Third Front failed

Courtesy: CPI(M)

to pose any challenge to the Congress led alliance, rendering it insignificant in the Parliament. In 2011, the Congress extracted revenge over their former buddies for the 2008 fiasco as it trounced the Marxists by four seats in a closely fought contest to win Kerala. The biggest shock though came from Bengal as Didi capitalized on the agitations in Singur and Nandigram to full fill her life long dream of coming to power in Kolkata. No wonder than that all eyes were on Tripura as three time CM Manik Sarkar led the Left Front in the battle for its last stronghold in the country. All thanks to in fighting amongst Congress leaders, the persona of Sarkar and the development work carried out by the previous regimes, the ruling alliance won a decisive victory, walking away with 50 of the 60 seats inspite of failing to deliver on issues like poverty and unemployment. While the mandate was more like an endorsement for the Sarkar government than for the Marxist ideology, the politiburo is hopeful that such an amazing performance will rejuvenate the cadre and boost its prospects in the 2014 so that it emerges as a key player on the national stage, once again.

(4) Mixed Bag for the Congress: With the Congress ruling over five of the eight north eastern states, the round one of the assembly polls 2013 was an excellent opportunity for the party to further make inroads into the region, especially because two of the states - Tripura and Nagaland which had been under its political rivals for a long time were up for grabs. With Baba's 'Mission 2014' in mind, the party got its entire top brass - the trioka of Manmohan Singh, Sonia and Rahul Gandhi to campaign here.

Courtesy: Shillong Times

However, it failed to do the ground work properly, something that the crown prince had stressed in his list of imperatives for revival. Deep rooted factionalism between leaders and faulty distribution of tickets were the prime reason for the pathetic performance of the INC and its allies in the Tripura polls. While it is true that nothing could bring down the Sarkar Raj in Agartala, the high command will certainly not be pleased by way things went for the party. Though failing to do well in Tripura is a cause of concern, there is no justification whatsoever for the disastrous numbers that the outfit got in Nagaland where it finished with just 8 seats. There is an urgent need for it to do some serious introspection so as to find out the reasons for its failure to even cross the two digit mark considering the various corruption scandals that the Rio government was embodied in. Nonetheless, Mukul Sangma emerged as the poster boy for the party as he prevented a white wash by almost winning Meghalaya on his own in spite of the various contenders in the fray. As the north eastern region which contributes a total of 25 seats to the Lok Sabha has largely been a stronghold of the Congress in the past, the party needs to make additional efforts to reach out to the people in a bid to address their concerns so as to strengthen its position prior to the big mandate.

(5) Another flop show for the BJP: After dropping the tainted Nitin Gadkari following a last minute coup by its top leaders in what has been seen as an effort to break free from the shackles of the RSS, the saffron outfit was hoping that the new President Rajnath Singh would steer it back to the top. Singh showed aggression, trying to mix the Hindutva agenda with development, hoping that its ideology will become more relevant to the youth while preserving its traditional vote bank. The most important part of this strategy was to expand the BJP beyond the Hindi heartland, taking it to hitherto unknown lands and make it a formidable power across the nation. As such, Singh took an active part in the campaign, visiting these poll bound states with other national leaders and even opening channels of communication with regional players. However, in spite of all the efforts that the former UP CM put in, the party managed to get just one seat which is embarrassing to say the least. The lone seat that it won out of the 11 it contested in Nagaland came from the Tijit constituency. Sadly, it even failed to open its account in Meghalaya and Tripura. The question staring the party is whether it can afford to think of ruling the country without a significant presence in several parts. The outfit which came into the national scene after the demolition of the Babri Masjid is virtually non-existent in Bengal, most of the north eastern states and down south. In Uttar Pradesh its influence has waned and in states like Bihar and Punjab, it plays second fiddle to other stronger partners. It is but clear that Rajnath needs to focus on building the BJP in these regions rather than simply going there just before elections or else it will never become a national party in true sense.

(6) Endgame Sangma? When Garo strongman Purno Sangma joined the National People's Party (NPP) after failing in his bid to become the thirteenth President of India, the conception, atleast in the media was that he would have a big impact on the election results in his home state of Meghalaya. The exodus of top leaders from his previous party - the NCP including his two sons into the NPP further strengthened this claim. However, the results were a shocker to Purno and his supporters. As the

Courtesy: Frontline

Congress under one Mukul Sangma inched close to majority on its own, the NPP had a disastrous debut with only two of its candidates making it to the legislative assembly, much lower than the 10 odd seats which the pundits had predicted. The Congress won 12 of the 25 seats in the Garo region - the home turf of the seasoned politician. This is significant because the NPP chief has represented this part of the country in the Lok Sabha on multiple occasions before his daughter Agatha was elected from here in 2009. Shockingly, his younger son Conrad who is a former state minister and Leader of Opposition was beaten by Clement Marak of the INC in Selsella constituency. The only consolation for the tribal leader was that his eldest son James won from Daddenggire. Many believe that the 2013 Meghalaya polls might well have sounded the end of the political career of P A Sangma, who arguably, is the most famous politician from the North east. However, it is too early to write off the NPP chief, specially because he has seen several storms (and parties of course) in his political career spanning over four decades. With the General elections just an year away, the senior Sangma will get one last opportunity to make a comeback. Meanwhile, his children - James, Conrad and Agatha are young and should work hard to live upto the legacy of their illustrious father. On the other hand, with his brother Zenith and wife Dikkanchi Shira also giving him company in the Megahalaya Vidhan Soudha, CM Mukul Sangma's family has emerged as the new first family of the state politics, atleast for the time being.

For more on the 2014 General Elections

(1) The Fall of the Triumvirate (Link)

(2) The Double Edged Sword (Link)

(3) An Ally in Need is an Ally Indeed (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Coutesy: IBN Live
Source: Northeast election; polling underway in Meghalaya, Nagaland; high turnout expected (Link)

(2) Coutesy: CPI(M) (Link)

(3) Coutesy: Shillong Times
Source: NCP locks horns with Mukul over subsidiary fiasco(Link)

(4) Coutesy: Frontline
Source: Assembly Elections: North eastern round (Link)