LUCKNOW CALLING

PRIYANKA v/s YOGI in 2022

Priyanka Gandhi - Courtesy: Face Book

Early in the month of July, the Housing Ministry of the Central Government served an order to Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi, cancelling the allotment of the Lodhi Estate house in Delhi, which she has been occupying for last 23 years. As expected, the BJP justified the decision, pointing out that the Gandhis, considered to be the first family of Indian politics, no longer enjoy the Special Protection Guard (SPG) protection after the Act was amended in Dec 2019 to cover only the family members of the incumbent and former PMs. The Congress went out all guns blazing; accusing the Modi government of vendetta politics and calling the move a sustained effort on the part of the Modi-Shah duo to target its top brass personally.

On her part, it seems as though Priyanka was anyway planning to shift out of Delhi with reports suggesting that she was due to move to Lucknow so that she could take her job as the party general secretary in charge of UP more seriously. The outbreak of the Corona pandemic seems to have postponed her plan, till the BJP decided to show the more hardcore elements of its core electorate that it would not go soft on the Gandhis. On the part of the INC, they have decided to milk the situation, accusing the government of witch hunt against the younger Gandhi who has been quite vocal in her criticism of the Yogi regime in Uttar Pradesh, and in the process, earn some sympathy for its High Command which has seen its stocks plummet to a low time low.

Ever since the drubbing it got in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the grand old party, has largely been on the back foot at the center, the imbroglio surrounding Rahul Gandhi’s re-appointment as the President, only making the matters worse. Under these circumstances when the party has not been able to corner the government in spite of its mishandling of the Covid situation in the country and recent clashes at the China border, Priyanka’s decision to shift base to Lucknow and help build the party in India’s most important state is certainly a step in the right direction, for the following reasons:

(1) The Gandhis are serious about UP, finally: Though Uttar Pradesh has been the home turf of the Gandhis, they seem to have some how lost touch with the state, post the Indira Gandhi era. The party has become irrelevant outside the pocket boroughs of Rae Bareli and Amethi, ceding ground, first to the BJP during the Babri Masjid demolition movement and then to the two main regional players – the Mulayum Singh & Akhilesh Yadav led Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Mayawati lead Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP); in fact, in the last national polls, BJP leader Smriti Irani even managed to wrest Amethi from the then Congress President Rahul Gandhi.

With Priyanka being one of the main weapon’s in the Congress’ arsenal for the time being, her impending move to Lucknow is a clear indication that the party means business in UP and will put its entire might to put up a good show in the 2022 state polls.

(2) A complete overhaul of the UP Congress: With the party being out of power in Lucknow since 1989, in many parts of the big state, the Congress cadre is non-existent and most of its one-time big wigs have moved on to rival camps. As seen in the 2017 state elections where it happily agreed to play a junior partner to the SP, it seemed until now that the Congress had given up all hopes, resigning to the fact that it was not a serious contender for UP anymore.

With a Gandhi scion taking hold of the reins of the party in UP, it is expected that Priyanka would usher in a series of much delayed and much needed reforms to stop the rot in the UPCC (Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee) and help rebuild the party organization, from the scratch, quite literally. Moreover, for quite some time now, she had been taking on the Yogi government on its alleged failures to provide good governance to the people. Shifting base to UP, not only gives more vigor to her barbs against the state government but is also expected to enthuse the ordinary Congress karya karta right in time for the state polls, scheduled to be held in 20 months.

In fact, she can take some inspiration from bitter rival Amit Shah who as the head of BJP state unit helped the party and its allies win a staggering 73 out of the 80 seats in the 2014 polls that saw Modi sweep to power while the Congress was reduced to its worst ever tally of 44 seats at the national level. Prior to his arrival in UP, BJP's position in the state was just a little better than what the Congress finds itself in as of now; Shah rebuilt the party, taking lots of tough decisions that ultimately paid off. Congress sympathizers are definitely hoping for such a show from Priyanka.

(3) The Division of Power: Ever since Rahul entered electoral politics, there have been accusations of there being multiple power centers within the Congress that severely curtails its ability to take quick decisions vis-a-vis the BJP where Modi’s diktat reigns supreme. It is known that the Congress is split into two camps, the old timers swearing loyalty to Sonia and the young Turks pledging allegiance to Rahul. Of late, with Priyanka taking a more active interest in politics, many feared that a new third camp may emerge, especially with Rahul finding hard to win elections for the party.

Priyanka’s move to Lucknow and Rahul taking back reins from Sonia will certainly be a step that could clear a lot of the mess regarding decision making in the Congress. Rahul would be free to take decisions at the Centre and concentrate on cornering the Modi government while Priyanka, as his trusted lieutenant can help revive the party fortunes in UP.

Priyanka’s choice of residence in UP’s capital city is laced with all sorts of symbolism; she has decided to move into the vacant house owned by Late Sheila Kaul, the sister-in-law of Jawahar Nehru. What makes the house more special is that it was here that Gandhiji and Nehru had planted a tree together way back in the 1930s. Don’t be surprised if you see Priyanka’s social media feed flooded with images of this tree in the run up to the 2022 state polls in a bid to invoke the Nehru-Gandhi legacy of the Congress.

Overall, Priyanka’s move to Lucknow certainly seems to be a step in the right direction. If she can put her political acumen and charisma to good use, she can put the party on a firm footing in UP, while keeping the Yogi government on tenterhooks. If she can get back the traditional Congress vote banks of Brahmins, Muslims and Dalits that they have lost to BJP, SP and the BSP respectively, then the party can hopefully see a revival of fortunes in the big state. In fact, the Congress should take the gamble, announce Priyanka Gandhi as its CM nominee, thereby raising the stakes. The move may or may not pay off, but then, as they say, ‘Fortune favors the Brave’. It could just be the move that could spark off a Congress revival on India's political landscape.

THE SPOILSPORTS

The Bihar elections has been touted as a two horse race between the incumbent CM Nitish Kumar led 'Grand Alliance' on one side and the Narendra Modi led National Democratic Alliance on the other. With most Opinion Polls predicting a neck to neck contest between the two sides, parties are trying hard to retain their 'traditional' vote banks while hoping to break into those of their rivals. From the development card to caste based politics to evoking religious sentiments, outfits are using every issue under the sun to strike a chord with the electorate and win what is turning out to be the most important polls since the last General Elections. However, with the two coalitions grabbing all the headlines, it is easy to overlook the other smaller parties or formations in the fray; while they may not win many seats, they sure can emerge as 'spoilsports' in their strongholds and at the end tilt the results in the favour of one side. Here is a look at the 'not-so-famous' parties or alliances that could play a crucial role in Bihar 2015. 

The Third Front: A golden rule of Indian politics is that 'You should never mess with Mulayum Singh Yadav'; the wrestler turned former CM of Uttar Pradesh is not known to forgive his detractors so easily. The leaders of the Grand Alliance were made aware of this when the SP supremo not only walked out of the Nitish led front but joined hands with the Pappu Yadav's JAM to float a rival coalition that threatens to wean away some votes that would have otherwise gone to the ruling combination. 

The 'Socialist Secular Morcha' as it is being termed is targeting the powerful Muslim - Yadav vote bank which till about a decade ago was the primary support base of Lalu Yadav. There is no doubt that Samajwadi Party (SP) supremo Mulayum is the tallest Yadav leader in the country and he is expected to wield some influence in western parts of Bihar, mainly in the district bordering UP. Besides, the presence of Pappu Yadav's Jan Adikhar Morcha (JAM) will boost the alliance's chances, particularly in his stronghold of Madhepura. The JAM founder certainly has a point to prove; after being expelled out of the RJD, he would want to make Lalu pay for it. In fact, it is believed that several RJD and JD-U leaders who have been denied tickets by their parties are in talks with the controversial politician ahead of the polls. Former Union Minister Nagamani's Samras Samaj Party (SSP), former Lok Sabha Speaker P A Sangma's Nationalist People's Party (NPP) and former Jhanjharpur MP Devendra Prasad Yadav's Samajwadi Janata Dal - Democratic (SJD-D) too are a part of this combination. 

Of course, it has not been all smooth sailing for this alliance. One of its major constituent - the NCP walked out of the Front citing differences with the SP. Ironcially, NCP leader Tariq Anwar was being projected as the Morcha's CM candidate. 

Nationalist Congress Party: The Sharad Pawar led outfit has certainly made a fool of itself in the Bihar assembly elections. In the beginning it was a part of the Nitih led 'Maha ghatbandhan' but walked out of it after it was given just three seats instead of the 12 that it has asked for. Next, it entered into a pre-poll tie up with the SP and was allocated over 40 seats to contest as a constituent of the Third Front. However, days before the second round of voting, the party snapped all ties with the coalition, accusing Mulayum Singh of being hand in glove with the BJP.  

Kathiar MP and party's Muslim face Tariq Anwar speaking to the media said that his outfit will contest 45 seats alone. The NCP will be a strong contender in the six assembly segments of Kathiar district of Bihar and will again eat into the votes of the Nitish - Lalu alliance. The extent of the damage it causes to the 'secular' parties needs to be seen.

The Left Front: Six Communist parties too are fighting the Bihar polls with the aim of providing a 'viable' alternative to the people as per Communist Party of India (CPI) General Secretary Prakash Karat. The other constituents of the alliance include the CPI-ML, the CPM, the RSP, the Forward Block and the Socialist Union of Communist India - Communist (SUCI-C). The coalition is believed to have substantial base Bhojpur and Beguserai regions of the state but it will be crucial to see if this translates into seats.

All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen: It turns out that all the hullabaloo surrounding Owaisi's debut in Bihar turned out to be a dud. Though he had earlier announced plans of contesting on seats from four districts in the Seemanchal region of the state, in a statement made this past week, the AIMIM chief has said that his outfit will only contest from six assembly seats. This move should come as a big relief for the mega coalition since it was believed that Owaisi could end up splitting the Muslim vote which till sometime back was said to be firmly behind Nitish and Lalu.

Shiv Sena: A partner in the government headed by the BJP in Maharashra, the Uddhav Thackeray led outfit's entry into the fray is likely to affect the chances of some NDA candidates in Bihar. The saffron outfit which is regularly in the news for harassing Bihari migrants in Mumbai is hoping to capitalize on disgruntled BJP leaders to help it open its account in the northern state. Though even opening its account will be a big achievement for the Sena, it could play the spoiler for the NDA on some closely fought seats.

Bahujan Samajwadi Party: Though the Mayawati led party once had representatives in the Bihar state assembly, today the BSP's prospects look bleak. The party on its part is contesting all 243 seats but it will take more than a miracle to even win a single seat. As per the plan, the BSP is targeting the Dalit and women voters to do well in the polls.

Jharkhand Mukhti Morcha: The Shibu Soren led JMM has some support base in parts of southern Bihar with significant tribal populations. The former Jharkhand CM will be banking on these votes to spring a surprise and win a few segments.

P.S: Of late, I have not been regularly updating this blog. Apart from work, the other reason is that I have started a new blog - Raajaniti (Link) dedicated to Indian politics. Henceforth, I will put up posts on this topic on both these blogs. 

Also, I would request you to check out the new blog and please provide your valuable feedback.

FRIENDS..... AGAIN

THE IMPACT OF THE REGROUPING OF THE 'SOCIALISTS' ON INDIAN POLITY

Earlier this week, the various fragments of the erstwhile Janata Dal who were literally obliterated in the May Lok Sabha polls decided to join hands in a bid to save their political careers and form a united front against the so-called communal forces led by Modi and a resurgent BJP while being at an arm's length from the Congress which is still battling anti-incumbency in spite of being out of power for over six months. After having played a key role in the formation of successive governments at the Centre for over two decades, these regional satraps found themselves rendered 'political insignificant' after the saffron outfit crossed the halfway mark on its own earlier this year. The Samajwadi Party (SP) which won a decisive mandate in 2012 polls in Uttar Pradesh could not win a single seat outside its family fiefdom as Amit Shah scripted a fairy tale victory for his party in the northern state. The then Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, the self-proclaimed 'upholder' of India's secular ideals was given a mega jolt even as Lalu's much hyped 'comeback' was derailed by Sushil Kumar Modi and his new allies - LJP's Paswan and RSLP's Kushwaha. The misery of other 'former' strongmen namely Deve Gowda and Om Prakash Chautala only compounded further. Now that these 'wise men' of Indian politics have left behind their past differences and agreed to work together, let us for moment ponder as to what implication such a union will have on the politics of the country in the near future.

No prices for guessing as to who benefits the most out of this move. The results of the Bihar by-polls have proved that the only way to effectively counter the Modi-Shah bandwagon is to cobble up coalitions keeping aside bitter rivalries and forgetting ideologies (read 'unholy' alliances). With the state elections scheduled next year, the likes of Nitish, Lalu and Sharad Yadav have to ensure that the anti-BJP vote does not split and the best way to bring together the Maha Dalits, the Yadavs and the Muslims is to revive the Janata Parivaar.

With many expecting Modi to be at the helm of affairs for a long innings, it just makes sense for the regional bigwigs to stick together or risk being out of 'business'. At the same time, many are doubting whether the new outfit could sustain itself; after all, each of these men has a big ego. Moreover, at various times in the past, they have fought and hurled the choicest abuses on each other. Remember those days in the mid 90s when Lalu thwarted Mulayum's dreams of becoming the PM. Perhaps, the biggest hurdle for them will be make sure that they continue to remain united. For the time being, the SP chief is all set to be the leader of the new party; not only does his party have the maximum number of MPs in the Parliament, it also continues to remain in power in UP.

For the first time in many, many years, the prospects of a non-Congress, non-BJP front seem to be more likely than ever. This latest endeavor is different from the Third Front in the sense that all these satraps will now (hopefully) fight under a unified leadership and a common symbol. The BJP certainly has reasons to worry as it makes its task in Bihar all the more difficult. And then, there is the fear of consolidation of the secular votes in the upcoming elections. The saffron outfit has to reconsider its decision of further alienating its allies like the Akalis and the Shiv Sena. The BJP cannot afford to act 'haughty' and 'mistreat' its partners in the NDA, an accusation that many have levied against it in the recent past.

At least the BJP is in power and at present has the arsenal to see off this threat. Spare a thought for the Congress. As if the fact that it is at a historic low and is being led by Rahul Gandhi is not enough, this new formation could relegate the INC to the third position. With the likes of Yadavs and Kumar on the same platform, there is a high probability that the Muslim voters will gravitate away from it, further alienating the grand old party. At a time when the party is desperate to find strong regional allies to take on the government, this new development will reduce its options. Meanwhile, the numbers also gives these leaders more bargaining power in dealing with the Congress.

Lastly, what does this development mean for other political parties in India. The Communists are grinning as they have always been advocating for a strong front consisting of regional players. On the other hand, the three big satraps viz Mamta, Jaya and Patnaik who have managed to beat the saffronists in their backyard are looking at this development very closely. The revival of the Janata Dal (JD) opens a new set of opportunities for them; they will now have three alternatives in the future and will be in a good position to play hard ball. Sharad Pawar who broke his alliance with the Congress just before the Maharashtra state polls too has welcomed this move. The JD will like to get him on board. Ditto with Ajit Singh who was washed out in the Union polls; though he may have his differences with the Chautalas, convincing him to join the front, considering his present political fortunes will be easy. Frankly, if the leaders do manage to win Bihar, I will not be surprised if some of the disgruntled sections within the NDA like the Akalis and Ram Vials Paswan or for that matter, Mayawati decides to do business with the new front. A host of parties including the PDP, the JMM, the TRS, the AIUDF and the AIMIM could be open to work with the JD while resisting a direct merger. In the south, the DMK and the YSRCP will be happy to extend support to the new outfit since they cannot afford to back either of the two national parties at this moment.

UTTAR PRADESH & LOK SABHA 2014

THE BATTLE OF BATTLES

Now we come to the big daddy of all - the state of Uttar Pradesh. Having encompassed the entire country, we can now spend some time analyzing the most populous state of the country. Actually, only five countries in the entire world including India have more people than UP. With 80 parliamentary seats up for grabs, the way to Delhi truly passes via Lucknow. In the past though, we have seen that none of the four major parties here have been able to win a decisive victory as far as the last three Lok Sabha elections are concerned. However, in the last two state elections, the mandate has been clear; while Maya crossed the 200 mark in 2007, Akhilesh did even better two years ago (Link). Now the question is whether any of the four main contenders can do the same in the 2014. After that stunning victory, the SP is confident of a good showing. The Congress and the RLD are hopeful of doing what they did in the last General Elections. Mayawati is keen on a comeback whereas the BJP is hopeful that the Modi wave will help them boost their figures.

ISSUES

(1) Development: While it is India's largest state, UP has lagged behind others like Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu in terms of industrial development. In spite of having extensive natural resources at its disposal, fertile soil and abundant water, majority of people continue to remain poor. One of the biggest reasons for this is has been that the local politics has been dominated by factors like caste and religion. However, this time the BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi has focused his election agenda on the plank of development. Of course this doesn't mean that there has been no caste or communal polarization by the saffron camp. However, the ground reality remains that the people here are keen to usher in development and enjoy fruits of it.

(2) Performance of the Akhilesh Yadav: It has been a little over two years since the young Akhilesh was placed at the helm of affairs in Lucknow. At 39 years old, he was one of the youngest CMs of the country and a lot was expected from him. Probably, the General Elections are the best time to see if the SP leader has been able to win the hearts of the people or not. While his regime has been true to some of its electoral promises made during the campaign, the fact remains that the law and order situation in the state has deteriorated, like in earlier Samajwadi regimes. The failure to prevent the Muzaffarnagar riots and the suspension of upright officer Durga Shakti Nagpal have been blots on the young leader's career so far.

(3) Caste Equations: As mentioned earlier, the caste equations have traditionally dominated the politics in this state since independence. The BSP supremo Mayawati whose famed 'Social Engineering' saw her sweeping the 2007 polls has gone back to the drawing board, hopeful that selection of candidates based on their caste would help her stage a grand come back. Besides, the Dalit votes, she is trying to woo the Brahmins who played a key in her victory seven years ago. The SP is dependent on the support of the Yadavs. The BJP, known as a party of the Upper Castes has roped in the Kurmi outfit - the Apna Dal in its fold.

(4) Communal Polarization: Apart from caste politics, another matter of concern in the big state is communal polarization. This certainly works here as seen during the early nineties when the BJP swept the state, riding on the sentiments following the demolition of the Babri Masjid. The candidature of Narendra Modi has made 'Secularism' a major talking point across the nation, more so in UP which accounts for nearly half of the country's total Muslim population. Moreover, after the Muzaffarnagar riots (Link) in Western UP, communal flares are running high. Amit Shah, whose role in the alleged fake encounters in Gujarat has come under the scanner has been made the head of the BJP's campaign in UP. His visit to the Ram Janmabhoomi and his call to avenge the Muzaffarnagar riots are clearly an attempt to help it win votes on religious lines. SP Muslim face Azam Khan went a step further, claiming that it were 'Muslim' soldiers in the Indian army that won the Kargil war and later even refused to apologize. Congress president Sonia Gandhi met the Shahi Imam Syed Ahmed Bukhari to help consolidate minority votes. Even Mayawati has given many seats to Muslims.

CONTENDERS

(1) Samajwadi Party (SP): There were a lot of expectations as young Akhilesh Yadav was made the CM of UP after he led the party to a handsome victory in the state assembly polls. Two years down the line though, nothing seems to have changed. While his performance has been much better than that of the preceding Mayawati regime, the young Turk's inability to protect the Muslims during the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013 has led to bad press. With his son in Lucknow, daddy Mulayum Singh Yadav is eyeing a bigger role for himself in national politics, having been a founder member of the Third Front (Link). If he does manage to win over 25 seats, he could be the Federal coalition's PM choice. Apart from highlighting their regime's 'development' work, the SP is also hoping to benefit from communal polarization, especially in the aftermath of the riots and the candidature of Narendra Modi. In fact, senior leader and outfit's Muslim face Azam Khan had been banned by the EC from campaigning for flaring up religious sentiments. Also, in a bid to stem the Modi wave, Mulayum has also decided to contest from Azamgarh, besides his traditional seat of Mainpuri. Other candidates include the CM's wife Dimple Yadav (Kannauj) and party supremo's nephews - Akshay Yadav (Firozabad) and Dharmendra Yadav (Badaun).

(2) Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP): For two long years, Behenji has virtually lost her political dominance in the big state to her bete noire - the SP. After that drubbing she got in 2012, the former UP CM is hopeful that the next Lok Sabha would see her making a grand comeback. However, the BSP's campaign has been rather lackluster. It has not been able to project itself as a strong contender here. Even the talks of alliance with the Congress, something that was doing the rounds for some time failed as Mayawati realized from her past experiences that her allies' votes do not go to her outfit. At the same time we need to keep in mind that she just cannot be written off. The Dalit leader may well spring a surprise like she has done in the past. As usual, she has relied on the caste equations to win seats. Her party's candidates include a mix of mix of SCs, STs, Muslims, Thakurs and Brahmins. Prominent amongst these are Akbar Hussain (Rampur), Shah Alam (Azamgarh), Qadir Rana (Muzaffarnagar), Mukul Upadhyaya (Ghaziabad), Satish Awana (Noida), Seema Upadhyaya (Fatehpur Sikri), and Narayan Singh (Agra).

(3) United Progressive Alliance: In 2009, the Congress performed out of its skin to win over 20 seats. This time, though it has the RLD with it, crossing even the 10 mark is going to be extremely difficult. Even former CM and veteran Congress leader Jagdambika Pal has crossed over to the BJP. The INC found itself in the centre of a controversy as its candidate Imran Masood in a video film threatened to cut Modi into pieces. He was later sent to judicial custody in what turned out to be an embarrassment for the party. As brother Rahul faced stiff competition from Smriti Irani and Kumar Vishwas, sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra came to the rescue, campaigning in the pocket boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli. Her war of words with Narendra Modi - the 'Neech Rajneeti' comment and with her cousin Varun provided fodder to the media. The party's nominees include the president Sonia Gandhi (Rae Bareli), her son and vice president Rahul Gandhi (Amethi), former state party president Rita Bahuguna (Lucknow), film stars Raj Babbar (Ghaziabad) and Nagma (Meerut), cricketer Mohammad Kaif (Phoolpur) and ministers - Sri Prakash Jaiswal (Kanpur) and Salman Khurshid (Farrukhabad).

The Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) is fighting the polls in alliance with the Congress. However, the situation for Ajit Singh led party is precarious. The Muzaffarnagar riots have led to a split between the two traditional voters in western UP - the Jats and the Muslims. It is believed that while the former are gravitating towards the BJP, the former may vote for the BSP. The Union government's decision to grant reservation for the Jats may help retain the farmer votes. Also, the party welcomed former SP leader Amar Singh (Link) some time back. Its key candidates include chief Ajit Singh (Baghpat), his son Jayant Chaudhary (Mathura), Amar Singh (Fatehpur Sikri) and his aide Jaya Prada (Rampur).

(4) National Democratic Alliance: For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its Mission 272+ to succeed, it has to win a significant number of parliamentary seats in UP. The saffron camp has come up with a two fold strategy to do well in the state that propelled it on to the national stage. Firstly, the party is banking on Modi's development agenda to strike a chord with the electorate who seem to have been left out of the India growth story. Secondly, for the BJP which came into prominence banking on the Hindutva plank following the demolition of the Babri Masjid, the Muzaffarnagr riots seems to have given it just the kind of the opening that it was looking for. Narendra Modi's close aide Amit Shah was deputed to UP to strengthen the grass root organization and help the party increase its tally. In fact, Shah was gagged by the Election Commission for his revenge remark while campaigning in the communally sensitive Western UP. However, he was let off after he expressed regret for his remark. Another controversy that the party found itself in was the candidature of Modi from Varanasi, a seat represented by senior leader M M Joshi. Though the saffron leader was said to be keen to re-contest from there, he was 'forced' to move to Kanpur. The BJP's candidates include Narendra Modi (Varanasi), Murali Manohar Joshi (Kanpur), Rajnath Singh (Lucknow), Menaka Gandhi (Pilibhit), Varun Gandhi (Sultanpur) and General V K Singh (Ghaziabad).

The Kurmi outfit Apna Dal (AD) has entered into an electoral alliance with the BJP. Party leader Anupriya Patel, who is the daughter of the party founder late Dr. Sonelal Patel will contest from Mirzapur. Meanwhile, Harivansh Singh has been given the ticket from Pratapgarh. The coalition is expected to help the NDA get the support of the Patel community which is strong in some pockets.

(5) Aam Admi Party (AAP): Three of the top AAP leaders are contesting from the big state as the newly launched outfit is planning to make a sensational debut this General Elections. Chief Arvind Kejriwal who resigned as the Delhi CM has filed his nomination from Varanasi against Narendra Modi in what is expected to be the mother of all battles. The kind of support he is getting shows that the temple town along the Ganga is not going to be a cake walk for the Gujarat CM. Poet turned politician Kumar Vishwas has jumped into the fray against another big name - Rahul Gandhi from Amethi. Having come to his constituency nearly three months ago, he is keen to work upon the early bird advantage. Another AAP leader and former journalist Shazia Ilmi is contesting against former Army General V K Singh from Ghaziabad.

PAST PERFORMANCE

In 1996, it was the BJP which swept the state winning as many as 52 seats and the Samajwadis emerged as the second largest party in UP while the Congress and the BSP were reduced to single digits. Two years later, the saffronists ended up with 57 seats, the highest that any party has got in the big state over the last two decades. While the NDA came to power in 1999, its tally here was reduced by half. The SP came in at a close second and the BSP and the INC crossed into the two digit mark. Five years down the line, Mulayum's party reached its zenith, winning 35 seats. Even Maya bagged 19 seats while the BJP's numbers plummeted to just 10, one more than the INC. Finally in 2009, the SP slipped to 23 although it did end up as the largest party in the state. The big surprise was the Congress which bagged 21 seats, one more than the BSP. The BJP cut a sorry figure at 10.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Samajwadi Party (SP)	23	35	26	20	16
Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	20	19	14	4	6
Congress	21	9	10	-	5
Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)	5	3	2	-	-
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	10	10	29	57	52
Others	1	4	4	4	6

(1) There were 85 seats in the state of Uttar Pradesh before the creation of Uttarakhand in 2001.

MY PREDICTIONS

The Modi wave in Uttar Pradesh coupled by some smart decisions made on the ground by Amit Shah will help the BJP and its allies win close to 50 seats. The SP will be the runners up and may win up to 15 seats. The BSP will struggle to cross into two digits whereas the Congress-RLD combine will virtually be wiped out.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	NDA (BJP + AD)	46-50
2	Samajwadi Party (SP)	12-16
3	Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	7-11
4	UPA (Congress + RLD)	3-7
5	Others	0-2

WATCH OUT

(1) A Modi wave in UP? With Amit Shah supervising the party campaign in Uttar Pradesh, many are expecting a Modi wave in UP. The state sends 80 MPs to the Lower House and a good showing here could propel the NDA close to the half way mark. The best showing that the saffronists had here was in 1998 when the BJP under Vajpayee won as many as 57 seats. There is no doubt that Modi's nomination from Varanasi was an effort to help the party's cause in the country's most populous state (Link). The question is whether the saffron camp can replicate that success, especially with the grass root organization being weakened and the star emergence of the two regional players - the SP and the BSP.

(2) Performance of the three regional players and their role in the Third Front: For the Third Front to have any chance whatsoever of coming to power, the regional parties have to do well. In fact with the SP and the BSP chiefs not seeing eye to eye, practically only one of the two i.e. the one which finishes with more seats could be a part of such a confederation. With the SP winning a massive electoral victory in 2012 state polls, Mulayum is expected to do well. The former UP CM like many other regional players is said to be nursing PM ambitions. Mayawati too is keen to make a comeback. After being demolished in 2012, the Dalit ki Beti is hopeful that a 20+ show could help her regain some lost pride. Another small regional player is the RLD. Having been a part of both the NDA and the UPA over the last five years, it would not take much for him to change loyalties and help either of the three major coalitions in case they fall short of numbers in the Parliament.

(3) Can the Congress do a miracle, yet again? In 2009, the Congress did a extremely well, winning as many as 21 seats in UP. Considering that the party's organization has completely eroded here in the past, the performance was incredible. As usual, many Congressmen gave the credit of that spectacular showing to Rahul Gandhi. Of course, that bubble bursted in the 2012 state assembly elections when in spite of heavy campaigning by Baba, the grand old party failed to even cross the 25 mark; in fact, their performance even in the family boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli was bad. Besides, many believed that Varun Gandhi's controversial statement in Pilibhit helped consolidation of the Muslim votes in favor of the INC. Now, in 2014 the Gandhi in the saffron camp has not made any such statement. So the question is whether the Congress can even come to close to that figure in got in the last Lok Sabha polls.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

THE RETURN OF THE KRAKEN

AMAR SINGH JOINS RLD TO REJUVENATE HIS POLITICAL CAREER

Who is creepier of the two? Amar Singh (Left) or the Kraken (Right)

I enjoy watching movies based on mythology and one of my favorites is the Clash of the Titans. All of you who have seen the movie will recollect the plot where Hades - the God of the Underworld revives the dreaded monster Kraken to strike fear in the minds of the people and make them respect the Gods. Of course, his sinister aim is to depose his brother Zeus who had tricked him earlier. Just like in the movie, the Kraken of Indian politics - Amar Singh is back from his political hibernation of four years; in fact the old guy is back with a bang. Earlier this week, the former Samajwadi Party leader joined Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). While age may have caught up with him, he still spoke like a Neta, apologizing for his remarks he had made earlier while he was associated with Mulayum's outfit and pledged his allegiance to Sonia Gandhi. Flanked by his protege Jaya Pradha, the only Bollywood personality who was by his side when he was unwell, Singh said that he was still open to the idea of joining the Congress, if invited by the UPA Chairperson to do so. The controversial businessman cum political has seen both the ups an downs of Rajneeti over the last six years. The 2014 election is going to be the most important battle of Singh's political career. A victory will be a fresh lease of life whereas a defeat will see him meet the same fate that Kraken did in the Hollywood movie I referred to earlier.

The Highs and the Lows: While he is controversy's favorite child, the former SP leader will be widely remembered for his role in the Indo-Nuclear deal. If you think that Amar Singh played a key role in the negotiation with US officials then you are absolutely wrong. All these high-level discussions are too much for the 'pea-brained' Amar to handle. While you can laugh on his knowledge, you just cannot deny that he can play his cards really well. As the Left withdrew their outside support to the UPA I government over the Indo-US Nuclear Deal, Mulayum Singh and the Samajwadi Party rushed to fill in the numbers, making sure that Manmohan Singh's only tough decision in his decade long tenure was passed in the Parliament. Amar Singh who was then a member of the Rajya Sabha from UP and the General Secretary of the SP played a crucial role in this episode. In fact, he was accused of trying to bribe three BJP MPs to vote in favor of the Bill. The friendship between the INC and the SP was short lived; as they went to the polls in 2009 without any pre-poll agreement, the two parties ended with 21 and 23 seats each. However, Mulayum's dream of becoming the 'King-Maker' in Delhi was shattered as the Congress crossed the 200 mark on its own and the UPA won a clear majority. Besides, it was in the same year that differences between two of Mulayum's top lieutenants - Amar and party's Muslim face Azam Khan came into prominence over Jaya Pradha's nomination from the Rampur constituency. At that time, the SP chief had reiterated his faith in Singh and expelled Khan for six years.

However, Amar Singh's fortunes began to slide in the later half of 2009. The figures of the 2009 Lok Sabha polls shocked Mulayum to the core. The BSP, in spite of being in power for nearly three year had the largest vote share of 27 percent whereas the Muslims, one of SP's primary vote bank were drifting to the Congress. With his eyes on the 2012 state polls (Link), Mulayum started wooing Amar's bete noire Azam Khan. Besides, the former General Secretary's high profile life style and Bollywood connections were seen as a stark contrast to the principal of Socialism which is 'supposed' to be SP's ideology by many loyalists. In January 2010, Amar Singh resigned from all party post and the following month was officially thrown out of the party. The next four years saw the shrewd politician see the lowest of lows. Many of his high society friends including Bade Bhaiyya, a certain Amitabh Bachchan refused to stand up for him. In fact, Jaya Bachchan who was a MP in the Upper House refused to resign in protest to the treatment meted out to her Devarji (Brother-in-law). The release of the 2006 tapes which shows him talking to politicians, Bollywood personalities, journalists and others proved to be a major embarrassment for him. In September 2011, he was jailed for a few days by the Supreme Court under the Prevention of Corruption Act for his alleged role in offering bribe to three BJP MPs in 2009. He formed a new political party - the Rashtriya Lok Manch but the experiment was a failure. For the next two years, the old war horse spent most of his time in hospital with many writing him off. However, in what seems to be a final stand, he has joined Chaudhary Ajit Singh's RLD along with aide Jaya Pradha in an attempt to salvage his political career.

Joining the RLD: As he was readying for his political comeback, it is certain that Amar would have weighed all his options wisely. Considering the fact that he was never a mass leader, reviving the now defunct Lok Manch was not an option. Although UP CM Akhilesh Yadav had recently mentioned him while speaking to the press, there was no way he was joining Mulayum back, at least after the humiliation he had faced earlier. Walking into the BJP would hurt his 'secular' credentials. In fact, Amar would have loved to join the Congress. It was speculated that Jaya Pradha was in touch with certain state Congress leaders to contest on an INC ticket. However, her demand to 'rehabilitate' her political mentor was something that the party thought could hurt it politically, considering the many controversies that Singh has courted in the past. As such, the only feasible option seems to have been the Rashtriya Lok Dal. Remember the three Singhs - Mulayum, Ajit and Amar were a part of the same government earlier when the SP and the RLD were allies in Lucknow. Secondly, with Ajit Singh joining the UPA, Amar would still be a part of the Congress-led coalition, if not the INC itself. It is very much certain that Amar's entry into the RLD had the approval of the Congress High Command.

How will the RLD benefit? Chaudhary Ajit Singh has been the 'most loyal' ally of the Congress in UPA II. However, like all constituents of the UPA, it is facing acute anti-incumbency. And to add to it, the Muzaffarnagar riots (Link) in Western UP has led to a 'trust-deficit' between the Jats and the Muslims, the two communities from where Ajit draws high strength. It is believed that the Jats are moving towards the BJP whereas the Muslims might go with the Congress or even the BSP. As such, Chaudhary is putting a lot of pressure on the Congress to help him in the elections. Two of the 5 MPs from Ajit Singh's party who had won the last elections have been expelled for anti-party activities. The Manmohan regime's decision to bring Jats under the ambit of OBC reservation was a clear move to earn brownie points in Haryana, Rajasthan and UP. Certainly, it is going to benefit the RLD in wooing back the community too. 

Secondly, with Jaya Pradha having won Lok Sabha polls from UP twice in the past, her entry into the outfit may increase Ajit's final tally by one. Of course, Ajit Singh has to carry the baggage of Amar's multiple controversies and flip flops from the past which opponents will use to embarrass him and his outfit. However, in the upcoming battle royal, it seems to be a price that the RLD chief is willing to pay. Meanwhile, the Congress and the RLD have finalized their seat-sharing formula for the upcoming polls with eight seats going into the latter's kitty. Jayant Chaudhary, the son and the successor of the party chief is likely to contest from Mathura. It is believed that Jaya will may contest from Bijnor whereas the Kraken, I mean Amar is certain to fight the elections from Fatehpur-Sikri.