A PLAN FOR REVIVAL

A FIVE POINT AGENDA FOR RESURRECTION OF THE CONGRESS

The much hyped Congress Working Committee (CWC) meeting scheduled for today ended on a rather familiar note with 'interim' President Sonia Gandhi agreeing to hang on to the top post for six more months. Sparks began to fly late last evening as 23 prominent Congressmen in a letter addressed to the former NAC Chairperson, raised pertinent questions on the lack of visible leadership within the grand old party. Even as Gandhi sycophants stepped in to defend the INC's first family against this unexpected onslaught, former President Rahul Gandhi decided to take the 'dissenters' head on, and as per ANI sources, accused them of 'colluding with the BJP'. Moments later, former minister Kapil Sibal who was one of the signatories to the letter put out a sarcastic tweet hitting back at the Waynad MP. Another prominent 'dissenter', former External Affairs minister Ghulam Nabi Azad threatened to resign if Rahul could prove his charges. Clearly stung by these attacks, Rahul denied making the remark as loyalists including former PM Manmohan Singh, former Defence Minister A K Anthony et all convinced the aging Sonia to stay on.

Though I am no fan of either the Congress or the Gandhis, it is important that the party somehow puts its house in order as soon as possible. For a vibrant democracy, a robust Opposition that takes on the Government on its policies and stands by it during times of national crisis is an absolute must. The Congress has failed so far, on both these fronts. Somehow, the INC has not yet recovered from the jolt of May 2014 and over the years, the abysmal state of affairs within the outfit only continues to worsen. This has further added to the aura of invincibility surrounding the BJP led by the powerful Modi-Shah duo. Even otherwise, the Congress is the inheritor of a rich legacy, having been one of the many prominent players in the national movement. While it is true that the INC of the freedom struggle is a far cry from the INC of today, we must also acknowledge that it is this organization that gave us some of our greatest founding fathers including Nehru, Patel, Bose and the Mahatma. With no full time leader, almost zero inter-party democracy and an outdated ideology, it is highly unlikely that the INC is going to witness a change in political fortunes anytime soon. Even as India's most successful political party struggles to find panacea for the many problems it faces, here is my five point agenda for a possible Congress revival.

(1) A full time President, preferably Rahul Gandhi: For years now, the Congress' longest serving President Sonia Gandhi has not been keeping well. Considering that the Amethi MP is under medication, it is mind-boggling that she is forced to stay on at the helm of affairs in the INC, in spite of the fact that she has offered to step down on multiple occasions. The logic behind this seems to be the fact that the grand old party needs a Gandhi to run the show smoothly. The family is apparently the glue that holds the many factions within the party together. With Sonia needing a break and Priyanka shifting focus to UP, it is imperative that the party leaders convince the 'reluctant Crown Prince' to take back the reins of the Congress. Will this move succeed? I am not sure; Rahul Gandhi's lack luster report card does not inspire confidence either. However, this move will at least clear the leadership mess and set in a clear hierarchy with the Congress. As and when that happens, the Waynad MP must usher in a set of reforms to empower Youth Congress organizations and promote internal democracy, topics which he has spoken about in the past but which, in pure Rahulesque fashion were not followed up during his first tenure.

(2) A clear Ideology: In what can be described as the most passionate speech in his political career so far, Rahul Gandhi while speaking at the AICC in January 2013 described the Congress as follows: 'Congress Party ek soch hain aur yeah soch hum sabke dil mein hain'. It is time that the young Gandhi scion articulated what this soch (idea) is and what it stands for. For decades, the INC has been seen as a Centrist, pro-Socialist, Secular party though not all of its policies have been in accordance to these lofty ideals. The aggressive pro-Hindutva stance of the BJP and its consecutive victories since 2014 seem to have left a deep impact on the grand old party, forcing it to project itself a much softer Hindutav party. It was in the wake of this that Rahul went temple hoping prior to UP 2017 polls and described himself as a 'Janayu-dhari Shiv Bhakt'. Multiple flip flops, especially on issues of national importance like surgical strikes and the building of the Ram Mandir have given more fodder for the BJP to project its nemesis as weak and rudderless. Even as traditional vote banks including Dalits, women and tribals seem to be gravitating to the saffron outfit, the party is fast losing its ground even in its former strongholds like Maharasthra, Andhra-Telangana and North East. There is an urgent need for the Congress to reflect upon what is the 'idea of India' that it arrogates to itself and claims to be fighting for every now and then. It needs an ideology that a young, inspirational India of the 21st century can connect with.

(3) Promoting Regional Leaders: During the decade since its defeat at the hands of the UPA in 2004, it was state leaders like Narendra Modi, Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh who kept the saffron flag flying in the heartland even as the party faced an existential crisis at the national level. In fact, in what was a tribute to the BJP's culture of nurturing dynamic regional satraps, it was the Gujarat CM who brought it to power at the Center after 10 years of warming the Opposition benches. In sharp contrast, it has been the Congress policy since the days of Indira Gandhi to cut wings of ambitious state chieftains in a bid to enforce the power of the High Command. Nine out of ten Congress CMs are Gandhi loyalists who pose no threat to the power and prestige of the first family. Evidently, this culture has back fired. While the Congress tries to fix the mess in the national leadership, the need of the hour is to take on the BJP at the state level. The appointment of Priyanka Gandhi as the AICC in-charge of eastern UP and the elevation of PAAS leader Hardik Patel in Gujarat and strategist D K Shiv Kumar in Karnataka are steps in the right direction. Incumbent CMs like Captain Amarinder Singh (Punjab), Bhupesh Baghel (Chattisgarh) and Ashok Gehlot (Rajasthan) need to be given full backing of the top brass amd more responsibility in framing the future direction of the INC.

(4) Bridging the Young-Old Divide: For a decade that the UPA was in power, the right mix of dynamic youngsters owing allegiance to Rahul Gandhi and a section of experienced loyalists believed to be close to Sonia was seen as the secret for the success of the Congress. As the old timers grabbed the plum ministries, the youngsters seemed to be contend with donning the hat of MoS. Cut to present and the rebellions of Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot paints a sad picture of a party that is imploding from within thanks to the frictions between the pro-Rahul and pro-Sonia camps. While Sachin was convinced to stay back, the grand old party has already lost some of its most promising young Turks including Scindia Jr., Hemanta Biswas Sarma, Pradyot Manikya Debbarma and Ajoy Kumar. Several other next gen leaders like Milind Deora, Sanjay Nirupam, Navjyot Singh Sidhu and Naveen Jindal are reportedly unhappy with being left out from the scheme of things within the Congress. The INC needs to think how it can manage its demographic divide and reap rich dividends out of it.

(5) Getting more Allies on board: Last but not the least, the INC needs to work towards broadening the UPA by getting more parties on board in its fight against the BJP led NDA. A formal alliance with the Left Front at least in Kerala for the national elections will make sure 20 seats are kept out of reach of the saffron outfit. Similarly, other anti-BJP parites like Mamta Bannerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC), Kejriwal's Aam Admi Party (AAP) and HDK's Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) will only improve its tally. However, for the broadening of UPA, the INC should be ready to make sacrifices; it has already shown that it is ready for this by tying up with the Shiv Sena in Maharasthra and allowing Kumarswamy to become the CM in Karnataka in spite of winning less than 40 seats in the 220 odd strong state legislative assembly. However, more would be needed in the days to come for the Congress to reclaim its long lost pre-eminent position in Indian politics.

NEW PRESIDENT, NEW CHALLENGES

CHALLENGES BEFORE AMIT SHAH AS HE IS APPOINTED BJP PRESIDENT

Courtesy: In.Com

Indeed the BJP fought hard and won a memorable victory in the 2014 General Elections. After being out of power at the Centre for a decade, the saffron outfit made a strong comeback; in fact with 282 seats, it registered the best tally for a single party in the last three decades. A large credit for this splendid performance should rightly go to PM Narendra Modi; the former Gujarat CM used his 'no nonsense, pro-development' image to the full advantage; first he re-energized the cadre and then projected himself as the only viable alternative to a nation that was simmering with anti-incumbency and waiting for an opportunity to teach the 'corrupt' Congress a lesson that it is unlikely to forget soon. Of course while the victory was a collective effort on the part of the saffron party, rather the NDA and the entire Sangh Parivar, one of the heroes of this victory is Modi's trusted lieutenant and former minister in Gujarat cabinet - Amit Shah.

The controversial politician who was even jailed briefly for his alleged involvement in the Sohrabuddin 'fake' encounter case was deputed by Modi to Uttar Pradesh as soon as he was appointed as the head of the BJP's campaign team for the big polls last year (Link). And boy, the move proved to be a master stroke, isn't it? In about an year that he spent in the 'mother of all states', Shah used his political acumen to completely re-organize the local party structure; he cut anti-Modi elements within the saffron camp like Vinay Katiyar to size, entered into alliances with smaller outfits and social organizations, gave 'provocative' speeches (Link) and even chose candidates. His hard work paid off; the BJP and its partner - the Apna Dal (AD) won 73 of the 80 seats from Uttar Pradesh even bettering its previous best tally of 50 odd seats at the height of the Ram Janma Bhoomi agitation way back in 1991 (Link). As such, after former President Rajnath Singh was sworn in as the Home Minister in the Modi cabinet, there were no surprises as the master strategist was appointed as the president of the BJP earlier this week.

Hailed by many, especially in the Hindu right wing as a modern day Chanakya, Shah has been rewarded for the brilliant result that he got for the party in the big state. Winning over 90 percent of the total seats in a vast and diverse state like UP wherein voting patterns are massively influenced by factors like caste and religion is no small task. Now let me throw in some statics that will help you comprehend the magnitude of Amit Shah's achievements. The BJP in UP won more seats than what the UPA won across the country. Of the seven seats that the NDA did not bag here, five went to the Yadavs and two to the Gandhis. I understand that certain segments do have strong reservations against him, especially considering his alleged role in 'communal' activities in the past. However, rather sadly, the standards in our politics are so low that it is very difficult to find politicians with a 'clean' image. Moreover, knowing that the new PM likes to work with people close to him, there is little doubt that the appointment has his blessings too. After all, the two have been close since the early 80s when they worked as pracharaks for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

Politics is tough business and there is no time to rest on past laurels. And probably few know it more than Amit Shah. Though results of the General Polls may still be fresh in the minds of BJP leaders and its supporters, the Gujarati leader knows that his work is cut out. While the saffron outfit and its allies may have a big majority in the Lok Sabha, the government is still far away from the halfway mark in the Upper House. This makes the upcoming state elections extremely crucial, after all a vast majority of the members here are elected by members of the state legislature. In the next six months, at least three states - Maharashtra (Link), Haryana (Link) and Jammu Kashmir (Link) will go to the polls. One has to remember that all three are presently being ruled by the Congress and its allies. Amongst them, the three account for 28 of the 250 seats in the Rajya Sabha. To add to them, there are a few other states that may see snap polls anytime soon. The Delhi assembly has been in suspended animation for over eight months (Link); the Uttarakhand government is looking shaky after the defection of Pauri MP Satpal Maharaj to the saffron side after being side-lined in the Congress for long (Link); the JMM-INC alliance in Jharkhand is on a sticky wicket and the drubbing that the allies got in the General Elections has made the matters worse. Shah has to make sure that the momentum from the General Polls is taken forward and the party and its coalition partners win each of these states.

Another thing at the top of Shah's priority list is expansion in the East and the South where the party has largely been an insignificant player. In fact, the new president has made this pretty clear via twitter a few days after settling in his new role. A hallmark of the saffron outfit's stupendous victory earlier this year was that the BJP did extremely well even outside its traditional base in the Hindi heart land. While we all know that Modi magic played a key role in this, it is up to Shah & Co. to make sure that this win helps them carve out a solid vote bank for the BJP outside its 'comfort zone'. After winning all three parliamentary seats in Jammu and Ladakh regions of J&K, the saffronists are expected to at least double its last tally of 11 seats in the state assembly which will make it a sought after ally for the Mufti-led PDP in case of a hung assembly. The rout faced by the Left Front in Bengal (Link) and Kerala (Link), plus the improvement in BJP's vote share here has given a big fillip to the local party organization. In the coming years, one should not be surprised if these two states feature high in the party's future plans. In Tamil Nadu too, the outfit's ability to put together a rainbow alliance (Link) and then win the Kannyakumari parliamentary seat has shown that it is carving out a space for itself in state politics. Surely, this is an opening that Shah would like to capitalize on. The good will earned in Telangana (Link) over the BJP's support to the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh can be leveraged to its advantage and you can bet that this will surely be a part of the new president's agenda. On similar terms, the good show put up by the BJP in Haryana, Assam (Link) and Arunachal Pradesh (Link) in the last General Elections provides a golden opportunity for Shah to consolidate the saffron party's position here too.

While the margin of BJP's victory may undermine the role played by its allies in 2014, one has to realize that the BJP cannot afford to break its friendship with any of its existing 20 odd partners. Although the Modi mania worked in the General Elections, there is no doubt that the allies (Link) are important in state elections. Moreover, retaining existing friends and looking out for new ones will only further isolate its nemesis - the Congress. With the Maharashtra elections just around the corner, all is certainly not well between the BJP and its oldest ally - the Shiv Sena (SS). There were rumors that the local BJP leaders wanted the high command to scrap its existing seat sharing arrangement with the SS with some even suggesting a tie-up with Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). The new president has to make sure that its 'Mahayuti' that swept the western state earlier this year remains intact and all differences with Uddhav Thackeray's outfit are sorted out at the earliest. Also, greater co-ordination is required with Paswan's LJP after the consolidation of anti-BJP block - the JD(U), the RJD and the Congress considering that Bihar assembly completes it term next year. Also, it is in the interest of the saffron camp if the half rainbow alliance in Tamil Nadu is intact, at least till it can get AIADMK in the NDA, which in itself is an arduous task. Also, it is extremely crucial to have at least working relation with other big regional players including K Chandrashekar Rao's TRS, Jaganmohan Redddy's YSRCP, Mufti's PDP and Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF.

Challenge Number 4 will be pacifying the seniors who were unhappy with Modi and Rajnath Singh for not considering their views during the course of the 2014 polls. Now that the BJP is back in the government after a gap of 10 years with that record shattering win, it will be a good for the party if Shah manages to placate the old guard. With his vast experience in Indian politics and in the functioning of the government, Lal Krishna Advani or Murali Manohar Joshi are assets that the outfit cannot afford to sideline. Also their connections with other political parties can prove to be helpful to break deadlocks in the Parliament. Meanwhile, there were reports that Jaswant Singh was keen to rejoin the saffron camp after his rebellion against the party in Barmer ended in a flop show. Getting Jaswant and his son - MLA Manvendra will send the right signal. We all know that popular southern movie star Pawan Kalyan played a key role in the TDP-BJP aliance's victory in the state as well as parliamentary polls. If the new president can somehow manage to get Pawan to merge his Jan Sena into the saffron fold, the party will be furthered strengthened in Andhra. Also Kalyan's mass appeal will help to reduce its dependence on Chandrababu Naidu. Besides, like Narendra Modi did a few months back, Shah should make an attempt to get back former BJP leader Babulal Marandi (Link) back into the party. Though he had rejected Modi's offer earlier, the rout his party faced will certainly force the JVM chief to reconsider his decision. Also, ahead of the Jharkhand assembly polls, it will further improve BJP's electoral prospects.

In the big win that the BJP won this summer, it is easy to forget that the party won just 31 percent of the total votes. In other words, considering that the NDA as a whole got about 40 percent of the votes, every 6 out of 10 Indians did not cast their vote in favor of Modi. The learning that Shah can draw from this is that in spite of being the largest political party in India in terms of numbers, the BJP is still not acceptable to many Indians. There are many who continue to associate the outfit with right wing fundamentalism, accusing it to be a party of 'Hindus' in general and 'upper castes' in particular. This also keeps a sizable chunk of the political spectrum from doing any business with the party. It will indeed be interesting to see how the Gujarati leader combats this 'perception'. Though it is good to promote 'meritocracy', Shah has to be more practical. Considering our diversity in terms of religion, caste and gender while taking decision, especially during ticket distribution will help. Another worry for many 'liberals' is that the party will be under pressure from its 'bosses' in Nagpur to promote the agenda of the RSS. Again, it is but imperative for Shah to let the RSS top brass know that it is under no obligation of either the RSS or any right wing organization like the VHP or the Bajrang Dal. Measures such has increasing the representation fo women inside the party and promoting internal democracy will also do a whole lot of good for the saffron outfit.

Born into a middle class Gujarati family in Mumbai, Amit Shah has climbed up the ladder of success only through his hard work and dedication. A Modi loyalist since the early 80s, he has excelled in every challenge that has been thrown at him be it the decimation of the Congress hold in rural Gujarat, turning around the fortunes of the Ahmedabad District Co-opertaive Bank or leading the party to an emphatic win in UP. While he has been rewarded for the results that he got for his party, heading the BJP will truly be a test of character for Modi's Man Friday. All his actions will be scrutinized and controversies will be created where none exists. Will he succeed in his latest assignment..... Well, only time will tell!

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: In.Com
Original: Amit Shah Photos (Link)

GOA & LOK SABHA 2014

WILL IT BE EVEN-STEVEN IN GOA YET AGAIN?

In 2012, the BJP created history in the small yet beautiful state of Goa as it crossed the half way mark on its own, winning a whopping 21 seats. The party had indeed played its cards well. While the incumbent Congress-NCP regime in the state was fighting charges of failing to curb illegal mining, the saffron outfit made the right moves. First, it entered into a pre-poll agreement with the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) which has a solid vote bank in the central talukas of the state. Also, Parrikar extended an olive branch to the powerful Catholic minority in Goa whom he had angered in his earlier term. At the same time, the Congress made a blunder by giving tickets to multiple candidates from the political families. After having governed the state for about two years, the Lok Sabha polls are an acid test for the former IIT alumni. In the last two General elections, both the UPA and the NDA won a seat each from the beach state. It will be interesting to see whether the BJP under Parrikar will be able to reverse this trend and storm the tiny state.

ISSUES

(1) Local versus National: With the BJP being in power for nearly two years now, the performance of the Manohar Parrikar government is going to be a key electoral issue before the 2014 General Elections. In his third term, there have been certain positives and few negatives too. Several schemes introduced by him including the Ladli Lakshmi scheme, providing an assistance of Rs 1,000/- to housewives with an annual household income of less than three lakh, another programme under which unemployed youth would get a monthly dole, the continuation of the cyber scheme and controlling the prices of fuel in the state have been lauded. At the same time, the rebellion of MLA Vishnu Wagh, the impasse over mining, the regime's U-turn over the Medium of Instruction at the primary level, its failure to cancel licenses of casinos and the recent strike by taxi drivers in the state may hurt the saffron party's prospects. 

While mixed signals are coming regarding the regime in Panaji from the people on the ground, there is no ambiguity about how the masses feel about the UPA II at the Centre. The Manmohan Singh government has failed on all accounts be it corruption, economic development, foreign affairs or defence. The BJP's poll campaign will certainly revolve around highlighting the myriad failures of the Congress led government in New Delhi. At the same time, the INC is expected to focus on local issues to counter the Parrikar government.

(2) The ban over Mining: Illegal mining in the state was probably the biggest issue during the 2012 Goa legislative polls. The BJP had accused the then Chief Minister Digamber Kamat of being involved in the multi-crore scam. Based on an affidavit filed by Prashant Bhushan and others, the Supreme Court banned mining in Goa in late 2012. Considering that mining and allied sectors are one of the pillars of the state economy, the thousands affected by the ban are feeling the pinch. In a rally in Panjim early this year, BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi has promised to revoke the ban if he is elected to power. Even the Governor lashed out at the Centre earlier this week for failing to provide a special economic package to the state to help people affected by the Court's order.

(3) The Demand for Special Status: As Goa was a former Portuguese colony, the culture here is distinct from most other parts of the country. However, in recent years, there has been a heavy influx of people coming into the beach state from other parts of the country. Besides, a large number of non-Goans and foreigners have started buying property here. This is led to fear amongst the local that they will become a minority in their own state and lose their identity. As such, time and again demands for Special status for Goa have been raised by politicians across party lines. CM Parrikar has promised to fulfill this demand in case a NDA government comes to power in New Delhi. You can certainly expect this emotive issue to come up during the elections.

(4) The Catholic Votes: The Christians account for nearly 26 percent of the total population in the state. As such, their votes matter a lot. In fact, one of the reasons for BJP to do exceedingly well in 2012 was the backing it received from the community. Earlier, Parrikar had repented for the mistakes he had done in his earlier term including cancelling the public holiday for Good Friday which had alienated the Catholics. Also, the saffron party fielded several Catholic candidates across the state. It will be interesting to see if the community will still be with the BJP or go back to the Congress, especially after the elevation of Narendra Modi.

CONTENDERS 

(1) The BJP: After crossing the half way mark on its own in the state elections, you can expect the BJP to sweep the two seats in Goa. The CM Manohar Parrikar has an extremely clean image. Moreover, the fact that he has graduated the prestigious IIT-Bombay adds more value. Over a period of time, he has proved to be one of the best administrators in the country. The saffron outfit has been the dominant player in North Goa where its candidate Shripad Naik has won multiple times. However, can the BJP wrest back the South Goa seat from the Congress is the big question. Considering the significant Catholic population, wining the Marmagao seat might be a little difficult for the party.

(2) The Congress: At present, Francisco Sardinha of the INC represents the South Goa seat in the Lower House. After being reduced to mere nine seats in last state elections, it will certainly be an uphill task for the grand old party to win even a single seat from here. However, if it can win back the trust of the Catholic community then things will change. Another factor to note is whether the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) will fight the elections in Goa with a pre-poll agreement with the Congress like in neighboring Maharashtra. If the alliance does not go through then both the constituents of the UPA are bound to doom in Goa.

(3) Others: The Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) which fought the state polls in an alliance with the BJP has not yet made its stand clear. Considering the clout of the powerful Dhawalikar brothers in the Priol-Marcaim region, it will be good for the NDA if they can convince the MGP to refrain from contesting. Former Tourism minister Mickky Paccecho's Goa Vikas Party (GVP) too has strong presence in parts of Southern Goa. An understanding with him will help gain some Christian votes. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) got a big boost when two of the state's most prominent personalities - musician Remo Fernandes and activist Dr. Oscar Rebello joined it. The candidates they choose will decide if AAP can open its account here. Former CM Dayanad Narvekar's Goa Democratic Party (GDP) and the United Goans Democratic Party (UGDP) are expected to be fringe players.

PAST PERFORMANCE 

The below chart in many ways depicts the way Goan politics has moved in last two decades. In 1996, the regional parties were dominant as the state's two original outfits - the MGP and the UGDP won a single seat each. Ironically, this was the last time that a regional party won a Lok Sabha seat from the state. In 1998, the Congress won both the seats whereas in the very next year, it was the BJP that swept Goa. In the last two polls, while the BJP has won the North Goa seat, the South Goa seat has gone to the INC. Both in 2004 and 2009, the Congress and the NCP had fought the elections in a pre-poll alliance. 

Political Party	1996	1998	1999	2004	2009
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	-	-	2	1	1
Congress (INC)	-	2	-	1	1
Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP)	1	-	-	-	-
United Goans Democratic Party (UGDP)	1	-	-	-	-

MY PREDICTIONS

While Parrikar's approval rating may not be sky high at the moment I think the BJP is the strongest contender here to bag both seats. Three-time MP Shripad Naik is likely to sail through in the North and the Catholics seems to have no reason to desert the saffron outfit. Moreover, the CM's rather soft approach on the Medium of Instruction in schools was seen as an attempt to appease the Christians. It will be beneficial if the party can persuade its ally, the MGP to refrain from putting candidates. The Congress will find it hard to retain South Goa, especially after the bad governance of the UPA II. However, the tie-up with the NCP will help. Meanwhile, if they can rope in Paccecho's GVP then its fortunes in Marmagao may change. 

	Political Party/Alliance	Expected Seats
1	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	1-2
2	UPA (Congress+NCP)	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) The Wounded Tiger: After jumping several ships, Vishnu Wagh contested the 2012 elections from the St. Andre constituency and won. Denied a ministerial berth, he has been sulking for long and even sent overtures to the NCP. On a visit to a social gathering organized by a local NCP leader, he was alleged attacked by BJP goons. A few weeks back, he was stripped of all his positions in the government by the CM. Wagh has now dared the BJP to expel him. He knows that if he willing resigns, he will no longer be a MLA. It is speculated that he may join the NCP and contest the North Goa parliamentary seat against Shripad. 

(2) The Ripple Effect: In 2005, months after the NDA was dislodged from power, a group of four BJP legislators deserted the party and joined the Congress. In fact, Goa is a state known for its political instability. Vishnu Wagh is already in rebellion. Thought the government still enjoys the support of about 23 MLAs, it will not take much the woo the MGP away. In case, the UPA wins this election, you can be pretty sure that Parrikar will not complete his full term in spite of a handsome victory in 2012.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

MAHARASHTRA & LOK SABHA 2014

UPA OR NDA: WHO WILL WIN THIS FACE-OFF?

With 48 seats, Maharashtra is numerically the second most important state from the perspective of the upcoming General Elections. In this key state, the battle lines have been drawn as the UPA comprising of the Congress and the NCP are taking on a formidable opposition stitched together by the BJP. Dubbed as the 'Mahayuti' or the 'Grand Alliance', it includes the Shiv Sena, the Republican Party of India (Athavale), the Swabhiman Shektari Sanghatana (SSS) and the Rashtriya Samaj Party (RSP). While the saffron outfit may have built up a strong coalition to take on the ruling regime, there is a constant fear that Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNA), which has stayed away from the formation, may cause a split in the Marathi votes, thereby helping the UPA like it did in 2009. Meanwhile, with the term of the present legislative assembly ending in about six months time, it is highly likely that even the Lok Sabha polls may be dominated by a mixture of local as well as national issues. 

ISSUES

(1) Anti-incumbency... at State and the Centre: The Congress and the NCP has been in power in Maharashtra since 1999. Now this is certainly a fact they can be proud of. But the problem is that the kind of anti-incumbency against the Congress-NCP combine is huge and many believe that after reaching the peak, its performance can only go downwards from here. Besides, all is not smooth between the two alliance partners. Although he did rule out any formal partnership with the BJP, NCP supremo Sharad Pawar and his party colleague Praful Patel have both dismissed the need for a debate on BJP’s PM candidate Narendra Modi’s role in the Gujarat riots. With 'Secularism' being the glue that keeps the UPA together, Pawar's clean chit to Modi has certainly raised many eyebrows.

Adding to their woes is the fact that there is anti-incumbency against the UPA II government at the Centre. Both the Congress and the NCP have been in power in New Delhi since 2004. The disastrous performance of the Manmohan Singh government is going to hit them hard in most states and Maharashtra is no exception. You can expect the BJP and the Senas to raise topics like price rise and inflation on which the Central government has failed to deliver.

(2) Corruption: If there is one issue that UPA II will ever be remembered for, it is for sure going to be its inability to tackle corruption in the country. Countless scams including 2G, Common Wealth Games, Coal-gate and Chopper-gate have proved that neither the grand old party nor the UPA government has the guts to tackle this menace. And the government in Mumbai too is not far behind. The names of several top Congress leaders including former Chief Ministers Vilasrao Deshmukh, Ashok Chavan, Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde and Shivajirao Nilangekar were named in an inquiry into the Aadarsh Society scam which was partially accept by the state government, that too after a public rap from the Gandhis. Similarly, the multi-crore Irrigation scam and the alleged role of NCP leader Ajit Pawar is another blot on the incumbent regime.

(3) The MNS factor: Former BJP President Nitin Gadkari’s meetings with Raj Thackeray led to many speculations over the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena entering the grand alliance. Considering the domestic politics in the Thackeray household, it seems next to impossible for the two Senas to come together. The UPA is heavily banking on Raj to split the Marathi votes and this seems to be its only hope to end up with a decent tally. However, there were reports in some sections of the media that the MNS may not contest the Lok Sabha polls at all and rather concentrate on the state elections, in bid to consolidate its standings. If this is true, then the BJP and its allies can be expected to walk away with sizable number of seats from Maharashtra.

CONTENDERS

Now that the formations are clear, I think that we should talk about the alliances and their chances instead of focusing on individual parties.

(1) The UPA: The Congress is on a sticky wicket. Prithviraj Chavan who was handpicked by Sonia Gandhi to be the Chief Minister has done a fair job. However, the rejection and then the partial acceptance of the Aadarsh Inquiry report – a move which seems to have been taken under political compulsions by his government will hit his personal credibility. The scam has dented the prospects of the grand old party and is a near death blow to the political ambitions of Ashok Chavan. With Vilasrao Deshmukh dead, it is up to the SC leader and Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde to lead the Congress campaign here. As such it will be in the interest of the Congress if the leader from Solapur can control his language – his remarks on media and Arvind Kejriwal are only going to woo the people away from the UPA.

The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has never looked so weak ever since its inception in 1999 (Link). Like its erstwhile UPA ally - the DMK, the NCP has become synonymous with corruption. Most opinion polls predict that Pawar's outfit may be reduced to single digits. Unlike the great captains who prefer to go down with the sinking ship, the Maratha strongman has got himself elected to the Rajya Sabha. Pawar's daughter Supriya Sule and former cabinet minister Praful Patel will lead the party's charge in Maharashtra. Besides, the NCP will be hoping that its prominent state leaders like Sule's cousin Ajit and former deputy CMs R R Patil and Chaggan Bhujbal will help the outfit do well in their respective strongholds.

(2) The NDA: After warming the Opposition benches for long, the saffronists are sensing victory. With political analysts believing that Maharashtra could one of the states that could see them do well, the BJP has tried its best to give itself a good chance from here. The entry of the RPI (A) and the SSS into the NDA fold will help the coalition woo Dalits and farmers. More importantly, it has put its house in order. Earlier reports suggesting fiction between the Gopinath Munde and Nitin Gadkari factions of the party in Maharashtra have all but disappeared. The BJP is expected to ride on the NaMo wave and counter the UPA on issues like corruption, inflation and economic slump.

The Shiv Sena (SS), which was written off about three years ago will be fighting to retain its political significance in the state. Though the party witnessed a split in its ranks after the dynamic Raj Thackeray walked away to form the MNS, a third straight victory in the Mumbai Municipal polls and the public out pour following the death of supremo Balasaheb indicated that the SS was still an important player in the state. The Lok Sabha and the later state elections of 2014 is a lithmus test for party president Uddhav Thackeray as well as the Shiv Sena with few of its leaders crossing over to the Congress or the NCP. If it can end up with over 12 seats, it would emerge as a force to reckon with even on the Central stage and Balasaheb's choice of his son Uddhav to lead his party after him will be justified. Like the NCP, the year 2014 will be extremely crucial in the political prospects of this party.

A third member of the 'Mahayuti' is Ramdas Athavale's Republican Party of India (A). The Dalit leader was with the UPA in 2009 and has represented Pandharpur and Mumbai North Central in the Lok Sabha earlier. The presence of the Dalit party like RPI (A) in the grand coalition is highly symbolic too as it helps the BJP to get more low caste votes. Raju Shetti's Swabhiman Shetkari Sanghatana (SSS) is popular amongst the farmers, especially in the Hatkanangle region. The entry of Mahadeo Jankar's Rashtriya Samaj Party (RSP) at the last moment will again help in consolidation of the anti-UPA votes.

(3) Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS): The only thing that prevent the NDA from doing well in Maharashtra is Raj Thackeray. Whether you like him or not, the MNS chief is a force to reckon with. His call for his supporters to attack officials if they ask for toll led to violence at many places recently. Many see him as the 'true successor' to his uncle Balasaheb and the kind of emotional connect he has with the traditional Sena base is indeed enviable. With Nitin Gadkari opening back channel links with him, there were reports indicating that he might join the 'Mahayuti'. However, nothing is clear in this regards. At the same time, several smaller parties like Jayant Patil's Peasants and Worker's Party and Vinay Kore's Jan Surajya Party are keen to ally with Raj to form a Third Front.

(4) Aam Admi Party (AAP): While the party would have done extremely well in the state had anti-corruption crusader Anna Hazare lend its support to them, the AAP is still hopeful that it can replicate its success in Delhi in the financial capital of Mumbai, at least on a much smaller scale. The first list of probable candidates has some big names like banker Meera Sanyal (Mumbai - South), activist Mayank Gandhi (Mumbai - North) and Vijay Pandhare (Nashik) who helped expose the irrigation scam.

PAST PERFORMANCE

Looking back into the past, the NDA will be hoping to replicate its superlative performance of 1996 when the BJP and the Sena bagged 33 of the 48 seats in the state. However, they could not hold that for long. The unpopularity of the SS-BJP government under Manohar Joshi in Mumbai saw the allies losing ground to the Congress. With Sharad Pawar still with the INC, the tables were turned as the Congress took home 33 seats, reducing the saffron partners to 10. The following elections though, saw a different trend. After Pawar formed the NCP over the foreign origin issue of Sonia Gandhi, the BJP emerged as the largest party here with a tally of 15 while the 13 candidates of the Shiv Sena made the cut. The 2004 polls saw a close contest with the NDA holding a marginal upper hand here although it was the Congress-led alliance that emerged as the winner nationwide. The UPA dominated 2009 finsihing with 25 seats whereas the NDA took 20.

Political Party	1996	1998	1999	2004	2009
Congress (INC)	15	33	10	13	17
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)	N/A	N/A	6	9	8
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	18	4	15	12	9
Shiv Sena (SS)	15	6	13	13	11
Others	-	5	4	1	3

MY PREDICTIONS

The Congress and the NCP have stuck to their 2009 formula for seat sharing with the INC contesting 26 and leaving 22 for Pawar's outfit. The seat sharing amongst the constituents of the grand alliance are not yet finalized. You can definitely expect some fiction here considering that there are 5 parties with each trying to maximize its numbers.Meanwhile, I predict the NDA to cross the 25 mark. The UPA will drop seats but will not be routed. The NCP's performance will be below average.

	Coalition	Expected Seats
1	United Progressive Alliance (INC-NCP)	15-20
2	National Democratic Alliance (BJP-SS-RPI(A)-SSS-RSP)	22-27
3	Others (MNS/AAP)	1-5

WATCH OUT

(1) The Revival of the Shiv Sena: This could be the big make or break moment for the Shiv Sena and its chief Uddhav Thackeray. If the party can even retain its tally of 11, it will be a significant achievement and will pay rich dividends especially in the state polls scheduled in late 2014. However the split in its traditional vote banks, may cost it some seats.

(2) Will he or won't he? Will Raj Thackeray's MNS nominate candidates for the big polls or will it concentrate on the state elections is one big question that could change the dimensions in the state. If he does, he could cause serious damage to the 'Mahayuti' in several constituencies. Also, another interesting thing to see will be how Raj can take his party from Mumbai-Thane region to other parts of Maharashtra and what role will he play in the state politics in the near future.

(3) The NCP in transition: With Pawar ruling himself out of the Lok Sabha 2014, an era in the party's history has come to an end. It is but evident that the young Turks will have to take over. Will the transition be smooth? I don't think so. Pawar's daughter Supriya Sule and nephew Ajit Pawar are the front runners to take over. In a comprise, you can expect Supriya to lead the party in the Parliament with Praful Patel by her side whereas Ajit might command the state unit. At this juncture, one needs to watch the moves of senior leaders Chaggan Bhujbal and R R Patil closely.

(4) The fight for Mumbai: In 2009, the UPA won all seven seats in the Mumbai-Thane region. In many seats the NDA was relegated to the third spot after the split in the opposition votes. Can the NDA wrest the financial capital back from the Congress-led front. While this is likely, the MNS can dampen the prospects of the NDA.

(5) Statehood for Vidarbha: With the Congress and BJP colluding to give statehood to Telangana, such demands from other parts of the country are likely. The demands for a separate state carved out of eastern Maharashtra has been raised since long. Both the Congress and the BJP have reiterated their support for the cause. However, the Shiv Sena has opposed the division tooth and nail.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

WHY THE THIRD FRONT IS A FAILURE?

FIVE REASONS WHY THE FEDERAL FRONT WILL NOT BE A SUCCESS

With seven regional parties joining hands with the Left Front earlier this week, it seems like the much hyped 'Third Front', a term which gains momentum months prior to General Elections and then fizzles out, is on the cards. The eleven constituents who have around 90 MPs in the Lok Sabha have formed a united block and have planned to oppose any bill brought in by the government since it could electorally benefit the Congress. In the coming days, it is expected that the leaders of the Front which at present includes the Janata Dal (United), the Samajawadi Party, the Biju Janata Dal, the Janata Dal (Secular), the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), the All India Anna Daravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Asom Gana Parishad, apart from the four parties of the Left Block will hold talks to finalize the seat sharing arrangements. A non-BJP, non-Congress government at the Centre has been the ultimate dream of the federalists. However, the big question is whether it is a viable option. The increase in the vote share of the regional outfits and the emergence of strong state satraps has made them extremely important in national politics. Meanwhile, the anti-incumbency is hurting the Congress whereas the polarization of votes could affect the BJP's prospects after it named Narendra Modi as its PM nominee. As such, some believe that 2014 could see witness a Federal Front heading the regime in New Delhi. In fact, in a bid to prevent the NDA from coming to power, the UPA may offer such an alliance consisting of regional players outside support. However, I believe that the Third Front is bound to fail. Firstly, it will need at least 120 plus seats to be a force to reckon with and considering the present situation of its constituents, it seems to be an uphill task. In fact even if it gets 120 seats and forms a minority government with the outside support of the Congress, it is unlikely to last over two years. And here are the five reasons why I think so...

(1) Present Situation: As I have mentioned earlier, the Third Front has to get over 120 seats to even dream of forming the next government. However, in the present situation, it is expected that most of the regional parties who met this week are going to drop seats. Nitish Kumar, the most vocal leader of the new formation has to battle anti-incumbency, a resurgent BJP and the Congress-RJD-LJP alliance this time around. Having walked out of the NDA over the leadership issue, the JD(U) is likely to end with a tally of 10-15 seats only. In neighboring Uttar Pradesh, the Muslims who have been a prominent vote bank of the Samajwadi Party may desert it following the inability of the Akhilesh government to prevent the Muzaffarnagar riots. Meanwhile, the BJP and the BSP are likely to spoil the prospects of Mulayum Singh Yadav in the upcoming polls. The Left Front could be heading towards its worst showing in many years. Having stormed the Left bastion of Bengal in 2011, Mamata Bannerjee is all set to take the lion's share of seats in the eastern state. In Kerala too, the LDF is said to be extremely weak. Down south, the Gowdas have never been able to increase their clout outside the Mandya region of Karnataka. Besides the father son duo of Deve Gowda and Kumarswamy, they do not have any strong leaders who can win them seats. The AGP and the JVM (P) can at max, win 10 and 3 seats in Assam and Jharkhand respectively. On the contrary, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK and Naven Patnaik's BJD are expected to put on a good show. Considering the above arguments, I think the Third Front will finish with a combined tally of 80 - 110 seats, falling short of the 120 mark. On the other hand, if the NDA or the UPA manage to cross the 200 mark on their own, some parties in the confederation may not be averse to joining either of them. Amma is known to be close to Modi whereas Patnaik and AGP were a part of the BJP led alliance earlier. Similarly, the SP and the JD(S) have bailed out the INC many times in the past in the Parliament.

(2) The ideology: To get votes, the Third Front will have to project an ideology to the people. This is exactly what the coalition lacks as of now. The only reason for these parties who come from diverse backgrounds, who cater to different vote banks and who have varied 'founding principles' to come together has been to the aim of forming a non-BJP, non-Congress regime in New Delhi. In fact, this has been the stand of many regional players since decades. Earlier, with many of these fighting the INC in their back ground, anti-Congressism was the glue that kept them together. Over the years, with the 'Secularism' debate dominating the political scene, there has been a slight change here with anti-BJP sentiments taking over, especially after the nomination of Modi as NDA's Prime Ministerial candidate. However, the point to note here is whether the masses will vote for the regional players only to keep the mainstream national parties at bay? Also, the Federal alliance has never spoken about its 'united' vision for the country, the economic policies that it plans to implement once in power and its views on the nation's foreign affairs, social issue and key reforms are unclear. Besides, another challenge for them is whether the individual parties will ever rise above regional lines. One important thing is that each of the member of this alliance has a vote bank to protect. With every outfit trying to safeguard its own political interests will the Front be ever able to deliver on vital issues. My answer to this question is a No. Probably, the biggest problem will come while presenting the annual budget as every leader will want to get the maximum funds for his or her state.

(3) An incomplete front: Another head ache for the federal alliance is that in several key states, it has virtually no presence. Of course, in the coming days I expect several smaller parties like the People's Party of Punjab, either the National Conference or People's Democratic Party in Jammu & Kashmir and some other outfits in the North-East to join this confederation. Still, this does not solve the issue. In Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Himachal and Uttarkhand, the coalition has no leader who can win them seats. In Andhra, where there are as many as three regional parties, namely the YSR Congress, the Telugu Desum Party and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, none of these have indicated their willingness to join hands with federal front. Same is the situation in Maharashtra. Though the ties between the NCP and the Congress have been strained, they continue to share power. On the other hand, the BJP has already brought together several parties in its Mahayuti. Another issue facing the new front is that most of these regional players, except for Naveen Patnaik has a strong traditional regional rival and getting them on board is an impossible task. With Mulayum in the group, there is no way that Mayawati is going to give her support to the coalition; DMK and the AIADMK do not see eye to eye; Nitish will never allow bete noire Lalu Yadav to be a member of the alliance where Mamata's TMC can never work with the Left parties. With Didi and Behenji out of the equation, there is no way that the Third Front will get the numbers to form the next government.

(4) Leadership: Lets suppose that the Third Front is all set to form the government, either on its own or with outside support of the Congress. The question staring at the alliance will be who will head the government? All this while, the Third Front members have tried to evade this issue by claiming that the decision on who will be their PM choice will be taken after the polls. However, with nearly half a dozen leaders harboring ambitions for the top job, selecting one person will be extremely difficult. In a party meeting, the AIADMK cadre have proposed Jayalalithaa's name for the post. Knowing how things function in the Dravidian parties, it is for sure that this announcement too has the matriarch's blessings. It is a well known fact that Mulayum Singh Yadav too wants to become the Prime Minister. In fact, when he asked his son Akhilesh to become the CM of Uttar Pradesh after the SP dislodged the BSP from power, it was being speculated that he was planning to move to the national scene. Bihar CM Nitish Kumar too is seen as a probable PM candidate. While he had denied any such ambitions in the past, his repeated calls for the formation of the Third Front and his excessive campaigning in the last few months tell a different story. Nitish's party colleague Sharad Yadav is the dark horse. His experience as the convener of the NDA may come in handy while keeping the different allies happy. And how can one forget the humble farmer H D Deve Gowda. A former PM, he like Sharad Yadav too can be a please-all candidate. However, what goes against him is that the JD(S) may fail to win over 5 seats. Probably, the best amongst the pack, at least in my opinion is Orissa CM Naveen Patnaik. Having governed his state fairly well for three consecutive terms, he has the experience to handle the PM's post.

(5) Bitter experiences of the past: They say 'History repeats itself'. The four federal governments that were formed in the 1990s are testimony to the fact that such an experiment can never be sustainable and will only result in political instability. In 1989, Vishwananth Pratap Singh led the first such government at the Centre which barely lasted for an year. The reason for the fall of this regime was that Chandra Shekar led faction broke away, a clear indication that such formations never work. Chandra Shekar who succeeded Singh fared even badly, staying in power only for 223 days after the Congress withdrew its support, accusing him of spying on their leader Rajiv Gandhi. The third experiment of a regional alliance was in 1996 when Deve Gowda headed the United Front government. Prior to the government formation, there were several uneasy meetings to decide the new PM. It is widely believed that Lalu Yadav prevented Mulayum from being the PM to make sure that he does not emerge as the biggest Yadav leader in the country. Less than an year later, his regime fell and I K Gujral occupied the highest executive post in the country. There is one important event that took place while Gujral was at the helm of affairs which is worth reading. It is relevant because such situations may arise in case of a Third Front government comes to power in 2014. As PM, Gujral tried his best to shield Lalu Yadav as the CBI was investigating the multi-crore Fodder scam. You see the regional parties have a narrow minded approach. They fail to see what is good for the country as a whole, rather focusing on their states. Such an approach is not ideal for leading a nation as diverse as ours. Though I firmly believe that smaller outfits are one of the greatest features of our democracy, I think that giving the reins of the Central government to them is like allowing a 15 year old drive a car. While the teenager may do a decent job, there are high chances that he may crash his vehicle. At the same time I do not say that the two national parties or rather the coalitions that they are heading - the UPA and the NDA are the best choice. However if I have to choose amongst the three 'Devils', I will definitely chose them any day over the Third Front.

IN THE DOCK

THE PICTURE IS LOOKING GLOOMY FOR THE NCP

Courtesy: India Today

It seems that like the Congress party, its alliance partners in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government too are facing the heat ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. And the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is no exception. Formed in 1999 by the trio of Sharad Pawar, Tariq Anwar and P A Sangma after they were expelled from the INC for hitting out at Sonia Gandhi over the foreign origin issue, the outfit joined hands with the Congress in Maharashtra months after its inception; the alliance in the state has been strong ever since and the partners have been in power for 14 years in a row now. Similarly, it entered into an electoral agreement with the Congress, conveniently compromising on the principle of its formation for electorally benefits during the 2004 General polls and has been a constituent of the UPA ever since. Of course, there were speculations of Sharad Pawar dumping his former party and allying with the Third Front in 2009; this was furthered strengthened by some regional players suggesting his candidature for the post of the Prime Minister. However, with his outfit managing to win just nine seats and the INC surpassing the figure of 200 on its own, the Maratha leader's hopes of occupying 7 Race Course were dashed. Half a decade later, things have only got worse for Pawar. On the eve of the big elections in May 2014 and the state polls scheduled few months later, the NCP is looking in bad shape; many believe that Pawar's outfit has lost the battle even before it begins. Here is a list of four reasons as to why I would not place my money on the NCP to do well in the two elections.

Sharad Pawar to quit: Yes, finally the big man has announced his retirement from active politics. Speaking to media persons, senior NCP leader Praful Patel announced that the Union Agriculture Minister would not contest the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, paving way for the next generation of leaders to take the party forward. Having joined politics in the 1960s, Pawar has served as the Chief Minister on four different occasions besides being the Leader of Opposition in the state assembly when the BJP-Sena combine was in power. One of the most successful politician of his generation, he was given the all important Defence portfolio in the Narsimha Rao cabinet. However, the NCP supremo has been involved in controversies throughout his 'distinguished' career. Like the Lalus and the Mulayums, he is accused of being involved in several scams and shielding people with criminal background. An opportunist, he was never averse to joining, splitting or allying with parties just for political gains. Probably, his biggest failure of his career has been his inefficient way of administering Mumbai properly during the serial blasts in 1993 and the riots that followed. Even in his tenure as the Agriculture minister in UPA II, several serious charges were levied against him, including the Lavasa project where environmental norms where openly flouted. I am not sure whether that tight slap from Harvinder Singh played a part in his decision to quit. If yes, I would sincerely like to thank him for the great service that he has done to the nation. However, there is a small condition that Patel specified in the press release which is a bit of disappointment. Pawar is ready to continue his tryst with politics (and corruption) and is likely to be elected to the Rajya Sabha from Maharashtra this March. While he will still be a part of the political stage in 2014 and is expected to campaign heavily for the party, his retirement is surely impact the fortunes of the NCP, especially in western Maharashtra, which has been its traditional stronghold.

Anti-incumbency: The NCP has a record which very few regional parties can boast of in our Rajneeti - it has stayed in power for over 14 years in Maharashtra. Winning three elections in a row, so what if it was in alliance with the INC is something to be proud of. However, with great powers come greater responsibilities. While the two partners have given decent governments to the state over the years, the many scandals that have come to light, especially the Irrigation scam that led to the resignation of NCP leader and Sharad Pawar's nephew Ajit Pawar is set to have a negative impact on the outfit's performance. Though it has played second fiddle to the INC throughout the three terms, the anti-incumbency sentiment which is looming large in the state is expected to adversely affect its numbers. In fact, there is a bigger problem for the party to tackle. The Pawar-led party has also been a part of the UPA since 2004. The failure of the Manmohan Singh regime, especially in its second innings is likely to hurt all its constituents. NCP supremo Sharad Pawar has been the Union Agriculture minister for nearly a decade now. The high inflation rates and the sorry plight of farmers in most parts of the country, mainly in his home turf of Maharashtra is giving the party nightmares. On the other hand, the Shiv Sena which has been the NCP's rival in the state has improved its strength, looking much better than it was about two years ago. Also, the projection of Gujarat CM Narendra Modi is likely to benefit the saffron partners in Maharashtra. While there is nothing to suggest that there is a pro-NDA wave in the region, it is but natural for it to gain from the failures of the UPA regime. In related development, Mayank Gandhi has said that AAP will put up candidates on all seats that the NCP will contest.  

Souring relations: The relations between the Congress and the NCP have been far from smooth over the years. I am not sure whether the Congress President has forgotten Pawar's rebellion over her appointment to the post. Although reports of friction amongst the two parties, both in state and the Centre have emerged at regular intervals, the war of words has only escalated in recent times. In December last year, the Agriculture minister had said that country needed strong leaders like Indira Gandhi in what has been viewed as a dig at the serving PM. Reacting to Manmohan Singh's scathing attack on Narendra Modi's candidature for the post of the Prime Minister, Pawar advised the PM to use his words carefully. Now it seems that the discussions over seat sharing arrangement in Maharashtra is further souring the relations between the two allies. In 2009 polls, the Congress contested on 26 seats winning 17 of them whereas the NCP finished first only on 8 of the 22 which it fought on. It is believed that the INC leadership, including CM Prithviraj Chavan are keen to contest more seats this time. Considering the precarious situation that the NCP finds itself in, the party high command believes that it stands a better chance to fight the BJP-Sena partnership compared to its partner. I wonder what makes the grand old party think this way? At a press conference, Chavan suggested a new formula for the 2014 General elections - 29:19. On the other hand, the Maratha leader is in no mood to compromise on this. It will be interesting to see how this concludes in the days to come. Meanwhile, Pawar has made it clear that his party will fight the Lok Sabha in places outside Maharashtra without any consensus with the Congress.

The battle of succession: There is no doubt that Sharad Pawar is a mass leader. Irrespective of how many parties he has changed, his core vote bank has always stood by him. The NCP today is more or less synonymous with him. He is the party's main vote catcher and it is largely due to his presence that it has managed to survive in his home state while sinking into oblivion in other parts. Though the Maratha strongman is expected to be at the helm of affairs for much of 2014, it should not be surprising if there erupts a war of succession amongst the second rung leaders to led the party in the post Sharad Pawar era. The strongest contender is Ajit Pawar, the nephew of the Union Agriculture minister. In fact, it was he who vacated his Parliamentary seat of Baramati for his uncle in 1991. He has served as a cabinet minister in the state government for a long time. Like the NCP supremo, he is a mass leader and he too has been engulfed in numerous controversies throughout his career. Short tempered and unambiguous, he was in the news for the wrong reasons last year; responding to a query on the drought crisis in the state, he sarcastically asked whether he should urinate to get waters in the dam. It looks like he lacks the political acumen of his uncle. Supriya Sule, the daughter of Sharad Pawar may also stake a claim at the top shot. Apart from some social work, her only qualification is that she is the daughter of senior Pawar. In 2010, there were some allegations that she and her dad owned some stake in the IPL Pune franchise. State Home minister R R Patil who heads the NCP in the legislative assembly and the party's lower caste face Chhagan Bhujbal are also nursing ambitions to head the outfit. Former Union minister Praful Patel is the dark horse and he may emerge as the consensus candidate to keep the various warring factions together.

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: India Today
Original: Difficult to implement Food Bill without adequate funds, says Sharad Pawar (Link)

THE NORTH-EASTERN CONFEDERACY

THE NEW ALLIANCE ON THE BLOCK

Source: Wikipedia

Just ahead of the 2014 General Elections, a group of parties from the North-east have come together to form the North East Regional Political Front (NERPF) with the novel aim of 'safeguarding the interest of the people of the region'. Earlier this week, representatives from 11 regional outfits came together in Guwahati to announce this new alliance which is expected to be a significant player in the run up to the big polls. While former CM of Assam and AGP chief Prafulla Kumar Mahanta was appointed as the chief adviser of this new front, other advisers include Paban Kumar Chamling - the Chief Minister of Sikkim, former CMs Donkupar Roy of Meghalaya and Joram Thanga of Mizoram. Serving Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio of the NPP who won a second consecutive term earlier this year beating the Congress was named as the chief convener of the NERPF. The leaders of  the new coalition which includes the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the Naga People's Front (NPF), the United Democratic Party (UDP), the Hill State People's Democratic Party (HSPDP), the Manipur People's Party (MPP), the Manipur State Congress Party (MSCP), the Manipur People's Democratic Front (MPDP), the Mizo National Party (MNP), the People's Party of Arunachal (PPA) , the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) and the Indigenous People's Front of Twipra (IPFT) has left its doors open for other regional players to join them. In fact, this news has created a flutter in political circles. Former Punjab CM Surjit Singh Barnawala of the Akali Dal was present on the occasion to express his support and even TDP chief Chandra Babu Naidu is said to be in touch with its leaders.

The NERPF seems to be making the right kind of noise at least for the time being. Belonging to a part of the country that has largely been ignored by the political establishment in New Delhi, the front has taken the cause of the North east, promising to work for the region that has never got its due, either politically or economically. It has been critical of China's claims over the state Arunachal, asking for measures against Chinese incursion into Indian territory. Battered by years of neglect and insurgency, the region lags behind the rest of the country in terms of development. The NERPF has called for Beijing to stop work on all dams in the upper stages of the Brahmaputra which is the lifeline of the region, with immediate effect. On similar lines, it has taken a strong stand against Bangladesh, asking the government not to go ahead with the proposed the enclave swapping deal with our eastern neighbor. Besides, it has called for the deportation of illegal migrants who have crossed over to our side. The alliance has asked the Centre to withdraw the Arms Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) - an emotive issue, especially in the troubled state of Manipur, from all of the North-east. Like all regional players, it has promised to provide reservation in Central government jobs for the people of the region, the rebuilding of the Slitwell Road and implementation of the Look East policy which seems to have lost its steam over the years. Lastly, the NERPF has asked for the scrapping of the Concurrent list and transferring all the subjects in it to the State List - the eternal dream of all federalists. 

While the leaders may claim to be working in the interests of the region, there is more to it than than just that. In spite of all the hype over the Third Front, the reality on the ground is that regional parties in the smaller states, except for the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab, the SDF in Sikkim and the NPF in Nagaland are in the decline. In the North-east, these outfits are losing ground to the Congress which has made the region one of its strong holds across the nation. The party under the leadership of Tarun Gogoi won a third straight term in 2011 assembly elections, winning 79 of the 126 seats as the AGP was reduced to single digit. In alliance with the BJP, the party won a single seat in the 2009 Lok Sabha. Earlier this year, the HSPDP and the UDP could only win 12 seats in total in Meghalaya as the IPFT drew a blank in Tripura where the Red fever was on a high. The MNP has just 5 MLAs in the Mizoram legislature, as opposed to the ruling INC which won 32 seats on its own; the PPA has only 4 seats in Arunachal and the MSCP has 5 MLAs in Manipur. Considering the dismal state that majority of the constituents find themselves in, the move will send across the right message to the electorate while helping to consolidate the anti-Congress votes. In a place like north-eastern India where the political space is fragmented amongst smaller parties, all catering to a section of the society, the united front will give a big boost to the regional players who are keen to win back their lost space. However, other than the Congress, the North-East Front will have to fight out with a lot of other regional outfits who may end up defeating the purpose of this move.

Probably, the biggest challenge that this group posses is to the Congress. Presently the party is ruling in six of the eight states and in each of these legislatures, it has above sixty percent of the seats. In the 2009 polls, the party, on its own won 13 out of the 25 Lok Sabha seats from th North-east. Even its ally in the UPA - the Nationalist Congress Party has a substantial support base here. However, with the formation of the front, the anti-Congress vote will not get split, at least to a big extent, like it used to in the past. In an election wherein the INC is facing issues like anti-incumbency, corruption and inflation, the NERPF is emerging as its main nemesis in the region. With pundits predicting that the Congress may struggle in 2014, losing even a few seats to the opposition will cost the UPA, especially in case of a hung assembly. The NDA and the BJP on the other hand seem to be quite happy with this development. In fact, the presence of the former Punjab CM on the eve of the announcement of this grand alliance is seen as NDA's support to it. BJP's only ally from here is the former Speaker of the Lower House - P A Sangma, whose candidature was supported by the Opposition camp for Presidency. However, his party's disastrous debut in the 2013 Meghalaya elections has proved that he has lost all his influence even in his native Garo Hills. As such, the NDA has no other option but to cos up to the NERPF before the polls. In coming days, it is expected that the Left parties may try to woo this coalition also. Meanwhile, keeping their cards close to their chest, the group has said that it will maintain 'equi-closeness' to both the UPA and the NDA ahead of the big polls.

With the General Elections just about eight months away, there is a lot that the NERPF and its constituents have to do to put on a formidable show. Firstly, many of the parties here have to build their organization at the grass root level and rejuvenate the cadre. Secondly, the Front should work towards getting other important players in the region like the All India United Democratic Front and the Bodoland People's Front into its fold so as to garner more support and votes. Also, seat sharing is expected to get murkier in the coming days and a few parties may even walk out. In an area like the North-east with complex issues, where solving one issue can lead to protests from several other groups, keeping the folk together, both before and after the polls may even become a nightmare. The big question will be how many seats the NERPF win in 2014. At present, it highly unlikely that the alliance will win more than 7 seats. However, to make sure that it has political influence in the process of formation of the next government in New Delhi, it has to win at least 10 to 15 seats in the next Parliament. In the situation where both the UPA and NDA fall short of the magic figure, this group will be one of the most sought after in the post-poll scenario. Whatever be the fate of this confederacy, I hope that the next Union government gives India's North-east the attention that it truly deserves and helps it to march on the path of progress, healing the scars of decades of insurgency and maladministration.

THE FALL OF THE TRIUMVIRATE

CAN MANMOHAN SINGH SURVIVE THE RAGA ASSAULT?

Source: NDTV

In May 2004, as the UPA romped home to a surprise victory by decimating the NDA, Sonia Gandhi - the real architect of this spectacular win refused to accept the PM's post, citing her 'inner voice'. Inspite of repeated attempts to convince her by party colleagues and alliance partners, she refused to budge and hand picked an old time loyalist - Rajya Sabha MP & former Finance Minister Manmohan Singh for the top job. One of the country's best economist, Singh had presented the 1991 budget which opened our economy to foreign brands which is one of the reasons that we are the second fastest growing economy in the world today. Sonia's position was given legitimacy by appointing her as the chief of the National Advisory Council - an institute constituted by the UPA to advise the cabinet on issues concerning the Aam Aadmi. In 2006 the heir apparent Rahul Gandhi was brought into the spot light; back then, he spoke about bringing democracy in a dynasty-based party and reviving its fortunes in states like UP and Bihar. Though the Opposition accused Sonia of remote controlling the government and preparing the ground for Baba to take over, the arrangement worked well for the Congress as it managed to complete its full term despite of regular 'black-mailing' by the Left parties. Like the successful yet controversial Triumvirate of the Roman Republic - an alliance between the great general Pompey, the super rich Cranius and the master politician Julius Caesar to tide over the crisis facing them about two millennia ago, the trioka of Sonia, Singh and Rahul led the UPA to a second consecutive win, even bettering their previous record by a good margin in the 2009 Lok Sabha.

In the period between 2004 to 2010, this was the most dominant force in Indian politics. After publicly renouncing the PM's chair and taking the moral high ground on various issues, Sonia Gandhi's stature grew exponentially, making her, arguably the most popular neta in our country. Manmohan's strong stand on the Indo-US nuclear deal and his 'Mr. Clean' image won his the admiration of the masses, making him the first PM after Nehru to win successive terms. The young and energetic Rahul Baba brought about new ideas; he promised to revamp the party structure and introduce certain measures to revitalize it. His entry into active politics was heralded by Congressmen as a new era in our Rajneeti. Sadly for the three, things started going downhill after the UPA in its second innings was rocked by a series of corruption scandals, some of which like the 2G and Coalgate scams completely tarnished the PM's image. Considering that Mrs. Gandhi still is her party's biggest vote catcher, her health concerns is another big blow. Though she has regularly defended the government in the Lower House, it seems that her health will not permit her to devote much time for political campaigning in the coming years. And Rahul Gandhi has, to a large extent, become a big liability for the Congress. On numerous occasions like the recently concluded Uttar Pradesh elections where he tore the Samajwadi manifesto while addressing an election rally, his words and antics have become a 'hot potato' for the Congress and its supporters. Faced with a formidable challenge posed by a resurgent BJP led by the Gujarat CM Narendra Modi, the top brass of the UPA is feeling the heat. While reports suggesting differences between the Gandhis and Singh have been doing the rounds for some time, the latter tried to prove otherwise by claiming that he would be happy to work under Rahul. However, the junior Gandhi's scathing attack on the Manmohan cabinet for taking the ordinance route to over rule a SC judgement regarding the disqualification of convicted politicians has, perhaps signaled the end of this partnership.

For PM Singh, this brazen attack, especially the strong language used by Rahul in the press conference, could not have come at a worst time. Facing a credibility crisis, the UPA II is surviving on the blessings of the Samajwadi supremo Mulayum Singh Yadav. While Manmohan has been open of his wholehearted support to the candidature of the heir apparent in case a third Congress led regime comes to power, the harsh criticism from the party VP, at a time when he was on an official tour of the US, has for sure, deeply hurt him. As if the crown prince's wrath was not enough, the manner in which both, his party men and cabinet colleagues came out in open support of Baba has completed isolated him. While the party was consulted prior to issuing the ordinance, the perception that has come out now is that it was the PM who wanted to suppress the SC judgement. With the public opinion being strongly in favour of the ruling, his popularity will take a severe beating in the coming days. Though he tried to play down the incident, hailing it as just another part of our democracy where differences of opinion is normal, it is a death blow to the political career of the third longest surviving PM in our history. Instead of helping him and his government put up a formidable fight against Modi, Rahul's washing of dirty linen in public will only give more ammunition to the Opposition camp. The government is in a catch 22 situation now. Not withdrawing the ordinance will be seen as defying the Gandhis, whose every word is nothing less than holy gospel in the INC. On the other hand, considering that many of the existing and prospective allies want him to save their convicted leaders from disqualification, scrapping of the ordinance is easier said than done. While Manmohan Singh has been clear that this will be his last term in the office, this fiasco has only confirmed his retirement sooner than expected.

Many believe that this episode might be an attempt by the junior Gandhi and his party to steal the thunder out of BJP's 'relentless' campaign against the ordinance. Though, the saffron outfit is said to have been with the government during the all party meeting to discuss the future course of action following the SC's verdict, the principal opposition took an aggressive stand, probably after seeing that the mood on the streets was against the ordinance. Apart from lashing out at the government, a delegation of BJP leaders went to meet the President, asking him to reject the ordinance when it would be sent to him for his consent. Forget the BJP, it would not be surprising for a strong President like Pranad Mukherjee to reject the ordinance. This would certainly be an embarrassment for the ruling regime. Meanwhile, at first, the Congress tried to vociferously defend the decision, accusing the Opposition of going back on its word for political gains. Realizing that mood in the country was heavily inclined towards the historic verdict, it seems that Rahul's public outburst was to take all attention away from the BJP's anti-ordinance stance. However, the main question is - What was the so-called 'PM-in-waiting' doing so long? Was he not consulted when the Congress was deliberating on the issue or is the Rahul vs Manmohan war just a drama by their party to do damage control and enhance the former's stature? You never know...

The public outburst might just be another of Baba's innumerable attempts to re-invent himself in national politics and strike a chord with the masses. In 2009, while talking about the plight of farmers in the country, the young Gandhi scion had spoken about Kalavati - a widow from the drought prone Vidarbha region of Maharashtra who came to symbolize the sorry plight of our agarian community. While the INC has been in power for all this long in New Delhi and in Mumbai, Kalavati's condition has only worsened; one of her daughter and a son-in-law have also committed suicide due to the unending cycle of poverty. In the following year, he was given the charge of the party in Bihar, a state wherein his party had been reduced to single digits in the last election. Unfortunately, the Congress was routed again; losing nearly 50% of the seats to end on a final tally of four. In 2012, Rahul took up the cause of people protesting against the then Mayawati government's forceful acquisition of land in the Bhatta Parsaul village in UP. On a visit there, following reports of violence, he accused the administration of killing innocent villagers, burning their bodies and raping their women. However, these claims were never proven, leaving the leader and his party men red-faced. The disaster in the UP polls, especially at a time when another young leader - Akilesh Yadav managed to take the Samajwadi Party well above the half way mark was, yet another chapter in the long list of RaGa's debacles. The problem with Gandhi seems to be that he still hasn't made up his mind on what his role will be in the coming months. He is still reluctant to take that plunge into 'active' politics, he rarely speaks to the media and his views on several issues are unclear. Besides, he lacks the vision of Nehru, the leadership qualities of Indira and the decision-making ability of his uncle Sanjay. Rahul Gandhi has to realize that he has to do a lot more than simply criticizing the government if he has to tackle the NaMo bandwagon. Taking a cue from his mother, he has to find ways of connecting with the people - a trait that the premiere dynasty of our politics has always been known for, so as to help the Congress do well in 2014.

For more on the 2014 General Elections
(1) The Double Edged Sword (Link)
(2) Reading Between the Lines (Link)
(3) An Ally in Need is an Ally Indeed (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Original: Rahul Gandhi leads Congress' charge at mega rally; backs Government on reforms
Source: NDTV (Link)