CONGRESS' NEW FACE IN GUJARAT

HARDIK PATEL TO LEAD THE PARTY IN MODI-SHAH BACKYARD

Hardik Patel - Courtesy: Face Book

While the suspense over Sachin Pilot's political future continues to hang in the balance, there seems to be some positive news coming out of the Congress camp in Gujarat. In Ahmedabad, the grand old party has decided to hand over the reins to the young Patidar leader - Hardik Patel. For a party bereft of a loyal voter base or a solid leadership in the state, the move is certainly a step in the right direction. With the Congress being out of power in the the land of Modi and Shah since 1998, the appointment of 27 year old Hardik as the Working President of the Gujarat Congress, perhaps the youngest state president for any major political party in India, can prove to be a game changer in the fight for 2022.

For decades, the INC seemed happy playing second fiddle to the BJP in the western state; however, in the 2017 state elections, infused by the energy brought in by the likes of Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mewani, the Congress fought tooth and nail, restricting the saffron camp to 99, its worst tally in decades. Almost immediately though, the party lost its momentum, slipping back to its typical laissez-faire attitude and ended up conceding all 26 Lok Sabha seats to the BJP in Gujarat in the last General Elections. What's worst, months later, several party MLAs walked over to the saffron camp, amongst them was one of the poster boys of 2017, Alpesh Thakor, clearly indicating the rot within the state Congress. While a great opportunity for revival may have been lost in the winter of 2017, it is better late than never; Patel's elevation brings in hopes for a major upheaval in the Gujarat chapter of the INC. Hardik certainly has the potential to be the torch bearer of Congress' fortunes in the western state. With the polls two years away, the young Patidar leader has his task cut out.

Face of Gujarat Congress: Post the heydays of Madhav Singh Solanki and Chimanbhai Patel, the INC in Gujarat has never had a political leader whose popularity spanned across the different regions and communities. In fact, for long, the party in the state was led by Shankarsinh Vaghela, a saffron import. Sonia Gandhi's political secretary Ahmad Patel who hails from the state is more of a organizational man than a mass leader. In the 13 years he served as the Gujarat's CM, Congress leaders like Shaktisinh Gohil, Arjun Modhwadia and Siddharth Patel were no match to Narendra Modi. However, incumbent CM Vijay Rupani lacks the charisma of the current PM. The time is perfect for a young and dynamic leader like Hardik to fill in the vacuum and begin his ascent on the state's political landscape.

The PAAS leader needs to employ a two pronged strategy in his quest to emerge as the new mass leader of the Congress. Firstly, he has to consolidate his position as the biggest Patel leader in the state. However, he has to realize that merely cultivating the state's largest community won't be enough; he has to woo other communities too. Congress stalwart Madhav Singh Solanki built up the KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim) combination and led the INC to a famous victory in the 80s winning 150 seats. Muslims have for long backed the INC but the young leader from Mehsana has to be careful that he does not play into the hands of the BJP in its attempts to communalize the 2022 polls. If Hardik can successfully transform himself from being the leader of the Patels to one who can build and lead a combination of communities against the saffron camp in the next two years, he will definitely be the top contender for the post of CM in case of a Congress win.

Rebuilding the party: After five consecutive loses to the BJP in Gujarat, it is quite natural that the morale of the party workers continues to be at an all time low. In spite of an impressive showing in the 2017 polls, the party has failed to capitalize on the advantages that it gained back then, largely because the party organization is in shambles. Infighting, like in any other state unit is still rampant, with favoritism always scoring over merit and talent. As such, the INC has somehow failed to convert the massive anti-incumbency against the BJP, into its favor. Another problem that has been plaguing the party in Ahmedabad for long is the desertion of its MLAs, especially before the Rajya Sabha polls.

Its now up to Hardik to convert the moribund Congress unit in Gujarat into a well-oiled machine that can take on the saffron outfit. Perhaps, the first step is to do away with old timers who have been warming their posts for years without delivering any tangible benefits for the INC. New leaders need to be identified and groomed before the 2022 polls. Next, Patel needs to galvanize the party cadres, the ordinary Congress worker on the street in the fight against the BJP. The karyakartas need to be enthused so that they can take the party's message to the masses. He needs to make alliances with sub-regional outfits and social organizations dissatisfied with the BJP and take them on board. Ticket distribution needs to be based on a candidate's potential to win and not on him/her being in good books of some top state party leader.

Channelizing the anti-incumbency against the BJP: A large section of the Gujarati electorate has been unhappy with the BJP, especially over demonetization and the hasty implementation of the GST. This was largely evident from the way the party's tally fell below the 3 figure mark in 2017, for the first time since 1993. The woes of the ruling outfit was only attenuated by the absence of a strong leader like Modi whereas the agitation of the Patidars, long considered to be loyalists of the saffron camp, only made the matters worse. That the BJP somehow managed to hang on to power, shows the dismal state of affairs in the INC camp. After ushering in key reforms to rebuild the Congress in the state, Patel needs to work on milking this anti-incumbency against the saffronists. He must shun the comforts of the air conditioned office in Ahmedabad and hit the trail right away. He needs to tour the state, attend rallies and building up the support base for the Congress. The failure of the incumbent regime, especially its below average handling of the Covid pandemic in the state needs to be highlighted. The party's campaigns needs to be innovative and centered around the youth, women and the poor so that dissatisfaction against the Rupani government can be channelized to give INC the advantage.

Hardik Patel's first test will be leading the party in the by polls for the eight assembly seats that fell vacant after the elected Congress MLAs resigned to join the BJP. Every seat that the INC wins in the by polls will enhance his reputation many folds.

While Hardik gets down to lead the Congress in 2022, the message to the Congress High Command would be to have a bit of patience. Expecting the young leader to do wonders in months would prove to a blunder. Hardik needs to be given a free hand, part from funds to take on the BJP. It is generally the Congress' culture to prevent the growth of strong state leaders. From Devaraj Urs to Sharad Pawar in the yester years to the likes of Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot now, the Gandhis have always been known to cut powerful state satraps to size. However, such an approach will not work anymore considering that the stocks of the Gandhi family are at an all time low. Leaders like Patel, Amarinder Singh and D K Shivakumar need to be empowered. It is only through them that the INC can be revived, first in the states and then at the Center.

LUCKNOW CALLING

PRIYANKA v/s YOGI in 2022

Priyanka Gandhi - Courtesy: Face Book

Early in the month of July, the Housing Ministry of the Central Government served an order to Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi, cancelling the allotment of the Lodhi Estate house in Delhi, which she has been occupying for last 23 years. As expected, the BJP justified the decision, pointing out that the Gandhis, considered to be the first family of Indian politics, no longer enjoy the Special Protection Guard (SPG) protection after the Act was amended in Dec 2019 to cover only the family members of the incumbent and former PMs. The Congress went out all guns blazing; accusing the Modi government of vendetta politics and calling the move a sustained effort on the part of the Modi-Shah duo to target its top brass personally.

On her part, it seems as though Priyanka was anyway planning to shift out of Delhi with reports suggesting that she was due to move to Lucknow so that she could take her job as the party general secretary in charge of UP more seriously. The outbreak of the Corona pandemic seems to have postponed her plan, till the BJP decided to show the more hardcore elements of its core electorate that it would not go soft on the Gandhis. On the part of the INC, they have decided to milk the situation, accusing the government of witch hunt against the younger Gandhi who has been quite vocal in her criticism of the Yogi regime in Uttar Pradesh, and in the process, earn some sympathy for its High Command which has seen its stocks plummet to a low time low.

Ever since the drubbing it got in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the grand old party, has largely been on the back foot at the center, the imbroglio surrounding Rahul Gandhi’s re-appointment as the President, only making the matters worse. Under these circumstances when the party has not been able to corner the government in spite of its mishandling of the Covid situation in the country and recent clashes at the China border, Priyanka’s decision to shift base to Lucknow and help build the party in India’s most important state is certainly a step in the right direction, for the following reasons:

(1) The Gandhis are serious about UP, finally: Though Uttar Pradesh has been the home turf of the Gandhis, they seem to have some how lost touch with the state, post the Indira Gandhi era. The party has become irrelevant outside the pocket boroughs of Rae Bareli and Amethi, ceding ground, first to the BJP during the Babri Masjid demolition movement and then to the two main regional players – the Mulayum Singh & Akhilesh Yadav led Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Mayawati lead Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP); in fact, in the last national polls, BJP leader Smriti Irani even managed to wrest Amethi from the then Congress President Rahul Gandhi.

With Priyanka being one of the main weapon’s in the Congress’ arsenal for the time being, her impending move to Lucknow is a clear indication that the party means business in UP and will put its entire might to put up a good show in the 2022 state polls.

(2) A complete overhaul of the UP Congress: With the party being out of power in Lucknow since 1989, in many parts of the big state, the Congress cadre is non-existent and most of its one-time big wigs have moved on to rival camps. As seen in the 2017 state elections where it happily agreed to play a junior partner to the SP, it seemed until now that the Congress had given up all hopes, resigning to the fact that it was not a serious contender for UP anymore.

With a Gandhi scion taking hold of the reins of the party in UP, it is expected that Priyanka would usher in a series of much delayed and much needed reforms to stop the rot in the UPCC (Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee) and help rebuild the party organization, from the scratch, quite literally. Moreover, for quite some time now, she had been taking on the Yogi government on its alleged failures to provide good governance to the people. Shifting base to UP, not only gives more vigor to her barbs against the state government but is also expected to enthuse the ordinary Congress karya karta right in time for the state polls, scheduled to be held in 20 months.

In fact, she can take some inspiration from bitter rival Amit Shah who as the head of BJP state unit helped the party and its allies win a staggering 73 out of the 80 seats in the 2014 polls that saw Modi sweep to power while the Congress was reduced to its worst ever tally of 44 seats at the national level. Prior to his arrival in UP, BJP's position in the state was just a little better than what the Congress finds itself in as of now; Shah rebuilt the party, taking lots of tough decisions that ultimately paid off. Congress sympathizers are definitely hoping for such a show from Priyanka.

(3) The Division of Power: Ever since Rahul entered electoral politics, there have been accusations of there being multiple power centers within the Congress that severely curtails its ability to take quick decisions vis-a-vis the BJP where Modi’s diktat reigns supreme. It is known that the Congress is split into two camps, the old timers swearing loyalty to Sonia and the young Turks pledging allegiance to Rahul. Of late, with Priyanka taking a more active interest in politics, many feared that a new third camp may emerge, especially with Rahul finding hard to win elections for the party.

Priyanka’s move to Lucknow and Rahul taking back reins from Sonia will certainly be a step that could clear a lot of the mess regarding decision making in the Congress. Rahul would be free to take decisions at the Centre and concentrate on cornering the Modi government while Priyanka, as his trusted lieutenant can help revive the party fortunes in UP.

Priyanka’s choice of residence in UP’s capital city is laced with all sorts of symbolism; she has decided to move into the vacant house owned by Late Sheila Kaul, the sister-in-law of Jawahar Nehru. What makes the house more special is that it was here that Gandhiji and Nehru had planted a tree together way back in the 1930s. Don’t be surprised if you see Priyanka’s social media feed flooded with images of this tree in the run up to the 2022 state polls in a bid to invoke the Nehru-Gandhi legacy of the Congress.

Overall, Priyanka’s move to Lucknow certainly seems to be a step in the right direction. If she can put her political acumen and charisma to good use, she can put the party on a firm footing in UP, while keeping the Yogi government on tenterhooks. If she can get back the traditional Congress vote banks of Brahmins, Muslims and Dalits that they have lost to BJP, SP and the BSP respectively, then the party can hopefully see a revival of fortunes in the big state. In fact, the Congress should take the gamble, announce Priyanka Gandhi as its CM nominee, thereby raising the stakes. The move may or may not pay off, but then, as they say, ‘Fortune favors the Brave’. It could just be the move that could spark off a Congress revival on India's political landscape.

2016: THE STAKES ARE HIGH

The year 2015 has been one to forget for the saffron outfit; after being routed in the Delhi state polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was further embarrassed in Bihar later in the year when the NDA was convincing beaten by the grand opposition led by bitter rival Nitish Kumar. Rising prices, the 'intolerance' debate and failure of the government to bring in the much anticipated reforms has meant that the aura of invincibility surrounding the BJP and the Prime Minister has been busted; the much hyped Modi wave seems to have vanished and Amit Shah's political acumen seems to have deserted him completely.

Probably, the only saving grace for the party is that the popularity of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to remain high. However, as the Delhi and Bihar polls have shown, it cannot solely depend on the PM to win them the elections in the states. Amongst the five states that are scheduled to go to the polls in 2016, Assam is one where the BJP will fancy its chances in the wake of rising anti-incumbency against the Tarun Gogoi government. It remains to be seen what strategy the party applies in Tamil Nadu and neighboring Pondicherry. Will it revive the NDA in Tamil region and fight the polls with Vijaykant's MDMK or abandon its front and ally with the Jayalalithaa? Moreover, it remains to be seen if the BJP can finally break its jinx and make its debut in Kerala. Also, the party will hope to improve its share in Bengal.

For the Congress, this year has been a mixed bag. The year started on a bad note with the grand old party being wiped out from the capital. However, the victory of the grand alliance of which the INC was a part of in Bihar did bring in a lot of cheers. More importantly, a big hurray for the party is that its Vice President Rahul Gandhi seems to be taking charge of the affairs of late. The party's strategy to stall Parliament has worked till now but then it must make sure that it does not over do it.

Looking forward to 2016, the Congress is still to regain its lost political pride which can only be restored by a famous win in the electoral arena. Probably, from the INC's perspective, the only state where it has a chance to register a big electoral win is Kerala where it is in power. Considering the present political conditions, it is unlikely that the party can win a fourth straight win in Assam in the wake of rebellion within its ranks. Allying with the DMK is the only option to do well in Tamil Nadu whereas Bengal will be a lost cause, unless the INC makes up with the TMC.

Compared to the two national parties, perhaps the upcoming year is the most important for the Left Front as two of the three states where it has a significant presence go to the polls. And to be frank, the situation does not seem to be particularly good. In its former bastion of Bengal, the TMC is all set to retain its hold in Kolkata thanks to the inability of the Communists to put up a spirited fight. The fight in Kerala seems to be a really tight one with the Congress going all out to keep the Left Front at bay.

Finally, the stakes are high for the regional players too. Jayalalithaa who was believed to be comfortably placed to win a consecutive term is now facing the heat, especially after the deluge in Chennai and Cuddalore. The only saving grace for her is that the DMK is ridden with internal strife and the taint surrounding the alleged involvement of some of its top leaders in the 2G scam is yet to go. In the east, Mamta Bannerjee though is in a much better position, thanks to an inefficient opposition and her goons.

WILL CHANKYA'S NEETI WORK?

NITISH LED 'SECULAR' FRONT TO TAKE ON THE MODI BRIGADE

The JD-U supremo Nitish Kumar who is dubbed by several political analysts as the modern day 'Chanakya' of the Indian political spectrum, pulled off another major political coup earlier this week when his name was declared as the official chief ministerial nominee of the newly formed and 'loosely knit' Janata Parivaar (JP) for the upcoming Bihar polls. With the war of words between the leaders of the state's top two regional parties - the JD-U and the RJD escalating over the past two months, the announcement made by the Janata Parivaar's de-facto chief Mulayum Singh Yadav ended weeks of speculations of a possible break down in the anti-BJP plank even before the elections. In what seemed to be a well choreographed affair, the name of Nitish as the face of the alliance was proposed by none other than his friend turned foe turned friend - Lalu Yadav.

Check Mating Lalu: Like Kautaliya who crafted the downfall of the much powerful Nanda Empire by training his protégé Chandragupta Maurya in the fourth century BC, the incumbent CM too played his cards well in the race to be the 'face' of the grand alliance. Having deposed his self-appointed successor Jitam Ram Manjhi from the helm of affairs after the latter refused to be a mere puppet, Nitish knew very well that the move could hurt him electorally with a section of the influential Maha-Dalit community refusing to back him for having mistreated their leader. Moreover, the lessons of the September 2014 by-polls were not lost on him; for halting the Modi juggernaut it was essential to keep the mega coalition together. At the same time though, to salvage lost pride and to maintain political relevance, it was equally important for him to lead it. With Lalu in the equation and the bitter animosity between the two leaders since the mid 90s being a stuff of legends, this was not going to be easy. Though the RJD chief has been barred from contesting elections after being convicted in the Fodder Scam, he was, or rather he still is, not very keen to fight the polls under the leadership of his one time rival. The Yadav strong man is a master in the art of dirty politics and side lining him was going to be a herculean task within itself.

This is exactly where Nitish displayed his political acumen; fully aware that the Congress, in spite of its moribund state of affairs in Bihar would still play a decisive role in deciding the CM candidate of the coalition, the JD-U chief had a special audience with Rahul Gandhi on a visit to Delhi. It is believed that the Congress Vice President, unlike his mother does not have a good opinion of the RJD chief. On the other hand, he has been vocal about his admiration of Nitish. One can recollect several instances wherein the junior Gandhi had praised the Bihar CM for his secular credentials even while he was an integral part of the NDA. In fact, this move was a master stroke; soon after the meeting, reports from the Congress camp suggested that INC would align with the JD-U irrespective of whether Lalu was with it or not. With the Gandhis turning their back on Lalu, the path was more or less clear for Kumar to head the anti-BJP plank. Moreover, Nitish's image as the man who transformed Bihar from Lalu's 'Jungle Raj' to one of the fastest growing states in India only further strengthened his prospects for the top post. As such, as the leaders of the Janata Parivaar met to discuss the course of action for the polls, the odds were comprehensively stacked in the favor of Nitish, forcing the wily Lalu to eat the humble pie.

The Nitish v/s Modi saga continues: With Kumar leading the mega coalition, the second part of the Modi - Nitish rivalry is all set to be played in the state of Bihar this winter. After walking out of the NDA over the candidature of the then Gujarat CM as the NDA candidate for the post of the Prime Minister, the Bihar CM was left with a bloody nose as Modi mania swept Bihar in May 2014, relegating the JD-U to a ignominious tally of two parliamentary seats. In a bid to save his face, Kumar resigned and handed power to his hand picked successor Jitin Ram Manjhi to appease the Maha Dalit community which voted for the BJP in the General Elections. In the mean time, following the realignment of the political forces in Bihar, Nitish and his new found allies - the RJD and the Congress managed to edge past the BJP by winning 6 of the 10 seats that went for the by-polls, a consolation victory of sorts. Ironically though, months later, as Manjhi transformed from a 'docile' leader into a 'clever' politician refusing to be 'controlled' by his party boss, Nitish expelled him from the JD-U and was himself back as the Bihar CM for the third time. With back to back political blunders, many were wondering if Nitish's astute acumen has deserted him and if his reign as Bihar's most powerful leader were numbered. And the man behind Nitish's unraveling was none other than his bete noire - Narendra Modi.

The Bihar polls is the perfect platform for Bihar CM to settle scores with the PM. A victory for the Janata Parivaar would be a jolt to the Modi bandwagon which hit a major road block when the AAP decimated the saffron party in Delhi earlier this year. A win would help Nitish regain most of the political pride that he had lost in the last two years and would re-establish him as a force to reckon with besides being a major fillip to the merger of the factions of the JP. However, there is a much bigger prize to be won, something that most political analysts have over looked thus far; after the General Polls, there is no 'credible' face to represent the anti-Modi or the non-NDA parties in the political sphere. The most obvious and legitimate choice to fill in this vacancy - Sonia Gandhi is not keeping well whereas the negativity still surrounding Rahul means that most believe that he is not yet 'mature' enough for the job. Regional satraps like Jayalalithaa and Patnaik who managed to fend off the Modi wave in their respective home turfs have been on cordial terms with the new government. Mamata Bannerjee has of late mellowed her anti-Modi rhetoric. The mess around AAP in the recent months has hit Arvind Kejriwal's popularity; the party's influence has not moved beyond the NCR in spite of that fabulous victory in February. A victory for the JP under Nitish would automatically catapult him to being the new anti-Modi face in Indian politics.

The Ground Realities: Though the coalition may have been announced, it remains to be seen how the talks regarding the seat sharing arrangements between the many constituents of this grand alliance progress in the coming weeks. Though the issue of the CM candidate has been settled for now, the basis for seat allocation has become another pain point for the two parties. The RJD wants the 2014 General Elections to be the basis to arrive at the seat sharing formula whereas the JD-U wants it to be the 2010 state polls. A bigger worry for the leaders of the alliance is whether their cadre and workers at the ground level are able to forget all the past differences and work together as a team. Considering the 'hatred' that the JD-U and the RJD have shared in the past, that seems to be a near impossible task. And lastly, will the alliance be able to break the caste barrier? For example, will a Yadav who has a loyal voter of the RJD for decades now vote for a JD-U nominee contesting as a candidate of the JP from his seat? Considering that the Yadavs harbour a special dislike for Kumar for ending their political dominance in Bihar, will they be comfortable with him as the CM candidate? Moreover, it remains to be seen how much damage will the Manjhi mishap cost in terms of the Extremely Backward Caste (EBC) votes. Surely, the modern day 'Chanakya' will have to put in all the 'Neeti' and perhaps, even some 'Kutneeti' to score a memorable hat-trick! 

AMMA RETURNS

AIADMK SUPREMO IS BACK WITH A BANG

Much to the chagrin of her enemies, AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa who was given a clean chit by the Karnataka High Court in the disproportionate asset case couple of weeks ago is back, 'officially' the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu for the fifth time. After being convicted in the case and given a jail sentence for four years in September 2014, the regional satrap who swept to power in the last state polls had stepped down and entrusted the responsibility of the state to here confidante O Paneerselvam. Since then, she had maintained a rather low profile, refusing to make public appearances and this meant that most public projects were struck up since the 'Iron Lady' was not there to inaugurate them. Although this may sound hilarious for most of us, people following Dravidian politics will certainly not be surprised. After all, politics down south is as dramatic as the local cinema and most of the successful Tamil politicians including Jaya have their roots in the film industry.

With the AIADMK chief back at the helm of affairs, the prospects of her party in the state elections scheduled for the next year have blossomed overnight. After successive victories, first in the 2011 polls and then in the 2014 General Elections, the Amma Express was on a roll. The many freebies and welfare schemes launched during her tenure were paying off. Its primary opposition in the state - the DMK was battling allegations of corruption and the fight within its first family was only intensifying with each passing day. Just when everything seemed to be going right for Jaya and her followers, the ruling of the Karnataka HC came as a massive jolt, threatening to cut short her political ambitions for the time being. However, much to her relief, the recent ruling, acquitting her and three others of all allegations of wrong-doing during her previous tenure have only enhanced the 'aura' of invincibility surrounding her. Speaking after the verdict she said that she has come out of the 'ordeal' like pure gold; in fact, many believed that Jaya could even consider snap polls, trying to en-cash on the sympathy wave following her acquittal.

From the perspective of the AIADMK, the decision is a big fillip before it kick starts its campaign for the 2016 polls. The return of Amma as the CM of Tamil Nadu is set to herald in a new set of reforms as well as public welfare scheme - read 'freebies', aimed at consolidating her voter base that has stood firmly with her for some time now. Many schemes like the Chennai Metro which has been completed but not yet made operational, apparently since Jaya was not there to inaugurate it are likely to be opened for the public. Though state politics may be her primary concern as of now, the AIADMK is expected to now play a more proactive role in the Lok Sabha too where it is the third largest party with 37 members. Besides, its 11 members in the Rajya Sabha too could be actively wooed, both by the government and the various opposing blocks considering that many of the Bills could be stuck up in this house.

While one witnessed scenes of ecstatic celebrations in the AIADMK camp, a wave of gloom has set upon the DMK. Though Karuna tried to take a 'principled' stand saying that the 'court of conscience' was above all other courts, it is clear that his party's attempt to use this issue to script a revival has gone down the drain. The numerous problems plaguing the DMK just seem to be piling one after another. As if successive defeats were not enough, the fight between Stalin and Azaghiri that led to the ouster of the latter from the party has severely weakened its ranks. The allegations of graft against some of its prominent leaders including Karuna's daughter Kanimozhi, his nephew Dayanidhi Maran and former Telecom Minister A Raja has tarnished the party's image to a large extent. In the present context, it will take more than a miracle for Karuna and the DMK to prevent Jaya from winning a straight second term.

Although it was BJP leader Subramanian Swamy who had filed the case against the Tamil Nadu CM nearly two decades ago, Jaya's acquittal is likely to bring cheers to the saffron outfit. It is a well known fact that the PM and Jaya share a good personal rapport. After the verdict, Modi is believed to have called up Amma and congratulated her. With the AIADMK chief coming out clean from all the allegations levied against her, it makes it much easier for the BJP to work with her party. Since the NDA lacks the numbers in the Upper House, the saffronists would now try to strike some sort of a working deal, if not a partnership between the two political parties to check mate their enemies.

For the Congress though, the case could give it the leverage it needs to stage a comeback down south or at least try to get back some of the space that it has conceded to others. The local party unit is in tatters and unless it manages to make up with its former ally - the DMK which is unlikely, it will find it extremely difficult to even cross the two digit mark in the next state polls. But then, as fate would have it, the Congress is all set to play a key role in the Jaya saga which is far from over. After all, it is in power in Karnataka and it is up to the Siddaramaiah government to file a review petition in the Supreme Court against the HC verdict. In that scenario, the Tamil Nadu CM could be in for some problems in the near future. More importantly, the move will perhaps be the first step in the renewal of ties between the INC and the DMK which has been left red-faced after dropping of the charges against Jayalalithaa. However, the move could boomerang too since this may translate into more closer ties between the BJP and the AIADMK which will be a win-win situation for both.

With the party being relegated to a 'pariah' and regional satraps largely ostracizing it, the Congress rarely gets a chance to play a decisive role in politics nowadays. However, in the Jaya disproportionate asset case, it is the INC that holds the cards. The party leaders need to evaluate all the angles and come up with an action plan that can help it turn the tide in its favor. Whatever the party's government in Karnataka does, the implications of that decision will not only impact Tamil politics but will resonate in the National Parliament.

RAHUL VERSION 2.0

WHAT RAGA NEEDS TO DO TO REVIVE HIS CAREER & THE CONGRESS

After abandoning the Congress party for a good 57 days, the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi family - Rahul Gandhi made a grand return to the country couple of weeks back. Ever since his sojourn, he seems to be a changed man; much to the delight of the Congress leaders and supporters, he has been making the right kind of noises and attacking the Modi government on a wide range of issues. Be it standing up for the farmers against the Land Bill or speaking up for Net Neutrality in the Parliament or meeting home buyers in the NCR and raising their concerns over the amendments made to the Real Estate Bill, the MP from Amethi is slowly building up a strong front against the policies of the NDA government which has hardly delivered on any of the numerous tall promises it made during its election campaign.

Though I have been a critic of Rahul and his style of politics for long, I have been pretty impressed by Rahul - version 2.0 and whatever I have seen of it so far. With the 'honeymoon period' for the Modi government coming to an end, the failure of the incumbent regime to bring in the 'Aache Din' and the ignominious defeat faced by the BJP at the hands of the AAP in the Delhi polls, the Congress Vice President has upped the ante and is leading the much delayed Congress fight back from the front. His actions in mobilizing a united front consisting of farmers, the middle class and the youth to take on the NDA government in the past two weeks has taken most of us, be it political analysts or the common man, by surprise. Move over RTI and Women Empowerment, in his brand new avtaar Rahul Gandhi, like so many of the illustrious Congress leaders of the past is connecting with the people on the ground and engaging with the karya-kartas at the lowest levels to check mate the BJP lead national government in New Delhi.

Rahul's comeback has evoked contrasting response from various factions within the political circles of the country; naturally enough, the Congress has hailed this as a game-changer, the regional satraps are treading a cautious line, the media has termed it as a 'revelation' whereas the BJP sees this as just another attempt to relaunch the Gandhi's scion 'failing' political career. In my opinion, a more mature Gandhi junior is good news for our democracy. After all, he is all set to become the President of the largest Opposition party in the coming weeks. A strong, well-informed leader at the helm of affairs in the INC will keep PM Modi and his colleagues in the cabinet on the tenterhooks. At a time when many are scared that the fringe groups within the Sangh Parivaar may derail the government's development agenda, an Opposition led by a level headed Rahul may help check their excesses and raise the issue that are actually affecting the people.

This is certainly not the first time that the Amethi MP has burst out on the national scene all of a sudden. Be it speaking on behalf of Kalavati in the Parliament during the debate on the Indo-US Nuclear Deal or tearing off the ordinance protecting parliamentarians from arrest, Rahul has made waves in the past too. However, the problem with him seems to be that he fails in sustaining the enthusiasm surrounding him. The reluctant politician in him seems to arise every time one thinks that he is going to break out from the shackles and make a permanent space for himself in the political arena. Perhaps, he can take a leaf out of the book of his namesake - 'Mr Consistent' Rahul Dravid. Besides, here are a few more things that he can do so that the people of the country take him more seriously.

They say that a man is known by the company he keeps. The first thing that Rahul has to do is that he needs to do away with 'incompetent' advisors who have done more damage to his political career so far than good; people like Digvijaya Singh and Madhusudan Mistri need to go. The junior Gandhi has to surround himself with a coterie of people who have sharp political acumen and are aware of the aspiration of the electorate in different parts of the country. Moreover, there is a need to have state level leaders too in this committee who can help him take the right decisions. The more diverse and more competent this core group, the more returns it will yield for Rahul and his party.

Raising the right issues at the right time is an art that makes a successful politicians and this is something that the Amethi MP needs to master as soon as possible. As of now, he has done very well. The trip to Punjab to meet the farmers was a good move considering that the state goes for polls in 2017 and that there is simmering anti-incumbency against the Badals there. Speaking up for neutrality of the Internet has surely won him admirers amongst the youth, a constituency that had stood behind Modi during the 2014 General Elections. The meeting with the flat buyers and his opposition to the Real Estate Bill in Delhi will help in wooing the middle class, another section that had gravitated towards the BJP till some time back. It is imperative that Rahul keeps pilling on more pressure on the government at regular intervals.

Thirdly, the Congress Vice President has to be more accessible. The party workers on the ground have long complained that it is very difficult to get an audience with him. Rahul's absence on the social media, his minimal media interactions and his absence from the Parliament during the times of important debates only adds to the negative publicity surrounding him. It is high time that Rahul finally sheds this tag of being aloof from the realities on the ground. An account on Facebook and Twitter are long over due; considering that this is a good platform for connecting with the youth, the Amethi MP needs to make his debut on the social media as soon as possible. He has to address more press conferences and speak more often in the Parliament so that his views on issues of national importance are well known.

Next and more importantly, there is an immediate need to revive the Congress which seems to be moribund at the moment. After being reduced to 44 seats, the least in its history, the INC needs a complete reform. Earlier, Rahul has spoken about his ideas to reform the Congress by initiating schemes like holding primaries to select party candidates and decentralizing power by empowering state leaders. However, none of these ideas actually took off in the right spirit. The recent spate of electoral defeats that the party suffered in the past two years only has made the matters worse. The urgent need of the hour is for Rahul to take control of the party and infuse some enthusiasm amongst the party workers. As the morale of the workers will boost, the prospects of the INC too will brighten, thereby helping it regain lost ground.

Last and in no way the least, Gandhi needs to make some working arrangements with leaders of non-NDA parties in the Parliament so that pressure can be built up on the Modi regime. TO begin with, the Amethi MP has to improve the co-ordination between the various parties that are still within the UPA. The Bihar by-polls has shown that the only way to combat the BJP is to form newer, innovative alliances cutting across traditional political barriers. In this aspect, the relaunched Janata Parivaar is a strong anti-Modi Front and Gandhi has to work more closely with the likes of Mulayum, Lalu and Nitish so that they can take on the NDA in the Parliament. The Left parties have always stood against the BJP and befriending Karat & Co. should not be difficult. Regional players like Mamata, Mayawati, Chandrashekar Rao and Karunanidhi can be cajoled into forming alliances with the Congress for the state polls. Certainly, Rahul Gandhi's political success in the near future could depend on how many friends he can win in the next few months.

ABANDONING THE SINKING SHIP

RAHUL'S LEAVE IS THE LAST THING THAT THE CONGRESS WANTED

A good captain never abandons the ship even if it means that he has to go down with it. Unfortunately though, it looks like Baba never learnt this lesson while in school. What else can explain the latest amongst the 'unending' list of blunders that the MP from Amethi has committed over the past one year. Even as the Congress was planning to use the opposition against the Land Acquisition Bill as a comeback tool to counter the Modi regime particularly after the setback it suffered in the national capital, Rahul's absence has only made the matters worse for the Congress. Forget attacking the BJP over the 'short comings' of the above mentioned bill on the floor of the Lok Sabha, the INC spokespersons had a tough time defending the antics of their Vice President who seems to have a natural flare for 'messing up things'.

As per some theories doing the rounds, the Gandhi scion is quite unhappy with the fact he does not have a free hand within the party structure headed by his ailing mother as yet. It is believed that Rahul wants to completely revamp the party structure, throw out the old guard and bring in 'fresh' blood so as to rejuvenate the 130 year old outfit which is literally struggling for its survival. Though most of his 'innovative' ideas failed to yield any sort of result in the May 2014 General Polls, the younger Gandhi and his coterie of followers believe that this is the way to go for the INC. Like many, the party president herself seems to be rather unimpressed. With Sonia refusing to give into his demands, Rahul has decided to make his displeasure public by going on a two week long 'sabbatical' as a sign of protest.

However, the loyalists have a different take on this. They believe that Rahul who is soon to be anointed as the President of the grand old party in the coming month has taken a 'break' to reflect on things and contemplate on ideas that he would like to implement after he takes over. Now, this is hilarious, isn't it? Firstly, does the MP from Amethi even have the caliber to hold a post that was once occupied by great men by Jawaharlal Nehru, Lokmanya Tilak or Netaji Subash Chandra Bose; In my opinion, the answer to that question is a 'No'. Of course, the loyalists will point out that post independence, the only qualification to be a Congress President is to be born in the Nehru-Gandhi family and Baba fulfills this criteria. Even if we chose to ignore that for the time being, what shocks me is that the move to go on leave on the eve of the Budget session, considering the moribound state of affairs in the party. Rahul should have personally led the attack on the government; after all, the Land Acquisition Bill introduced by the UPA in 2013 was said to be his brain child. By excusing himself from the Parliament at this critical juncture, the 'soon-to-be' President of the Congress has let another opportunity to lead a revival slip out of his hands.

At the heart of this debate is when will Baba grow up. The Gandhi scion is in mid 40s now and his report card is dismal. Though Congress leaders would like the nation to look upon him as a 'youth icon', he is certainly not that. The Indian youth today are confident in making tough decisions and are not scared of taking accountability of their actions, much unlike Rahul. It is high time that the Gandhi scion sheds his 'reluctant politician' tag and takes up his job more seriously; else his 'short-lived' career in politics would also bring down the curtains on India's oldest political party.

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part VII

THE BIG WINNERS AND LOSERS

It is but imperative that we start this post by lauding the efforts of the Chief Electoral Officer of Delhi Chandra Bhushan Kumar, his entire team and the security forces in making sure that the whole voting process went on smoothly. In spite of the fact that Delhites were voting for the third time in last 14 months, they came out in record numbers to exercise their democratic right. The voting percentage was a little over 67 much more than that seen during the Lok Sabha polls which shows that we Indians have still not lost faith in the political system.

With the AAP having swept the polls, winning a staggering 67 of the 70 seats, it is but natural that all of its top guns have won their respective constituencies. Leading the list of the big winners is the party chief Arvind Kejriwal who retained the prestigious New Delhi seat by a mrgin of over 31,000 votes beating Nupur Sharma of the BJP and Kiran Walia of the Congress. His close aide and former state cabinet minister Manish Sissodia too was successful from Patparganj where he beat his former colleague Vinod Kumar Binny who was fighting on a BJP ticket. Meanwhile, former ministers Somnath Bharati and Rakhi Bildan who were in the news for all the wrong reasons during the AAP's 49 day regime emerged victorious from Malviya Nagar and Mangol Puri respectively.

Other prominent winners from the AAP include former ministers - Satyendra Kumar Jain (Shakur Basti), Saurabh Bharadwaj (Greater Kailash) and Girish Soni (Madipur) and former Congress leader Alka Lamba (Chandini Chowk).

Considering that only three BJP candidates were able to tide over the AAP tsunami, they deserve to be in the list of the winners. These include Om Prakash Sharma (Vishwas Nagar), Vijendra Kumar (Rohini) and Jagdish Pradhan (Mustafabad).

The casualties in the saffron camp were many. Perhaps, the biggest amongst them was the party's CM candidate Kiran Bedi herself who lost from Krishna Nagar which is believed to be a BJP strong hold since it has been nurtured by former state party leader and Union Minister Dr. Harshavardhan. She was beaten by AAP candidate S K Bagga by a margin of over 2,400 votes. Another well known state leader Prof. Jagdish Mukki had to bite the dust from Janakpuri as he lost out to his rival Rajesh Rishi by over 25,00 votes. Meanwhile, former AAP leaders who had joined the BJP ahead of the polls including former Speaker M S Dhir (Jangapura) and Vinod Kumar Binny (Patparganj) too were beaten. Similarly, former Union Minister Krishna Tirath who had jumped to the saffron camp from the Congress lost from the Patel Nagar constituency. Also, former DU president Nupur Sharma who was pitted against AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal lost by over 30,000 votes.

For the Congress, its campaign chief Ajay Maken lost his deposit from Sardar Bazaar having been beaten by AAP's Som Dutt who polled over 67,000 votes. Like him, former Child and Women Welfare Minister Dr. Kiran Walia lost to the AAP chief having got just over 4,700 votes. Other bigger losers from the party include Muslim faces - Shoaib Iqbal (Matia Mahal) and Haroon Yusuf (Congress), President's daughter Sharmistha Mukherjee (Greater Kailash) and Dr. Yoganand Shastri (Malviya Nagar).

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part VI

THE RESULTS

Though the Opinion polls may have been unanimous in declaring the AAP as the clear winner in the Delhi elections 2015 after the votes were cast on February 7, the magnitude of their victory was grossly under-estimated. Nobody, not even the likes of Kejriwal or Yogendra Yadav would have anticipated that their party would bag over 95 percent of the seats in the state assembly. As Shiv Sena supremo Uddhav Thackeray put it, it seemed that the 'Modi wave' was swept aside by the 'tsunami' in favor of the Aam Admi Party. As early as December last year, many felt that the AAP would find it extremely difficult to get a decent tally, forget thoughts of going past the half way mark, especially after a series of political blunders that they had committed in the past year. The whitewash in the national capital in the Lok Sabha polls was hailed as the beginning of the end of the anti-corruption party. In what can be best described as a 'fairy tale', thousands of AAP volunteers ably led by Kejriwal & Co. worked day in and day out to capitalize on the errors made by the BJP to turn the tide in their favor by getting across their vision for Delhi to the masses.

Courtesy: HD Wallpapers wala

The AAP's phenomenal tally of 67 seats is special in many ways. There are very rare instances in multi-party democracies like ours wherein a single party manages to win such a large percentage of seats. The only other state where such a pattern has been observed in recent times was in Sikkim where the ruling SDF under CM Pawan Kumar Chamling won all 32 seats in the 2009 elections to the state assembly. Prior to that, the party had won 31 seats in 2004. Another important trend to notice is that Kejriwal's outfit won nearly 54 percent of the total votes; again, the way our election process is structured, this is not very common. In fact, 55 of the 67 winning candidates of the AAP won over 55 percent of the votes in their respective constituencies, a clear indication that they had won the confidence of the people across all parts of the city. Prominent winners from the party include Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, Somnath Bharati, Rakhi Bidlan and Alka Lamba.

Sr.	Political Party	Seats
1	Aam Admi Party (AAP)	67
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	3
3	Congress (INC)	0
4	Others	0

With this memorable win, the AAP has finally managed to stem the Modi juggernaut that had enjoyed unprecedented success in last eight months. The odds were heavily stacked against them. However, the relatively new outfit must be credited for the manner in which they ran their campaign ever since Kejriwal resigned from his post in February last year. With the BJP delaying the elections to the state assembly for reasons best known to them, the AAP got the time to re-group and formulate a strategy to counter the saffronists who were trying to cash in on PM Modi's popularity. Through Delhi Dialogue, the party managed to read the pulse of the voters while convincing them that they would not run away from power this time around. A strict screening process to select candidates and an effective social media campaign further helped their cause. Their 70 point agenda that included some populist measures helped them woo the lower and middle income groups away from the two national parties and helped the AAP register a historic win.

Courtesy: Desktop HD Wallpapers

For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the results of the Delhi polls have been their worst nightmare. Having bagged 31 seats in the 2013 state elections and won all seven seats in the parliamentary seats the following year, the saffron camp was reduced to just three seats. There is a serious need for introspection within the BJP as many political activists have pointed out, they seem to have handed an easy victory to the AAP on the platter. The delay in scheduling the polls seems to be the first mistake that the party made. As if it was not enough, the infighting within the party's state leadership as well as the move to parachute Kiran Bedi to led the campaign seem to have further contributed to their pathetic performance. In fact, the party seemed to have focused more on 'maligning' Kejriwal's image with PM Modi leading the pitch, rather than telling the people of Delhi what their plans are for the capital. The process of selecting candidates was delayed whereas the saffron camp did not even release a proper manifesto. All in all, the party seemed to have paid a heavy price for being arrogant and for running a 'negative' campaign in the polls. In what was a major setback, the party's CM candidate Kiran Bedi was beaten by AAP's S K Bagga from their stronghold of Krishna Nagar. The only silver lining was that its vote share as compared to the last state polls remained almost stagnant.

For the grand old party of Indian politics, the situation seems to be worsening. The Congress which had ruled the national capital for three straight terms could not even open its account. It managed to win just over 8 percent of the total votes where 62 of its 70 candidates even lost their deposits. Amongst them was its campaign chief Ajay Maken. It is imperative that the party's High Command takes some serious steps to arrest the decline in the fortunes of the INC.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part V

THE THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR

I am pretty sure that most of you will agree with me when I say that the elections to Delhi will be the most keenly fought electoral contest following the General polls 2014. The campaign was as bitter as it was intense. Unlike the other recently concluded state polls where the Congress put up a rather feeble resistance to the saffron juggernaut, the BJP seems to have found a worthy opponent in the AAP in the national capital. The AAP leadership as well as the thousands of volunteers and karya kartas working for Kejriwal's outfit deserve a round of applause for resurrecting the party from the shambles after the thumping that it got in May last year all thanks to morchas, bike rallies and nukkad nataks (street dramas) that they have undertaken in the last two months. Of course, the saffronists too made their work easier after a series of electoral blunders that saw them lose a lot of ground to their opponents as the polling date approached. In fact, opinion polls suggest that AAP may actually hold an edge over the BJP; meanwhile, the INC's situation continues to be pathetic. The impact that these polls will have will be huge and here are the points to watch out for as the EVMs are opened and the results are announced this Tuesday:

(1) The AAP's Battle For Survival: One can understand why the Delhi polls is so important for the Aam Admi Party (AAP) and its chief. After being demolished in the General polls and being wiped out of Delhi, Kejriwal & Co. have put all on the line. While many expected them to take a defensive line in wake of the May 2014 drubbing, the party cadre worked relentlessly to consolidate their substantial vote base amongst the low income workers and migrants who have traditional been Congress loyalists, besides luring a sizable chunk of traders away from the saffron camp. In spite of the fact that several of its former leaders have crossed over to the opposing camp, the AAP has fought the BJP tooth and nail using limited means and through unconventional and innovative methods, making sure that their vision of a corruption-free Delhi is put across to the electorate. While highlighting their performance during 49 day long government that the party had formed with the outside support of the Congress, Kejriwal has attacked the NDA regime at the Center for failing to do anything for the people of the capital in spite of being in power for the last seven months.

It is a 'do or die' scenario for the the former IRS officer and his outfit. A win would herald a second innings that would help it expand its support base beyond Delhi whereas a defeat could mean an abrupt end to AAP's political fortunes, making it one of the many parties that promised big things but could never deliver anything substantial. In politics, it is rare that a party gets an opportunity to make a comeback and it remains to be seen if Kejriwal and his outfit can grab this golden opportunity with both hands and make the most out of it, failing which, it could well sink into the oblivion.

(2) The End of Modi Mania? The BJP just had the best year in its three decade long history. Besides winning a clear majority on the floor of the Lok Sabha this May, it emerged victorious in Haryana and Jharkhand. In Maharashtra where it fought the polls without its ally - the Shiv Sena, the saffron outfit emerged as the single largest party, winning nearly twice as many seats as its friend turned foe turned friend. In Jammu Kashmir too, the party fared well, picking up 25 seats, all coming from the Hindu dominated Jammu region. It is clear that the persona of the PM Narendra Modi as a pro-development, no non-sense leader has largely been responsible for this wave of support to the BJP across most parts of the country, including those where the party has had minimal historical presence. As the Modi juggernaut has rolled, the BJP has been able to snatch state after state from the Congress and other weak regional satraps who seem to have been blown away.

However, the big question is whether the Kejriwal would be the man who could put a brake on the Modi bandwagon which till a month back looked unstoppable. Opinion polls suggest that the fight for the capital could be a photo finish between the two main contenders - the BJP and the AAP. The PM has addressed several rallies in Delhi where he tore into the Kejriwal's 'dismal' record while in office and asked him to join the Naxalites. On the other hand, the AAP chief's rallies too saw massive turnouts, much more than that of BJP's CM nominee Kiran Bedi. In fact, regional satraps including Mamta Bannerjee who are gearing up to fight the saffronists in their own backyards have put their weight behind the AAP, an indication of how important that results of Delhi 2015 could be on the Indian political landscape.

There has been a certain section in the media that believes that the Delhi polls are a referendum on Modi. In my opinion, such an analysis is a little far fledged. While the national capital is a cosmopolitan city, the voting patterns here, as in many of the other states and cities across the country cannot be extrapolated to the country as a whole. Of course, while a loss would be a blow to the PM, a victory will be the crowning glory in what has been a superb 14 month period for him and his party.

(3) Can 'Master Strategist' Amit Shah deliver yet again: Though the BJP fought the polls under the leadership of Narendra Modi, it was his Man Friday, Amit Shah was the real architect of the party's amazing tally in May last year. As the chief of the saffron outfit's campaign in the mega state of Uttar Pradesh, he ran an efficient campaign using Modi's persona, flaring up communal sentiments and striking deals with various socio-political organizations, thereby helping the BJP and its ally - the Apna Dal win 73 of the 80 parliamentary seats, a feat unparalleled in the country's electoral history. While the Gandhis and the Yadavs were reduced to their pocket boroughs, Mayawati's BSP was wiped off. As such, it did not come as a surprise when the former Gujarat Home Minister was made the national party president last year.

The move has certainly paid off. In Haryana, he decided to ditch the HJC and the saffron camp still managed to go past the half way mark at 45, forming its first government in the state's electoral history. In Jharkhand, he decided to play safe, forging an alliance with the Mahato's AJSU; the move paid off again with the coalition beating the Congress and the JMM. In the big state of Maharashtra, he took the risk of breaking ties with the Shiv Sena as the saffron allies failed to reach an agreeable seat sharing formula. As the results were announced, Maharashtra had its first BJP CM with members of the Sena joining his cabinet. Though his ambitious 'Mission 44+' did not exactly materialize in J&K, the BJP still win 25 seats, the most it had won ever. No wonder, he is considered to be the best electoral strategist in the country.

Unfortunately for him and his party, Shah's magic seems to be waning in Delhi this time around with the BJP committing one blunder after another. At the beginning of the campaign, the party appointed Satish Upadhyay as the head of its campaign instead of making Dr Harshavardhan its face in the state. With the AAP growing from strength to strength, the saffronists made Kejriwal's former colleague in the anti-corruption movement Kiran Bedi its CM candidate. Although the move was hailed by some as a master stroke, as days went by, it became clear that the former IPS officer failed to match the former Delhi CM's charisma at least in the political arena. In a desperate attempt to bolster the party's fortunes ahead of the polling day, the party president got in a host of bigwigs including the PM, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, Power Minister Piyush Goyal, Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and over 100 MPs to canvass for the party's nominees. Will this last ditch attempt pay off or will Delhi be a blot on Shah's rather envious report card so far.

(4) Kiran Bedi's political future: While there could be doubts whether the Delhi polls is a referendum on AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal or PM Narendra Modi, one thing is clear. The way the national capital votes will decide for sure, the fate of one politician - BJP's Kiran Bedi. The former tough cop who was with Anna Hazare in the anti-corruption movement is now in the saffron camp. In fact, her appointment as the BJP's CM candidate reportedly sparked infighting amongst the numerous camps that the Delhi unit of the party finds itself in. Though the AAP chief termed this as a move to shield Modi from the blame of the defeat, many thought that Bedi's clean image would compliment the wave in support of the BJP and help it go past the half way mark. Unfortunately, Bedi has not managed to 'set the stage on fire'. A defeat to the BJP would mean the end of her political ambitions though she is expected to easily win her constituency of Krishna Nagar, the stronghold of BJP leader Dr. Harshavardhan. A victory though would make her the CM of the capital.

(5) The fate of the Congress: The 'bad times' for the grand old party seems to never get over. As if the spate of electoral defeats over the last year were not enough, the INC seems to be headed to a third position finish in the Delhi state polls too. Clearly, the move to get in former Union Minister Ajay Maken has not worked the way the loyalists would have thought. The Opinion Polls indicate that the Congress may in fact perform worse than it did in December 2013 when it was reduced to just eight seats. This would be a massive blow to the party and its supporters. Following the rout in the General Polls last year, it seems that the party has not yet been able to re-invent itself or to put it in other words, the electorate has still not forgiven the party for the mistakes that it committed during its decade long regime at the Centre. Anything more than 8 would at least indicate that the Congress has improved its position somewhat whereas a tally less than that would raise serious questions over the party's future. In that case, the voices against Rahul Gandhi and his coterie of supporters will only grow stronger and many heavyweights might actually quit the 'sinking ship' like former minister Jayanti Natarajan did a few days ago.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part IV

A LOT IS AT THE STAKE FOR THE AAM ADMI PARTY

Though I have been a vivid follower of Indian politics over the last 12 years, I must confess that I have never seen the fortunes of any single political party swing from one end of the scale to the other in such a small time frame viz a viz the Aam Admi Party. Formed by former IPS officer Arvind Kejriwal and his coterie of confidantes following differences of opinion over the future of the anti-corruption movement with their mentor Anna Hazare, the outfit thrived in the national capital all thanks to the growing discontent over the policy paralysis that had become the hallmark of the then Manmohan Singh led UPA II regime. At a time when Modi mania had not yet set in, at least in most parts of the country, Kejriwal managed to captivate the minds of the voters in Delhi, chiefly the middle class by promising to eradicate corruption and reduce power tariffs.

In the 2013 state polls, the AAP on its debut, won a staggering 28 seats, just three seats less than the BJP; with the outside support of the Congress, Arvind was sworn in as the Chief Minister of Delhi, a move hailed by many including me back then, as the first step towards cleansing the entire political system in the country. In the next few days, as the funds started flowing into the party's account, the membership of the AAP too grew by leaps and bounds; several eminent people from many different streams left their 'thriving' professions to join the party as it began spreading its network beyond the borders of the capital. Once in power, Kejriwal did fulfill some of the promises he had made during the campaign like reducing the power tariffs. However, his 49 day reign was marred a host of controversies like Somanath Bharati's mid night raid and the fiasco surrounding his resignation after the Lokpal Bill failed to pass the test in the legislative assembly.

Though supporters of the AAP may not agree with me on this, at least in the open, Kejriwal's move of resigning from the post of the CM was a calculated one. Perhaps, he had hoped that the 'sacrifice' he had made in passing the anti-graft legislation would help him win the hearts of the people across the country. What the former IRS officer failed to realize was that by this time, BJP's PM nominee's talk of development had managed to strike a chord with the masses. The General Polls was a disaster from the AAP's perspective . Of the 400 odd seats that it contested, the party won just four seats even as a host of of its top leaders including Kejriwal himself had to bite the dust. In the next few days, the fortunes of the AAP declined with many observers dipping their pens in black ink and writing its obituaries. Voices of rebellion against the party chief and his coterie grew by the day even as many bigwigs resigned from the outfit.

The next state polls to the Delhi legislative assembly though is without doubt, the most important juncture in the AAP's political history; the results scheduled on February 10 could be the big 'make or break' moment for the Kejriwal led party. With the polls most likely to be a direct contest between the AAP and the BJP, the stakes are high for Arvind Kejriwal; he needs to put the bitter experiences of the past behind and re-affirm his hold over the party. Aware of this, the party decided against putting up candidates in the recently concluded state polls and concentrate only on the capital. The party's campaign is on full swing and the crowds turning out at Kejrwal's gathering indicate that he is not going to go down without a fight.

If the AAP does manage to go past the half way or for a fact even manages to finish as the single largest party in the next assembly, a very likely option, it would herald a second innings for the outfit as well as its chief. This scenario will give him the chance to govern the capital for a full term and implement the many promises he has made to the electorate in the past few months. Besides, this could be the model government that the outfit could showcase to the people across the country, thereby helping him build a strong support base outside Delhi. With Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand going to the polls in the next two years, Kejriwal and the AAP would be in a solid position to make in roads in these surrounding states provided he is in power in the capital. Moreover, all the questions being raised regarding Arvind's 'autocratic' style of functioning will be brushed aside. Moreover, the aura of invincibility surrounding the persona of the PM and the BJP president Amit Shah will be diminished to a large extent, allowing parties like the AAP and for that matter, even the Congress to make a political comeback of sorts.

A loss in the polls to the BJP though would mean a 'death knail' in the political career of the former Delhi CM. For long now, reports have indicated that a series of leaders in the party including Yogendra Yadav, Kumar Vishwas and Shanti Bhushan are miffed with Kejriwal. They believe that the AAP chief has strayed from the path of anti-corruption only to fulfill his personal agenda. In case, the AAP does lose out to the BJP, these voices will only gather momentum in the coming days; in that scenario, the former IRS officer will have to resign from the post of party president citing moral responsibility, failing which, another split in the party is imminent. For the party though, as the principal opposition to the BJP, it will still play a major role in Delhi politics for some years with or without Kejriwal at the helm of affairs. However, by the 2020, one must not be surprised if the battle for the capital becomes a two-sided affair between the saffron outfit and the grand old party, relegating the AAP to the fringes. Under these circumstances, the party's dream of forming a government at the Centre will be all but over.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part III

THREE REASONS WHY THE BJP MAY NOT WIN THE DELHI POLLS

Though the BJP emerged as the single largest party in the last state polls and painted the national capital in 'saffron' six months later, Modi & Co seem to be on shaky grounds a month before Delhi goes to the polls for the second time in 14 months. Although the party won the national elections, defended two states and won four more from the Congress in this period, the toughest challenge that the incumbent PM and his party face after the recent spate of victories will be going past the halfway mark in the Delhi legislative assembly. Truly, it will be the real test of the Modi mania post his stellar performance in the Lok Sabha polls. The following are the reasons why the saffronists are feeling jittery ahead of the polls:

(1) No direct fight with the Congress: Although Modi, Amit Shah and other BJP leaders must be credited for leading the party to a famous victory over arch rival - the Congress in the General Polls as well as a host of states over the last year, there is no doubt that the negativity surrounding the INC also played a key role in the saffron outfit's stellar performance. Especially in its second term, the UPA regime headed by Manmohan Singh became synonymous with 'corruption'.

Let us examine the performance of the BJP over the span of last 18 months. In December 2013, the saffronists were able to retain Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh in spite of being in power here for a decade; they won an impressive four-fifths majority in Rajasthan and emerged as the single largest party in Delhi. In the big polls, the BJP led NDA won over 330 seats even as the UPA failed to go past 60 seats. In Maharashtra, the party ended with a superb tally of 123 seats in spite of a public fallout with the Sena, more than the number of seats that they would generally contest in the western state if the coalition would have continued. Up north, history was created twice; first in Haryana where the BJP won a simple majority on its own, followed by Jharkhand where its alliance with the AJSU managed to scrape past the required mark. At the same time, the party recorded below par performances in the by-polls in Bihar and UP while it was trounced by the PDP in the race to be the largest party in Jammu Kashmir.

The bottom line is clear; in the recent past, the BJP has done well when it is pitted against the Congress whereas its performance is lackluster when the saffronists square up against strong regional players except in Jharkhand. In Delhi, the February elections are expected to be a straight fight between the BJP and the AAP. As such, unlike last time, the BJP does not have the advantage of banking on the 'anti-incumbency' against the Congress.

(2) The re-emergence of the AAP: The meteoric rise of the Aam Admi Party on the political scenario post their dream debut in Delhi 2013 was marred by a rather long list of electoral blunders - resigning from the government in the national capital, the decision to contest the General Elections et all. Post the defeat in the nation wide polls, the Kejriwal led outfit was lying low with many raising questions over its future. However, the elections to the Delhi legislative assembly is the best opportunity for the AAP to script a fairy tale comeback.

Kejriwal & Co. know that the results in the February polls could be the key to AAP's national ambitions. If it does well, the party could see itself expanding in other states in the next few years whereas a defeat could spell doom. This is why, Arvind Kejriwal and other leaders of the AAP are giving it all. Realizing that the fight is against the BJP, the party that was born out of Anna Hazare's anti-corruption crusade has come out all guns blazing and accused the Modi regime of renegading the promises it made during the poll campaign. Besides, the party continues to have strong voter base, especially amongst the poor and the migrants who look upon it as an alternative to the national parties who have lost their credibility to a large extent.

Moreover, the AAP though it was in power for only 49 days, is still praised by many for the initiatives taken by Kejriwal when he was in power. Also, the angry over his resignation amongst the people of Delhi also seems to have subsided to a large extent.

(3) Infighting: What could derail the Modi bandwagon in the capital is the reported infighting in the BJP which is believed to be split into several warring factions. This is perhaps the reason that the party has decided not to project any leader as its Chief Ministerial candidate if it is voted to power after warming the Opposition benches in the state legislature for over three straight terms. The factional feud is also affecting the ticket distribution; while most parties have already declared their nominees for most of the constituencies, the saffron outfit is yet to make its list official.

The BJP fought the 2013 polls under the leadership of Dr. Harshvardhan who is presently serving as a minister in the Union cabinet. He is unlikely to return to state politics even if the saffron outfit wins. This time around, the party's campaign committee is headed by former student leader Satish Upadhyay who has been with the RSS. Heavy weights like Vijay Goel, Jagdish Mukhi and Vijay Kumar Malhotra are said to be heading the various factions in the state unit of the party and fancying their chances for the top post. The joining of former Kejriwal aide Kiran Bedi has further added fuel to the fire with many feeling that she could be the surprise choice for the CM's chair. Even party spokesperson and MP Meenakshi Lekhi could be a consensus candidate to keep all factions happy.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part II

MAKEN TO THE RESCUE

Aware that it could be relegated to the third position for a second time in a row, the Congress has decided to shake up things by appointing Ajay Maken as the head of its electoral 'campaign' for the Delhi state polls, scheduled for February 2015. While it is pretty clear that the contest is going to be a direct fight between the BJP and the AAP, the INC's move to bring in the former Union minister is seen as an desperate attempt to get an image makeover ahead of the elections. After being decimated in the last state polls where it failed to go past the two digit mark in its former strong hold and following a sting of electoral defeats in 2014 including a disastrous General Elections, the grand old party is at its lowest point in its 120 year long chequered history. However, what bothered political observers and analysts the most was its sheer lack of conviction in doing any sort of introspection into the many issues that are plaguing the INC at present and taking certain 'tough' decisions to arrest its continued decline rather than offering mere lip service.

For a change though, the party surprised everyone by putting the former Sports Minister at the helm of affairs in the poll bound national capital; while this many not have any significant bearing on the result of the Delhi elections, it is certainly a step in the right direction. The fifty year old leader who shot to fame after winning the elections to the post of president of the Delhi University (DU) in 1983, won three consecutive terms in the state legislative assembly from 1993 to 2003 and also held various portfolios in the Sheila Dixit cabinet. In 2004, he contested the Union Polls and represented the prestigious New Delhi parliamentary constituency for two straight terms. Following the Congress' defeat in the 2013 state polls which it fought under the leadership of the then incumbent CM, there was a void in the party's state unit which was left licking its wounds having being reduced to just eight seats. What made the matters worse was the total wipe out in the parliamentary polls wherein some of its most popular faces - Kapil Sibal and Ajay Maken himself lost out to the saffron party that was riding high on the Modi wave. Aware of the fact that the INC is fast losing its remaining voter base in Delhi to the BJP and the AAP, this decision seems to make some sense. And here are the reasons. Maken, a loyal Congressman has been in politics for nearly three decades and brings in loads of experience of working both at the state and at the Centre. Secondly, he is amongst the handful of Congressmen to have a 'clean' public image. Thirdly, by projecting him as their leader, the INC has distanced itself from former Delhi CM Sheila Dixit who is seen as being ineffective in controlling rampant corruption prevalent during her 15 year term. It also helps the party tackle anti-incumbency. And most importantly, Maken is said to be close to the party Vice President Rahul Gandhi which is a one-requisite for occupying any high profile post in the party.

As I have already mentioned earlier, the impact that Maken may have on the results could be negligible. I mean, for the state that the Congress finds itself in, winning even 10 to 12 seats could be considered a 'phenomenal performance'. At the same time, in my opinion, this is the first time that the party seems to have taken a right step post the 2014 Lok Sabha debacle. The move to project Ajay as its face in the capital may not have any immediate results. Yet, it is an important step keeping the party's political future in mind. The Congress has lost the faith of the masses and the cadre morale is low following the series of electoral reverses in the past few months. As such, people like Maken who have literally emerged from the grass roots could help in rebuilding the grand old party. It will be in the interest of the INC to persist with the former minister irrespective of the tally that the party wins.

However, the big questions still remain unanswered. In spite of leading an extremely inactive and spineless campaign that saw the Congress register its worst ever results in the nation wide polls, Rahul Gandhi continues to be the No 2 within the party. Isn't it time to 'reprimand' the crown prince and his coterie for the mistakes that they committed? Similarly, is the first family ready to give a free hand to state leaders and not interfere in their functioning at the fear of losing their grip within the ranks? And most importantly, is the INC ready to reinvent its outdated and pro-minority ideology to remain relevant in the political landscape? And then, these are just a few questions that are glaring in the face of India's oldest political outfit. The decisions that it makes today will decide if the party could ever reclaim its numero uno position in Indian politics.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015 , click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part I

MODI v/s KEJRIWAL - ACTION SHIFTS FROM VARANASI TO DELHI

In April last year, AAP supremo and former CM of Delhi Arvind Kejriwal announced his candidature against BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi from the prestigious constituency of Varanasi along the banks of the River Ganga. Till then, it had been a fairy tale journey for the former IRS officer who was less than an year old in politics. Four months earlier, his newly launched outfit had managed to do the impossible; in the Delhi state polls, the Aam Admi Party (AAP) had a dream debut as it ended with a superlative tally of 28 seats, catapulting it amongst the most popular parties in the political arena. With 'corruption' occupying the central stage, the AAP's vision of a 'graft-free' India found popular support amongst the masses. In spite of falling short of a majority on its own, Kejriwal was sworn in as the Chief Minister of the capital after the Congress party which the former revenue officer had earlier referred to as the 'most corrupt political party' decided to give him outside support for the sake of keeping the 'communal' forces a.k.a the BJP at bay. The arrangement did not remain for long though; after a 49 day tenure largely marred by many unwanted controversies that further hit the outfit's credibility, Kejriwal resigned as he did not have the numbers to pass his pet - Lokpal Bill.

He did not lose heart though; encouraged by the success of his experiments in Delhi, Kejriwal chose to put all the drama behind and decided to go for the big prize. Though his infant party lacked organization and structure in most parts of the country, he decided to nominate candidates from over 400 parliamentary seats. And as if to drive home a point, he personally jumped into the fray against Gujarat CM Modi who was emerging as the clear front runner to the post of country's next PM. Unfortunately, Kejriwal's gamble failed. As the BJP painted the entire country in saffron, the former Delhi CM cut a sorry figure, with many raising questions over his political future.

In my opinion, the Aam Admi Party paid a heavy price for being 'over ambitious'. At a time when Narendra Modi was raising the hopes of a nation that was feeling let down by its incumbent regime through his agenda of 'inclusive development', Kejriwal's campaign of targeting politicians found relatively fewer takers. This was reflected in the results as AAP managed to win just four seats. It was routed in its stronghold of Delhi; most of its prominent leaders including the likes of Kumar Vishwas, Shazia Ilmi and Yogendra Yadav lost to their high profile opponents. And most importantly, the AAP chief himself was trounced by Modi by an impressive margin of over 3.37 lakh votes.

Though he won the face-ff against Kejriwal in Varanasi, the incumbent PM is certainly not the one to forgive and forget. As such, when he spoke at an election rally to kick start the saffron outfit's campaign for Delhi, he tore into the AAP chief's rather short-lived tenure as the state's CM. Though he did not take names, Modi advised the former IRS officer who had once called himself an 'anarchist' to join hands with the Naxals. In a bid to prevent the AAP from drawing political mileage from their move to cut electricity tariffs, the PM promised to raise power generation in the country to make sure it is available for all at cheaper rates. In his 38 minute speech, the PM's went on a complete offensive against Kejriwal aware that the battle for Delhi would be a direct contest between the BJP and the AAP.

Now, he may be down but the AAP leader is definitely not out. After all, even the idea to contest against Modi from Varanasi was a gutsy one. And in spite of a series of setbacks last year, Kejriwal refused to take the salvos fired by the PM lying down. Speaking to the media after the PM's election rally, he refuted the charges against him. Besides, he also accused the BJP government of failing to fulfill the promises it made to the people prior to the General Polls.

So, the stage is set for the second part of the Modi v/s Kejriwal saga. Will Modi make it 2-0 or will the AAP chief make him eve-steven? Lets wait and watch.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)