MAIDAN-e-JUNG - Part V

KEY TAKEAWAYS

(5) Ballot over Bullet: In spite of the calls for boycott by separatist leaders and killings of Sarpanchs across party lines by Pakistan backed militants, the people of the state of Jammu Kashmir came out in record numbers to exercise their democratic right as promised under the Indian Constitution. While many in New Delhi have hailed this as a 'pro-India' vote, it is important that we must not jump the gun. Whether we like it or not, there is a large section of population particularly in the Valley that has 'issues' with India. Instead of playing politics over the turnout, we need to take concrete efforts to make sure that the northern state and its people are completely integrated into the country. The people of the Valley have shown tremendous faith in the Indian democracy by choosing to take part in the recently concluded free and fair polls, something that can never happen across the other side of the border. Now it is up to the politicians to make sure that they deliver on their promises and don't let them down. At the same time, we must also commend the Election Commission of India and the security forces for making sure that the state elections were held peacefully in the politically volatile region.

(4) No respite in sight for the Congress: Considering the plight of the party in other parts of the country, Congressmen should be happy that they managed to cut down their losses and finished with a tally of 12 seats. But then, the sorry state of affairs in the grand old party is a major cause of concern. It goes on to show that the INC just does not have the will to initiate steps to put things back on track. The party seems to be waiting for a miracle to happen; at least as long as Rahul is at the helm of affairs, it is highly unlikely something of that sort could happen anytime in the near future. What should worry the INC is that not only is it losing ground, the BJP led by Modi is making inroads in states which have been traditional strongholds of the Congress. The year 2014 has seen the party and its remaining allies in the UPA lose as many as four states, three of these to the saffron outfit including Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand besides the drubbing that it got in the General Polls. If the Congress does not set things right in the next six months, it could well be game over for India's most celebrate political party.

(3) The supremacy of Kashmir's political dynasty is under threat: Yes you read it right. Many of you might think that I am not making sense. However, let me try to explain what I mean with the help of some numbers. In the 2002 polls, the two national parties - the Congress and the BJP together won 21 seats whereas the two major regional players viz the PDP and the NC bagged more than twice as much - 44. Six years later, the tally of the national parties grew to 28 while the parties based out of the Valley won 49. Surprisingly though, as the results began to trickle this Tuesday, an interesting thing to note was that the two parties had won 37 seats, just six less the combined tally of the PDP and the NC which stood at 43. With the two national outfits make headway in Jammu Kashmir, parties in Kashmir should be worried.

The People's Democratic Party (PDP) managed to edge past the BJP in the race to be the single largest party in the state winning 28 seats. Though it is certain that the outfit will be heading the next regime in Srinagar, the Muftis must be a tad disappointed that they could not win more seats; a tally of 35 would have more or less settled the issue of the formation of the next government. On the other hand though, Omar Abdullah must be happy that the NC prevented a rout, something that the pundits had predicted. Besides, in a hung assembly, Omar could still be the 'King Maker'.

(2) Take a bow BJP: Buoyed with the results of the 2014 General Polls wherein it won three of the six parliamentary seats from Jammu Kashmir, BJP President and Modi's 'Man Friday' Amit Shah set a herculean task before the party cadre here - 'Mission 44+'. While the party could only win 25 seats, it emerged as second largest party in the new Jammu Kashmir assembly, just three seats behind the PDP. So what if all the MLAs hail from Jammu or the fact that it could not make its political debut in Kashmir, with 23 percent of the votes it was the most popular party in the state in spite of the fact that it did not contest all the seats in the Valley. However, it would be extremely difficult for any of the two regional players to join hands with the BJP considering its tough stance on Article 370 and calls for greater autonomy to Kashmir. Even if it does not form the next government here, one thing is clear - the party will end up being the primary Opposition in the state assembly. Thus the BJP is all poised to play a much bigger role in India's only Muslim dominated state.

(1) The Politics of Regions: The northernmost state of the country is geographically and culturally divided into three regions - Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh. For long, the people of Jammu and Ladakh have alleged that they have received step-motherly treatment at the hands of Kashmiri politicians and to a large extent it is true. However, the results of the 2014 polls have shown that opinions and political aspirations of the people of each of these regions is different.

Kashmir which accounts for 46 of the 87 seats in the state assembly did not elect a single BJP candidate. However, the seats here were split between the PDP, the NC, the Congress and others. The Muftis took home over half of the seats from this part of the state, the Abdullahs bagged 13 whereas the rest of the constituencies were won by the INC and others. In Ladakh, the Congress which had narrowly lost to the BJP in the last polls extracted some revenge by winning two of the four seats. In the Jammu region though, it was the BJP which took home the lion share of seats, winning a whopping 25 of the 37 seats, followed by the Congress, the NC and the PDP.

For all posts related to the Jammu Kashmir State Polls 2014, click here (Link)

MAIDAN-e-JUNG - Part III

THE ISSUES

The state of Jammu Kashmir will see elections being conducted to the state assembly in five phases starting from November 25^th to December 20^th considering the volatile political scenario here. Two days before voting begins, it is but clear that the race is between the PDP and the BJP. The Congress and its erstwhile partner - the NC are facing the heat and are unlikely to pose any serious challenge to the above mentioned main contenders. Here is a look at the issues that could decide who will win the upcoming elections in India's northern most state.

After ruling Jammu Kashmir in a coalition for the last six years, the National Conference (NC) and the Congress are facing massive anti-incumbency. As the polls are coming closer, there has been an exodus of high profile names from both these outfits. NC's candidate from Anantnag - Mehboob Baig whose family has had deep ties with the Abdullahs in the past has backed out from his contest against PDP chief Mufti Mohammad Sayeed. Another senior NC leader Sheikh Ghulam Rasool who was instrumental in CM Omar Abdullah's victory from Ganderbal constituency in 2008 too has joined the Muftis. Meanwhile, Ajatshatru Singh - the scion of the erstwhile royal family of Jammu Kashmir has joined the BJP. In a major blow to the NC, former CM and Omar's dad Farooq will not be campaigning for the party as he is unwell. In the Congress camp, two of its biggest leaders - Saifudin Soz and Ghulam Nabi Azad are believed to be reluctant to contest polls. The many corruption scandals that have rocked the Omar regime in its present term and devastation caused by the floods this September have only made the matters worse.

The Armed Forces Special Power's Act (AFSPA) which has been imposed in the state since 1990s is an emotive issue here and there is a growing clamor to do away with it. Over the years, a large section of the populace in Kashmir and several international organizations have slammed the Indian government for using such a draconian law to suppress the voices of the people in the region. The unfortunate death of two youths from Budgam in firing in Chattergam on 3^rd November has reignited the whole debate regarding this Act in spite of the army accepting that the whole incident was a mistake. The two major state parties - the NC as well as the People's Democratic Party (PDP) have always opposed it and are likely to raise this issue in the days to come to gather support while the national outfits see it as a 'necessary evil'. Closely related to the AFSPA is the demand for more autonomy for J&K. Interestingly, the BJP which was vocal in its opposition to Article 370 granting special status to the state during the General Elections has refrained from talking about it.

It is believed that when the fourth Mughal Emperor Jehangir came to the Kashmir valley, he was so enamored by its beauty that he equated it to the heavens. It is such a pity that today, the valley has been infested with Pakistan based terror groups intent on forcefully snatching it from India. Even in the past, infiltrators who do not believe in the democratic process have called for a boycott and a strike on the day of the polls. The separatists too have asked the people to stay away from exercising their right to chose their representatives. It will be a big challenge for our security forces and the Election Commission to make sure that the elections are conducted peacefully and the militants do not succeed in their sinister designs.

Development was the agenda that catapulted Narendra Modi and the BJP to power in 2014 General Polls. After the success in May when it won 3 of the 6 parliamentary seats from the state, the saffron outfit is hopeful that the same issue will strike a chord in the local elections too, thereby helping it achieve 'Mission 44'. Jammu Kashmir is one of the few areas of the country where there is a large scope of improvement as far as infrastructure and employment opportunities are concerned. Terrorism and instability have meant that large corporate houses have stayed away from the state. The PDP too has raked this issue during the course of the campaign.

Lastly, the manner in which three regions of the state viz Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh vote may decide who ends up as the largest party in the state. With 40 odd MLAs being elected from the Valley, this area is the key to the fortunes of the PDP which won all three parliamentary seats from here in May. With the NC facing anti-incumbency, the Muftis are confident of a good showing here. The BJP too is desperate to make in roads in this part. In the last few months, there is a small section of the people who have been vocal in their support to the saffronists. In Jammu, the BJP is in the driver's seat though it faces significant opposiiton from the PDP as well as the Congress. In Ladakh, it is more or less a straight fight between the two main national parties. 

For more posts on the Jammu Kashmir 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)

MAIDAN-e-JUNG - Part I

THE RACE TO BECOME THE SINGLE LARGEST PARTY

Addressing a crowd of party leaders and workers gathered for a function where he was officially anointed as the party president, Amit Shah spoke of yet another ambitious plan - Mission 44. The man who spear headed the BJP's campaign in Uttar Pradesh and was one of the foremost architects of Narendra Modi's big win in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls now wants his party men to work for the formation of the next government in Jammu Kashmir which will see elections later this year. Considering that the saffron outfit has just 11 seats in the outgoing state assembly, it is easy to write off Shah's project as some kind of 'pep' talk to boost the morale of party cadre. However, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) sweeping the two parliamentary seats in Jammu and narrowly edging out the Congress in Ladakh, there are speculations that the saffronists may end up as the single largest party in the next assembly in spite of the fact that the numbers may not be sufficient to form the government. With the Modi wave still pretty strong, the BJP will also bank upon the development plank, the shortcomings of the Omar government and even the goodwill for former PM Vajpayee amongst the Kashmiris to get the votes.

Although there was a lot of debate centered around Article 320 prior to the big polls with many in the party advocating its removal, it will serve the BJP best if the party avoids talking about it considering the sentiments of the people in the state, especially in Kashmir. Besides, it is hopeful that the consolidation of the Hindus votes may further help it in south and east. While there is high probability that the saffron outfit may finish with the highest number of MLAs, it will be interesting to see how many seats it will get and if it can make its debut in the Valley. If the BJP can go past the 40 mark, it will need support of smaller parties and independents to form the government. However, if the saffron outfit gets about 30 to 35 seats then it will have to contemplate joining hands with the Muftis to come to power. Anything below 25 will most likely mean that the BJP would end up as the main opposition in the J&K assembly.

While Shah and his party may be on the threshold of creating history, Kashmir's first political family - the Abdullahs of the National Conference (NC) are yet to recover from the debacle of the 2014 General Elections. Fighting the polls in association with the Congress, the NC drew a blank as all three of its candidates including heavyweights - Farooq Abdullah and Mehboob Beg had to bite the dust. There were lots of expectations from young Omar Abdullah when he took oath as the 11^th Chief Minister of the northern state way back in 2008. Six years down the line, the allegations of graft and lack of development in J&K have made the incumbent CM and his outfit extremely unpopular. In what was clearly seen as a move to put the blame of the Lok Sabha disaster on its former ally, the NC has pulled out of the UPA. Besides, there are reports that all is not well within the outfit and there is a growing section within the party which feels disillusioned by the Abdullahs. For the time being, it seems that the National Conference is heading towards its biggest electoral defeat in recent times; the party will be lucky if it can even win 10 seats.

Much like its former ally, the Congress too is facing the heat here. Former state CM Ghulam Nabi Azad lost to BJP's candidate Dr. Jitendra Singh by a margin of nearly sixty thousand votes in the Udhampur parliamentary seat. In neighboring Jammu, saffron camp's Jugal Kishore Sharma registered a massive win, beating his rival from the INC by over two and a half lakh votes. The grand old party did put up a tough fight in Ladakh; its candidate Tsering Samphel lost by a margin of just 36 votes. The bottom line was clear. Like in the rest of the country, the INC had lost the confidence of the people in Jammu Kashmir too. The problems have only compounded following the divorce with the NC. Although the party will find it very difficult to even come close to its earlier figure of 17 that it got in the last state polls, its 'secular' credentials make it acceptable to both the main regional players in the country. As such, if either the NC or the PDP need some seats to cross the half way mark, the first option that they will explore is an alliance with the INC.

If there is one party that can actually give a tough fight to the BJP in the race to become the single largest party in the state assembly, it has to be the People's Democratic Party (PDP) led by former CM Mufti Mohammed Sayeed. Like the BJP in the rest of the state, the PDP won all three seats in the Kashmir region, beating the threat posed by the NC-INC combine. Now with the two former allies in the UPA parting ways, the chances of Sayeed's outfit has improved further. At the same time, we must remember that with limited presence in the state, winning a majority on its own will be quite an ask for the PDP in spite of the pathetic condition that its main adversaries in the Valley, namely the NC and the Congress find themselves in. The question though is that if need be, will the Muftis be open to an alliance with the BJP - a party which is still seen by many in the Valley as communal and harmful to the interest of Kashmiris. Allying with the Congress will be much easier, that is of course if the INC can get the required numbers. In that scenario, one needs to see if the Congress will be ready to forget Mufti's betrayal of Azad's government way back in 2008.

For more posts on the Jammu Kashmir 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)