A PLAN FOR REVIVAL

A FIVE POINT AGENDA FOR RESURRECTION OF THE CONGRESS

The much hyped Congress Working Committee (CWC) meeting scheduled for today ended on a rather familiar note with 'interim' President Sonia Gandhi agreeing to hang on to the top post for six more months. Sparks began to fly late last evening as 23 prominent Congressmen in a letter addressed to the former NAC Chairperson, raised pertinent questions on the lack of visible leadership within the grand old party. Even as Gandhi sycophants stepped in to defend the INC's first family against this unexpected onslaught, former President Rahul Gandhi decided to take the 'dissenters' head on, and as per ANI sources, accused them of 'colluding with the BJP'. Moments later, former minister Kapil Sibal who was one of the signatories to the letter put out a sarcastic tweet hitting back at the Waynad MP. Another prominent 'dissenter', former External Affairs minister Ghulam Nabi Azad threatened to resign if Rahul could prove his charges. Clearly stung by these attacks, Rahul denied making the remark as loyalists including former PM Manmohan Singh, former Defence Minister A K Anthony et all convinced the aging Sonia to stay on.

Though I am no fan of either the Congress or the Gandhis, it is important that the party somehow puts its house in order as soon as possible. For a vibrant democracy, a robust Opposition that takes on the Government on its policies and stands by it during times of national crisis is an absolute must. The Congress has failed so far, on both these fronts. Somehow, the INC has not yet recovered from the jolt of May 2014 and over the years, the abysmal state of affairs within the outfit only continues to worsen. This has further added to the aura of invincibility surrounding the BJP led by the powerful Modi-Shah duo. Even otherwise, the Congress is the inheritor of a rich legacy, having been one of the many prominent players in the national movement. While it is true that the INC of the freedom struggle is a far cry from the INC of today, we must also acknowledge that it is this organization that gave us some of our greatest founding fathers including Nehru, Patel, Bose and the Mahatma. With no full time leader, almost zero inter-party democracy and an outdated ideology, it is highly unlikely that the INC is going to witness a change in political fortunes anytime soon. Even as India's most successful political party struggles to find panacea for the many problems it faces, here is my five point agenda for a possible Congress revival.

(1) A full time President, preferably Rahul Gandhi: For years now, the Congress' longest serving President Sonia Gandhi has not been keeping well. Considering that the Amethi MP is under medication, it is mind-boggling that she is forced to stay on at the helm of affairs in the INC, in spite of the fact that she has offered to step down on multiple occasions. The logic behind this seems to be the fact that the grand old party needs a Gandhi to run the show smoothly. The family is apparently the glue that holds the many factions within the party together. With Sonia needing a break and Priyanka shifting focus to UP, it is imperative that the party leaders convince the 'reluctant Crown Prince' to take back the reins of the Congress. Will this move succeed? I am not sure; Rahul Gandhi's lack luster report card does not inspire confidence either. However, this move will at least clear the leadership mess and set in a clear hierarchy with the Congress. As and when that happens, the Waynad MP must usher in a set of reforms to empower Youth Congress organizations and promote internal democracy, topics which he has spoken about in the past but which, in pure Rahulesque fashion were not followed up during his first tenure.

(2) A clear Ideology: In what can be described as the most passionate speech in his political career so far, Rahul Gandhi while speaking at the AICC in January 2013 described the Congress as follows: 'Congress Party ek soch hain aur yeah soch hum sabke dil mein hain'. It is time that the young Gandhi scion articulated what this soch (idea) is and what it stands for. For decades, the INC has been seen as a Centrist, pro-Socialist, Secular party though not all of its policies have been in accordance to these lofty ideals. The aggressive pro-Hindutva stance of the BJP and its consecutive victories since 2014 seem to have left a deep impact on the grand old party, forcing it to project itself a much softer Hindutav party. It was in the wake of this that Rahul went temple hoping prior to UP 2017 polls and described himself as a 'Janayu-dhari Shiv Bhakt'. Multiple flip flops, especially on issues of national importance like surgical strikes and the building of the Ram Mandir have given more fodder for the BJP to project its nemesis as weak and rudderless. Even as traditional vote banks including Dalits, women and tribals seem to be gravitating to the saffron outfit, the party is fast losing its ground even in its former strongholds like Maharasthra, Andhra-Telangana and North East. There is an urgent need for the Congress to reflect upon what is the 'idea of India' that it arrogates to itself and claims to be fighting for every now and then. It needs an ideology that a young, inspirational India of the 21st century can connect with.

(3) Promoting Regional Leaders: During the decade since its defeat at the hands of the UPA in 2004, it was state leaders like Narendra Modi, Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh who kept the saffron flag flying in the heartland even as the party faced an existential crisis at the national level. In fact, in what was a tribute to the BJP's culture of nurturing dynamic regional satraps, it was the Gujarat CM who brought it to power at the Center after 10 years of warming the Opposition benches. In sharp contrast, it has been the Congress policy since the days of Indira Gandhi to cut wings of ambitious state chieftains in a bid to enforce the power of the High Command. Nine out of ten Congress CMs are Gandhi loyalists who pose no threat to the power and prestige of the first family. Evidently, this culture has back fired. While the Congress tries to fix the mess in the national leadership, the need of the hour is to take on the BJP at the state level. The appointment of Priyanka Gandhi as the AICC in-charge of eastern UP and the elevation of PAAS leader Hardik Patel in Gujarat and strategist D K Shiv Kumar in Karnataka are steps in the right direction. Incumbent CMs like Captain Amarinder Singh (Punjab), Bhupesh Baghel (Chattisgarh) and Ashok Gehlot (Rajasthan) need to be given full backing of the top brass amd more responsibility in framing the future direction of the INC.

(4) Bridging the Young-Old Divide: For a decade that the UPA was in power, the right mix of dynamic youngsters owing allegiance to Rahul Gandhi and a section of experienced loyalists believed to be close to Sonia was seen as the secret for the success of the Congress. As the old timers grabbed the plum ministries, the youngsters seemed to be contend with donning the hat of MoS. Cut to present and the rebellions of Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot paints a sad picture of a party that is imploding from within thanks to the frictions between the pro-Rahul and pro-Sonia camps. While Sachin was convinced to stay back, the grand old party has already lost some of its most promising young Turks including Scindia Jr., Hemanta Biswas Sarma, Pradyot Manikya Debbarma and Ajoy Kumar. Several other next gen leaders like Milind Deora, Sanjay Nirupam, Navjyot Singh Sidhu and Naveen Jindal are reportedly unhappy with being left out from the scheme of things within the Congress. The INC needs to think how it can manage its demographic divide and reap rich dividends out of it.

(5) Getting more Allies on board: Last but not the least, the INC needs to work towards broadening the UPA by getting more parties on board in its fight against the BJP led NDA. A formal alliance with the Left Front at least in Kerala for the national elections will make sure 20 seats are kept out of reach of the saffron outfit. Similarly, other anti-BJP parites like Mamta Bannerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC), Kejriwal's Aam Admi Party (AAP) and HDK's Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) will only improve its tally. However, for the broadening of UPA, the INC should be ready to make sacrifices; it has already shown that it is ready for this by tying up with the Shiv Sena in Maharasthra and allowing Kumarswamy to become the CM in Karnataka in spite of winning less than 40 seats in the 220 odd strong state legislative assembly. However, more would be needed in the days to come for the Congress to reclaim its long lost pre-eminent position in Indian politics.

FLOP SHOW

ANALYZING INC's DEFEAT IN 2014 LOK SABHA POLLS

Courtesy: NDTV

Earlier this week, the much awaited Anthony Committee submitted its report detailing the causes that led to the Congress' disastrous defeat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. With many leaders in the party questioning Rahul Gandhi and his style of leadership, it was expected that the commission would suggest certain 'tough' decisions to revive the 128 year old party. However, while speaking to the media after submitting his report, the former Defence Minister exonerated Baba of all charges; in fact, the former MP went on to praise the two Gandhis for doing their best during the election campaign. The fears that most of us had was confirmed; instead of finding the multiple issues that plague the grand old party and addressing them, the Gandhis had flatly refused to accept their share of the blame. In a similar move, the mother and son duo had earlier, in the aftermath of the May 16 results, offered mere 'lip service' by offering to resign in the CWC meet, a move that was immediately 'rejected' by their chamchas. It is easy to understand why the former Kerala CM has given a clean chit to the first family. Anthony has always been a loyalist and though he might be in the last leg of his political career, he has no reason to infuriate his bosses. Although he may have his own set of reason for not 'unearthing' the truth, we do not have any such compulsions or obligations towards the dynasty. The following are the reasons that I believe led to the Congress recording its worst showing in the polls held earlier this year.

Leadership Crisis: The prime reason for the debacle of the Congress party in the recently concluded polls was the 'uninspiring and insipid' leadership of Rahul Gandhi. Appointed as the party's vice president at a function in the Talkatora stadium in New Delhi, the Gandhi scion began on a rather impressive note as he unveiled his plans for a grand vamp up of the century old INC. Unfortunately for Rahul and his outfit, this was the only bright spot in a rather lackluster report card so far. Much like his below par performances in the Bihar and Uttar Pradesh state elections, the 'strategy-consultant' managed or should we say 'mis-managed' the campaign that saw the INC register its worst performance in its electoral history. His pet projects including holding primaries to select nominees for parliamentary seats, a move hailed by some as 'far-sighted', proved to complete failures with all candidates selected via this process failing to make the cut. The so-called youth icon's interview to Times Now Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami which exposed his complete disconnect from the issues that matter most to the masses made him the laughing stalk of the nation. Even during the campaign, many senior leaders in the party had complained that the VP was being 'misguided' by a coterie of leaders who are out-of-touch with ground reality. All throughout the campaign, Baba failed to strike a chord with the audiences, an art that his mother has mastered. With Narendra Modi projecting himself as a strong alternative to the passiveness displayed by the UPA, Rahul stood no chance. Forget convincing the rest of the country to vote for the Congress, the Amethi MP's victory margin in his own constiuency was reduced to just over a lakh votes.

Lack of strong regional leaders: Another factor that contributed to the party's embarrassing tally was the fact that it did not have strong state leaders who could get the votes. While the BJP swept most of the states where it was in power, the INC failed to open its mark in as many as 14 states including some big ones like Gujarat, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. In all these states, the saffron outfit had leaders who were empowered to take decisions on their own. On the contrary, lack of powerful state chiefs has been the problem with the Congress ever since the Indira era. The outfit has never promoted strong CMs since the Gandhi family looks upon them as rivals to their power. After the resignation of Ashok Chavan as the CM of Maharashtra following the Adarsh expose, the high command sent its trusted aide Prithviraj Chavan from New Delhi instead of choosing someone like Narayan Rane who had spent much of his career in the state. On similar lines, in spite of leading the INC to a close victory in the 2012 state polls (Link), the party preferred former MP Vijay Bahuguna and then Harish Rawat over the likes of Harak Singh Rawat and Yashpal Arya. And while mentioning this point, how can one forget the treatment meted out to YSRCP chief Jaganmohan Reddy. After the untimely death of former Andhra strongman Y S Rajashekar Reddy, the Gandhis refused to give the CM's post to his son Jaganmohan, fearing that he might become 'bigger' than the party and its top leadership in the southern state. As Reddy junior left the party and launched a new outfit - the YSR Congress Party, he was hounded by the CBI and jailed for 18 months. Without any mass leader and following the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh, the INC was routed as the TDP-BJP combine and the YSRCP shared the spoils.

Corruption: If there was one issue that dominated the election campaign it was corruption. Anna Hazare's indefinite strike at Jantar Mantar in August 2011, the formation of the Kejriwal led Aam Admi Party (AAP) and its victory in the Delhi state assembly gave hope to over a billion Indians that our nation could finally be cured of the cancer that had engulfed it for over six decades. Unfortunately for the Congress, the plethora of scams that rocked the UPA in the latter half of its second term put it on the back foot. The scam in the allocation of Coal blocks at a time when Manmohan Singh was in charge of this ministry tainted the 'clean' image of PM. The 2G allocation scam dubbed by many as the biggest scam in the history of India saw the arrest of former Telecom Minister A Raja as well as DMK chief Karunanidhi's daughter Kanimozhi, further embarrassing the government. The Choppergate scam, the CWG scam, the allegations of graft in the Antrix deal and Railgate, hit the credibility of the UPA regime as well as the INC. At a time when all the parties were hitting at the Congress over its failure to tackle this menace, the party did not make the fight against corruption as one of the main focus points of its campaign. Obviously, after facing so many allegations of graft, there was no way anyone would take the party's resolve to get the country rid of this menace seriously. Probably, after the elevation of Modi as the BJP's PM candidate, the INC thought that 'Secularism' and its co-called 'Idea of India' would help it brush aside all charges of corruption and help it win a consecutive third term. This proved to be a miscalculation as the results suggest.

Wrong Allies: Another factor that led to the INC do badly in the polls was the fact that it did not have the right partners on its side. Mamata Bannerjee walked out of the UPA over the issue of price rise. Had the Congress leadership been able to placate her, the two parties would have easily bagged nearly 35-40 seats in Bengal. Months before the elections, its southern ally - the DMK walked out of the UPA over the government's soft stand towards Sri Lanka. While the BJP was joining hands with many outfits all across the country, the INC was left with just four major partners - the NCP, the National Conference in Kashmir, the RLD in Western UP and the RJD in Bihar. Much like the INC, even its allies were facing the heat ahead of the General elections. Moreover, in spite of the bifurcation of Andhra, KCR refused to merge his outfit into the INC. In three key southern states - Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Andhra, the Congress was entering the battlefield without any strong partner on its side. There were reports that the party leadership was in talks with 'like-minded' parties like the Jaganmohan Reddy's YSRCP, Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF, Nitish Kumar's JD-U and Mayawati's BSP to forge pre-poll alliances. However, unfortunately for the Congress, none of these materialized. While the INC got 44 seats, its allies fared even worse - the NC and the RLD failed to open their accounts, Pawar's NCP was reduced to six seats whereas Lalu's comeback was all hype and no substance. Actually, the other allies of the BJP in the NDA put together got more seats than the INC in 2014.

Communication: The troika of the Gandhis and Manmohan Singh that had taken the UPA to a victory in 2009 failed to communicate with the people in the last five years. Former PM Singh was never known to be an effective orator. However, he had managed to send a strong signal to the electorate by taking the onus of passing the Indo-US Nuclear deal on himself. In the second term though, he repeatedly came under attacks of the the media for failing to take on corruption head on. He hardly addressed any press conference and failed to convey his views to the masses. Equally to blame is vice president Rahul Gandhi. The younger scion of the party's first family who is known to be a reluctant politician has to take his share of blame too. When the entire country was discussing issues like price rise, corruption and women's empowerment, Baba never felt the need to speak to the media. Of course, he did tear the cabinet resolution giving relief to convicted parliamentarians at a pres conference early this year but this was a clear case of too little too late. This apart from the fact that his actions had undermined the stature of the PM. To add to the INC's woes, its biggest vote catcher - party president Sonia Gandhi's ill health prevented her from campaigning actively. On the contrary, the BJP's electoral strategy was more focused. Narendra Modi used his twitter handle to connect with the people and address his views on issues, both big and small. Obviously, while the BJP created history by going past the 272 mark, the INC could not even finish with one sixth of that tally.

IMAGES 

(1) Courtesy: NDTV
Original: Sonia and Rahul Gandhi may offer resignations after Congress rout: Sources (Link)

MODI IN BHUTAN

THE AGENDA ON THE PM's MAIDEN FOREIGN VISIT

Courtesy: Crossed Flags Pins

While there has been much talk regarding the myriad failures of the UPA on the economic front, what many of us seem to have forgotten is that the Manmohan regime also left the country's foreign affairs in a complete mess. With the new government being sworn in, one of the major challenges before Narendra Modi and the Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj is how to improve the nation's relations with the rest of the world. An excellent step in this direction, a master stroke of sorts came in the form of the invitation that the PM sent out to the leaders of the SAARC countries to attend his swearing in, re-iterating his government's stand of maintaining peace in the entire South Asian region. With either the premiers or the representatives of all our neighboring nations descending on New Delhi to witness Modi take power, the whole episode was hailed as the BJP's regime first major accomplishment. As the former Gujarat CM settled in his new job, one of the questions doing the rounds was which country would he choose for his first official foreign trip.

There was a significant section of observers who felt that it would be logical for the new PM to return the favor and send a strong signal by visiting Islamabad. After all, his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif had defied the all powerful Pakistani army, the Islamists and other right wing elements within the establishment to come to India. However, considering his aggressive stance on Pakistan and the BJP's criticism of the previous government's 'soft approach' towards our western neighbor, a visit to Pakistan, that too at such an early stage of his tenure was ruled out. Another possible choice before Modi was China; even the incumbent Chinese President Xi Jinping's first foreign visit was to New Delhi. Of course, he did travel to Pakistan next, a trip which he could have definitely avoided. Anyway, with border dispute far from being settled and the two nations competing with each other in the race become the next big super power, the visit could have laid the agenda for future talks between the Asian giants. Japan was another country which some thought would have the pleasure of hosting the new Indian PM considering his admiration for the island nation and the progress it has made in the later half of the twentieth century. Old ally Russia and even the USA which has revoked all visa restrictions on Modi which was imposed following the Gujarat riots were also believed to be in the 'reckoning' to be the first nations to welcome him. However, as the 'honor' ultimately went to the tiny Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan, many were perplexed if Narendra Bhai had lost the opportunity to strike a deal with one of these 'big' players at the onset of his tenure.

Now, the relations between India and the tiny Himalayan kingdom stretch back to 1949 when the two neighbors signed a bilateral agreement in 1949. In fact, ties improved further as a part of our 'Himalayan frontier' policy following the Chinese invasion of Tibet and the Sino-Indian war of 1962. Over the years, New Delhi and Thimpu moved closer with the former playing a key role in the latter's external affairs. In fact, as the Indian army entered and liberated the erstwhile 'East Pakistan', Bhutan was the second country after India to officially recognize Bangladesh. Besides, we have for long been Thimpu's biggest trading partner and have invested heavily in its infrastructural development. Of course, the Himalayan neighbors have reciprocated too. In 2003, the Royal Bhutanese Army completely flushed the ULFA militants from its territories in an operation led by the Crown Prince himself. Nearly four years later, the two nations renegotiated a new treaty, replacing the one signed in 1949 which reduced our influence on Bhutan's foreign affairs, besides curbing our control over its arms imports.

While Thimpu has probably been our closest ally, there have been instances where there has been some friction between the two nations like in 1979 when we took contrasting positions over the membership of Khmer Cambodia in the Non-Alignment Movement (NAM). However, the thaw in the relations between Thimpu and New Delhi in July last year did threaten to break this six decade old friendship. Nearly an year ago as the small South Asian country went tot the polls, the Manmohan Singh government decided to discontinue the subsidiary on LPG cylinders and kerosene provided by the Indian government till then. It was believed that the move which was taken during the middle of the elections was a kind of protest against the incumbent PM Jigme Thinley's 'over-ambitious' policy of reaching over to the world without consulting India. Besides, the officials in the South Block were said to be displeased with the slow pace of work on infra projects being implemented by India assistance. As India refused to renew the pact, the rising prices hit the common Bhutanese on the streets. What came in as a surprise move though was China's offer to Bhutan to supply these essential commodities at reasonable rates. With India on the back foot, the Singh government finally decided to wake up from its deep slumber and agreed to continue with its earlier policy in what was a decision taken to keep the Chinese away from wooing our 'buddies'.

In the backdrop of this avoidable controversy on the part of our government, PM Modi's visit to Thimpu is highly significant. While we have had critical differences with Pakistan and China, a major cause of concern is that a lot of smaller players in the Sub-continent including Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and even Nepal are increasingly unhappy with us, accusing us of 'big-brotherly' treatment. Now, this is certainly not good news for us. What is a bigger cause of worry for us is that the Chinese seem to be making the best of the situation by increasing their influence in our own backyard. Beijing has tipped India to become the biggest foreign investor in Nepal, a move that has set alarm bells ringing in the South Block. China's ambitious 'String of Pearls' which includes building ports in our neighboring has been a big cause of worry for India's defense as it can be used effectively against our navy during the times of war. The cancellation of GMR's airport contract by the Mauritian government seem to have been influenced by the Chinese authorities. Beijing's interest in opening an embassy in Thimpu shows its eagerness to bury all differences with the Himalayn country. As such, it is but imperative for us to assert our position and improve our ties with our neighbors even if it means taking on the Chinese 'diplomatic' threat head on. Considering that we have had historic and deep cultural ties with nations in South Asia, it should not been hard to correct some of our past mistakes.

Besides, we do have our own personal interests in Bhutan that we need to safeguard. India has been the major trading partner, accounting for nearly 98 percent of Bhutan's total exports. We have helped Bhutan in construction of innumerable roads and dams. Considering this, PM Modi's move will for sure be a positive step. By visiting Thimpu, he has sent a strong message that to our friends across the border that we treasure our friendship, that for us, Bhutan is not not another other ally; in fact, for us, it an important and trustworthy friend. Hopefully, in the coming days, the ties between the south Asian neighbors will improve further and help both nations in the long run.

SOURCES

(1) Courtesy: Crossed Flags Pins (Link)

AND THE LOSING CAPTAIN IS...

VETERAN KHARGE MADE THE LEADER OF THE CONGRESS

Courtesy: Post Jagran

Apart from the Modi wave that swept the country taking the saffron outfit beyond the halfway mark, the 2014 General Elections will also be remembered for decimation of India's grand old party. Never in its 126 year long history had the Congress party recorded such a dismal performance in the Lok Sabha polls. While we can write a 1000 page book on why the INC failed to even win one tenth of the total seats in the Lower House of the Parliament - a pre-requisite to be termed as the 'principal opposition', a large part of the blame should fall on the (not-so)young and (un)able shoulders of the Vice President Rahul Gandhi. After all, was he not the one who led the party in a campaign which saw it record its worst ever showing and basically handed the victory to the BJP and Narendra Modi on a platter? While the junior Gandhi and his mummy Sonia did offer to resign at the recently held party convention, it was, as Times Now Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami put it, mere 'lip-service'. As the focus shifted from the election debacle to devising a strategy to resurrect the party ahead of the state polls scheduled later this year, many top guns including Digvijay Singh and Shashi Tharoor believed that it would be 'logical' for Rahul to head the 44 elected members of the Congress in the Lok Sabha. I mean, to be frank, I am pretty sure many of us would feel the same. However, it seems that the INC chief had other plans. In what is seen by some as an attempt by the party chief to shield her son from the attacks of a 'much stronger and a confident BJP' or as others feel, another occasion where Baba has refused to take 'responsibility', veteran Karnataka leader and former Railway Minister Mallikarjun Kharge has been appointed as the leader of the Congress party in the Lower House.

From the Congress' point of view, there are 'reasons' behind the move. The official party line has been that the top priority for the MP from Amethi now is to resurrect the party. The rout in the elections has been rude shock and has completely exposed the organizational mess that the party finds itself in as of today. While anti-incumbency has played a huge part in the poll debacle, there are other areas of concern too - the lack of strong state leaders who can get the votes, the inability to stitch alliances with key regional partners and the most importantly - the lack of internal democracy. Rahul has been quite vociferous about the need to revamp the Congress in his rather limited interaction with the media over the last five years, things like internal primaries before candidate selection (a move that proved to be a complete failure in the Lok Sabha elections), increasing the representation of women, empowering the Youth Congress et all. As such, the High Command - the Congress equivalent of the Communist 'Politburo' believes that there are important issues to be settled than warming the Opposition benches. This is true especially with the elections in Maharashtra and Haryana - two INC ruled states which the BJP and its allies literally swept, just around the corner. Another cause of concern for the INC would be that Rahul does not have any experience to take up this tough job. In fact, in the last Lok Sabha, the Vice President's attendance has been mere 42 percent; you see if Baba was a BE student, he would not have been able to answer the semester exams. With reports indicating that Rahul himself was not too keen to take up the job, the names doing the rounds were that of former Union ministers - Kamal Nath and Veerappa Moily. However, the appointment of Kharge as the head of the Congress parliamentary board did come in as a surprise.

While the Congress leaders may go to great lengths defending this decision, it is easy to see what why this is another mistake that the INC has done in the last few months. One of the reasons that Modi held the upper hand over Rahul during the course of the elections was that while the former had served and delivered as the Chief Minister of Gujarat, the latter was seen as a 'reluctant politician who never took any post'. In the decade that the UPA was in power, the Amethi MP was never a part of the government, he did not speak on subjects like corruption and women's safety when they shook the conscience of the nation or never articulated his views on important issues either in the Parliament or in the media. Of course, loyalists would spring to his defence; they will recall that 'infamous' news conference where the younger Gandhi literally forced the government to scrap that Ordinance to protect convicted MPs, a decision which was taken earlier in an all-party meeting headed by the Prime Minister (Link) or his fiery speech in the Talkatora stadium after his anointment as the chief of his party's election campaign where he vetoed the UPA regime to increase the cap on subsidized LPG cylinders for domestic use from 9 to 12. However, such 'symbolic' gestures are definitely not enough. That disastrous interview to Arnab where he talked only about RTI and women's empowerment was for many, one of the key turning points of the 2014 General Elections. For a voter like me, it was proof that Rahul had still a long way to go before he could even be 'considered', yes you read it right, 'considered' to be the PM of the world's largest democracy. As the head of the Congress, the 43 year old would have got crucial first hand experience that would come in handy in the future. The post would be an ideal platform for him to understand politics better, build a rapport with leaders across party lines and most importantly, help him in placing his point of view before the masses. As a matter of fact, several ex-Prime Ministers including Vajpayee, Narasimha Rao and even Rajeev Gandhi had served as the Leader of the Opposition and there is no reason as to why the junior Gandhi should not have done the same.

It makes sense for us to sit back and ponder as to what kind of message has the Congress sent to both, its workers and the people of the country by taking this decision. Lets suppose, the UPA had done the impossible, what I mean to say is the hypothetical situation wherein the UPA would have come to power for a third consecutive term. There was no question whatsoever as to who would become the PM of the country. The standard party line would be that since Rahul led the party's campaign, it would be 'natural' for him to take up the top job too. Now that the outfit has done miserably and considering the same argument, it is logical that Rahul should lead his party men in the Parliament as they shift from the treasury to the opposition benches. A good captain never abandons his ship, rather prefers going down with it. By refusing to head the Congress now, the Amethi MP has in some way, refused to own his share of responsibility. The effect that this move can potentially have on the cadre could be deadly. I mean who would like to work for an organization where the management takes the credit for all success but refuses to acknowledge its role in defeat. Certainly not me. I believe that thousands of Congress workers who worked for the party during the polls would be shattered by this development. Of course, there are many who still swear by the first family, the ones who feel they can do no wrong. However, the India of 2014 is certainly not the India of the 1970s and Rahul does not have the charisma that say, his grand mother had. While he may come across as a 'nice guy', there is no doubt that the move has not gone well with a lot of people. At a time when questions are being raised about his style of leadership, the least that he could have done is head the Congress legislative party at least for the time being and then take up some tough decisions to rejuvenate the party. May be, a few months down the line, he could have actually moved out.

Lastly, the move to appoint Kharge shows that the INC has certainly not learnt its lessons. With the likes of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi in the Parliament, will the Gulbarga MP be able to take decisions on his own? Come on. Manmohan Singh served as the PM for two consecutive terms but it is an 'open secret' that it was the UPA chairperson who called the shots during UPA I. In UPA II, the situation 'deteriorated' further with Rahul embarrassing the government on numerous occasions. In fact, it was evident that there was a certain amount of friction between the PM and the Congress VP and both were not on the same wavelength on several issues. Rahul did not even attend the farewell dinner for the outgoing PM hosted by his mother just a few days before the results were announced. Kharge's appointment has given scope for a similar situation to arise in the future. With Sonia Gandhi not keeping well, there could potentially be two power centers in the party in the Lok Sabha. While the former Union minister will take on the Modi government in the Parliament, Rahul will still command respect. After all, in the INC your abilities do not matter, as long as you belong to the Nehru-Gandhi parivar. As such, you should not be surprised if the two have serious differences of opinion on several matters. Besides, the decision has given ammunition to a stronger, more vibrant BJP to take pot shots at its nemesis. But by refusing to head the Congress party rightly, Rahul has certainly missed the first opportunity to set the things right in his party and may have contributed in weakening it further.

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Post Jagran
Source: Union Minister Mallikarjun Kharge open to become Karnataka CM (Link)

PUNJAB & LOK SABHA 2014

THE BATTLE FOR PUNJAB

One of the states that will see a close contest between the two major coalitions in the country is the Land of Five Rivers - Punjab. If you see the electoral history in the last few years you will be surprised by the way, people here have voted. In 2009, the projection of Manmohan Singh as the party's PM candidate worked here as the INC grabbed an astounding 8 of the 13 seats. Three years down the line though as Punjab went to the state polls (Link), the tables were turned upside down (Link). The Akali-BJP combine created history as it beat anti-incumbency to return back to power in spite of doing badly in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Ahead of the upcoming General Elections, there are mixed signals coming out of the state. While there is support for Modi, the anti-incumbency against state regime too is pretty strong. That is precisely the reason that I believe this state is going to see a keenly fought battle.

ISSUES

(1) A tale of two anti-incumbencies: The people of Punjab have to choose between two evils in this elections, having seen the 'failures' of both, the UPA and the NDA governments in their successive terms at the Centre and the state respectively. The one thing that the Congress led coalition regime in New Delhi will be known for are the myriad scams that have come to light in the last three years, each of it running into hundreds of crores of rupees. Besides, the Singh government's 'mis-handling' of the economy has dented the 'India Growth Story'. Moreover, price-rise and high inflation have taken their toll on the common man.

Unfortunately for the NDA, simmering anti-incumbency against its state regime is likely to dent its prospects in 2014. In fact, some analysts believe that this is precisely the reason that Punjab may go in favor of the UPA this time around. No substantial development has happened under the Badals, the infrastructure continues to remain poor whereas the debt to the state exchequer has touched new heights. Another problem is the drug trade which is threatening to destroy a complete generation of Punjabi youth. Also, the Dera Saccha Sauda which has a large following in some parts of the state is likely to support the Congress too due to its differences with the Akalis.

(2) 1984 Anti-Sikh riots: This is one weapon in their arsenal that the SAD-BJP will use to counter the charge of the Congress against its state government. Ever since the elevation of Narendra Modi to the post of BJP's PM nominee, the INC had tried to rake up the issue of 'Secularism', claiming that the 2014 election are a fight to protect the plurality of the country. However, Punjab is one place where this move could possibly backfire. In an interview to Times Now Editor-in-chief Arnab Goswami, Rahul Gandhi accepted that some of his party men could have played a role in the massacre of Sikhs following the assassination of Indira Gandhi. Moreover, the allegations of Margaret Thatcer regime's involvement in the controversial 'Operation Bluestar' has re-ignited the whole debate and has put the grand old party on the defensive.

CONTENDERS

(1) National Democratic Alliance (NDA): Leading the NDA's charge here is the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) led by the octogenarian CM Prakash Singh Badal. One of the steady fast ally of the BJP, the regional party fared rather badly in the last Union polls. However, it did win a spectacular victory in the assembly polls where its tally grew by 10 odd seats. In fact, the party came within striking distance of crossing the half way mark on its own. However, anti-incumbency against the state government is a big factor in the elections and that is hurting the prospects of the BJP led alliance. According to the pre-poll accord with the saffron outfit, the party has put up ten candidates including Sukbir's wife Harsimrat Kaur Badal (Bathinda), incumbent - Paramjit Kaur Gulshan (Faridkot), Deepinder Singh Dhillon (Patiala) and Pawan Tinu (Jalandhar).

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is banking on the Modi wave to see it through in the three seats it is contesting in alliance with the Akalis. What should worry the BJP, apart from anti-incumbency is the fact that in 2012 the party dropped 7 seats even as the SAD's tally went northwards. Remember, in 2007 state polls, the party had won 19 out of the 23 seats it contested and helped the Badals return to power after a five year hiatus. The BJP's candidates are Leader of Opposition in the present Lok Sabha - Arun Jaitley (Amritsar) and actor Vinod Khanna (Gurudaspur) who had lost elections last time.

(2) Congress: While it did exceedingly well in 2009, the grand old party is fighting a tough battle to even come close to its previous tally. Nonetheless, it did score a small victory when it managed to get Akali rebel Manpreet Badal of the People's Party of Punjab (PPP) to contest as a Congress candidate. Aware of the Central regime's shortcomings, the party is concentrating on the anti-incumbency against the state government to do well. Congress heavyweights include former CM Amarinder Singh (Amritsar), former Union Minister Ambika Soni (Anandpur Sahib), incumbent MPs Vijay Inder Singla (Sangrur), Mohinder Singh Kaypee (Hoshiarpur) and in true Congress tradition also offered a ticket to Parneet Kaur - the wife of Captain from Patiala.

Others: The Aam Admi Party (AAP) too is making its maiden entry into electoral fray from here. It has given a tickets to prominent Punjabis including comedian Bhagwant Mann (Sangrur) who was earlier with the PPP, artist Jasraj Singh Longia (Bathinda), cardiologist Dr. Dharamvira Gandhi (Patiala) and eye surgeon Dr. Daljit Singh (Amritsar).

PAST PERFORMANCES

In 2009, if there was a state in which Manmohan Singh's magic worked, it was in his home state where the Congress beat the NDA 8-5. Five years ago, it was the SAD-BJP combine that had swept Punjab, finishing with a tally of 11. However, in 1999, the state stood with the INC even as the nation voted the saffron outfit to power. In 1998 and 1996 though, the Akalis were the dominant force, bagging eight seats each time.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
NDA (SAD+BJP)	5 (4+1)	11 (8+3)	3 (2+1)	11 (8+3)	8 (8+0)
Congress	8	2	8	-	2
Others (BSP/SAD-M/CPI)	-	-	2	2	3

MY PREDICTIONS

I expect the battle for Punjab to be a close race. The anti-incumbency against the Akali regime in the state is hitting the SAD whereas the Congress is also facing the heat for its failure to do well at the Centre.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	NDA (SAD+BJP)	6-8
2	Congress	5-6

WATCH OUT

(1) The Battle for Amritsar: BJP's Navjot Singh Sidhu won the Amritsar parliamentary seat here in 2004 and 2009. This time around, the BJP has fielded one of its heavyweights - Arun Jaitley from here. Although he has been in politics for nearly four decades now, this is the first time that the senior leader will be fighting elections. It is believed that the INC has fielded former state CM Captain Amarinder Singh at the behest of Sonia Gandhi. This is one of the most high profile contest in the 2014 General Elections.

(2) Badal versus Badal: The city of Bhatinda is going to see another tough fight between two members of Punjab's first political family. After breaking away from the Akali Dal and forming the People's Party of Punjab in March 2011, the former Punjab Finance Minister Manpreet Badal drew a blank winning no seat in the state elections held the very next year. However, this time around, he has entered the electoral fray as a Congress candidate from Bhatinda. Standing against him is Harsimrat Kaur Badal, the daughter-in-law of incumbent CM Parkash Singh Badal who had won from here in 2009 by a margin of over 1 lakh votes. This is one fight to watch out for.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

RIOTS IN UP AND ELECTIONS 2014 - Part II

HOW THE RIOTS IN WESTERN UP WILL AFFECT THE FORTUNES OF PARTIES

Catch 22 situation: Yes, that is precisely the situation that Congress finds itself in Uttar Pradesh. In 2009, following Varun Gandhi's communal speech in his constituency of Pilhibhit, the Congress surpassed all expectations winning 21 seats after minority votes swung in its favor. Back then, it was heralded as the revival of the grand old party in the country's most populous state with party leaders

Rahul meeting a Jat delegation in Delhi

and workers crediting Rahul Baba for the miracle. Putting behind the disaster in Bihar in 2010, the INC, buoyed by its performance in the national polls, made its crown prince the face of its campaign here in 2012. Probably, confident of a good show following the hype around him in the media, Rahul Gandhi even tore the manifesto of the Samajwadi Party during a rally. However, it was Akhilesh and his outfit which walked away with the crown as the INC struggled to reach a paltry figure of 28. Though the Nehru-Gandhi bastions may be safe for the time being, there is absolutely no indication that the Congress may do well in 2014 polls in UP. As far as the western areas of the state are concerned, the conviction of its face in this region - Rasheed Masood for fraudulently nominating candidates during his tenure as the Union Health minister in 1990 is a big blow. The minority leader had quit the SP to join the INC in 2011 after a fall out with Azam Khan. The Congress' hopes of doing well here by allying with Ajit Singh's RLD too has been hit following the riots. As such, some in the party believe that they may do well if they discontinue the alliance with Singh and go all alone. What is adding to its woes is the fact that Jats seem to be shifting towards the BJP after it projected Modi as its PM candidate. The visit of the PM Dr Singh, the UPA Chairperson Mrs Gandhi and her son Rahul to relief camps to 'assess' the situation is nothing but a publicity stunt, with an eye on the national elections. Meanwhile, in a bid to attract minority votes into its fold, Congress leader Rashid Alvi has criticized the SP government of failing to protect the Muslims and calling the riots here, worse than the ones in Gujarat. Reservation for the Jat community, something that they are demanding for some time now, will tilt the balance in its favor.

The right platform: For a party that rose on to national politics following the demolition of the Babri Masjid in 1992, it is surprising that the BJP is in dire straits in its former bastion. Even in 2012, its performance under Hindutva icon Uma Bharati has been disappointing. However, on the eve of the

BJP President Rajnath Singh with Modi

General Elections, things seem to be finally going the saffron outfit's way. The nomination of tainted leader Narendra Modi as its PM nominee has galvanized the cadre. Aware that UP will be the key if he wants to occupy the top post, Modi has deputed his trusted aide - Amit Shah who has been accused of his role in the infamous Godhra riots in 2002, to manage his campaign in the state. In what was a clear case of raising the communal agenda, Shah paid a visit to the Ram Janmabhoomi site in Ayodhya, reiterating his party's stand to construct a Ram temple there. The crackdown by the SP government on the Ayodhya Yatra organized by the VHP, a constituent of the Sangh Parivar has been criticized by the party's top leadership. And a few months later, the riots in Muzaffarnagar has given another opportunity to the party to win votes. Although the state government has slapped cases against two of its MLAs - Suresh Rana and Sangeet Som under the stringent National Security Act (NSA) for whipping up communal flares, the party has in fact, felicitated them. If reports coming from the region are to be believed, the Jats are moving towards the BJP, impressed by the charisma of its leader, Mr Modi. Such a shift will be a major boost to the party. For the Gujarat CM who his known for his brash style of politics, the communal violence in Muzaffarnagar may propel him to New Delhi, similar to the incidents in Godhra back in 2002, which made him the most popular leader in Gujarat.

The sleeping giant: In 2007, Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) supremo beat all odds to script a fairy tale victory by crossing the half way mark on its own, courtesy 'Social Engineering'. However, after completing her five year term, which was marked by brazen corruption and shameless self

BSP supremo Mayawati

glorification, Behenji was routed by her bete noire - SP's Mulayum Singh in the next state polls. The sly vixen that she is, Mayawati kept a low profile following the electoral drubbing. Like a python waiting for the prey to walk into the trap, she waited all along for the young Akhilesh to falter. With the SP government failing to deliver on all fronts in the last two years, the BSP will try to maximize its poll prospects by attacking the regime for its failure to control the riots. With the SP and the BSP being the two main political parties in the state, the mistakes made by one generally helps the other. As such, it should not be surprising if Mayawati finishes first in the four way contest for Uttar Pradesh during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The BSP leader has always nurtured prime ministerial ambitions; you can expect her to go all out against the Yadav regime in the coming months. Another weapon that Mayawati has in her arsenal is, as mentioned earlier - Social Engineering. Like in 2007 when she romped home to power after weaving together the Dalit-Brahmin alliance, Maya may do exceedingly well in western UP if she can chose the right candidates.

For the previous post on this topic, click here (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Rahul meeting a Jat delegation in Delhi

Source: Indian National Congress - Official Website (Link)

(2) BJP President with Modi

Source: BJP - Official Website (Link)

(3) BSP supremo Mayawati
Source: The Hindu - Mayawati sees SP-BJP conspiracy (Link)

THE FALL OF THE TRIUMVIRATE

CAN MANMOHAN SINGH SURVIVE THE RAGA ASSAULT?

Source: NDTV

In May 2004, as the UPA romped home to a surprise victory by decimating the NDA, Sonia Gandhi - the real architect of this spectacular win refused to accept the PM's post, citing her 'inner voice'. Inspite of repeated attempts to convince her by party colleagues and alliance partners, she refused to budge and hand picked an old time loyalist - Rajya Sabha MP & former Finance Minister Manmohan Singh for the top job. One of the country's best economist, Singh had presented the 1991 budget which opened our economy to foreign brands which is one of the reasons that we are the second fastest growing economy in the world today. Sonia's position was given legitimacy by appointing her as the chief of the National Advisory Council - an institute constituted by the UPA to advise the cabinet on issues concerning the Aam Aadmi. In 2006 the heir apparent Rahul Gandhi was brought into the spot light; back then, he spoke about bringing democracy in a dynasty-based party and reviving its fortunes in states like UP and Bihar. Though the Opposition accused Sonia of remote controlling the government and preparing the ground for Baba to take over, the arrangement worked well for the Congress as it managed to complete its full term despite of regular 'black-mailing' by the Left parties. Like the successful yet controversial Triumvirate of the Roman Republic - an alliance between the great general Pompey, the super rich Cranius and the master politician Julius Caesar to tide over the crisis facing them about two millennia ago, the trioka of Sonia, Singh and Rahul led the UPA to a second consecutive win, even bettering their previous record by a good margin in the 2009 Lok Sabha.

In the period between 2004 to 2010, this was the most dominant force in Indian politics. After publicly renouncing the PM's chair and taking the moral high ground on various issues, Sonia Gandhi's stature grew exponentially, making her, arguably the most popular neta in our country. Manmohan's strong stand on the Indo-US nuclear deal and his 'Mr. Clean' image won his the admiration of the masses, making him the first PM after Nehru to win successive terms. The young and energetic Rahul Baba brought about new ideas; he promised to revamp the party structure and introduce certain measures to revitalize it. His entry into active politics was heralded by Congressmen as a new era in our Rajneeti. Sadly for the three, things started going downhill after the UPA in its second innings was rocked by a series of corruption scandals, some of which like the 2G and Coalgate scams completely tarnished the PM's image. Considering that Mrs. Gandhi still is her party's biggest vote catcher, her health concerns is another big blow. Though she has regularly defended the government in the Lower House, it seems that her health will not permit her to devote much time for political campaigning in the coming years. And Rahul Gandhi has, to a large extent, become a big liability for the Congress. On numerous occasions like the recently concluded Uttar Pradesh elections where he tore the Samajwadi manifesto while addressing an election rally, his words and antics have become a 'hot potato' for the Congress and its supporters. Faced with a formidable challenge posed by a resurgent BJP led by the Gujarat CM Narendra Modi, the top brass of the UPA is feeling the heat. While reports suggesting differences between the Gandhis and Singh have been doing the rounds for some time, the latter tried to prove otherwise by claiming that he would be happy to work under Rahul. However, the junior Gandhi's scathing attack on the Manmohan cabinet for taking the ordinance route to over rule a SC judgement regarding the disqualification of convicted politicians has, perhaps signaled the end of this partnership.

For PM Singh, this brazen attack, especially the strong language used by Rahul in the press conference, could not have come at a worst time. Facing a credibility crisis, the UPA II is surviving on the blessings of the Samajwadi supremo Mulayum Singh Yadav. While Manmohan has been open of his wholehearted support to the candidature of the heir apparent in case a third Congress led regime comes to power, the harsh criticism from the party VP, at a time when he was on an official tour of the US, has for sure, deeply hurt him. As if the crown prince's wrath was not enough, the manner in which both, his party men and cabinet colleagues came out in open support of Baba has completed isolated him. While the party was consulted prior to issuing the ordinance, the perception that has come out now is that it was the PM who wanted to suppress the SC judgement. With the public opinion being strongly in favour of the ruling, his popularity will take a severe beating in the coming days. Though he tried to play down the incident, hailing it as just another part of our democracy where differences of opinion is normal, it is a death blow to the political career of the third longest surviving PM in our history. Instead of helping him and his government put up a formidable fight against Modi, Rahul's washing of dirty linen in public will only give more ammunition to the Opposition camp. The government is in a catch 22 situation now. Not withdrawing the ordinance will be seen as defying the Gandhis, whose every word is nothing less than holy gospel in the INC. On the other hand, considering that many of the existing and prospective allies want him to save their convicted leaders from disqualification, scrapping of the ordinance is easier said than done. While Manmohan Singh has been clear that this will be his last term in the office, this fiasco has only confirmed his retirement sooner than expected.

Many believe that this episode might be an attempt by the junior Gandhi and his party to steal the thunder out of BJP's 'relentless' campaign against the ordinance. Though, the saffron outfit is said to have been with the government during the all party meeting to discuss the future course of action following the SC's verdict, the principal opposition took an aggressive stand, probably after seeing that the mood on the streets was against the ordinance. Apart from lashing out at the government, a delegation of BJP leaders went to meet the President, asking him to reject the ordinance when it would be sent to him for his consent. Forget the BJP, it would not be surprising for a strong President like Pranad Mukherjee to reject the ordinance. This would certainly be an embarrassment for the ruling regime. Meanwhile, at first, the Congress tried to vociferously defend the decision, accusing the Opposition of going back on its word for political gains. Realizing that mood in the country was heavily inclined towards the historic verdict, it seems that Rahul's public outburst was to take all attention away from the BJP's anti-ordinance stance. However, the main question is - What was the so-called 'PM-in-waiting' doing so long? Was he not consulted when the Congress was deliberating on the issue or is the Rahul vs Manmohan war just a drama by their party to do damage control and enhance the former's stature? You never know...

The public outburst might just be another of Baba's innumerable attempts to re-invent himself in national politics and strike a chord with the masses. In 2009, while talking about the plight of farmers in the country, the young Gandhi scion had spoken about Kalavati - a widow from the drought prone Vidarbha region of Maharashtra who came to symbolize the sorry plight of our agarian community. While the INC has been in power for all this long in New Delhi and in Mumbai, Kalavati's condition has only worsened; one of her daughter and a son-in-law have also committed suicide due to the unending cycle of poverty. In the following year, he was given the charge of the party in Bihar, a state wherein his party had been reduced to single digits in the last election. Unfortunately, the Congress was routed again; losing nearly 50% of the seats to end on a final tally of four. In 2012, Rahul took up the cause of people protesting against the then Mayawati government's forceful acquisition of land in the Bhatta Parsaul village in UP. On a visit there, following reports of violence, he accused the administration of killing innocent villagers, burning their bodies and raping their women. However, these claims were never proven, leaving the leader and his party men red-faced. The disaster in the UP polls, especially at a time when another young leader - Akilesh Yadav managed to take the Samajwadi Party well above the half way mark was, yet another chapter in the long list of RaGa's debacles. The problem with Gandhi seems to be that he still hasn't made up his mind on what his role will be in the coming months. He is still reluctant to take that plunge into 'active' politics, he rarely speaks to the media and his views on several issues are unclear. Besides, he lacks the vision of Nehru, the leadership qualities of Indira and the decision-making ability of his uncle Sanjay. Rahul Gandhi has to realize that he has to do a lot more than simply criticizing the government if he has to tackle the NaMo bandwagon. Taking a cue from his mother, he has to find ways of connecting with the people - a trait that the premiere dynasty of our politics has always been known for, so as to help the Congress do well in 2014.

For more on the 2014 General Elections
(1) The Double Edged Sword (Link)
(2) Reading Between the Lines (Link)
(3) An Ally in Need is an Ally Indeed (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Original: Rahul Gandhi leads Congress' charge at mega rally; backs Government on reforms
Source: NDTV (Link)

AN ALLY IN NEED IS AN ALLY INDEED

THE RACE FOR 2014 IS ON

Courtesy: Top News

As the Indian National Congress (INC) think tank went into a hurdle for its two day Chintan Shivir in Jaipur, several of its top leaders have come out in the open about the need for new allies if the 'Grand Old Party of India' wants to come back to power for a third straight term. While the wily Finance Minister Chidambaram has said that it is very difficult for any party to gain an absolute majority on its own, the outspoken Rural Development Minister Jairam Ramesh hit the nail on its head when he told media persons that the INC may need the help of newer partners to form the next government. With many more leaders including Vayalar Ravi and P C Chako echoing Ramesh's line, one should not be surprised if the Congress sends out overtures to other 'like-minded' parties in the near future like the Janata Dal-United (JD-U), presently a constituent of the Opposition NDA or the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), its main adversary in the state of Odisha. As the Congress brain stormed the pros and cons of fighting polls in coalition with other regional outfits, Lalu Prasad Yadav, the original 'joker' of Indian politics, the tag which I believe, he has lost to Congress General Secretary Digvijaya Singh in the last few years, has sounded the electoral bugle and declared the next Lok Sabha polls to be a straight contest between the 'Secular' Congress-led UPA and the 'Communal' BJP-led NDA.

Remember Shri Lalu Prasad Yadav - the former CM of Bihar and the chief of the RJD who had famously declared that one day he would rule the nasion (nation) and serve the pipool (people) on NDTV's Follow the Leader show way back in 2004 when he was a force to reckon with. Speaking to the press in Patna, the former Railway Minister has ruled out the Third Front of being a serious contender for the 2014 General Elections by saying that it will be a two-way contest between the 'Secular' compartment and the 'Communal' compartment. After his party's shameful performance in the 2009, during which he formed the Fourth Front after seat sharing talks with the Congress failed and the near complete rout in the last Bihar assembly polls, the cunning Lalu has voluntarily decided to be a part of the UPA's campaign in its quest for a hat trick of wins and in the process, revive his own political career, which has taken a downward plunge in the last decade. The OBC leader's words reminds me of former US President George Bush's 'You are either with us, or against us' speech after the horrific 9/11 attacks where he gave a clarion call to the leaders around the world to unite, behind America of course, to weed out terror from the face of the Earth. By trying to rake up the 'pseudo secular versus pro-Hindutva' debate, Yadav is acting as a dalal for the ruling party, hopeful that the work done now will reap in benefits in the form of plum ministerial posts in the third installation of UPA.

The precarious situation that the Congress finds itself in, may explain the sudden spurge in the scouting for newer friends. Anti-incumbency apart, the unending lists of scams, high inflation, policy paralysis and more importantly, the lack of a proper vision to take the country forward will make it extremely difficult for the party to even come close to the 200 mark. In fact, after Mamata, who was having an on-off relationship with the government dumped it some time ago, the Manmohan regime is surviving on the outside support of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP). While the government is struggling, its allies in the UPA are doing even worse. The infamous 2G scam and war of succession in the DMK will negatively impact its tally; there is nothing to indicate that NCP may do outstandingly well; other outfits like the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) or the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (NC) will not cross the two digit mark. Besides, Jaganmohan Reddy's revolt and the indecisiveness over the Telangana issue will trim its prospects in a state that has sent the maximum number of MPs in both versions of the UPA. Aware of the multiple problems that plague it today, Congressmen are trying hard to woo other regional parties into its fold. The Janata Dal-United (JD-U) and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) whom political pundits predict to sweep Parliamentary seats on their home turf are high on its list of prospective pals with which it can enter into electoral agreements. Special economic soaps for Bihar and Odisha in the 2013 Union budgets may be one of the many concessions that Congress may offer in return of support.

Sadly for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), it is still to put its house in order to pose any threat to the ruling combine. The battle for succession amongst the various so called 'eligible' candidates that began with the shock defeat of the Vajpayee government in 2004 has only compounded and may even end up imploding the party, like its predecessor the Jan Sangh. During much of 2011 and 2012, when it was engulfed in internal chaos, the civil society led by Anna Hazare and later the Aam Admi Party of Arvind Kejriwal ended up acting as a responsible Opposition, criticizing the government on its failures. As the party was gaining some sort of momentum by cornering the UPA on the various corruption scams that have been unearthed in the past two years, the allegations of diverting illegal wealth into the shell companies of the Purti group against its president Nitin Gadkari have proved to be a major embarrassment, putting it on the back foot. The spectacular victory of Narendra Modi has landed the saffron outfit in a dilemma. After silencing his detractors, both inside the Sangh Parivar and outside, with a huge win, he is today, perhaps the strongest contender to lead the party in 2014. However, projecting Modi as the PM candidate may not go well with the allies in the NDA, especially the JD-U, which on multiple occasions has snubbed the CM of Gujarat. If the BJP plans to enter the fray under his leadership, it will, for sure have to give up even the wildest dreams of getting any support from parties like JD-U, BJD, TMC, SP, BSP and so on, which have a substantial Muslim vote base. Moreover, neither does it have any organizational presence nor does it have any bankable partners in the crucial states of Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu which send 140 odd members to the Lower House.

With the BJP in complete disarray, regional satraps are keen to grab the the anti-INC votes into their kitty. Realizing that every seat will increase their importance on the political stage during the great tamasha that we call government formation, they are going all out to impress the electorate. The Samajwadi Party (SP) is on a roll after its thumping victory in the last Vidhan Sabha polls and is expected to do well in 2014, in spite of young Akhilesh Yadav's 'mis-governance'. Though the Bhaujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) is down after the 2012 debacle, it is certainly not out and still has the potential to fight the SP tooth and nail. With the national parties lacking any sort of organization in Uttar Pradesh, M&M - Mulayam and Mayawati are almost certain to get anywhere between 45 to 60 seats, making them crucial for the formation of a stable government. In neighbouring Bihar, Nitesh Kumar's performance and mass appeal and a non-existing opposition is certain to help his party retain its tally. Also, the war of words between the leaders of the BJP and the JD-U, firstly over the support for Pranab in the Presidential polls and then regarding the candidature of Narendra Modi as the next PM means that all is not well in the NDA and Nitesh may be open to the idea of switching sides in case a special package is allocated to his state in the Union budget. Like in Bihar, Patnaik's excellent performance in Odisha is most likely to convert into votes for the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), a party which one can bet to bag around 15 seats, making it a prized possession for both fronts. Jayalalitha's AIADMK is on a upsurge and the differences between Alagiri and Stalin will go in its favour. Naidu's Telugu Desam, K Chandrashekar Rao's TRS and the newly launched YSR Congress may do well in Andhra whereas Mamata is expected to storm Bengal.

Thus, the stage is set and the race to run the 2014 Lok Sabha has begun. While it is true that the two major national parties might not be in the best of positions, the utopian idea of a non-Congress, non-BJP government - the Third front, the pinnacle of our multi-party democracy, may not become a reality any where in the near future. And to be frank, I believe it is good for the nation, as such a loose coalition of parties headed by selfish leaders, each trying to work only for his region, will ultimately be detrimental to national interests. Thus, in the coming months, both the major alliances will go the extra mile in wooing new partners, offering huge concessions in the process. On the other hand, the smaller parties who find themselves in a win-win situation would like to make the most of it, bargaining hard for a better deal. The coming year is a crucial one with as many as 10 states, mainly in the Hindi heartland and the North-east going to the polls. Major tectonic shifts are expected on the political stage which are definitely expected to have an impact on 2014. As the big elections come closer, expect unholy partnerships to be forged just for political benefit or existing ones broken for greener grass on the other side. No party is an untouchable anymore, irrespective of its ideology, especially if it can get the numbers. After all, as our netas say, there are no permanent friends or foes in politics.

For more on the 2014 General Elections

(1) The Fall of the Triumvirate (Link)

(2) The Double Edged Sword (Link)

(3) Reading Between the Lines (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Top News 
Source: TopNews - Congress and BJP vying for JMM's support (Link)

The Year That Was 2009 - Part I

SINGH IS KING, YET AGAIN

The biggest spectacle of the year 2009 was, beyond any doubt, the elections to the 15th Lok Sabha. The world's largest democracy elected its representatives to the Lower House of the Parliament between 16th April, 2009 and 13th May, 2009 with the aid of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) for the second time in a row. In spite of terror threats and calls for electoral boycott by the Maoists in many places, the Indian voters defied all odds and came out in large numbers to participate in an election which has been seen by many analyst as the fairest national elections to be held in the birthplace of democracy.

The trio of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi and youth icon Rahul Gandhi led the Indian National Congress and its allies to a remarkable electoral victory. With this victory, Manmohan Singh, who in 2004 became India's first Sikh Prime Minister also became the the first PM after Pandit Nehru to be re-elected for a consecutive term after completing a full 5 year term in office. The National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREG), the loan waiver to farmers coupled by the Mr. Clean image of Singh and the goodwill of Sonia meant that the Congress crossed the 200 mark on its own and the UPA fell just short of the half way mark.

Rahul Gandhi led the revival of the Congress in Uttar Pradesh where the party managed to win as many as 21 parliamentary seats and finished second in a four way electoral battle. The impressive figures of the Congress in UP dished all dreams of BSP supremo Mayawati to become the first Dalit PM of India. The Congress wave swept the key state of Andhra Pradesh in both, the state and the national elections. Charismatic CM Y S Rajashekar Reddy led the party to a comfortable majority in the Vidhan Soudha as he routed the TDP-TRS alliance and saw off the threat posed by Chiranjeevi's PRP. In fact, the party won 33 out of the 42 seats to the Lok Sabha from the state. The INC whitewashed the opposition in Delhi and Uttarakhand and won all but one seat in Haryana. Other states where the party outperformed all expectations included Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Punjab.

Not only the Congress but even its allies in the UPA had a lot to cheer for in these polls. Mamata Bannerjee achieved the near impossible as she finally managed to breach the Left bastion of West Bengal. Didi won 19 seats and emerged as the second largest party in the ruling coalition. Also, beating all odds, the DMK got 18 seats in Tamil Nadu as Jayalalitha's AIADMK mustered just 9 seats in spite of its claims to carve a separate nation for Sri Lankan Tamils. However Sharad Pawar, who was seen as a potential Prime Ministerial candidate prior to the polls will be certainly disappointed as the NCP could send only 9 MPs to the Parliament.

The BJP's electoral slogan of 'Kushal Neta, Nirnayak Sarkar' found no takers as the party was reduced to a paltry 116 seats at the national level. The struggle for power within the party and lack of proper political organization before the elections meant that Lal Krishna Advani's last shot for the top spot ended in failure. Also the move to project Narendra Modi as the next PM candidate and calling Singh as a weak PM backfired for the party. However the real villain for the party was the Gandhi within their own ranks. Varun Gandhi's infamous communal speech at Pilibhit won him his constituency but ended up consolidating the Muslim vote in UP in the favour of the Congress. Although the BJP did well in Karnataka, Jharkhand, Bihar, Chattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh, its performance in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Assam was much below expectations. Besides, the party ended up in the fourth spot in the key state of Uttar Pradesh.

The only NDA leader who did well in the 2009 election was Nitish Kumar, the CM of Bihar. He managed to wipe off all opposition in the state and led the NDA to victory in 32 constituencies out of the total 40. BJP's oldest ally, the Shiv Sena managed to muster only 11 seats as its ideology was completely hijacked by Raj Thackeray's MNS. In fact Raj came back to haunt the BJP-SS combine and split the Marathi votes, thereby helping the Congress-NCP coalition to take Maharashtra for the third time in a row.

The biggest losers of these elections were the Left Parties. With their impregnable forts of Kerala and West Bengal being stormed, the Red brigade could only get 24 seats in these elections, a slump of 35 from the 59 seats they won the last time. Ironically for them, the move to withdraw support to the previous UPA government had clearly boomeranged on them. While the performance of other constituents of the Third Front like the BSP, TDP and AIADMK was pretty much average, the star among the Third Front leaders was Naveen Patnaik. The Orissa CM who dumped the NDA over the Left managed to win as many as 14 seats on his own and also came into power with a spectacular two-thirds majority in the state assembly.

The Samajwadi Party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Lok Janshakti Party failed to reach sharing agreements with the Congress and decided to form a new front, hoping to be kingmakers after the election. Despite announcing support for the UPA, they only won 27 seats with SP winning only 20 odd seats, RJD reduced to only 4 and LJP failing to open its account.

On 22nd May, 2009, Manmohan Singh was sworn in as the Prime Minister at the Ashoka Hall of Rashtrapati Bhavan with the support of 322 members. As per convention, on 18th May, he had already submitted his resignation as the Prime Minister to President Pratibha Patil with a recommendation to dissolve the Council of Ministers. Former Finance Minister, P C Chidambaram was made the Home Minister whereas former Home Minister, Pranab Da was given the charge of the Finance Ministry. The former CM of Karnataka, S M Krishna was sworn in as the MEA , Veerappa Moily was given the charge of Law Ministry and Defense went to A K Anthony. Long time Congress loyalists, Anand Sharma (Commerce and Industry), Kapil Sibal (HRD), Murli Deora (Petroleum), Kamal Nath (Road) and Ghulam Nabi Azad (Power) were also accommodated in the cabinet. Among the allies, Mamata got the coveted Railway Ministry, Sharad Pawar retained the Agriculture Ministry and the DMK is represented by Azaghiri, A. Raja and Dayanidhi Maran among others.

The re-election of the UPA government to a second term is a clear indication of the fact that the Indian voter has matured over the years, in the sense that incumbency is no longer a big election issue if the people with power can deliver the goods. The results of the 15th Lok Sabha have re-affirmed the fact that while Hindutva and minority appeasement continue to be used by political parties as electoral issues, the core issue still remains - Development or as it is more commonly referred to in Indian politics as 'Roti, Kapda aur Makan'.

CHAOS WITHIN THE BJP

The BJP decided to confront the Manmohan Singh government on the issues of Governance, Development and Security as a part of its strategy to come back into power after five years of warming the Opposition benches. The electoral campaign of the saffron outfit projected its Prime Ministerial candidate, L K Advani as a strong leader who would make India safer if elected to power and condemned Singh as 'The Weakest Prime Minister in Indian History'.

The BJP's campaign faced its biggest pre-election controversy when the EC directed the District Magistrate of Pilibhit to lodge a criminal case against the BJP's candidate Varun Gandhi for his inflammatory speech against Muslims made on March 7, 2009. Varun pleaded not guilty and claimed that the voice in the tapes were not his. After reviewing the incident, the EC found Gandhi guilty of violating the model code of conduct by creating feeling of enmity and hatred between different communities and issued a recommendation the BJP to drop him from their list of candidates. However, the saffron outfit came out in support of Varun. Meanwhile the Mayawati government in Uttar Pradesh slapped the National Security Act (NSA) against the young leader and put him behind bars. Later the Supreme Court asked the UP government to revoke the Act.

Although Varun's outburst won him his constituency, it ended up polarizing the Muslim vote in favour of the Congress. The Congress won 200 odd seats in the elections with an amazing 21 seats coming from Uttar Pradesh. Also the party's move to counter the Rahul Gandhi factor by portraying Gujarat CM Narendra Modi as the next PM candidate was widely rejected by the electorate around the country. The BJP's tally of 116 seats in the Lower House presented a sorry picture. Almost immediately, the non-RSS leaders of the party like Yashwant Sinha, Jaswant Singh and Arun Shourie called on the then president Rajnath Singh, a RSS favorite, to take moral responsibility for the electoral disaster and resign from his post.

The Chintan Baitak session of the BJP held in Shimla to asses the party’s debacle in the general elections and to strengthen its organization in the wake of the forthcoming state elections started off with a bang as senior party leader and former cabinet minister Jaswant Singh was expelled from the party. The decision came in the wake of the views expressed by Singh in his new book 'Jinnah : India, Independence and Partition' in which he has lauded Mohammed Ali Jinnah and has blamed Nehru and Sardar Patel for India’s partition. 

Also, Rajnath Singh insisted on former Rajasthan CM Vasundararaje Scindia and the then CM of Uttarakhand, B C Khanduri to take responsibility for the party's rout in their respective states while he continued to remain in the office. Although, Khanduri agreed to the decision after some flip flops, Scindia refused to budge even as party veteran Advani was called in to mediate an amicable solution. Among Raje's demands include making her a general secretary at the national level and having an election to appoint the next Leader of Opposition in the Rajasthan Assembly, which by default, will be a Raje loyalist owing to the clout that the former royal holds in Rajsthan unit of the BJP.

Then, to make matters worse, the Liberhan Commission, the longest running inquiry by the Indian government submitted its report on the Demolition of the disputed site of Babri Masjid in Ayodhya after 48 extensions and 17 long years of running, to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. In November 2009, a day after a newspaper published the allegedly leaked contents of the report, the report was tabled in the Indian parliament by the Home Minister Chidambaram. Kalyan Singh, who was the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh during the mosque’s demolition, has come in for harsh criticism in the report. He is accused of posting bureaucrats and police officers who would stay silent during the mosque’s demolition in Ayodhya. Indicting the BJP government in Uttar Pradesh, the one-man commission said in its report: "Kalyan Singh's government was the essential component needed by the Sangh Parivar for its purposes. Kalyan Singh lived up to the expectations of the Parivar". Uma Bharti, Govindacharya and Shanker Singh Vaghela, all of whom were members of the BJP then, are held primarily responsible for the destruction of the mosque and the report says that they could have prevented the assault. Senior BJP leaders Atal Behari Vajpayee, Lal Krishna Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi are called 'pseudo-moderates'. The report holds them intellectually and ideologically responsible for the mosque’s destruction.

Like the National elections, the party's performance in the state elections was also far from satisfactory. The party won only 2 assembly seats in Andhra Pradesh, both coming from the Telangana region. In spite of accusing the Congress led governments at the Centre and in Maharashtra of being soft on terror, the BJP-SS alliance could not prevent the Cong-NCP alliance from winning a straight third term owing to the split in the Sena's traditional Marathi votes in the favour of the Raj Thackeray led MNS. The party finished fourth in the fight for power in Haryana as it won an insignificant 4 seats. When Orissa CM, Navin Patnaik broke way from the NDA many inside the party felt that he would require the help of the BJP to retain his seat as the CM of the state. However, in a triangular contest held in Orissa, Navin shocked everyone as he led the BJD-NCP-Left alliance to a two-thirds majority.

In December the saffron party came together to formally elect a new president in a bid to revive the party's fortune. In a move that clearly emphasized the sway that RSS holds in the BJP, its chief Mohan Bhagwat declared that the next president would be 'someone not from Delhi', a clear indication that he didn't want Advani aides like Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Venkaiah Naidu and Anant Kumar to hold the top job. Later, the BJP's Maharashtra chief, Nitin Gadkari succeeded Rajnath Singh as the President. Also, an era in Indian politics came to an end as Lal Krishna Advani stepped down as the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha and the vacated post went to close aide Sushma Swaraj.

The new president has a herculean task at his hand. The BJP has to clearly shun its pro Hindutva ideology and project itself as an inclusive party that stands for the development of all sections. Besides keeping the various warring factions at bay, he will have to develop a significant support base for the party amongst the youth. Also focus needs to be given to strengthen the part in the BIMARU states, especially UP where the party's fortunes have declined over the years.

INFLATION AND RECESSION HIT THE AAM AADMI

Although Prime Minister Manmohan Singh managed to lead the UPA into a second consecutive term, the principal opposition groups, namely the NDA and the Left Front managed to corner his government over the issue of soaring prices. A delayed monsoon added fuel to the fire as prices of essential commodities skyrocketed. Gradually the prices of daily products like sugar, vegetables and pulses reached an all time high level. The government tried to control the escalating prices by cracking down on hoarders and subsidizing essential products for the poor. Probably what did more damage to the government were the remarks expressed by many of Union ministers who claimed that the factors that led to price rise were beyond the control of the Centre. This clearly showed the inability and in many ways the lack of determination on the part of the government to get this situation under its control. The food price inflation in India soared to decade's highest level of 19.95 per cent in the first week of December.

While the poor were struggling to make their ends meet, the rich were feeling the heat of the Global meltdown. In 2009, the US economy was in recession, the biggest since the ‘Great Depression’ of 1929, and its tremors were also felt across the world markets, both big and small. The Indian outsourcing industry, which then employed over 2 million people and is the principal driving force behind urbanization in India, was dealt a severe blow. Cutbacks, fewer benefits and job losses became the order of the day as even eminent companies struggled to remain afloat.

The Depression has, in many ways separated the extraordinary from the mediocre. As the world emerged from the clout of the recession, the manner in which the economies of the Asia-Pacific region avoided recession was appreciated all over the world. In fact, India recorded a 7.9 per cent rise in the GDP, thereby meeting market expectations and the stock market responded positively.

RED TERROR STRIKES

The year 2009 witnessed the outlawed Maoists take on an more aggressive approach towards the Indian Government. The Taliban style execution of Francis Induwar,  Special Branch Inspector on 30th September was one of the innumerable acts of violence committed by them in the bygone year. The Naxals had earlier said that they would free Induwar if the government released Kobad Ghandy, Chattradhar Mahato, and Chandra Bhushan Yadav, three key Maoist leaders captured by security agencies from different parts of the country. Days after the government rejected this proposed swap, the Inspector's body was found on the Ranchi-Jamshedpur Highway. His head had been severed from his body. Near the Inspector's body, a note by the Naxals, attributing his death to 'police repression'. Among Induwar's colleagues, there's mourning mixed with anger. "We are ready to do our duty, but we need protection. In this atmosphere, how can we carry on working?" asked Ramsarekh Singh, Head, Jharkhand Police Association.

Naxalites struck across Jharkhand and Bihar a day before the states went to polls in the second phase of Lok Sabha elections. On 22nd April, the Naxals seized the Gomo-Mogulsarai BDM train near Hehegarha railway station at about 7:30 am and released it at 11:39 hours without harming any of the passengers. The train, with nine coaches, was packed to capacity with about 700 passengers on board and people even standing on the foot boards of the coaches," Railway PRO in Dhanbad, Amerendra Das said. As a move to secure the release of their leader Chattradhar Mahato, the People's Committee on Police Atrocities (PCPA) held hostage the Delhi bound, Bhubaneshwer Rajdhani Express in Midnapore, West Bengal on 27th October, 2009. Mahato who had been spearheading the agitation against alleged police atrocities, was nabbed from the Pirka region, near Lalgarh village. Although the train was later released, the manner in which the Naxals committed this offense brought to light the fact that Red Terror had become India's topmost internal security concern.

In an earlier development, the police and security forces in Lalgarh, Paschim Medinipur, West Bengal organized an anti-naxal operation to restore law and order in the area and flush out the Maoists, whom the government accused of inciting the tribals. The area of operation covered 18 police stations in the three Maoist affected districts of Paschim Medinipur, Bankura and Purulia. After some initial resistance from the Maoist side, the security forces were able to free the region from the rebels, atleast for the time being. Although the abortive bid to net elusive Maoist leader Kishenji in Lalgarh did not bear fruits, a senior police officer said several important materials were later seized and the operation was not a total failure.

As of 2009, Naxalites are active across approximately 220 districts in several states of India accounting for about 40 percent of India's geographical area. They are especially concentrated in an area known as the 'Red corridor', where they control 92,000 square kilometers. According to India's intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), 20,000 armed cadre Naxalites were operating apart from 50,000 regular cadres working in their various mass organizations and millions of sympathizers, and their growing influence prompted Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to declare them as the most serious internal threat to India's national security. The Naxalites are opposed by virtually all mainstream Indian political groups. In February 2009, Central government announced its plans for simultaneous, co-ordinated counter-operations in all Left-wing extremism-hit states like Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal, to plug all possible escape routes of Naxalites. As a result, there have been fewer casualties than in previous years, and the Naxalites have not been able to expand their influence.

FLOODS PARALYZE SOUTH INDIA

Early October, 2009 saw the heavy floods inundate states of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh after days of torrential rains. At least 269 people lost their lives in floods that are said to be the most devastating in the last century, in these parts of the country. Over 13 lakh people were affected in five districts of Andhra Pradesh alone following unprecedented floods in Krishna river basin. The floods isolated 350 villages, leaving millions homeless. Entire Kurnool city was surrounded by 10 feet water for nearly 3 days.

In Karnataka damage to crops and property is estimated to be in the region of Rs 10,000 crore. For the first time in 60 years that the perennially drought-prone districts of north Karnataka saw such flood fury. The worst affected by the downpour and floods were parts of Bijapur, Gulbarga and Raichur districts in Northern parts of the state through which flow the rivers Krishna and Tungabhadra along with their tributaries.

Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh governments started rescue and relief work on war footing with the help of the defence forces. The tales of people displaced by the massive flooding are heart-rending."Our entire village is under water. Even our relatives and friends have the same problem. We have no clue what to do," said one.

SWINE FLU PANDEMIC

Soon after the outbreak of H1N1 virus in the United States and Mexico in March, the Government of India started screening people coming from the affected countries at airports for swine flu symptoms. The first case of the flu in India was found on the Hyderabad airport on 13th May, when a man traveling from US to India was found H1N1 positive. Subsequently, more confirmed cases were reported and as the rate of transmission of the flu increased in the beginning of August, with the first death due to swine flu in India in Pune, panic began to spread.

The only known drug to work against H1N1 (Tamiflu) was not sold in general medical stores, to prevent the virus from developing antibiotic resistance due to excessive use. The government feared that people would pop in pills for no reason, thereby making the virus resistant to its only known cure. The problem facing the state machinery was the fact that flu infected cases were coming from across the country. 

The first casualty was a 14-year-old girl, Riya Sheikh. The deaTh toll soon rose and on January 1, 2010 the Indian government reported there had been 967 deaths from swine flu in the country with Pune recording as many as 124 deaths and Bangalore coming in 2nd with 74 cases.

Generic version of Tamiflu (Oseltamivir) will now be available in Indian market, several months after the first swine flu attack. Natco Pharma and Strides Arcolabs have launched their generic version of Oseltamivir, Natflu and Starflu. These drugs will be available to the customers directly under prescription.

STATEHOOD FOR TELANGANA?

The state of Andhra Pradesh continued to be in the limelight all through the year 2009. In the state elections, then CM Y S Rajashekar Reddy led the Congress to a much deserved victory over the grand TDP-TRS alliance and Cheranjeevi's Praja Rajam Party. However, the Congress satrap couldn't live long to enjoy his hard earned victory as he met a tragic end in a helicopter crash in the Nallamala ranges. While the state had not yet recovered from the shocking demise of one of the brightest stars on the Indian political horizon, torrential floods inundated many parts along the River Krishna causing immense damage to life and property.

Ahead of the 2009 General Elections in India all the major parties in Andhra Pradesh supported the formation of Telangana but it soon faded into background owing to the various tragedies that hit the state. Then in December 2009, TRS president, K C Rao started a fast-unto-death demanding that the Congress party introduce a Telangana bill in the Parliament. Student organizations, mostly from the Osmania University, employee unions and various organizations joined the movement. Scores of people commited suicide in support of Telangana state. Student organizations planned a massive rally at state legislature on December10, Government warned that the rally does not have permission and deployed police troops though out Telangana. The decline of KCR's health contributed to a sense of urgency for the central government to take a decision on the issue of Telangana statehood.

On December 9, 2009, 11:30 PM, Mr. P C Chidambaram, Union Minister of Home Affairs announced that Indian government had started the process of forming a separate Telangana state and that a resolution would be introduced in Andhra Pradesh assembly for this soon. KCR ending his 11 day fast said from his hospital bed that this a true victory of the people of Telangana. The Central government asked Andhra Pradesh state government to pass of a resolution in this regard in the legislative assembly.

Telangana celebrated the central government decision while non-Telangana regions of Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions protested. Parties like the TDP and PRP soon backtracked from their pro-Telangan stance blaming the Congress of not taking them into confidence before the Home Minister's statement. Several members of Andhra Pradesh's legislature submitted resignations to protest the creation of the new state. As of 16 December, at least 147 legislators, including Praja Rajyam Founder Chiranjeevi and many Members of Parliament had resigned in protest of the Government's decision to carve out a new state of Telangana. 22 Ministers form the State Cabinet also submitted their resignation. To counter this 90 odd MLAs from the Telangan region, cutting across all party lines resigned as a pressure tactic.

At the heart of the Telangana agitation is the possesion of the city of Hyderabad. Geographically speaking, India's sixth largest city lies in the Telangana region of present day Andhra Pradesh. However many people from Rayalseema and coastal Andhra who have commercial interests in the IT city are opposing the formation of the new state as it would mean parting ways with the city of the Nizam. Also unlike Chandigarh, Hyderabad is located deep within the proposed Telangana and so the idea of a joint capital is out of the scene. On the contrary the pro-Telangana organizaions have taken a no-compromise attitude over the question of Hyderabad.

The formation of the new state, if and when, is the perfect scenario for India to reterospect on the policy of states based on linguistic terms. Ironically, the state of Andhra Pradesh was the first state to be formed on linguistic lines after a fast-unto-death by Potti Sri Ramaloo. The demand for a separate Telangana is based primarily on the neglect that it has suffered under successive state governments. While coastal Andhra and Rayalseema have become prosperous, the people of Telangana have for long complained about the step motherly treatment metted out to them. On the other hand, smaller states do not necessarily mean development. While states like Goa, Himachal and Uttarakhand are fast maching on the path towards progress, other newly carved states like Jharkhand and Chattisgarh have been engulfed by corruption and Maoist menace.

Also the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh will open a Pandora's box. Taking a cue from protestors in Hyderabad, the GNLF renewed their call for a separate state for the Gurkhas in Northern Bengal. Several trains were blocked in Nagpur to force the authorities to approve the formation of Vidarbha from Maharashtra. Also the UP CM Mayawati wrote to New Delhi asking the PM to split her state into three smaller states - Harit Pradesh, Purvanchal and Bundelkhand.

MADHU KODA SCAM

On 10th Oct, 2009, former Jharkhand CM Madhu Koda was charged with laundering money worth over Rs. 4000 crores. In nationwide raids by the Enforcement Directorate, assets allegedly worth Rs. 4000 crore - almost a fifth of the annual budget of the state he once ruled - were unearthed. Among others, these assets were reported to include hotels and three companies in Mumbai, property in Kolkata, a hotel in Thailand, and a coal mine in Liberia. Koda, who earlier said that he was a 'poor tribal', has total assets worth over Rs 98 lakh, as per his disclosure with the Election Commission. However investigations showed that his assets include bank deposits, bonds, shares, other savings, two cars, jewellery and land. This alleged scam is said to be the second-largest scam uncovered in India. Minister of State for Home Ajay Maken said that the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) may be asked to probe this scam, in addition to Enforcement Directorate (ED) and the Income Tax Department. In the probes, it was found that Maoists received a 30% share of the 'Koda plunder'.

Koda's life reads like a rags-to-riches tale from Bollywood. His father forced him to give up college because there wasn't enough money and ordered the 'young Madhu to find a job to fend for the family'. A disillusioned Koda, who wanted to join the army , became a labourer instead in an iron mine at Gua. He lugged lumps of iron ore for a promised sum of Rs. 20.50 per day. Koda harboured memories of corruption and exploitation at the mines. "They would get our thumb impressions against payments of Rs.20.50 and would pay us Rs.16. It left an impression on me," he had told the media.

he counting for the Jharkhand Assembly polls were held on 23rd December 2009. Shibhu Soren's JMM emerged as the single largest party in the state that threw up a hung assembly. The Congress won 14 seats while its ally, Babulal Marandi's Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) added another 11. The NDA could get only 20 seats, a significant decline in its standings as compared to the last assembly. Ironically, the BJP in a bid to prevent the UPA from coming into power in yet another state, supported the same Shibhu Soren whom it once had labelled as 'tainted' when he was in the UPA. On 30th December, 2009 Soren was sworn in as the CM of Jharkahand for the third time. He took oath along with BJP and All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) presidents Raghubar Das and Sudesh Mahto.

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7. www.mynews.in
8. www.news.rediff.com
9. www.thaindian.com
10. www.rajalakshmiv.sulekha.com
11. www.thehindu.com
12. www.wikipedia.org
13. www.zeenews.com

( This is the first part of a three part article on the significant events of 2009 )