A PLAN FOR REVIVAL

A FIVE POINT AGENDA FOR RESURRECTION OF THE CONGRESS

The much hyped Congress Working Committee (CWC) meeting scheduled for today ended on a rather familiar note with 'interim' President Sonia Gandhi agreeing to hang on to the top post for six more months. Sparks began to fly late last evening as 23 prominent Congressmen in a letter addressed to the former NAC Chairperson, raised pertinent questions on the lack of visible leadership within the grand old party. Even as Gandhi sycophants stepped in to defend the INC's first family against this unexpected onslaught, former President Rahul Gandhi decided to take the 'dissenters' head on, and as per ANI sources, accused them of 'colluding with the BJP'. Moments later, former minister Kapil Sibal who was one of the signatories to the letter put out a sarcastic tweet hitting back at the Waynad MP. Another prominent 'dissenter', former External Affairs minister Ghulam Nabi Azad threatened to resign if Rahul could prove his charges. Clearly stung by these attacks, Rahul denied making the remark as loyalists including former PM Manmohan Singh, former Defence Minister A K Anthony et all convinced the aging Sonia to stay on.

Though I am no fan of either the Congress or the Gandhis, it is important that the party somehow puts its house in order as soon as possible. For a vibrant democracy, a robust Opposition that takes on the Government on its policies and stands by it during times of national crisis is an absolute must. The Congress has failed so far, on both these fronts. Somehow, the INC has not yet recovered from the jolt of May 2014 and over the years, the abysmal state of affairs within the outfit only continues to worsen. This has further added to the aura of invincibility surrounding the BJP led by the powerful Modi-Shah duo. Even otherwise, the Congress is the inheritor of a rich legacy, having been one of the many prominent players in the national movement. While it is true that the INC of the freedom struggle is a far cry from the INC of today, we must also acknowledge that it is this organization that gave us some of our greatest founding fathers including Nehru, Patel, Bose and the Mahatma. With no full time leader, almost zero inter-party democracy and an outdated ideology, it is highly unlikely that the INC is going to witness a change in political fortunes anytime soon. Even as India's most successful political party struggles to find panacea for the many problems it faces, here is my five point agenda for a possible Congress revival.

(1) A full time President, preferably Rahul Gandhi: For years now, the Congress' longest serving President Sonia Gandhi has not been keeping well. Considering that the Amethi MP is under medication, it is mind-boggling that she is forced to stay on at the helm of affairs in the INC, in spite of the fact that she has offered to step down on multiple occasions. The logic behind this seems to be the fact that the grand old party needs a Gandhi to run the show smoothly. The family is apparently the glue that holds the many factions within the party together. With Sonia needing a break and Priyanka shifting focus to UP, it is imperative that the party leaders convince the 'reluctant Crown Prince' to take back the reins of the Congress. Will this move succeed? I am not sure; Rahul Gandhi's lack luster report card does not inspire confidence either. However, this move will at least clear the leadership mess and set in a clear hierarchy with the Congress. As and when that happens, the Waynad MP must usher in a set of reforms to empower Youth Congress organizations and promote internal democracy, topics which he has spoken about in the past but which, in pure Rahulesque fashion were not followed up during his first tenure.

(2) A clear Ideology: In what can be described as the most passionate speech in his political career so far, Rahul Gandhi while speaking at the AICC in January 2013 described the Congress as follows: 'Congress Party ek soch hain aur yeah soch hum sabke dil mein hain'. It is time that the young Gandhi scion articulated what this soch (idea) is and what it stands for. For decades, the INC has been seen as a Centrist, pro-Socialist, Secular party though not all of its policies have been in accordance to these lofty ideals. The aggressive pro-Hindutva stance of the BJP and its consecutive victories since 2014 seem to have left a deep impact on the grand old party, forcing it to project itself a much softer Hindutav party. It was in the wake of this that Rahul went temple hoping prior to UP 2017 polls and described himself as a 'Janayu-dhari Shiv Bhakt'. Multiple flip flops, especially on issues of national importance like surgical strikes and the building of the Ram Mandir have given more fodder for the BJP to project its nemesis as weak and rudderless. Even as traditional vote banks including Dalits, women and tribals seem to be gravitating to the saffron outfit, the party is fast losing its ground even in its former strongholds like Maharasthra, Andhra-Telangana and North East. There is an urgent need for the Congress to reflect upon what is the 'idea of India' that it arrogates to itself and claims to be fighting for every now and then. It needs an ideology that a young, inspirational India of the 21st century can connect with.

(3) Promoting Regional Leaders: During the decade since its defeat at the hands of the UPA in 2004, it was state leaders like Narendra Modi, Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh who kept the saffron flag flying in the heartland even as the party faced an existential crisis at the national level. In fact, in what was a tribute to the BJP's culture of nurturing dynamic regional satraps, it was the Gujarat CM who brought it to power at the Center after 10 years of warming the Opposition benches. In sharp contrast, it has been the Congress policy since the days of Indira Gandhi to cut wings of ambitious state chieftains in a bid to enforce the power of the High Command. Nine out of ten Congress CMs are Gandhi loyalists who pose no threat to the power and prestige of the first family. Evidently, this culture has back fired. While the Congress tries to fix the mess in the national leadership, the need of the hour is to take on the BJP at the state level. The appointment of Priyanka Gandhi as the AICC in-charge of eastern UP and the elevation of PAAS leader Hardik Patel in Gujarat and strategist D K Shiv Kumar in Karnataka are steps in the right direction. Incumbent CMs like Captain Amarinder Singh (Punjab), Bhupesh Baghel (Chattisgarh) and Ashok Gehlot (Rajasthan) need to be given full backing of the top brass amd more responsibility in framing the future direction of the INC.

(4) Bridging the Young-Old Divide: For a decade that the UPA was in power, the right mix of dynamic youngsters owing allegiance to Rahul Gandhi and a section of experienced loyalists believed to be close to Sonia was seen as the secret for the success of the Congress. As the old timers grabbed the plum ministries, the youngsters seemed to be contend with donning the hat of MoS. Cut to present and the rebellions of Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot paints a sad picture of a party that is imploding from within thanks to the frictions between the pro-Rahul and pro-Sonia camps. While Sachin was convinced to stay back, the grand old party has already lost some of its most promising young Turks including Scindia Jr., Hemanta Biswas Sarma, Pradyot Manikya Debbarma and Ajoy Kumar. Several other next gen leaders like Milind Deora, Sanjay Nirupam, Navjyot Singh Sidhu and Naveen Jindal are reportedly unhappy with being left out from the scheme of things within the Congress. The INC needs to think how it can manage its demographic divide and reap rich dividends out of it.

(5) Getting more Allies on board: Last but not the least, the INC needs to work towards broadening the UPA by getting more parties on board in its fight against the BJP led NDA. A formal alliance with the Left Front at least in Kerala for the national elections will make sure 20 seats are kept out of reach of the saffron outfit. Similarly, other anti-BJP parites like Mamta Bannerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC), Kejriwal's Aam Admi Party (AAP) and HDK's Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) will only improve its tally. However, for the broadening of UPA, the INC should be ready to make sacrifices; it has already shown that it is ready for this by tying up with the Shiv Sena in Maharasthra and allowing Kumarswamy to become the CM in Karnataka in spite of winning less than 40 seats in the 220 odd strong state legislative assembly. However, more would be needed in the days to come for the Congress to reclaim its long lost pre-eminent position in Indian politics.

PILOT HITS TURBULENCE

GEHLOT CATCHES SACHIN ON A STICKY WICKET

Sachin Pilot - Courtesy: Face Book

Last week, former Rajasthan Deputy CM Sachin Pilot hit the headlines as he along with his band of loyalists shifted base to BJP ruled Haryana in revolt against his bête noire - CM Ashok Gehlot. Though there have been reports of his differences with Gehlot ever since the Congress came to power in the state in 2018, it seems that police summons to the young leader from Tonk, asking him to join investigation in a probe related to alleged efforts on parts of the BJP to topple the government seemed to have been the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back. As talks to resolve the crisis failed to achieve any success, in spite of involvement of the Gandhi siblings, the Congress decided to take action.

Not only was he stripped off his position as the state's Deputy CM and the chief of the Rajasthan Pradesh Congress Committee (RPCC), Sachin and the 18 MLAs who came out in his support were served notices for disqualification under the anti-defection law which was later challenged by them in the Rajasthan High Court; in a relief, the court has directed the Speaker of the state assembly to wait till it delivers its judgement in the case on Monday. With Ashok Gehlot consolidating his position and upping the ante against the rebels, it seems that doors within the grand old party are finally shutting on party's former blue-eyed boy in the dessert state. Aware that numbers are not on their side and the factional feud within, the BJP has not expressed much interest in the affair, at least for the time being though its sympathies seem to be completely with Pilot Jr. as seen in the way the rebel MLAs were protected when a team from Rajasthan police reached Thanesar to grill them.

Ashok Gehlot - The Chanakya of Rajasthan politics: For over three decades, the incumbent CM has been the face of the party in the state and Sachin Pilot is just the latest of the many detractors he has taken on in his illustrious career. Serving as a Union Minister under Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi and Narasimha Rao, the leader from Jodhpur first took over the reins of the state in 1998, when the INC bagged 153 seats against the BJP led by Bhairon Singh Shekawat. This in spite of the fact that the party campaign was led by Jat leader and Gehlot's mentor Parasram Maderna, who was later made the Speaker in the state assembly. In what seemed like an action replay, the Sadarpur MLA later beat his rival C P Joshi to became the CM again in 2008 though it was the latter who was the party's face in its electoral campaign. Back then, what made matters difficult for Joshi, currently serving as the Speaker was that he lost from his constituency Nathdwara by a single vote. Ditto in 2018; while the INC won the mandate under Pilot's leadership, he had to contend with being second in command to Gehlot who is not only a close confidante of Sonia Gandhi but also enjoys an enormous clout within the state Congress unit.

A close analysis of Gehlot's moves in the last few months indicate that he left Pilot with no option but to rebel. At the onset of 2020, he convinced six MLAs from Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) to join the Congress, thereby increasing the party's tally to 107. After being able to keep the party flock together in the recently concluded Rajya Sabha polls, he decided to take on Pilot who had been critical of the state government, especially after the Congress drew a blank in the 2019 General Elections in Rajasthan. A probe was set up to look into allegedly efforts made by the BJP to topple the state government in collusion with some Congress leaders, though it was very clear who the target was, when the former Deputy CM was asked to appear before the police. When the news of Sachin's rebellion became public, the CM began wooing the two MLAs of the local outfit Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) to bolster his numbers. While the party's central leadership was working on a rapprochement between two of their tallest leaders in the state, Gehlot went on the offensive, accusing Sachin of being hand-in-gloves with the BJP to bring the government down. This was seen by many as a conscious effort on part of Gehlot to make Pilot's ghar wapsi impossible, thereby cementing his position as the sole leader of the INC in Rajasthan.

What next for Pilot? While Sachin Pilot's association with the Congress seems to be all but over, the suspense over his political future continues to deepen with each passing day. The former Minister of Corporate Affairs has denied all reports of him joining the BJP though the saffron camp has extended tacit support to him.

To begin with, it looks like the Tonk MLA miscalculated his strength within the party. With Rahul Gandhi stepping down from the post of the INC President, there has been a steady decline in the political fortunes of the young brigade seen to be close to him. Sachin only joins a growing list of Congress leaders including Jitin Prasad, Milind Deora, Navjyot Singh Sidhu etc who have been sidelined with the resurgence of the old guard after the debacle in 2019 General Elections. Coming back to Rajasthan, not only did Pilot walk into the trap that Gehlot seems to have been setting for him, he also seems to have over estimated his strength within the Congress Legislative Party in the state. With only 18 MLAs joining him in his rebellion and the BJP having its own set of problems to deal with, Gehlot seems to be set to occupy the CM's chair for some more time.

Considering that he enjoys substantial political power in the Ajmer region, Sachin Pilot may even launch his own regional outfit in his bid to fight Gehlot though the electorate has not been keen on voting for a non-BJP, non-Congress government in Jaipur. Prior to the 2018 state elections, BJP leader Ghanshyam Tiwari who had been a vocal critic of then then CM Vasundhara Raje floated his own outfit - Bharatiya Vahini Party (BVP) to offer a third alternative to the people. The Brahmin leader failed to win a singe seat and merged his party into the Congress last year. Nagaur strongman Hanuman Beniwal fared a little better, winning three seats though his Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) is a part of the NDA today. Similar attempts made by political heavyweights including Kirodi Lal Meena, Devi Singh Bhati and Lokendra Singh Kalvi have been rejected by the electorate. Will Sachin succeed where these men failed is something to be seen.

Meanwhile, it is believed that former CM and BJP leader Vasundhara Raje is not very keen in bringing the young leader into the saffron fold. Moreover, Pilot too may not be comfortable with joining the BJP; after all, his former colleagues like Jyotiraditya Scinda and Hemanta Biswa Sarma who left the Congress to be in the saffron fold have not been able to lead the BJP in their states, something that Sachin is eager to do.

Though he may have been out smarted by the wily Gehlot, age though is firmly on Sachin Pilot's side. At 43, he still has a long way to go. Besides, he comes from an illustrious family and there is still a lot of good will for his father Rajesh Pilot who died tragically in a car crash in 2000. It is expected that for the time being, Sachin will wait and watch out for disgruntled Congress MLAs who might be willing to join him in his rebellion so that he can pull the plug on the Gehlot government before either launching his own party or joining the BJP prior to the next state polls.

The Internal Mess Within the BJP: While it is true that the numbers may not be with them, the lethargy on the part of the BJP's top leadership in Rajasthan to even come out openly in support of Pilot shows the fissures that run deep within the saffron camp in the state. It is fact that for sometime now, former CM Vasundhara Raje Scindia has been miffed with attempts to sideline her within the party though she enjoys the support of over 30 party MLAs. In fact, her absence at the pro CAA rally organized at Jodhpur and attended by Home Minister Amit Shah was seen by many as her symbolic protest against the treatment meted out to her after the party's defeat in 2018 state polls. The appointment of Satish Poonia as the state BJP chief and the elevation of Om Birla as the Speaker of Lok Sabha both seem to have rubbed the former royal in the wrong way since she has not been on good terms with either of them. RLP leader Hanuman Beniwal, an ally of the NDA and a known Raje baiter has questioned her silence on Pilot's rebellion.

Apparently, Raje sees the younger Pilot as a potential threat to her claim to the CM chair's in case the BJP comes back to power in the future. Moreover, she may want her own son Dushyant Singh, four time BJP MP from Jhalawar-Baran constituency to continue her political legacy and may see Pilot as a rival to her son's rise in the saffron ranks. The internal feuds within the Rajasthan BJP, in sharp contrast to the unity it displayed in MP under Shivraj Singh Chauhan and in Karnataka under B S Yeddyurappa has relegated the BJP to be more of a passive player in the whole imbroglio, which just does not fit in the aggressive brand of politics that the saffron outfit has displayed in the Modi-Shah era.

MAIDAN-e-JUNG - Part V

KEY TAKEAWAYS

(5) Ballot over Bullet: In spite of the calls for boycott by separatist leaders and killings of Sarpanchs across party lines by Pakistan backed militants, the people of the state of Jammu Kashmir came out in record numbers to exercise their democratic right as promised under the Indian Constitution. While many in New Delhi have hailed this as a 'pro-India' vote, it is important that we must not jump the gun. Whether we like it or not, there is a large section of population particularly in the Valley that has 'issues' with India. Instead of playing politics over the turnout, we need to take concrete efforts to make sure that the northern state and its people are completely integrated into the country. The people of the Valley have shown tremendous faith in the Indian democracy by choosing to take part in the recently concluded free and fair polls, something that can never happen across the other side of the border. Now it is up to the politicians to make sure that they deliver on their promises and don't let them down. At the same time, we must also commend the Election Commission of India and the security forces for making sure that the state elections were held peacefully in the politically volatile region.

(4) No respite in sight for the Congress: Considering the plight of the party in other parts of the country, Congressmen should be happy that they managed to cut down their losses and finished with a tally of 12 seats. But then, the sorry state of affairs in the grand old party is a major cause of concern. It goes on to show that the INC just does not have the will to initiate steps to put things back on track. The party seems to be waiting for a miracle to happen; at least as long as Rahul is at the helm of affairs, it is highly unlikely something of that sort could happen anytime in the near future. What should worry the INC is that not only is it losing ground, the BJP led by Modi is making inroads in states which have been traditional strongholds of the Congress. The year 2014 has seen the party and its remaining allies in the UPA lose as many as four states, three of these to the saffron outfit including Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand besides the drubbing that it got in the General Polls. If the Congress does not set things right in the next six months, it could well be game over for India's most celebrate political party.

(3) The supremacy of Kashmir's political dynasty is under threat: Yes you read it right. Many of you might think that I am not making sense. However, let me try to explain what I mean with the help of some numbers. In the 2002 polls, the two national parties - the Congress and the BJP together won 21 seats whereas the two major regional players viz the PDP and the NC bagged more than twice as much - 44. Six years later, the tally of the national parties grew to 28 while the parties based out of the Valley won 49. Surprisingly though, as the results began to trickle this Tuesday, an interesting thing to note was that the two parties had won 37 seats, just six less the combined tally of the PDP and the NC which stood at 43. With the two national outfits make headway in Jammu Kashmir, parties in Kashmir should be worried.

The People's Democratic Party (PDP) managed to edge past the BJP in the race to be the single largest party in the state winning 28 seats. Though it is certain that the outfit will be heading the next regime in Srinagar, the Muftis must be a tad disappointed that they could not win more seats; a tally of 35 would have more or less settled the issue of the formation of the next government. On the other hand though, Omar Abdullah must be happy that the NC prevented a rout, something that the pundits had predicted. Besides, in a hung assembly, Omar could still be the 'King Maker'.

(2) Take a bow BJP: Buoyed with the results of the 2014 General Polls wherein it won three of the six parliamentary seats from Jammu Kashmir, BJP President and Modi's 'Man Friday' Amit Shah set a herculean task before the party cadre here - 'Mission 44+'. While the party could only win 25 seats, it emerged as second largest party in the new Jammu Kashmir assembly, just three seats behind the PDP. So what if all the MLAs hail from Jammu or the fact that it could not make its political debut in Kashmir, with 23 percent of the votes it was the most popular party in the state in spite of the fact that it did not contest all the seats in the Valley. However, it would be extremely difficult for any of the two regional players to join hands with the BJP considering its tough stance on Article 370 and calls for greater autonomy to Kashmir. Even if it does not form the next government here, one thing is clear - the party will end up being the primary Opposition in the state assembly. Thus the BJP is all poised to play a much bigger role in India's only Muslim dominated state.

(1) The Politics of Regions: The northernmost state of the country is geographically and culturally divided into three regions - Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh. For long, the people of Jammu and Ladakh have alleged that they have received step-motherly treatment at the hands of Kashmiri politicians and to a large extent it is true. However, the results of the 2014 polls have shown that opinions and political aspirations of the people of each of these regions is different.

Kashmir which accounts for 46 of the 87 seats in the state assembly did not elect a single BJP candidate. However, the seats here were split between the PDP, the NC, the Congress and others. The Muftis took home over half of the seats from this part of the state, the Abdullahs bagged 13 whereas the rest of the constituencies were won by the INC and others. In Ladakh, the Congress which had narrowly lost to the BJP in the last polls extracted some revenge by winning two of the four seats. In the Jammu region though, it was the BJP which took home the lion share of seats, winning a whopping 25 of the 37 seats, followed by the Congress, the NC and the PDP.

For all posts related to the Jammu Kashmir State Polls 2014, click here (Link)

KERALA & LOK SABHA 2014

CAN THE LEFT SALVAGE LOST PRIDE?

From Goa, we move on to another tourist destination - God's own country of Kerala. Located on the western coast, the state generally sees a bipolar contest between the Congress and the Left Front. However, if you think that the polls in the southern state that boasts of the highest literacy rate in the country are just about the two main parties, then you are way out of the mark. A lot is at stake here, quite literally. After failing to find any allies in Tamil Nadu, the refusal of KCR to merge his outfit into the INC and an impending rout in Seemandhra, the UPA's hopes are pinned on Karnataka and Kerala if it has to do well south of the Vindhyas. For the Left, the situation is even more precarious. Mamata Bannerjee seems to be getting stronger by the day in its former bastion of Bengal. For the 'Dead Front', I mean Third Front (Link) to even dream of coming to power in New Delhi, the Communist have to win a minimum of 30 seats. In that case, the Reds have to sweep Kerala so as to make up for their losses in the elsewhere.

ISSUES

(1) The Anti-Congress, anti-BJP Front: Kerala is one state where the Left's idea of an alternative front may find many takers. The Congress led UPA government at the Centre has flopped on all issues of national importance. Innumerable corruption scandals and economic slow down has tarnished the image of the country and has dented the credibility of the INC. Secondly, the elevation of Narendra Modi within the ranks of the saffron outfit has polarized the situation to some extent. In Kerala, where nearly 44 percent of the population are non-Hindus, you can expect the comrades to talk about 'Secularism' in their campaign.

(2) Kasturirangan Report on Western Ghats: The Kasturirangan report on the protection of ecological diverse Western ghats identified 123 villages in the state as Ecologically Sensitive Areas. The Ministry of Environment issued a memorandum last November to curb activities in these villages. This has angered Christian farmers who have traditionally voted for the Congress and its ally, the Kerala Congress. The influential Catholic Church too has stepped in, asking the Central government to consider the plight of the farmers. Realizing that the incumbent regime is on the back foot, the UDF has been taking a rather tough stand on this issue, both within the assembly and on the streets too.

(3) Alliance troubles for the Communists: For all, the Leftists have been the strongest advocaters of a federal formation to lead the country. For such an alliance, it is imperative that they have to join hands with nearly 10 to 15 partners across the nation, an art first displayed by Vajpayee which was later perfected by the Congress. However, can the Communists manage to hold their allies together. The political developments in Kerala over the last few days do not suggest so. The LDF received a shock last week when its former ally - the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) joined the UDF after a meeting with CM Ooman Chandy. The move comes after the CPI and the RSP failed to come to a conclusion over who amongst then two will field candidate from the Kollam seat.

CONTENDERS

(1) The United Democratic Front (UDF): The UDF, which is presently ruling in the state is led by the Congress. Unlike last time when it contested 17 of the 20 seats, it has decided to contest two seats less this time around. The INC is so confident of its good performance in the state that it has renominated 11 of its 13 incumbent including the four Union Ministers namely Kodikkunnil Suresh (Mavelikara), K C Venugopal (Alappuzha), K V Thomas (Ernakulam) and Shashi Tharoor (Thiruvananthapuram). Meanwhile, P C Chacko who headed the Joint Parliamentary Committee that looked into the 2G scam has shifted to Chalakkudi due to factionalism in the Thrissur unit of the Congress. Besides, P T Thomas, a close aide of the CM Chandy however, has been denied a ticket from Idukki following pressure from the Church over his remarks in favor of the Kasturirangan report.

The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) has got two seats as per its seat sharing arrangement with the Congress. The Minister of State for External Affairs E Ahamed will re-contest from Malappuram. Other constituents of the UDF - the Kerala Congress (Mani) and the Socialist Justice Party (SJP) have got one seat each. The Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) which grabbed all the eyeballs after its bitter divorce with the LDF has bagged the Kollam seat. On the paper, the UDF is one of the most powerful combinations in the nation today (Link).

(2) The Left Democratic Front (LDF): The Communist Party of India - Marxist (CPI-M) is the dominant partner in the LDF. The comrades know how important the Kerala polls are for its political ambitions at the Centre. However, considering the way it is throwing around its weight, it seems that it is bound to doom. It seems that the party is said to contest or support independent candidates in 15 seats. It has left out four seats for the Communist Party of India (CPI). The Janata Dal - Secular (JD-S) is set to contest from the Kottayam seat. Several smaller outfits are upset with the high-handedness of the CPI-M and are likely to damage the prospects of the Left Front. An interesting feature in the party's list is that it has declared support to as many as five independents including former Congressman Philipose Thomas from Pathanamthitta.

(3) Others: The BJP is expected to at least increase its vote share if not win a ticket in Kerala. The saffron outfit has more than a nominal presence in the northern parts of the state, especially the areas bordering Karnataka. Besides, former minister in Vajpayee cabinet, the 85 year old O Rajagopal has been fielded from the state capital. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) too has fielded some strong candidates including writer cum activist Sara Joseph (Thrissur), former IPS Officer Ajit Joy (Thiruvananthapuram) and journalist Anita Pratap (Kochi). What could go against the party are the comments made by senior leader Kumar Vishwas who taken racial digs at nurses from the state.

PAST PERFORMANCES

The below chart shows the performance of various parties in Kerala over the last five big polls. Between 1996 and 1999, the two major players - the INC and the Left Front (CPI-M and CPI) both won an equal number of seats. However, in 2004 it was the Communist who walked away with lion's share of seats. The Congress was humiliated in Kerala even as it dislodged the BJP from power in New Delhi. In 2009, as the Left dropped from 64 to 30 odd seats, the Congress increased its tally to 13 in the state. The comrades could only win only 4 seats. The IUML has been performing well in its stronghold, winning two seats, 4 out of 5 times. The Mani faction of the Kerala Congress to has displayed good consistency winning Kottayam on 4 occasions.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Congress (INC)	13	-	8	8	7
Indian Union Muslim League (IUML)	2	1	2	2	2
Kerala Congress (Mani)	1	-	1	1	1
Left (CPI-M/CPI)	4	15	8	8	7
Others	-	4	1	1	1

MY PREDICTIONS

In an earlier article I have named the UDF in Kerala as one of the potential game changers in 2014 elections (Link). Even the Times Now and the recently concluded NDTV-Hansa Research Opinion Polls seems to indicate that the Congress and its allies will do exceedingly well. I see a repeat of the 2009 election results this time around too. The UDF may drop a couple of seats to finish at 12-14 seats whereas the remaining will go the Red's kitty.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	UDF (INC/IUML/KC(M)/SJP/RSP)	12-14
2	LDF (CPI-M/CPI/JD-S)	6-8
3	Others	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) The fight for Thiruvananthapuram: While he may have in the news for all the wrong reasons including the death of his wife Sunanada Pushkar last month, the Congress has stuck with its Minister and former UN official Shashi Tharoor from the state capital. However, the fight is not going to be easy this time around. The many controversies have led to bad press. At the same time, BJP's Rajagopal too is expected to perform well. The urban voters who seem to be attracted to Narendra Modi may vote for him. Ajit Joy from the AAP is also in the fray. It will be interesting to see who will win from here.

(2) Can the saffron outfit make its debut? The BJP has a good chance to open its account in the state. The BJP seems to be strong in north and in the capital. However, can it translate into seat(s) is the big question. Earlier whenever the party seemed to be strong, the Congress and the Left would enter into a secret pact where either of the two would field a weak candidate as to prevent the division of votes. However, it seems as if no such 'sinister deals' have been made this time around as both Fronts have gone full throttle to maximize their gains. This is the opportunity for the saffronists to make their mark in state politics.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

CHANGE OF GUARD

WILL REPLACING BAHUGUNA HELP THE CONGRESS

Harish Rawat (Courtesy: Sahara Samay)

With the elections coming closer, the Congress seems to be cornered on all fronts. The myriad corruption scandals, high inflation rates and economic slump have led to a strong anti-incumbency wave across the country. On the other hand, the BJP which had been a divided house for nearly a decade has found a new rallying point - its PM nominee Narendra Modi who has captivated the minds of the cadre. The INC tried to counter the Gujarat CM's growing influence by raising the issue of 'Secularism'. However, as opinion polls have predicted, the saffron leader's development agenda is a big hit amongst the masses while Congress' arguments are finding no takers. At the same time, the willingness of several non-NDA parties to work with the Hindutva leader was another big jolt to the UPA leadership, clearly indicating that many regional players are ready to join the BJP-led alliance provided it crosses the 200 mark. Aware of Modi's growing popularity and in a bid to divert attention from the failures of the UPA at the Centre, the party changed its strategy, deciding to focus on local issues at the state level. This too was a failure with the BJP and the AAP sweeping the recently concluded elections in the four states. Finally, the Congress took the big gamble as Rahul Gandhi gave a rare interview to Times Now Editor-in-chief Arnab Goswami. At the end of the 75 minute show, the younger Gandhi who could neither give convincing answers to any question thrown at him nor could put across his vision for the country was the laughing stock of the nation. At a time when they should convince people to vote for them, the party leaders are seen defending the royal scion in the last few days. Meanwhile the INC has not yet given up hope of a third consecutive term. The sacking of the Uttarakhand CM Vijay Bahuguna just a few months before the Lok Sabha polls is seen as a move to boost its chances in the state which it had swept in 2009. 

This is not the first time that a ripple effect of the General Elections has been felt in the capital Dehradun. In 2009 Lok Sabha polls, following the INC's white wash of the BJP, the incumbent CM B C Khanduri was asked to step down and replaced by his own aide Ramesh Pokhriyal. This move turned out to be a disaster; his alleged role in several scams became a cause of embarrassment to the party which was already facing the heat down south in Karnataka. Aware that Pokhriyal could dampen the party prospects in the 2012 state polls, Khanduri was brought back and placed at the helm of affairs. What should have been a cakewalk for the Congress turned out to be one of the closest electoral battles in the last few years thanks to factionalism within its ranks. Winning one seat more than the saffron outfit, the INC formed the government with support from the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP), the Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD) and some independents. In what was seen as a counter to curb the growing influence of regional satraps like Harik Singh Rawat, Harish Rawat and Yaspal Arya to name a few, the party high command asked the dark horse - Tehri MP Vijay Bahuguna to occupy the top post. The first big jolt to the new CM came just few months down the line when his son Saket, a business man lost his dad's seat of Tehri to BJP's Mala Rajlakshmi Shah by over 22,000 votes. One of the prime reasons for the defeat was that several of the high profile state leaders refused to campaign for the CM's son. The big blow however, came in June 2013 when flash floods in and around the holy city of Kedarnath claimed over 5000 lives. Life and property worth crores was destroyed and tourism, one of the state's premiere sources of income took a major hit. In the following months, the callousness of the state administration to carry out the rescue operations and shoddy rehabilitation efforts further added to the strong anti-incumbency wave against the Central government, here in the hill state. As such, the Congress had no option but to sack Bahuguna. MP Harish Rawat, who enjoys the support of the majority members in the state legislature was made the CM.

CONSTITUENCY	1996	1998	1999	2004	2009
Almora	BJP	BJP	BJP	BJP	INC
Garhwal	AIIC (T)	BJP	BJP	BJP	INC
Hardwar	BJP	BJP	BJP	SP	INC
Nainital	AIIC (T)	BJP	INC	INC	INC
Tehri-Garhwal	BJP	BJP	BJP	BJP	INC

(1) Until 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the five constituencies in Uttarkhand were a part of Uttar Pradesh.

(2) AIIC (T): All India Indira Congress (Tiwari) was a splinter group of the Congress formed by N D Tiwari,  Arjun Singh and Natwar Singh which later merged with the INC.

The decision for a regime change in Dehradun should not surprise anybody. All opinion polls suggest that the UPA is struggling across the country. At the same time, Bahuguna administration's inefficient way of handling the relief work had become a major poll issue in the state which the BJP was trying to use for its own advantage. The Congress is hoping that the change of guard will cut down the anti-INC sentiments to some extent. A look at the above chart, showing which party won the five constituencies in the state over last five General Elections throws a surprising picture. Four out of the five times, Uttarkhand has chosen a clear winner. In other terms, it is a winner-takes-all state, like Tamil Nadu. In 1996, there was a close contest between the BJP and the N D Tiwari led AIIC(T). In the next two elections though, saffron wave swept the state as Congress struggled, managing to win just one seat in 1999. In 2004, the SP won Hardwar bringing the BJP's tally down by one whereas the INC held on to Nainital. The last election saw the Congress humiliating the BJP 5-0 in spite of the BJP lead coalition government in the state. The Congress' excellent show here was one of the biggest reasons for it to cross the 200 mark on its own. Five years down the line, with a strong anti-INC wave at the Centre and people's discontent with the state administration, the BJP is trying to capitalize on the situation and repeat its showing in 1998. The nomination of the Harish Rawat as the Chief Minister is an attempt by the Congress to bolster its prospects in the state. Will it work? Lets wait and watch.

IMAGES

(1) Harish Rawat (Courtesy: Sahara Samay)
Original: Sahara Samay - 1200 crores for disaster relief operations (Link)