O MAJHI RE

WILL MANJHI TAKES NITISH's SAHARA?

Jitan Ram Manjhi - Courtesy: FB

After taking a series of pot shots at Rashtriya Janat Dal (RJD) and its leader Tejashwi Yadav over the course of the month for failing to adhere to the coalition dharma, former Bihar CM and HAM(S) chief Jitan Ram Manjhi has decided to break ranks with the Mahaghatbandhan prior to the impending state polls, scheduled for the end of the year. The decision was taken at the party plenum convened at the chief's residence in Patna where it empowered the EBC leader to take all decisions regarding the future of the outfit. Ahead of the all important state elections, it was speculated that there could be some hiccups within the two major formations in Bihar and with his decision to call it splits with the RJD led UPA, the leader from Gaya may have just opened the flood gates for other smaller parties to look for greener pastures across the politicl spectrum.

For a state renowned for its politicians changing parties based on which way the winds are blowing, the leader from the Extremely Backward Musahar community is no exception. In fact, Manjhi has been the poster boy of the political opportunism that is so rampant in Bihar. He began his political career in the Congress in the early 80s and rose to become a cabinet minister in successive INC regimes in Patna before jumping to the Janata Dal and then moving to Lalu Yadav's RJD. Having served as a minister in Lalu and Rabri cabinets, he joined the Nitish Kumar led JD-U when the former came to power in late 2005. Manjhi has not been a stranger to controversies too; he was an accussed in the fake B Ed. degree racket during his tenure as the state education minister in the Lalu regime in the 90s but was absolved of all charges later.

The biggest moment in his four decade long political career came in 2014 when he was elevated to the post of the state's Chief Minister after incumbent CM Nitish Kumar took responsibilty of his party's rout at the hands of the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls and stepped down. This was seen as an attempt on part of the JD-U chief to woo back the EBCs who had gravitated to the saffron outfit under Narendra Modi. Unfortunately for Manjhi, his days at the center of politics in Bihar did not last long, especially after it emerged that he would not be a rubber stamp CM. Asked to resign in wake of the 2015 state polls to make way for Nitish to lead the Grand Alliance, the leader from Gaya put up a spirited defence, refusing to vacate the chair for his party chief. Clearly short of numbers to prove his majority, he resigned and launched the Hindustani Awam Manch (Secular), accusing his former boss of targeting him on the basis of his 'low' caste status.

Thanks to his short though controversial tenure as the Bihar CM, it was believed that Manjhi could potentially become the new face of the EBCs in Bihar, thereby cutting into the traditional votebank of the JD-U. Moreover, on the poll campaign, he would play up the sympathy card, vowing to avenge the insult heaped upon him and the entire EBC community by Nitish. It was on this assumption that the HAM-S was allocated 20 seats by the NDA for the hotly contested 2015 state polls. As the freinds turned foes turned friends - Lalu and Nitish joined hands, the NDA was swept away; HAM(S) managed to win just a single seat. In what was seen as a personal loss, Manjhi was himself beaten in Makdumpura though he did prevail in Imanganj, a saving grace at max. The result was a clear indication of the fact that the EBCs had continued to place their trust in the JD-U. August 2017 witnessed a major realignment of political forces in Patna. As his relations with his then deputy Tejaswi Yadav became untenable, Nitish ditched the RJD to rejoin the NDA, forcing Manjhi to ally the HAM(S) with the Mahaghatbandhan. In the 2019 General Elections, the party put up candidates in 3 parliamentary seats - Nalanda, Aurangabad and Gaya as a part of the UPA only to draw a blank. With two back to back setbacks, Manjhi and his outfit seem to be more or less sinking into political oblivion.

Now that he has dilly-dallyed with both the NDA and the UPA in Bihar, what's next for Manjhi? Perhaps, the easier (yet impractical) option is to work towards the formation of a Third Front in Bihar. The HAM(S) can tie up with smaller parties and social organizations including Assad-ud-din Owaisi's AIMIM, Pappu Yadav's Jan Adhikari Party (JAP), the NCP, the SP and the Left Parties amongst others. In the weeks ahead, as the two major political formations in the state sit down to finalize their seat-sharing arrangements, Manjhi could find ample opportunities to woo disgruntled elements including Kushwaha's RLSP, Sahani's VIP or even Paswan's LJP to his front. In case of a hung assembly, these smaller outfits could decide who forms the next government in Patna. However, I call this option 'impractical' because for long now, Bihar has given a clear mandate and I see no indication as to why 2020 would be different. Also, forming such a rainbow alliance is going to be a herculean task. Even otherwise, lacking a clear political agenda or dedicated cadre and voter base, the HAM(S) seems to be in no position to win more than one or two seats in case it fights alone, making it largely irrelevant even in case of a hypothetical hung assembly.

The other more practical approach is to accept that the HAM(S) experiment has flopped and merge it either into the BJP or still better, the JD(U). Political realignment is not something new in Bihar. Moreover, in the current scenario, incumbent CM Nitish Kumar may be more than willing to welcome back his former comrade. Apart from a 15 year long incumbency, the JD(U) is still facing some backclash for having dumped the RJD for the Modi led NDA. Some of the most prominent faces of the outfit including former President Sharad Yadav and spokesperson Pawan Kumar Verma are no longer with him. At this stage, Kumar should be relieved to have some of his older loyalists with him as he faces the toughest political battle of his career. The question is whether HAM(S) chief can swallow his pride and do a Sachin Pilot.

BIHAR 2015: THE VERDICT

BJP SWEPT AWAY AS LALU HELPS NITISH EARN A HAT-TRICK

Though many were expecting Bihar to be a close contest after a bitterly fought campaign, with leader from both camps often indulging in 'inappropriate' language and even going below the belt on some occasions, the people of India's third most populous state have delivered a resounding verdict, choosing the 'Mahaghatbandhan' led by by their incumbent CM Nitish Kumar over PM Narendra Modi's NDA. In many ways, it was a fairy tale come back for the JD-U chief; after a series of blunders that threatened to jeopardize his political career altogether, he has 'risen' from the ashes, beating the PM with whom, he has had some scores to settle with. While Kumar is all set to retain the chair of the CM, the 'Man of the Series' is certainly Lalu Prasad Yadav. The former Bihar CM who was once Nitish's staunchest rival is in my opinion, one of the biggest factors responsible for the 'grand' victory of the mega alliance. For the BJP and its allies though, the results have been crushing; saying that the NDA 'lost' the polls would be a massive under statement since they have been 'routed' with the regional front winning thrice as many seats as the BJP led coalition.

The highlight of the Bihar state polls 2015 for me has been the manner in which Nitish, Lalu and most importantly, the cadre of the two parties have resolved the bitter differences that existed amongst them in the past and literally blown away the BJP and its allies. While there is no doubt that this was an alliance to retain their political significance, the JD-U chief and the RJD supremo must be credited for sticking together in spite of varying styles of functioning and reaching consensus on all important issues including the post of CM, seat sharing arrangement, campaign strategy et all. Though there were some murmurs of dissent within their ranks initially, the cadre too seem to have worked. Remarkably, the regional front even managed to transfer their respective vote banks to candidates of the alliance across the state. The electoral campaign of the grand alliance was pretty simple. While the soft-spoken Nitish Kumar harped on the development bandwagon, the more 'brash' Lalu took on the hard line, hitting out at the PM and his aide Amit Shah at regular intervals. Of course, the many blunders from the saffron camp including the failure to project a local leader, the beef controversy and the 'unwarranted' statements regarding reservations made by the RSS chief only gave more ammunition to the regional players.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) finished as the single largest party in the state assembly, winning 80 of the 101 seats it contested, its best tally in over a decade. The Janata Dal - United (JD-U) finished with a tally of 71 whereas the Congress seems to have been a big beneficiary of the verdict. The INC won nearly 70% of the total seats it contested.

For the BJP, its dream of a saffron government in Patna was crashed after its alliance finished with a paltry tally of 58 seats. The fact remains that in spite of the NDA's superlative performance in the 2014 General Elections, the saffron outfit was always the 'underdog' considering that the two regional parties had joined hands to counter it. The BJP tried to counter this by roping in the PM to address over 30 rallies in the state and roping in JD-U rebel and former CM Manjhi with an eye on the Extremely Backward Class votes. However, a spate of errors on its part, some of which I have already recounted above cost it dearly. Some of the leaders of the party or belonging to its affiliates only made the matters worse by raking up communal and casteist sentiments further strengthening the anti-NDA votes. Spoilers like the AIMIM, the SP and the NCP failed to make any considerable dent in the Opposition's tally. Moreover, Nitish's record as a 'capable' CM and the lack of any substantial anti-incumbency on the ground meant that the BJP was wiped off Bihar.

The charts displayed here are created using the free online tool - ChartGo (Link).

THE SPOILSPORTS

The Bihar elections has been touted as a two horse race between the incumbent CM Nitish Kumar led 'Grand Alliance' on one side and the Narendra Modi led National Democratic Alliance on the other. With most Opinion Polls predicting a neck to neck contest between the two sides, parties are trying hard to retain their 'traditional' vote banks while hoping to break into those of their rivals. From the development card to caste based politics to evoking religious sentiments, outfits are using every issue under the sun to strike a chord with the electorate and win what is turning out to be the most important polls since the last General Elections. However, with the two coalitions grabbing all the headlines, it is easy to overlook the other smaller parties or formations in the fray; while they may not win many seats, they sure can emerge as 'spoilsports' in their strongholds and at the end tilt the results in the favour of one side. Here is a look at the 'not-so-famous' parties or alliances that could play a crucial role in Bihar 2015. 

The Third Front: A golden rule of Indian politics is that 'You should never mess with Mulayum Singh Yadav'; the wrestler turned former CM of Uttar Pradesh is not known to forgive his detractors so easily. The leaders of the Grand Alliance were made aware of this when the SP supremo not only walked out of the Nitish led front but joined hands with the Pappu Yadav's JAM to float a rival coalition that threatens to wean away some votes that would have otherwise gone to the ruling combination. 

The 'Socialist Secular Morcha' as it is being termed is targeting the powerful Muslim - Yadav vote bank which till about a decade ago was the primary support base of Lalu Yadav. There is no doubt that Samajwadi Party (SP) supremo Mulayum is the tallest Yadav leader in the country and he is expected to wield some influence in western parts of Bihar, mainly in the district bordering UP. Besides, the presence of Pappu Yadav's Jan Adikhar Morcha (JAM) will boost the alliance's chances, particularly in his stronghold of Madhepura. The JAM founder certainly has a point to prove; after being expelled out of the RJD, he would want to make Lalu pay for it. In fact, it is believed that several RJD and JD-U leaders who have been denied tickets by their parties are in talks with the controversial politician ahead of the polls. Former Union Minister Nagamani's Samras Samaj Party (SSP), former Lok Sabha Speaker P A Sangma's Nationalist People's Party (NPP) and former Jhanjharpur MP Devendra Prasad Yadav's Samajwadi Janata Dal - Democratic (SJD-D) too are a part of this combination. 

Of course, it has not been all smooth sailing for this alliance. One of its major constituent - the NCP walked out of the Front citing differences with the SP. Ironcially, NCP leader Tariq Anwar was being projected as the Morcha's CM candidate. 

Nationalist Congress Party: The Sharad Pawar led outfit has certainly made a fool of itself in the Bihar assembly elections. In the beginning it was a part of the Nitih led 'Maha ghatbandhan' but walked out of it after it was given just three seats instead of the 12 that it has asked for. Next, it entered into a pre-poll tie up with the SP and was allocated over 40 seats to contest as a constituent of the Third Front. However, days before the second round of voting, the party snapped all ties with the coalition, accusing Mulayum Singh of being hand in glove with the BJP.  

Kathiar MP and party's Muslim face Tariq Anwar speaking to the media said that his outfit will contest 45 seats alone. The NCP will be a strong contender in the six assembly segments of Kathiar district of Bihar and will again eat into the votes of the Nitish - Lalu alliance. The extent of the damage it causes to the 'secular' parties needs to be seen.

The Left Front: Six Communist parties too are fighting the Bihar polls with the aim of providing a 'viable' alternative to the people as per Communist Party of India (CPI) General Secretary Prakash Karat. The other constituents of the alliance include the CPI-ML, the CPM, the RSP, the Forward Block and the Socialist Union of Communist India - Communist (SUCI-C). The coalition is believed to have substantial base Bhojpur and Beguserai regions of the state but it will be crucial to see if this translates into seats.

All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen: It turns out that all the hullabaloo surrounding Owaisi's debut in Bihar turned out to be a dud. Though he had earlier announced plans of contesting on seats from four districts in the Seemanchal region of the state, in a statement made this past week, the AIMIM chief has said that his outfit will only contest from six assembly seats. This move should come as a big relief for the mega coalition since it was believed that Owaisi could end up splitting the Muslim vote which till sometime back was said to be firmly behind Nitish and Lalu.

Shiv Sena: A partner in the government headed by the BJP in Maharashra, the Uddhav Thackeray led outfit's entry into the fray is likely to affect the chances of some NDA candidates in Bihar. The saffron outfit which is regularly in the news for harassing Bihari migrants in Mumbai is hoping to capitalize on disgruntled BJP leaders to help it open its account in the northern state. Though even opening its account will be a big achievement for the Sena, it could play the spoiler for the NDA on some closely fought seats.

Bahujan Samajwadi Party: Though the Mayawati led party once had representatives in the Bihar state assembly, today the BSP's prospects look bleak. The party on its part is contesting all 243 seats but it will take more than a miracle to even win a single seat. As per the plan, the BSP is targeting the Dalit and women voters to do well in the polls.

Jharkhand Mukhti Morcha: The Shibu Soren led JMM has some support base in parts of southern Bihar with significant tribal populations. The former Jharkhand CM will be banking on these votes to spring a surprise and win a few segments.

P.S: Of late, I have not been regularly updating this blog. Apart from work, the other reason is that I have started a new blog - Raajaniti (Link) dedicated to Indian politics. Henceforth, I will put up posts on this topic on both these blogs. 

Also, I would request you to check out the new blog and please provide your valuable feedback.

WILL CHANKYA'S NEETI WORK?

NITISH LED 'SECULAR' FRONT TO TAKE ON THE MODI BRIGADE

The JD-U supremo Nitish Kumar who is dubbed by several political analysts as the modern day 'Chanakya' of the Indian political spectrum, pulled off another major political coup earlier this week when his name was declared as the official chief ministerial nominee of the newly formed and 'loosely knit' Janata Parivaar (JP) for the upcoming Bihar polls. With the war of words between the leaders of the state's top two regional parties - the JD-U and the RJD escalating over the past two months, the announcement made by the Janata Parivaar's de-facto chief Mulayum Singh Yadav ended weeks of speculations of a possible break down in the anti-BJP plank even before the elections. In what seemed to be a well choreographed affair, the name of Nitish as the face of the alliance was proposed by none other than his friend turned foe turned friend - Lalu Yadav.

Check Mating Lalu: Like Kautaliya who crafted the downfall of the much powerful Nanda Empire by training his protégé Chandragupta Maurya in the fourth century BC, the incumbent CM too played his cards well in the race to be the 'face' of the grand alliance. Having deposed his self-appointed successor Jitam Ram Manjhi from the helm of affairs after the latter refused to be a mere puppet, Nitish knew very well that the move could hurt him electorally with a section of the influential Maha-Dalit community refusing to back him for having mistreated their leader. Moreover, the lessons of the September 2014 by-polls were not lost on him; for halting the Modi juggernaut it was essential to keep the mega coalition together. At the same time though, to salvage lost pride and to maintain political relevance, it was equally important for him to lead it. With Lalu in the equation and the bitter animosity between the two leaders since the mid 90s being a stuff of legends, this was not going to be easy. Though the RJD chief has been barred from contesting elections after being convicted in the Fodder Scam, he was, or rather he still is, not very keen to fight the polls under the leadership of his one time rival. The Yadav strong man is a master in the art of dirty politics and side lining him was going to be a herculean task within itself.

This is exactly where Nitish displayed his political acumen; fully aware that the Congress, in spite of its moribund state of affairs in Bihar would still play a decisive role in deciding the CM candidate of the coalition, the JD-U chief had a special audience with Rahul Gandhi on a visit to Delhi. It is believed that the Congress Vice President, unlike his mother does not have a good opinion of the RJD chief. On the other hand, he has been vocal about his admiration of Nitish. One can recollect several instances wherein the junior Gandhi had praised the Bihar CM for his secular credentials even while he was an integral part of the NDA. In fact, this move was a master stroke; soon after the meeting, reports from the Congress camp suggested that INC would align with the JD-U irrespective of whether Lalu was with it or not. With the Gandhis turning their back on Lalu, the path was more or less clear for Kumar to head the anti-BJP plank. Moreover, Nitish's image as the man who transformed Bihar from Lalu's 'Jungle Raj' to one of the fastest growing states in India only further strengthened his prospects for the top post. As such, as the leaders of the Janata Parivaar met to discuss the course of action for the polls, the odds were comprehensively stacked in the favor of Nitish, forcing the wily Lalu to eat the humble pie.

The Nitish v/s Modi saga continues: With Kumar leading the mega coalition, the second part of the Modi - Nitish rivalry is all set to be played in the state of Bihar this winter. After walking out of the NDA over the candidature of the then Gujarat CM as the NDA candidate for the post of the Prime Minister, the Bihar CM was left with a bloody nose as Modi mania swept Bihar in May 2014, relegating the JD-U to a ignominious tally of two parliamentary seats. In a bid to save his face, Kumar resigned and handed power to his hand picked successor Jitin Ram Manjhi to appease the Maha Dalit community which voted for the BJP in the General Elections. In the mean time, following the realignment of the political forces in Bihar, Nitish and his new found allies - the RJD and the Congress managed to edge past the BJP by winning 6 of the 10 seats that went for the by-polls, a consolation victory of sorts. Ironically though, months later, as Manjhi transformed from a 'docile' leader into a 'clever' politician refusing to be 'controlled' by his party boss, Nitish expelled him from the JD-U and was himself back as the Bihar CM for the third time. With back to back political blunders, many were wondering if Nitish's astute acumen has deserted him and if his reign as Bihar's most powerful leader were numbered. And the man behind Nitish's unraveling was none other than his bete noire - Narendra Modi.

The Bihar polls is the perfect platform for Bihar CM to settle scores with the PM. A victory for the Janata Parivaar would be a jolt to the Modi bandwagon which hit a major road block when the AAP decimated the saffron party in Delhi earlier this year. A win would help Nitish regain most of the political pride that he had lost in the last two years and would re-establish him as a force to reckon with besides being a major fillip to the merger of the factions of the JP. However, there is a much bigger prize to be won, something that most political analysts have over looked thus far; after the General Polls, there is no 'credible' face to represent the anti-Modi or the non-NDA parties in the political sphere. The most obvious and legitimate choice to fill in this vacancy - Sonia Gandhi is not keeping well whereas the negativity still surrounding Rahul means that most believe that he is not yet 'mature' enough for the job. Regional satraps like Jayalalithaa and Patnaik who managed to fend off the Modi wave in their respective home turfs have been on cordial terms with the new government. Mamata Bannerjee has of late mellowed her anti-Modi rhetoric. The mess around AAP in the recent months has hit Arvind Kejriwal's popularity; the party's influence has not moved beyond the NCR in spite of that fabulous victory in February. A victory for the JP under Nitish would automatically catapult him to being the new anti-Modi face in Indian politics.

The Ground Realities: Though the coalition may have been announced, it remains to be seen how the talks regarding the seat sharing arrangements between the many constituents of this grand alliance progress in the coming weeks. Though the issue of the CM candidate has been settled for now, the basis for seat allocation has become another pain point for the two parties. The RJD wants the 2014 General Elections to be the basis to arrive at the seat sharing formula whereas the JD-U wants it to be the 2010 state polls. A bigger worry for the leaders of the alliance is whether their cadre and workers at the ground level are able to forget all the past differences and work together as a team. Considering the 'hatred' that the JD-U and the RJD have shared in the past, that seems to be a near impossible task. And lastly, will the alliance be able to break the caste barrier? For example, will a Yadav who has a loyal voter of the RJD for decades now vote for a JD-U nominee contesting as a candidate of the JP from his seat? Considering that the Yadavs harbour a special dislike for Kumar for ending their political dominance in Bihar, will they be comfortable with him as the CM candidate? Moreover, it remains to be seen how much damage will the Manjhi mishap cost in terms of the Extremely Backward Caste (EBC) votes. Surely, the modern day 'Chanakya' will have to put in all the 'Neeti' and perhaps, even some 'Kutneeti' to score a memorable hat-trick! 

2015: THE POLLS TO LOOK OUT FOR...

What an year 2014 has been. After 'misgoverning' the nation, especially in its second term, India's grand old party was taught a lesson that it will, rather it should never forget. The Congress that has ruled the country for nearly six decades, was reduced to a tally of 44 seats, the lowest in its 130 year long 'illustrious' history. The mother and son duo of Sonia and Rahul Gandhi tried to put on a brave face late that afternoon on the day of the results with Baba who spearheaded his party's spineless campaign, even smiling for the cameras as if 'nothing great had happened'. As if to rub salt into their wounds, the BJP under its controversial yet charismatic leader Narendra Modi edged past the halfway mark on its own, signalling the end of an era of unholy alliances and 'quid pro quo' politics that had lasted for nearly three decades. As the Modi wave raged on, regional satraps were swept away; leaders like Mulayum Singh Yadav, Nitish Kumar and Sharad Pawar were routed except in their boroughs while those like Mayawati were not even able to open their accounts. Of course, there were some notable exceptions; the likes of Jayalalitha, Mamta and Navin managed to keep the saffron forces at bay.

As far as the state polls are concerned, the BJP seems to have picked up from its superlative performance from December last year where it retained Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh while ending up as the single largest party in the capital. Months after that victory in the general polls, the BJP won over 120 seats in Maharashtra, nearly twice as much as its estranged ally, the Shiv Sena. As the two saffron parties patched up, Devendra Fadnavis was sworn in as the CM of the western state. Up north, the party created history yet again as it won a simple majority in Haryana in a poll that saw the incumbent INC being a distant third. Few months later, the BJP led alliance grabbed pole position in Jharkhand and swept Jammu though it fell behind the PDP by 3 seats in the final tally. In Andhra, it was the return of Chandrababu Naidu whereas his once bitter rival K C Chandrashekar Rao became the first CM of the newly created state of Telangana. The only consolation for the Congress was a win in the Arunachal assembly elections. Meanwhile, Odisha's Navin Patnaik and Sikkim's Pawan Kumar Chamling held their respective fortresses in spite of the emergence of strong opposition from newer forces in their backyards.

So after a cracking year that saw seismic shifts in the entire political landscape of the country, what does the upcoming year have for us. The first state to go for polls in 2015 will be Delhi that has been under President's Rule ever since Arvind Kejriwal resigned from the post of the CM following a tenure that lasted less than fifty days and was marred by several unwanted controversies. The AAP that made a blunder by opting out of the government in the national capital is hoping to put the ghost of 2014 General Polls in the past and regain the trust of the masses, something that pundits believe will be easier said than done. While the Congress continues to be a non-entity here, like in most parts of the country, the BJP is hopeful that Modi mania and AAP's track record will help it get the required numbers.

However, the polls to watch out for will be elections to the Bihar state assembly. After registering an impressive tally in the May where it won 32 of the 40 parliamentary seats, the NDA was in for a shock as the grand alliance of the ruling JD-U, the RJD and the Congress managed to salvage some pride by winning six of the 10 assembly segments where by-polls were held in August, earlier this year. The next state elections will be the true test of the new found bon homie between former bitter rivals - Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav. A victory for these former strongmen will have a tremendous repercussion on the politics of the country apart from reviving their individual political careers. In case the partnership does well, you can expect several other regional competitors to join hands in a bid to thwart the BJP which is emerging as a relevant player even in places where it earlier had marginal presence. A saffron win though will only further strengthen the aura surrounding the incumbent PM and further strengthen the BJP.

And then, there are some more states where the incumbent regimes seem to be shaky and snap polls could be held next year. The drama over the government formation is likely to continue over the next few weeks in Jammu Kashmir. Even if a coalition government is cobbled up in Srinagar, serious political differences between partners could force the governor to dissolve the assembly and ask the parties to seek a fresh mandate. Such fears are also emerging from Goa where Parrikar's departure has changed the political scenario in the state in spite of the fact that the BJP has a simple majority on its own; the state's deputy CM Francis D'Souza could raise the banner of revolt yet again and put the Parsekar government in minority in the house. In Jharkhand, the AJSU which has 5 seats could keep the BJP on tenterhooks and pull out of the government if its timely demands are not met. Perhaps, Assam could also go to polls in 2015 if the Congress fails to contain the rebellion brewing against Tarun Gogoi for some time.

Apart from state polls, here are the other big developments to watch out for in Indian polity as we usher in the new year.

(1) During the course of the high voltage campaign, Modi promised a lot of things to the electorate and a nation that had been let down by its political masters for five long years immediately gravitated towards the BJP. Now that the saffron outfit has comprehensively won the polls and the honeymoon period is over, the masses are eagerly awaiting for the big ticket reforms to be passed. Besides, with the entire opposition benches joining hands, it will be interesting to see how the incumbent regime manages to pass key legislations, especially in the Rajya Sabha where it lacks the necessary numbers.

(2) Following their phenomenal performance in the big polls, the BJP registered big gains in four of the seven states where elections were held in 2014. With Delhi and Bihar going to polls in the next few months, can the saffron outfit carry its good form into 2015? Bihar is particularly important since it will see the new look NDA take on the grand alliance consisting of the JD-U, the RJD and the Congress after the skirmishes that occurred between the two side over the last year.

(3) The last few months have been the worst in the history of the INC. After being beaten in state after state, we need to see if the new year can bring some good luck for the Congress. Also, we will see whether Rahul Gandhi has learnt from his past mistakes and has the ability to take the party forward, though many of the loyalists seem to have already given up on him.

(4) 2015 will be a crucial one for the latest avataar of the Janata Parivaar too. Apart from the Bihar elections where this new alliance has a lot at stake, we will see if the stalwarts including Mulayum, Lalu and Nitish can gulp their egos, overlook their past differences and stay together at the cost of their personal ambitions.

(5) Former CM Arvind Kejriwal and his party, the AAP are expected to come out all guns blazing to salvage some lost pride in the Delhi elections; however, regain the confidence of the people in the capital will be extremely difficult. The likes of Jaya, Mamata and Navin who did remarkably well in the general polls had their own share of controversies in 2014. While Jaya was briefly behind bars in the DA case, Mamata and Navin were busy fire fighting allegations against their confidantes in the Sharddha scam. What is in store for these regional bigwigs is something to look out for.

WILL BIHAR STOP THE MODI MANIA?

AUGUST BY-POLLS WILL BE THE FIRST REAL TEST OF MODI SARKAR

Courtesy: Times of India

It has been nearly 100 days since Narendra Modi led the BJP to a handsome victory in the May 2014 General Elections. The magnitude of the win was such that a lot was expected from the former Gujarat CM after he shifted his base to New Delhi. With 282 seats in the Lower House of the Parliament, many thought that the new regime would pass certain key reforms since it was free from all sort of 'political compulsions' that the previous Central governments were subjected to by their allies. A look back at Modi's innings so far reveals that his report card has been average so far. On one side, the Centre has taken a firm stand on our Foreign Policy. The recent cancellation of Secretary level talks with Pakistan apart, the invitation to the SAARC Head of States at the time of Modi's swearing in and his visits to Bhutan and Nepal indicate a clear thought process in India's dealings with other nations in the neighborhood, something that the UPA regime hopelessly lacked. His interaction with the soldiers posted in Jammu Kashmir recently too has been appreciated. The markets also have responded well. However, one should also remember that the recent spike in incidents of communal clashes coupled with irresponsible statements made by some in the BJP and the Sangh Parivar has raised doubts about the intentions of Modi Sarkar. Prices of certain essential commodities continue to remain high whereas crime against women have increased to rise in recent months. At this juncture, the by-polls in four states will be a good indication to see if the Modi mania that had gripped the nation at least for the first half of the year continues to remain strong or not. Besides, with the recent realignment of political forces in Bihar, the results of these elections will also have a major impact on the strategies that the parties adopt in the next four months wherein at least four states will go to the polls.

With Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav joining hands, the political equations in the state of Bihar have been completely redrawn. The NDA's superlative performance here in May this year where it won 31 out of the 40 seats has raised serious question mark over the political future of the two former CMs of the state. With the JD-U being reduced to mere two seats, many believed that the Kurmi leader's decision to part ways with the BJP was a political blunder and the move would herald his downfall. Similarly, question marks were being raised about Lalu Yadav's relevance in state politics after the RJD could only bag 5 seats in spite of an alliance with the Congress. Aware of the fact that they had to work together to save their political careers, two of Bihar's biggest politicians dissolved their differences spanning nearly two decades and joined forces to combat a resilient saffron outfit which is looking much stronger following the May results. The Congress too decided to lent its support to the cause of thwarting the Modi bandwagon. In fact, this rather 'unholy' alliance has already won a few skirmishes with the NDA. After the resignation of Nitish Kumar as the CM of the state following the JD-U's rout in the Lok Sabha, the three parties worked together to make sure that the new government under the leadership of Jitan Ram Manjhi would survive the test on the floor of the state assembly. Moreover, the allies also fought the elections to the Upper House of the Parliament together and won.

With ten seats namely Narkatiaganj, Rajnagar, Jale, Chapra, Hajipur, Mohiuddinagar, Parbatta, Bhagalpur Banka and Mohania on the line, the Bihar by-polls will for sure be as intensely fought as the General Elections three months ago. In fact, the bearing that the results may have on the political scenario of Bihar is unprecedented, considering the fact that the state is scheduled to go to polls next year. Firstly, having jumped into the electoral fray together, the results will indicate if the masses have given their consent to the JD(U)-RJD combine. If the two new partners do well, they would contemplate continuing the alliance in the next state assembly elections too. On the other hand, a flop show would put serious question mark over the future of this partnership. Actually, several leaders in the JD-U have already hit out at Nitish for sealing the deal with the same party which he had earlier accused of hampering the growth of the state when it was in power. Similarly, the by-polls will also be an acid test for saffron leader Sushil Kumar Modi. With PM Narendra Modi not campaigning in the state, the outcome will also prove if the former Home Minister has the mettle and the support base to lead the saffron outfit in 2015. Finally, the victory of the former Kumar and Yadav, that is if it comes true, could also start a new trend in the country wherein regional rivals open up a united front against the BJP. The RJD supremo had already asked Mayawatiand Mulayum Singh Yadav to join hands to prevent the rise of the 'Fascist forces' in Lucknow, an idea which was considered by the SP chief but flatly rejected by Behenji. A good showing by the 'Mandal forces' may force the Dalit icon to rethink her decision.

Down south, in Karnataka, it is the Congress which is on the back foot. After registering a massive victory in the 2013 elections to the Vidhan Soudha when it swept away all the Opposition, the INC was delivered a rude shock as the BJP, now reinforced with the merger of the KJP and the BSR Congress into it, won nearly twice as many seats as the grand old party. The victory of former CM B S Yeddyurappa from Shimoga and his former cabinet colleague B S Sriramalu from Bellary has necessitated polls in the Shikaripura and Bellary(Rural) respectively. The third seat - Chikkodi-Sadalga was won by the Congress candidate Prakash Hukkeri who too made the cut to the Lok Sabha. The by-elections have become a prestige issue for CM Siddaramaih who has campaigned extensively in the three seats after there were rumors of discontent against him within the party. Though he may enjoy the complete faith of president Sonia Gandhi, he would prefer to silence his critics within the Congress ranks. With the Deve Gowda led JD-S refusing to field any candidates citing paucity of funds, the fight is between the two major national parties. Having been made the party's national vice president few days ago, it remains to be seen if the former KJP chief could pass on the electoral baton to his son B S Raghavendra who is contesting the polls as a BJP candidate. Likewise, the saffron nominee from Bellary is Sriramalu aide Obalesh. Besides the incumbent CM, the by-polls are also important for the two saffron leaders.

Like Siddaramaih, Punjab CM Parkash Singh Badal too is jittery ahead of the by-elections to the seats of Talwandi-Salboo and Patiala. If the results of the General Elections are anything to go by, the Akalis are certainly going to have a tough time in winning the two seats. If there was one party in the NDA which will be disappointed after the May 16 results, it has to be the SAD. Strong anti-incumbency against the Punjab government was the reason that the NDA could only win six of the 13 parliamentary seats from the north-western state. In fact, after the defeat of the Finance minister Arun Jaitley from Amritsar, Akali leader Naresh Gujral was frank enough to admit that the DDCA chief was paying the price for the failure of the incumbent regime. Meanwhile, the resignation of former CM Captain Amarinder Singh from the Patiala constituency following his victory over Jaitley and the defection of Talwandi-Sabo MLA Jeet Mohinder Singh to the SAD camp has resulted in the by-polls for the two constituencies. For both, the Badals as well as the Congress, a victory will be more of a morale booster since the incumbent regime has the necessary numbers on its side. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) which surprised everyone by bagging four parliamentary seats here will be the one to watch out for. It remains to be seen if the recent turmoil within the AAP will harm its chances in the only state where it is presently strong.

Lastly, elections will also be held for three seats - Vijayraghavgarh, Bahoriband and Agar in Madhya Pradesh. After sweeping the state late last year and winning a large majority of seats in the parliamentary polls, the saffron outfit is expected to bag all three seats. However, the multi-crore entrance scam came in the limelight has become a major embarrassment for MP CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan and his party. After filing a defamation case against Congress spokesperson K K Mishra is looking to extract revenge on the INC which is using this as an issue to make a comeback. And what better way to do this than winning these by-polls. As if the allegations from the Opposition benches were not enough, Union Minister and Shivraj's rival within the saffron camp - Uma Bharati too had demanded a probe into the entire fiasco. All these things apart, the BJP is expected to win all of these constituencies like it did in the last state elections. Meanwhile, the results of the by-elections in MP and other states will be out on 25^th August.

For more on the August-September 2014 By-polls, click here (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Times of India
Original: Times of India - Regrouped Lalu, Nitish take on BJP in Bihar bypoll today (Link)

BIHAR & LOK SABHA 2014

NDA vs UPA vs THIRD FRONT

The 2014 General Elections in Bihar in many ways, personifies the whole national picture. Many believe that there are three broad formations that are capable of forming the next government in the country. The ruling UPA regime led by the Congress, having ruled the country for two consecutive terms, is the first contender for power. The BJP led NDA is hoping to make a strong comeback under the leadership of a combative Narendra Modi. And then there is the 'Third Front', a confederation of regional satraps keen to keep the tow national parties out of power (Link). While my views on this are known, there are still a few, who buy this idea. Now, coming back to Bihar, you can see that it is one of the few states where all of these three coalitions are strong. The Congress and Lalu Yadav's RJD have renewed their friendship which had been shattered prior to the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. After a bitter, public divorce with Nitish, the BJP has managed to get Paswan's LJP and RLSP on their side. Meanwhile, the incumbent CM has been one of the torch bearers of the much-hyped 'Federal Front'. With 40 seats on the line, there is no doubt that the Bihar polls will be one of the most closely fought states in 2014.

ISSUES

(1) The Bihar Growth Model: Muck like Modi, Nitish Kumar never misses any opportunity to talk about his 'Bihar Model' of development. There is no doubt that the state has made tremendous progress in the last nine years under the incumbent CM. The law and order situation which had worsened when the RJD was in power has improved, giving a fillip to industrial growth. The poverty rate has reduced while the literacy figures has gone northward. The issue is going to be the plank on which the JD-U will fight the elections.

(2) Anti-incumbency: After nearly a decade in office, there is no doubt that the JD-U is facing a strong anti-incumbency wave. At many of his rallies and road shows, the Bihar CM has been greeted with black flags and angry demonstrators. Much like the regime in the state, the Congress-led UPA too is facing the heat. The grand old party has failed miserably in tackling corruption and the economy too has weakened over the years. Having pulled out of the Bihar government, the BJP is hopeful that incumbency will not be an issue for it.

(3) The Clash of Personalities: In many ways, the upcoming General Elections is going to be a 'Battle Royale' between three big personalities in Indian politics. On one hand it is the Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who has made his national ambitions pretty clear over the last few weeks. The RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav is a wounded tiger who is perhaps fighting the most crucial polls in his political career. And then there Narendra Modi. Having been kept out of Bihar earlier due to opposition from the Nitish camp, the Gujarat CM has a point to prove. If reports are to be believed, there is a lot of support for BJP's PM nominee on the ground.

(4) Special Status: Nitish Kumar has raised the demand for 'Special Status' for Bihar on many platforms. The JD-U believes that the special economic package will be help solve all the problems that plague the state. In fact,  has also said that he will ally with anybody who grants this key demand of this.

(5) Vote Bank Politics: The RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav is the master of caste and religion based politics. For years, he depended on the Muslim-Yadav combine to win elections. However, in the last decade, his vote base has eroded considerably. Lalu is hopeful that the anti-incumbency will help him woo back the Yadavs whereas the 'fear' of Modi will lead to consolidation of the Muslims in favor of the UPA. Nitish Kumar is fighting hard to retain the OBC and the EBC (Extremely Backward Caste) votes. One of the reasons for his ugly split with the BJP was to retain the minority votes. Will the gamble pay off? The Upper Caste has stood by the BJP for long. The LJP will help it to get a chunk of the Dalit too behind the NDA.

CONTENDERS

(1) Janata Dal - United (JD-U): After severing ties with the BJP on the candidature of Modi as the PM nominee of the NDA, nothing seems to be going in the favor of Nitish Kumar. While Paswan has joined hands with the BJP, the Congress preferred Lalu over him. While on one hand he is facing anti-incumbency on the ground, several of his close aides including N K Singh and Sabir Ali have deserted him. It is pretty clear that the Bihar CM has national dreams. However for that to happen, the JD-U has to win at least 20 seats. In my opinion, that is impossible. Although it is in alliance with the CPI, there is no doubt that Nitish is facing tough competition from the NDA as well as the UPA. Amongst the candidates declared so far are party president Sharad Yadav (Madhepur), film-maker Prakash Jha (West Champaram) and industrialist Anil Kumar Sharma (Jehanabad).

(2) The NDA: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is going all out in Bihar with its leader Narendra Modi attending several rallies here. I believe that there are two reasons for this. First of course, the saffron outfit wants to do well in the state that elects 40 sends to the Parliament. Secondly, after the JD-U broke off its 17 year old friendship with the NDA, Bihar has become a 'prestige issue' for the party. The saffron camp is banking on its two Modis to get it the votes. Moreover, the party has managed to get two new allies - Paswan's LJP and Kushwaha's RLSP on its side. As per the arrangement with its new-found partners, the saffron outfit will contest 30 seats here. Some high profile names from the BJP who have been given tickets include Rajiv Pratap Rudy (Saran), Shahnawaz Hussain (Bhagalpur) and Kriti Azad (Darbhanga).

Who would have expected, say two months ago that Ramvilas Paswan - the political 'Joker' of state politics would join hands with the BJP. After drawing a blank in the 2009 polls and witnessing a massive erosion in its vote base across Bihar, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) now wants to piggy-bank on the NaMo wave to stay relevant. For the BJP, the re-entry of Paswan into the NDA is highly 'symbolic'. Considering that the LJP chief was the first constituent of the Vajpayee cabinet to withdraw support following the 2002 riots, the move is a sort of endorsement of the fact that parties are ready to forget the past and work with the saffron brigade. Secondly, by wooing Paswan away from both, the JD-U and the INC-RJD combine, the BJP has made a strong statement. The alliance is likely to help the NDA get a fair share of the Dalit votes in Bihar. Amongst the party's candidates are Ramvilas Paswan (Hajipur), his brother Ramachandra Paswan (Samastipura) and son Chirag (Jamui).

The third member of the BJP led coalition in the state is the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP). Formed by OBC leader and former Rajya Sabha MP Upendra Kushwaha in 2013 following his differences with Nitish, the party will contest three seats. The RLSP chief has jumped into the fray from Karkat.

(3) The UPA: Whether you like it or not, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) looks to be on a comeback trail. After being humiliated, first in 2009 Lok Sabha and then in the 2010 state elections, a brief jail term for his involvement in the Fodder Scam, the ‘betrayal’ of Paswan and most importantly, the break-up of the JD(U)-BJP alliance, the former Bihar strongman Lalu Prasad Yadav is aiming to take his tally beyond the 2 digit mark. A spark of the Lalu of yesteryears was visible when he marched to the house of the Speaker of the state assembly with 9 of his 13 'rebel MLAs' in a rickshaw, accusing him of trying to protect the JD-U regime by splitting the RJD. While Yadav may have been debarred from contesting the polls following a court verdict, the party has given tickets to his wife Rabri Devi (Saran), daughter Misa (Patliputra), controversial politician Mohammad Shahbuddin’s wife Hina Shabab (Siwan) and former ministers like Raghuvansh Prasad Yadav (Vaishali) and Mohammad Taslimuddin (Araria). Unhappy after being denied the Patliputra seat, Lalu’s close aide Ram Kripal Yadav has joined the BJP and will contest from here against Misa.

While the Congress has been a fringe player in Bihar for more than two decades, it had an important decision to make ahead of the General Elections - whether to ally with the 'secular' JD-U or rekindle its romance with Lalu. While it chose to join hands with the RJD, this decision could end up impacting the results of at least 5 to 10 seats in the state. Besides Lok Sabha Speaker Meena Kumari (Sasaram), the party has fielded former IPS officer and Kerala governor Nikhil Kumar from Aurangabad.

The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) will fight one seat as a part of the UPA.

PAST PERFORMANCES

In 2004, when the Congress fought the elections in association with Paswan and Lalu Prasad, the UPA swept the state, winning over 70 percent of the parliamentary seats. The NDA was finished with a tally of just 11. However, in the state polls that were fought a year later, the LJP played a spoiler as he refused to ally with the INC and the RJD. As the electorate delivered a fractured mandate, the BJP-JD(U) coalition performed slightly better than the INC-RJD combine. With Paswan refusing to join either of the two fronts, Bihar went for the polls, for the second time later that year. This time though, there was a clear winner. The NDA bagged an impressive 143 seats; Nitish Kumar was sworn in as the Chief Minister. In 2009, the ruling combine bagged 32 of the total 40 seats. The Congress which fought the polls alone after being snubbed by Lalu won 2 seats. Meanwhile, the RJD was reduced to 4 whereas Paswan was not able to even open his account. In the following year, the JD-U and the BJP carried on their good performance, winning an unprecedented landslide victory. Their tally exceeded 200 seats. The RJD, the INC and the LJP were virtually wiped off.

Political Party	2010 SE	2009 LE	Dec. 2005 SE	Feb. 2005 SE	2004 LE
Janata Dal - United (JD-U)	115	20	88	55	6
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	91	12	55	37	5
Lok Janshakti Party (LJP)	3	-	10	29	4
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)	22	4	54	75	22
Congress (INC)	4	2	9	10	3
Others	8	2	27	37	-

(1) Bihar elects 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha.
(2) The state has 243 seats in the Legislative assembly.

MY PREDICTIONS

The Modi wave is strong in Bihar and the alliance with Paswan's LJP and RLSP is going to further help the BJP. I expect the NDA to finish with a tally of over 20 seats. The RJD is on a comeback and the pre-poll accord with the Congress will help the UPA to win up to 12 seats. All thanks to anti-incumbency and an ugly split with the BJP, the JD(U) will be lucky to even cross the 2 digit mark.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	NDA (BJP + LJP + RLSP)	21-25
2	UPA (INC + RJD)	9-13
3	JD-U	5-9
4	Others	1-2

WATCH OUT

(1) The future of the Bihari Babus: The 2014 General Elections will in many ways decide the future of three of the tallest leaders in the state.

The incumbent CM will be watching the elections closely. Having severed the 17 year old ties with the BJP, Nitish Kumar looks extremely weak. The anti-incumbency factor is strong and the Bihar growth story is crumbling. Since the state will go for polls next year, there is no doubt that the big polls will certainly have an impact on them. If the JD-U performs badly, at least that is what I have predicted, then Nitish will find it almost impossible to claim a hat trick.

While Nitish is on a sticky wicket, the polls of 2014 could well seal the fate of Lalu Prasad Yadav and his party, the RJD. Having been decimated, election after election, both in the state and Centre and having been indicted by the courts in the Fodder scam, the former CM is fighting for political relevance. For a politician like Lalu who relied on caste-based politics, rather than development for winning elections, the clock seems to be ticking. If the RJD supremo fails to make an impact in 2014, he will be finished. However, if Lalu can win over 10 seats, his party will emerge stronger in 2014.

The big elections could be a knock out punch for Ram Vilas Paswan and his LJP. Having draw a blank in 2009 and finishing with a meager tally of 3 seats in the last state assembly polls, Paswan has to at least win one seat. The former Railway Minister has taken a big gamble by returning back to the NDA. Will it pay-off? We need to wait till the counting for this.

(2) Switching Loyalties: While the BJP-LJP and INC-RJD alliances have been announced, the scenario could be very different after the results are announced. If the UPA manages to be the largest group post elections, it will not take much for the LJP to join hands with the Congress. Also, in that scenario, the JD-U may extend a helping hand, provided Lalu is out of the picture. If the NDA ends up in pole position, one cannot rule out the fact that JD-U might rejoin the NDA, especially if the saffronists are ready to grant 'Special Status' to Bihar. In fact, except for BJP-Congress or BJP-RJD, all other permutations and combinations can be expected.

(3) The Sons and Daughters: The General Elections will also see the emergence of the second generation of leaders in Bihar from well-established political families. The RJD has given a ticket to Misa Yadav, the eldest daughter of the party supremo from Patliputra. Besides, his young son and political successor Tejaswi Yadav has given up his cricketing career to help his dad do well. Like the younger Yadav, Chirag Paswan has bid adieu to his Bollywood dreams to campaign for his party. He was said to be instrumental in the LJP's alliance with the BJP. 

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

ENGAME LALU?

THE POLITICS IN BIHAR IN THE ABSENCE OF LALU

Courtesy: India Today

With all attempts of the government to overrule the judgment of the Supreme Court pertaining to convicted politicians biting the dust, following mass public anger and of course ‘timely’ intervention by Rahul Gandhi, Lalu Prasad Yadav – the chief of the RJD and the former CM of Bihar became the first politician to be disqualified from the Parliament after being found guilty in the Fodder Scam. With this political heavyweight behind the bars for four years and unable to contest elections for the next six years (unless he gets relief from a higher court), it seems that it is the end of the road, both for the former Bihar strongman and his party. Lalu was hoping to rebuild his declining political fortunes after the break-up of the 17 year old alliance between the JD(U) and the BJP which had made him virtually irrelevant, first in state politics and then significantly reduced his influence at the Centre. In fact, the stunning victory of his candidate over the ruling combine’s nominee in the Maharajganj by poll by a margin of over one lakh votes was seen by many as the beginning of the RJD resurgence. However, with Yadav now languishing in the Birsa Munda in Jharkhand and Nitish breaking off all ties the NDA, the race for the 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state is heating up.

A product of the protest against Emergency, Lalu is believed to have been close to JP. You see, even great leaders make blunders. In 1990, he burst into the limelight when he was made the CM of the state as a consensus candidate after disagreement between two factions of the Janata Party. A leader of the Yadav caste, he won the support of the Muslims after he arrested Lal Krishan Advani on route to Ayodhya during the Babri Masjid movement. With the backing of this MY (Muslim Yadav) support base, he emerged as a key player in the murky politics of New Delhi in the mid and late 90s. In fact, when he was sent in association with the Fodder Scam in 1998, he broke away from the Janata Dal to launch his own party – the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). As he was sent to jail, he audaciously made his wife Rabri the CM, remote controlling the affairs of Bihar from behind the bars. In 2000, in spite of the odds, he romped home to victory in Patna, with the help of the Left and the Congress. In 2004, he won 24 seats in the Lok Sabha, emerging as the second largest constituent member of the Congress led UPA. Yadav was made the Railway Minister; under him the department made profits for the first time in years without raising the prices. This was the highest point of his political career.

It seems that at around this time, power started going into his head. Taking the people for granted, no worthwhile development was recorded in Bihar in the Lalu era. Poverty continued to remain high, no jobs were created; crime rate was high whereas literacy was quite low. In the February 2005 state polls, as the public delivered a fractured mandate, the RJD and its allies fell well short of the majority. In the re-poll held some months later, Lalu was crushed as he ended up as on the third spot. The JD(U) and the BJP formed a coalition government under the leadership of Lalu’s bête noire Nitish Kumar. With Kumar delivering on fronts where Yadav failed in his regime, Bihar began recording significant growth. As the state marched ahead, Lalu was left far behind. After talks with Congress about seat sharing in the 2009 parliamentary elections failed, he joined hands with his rival Mulayum and another political joker – LJP’s Paswan to form the Fourth Front. The move backfired as his outfit bagged just 4 seats whereas the UPA came back to power with ease. After losing on his home turf, this embarrassing loss reduced his influence in Delhi. 2010 brought more bad news, the JD(U)-BJP combine won with more than three fourth of the seats, reducing the RJD to mere 22 with Rabri losing both the seats she contested. Many believed that the infamous split in the NDA could just be the opportunity that Lalu needed to re-invent himself in Bihar. However, with the jail sentence, it seems that it is a rather gloomy and a fitting end to an otherwise colourful career, based on caste based politics.

The end of Lalu and break-up of the JD(U) and the BJP has opened up the game. In Bihar which sends as many as 40 MPs to Lok Sabha - the third highest amongst the states, the fight is heating up and one can expect key political developments to take place in the run up to 2014 General Elections. The Nitish led JD(U) which broke all relations with the BJP is aiming to get the support of the Muslims. With several Congress leaders, including Rahul praising Kumar for his secular credentials, an alliance between the two cannot be ruled out. Reports suggest that UPA may have sacrificed Lalu to win the favour of the Bihar CM. The problem here could be the other JD(U) stalwart Sharad Yadav whose politics has been based on the anti-Congress plank. Meanwhile, in case neither the NDA nor the UPA are in a position to form the next government in New Delhi, the outfit will emerge as one of the architects of the Third Front and Nitish may well be the next PM of the country. The BJP is another strong player here; while enjoying the support of the Thakurs, it is also woo the Yadavs hard. After RaGa’s dream of a Congress revival in Bihar in 2010 ended in a disaster, the INC on its own is not in a position to pose any challenge. However, if it joins hand with the JD(U), things will be dramatically different. Allying with the RJD might be suicidal and LJP is in dire straits. Ram Vilas Paswan is virtually out of the race and it will be a miracle if he manages to get more than one seat.

Meanwhile, Tejaswi Yadav, the younger son of the RJD supremo is speculated to take over the party in 2014. Rabri has already said that she and her son will ‘manage’ the party, like ‘Sonia and Rahul’. Didn’t anybody tell her that INC was in a mess? The duo will try to leverage the sympathy factor to their advantage. And in a country like ours, it might work well. However, Tejaswi is new to politics. After warming the benches of the IPL side Delhi Daredevils for several seasons, this cricket enthusiast will find it difficult to make a mark for him, at a time when his family is well past its prime. Rabri’s dual defeats in the last election polls have signaled an end to her political ambitions. One should not be surprised in case, several leaders of the RJD, shift their allegiance to other outfits. However, the wily fox that he is, Lalu can never be written off. Remember his famous line ‘Jab tak hain Samose mein aloo, tab tak rahega Bihar mein Lalu’. In case, he comes out of jail before the elections, the wounded tiger will be stronger and more determined to do well. Even otherwise, while it may not be a force to reckon with in the absence of Yadav, the RJD is not history, at least not yet.

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: India Today
Original: India Today - Fodder Scam Verdict likely to put abrupt full stop to Lalu's illustrious career (Link)