UTTARAKHAND & LOK SABHA 2014

WHICH WAY WILL THE HILL STATE SWING?

In 2012, the hill state of Uttarakhand witnessed perhaps the closest state elections since the one held in Goa ten years ago (Link). The BJP which was in power brought back B C Khanduri fearful of the numerous corruption allegations against the incumbent CM Pokhriyal. The 'Khanduri hain Zarori' campaign of the saffron party almost worked. On the other hand, the Congress made life difficult for itself thanks to all the infighting amongst its several state leaders. Luckily for it though, it managed to finish with one more seat than the BJP as Khanduri himself lost his from his constituency (Link). The INC did form the government and the party high command hand picked Vijay Bahuguna - the MP from Tehri Garhwal to lead the state. However, the friction amongst state party leaders continued as the CM's son lost the Tehri Garhwal by-polls in 2012. Then came the big blow last years as parts of the state were devastated by cloud burst. With the state government coming under attack from various quarters for its shrody implementation of relief work, the party replaced Bahuguna by Harish Singh Rawat (Link). Will this gamble pay-off or does the BJP hold the edge before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. That is the subject of this post.

ISSUES

(1) The 2013 floods: In June 2013, the state of Uttarakhand received heavy rains causing floods mainly concentrated around the holy town of Kedarnath. The disaster caused mainly due to disregards to environmental issues completely destroyed the holy town and nearly 6000 people are presumed to be dead. The calamity has caused damages worth crores of rupees and has also adversely affected tourism - an important source of livelihood for the people here. The efforts of the state government in rehabilitating people has come under severe criticism. This is expected to be a major poll issue.

(2) Anti-incumbency of UPA II: The disastrous performance of the UPA government is the poll plank of the BJP in the hill state. The saffron outfit is highlighting the short comings of the incumbent government including corruption, price rise and inflation. Besides, the party is also trying to cash in the Modi wave to get the votes.

CONTENDERS

(1) Congress: In 2009, Uttarakhand was one state where the INC white washed the BJP 5-0. Three years later, it managed to scrap through and form the government in Dehradun too. However, after that hard fought win nothing has gone in its favor. The INC is hopeful that the change in regime will somehow work in its favor. However, it was dealt a severe blow when its MP Satpal Maharaj left the INC and joined the saffron camp. In true Congress tradition, the grand old party has given tickets to former CM Bahuguna's son Saket Bahuguna from Tehri Garhwal and incumbent CM's wife Renuka Rawat from Haridwar. Senior state leader Harak Singh Rawat has filed his nomination from Garhwal.

(2) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): Apart from the Modi wave, the saffronists are relying on the anti-incumbency against the ruling regime to work in its favor. With Satpal Maharaj joining it, the cadre are upbeat and are pretty sure to reverse that disastrous defeat of 2009. Three of the party's former CM are in the fray including B C Khanduri (Garhwal), Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank (Haridwar) and Bhagat Singh Koshiyari (Nainital). The incumbent MP from Tehri Garhwal Raj Laxmi who had beaten Saket Bahuguna in the 2012 has been retained.

Others: The Aam Admi Party (AAP) too is contesting the polls and has fielded candidates in at least three seats. The Samajwadi Party (SP) as well as the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) are set to contest the polls from Uttarakhand.

PAST PERFORMANCES

In the first state elections in 2002, it was the Congress which emerged as the clear winner by just crossing the half way mark. In the next legislative polls, it was the saffron outfit that finished as the single largest party with 34 seats and formed the government with the help of the regional players and independents. Two years ago, in a close contest, the INC nearly spoiled its own chances as it scrapped by a resurgent BJP. The UKD has never managed to break big in the state thanks to internal splits and differences between leaders. Meanwhile, in 2009 Lok Sabha, the Congress did a clean sweep whereas the saffron camp won 3 seats in 2004.

	Political Party	2012 SE	2009 LE	2007 SE	2004 LE	2002 SE
1	Congress	32	5	21	1	36
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	31	-	34	3	19
3	Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	3	-	8	-	7
4	Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD)	1	-	3	-	4
5	Others (SP/IND)	3	-	3	1	4

(1) Uttarakhand sends 70 seats to the state legislative assembly.

(2) The state has 5 parliamentary seats.

MY PREDICTIONS

The shoddy implementation of relief work after the 2013 flash floods and general anti-incumbency against the UPA government has put the Congress on the back foot.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Congress	0-1
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	4-5

WATCH OUT

(1) The stability of the Uttarakhand government: Presently, Congress has 33 MLAs in the state assembly whereas the BJP has 30 seats. The INC has taken the support of the UKD and the independents to form the government. However, the defection of Satpal Maharaj to the saffron camp has changed the equation. If the NDA does win the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, you can expect Satpal loyalists to follow their leader into the BJP. It will not take long for either the lone UKD MLA or the independents to change their allegiance. In that situation, one can expect a regime change in Dehradun. You see a lot depends on the results.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

CHANGE OF GUARD

WILL REPLACING BAHUGUNA HELP THE CONGRESS

Harish Rawat (Courtesy: Sahara Samay)

With the elections coming closer, the Congress seems to be cornered on all fronts. The myriad corruption scandals, high inflation rates and economic slump have led to a strong anti-incumbency wave across the country. On the other hand, the BJP which had been a divided house for nearly a decade has found a new rallying point - its PM nominee Narendra Modi who has captivated the minds of the cadre. The INC tried to counter the Gujarat CM's growing influence by raising the issue of 'Secularism'. However, as opinion polls have predicted, the saffron leader's development agenda is a big hit amongst the masses while Congress' arguments are finding no takers. At the same time, the willingness of several non-NDA parties to work with the Hindutva leader was another big jolt to the UPA leadership, clearly indicating that many regional players are ready to join the BJP-led alliance provided it crosses the 200 mark. Aware of Modi's growing popularity and in a bid to divert attention from the failures of the UPA at the Centre, the party changed its strategy, deciding to focus on local issues at the state level. This too was a failure with the BJP and the AAP sweeping the recently concluded elections in the four states. Finally, the Congress took the big gamble as Rahul Gandhi gave a rare interview to Times Now Editor-in-chief Arnab Goswami. At the end of the 75 minute show, the younger Gandhi who could neither give convincing answers to any question thrown at him nor could put across his vision for the country was the laughing stock of the nation. At a time when they should convince people to vote for them, the party leaders are seen defending the royal scion in the last few days. Meanwhile the INC has not yet given up hope of a third consecutive term. The sacking of the Uttarakhand CM Vijay Bahuguna just a few months before the Lok Sabha polls is seen as a move to boost its chances in the state which it had swept in 2009. 

This is not the first time that a ripple effect of the General Elections has been felt in the capital Dehradun. In 2009 Lok Sabha polls, following the INC's white wash of the BJP, the incumbent CM B C Khanduri was asked to step down and replaced by his own aide Ramesh Pokhriyal. This move turned out to be a disaster; his alleged role in several scams became a cause of embarrassment to the party which was already facing the heat down south in Karnataka. Aware that Pokhriyal could dampen the party prospects in the 2012 state polls, Khanduri was brought back and placed at the helm of affairs. What should have been a cakewalk for the Congress turned out to be one of the closest electoral battles in the last few years thanks to factionalism within its ranks. Winning one seat more than the saffron outfit, the INC formed the government with support from the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP), the Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD) and some independents. In what was seen as a counter to curb the growing influence of regional satraps like Harik Singh Rawat, Harish Rawat and Yaspal Arya to name a few, the party high command asked the dark horse - Tehri MP Vijay Bahuguna to occupy the top post. The first big jolt to the new CM came just few months down the line when his son Saket, a business man lost his dad's seat of Tehri to BJP's Mala Rajlakshmi Shah by over 22,000 votes. One of the prime reasons for the defeat was that several of the high profile state leaders refused to campaign for the CM's son. The big blow however, came in June 2013 when flash floods in and around the holy city of Kedarnath claimed over 5000 lives. Life and property worth crores was destroyed and tourism, one of the state's premiere sources of income took a major hit. In the following months, the callousness of the state administration to carry out the rescue operations and shoddy rehabilitation efforts further added to the strong anti-incumbency wave against the Central government, here in the hill state. As such, the Congress had no option but to sack Bahuguna. MP Harish Rawat, who enjoys the support of the majority members in the state legislature was made the CM.

CONSTITUENCY	1996	1998	1999	2004	2009
Almora	BJP	BJP	BJP	BJP	INC
Garhwal	AIIC (T)	BJP	BJP	BJP	INC
Hardwar	BJP	BJP	BJP	SP	INC
Nainital	AIIC (T)	BJP	INC	INC	INC
Tehri-Garhwal	BJP	BJP	BJP	BJP	INC

(1) Until 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the five constituencies in Uttarkhand were a part of Uttar Pradesh.

(2) AIIC (T): All India Indira Congress (Tiwari) was a splinter group of the Congress formed by N D Tiwari,  Arjun Singh and Natwar Singh which later merged with the INC.

The decision for a regime change in Dehradun should not surprise anybody. All opinion polls suggest that the UPA is struggling across the country. At the same time, Bahuguna administration's inefficient way of handling the relief work had become a major poll issue in the state which the BJP was trying to use for its own advantage. The Congress is hoping that the change of guard will cut down the anti-INC sentiments to some extent. A look at the above chart, showing which party won the five constituencies in the state over last five General Elections throws a surprising picture. Four out of the five times, Uttarkhand has chosen a clear winner. In other terms, it is a winner-takes-all state, like Tamil Nadu. In 1996, there was a close contest between the BJP and the N D Tiwari led AIIC(T). In the next two elections though, saffron wave swept the state as Congress struggled, managing to win just one seat in 1999. In 2004, the SP won Hardwar bringing the BJP's tally down by one whereas the INC held on to Nainital. The last election saw the Congress humiliating the BJP 5-0 in spite of the BJP lead coalition government in the state. The Congress' excellent show here was one of the biggest reasons for it to cross the 200 mark on its own. Five years down the line, with a strong anti-INC wave at the Centre and people's discontent with the state administration, the BJP is trying to capitalize on the situation and repeat its showing in 1998. The nomination of the Harish Rawat as the Chief Minister is an attempt by the Congress to bolster its prospects in the state. Will it work? Lets wait and watch.

IMAGES

(1) Harish Rawat (Courtesy: Sahara Samay)
Original: Sahara Samay - 1200 crores for disaster relief operations (Link)