THE SPOILSPORTS

The Bihar elections has been touted as a two horse race between the incumbent CM Nitish Kumar led 'Grand Alliance' on one side and the Narendra Modi led National Democratic Alliance on the other. With most Opinion Polls predicting a neck to neck contest between the two sides, parties are trying hard to retain their 'traditional' vote banks while hoping to break into those of their rivals. From the development card to caste based politics to evoking religious sentiments, outfits are using every issue under the sun to strike a chord with the electorate and win what is turning out to be the most important polls since the last General Elections. However, with the two coalitions grabbing all the headlines, it is easy to overlook the other smaller parties or formations in the fray; while they may not win many seats, they sure can emerge as 'spoilsports' in their strongholds and at the end tilt the results in the favour of one side. Here is a look at the 'not-so-famous' parties or alliances that could play a crucial role in Bihar 2015. 

The Third Front: A golden rule of Indian politics is that 'You should never mess with Mulayum Singh Yadav'; the wrestler turned former CM of Uttar Pradesh is not known to forgive his detractors so easily. The leaders of the Grand Alliance were made aware of this when the SP supremo not only walked out of the Nitish led front but joined hands with the Pappu Yadav's JAM to float a rival coalition that threatens to wean away some votes that would have otherwise gone to the ruling combination. 

The 'Socialist Secular Morcha' as it is being termed is targeting the powerful Muslim - Yadav vote bank which till about a decade ago was the primary support base of Lalu Yadav. There is no doubt that Samajwadi Party (SP) supremo Mulayum is the tallest Yadav leader in the country and he is expected to wield some influence in western parts of Bihar, mainly in the district bordering UP. Besides, the presence of Pappu Yadav's Jan Adikhar Morcha (JAM) will boost the alliance's chances, particularly in his stronghold of Madhepura. The JAM founder certainly has a point to prove; after being expelled out of the RJD, he would want to make Lalu pay for it. In fact, it is believed that several RJD and JD-U leaders who have been denied tickets by their parties are in talks with the controversial politician ahead of the polls. Former Union Minister Nagamani's Samras Samaj Party (SSP), former Lok Sabha Speaker P A Sangma's Nationalist People's Party (NPP) and former Jhanjharpur MP Devendra Prasad Yadav's Samajwadi Janata Dal - Democratic (SJD-D) too are a part of this combination. 

Of course, it has not been all smooth sailing for this alliance. One of its major constituent - the NCP walked out of the Front citing differences with the SP. Ironcially, NCP leader Tariq Anwar was being projected as the Morcha's CM candidate. 

Nationalist Congress Party: The Sharad Pawar led outfit has certainly made a fool of itself in the Bihar assembly elections. In the beginning it was a part of the Nitih led 'Maha ghatbandhan' but walked out of it after it was given just three seats instead of the 12 that it has asked for. Next, it entered into a pre-poll tie up with the SP and was allocated over 40 seats to contest as a constituent of the Third Front. However, days before the second round of voting, the party snapped all ties with the coalition, accusing Mulayum Singh of being hand in glove with the BJP.  

Kathiar MP and party's Muslim face Tariq Anwar speaking to the media said that his outfit will contest 45 seats alone. The NCP will be a strong contender in the six assembly segments of Kathiar district of Bihar and will again eat into the votes of the Nitish - Lalu alliance. The extent of the damage it causes to the 'secular' parties needs to be seen.

The Left Front: Six Communist parties too are fighting the Bihar polls with the aim of providing a 'viable' alternative to the people as per Communist Party of India (CPI) General Secretary Prakash Karat. The other constituents of the alliance include the CPI-ML, the CPM, the RSP, the Forward Block and the Socialist Union of Communist India - Communist (SUCI-C). The coalition is believed to have substantial base Bhojpur and Beguserai regions of the state but it will be crucial to see if this translates into seats.

All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen: It turns out that all the hullabaloo surrounding Owaisi's debut in Bihar turned out to be a dud. Though he had earlier announced plans of contesting on seats from four districts in the Seemanchal region of the state, in a statement made this past week, the AIMIM chief has said that his outfit will only contest from six assembly seats. This move should come as a big relief for the mega coalition since it was believed that Owaisi could end up splitting the Muslim vote which till sometime back was said to be firmly behind Nitish and Lalu.

Shiv Sena: A partner in the government headed by the BJP in Maharashra, the Uddhav Thackeray led outfit's entry into the fray is likely to affect the chances of some NDA candidates in Bihar. The saffron outfit which is regularly in the news for harassing Bihari migrants in Mumbai is hoping to capitalize on disgruntled BJP leaders to help it open its account in the northern state. Though even opening its account will be a big achievement for the Sena, it could play the spoiler for the NDA on some closely fought seats.

Bahujan Samajwadi Party: Though the Mayawati led party once had representatives in the Bihar state assembly, today the BSP's prospects look bleak. The party on its part is contesting all 243 seats but it will take more than a miracle to even win a single seat. As per the plan, the BSP is targeting the Dalit and women voters to do well in the polls.

Jharkhand Mukhti Morcha: The Shibu Soren led JMM has some support base in parts of southern Bihar with significant tribal populations. The former Jharkhand CM will be banking on these votes to spring a surprise and win a few segments.

P.S: Of late, I have not been regularly updating this blog. Apart from work, the other reason is that I have started a new blog - Raajaniti (Link) dedicated to Indian politics. Henceforth, I will put up posts on this topic on both these blogs. 

Also, I would request you to check out the new blog and please provide your valuable feedback.

JHARKHAND POLLS 2014 - Part II

THE RESULTS

While the Opinion polls had suggested a 50+ tally for the BJP and its allies, the NDA managed to scrape past the half way mark by winning of 42 seats in the 81 member Jharkhand legislative assembly. Nevertheless it was the first time in the fourteen year long history of the state that the electorate here had given a clear mandate to one party or a pre-poll front. The BJP should be disappointed; having won 12 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in May this year and led in about 50 assembly segments, the saffron outfit's sheet is much below the expected mark. On the other hand, the ruling JMM too has reasons to be happy from the verdict; in spite of fighting anti-incumbency, the regional party managed to increase the tally it secured in the 2009 polls by a single seat. The Congress that contested the polls in alliance with the newly created Janta Parivar was routed, quite literally. Babulal Marandi's JVM-P too had its share of highs and lows.

Before, going into the details, here is a look at the final results as published on the ECI website (Link).

 

Sr.	Party Name	Seats
1.	National Democratic Alliance (NDA)	42
a.	- Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	37
b.	- All Jharkhand Student's Union (AJSU)	5
2.	JMM Front	19
a.	- Jharkhand Mukthi Morcha (JMM)	19
3.	United Progressive Alliance (UPA)	06
a.	- Indian National Congress (INC)	06
b.	- Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)	-
c.	- Janata Dal - United (JD-U)	-
4.	JVM-P Front	08
a.	- Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM-P)	08
b.	- Trinamool Congress (TMC)	-
5.	Others	06
a.	- Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)	1
b.	- Communist Party of India - Marxist-Leninist Liberation (CPI-MLL)	1
c.	- Jai Bharat Samanta Party (JBSP)	1
d.	- Jharkhand Party (JP)	1
e.	- Marxist Co-Ordination (MCO)	1
f.	- Navjawan Sangharsh Morcha (NSM)	1

Now coming back to the 'victors'. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) did end up as the single largest party in the state. However, what should worry the saffronists is that they could not go past the 41 mark on their own. After the results in the General Elections, pundits were expecting the party to nearly triple its 2009 tally of eighteen seats. With its ally, the All Jharkhand Student's Union (AJSU) winning 5 of the 8 seats that it fought in alliance with the BJP, the combine is all set to form the next government in Ranchi. The point to note is that in spite of their reasonably 'good' showing, the top leaders of both these outfits had to face defeat in their constituencies. Three time state CM Arjun Munda was beaten by JMM nominee Dasrath Gagrai from Khasran; Gagrai who had contested as a JVM-P candidate in 2009 had given lost a close contest to Munda back then. Meanwhile, AJSU chief Sudesh Mahato who hadd served as the state's Deputy CM too had to bit the dust from Silli constituency. The immediate consequence of this is that it has opened up the race for the CM's chair. Raghuvar Das who won from Jameshedpur - East is believed to be the front runner followed by state BJP unit president Ravindra Rai.

Though his party may have lost power, the outgoing CM and JMM leader Hemant Soren has emerged as a strong regional leader post the elections. Though his father and JMM supremo Shibu Soren may not have campaigned in the polls due to ailing health, he did put up a tough fight. It was only due to his focused campaign that the BJP was not able to go beyond the 50 way mark. On the other hand, there were some reasons for worry for him as well. Though he won from Barbhait, he lost his family stronghold of Dhumka to BJP's Lois Marandi. Also, the party's performance in the Santhal region was below par.

For all those Congressmen who thought that the Jharkhand polls could herald a new chapter in the INC's fortunes, especially after the successive electoral defeats in the last 12 months, their hopes were dashed. The Congress which had forged an alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Janata Dal - United (JD-U) could only manage six seats. Clearly, the move to sever ties with the JMM proved to be a blunder; besides, it also failed to strike a deal with Marandi's JVM-P which has a strong presence in certain pockets in the state. Had the party managed to form a grand alliance and bring the JMM, the JVM-P, RJD and JD-U together, the results could have been dramatically different.

Considering that most of his incumbent MLAs had switched sides prior to the polls, Babulal Marandi must be happy that he still won 8 seats. However, that seems to be the only solace for the state's first CM. Surprisingly, Marandi who is known for his 'clean' lost from both the seats that he contested. He was beaten by CPI-MLL's Rajkumar Yadav in Dhanwar and by BJP's Nirbhay Shabadi in Giridh. Meanwhile, with the BJP-AJSU combine winning a simple majority, he cannot play the role of the 'King-Maker' either. There are strong indications that Marandi's Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM-P) may join the ruling regime. Speculations are rife that the party may also be merged into the BJP.

Amongst the other smaller parties, the biggest shock came in the form of the defeat of former CM Madhu Koda from Majhgaon by JMM's Nial Puty. However, his wife Geeta managed to win the Jagganathpur constituency as a JBSP candidate. Besides, smaller regional outfits like the BSP, the JP and the NSM too bagged a seat each. Two candidates from Leftist parties like the the MCO and the CPI-MLL were also successful.

For long, it has been stated that political instability in the state has been the prime reason for Jharkhand to lag behind in the sphere of development. Illiteracy, malnutrition and poverty index continues to remain extremely high. Left winged extremism has only made the matters worse. Now that the BJP and its allies have got a clear mandate, the onus is on the party to deliver on its pre-poll promises.

For all posts related to the Jharkhand State Polls 2014, click here (Link)