THE RETURN OF THE KRAKEN

AMAR SINGH JOINS RLD TO REJUVENATE HIS POLITICAL CAREER

Who is creepier of the two? Amar Singh (Left) or the Kraken (Right)

I enjoy watching movies based on mythology and one of my favorites is the Clash of the Titans. All of you who have seen the movie will recollect the plot where Hades - the God of the Underworld revives the dreaded monster Kraken to strike fear in the minds of the people and make them respect the Gods. Of course, his sinister aim is to depose his brother Zeus who had tricked him earlier. Just like in the movie, the Kraken of Indian politics - Amar Singh is back from his political hibernation of four years; in fact the old guy is back with a bang. Earlier this week, the former Samajwadi Party leader joined Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). While age may have caught up with him, he still spoke like a Neta, apologizing for his remarks he had made earlier while he was associated with Mulayum's outfit and pledged his allegiance to Sonia Gandhi. Flanked by his protege Jaya Pradha, the only Bollywood personality who was by his side when he was unwell, Singh said that he was still open to the idea of joining the Congress, if invited by the UPA Chairperson to do so. The controversial businessman cum political has seen both the ups an downs of Rajneeti over the last six years. The 2014 election is going to be the most important battle of Singh's political career. A victory will be a fresh lease of life whereas a defeat will see him meet the same fate that Kraken did in the Hollywood movie I referred to earlier.

The Highs and the Lows: While he is controversy's favorite child, the former SP leader will be widely remembered for his role in the Indo-Nuclear deal. If you think that Amar Singh played a key role in the negotiation with US officials then you are absolutely wrong. All these high-level discussions are too much for the 'pea-brained' Amar to handle. While you can laugh on his knowledge, you just cannot deny that he can play his cards really well. As the Left withdrew their outside support to the UPA I government over the Indo-US Nuclear Deal, Mulayum Singh and the Samajwadi Party rushed to fill in the numbers, making sure that Manmohan Singh's only tough decision in his decade long tenure was passed in the Parliament. Amar Singh who was then a member of the Rajya Sabha from UP and the General Secretary of the SP played a crucial role in this episode. In fact, he was accused of trying to bribe three BJP MPs to vote in favor of the Bill. The friendship between the INC and the SP was short lived; as they went to the polls in 2009 without any pre-poll agreement, the two parties ended with 21 and 23 seats each. However, Mulayum's dream of becoming the 'King-Maker' in Delhi was shattered as the Congress crossed the 200 mark on its own and the UPA won a clear majority. Besides, it was in the same year that differences between two of Mulayum's top lieutenants - Amar and party's Muslim face Azam Khan came into prominence over Jaya Pradha's nomination from the Rampur constituency. At that time, the SP chief had reiterated his faith in Singh and expelled Khan for six years.

However, Amar Singh's fortunes began to slide in the later half of 2009. The figures of the 2009 Lok Sabha polls shocked Mulayum to the core. The BSP, in spite of being in power for nearly three year had the largest vote share of 27 percent whereas the Muslims, one of SP's primary vote bank were drifting to the Congress. With his eyes on the 2012 state polls (Link), Mulayum started wooing Amar's bete noire Azam Khan. Besides, the former General Secretary's high profile life style and Bollywood connections were seen as a stark contrast to the principal of Socialism which is 'supposed' to be SP's ideology by many loyalists. In January 2010, Amar Singh resigned from all party post and the following month was officially thrown out of the party. The next four years saw the shrewd politician see the lowest of lows. Many of his high society friends including Bade Bhaiyya, a certain Amitabh Bachchan refused to stand up for him. In fact, Jaya Bachchan who was a MP in the Upper House refused to resign in protest to the treatment meted out to her Devarji (Brother-in-law). The release of the 2006 tapes which shows him talking to politicians, Bollywood personalities, journalists and others proved to be a major embarrassment for him. In September 2011, he was jailed for a few days by the Supreme Court under the Prevention of Corruption Act for his alleged role in offering bribe to three BJP MPs in 2009. He formed a new political party - the Rashtriya Lok Manch but the experiment was a failure. For the next two years, the old war horse spent most of his time in hospital with many writing him off. However, in what seems to be a final stand, he has joined Chaudhary Ajit Singh's RLD along with aide Jaya Pradha in an attempt to salvage his political career.

Joining the RLD: As he was readying for his political comeback, it is certain that Amar would have weighed all his options wisely. Considering the fact that he was never a mass leader, reviving the now defunct Lok Manch was not an option. Although UP CM Akhilesh Yadav had recently mentioned him while speaking to the press, there was no way he was joining Mulayum back, at least after the humiliation he had faced earlier. Walking into the BJP would hurt his 'secular' credentials. In fact, Amar would have loved to join the Congress. It was speculated that Jaya Pradha was in touch with certain state Congress leaders to contest on an INC ticket. However, her demand to 'rehabilitate' her political mentor was something that the party thought could hurt it politically, considering the many controversies that Singh has courted in the past. As such, the only feasible option seems to have been the Rashtriya Lok Dal. Remember the three Singhs - Mulayum, Ajit and Amar were a part of the same government earlier when the SP and the RLD were allies in Lucknow. Secondly, with Ajit Singh joining the UPA, Amar would still be a part of the Congress-led coalition, if not the INC itself. It is very much certain that Amar's entry into the RLD had the approval of the Congress High Command.

How will the RLD benefit? Chaudhary Ajit Singh has been the 'most loyal' ally of the Congress in UPA II. However, like all constituents of the UPA, it is facing acute anti-incumbency. And to add to it, the Muzaffarnagar riots (Link) in Western UP has led to a 'trust-deficit' between the Jats and the Muslims, the two communities from where Ajit draws high strength. It is believed that the Jats are moving towards the BJP whereas the Muslims might go with the Congress or even the BSP. As such, Chaudhary is putting a lot of pressure on the Congress to help him in the elections. Two of the 5 MPs from Ajit Singh's party who had won the last elections have been expelled for anti-party activities. The Manmohan regime's decision to bring Jats under the ambit of OBC reservation was a clear move to earn brownie points in Haryana, Rajasthan and UP. Certainly, it is going to benefit the RLD in wooing back the community too. 

Secondly, with Jaya Pradha having won Lok Sabha polls from UP twice in the past, her entry into the outfit may increase Ajit's final tally by one. Of course, Ajit Singh has to carry the baggage of Amar's multiple controversies and flip flops from the past which opponents will use to embarrass him and his outfit. However, in the upcoming battle royal, it seems to be a price that the RLD chief is willing to pay. Meanwhile, the Congress and the RLD have finalized their seat-sharing formula for the upcoming polls with eight seats going into the latter's kitty. Jayant Chaudhary, the son and the successor of the party chief is likely to contest from Mathura. It is believed that Jaya will may contest from Bijnor whereas the Kraken, I mean Amar is certain to fight the elections from Fatehpur-Sikri.

RIOTS IN UP AND ELECTIONS 2014 - Part I

HOW THE RIOTS IN WESTERN UP WILL AFFECT THE FORTUNES OF PARTIES

Though the riots that took place in parts of western Uttar Pradesh in August last year are a blot on the secular credentials of our nation, for our political parties who seem to be least bothered by the suffering of the people, it is just another opportunity to score brownie points over their rivals. Instead of trying to bring communities together and eliminate differences, outfits are adding smoke to the fire by openly taking sides with an eye on the upcoming General Elections scheduled for May this year. With Uttar Pradesh sending 80 MPs to the Parliament - the largest amongst all states, it is said that the road to New Delhi passes via Lucknow. As such, it should hardly be surprising that our leaders can pull off even the dirtiest of all tricks to come to power, even if it means that some innocent lives are lost or thousands are displaced from their homes. While some believed that the ascend of the young Akhilesh Yadav in March 2012 would usher in a new kind of politics in our most populous state, his innumerable failures in the last year and a half have proved even his most die-hard fans, if they exist, wrong.

The complete collapse of the administration during the riots and its inability to provide basic facilities in relief camps has drawn a lot of flake from the Opposition as well as social groups. While he was quick to suspend the honest IAS officer Durga Shakti Nagpal for whipping up communal sentiments by demolishing a compound wall of a mosque - a charge that has been refuted even by the people affected by this, the callousness that his regime displayed in restoring law and order is an indication, perhaps that the young Turk intends to carry forward his father's legacy of caste based and religion based politics.Though younger Yadav deserves all the criticism that he is getting, other parties can not wash their hands off it. Reports indicated that local leaders with affiliation to the BJP, the Congress as well as the BSP played a key role in whipping up communal sentiments. Finally, after the officials succeeding in stopping the violence, the high profile visits by political leaders including RLD's Arjun Singh,  the triumvirate of the Congress and the 'funniest' of all, that of the recently jailed Lalu Yadav of the RJD is nothing but another gimmick to cash in on the situation. As the big battle for Delhi is just months away, here is my take on how the events in Muzaffaranagar will affect the poll prospects of the different stake holders.

The biggest loser: While it is difficult to predict who will derive maximum 'benefit' from this ghastly tragedy, it seems that former PM Charan Singh's son and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) supremo Chaudhary Arjun Singh will be the one licking the wounds post the Lok Sabha polls. Though he has

RLD supremo Ajit Singh

always been over shadowed by the more vociferous and charismatic Mulayum Singh and Mayawati in the state politics, there is no doubt that Singh is one of the most clever politicians in the Hindi heartland. While his party may not boast of big numbers, his remarkable political acumen, his popularity in Western UP and the knack to ally with the right partners make him a prominent player in Lucknow. However, the last two years have not been a good one for either him or his party. In the 2012 state assembly polls, in spite of a pre-poll tie up with the much hyped Congress, the party dropped one seat to finish at a lowly 9 seats. Though the heir apparent and MP Jayant won the Mathura constituency, heavyweights like Baba Hardev Singh and Haji Yakub Qureshi had to bite the dust. The role of Singh who is serving as the Civil Aviation minister in the national cabinet, in pushing through the Jet-Etihad deal has raised many eyebrows. At a time when things are not going his way, the rift between the Jats and the Muslims - the traditional vote bank of the RLD following the riots may badly affect its performance, rendering it insignificant in the post poll scenario. With even the Congress re-thinking its alliance with Singh's outfit ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, the picture for Chaudhary looks gloomy.

A major blow: In March 2012, the wily Mulayum Singh Yadav took a big gamble by placing his son Akhilesh on the CM's chair. However, those who follow Indian politics know that anything that UP strong man does has a political motive behind it. By offering the post to his son, he was checking the ambitions of other big leaders - his brother Ram Gopal Yadav and the party's minority face Azam Khan. Having swept UP and after being elevated to the status of 'Netaji' by the party cadre, Singh

From left: Azam Khan, Mulayum Singh and Akhilesh

who was confident of an excellent performance in 2014 was hoping to play the King-Maker at the Centre while his son ruled from Lucknow. However, for once, his plan has backfired or at least it seems so as of now. Akhilesh's incompetency and misgovernance has led to a wave of anti-incumbency within two years of his party's outstanding results in the last state polls. The mishandling of the situation in Muzaffarnagar has alienated the Muslims - the community which, along with the Yadavs is the core vote bank of the Samajwadi Party (SP). Meanwhile, party leader Azam Khan who shares an uneasy relationship with Mulayum has been accused by many in the riot hit Muzaffarnagar district of 'orchestrating' the violence and his effigies have been burnt in several places. The only reason why I think that RLD will be the bigger loser as compared to its former ally the SP is the fact that the latter may still do well in case the Yadavs still stick with it. Though he has himself tried to maintain the moral high ground by criticizing the state government, Singh should realize that instead of such gimmicks, he must take his son to task and concentrate on improving the administration in the state. In 2009, the gravitation of a section of Muslims towards the Congress damaged the SP's performance, reducing it to a mere 23 seats. With so much negative publicity surrounding the riots, the party is under fire from all corners including former friends Ajit Singh and Lalu Yadav. However, one can never write the Pehalvan off; you never know when the master politician can pull off a surprise ahead of the big polls.

For the next post on this topic, click here (Link)

IMAGES 

(1) RLD supremo Ajit Singh
Source: Rashtriya Lok Dal - Official Website (Link)

(2) From left: Azam Khan, Mulayum Singh and Akhilesh
Source: Samajwadi Party - Official Website (Link)

THE STATES THAT MATTER - PART V

BATTLEGROUND UP - Part C

Apart from the caste factor, communal politics too has been a hallmark of UP politics. The BJP which rose to prominence after the demolition of the Babri Masjid has promised to construct a Ram temple in Ayodhya in its poll manifesto for 2012. Though nothing was done in this regard during the time that the NDA was in power at the Centre, the party is hoping that Lord Ram may help it regain its lost hold in the state. The move to go to polls in Uttar Pradesh under the leadership of Hindutva firebrand Uma Bharathi is being looked upon by many as an attempt to consolidate the Hindu votes in favor of the saffron outfit, more so, after other parties have promised a list of soaps for the minority community. Also, the party leaders have so far avoided making any provocative statement against the Muslim community, unlike Varun Gandhi in 2009, damaging all prospects of the party.

Salman Rushdie

However, the war to get the Muslim votes, that constitute 20% of UP's population has intensified amongst the other three parties - SP, BSP and Congress. With the Babri Masjid verdict going against the community, anger seems to be simmering within the community. In the past, Mulayam has relied on the Muslim-Yadav votes to come to power in UP. In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, though, a significant chunk of the party's Muslim  support base deserted to the Congress. Realizing that such a trend could be detrimental to his interest in the future, the SP supremo banished Kalyan Singh from the party, who was at the helm of affairs during the demolition of Babri Masjid. Azam Khan who was expelled from the SP due to differences with Amar Singh has been roped back into the party fold, thereby boosting Mulayam's chances of coming to power in UP. Even Behenji has announced a host of initiatives to appease the Muslims community. 

The Congress too has left no stone unturned to impress the Muslim voters. Salman Khurshid, the Minister for Minority Affairs had earlier promised that his party would provide reservations for the Muslims if elected to power in Uttar Pradesh but backtracked his statement after many accused the Congress of playing the minority card to its advantage. The party is also raking the Batla House encounter issue which evokes passion among the Muslims in the state who allege that the police actions were uncalled for and the men who died has no terrorist links whatsoever, for political gains. Rahul has accused the SP and the BSP of not doing enough for the Muslims of the state over the years and has urged them to support him in this elections.  

Ironically, the most high profile victim of the communal politics of UP this time around was well renowned writer, Salman Rushdie. The author of the banned book, Satanic Verses was supposed to come down to India earlier this year to be a part of the Jaipur Literature Fest. However, due to mounting protest from Islamic leaders and fear of losing the Muslim votes in UP, the UPA government was caught in a catch 22 situation as any move to facilitate Rushdie's entry or stay in India would not go well with the minorities. Annoyed by the government's apathy, Rushdie called off his trip claiming that his sources had warned him that assassins had been hired to eliminate him while in Jaipur. Also the Rajasthan government was said to play a key role in the cancellation of video link between Rushdie and the Literature fest. The BJP has accused the UPA of politicizing the whole issue for electoral gains. However, the Sangh Parivar had launched a similar witch hunt against painter M F Hussain some years back, forcing him to flee to London and then accept citizenship of Qatar.

D P Yadav

Though it may have failed on multiple fronts, the BSP government has been credited for improving the law and order situation in Uttar Pradesh. Under the erstwhile Mulayam regime, 'Goonda Raj' was prevalent across the state and the whole system was filled with goons and people with criminal background. However, Maya has been able to sternly deal with this issue and her administration has been relatively cleaner. In fact,  the hooliganism under the SP government has been used by the BSP to counter anti-incumbency. Well aware of the fact that SP's image as a party of goons may cost it dearly in the 2012 polls, Akhilesh Yadav is said to have personally intervened and vetoed against Western UP's don D P Yadav's entry into the Samajwadi Party. 

All major political parties have fielded candidates with criminal records. Prominent amongst these include Kaptan Singh Rajput, Bhagwan Sharma and Mehboob Ali of the SP, Ram Sewak Patel, Indra Pratap Tiwari and Manjo Tiwari of the BSP, Kalawati Bind, Babban Rajbhar and Ajai Rai of the Congress and Radhey Sham Gupta, Lallu Singh and Santram Senger of the BJP. After being snubbed by the SP, D P Yadav has decided to contest as a candidate of the Rashtriya Parivartan Dal. Relatively smaller parties too have followed the precedent set by the larger parties. Dons of Eastern UP Mukhtar Ansari and Brijesh Singh are also in the fray and have got tickets from Qaumi Ekta and Pragatisheel Manav Samaj Party respectively. Khurmi outfit Apna Dal has fielded Munna Bajrangi and Atia Ahmad who have criminal cases against them.

With her eyes on the polls, the Mayawati government passed a resolution in the state assembly asking the Centre to break-up the mega state into four smaller states for administrative purposes.  According to the proposal, the new states would be Poorvanchal (Eastern UP), Harit Pradesh (Western UP), Bundelkhand and Awadh Pradesh (Central UP). Many have questioned Behenji's commitment towards the cause as they believe that the move has ulterior motives. In fact most of the parties seem to have been stumped by Maya's political acumen.

Mayawati's proposal to split Uttar Pradesh

By sending the proposal to the Centre, the BSP has certainly put the ball in the Congress's court. Knowing that the Congress had earlier made a mess of the Telangana statehood issue with different leaders speaking in different tunes, Mayawati has put the Congress on a sticky wicket. In case the Centre approves Maya's proposal, it could open a Pandora's box and demands for statehood from other parts of the country. However, if the government rejects it then Congress will be portrayed as anti-UP by the BSP. As such the party has not yet made its stand clear on this issue. On the other hand, the SP has always opposed any division of the state on the grounds that such a move could diminish the political influence of the state in national politics. The party, which was also against the creation of Uttarakhand has made it clear that it will fight against any division of the state. The BJP which has always supported the creation of smaller states has demanded that the division should be done after setting up a state reorganization committee. 

Another big poll issue this election season is the statues of Mayawati, Kanshi Ram and Dr Ambedkar that have been erected in different places throughout the state by the BSP government with money got from the public exchequer. The BSP supremo has claimed that such a move is in the interest of the lower classes as Dr Ambedkar and BSP founder Kanshi Ram have been looked upon by the ordinary Dalits as their heroes. As far as her own statues are concerned, Behenji says that these were erected according to the wishes of her mentor late Shri Kanshi Ram.  Going a step further, at an election rally in Lucknow, Maya declared that under her government the state's capital was transformed into Paris due to the construction of the parks. 

However, the opposition has been united in condemning this move of the state government. Mulayam Singh has declared publicly that he will bulldoze Mayawati's statues if he comes back to power. Even the BJP has claimed that it will replace Maya's statues with those of spiritual leaders and social reformers. The Election Commission too has asked the Maya regime to cover her statues and that of her party's election symbol, the elephant ahead of the polls. Maya has accused the her opponents and the EC of being biased towards the Dalits and has asked the people to teach the opposition a lesson in the upcoming polls. 

Mayawati's statues

The Mayawati statues have been one of the several self-glorification exercises by the Dalit leader in the last five years. In 2010, the UP CM was presented with a garland of Rs 1000 notes by her ministers at a rally attended by countless admirers. In its India cables, WikiLeaks reported an incident where the BSP leader sent a private jet to Mumbai to fetch sandals of her preferred brand. It also claimed that she had constructed a private road from her house to her office which is cleaned each day and that she employs food tasters as she fears that she may be assassinated by poisoning. Meanwhile, Maya has refuted the allegations and has advised WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange to undergo mental treatment.

The Bhatta-Parsaul agitation against forcible land grabbing by hte BSP government may cost the party, especially in the farming belt of Western UP. Several villagers were allegedly killed by the police in the agitation and their womenfolk were molested. The issue soon snowballed into a huge controversy with the Congress and the BJP trying to use this issue to counter Mayawati. Rahul Gandhi and Digvijay Singh who led a protest march to the village were arrested by the state officials. Rahul claimed to have seen an ash mound where bodies of dead villagers were supposedly burnt by the security staff to cover up the whole incident. However, investigations later proved that such claims were baseless. Even BJP leader Arun Jaitely was arrested before arriving in the village to assess the situation. Sensing that she could lose the support of the farmers from Western UP, Mayawati announced a new land acquisition policy in the state where private parties would themselves acquire land from its owners whwereas the state government would just act as a facilitator. 

Lastly, another peculiar feature of the elections in Uttar Pradesh this time around is the number of smaller parties that are in the fray that could spoil the prospects of several parties. The most prominent among these is the Ajit Singh's RLD. The party has a strong support base in Western UP, especially amongst the Jat farmers. Over the years, the RLD has been in alliance with the SP and the BJP in the past. However, the party walked out of the NDA and joined the UPA in December, 2011. Under the arrangement, Ajit Singh was made the Union Minister for Aviation at the Centre. The Congress is hoping that the pre-poll alliance would benefit both the sides. 

RLD's Ajit Singh

Rashtriya Lokmanch Party's chief Amar Singh is canvassing heavily in different parts of the state for his party's candidates in spite of not keeping well lately, accusing Mulayam Singh of betraying him. The party's main campaigner is Bollywood beauty Jaya Prada who is campaigning in Rampur against the local SP leader and her political foe Azam Khan. Even former CM Kalyan Singh has hit out at other parties while on the campaign trail. He has calimed that the BJP will never be able to come to power in UP. The Jan Kranti Party leader has handed over the reins of his party to his son Ranveer. 

The Peace Party of India, the Bundelkhand Congress and the Apna Dal have come together to forge an alliance named the 'Rashtriya Morcha' to fight the political biggies. The Peace Party was founded by surgeon Mohammad Ayub to unite the Muslims and the Backward classes. Its chief aim is to prevent the political exploitation of these communities by other parties. Actor turned politician Raja Bundela of the Bundela Congress is hopeful that it will do well in the Bundelkhand region. The Khurmi outfit, Apna Dal is hoping to bounce from the set back that it received after the tragic death of its president Sone Lal Patel in a road accident in 2009. The party under Patel's daughter Krishna Patel is hoping to emerge from the shadows of the BSP and muster as many seats as possible. According to the arrangement, the Peace Party would contest a majority of 240 seats and the alliance is hoping to get the Muslim, Dalit, Kshatriya and Khurmi votes. 

Several other regional parties have come together to form a grand alliance, 'Ittehadi Front'. Its major constituents include Bharatiya Samaj Party, Quami Ekta Dal, Ittehad-e-Millet Council, Gondwana Ganatantra Party, Indian Justice Party, Bharatiya Janseva Party and so on. The Front has the blessings of Maulana Syed Salman Nadvi, a member of the All India Muslim Personal law Board. Though the Peace Party and its allies were to be a part of this combine, there were later expelled due to differences over a range of issues. 

Though the issues are many it will be interesting to see how Uttar Pradesh votes. Poll pundits have predicted that the state may be heading towards a hung assembly. Knowing that a friendly government in Lucknow is essential for a sound and stable government in New Delhi, all four major players will give it all to be in contention in the process of government formation. We will have to keep our fingers crossed till 6th March to see who is crowned as the King of Uttar Pradesh. Hopefully the new government will sincerely work to solve the problems that plague the people and make Uttar Pradesh an 'Uttam Pradesh'.

More on the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2012

Battleground UP - Part A

Battleground UP - Part B

SOURCES

(1) First Post - Parties renege on promise; no escaping criminals in UP (Link)

(2) Times of India - Mayawati's plan to divide and rule Uttar Pradesh may be split in four parts (Link)

(3) Times of India - Mayawati sent empty jet to Mumbai for sandals: WikiLeaks (Link)

(4) Yahoo! News - Amar Singh accuses Mulayam of betrayal (Link)

(5) Times of India - Lotus will never bloom again in UP: Kalyan (Link)

(6) Our UP - Bundelkhand Congress, Peace Party, Apna Dal alliance for UP elections 2012 (Link)

(7) India Today - Minor parties gear up to spoil big player's poll outing in Uttar Pradesh (Link)

(8) Milli Gazette - Salman Nadvi blesses 13-party Ittehad Front in UP (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Salman Rushdie

Source - First Post.Life - Hari Kunzu, Amitava Kumar read out from Rushidie's Satanic Verses - (Link)

(2) D P Yadav

Source - News 24 - Akhilesh lacks political maturity - D P Yadav - (Link)

(3) Mayawati's proposal to split Uttar Pradesh

Source - Pravasi Today (Link)

(4) Mayawati's statues

Source : NDTV - UP Polls - Mayawati's statues to be draped today after Election Commission's Order (Link)

(5) RLD's Ajit Singh

Samay Live - Ajit Singh, Nachiketas dismiss Wikileaks claims (Link)

THE STATES THAT MATTER - PART II

BATTLEGROUND UP - Part A

In Indian politics, they say that ‘The road to Delhi goes via Lucknow’. With a population of about 20 crore and an assembly comprising of a staggering 406 seats, it is no doubt that the impact of the political drama played out in the state of Uttar Pradesh, are felt at the Centre. A large number of our national leaders hail from here and the issues that affect the people in the heart of the ‘Hindi heartland’ regularly find resonance in the national Parliament.

Apart from being the cradle of Indian civilization since time immemorial, the state has produced as many as eight Prime Ministers since independence and is also the home to India’s premiere political family – The Nehru-Gandhi family. It was the demolition of the Babri Masjid in the holy town of Ayodhya by Kar-sevaks in 1994 that catapulted the BJP to power, first in UP and then at the Centre. The 80 MPs that represent the state in the Lok Sabha play a crucial role in the permutations and combinations that take place in the process to form and retain Union governments or to stack in the numbers to pass contentious bills. After all, it was the support of the 23 Samajwadi Party MPS that saved the UPA government after the Communist pulled out their support to the Congress-led government citing differences over the nuclear deal. And as the state goes to polls early this year, it is but natural that the assembly polls will be fiercely contested and can make or break the careers of many a political heavyweights.

UP CM and BSP Chief Mayawati (Courtesty: Article)

The incumbent Chief Minister and the BSP supremo, Mayawati will be looking to recreate the magic that brought her to power in the 2007 assembly polls with a clear majority. Her unique experiment of fielding a combination of Dalit and Brahmin candidates, a brain-child of her confidant S C Mishra, dubbed as ‘Social Engineering’, won her the upper caste votes while BSP’s traditional lower caste support base continued to remain loyal to her. Though she has managed to complete her full term and improve the law and order situation in the state, several cases of corruption against her and her ministers, have continued to haunt her government from time to time. The forcible acquisition of land from farmers in Bhatta-Parsaul village in Muzzafarabad district and the agitation that followed, including the death of 4 people in the subsequent police crackdown on the farmer protests, caught nation-wide attention with opposition parties, including the Congress, BJP etc aiming to derive political mileage out of the situation. And of course, the construction of several parks across the state with statues of her, Dr Ambedkar, her mentor Kanshi Ram and her party symbol, the Elephant out of public exchequer has been regularly criticized with her political rival, Mulayam Singh threatening to pull them down if elected to power.

In the 2009 general elections, the ‘Dalit ki beti’ who is today, India’s richest CM, reiterated her desire to become the first Dalit Prime Minister of the country. Although she won 6.7% of the total votes casted and the BSP emerged as the third largest party in terms of vote share, she managed to win a paltry 21 seats, two less than the SP and one less the Congress in UP. While her dream to become the PM was dashed, Maya tried to replicate her 2007 strategy in several other states but with little or no success.

Aiming to retain power for a second consecutive term, Behenji has tried to improve her public image by sacking several ‘corrupt’ ministers from her party including her former close aide, Babu Singh Kushwaha and Avdesh Verma and has denied tickets to many of her ‘non-performing’ MLAs. Instead of talking about her achievements as the state’s CM, which in fact, were few and far in between, Maya’s election campaign is expected to be largely based on the shortcomings of her political opponents and thus projecting herself  as the only viable alternative in the four sided contest. Besides, she has raised the issue of bifurcation of UP into four smaller states, thereby putting other political parties into a tight spot and cut them to size while consolidating her position. Although opinion polls predict a hung assembly, a victory in the upcoming polls will further give wings to her national aspirations and make her a top contender for the leadership of the Third Front in the 2014 general elections, provided its constituents remain loyal to the cause of forming a non-Congress, non-BJP government at the Centre.

SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav (Courtesy: Samajwadi Party)

 At 72, Mulayam Singh Yadav will enter the fray to seek a fourth term as the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. Training his guns at the incumbent CM on the issue of widespread corruption in the Mayawati government, the Samajwadi Party which has christened its poll campaign as ‘Ummed ki cycle’, promising to ‘undo all damage’ caused by the BSP government  in the last five years. The cycle rallies organized across the state have attracted sizable crowds but it remains to be seen whether it translates into votes or not. Amar Singh’s exit has added more credibility to the party whereas the re-entry of his rival and the party’s Muslim face, Azam Khan after being expelled for six years in 2009 for anti-party activities, has boosted the morale of party workers. Realizing that corruption is a major political issue, all thanks to the Anna Hazare movement, the SP has slammed its doors on several ministers who were dropped from the Maya cabinet as they were accused of corruption. However, the lawlessness during his previous tenures and several impending corruption cases against him and his family members are questions that have been regularly raised by Mulayam’s detractors and political opponents.

Leading his party’s 'Kranti Rath Yatra', crown prince and Kannauj MP Akhilesh Yadav has travelled across the length and breadth of UP in a bid to convince people of vote for his party. Although the junior Yadav has denied reports that he is the SP’s Chief Ministerial candidate, a win in the polls will be a shot in the arms and will, for sure, firmly establish his stature as a mass leader. A victory for the Samajwadi Party will also bolster Mulayam’s standing on the political stage ahead of the next national elections. The post poll tie up with the Congress, like in the past, is likely in case of a hung assembly.

Congress leaders Digvijay Singh and Rahul Gandhi (Courtesy: Hindu) 

Excluding the Jagdambika Pal government that was termed ‘unconstitutional’ by the Supreme Court in 1998 after three days in office, the Congress has effectively remained out of power in Lucknow in last 22 years. The fortunes of the party have dwindled over the years and its support base has been largely reduced to areas like Rae Bareily and Amethi - the Nehru-Gandhi bastions.

However, the 2009 general elections saw a revival of the party as it won an amazing 22 seats to emerge as the second largest party in the terms of the total seats won in Uttar Pradesh. The party leaders gave the credit of this surprising success to Rahul Baba’s campaign and urged him to work towards strengthening the party’s state unit. Over the last few years, he has never missed any opportunity to hit out at the Mayawati government, accusing the 'Elephant' in Lucknow of eating up all the cenral funds allocated to the state by the UPA government. He along with the Congress general secretary and ‘drama-king’, Digvijay Singh led an agitation against the police atrocities in Bhatta-Parsaul. However, the so-called youth icon’s claims that 70 farmers had died in the police crackdown and several of their women were raped, could not be backed with any substantial evidence and like in the past, the senior party leaders had to step in to defend the Gandhi scion.

Though chances of Congress retuning to power, in spite of a pre poll alliance with Ajit Singh’s RLD, look bleak, the party will try to muster as many seats as possible and will for sure win more seats than in 2007, when it was reduced to just 22. A good performance by the Congress will be a major milestone in Rahul's journey towards the PM's chair whereas a poor show will give the opposition another reason to belittle the Congress's Yuvraj. A post poll tie up with the SP is a realistic possibility and will be a win-win situation for both the parties. While Mulayam will fulfill his political aspirations in UP, the entry of the SP into the UPA will boost its strength and reduce the Congress’s dependence on the mercurial TMC chief Mamata Bannerji. Also, the tie up will help the Congress-led government to push its own version of the Lokpal Bill on the upcoming Parliamentary session as it will have the necessary numbers in both the Houses and prevent further embarrassment from the Opposition and civil society members over the issue.

BJP leaders Arun Jaitley and L K Advani (Courtesy: India Today)

The BJP which grew out of UP to become the alternative to the Congress has seen the highs and the lows in the state in the last two decades. In its zenith, the saffron outfit ruled the state on its own under Kalyan Singh and tied up several times with BSP but this ‘marriage of political convenience’ has been short lived and has ended up in public fallout followed by mud-slinging from both sides. The BJP today has no prominent leader in the state who can mesmerize the crowds like former PM Atal Behari Vajpayee did during his political career. Murali Manohar Joshi, Lalji Tandon and Ranjnath Singh lack the charisma and support base to take on the likes of Mulayam and Mayawati. In the 2007 assembly polls, the BSP ate into the BJP’s traditional upper caste vote bank, thereby reducing it to just 50 odd seats. The alleged inflammatory speech by Varun Gandhi boomeranged on the party as the Muslim votes polarized in favor of the Congress in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, and the party finished fourth in spite of an alliance with the Kurmi outfit, Apna Dal.

Hindutva leader Uma Bharati, who was re-inducted into the party after being dismissed for her on camera spat with Advani has been made in-charge of the UP poll campaign. The party’s image took a beating when it embraced former BSP leader, Kushwaha in spite of corruption charges against him. Though the party has tried some damage control by keeping the former state minister’s primary membership on hold for the time being, it has lost the moral high ground on the issue of corruption. As such the BJP’s tirade against Congress over the scams in the UPA regime and its failure to draft a ‘strong’ Lokpal Bill may find few, if not no takers. Also, Kushwaha’s entry has drawn criticism from all quarter, including the state unit, the Sangh Parivar and NDA allies. Like the Congress, the BJP too has no realistic chance of coming to power on its own in UP. Rather it will hope to retain its present number tally or at best, try to win around 80 to 100 seats and may end up aligning with the BSP.

While the largest state of the world’s largest democracy goes to polls, the Election Commission of India has an uphill task to ensure that the exercise is conducted in a free and fair manner and the code of conducted is adhered to by all candidates. Considering the sheer massiveness of the state and the hooliganism that has infested it in the past, the EC has decided to conduct the elections in seven phases starting from 8^th February to 3^rd March. Will Mayawati’s ‘Social Engineering’ work for the second time or will Mulayam ride his way to the legislative assembly on the SP’s cycle? Will Rahul Gandhi’s charisma translate into votes for the Congress or will the BJP retain lost ground in the state? These and all other questions will be answered on 6^th March (The States That Matter - Part VII) as the votes are counted and the results are announced.

More on the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2012

The States That Matter V - Part B

The States That Matter V - Part C 

IMAGES

(1) UP CM and BSP Chief Mayawati (Courtesy: Article) (Link)

Source: Elephant Giving Nightmares to Rahul 

(2) Samajwadi Party leader Mulayum Singh Yadav (Courtesy: Samajwadi Party) (Link)

Source: Samajwadi Party

(3) Congress leaders Digvijay Singh and Rahul Gandhi (Courtesy: Hindu) (Link)

Source: The Hindu - UP polls: Congress for aggressive campaigning

(4) BJP leaders Arun Jaitely and L K Advani (Courtesy: India Today) (Link)

Source: India Today