THE STATES THAT MATTER - PART VII

THE RESULTS - AN OVERVIEW

Ending months of high voltage political drama, accusations, counter-accusations and mud-slinging, the results of the much awaited legislative assembly elections held between January and March in five Indian states were announced on 6th March, 2012. Earlier, beating all expectations, the electorate had come out in large numbers to choose their representatives, re-affirming their faith in the Indian democracy. However, the result pattern, cutting across all states did throw in a number of surprises, even to the most seasoned political pundits who had covered myriad elections over the years. Apart from a high voter turnout, the state elections did witness many heavyweights disappear into the oblivion whereas several young netas emerged to shine like stars on the horizon of Indian politics. Though many tainted nominees did make the cut, the electorate did boot out a size able number of controversial candidates. The masses voted for development as traditional electoral issues like caste and religion took a back burner. With the two major national parties underperforming, the momentum grew in favor of a non-Congress, non-BJP coalition - The Third Front that has been doing the rounds for a considerable period of time.   

Akhilesh Yadav was sworn in as the youngest CM of Uttar Pradesh

For the second consecutive time in a row, the mega state of Uttar Pradesh elected a party with a simple majority, squashing all speculations of a hung assembly and unholy alliances between parties of conflicting ideologies (read Congress-SP or BJP-BSP), formed purely for political gains. The Samajwadi Party, fighting the polls under the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav swept the polls winning a whopping 225 out of the 403 seats, the highest in its history. Though its true that there was a wave of discontent against the Mayawati government, the young leader is credited to be the 'real architect' of the SP's splendid performance as he garnered the anti-BSP votes into his party's kitty in spite of a 'strong' campaign by the two national parties - the Congress and the BJP who were seeing the polls as an opportunity to re-invent themselves in the state. 

While the myriad corruption scandals and lack of development under the Maya regime had significantly dented her prospects of a second consecutive term, the junior Yadav's spirited attempt to connect with the masses on the ground and a host of conscious decisions taken by him to improve his party's image seem to have gone well with the electorate. Besides vetoing against D P Yadav's entry into his outfit, Akhilesh made it clear during his popular cycle rallies that his party, if elected to power would curb goonda raj - a 'hallmark' of the Samajawadi politics during its previous terms. Realizing that their anti-technology or anti-English rhetoric may not impress the urban voter, the foreign educated Akhilesh promised free tablets and laptops for all students who pass class X and class XII exams respectively. In a move that has won him thousands of admirers, Akhilesh in an interview to the media after the resounding triumph, said that he would not raze Maya's statues, a stark contradiction to the his father's comments in this regard some weeks earlier, signaling perhaps, a new sense of maturity in the murky 'rajneeti' of UP and bringing an end to the politics of vendetta.

On the other hand, Mayawati paid the ultimate price for remaining aloof of the sufferings of the people on the ground with the BSP being reduced to just 80 seats. The host of corruption scandals and her affluent ways like wasting of public money on the constructions of her statues didn't seem to go unnoticed with the electorate, determined to teach the 'Dalit ki Beti' a lesson which she would not forget so soon. Though Maya did try to get an image makeover by dropping several of her ministers and sitting MLAs and resorted to 'Social Engineering' to exploit the caste factor to her advantage, her unimpressive report card over the last five years meant that the public didn't fall for her cheap tricks this time around.

For the national parties the wait to regain lost ground in India's most populous state seems to be extended by another five years. Though the early leads indicated that the BJP could dislodge the BSP to emerge as the second largest party in the assembly, the performance of the saffron outfit plateaued and and then declined to 47 seats, four less than the last polls. The BJP high command's decision to rope in its Hindutva icon and OBC face Uma Bharati failed miserably as the party failed to capitalize on the failures of both the state and central governments. While the Congress's performance was better when compared to 2007, the hype generated around Rahul Gandhi by the media in general and the Congress leaders in particular failed to translate into votes. Thus what was supposed to be the most important day in Baba's short and unimpressive political career so far proved to be a major embarrassment for the party already troubled by allegations of corruption at the Centre. Ironically while the party had finished second in terms of seats in the 2009 General elections in the state, it did badly even in the traditional Nehru-Gandhi bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareily.

Parkash and Sukhbir Badal retained Punjab

While Mulayam and Akhilesh took the Samajwadi Party home in Uttar Pradesh, another father-son duo, that of Parkash and Sukhbir Singh Badal created history in the state of Punjab by being the first government to retain power in nearly four decades. Though there were several cases of corruption against the Badals during their previous schemes, the last government took concrete steps towards development including the popular Atta-Dal scheme which provides flour and pulses at subsidized rates to the poor, thus seeing off the threat posed by the opposition Congress and the PPP. Besides the relatively good performance by the previous SAD-BJP regime, the dynamic image of the Akali crown prince and Deputy CM Sukhbir combined with the skills and experience of CM Parkash Singh Badal won the SAD a total of 56 seats, falling just 3 short of a simple majority on its own. After being reduced to just 4 seats in the last Lok Sabha polls, the Akalis seem to have learnt from their mistakes and did their homework well prior to the assembly polls, which was reflected in their excellent figures.

The SAD's alliance partner, the BJP whose image took a beating following raids on several of their state ministers by the CBI and friction amongst its leaders slipped from 19 to just 12 seats. While it is true that the it was a herculean tasks for the party to even come close to its out of the skins performance last time around, considering its sorry state of affairs at all levels, the party needs to take corrective measures soon to remain afloat in the state especially at a time when the Akalis are trying hard to woo the minority Hindu community - a traditional BJP vote bank. 

The Congress party's fortunes in the state were dashed primarily due to faulty distribution of tickets and the large number of rebels that were in fray across the state. Hoping to end infighting amongst the state leaders, Rahul Gandhi, during his election campaign had made it clear that former CM Amarinder Singh would be the party's nominee for the top post in case it manages to come to power in 2012. The Congress's hopes also depended largely on the Manpreet Singh Badal led PPP splitting the traditional Akali vote on the lines of the MNS in Maharashtra. However, with the PPP drawing a blank on its debut and the Congress failing to capitalize on the shortfalls of the Badal regime, it was a rather easy victory for the octogenarian leader. 

BJP's Khanduri lost to S S Negi of Congress

The state of Uttarakhand witnessed a close contest as both the BJP and the Congress failed to get a clear majority. The saffron outfit, fighting a strong wave of anti-incumbency and a long list of scams under the erstwhile CM Ramesh Pokhriyal tried hard to woo the voters by replacing the former by B C Khanduri. The new CM, who had been axed following the party's disastrous performance in 2009, enhanced the BJP's poll prospects by passing several key legislation including Anna Hazare's Jan Lokpal Bill. Surprisingly, while the 'Khanduri hain Zarori' campaign of the saffron outfit may have prevented a complete rout, the former CM lost the Kotdwar assembly seat to S S Negi of the Congress adding salt to the injury of the BJP.

Although the Congress managed to increase its tally from 21 to 32 assembly seats, the party needs to contemplate as to what went wrong in the manner in which it fought the Uttarakhand polls. In what should have been a cake walk for the party, the Congress nearly lost out to the BJP owing to the differences between its many chief ministerial aspirants and the rebels contesting as independent candidates. A simple math shows that it could have easily won atleast 5 to 10 seats more if the rebels had been placated before the state went to polls.

The key to the government formation in the hill state now depends on the 7 MLAs who have made the cut while contesting on a non-BJP and non-Congress ticket. The BSP has lost 5 seats but has still managed to finish at a tally of three. The Panwar faction of the UKKD has won a single seat whereas three independents, all former Congressmen have won from their constituencies. With the victorious rebels showing inclinations of supporting their former party and the UKKD(P) making it clear that they would not support the BJP, the stage is set for the Congress to come back to power after five years in Uttarakhand.

Okram Ibobi Singh won a straight third term

After the flop show in UP, the ignominious defeat in Punjab and a mess in Uttarakhand, the only consolation for the Congress came from the North-Eastern state of Manipur where it single handedly won  70% of the seats, a rise of 12 seats as compared to the previous polls. In fact, there were several hurdles that CM Okram Ibobi Singh had to overcome to get a continuous third term in Imphal. A conglomerate of seven underground groups had warned the people against voting for the party. Besides, many parties including MPP, NCP, rivals - JD(U) and RJD and Left Front had joined hands to bring down the Ibobi government. However, in the end, not only did the Congress improve its tally, the united Opposition was decimated and it managed to win only a single seat. 

The Manipur State Congress Party (MSCP) which was reduced to 0 seats in 2007 grabbed 5 seats whereas the Naga People's Front (NPF) did well in the Naga dominated regions to finish with 4 seats.  Mamata Bannerjee's impressive campaigning in Manipur seems to have paid off as the Trinamool, which like the NPF is a new entrant in the state politics won 7 seats on debut and will be the principal Opposition in the new assembly.

While it was Manipur for the Congress, Goa saved the blushes for the BJP which was voted out of power in Uttarakhand and whose performance both in UP and Punjab was below par to say the least. Under former CM Manohar Parrikar, the saffron outfit bagged 21 seats and winning a simple majority on its own for the first time in the coastal state. Its coalition partner the MGP won three seats, thereby managing to retain its political symbol. With two independents supported by the BJP also making the cut, the strength of the new government is set to be 26 in a house of 40 members.

Parrikar led BJP to a spectacular victory

The Congress which was in power since 2005 was dealt a severe blow with several of its key leaders losing to new faces fielded by the BJP-MGP combine. The inability of the government to deal effectively against illegal mining and the distribution of tickets to several members of the same family were the prime reasons that led to the downfall of the Congress. Meanwhile, its coalition partner the NCP failed even to open its account. The Goa Vikas Party (GVP), fighting the elections in agreement with the UGDP bagged 2 seats whereas independents won in five constituencies.

The elections results have thrown in a mixed bag and two years prior to the next General elections, it is not much clear as to which national alliance - the ruling UPA or the NDA has the edge. Neither the Congress nor the BJP seem to have anything much to cheer about from the assembly election results. Sensing this as a proper opportunity, the advocates of the Third Front are trying hard to woo the constituents of the big coalitions in a bid to strengthen their numbers. With political re-alignments expected in the aftermath of the results, it looks like the political battle for the 2014 elections may just have begun.

IMAGES

(1) Akhilesh Yadav was sworn in as the youngest CM of Uttar Pradesh (Link) 

Source: India Today - Election Results - Akhilesh pedals Samajwadi Party to victory in Uttar Pradesh

(2) Parkash and Sukhbir Singh Badal retained Punjab (Link) 

Source: Samay Live - Badal to be sworn in as Punjab CM on March 14th

(3) BJP's Khanduri lost to S S Negi of Congress (Link) 

Source: Hillpost - Khanduri improves party position but fails to win

(4) Ikram Obibi Singh won a straight third term (Link) 

Source: Today News - Assembly polls - Big Winners and Big Losers

(5) Parrikar led the BJP to a spectacular victory Parrikar (Link) 

Source: HeraldGoa - I will not become CM if forced to take support of undesirable elements  

THE STATES THAT MATTER - PART VI

BATTLEGROUND GOA

The last state that goes to polls in the first round of the assembly elections in 2012 is the small yet beautiful state of Goa. Known for its blue waters, pristine beaches, grand churches and magnificent temples, the most picturesque of all states in the Indian Union attracts a large number of tourists each year. With a small population and a good literacy rate, Goa is considered as one of the best states to live in. Due to the fact that the state formed a part of Portugal for over 450 years, the Goan culture, characterized by sushegaad or easy going attitude is a unique blend of Indian and Portuguese elements. 

Goa CM Digamber Kamat

Though the state celebrated 50 years of liberation on 19 December last year, there has been a steady rise in the discontent amongst the local populace as many of the problems that continue to haunt them have not yet been resolved. While the state is miles ahead of several other in terms of development, it has also acquired the dubious distinction of being a politically volatile state. In an assembly comprising of just 40 members, poaching of MLAs, horse trading and side switching are very common. The state has seen as many as 19 Chief Ministers in the last 5 decades, with some like Ravi Naik and Churchill Alemao serving for as few as six and eighteen days respectively. With both the culture and environment of Goa under threat, the upcoming polls are being looked upon by the electorate as extremely crucial for the future of the state.

Like in neighboring Karnataka, illegal mining which has stripped many parts of the state of its green cover is likely to be the most dominant issue in the upcoming polls. Many parts of the state like Bicholim in North Goa and Salcette, Sanguem and Quepem in South Goa are rich in minerals like iron, manganese and bauxite. However, over the years, the mining heavyweights in connivance with politicians have indulged in illegal mining, robbing the state exchequer and flouting all environmental and wildlife clearances.

A report by a committee in this regard headed by the then PAC chairman and Leader of Opposition Manohar Parrikar has criticized the Congress led state government of doing very little to curb this menace. With four member of the committee, three Congressmen and one MLA of the MGP – a coalition partner in the government, refusing to sign the report, Speaker Pratapsing Rane did not table it. Accusing the BJP leader of leaking the report, the Speaker reconstituted the PAC and replaced Parrikar with BJP MLA from South, Vijay Pai Khot who was seen as being close to the CM and in fact, switched over to the Congress a few months later. Another report by Justice M B Shah is said to have found evidence that most of the mine owners were extracting more resources than permissible under the law mainly to satisfy the demands of the Chinese markets. The Shah report is also believed to have indicted several prominent members of the state government of profiting from this flourishing trade at the cost of Goa and its people. Like Parrikar’s report, the Shah report has not yet been published, and sources suggest that Shah may be relieved of his consignment soon to prevent further embarrassment to the party.

With Goa’s CM Digamber Kamat serving as the state’s Minister for mines for a whopping 12 years, many believe that he has played a key role in promoting and shielding the mining mafia. Apart from Kamat, several Congressmen including Vishwajeet Rane (Health), Joaquim Alemao (Urban Development) and GPCC President Subash Shirodkar are either, directly or indirectly, connected to the mining industry. Though the BJP has made a huge hue and cry over this issue, its candidates in the mining rich areas of Sanguem, Curchorem, Sanvordem and Bicholim have interests in the mining and allied sectors, like that of the ruling Congress.

The issue of non-Goan migrants endangering Goa’s unique culture and identity has led to discontent among the locals. Thanks to tourism, mining and construction industries, many skilled and unskilled laborers from all over the country are being attracted to the state to make a quick buck. With influx of migrants increasing day by day, the locals believe that they might end up becoming a minority in their own state. This has fuelled the sons of the soil movement, which is gathering momentum gradually. A large number of non-Goans being accused of indulging in anti-social activities has made the matter worse. Though the agitation has largely been peaceful, it could take a violent turn anytime in the future. On these lines, the demand for special status to Goa, like several North Eastern states has been growing over the years. However, the Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has dismissed such demands while adding that financial assistance to the state from the Centre may be increased. Even the BJP has not made any such promise in their manifesto.

BJP leader Manohar Parrikar

Closely related to the above issue, is the threat posed by real estate agents or the ‘land sharks’ that have cropped up in the state in the last one and half decade, hell bent on selling off Goa’s most priced resource – land to the highest payer. With the rich and middle class Indians preferring to buy their second homes in this popular tourist destination, the price of land, not only along the coast but even in the remotest corners of the state has sky rocketed. Several ministers and bureaucrats have been accused of pocketing massive sums of money to convert forest and agricultural land into commercial property. Besides, the Russian mafia is said to have acquired large stretches of land in Morjim which has become the hub of drugs and sex trade. The clout of the mafia can be inferred from the fact that the former Director General of Police (DGP) of Goa, Aditya Arya was transferred out of the state, alleged for his tough stand on his issue, apart from a series of other differences with the government.

The Regional Plan 2011 (RP 2011) which provided a framework for land conversion in the state in the coming years had become a major issue against the Congress government in 2007 elections. With ministers accused of getting huge kickbacks from the builders lobby, the Goa Bachao Abhiyan (GBA) under social activist Dr. Oscar Rebello launched a massive agitation asking for scrapping the proposal which received state wide support, most notably from the Catholic community. Even former CM Churchill Alemao quit the Congress and floated his own party, the Save Goa Front. Though he managed to beat Congress candidate and another former CM Luizinho Faleiro from Navelim, his party managed to get only two seats while the Congress got 16. After the new CM Digamber Kamat scrapped RP 2011, Churchill merged his party into the Congress and was made the PWD minister in the new government.

Unlike in 2007, the state government has involved several prominent architects, planners and members of the GBA to frame the Regional Plan 2021 (RP 2021), aiming to bring in transparency that was absent last time around. Much to the disappointment of the Congress-NCP government, voices against RP 2021 are getting louder. Bad boys of Goan politics, Education minister Babush Monseratte and Health minister Vishwajeet Rane are largely blamed for colluding with builders to de-notify vast acres of land for personal gains.

Another weapon in the arsenal of the BJP is the medium of instruction (MoI) at the primary level, which made the headlines in the state for a significant part of 2011. According to the Right to Education Act constituted by the Parliament, every child is to be provided in his mother tongue, which in this case is Konkani, in his neighborhood. When the Goa assembly was to ratify this Act, the Force for Rights of Children’s Education (FORCE) in association with several Catholic organizations asked the government to provide grants even to schools that use English as the MoI at the primary level, claiming that the choice should be left to the parents to decide as to which medium their child should study in. However the Bharatiya Bhasha Suraksha Manch (BBSM), headed by another former CM Sashikala Kakodkar in association with several freedom fighters has opposed any such move claiming that MoI should either be Konkani or Marathi. They say that providing grants to English might lead to extinction of regional languages and ultimately, the Goan culture in the future.

Initially the state government announced that it would only give grants to schools that use Konkani or Marathi as MoI. However, it later succumbed to the demands of the English lobby and decided to give grants to even those schools that conduct primary classes in English provided that they even have Konkani and Marathi sections. This triggered a series of demonstrations from the BBSM and the BJP. Even the MGP, a coalition partner in the government expressed its displease over the decision but continued to be its part. The Kamat government’s flip flops and indecisiveness over the MoI has drawn flaks from all quarters.

Congress leader Churchill Alemao with daughter Valanka

Continuing its rich tradition of family politics, the Goa unit of the Congress has given tickets to kin of several prominent leaders in the upcoming polls. Justifying the decision, the party in charge of Goa Oscar Fernandes has said that the biggest factor that the party considered while granting tickets has been ‘win ability’. While the Ranes - Pratapsinh from Poriem and son Vishwajeet from Valpoi and the Alemao brothers - Churchill from Navelim and Joaquim from Cuncolim have been retained, Churchill’s daughter Valanka has been allocated a ticket from Benaulim. Joaquim’s son Yuri has managed to bag a NCP seat from Sanguem, making it four tickets to the Alemao family from the Congress-NCP coalition. Besides, the Monserrates - Babush from St Cruz and wife Jennifer from Taleigao, the Naiks – Ravi from Ponda and son Ritesh from Madkai and the Madkaikar brothers - Pandurang from Cumbharjua and brother Dhaku from Priol are the others that have benefited from the Congress policy.

With the government already battling charges of corruption, the Opposition BJP has claimed that if many members of a family are elected, it can lead to centralization of power and more corruption. However, its pre-poll ally, the MGP has retained the Dhawalikar brothers – Sudhin from Marcaim and Deepak from Priol. Meanwhile, the Delhi CM Sheila Dixit has claimed that the Goa model of ticket distributing could be employed elsewhere in case it is successful in the upcoming polls.
Though the BJP is stepping up its attack on the government, the biggest worry for the saffron outfit is the reported rift between two of its most prominent leaders in the state - Manohar Parrikar and the party's lone MP from the state Shripad Naik. Manohar, a two time CM is the only IITian to  become the Chief Minister of any Indian state. Widely regarded as an upright and honest man, he is credited to have launched several welfare programmes during his tenure. However, he is known to be autocratic and stubborn, a fact that people say makes it difficult to work with him. Meanwhile, Shripad Naik has represented the North Goa constituency in the Parliament for several terms.

Party insiders say that Shripad wanted to contest the state elections from Porvorim. While there was little doubt that Naik would romp home to victory, he would surely emerge as a strong rival to Parrikar, which could hamper the BJP's unity and be detrimental to its interest. Initially, when the party refused to allocate a ticket to Shripad, he went to the media and demanded answers from he national leadership. Finally, when the BJP agreed to give him a ticket, he turned down the offer, much to the relief of the high command. The Congress has tried to project the snub to Shripad as the BJP's pro-Brahmin policy. They say that party favored Parrikar over Shripad as the former belongs to the influential Gaud Saraswat Brahmin (GSB) community whereas the latter is a low caste leader.

Considering the fact that the Goa has seen hung assembly in the last few state elections, the smaller regional parties are hoping to play king makers in case the trend continues this time. The NCP which is a partner in the incumbent government has entered into a pre-poll alliance with the Congress and will contest 7 seats. When veteran NCP leader Praful Patel reached Goa to finalize candidates for the seats allocated to it, a host of Congress leaders including Vishwajeet Rane, Ravi Naik, Babush Monserrate and Joaquim Alemao went to him to get seats for their relatives and supporters, who could not be accommodated by their party. While the party retained its incumbent MLAs – Nilkant Halarnkar from Tivim and Jose Philip D’Souza from Vasco, its other candidates include Yuri Alemao (Sangeum), Rudresh Chodankar (Mayem) and Ashish Shirodkar (Mapusa). With so many tickets allocated to acquaintances of the Congressmen, the NCP unit of Goa looks more like a B Team of the Congress. Meanwhile, several state leaders of the party who were denied tickets have shifted over to the BJP or are contesting as independents.

Barge carrying minerals on Mandovi river

The Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), which ruled the state between the 60s to the 80s has seen a steady decline in its fortunes over the years. Perhaps, the biggest blow to the party came when Sashikala Kakodkar broke away from the party and joined the Congress. As the Congress grew from strength to strength, many of the prominent MGP leaders including Pratapsinh Rane and Ramakant Khalap deserted the party. An alliance with BJP in 1994 proved suicidal as the saffron outfit ate into the MGP’s traditional vote share.

The main aim of the party was to merge Goa into Maharashtra which was rejected in an Opinion Poll of 1967. Though the party continued to dominate the state politics post 1967, its ideology remained stagnant and the youth failed to identify with it. Today the MGP is like a fiefdom of the powerful Dhawalikar brothers. Though they were a part of the Congress led coalition government, the MGP broke sensing anti-incumbency and differences over the MoI issue. On the eve of the elections, the MGP has entered into a pre-poll pact with the BJP and will contest 8 seats. The polls are important for the MGP as it needs to get at least 3 seats or 95,000 votes to retain its symbol.

The Goa Vikas Party (GVP) has entered into an alliance with the United Goans Democratic Party (UGDP) to provide a third alternative for the electorate. Former Tourism Minister Mickky Pacheco who broke away from the NCP after problems with the party high command and several Congress ministers, most notably Churchill Alemao. Prime accused in the Nadia murder case, Paccheo is hopeful of spoiling the prospects of several high profile candidates.

The Trinamool Congress (TMC) is a late entrant into Goan politics and the state unit is headed by former CM Dr. Wilfred D’Souza. D’Souza who joined the NCP few years back was hopeful of getting a Congress ticket for his son-in-law Tulio D’Souza. After it became clear that this would not happen, Willy as he is popularly known jumped over to the TMC. Amongst the party’s candidates include several former Congressmen including Sameer Salgaoncar (Mandrem), Savio Coutinho (Margao) and Bandu Desai (Valpoi). While Willy himself will contest from Aldona, Tulio has not been fielded for unknown reasons.

A surprising aspect of the BJP’s election campaign is the conscious effort to reach out to the Catholic community that makes up to 25% of the total population of the state, a traditional Congress vote bank. Parrikar has admitted that the decision to cancel the public holiday on Good Friday was a blunder. The party has also fielded a large number of fresh faces from the Catholic community including Glen Souza Ticlo (Aldona), Carlos Almeida (Vasco), Nilesh Cabral (Curchorem) and Micheal Lobo (Calangute). Besides, Matanhy Saldanha, a minister in the previous BJP government, known for being anti-Congress throughout his political career will contest from Cortalim. The party has retained its only Christian MLA Francisco D’Souza from Mapusa.

Considering that Goa is looked upon as a prestigious state, both the coalitions are putting in all efforts to win the upcoming polls. A victory here may not affect the national politics but will surely be a moral booster for the victors ahead of the other assembly elections. Meanwhile, the regional parties and the many independents are hoping to play a key role in government formation in case the electorate gives a fractured verdict. All are waiting for March 6th results that will determine as to who will be crowned the King of Goa.

SOURCES

(1) NDTV - Report on illegal Goa mining presents crisis for Chief Minister (Link)

(2) The Hindu - Parrikar hopes report on illegal mining in Goa will be tabled today (Link)

(3) Goa News - Parrikar rubbishes leaking PAC report on illegal mining (Link)

(4) Goa News - Cong-BJP field mining businessmen as candidates (Link)

(5) First Post - BJP's Pai Khot repalces Parrikar as Goa PAC chief (Link)

(6)  Goa News - DGP Arya transferred for targeting Russian mafia den in Morjim? (Link)

(7) Navhind Times - Why regional plan deserves support (Link)

(8) RTE - Goa cabinet announces English as MoI (Link)

(9) Goa News - Sheila justifies family tickets (Link)

(10) Goa News - Rane, Ravi, Joaquim lobby in NCP camp (Link)

(11) Wikipedia - Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (Link)

(12) Goa News - Trinamul picks up Sameer, Raut, Savio & Bandu (Link)

(13) Goa News - 'Conscious effort of BJP to reach Christians' (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Goa CM Digamber Kamat

Source: Top News - Goa chief minister asks tourists to follow 'code' for safety (Link)

(2) BJP leader Manohar Parrikar

Source: Zee News - Parrikar govt to classify mining leases in Goa (Link)

(3) Congress leader Churchill Alemao with daughter Valanka

Source: Goal - Churchill Alemao's daughter Valanka Alemao hails Balckburn's visit to India (Link)

(4) Barge carrying minerals on Mandovi river

Source: Goenche - How can we use IT Technology to solve the mining issues in Goa (Link)

THE STATES THAT MATTER - PART V

BATTLEGROUND UP - Part C

Apart from the caste factor, communal politics too has been a hallmark of UP politics. The BJP which rose to prominence after the demolition of the Babri Masjid has promised to construct a Ram temple in Ayodhya in its poll manifesto for 2012. Though nothing was done in this regard during the time that the NDA was in power at the Centre, the party is hoping that Lord Ram may help it regain its lost hold in the state. The move to go to polls in Uttar Pradesh under the leadership of Hindutva firebrand Uma Bharathi is being looked upon by many as an attempt to consolidate the Hindu votes in favor of the saffron outfit, more so, after other parties have promised a list of soaps for the minority community. Also, the party leaders have so far avoided making any provocative statement against the Muslim community, unlike Varun Gandhi in 2009, damaging all prospects of the party.

Salman Rushdie

However, the war to get the Muslim votes, that constitute 20% of UP's population has intensified amongst the other three parties - SP, BSP and Congress. With the Babri Masjid verdict going against the community, anger seems to be simmering within the community. In the past, Mulayam has relied on the Muslim-Yadav votes to come to power in UP. In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, though, a significant chunk of the party's Muslim  support base deserted to the Congress. Realizing that such a trend could be detrimental to his interest in the future, the SP supremo banished Kalyan Singh from the party, who was at the helm of affairs during the demolition of Babri Masjid. Azam Khan who was expelled from the SP due to differences with Amar Singh has been roped back into the party fold, thereby boosting Mulayam's chances of coming to power in UP. Even Behenji has announced a host of initiatives to appease the Muslims community. 

The Congress too has left no stone unturned to impress the Muslim voters. Salman Khurshid, the Minister for Minority Affairs had earlier promised that his party would provide reservations for the Muslims if elected to power in Uttar Pradesh but backtracked his statement after many accused the Congress of playing the minority card to its advantage. The party is also raking the Batla House encounter issue which evokes passion among the Muslims in the state who allege that the police actions were uncalled for and the men who died has no terrorist links whatsoever, for political gains. Rahul has accused the SP and the BSP of not doing enough for the Muslims of the state over the years and has urged them to support him in this elections.  

Ironically, the most high profile victim of the communal politics of UP this time around was well renowned writer, Salman Rushdie. The author of the banned book, Satanic Verses was supposed to come down to India earlier this year to be a part of the Jaipur Literature Fest. However, due to mounting protest from Islamic leaders and fear of losing the Muslim votes in UP, the UPA government was caught in a catch 22 situation as any move to facilitate Rushdie's entry or stay in India would not go well with the minorities. Annoyed by the government's apathy, Rushdie called off his trip claiming that his sources had warned him that assassins had been hired to eliminate him while in Jaipur. Also the Rajasthan government was said to play a key role in the cancellation of video link between Rushdie and the Literature fest. The BJP has accused the UPA of politicizing the whole issue for electoral gains. However, the Sangh Parivar had launched a similar witch hunt against painter M F Hussain some years back, forcing him to flee to London and then accept citizenship of Qatar.

D P Yadav

Though it may have failed on multiple fronts, the BSP government has been credited for improving the law and order situation in Uttar Pradesh. Under the erstwhile Mulayam regime, 'Goonda Raj' was prevalent across the state and the whole system was filled with goons and people with criminal background. However, Maya has been able to sternly deal with this issue and her administration has been relatively cleaner. In fact,  the hooliganism under the SP government has been used by the BSP to counter anti-incumbency. Well aware of the fact that SP's image as a party of goons may cost it dearly in the 2012 polls, Akhilesh Yadav is said to have personally intervened and vetoed against Western UP's don D P Yadav's entry into the Samajwadi Party. 

All major political parties have fielded candidates with criminal records. Prominent amongst these include Kaptan Singh Rajput, Bhagwan Sharma and Mehboob Ali of the SP, Ram Sewak Patel, Indra Pratap Tiwari and Manjo Tiwari of the BSP, Kalawati Bind, Babban Rajbhar and Ajai Rai of the Congress and Radhey Sham Gupta, Lallu Singh and Santram Senger of the BJP. After being snubbed by the SP, D P Yadav has decided to contest as a candidate of the Rashtriya Parivartan Dal. Relatively smaller parties too have followed the precedent set by the larger parties. Dons of Eastern UP Mukhtar Ansari and Brijesh Singh are also in the fray and have got tickets from Qaumi Ekta and Pragatisheel Manav Samaj Party respectively. Khurmi outfit Apna Dal has fielded Munna Bajrangi and Atia Ahmad who have criminal cases against them.

With her eyes on the polls, the Mayawati government passed a resolution in the state assembly asking the Centre to break-up the mega state into four smaller states for administrative purposes.  According to the proposal, the new states would be Poorvanchal (Eastern UP), Harit Pradesh (Western UP), Bundelkhand and Awadh Pradesh (Central UP). Many have questioned Behenji's commitment towards the cause as they believe that the move has ulterior motives. In fact most of the parties seem to have been stumped by Maya's political acumen.

Mayawati's proposal to split Uttar Pradesh

By sending the proposal to the Centre, the BSP has certainly put the ball in the Congress's court. Knowing that the Congress had earlier made a mess of the Telangana statehood issue with different leaders speaking in different tunes, Mayawati has put the Congress on a sticky wicket. In case the Centre approves Maya's proposal, it could open a Pandora's box and demands for statehood from other parts of the country. However, if the government rejects it then Congress will be portrayed as anti-UP by the BSP. As such the party has not yet made its stand clear on this issue. On the other hand, the SP has always opposed any division of the state on the grounds that such a move could diminish the political influence of the state in national politics. The party, which was also against the creation of Uttarakhand has made it clear that it will fight against any division of the state. The BJP which has always supported the creation of smaller states has demanded that the division should be done after setting up a state reorganization committee. 

Another big poll issue this election season is the statues of Mayawati, Kanshi Ram and Dr Ambedkar that have been erected in different places throughout the state by the BSP government with money got from the public exchequer. The BSP supremo has claimed that such a move is in the interest of the lower classes as Dr Ambedkar and BSP founder Kanshi Ram have been looked upon by the ordinary Dalits as their heroes. As far as her own statues are concerned, Behenji says that these were erected according to the wishes of her mentor late Shri Kanshi Ram.  Going a step further, at an election rally in Lucknow, Maya declared that under her government the state's capital was transformed into Paris due to the construction of the parks. 

However, the opposition has been united in condemning this move of the state government. Mulayam Singh has declared publicly that he will bulldoze Mayawati's statues if he comes back to power. Even the BJP has claimed that it will replace Maya's statues with those of spiritual leaders and social reformers. The Election Commission too has asked the Maya regime to cover her statues and that of her party's election symbol, the elephant ahead of the polls. Maya has accused the her opponents and the EC of being biased towards the Dalits and has asked the people to teach the opposition a lesson in the upcoming polls. 

Mayawati's statues

The Mayawati statues have been one of the several self-glorification exercises by the Dalit leader in the last five years. In 2010, the UP CM was presented with a garland of Rs 1000 notes by her ministers at a rally attended by countless admirers. In its India cables, WikiLeaks reported an incident where the BSP leader sent a private jet to Mumbai to fetch sandals of her preferred brand. It also claimed that she had constructed a private road from her house to her office which is cleaned each day and that she employs food tasters as she fears that she may be assassinated by poisoning. Meanwhile, Maya has refuted the allegations and has advised WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange to undergo mental treatment.

The Bhatta-Parsaul agitation against forcible land grabbing by hte BSP government may cost the party, especially in the farming belt of Western UP. Several villagers were allegedly killed by the police in the agitation and their womenfolk were molested. The issue soon snowballed into a huge controversy with the Congress and the BJP trying to use this issue to counter Mayawati. Rahul Gandhi and Digvijay Singh who led a protest march to the village were arrested by the state officials. Rahul claimed to have seen an ash mound where bodies of dead villagers were supposedly burnt by the security staff to cover up the whole incident. However, investigations later proved that such claims were baseless. Even BJP leader Arun Jaitely was arrested before arriving in the village to assess the situation. Sensing that she could lose the support of the farmers from Western UP, Mayawati announced a new land acquisition policy in the state where private parties would themselves acquire land from its owners whwereas the state government would just act as a facilitator. 

Lastly, another peculiar feature of the elections in Uttar Pradesh this time around is the number of smaller parties that are in the fray that could spoil the prospects of several parties. The most prominent among these is the Ajit Singh's RLD. The party has a strong support base in Western UP, especially amongst the Jat farmers. Over the years, the RLD has been in alliance with the SP and the BJP in the past. However, the party walked out of the NDA and joined the UPA in December, 2011. Under the arrangement, Ajit Singh was made the Union Minister for Aviation at the Centre. The Congress is hoping that the pre-poll alliance would benefit both the sides. 

RLD's Ajit Singh

Rashtriya Lokmanch Party's chief Amar Singh is canvassing heavily in different parts of the state for his party's candidates in spite of not keeping well lately, accusing Mulayam Singh of betraying him. The party's main campaigner is Bollywood beauty Jaya Prada who is campaigning in Rampur against the local SP leader and her political foe Azam Khan. Even former CM Kalyan Singh has hit out at other parties while on the campaign trail. He has calimed that the BJP will never be able to come to power in UP. The Jan Kranti Party leader has handed over the reins of his party to his son Ranveer. 

The Peace Party of India, the Bundelkhand Congress and the Apna Dal have come together to forge an alliance named the 'Rashtriya Morcha' to fight the political biggies. The Peace Party was founded by surgeon Mohammad Ayub to unite the Muslims and the Backward classes. Its chief aim is to prevent the political exploitation of these communities by other parties. Actor turned politician Raja Bundela of the Bundela Congress is hopeful that it will do well in the Bundelkhand region. The Khurmi outfit, Apna Dal is hoping to bounce from the set back that it received after the tragic death of its president Sone Lal Patel in a road accident in 2009. The party under Patel's daughter Krishna Patel is hoping to emerge from the shadows of the BSP and muster as many seats as possible. According to the arrangement, the Peace Party would contest a majority of 240 seats and the alliance is hoping to get the Muslim, Dalit, Kshatriya and Khurmi votes. 

Several other regional parties have come together to form a grand alliance, 'Ittehadi Front'. Its major constituents include Bharatiya Samaj Party, Quami Ekta Dal, Ittehad-e-Millet Council, Gondwana Ganatantra Party, Indian Justice Party, Bharatiya Janseva Party and so on. The Front has the blessings of Maulana Syed Salman Nadvi, a member of the All India Muslim Personal law Board. Though the Peace Party and its allies were to be a part of this combine, there were later expelled due to differences over a range of issues. 

Though the issues are many it will be interesting to see how Uttar Pradesh votes. Poll pundits have predicted that the state may be heading towards a hung assembly. Knowing that a friendly government in Lucknow is essential for a sound and stable government in New Delhi, all four major players will give it all to be in contention in the process of government formation. We will have to keep our fingers crossed till 6th March to see who is crowned as the King of Uttar Pradesh. Hopefully the new government will sincerely work to solve the problems that plague the people and make Uttar Pradesh an 'Uttam Pradesh'.

More on the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2012

Battleground UP - Part A

Battleground UP - Part B

SOURCES

(1) First Post - Parties renege on promise; no escaping criminals in UP (Link)

(2) Times of India - Mayawati's plan to divide and rule Uttar Pradesh may be split in four parts (Link)

(3) Times of India - Mayawati sent empty jet to Mumbai for sandals: WikiLeaks (Link)

(4) Yahoo! News - Amar Singh accuses Mulayam of betrayal (Link)

(5) Times of India - Lotus will never bloom again in UP: Kalyan (Link)

(6) Our UP - Bundelkhand Congress, Peace Party, Apna Dal alliance for UP elections 2012 (Link)

(7) India Today - Minor parties gear up to spoil big player's poll outing in Uttar Pradesh (Link)

(8) Milli Gazette - Salman Nadvi blesses 13-party Ittehad Front in UP (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Salman Rushdie

Source - First Post.Life - Hari Kunzu, Amitava Kumar read out from Rushidie's Satanic Verses - (Link)

(2) D P Yadav

Source - News 24 - Akhilesh lacks political maturity - D P Yadav - (Link)

(3) Mayawati's proposal to split Uttar Pradesh

Source - Pravasi Today (Link)

(4) Mayawati's statues

Source : NDTV - UP Polls - Mayawati's statues to be draped today after Election Commission's Order (Link)

(5) RLD's Ajit Singh

Samay Live - Ajit Singh, Nachiketas dismiss Wikileaks claims (Link)