WILL CHANKYA'S NEETI WORK?

NITISH LED 'SECULAR' FRONT TO TAKE ON THE MODI BRIGADE

The JD-U supremo Nitish Kumar who is dubbed by several political analysts as the modern day 'Chanakya' of the Indian political spectrum, pulled off another major political coup earlier this week when his name was declared as the official chief ministerial nominee of the newly formed and 'loosely knit' Janata Parivaar (JP) for the upcoming Bihar polls. With the war of words between the leaders of the state's top two regional parties - the JD-U and the RJD escalating over the past two months, the announcement made by the Janata Parivaar's de-facto chief Mulayum Singh Yadav ended weeks of speculations of a possible break down in the anti-BJP plank even before the elections. In what seemed to be a well choreographed affair, the name of Nitish as the face of the alliance was proposed by none other than his friend turned foe turned friend - Lalu Yadav.

Check Mating Lalu: Like Kautaliya who crafted the downfall of the much powerful Nanda Empire by training his protégé Chandragupta Maurya in the fourth century BC, the incumbent CM too played his cards well in the race to be the 'face' of the grand alliance. Having deposed his self-appointed successor Jitam Ram Manjhi from the helm of affairs after the latter refused to be a mere puppet, Nitish knew very well that the move could hurt him electorally with a section of the influential Maha-Dalit community refusing to back him for having mistreated their leader. Moreover, the lessons of the September 2014 by-polls were not lost on him; for halting the Modi juggernaut it was essential to keep the mega coalition together. At the same time though, to salvage lost pride and to maintain political relevance, it was equally important for him to lead it. With Lalu in the equation and the bitter animosity between the two leaders since the mid 90s being a stuff of legends, this was not going to be easy. Though the RJD chief has been barred from contesting elections after being convicted in the Fodder Scam, he was, or rather he still is, not very keen to fight the polls under the leadership of his one time rival. The Yadav strong man is a master in the art of dirty politics and side lining him was going to be a herculean task within itself.

This is exactly where Nitish displayed his political acumen; fully aware that the Congress, in spite of its moribund state of affairs in Bihar would still play a decisive role in deciding the CM candidate of the coalition, the JD-U chief had a special audience with Rahul Gandhi on a visit to Delhi. It is believed that the Congress Vice President, unlike his mother does not have a good opinion of the RJD chief. On the other hand, he has been vocal about his admiration of Nitish. One can recollect several instances wherein the junior Gandhi had praised the Bihar CM for his secular credentials even while he was an integral part of the NDA. In fact, this move was a master stroke; soon after the meeting, reports from the Congress camp suggested that INC would align with the JD-U irrespective of whether Lalu was with it or not. With the Gandhis turning their back on Lalu, the path was more or less clear for Kumar to head the anti-BJP plank. Moreover, Nitish's image as the man who transformed Bihar from Lalu's 'Jungle Raj' to one of the fastest growing states in India only further strengthened his prospects for the top post. As such, as the leaders of the Janata Parivaar met to discuss the course of action for the polls, the odds were comprehensively stacked in the favor of Nitish, forcing the wily Lalu to eat the humble pie.

The Nitish v/s Modi saga continues: With Kumar leading the mega coalition, the second part of the Modi - Nitish rivalry is all set to be played in the state of Bihar this winter. After walking out of the NDA over the candidature of the then Gujarat CM as the NDA candidate for the post of the Prime Minister, the Bihar CM was left with a bloody nose as Modi mania swept Bihar in May 2014, relegating the JD-U to a ignominious tally of two parliamentary seats. In a bid to save his face, Kumar resigned and handed power to his hand picked successor Jitin Ram Manjhi to appease the Maha Dalit community which voted for the BJP in the General Elections. In the mean time, following the realignment of the political forces in Bihar, Nitish and his new found allies - the RJD and the Congress managed to edge past the BJP by winning 6 of the 10 seats that went for the by-polls, a consolation victory of sorts. Ironically though, months later, as Manjhi transformed from a 'docile' leader into a 'clever' politician refusing to be 'controlled' by his party boss, Nitish expelled him from the JD-U and was himself back as the Bihar CM for the third time. With back to back political blunders, many were wondering if Nitish's astute acumen has deserted him and if his reign as Bihar's most powerful leader were numbered. And the man behind Nitish's unraveling was none other than his bete noire - Narendra Modi.

The Bihar polls is the perfect platform for Bihar CM to settle scores with the PM. A victory for the Janata Parivaar would be a jolt to the Modi bandwagon which hit a major road block when the AAP decimated the saffron party in Delhi earlier this year. A win would help Nitish regain most of the political pride that he had lost in the last two years and would re-establish him as a force to reckon with besides being a major fillip to the merger of the factions of the JP. However, there is a much bigger prize to be won, something that most political analysts have over looked thus far; after the General Polls, there is no 'credible' face to represent the anti-Modi or the non-NDA parties in the political sphere. The most obvious and legitimate choice to fill in this vacancy - Sonia Gandhi is not keeping well whereas the negativity still surrounding Rahul means that most believe that he is not yet 'mature' enough for the job. Regional satraps like Jayalalithaa and Patnaik who managed to fend off the Modi wave in their respective home turfs have been on cordial terms with the new government. Mamata Bannerjee has of late mellowed her anti-Modi rhetoric. The mess around AAP in the recent months has hit Arvind Kejriwal's popularity; the party's influence has not moved beyond the NCR in spite of that fabulous victory in February. A victory for the JP under Nitish would automatically catapult him to being the new anti-Modi face in Indian politics.

The Ground Realities: Though the coalition may have been announced, it remains to be seen how the talks regarding the seat sharing arrangements between the many constituents of this grand alliance progress in the coming weeks. Though the issue of the CM candidate has been settled for now, the basis for seat allocation has become another pain point for the two parties. The RJD wants the 2014 General Elections to be the basis to arrive at the seat sharing formula whereas the JD-U wants it to be the 2010 state polls. A bigger worry for the leaders of the alliance is whether their cadre and workers at the ground level are able to forget all the past differences and work together as a team. Considering the 'hatred' that the JD-U and the RJD have shared in the past, that seems to be a near impossible task. And lastly, will the alliance be able to break the caste barrier? For example, will a Yadav who has a loyal voter of the RJD for decades now vote for a JD-U nominee contesting as a candidate of the JP from his seat? Considering that the Yadavs harbour a special dislike for Kumar for ending their political dominance in Bihar, will they be comfortable with him as the CM candidate? Moreover, it remains to be seen how much damage will the Manjhi mishap cost in terms of the Extremely Backward Caste (EBC) votes. Surely, the modern day 'Chanakya' will have to put in all the 'Neeti' and perhaps, even some 'Kutneeti' to score a memorable hat-trick! 

ONE BIG, HAPPY FAMILY?

WILL THE REGIONAL BRIGADE SURVIVE

Janata Parivar 

Could this be 'Avengers' moment of Indian politics? Much like the movie series wherein several superheroes from the Marvel Comic world come together with the noble aim of saving the world from evil forces, last week, heads of six regional parties who are no less than 'superheroes' in the eyes of their followers joined hands to resurrect the erstwhile Janata Parivar, decades after the party splintered into numerous factions on account of personal rivalry, jealousy and ego hassles between its leadership. Of course, while they may claim that the reason for their coming together is to stop the rise of the 'Fascist' forces (read BJP), there is no doubt that the satraps, who played a key role in the formation of successive regimes in the Coalition Era are fighting for their political survival after being jolted in the General Elections 2014 when the Modi wave broke the traditional barriers of caste and region, something that these leaders and their parties usually thrive upon.

Whatever may be the reason for this realignment of political forces on the political spectrum, what is certain is that merger of the six outfits - the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Janata Dal - United (JD-U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Janata Dal - Secular (JD-S), the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Samajwadi Janata Party (SJP) is all set to have major implications in the years to come, provided these factions stay together which in itself is going to be an herculean task. Though the modalities are being worked upon by a six member committee, former Uttar Pradesh CM and SP supremo Mulayum Singh Yadav has been named as the chief of the Janata Party in its new avtaar.

From the outside, the merger might not sound as 'such a big deal'. After all, the six parties together have 15 MPs in the Lower House of the Parliament and are in no position to stall reforms or counter the government that has a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha. Most of these old warhorses are in the twilight of their political careers with a majority of them being a mere shadow of what they were in their heyday. Besides, the three regional players who withstood the Modi juggernaut namely Jayalalithaa of the AIADMK, Mamata Bannerjee of the TMC and Navin Patnaik of the BJD have kept a safe distance from this new political entity. Thus the influence of the new look Janata Parivar is restricted to UP and Bihar apart from marginal presence in Haryana and Karnataka.

While the regional satraps may still be licking the wounds that they suffered in the May 2014 polls, writing off the new front would be a foolish decision. With the Modi government yet to fulfill most of the promises it made to the public during the course of the electoral campaign, the merger could help consolidate the anti-Modi or anti-BJP vote bank. Considering that many of these leaders including Mulayum Singh, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav have a solid Dalit - Muslim support base, the new front is all set to give tough electoral challenge to a new resurgent BJP ahead of the prestigious Bihar polls which is scheduled later this year. In fact, even in the by-polls held in Bihar and UP last year, the regional parties put up a formidable show against the saffron camp. Buoyed by these results and keen to regain lost ground, the merger will help strengthen the Opposition benches which looks scattered for the time being. Additionally, the party now has 30 MPs in the Rajya Sabha which is nearly half the number that the NDA has as of now, making it a force to reckon with in the Upper House.

The success of the Janata Parivar and its future will largely depend on the results of the Bihar Polls. A victory for the front will be a mega boost for the leadership and will completely stop the Modi bandwagon which received a jolt in the Delhi elections. In that scenario, more regional players would be keen in joining hands with the party either by the way of merger or alliance. The Congress and the Left parties who too are in no situation to take on the BJP at present would be interested in dealing with the Mualyum led party. On the other hand, a defeat at the hands of the BJP though could well bring down the curtains on the Parivar, months after it was formed.

The real threat for the JP is from within; will the Yadavs, the Kumars and the Chautalas bury their bitter past and move on, rather move on as a team? Can Mulayum whose hopes of becoming the PM were dashed by Lalu, ever be able to trust the latter? Can Lalu and Nitish ever be friends? After all, they would call each other all sorts of names till about an year ago, isn't it? Though we do not have any concrete answers to any of questions, what we can be sure of is that the revival of the Janata Parivar has only made Indian politics in general and Bihar polls in particular more interesting.

FRIENDS..... AGAIN

THE IMPACT OF THE REGROUPING OF THE 'SOCIALISTS' ON INDIAN POLITY

Earlier this week, the various fragments of the erstwhile Janata Dal who were literally obliterated in the May Lok Sabha polls decided to join hands in a bid to save their political careers and form a united front against the so-called communal forces led by Modi and a resurgent BJP while being at an arm's length from the Congress which is still battling anti-incumbency in spite of being out of power for over six months. After having played a key role in the formation of successive governments at the Centre for over two decades, these regional satraps found themselves rendered 'political insignificant' after the saffron outfit crossed the halfway mark on its own earlier this year. The Samajwadi Party (SP) which won a decisive mandate in 2012 polls in Uttar Pradesh could not win a single seat outside its family fiefdom as Amit Shah scripted a fairy tale victory for his party in the northern state. The then Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, the self-proclaimed 'upholder' of India's secular ideals was given a mega jolt even as Lalu's much hyped 'comeback' was derailed by Sushil Kumar Modi and his new allies - LJP's Paswan and RSLP's Kushwaha. The misery of other 'former' strongmen namely Deve Gowda and Om Prakash Chautala only compounded further. Now that these 'wise men' of Indian politics have left behind their past differences and agreed to work together, let us for moment ponder as to what implication such a union will have on the politics of the country in the near future.

No prices for guessing as to who benefits the most out of this move. The results of the Bihar by-polls have proved that the only way to effectively counter the Modi-Shah bandwagon is to cobble up coalitions keeping aside bitter rivalries and forgetting ideologies (read 'unholy' alliances). With the state elections scheduled next year, the likes of Nitish, Lalu and Sharad Yadav have to ensure that the anti-BJP vote does not split and the best way to bring together the Maha Dalits, the Yadavs and the Muslims is to revive the Janata Parivaar.

With many expecting Modi to be at the helm of affairs for a long innings, it just makes sense for the regional bigwigs to stick together or risk being out of 'business'. At the same time, many are doubting whether the new outfit could sustain itself; after all, each of these men has a big ego. Moreover, at various times in the past, they have fought and hurled the choicest abuses on each other. Remember those days in the mid 90s when Lalu thwarted Mulayum's dreams of becoming the PM. Perhaps, the biggest hurdle for them will be make sure that they continue to remain united. For the time being, the SP chief is all set to be the leader of the new party; not only does his party have the maximum number of MPs in the Parliament, it also continues to remain in power in UP.

For the first time in many, many years, the prospects of a non-Congress, non-BJP front seem to be more likely than ever. This latest endeavor is different from the Third Front in the sense that all these satraps will now (hopefully) fight under a unified leadership and a common symbol. The BJP certainly has reasons to worry as it makes its task in Bihar all the more difficult. And then, there is the fear of consolidation of the secular votes in the upcoming elections. The saffron outfit has to reconsider its decision of further alienating its allies like the Akalis and the Shiv Sena. The BJP cannot afford to act 'haughty' and 'mistreat' its partners in the NDA, an accusation that many have levied against it in the recent past.

At least the BJP is in power and at present has the arsenal to see off this threat. Spare a thought for the Congress. As if the fact that it is at a historic low and is being led by Rahul Gandhi is not enough, this new formation could relegate the INC to the third position. With the likes of Yadavs and Kumar on the same platform, there is a high probability that the Muslim voters will gravitate away from it, further alienating the grand old party. At a time when the party is desperate to find strong regional allies to take on the government, this new development will reduce its options. Meanwhile, the numbers also gives these leaders more bargaining power in dealing with the Congress.

Lastly, what does this development mean for other political parties in India. The Communists are grinning as they have always been advocating for a strong front consisting of regional players. On the other hand, the three big satraps viz Mamta, Jaya and Patnaik who have managed to beat the saffronists in their backyard are looking at this development very closely. The revival of the Janata Dal (JD) opens a new set of opportunities for them; they will now have three alternatives in the future and will be in a good position to play hard ball. Sharad Pawar who broke his alliance with the Congress just before the Maharashtra state polls too has welcomed this move. The JD will like to get him on board. Ditto with Ajit Singh who was washed out in the Union polls; though he may have his differences with the Chautalas, convincing him to join the front, considering his present political fortunes will be easy. Frankly, if the leaders do manage to win Bihar, I will not be surprised if some of the disgruntled sections within the NDA like the Akalis and Ram Vials Paswan or for that matter, Mayawati decides to do business with the new front. A host of parties including the PDP, the JMM, the TRS, the AIUDF and the AIMIM could be open to work with the JD while resisting a direct merger. In the south, the DMK and the YSRCP will be happy to extend support to the new outfit since they cannot afford to back either of the two national parties at this moment.

ANALYZING THE BY-ELECTIONS

FOUR LESSONS THAT THE BY-POLLS TEACH US

Wow! Who could have predicted this? Less than four months after that landslide victory in favor of the BJP, not many of us would have thought that the results of the by-polls could be so different. As if the 3-0 rout at the hands of the Congress in Uttarakhand was not enough, the defeat in Bihar and the decimation in Uttar Pradesh have put a question mark over the perception that the BJP would make inroads into hitherto unknown lands, riding on Modi Mania. At the same time, the regional players, most of which were obliterated in the General Elections put up a good show, laying to rest 'fears' that the country was heading towards a two-party rule. Besides, the Congress too showed signs of improvement; the 120 odd year old party does have a future in our democracy. Analyzing the results from 14 states that have seen snap polls, here the four key takeaways from the August-September 2014 by-polls.

May 2014 was a victory for Modi, not for the BJP: I remember this one episode during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls when former BJP president Rajnath Singh had to change one of his tweets from 'Abki bar BJP Sarkar' to 'Abki bar Modi Sarkar'. Psephologists and political observers have for months debated whether the magical numbers that the saffron camp got in the General Elections was an endorsement of Modi or a vote for his party or a combination of both. I believe that the by-polls has settled this debate. Nothing else can explain why the BJP fared so badly in the by-elections in spite of that superlative performance it registered less than 150 days ago. There is no doubt that even without Modi the NDA would finish as the largest alliance after the big polls; however, there was no way that it could cross the 200 mark, forget 342. Modi's excellent oratory skills, his charisma an his portrayal as a 'pro-development' leader helped his party move from the Opposition benches to the Treasury benches in the Parliament. Thus the saffron camp was right in breaking ties with Nitish and suppressing the anti-Moi camp lead by Advani.

The Satraps strike back: For all those who wrote the obituaries of the likes of Mulayum, Mayawati, Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar in the aftermath of the May elections, the results of the by-polls have proved the satraps still have a future in the politics of the country, so what if it is not as bright as it was some time back. Bihar witnessed political churning with Lalu's RJD joining hands with Nitish Kumar's JD(U) and the INC to take on the NDA. The Mega-alliance helped the Manjhi government to survive the test on the floor of the state assembly and then went on to beat the NDA 6-4 in the ten constituencies where elections were held in August this year. In neighboring Uttar Pradesh, the ruling Samajwadi Party performed out of its skin to wrests as many as eight seats from the saffron camp. This in spite of the fact that the BJP tried to cash in on communal tensions that have gripped the western parts of UP over the last year.

The revival of the Congress: After being reduced to mere 44 seats in May which saw many of its stalwarts biting the dust, the results of the by-polls have enthused a bit of life in the grand old party which many believe was in its last leg. The rot in the organizational structure is still there and its present leadership is insipid. But a string of rather unexpected victories over its arch rival is what the doctor prescribed the INC ahead of the state polls scheduled later this year. In the hill state of Uttarakhand where in the incumbent regime was looking shaky after the defection of Satpal Maharaj to the BJP ahead of the May elections, the party won swept won all the three seats. In Rajasthan where it was literally bulldozed by the saffronists, first in 2013 and May 2014, the INC bagged three out of the four seats. Similarly, in Karnataka, Gujarat and MP, it managed to bag constituencies held by the BJP. The Congress needs to make sure that the momentum is taken forward; At the same time, it is important to address issues that are plaguing the party and address them at the earliest.

The fight for the states is heating up: After that stupendous win, there were many who felt that the BJP, riding high on its success, would sweep the four states that will see polls being conducted in the near future. In fact, in all these states, the saffron outfit put up an impressive show - the NDA won 42 of the 48 seats in Maharashtra; seven of its 10 candidates were elected in Haryana; it created history and swept Jammu while painting the national capital in orange. As such, it was expected that the party would not find it difficult to win all of these states. However, the results of the by-polls has put the BJP on the back foot and has shaken the confidence of its supporters. The break-up of the 25 year old BJP-Shiv Sena alliance has made matters worse in the western state. In Haryana too, the Bishnoi led HJC has pulled the plug on its coalition with the BJP. In Delhi, the AAP's string operation has 'exposed' the party's back door efforts to bag power. Besides, in Jammu Kashmir, the PDP seems to be edging the saffron outfit.

For more on the August-September 2014 By-polls, click here (Link)

WILL BIHAR STOP THE MODI MANIA?

AUGUST BY-POLLS WILL BE THE FIRST REAL TEST OF MODI SARKAR

Courtesy: Times of India

It has been nearly 100 days since Narendra Modi led the BJP to a handsome victory in the May 2014 General Elections. The magnitude of the win was such that a lot was expected from the former Gujarat CM after he shifted his base to New Delhi. With 282 seats in the Lower House of the Parliament, many thought that the new regime would pass certain key reforms since it was free from all sort of 'political compulsions' that the previous Central governments were subjected to by their allies. A look back at Modi's innings so far reveals that his report card has been average so far. On one side, the Centre has taken a firm stand on our Foreign Policy. The recent cancellation of Secretary level talks with Pakistan apart, the invitation to the SAARC Head of States at the time of Modi's swearing in and his visits to Bhutan and Nepal indicate a clear thought process in India's dealings with other nations in the neighborhood, something that the UPA regime hopelessly lacked. His interaction with the soldiers posted in Jammu Kashmir recently too has been appreciated. The markets also have responded well. However, one should also remember that the recent spike in incidents of communal clashes coupled with irresponsible statements made by some in the BJP and the Sangh Parivar has raised doubts about the intentions of Modi Sarkar. Prices of certain essential commodities continue to remain high whereas crime against women have increased to rise in recent months. At this juncture, the by-polls in four states will be a good indication to see if the Modi mania that had gripped the nation at least for the first half of the year continues to remain strong or not. Besides, with the recent realignment of political forces in Bihar, the results of these elections will also have a major impact on the strategies that the parties adopt in the next four months wherein at least four states will go to the polls.

With Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav joining hands, the political equations in the state of Bihar have been completely redrawn. The NDA's superlative performance here in May this year where it won 31 out of the 40 seats has raised serious question mark over the political future of the two former CMs of the state. With the JD-U being reduced to mere two seats, many believed that the Kurmi leader's decision to part ways with the BJP was a political blunder and the move would herald his downfall. Similarly, question marks were being raised about Lalu Yadav's relevance in state politics after the RJD could only bag 5 seats in spite of an alliance with the Congress. Aware of the fact that they had to work together to save their political careers, two of Bihar's biggest politicians dissolved their differences spanning nearly two decades and joined forces to combat a resilient saffron outfit which is looking much stronger following the May results. The Congress too decided to lent its support to the cause of thwarting the Modi bandwagon. In fact, this rather 'unholy' alliance has already won a few skirmishes with the NDA. After the resignation of Nitish Kumar as the CM of the state following the JD-U's rout in the Lok Sabha, the three parties worked together to make sure that the new government under the leadership of Jitan Ram Manjhi would survive the test on the floor of the state assembly. Moreover, the allies also fought the elections to the Upper House of the Parliament together and won.

With ten seats namely Narkatiaganj, Rajnagar, Jale, Chapra, Hajipur, Mohiuddinagar, Parbatta, Bhagalpur Banka and Mohania on the line, the Bihar by-polls will for sure be as intensely fought as the General Elections three months ago. In fact, the bearing that the results may have on the political scenario of Bihar is unprecedented, considering the fact that the state is scheduled to go to polls next year. Firstly, having jumped into the electoral fray together, the results will indicate if the masses have given their consent to the JD(U)-RJD combine. If the two new partners do well, they would contemplate continuing the alliance in the next state assembly elections too. On the other hand, a flop show would put serious question mark over the future of this partnership. Actually, several leaders in the JD-U have already hit out at Nitish for sealing the deal with the same party which he had earlier accused of hampering the growth of the state when it was in power. Similarly, the by-polls will also be an acid test for saffron leader Sushil Kumar Modi. With PM Narendra Modi not campaigning in the state, the outcome will also prove if the former Home Minister has the mettle and the support base to lead the saffron outfit in 2015. Finally, the victory of the former Kumar and Yadav, that is if it comes true, could also start a new trend in the country wherein regional rivals open up a united front against the BJP. The RJD supremo had already asked Mayawatiand Mulayum Singh Yadav to join hands to prevent the rise of the 'Fascist forces' in Lucknow, an idea which was considered by the SP chief but flatly rejected by Behenji. A good showing by the 'Mandal forces' may force the Dalit icon to rethink her decision.

Down south, in Karnataka, it is the Congress which is on the back foot. After registering a massive victory in the 2013 elections to the Vidhan Soudha when it swept away all the Opposition, the INC was delivered a rude shock as the BJP, now reinforced with the merger of the KJP and the BSR Congress into it, won nearly twice as many seats as the grand old party. The victory of former CM B S Yeddyurappa from Shimoga and his former cabinet colleague B S Sriramalu from Bellary has necessitated polls in the Shikaripura and Bellary(Rural) respectively. The third seat - Chikkodi-Sadalga was won by the Congress candidate Prakash Hukkeri who too made the cut to the Lok Sabha. The by-elections have become a prestige issue for CM Siddaramaih who has campaigned extensively in the three seats after there were rumors of discontent against him within the party. Though he may enjoy the complete faith of president Sonia Gandhi, he would prefer to silence his critics within the Congress ranks. With the Deve Gowda led JD-S refusing to field any candidates citing paucity of funds, the fight is between the two major national parties. Having been made the party's national vice president few days ago, it remains to be seen if the former KJP chief could pass on the electoral baton to his son B S Raghavendra who is contesting the polls as a BJP candidate. Likewise, the saffron nominee from Bellary is Sriramalu aide Obalesh. Besides the incumbent CM, the by-polls are also important for the two saffron leaders.

Like Siddaramaih, Punjab CM Parkash Singh Badal too is jittery ahead of the by-elections to the seats of Talwandi-Salboo and Patiala. If the results of the General Elections are anything to go by, the Akalis are certainly going to have a tough time in winning the two seats. If there was one party in the NDA which will be disappointed after the May 16 results, it has to be the SAD. Strong anti-incumbency against the Punjab government was the reason that the NDA could only win six of the 13 parliamentary seats from the north-western state. In fact, after the defeat of the Finance minister Arun Jaitley from Amritsar, Akali leader Naresh Gujral was frank enough to admit that the DDCA chief was paying the price for the failure of the incumbent regime. Meanwhile, the resignation of former CM Captain Amarinder Singh from the Patiala constituency following his victory over Jaitley and the defection of Talwandi-Sabo MLA Jeet Mohinder Singh to the SAD camp has resulted in the by-polls for the two constituencies. For both, the Badals as well as the Congress, a victory will be more of a morale booster since the incumbent regime has the necessary numbers on its side. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) which surprised everyone by bagging four parliamentary seats here will be the one to watch out for. It remains to be seen if the recent turmoil within the AAP will harm its chances in the only state where it is presently strong.

Lastly, elections will also be held for three seats - Vijayraghavgarh, Bahoriband and Agar in Madhya Pradesh. After sweeping the state late last year and winning a large majority of seats in the parliamentary polls, the saffron outfit is expected to bag all three seats. However, the multi-crore entrance scam came in the limelight has become a major embarrassment for MP CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan and his party. After filing a defamation case against Congress spokesperson K K Mishra is looking to extract revenge on the INC which is using this as an issue to make a comeback. And what better way to do this than winning these by-polls. As if the allegations from the Opposition benches were not enough, Union Minister and Shivraj's rival within the saffron camp - Uma Bharati too had demanded a probe into the entire fiasco. All these things apart, the BJP is expected to win all of these constituencies like it did in the last state elections. Meanwhile, the results of the by-elections in MP and other states will be out on 25^th August.

For more on the August-September 2014 By-polls, click here (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Times of India
Original: Times of India - Regrouped Lalu, Nitish take on BJP in Bihar bypoll today (Link)

BIHAR & LOK SABHA 2014

NDA vs UPA vs THIRD FRONT

The 2014 General Elections in Bihar in many ways, personifies the whole national picture. Many believe that there are three broad formations that are capable of forming the next government in the country. The ruling UPA regime led by the Congress, having ruled the country for two consecutive terms, is the first contender for power. The BJP led NDA is hoping to make a strong comeback under the leadership of a combative Narendra Modi. And then there is the 'Third Front', a confederation of regional satraps keen to keep the tow national parties out of power (Link). While my views on this are known, there are still a few, who buy this idea. Now, coming back to Bihar, you can see that it is one of the few states where all of these three coalitions are strong. The Congress and Lalu Yadav's RJD have renewed their friendship which had been shattered prior to the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. After a bitter, public divorce with Nitish, the BJP has managed to get Paswan's LJP and RLSP on their side. Meanwhile, the incumbent CM has been one of the torch bearers of the much-hyped 'Federal Front'. With 40 seats on the line, there is no doubt that the Bihar polls will be one of the most closely fought states in 2014.

ISSUES

(1) The Bihar Growth Model: Muck like Modi, Nitish Kumar never misses any opportunity to talk about his 'Bihar Model' of development. There is no doubt that the state has made tremendous progress in the last nine years under the incumbent CM. The law and order situation which had worsened when the RJD was in power has improved, giving a fillip to industrial growth. The poverty rate has reduced while the literacy figures has gone northward. The issue is going to be the plank on which the JD-U will fight the elections.

(2) Anti-incumbency: After nearly a decade in office, there is no doubt that the JD-U is facing a strong anti-incumbency wave. At many of his rallies and road shows, the Bihar CM has been greeted with black flags and angry demonstrators. Much like the regime in the state, the Congress-led UPA too is facing the heat. The grand old party has failed miserably in tackling corruption and the economy too has weakened over the years. Having pulled out of the Bihar government, the BJP is hopeful that incumbency will not be an issue for it.

(3) The Clash of Personalities: In many ways, the upcoming General Elections is going to be a 'Battle Royale' between three big personalities in Indian politics. On one hand it is the Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who has made his national ambitions pretty clear over the last few weeks. The RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav is a wounded tiger who is perhaps fighting the most crucial polls in his political career. And then there Narendra Modi. Having been kept out of Bihar earlier due to opposition from the Nitish camp, the Gujarat CM has a point to prove. If reports are to be believed, there is a lot of support for BJP's PM nominee on the ground.

(4) Special Status: Nitish Kumar has raised the demand for 'Special Status' for Bihar on many platforms. The JD-U believes that the special economic package will be help solve all the problems that plague the state. In fact,  has also said that he will ally with anybody who grants this key demand of this.

(5) Vote Bank Politics: The RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav is the master of caste and religion based politics. For years, he depended on the Muslim-Yadav combine to win elections. However, in the last decade, his vote base has eroded considerably. Lalu is hopeful that the anti-incumbency will help him woo back the Yadavs whereas the 'fear' of Modi will lead to consolidation of the Muslims in favor of the UPA. Nitish Kumar is fighting hard to retain the OBC and the EBC (Extremely Backward Caste) votes. One of the reasons for his ugly split with the BJP was to retain the minority votes. Will the gamble pay off? The Upper Caste has stood by the BJP for long. The LJP will help it to get a chunk of the Dalit too behind the NDA.

CONTENDERS

(1) Janata Dal - United (JD-U): After severing ties with the BJP on the candidature of Modi as the PM nominee of the NDA, nothing seems to be going in the favor of Nitish Kumar. While Paswan has joined hands with the BJP, the Congress preferred Lalu over him. While on one hand he is facing anti-incumbency on the ground, several of his close aides including N K Singh and Sabir Ali have deserted him. It is pretty clear that the Bihar CM has national dreams. However for that to happen, the JD-U has to win at least 20 seats. In my opinion, that is impossible. Although it is in alliance with the CPI, there is no doubt that Nitish is facing tough competition from the NDA as well as the UPA. Amongst the candidates declared so far are party president Sharad Yadav (Madhepur), film-maker Prakash Jha (West Champaram) and industrialist Anil Kumar Sharma (Jehanabad).

(2) The NDA: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is going all out in Bihar with its leader Narendra Modi attending several rallies here. I believe that there are two reasons for this. First of course, the saffron outfit wants to do well in the state that elects 40 sends to the Parliament. Secondly, after the JD-U broke off its 17 year old friendship with the NDA, Bihar has become a 'prestige issue' for the party. The saffron camp is banking on its two Modis to get it the votes. Moreover, the party has managed to get two new allies - Paswan's LJP and Kushwaha's RLSP on its side. As per the arrangement with its new-found partners, the saffron outfit will contest 30 seats here. Some high profile names from the BJP who have been given tickets include Rajiv Pratap Rudy (Saran), Shahnawaz Hussain (Bhagalpur) and Kriti Azad (Darbhanga).

Who would have expected, say two months ago that Ramvilas Paswan - the political 'Joker' of state politics would join hands with the BJP. After drawing a blank in the 2009 polls and witnessing a massive erosion in its vote base across Bihar, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) now wants to piggy-bank on the NaMo wave to stay relevant. For the BJP, the re-entry of Paswan into the NDA is highly 'symbolic'. Considering that the LJP chief was the first constituent of the Vajpayee cabinet to withdraw support following the 2002 riots, the move is a sort of endorsement of the fact that parties are ready to forget the past and work with the saffron brigade. Secondly, by wooing Paswan away from both, the JD-U and the INC-RJD combine, the BJP has made a strong statement. The alliance is likely to help the NDA get a fair share of the Dalit votes in Bihar. Amongst the party's candidates are Ramvilas Paswan (Hajipur), his brother Ramachandra Paswan (Samastipura) and son Chirag (Jamui).

The third member of the BJP led coalition in the state is the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP). Formed by OBC leader and former Rajya Sabha MP Upendra Kushwaha in 2013 following his differences with Nitish, the party will contest three seats. The RLSP chief has jumped into the fray from Karkat.

(3) The UPA: Whether you like it or not, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) looks to be on a comeback trail. After being humiliated, first in 2009 Lok Sabha and then in the 2010 state elections, a brief jail term for his involvement in the Fodder Scam, the ‘betrayal’ of Paswan and most importantly, the break-up of the JD(U)-BJP alliance, the former Bihar strongman Lalu Prasad Yadav is aiming to take his tally beyond the 2 digit mark. A spark of the Lalu of yesteryears was visible when he marched to the house of the Speaker of the state assembly with 9 of his 13 'rebel MLAs' in a rickshaw, accusing him of trying to protect the JD-U regime by splitting the RJD. While Yadav may have been debarred from contesting the polls following a court verdict, the party has given tickets to his wife Rabri Devi (Saran), daughter Misa (Patliputra), controversial politician Mohammad Shahbuddin’s wife Hina Shabab (Siwan) and former ministers like Raghuvansh Prasad Yadav (Vaishali) and Mohammad Taslimuddin (Araria). Unhappy after being denied the Patliputra seat, Lalu’s close aide Ram Kripal Yadav has joined the BJP and will contest from here against Misa.

While the Congress has been a fringe player in Bihar for more than two decades, it had an important decision to make ahead of the General Elections - whether to ally with the 'secular' JD-U or rekindle its romance with Lalu. While it chose to join hands with the RJD, this decision could end up impacting the results of at least 5 to 10 seats in the state. Besides Lok Sabha Speaker Meena Kumari (Sasaram), the party has fielded former IPS officer and Kerala governor Nikhil Kumar from Aurangabad.

The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) will fight one seat as a part of the UPA.

PAST PERFORMANCES

In 2004, when the Congress fought the elections in association with Paswan and Lalu Prasad, the UPA swept the state, winning over 70 percent of the parliamentary seats. The NDA was finished with a tally of just 11. However, in the state polls that were fought a year later, the LJP played a spoiler as he refused to ally with the INC and the RJD. As the electorate delivered a fractured mandate, the BJP-JD(U) coalition performed slightly better than the INC-RJD combine. With Paswan refusing to join either of the two fronts, Bihar went for the polls, for the second time later that year. This time though, there was a clear winner. The NDA bagged an impressive 143 seats; Nitish Kumar was sworn in as the Chief Minister. In 2009, the ruling combine bagged 32 of the total 40 seats. The Congress which fought the polls alone after being snubbed by Lalu won 2 seats. Meanwhile, the RJD was reduced to 4 whereas Paswan was not able to even open his account. In the following year, the JD-U and the BJP carried on their good performance, winning an unprecedented landslide victory. Their tally exceeded 200 seats. The RJD, the INC and the LJP were virtually wiped off.

Political Party	2010 SE	2009 LE	Dec. 2005 SE	Feb. 2005 SE	2004 LE
Janata Dal - United (JD-U)	115	20	88	55	6
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	91	12	55	37	5
Lok Janshakti Party (LJP)	3	-	10	29	4
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)	22	4	54	75	22
Congress (INC)	4	2	9	10	3
Others	8	2	27	37	-

(1) Bihar elects 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha.
(2) The state has 243 seats in the Legislative assembly.

MY PREDICTIONS

The Modi wave is strong in Bihar and the alliance with Paswan's LJP and RLSP is going to further help the BJP. I expect the NDA to finish with a tally of over 20 seats. The RJD is on a comeback and the pre-poll accord with the Congress will help the UPA to win up to 12 seats. All thanks to anti-incumbency and an ugly split with the BJP, the JD(U) will be lucky to even cross the 2 digit mark.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	NDA (BJP + LJP + RLSP)	21-25
2	UPA (INC + RJD)	9-13
3	JD-U	5-9
4	Others	1-2

WATCH OUT

(1) The future of the Bihari Babus: The 2014 General Elections will in many ways decide the future of three of the tallest leaders in the state.

The incumbent CM will be watching the elections closely. Having severed the 17 year old ties with the BJP, Nitish Kumar looks extremely weak. The anti-incumbency factor is strong and the Bihar growth story is crumbling. Since the state will go for polls next year, there is no doubt that the big polls will certainly have an impact on them. If the JD-U performs badly, at least that is what I have predicted, then Nitish will find it almost impossible to claim a hat trick.

While Nitish is on a sticky wicket, the polls of 2014 could well seal the fate of Lalu Prasad Yadav and his party, the RJD. Having been decimated, election after election, both in the state and Centre and having been indicted by the courts in the Fodder scam, the former CM is fighting for political relevance. For a politician like Lalu who relied on caste-based politics, rather than development for winning elections, the clock seems to be ticking. If the RJD supremo fails to make an impact in 2014, he will be finished. However, if Lalu can win over 10 seats, his party will emerge stronger in 2014.

The big elections could be a knock out punch for Ram Vilas Paswan and his LJP. Having draw a blank in 2009 and finishing with a meager tally of 3 seats in the last state assembly polls, Paswan has to at least win one seat. The former Railway Minister has taken a big gamble by returning back to the NDA. Will it pay-off? We need to wait till the counting for this.

(2) Switching Loyalties: While the BJP-LJP and INC-RJD alliances have been announced, the scenario could be very different after the results are announced. If the UPA manages to be the largest group post elections, it will not take much for the LJP to join hands with the Congress. Also, in that scenario, the JD-U may extend a helping hand, provided Lalu is out of the picture. If the NDA ends up in pole position, one cannot rule out the fact that JD-U might rejoin the NDA, especially if the saffronists are ready to grant 'Special Status' to Bihar. In fact, except for BJP-Congress or BJP-RJD, all other permutations and combinations can be expected.

(3) The Sons and Daughters: The General Elections will also see the emergence of the second generation of leaders in Bihar from well-established political families. The RJD has given a ticket to Misa Yadav, the eldest daughter of the party supremo from Patliputra. Besides, his young son and political successor Tejaswi Yadav has given up his cricketing career to help his dad do well. Like the younger Yadav, Chirag Paswan has bid adieu to his Bollywood dreams to campaign for his party. He was said to be instrumental in the LJP's alliance with the BJP. 

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

RIOTS IN UP AND ELECTIONS 2014 - Part I

HOW THE RIOTS IN WESTERN UP WILL AFFECT THE FORTUNES OF PARTIES

Though the riots that took place in parts of western Uttar Pradesh in August last year are a blot on the secular credentials of our nation, for our political parties who seem to be least bothered by the suffering of the people, it is just another opportunity to score brownie points over their rivals. Instead of trying to bring communities together and eliminate differences, outfits are adding smoke to the fire by openly taking sides with an eye on the upcoming General Elections scheduled for May this year. With Uttar Pradesh sending 80 MPs to the Parliament - the largest amongst all states, it is said that the road to New Delhi passes via Lucknow. As such, it should hardly be surprising that our leaders can pull off even the dirtiest of all tricks to come to power, even if it means that some innocent lives are lost or thousands are displaced from their homes. While some believed that the ascend of the young Akhilesh Yadav in March 2012 would usher in a new kind of politics in our most populous state, his innumerable failures in the last year and a half have proved even his most die-hard fans, if they exist, wrong.

The complete collapse of the administration during the riots and its inability to provide basic facilities in relief camps has drawn a lot of flake from the Opposition as well as social groups. While he was quick to suspend the honest IAS officer Durga Shakti Nagpal for whipping up communal sentiments by demolishing a compound wall of a mosque - a charge that has been refuted even by the people affected by this, the callousness that his regime displayed in restoring law and order is an indication, perhaps that the young Turk intends to carry forward his father's legacy of caste based and religion based politics.Though younger Yadav deserves all the criticism that he is getting, other parties can not wash their hands off it. Reports indicated that local leaders with affiliation to the BJP, the Congress as well as the BSP played a key role in whipping up communal sentiments. Finally, after the officials succeeding in stopping the violence, the high profile visits by political leaders including RLD's Arjun Singh,  the triumvirate of the Congress and the 'funniest' of all, that of the recently jailed Lalu Yadav of the RJD is nothing but another gimmick to cash in on the situation. As the big battle for Delhi is just months away, here is my take on how the events in Muzaffaranagar will affect the poll prospects of the different stake holders.

The biggest loser: While it is difficult to predict who will derive maximum 'benefit' from this ghastly tragedy, it seems that former PM Charan Singh's son and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) supremo Chaudhary Arjun Singh will be the one licking the wounds post the Lok Sabha polls. Though he has

RLD supremo Ajit Singh

always been over shadowed by the more vociferous and charismatic Mulayum Singh and Mayawati in the state politics, there is no doubt that Singh is one of the most clever politicians in the Hindi heartland. While his party may not boast of big numbers, his remarkable political acumen, his popularity in Western UP and the knack to ally with the right partners make him a prominent player in Lucknow. However, the last two years have not been a good one for either him or his party. In the 2012 state assembly polls, in spite of a pre-poll tie up with the much hyped Congress, the party dropped one seat to finish at a lowly 9 seats. Though the heir apparent and MP Jayant won the Mathura constituency, heavyweights like Baba Hardev Singh and Haji Yakub Qureshi had to bite the dust. The role of Singh who is serving as the Civil Aviation minister in the national cabinet, in pushing through the Jet-Etihad deal has raised many eyebrows. At a time when things are not going his way, the rift between the Jats and the Muslims - the traditional vote bank of the RLD following the riots may badly affect its performance, rendering it insignificant in the post poll scenario. With even the Congress re-thinking its alliance with Singh's outfit ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, the picture for Chaudhary looks gloomy.

A major blow: In March 2012, the wily Mulayum Singh Yadav took a big gamble by placing his son Akhilesh on the CM's chair. However, those who follow Indian politics know that anything that UP strong man does has a political motive behind it. By offering the post to his son, he was checking the ambitions of other big leaders - his brother Ram Gopal Yadav and the party's minority face Azam Khan. Having swept UP and after being elevated to the status of 'Netaji' by the party cadre, Singh

From left: Azam Khan, Mulayum Singh and Akhilesh

who was confident of an excellent performance in 2014 was hoping to play the King-Maker at the Centre while his son ruled from Lucknow. However, for once, his plan has backfired or at least it seems so as of now. Akhilesh's incompetency and misgovernance has led to a wave of anti-incumbency within two years of his party's outstanding results in the last state polls. The mishandling of the situation in Muzaffarnagar has alienated the Muslims - the community which, along with the Yadavs is the core vote bank of the Samajwadi Party (SP). Meanwhile, party leader Azam Khan who shares an uneasy relationship with Mulayum has been accused by many in the riot hit Muzaffarnagar district of 'orchestrating' the violence and his effigies have been burnt in several places. The only reason why I think that RLD will be the bigger loser as compared to its former ally the SP is the fact that the latter may still do well in case the Yadavs still stick with it. Though he has himself tried to maintain the moral high ground by criticizing the state government, Singh should realize that instead of such gimmicks, he must take his son to task and concentrate on improving the administration in the state. In 2009, the gravitation of a section of Muslims towards the Congress damaged the SP's performance, reducing it to a mere 23 seats. With so much negative publicity surrounding the riots, the party is under fire from all corners including former friends Ajit Singh and Lalu Yadav. However, one can never write the Pehalvan off; you never know when the master politician can pull off a surprise ahead of the big polls.

For the next post on this topic, click here (Link)

IMAGES 

(1) RLD supremo Ajit Singh
Source: Rashtriya Lok Dal - Official Website (Link)

(2) From left: Azam Khan, Mulayum Singh and Akhilesh
Source: Samajwadi Party - Official Website (Link)

ENGAME LALU?

THE POLITICS IN BIHAR IN THE ABSENCE OF LALU

Courtesy: India Today

With all attempts of the government to overrule the judgment of the Supreme Court pertaining to convicted politicians biting the dust, following mass public anger and of course ‘timely’ intervention by Rahul Gandhi, Lalu Prasad Yadav – the chief of the RJD and the former CM of Bihar became the first politician to be disqualified from the Parliament after being found guilty in the Fodder Scam. With this political heavyweight behind the bars for four years and unable to contest elections for the next six years (unless he gets relief from a higher court), it seems that it is the end of the road, both for the former Bihar strongman and his party. Lalu was hoping to rebuild his declining political fortunes after the break-up of the 17 year old alliance between the JD(U) and the BJP which had made him virtually irrelevant, first in state politics and then significantly reduced his influence at the Centre. In fact, the stunning victory of his candidate over the ruling combine’s nominee in the Maharajganj by poll by a margin of over one lakh votes was seen by many as the beginning of the RJD resurgence. However, with Yadav now languishing in the Birsa Munda in Jharkhand and Nitish breaking off all ties the NDA, the race for the 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state is heating up.

A product of the protest against Emergency, Lalu is believed to have been close to JP. You see, even great leaders make blunders. In 1990, he burst into the limelight when he was made the CM of the state as a consensus candidate after disagreement between two factions of the Janata Party. A leader of the Yadav caste, he won the support of the Muslims after he arrested Lal Krishan Advani on route to Ayodhya during the Babri Masjid movement. With the backing of this MY (Muslim Yadav) support base, he emerged as a key player in the murky politics of New Delhi in the mid and late 90s. In fact, when he was sent in association with the Fodder Scam in 1998, he broke away from the Janata Dal to launch his own party – the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). As he was sent to jail, he audaciously made his wife Rabri the CM, remote controlling the affairs of Bihar from behind the bars. In 2000, in spite of the odds, he romped home to victory in Patna, with the help of the Left and the Congress. In 2004, he won 24 seats in the Lok Sabha, emerging as the second largest constituent member of the Congress led UPA. Yadav was made the Railway Minister; under him the department made profits for the first time in years without raising the prices. This was the highest point of his political career.

It seems that at around this time, power started going into his head. Taking the people for granted, no worthwhile development was recorded in Bihar in the Lalu era. Poverty continued to remain high, no jobs were created; crime rate was high whereas literacy was quite low. In the February 2005 state polls, as the public delivered a fractured mandate, the RJD and its allies fell well short of the majority. In the re-poll held some months later, Lalu was crushed as he ended up as on the third spot. The JD(U) and the BJP formed a coalition government under the leadership of Lalu’s bête noire Nitish Kumar. With Kumar delivering on fronts where Yadav failed in his regime, Bihar began recording significant growth. As the state marched ahead, Lalu was left far behind. After talks with Congress about seat sharing in the 2009 parliamentary elections failed, he joined hands with his rival Mulayum and another political joker – LJP’s Paswan to form the Fourth Front. The move backfired as his outfit bagged just 4 seats whereas the UPA came back to power with ease. After losing on his home turf, this embarrassing loss reduced his influence in Delhi. 2010 brought more bad news, the JD(U)-BJP combine won with more than three fourth of the seats, reducing the RJD to mere 22 with Rabri losing both the seats she contested. Many believed that the infamous split in the NDA could just be the opportunity that Lalu needed to re-invent himself in Bihar. However, with the jail sentence, it seems that it is a rather gloomy and a fitting end to an otherwise colourful career, based on caste based politics.

The end of Lalu and break-up of the JD(U) and the BJP has opened up the game. In Bihar which sends as many as 40 MPs to Lok Sabha - the third highest amongst the states, the fight is heating up and one can expect key political developments to take place in the run up to 2014 General Elections. The Nitish led JD(U) which broke all relations with the BJP is aiming to get the support of the Muslims. With several Congress leaders, including Rahul praising Kumar for his secular credentials, an alliance between the two cannot be ruled out. Reports suggest that UPA may have sacrificed Lalu to win the favour of the Bihar CM. The problem here could be the other JD(U) stalwart Sharad Yadav whose politics has been based on the anti-Congress plank. Meanwhile, in case neither the NDA nor the UPA are in a position to form the next government in New Delhi, the outfit will emerge as one of the architects of the Third Front and Nitish may well be the next PM of the country. The BJP is another strong player here; while enjoying the support of the Thakurs, it is also woo the Yadavs hard. After RaGa’s dream of a Congress revival in Bihar in 2010 ended in a disaster, the INC on its own is not in a position to pose any challenge. However, if it joins hand with the JD(U), things will be dramatically different. Allying with the RJD might be suicidal and LJP is in dire straits. Ram Vilas Paswan is virtually out of the race and it will be a miracle if he manages to get more than one seat.

Meanwhile, Tejaswi Yadav, the younger son of the RJD supremo is speculated to take over the party in 2014. Rabri has already said that she and her son will ‘manage’ the party, like ‘Sonia and Rahul’. Didn’t anybody tell her that INC was in a mess? The duo will try to leverage the sympathy factor to their advantage. And in a country like ours, it might work well. However, Tejaswi is new to politics. After warming the benches of the IPL side Delhi Daredevils for several seasons, this cricket enthusiast will find it difficult to make a mark for him, at a time when his family is well past its prime. Rabri’s dual defeats in the last election polls have signaled an end to her political ambitions. One should not be surprised in case, several leaders of the RJD, shift their allegiance to other outfits. However, the wily fox that he is, Lalu can never be written off. Remember his famous line ‘Jab tak hain Samose mein aloo, tab tak rahega Bihar mein Lalu’. In case, he comes out of jail before the elections, the wounded tiger will be stronger and more determined to do well. Even otherwise, while it may not be a force to reckon with in the absence of Yadav, the RJD is not history, at least not yet.

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: India Today
Original: India Today - Fodder Scam Verdict likely to put abrupt full stop to Lalu's illustrious career (Link)

JAI HO DEMOCRACY!

WILL THE TWO HISTORIC JUDGMENTS USHER IN ELECTORAL REFORMS?

In 1950, as our founding fathers choose a democratic form of government, many observers in the West were skeptical of this decision; they believed that a nation as diverse as ours which had been drained of its wealth by colonist for over four centuries and had not yet recovered from the scars of a bloody partition, would fall apart in case a strong, centralized regime is not put into place. Sixty three years down the line, with a population of over 1.2 billion, we are the biggest democracy in the world. More importantly, unlike several other Afro-Asian countries which got their freedom post the Second World War, we have always decided who our leaders will be; so what if many of our elected netas have gone back on their promises or used their power for personal gains. Although the manner in which we have stuck to our federal democratic principles even in testing times is truly appreciable, there are still several lacunae in our style of functioning. In recent time, widespread corruption and dearth of moral values amongst our leaders, right from the Panchayat level to the corridors of power in New Delhi has led to the public losing its faith in the political establishment. Any attempt to curtail their powers or reform the existing system has been thwarted with politicians cutting across party lines, refusing to budge and ignoring the sentiments of the very electorate that voted them to power. However, the apex court of the court seems to have taken notice of this. In the last month, two historic verdicts of the Supreme Court has given a big blow to political parties, thereby sparking off a massive debate; the calls for a revamp of our entire electoral system (which has been long overdue) are getting louder.

On 11 ^th July, a bench consisting of judges Patnaik and Mukhopadhaya delivered a judgement that came as a shock for our babus. The Section 8(4) of Representation of People's Act which allowed convicted MPs/MLAs up to three months time to file appeal in higher courts and thus prevent disqualification of their membership, was struck down as 'unconstitutional'. Hence forth, any member of the Parliament or the State Legislatures who has been found guilty of a crime which attracts a punishment of two years or more will not only be disqualified but will also be debarred from contesting elections for the next six years. Of course, the government, under pressure form parties across the political spectrum did file a review petition which, not so surprisingly, was dismissed on September 4. The Manmohan regime tried to bring in an ordinance to bail out its friends - the Lalus and the Mulayums. Unfortunately, this too was struck down - not after BJP's protests or Rahul Baba's drama but after public opinion started growing against it. The implication of this verdict is massive, considering that over 30 per cent of our elected politicians are having pending criminal cases against them. In a number game that our Rajneeti has been reduced to in recent times, parties decide their candidates based on win-ability, even if it means that they have to give to tickets to people with criminal background. And may a times, they tainted nominees make the cut using money and flexing their muscles. However, after the land mark judgement, things will definitely change. In fact, within days of this verdict, Lalu Yadav - the once powerful CM of Bihar who was slowly sinking into the oblivion in both state and national politics, became the first politician to lose his membership of Parliament after being indicted in the Fodder scam. It is expected that all parties will think twice before choosing a criminal to contest as it will only lead to embarrassment once the judiciary finally nails them.

The second judgment which was delivered by a three member bench headed by Chief Justice S Sathasivam on the 27 ^th of last month, has given the voter the right to negative voting. With the Election Commission agreeing to implement this at the earliest, from now on, every Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) will have a None of the Above as a last option. As such, if one doesn't find any candidate in the fray, whether contesting independently or representing a party, good enough to represent him or her, then he or she can press this option. While there is no clarity over what happens if majority in a constituency select this option, like in the first case, we can expect this verdict to have far reaching affects on our electoral processes in the future. Firstly, in the past, many of us have refrained from exercising our biggest fundamental right because we feel those in the fray are not worthy to lead us. Now that the 'No vote' option is given to the public, people who think this way will also come out and vote. As such participation will increase, thereby further strengthening our democracy. Thus, it gives the masses an opportunity to register their protest while making sure that they do not end up supporting any of the undeserving candidates. Secondly, it will put tremendous pressure on political parties as they have to choose 'good people' to fight elections under their banner. It is no secret that large amount of money is traded and lots of lobbying goes on before any political outfit decides on its nominee. Now that the people have the power to reject all candidates, they will have to be sure that they place good options before the electorate.

The two historic verdicts that have come out of the Supreme Court an year before the big 2014 General Elections is great news for we Indians. Over the years, politicians and parties had used the many loopholes in our system to their advantage. The two judgments have raised hopes that things will start changing very soon. While the parties are trying to keep themselves out of the RTI ambit by bringing in an Amendment and over ruling an earlier court judgment in this regard, they will at least have to think twice before finalizing their candidates in the upcoming elections. There is a two-layered fire wall to prevent crooks and thugs from entering the House of Representatives now. If parties put up bad candidates, then the we have the power to reject them and in case criminals do make the cut, then they will be disqualified immediately on conviction. There is still a long way to go. The right to recall and strict monitoring of funds spent in election campaigning are probably the next steps. I hope that key reforms are ushered in at the earliest, not only in the electoral system but also in other areas like judiciary and police where too they are long pending.

SOURCES 

(1) The Hindu: MPs, MLAs to be disqualified on the date of conviction (Link)

(2) Zee News: SC stands by its order on disqualifying convicted MPs, MLAs (Link)

(3) DNA: Voter has a right to negative voting: Supreme Court (Link)

AN ALLY IN NEED IS AN ALLY INDEED

THE RACE FOR 2014 IS ON

Courtesy: Top News

As the Indian National Congress (INC) think tank went into a hurdle for its two day Chintan Shivir in Jaipur, several of its top leaders have come out in the open about the need for new allies if the 'Grand Old Party of India' wants to come back to power for a third straight term. While the wily Finance Minister Chidambaram has said that it is very difficult for any party to gain an absolute majority on its own, the outspoken Rural Development Minister Jairam Ramesh hit the nail on its head when he told media persons that the INC may need the help of newer partners to form the next government. With many more leaders including Vayalar Ravi and P C Chako echoing Ramesh's line, one should not be surprised if the Congress sends out overtures to other 'like-minded' parties in the near future like the Janata Dal-United (JD-U), presently a constituent of the Opposition NDA or the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), its main adversary in the state of Odisha. As the Congress brain stormed the pros and cons of fighting polls in coalition with other regional outfits, Lalu Prasad Yadav, the original 'joker' of Indian politics, the tag which I believe, he has lost to Congress General Secretary Digvijaya Singh in the last few years, has sounded the electoral bugle and declared the next Lok Sabha polls to be a straight contest between the 'Secular' Congress-led UPA and the 'Communal' BJP-led NDA.

Remember Shri Lalu Prasad Yadav - the former CM of Bihar and the chief of the RJD who had famously declared that one day he would rule the nasion (nation) and serve the pipool (people) on NDTV's Follow the Leader show way back in 2004 when he was a force to reckon with. Speaking to the press in Patna, the former Railway Minister has ruled out the Third Front of being a serious contender for the 2014 General Elections by saying that it will be a two-way contest between the 'Secular' compartment and the 'Communal' compartment. After his party's shameful performance in the 2009, during which he formed the Fourth Front after seat sharing talks with the Congress failed and the near complete rout in the last Bihar assembly polls, the cunning Lalu has voluntarily decided to be a part of the UPA's campaign in its quest for a hat trick of wins and in the process, revive his own political career, which has taken a downward plunge in the last decade. The OBC leader's words reminds me of former US President George Bush's 'You are either with us, or against us' speech after the horrific 9/11 attacks where he gave a clarion call to the leaders around the world to unite, behind America of course, to weed out terror from the face of the Earth. By trying to rake up the 'pseudo secular versus pro-Hindutva' debate, Yadav is acting as a dalal for the ruling party, hopeful that the work done now will reap in benefits in the form of plum ministerial posts in the third installation of UPA.

The precarious situation that the Congress finds itself in, may explain the sudden spurge in the scouting for newer friends. Anti-incumbency apart, the unending lists of scams, high inflation, policy paralysis and more importantly, the lack of a proper vision to take the country forward will make it extremely difficult for the party to even come close to the 200 mark. In fact, after Mamata, who was having an on-off relationship with the government dumped it some time ago, the Manmohan regime is surviving on the outside support of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP). While the government is struggling, its allies in the UPA are doing even worse. The infamous 2G scam and war of succession in the DMK will negatively impact its tally; there is nothing to indicate that NCP may do outstandingly well; other outfits like the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) or the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (NC) will not cross the two digit mark. Besides, Jaganmohan Reddy's revolt and the indecisiveness over the Telangana issue will trim its prospects in a state that has sent the maximum number of MPs in both versions of the UPA. Aware of the multiple problems that plague it today, Congressmen are trying hard to woo other regional parties into its fold. The Janata Dal-United (JD-U) and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) whom political pundits predict to sweep Parliamentary seats on their home turf are high on its list of prospective pals with which it can enter into electoral agreements. Special economic soaps for Bihar and Odisha in the 2013 Union budgets may be one of the many concessions that Congress may offer in return of support.

Sadly for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), it is still to put its house in order to pose any threat to the ruling combine. The battle for succession amongst the various so called 'eligible' candidates that began with the shock defeat of the Vajpayee government in 2004 has only compounded and may even end up imploding the party, like its predecessor the Jan Sangh. During much of 2011 and 2012, when it was engulfed in internal chaos, the civil society led by Anna Hazare and later the Aam Admi Party of Arvind Kejriwal ended up acting as a responsible Opposition, criticizing the government on its failures. As the party was gaining some sort of momentum by cornering the UPA on the various corruption scams that have been unearthed in the past two years, the allegations of diverting illegal wealth into the shell companies of the Purti group against its president Nitin Gadkari have proved to be a major embarrassment, putting it on the back foot. The spectacular victory of Narendra Modi has landed the saffron outfit in a dilemma. After silencing his detractors, both inside the Sangh Parivar and outside, with a huge win, he is today, perhaps the strongest contender to lead the party in 2014. However, projecting Modi as the PM candidate may not go well with the allies in the NDA, especially the JD-U, which on multiple occasions has snubbed the CM of Gujarat. If the BJP plans to enter the fray under his leadership, it will, for sure have to give up even the wildest dreams of getting any support from parties like JD-U, BJD, TMC, SP, BSP and so on, which have a substantial Muslim vote base. Moreover, neither does it have any organizational presence nor does it have any bankable partners in the crucial states of Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu which send 140 odd members to the Lower House.

With the BJP in complete disarray, regional satraps are keen to grab the the anti-INC votes into their kitty. Realizing that every seat will increase their importance on the political stage during the great tamasha that we call government formation, they are going all out to impress the electorate. The Samajwadi Party (SP) is on a roll after its thumping victory in the last Vidhan Sabha polls and is expected to do well in 2014, in spite of young Akhilesh Yadav's 'mis-governance'. Though the Bhaujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) is down after the 2012 debacle, it is certainly not out and still has the potential to fight the SP tooth and nail. With the national parties lacking any sort of organization in Uttar Pradesh, M&M - Mulayam and Mayawati are almost certain to get anywhere between 45 to 60 seats, making them crucial for the formation of a stable government. In neighbouring Bihar, Nitesh Kumar's performance and mass appeal and a non-existing opposition is certain to help his party retain its tally. Also, the war of words between the leaders of the BJP and the JD-U, firstly over the support for Pranab in the Presidential polls and then regarding the candidature of Narendra Modi as the next PM means that all is not well in the NDA and Nitesh may be open to the idea of switching sides in case a special package is allocated to his state in the Union budget. Like in Bihar, Patnaik's excellent performance in Odisha is most likely to convert into votes for the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), a party which one can bet to bag around 15 seats, making it a prized possession for both fronts. Jayalalitha's AIADMK is on a upsurge and the differences between Alagiri and Stalin will go in its favour. Naidu's Telugu Desam, K Chandrashekar Rao's TRS and the newly launched YSR Congress may do well in Andhra whereas Mamata is expected to storm Bengal.

Thus, the stage is set and the race to run the 2014 Lok Sabha has begun. While it is true that the two major national parties might not be in the best of positions, the utopian idea of a non-Congress, non-BJP government - the Third front, the pinnacle of our multi-party democracy, may not become a reality any where in the near future. And to be frank, I believe it is good for the nation, as such a loose coalition of parties headed by selfish leaders, each trying to work only for his region, will ultimately be detrimental to national interests. Thus, in the coming months, both the major alliances will go the extra mile in wooing new partners, offering huge concessions in the process. On the other hand, the smaller parties who find themselves in a win-win situation would like to make the most of it, bargaining hard for a better deal. The coming year is a crucial one with as many as 10 states, mainly in the Hindi heartland and the North-east going to the polls. Major tectonic shifts are expected on the political stage which are definitely expected to have an impact on 2014. As the big elections come closer, expect unholy partnerships to be forged just for political benefit or existing ones broken for greener grass on the other side. No party is an untouchable anymore, irrespective of its ideology, especially if it can get the numbers. After all, as our netas say, there are no permanent friends or foes in politics.

For more on the 2014 General Elections

(1) The Fall of the Triumvirate (Link)

(2) The Double Edged Sword (Link)

(3) Reading Between the Lines (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Top News 
Source: TopNews - Congress and BJP vying for JMM's support (Link)