A PLAN FOR REVIVAL

A FIVE POINT AGENDA FOR RESURRECTION OF THE CONGRESS

The much hyped Congress Working Committee (CWC) meeting scheduled for today ended on a rather familiar note with 'interim' President Sonia Gandhi agreeing to hang on to the top post for six more months. Sparks began to fly late last evening as 23 prominent Congressmen in a letter addressed to the former NAC Chairperson, raised pertinent questions on the lack of visible leadership within the grand old party. Even as Gandhi sycophants stepped in to defend the INC's first family against this unexpected onslaught, former President Rahul Gandhi decided to take the 'dissenters' head on, and as per ANI sources, accused them of 'colluding with the BJP'. Moments later, former minister Kapil Sibal who was one of the signatories to the letter put out a sarcastic tweet hitting back at the Waynad MP. Another prominent 'dissenter', former External Affairs minister Ghulam Nabi Azad threatened to resign if Rahul could prove his charges. Clearly stung by these attacks, Rahul denied making the remark as loyalists including former PM Manmohan Singh, former Defence Minister A K Anthony et all convinced the aging Sonia to stay on.

Though I am no fan of either the Congress or the Gandhis, it is important that the party somehow puts its house in order as soon as possible. For a vibrant democracy, a robust Opposition that takes on the Government on its policies and stands by it during times of national crisis is an absolute must. The Congress has failed so far, on both these fronts. Somehow, the INC has not yet recovered from the jolt of May 2014 and over the years, the abysmal state of affairs within the outfit only continues to worsen. This has further added to the aura of invincibility surrounding the BJP led by the powerful Modi-Shah duo. Even otherwise, the Congress is the inheritor of a rich legacy, having been one of the many prominent players in the national movement. While it is true that the INC of the freedom struggle is a far cry from the INC of today, we must also acknowledge that it is this organization that gave us some of our greatest founding fathers including Nehru, Patel, Bose and the Mahatma. With no full time leader, almost zero inter-party democracy and an outdated ideology, it is highly unlikely that the INC is going to witness a change in political fortunes anytime soon. Even as India's most successful political party struggles to find panacea for the many problems it faces, here is my five point agenda for a possible Congress revival.

(1) A full time President, preferably Rahul Gandhi: For years now, the Congress' longest serving President Sonia Gandhi has not been keeping well. Considering that the Amethi MP is under medication, it is mind-boggling that she is forced to stay on at the helm of affairs in the INC, in spite of the fact that she has offered to step down on multiple occasions. The logic behind this seems to be the fact that the grand old party needs a Gandhi to run the show smoothly. The family is apparently the glue that holds the many factions within the party together. With Sonia needing a break and Priyanka shifting focus to UP, it is imperative that the party leaders convince the 'reluctant Crown Prince' to take back the reins of the Congress. Will this move succeed? I am not sure; Rahul Gandhi's lack luster report card does not inspire confidence either. However, this move will at least clear the leadership mess and set in a clear hierarchy with the Congress. As and when that happens, the Waynad MP must usher in a set of reforms to empower Youth Congress organizations and promote internal democracy, topics which he has spoken about in the past but which, in pure Rahulesque fashion were not followed up during his first tenure.

(2) A clear Ideology: In what can be described as the most passionate speech in his political career so far, Rahul Gandhi while speaking at the AICC in January 2013 described the Congress as follows: 'Congress Party ek soch hain aur yeah soch hum sabke dil mein hain'. It is time that the young Gandhi scion articulated what this soch (idea) is and what it stands for. For decades, the INC has been seen as a Centrist, pro-Socialist, Secular party though not all of its policies have been in accordance to these lofty ideals. The aggressive pro-Hindutva stance of the BJP and its consecutive victories since 2014 seem to have left a deep impact on the grand old party, forcing it to project itself a much softer Hindutav party. It was in the wake of this that Rahul went temple hoping prior to UP 2017 polls and described himself as a 'Janayu-dhari Shiv Bhakt'. Multiple flip flops, especially on issues of national importance like surgical strikes and the building of the Ram Mandir have given more fodder for the BJP to project its nemesis as weak and rudderless. Even as traditional vote banks including Dalits, women and tribals seem to be gravitating to the saffron outfit, the party is fast losing its ground even in its former strongholds like Maharasthra, Andhra-Telangana and North East. There is an urgent need for the Congress to reflect upon what is the 'idea of India' that it arrogates to itself and claims to be fighting for every now and then. It needs an ideology that a young, inspirational India of the 21st century can connect with.

(3) Promoting Regional Leaders: During the decade since its defeat at the hands of the UPA in 2004, it was state leaders like Narendra Modi, Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh who kept the saffron flag flying in the heartland even as the party faced an existential crisis at the national level. In fact, in what was a tribute to the BJP's culture of nurturing dynamic regional satraps, it was the Gujarat CM who brought it to power at the Center after 10 years of warming the Opposition benches. In sharp contrast, it has been the Congress policy since the days of Indira Gandhi to cut wings of ambitious state chieftains in a bid to enforce the power of the High Command. Nine out of ten Congress CMs are Gandhi loyalists who pose no threat to the power and prestige of the first family. Evidently, this culture has back fired. While the Congress tries to fix the mess in the national leadership, the need of the hour is to take on the BJP at the state level. The appointment of Priyanka Gandhi as the AICC in-charge of eastern UP and the elevation of PAAS leader Hardik Patel in Gujarat and strategist D K Shiv Kumar in Karnataka are steps in the right direction. Incumbent CMs like Captain Amarinder Singh (Punjab), Bhupesh Baghel (Chattisgarh) and Ashok Gehlot (Rajasthan) need to be given full backing of the top brass amd more responsibility in framing the future direction of the INC.

(4) Bridging the Young-Old Divide: For a decade that the UPA was in power, the right mix of dynamic youngsters owing allegiance to Rahul Gandhi and a section of experienced loyalists believed to be close to Sonia was seen as the secret for the success of the Congress. As the old timers grabbed the plum ministries, the youngsters seemed to be contend with donning the hat of MoS. Cut to present and the rebellions of Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot paints a sad picture of a party that is imploding from within thanks to the frictions between the pro-Rahul and pro-Sonia camps. While Sachin was convinced to stay back, the grand old party has already lost some of its most promising young Turks including Scindia Jr., Hemanta Biswas Sarma, Pradyot Manikya Debbarma and Ajoy Kumar. Several other next gen leaders like Milind Deora, Sanjay Nirupam, Navjyot Singh Sidhu and Naveen Jindal are reportedly unhappy with being left out from the scheme of things within the Congress. The INC needs to think how it can manage its demographic divide and reap rich dividends out of it.

(5) Getting more Allies on board: Last but not the least, the INC needs to work towards broadening the UPA by getting more parties on board in its fight against the BJP led NDA. A formal alliance with the Left Front at least in Kerala for the national elections will make sure 20 seats are kept out of reach of the saffron outfit. Similarly, other anti-BJP parites like Mamta Bannerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC), Kejriwal's Aam Admi Party (AAP) and HDK's Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) will only improve its tally. However, for the broadening of UPA, the INC should be ready to make sacrifices; it has already shown that it is ready for this by tying up with the Shiv Sena in Maharasthra and allowing Kumarswamy to become the CM in Karnataka in spite of winning less than 40 seats in the 220 odd strong state legislative assembly. However, more would be needed in the days to come for the Congress to reclaim its long lost pre-eminent position in Indian politics.

O MAJHI RE

WILL MANJHI TAKES NITISH's SAHARA?

Jitan Ram Manjhi - Courtesy: FB

After taking a series of pot shots at Rashtriya Janat Dal (RJD) and its leader Tejashwi Yadav over the course of the month for failing to adhere to the coalition dharma, former Bihar CM and HAM(S) chief Jitan Ram Manjhi has decided to break ranks with the Mahaghatbandhan prior to the impending state polls, scheduled for the end of the year. The decision was taken at the party plenum convened at the chief's residence in Patna where it empowered the EBC leader to take all decisions regarding the future of the outfit. Ahead of the all important state elections, it was speculated that there could be some hiccups within the two major formations in Bihar and with his decision to call it splits with the RJD led UPA, the leader from Gaya may have just opened the flood gates for other smaller parties to look for greener pastures across the politicl spectrum.

For a state renowned for its politicians changing parties based on which way the winds are blowing, the leader from the Extremely Backward Musahar community is no exception. In fact, Manjhi has been the poster boy of the political opportunism that is so rampant in Bihar. He began his political career in the Congress in the early 80s and rose to become a cabinet minister in successive INC regimes in Patna before jumping to the Janata Dal and then moving to Lalu Yadav's RJD. Having served as a minister in Lalu and Rabri cabinets, he joined the Nitish Kumar led JD-U when the former came to power in late 2005. Manjhi has not been a stranger to controversies too; he was an accussed in the fake B Ed. degree racket during his tenure as the state education minister in the Lalu regime in the 90s but was absolved of all charges later.

The biggest moment in his four decade long political career came in 2014 when he was elevated to the post of the state's Chief Minister after incumbent CM Nitish Kumar took responsibilty of his party's rout at the hands of the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls and stepped down. This was seen as an attempt on part of the JD-U chief to woo back the EBCs who had gravitated to the saffron outfit under Narendra Modi. Unfortunately for Manjhi, his days at the center of politics in Bihar did not last long, especially after it emerged that he would not be a rubber stamp CM. Asked to resign in wake of the 2015 state polls to make way for Nitish to lead the Grand Alliance, the leader from Gaya put up a spirited defence, refusing to vacate the chair for his party chief. Clearly short of numbers to prove his majority, he resigned and launched the Hindustani Awam Manch (Secular), accusing his former boss of targeting him on the basis of his 'low' caste status.

Thanks to his short though controversial tenure as the Bihar CM, it was believed that Manjhi could potentially become the new face of the EBCs in Bihar, thereby cutting into the traditional votebank of the JD-U. Moreover, on the poll campaign, he would play up the sympathy card, vowing to avenge the insult heaped upon him and the entire EBC community by Nitish. It was on this assumption that the HAM-S was allocated 20 seats by the NDA for the hotly contested 2015 state polls. As the freinds turned foes turned friends - Lalu and Nitish joined hands, the NDA was swept away; HAM(S) managed to win just a single seat. In what was seen as a personal loss, Manjhi was himself beaten in Makdumpura though he did prevail in Imanganj, a saving grace at max. The result was a clear indication of the fact that the EBCs had continued to place their trust in the JD-U. August 2017 witnessed a major realignment of political forces in Patna. As his relations with his then deputy Tejaswi Yadav became untenable, Nitish ditched the RJD to rejoin the NDA, forcing Manjhi to ally the HAM(S) with the Mahaghatbandhan. In the 2019 General Elections, the party put up candidates in 3 parliamentary seats - Nalanda, Aurangabad and Gaya as a part of the UPA only to draw a blank. With two back to back setbacks, Manjhi and his outfit seem to be more or less sinking into political oblivion.

Now that he has dilly-dallyed with both the NDA and the UPA in Bihar, what's next for Manjhi? Perhaps, the easier (yet impractical) option is to work towards the formation of a Third Front in Bihar. The HAM(S) can tie up with smaller parties and social organizations including Assad-ud-din Owaisi's AIMIM, Pappu Yadav's Jan Adhikari Party (JAP), the NCP, the SP and the Left Parties amongst others. In the weeks ahead, as the two major political formations in the state sit down to finalize their seat-sharing arrangements, Manjhi could find ample opportunities to woo disgruntled elements including Kushwaha's RLSP, Sahani's VIP or even Paswan's LJP to his front. In case of a hung assembly, these smaller outfits could decide who forms the next government in Patna. However, I call this option 'impractical' because for long now, Bihar has given a clear mandate and I see no indication as to why 2020 would be different. Also, forming such a rainbow alliance is going to be a herculean task. Even otherwise, lacking a clear political agenda or dedicated cadre and voter base, the HAM(S) seems to be in no position to win more than one or two seats in case it fights alone, making it largely irrelevant even in case of a hypothetical hung assembly.

The other more practical approach is to accept that the HAM(S) experiment has flopped and merge it either into the BJP or still better, the JD(U). Political realignment is not something new in Bihar. Moreover, in the current scenario, incumbent CM Nitish Kumar may be more than willing to welcome back his former comrade. Apart from a 15 year long incumbency, the JD(U) is still facing some backclash for having dumped the RJD for the Modi led NDA. Some of the most prominent faces of the outfit including former President Sharad Yadav and spokesperson Pawan Kumar Verma are no longer with him. At this stage, Kumar should be relieved to have some of his older loyalists with him as he faces the toughest political battle of his career. The question is whether HAM(S) chief can swallow his pride and do a Sachin Pilot.

CONGRESS' NEW FACE IN GUJARAT

HARDIK PATEL TO LEAD THE PARTY IN MODI-SHAH BACKYARD

Hardik Patel - Courtesy: Face Book

While the suspense over Sachin Pilot's political future continues to hang in the balance, there seems to be some positive news coming out of the Congress camp in Gujarat. In Ahmedabad, the grand old party has decided to hand over the reins to the young Patidar leader - Hardik Patel. For a party bereft of a loyal voter base or a solid leadership in the state, the move is certainly a step in the right direction. With the Congress being out of power in the the land of Modi and Shah since 1998, the appointment of 27 year old Hardik as the Working President of the Gujarat Congress, perhaps the youngest state president for any major political party in India, can prove to be a game changer in the fight for 2022.

For decades, the INC seemed happy playing second fiddle to the BJP in the western state; however, in the 2017 state elections, infused by the energy brought in by the likes of Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mewani, the Congress fought tooth and nail, restricting the saffron camp to 99, its worst tally in decades. Almost immediately though, the party lost its momentum, slipping back to its typical laissez-faire attitude and ended up conceding all 26 Lok Sabha seats to the BJP in Gujarat in the last General Elections. What's worst, months later, several party MLAs walked over to the saffron camp, amongst them was one of the poster boys of 2017, Alpesh Thakor, clearly indicating the rot within the state Congress. While a great opportunity for revival may have been lost in the winter of 2017, it is better late than never; Patel's elevation brings in hopes for a major upheaval in the Gujarat chapter of the INC. Hardik certainly has the potential to be the torch bearer of Congress' fortunes in the western state. With the polls two years away, the young Patidar leader has his task cut out.

Face of Gujarat Congress: Post the heydays of Madhav Singh Solanki and Chimanbhai Patel, the INC in Gujarat has never had a political leader whose popularity spanned across the different regions and communities. In fact, for long, the party in the state was led by Shankarsinh Vaghela, a saffron import. Sonia Gandhi's political secretary Ahmad Patel who hails from the state is more of a organizational man than a mass leader. In the 13 years he served as the Gujarat's CM, Congress leaders like Shaktisinh Gohil, Arjun Modhwadia and Siddharth Patel were no match to Narendra Modi. However, incumbent CM Vijay Rupani lacks the charisma of the current PM. The time is perfect for a young and dynamic leader like Hardik to fill in the vacuum and begin his ascent on the state's political landscape.

The PAAS leader needs to employ a two pronged strategy in his quest to emerge as the new mass leader of the Congress. Firstly, he has to consolidate his position as the biggest Patel leader in the state. However, he has to realize that merely cultivating the state's largest community won't be enough; he has to woo other communities too. Congress stalwart Madhav Singh Solanki built up the KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim) combination and led the INC to a famous victory in the 80s winning 150 seats. Muslims have for long backed the INC but the young leader from Mehsana has to be careful that he does not play into the hands of the BJP in its attempts to communalize the 2022 polls. If Hardik can successfully transform himself from being the leader of the Patels to one who can build and lead a combination of communities against the saffron camp in the next two years, he will definitely be the top contender for the post of CM in case of a Congress win.

Rebuilding the party: After five consecutive loses to the BJP in Gujarat, it is quite natural that the morale of the party workers continues to be at an all time low. In spite of an impressive showing in the 2017 polls, the party has failed to capitalize on the advantages that it gained back then, largely because the party organization is in shambles. Infighting, like in any other state unit is still rampant, with favoritism always scoring over merit and talent. As such, the INC has somehow failed to convert the massive anti-incumbency against the BJP, into its favor. Another problem that has been plaguing the party in Ahmedabad for long is the desertion of its MLAs, especially before the Rajya Sabha polls.

Its now up to Hardik to convert the moribund Congress unit in Gujarat into a well-oiled machine that can take on the saffron outfit. Perhaps, the first step is to do away with old timers who have been warming their posts for years without delivering any tangible benefits for the INC. New leaders need to be identified and groomed before the 2022 polls. Next, Patel needs to galvanize the party cadres, the ordinary Congress worker on the street in the fight against the BJP. The karyakartas need to be enthused so that they can take the party's message to the masses. He needs to make alliances with sub-regional outfits and social organizations dissatisfied with the BJP and take them on board. Ticket distribution needs to be based on a candidate's potential to win and not on him/her being in good books of some top state party leader.

Channelizing the anti-incumbency against the BJP: A large section of the Gujarati electorate has been unhappy with the BJP, especially over demonetization and the hasty implementation of the GST. This was largely evident from the way the party's tally fell below the 3 figure mark in 2017, for the first time since 1993. The woes of the ruling outfit was only attenuated by the absence of a strong leader like Modi whereas the agitation of the Patidars, long considered to be loyalists of the saffron camp, only made the matters worse. That the BJP somehow managed to hang on to power, shows the dismal state of affairs in the INC camp. After ushering in key reforms to rebuild the Congress in the state, Patel needs to work on milking this anti-incumbency against the saffronists. He must shun the comforts of the air conditioned office in Ahmedabad and hit the trail right away. He needs to tour the state, attend rallies and building up the support base for the Congress. The failure of the incumbent regime, especially its below average handling of the Covid pandemic in the state needs to be highlighted. The party's campaigns needs to be innovative and centered around the youth, women and the poor so that dissatisfaction against the Rupani government can be channelized to give INC the advantage.

Hardik Patel's first test will be leading the party in the by polls for the eight assembly seats that fell vacant after the elected Congress MLAs resigned to join the BJP. Every seat that the INC wins in the by polls will enhance his reputation many folds.

While Hardik gets down to lead the Congress in 2022, the message to the Congress High Command would be to have a bit of patience. Expecting the young leader to do wonders in months would prove to a blunder. Hardik needs to be given a free hand, part from funds to take on the BJP. It is generally the Congress' culture to prevent the growth of strong state leaders. From Devaraj Urs to Sharad Pawar in the yester years to the likes of Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot now, the Gandhis have always been known to cut powerful state satraps to size. However, such an approach will not work anymore considering that the stocks of the Gandhi family are at an all time low. Leaders like Patel, Amarinder Singh and D K Shivakumar need to be empowered. It is only through them that the INC can be revived, first in the states and then at the Center.

PILOT HITS TURBULENCE

GEHLOT CATCHES SACHIN ON A STICKY WICKET

Sachin Pilot - Courtesy: Face Book

Last week, former Rajasthan Deputy CM Sachin Pilot hit the headlines as he along with his band of loyalists shifted base to BJP ruled Haryana in revolt against his bête noire - CM Ashok Gehlot. Though there have been reports of his differences with Gehlot ever since the Congress came to power in the state in 2018, it seems that police summons to the young leader from Tonk, asking him to join investigation in a probe related to alleged efforts on parts of the BJP to topple the government seemed to have been the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back. As talks to resolve the crisis failed to achieve any success, in spite of involvement of the Gandhi siblings, the Congress decided to take action.

Not only was he stripped off his position as the state's Deputy CM and the chief of the Rajasthan Pradesh Congress Committee (RPCC), Sachin and the 18 MLAs who came out in his support were served notices for disqualification under the anti-defection law which was later challenged by them in the Rajasthan High Court; in a relief, the court has directed the Speaker of the state assembly to wait till it delivers its judgement in the case on Monday. With Ashok Gehlot consolidating his position and upping the ante against the rebels, it seems that doors within the grand old party are finally shutting on party's former blue-eyed boy in the dessert state. Aware that numbers are not on their side and the factional feud within, the BJP has not expressed much interest in the affair, at least for the time being though its sympathies seem to be completely with Pilot Jr. as seen in the way the rebel MLAs were protected when a team from Rajasthan police reached Thanesar to grill them.

Ashok Gehlot - The Chanakya of Rajasthan politics: For over three decades, the incumbent CM has been the face of the party in the state and Sachin Pilot is just the latest of the many detractors he has taken on in his illustrious career. Serving as a Union Minister under Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi and Narasimha Rao, the leader from Jodhpur first took over the reins of the state in 1998, when the INC bagged 153 seats against the BJP led by Bhairon Singh Shekawat. This in spite of the fact that the party campaign was led by Jat leader and Gehlot's mentor Parasram Maderna, who was later made the Speaker in the state assembly. In what seemed like an action replay, the Sadarpur MLA later beat his rival C P Joshi to became the CM again in 2008 though it was the latter who was the party's face in its electoral campaign. Back then, what made matters difficult for Joshi, currently serving as the Speaker was that he lost from his constituency Nathdwara by a single vote. Ditto in 2018; while the INC won the mandate under Pilot's leadership, he had to contend with being second in command to Gehlot who is not only a close confidante of Sonia Gandhi but also enjoys an enormous clout within the state Congress unit.

A close analysis of Gehlot's moves in the last few months indicate that he left Pilot with no option but to rebel. At the onset of 2020, he convinced six MLAs from Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) to join the Congress, thereby increasing the party's tally to 107. After being able to keep the party flock together in the recently concluded Rajya Sabha polls, he decided to take on Pilot who had been critical of the state government, especially after the Congress drew a blank in the 2019 General Elections in Rajasthan. A probe was set up to look into allegedly efforts made by the BJP to topple the state government in collusion with some Congress leaders, though it was very clear who the target was, when the former Deputy CM was asked to appear before the police. When the news of Sachin's rebellion became public, the CM began wooing the two MLAs of the local outfit Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) to bolster his numbers. While the party's central leadership was working on a rapprochement between two of their tallest leaders in the state, Gehlot went on the offensive, accusing Sachin of being hand-in-gloves with the BJP to bring the government down. This was seen by many as a conscious effort on part of Gehlot to make Pilot's ghar wapsi impossible, thereby cementing his position as the sole leader of the INC in Rajasthan.

What next for Pilot? While Sachin Pilot's association with the Congress seems to be all but over, the suspense over his political future continues to deepen with each passing day. The former Minister of Corporate Affairs has denied all reports of him joining the BJP though the saffron camp has extended tacit support to him.

To begin with, it looks like the Tonk MLA miscalculated his strength within the party. With Rahul Gandhi stepping down from the post of the INC President, there has been a steady decline in the political fortunes of the young brigade seen to be close to him. Sachin only joins a growing list of Congress leaders including Jitin Prasad, Milind Deora, Navjyot Singh Sidhu etc who have been sidelined with the resurgence of the old guard after the debacle in 2019 General Elections. Coming back to Rajasthan, not only did Pilot walk into the trap that Gehlot seems to have been setting for him, he also seems to have over estimated his strength within the Congress Legislative Party in the state. With only 18 MLAs joining him in his rebellion and the BJP having its own set of problems to deal with, Gehlot seems to be set to occupy the CM's chair for some more time.

Considering that he enjoys substantial political power in the Ajmer region, Sachin Pilot may even launch his own regional outfit in his bid to fight Gehlot though the electorate has not been keen on voting for a non-BJP, non-Congress government in Jaipur. Prior to the 2018 state elections, BJP leader Ghanshyam Tiwari who had been a vocal critic of then then CM Vasundhara Raje floated his own outfit - Bharatiya Vahini Party (BVP) to offer a third alternative to the people. The Brahmin leader failed to win a singe seat and merged his party into the Congress last year. Nagaur strongman Hanuman Beniwal fared a little better, winning three seats though his Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) is a part of the NDA today. Similar attempts made by political heavyweights including Kirodi Lal Meena, Devi Singh Bhati and Lokendra Singh Kalvi have been rejected by the electorate. Will Sachin succeed where these men failed is something to be seen.

Meanwhile, it is believed that former CM and BJP leader Vasundhara Raje is not very keen in bringing the young leader into the saffron fold. Moreover, Pilot too may not be comfortable with joining the BJP; after all, his former colleagues like Jyotiraditya Scinda and Hemanta Biswa Sarma who left the Congress to be in the saffron fold have not been able to lead the BJP in their states, something that Sachin is eager to do.

Though he may have been out smarted by the wily Gehlot, age though is firmly on Sachin Pilot's side. At 43, he still has a long way to go. Besides, he comes from an illustrious family and there is still a lot of good will for his father Rajesh Pilot who died tragically in a car crash in 2000. It is expected that for the time being, Sachin will wait and watch out for disgruntled Congress MLAs who might be willing to join him in his rebellion so that he can pull the plug on the Gehlot government before either launching his own party or joining the BJP prior to the next state polls.

The Internal Mess Within the BJP: While it is true that the numbers may not be with them, the lethargy on the part of the BJP's top leadership in Rajasthan to even come out openly in support of Pilot shows the fissures that run deep within the saffron camp in the state. It is fact that for sometime now, former CM Vasundhara Raje Scindia has been miffed with attempts to sideline her within the party though she enjoys the support of over 30 party MLAs. In fact, her absence at the pro CAA rally organized at Jodhpur and attended by Home Minister Amit Shah was seen by many as her symbolic protest against the treatment meted out to her after the party's defeat in 2018 state polls. The appointment of Satish Poonia as the state BJP chief and the elevation of Om Birla as the Speaker of Lok Sabha both seem to have rubbed the former royal in the wrong way since she has not been on good terms with either of them. RLP leader Hanuman Beniwal, an ally of the NDA and a known Raje baiter has questioned her silence on Pilot's rebellion.

Apparently, Raje sees the younger Pilot as a potential threat to her claim to the CM chair's in case the BJP comes back to power in the future. Moreover, she may want her own son Dushyant Singh, four time BJP MP from Jhalawar-Baran constituency to continue her political legacy and may see Pilot as a rival to her son's rise in the saffron ranks. The internal feuds within the Rajasthan BJP, in sharp contrast to the unity it displayed in MP under Shivraj Singh Chauhan and in Karnataka under B S Yeddyurappa has relegated the BJP to be more of a passive player in the whole imbroglio, which just does not fit in the aggressive brand of politics that the saffron outfit has displayed in the Modi-Shah era.

THE SHAH OF POLLS

AMIT SHAH'S ROLE IN BJP'S HISTORIC WIN

Amit Shah - Courtesy: India Today

The dust on the electoral battle field has settled and the incumbent PM Narendra Modi and his BJP has stormed to another term in power, this time with a much stronger mandate. The saffron party on its own won 303 seats while the NDA finished with a spectacular tally of 353 inching very close to a two-thirds majority in the Lower House of the Parliament. Though PM's popularity with the masses and the lack of a strong Opposition are cited as primary reasons for the BJP's solid showing at the hustings, it is easy to over look the role of the party President - Amit Shah under whose leadership, the saffron outfit has been transformed into a well oiled election machine that barring a few setbacks, has won most state polls in India over the last five years.

Considering that PM Modi has not been able to deliver on many of the promises he made during the run up to the 2014 polls, BJP was expected to drop seats, especially in the Hindi heartland where it had lost three crucial states in November last year. Agrarian distress and unemployment were believed to only make the matter worse for the ruling dispensation. Though the Balakot air strikes managed to turn the tide significantly in favor of the BJP, Shah's deft handling of alliances in crucial states, his efforts in strengthening the party organization apart from the his conscious efforts to expand the BJP's footprints in the East and North-East seem to have paid handsome dividends in form of massive gains throughout the country, barring deep South.

Strengthening the Party: Early in his tenure as the national president, buoyed by Modi's soaring popularity, Shah began a membership drive where people could join the saffron ranks by simply giving a missed call. Leaders right from the Panchayat to the national level were given targets and their performance was monitored. Within months, the BJP with a membership of over 10 crores became the largest political party in the world. Next, as four states went to polls, in the later half of 2014, the former Gujarat Home Minister began replicating his 2014 UP success story across the nation. Panna Pramukhs, responsible for about 8-10 families that figured on a single page of electoral rolls in a constituency, were appointed throughout the country. Key strategists from the RSS like Ram Madhav were roped into the party. In the run up to the national elections, programs like 'Mera Booth, Sabse Majbhoot' were launched to boost morale of party workers. Over the span of five years, Shah's many moves at strengthening the party, like those mentioned above, paid rich dividends as the enthused party cadre tapped in Modi's popularity to win a landslide victory.

Stitching Key Alliances: Once the pioneer of coalition politics in India, it was said that Modi's autocratic way of functioning was pushing key allies away from the BJP. Months before the polls, Shah began getting disgruntled NDA partners on board. Shiv Sena which had been the most trenchant opponent of the BJP and the PM in the last term was convinced to remain within the NDA in spite of the party supremo Uddhav Thackeray's earlier announcement of going to the hustings all alone. Nitish Kumar led JD-U was allocated 17 seats with the BJP even giving away seats that they had won in 2014 as a part of the seat sharing arrangement in Bihar. In Assam, the AGP which had left the NDA protesting over the Citizenship Bill too was convinced to back the saffron outfit for the national polls. In the south, the BJP put up an impressive front including the ruling AIADMK, Ramdos led PMK, actor turned politician Vijaykant led DMDK and so on.

As the results started trickling in on 23rd May, Shah's effort seem to have bore fruits. Though the DMK led front swept Tamil Nadu, in other places it was the NDA that trounced the UPA. JD-U won all but one of the 17 seats it contested as the NDA won 39 of the 40 seats in Bihar. Shiv Sena won 18 of the 23 seats it contested in Maharashtra with the NDA ending with a solid tally of 41 in Maharashtra. In Assam, the NDA once again proved its might bagging 9 of the 14 seats in the state.

Expanding party's footprints: Perhaps, Amit Shah's biggest achievement as the BJP national president has been his ability to expand the party's foot prints in hitherto unknown lands. Till 2014, the saffron outfit was considered as party with its base in the Hindi heartland and western India. Under Shah though, the party has made significant in roads into states like Odisha, Bengal and the North-East.

The BJP first emerged as the real challenger to Naveen Patnaik in the 2017 Panchayat polls when it stood second to the BJD. In the national polls, the party won 8 seats, an improvement of 7 over its performance in the last Lok Sabha elections. In Telangana, the saffron outfit shocked CM KCR and his TRS by winning 4 seats. This is an accomplishment considering that the pink party had swept the state polls held earlier this year. In the North East, the BJP and its partners in the NEDA won 18 of the 25 parliamentary seats. This region, till sometime back had minimal BJP presence and was see as a Congress bastion. But the story of 2019 polls was Bengal where the saffron outfit did the unthinkable, winning 18 seats and emerging as the biggest threat to CM Mamta Bannerjee's TMC.

Shah's hard work and perseverance seem to have caught the eye of the PM too. Shah has been inducted in the cabinet and is now seen as the new No 2 in the pecking order. The Chanakya who is credited for transforming the fortunes of the party is now the country's Home Minister. Can he now transform the fortunes of the country. Only time will tell.

2016: THE STAKES ARE HIGH

The year 2015 has been one to forget for the saffron outfit; after being routed in the Delhi state polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was further embarrassed in Bihar later in the year when the NDA was convincing beaten by the grand opposition led by bitter rival Nitish Kumar. Rising prices, the 'intolerance' debate and failure of the government to bring in the much anticipated reforms has meant that the aura of invincibility surrounding the BJP and the Prime Minister has been busted; the much hyped Modi wave seems to have vanished and Amit Shah's political acumen seems to have deserted him completely.

Probably, the only saving grace for the party is that the popularity of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to remain high. However, as the Delhi and Bihar polls have shown, it cannot solely depend on the PM to win them the elections in the states. Amongst the five states that are scheduled to go to the polls in 2016, Assam is one where the BJP will fancy its chances in the wake of rising anti-incumbency against the Tarun Gogoi government. It remains to be seen what strategy the party applies in Tamil Nadu and neighboring Pondicherry. Will it revive the NDA in Tamil region and fight the polls with Vijaykant's MDMK or abandon its front and ally with the Jayalalithaa? Moreover, it remains to be seen if the BJP can finally break its jinx and make its debut in Kerala. Also, the party will hope to improve its share in Bengal.

For the Congress, this year has been a mixed bag. The year started on a bad note with the grand old party being wiped out from the capital. However, the victory of the grand alliance of which the INC was a part of in Bihar did bring in a lot of cheers. More importantly, a big hurray for the party is that its Vice President Rahul Gandhi seems to be taking charge of the affairs of late. The party's strategy to stall Parliament has worked till now but then it must make sure that it does not over do it.

Looking forward to 2016, the Congress is still to regain its lost political pride which can only be restored by a famous win in the electoral arena. Probably, from the INC's perspective, the only state where it has a chance to register a big electoral win is Kerala where it is in power. Considering the present political conditions, it is unlikely that the party can win a fourth straight win in Assam in the wake of rebellion within its ranks. Allying with the DMK is the only option to do well in Tamil Nadu whereas Bengal will be a lost cause, unless the INC makes up with the TMC.

Compared to the two national parties, perhaps the upcoming year is the most important for the Left Front as two of the three states where it has a significant presence go to the polls. And to be frank, the situation does not seem to be particularly good. In its former bastion of Bengal, the TMC is all set to retain its hold in Kolkata thanks to the inability of the Communists to put up a spirited fight. The fight in Kerala seems to be a really tight one with the Congress going all out to keep the Left Front at bay.

Finally, the stakes are high for the regional players too. Jayalalithaa who was believed to be comfortably placed to win a consecutive term is now facing the heat, especially after the deluge in Chennai and Cuddalore. The only saving grace for her is that the DMK is ridden with internal strife and the taint surrounding the alleged involvement of some of its top leaders in the 2G scam is yet to go. In the east, Mamta Bannerjee though is in a much better position, thanks to an inefficient opposition and her goons.

BIHAR 2015: THE VERDICT

BJP SWEPT AWAY AS LALU HELPS NITISH EARN A HAT-TRICK

Though many were expecting Bihar to be a close contest after a bitterly fought campaign, with leader from both camps often indulging in 'inappropriate' language and even going below the belt on some occasions, the people of India's third most populous state have delivered a resounding verdict, choosing the 'Mahaghatbandhan' led by by their incumbent CM Nitish Kumar over PM Narendra Modi's NDA. In many ways, it was a fairy tale come back for the JD-U chief; after a series of blunders that threatened to jeopardize his political career altogether, he has 'risen' from the ashes, beating the PM with whom, he has had some scores to settle with. While Kumar is all set to retain the chair of the CM, the 'Man of the Series' is certainly Lalu Prasad Yadav. The former Bihar CM who was once Nitish's staunchest rival is in my opinion, one of the biggest factors responsible for the 'grand' victory of the mega alliance. For the BJP and its allies though, the results have been crushing; saying that the NDA 'lost' the polls would be a massive under statement since they have been 'routed' with the regional front winning thrice as many seats as the BJP led coalition.

The highlight of the Bihar state polls 2015 for me has been the manner in which Nitish, Lalu and most importantly, the cadre of the two parties have resolved the bitter differences that existed amongst them in the past and literally blown away the BJP and its allies. While there is no doubt that this was an alliance to retain their political significance, the JD-U chief and the RJD supremo must be credited for sticking together in spite of varying styles of functioning and reaching consensus on all important issues including the post of CM, seat sharing arrangement, campaign strategy et all. Though there were some murmurs of dissent within their ranks initially, the cadre too seem to have worked. Remarkably, the regional front even managed to transfer their respective vote banks to candidates of the alliance across the state. The electoral campaign of the grand alliance was pretty simple. While the soft-spoken Nitish Kumar harped on the development bandwagon, the more 'brash' Lalu took on the hard line, hitting out at the PM and his aide Amit Shah at regular intervals. Of course, the many blunders from the saffron camp including the failure to project a local leader, the beef controversy and the 'unwarranted' statements regarding reservations made by the RSS chief only gave more ammunition to the regional players.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) finished as the single largest party in the state assembly, winning 80 of the 101 seats it contested, its best tally in over a decade. The Janata Dal - United (JD-U) finished with a tally of 71 whereas the Congress seems to have been a big beneficiary of the verdict. The INC won nearly 70% of the total seats it contested.

For the BJP, its dream of a saffron government in Patna was crashed after its alliance finished with a paltry tally of 58 seats. The fact remains that in spite of the NDA's superlative performance in the 2014 General Elections, the saffron outfit was always the 'underdog' considering that the two regional parties had joined hands to counter it. The BJP tried to counter this by roping in the PM to address over 30 rallies in the state and roping in JD-U rebel and former CM Manjhi with an eye on the Extremely Backward Class votes. However, a spate of errors on its part, some of which I have already recounted above cost it dearly. Some of the leaders of the party or belonging to its affiliates only made the matters worse by raking up communal and casteist sentiments further strengthening the anti-NDA votes. Spoilers like the AIMIM, the SP and the NCP failed to make any considerable dent in the Opposition's tally. Moreover, Nitish's record as a 'capable' CM and the lack of any substantial anti-incumbency on the ground meant that the BJP was wiped off Bihar.

The charts displayed here are created using the free online tool - ChartGo (Link).

DO OR DIE...

Lalu Yadav - Facebook

While most political commentators dipped their pens in black ink and wrote the political obituary of former CM Lalu Prasad Yadav after his party was reduced to mere four parliamentary seats in the 2014 Union Polls, the 'unholy and unexpected' alliance between him and his bête noire - Nitish Kumar seems to have given the RJD supremo one more chance to remain relevant in a state which he dominated for nearly two decades. In the run up to the big polls, the split in the NDA was seen by many as the 'opening' that Lalu needed to stage a political comeback after being on the fringes for nearly five years and his conviction in the multi-crore Fodder Scam; unfortunately, the Modi wave was just too strong for him to regain his lost glory. However, the realignment of political forces in the state with the coming together of the former Janata Dal constituents to take on a resurgent BJP could well be the opportunity that has been eluding the Yadav leader for long. With the sword of Damocles hanging over his head, Bihar 2015 has become a 'Do or Die' scenario for one of India's most colorful yet controversial politician.

Nobody understands the gravity of the situation more than Lalu himself. The astute politician that he is, the sheer number of 'sacrifices' that he has made in the last few months should make it clear how much importance the former Rail Minister attaches to the poll verdict. Firstly, in spite of his bitter rivalry with his one time comrade turned foe Nitish Kumar, the Yadav strongman agreed to a coalition with the latter's JD-U, the same party that has eroded Lalu's Muslim and lower caste vote base. Many were skeptical of such an alliance considering the bad blood between the two regional leaders and their ideological differences. However, Lalu on his part should be appreciated for holding on to 'Maha Ghatbandhan' in the wake of many differences. Secondly, aware of the popularity of the incumbent CM amongst the masses, the RJD supremo buckled under pressure, allowing the mega coalition to project Nitish as its CM nominee. This is so much different than the Lalu Prasad we have known over the years; remember, it was he who famously stalled Mulayum Singh Yadav's bid to become the PM back in the nineties. Not only this, he also agreed to fight the same number of seats as the JD-U, something that many believed was just not possible, more so after the RJD conceded the CM's chair to Nitish. Surely, the former CM has gone out of the way to ensure that his alliance remains strong in its battle against the NDA.

Lalu clearly understands his role in the campaign for grand alliance; his conviction in the Fodder Scam and the pathetic state of law and order in the state during his tenure as the CM make him the prime target of the BJP which has termed his days at the helm of affairs in Patna as 'Jungle Raj'. However, the RJD chief is the master in caste based politics, a factor that continues to resonate with the electorate here even today. No wonder than that he is playing the caste card to win over the voters. The recent comments by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat calling for the retrospection of reservation policy in the country and the spate in the killings of Dalits in the BJP ruled Haryana has given more ammunition for the Yadav strongman to train his gun at the saffron camp. Lalu has been the darling of the Muslims ever since he stopped Advani's Rath Yatra back in 1990 and he continues to flaunt his 'secular' credentials particularly in the wake of the Dadri lynching, hoping to stitch back his fabled Muslim - Yadav combination that was the base which catapulted him to three straight wins in the state. And in his vintage style, the Rashtriya Janata Dal boss has not shied away from attacking PM Modi even calling him a 'Brahm Pishchak' on one occassion.

Meanwhile, an indication of his declining clout in Bihar was evident from the defeat of his eldest daughter Misa Bharati from the Paliputra parliamentary seat in May last year. With his sons - Tej Pratap and Tejaswi in the fray for the state polls this time around, the stakes for Lalu Yadav are much higher. In case, the saffron alliance manages to sweep the state and the RJD fails to put up a good show, serious questions will be raised over the future of his party. In the past two years, several of the RJD's leaders including Ramkripal Yadav and Pappu Yadav have either deserted the outfit or have been shown the door. In case, the party fails to perform well in the scheduled polls, one can expect another exodus of the few remaining leaders from the party outside its first family. Not only will it relegate Lalu to the fringes, but will also take the gas out of the RJD's lantern. The Yadav strongman will certainly want his sons to have a good start in their political careers and for this to happen, a victory for the mega coalition in Bihar is essential.

Speaking to the media, Lalu had once remarked 'Jab tak rahega samose mein aloo, tab tak rahega Bihar mein Lalu'. While the starchy vegetable will continue to be a part of one of India's most famous snack for a long time, the November 12 verdict will decide the fate of the RJD chief and his party. Till then, we need to keep our fingers crossed.

P.S: I have started a new blog - Raajaniti (Link) dedicated to Indian politics. Henceforth, I will put up posts relating to Indian politics on both of these blogs. 

Also, I would request you to check out the new blog and please provide your valuable feedback.

WILL CHANKYA'S NEETI WORK?

NITISH LED 'SECULAR' FRONT TO TAKE ON THE MODI BRIGADE

The JD-U supremo Nitish Kumar who is dubbed by several political analysts as the modern day 'Chanakya' of the Indian political spectrum, pulled off another major political coup earlier this week when his name was declared as the official chief ministerial nominee of the newly formed and 'loosely knit' Janata Parivaar (JP) for the upcoming Bihar polls. With the war of words between the leaders of the state's top two regional parties - the JD-U and the RJD escalating over the past two months, the announcement made by the Janata Parivaar's de-facto chief Mulayum Singh Yadav ended weeks of speculations of a possible break down in the anti-BJP plank even before the elections. In what seemed to be a well choreographed affair, the name of Nitish as the face of the alliance was proposed by none other than his friend turned foe turned friend - Lalu Yadav.

Check Mating Lalu: Like Kautaliya who crafted the downfall of the much powerful Nanda Empire by training his protégé Chandragupta Maurya in the fourth century BC, the incumbent CM too played his cards well in the race to be the 'face' of the grand alliance. Having deposed his self-appointed successor Jitam Ram Manjhi from the helm of affairs after the latter refused to be a mere puppet, Nitish knew very well that the move could hurt him electorally with a section of the influential Maha-Dalit community refusing to back him for having mistreated their leader. Moreover, the lessons of the September 2014 by-polls were not lost on him; for halting the Modi juggernaut it was essential to keep the mega coalition together. At the same time though, to salvage lost pride and to maintain political relevance, it was equally important for him to lead it. With Lalu in the equation and the bitter animosity between the two leaders since the mid 90s being a stuff of legends, this was not going to be easy. Though the RJD chief has been barred from contesting elections after being convicted in the Fodder Scam, he was, or rather he still is, not very keen to fight the polls under the leadership of his one time rival. The Yadav strong man is a master in the art of dirty politics and side lining him was going to be a herculean task within itself.

This is exactly where Nitish displayed his political acumen; fully aware that the Congress, in spite of its moribund state of affairs in Bihar would still play a decisive role in deciding the CM candidate of the coalition, the JD-U chief had a special audience with Rahul Gandhi on a visit to Delhi. It is believed that the Congress Vice President, unlike his mother does not have a good opinion of the RJD chief. On the other hand, he has been vocal about his admiration of Nitish. One can recollect several instances wherein the junior Gandhi had praised the Bihar CM for his secular credentials even while he was an integral part of the NDA. In fact, this move was a master stroke; soon after the meeting, reports from the Congress camp suggested that INC would align with the JD-U irrespective of whether Lalu was with it or not. With the Gandhis turning their back on Lalu, the path was more or less clear for Kumar to head the anti-BJP plank. Moreover, Nitish's image as the man who transformed Bihar from Lalu's 'Jungle Raj' to one of the fastest growing states in India only further strengthened his prospects for the top post. As such, as the leaders of the Janata Parivaar met to discuss the course of action for the polls, the odds were comprehensively stacked in the favor of Nitish, forcing the wily Lalu to eat the humble pie.

The Nitish v/s Modi saga continues: With Kumar leading the mega coalition, the second part of the Modi - Nitish rivalry is all set to be played in the state of Bihar this winter. After walking out of the NDA over the candidature of the then Gujarat CM as the NDA candidate for the post of the Prime Minister, the Bihar CM was left with a bloody nose as Modi mania swept Bihar in May 2014, relegating the JD-U to a ignominious tally of two parliamentary seats. In a bid to save his face, Kumar resigned and handed power to his hand picked successor Jitin Ram Manjhi to appease the Maha Dalit community which voted for the BJP in the General Elections. In the mean time, following the realignment of the political forces in Bihar, Nitish and his new found allies - the RJD and the Congress managed to edge past the BJP by winning 6 of the 10 seats that went for the by-polls, a consolation victory of sorts. Ironically though, months later, as Manjhi transformed from a 'docile' leader into a 'clever' politician refusing to be 'controlled' by his party boss, Nitish expelled him from the JD-U and was himself back as the Bihar CM for the third time. With back to back political blunders, many were wondering if Nitish's astute acumen has deserted him and if his reign as Bihar's most powerful leader were numbered. And the man behind Nitish's unraveling was none other than his bete noire - Narendra Modi.

The Bihar polls is the perfect platform for Bihar CM to settle scores with the PM. A victory for the Janata Parivaar would be a jolt to the Modi bandwagon which hit a major road block when the AAP decimated the saffron party in Delhi earlier this year. A win would help Nitish regain most of the political pride that he had lost in the last two years and would re-establish him as a force to reckon with besides being a major fillip to the merger of the factions of the JP. However, there is a much bigger prize to be won, something that most political analysts have over looked thus far; after the General Polls, there is no 'credible' face to represent the anti-Modi or the non-NDA parties in the political sphere. The most obvious and legitimate choice to fill in this vacancy - Sonia Gandhi is not keeping well whereas the negativity still surrounding Rahul means that most believe that he is not yet 'mature' enough for the job. Regional satraps like Jayalalithaa and Patnaik who managed to fend off the Modi wave in their respective home turfs have been on cordial terms with the new government. Mamata Bannerjee has of late mellowed her anti-Modi rhetoric. The mess around AAP in the recent months has hit Arvind Kejriwal's popularity; the party's influence has not moved beyond the NCR in spite of that fabulous victory in February. A victory for the JP under Nitish would automatically catapult him to being the new anti-Modi face in Indian politics.

The Ground Realities: Though the coalition may have been announced, it remains to be seen how the talks regarding the seat sharing arrangements between the many constituents of this grand alliance progress in the coming weeks. Though the issue of the CM candidate has been settled for now, the basis for seat allocation has become another pain point for the two parties. The RJD wants the 2014 General Elections to be the basis to arrive at the seat sharing formula whereas the JD-U wants it to be the 2010 state polls. A bigger worry for the leaders of the alliance is whether their cadre and workers at the ground level are able to forget all the past differences and work together as a team. Considering the 'hatred' that the JD-U and the RJD have shared in the past, that seems to be a near impossible task. And lastly, will the alliance be able to break the caste barrier? For example, will a Yadav who has a loyal voter of the RJD for decades now vote for a JD-U nominee contesting as a candidate of the JP from his seat? Considering that the Yadavs harbour a special dislike for Kumar for ending their political dominance in Bihar, will they be comfortable with him as the CM candidate? Moreover, it remains to be seen how much damage will the Manjhi mishap cost in terms of the Extremely Backward Caste (EBC) votes. Surely, the modern day 'Chanakya' will have to put in all the 'Neeti' and perhaps, even some 'Kutneeti' to score a memorable hat-trick! 

AMMA RETURNS

AIADMK SUPREMO IS BACK WITH A BANG

Much to the chagrin of her enemies, AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa who was given a clean chit by the Karnataka High Court in the disproportionate asset case couple of weeks ago is back, 'officially' the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu for the fifth time. After being convicted in the case and given a jail sentence for four years in September 2014, the regional satrap who swept to power in the last state polls had stepped down and entrusted the responsibility of the state to here confidante O Paneerselvam. Since then, she had maintained a rather low profile, refusing to make public appearances and this meant that most public projects were struck up since the 'Iron Lady' was not there to inaugurate them. Although this may sound hilarious for most of us, people following Dravidian politics will certainly not be surprised. After all, politics down south is as dramatic as the local cinema and most of the successful Tamil politicians including Jaya have their roots in the film industry.

With the AIADMK chief back at the helm of affairs, the prospects of her party in the state elections scheduled for the next year have blossomed overnight. After successive victories, first in the 2011 polls and then in the 2014 General Elections, the Amma Express was on a roll. The many freebies and welfare schemes launched during her tenure were paying off. Its primary opposition in the state - the DMK was battling allegations of corruption and the fight within its first family was only intensifying with each passing day. Just when everything seemed to be going right for Jaya and her followers, the ruling of the Karnataka HC came as a massive jolt, threatening to cut short her political ambitions for the time being. However, much to her relief, the recent ruling, acquitting her and three others of all allegations of wrong-doing during her previous tenure have only enhanced the 'aura' of invincibility surrounding her. Speaking after the verdict she said that she has come out of the 'ordeal' like pure gold; in fact, many believed that Jaya could even consider snap polls, trying to en-cash on the sympathy wave following her acquittal.

From the perspective of the AIADMK, the decision is a big fillip before it kick starts its campaign for the 2016 polls. The return of Amma as the CM of Tamil Nadu is set to herald in a new set of reforms as well as public welfare scheme - read 'freebies', aimed at consolidating her voter base that has stood firmly with her for some time now. Many schemes like the Chennai Metro which has been completed but not yet made operational, apparently since Jaya was not there to inaugurate it are likely to be opened for the public. Though state politics may be her primary concern as of now, the AIADMK is expected to now play a more proactive role in the Lok Sabha too where it is the third largest party with 37 members. Besides, its 11 members in the Rajya Sabha too could be actively wooed, both by the government and the various opposing blocks considering that many of the Bills could be stuck up in this house.

While one witnessed scenes of ecstatic celebrations in the AIADMK camp, a wave of gloom has set upon the DMK. Though Karuna tried to take a 'principled' stand saying that the 'court of conscience' was above all other courts, it is clear that his party's attempt to use this issue to script a revival has gone down the drain. The numerous problems plaguing the DMK just seem to be piling one after another. As if successive defeats were not enough, the fight between Stalin and Azaghiri that led to the ouster of the latter from the party has severely weakened its ranks. The allegations of graft against some of its prominent leaders including Karuna's daughter Kanimozhi, his nephew Dayanidhi Maran and former Telecom Minister A Raja has tarnished the party's image to a large extent. In the present context, it will take more than a miracle for Karuna and the DMK to prevent Jaya from winning a straight second term.

Although it was BJP leader Subramanian Swamy who had filed the case against the Tamil Nadu CM nearly two decades ago, Jaya's acquittal is likely to bring cheers to the saffron outfit. It is a well known fact that the PM and Jaya share a good personal rapport. After the verdict, Modi is believed to have called up Amma and congratulated her. With the AIADMK chief coming out clean from all the allegations levied against her, it makes it much easier for the BJP to work with her party. Since the NDA lacks the numbers in the Upper House, the saffronists would now try to strike some sort of a working deal, if not a partnership between the two political parties to check mate their enemies.

For the Congress though, the case could give it the leverage it needs to stage a comeback down south or at least try to get back some of the space that it has conceded to others. The local party unit is in tatters and unless it manages to make up with its former ally - the DMK which is unlikely, it will find it extremely difficult to even cross the two digit mark in the next state polls. But then, as fate would have it, the Congress is all set to play a key role in the Jaya saga which is far from over. After all, it is in power in Karnataka and it is up to the Siddaramaiah government to file a review petition in the Supreme Court against the HC verdict. In that scenario, the Tamil Nadu CM could be in for some problems in the near future. More importantly, the move will perhaps be the first step in the renewal of ties between the INC and the DMK which has been left red-faced after dropping of the charges against Jayalalithaa. However, the move could boomerang too since this may translate into more closer ties between the BJP and the AIADMK which will be a win-win situation for both.

With the party being relegated to a 'pariah' and regional satraps largely ostracizing it, the Congress rarely gets a chance to play a decisive role in politics nowadays. However, in the Jaya disproportionate asset case, it is the INC that holds the cards. The party leaders need to evaluate all the angles and come up with an action plan that can help it turn the tide in its favor. Whatever the party's government in Karnataka does, the implications of that decision will not only impact Tamil politics but will resonate in the National Parliament.

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part VII

THE BIG WINNERS AND LOSERS

It is but imperative that we start this post by lauding the efforts of the Chief Electoral Officer of Delhi Chandra Bhushan Kumar, his entire team and the security forces in making sure that the whole voting process went on smoothly. In spite of the fact that Delhites were voting for the third time in last 14 months, they came out in record numbers to exercise their democratic right. The voting percentage was a little over 67 much more than that seen during the Lok Sabha polls which shows that we Indians have still not lost faith in the political system.

With the AAP having swept the polls, winning a staggering 67 of the 70 seats, it is but natural that all of its top guns have won their respective constituencies. Leading the list of the big winners is the party chief Arvind Kejriwal who retained the prestigious New Delhi seat by a mrgin of over 31,000 votes beating Nupur Sharma of the BJP and Kiran Walia of the Congress. His close aide and former state cabinet minister Manish Sissodia too was successful from Patparganj where he beat his former colleague Vinod Kumar Binny who was fighting on a BJP ticket. Meanwhile, former ministers Somnath Bharati and Rakhi Bildan who were in the news for all the wrong reasons during the AAP's 49 day regime emerged victorious from Malviya Nagar and Mangol Puri respectively.

Other prominent winners from the AAP include former ministers - Satyendra Kumar Jain (Shakur Basti), Saurabh Bharadwaj (Greater Kailash) and Girish Soni (Madipur) and former Congress leader Alka Lamba (Chandini Chowk).

Considering that only three BJP candidates were able to tide over the AAP tsunami, they deserve to be in the list of the winners. These include Om Prakash Sharma (Vishwas Nagar), Vijendra Kumar (Rohini) and Jagdish Pradhan (Mustafabad).

The casualties in the saffron camp were many. Perhaps, the biggest amongst them was the party's CM candidate Kiran Bedi herself who lost from Krishna Nagar which is believed to be a BJP strong hold since it has been nurtured by former state party leader and Union Minister Dr. Harshavardhan. She was beaten by AAP candidate S K Bagga by a margin of over 2,400 votes. Another well known state leader Prof. Jagdish Mukki had to bite the dust from Janakpuri as he lost out to his rival Rajesh Rishi by over 25,00 votes. Meanwhile, former AAP leaders who had joined the BJP ahead of the polls including former Speaker M S Dhir (Jangapura) and Vinod Kumar Binny (Patparganj) too were beaten. Similarly, former Union Minister Krishna Tirath who had jumped to the saffron camp from the Congress lost from the Patel Nagar constituency. Also, former DU president Nupur Sharma who was pitted against AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal lost by over 30,000 votes.

For the Congress, its campaign chief Ajay Maken lost his deposit from Sardar Bazaar having been beaten by AAP's Som Dutt who polled over 67,000 votes. Like him, former Child and Women Welfare Minister Dr. Kiran Walia lost to the AAP chief having got just over 4,700 votes. Other bigger losers from the party include Muslim faces - Shoaib Iqbal (Matia Mahal) and Haroon Yusuf (Congress), President's daughter Sharmistha Mukherjee (Greater Kailash) and Dr. Yoganand Shastri (Malviya Nagar).

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part VI

THE RESULTS

Though the Opinion polls may have been unanimous in declaring the AAP as the clear winner in the Delhi elections 2015 after the votes were cast on February 7, the magnitude of their victory was grossly under-estimated. Nobody, not even the likes of Kejriwal or Yogendra Yadav would have anticipated that their party would bag over 95 percent of the seats in the state assembly. As Shiv Sena supremo Uddhav Thackeray put it, it seemed that the 'Modi wave' was swept aside by the 'tsunami' in favor of the Aam Admi Party. As early as December last year, many felt that the AAP would find it extremely difficult to get a decent tally, forget thoughts of going past the half way mark, especially after a series of political blunders that they had committed in the past year. The whitewash in the national capital in the Lok Sabha polls was hailed as the beginning of the end of the anti-corruption party. In what can be best described as a 'fairy tale', thousands of AAP volunteers ably led by Kejriwal & Co. worked day in and day out to capitalize on the errors made by the BJP to turn the tide in their favor by getting across their vision for Delhi to the masses.

Courtesy: HD Wallpapers wala

The AAP's phenomenal tally of 67 seats is special in many ways. There are very rare instances in multi-party democracies like ours wherein a single party manages to win such a large percentage of seats. The only other state where such a pattern has been observed in recent times was in Sikkim where the ruling SDF under CM Pawan Kumar Chamling won all 32 seats in the 2009 elections to the state assembly. Prior to that, the party had won 31 seats in 2004. Another important trend to notice is that Kejriwal's outfit won nearly 54 percent of the total votes; again, the way our election process is structured, this is not very common. In fact, 55 of the 67 winning candidates of the AAP won over 55 percent of the votes in their respective constituencies, a clear indication that they had won the confidence of the people across all parts of the city. Prominent winners from the party include Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, Somnath Bharati, Rakhi Bidlan and Alka Lamba.

Sr.	Political Party	Seats
1	Aam Admi Party (AAP)	67
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	3
3	Congress (INC)	0
4	Others	0

With this memorable win, the AAP has finally managed to stem the Modi juggernaut that had enjoyed unprecedented success in last eight months. The odds were heavily stacked against them. However, the relatively new outfit must be credited for the manner in which they ran their campaign ever since Kejriwal resigned from his post in February last year. With the BJP delaying the elections to the state assembly for reasons best known to them, the AAP got the time to re-group and formulate a strategy to counter the saffronists who were trying to cash in on PM Modi's popularity. Through Delhi Dialogue, the party managed to read the pulse of the voters while convincing them that they would not run away from power this time around. A strict screening process to select candidates and an effective social media campaign further helped their cause. Their 70 point agenda that included some populist measures helped them woo the lower and middle income groups away from the two national parties and helped the AAP register a historic win.

Courtesy: Desktop HD Wallpapers

For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the results of the Delhi polls have been their worst nightmare. Having bagged 31 seats in the 2013 state elections and won all seven seats in the parliamentary seats the following year, the saffron camp was reduced to just three seats. There is a serious need for introspection within the BJP as many political activists have pointed out, they seem to have handed an easy victory to the AAP on the platter. The delay in scheduling the polls seems to be the first mistake that the party made. As if it was not enough, the infighting within the party's state leadership as well as the move to parachute Kiran Bedi to led the campaign seem to have further contributed to their pathetic performance. In fact, the party seemed to have focused more on 'maligning' Kejriwal's image with PM Modi leading the pitch, rather than telling the people of Delhi what their plans are for the capital. The process of selecting candidates was delayed whereas the saffron camp did not even release a proper manifesto. All in all, the party seemed to have paid a heavy price for being arrogant and for running a 'negative' campaign in the polls. In what was a major setback, the party's CM candidate Kiran Bedi was beaten by AAP's S K Bagga from their stronghold of Krishna Nagar. The only silver lining was that its vote share as compared to the last state polls remained almost stagnant.

For the grand old party of Indian politics, the situation seems to be worsening. The Congress which had ruled the national capital for three straight terms could not even open its account. It managed to win just over 8 percent of the total votes where 62 of its 70 candidates even lost their deposits. Amongst them was its campaign chief Ajay Maken. It is imperative that the party's High Command takes some serious steps to arrest the decline in the fortunes of the INC.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part V

THE THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR

I am pretty sure that most of you will agree with me when I say that the elections to Delhi will be the most keenly fought electoral contest following the General polls 2014. The campaign was as bitter as it was intense. Unlike the other recently concluded state polls where the Congress put up a rather feeble resistance to the saffron juggernaut, the BJP seems to have found a worthy opponent in the AAP in the national capital. The AAP leadership as well as the thousands of volunteers and karya kartas working for Kejriwal's outfit deserve a round of applause for resurrecting the party from the shambles after the thumping that it got in May last year all thanks to morchas, bike rallies and nukkad nataks (street dramas) that they have undertaken in the last two months. Of course, the saffronists too made their work easier after a series of electoral blunders that saw them lose a lot of ground to their opponents as the polling date approached. In fact, opinion polls suggest that AAP may actually hold an edge over the BJP; meanwhile, the INC's situation continues to be pathetic. The impact that these polls will have will be huge and here are the points to watch out for as the EVMs are opened and the results are announced this Tuesday:

(1) The AAP's Battle For Survival: One can understand why the Delhi polls is so important for the Aam Admi Party (AAP) and its chief. After being demolished in the General polls and being wiped out of Delhi, Kejriwal & Co. have put all on the line. While many expected them to take a defensive line in wake of the May 2014 drubbing, the party cadre worked relentlessly to consolidate their substantial vote base amongst the low income workers and migrants who have traditional been Congress loyalists, besides luring a sizable chunk of traders away from the saffron camp. In spite of the fact that several of its former leaders have crossed over to the opposing camp, the AAP has fought the BJP tooth and nail using limited means and through unconventional and innovative methods, making sure that their vision of a corruption-free Delhi is put across to the electorate. While highlighting their performance during 49 day long government that the party had formed with the outside support of the Congress, Kejriwal has attacked the NDA regime at the Center for failing to do anything for the people of the capital in spite of being in power for the last seven months.

It is a 'do or die' scenario for the the former IRS officer and his outfit. A win would herald a second innings that would help it expand its support base beyond Delhi whereas a defeat could mean an abrupt end to AAP's political fortunes, making it one of the many parties that promised big things but could never deliver anything substantial. In politics, it is rare that a party gets an opportunity to make a comeback and it remains to be seen if Kejriwal and his outfit can grab this golden opportunity with both hands and make the most out of it, failing which, it could well sink into the oblivion.

(2) The End of Modi Mania? The BJP just had the best year in its three decade long history. Besides winning a clear majority on the floor of the Lok Sabha this May, it emerged victorious in Haryana and Jharkhand. In Maharashtra where it fought the polls without its ally - the Shiv Sena, the saffron outfit emerged as the single largest party, winning nearly twice as many seats as its friend turned foe turned friend. In Jammu Kashmir too, the party fared well, picking up 25 seats, all coming from the Hindu dominated Jammu region. It is clear that the persona of the PM Narendra Modi as a pro-development, no non-sense leader has largely been responsible for this wave of support to the BJP across most parts of the country, including those where the party has had minimal historical presence. As the Modi juggernaut has rolled, the BJP has been able to snatch state after state from the Congress and other weak regional satraps who seem to have been blown away.

However, the big question is whether the Kejriwal would be the man who could put a brake on the Modi bandwagon which till a month back looked unstoppable. Opinion polls suggest that the fight for the capital could be a photo finish between the two main contenders - the BJP and the AAP. The PM has addressed several rallies in Delhi where he tore into the Kejriwal's 'dismal' record while in office and asked him to join the Naxalites. On the other hand, the AAP chief's rallies too saw massive turnouts, much more than that of BJP's CM nominee Kiran Bedi. In fact, regional satraps including Mamta Bannerjee who are gearing up to fight the saffronists in their own backyards have put their weight behind the AAP, an indication of how important that results of Delhi 2015 could be on the Indian political landscape.

There has been a certain section in the media that believes that the Delhi polls are a referendum on Modi. In my opinion, such an analysis is a little far fledged. While the national capital is a cosmopolitan city, the voting patterns here, as in many of the other states and cities across the country cannot be extrapolated to the country as a whole. Of course, while a loss would be a blow to the PM, a victory will be the crowning glory in what has been a superb 14 month period for him and his party.

(3) Can 'Master Strategist' Amit Shah deliver yet again: Though the BJP fought the polls under the leadership of Narendra Modi, it was his Man Friday, Amit Shah was the real architect of the party's amazing tally in May last year. As the chief of the saffron outfit's campaign in the mega state of Uttar Pradesh, he ran an efficient campaign using Modi's persona, flaring up communal sentiments and striking deals with various socio-political organizations, thereby helping the BJP and its ally - the Apna Dal win 73 of the 80 parliamentary seats, a feat unparalleled in the country's electoral history. While the Gandhis and the Yadavs were reduced to their pocket boroughs, Mayawati's BSP was wiped off. As such, it did not come as a surprise when the former Gujarat Home Minister was made the national party president last year.

The move has certainly paid off. In Haryana, he decided to ditch the HJC and the saffron camp still managed to go past the half way mark at 45, forming its first government in the state's electoral history. In Jharkhand, he decided to play safe, forging an alliance with the Mahato's AJSU; the move paid off again with the coalition beating the Congress and the JMM. In the big state of Maharashtra, he took the risk of breaking ties with the Shiv Sena as the saffron allies failed to reach an agreeable seat sharing formula. As the results were announced, Maharashtra had its first BJP CM with members of the Sena joining his cabinet. Though his ambitious 'Mission 44+' did not exactly materialize in J&K, the BJP still win 25 seats, the most it had won ever. No wonder, he is considered to be the best electoral strategist in the country.

Unfortunately for him and his party, Shah's magic seems to be waning in Delhi this time around with the BJP committing one blunder after another. At the beginning of the campaign, the party appointed Satish Upadhyay as the head of its campaign instead of making Dr Harshavardhan its face in the state. With the AAP growing from strength to strength, the saffronists made Kejriwal's former colleague in the anti-corruption movement Kiran Bedi its CM candidate. Although the move was hailed by some as a master stroke, as days went by, it became clear that the former IPS officer failed to match the former Delhi CM's charisma at least in the political arena. In a desperate attempt to bolster the party's fortunes ahead of the polling day, the party president got in a host of bigwigs including the PM, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, Power Minister Piyush Goyal, Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and over 100 MPs to canvass for the party's nominees. Will this last ditch attempt pay off or will Delhi be a blot on Shah's rather envious report card so far.

(4) Kiran Bedi's political future: While there could be doubts whether the Delhi polls is a referendum on AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal or PM Narendra Modi, one thing is clear. The way the national capital votes will decide for sure, the fate of one politician - BJP's Kiran Bedi. The former tough cop who was with Anna Hazare in the anti-corruption movement is now in the saffron camp. In fact, her appointment as the BJP's CM candidate reportedly sparked infighting amongst the numerous camps that the Delhi unit of the party finds itself in. Though the AAP chief termed this as a move to shield Modi from the blame of the defeat, many thought that Bedi's clean image would compliment the wave in support of the BJP and help it go past the half way mark. Unfortunately, Bedi has not managed to 'set the stage on fire'. A defeat to the BJP would mean the end of her political ambitions though she is expected to easily win her constituency of Krishna Nagar, the stronghold of BJP leader Dr. Harshavardhan. A victory though would make her the CM of the capital.

(5) The fate of the Congress: The 'bad times' for the grand old party seems to never get over. As if the spate of electoral defeats over the last year were not enough, the INC seems to be headed to a third position finish in the Delhi state polls too. Clearly, the move to get in former Union Minister Ajay Maken has not worked the way the loyalists would have thought. The Opinion Polls indicate that the Congress may in fact perform worse than it did in December 2013 when it was reduced to just eight seats. This would be a massive blow to the party and its supporters. Following the rout in the General Polls last year, it seems that the party has not yet been able to re-invent itself or to put it in other words, the electorate has still not forgiven the party for the mistakes that it committed during its decade long regime at the Centre. Anything more than 8 would at least indicate that the Congress has improved its position somewhat whereas a tally less than that would raise serious questions over the party's future. In that case, the voices against Rahul Gandhi and his coterie of supporters will only grow stronger and many heavyweights might actually quit the 'sinking ship' like former minister Jayanti Natarajan did a few days ago.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)