THE RETURN OF THE KRAKEN

AMAR SINGH JOINS RLD TO REJUVENATE HIS POLITICAL CAREER

Who is creepier of the two? Amar Singh (Left) or the Kraken (Right)

I enjoy watching movies based on mythology and one of my favorites is the Clash of the Titans. All of you who have seen the movie will recollect the plot where Hades - the God of the Underworld revives the dreaded monster Kraken to strike fear in the minds of the people and make them respect the Gods. Of course, his sinister aim is to depose his brother Zeus who had tricked him earlier. Just like in the movie, the Kraken of Indian politics - Amar Singh is back from his political hibernation of four years; in fact the old guy is back with a bang. Earlier this week, the former Samajwadi Party leader joined Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). While age may have caught up with him, he still spoke like a Neta, apologizing for his remarks he had made earlier while he was associated with Mulayum's outfit and pledged his allegiance to Sonia Gandhi. Flanked by his protege Jaya Pradha, the only Bollywood personality who was by his side when he was unwell, Singh said that he was still open to the idea of joining the Congress, if invited by the UPA Chairperson to do so. The controversial businessman cum political has seen both the ups an downs of Rajneeti over the last six years. The 2014 election is going to be the most important battle of Singh's political career. A victory will be a fresh lease of life whereas a defeat will see him meet the same fate that Kraken did in the Hollywood movie I referred to earlier.

The Highs and the Lows: While he is controversy's favorite child, the former SP leader will be widely remembered for his role in the Indo-Nuclear deal. If you think that Amar Singh played a key role in the negotiation with US officials then you are absolutely wrong. All these high-level discussions are too much for the 'pea-brained' Amar to handle. While you can laugh on his knowledge, you just cannot deny that he can play his cards really well. As the Left withdrew their outside support to the UPA I government over the Indo-US Nuclear Deal, Mulayum Singh and the Samajwadi Party rushed to fill in the numbers, making sure that Manmohan Singh's only tough decision in his decade long tenure was passed in the Parliament. Amar Singh who was then a member of the Rajya Sabha from UP and the General Secretary of the SP played a crucial role in this episode. In fact, he was accused of trying to bribe three BJP MPs to vote in favor of the Bill. The friendship between the INC and the SP was short lived; as they went to the polls in 2009 without any pre-poll agreement, the two parties ended with 21 and 23 seats each. However, Mulayum's dream of becoming the 'King-Maker' in Delhi was shattered as the Congress crossed the 200 mark on its own and the UPA won a clear majority. Besides, it was in the same year that differences between two of Mulayum's top lieutenants - Amar and party's Muslim face Azam Khan came into prominence over Jaya Pradha's nomination from the Rampur constituency. At that time, the SP chief had reiterated his faith in Singh and expelled Khan for six years.

However, Amar Singh's fortunes began to slide in the later half of 2009. The figures of the 2009 Lok Sabha polls shocked Mulayum to the core. The BSP, in spite of being in power for nearly three year had the largest vote share of 27 percent whereas the Muslims, one of SP's primary vote bank were drifting to the Congress. With his eyes on the 2012 state polls (Link), Mulayum started wooing Amar's bete noire Azam Khan. Besides, the former General Secretary's high profile life style and Bollywood connections were seen as a stark contrast to the principal of Socialism which is 'supposed' to be SP's ideology by many loyalists. In January 2010, Amar Singh resigned from all party post and the following month was officially thrown out of the party. The next four years saw the shrewd politician see the lowest of lows. Many of his high society friends including Bade Bhaiyya, a certain Amitabh Bachchan refused to stand up for him. In fact, Jaya Bachchan who was a MP in the Upper House refused to resign in protest to the treatment meted out to her Devarji (Brother-in-law). The release of the 2006 tapes which shows him talking to politicians, Bollywood personalities, journalists and others proved to be a major embarrassment for him. In September 2011, he was jailed for a few days by the Supreme Court under the Prevention of Corruption Act for his alleged role in offering bribe to three BJP MPs in 2009. He formed a new political party - the Rashtriya Lok Manch but the experiment was a failure. For the next two years, the old war horse spent most of his time in hospital with many writing him off. However, in what seems to be a final stand, he has joined Chaudhary Ajit Singh's RLD along with aide Jaya Pradha in an attempt to salvage his political career.

Joining the RLD: As he was readying for his political comeback, it is certain that Amar would have weighed all his options wisely. Considering the fact that he was never a mass leader, reviving the now defunct Lok Manch was not an option. Although UP CM Akhilesh Yadav had recently mentioned him while speaking to the press, there was no way he was joining Mulayum back, at least after the humiliation he had faced earlier. Walking into the BJP would hurt his 'secular' credentials. In fact, Amar would have loved to join the Congress. It was speculated that Jaya Pradha was in touch with certain state Congress leaders to contest on an INC ticket. However, her demand to 'rehabilitate' her political mentor was something that the party thought could hurt it politically, considering the many controversies that Singh has courted in the past. As such, the only feasible option seems to have been the Rashtriya Lok Dal. Remember the three Singhs - Mulayum, Ajit and Amar were a part of the same government earlier when the SP and the RLD were allies in Lucknow. Secondly, with Ajit Singh joining the UPA, Amar would still be a part of the Congress-led coalition, if not the INC itself. It is very much certain that Amar's entry into the RLD had the approval of the Congress High Command.

How will the RLD benefit? Chaudhary Ajit Singh has been the 'most loyal' ally of the Congress in UPA II. However, like all constituents of the UPA, it is facing acute anti-incumbency. And to add to it, the Muzaffarnagar riots (Link) in Western UP has led to a 'trust-deficit' between the Jats and the Muslims, the two communities from where Ajit draws high strength. It is believed that the Jats are moving towards the BJP whereas the Muslims might go with the Congress or even the BSP. As such, Chaudhary is putting a lot of pressure on the Congress to help him in the elections. Two of the 5 MPs from Ajit Singh's party who had won the last elections have been expelled for anti-party activities. The Manmohan regime's decision to bring Jats under the ambit of OBC reservation was a clear move to earn brownie points in Haryana, Rajasthan and UP. Certainly, it is going to benefit the RLD in wooing back the community too. 

Secondly, with Jaya Pradha having won Lok Sabha polls from UP twice in the past, her entry into the outfit may increase Ajit's final tally by one. Of course, Ajit Singh has to carry the baggage of Amar's multiple controversies and flip flops from the past which opponents will use to embarrass him and his outfit. However, in the upcoming battle royal, it seems to be a price that the RLD chief is willing to pay. Meanwhile, the Congress and the RLD have finalized their seat-sharing formula for the upcoming polls with eight seats going into the latter's kitty. Jayant Chaudhary, the son and the successor of the party chief is likely to contest from Mathura. It is believed that Jaya will may contest from Bijnor whereas the Kraken, I mean Amar is certain to fight the elections from Fatehpur-Sikri.

RIOTS IN UP AND ELECTIONS 2014 - Part II

HOW THE RIOTS IN WESTERN UP WILL AFFECT THE FORTUNES OF PARTIES

Catch 22 situation: Yes, that is precisely the situation that Congress finds itself in Uttar Pradesh. In 2009, following Varun Gandhi's communal speech in his constituency of Pilhibhit, the Congress surpassed all expectations winning 21 seats after minority votes swung in its favor. Back then, it was heralded as the revival of the grand old party in the country's most populous state with party leaders

Rahul meeting a Jat delegation in Delhi

and workers crediting Rahul Baba for the miracle. Putting behind the disaster in Bihar in 2010, the INC, buoyed by its performance in the national polls, made its crown prince the face of its campaign here in 2012. Probably, confident of a good show following the hype around him in the media, Rahul Gandhi even tore the manifesto of the Samajwadi Party during a rally. However, it was Akhilesh and his outfit which walked away with the crown as the INC struggled to reach a paltry figure of 28. Though the Nehru-Gandhi bastions may be safe for the time being, there is absolutely no indication that the Congress may do well in 2014 polls in UP. As far as the western areas of the state are concerned, the conviction of its face in this region - Rasheed Masood for fraudulently nominating candidates during his tenure as the Union Health minister in 1990 is a big blow. The minority leader had quit the SP to join the INC in 2011 after a fall out with Azam Khan. The Congress' hopes of doing well here by allying with Ajit Singh's RLD too has been hit following the riots. As such, some in the party believe that they may do well if they discontinue the alliance with Singh and go all alone. What is adding to its woes is the fact that Jats seem to be shifting towards the BJP after it projected Modi as its PM candidate. The visit of the PM Dr Singh, the UPA Chairperson Mrs Gandhi and her son Rahul to relief camps to 'assess' the situation is nothing but a publicity stunt, with an eye on the national elections. Meanwhile, in a bid to attract minority votes into its fold, Congress leader Rashid Alvi has criticized the SP government of failing to protect the Muslims and calling the riots here, worse than the ones in Gujarat. Reservation for the Jat community, something that they are demanding for some time now, will tilt the balance in its favor.

The right platform: For a party that rose on to national politics following the demolition of the Babri Masjid in 1992, it is surprising that the BJP is in dire straits in its former bastion. Even in 2012, its performance under Hindutva icon Uma Bharati has been disappointing. However, on the eve of the

BJP President Rajnath Singh with Modi

General Elections, things seem to be finally going the saffron outfit's way. The nomination of tainted leader Narendra Modi as its PM nominee has galvanized the cadre. Aware that UP will be the key if he wants to occupy the top post, Modi has deputed his trusted aide - Amit Shah who has been accused of his role in the infamous Godhra riots in 2002, to manage his campaign in the state. In what was a clear case of raising the communal agenda, Shah paid a visit to the Ram Janmabhoomi site in Ayodhya, reiterating his party's stand to construct a Ram temple there. The crackdown by the SP government on the Ayodhya Yatra organized by the VHP, a constituent of the Sangh Parivar has been criticized by the party's top leadership. And a few months later, the riots in Muzaffarnagar has given another opportunity to the party to win votes. Although the state government has slapped cases against two of its MLAs - Suresh Rana and Sangeet Som under the stringent National Security Act (NSA) for whipping up communal flares, the party has in fact, felicitated them. If reports coming from the region are to be believed, the Jats are moving towards the BJP, impressed by the charisma of its leader, Mr Modi. Such a shift will be a major boost to the party. For the Gujarat CM who his known for his brash style of politics, the communal violence in Muzaffarnagar may propel him to New Delhi, similar to the incidents in Godhra back in 2002, which made him the most popular leader in Gujarat.

The sleeping giant: In 2007, Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) supremo beat all odds to script a fairy tale victory by crossing the half way mark on its own, courtesy 'Social Engineering'. However, after completing her five year term, which was marked by brazen corruption and shameless self

BSP supremo Mayawati

glorification, Behenji was routed by her bete noire - SP's Mulayum Singh in the next state polls. The sly vixen that she is, Mayawati kept a low profile following the electoral drubbing. Like a python waiting for the prey to walk into the trap, she waited all along for the young Akhilesh to falter. With the SP government failing to deliver on all fronts in the last two years, the BSP will try to maximize its poll prospects by attacking the regime for its failure to control the riots. With the SP and the BSP being the two main political parties in the state, the mistakes made by one generally helps the other. As such, it should not be surprising if Mayawati finishes first in the four way contest for Uttar Pradesh during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The BSP leader has always nurtured prime ministerial ambitions; you can expect her to go all out against the Yadav regime in the coming months. Another weapon that Mayawati has in her arsenal is, as mentioned earlier - Social Engineering. Like in 2007 when she romped home to power after weaving together the Dalit-Brahmin alliance, Maya may do exceedingly well in western UP if she can chose the right candidates.

For the previous post on this topic, click here (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Rahul meeting a Jat delegation in Delhi

Source: Indian National Congress - Official Website (Link)

(2) BJP President with Modi

Source: BJP - Official Website (Link)

(3) BSP supremo Mayawati
Source: The Hindu - Mayawati sees SP-BJP conspiracy (Link)

RIOTS IN UP AND ELECTIONS 2014 - Part I

HOW THE RIOTS IN WESTERN UP WILL AFFECT THE FORTUNES OF PARTIES

Though the riots that took place in parts of western Uttar Pradesh in August last year are a blot on the secular credentials of our nation, for our political parties who seem to be least bothered by the suffering of the people, it is just another opportunity to score brownie points over their rivals. Instead of trying to bring communities together and eliminate differences, outfits are adding smoke to the fire by openly taking sides with an eye on the upcoming General Elections scheduled for May this year. With Uttar Pradesh sending 80 MPs to the Parliament - the largest amongst all states, it is said that the road to New Delhi passes via Lucknow. As such, it should hardly be surprising that our leaders can pull off even the dirtiest of all tricks to come to power, even if it means that some innocent lives are lost or thousands are displaced from their homes. While some believed that the ascend of the young Akhilesh Yadav in March 2012 would usher in a new kind of politics in our most populous state, his innumerable failures in the last year and a half have proved even his most die-hard fans, if they exist, wrong.

The complete collapse of the administration during the riots and its inability to provide basic facilities in relief camps has drawn a lot of flake from the Opposition as well as social groups. While he was quick to suspend the honest IAS officer Durga Shakti Nagpal for whipping up communal sentiments by demolishing a compound wall of a mosque - a charge that has been refuted even by the people affected by this, the callousness that his regime displayed in restoring law and order is an indication, perhaps that the young Turk intends to carry forward his father's legacy of caste based and religion based politics.Though younger Yadav deserves all the criticism that he is getting, other parties can not wash their hands off it. Reports indicated that local leaders with affiliation to the BJP, the Congress as well as the BSP played a key role in whipping up communal sentiments. Finally, after the officials succeeding in stopping the violence, the high profile visits by political leaders including RLD's Arjun Singh,  the triumvirate of the Congress and the 'funniest' of all, that of the recently jailed Lalu Yadav of the RJD is nothing but another gimmick to cash in on the situation. As the big battle for Delhi is just months away, here is my take on how the events in Muzaffaranagar will affect the poll prospects of the different stake holders.

The biggest loser: While it is difficult to predict who will derive maximum 'benefit' from this ghastly tragedy, it seems that former PM Charan Singh's son and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) supremo Chaudhary Arjun Singh will be the one licking the wounds post the Lok Sabha polls. Though he has

RLD supremo Ajit Singh

always been over shadowed by the more vociferous and charismatic Mulayum Singh and Mayawati in the state politics, there is no doubt that Singh is one of the most clever politicians in the Hindi heartland. While his party may not boast of big numbers, his remarkable political acumen, his popularity in Western UP and the knack to ally with the right partners make him a prominent player in Lucknow. However, the last two years have not been a good one for either him or his party. In the 2012 state assembly polls, in spite of a pre-poll tie up with the much hyped Congress, the party dropped one seat to finish at a lowly 9 seats. Though the heir apparent and MP Jayant won the Mathura constituency, heavyweights like Baba Hardev Singh and Haji Yakub Qureshi had to bite the dust. The role of Singh who is serving as the Civil Aviation minister in the national cabinet, in pushing through the Jet-Etihad deal has raised many eyebrows. At a time when things are not going his way, the rift between the Jats and the Muslims - the traditional vote bank of the RLD following the riots may badly affect its performance, rendering it insignificant in the post poll scenario. With even the Congress re-thinking its alliance with Singh's outfit ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, the picture for Chaudhary looks gloomy.

A major blow: In March 2012, the wily Mulayum Singh Yadav took a big gamble by placing his son Akhilesh on the CM's chair. However, those who follow Indian politics know that anything that UP strong man does has a political motive behind it. By offering the post to his son, he was checking the ambitions of other big leaders - his brother Ram Gopal Yadav and the party's minority face Azam Khan. Having swept UP and after being elevated to the status of 'Netaji' by the party cadre, Singh

From left: Azam Khan, Mulayum Singh and Akhilesh

who was confident of an excellent performance in 2014 was hoping to play the King-Maker at the Centre while his son ruled from Lucknow. However, for once, his plan has backfired or at least it seems so as of now. Akhilesh's incompetency and misgovernance has led to a wave of anti-incumbency within two years of his party's outstanding results in the last state polls. The mishandling of the situation in Muzaffarnagar has alienated the Muslims - the community which, along with the Yadavs is the core vote bank of the Samajwadi Party (SP). Meanwhile, party leader Azam Khan who shares an uneasy relationship with Mulayum has been accused by many in the riot hit Muzaffarnagar district of 'orchestrating' the violence and his effigies have been burnt in several places. The only reason why I think that RLD will be the bigger loser as compared to its former ally the SP is the fact that the latter may still do well in case the Yadavs still stick with it. Though he has himself tried to maintain the moral high ground by criticizing the state government, Singh should realize that instead of such gimmicks, he must take his son to task and concentrate on improving the administration in the state. In 2009, the gravitation of a section of Muslims towards the Congress damaged the SP's performance, reducing it to a mere 23 seats. With so much negative publicity surrounding the riots, the party is under fire from all corners including former friends Ajit Singh and Lalu Yadav. However, one can never write the Pehalvan off; you never know when the master politician can pull off a surprise ahead of the big polls.

For the next post on this topic, click here (Link)

IMAGES 

(1) RLD supremo Ajit Singh
Source: Rashtriya Lok Dal - Official Website (Link)

(2) From left: Azam Khan, Mulayum Singh and Akhilesh
Source: Samajwadi Party - Official Website (Link)