O MAJHI RE

WILL MANJHI TAKES NITISH's SAHARA?

Jitan Ram Manjhi - Courtesy: FB

After taking a series of pot shots at Rashtriya Janat Dal (RJD) and its leader Tejashwi Yadav over the course of the month for failing to adhere to the coalition dharma, former Bihar CM and HAM(S) chief Jitan Ram Manjhi has decided to break ranks with the Mahaghatbandhan prior to the impending state polls, scheduled for the end of the year. The decision was taken at the party plenum convened at the chief's residence in Patna where it empowered the EBC leader to take all decisions regarding the future of the outfit. Ahead of the all important state elections, it was speculated that there could be some hiccups within the two major formations in Bihar and with his decision to call it splits with the RJD led UPA, the leader from Gaya may have just opened the flood gates for other smaller parties to look for greener pastures across the politicl spectrum.

For a state renowned for its politicians changing parties based on which way the winds are blowing, the leader from the Extremely Backward Musahar community is no exception. In fact, Manjhi has been the poster boy of the political opportunism that is so rampant in Bihar. He began his political career in the Congress in the early 80s and rose to become a cabinet minister in successive INC regimes in Patna before jumping to the Janata Dal and then moving to Lalu Yadav's RJD. Having served as a minister in Lalu and Rabri cabinets, he joined the Nitish Kumar led JD-U when the former came to power in late 2005. Manjhi has not been a stranger to controversies too; he was an accussed in the fake B Ed. degree racket during his tenure as the state education minister in the Lalu regime in the 90s but was absolved of all charges later.

The biggest moment in his four decade long political career came in 2014 when he was elevated to the post of the state's Chief Minister after incumbent CM Nitish Kumar took responsibilty of his party's rout at the hands of the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls and stepped down. This was seen as an attempt on part of the JD-U chief to woo back the EBCs who had gravitated to the saffron outfit under Narendra Modi. Unfortunately for Manjhi, his days at the center of politics in Bihar did not last long, especially after it emerged that he would not be a rubber stamp CM. Asked to resign in wake of the 2015 state polls to make way for Nitish to lead the Grand Alliance, the leader from Gaya put up a spirited defence, refusing to vacate the chair for his party chief. Clearly short of numbers to prove his majority, he resigned and launched the Hindustani Awam Manch (Secular), accusing his former boss of targeting him on the basis of his 'low' caste status.

Thanks to his short though controversial tenure as the Bihar CM, it was believed that Manjhi could potentially become the new face of the EBCs in Bihar, thereby cutting into the traditional votebank of the JD-U. Moreover, on the poll campaign, he would play up the sympathy card, vowing to avenge the insult heaped upon him and the entire EBC community by Nitish. It was on this assumption that the HAM-S was allocated 20 seats by the NDA for the hotly contested 2015 state polls. As the freinds turned foes turned friends - Lalu and Nitish joined hands, the NDA was swept away; HAM(S) managed to win just a single seat. In what was seen as a personal loss, Manjhi was himself beaten in Makdumpura though he did prevail in Imanganj, a saving grace at max. The result was a clear indication of the fact that the EBCs had continued to place their trust in the JD-U. August 2017 witnessed a major realignment of political forces in Patna. As his relations with his then deputy Tejaswi Yadav became untenable, Nitish ditched the RJD to rejoin the NDA, forcing Manjhi to ally the HAM(S) with the Mahaghatbandhan. In the 2019 General Elections, the party put up candidates in 3 parliamentary seats - Nalanda, Aurangabad and Gaya as a part of the UPA only to draw a blank. With two back to back setbacks, Manjhi and his outfit seem to be more or less sinking into political oblivion.

Now that he has dilly-dallyed with both the NDA and the UPA in Bihar, what's next for Manjhi? Perhaps, the easier (yet impractical) option is to work towards the formation of a Third Front in Bihar. The HAM(S) can tie up with smaller parties and social organizations including Assad-ud-din Owaisi's AIMIM, Pappu Yadav's Jan Adhikari Party (JAP), the NCP, the SP and the Left Parties amongst others. In the weeks ahead, as the two major political formations in the state sit down to finalize their seat-sharing arrangements, Manjhi could find ample opportunities to woo disgruntled elements including Kushwaha's RLSP, Sahani's VIP or even Paswan's LJP to his front. In case of a hung assembly, these smaller outfits could decide who forms the next government in Patna. However, I call this option 'impractical' because for long now, Bihar has given a clear mandate and I see no indication as to why 2020 would be different. Also, forming such a rainbow alliance is going to be a herculean task. Even otherwise, lacking a clear political agenda or dedicated cadre and voter base, the HAM(S) seems to be in no position to win more than one or two seats in case it fights alone, making it largely irrelevant even in case of a hypothetical hung assembly.

The other more practical approach is to accept that the HAM(S) experiment has flopped and merge it either into the BJP or still better, the JD(U). Political realignment is not something new in Bihar. Moreover, in the current scenario, incumbent CM Nitish Kumar may be more than willing to welcome back his former comrade. Apart from a 15 year long incumbency, the JD(U) is still facing some backclash for having dumped the RJD for the Modi led NDA. Some of the most prominent faces of the outfit including former President Sharad Yadav and spokesperson Pawan Kumar Verma are no longer with him. At this stage, Kumar should be relieved to have some of his older loyalists with him as he faces the toughest political battle of his career. The question is whether HAM(S) chief can swallow his pride and do a Sachin Pilot.

BIHAR 2015: THE VERDICT

BJP SWEPT AWAY AS LALU HELPS NITISH EARN A HAT-TRICK

Though many were expecting Bihar to be a close contest after a bitterly fought campaign, with leader from both camps often indulging in 'inappropriate' language and even going below the belt on some occasions, the people of India's third most populous state have delivered a resounding verdict, choosing the 'Mahaghatbandhan' led by by their incumbent CM Nitish Kumar over PM Narendra Modi's NDA. In many ways, it was a fairy tale come back for the JD-U chief; after a series of blunders that threatened to jeopardize his political career altogether, he has 'risen' from the ashes, beating the PM with whom, he has had some scores to settle with. While Kumar is all set to retain the chair of the CM, the 'Man of the Series' is certainly Lalu Prasad Yadav. The former Bihar CM who was once Nitish's staunchest rival is in my opinion, one of the biggest factors responsible for the 'grand' victory of the mega alliance. For the BJP and its allies though, the results have been crushing; saying that the NDA 'lost' the polls would be a massive under statement since they have been 'routed' with the regional front winning thrice as many seats as the BJP led coalition.

The highlight of the Bihar state polls 2015 for me has been the manner in which Nitish, Lalu and most importantly, the cadre of the two parties have resolved the bitter differences that existed amongst them in the past and literally blown away the BJP and its allies. While there is no doubt that this was an alliance to retain their political significance, the JD-U chief and the RJD supremo must be credited for sticking together in spite of varying styles of functioning and reaching consensus on all important issues including the post of CM, seat sharing arrangement, campaign strategy et all. Though there were some murmurs of dissent within their ranks initially, the cadre too seem to have worked. Remarkably, the regional front even managed to transfer their respective vote banks to candidates of the alliance across the state. The electoral campaign of the grand alliance was pretty simple. While the soft-spoken Nitish Kumar harped on the development bandwagon, the more 'brash' Lalu took on the hard line, hitting out at the PM and his aide Amit Shah at regular intervals. Of course, the many blunders from the saffron camp including the failure to project a local leader, the beef controversy and the 'unwarranted' statements regarding reservations made by the RSS chief only gave more ammunition to the regional players.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) finished as the single largest party in the state assembly, winning 80 of the 101 seats it contested, its best tally in over a decade. The Janata Dal - United (JD-U) finished with a tally of 71 whereas the Congress seems to have been a big beneficiary of the verdict. The INC won nearly 70% of the total seats it contested.

For the BJP, its dream of a saffron government in Patna was crashed after its alliance finished with a paltry tally of 58 seats. The fact remains that in spite of the NDA's superlative performance in the 2014 General Elections, the saffron outfit was always the 'underdog' considering that the two regional parties had joined hands to counter it. The BJP tried to counter this by roping in the PM to address over 30 rallies in the state and roping in JD-U rebel and former CM Manjhi with an eye on the Extremely Backward Class votes. However, a spate of errors on its part, some of which I have already recounted above cost it dearly. Some of the leaders of the party or belonging to its affiliates only made the matters worse by raking up communal and casteist sentiments further strengthening the anti-NDA votes. Spoilers like the AIMIM, the SP and the NCP failed to make any considerable dent in the Opposition's tally. Moreover, Nitish's record as a 'capable' CM and the lack of any substantial anti-incumbency on the ground meant that the BJP was wiped off Bihar.

The charts displayed here are created using the free online tool - ChartGo (Link).

DO OR DIE...

Lalu Yadav - Facebook

While most political commentators dipped their pens in black ink and wrote the political obituary of former CM Lalu Prasad Yadav after his party was reduced to mere four parliamentary seats in the 2014 Union Polls, the 'unholy and unexpected' alliance between him and his bête noire - Nitish Kumar seems to have given the RJD supremo one more chance to remain relevant in a state which he dominated for nearly two decades. In the run up to the big polls, the split in the NDA was seen by many as the 'opening' that Lalu needed to stage a political comeback after being on the fringes for nearly five years and his conviction in the multi-crore Fodder Scam; unfortunately, the Modi wave was just too strong for him to regain his lost glory. However, the realignment of political forces in the state with the coming together of the former Janata Dal constituents to take on a resurgent BJP could well be the opportunity that has been eluding the Yadav leader for long. With the sword of Damocles hanging over his head, Bihar 2015 has become a 'Do or Die' scenario for one of India's most colorful yet controversial politician.

Nobody understands the gravity of the situation more than Lalu himself. The astute politician that he is, the sheer number of 'sacrifices' that he has made in the last few months should make it clear how much importance the former Rail Minister attaches to the poll verdict. Firstly, in spite of his bitter rivalry with his one time comrade turned foe Nitish Kumar, the Yadav strongman agreed to a coalition with the latter's JD-U, the same party that has eroded Lalu's Muslim and lower caste vote base. Many were skeptical of such an alliance considering the bad blood between the two regional leaders and their ideological differences. However, Lalu on his part should be appreciated for holding on to 'Maha Ghatbandhan' in the wake of many differences. Secondly, aware of the popularity of the incumbent CM amongst the masses, the RJD supremo buckled under pressure, allowing the mega coalition to project Nitish as its CM nominee. This is so much different than the Lalu Prasad we have known over the years; remember, it was he who famously stalled Mulayum Singh Yadav's bid to become the PM back in the nineties. Not only this, he also agreed to fight the same number of seats as the JD-U, something that many believed was just not possible, more so after the RJD conceded the CM's chair to Nitish. Surely, the former CM has gone out of the way to ensure that his alliance remains strong in its battle against the NDA.

Lalu clearly understands his role in the campaign for grand alliance; his conviction in the Fodder Scam and the pathetic state of law and order in the state during his tenure as the CM make him the prime target of the BJP which has termed his days at the helm of affairs in Patna as 'Jungle Raj'. However, the RJD chief is the master in caste based politics, a factor that continues to resonate with the electorate here even today. No wonder than that he is playing the caste card to win over the voters. The recent comments by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat calling for the retrospection of reservation policy in the country and the spate in the killings of Dalits in the BJP ruled Haryana has given more ammunition for the Yadav strongman to train his gun at the saffron camp. Lalu has been the darling of the Muslims ever since he stopped Advani's Rath Yatra back in 1990 and he continues to flaunt his 'secular' credentials particularly in the wake of the Dadri lynching, hoping to stitch back his fabled Muslim - Yadav combination that was the base which catapulted him to three straight wins in the state. And in his vintage style, the Rashtriya Janata Dal boss has not shied away from attacking PM Modi even calling him a 'Brahm Pishchak' on one occassion.

Meanwhile, an indication of his declining clout in Bihar was evident from the defeat of his eldest daughter Misa Bharati from the Paliputra parliamentary seat in May last year. With his sons - Tej Pratap and Tejaswi in the fray for the state polls this time around, the stakes for Lalu Yadav are much higher. In case, the saffron alliance manages to sweep the state and the RJD fails to put up a good show, serious questions will be raised over the future of his party. In the past two years, several of the RJD's leaders including Ramkripal Yadav and Pappu Yadav have either deserted the outfit or have been shown the door. In case, the party fails to perform well in the scheduled polls, one can expect another exodus of the few remaining leaders from the party outside its first family. Not only will it relegate Lalu to the fringes, but will also take the gas out of the RJD's lantern. The Yadav strongman will certainly want his sons to have a good start in their political careers and for this to happen, a victory for the mega coalition in Bihar is essential.

Speaking to the media, Lalu had once remarked 'Jab tak rahega samose mein aloo, tab tak rahega Bihar mein Lalu'. While the starchy vegetable will continue to be a part of one of India's most famous snack for a long time, the November 12 verdict will decide the fate of the RJD chief and his party. Till then, we need to keep our fingers crossed.

P.S: I have started a new blog - Raajaniti (Link) dedicated to Indian politics. Henceforth, I will put up posts relating to Indian politics on both of these blogs. 

Also, I would request you to check out the new blog and please provide your valuable feedback.

WILL CHANKYA'S NEETI WORK?

NITISH LED 'SECULAR' FRONT TO TAKE ON THE MODI BRIGADE

The JD-U supremo Nitish Kumar who is dubbed by several political analysts as the modern day 'Chanakya' of the Indian political spectrum, pulled off another major political coup earlier this week when his name was declared as the official chief ministerial nominee of the newly formed and 'loosely knit' Janata Parivaar (JP) for the upcoming Bihar polls. With the war of words between the leaders of the state's top two regional parties - the JD-U and the RJD escalating over the past two months, the announcement made by the Janata Parivaar's de-facto chief Mulayum Singh Yadav ended weeks of speculations of a possible break down in the anti-BJP plank even before the elections. In what seemed to be a well choreographed affair, the name of Nitish as the face of the alliance was proposed by none other than his friend turned foe turned friend - Lalu Yadav.

Check Mating Lalu: Like Kautaliya who crafted the downfall of the much powerful Nanda Empire by training his protégé Chandragupta Maurya in the fourth century BC, the incumbent CM too played his cards well in the race to be the 'face' of the grand alliance. Having deposed his self-appointed successor Jitam Ram Manjhi from the helm of affairs after the latter refused to be a mere puppet, Nitish knew very well that the move could hurt him electorally with a section of the influential Maha-Dalit community refusing to back him for having mistreated their leader. Moreover, the lessons of the September 2014 by-polls were not lost on him; for halting the Modi juggernaut it was essential to keep the mega coalition together. At the same time though, to salvage lost pride and to maintain political relevance, it was equally important for him to lead it. With Lalu in the equation and the bitter animosity between the two leaders since the mid 90s being a stuff of legends, this was not going to be easy. Though the RJD chief has been barred from contesting elections after being convicted in the Fodder Scam, he was, or rather he still is, not very keen to fight the polls under the leadership of his one time rival. The Yadav strong man is a master in the art of dirty politics and side lining him was going to be a herculean task within itself.

This is exactly where Nitish displayed his political acumen; fully aware that the Congress, in spite of its moribund state of affairs in Bihar would still play a decisive role in deciding the CM candidate of the coalition, the JD-U chief had a special audience with Rahul Gandhi on a visit to Delhi. It is believed that the Congress Vice President, unlike his mother does not have a good opinion of the RJD chief. On the other hand, he has been vocal about his admiration of Nitish. One can recollect several instances wherein the junior Gandhi had praised the Bihar CM for his secular credentials even while he was an integral part of the NDA. In fact, this move was a master stroke; soon after the meeting, reports from the Congress camp suggested that INC would align with the JD-U irrespective of whether Lalu was with it or not. With the Gandhis turning their back on Lalu, the path was more or less clear for Kumar to head the anti-BJP plank. Moreover, Nitish's image as the man who transformed Bihar from Lalu's 'Jungle Raj' to one of the fastest growing states in India only further strengthened his prospects for the top post. As such, as the leaders of the Janata Parivaar met to discuss the course of action for the polls, the odds were comprehensively stacked in the favor of Nitish, forcing the wily Lalu to eat the humble pie.

The Nitish v/s Modi saga continues: With Kumar leading the mega coalition, the second part of the Modi - Nitish rivalry is all set to be played in the state of Bihar this winter. After walking out of the NDA over the candidature of the then Gujarat CM as the NDA candidate for the post of the Prime Minister, the Bihar CM was left with a bloody nose as Modi mania swept Bihar in May 2014, relegating the JD-U to a ignominious tally of two parliamentary seats. In a bid to save his face, Kumar resigned and handed power to his hand picked successor Jitin Ram Manjhi to appease the Maha Dalit community which voted for the BJP in the General Elections. In the mean time, following the realignment of the political forces in Bihar, Nitish and his new found allies - the RJD and the Congress managed to edge past the BJP by winning 6 of the 10 seats that went for the by-polls, a consolation victory of sorts. Ironically though, months later, as Manjhi transformed from a 'docile' leader into a 'clever' politician refusing to be 'controlled' by his party boss, Nitish expelled him from the JD-U and was himself back as the Bihar CM for the third time. With back to back political blunders, many were wondering if Nitish's astute acumen has deserted him and if his reign as Bihar's most powerful leader were numbered. And the man behind Nitish's unraveling was none other than his bete noire - Narendra Modi.

The Bihar polls is the perfect platform for Bihar CM to settle scores with the PM. A victory for the Janata Parivaar would be a jolt to the Modi bandwagon which hit a major road block when the AAP decimated the saffron party in Delhi earlier this year. A win would help Nitish regain most of the political pride that he had lost in the last two years and would re-establish him as a force to reckon with besides being a major fillip to the merger of the factions of the JP. However, there is a much bigger prize to be won, something that most political analysts have over looked thus far; after the General Polls, there is no 'credible' face to represent the anti-Modi or the non-NDA parties in the political sphere. The most obvious and legitimate choice to fill in this vacancy - Sonia Gandhi is not keeping well whereas the negativity still surrounding Rahul means that most believe that he is not yet 'mature' enough for the job. Regional satraps like Jayalalithaa and Patnaik who managed to fend off the Modi wave in their respective home turfs have been on cordial terms with the new government. Mamata Bannerjee has of late mellowed her anti-Modi rhetoric. The mess around AAP in the recent months has hit Arvind Kejriwal's popularity; the party's influence has not moved beyond the NCR in spite of that fabulous victory in February. A victory for the JP under Nitish would automatically catapult him to being the new anti-Modi face in Indian politics.

The Ground Realities: Though the coalition may have been announced, it remains to be seen how the talks regarding the seat sharing arrangements between the many constituents of this grand alliance progress in the coming weeks. Though the issue of the CM candidate has been settled for now, the basis for seat allocation has become another pain point for the two parties. The RJD wants the 2014 General Elections to be the basis to arrive at the seat sharing formula whereas the JD-U wants it to be the 2010 state polls. A bigger worry for the leaders of the alliance is whether their cadre and workers at the ground level are able to forget all the past differences and work together as a team. Considering the 'hatred' that the JD-U and the RJD have shared in the past, that seems to be a near impossible task. And lastly, will the alliance be able to break the caste barrier? For example, will a Yadav who has a loyal voter of the RJD for decades now vote for a JD-U nominee contesting as a candidate of the JP from his seat? Considering that the Yadavs harbour a special dislike for Kumar for ending their political dominance in Bihar, will they be comfortable with him as the CM candidate? Moreover, it remains to be seen how much damage will the Manjhi mishap cost in terms of the Extremely Backward Caste (EBC) votes. Surely, the modern day 'Chanakya' will have to put in all the 'Neeti' and perhaps, even some 'Kutneeti' to score a memorable hat-trick! 

ONE BIG, HAPPY FAMILY?

WILL THE REGIONAL BRIGADE SURVIVE

Janata Parivar 

Could this be 'Avengers' moment of Indian politics? Much like the movie series wherein several superheroes from the Marvel Comic world come together with the noble aim of saving the world from evil forces, last week, heads of six regional parties who are no less than 'superheroes' in the eyes of their followers joined hands to resurrect the erstwhile Janata Parivar, decades after the party splintered into numerous factions on account of personal rivalry, jealousy and ego hassles between its leadership. Of course, while they may claim that the reason for their coming together is to stop the rise of the 'Fascist' forces (read BJP), there is no doubt that the satraps, who played a key role in the formation of successive regimes in the Coalition Era are fighting for their political survival after being jolted in the General Elections 2014 when the Modi wave broke the traditional barriers of caste and region, something that these leaders and their parties usually thrive upon.

Whatever may be the reason for this realignment of political forces on the political spectrum, what is certain is that merger of the six outfits - the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Janata Dal - United (JD-U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Janata Dal - Secular (JD-S), the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Samajwadi Janata Party (SJP) is all set to have major implications in the years to come, provided these factions stay together which in itself is going to be an herculean task. Though the modalities are being worked upon by a six member committee, former Uttar Pradesh CM and SP supremo Mulayum Singh Yadav has been named as the chief of the Janata Party in its new avtaar.

From the outside, the merger might not sound as 'such a big deal'. After all, the six parties together have 15 MPs in the Lower House of the Parliament and are in no position to stall reforms or counter the government that has a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha. Most of these old warhorses are in the twilight of their political careers with a majority of them being a mere shadow of what they were in their heyday. Besides, the three regional players who withstood the Modi juggernaut namely Jayalalithaa of the AIADMK, Mamata Bannerjee of the TMC and Navin Patnaik of the BJD have kept a safe distance from this new political entity. Thus the influence of the new look Janata Parivar is restricted to UP and Bihar apart from marginal presence in Haryana and Karnataka.

While the regional satraps may still be licking the wounds that they suffered in the May 2014 polls, writing off the new front would be a foolish decision. With the Modi government yet to fulfill most of the promises it made to the public during the course of the electoral campaign, the merger could help consolidate the anti-Modi or anti-BJP vote bank. Considering that many of these leaders including Mulayum Singh, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav have a solid Dalit - Muslim support base, the new front is all set to give tough electoral challenge to a new resurgent BJP ahead of the prestigious Bihar polls which is scheduled later this year. In fact, even in the by-polls held in Bihar and UP last year, the regional parties put up a formidable show against the saffron camp. Buoyed by these results and keen to regain lost ground, the merger will help strengthen the Opposition benches which looks scattered for the time being. Additionally, the party now has 30 MPs in the Rajya Sabha which is nearly half the number that the NDA has as of now, making it a force to reckon with in the Upper House.

The success of the Janata Parivar and its future will largely depend on the results of the Bihar Polls. A victory for the front will be a mega boost for the leadership and will completely stop the Modi bandwagon which received a jolt in the Delhi elections. In that scenario, more regional players would be keen in joining hands with the party either by the way of merger or alliance. The Congress and the Left parties who too are in no situation to take on the BJP at present would be interested in dealing with the Mualyum led party. On the other hand, a defeat at the hands of the BJP though could well bring down the curtains on the Parivar, months after it was formed.

The real threat for the JP is from within; will the Yadavs, the Kumars and the Chautalas bury their bitter past and move on, rather move on as a team? Can Mulayum whose hopes of becoming the PM were dashed by Lalu, ever be able to trust the latter? Can Lalu and Nitish ever be friends? After all, they would call each other all sorts of names till about an year ago, isn't it? Though we do not have any concrete answers to any of questions, what we can be sure of is that the revival of the Janata Parivar has only made Indian politics in general and Bihar polls in particular more interesting.

2015: THE POLLS TO LOOK OUT FOR...

What an year 2014 has been. After 'misgoverning' the nation, especially in its second term, India's grand old party was taught a lesson that it will, rather it should never forget. The Congress that has ruled the country for nearly six decades, was reduced to a tally of 44 seats, the lowest in its 130 year long 'illustrious' history. The mother and son duo of Sonia and Rahul Gandhi tried to put on a brave face late that afternoon on the day of the results with Baba who spearheaded his party's spineless campaign, even smiling for the cameras as if 'nothing great had happened'. As if to rub salt into their wounds, the BJP under its controversial yet charismatic leader Narendra Modi edged past the halfway mark on its own, signalling the end of an era of unholy alliances and 'quid pro quo' politics that had lasted for nearly three decades. As the Modi wave raged on, regional satraps were swept away; leaders like Mulayum Singh Yadav, Nitish Kumar and Sharad Pawar were routed except in their boroughs while those like Mayawati were not even able to open their accounts. Of course, there were some notable exceptions; the likes of Jayalalitha, Mamta and Navin managed to keep the saffron forces at bay.

As far as the state polls are concerned, the BJP seems to have picked up from its superlative performance from December last year where it retained Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh while ending up as the single largest party in the capital. Months after that victory in the general polls, the BJP won over 120 seats in Maharashtra, nearly twice as much as its estranged ally, the Shiv Sena. As the two saffron parties patched up, Devendra Fadnavis was sworn in as the CM of the western state. Up north, the party created history yet again as it won a simple majority in Haryana in a poll that saw the incumbent INC being a distant third. Few months later, the BJP led alliance grabbed pole position in Jharkhand and swept Jammu though it fell behind the PDP by 3 seats in the final tally. In Andhra, it was the return of Chandrababu Naidu whereas his once bitter rival K C Chandrashekar Rao became the first CM of the newly created state of Telangana. The only consolation for the Congress was a win in the Arunachal assembly elections. Meanwhile, Odisha's Navin Patnaik and Sikkim's Pawan Kumar Chamling held their respective fortresses in spite of the emergence of strong opposition from newer forces in their backyards.

So after a cracking year that saw seismic shifts in the entire political landscape of the country, what does the upcoming year have for us. The first state to go for polls in 2015 will be Delhi that has been under President's Rule ever since Arvind Kejriwal resigned from the post of the CM following a tenure that lasted less than fifty days and was marred by several unwanted controversies. The AAP that made a blunder by opting out of the government in the national capital is hoping to put the ghost of 2014 General Polls in the past and regain the trust of the masses, something that pundits believe will be easier said than done. While the Congress continues to be a non-entity here, like in most parts of the country, the BJP is hopeful that Modi mania and AAP's track record will help it get the required numbers.

However, the polls to watch out for will be elections to the Bihar state assembly. After registering an impressive tally in the May where it won 32 of the 40 parliamentary seats, the NDA was in for a shock as the grand alliance of the ruling JD-U, the RJD and the Congress managed to salvage some pride by winning six of the 10 assembly segments where by-polls were held in August, earlier this year. The next state elections will be the true test of the new found bon homie between former bitter rivals - Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav. A victory for these former strongmen will have a tremendous repercussion on the politics of the country apart from reviving their individual political careers. In case the partnership does well, you can expect several other regional competitors to join hands in a bid to thwart the BJP which is emerging as a relevant player even in places where it earlier had marginal presence. A saffron win though will only further strengthen the aura surrounding the incumbent PM and further strengthen the BJP.

And then, there are some more states where the incumbent regimes seem to be shaky and snap polls could be held next year. The drama over the government formation is likely to continue over the next few weeks in Jammu Kashmir. Even if a coalition government is cobbled up in Srinagar, serious political differences between partners could force the governor to dissolve the assembly and ask the parties to seek a fresh mandate. Such fears are also emerging from Goa where Parrikar's departure has changed the political scenario in the state in spite of the fact that the BJP has a simple majority on its own; the state's deputy CM Francis D'Souza could raise the banner of revolt yet again and put the Parsekar government in minority in the house. In Jharkhand, the AJSU which has 5 seats could keep the BJP on tenterhooks and pull out of the government if its timely demands are not met. Perhaps, Assam could also go to polls in 2015 if the Congress fails to contain the rebellion brewing against Tarun Gogoi for some time.

Apart from state polls, here are the other big developments to watch out for in Indian polity as we usher in the new year.

(1) During the course of the high voltage campaign, Modi promised a lot of things to the electorate and a nation that had been let down by its political masters for five long years immediately gravitated towards the BJP. Now that the saffron outfit has comprehensively won the polls and the honeymoon period is over, the masses are eagerly awaiting for the big ticket reforms to be passed. Besides, with the entire opposition benches joining hands, it will be interesting to see how the incumbent regime manages to pass key legislations, especially in the Rajya Sabha where it lacks the necessary numbers.

(2) Following their phenomenal performance in the big polls, the BJP registered big gains in four of the seven states where elections were held in 2014. With Delhi and Bihar going to polls in the next few months, can the saffron outfit carry its good form into 2015? Bihar is particularly important since it will see the new look NDA take on the grand alliance consisting of the JD-U, the RJD and the Congress after the skirmishes that occurred between the two side over the last year.

(3) The last few months have been the worst in the history of the INC. After being beaten in state after state, we need to see if the new year can bring some good luck for the Congress. Also, we will see whether Rahul Gandhi has learnt from his past mistakes and has the ability to take the party forward, though many of the loyalists seem to have already given up on him.

(4) 2015 will be a crucial one for the latest avataar of the Janata Parivaar too. Apart from the Bihar elections where this new alliance has a lot at stake, we will see if the stalwarts including Mulayum, Lalu and Nitish can gulp their egos, overlook their past differences and stay together at the cost of their personal ambitions.

(5) Former CM Arvind Kejriwal and his party, the AAP are expected to come out all guns blazing to salvage some lost pride in the Delhi elections; however, regain the confidence of the people in the capital will be extremely difficult. The likes of Jaya, Mamata and Navin who did remarkably well in the general polls had their own share of controversies in 2014. While Jaya was briefly behind bars in the DA case, Mamata and Navin were busy fire fighting allegations against their confidantes in the Sharddha scam. What is in store for these regional bigwigs is something to look out for.

JHARKHAND POLLS 2014 - Part III

KEY TAKEAWAYS

The elections to the fourth Jharkhand state legislative assembly are over and the results are out. Having analyzed the numbers, let us see the seven key takeaways from the state assembly polls.

(7) Janata Parivar's 'unimpressive' debut: A few weeks earlier, Mandalite leaders including Mulayum Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Sharad Yadav and Deve Gowda came together to form a united front against the Modi juggernaut. Rattled by the results of the 2014 General Polls wherein these former colleagues in the erstwhile Janata Dal were literally obliterated in their own turfs, the regional satraps began talks of a possible merger sometime in the near future to take on a resurgent BJP under Narendra Modi and his lieutenant Amit Shah. The state elections was the first time that two major constituents of this new 'group', namely the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Janata Dal - United (JD-U) were fighting polls together. However, their failure to win any seats shows that the new avataar of the Janata Parivar still does not have the blessings of the janata (people). For all those who believe that the two outfits have no presence in the state, they won seven seats in the last polls. Moreover, the parties ended up fielding rival candidates from same constituencies in spite of hammering a 'seat sharing' arrangement with the Congress.

(6) Another electoral setback for the Congress: Year 2014 has been a forgettable year for the grand old party. Apart from a victory in Arunachal state polls, the party has not managed to win any major election in the country in the last twelve months. From hitting historical lows in the General Elections to being relegated to the third position in traditional strongholds of Maharashtra and Haryana, the INC under the 'able' leadership of Rahul Gandhi is hardly the party that it once was till sometime back. The results of the Jharkhand polls show that the 'lean' phase that the Congress is going through is far from over. The INC dropped eight seats to finish with a tally of 6. However, what should hurt Congress the most is the decision to pull the plug on its alliance with the JMM. Had the party continued the partnership, the results could have been different. Besides, it also failed to get Babulal Marandi on board in its rather disastrous coalition with the RJD and the JD-U.

(5) Babulal Marandi's return to the saffron fold? In 2006, the state's first CM Babulal Marandi broke his ties with the BJP after fallout with the incumbent CM Arjun Munda and launched his own outfit - the JVM-P. In the 2009 polls, he contested the elections in alliance with the Congress and won 11 of the 25 seats its contested primarily thanks to his popularity and Mr. Clean image. However, in the run up to the 2014 polls, he refused to be a part of the JMM-Congress coalition since he was not projected as the front's CM candidate. Despite of many of his MLAs crossing over to other parties, it did win 8 seats and finished as the third largest party in terms of numbers behind the BJP and the JMM. However, in what could be one of the biggest surprises of the polls, Marandi was defeated in both the seats he contested - Giridh and Dhanawar. After the results, Marandi who wanted to lead an anti-BJP front prior to the polls was ready to consider being a part of the new regime. Earlier, after his elevation as the BJP's PM designate, Modi had requested the JVM-P supremo to merge his party into the BJP. Now with the BJP still needing numbers to lessen its reliance on the AJSU, the saffron camp may vigorously woo its former leader to come back. Is a 'Gharwapsi' on the cards? Let's wait and watch.

(4) Is the Modi bandwagon losing steam? Though it did emerge as the single largest party in the state, the BJP's 'lackluster' tally and its inability to cross the half way mark on its own is a clear indication that the Modi wave is weakening. Opinion polls had suggested that the saffron outfit may go well beyond the 50 seats on its own considering that it lead in 56 assembly segments if we take into account the results of the May elections and in the aftermath of the breakup of the JMM - Congress alliance. However, all that the party could manage was 37 seats with its ally - the AJSU grabbing another 5 seats. This decline is a clear fact that the 'honeymoon' period of the Modi government at the Centre was enjoying for the last six months is slowly coming to an end. The PM had promised a lot of things during his electoral campaign and its time that he starts delivering on it, failing which the BJP might suffer the same fate as the INC.

(3) A new regional leader on the block: With Shibu Soren's health deteriorating many were speculating that his outfit - the JMM could slide into the oblivion. However, the manner in which his son and the incumbent CM Hemant Soren led his party and gave a tough fight to the BJP has been appreciated from political observers and opponents alike. Had it not been for him, the JMM would have never been able to retain its 2009 tally. He got back former JMM stalwarts including Stephen Marandi and Anil Murmu back into the party to further strengthen the party. Using his limited resources and and as some people have alleged, his links with underground groups, he was able to prevent the BJP to win a simple majority on its own. At the same time, there are some things that the younger Soren needs to address. His defeat from the family borough of Dhumka was a crude jolt to the JMM. Not only this, his party seems to be losing ground in its stronghold of the Santhal region which is a major cause of worry. Anyway, there is no doubt that with age on his side, Hemant Soren is fast emerging as one of the strong leaders from this part of the country and is set to play a significant role in the political scenario of Jharkhand in the future.

(2) End of Tribal politics? For long, the Sorens, the Mundas, the Marandis and the Mahatos have long dominated the politics of the state. However, the results of the 2014 state polls have come as a major setback for many of the state's top ST leaders. Four of the state's ex-CMs had to bite the dust. Arjun Munda who was considered to be the front runner to the top post was beaten from Khasran by Dasrath Gagrai of the JMM whereas former state secretary J B Tubid was defeated by Deepak Biruwa of the JMM from Chaibasa. AJSU chief and former Deputy CM Sudesh Mahato lost to JMM's Amit Kumar from Silli constituency. Babulal Marandi of the JVM-P was beaten from both the seats he contested. Incumbent CM Hemant Soren lost from his stronghold of Dhumka whereas another former CM Madhu Koda was beaten from Majhgaon.

Following the defeat of Arjun Munda, the stage is set for Jamshedpur - East MLA Raghuvar Das to become the first non-tribal CM from the state. The elevation of Das and the defeat of so many prominent tribal leaders has signaled a tectonic shift in the state politics at least for the next five years.

(1) End of political instability..... Not yet: Many have hailed the Jharkhand verdict as a vote for stability, something that the state had lacked for the past 14 years. With the BJP and the AJSU winning 42 seats, there is a strong belief that the state may have a stable regime for the next five years. Sadly though, in my opinion, that could be far from reality. The saffron outfit needs the support of 5 AJSU legislators to be in majority; past records tell us that the Sudesh Mahato led party is 'unreliable' and could keep the new CM on tenterhooks. That is not all. BJP's own former CM Arjun Munda may have lost the polls himself. However, he too will push for more ministries for his camp by playing the tribal card. Amongst the 6 smaller parties with one MLA each, the BJP will find it difficult to align with the two MLAs from the Leftist ideology or take help from controversial MLAs like Madhu Koda's wife Geeta or jailed leader Enos Ekka who is facing murder charges. Besides, getting back Babulal Marandi too isn't going to be easy. He too may play hard ball by pushing for becoming the CM of the state.

For all posts related to the Jharkhand State Polls 2014, click here (Link)

JHARKHAND POLLS 2014 - Part II

THE RESULTS

While the Opinion polls had suggested a 50+ tally for the BJP and its allies, the NDA managed to scrape past the half way mark by winning of 42 seats in the 81 member Jharkhand legislative assembly. Nevertheless it was the first time in the fourteen year long history of the state that the electorate here had given a clear mandate to one party or a pre-poll front. The BJP should be disappointed; having won 12 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in May this year and led in about 50 assembly segments, the saffron outfit's sheet is much below the expected mark. On the other hand, the ruling JMM too has reasons to be happy from the verdict; in spite of fighting anti-incumbency, the regional party managed to increase the tally it secured in the 2009 polls by a single seat. The Congress that contested the polls in alliance with the newly created Janta Parivar was routed, quite literally. Babulal Marandi's JVM-P too had its share of highs and lows.

Before, going into the details, here is a look at the final results as published on the ECI website (Link).

 

Sr.	Party Name	Seats
1.	National Democratic Alliance (NDA)	42
a.	- Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	37
b.	- All Jharkhand Student's Union (AJSU)	5
2.	JMM Front	19
a.	- Jharkhand Mukthi Morcha (JMM)	19
3.	United Progressive Alliance (UPA)	06
a.	- Indian National Congress (INC)	06
b.	- Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)	-
c.	- Janata Dal - United (JD-U)	-
4.	JVM-P Front	08
a.	- Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM-P)	08
b.	- Trinamool Congress (TMC)	-
5.	Others	06
a.	- Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)	1
b.	- Communist Party of India - Marxist-Leninist Liberation (CPI-MLL)	1
c.	- Jai Bharat Samanta Party (JBSP)	1
d.	- Jharkhand Party (JP)	1
e.	- Marxist Co-Ordination (MCO)	1
f.	- Navjawan Sangharsh Morcha (NSM)	1

Now coming back to the 'victors'. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) did end up as the single largest party in the state. However, what should worry the saffronists is that they could not go past the 41 mark on their own. After the results in the General Elections, pundits were expecting the party to nearly triple its 2009 tally of eighteen seats. With its ally, the All Jharkhand Student's Union (AJSU) winning 5 of the 8 seats that it fought in alliance with the BJP, the combine is all set to form the next government in Ranchi. The point to note is that in spite of their reasonably 'good' showing, the top leaders of both these outfits had to face defeat in their constituencies. Three time state CM Arjun Munda was beaten by JMM nominee Dasrath Gagrai from Khasran; Gagrai who had contested as a JVM-P candidate in 2009 had given lost a close contest to Munda back then. Meanwhile, AJSU chief Sudesh Mahato who hadd served as the state's Deputy CM too had to bit the dust from Silli constituency. The immediate consequence of this is that it has opened up the race for the CM's chair. Raghuvar Das who won from Jameshedpur - East is believed to be the front runner followed by state BJP unit president Ravindra Rai.

Though his party may have lost power, the outgoing CM and JMM leader Hemant Soren has emerged as a strong regional leader post the elections. Though his father and JMM supremo Shibu Soren may not have campaigned in the polls due to ailing health, he did put up a tough fight. It was only due to his focused campaign that the BJP was not able to go beyond the 50 way mark. On the other hand, there were some reasons for worry for him as well. Though he won from Barbhait, he lost his family stronghold of Dhumka to BJP's Lois Marandi. Also, the party's performance in the Santhal region was below par.

For all those Congressmen who thought that the Jharkhand polls could herald a new chapter in the INC's fortunes, especially after the successive electoral defeats in the last 12 months, their hopes were dashed. The Congress which had forged an alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Janata Dal - United (JD-U) could only manage six seats. Clearly, the move to sever ties with the JMM proved to be a blunder; besides, it also failed to strike a deal with Marandi's JVM-P which has a strong presence in certain pockets in the state. Had the party managed to form a grand alliance and bring the JMM, the JVM-P, RJD and JD-U together, the results could have been dramatically different.

Considering that most of his incumbent MLAs had switched sides prior to the polls, Babulal Marandi must be happy that he still won 8 seats. However, that seems to be the only solace for the state's first CM. Surprisingly, Marandi who is known for his 'clean' lost from both the seats that he contested. He was beaten by CPI-MLL's Rajkumar Yadav in Dhanwar and by BJP's Nirbhay Shabadi in Giridh. Meanwhile, with the BJP-AJSU combine winning a simple majority, he cannot play the role of the 'King-Maker' either. There are strong indications that Marandi's Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM-P) may join the ruling regime. Speculations are rife that the party may also be merged into the BJP.

Amongst the other smaller parties, the biggest shock came in the form of the defeat of former CM Madhu Koda from Majhgaon by JMM's Nial Puty. However, his wife Geeta managed to win the Jagganathpur constituency as a JBSP candidate. Besides, smaller regional outfits like the BSP, the JP and the NSM too bagged a seat each. Two candidates from Leftist parties like the the MCO and the CPI-MLL were also successful.

For long, it has been stated that political instability in the state has been the prime reason for Jharkhand to lag behind in the sphere of development. Illiteracy, malnutrition and poverty index continues to remain extremely high. Left winged extremism has only made the matters worse. Now that the BJP and its allies have got a clear mandate, the onus is on the party to deliver on its pre-poll promises.

For all posts related to the Jharkhand State Polls 2014, click here (Link)

JHARKHAND POLLS 2014: Part I

THE CONTENDERS

Fifteen years after it was carved out of districts comprising of southern Bihar, Jharkhand will vote in its fourth assembly elections over a period spanning nearly two months and in five different phases. Unfortunately, growing political instability and a strong presence of Naxalites have meant that the state has never been able to fulfill its true potential in spite of the fact that it is rich in minerals and other resources. As a matter of fact, ever since its creation, Jharkhand has seen nine Chief Ministers and three bouts of President's Rule making it the least politically stable state in the country in the last decade, leaving the likes of Goa and Meghalaya far behind. Hung assemblies have encouraged the politics of permutation and combination that have resulted in malpractices like horse trading, switching loyalties, merger, splits, unholy alliances and worst of all, rampant corruption and abuse of political power. With the results being scheduled on this Tuesday i.e. 23^rd December, the question everybody is asking is whether the people of the state will give a clear majority to one of the parties or coalition this time.

If the results of the 2014 General Elections are anything to go by, 'political instability' in the state may soon become passé. Riding high on the Modi wave, the BJP which was fighting the polls on its own strength after talks of a merger with Babulal Marandi's JVM-P failed, won an unprecedented 12 out of the 14 seats from here. In spite of being in an alliance with the JMM, the Congress failed to even open its account. On the other hand, Soren's outfit won two of the four seats from where it fielded its candidates. Meanwhile, other parties like the JVM-P, the RJD and the JD-U too met the same fate as the INC.

The mood in the saffron camp is upbeat; the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders and workers are confident that the trend seen in the Lok Sabha polls and the state elections in Maharashtra and Haryana will continue and the party will cruse past the half way mark along with its allies. PM Narendra Modi has addressed several rallies here that have seen attendance in large numbers. After dropping 12 seats in 2009 state polls, the BJP is confident of crossing the 40 mark this time around courtesy the Modi wave and the anti-incumbency against the incumbent Hemant Soren government. Former CM Arjun Munda (Kharsawan) and deputy CM Raghuvar Das (Jamshedpur - East) along with state party president Ravindra Rai and former Union Minister Yashwant Sinha are said to be the front runner to occupy the top post in case the 'lotus' does bloom in Ranchi.

Unlike the recently concluded state polls in Haryana, the party, aware of the state's electoral past is not taking any chances. Though it failed to woo back its former leader Babulal Marandi into the saffron fold, the BJP has cobbled up a formidable alliance with several regional players. Sudesh Mahato led All Jharkhand Student's Union (AJSU) has entered into a pre-poll pact with the BJP and will contest eight seats. The Shikaripura seat will be contested by the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). Upendra Kushwaha led Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RSLP) too has pledged its support to the NDA though it will not contest any seats.

With party chief Shibu Soren battling illness, his son and the incumbent CM Hemant Soren is heading the electoral campaign of the Jharkhand Mukhti Morcha (JMM). Although he is fighting anti-incumbency and was abandoned by the Congress after the debacle in the General Elections, the one time MLA from the family stronghold of Dhumka has managed to get on board several turncoats from other outfits like Chamra Linda from the TMC as well as Krishna Gagrai and Nizamuddin Ansari from the JVM. All ministers in his regime and most of the incumbent JMM MLAs have been retained. Veterans including Niral Purty (Majhgaon), Joba Manjhi (Manoharpur) and Niel Tirkey (Simdega) have been nominated. Soren bahu Sita who is said to have a love-hate relationship with her family has been retained from Jama in spite of being behind the bars in the 2012 horse-trading case.

After managing to stem the Modi juggernaut in Bihar by allying with the RJD and the JD-U, the Congress party called off its partnership with the JMM in the state after the latter refused to accommodate its new allies in the state coalition. Following its disastrous showing in the General polls, not many think that the INC will put up a good performance. As per the seat sharing agreement between the three parties, the Congress will contest 56 seats, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) will field nominations from 16 constituencies while leaving 9 seats for the Janata Dal - United (JD-U).

The state's first CM Babulal Marandi is confident of a good showing in spite of the fact that most of his 11 MLAs has jumped the ship prior to the polls. His party - the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajtantrik (JVM-P) won 11 of the 25 seats it contested in 2009 and he is confident of doing well again. Another former state CM, the controversial Madhu Koda who is still facing a CBI inquiry in cases of disproportionate assets is contesting from Majhgao whereas his wife Geeta is also contesting the polls from Jagganthpur.

For all posts related to the Jharkhand State Polls 2014, click here (Link)

ANALYZING THE BY-ELECTIONS

FOUR LESSONS THAT THE BY-POLLS TEACH US

Wow! Who could have predicted this? Less than four months after that landslide victory in favor of the BJP, not many of us would have thought that the results of the by-polls could be so different. As if the 3-0 rout at the hands of the Congress in Uttarakhand was not enough, the defeat in Bihar and the decimation in Uttar Pradesh have put a question mark over the perception that the BJP would make inroads into hitherto unknown lands, riding on Modi Mania. At the same time, the regional players, most of which were obliterated in the General Elections put up a good show, laying to rest 'fears' that the country was heading towards a two-party rule. Besides, the Congress too showed signs of improvement; the 120 odd year old party does have a future in our democracy. Analyzing the results from 14 states that have seen snap polls, here the four key takeaways from the August-September 2014 by-polls.

May 2014 was a victory for Modi, not for the BJP: I remember this one episode during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls when former BJP president Rajnath Singh had to change one of his tweets from 'Abki bar BJP Sarkar' to 'Abki bar Modi Sarkar'. Psephologists and political observers have for months debated whether the magical numbers that the saffron camp got in the General Elections was an endorsement of Modi or a vote for his party or a combination of both. I believe that the by-polls has settled this debate. Nothing else can explain why the BJP fared so badly in the by-elections in spite of that superlative performance it registered less than 150 days ago. There is no doubt that even without Modi the NDA would finish as the largest alliance after the big polls; however, there was no way that it could cross the 200 mark, forget 342. Modi's excellent oratory skills, his charisma an his portrayal as a 'pro-development' leader helped his party move from the Opposition benches to the Treasury benches in the Parliament. Thus the saffron camp was right in breaking ties with Nitish and suppressing the anti-Moi camp lead by Advani.

The Satraps strike back: For all those who wrote the obituaries of the likes of Mulayum, Mayawati, Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar in the aftermath of the May elections, the results of the by-polls have proved the satraps still have a future in the politics of the country, so what if it is not as bright as it was some time back. Bihar witnessed political churning with Lalu's RJD joining hands with Nitish Kumar's JD(U) and the INC to take on the NDA. The Mega-alliance helped the Manjhi government to survive the test on the floor of the state assembly and then went on to beat the NDA 6-4 in the ten constituencies where elections were held in August this year. In neighboring Uttar Pradesh, the ruling Samajwadi Party performed out of its skin to wrests as many as eight seats from the saffron camp. This in spite of the fact that the BJP tried to cash in on communal tensions that have gripped the western parts of UP over the last year.

The revival of the Congress: After being reduced to mere 44 seats in May which saw many of its stalwarts biting the dust, the results of the by-polls have enthused a bit of life in the grand old party which many believe was in its last leg. The rot in the organizational structure is still there and its present leadership is insipid. But a string of rather unexpected victories over its arch rival is what the doctor prescribed the INC ahead of the state polls scheduled later this year. In the hill state of Uttarakhand where in the incumbent regime was looking shaky after the defection of Satpal Maharaj to the BJP ahead of the May elections, the party won swept won all the three seats. In Rajasthan where it was literally bulldozed by the saffronists, first in 2013 and May 2014, the INC bagged three out of the four seats. Similarly, in Karnataka, Gujarat and MP, it managed to bag constituencies held by the BJP. The Congress needs to make sure that the momentum is taken forward; At the same time, it is important to address issues that are plaguing the party and address them at the earliest.

The fight for the states is heating up: After that stupendous win, there were many who felt that the BJP, riding high on its success, would sweep the four states that will see polls being conducted in the near future. In fact, in all these states, the saffron outfit put up an impressive show - the NDA won 42 of the 48 seats in Maharashtra; seven of its 10 candidates were elected in Haryana; it created history and swept Jammu while painting the national capital in orange. As such, it was expected that the party would not find it difficult to win all of these states. However, the results of the by-polls has put the BJP on the back foot and has shaken the confidence of its supporters. The break-up of the 25 year old BJP-Shiv Sena alliance has made matters worse in the western state. In Haryana too, the Bishnoi led HJC has pulled the plug on its coalition with the BJP. In Delhi, the AAP's string operation has 'exposed' the party's back door efforts to bag power. Besides, in Jammu Kashmir, the PDP seems to be edging the saffron outfit.

For more on the August-September 2014 By-polls, click here (Link)

WILL BIHAR STOP THE MODI MANIA?

AUGUST BY-POLLS WILL BE THE FIRST REAL TEST OF MODI SARKAR

Courtesy: Times of India

It has been nearly 100 days since Narendra Modi led the BJP to a handsome victory in the May 2014 General Elections. The magnitude of the win was such that a lot was expected from the former Gujarat CM after he shifted his base to New Delhi. With 282 seats in the Lower House of the Parliament, many thought that the new regime would pass certain key reforms since it was free from all sort of 'political compulsions' that the previous Central governments were subjected to by their allies. A look back at Modi's innings so far reveals that his report card has been average so far. On one side, the Centre has taken a firm stand on our Foreign Policy. The recent cancellation of Secretary level talks with Pakistan apart, the invitation to the SAARC Head of States at the time of Modi's swearing in and his visits to Bhutan and Nepal indicate a clear thought process in India's dealings with other nations in the neighborhood, something that the UPA regime hopelessly lacked. His interaction with the soldiers posted in Jammu Kashmir recently too has been appreciated. The markets also have responded well. However, one should also remember that the recent spike in incidents of communal clashes coupled with irresponsible statements made by some in the BJP and the Sangh Parivar has raised doubts about the intentions of Modi Sarkar. Prices of certain essential commodities continue to remain high whereas crime against women have increased to rise in recent months. At this juncture, the by-polls in four states will be a good indication to see if the Modi mania that had gripped the nation at least for the first half of the year continues to remain strong or not. Besides, with the recent realignment of political forces in Bihar, the results of these elections will also have a major impact on the strategies that the parties adopt in the next four months wherein at least four states will go to the polls.

With Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav joining hands, the political equations in the state of Bihar have been completely redrawn. The NDA's superlative performance here in May this year where it won 31 out of the 40 seats has raised serious question mark over the political future of the two former CMs of the state. With the JD-U being reduced to mere two seats, many believed that the Kurmi leader's decision to part ways with the BJP was a political blunder and the move would herald his downfall. Similarly, question marks were being raised about Lalu Yadav's relevance in state politics after the RJD could only bag 5 seats in spite of an alliance with the Congress. Aware of the fact that they had to work together to save their political careers, two of Bihar's biggest politicians dissolved their differences spanning nearly two decades and joined forces to combat a resilient saffron outfit which is looking much stronger following the May results. The Congress too decided to lent its support to the cause of thwarting the Modi bandwagon. In fact, this rather 'unholy' alliance has already won a few skirmishes with the NDA. After the resignation of Nitish Kumar as the CM of the state following the JD-U's rout in the Lok Sabha, the three parties worked together to make sure that the new government under the leadership of Jitan Ram Manjhi would survive the test on the floor of the state assembly. Moreover, the allies also fought the elections to the Upper House of the Parliament together and won.

With ten seats namely Narkatiaganj, Rajnagar, Jale, Chapra, Hajipur, Mohiuddinagar, Parbatta, Bhagalpur Banka and Mohania on the line, the Bihar by-polls will for sure be as intensely fought as the General Elections three months ago. In fact, the bearing that the results may have on the political scenario of Bihar is unprecedented, considering the fact that the state is scheduled to go to polls next year. Firstly, having jumped into the electoral fray together, the results will indicate if the masses have given their consent to the JD(U)-RJD combine. If the two new partners do well, they would contemplate continuing the alliance in the next state assembly elections too. On the other hand, a flop show would put serious question mark over the future of this partnership. Actually, several leaders in the JD-U have already hit out at Nitish for sealing the deal with the same party which he had earlier accused of hampering the growth of the state when it was in power. Similarly, the by-polls will also be an acid test for saffron leader Sushil Kumar Modi. With PM Narendra Modi not campaigning in the state, the outcome will also prove if the former Home Minister has the mettle and the support base to lead the saffron outfit in 2015. Finally, the victory of the former Kumar and Yadav, that is if it comes true, could also start a new trend in the country wherein regional rivals open up a united front against the BJP. The RJD supremo had already asked Mayawatiand Mulayum Singh Yadav to join hands to prevent the rise of the 'Fascist forces' in Lucknow, an idea which was considered by the SP chief but flatly rejected by Behenji. A good showing by the 'Mandal forces' may force the Dalit icon to rethink her decision.

Down south, in Karnataka, it is the Congress which is on the back foot. After registering a massive victory in the 2013 elections to the Vidhan Soudha when it swept away all the Opposition, the INC was delivered a rude shock as the BJP, now reinforced with the merger of the KJP and the BSR Congress into it, won nearly twice as many seats as the grand old party. The victory of former CM B S Yeddyurappa from Shimoga and his former cabinet colleague B S Sriramalu from Bellary has necessitated polls in the Shikaripura and Bellary(Rural) respectively. The third seat - Chikkodi-Sadalga was won by the Congress candidate Prakash Hukkeri who too made the cut to the Lok Sabha. The by-elections have become a prestige issue for CM Siddaramaih who has campaigned extensively in the three seats after there were rumors of discontent against him within the party. Though he may enjoy the complete faith of president Sonia Gandhi, he would prefer to silence his critics within the Congress ranks. With the Deve Gowda led JD-S refusing to field any candidates citing paucity of funds, the fight is between the two major national parties. Having been made the party's national vice president few days ago, it remains to be seen if the former KJP chief could pass on the electoral baton to his son B S Raghavendra who is contesting the polls as a BJP candidate. Likewise, the saffron nominee from Bellary is Sriramalu aide Obalesh. Besides the incumbent CM, the by-polls are also important for the two saffron leaders.

Like Siddaramaih, Punjab CM Parkash Singh Badal too is jittery ahead of the by-elections to the seats of Talwandi-Salboo and Patiala. If the results of the General Elections are anything to go by, the Akalis are certainly going to have a tough time in winning the two seats. If there was one party in the NDA which will be disappointed after the May 16 results, it has to be the SAD. Strong anti-incumbency against the Punjab government was the reason that the NDA could only win six of the 13 parliamentary seats from the north-western state. In fact, after the defeat of the Finance minister Arun Jaitley from Amritsar, Akali leader Naresh Gujral was frank enough to admit that the DDCA chief was paying the price for the failure of the incumbent regime. Meanwhile, the resignation of former CM Captain Amarinder Singh from the Patiala constituency following his victory over Jaitley and the defection of Talwandi-Sabo MLA Jeet Mohinder Singh to the SAD camp has resulted in the by-polls for the two constituencies. For both, the Badals as well as the Congress, a victory will be more of a morale booster since the incumbent regime has the necessary numbers on its side. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) which surprised everyone by bagging four parliamentary seats here will be the one to watch out for. It remains to be seen if the recent turmoil within the AAP will harm its chances in the only state where it is presently strong.

Lastly, elections will also be held for three seats - Vijayraghavgarh, Bahoriband and Agar in Madhya Pradesh. After sweeping the state late last year and winning a large majority of seats in the parliamentary polls, the saffron outfit is expected to bag all three seats. However, the multi-crore entrance scam came in the limelight has become a major embarrassment for MP CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan and his party. After filing a defamation case against Congress spokesperson K K Mishra is looking to extract revenge on the INC which is using this as an issue to make a comeback. And what better way to do this than winning these by-polls. As if the allegations from the Opposition benches were not enough, Union Minister and Shivraj's rival within the saffron camp - Uma Bharati too had demanded a probe into the entire fiasco. All these things apart, the BJP is expected to win all of these constituencies like it did in the last state elections. Meanwhile, the results of the by-elections in MP and other states will be out on 25^th August.

For more on the August-September 2014 By-polls, click here (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Times of India
Original: Times of India - Regrouped Lalu, Nitish take on BJP in Bihar bypoll today (Link)

CROSSING THE HURDLES

THE FIVE BIG CHALLENGES THAT THE BJP OVERCAME TO WIN 2014

Original: IBN Live/Reuters

It has been about a month since the BJP created history by becoming the first political party in nearly three decades to win a simple majority on its own. Of course, we all were expecting the saffron outfit to do well and finish as the single largest party in the 16 ^th Lok Sabha. Even some of the leaders in the UPA including NCP supremo Sharad Pawar had said this. However, except perhaps for the team at Today's Chanakya, I don't think that any of us had thought that the results of the General Elections would be so one sided in the favor of the BJP. While the numbers may suggest that it was a cake walk for Modi & Co., those of us who followed the entire campaign will know that it was anything but that. Here are the five big hurdles that the saffronists faced and overcame in its successful quest for power after warming the Opposition benches for ten years.

(5) Controversial Entries: With the UPA battling anti-incumbency and the NaMo fever sweeping the country, leaders from many political parties and organizations flocked to the saffron camp, hoping to finish on the winning side. The BJP courted a massive controversy when Pramod Muthalik, the head of the notorious Sri Rama Sena - a right wing group, infamous for attacking women in the port city of Mangalore for going to pubs. The move did not go well as the party came under attack from the media as well as women's right groups. Even Goa CM Manohar Parrikar made his displeasure clear to the central leadership, aware that the Hindutva leader's entry could hamper the party's support amongst the Christians in Goa. As PM nominee Narendra Modi intervened, the right wing leader was shown the door, barely 5 hours after joining the BJP. A teary eyed Muthalik swore revenge and contested the elections against BJP state president Prahlad Joshi who eventually emerged as the winner with a margin of over 1 lakh votes. Similarly, the induction of former JD(U) Rajya Sabha MP Sabir Ali raised a storm with minority leader Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi slamming his party for welcoming 'terrorist Bhatkal's friend'. While he was shunted out, Ali filed a defamation case against Naqvi. However, the two made up and according to reports, the party has decided to support Ali's candidature to the Upper House of the Parliament from Bihar as an independent candidate. And lastly, how can we forget the home-coming of former Karnataka CM B S Yeddyurappa and his colleague Sriramalu into the BJP. Although both had cases of corruption against them, the BJP welcomed them with open arms in spite of repeated attacks from the Congress. The move proved to be a political master stroke; the BJP won 17 seats in the southern state just a year after being routed in the 2013 state polls (Link).

(4) Coalition troubles: Many will remember the manner in which the JD(U) walked out of the NDA, following the announcement of Narendra Modi as the PM nominee of the BJP-led coalition. We shall discus that sometime later. Meanwhile, this was not the only problem the saffron outfit had, at least in regards to its coalition partners prior to the polls. To prevent the split in the anti-UPA votes, the BJP tried to do, what many believe is next to impossible - get the Shiv Sena (SS) and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) together as a part of the 'Mahayuti' (Link). As Nitin Gadkari opened channels of negotiations with Raj, his cousin Uddhav was furious, accusing the national party of violating the coalition dharma. Finally, the BJP relented; president Rajnath Singh making it clear that the party had nothing to do with MNS. A few days before the state went to the polls, there was turbulence in Andhra too. Having joined the NDA after ten long years, the TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu was furious at his coalition partner for fielding 'weak' candidates in the assembly polls held simultaneously with the 2014 General Elections. The BJP sent its spokesperson Prakash Javdekar who succeeded in placating the former AP CM. Even Punjab CM and Akali chief Prakash Singh Badal gave the BJP some headache when he introduced Arun Jaitley as the future Home or Finance Minister in an election rally in Amritsar. This was not taken lightly by some in the saffron camp. But as they say, 'alls well that ends well'. The BJP-SS combine swept Maharashtra whereas the BJP-TDP alliance pipped the YSRCP in the southern state. And, Badal's prophecy did come true.

(3) The war of succession: I remember an article in a reputed magazine in 2005 about the war of succession amongst the second generation leaders in the BJP. It had been an year since the NDA suffered a shock defeat and the Atal-Advani era was coming to an end. Questions were being raised as to who would lead the saffron camp in the absence of these stalwarts. The names doing the rounds back then included the late Pramod Mahajan, Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Rajnath Singh and Uma Bharati. Many believed that the party would implode, much like the Janata Party did in the eighties. With the BJP failing to come to power in 2009, the situation deteriorated further. Now, I believe in may ways, it is ironical that it was Modi who took the party to its best ever performance. Ironical, because in my opinion, the stigma of the Godhra riots was one of the biggest reasons that the Vajpayee government was voted out a decade ago. The former Gujarat CM was first appointed as the head of the BJP's election campaign. A few weeks later, the party made the big decision at a convention in Goa. In spite of opposition from all corners, including some senior leaders and pressure from the JD(U), Rajnath Singh went ahead and declared Modi as the NDA's official PM candidate (Link). He did not have any choice. The cadre wanted Modi, the RSS wanted Modi and as the results have shown, the entire nation wanted Modi to undo all the harm that the two terms of UPA had done to the country.

(2) Sulking Seniors: Probably, the biggest critic of the party and its new leadership was Bhishma Pitama - Lal Krishna Advani. The former Home Minister who was the saffron outfit's PM nominee in 2009. As the party anointed Modi as its PM candidate, the veteran leader decided to stay away from the function, giving the media and the Congress much needed ammunition to target the BJP. In the run up to the 2014 polls, there were reports that the convener of the NDA wanted to shift his constituency from Gandhinagar to Bhopal, preferring to work with Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Chauhan than under Narendra Modi. After hectic negotiations, Advani was somehow convinced to contest from his constituency in Gujarat. However, his confidante Haren Patak was dropped in favor of Modi's close aide film actor Paresh Rawal - a clear signal that the time had come for the old guard to exit, 'gracefully'. Another senior leader who was not in favor of Modi assuming the charge was former president Murali Manohar Joshi. Joshi who represented Varansi in 2009 was upset on being asked to shift his seat to Kanpur in favor of Modi. Another veteran Sushma Swaraj was reported not very happy with the rise of Modi. In fact, she had hit out at the party and its policies via twitter. After that unprecedented victory though and that splendid mandate, these things seem to be a thing of the past. Sushma has been given the charge of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Joshi is a front runner to the post of the Defence Minister. Advani, meanwhile, is still sulking!

(1) The ghost of the 2002 riots: Having come to power after riding high on the Hindutva sentiments following the demolition of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya, the BJP is considered by its opponents and the so-called 'intellectuals' to be a 'communal' party. With Modi at the helm of affairs, the problem compounded further. In fact, the elevation of the former Gujarat CM within the saffron ranks made 'Secularism' one of the most important issue ahead of the 2014 General Elections. To be frank, this was the ploy used by the likes of the Congress and its allies to divert the attention of the public away from the numerous failures of the UPA regime. In fact, many believed that the candidature of Modi whose role in the 2002 Godhra riots is still under the scanner would lead to consolidation of minority votes in favor of the Congress and thus hamper the BJP's prospects. Besides, a large number of 'intellectuals' and 'scholars' came out in the open and criticized the saffron camp for promoting the then Gujarat CM and endangering the so-called 'idea of India'. Probably the biggest blow came when the JD(U), the second largest party in the NDA walked out of the 17 year long alliance. Also, many were of the opinion that the anti-minority image of the BJP would keep many prospective allies at bay. However, both Narendra Modi and the BJP did work hard for an image makeover. Modi made 'development for all' his plank during the campaign. At the same time, while the PM nominee was on a whirlwind tour across the nation, president Rajnath Singh worked overtime to stitch together a formidable alliance to fight take on a weak UPA. The return of LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan to the NDA sent out a strong signal because the former Railway Minister was the first to exit the Vajpayee government after the 2002 riots. It was a clear indication that the Godhra was a thing of the past; an indication that politicians across the political spectrum were ready to do business with Modi. A clear and resounding mandate to Modi's BJP and the decimation of the Congress, the JD(U), the RJD and others has shown that the people of the world's largest democracy have moved on since 2002.

IMAGES

(1) Original: IBN Live/Reuters