WILL BIHAR STOP THE MODI MANIA?

AUGUST BY-POLLS WILL BE THE FIRST REAL TEST OF MODI SARKAR

Courtesy: Times of India

It has been nearly 100 days since Narendra Modi led the BJP to a handsome victory in the May 2014 General Elections. The magnitude of the win was such that a lot was expected from the former Gujarat CM after he shifted his base to New Delhi. With 282 seats in the Lower House of the Parliament, many thought that the new regime would pass certain key reforms since it was free from all sort of 'political compulsions' that the previous Central governments were subjected to by their allies. A look back at Modi's innings so far reveals that his report card has been average so far. On one side, the Centre has taken a firm stand on our Foreign Policy. The recent cancellation of Secretary level talks with Pakistan apart, the invitation to the SAARC Head of States at the time of Modi's swearing in and his visits to Bhutan and Nepal indicate a clear thought process in India's dealings with other nations in the neighborhood, something that the UPA regime hopelessly lacked. His interaction with the soldiers posted in Jammu Kashmir recently too has been appreciated. The markets also have responded well. However, one should also remember that the recent spike in incidents of communal clashes coupled with irresponsible statements made by some in the BJP and the Sangh Parivar has raised doubts about the intentions of Modi Sarkar. Prices of certain essential commodities continue to remain high whereas crime against women have increased to rise in recent months. At this juncture, the by-polls in four states will be a good indication to see if the Modi mania that had gripped the nation at least for the first half of the year continues to remain strong or not. Besides, with the recent realignment of political forces in Bihar, the results of these elections will also have a major impact on the strategies that the parties adopt in the next four months wherein at least four states will go to the polls.

With Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav joining hands, the political equations in the state of Bihar have been completely redrawn. The NDA's superlative performance here in May this year where it won 31 out of the 40 seats has raised serious question mark over the political future of the two former CMs of the state. With the JD-U being reduced to mere two seats, many believed that the Kurmi leader's decision to part ways with the BJP was a political blunder and the move would herald his downfall. Similarly, question marks were being raised about Lalu Yadav's relevance in state politics after the RJD could only bag 5 seats in spite of an alliance with the Congress. Aware of the fact that they had to work together to save their political careers, two of Bihar's biggest politicians dissolved their differences spanning nearly two decades and joined forces to combat a resilient saffron outfit which is looking much stronger following the May results. The Congress too decided to lent its support to the cause of thwarting the Modi bandwagon. In fact, this rather 'unholy' alliance has already won a few skirmishes with the NDA. After the resignation of Nitish Kumar as the CM of the state following the JD-U's rout in the Lok Sabha, the three parties worked together to make sure that the new government under the leadership of Jitan Ram Manjhi would survive the test on the floor of the state assembly. Moreover, the allies also fought the elections to the Upper House of the Parliament together and won.

With ten seats namely Narkatiaganj, Rajnagar, Jale, Chapra, Hajipur, Mohiuddinagar, Parbatta, Bhagalpur Banka and Mohania on the line, the Bihar by-polls will for sure be as intensely fought as the General Elections three months ago. In fact, the bearing that the results may have on the political scenario of Bihar is unprecedented, considering the fact that the state is scheduled to go to polls next year. Firstly, having jumped into the electoral fray together, the results will indicate if the masses have given their consent to the JD(U)-RJD combine. If the two new partners do well, they would contemplate continuing the alliance in the next state assembly elections too. On the other hand, a flop show would put serious question mark over the future of this partnership. Actually, several leaders in the JD-U have already hit out at Nitish for sealing the deal with the same party which he had earlier accused of hampering the growth of the state when it was in power. Similarly, the by-polls will also be an acid test for saffron leader Sushil Kumar Modi. With PM Narendra Modi not campaigning in the state, the outcome will also prove if the former Home Minister has the mettle and the support base to lead the saffron outfit in 2015. Finally, the victory of the former Kumar and Yadav, that is if it comes true, could also start a new trend in the country wherein regional rivals open up a united front against the BJP. The RJD supremo had already asked Mayawatiand Mulayum Singh Yadav to join hands to prevent the rise of the 'Fascist forces' in Lucknow, an idea which was considered by the SP chief but flatly rejected by Behenji. A good showing by the 'Mandal forces' may force the Dalit icon to rethink her decision.

Down south, in Karnataka, it is the Congress which is on the back foot. After registering a massive victory in the 2013 elections to the Vidhan Soudha when it swept away all the Opposition, the INC was delivered a rude shock as the BJP, now reinforced with the merger of the KJP and the BSR Congress into it, won nearly twice as many seats as the grand old party. The victory of former CM B S Yeddyurappa from Shimoga and his former cabinet colleague B S Sriramalu from Bellary has necessitated polls in the Shikaripura and Bellary(Rural) respectively. The third seat - Chikkodi-Sadalga was won by the Congress candidate Prakash Hukkeri who too made the cut to the Lok Sabha. The by-elections have become a prestige issue for CM Siddaramaih who has campaigned extensively in the three seats after there were rumors of discontent against him within the party. Though he may enjoy the complete faith of president Sonia Gandhi, he would prefer to silence his critics within the Congress ranks. With the Deve Gowda led JD-S refusing to field any candidates citing paucity of funds, the fight is between the two major national parties. Having been made the party's national vice president few days ago, it remains to be seen if the former KJP chief could pass on the electoral baton to his son B S Raghavendra who is contesting the polls as a BJP candidate. Likewise, the saffron nominee from Bellary is Sriramalu aide Obalesh. Besides the incumbent CM, the by-polls are also important for the two saffron leaders.

Like Siddaramaih, Punjab CM Parkash Singh Badal too is jittery ahead of the by-elections to the seats of Talwandi-Salboo and Patiala. If the results of the General Elections are anything to go by, the Akalis are certainly going to have a tough time in winning the two seats. If there was one party in the NDA which will be disappointed after the May 16 results, it has to be the SAD. Strong anti-incumbency against the Punjab government was the reason that the NDA could only win six of the 13 parliamentary seats from the north-western state. In fact, after the defeat of the Finance minister Arun Jaitley from Amritsar, Akali leader Naresh Gujral was frank enough to admit that the DDCA chief was paying the price for the failure of the incumbent regime. Meanwhile, the resignation of former CM Captain Amarinder Singh from the Patiala constituency following his victory over Jaitley and the defection of Talwandi-Sabo MLA Jeet Mohinder Singh to the SAD camp has resulted in the by-polls for the two constituencies. For both, the Badals as well as the Congress, a victory will be more of a morale booster since the incumbent regime has the necessary numbers on its side. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) which surprised everyone by bagging four parliamentary seats here will be the one to watch out for. It remains to be seen if the recent turmoil within the AAP will harm its chances in the only state where it is presently strong.

Lastly, elections will also be held for three seats - Vijayraghavgarh, Bahoriband and Agar in Madhya Pradesh. After sweeping the state late last year and winning a large majority of seats in the parliamentary polls, the saffron outfit is expected to bag all three seats. However, the multi-crore entrance scam came in the limelight has become a major embarrassment for MP CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan and his party. After filing a defamation case against Congress spokesperson K K Mishra is looking to extract revenge on the INC which is using this as an issue to make a comeback. And what better way to do this than winning these by-polls. As if the allegations from the Opposition benches were not enough, Union Minister and Shivraj's rival within the saffron camp - Uma Bharati too had demanded a probe into the entire fiasco. All these things apart, the BJP is expected to win all of these constituencies like it did in the last state elections. Meanwhile, the results of the by-elections in MP and other states will be out on 25^th August.

For more on the August-September 2014 By-polls, click here (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Times of India
Original: Times of India - Regrouped Lalu, Nitish take on BJP in Bihar bypoll today (Link)

CROSSING THE HURDLES

THE FIVE BIG CHALLENGES THAT THE BJP OVERCAME TO WIN 2014

Original: IBN Live/Reuters

It has been about a month since the BJP created history by becoming the first political party in nearly three decades to win a simple majority on its own. Of course, we all were expecting the saffron outfit to do well and finish as the single largest party in the 16 ^th Lok Sabha. Even some of the leaders in the UPA including NCP supremo Sharad Pawar had said this. However, except perhaps for the team at Today's Chanakya, I don't think that any of us had thought that the results of the General Elections would be so one sided in the favor of the BJP. While the numbers may suggest that it was a cake walk for Modi & Co., those of us who followed the entire campaign will know that it was anything but that. Here are the five big hurdles that the saffronists faced and overcame in its successful quest for power after warming the Opposition benches for ten years.

(5) Controversial Entries: With the UPA battling anti-incumbency and the NaMo fever sweeping the country, leaders from many political parties and organizations flocked to the saffron camp, hoping to finish on the winning side. The BJP courted a massive controversy when Pramod Muthalik, the head of the notorious Sri Rama Sena - a right wing group, infamous for attacking women in the port city of Mangalore for going to pubs. The move did not go well as the party came under attack from the media as well as women's right groups. Even Goa CM Manohar Parrikar made his displeasure clear to the central leadership, aware that the Hindutva leader's entry could hamper the party's support amongst the Christians in Goa. As PM nominee Narendra Modi intervened, the right wing leader was shown the door, barely 5 hours after joining the BJP. A teary eyed Muthalik swore revenge and contested the elections against BJP state president Prahlad Joshi who eventually emerged as the winner with a margin of over 1 lakh votes. Similarly, the induction of former JD(U) Rajya Sabha MP Sabir Ali raised a storm with minority leader Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi slamming his party for welcoming 'terrorist Bhatkal's friend'. While he was shunted out, Ali filed a defamation case against Naqvi. However, the two made up and according to reports, the party has decided to support Ali's candidature to the Upper House of the Parliament from Bihar as an independent candidate. And lastly, how can we forget the home-coming of former Karnataka CM B S Yeddyurappa and his colleague Sriramalu into the BJP. Although both had cases of corruption against them, the BJP welcomed them with open arms in spite of repeated attacks from the Congress. The move proved to be a political master stroke; the BJP won 17 seats in the southern state just a year after being routed in the 2013 state polls (Link).

(4) Coalition troubles: Many will remember the manner in which the JD(U) walked out of the NDA, following the announcement of Narendra Modi as the PM nominee of the BJP-led coalition. We shall discus that sometime later. Meanwhile, this was not the only problem the saffron outfit had, at least in regards to its coalition partners prior to the polls. To prevent the split in the anti-UPA votes, the BJP tried to do, what many believe is next to impossible - get the Shiv Sena (SS) and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) together as a part of the 'Mahayuti' (Link). As Nitin Gadkari opened channels of negotiations with Raj, his cousin Uddhav was furious, accusing the national party of violating the coalition dharma. Finally, the BJP relented; president Rajnath Singh making it clear that the party had nothing to do with MNS. A few days before the state went to the polls, there was turbulence in Andhra too. Having joined the NDA after ten long years, the TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu was furious at his coalition partner for fielding 'weak' candidates in the assembly polls held simultaneously with the 2014 General Elections. The BJP sent its spokesperson Prakash Javdekar who succeeded in placating the former AP CM. Even Punjab CM and Akali chief Prakash Singh Badal gave the BJP some headache when he introduced Arun Jaitley as the future Home or Finance Minister in an election rally in Amritsar. This was not taken lightly by some in the saffron camp. But as they say, 'alls well that ends well'. The BJP-SS combine swept Maharashtra whereas the BJP-TDP alliance pipped the YSRCP in the southern state. And, Badal's prophecy did come true.

(3) The war of succession: I remember an article in a reputed magazine in 2005 about the war of succession amongst the second generation leaders in the BJP. It had been an year since the NDA suffered a shock defeat and the Atal-Advani era was coming to an end. Questions were being raised as to who would lead the saffron camp in the absence of these stalwarts. The names doing the rounds back then included the late Pramod Mahajan, Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Rajnath Singh and Uma Bharati. Many believed that the party would implode, much like the Janata Party did in the eighties. With the BJP failing to come to power in 2009, the situation deteriorated further. Now, I believe in may ways, it is ironical that it was Modi who took the party to its best ever performance. Ironical, because in my opinion, the stigma of the Godhra riots was one of the biggest reasons that the Vajpayee government was voted out a decade ago. The former Gujarat CM was first appointed as the head of the BJP's election campaign. A few weeks later, the party made the big decision at a convention in Goa. In spite of opposition from all corners, including some senior leaders and pressure from the JD(U), Rajnath Singh went ahead and declared Modi as the NDA's official PM candidate (Link). He did not have any choice. The cadre wanted Modi, the RSS wanted Modi and as the results have shown, the entire nation wanted Modi to undo all the harm that the two terms of UPA had done to the country.

(2) Sulking Seniors: Probably, the biggest critic of the party and its new leadership was Bhishma Pitama - Lal Krishna Advani. The former Home Minister who was the saffron outfit's PM nominee in 2009. As the party anointed Modi as its PM candidate, the veteran leader decided to stay away from the function, giving the media and the Congress much needed ammunition to target the BJP. In the run up to the 2014 polls, there were reports that the convener of the NDA wanted to shift his constituency from Gandhinagar to Bhopal, preferring to work with Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Chauhan than under Narendra Modi. After hectic negotiations, Advani was somehow convinced to contest from his constituency in Gujarat. However, his confidante Haren Patak was dropped in favor of Modi's close aide film actor Paresh Rawal - a clear signal that the time had come for the old guard to exit, 'gracefully'. Another senior leader who was not in favor of Modi assuming the charge was former president Murali Manohar Joshi. Joshi who represented Varansi in 2009 was upset on being asked to shift his seat to Kanpur in favor of Modi. Another veteran Sushma Swaraj was reported not very happy with the rise of Modi. In fact, she had hit out at the party and its policies via twitter. After that unprecedented victory though and that splendid mandate, these things seem to be a thing of the past. Sushma has been given the charge of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Joshi is a front runner to the post of the Defence Minister. Advani, meanwhile, is still sulking!

(1) The ghost of the 2002 riots: Having come to power after riding high on the Hindutva sentiments following the demolition of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya, the BJP is considered by its opponents and the so-called 'intellectuals' to be a 'communal' party. With Modi at the helm of affairs, the problem compounded further. In fact, the elevation of the former Gujarat CM within the saffron ranks made 'Secularism' one of the most important issue ahead of the 2014 General Elections. To be frank, this was the ploy used by the likes of the Congress and its allies to divert the attention of the public away from the numerous failures of the UPA regime. In fact, many believed that the candidature of Modi whose role in the 2002 Godhra riots is still under the scanner would lead to consolidation of minority votes in favor of the Congress and thus hamper the BJP's prospects. Besides, a large number of 'intellectuals' and 'scholars' came out in the open and criticized the saffron camp for promoting the then Gujarat CM and endangering the so-called 'idea of India'. Probably the biggest blow came when the JD(U), the second largest party in the NDA walked out of the 17 year long alliance. Also, many were of the opinion that the anti-minority image of the BJP would keep many prospective allies at bay. However, both Narendra Modi and the BJP did work hard for an image makeover. Modi made 'development for all' his plank during the campaign. At the same time, while the PM nominee was on a whirlwind tour across the nation, president Rajnath Singh worked overtime to stitch together a formidable alliance to fight take on a weak UPA. The return of LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan to the NDA sent out a strong signal because the former Railway Minister was the first to exit the Vajpayee government after the 2002 riots. It was a clear indication that the Godhra was a thing of the past; an indication that politicians across the political spectrum were ready to do business with Modi. A clear and resounding mandate to Modi's BJP and the decimation of the Congress, the JD(U), the RJD and others has shown that the people of the world's largest democracy have moved on since 2002.

IMAGES

(1) Original: IBN Live/Reuters

BATTLEGROUND KARNATAKA - PART 2

THE QUADRIPARTITE BATTLE FOR POWER

However, the problem plaguing the Congress is the plethora of Chief Ministerial candidates and the friction amongst them which has jeopardized the entire process of ticket distibution with each leader wanting their confidantes to be the official nominees of the party. Siddaramaiah, the leader of opposition in the outgoing assembly is the front runner in the race. Belonging to the 80 lakh strong Kuruba Gowda caste,

Rahul at a rally in Dharwad

he has considerable influence in the Old Mysore region and has served as the Deputy CM twice in the past. However,the biggest problem for him is that since he joined the INC after falling apart with his mentor Deve Gowda in 2008, many look upon him as an outsider and prefer a Gandhi-Nehru loyalist for the post. Enter Dr. G Parameshwar who was hand picked by Sonia Gandhi to head the KPCC in 2010. Being a multiple time MLA and a fresh face, he does enjoy the support of many insiders. 'Rebel star' and Kannada film star Ambareesh also nurtures ambitions to occupy the CM's chair. With the death of Dr. Rajkumar and Vishnu Vardhan, he is regarded by many as the tallest star in the Kannada film industry today. However, his brash temperament and limited influence in the Mysore region may go against him. S M Krishna, the former External Affairs minister who has served as the CM from 1999 to 2004, has lost much of his former charisma but is still quite popular, especially in the capital Bengaluru which was developed a lot under his tenure. In case, no consensus emerges, he may be called up as the 'please-all' candidate. Leaders from Hyderabad-Karnataka region like Union Labour Minister Malikarjuna Kharge and former CM Dharam Singh are the dark horses in the race for the throne.

The father-son duo of Deve Gowda and H D Kumaraswamy are working tirelessly to replicate in Karnataka what the Yadavs (Mulayum-Akhilesh) and the Badals (Parkash-Sukhbir) did in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab respectively. In his 20 month long stint as the CM, some of the initiatives launched by the junior Gowda were well received by the people. No one can deny that the withdrawal of support to the BSY government in 2008 by the JD(S) which was projected as a betrayal by the BJP won it sympathy votes. Not so surprisingly, the party dropped 31 seats to finish with just 28 in the last elections. Even in

The Gowdas

2009 Lok Sabha, the JD(S) could win only 3 seats. This time though, the mood is upbeat and the Gowdas are trying their best to woo the voters even beyond their traditional bastion of Southern Karnataka and its core vote bank - the Vokkaliggas and become a strong third alternative to the people of the state. The party manifesto has several sops to the farmers, weavers and fishermen. The 'Secular' party has promised funds for the development of minorities and effectively tackle corruption. By declaring its candidate list after the two national parties, it has accommodated several dissident leaders from these outfits. If the JD(S) manages to get over 60 seats and the Congress fails to get a simple majority, then it will emerge as a key player in the post poll scenario. Some reports suggest that, the Gowdas may not be averse to ally with the BJP if that is an option to come to power. Unlike the Congress, the JD(S) does not have an recognized faces apart from the Gowda duo. In fact, two of its other prominent faces - Siddaramaiah and late M P Prakash had quit in 2008 after they realized that the former PM would only support his own son as the next chief. While this prevents any infighting, the sad part for the party is that it is heavily reliant on the top two for campaigning.

Many believe that in 2013 assembly elections, Yeddyurappa is likely to emerge as the King-maker, all the more because of the four way contest that the state will witness. After being side-lined in the party that he had built in the state, the Lingayyat strongman joined the Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) founded by Padmanabha Prasanna in November last year. Soon a string of loyalist, right from ministers in the government to corporators and  ordinary workers broke their association with the BJP and followed their leader into his new party. Yeddy's outfit has had a pretty good start as it managed to do fairly well in the local polls, managing to eat into the saffron outfit's vote share. By praising Sonia Gandhi before jumping to KJP, it is believed that he is keeping all his options open and might fill in the numbers in case the party falls short of the magic number. Though, he may vehemently deny it, allying with the BJP may not be difficult either. Thus, he is poised to become the game-changer in this elections in case of a hung assembly which is the most likely scenario if not for a Congress victory. However, allying with KJP may not be so easy. The long list of illegal land deals that he and his family members are accused of will hurt both the KJP and its future ally. Also, as the BJP leadership will tell, he is a tough nut to crack and will be difficult to deal with. One should not forget that besides DVS and Shettar, the KJP boss even had founder Prasanna thrown out of the party.

Yeddy knows that by leaving the BJP, he has taken the biggest gamble of his political career and a lot depends on the May 8 results. The Linggayyat leader who was known to given liberal grants to Mutts and seers during his tenure as the CM still has lots of friends in religious circles, all of whom are now

KJP supremo Yeddyurappa

asking their disciples to vote for him. Next, he is trying hard to get the support of the Muslim community which is traditional loyal to the Congress. Audacious as it may sound, Yedyurappa is asking the masses to vote for him and not the candidate. Even the manifesto is full of sops to appease all sections of the society, from women to farmers, from Christians whose churches were robbed in his tenure to the old. But the shrewd politician that he is, Yeddy knows that winning anything above 20 seats will not be easy. Four of his blue-eyed boys have ditched him, probably because they fear the influence that Shobha Karandalaje welds over the KJP chief. If the BJP manages to do the impossible and comes back to power and if the KJP gets less than 15 seats then he will have no option but to go back to his old party. In case, the Congress sweeps the polls, then Yeddy has to get over 20 seats to stay relevant. While a hung assembly will make him the most important politician in the state, any other result will hurt him in the long run. Finally, if he bags 30 odd seats in the new assembly, then he may well lead the Third Front in the 2014 general elections, something which he says is his aim.

Finally, there are several other smaller parties and a few national parties that have virtually no presence in the state that are contesting the elections. B Sriramalu who has floated his own party - the BSR Congress is expected to do well in Bellary region. With the Reddy brothers throwing their weight and money power behind him, the Nayaka leader is touring the state, hoping to grab as many seats as possible in his kitty. The Loksatta Party founded by former bureaucrat Jaiprakash Narayan, which has promised 'clean' politics is making its debut. Dalit leader and BSP supremo Mayawati has also addressed rallies in Northern Karnataka where she was quizzed by EC officials for carrying large sum of money with her. Besides, other national parties like the Samajwadi Party, Nationalist Congress Party, Communist Party of India (Marxist) and Janata Dal (United) have fielded their candidates in different parts of the state. The upcoming polls will be the most important in the history of Karnataka. While it is rich in natural resources and is the premiere IT destination of the country, the state has a long way to go as it continues to be plagued with frequent droughts, poverty and inequality. Apart from this, corruption has threatened to derail infrastructure development, especially in 'hi-tech city' Bengaluru. The people of Karnataka have to make the right choice so that the prestige of their state is restored.

Battleground Karnataka - Part 1 (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Rahul at a rally in Dharwad
Original: Rediff - Rahul turns 40 (Link)

(2) The Gowdas
Original: The Gowda merry go round (Link)

(3) KJP supremo Yeddyurappa
Original: Yeddyurappa.in (Link)