O MAJHI RE

WILL MANJHI TAKES NITISH's SAHARA?

Jitan Ram Manjhi - Courtesy: FB

After taking a series of pot shots at Rashtriya Janat Dal (RJD) and its leader Tejashwi Yadav over the course of the month for failing to adhere to the coalition dharma, former Bihar CM and HAM(S) chief Jitan Ram Manjhi has decided to break ranks with the Mahaghatbandhan prior to the impending state polls, scheduled for the end of the year. The decision was taken at the party plenum convened at the chief's residence in Patna where it empowered the EBC leader to take all decisions regarding the future of the outfit. Ahead of the all important state elections, it was speculated that there could be some hiccups within the two major formations in Bihar and with his decision to call it splits with the RJD led UPA, the leader from Gaya may have just opened the flood gates for other smaller parties to look for greener pastures across the politicl spectrum.

For a state renowned for its politicians changing parties based on which way the winds are blowing, the leader from the Extremely Backward Musahar community is no exception. In fact, Manjhi has been the poster boy of the political opportunism that is so rampant in Bihar. He began his political career in the Congress in the early 80s and rose to become a cabinet minister in successive INC regimes in Patna before jumping to the Janata Dal and then moving to Lalu Yadav's RJD. Having served as a minister in Lalu and Rabri cabinets, he joined the Nitish Kumar led JD-U when the former came to power in late 2005. Manjhi has not been a stranger to controversies too; he was an accussed in the fake B Ed. degree racket during his tenure as the state education minister in the Lalu regime in the 90s but was absolved of all charges later.

The biggest moment in his four decade long political career came in 2014 when he was elevated to the post of the state's Chief Minister after incumbent CM Nitish Kumar took responsibilty of his party's rout at the hands of the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls and stepped down. This was seen as an attempt on part of the JD-U chief to woo back the EBCs who had gravitated to the saffron outfit under Narendra Modi. Unfortunately for Manjhi, his days at the center of politics in Bihar did not last long, especially after it emerged that he would not be a rubber stamp CM. Asked to resign in wake of the 2015 state polls to make way for Nitish to lead the Grand Alliance, the leader from Gaya put up a spirited defence, refusing to vacate the chair for his party chief. Clearly short of numbers to prove his majority, he resigned and launched the Hindustani Awam Manch (Secular), accusing his former boss of targeting him on the basis of his 'low' caste status.

Thanks to his short though controversial tenure as the Bihar CM, it was believed that Manjhi could potentially become the new face of the EBCs in Bihar, thereby cutting into the traditional votebank of the JD-U. Moreover, on the poll campaign, he would play up the sympathy card, vowing to avenge the insult heaped upon him and the entire EBC community by Nitish. It was on this assumption that the HAM-S was allocated 20 seats by the NDA for the hotly contested 2015 state polls. As the freinds turned foes turned friends - Lalu and Nitish joined hands, the NDA was swept away; HAM(S) managed to win just a single seat. In what was seen as a personal loss, Manjhi was himself beaten in Makdumpura though he did prevail in Imanganj, a saving grace at max. The result was a clear indication of the fact that the EBCs had continued to place their trust in the JD-U. August 2017 witnessed a major realignment of political forces in Patna. As his relations with his then deputy Tejaswi Yadav became untenable, Nitish ditched the RJD to rejoin the NDA, forcing Manjhi to ally the HAM(S) with the Mahaghatbandhan. In the 2019 General Elections, the party put up candidates in 3 parliamentary seats - Nalanda, Aurangabad and Gaya as a part of the UPA only to draw a blank. With two back to back setbacks, Manjhi and his outfit seem to be more or less sinking into political oblivion.

Now that he has dilly-dallyed with both the NDA and the UPA in Bihar, what's next for Manjhi? Perhaps, the easier (yet impractical) option is to work towards the formation of a Third Front in Bihar. The HAM(S) can tie up with smaller parties and social organizations including Assad-ud-din Owaisi's AIMIM, Pappu Yadav's Jan Adhikari Party (JAP), the NCP, the SP and the Left Parties amongst others. In the weeks ahead, as the two major political formations in the state sit down to finalize their seat-sharing arrangements, Manjhi could find ample opportunities to woo disgruntled elements including Kushwaha's RLSP, Sahani's VIP or even Paswan's LJP to his front. In case of a hung assembly, these smaller outfits could decide who forms the next government in Patna. However, I call this option 'impractical' because for long now, Bihar has given a clear mandate and I see no indication as to why 2020 would be different. Also, forming such a rainbow alliance is going to be a herculean task. Even otherwise, lacking a clear political agenda or dedicated cadre and voter base, the HAM(S) seems to be in no position to win more than one or two seats in case it fights alone, making it largely irrelevant even in case of a hypothetical hung assembly.

The other more practical approach is to accept that the HAM(S) experiment has flopped and merge it either into the BJP or still better, the JD(U). Political realignment is not something new in Bihar. Moreover, in the current scenario, incumbent CM Nitish Kumar may be more than willing to welcome back his former comrade. Apart from a 15 year long incumbency, the JD(U) is still facing some backclash for having dumped the RJD for the Modi led NDA. Some of the most prominent faces of the outfit including former President Sharad Yadav and spokesperson Pawan Kumar Verma are no longer with him. At this stage, Kumar should be relieved to have some of his older loyalists with him as he faces the toughest political battle of his career. The question is whether HAM(S) chief can swallow his pride and do a Sachin Pilot.

BIHAR 2015: THE VERDICT

BJP SWEPT AWAY AS LALU HELPS NITISH EARN A HAT-TRICK

Though many were expecting Bihar to be a close contest after a bitterly fought campaign, with leader from both camps often indulging in 'inappropriate' language and even going below the belt on some occasions, the people of India's third most populous state have delivered a resounding verdict, choosing the 'Mahaghatbandhan' led by by their incumbent CM Nitish Kumar over PM Narendra Modi's NDA. In many ways, it was a fairy tale come back for the JD-U chief; after a series of blunders that threatened to jeopardize his political career altogether, he has 'risen' from the ashes, beating the PM with whom, he has had some scores to settle with. While Kumar is all set to retain the chair of the CM, the 'Man of the Series' is certainly Lalu Prasad Yadav. The former Bihar CM who was once Nitish's staunchest rival is in my opinion, one of the biggest factors responsible for the 'grand' victory of the mega alliance. For the BJP and its allies though, the results have been crushing; saying that the NDA 'lost' the polls would be a massive under statement since they have been 'routed' with the regional front winning thrice as many seats as the BJP led coalition.

The highlight of the Bihar state polls 2015 for me has been the manner in which Nitish, Lalu and most importantly, the cadre of the two parties have resolved the bitter differences that existed amongst them in the past and literally blown away the BJP and its allies. While there is no doubt that this was an alliance to retain their political significance, the JD-U chief and the RJD supremo must be credited for sticking together in spite of varying styles of functioning and reaching consensus on all important issues including the post of CM, seat sharing arrangement, campaign strategy et all. Though there were some murmurs of dissent within their ranks initially, the cadre too seem to have worked. Remarkably, the regional front even managed to transfer their respective vote banks to candidates of the alliance across the state. The electoral campaign of the grand alliance was pretty simple. While the soft-spoken Nitish Kumar harped on the development bandwagon, the more 'brash' Lalu took on the hard line, hitting out at the PM and his aide Amit Shah at regular intervals. Of course, the many blunders from the saffron camp including the failure to project a local leader, the beef controversy and the 'unwarranted' statements regarding reservations made by the RSS chief only gave more ammunition to the regional players.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) finished as the single largest party in the state assembly, winning 80 of the 101 seats it contested, its best tally in over a decade. The Janata Dal - United (JD-U) finished with a tally of 71 whereas the Congress seems to have been a big beneficiary of the verdict. The INC won nearly 70% of the total seats it contested.

For the BJP, its dream of a saffron government in Patna was crashed after its alliance finished with a paltry tally of 58 seats. The fact remains that in spite of the NDA's superlative performance in the 2014 General Elections, the saffron outfit was always the 'underdog' considering that the two regional parties had joined hands to counter it. The BJP tried to counter this by roping in the PM to address over 30 rallies in the state and roping in JD-U rebel and former CM Manjhi with an eye on the Extremely Backward Class votes. However, a spate of errors on its part, some of which I have already recounted above cost it dearly. Some of the leaders of the party or belonging to its affiliates only made the matters worse by raking up communal and casteist sentiments further strengthening the anti-NDA votes. Spoilers like the AIMIM, the SP and the NCP failed to make any considerable dent in the Opposition's tally. Moreover, Nitish's record as a 'capable' CM and the lack of any substantial anti-incumbency on the ground meant that the BJP was wiped off Bihar.

The charts displayed here are created using the free online tool - ChartGo (Link).

DO OR DIE...

Lalu Yadav - Facebook

While most political commentators dipped their pens in black ink and wrote the political obituary of former CM Lalu Prasad Yadav after his party was reduced to mere four parliamentary seats in the 2014 Union Polls, the 'unholy and unexpected' alliance between him and his bête noire - Nitish Kumar seems to have given the RJD supremo one more chance to remain relevant in a state which he dominated for nearly two decades. In the run up to the big polls, the split in the NDA was seen by many as the 'opening' that Lalu needed to stage a political comeback after being on the fringes for nearly five years and his conviction in the multi-crore Fodder Scam; unfortunately, the Modi wave was just too strong for him to regain his lost glory. However, the realignment of political forces in the state with the coming together of the former Janata Dal constituents to take on a resurgent BJP could well be the opportunity that has been eluding the Yadav leader for long. With the sword of Damocles hanging over his head, Bihar 2015 has become a 'Do or Die' scenario for one of India's most colorful yet controversial politician.

Nobody understands the gravity of the situation more than Lalu himself. The astute politician that he is, the sheer number of 'sacrifices' that he has made in the last few months should make it clear how much importance the former Rail Minister attaches to the poll verdict. Firstly, in spite of his bitter rivalry with his one time comrade turned foe Nitish Kumar, the Yadav strongman agreed to a coalition with the latter's JD-U, the same party that has eroded Lalu's Muslim and lower caste vote base. Many were skeptical of such an alliance considering the bad blood between the two regional leaders and their ideological differences. However, Lalu on his part should be appreciated for holding on to 'Maha Ghatbandhan' in the wake of many differences. Secondly, aware of the popularity of the incumbent CM amongst the masses, the RJD supremo buckled under pressure, allowing the mega coalition to project Nitish as its CM nominee. This is so much different than the Lalu Prasad we have known over the years; remember, it was he who famously stalled Mulayum Singh Yadav's bid to become the PM back in the nineties. Not only this, he also agreed to fight the same number of seats as the JD-U, something that many believed was just not possible, more so after the RJD conceded the CM's chair to Nitish. Surely, the former CM has gone out of the way to ensure that his alliance remains strong in its battle against the NDA.

Lalu clearly understands his role in the campaign for grand alliance; his conviction in the Fodder Scam and the pathetic state of law and order in the state during his tenure as the CM make him the prime target of the BJP which has termed his days at the helm of affairs in Patna as 'Jungle Raj'. However, the RJD chief is the master in caste based politics, a factor that continues to resonate with the electorate here even today. No wonder than that he is playing the caste card to win over the voters. The recent comments by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat calling for the retrospection of reservation policy in the country and the spate in the killings of Dalits in the BJP ruled Haryana has given more ammunition for the Yadav strongman to train his gun at the saffron camp. Lalu has been the darling of the Muslims ever since he stopped Advani's Rath Yatra back in 1990 and he continues to flaunt his 'secular' credentials particularly in the wake of the Dadri lynching, hoping to stitch back his fabled Muslim - Yadav combination that was the base which catapulted him to three straight wins in the state. And in his vintage style, the Rashtriya Janata Dal boss has not shied away from attacking PM Modi even calling him a 'Brahm Pishchak' on one occassion.

Meanwhile, an indication of his declining clout in Bihar was evident from the defeat of his eldest daughter Misa Bharati from the Paliputra parliamentary seat in May last year. With his sons - Tej Pratap and Tejaswi in the fray for the state polls this time around, the stakes for Lalu Yadav are much higher. In case, the saffron alliance manages to sweep the state and the RJD fails to put up a good show, serious questions will be raised over the future of his party. In the past two years, several of the RJD's leaders including Ramkripal Yadav and Pappu Yadav have either deserted the outfit or have been shown the door. In case, the party fails to perform well in the scheduled polls, one can expect another exodus of the few remaining leaders from the party outside its first family. Not only will it relegate Lalu to the fringes, but will also take the gas out of the RJD's lantern. The Yadav strongman will certainly want his sons to have a good start in their political careers and for this to happen, a victory for the mega coalition in Bihar is essential.

Speaking to the media, Lalu had once remarked 'Jab tak rahega samose mein aloo, tab tak rahega Bihar mein Lalu'. While the starchy vegetable will continue to be a part of one of India's most famous snack for a long time, the November 12 verdict will decide the fate of the RJD chief and his party. Till then, we need to keep our fingers crossed.

P.S: I have started a new blog - Raajaniti (Link) dedicated to Indian politics. Henceforth, I will put up posts relating to Indian politics on both of these blogs. 

Also, I would request you to check out the new blog and please provide your valuable feedback.

WILL CHANKYA'S NEETI WORK?

NITISH LED 'SECULAR' FRONT TO TAKE ON THE MODI BRIGADE

The JD-U supremo Nitish Kumar who is dubbed by several political analysts as the modern day 'Chanakya' of the Indian political spectrum, pulled off another major political coup earlier this week when his name was declared as the official chief ministerial nominee of the newly formed and 'loosely knit' Janata Parivaar (JP) for the upcoming Bihar polls. With the war of words between the leaders of the state's top two regional parties - the JD-U and the RJD escalating over the past two months, the announcement made by the Janata Parivaar's de-facto chief Mulayum Singh Yadav ended weeks of speculations of a possible break down in the anti-BJP plank even before the elections. In what seemed to be a well choreographed affair, the name of Nitish as the face of the alliance was proposed by none other than his friend turned foe turned friend - Lalu Yadav.

Check Mating Lalu: Like Kautaliya who crafted the downfall of the much powerful Nanda Empire by training his protégé Chandragupta Maurya in the fourth century BC, the incumbent CM too played his cards well in the race to be the 'face' of the grand alliance. Having deposed his self-appointed successor Jitam Ram Manjhi from the helm of affairs after the latter refused to be a mere puppet, Nitish knew very well that the move could hurt him electorally with a section of the influential Maha-Dalit community refusing to back him for having mistreated their leader. Moreover, the lessons of the September 2014 by-polls were not lost on him; for halting the Modi juggernaut it was essential to keep the mega coalition together. At the same time though, to salvage lost pride and to maintain political relevance, it was equally important for him to lead it. With Lalu in the equation and the bitter animosity between the two leaders since the mid 90s being a stuff of legends, this was not going to be easy. Though the RJD chief has been barred from contesting elections after being convicted in the Fodder Scam, he was, or rather he still is, not very keen to fight the polls under the leadership of his one time rival. The Yadav strong man is a master in the art of dirty politics and side lining him was going to be a herculean task within itself.

This is exactly where Nitish displayed his political acumen; fully aware that the Congress, in spite of its moribund state of affairs in Bihar would still play a decisive role in deciding the CM candidate of the coalition, the JD-U chief had a special audience with Rahul Gandhi on a visit to Delhi. It is believed that the Congress Vice President, unlike his mother does not have a good opinion of the RJD chief. On the other hand, he has been vocal about his admiration of Nitish. One can recollect several instances wherein the junior Gandhi had praised the Bihar CM for his secular credentials even while he was an integral part of the NDA. In fact, this move was a master stroke; soon after the meeting, reports from the Congress camp suggested that INC would align with the JD-U irrespective of whether Lalu was with it or not. With the Gandhis turning their back on Lalu, the path was more or less clear for Kumar to head the anti-BJP plank. Moreover, Nitish's image as the man who transformed Bihar from Lalu's 'Jungle Raj' to one of the fastest growing states in India only further strengthened his prospects for the top post. As such, as the leaders of the Janata Parivaar met to discuss the course of action for the polls, the odds were comprehensively stacked in the favor of Nitish, forcing the wily Lalu to eat the humble pie.

The Nitish v/s Modi saga continues: With Kumar leading the mega coalition, the second part of the Modi - Nitish rivalry is all set to be played in the state of Bihar this winter. After walking out of the NDA over the candidature of the then Gujarat CM as the NDA candidate for the post of the Prime Minister, the Bihar CM was left with a bloody nose as Modi mania swept Bihar in May 2014, relegating the JD-U to a ignominious tally of two parliamentary seats. In a bid to save his face, Kumar resigned and handed power to his hand picked successor Jitin Ram Manjhi to appease the Maha Dalit community which voted for the BJP in the General Elections. In the mean time, following the realignment of the political forces in Bihar, Nitish and his new found allies - the RJD and the Congress managed to edge past the BJP by winning 6 of the 10 seats that went for the by-polls, a consolation victory of sorts. Ironically though, months later, as Manjhi transformed from a 'docile' leader into a 'clever' politician refusing to be 'controlled' by his party boss, Nitish expelled him from the JD-U and was himself back as the Bihar CM for the third time. With back to back political blunders, many were wondering if Nitish's astute acumen has deserted him and if his reign as Bihar's most powerful leader were numbered. And the man behind Nitish's unraveling was none other than his bete noire - Narendra Modi.

The Bihar polls is the perfect platform for Bihar CM to settle scores with the PM. A victory for the Janata Parivaar would be a jolt to the Modi bandwagon which hit a major road block when the AAP decimated the saffron party in Delhi earlier this year. A win would help Nitish regain most of the political pride that he had lost in the last two years and would re-establish him as a force to reckon with besides being a major fillip to the merger of the factions of the JP. However, there is a much bigger prize to be won, something that most political analysts have over looked thus far; after the General Polls, there is no 'credible' face to represent the anti-Modi or the non-NDA parties in the political sphere. The most obvious and legitimate choice to fill in this vacancy - Sonia Gandhi is not keeping well whereas the negativity still surrounding Rahul means that most believe that he is not yet 'mature' enough for the job. Regional satraps like Jayalalithaa and Patnaik who managed to fend off the Modi wave in their respective home turfs have been on cordial terms with the new government. Mamata Bannerjee has of late mellowed her anti-Modi rhetoric. The mess around AAP in the recent months has hit Arvind Kejriwal's popularity; the party's influence has not moved beyond the NCR in spite of that fabulous victory in February. A victory for the JP under Nitish would automatically catapult him to being the new anti-Modi face in Indian politics.

The Ground Realities: Though the coalition may have been announced, it remains to be seen how the talks regarding the seat sharing arrangements between the many constituents of this grand alliance progress in the coming weeks. Though the issue of the CM candidate has been settled for now, the basis for seat allocation has become another pain point for the two parties. The RJD wants the 2014 General Elections to be the basis to arrive at the seat sharing formula whereas the JD-U wants it to be the 2010 state polls. A bigger worry for the leaders of the alliance is whether their cadre and workers at the ground level are able to forget all the past differences and work together as a team. Considering the 'hatred' that the JD-U and the RJD have shared in the past, that seems to be a near impossible task. And lastly, will the alliance be able to break the caste barrier? For example, will a Yadav who has a loyal voter of the RJD for decades now vote for a JD-U nominee contesting as a candidate of the JP from his seat? Considering that the Yadavs harbour a special dislike for Kumar for ending their political dominance in Bihar, will they be comfortable with him as the CM candidate? Moreover, it remains to be seen how much damage will the Manjhi mishap cost in terms of the Extremely Backward Caste (EBC) votes. Surely, the modern day 'Chanakya' will have to put in all the 'Neeti' and perhaps, even some 'Kutneeti' to score a memorable hat-trick! 

ONE BIG, HAPPY FAMILY?

WILL THE REGIONAL BRIGADE SURVIVE

Janata Parivar 

Could this be 'Avengers' moment of Indian politics? Much like the movie series wherein several superheroes from the Marvel Comic world come together with the noble aim of saving the world from evil forces, last week, heads of six regional parties who are no less than 'superheroes' in the eyes of their followers joined hands to resurrect the erstwhile Janata Parivar, decades after the party splintered into numerous factions on account of personal rivalry, jealousy and ego hassles between its leadership. Of course, while they may claim that the reason for their coming together is to stop the rise of the 'Fascist' forces (read BJP), there is no doubt that the satraps, who played a key role in the formation of successive regimes in the Coalition Era are fighting for their political survival after being jolted in the General Elections 2014 when the Modi wave broke the traditional barriers of caste and region, something that these leaders and their parties usually thrive upon.

Whatever may be the reason for this realignment of political forces on the political spectrum, what is certain is that merger of the six outfits - the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Janata Dal - United (JD-U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Janata Dal - Secular (JD-S), the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Samajwadi Janata Party (SJP) is all set to have major implications in the years to come, provided these factions stay together which in itself is going to be an herculean task. Though the modalities are being worked upon by a six member committee, former Uttar Pradesh CM and SP supremo Mulayum Singh Yadav has been named as the chief of the Janata Party in its new avtaar.

From the outside, the merger might not sound as 'such a big deal'. After all, the six parties together have 15 MPs in the Lower House of the Parliament and are in no position to stall reforms or counter the government that has a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha. Most of these old warhorses are in the twilight of their political careers with a majority of them being a mere shadow of what they were in their heyday. Besides, the three regional players who withstood the Modi juggernaut namely Jayalalithaa of the AIADMK, Mamata Bannerjee of the TMC and Navin Patnaik of the BJD have kept a safe distance from this new political entity. Thus the influence of the new look Janata Parivar is restricted to UP and Bihar apart from marginal presence in Haryana and Karnataka.

While the regional satraps may still be licking the wounds that they suffered in the May 2014 polls, writing off the new front would be a foolish decision. With the Modi government yet to fulfill most of the promises it made to the public during the course of the electoral campaign, the merger could help consolidate the anti-Modi or anti-BJP vote bank. Considering that many of these leaders including Mulayum Singh, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav have a solid Dalit - Muslim support base, the new front is all set to give tough electoral challenge to a new resurgent BJP ahead of the prestigious Bihar polls which is scheduled later this year. In fact, even in the by-polls held in Bihar and UP last year, the regional parties put up a formidable show against the saffron camp. Buoyed by these results and keen to regain lost ground, the merger will help strengthen the Opposition benches which looks scattered for the time being. Additionally, the party now has 30 MPs in the Rajya Sabha which is nearly half the number that the NDA has as of now, making it a force to reckon with in the Upper House.

The success of the Janata Parivar and its future will largely depend on the results of the Bihar Polls. A victory for the front will be a mega boost for the leadership and will completely stop the Modi bandwagon which received a jolt in the Delhi elections. In that scenario, more regional players would be keen in joining hands with the party either by the way of merger or alliance. The Congress and the Left parties who too are in no situation to take on the BJP at present would be interested in dealing with the Mualyum led party. On the other hand, a defeat at the hands of the BJP though could well bring down the curtains on the Parivar, months after it was formed.

The real threat for the JP is from within; will the Yadavs, the Kumars and the Chautalas bury their bitter past and move on, rather move on as a team? Can Mulayum whose hopes of becoming the PM were dashed by Lalu, ever be able to trust the latter? Can Lalu and Nitish ever be friends? After all, they would call each other all sorts of names till about an year ago, isn't it? Though we do not have any concrete answers to any of questions, what we can be sure of is that the revival of the Janata Parivar has only made Indian politics in general and Bihar polls in particular more interesting.

FRIENDS..... AGAIN

THE IMPACT OF THE REGROUPING OF THE 'SOCIALISTS' ON INDIAN POLITY

Earlier this week, the various fragments of the erstwhile Janata Dal who were literally obliterated in the May Lok Sabha polls decided to join hands in a bid to save their political careers and form a united front against the so-called communal forces led by Modi and a resurgent BJP while being at an arm's length from the Congress which is still battling anti-incumbency in spite of being out of power for over six months. After having played a key role in the formation of successive governments at the Centre for over two decades, these regional satraps found themselves rendered 'political insignificant' after the saffron outfit crossed the halfway mark on its own earlier this year. The Samajwadi Party (SP) which won a decisive mandate in 2012 polls in Uttar Pradesh could not win a single seat outside its family fiefdom as Amit Shah scripted a fairy tale victory for his party in the northern state. The then Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, the self-proclaimed 'upholder' of India's secular ideals was given a mega jolt even as Lalu's much hyped 'comeback' was derailed by Sushil Kumar Modi and his new allies - LJP's Paswan and RSLP's Kushwaha. The misery of other 'former' strongmen namely Deve Gowda and Om Prakash Chautala only compounded further. Now that these 'wise men' of Indian politics have left behind their past differences and agreed to work together, let us for moment ponder as to what implication such a union will have on the politics of the country in the near future.

No prices for guessing as to who benefits the most out of this move. The results of the Bihar by-polls have proved that the only way to effectively counter the Modi-Shah bandwagon is to cobble up coalitions keeping aside bitter rivalries and forgetting ideologies (read 'unholy' alliances). With the state elections scheduled next year, the likes of Nitish, Lalu and Sharad Yadav have to ensure that the anti-BJP vote does not split and the best way to bring together the Maha Dalits, the Yadavs and the Muslims is to revive the Janata Parivaar.

With many expecting Modi to be at the helm of affairs for a long innings, it just makes sense for the regional bigwigs to stick together or risk being out of 'business'. At the same time, many are doubting whether the new outfit could sustain itself; after all, each of these men has a big ego. Moreover, at various times in the past, they have fought and hurled the choicest abuses on each other. Remember those days in the mid 90s when Lalu thwarted Mulayum's dreams of becoming the PM. Perhaps, the biggest hurdle for them will be make sure that they continue to remain united. For the time being, the SP chief is all set to be the leader of the new party; not only does his party have the maximum number of MPs in the Parliament, it also continues to remain in power in UP.

For the first time in many, many years, the prospects of a non-Congress, non-BJP front seem to be more likely than ever. This latest endeavor is different from the Third Front in the sense that all these satraps will now (hopefully) fight under a unified leadership and a common symbol. The BJP certainly has reasons to worry as it makes its task in Bihar all the more difficult. And then, there is the fear of consolidation of the secular votes in the upcoming elections. The saffron outfit has to reconsider its decision of further alienating its allies like the Akalis and the Shiv Sena. The BJP cannot afford to act 'haughty' and 'mistreat' its partners in the NDA, an accusation that many have levied against it in the recent past.

At least the BJP is in power and at present has the arsenal to see off this threat. Spare a thought for the Congress. As if the fact that it is at a historic low and is being led by Rahul Gandhi is not enough, this new formation could relegate the INC to the third position. With the likes of Yadavs and Kumar on the same platform, there is a high probability that the Muslim voters will gravitate away from it, further alienating the grand old party. At a time when the party is desperate to find strong regional allies to take on the government, this new development will reduce its options. Meanwhile, the numbers also gives these leaders more bargaining power in dealing with the Congress.

Lastly, what does this development mean for other political parties in India. The Communists are grinning as they have always been advocating for a strong front consisting of regional players. On the other hand, the three big satraps viz Mamta, Jaya and Patnaik who have managed to beat the saffronists in their backyard are looking at this development very closely. The revival of the Janata Dal (JD) opens a new set of opportunities for them; they will now have three alternatives in the future and will be in a good position to play hard ball. Sharad Pawar who broke his alliance with the Congress just before the Maharashtra state polls too has welcomed this move. The JD will like to get him on board. Ditto with Ajit Singh who was washed out in the Union polls; though he may have his differences with the Chautalas, convincing him to join the front, considering his present political fortunes will be easy. Frankly, if the leaders do manage to win Bihar, I will not be surprised if some of the disgruntled sections within the NDA like the Akalis and Ram Vials Paswan or for that matter, Mayawati decides to do business with the new front. A host of parties including the PDP, the JMM, the TRS, the AIUDF and the AIMIM could be open to work with the JD while resisting a direct merger. In the south, the DMK and the YSRCP will be happy to extend support to the new outfit since they cannot afford to back either of the two national parties at this moment.

ANALYZING THE BY-ELECTIONS

FOUR LESSONS THAT THE BY-POLLS TEACH US

Wow! Who could have predicted this? Less than four months after that landslide victory in favor of the BJP, not many of us would have thought that the results of the by-polls could be so different. As if the 3-0 rout at the hands of the Congress in Uttarakhand was not enough, the defeat in Bihar and the decimation in Uttar Pradesh have put a question mark over the perception that the BJP would make inroads into hitherto unknown lands, riding on Modi Mania. At the same time, the regional players, most of which were obliterated in the General Elections put up a good show, laying to rest 'fears' that the country was heading towards a two-party rule. Besides, the Congress too showed signs of improvement; the 120 odd year old party does have a future in our democracy. Analyzing the results from 14 states that have seen snap polls, here the four key takeaways from the August-September 2014 by-polls.

May 2014 was a victory for Modi, not for the BJP: I remember this one episode during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls when former BJP president Rajnath Singh had to change one of his tweets from 'Abki bar BJP Sarkar' to 'Abki bar Modi Sarkar'. Psephologists and political observers have for months debated whether the magical numbers that the saffron camp got in the General Elections was an endorsement of Modi or a vote for his party or a combination of both. I believe that the by-polls has settled this debate. Nothing else can explain why the BJP fared so badly in the by-elections in spite of that superlative performance it registered less than 150 days ago. There is no doubt that even without Modi the NDA would finish as the largest alliance after the big polls; however, there was no way that it could cross the 200 mark, forget 342. Modi's excellent oratory skills, his charisma an his portrayal as a 'pro-development' leader helped his party move from the Opposition benches to the Treasury benches in the Parliament. Thus the saffron camp was right in breaking ties with Nitish and suppressing the anti-Moi camp lead by Advani.

The Satraps strike back: For all those who wrote the obituaries of the likes of Mulayum, Mayawati, Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar in the aftermath of the May elections, the results of the by-polls have proved the satraps still have a future in the politics of the country, so what if it is not as bright as it was some time back. Bihar witnessed political churning with Lalu's RJD joining hands with Nitish Kumar's JD(U) and the INC to take on the NDA. The Mega-alliance helped the Manjhi government to survive the test on the floor of the state assembly and then went on to beat the NDA 6-4 in the ten constituencies where elections were held in August this year. In neighboring Uttar Pradesh, the ruling Samajwadi Party performed out of its skin to wrests as many as eight seats from the saffron camp. This in spite of the fact that the BJP tried to cash in on communal tensions that have gripped the western parts of UP over the last year.

The revival of the Congress: After being reduced to mere 44 seats in May which saw many of its stalwarts biting the dust, the results of the by-polls have enthused a bit of life in the grand old party which many believe was in its last leg. The rot in the organizational structure is still there and its present leadership is insipid. But a string of rather unexpected victories over its arch rival is what the doctor prescribed the INC ahead of the state polls scheduled later this year. In the hill state of Uttarakhand where in the incumbent regime was looking shaky after the defection of Satpal Maharaj to the BJP ahead of the May elections, the party won swept won all the three seats. In Rajasthan where it was literally bulldozed by the saffronists, first in 2013 and May 2014, the INC bagged three out of the four seats. Similarly, in Karnataka, Gujarat and MP, it managed to bag constituencies held by the BJP. The Congress needs to make sure that the momentum is taken forward; At the same time, it is important to address issues that are plaguing the party and address them at the earliest.

The fight for the states is heating up: After that stupendous win, there were many who felt that the BJP, riding high on its success, would sweep the four states that will see polls being conducted in the near future. In fact, in all these states, the saffron outfit put up an impressive show - the NDA won 42 of the 48 seats in Maharashtra; seven of its 10 candidates were elected in Haryana; it created history and swept Jammu while painting the national capital in orange. As such, it was expected that the party would not find it difficult to win all of these states. However, the results of the by-polls has put the BJP on the back foot and has shaken the confidence of its supporters. The break-up of the 25 year old BJP-Shiv Sena alliance has made matters worse in the western state. In Haryana too, the Bishnoi led HJC has pulled the plug on its coalition with the BJP. In Delhi, the AAP's string operation has 'exposed' the party's back door efforts to bag power. Besides, in Jammu Kashmir, the PDP seems to be edging the saffron outfit.

For more on the August-September 2014 By-polls, click here (Link)

WILL BIHAR STOP THE MODI MANIA?

AUGUST BY-POLLS WILL BE THE FIRST REAL TEST OF MODI SARKAR

Courtesy: Times of India

It has been nearly 100 days since Narendra Modi led the BJP to a handsome victory in the May 2014 General Elections. The magnitude of the win was such that a lot was expected from the former Gujarat CM after he shifted his base to New Delhi. With 282 seats in the Lower House of the Parliament, many thought that the new regime would pass certain key reforms since it was free from all sort of 'political compulsions' that the previous Central governments were subjected to by their allies. A look back at Modi's innings so far reveals that his report card has been average so far. On one side, the Centre has taken a firm stand on our Foreign Policy. The recent cancellation of Secretary level talks with Pakistan apart, the invitation to the SAARC Head of States at the time of Modi's swearing in and his visits to Bhutan and Nepal indicate a clear thought process in India's dealings with other nations in the neighborhood, something that the UPA regime hopelessly lacked. His interaction with the soldiers posted in Jammu Kashmir recently too has been appreciated. The markets also have responded well. However, one should also remember that the recent spike in incidents of communal clashes coupled with irresponsible statements made by some in the BJP and the Sangh Parivar has raised doubts about the intentions of Modi Sarkar. Prices of certain essential commodities continue to remain high whereas crime against women have increased to rise in recent months. At this juncture, the by-polls in four states will be a good indication to see if the Modi mania that had gripped the nation at least for the first half of the year continues to remain strong or not. Besides, with the recent realignment of political forces in Bihar, the results of these elections will also have a major impact on the strategies that the parties adopt in the next four months wherein at least four states will go to the polls.

With Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav joining hands, the political equations in the state of Bihar have been completely redrawn. The NDA's superlative performance here in May this year where it won 31 out of the 40 seats has raised serious question mark over the political future of the two former CMs of the state. With the JD-U being reduced to mere two seats, many believed that the Kurmi leader's decision to part ways with the BJP was a political blunder and the move would herald his downfall. Similarly, question marks were being raised about Lalu Yadav's relevance in state politics after the RJD could only bag 5 seats in spite of an alliance with the Congress. Aware of the fact that they had to work together to save their political careers, two of Bihar's biggest politicians dissolved their differences spanning nearly two decades and joined forces to combat a resilient saffron outfit which is looking much stronger following the May results. The Congress too decided to lent its support to the cause of thwarting the Modi bandwagon. In fact, this rather 'unholy' alliance has already won a few skirmishes with the NDA. After the resignation of Nitish Kumar as the CM of the state following the JD-U's rout in the Lok Sabha, the three parties worked together to make sure that the new government under the leadership of Jitan Ram Manjhi would survive the test on the floor of the state assembly. Moreover, the allies also fought the elections to the Upper House of the Parliament together and won.

With ten seats namely Narkatiaganj, Rajnagar, Jale, Chapra, Hajipur, Mohiuddinagar, Parbatta, Bhagalpur Banka and Mohania on the line, the Bihar by-polls will for sure be as intensely fought as the General Elections three months ago. In fact, the bearing that the results may have on the political scenario of Bihar is unprecedented, considering the fact that the state is scheduled to go to polls next year. Firstly, having jumped into the electoral fray together, the results will indicate if the masses have given their consent to the JD(U)-RJD combine. If the two new partners do well, they would contemplate continuing the alliance in the next state assembly elections too. On the other hand, a flop show would put serious question mark over the future of this partnership. Actually, several leaders in the JD-U have already hit out at Nitish for sealing the deal with the same party which he had earlier accused of hampering the growth of the state when it was in power. Similarly, the by-polls will also be an acid test for saffron leader Sushil Kumar Modi. With PM Narendra Modi not campaigning in the state, the outcome will also prove if the former Home Minister has the mettle and the support base to lead the saffron outfit in 2015. Finally, the victory of the former Kumar and Yadav, that is if it comes true, could also start a new trend in the country wherein regional rivals open up a united front against the BJP. The RJD supremo had already asked Mayawatiand Mulayum Singh Yadav to join hands to prevent the rise of the 'Fascist forces' in Lucknow, an idea which was considered by the SP chief but flatly rejected by Behenji. A good showing by the 'Mandal forces' may force the Dalit icon to rethink her decision.

Down south, in Karnataka, it is the Congress which is on the back foot. After registering a massive victory in the 2013 elections to the Vidhan Soudha when it swept away all the Opposition, the INC was delivered a rude shock as the BJP, now reinforced with the merger of the KJP and the BSR Congress into it, won nearly twice as many seats as the grand old party. The victory of former CM B S Yeddyurappa from Shimoga and his former cabinet colleague B S Sriramalu from Bellary has necessitated polls in the Shikaripura and Bellary(Rural) respectively. The third seat - Chikkodi-Sadalga was won by the Congress candidate Prakash Hukkeri who too made the cut to the Lok Sabha. The by-elections have become a prestige issue for CM Siddaramaih who has campaigned extensively in the three seats after there were rumors of discontent against him within the party. Though he may enjoy the complete faith of president Sonia Gandhi, he would prefer to silence his critics within the Congress ranks. With the Deve Gowda led JD-S refusing to field any candidates citing paucity of funds, the fight is between the two major national parties. Having been made the party's national vice president few days ago, it remains to be seen if the former KJP chief could pass on the electoral baton to his son B S Raghavendra who is contesting the polls as a BJP candidate. Likewise, the saffron nominee from Bellary is Sriramalu aide Obalesh. Besides the incumbent CM, the by-polls are also important for the two saffron leaders.

Like Siddaramaih, Punjab CM Parkash Singh Badal too is jittery ahead of the by-elections to the seats of Talwandi-Salboo and Patiala. If the results of the General Elections are anything to go by, the Akalis are certainly going to have a tough time in winning the two seats. If there was one party in the NDA which will be disappointed after the May 16 results, it has to be the SAD. Strong anti-incumbency against the Punjab government was the reason that the NDA could only win six of the 13 parliamentary seats from the north-western state. In fact, after the defeat of the Finance minister Arun Jaitley from Amritsar, Akali leader Naresh Gujral was frank enough to admit that the DDCA chief was paying the price for the failure of the incumbent regime. Meanwhile, the resignation of former CM Captain Amarinder Singh from the Patiala constituency following his victory over Jaitley and the defection of Talwandi-Sabo MLA Jeet Mohinder Singh to the SAD camp has resulted in the by-polls for the two constituencies. For both, the Badals as well as the Congress, a victory will be more of a morale booster since the incumbent regime has the necessary numbers on its side. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) which surprised everyone by bagging four parliamentary seats here will be the one to watch out for. It remains to be seen if the recent turmoil within the AAP will harm its chances in the only state where it is presently strong.

Lastly, elections will also be held for three seats - Vijayraghavgarh, Bahoriband and Agar in Madhya Pradesh. After sweeping the state late last year and winning a large majority of seats in the parliamentary polls, the saffron outfit is expected to bag all three seats. However, the multi-crore entrance scam came in the limelight has become a major embarrassment for MP CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan and his party. After filing a defamation case against Congress spokesperson K K Mishra is looking to extract revenge on the INC which is using this as an issue to make a comeback. And what better way to do this than winning these by-polls. As if the allegations from the Opposition benches were not enough, Union Minister and Shivraj's rival within the saffron camp - Uma Bharati too had demanded a probe into the entire fiasco. All these things apart, the BJP is expected to win all of these constituencies like it did in the last state elections. Meanwhile, the results of the by-elections in MP and other states will be out on 25^th August.

For more on the August-September 2014 By-polls, click here (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Times of India
Original: Times of India - Regrouped Lalu, Nitish take on BJP in Bihar bypoll today (Link)

BIHAR & LOK SABHA 2014

NDA vs UPA vs THIRD FRONT

The 2014 General Elections in Bihar in many ways, personifies the whole national picture. Many believe that there are three broad formations that are capable of forming the next government in the country. The ruling UPA regime led by the Congress, having ruled the country for two consecutive terms, is the first contender for power. The BJP led NDA is hoping to make a strong comeback under the leadership of a combative Narendra Modi. And then there is the 'Third Front', a confederation of regional satraps keen to keep the tow national parties out of power (Link). While my views on this are known, there are still a few, who buy this idea. Now, coming back to Bihar, you can see that it is one of the few states where all of these three coalitions are strong. The Congress and Lalu Yadav's RJD have renewed their friendship which had been shattered prior to the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. After a bitter, public divorce with Nitish, the BJP has managed to get Paswan's LJP and RLSP on their side. Meanwhile, the incumbent CM has been one of the torch bearers of the much-hyped 'Federal Front'. With 40 seats on the line, there is no doubt that the Bihar polls will be one of the most closely fought states in 2014.

ISSUES

(1) The Bihar Growth Model: Muck like Modi, Nitish Kumar never misses any opportunity to talk about his 'Bihar Model' of development. There is no doubt that the state has made tremendous progress in the last nine years under the incumbent CM. The law and order situation which had worsened when the RJD was in power has improved, giving a fillip to industrial growth. The poverty rate has reduced while the literacy figures has gone northward. The issue is going to be the plank on which the JD-U will fight the elections.

(2) Anti-incumbency: After nearly a decade in office, there is no doubt that the JD-U is facing a strong anti-incumbency wave. At many of his rallies and road shows, the Bihar CM has been greeted with black flags and angry demonstrators. Much like the regime in the state, the Congress-led UPA too is facing the heat. The grand old party has failed miserably in tackling corruption and the economy too has weakened over the years. Having pulled out of the Bihar government, the BJP is hopeful that incumbency will not be an issue for it.

(3) The Clash of Personalities: In many ways, the upcoming General Elections is going to be a 'Battle Royale' between three big personalities in Indian politics. On one hand it is the Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who has made his national ambitions pretty clear over the last few weeks. The RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav is a wounded tiger who is perhaps fighting the most crucial polls in his political career. And then there Narendra Modi. Having been kept out of Bihar earlier due to opposition from the Nitish camp, the Gujarat CM has a point to prove. If reports are to be believed, there is a lot of support for BJP's PM nominee on the ground.

(4) Special Status: Nitish Kumar has raised the demand for 'Special Status' for Bihar on many platforms. The JD-U believes that the special economic package will be help solve all the problems that plague the state. In fact,  has also said that he will ally with anybody who grants this key demand of this.

(5) Vote Bank Politics: The RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav is the master of caste and religion based politics. For years, he depended on the Muslim-Yadav combine to win elections. However, in the last decade, his vote base has eroded considerably. Lalu is hopeful that the anti-incumbency will help him woo back the Yadavs whereas the 'fear' of Modi will lead to consolidation of the Muslims in favor of the UPA. Nitish Kumar is fighting hard to retain the OBC and the EBC (Extremely Backward Caste) votes. One of the reasons for his ugly split with the BJP was to retain the minority votes. Will the gamble pay off? The Upper Caste has stood by the BJP for long. The LJP will help it to get a chunk of the Dalit too behind the NDA.

CONTENDERS

(1) Janata Dal - United (JD-U): After severing ties with the BJP on the candidature of Modi as the PM nominee of the NDA, nothing seems to be going in the favor of Nitish Kumar. While Paswan has joined hands with the BJP, the Congress preferred Lalu over him. While on one hand he is facing anti-incumbency on the ground, several of his close aides including N K Singh and Sabir Ali have deserted him. It is pretty clear that the Bihar CM has national dreams. However for that to happen, the JD-U has to win at least 20 seats. In my opinion, that is impossible. Although it is in alliance with the CPI, there is no doubt that Nitish is facing tough competition from the NDA as well as the UPA. Amongst the candidates declared so far are party president Sharad Yadav (Madhepur), film-maker Prakash Jha (West Champaram) and industrialist Anil Kumar Sharma (Jehanabad).

(2) The NDA: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is going all out in Bihar with its leader Narendra Modi attending several rallies here. I believe that there are two reasons for this. First of course, the saffron outfit wants to do well in the state that elects 40 sends to the Parliament. Secondly, after the JD-U broke off its 17 year old friendship with the NDA, Bihar has become a 'prestige issue' for the party. The saffron camp is banking on its two Modis to get it the votes. Moreover, the party has managed to get two new allies - Paswan's LJP and Kushwaha's RLSP on its side. As per the arrangement with its new-found partners, the saffron outfit will contest 30 seats here. Some high profile names from the BJP who have been given tickets include Rajiv Pratap Rudy (Saran), Shahnawaz Hussain (Bhagalpur) and Kriti Azad (Darbhanga).

Who would have expected, say two months ago that Ramvilas Paswan - the political 'Joker' of state politics would join hands with the BJP. After drawing a blank in the 2009 polls and witnessing a massive erosion in its vote base across Bihar, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) now wants to piggy-bank on the NaMo wave to stay relevant. For the BJP, the re-entry of Paswan into the NDA is highly 'symbolic'. Considering that the LJP chief was the first constituent of the Vajpayee cabinet to withdraw support following the 2002 riots, the move is a sort of endorsement of the fact that parties are ready to forget the past and work with the saffron brigade. Secondly, by wooing Paswan away from both, the JD-U and the INC-RJD combine, the BJP has made a strong statement. The alliance is likely to help the NDA get a fair share of the Dalit votes in Bihar. Amongst the party's candidates are Ramvilas Paswan (Hajipur), his brother Ramachandra Paswan (Samastipura) and son Chirag (Jamui).

The third member of the BJP led coalition in the state is the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP). Formed by OBC leader and former Rajya Sabha MP Upendra Kushwaha in 2013 following his differences with Nitish, the party will contest three seats. The RLSP chief has jumped into the fray from Karkat.

(3) The UPA: Whether you like it or not, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) looks to be on a comeback trail. After being humiliated, first in 2009 Lok Sabha and then in the 2010 state elections, a brief jail term for his involvement in the Fodder Scam, the ‘betrayal’ of Paswan and most importantly, the break-up of the JD(U)-BJP alliance, the former Bihar strongman Lalu Prasad Yadav is aiming to take his tally beyond the 2 digit mark. A spark of the Lalu of yesteryears was visible when he marched to the house of the Speaker of the state assembly with 9 of his 13 'rebel MLAs' in a rickshaw, accusing him of trying to protect the JD-U regime by splitting the RJD. While Yadav may have been debarred from contesting the polls following a court verdict, the party has given tickets to his wife Rabri Devi (Saran), daughter Misa (Patliputra), controversial politician Mohammad Shahbuddin’s wife Hina Shabab (Siwan) and former ministers like Raghuvansh Prasad Yadav (Vaishali) and Mohammad Taslimuddin (Araria). Unhappy after being denied the Patliputra seat, Lalu’s close aide Ram Kripal Yadav has joined the BJP and will contest from here against Misa.

While the Congress has been a fringe player in Bihar for more than two decades, it had an important decision to make ahead of the General Elections - whether to ally with the 'secular' JD-U or rekindle its romance with Lalu. While it chose to join hands with the RJD, this decision could end up impacting the results of at least 5 to 10 seats in the state. Besides Lok Sabha Speaker Meena Kumari (Sasaram), the party has fielded former IPS officer and Kerala governor Nikhil Kumar from Aurangabad.

The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) will fight one seat as a part of the UPA.

PAST PERFORMANCES

In 2004, when the Congress fought the elections in association with Paswan and Lalu Prasad, the UPA swept the state, winning over 70 percent of the parliamentary seats. The NDA was finished with a tally of just 11. However, in the state polls that were fought a year later, the LJP played a spoiler as he refused to ally with the INC and the RJD. As the electorate delivered a fractured mandate, the BJP-JD(U) coalition performed slightly better than the INC-RJD combine. With Paswan refusing to join either of the two fronts, Bihar went for the polls, for the second time later that year. This time though, there was a clear winner. The NDA bagged an impressive 143 seats; Nitish Kumar was sworn in as the Chief Minister. In 2009, the ruling combine bagged 32 of the total 40 seats. The Congress which fought the polls alone after being snubbed by Lalu won 2 seats. Meanwhile, the RJD was reduced to 4 whereas Paswan was not able to even open his account. In the following year, the JD-U and the BJP carried on their good performance, winning an unprecedented landslide victory. Their tally exceeded 200 seats. The RJD, the INC and the LJP were virtually wiped off.

Political Party	2010 SE	2009 LE	Dec. 2005 SE	Feb. 2005 SE	2004 LE
Janata Dal - United (JD-U)	115	20	88	55	6
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	91	12	55	37	5
Lok Janshakti Party (LJP)	3	-	10	29	4
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)	22	4	54	75	22
Congress (INC)	4	2	9	10	3
Others	8	2	27	37	-

(1) Bihar elects 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha.
(2) The state has 243 seats in the Legislative assembly.

MY PREDICTIONS

The Modi wave is strong in Bihar and the alliance with Paswan's LJP and RLSP is going to further help the BJP. I expect the NDA to finish with a tally of over 20 seats. The RJD is on a comeback and the pre-poll accord with the Congress will help the UPA to win up to 12 seats. All thanks to anti-incumbency and an ugly split with the BJP, the JD(U) will be lucky to even cross the 2 digit mark.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	NDA (BJP + LJP + RLSP)	21-25
2	UPA (INC + RJD)	9-13
3	JD-U	5-9
4	Others	1-2

WATCH OUT

(1) The future of the Bihari Babus: The 2014 General Elections will in many ways decide the future of three of the tallest leaders in the state.

The incumbent CM will be watching the elections closely. Having severed the 17 year old ties with the BJP, Nitish Kumar looks extremely weak. The anti-incumbency factor is strong and the Bihar growth story is crumbling. Since the state will go for polls next year, there is no doubt that the big polls will certainly have an impact on them. If the JD-U performs badly, at least that is what I have predicted, then Nitish will find it almost impossible to claim a hat trick.

While Nitish is on a sticky wicket, the polls of 2014 could well seal the fate of Lalu Prasad Yadav and his party, the RJD. Having been decimated, election after election, both in the state and Centre and having been indicted by the courts in the Fodder scam, the former CM is fighting for political relevance. For a politician like Lalu who relied on caste-based politics, rather than development for winning elections, the clock seems to be ticking. If the RJD supremo fails to make an impact in 2014, he will be finished. However, if Lalu can win over 10 seats, his party will emerge stronger in 2014.

The big elections could be a knock out punch for Ram Vilas Paswan and his LJP. Having draw a blank in 2009 and finishing with a meager tally of 3 seats in the last state assembly polls, Paswan has to at least win one seat. The former Railway Minister has taken a big gamble by returning back to the NDA. Will it pay-off? We need to wait till the counting for this.

(2) Switching Loyalties: While the BJP-LJP and INC-RJD alliances have been announced, the scenario could be very different after the results are announced. If the UPA manages to be the largest group post elections, it will not take much for the LJP to join hands with the Congress. Also, in that scenario, the JD-U may extend a helping hand, provided Lalu is out of the picture. If the NDA ends up in pole position, one cannot rule out the fact that JD-U might rejoin the NDA, especially if the saffronists are ready to grant 'Special Status' to Bihar. In fact, except for BJP-Congress or BJP-RJD, all other permutations and combinations can be expected.

(3) The Sons and Daughters: The General Elections will also see the emergence of the second generation of leaders in Bihar from well-established political families. The RJD has given a ticket to Misa Yadav, the eldest daughter of the party supremo from Patliputra. Besides, his young son and political successor Tejaswi Yadav has given up his cricketing career to help his dad do well. Like the younger Yadav, Chirag Paswan has bid adieu to his Bollywood dreams to campaign for his party. He was said to be instrumental in the LJP's alliance with the BJP. 

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

WHY THE THIRD FRONT IS A FAILURE?

FIVE REASONS WHY THE FEDERAL FRONT WILL NOT BE A SUCCESS

With seven regional parties joining hands with the Left Front earlier this week, it seems like the much hyped 'Third Front', a term which gains momentum months prior to General Elections and then fizzles out, is on the cards. The eleven constituents who have around 90 MPs in the Lok Sabha have formed a united block and have planned to oppose any bill brought in by the government since it could electorally benefit the Congress. In the coming days, it is expected that the leaders of the Front which at present includes the Janata Dal (United), the Samajawadi Party, the Biju Janata Dal, the Janata Dal (Secular), the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), the All India Anna Daravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Asom Gana Parishad, apart from the four parties of the Left Block will hold talks to finalize the seat sharing arrangements. A non-BJP, non-Congress government at the Centre has been the ultimate dream of the federalists. However, the big question is whether it is a viable option. The increase in the vote share of the regional outfits and the emergence of strong state satraps has made them extremely important in national politics. Meanwhile, the anti-incumbency is hurting the Congress whereas the polarization of votes could affect the BJP's prospects after it named Narendra Modi as its PM nominee. As such, some believe that 2014 could see witness a Federal Front heading the regime in New Delhi. In fact, in a bid to prevent the NDA from coming to power, the UPA may offer such an alliance consisting of regional players outside support. However, I believe that the Third Front is bound to fail. Firstly, it will need at least 120 plus seats to be a force to reckon with and considering the present situation of its constituents, it seems to be an uphill task. In fact even if it gets 120 seats and forms a minority government with the outside support of the Congress, it is unlikely to last over two years. And here are the five reasons why I think so...

(1) Present Situation: As I have mentioned earlier, the Third Front has to get over 120 seats to even dream of forming the next government. However, in the present situation, it is expected that most of the regional parties who met this week are going to drop seats. Nitish Kumar, the most vocal leader of the new formation has to battle anti-incumbency, a resurgent BJP and the Congress-RJD-LJP alliance this time around. Having walked out of the NDA over the leadership issue, the JD(U) is likely to end with a tally of 10-15 seats only. In neighboring Uttar Pradesh, the Muslims who have been a prominent vote bank of the Samajwadi Party may desert it following the inability of the Akhilesh government to prevent the Muzaffarnagar riots. Meanwhile, the BJP and the BSP are likely to spoil the prospects of Mulayum Singh Yadav in the upcoming polls. The Left Front could be heading towards its worst showing in many years. Having stormed the Left bastion of Bengal in 2011, Mamata Bannerjee is all set to take the lion's share of seats in the eastern state. In Kerala too, the LDF is said to be extremely weak. Down south, the Gowdas have never been able to increase their clout outside the Mandya region of Karnataka. Besides the father son duo of Deve Gowda and Kumarswamy, they do not have any strong leaders who can win them seats. The AGP and the JVM (P) can at max, win 10 and 3 seats in Assam and Jharkhand respectively. On the contrary, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK and Naven Patnaik's BJD are expected to put on a good show. Considering the above arguments, I think the Third Front will finish with a combined tally of 80 - 110 seats, falling short of the 120 mark. On the other hand, if the NDA or the UPA manage to cross the 200 mark on their own, some parties in the confederation may not be averse to joining either of them. Amma is known to be close to Modi whereas Patnaik and AGP were a part of the BJP led alliance earlier. Similarly, the SP and the JD(S) have bailed out the INC many times in the past in the Parliament.

(2) The ideology: To get votes, the Third Front will have to project an ideology to the people. This is exactly what the coalition lacks as of now. The only reason for these parties who come from diverse backgrounds, who cater to different vote banks and who have varied 'founding principles' to come together has been to the aim of forming a non-BJP, non-Congress regime in New Delhi. In fact, this has been the stand of many regional players since decades. Earlier, with many of these fighting the INC in their back ground, anti-Congressism was the glue that kept them together. Over the years, with the 'Secularism' debate dominating the political scene, there has been a slight change here with anti-BJP sentiments taking over, especially after the nomination of Modi as NDA's Prime Ministerial candidate. However, the point to note here is whether the masses will vote for the regional players only to keep the mainstream national parties at bay? Also, the Federal alliance has never spoken about its 'united' vision for the country, the economic policies that it plans to implement once in power and its views on the nation's foreign affairs, social issue and key reforms are unclear. Besides, another challenge for them is whether the individual parties will ever rise above regional lines. One important thing is that each of the member of this alliance has a vote bank to protect. With every outfit trying to safeguard its own political interests will the Front be ever able to deliver on vital issues. My answer to this question is a No. Probably, the biggest problem will come while presenting the annual budget as every leader will want to get the maximum funds for his or her state.

(3) An incomplete front: Another head ache for the federal alliance is that in several key states, it has virtually no presence. Of course, in the coming days I expect several smaller parties like the People's Party of Punjab, either the National Conference or People's Democratic Party in Jammu & Kashmir and some other outfits in the North-East to join this confederation. Still, this does not solve the issue. In Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Himachal and Uttarkhand, the coalition has no leader who can win them seats. In Andhra, where there are as many as three regional parties, namely the YSR Congress, the Telugu Desum Party and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, none of these have indicated their willingness to join hands with federal front. Same is the situation in Maharashtra. Though the ties between the NCP and the Congress have been strained, they continue to share power. On the other hand, the BJP has already brought together several parties in its Mahayuti. Another issue facing the new front is that most of these regional players, except for Naveen Patnaik has a strong traditional regional rival and getting them on board is an impossible task. With Mulayum in the group, there is no way that Mayawati is going to give her support to the coalition; DMK and the AIADMK do not see eye to eye; Nitish will never allow bete noire Lalu Yadav to be a member of the alliance where Mamata's TMC can never work with the Left parties. With Didi and Behenji out of the equation, there is no way that the Third Front will get the numbers to form the next government.

(4) Leadership: Lets suppose that the Third Front is all set to form the government, either on its own or with outside support of the Congress. The question staring at the alliance will be who will head the government? All this while, the Third Front members have tried to evade this issue by claiming that the decision on who will be their PM choice will be taken after the polls. However, with nearly half a dozen leaders harboring ambitions for the top job, selecting one person will be extremely difficult. In a party meeting, the AIADMK cadre have proposed Jayalalithaa's name for the post. Knowing how things function in the Dravidian parties, it is for sure that this announcement too has the matriarch's blessings. It is a well known fact that Mulayum Singh Yadav too wants to become the Prime Minister. In fact, when he asked his son Akhilesh to become the CM of Uttar Pradesh after the SP dislodged the BSP from power, it was being speculated that he was planning to move to the national scene. Bihar CM Nitish Kumar too is seen as a probable PM candidate. While he had denied any such ambitions in the past, his repeated calls for the formation of the Third Front and his excessive campaigning in the last few months tell a different story. Nitish's party colleague Sharad Yadav is the dark horse. His experience as the convener of the NDA may come in handy while keeping the different allies happy. And how can one forget the humble farmer H D Deve Gowda. A former PM, he like Sharad Yadav too can be a please-all candidate. However, what goes against him is that the JD(S) may fail to win over 5 seats. Probably, the best amongst the pack, at least in my opinion is Orissa CM Naveen Patnaik. Having governed his state fairly well for three consecutive terms, he has the experience to handle the PM's post.

(5) Bitter experiences of the past: They say 'History repeats itself'. The four federal governments that were formed in the 1990s are testimony to the fact that such an experiment can never be sustainable and will only result in political instability. In 1989, Vishwananth Pratap Singh led the first such government at the Centre which barely lasted for an year. The reason for the fall of this regime was that Chandra Shekar led faction broke away, a clear indication that such formations never work. Chandra Shekar who succeeded Singh fared even badly, staying in power only for 223 days after the Congress withdrew its support, accusing him of spying on their leader Rajiv Gandhi. The third experiment of a regional alliance was in 1996 when Deve Gowda headed the United Front government. Prior to the government formation, there were several uneasy meetings to decide the new PM. It is widely believed that Lalu Yadav prevented Mulayum from being the PM to make sure that he does not emerge as the biggest Yadav leader in the country. Less than an year later, his regime fell and I K Gujral occupied the highest executive post in the country. There is one important event that took place while Gujral was at the helm of affairs which is worth reading. It is relevant because such situations may arise in case of a Third Front government comes to power in 2014. As PM, Gujral tried his best to shield Lalu Yadav as the CBI was investigating the multi-crore Fodder scam. You see the regional parties have a narrow minded approach. They fail to see what is good for the country as a whole, rather focusing on their states. Such an approach is not ideal for leading a nation as diverse as ours. Though I firmly believe that smaller outfits are one of the greatest features of our democracy, I think that giving the reins of the Central government to them is like allowing a 15 year old drive a car. While the teenager may do a decent job, there are high chances that he may crash his vehicle. At the same time I do not say that the two national parties or rather the coalitions that they are heading - the UPA and the NDA are the best choice. However if I have to choose amongst the three 'Devils', I will definitely chose them any day over the Third Front.