ONE BIG, HAPPY FAMILY?

WILL THE REGIONAL BRIGADE SURVIVE

Janata Parivar 

Could this be 'Avengers' moment of Indian politics? Much like the movie series wherein several superheroes from the Marvel Comic world come together with the noble aim of saving the world from evil forces, last week, heads of six regional parties who are no less than 'superheroes' in the eyes of their followers joined hands to resurrect the erstwhile Janata Parivar, decades after the party splintered into numerous factions on account of personal rivalry, jealousy and ego hassles between its leadership. Of course, while they may claim that the reason for their coming together is to stop the rise of the 'Fascist' forces (read BJP), there is no doubt that the satraps, who played a key role in the formation of successive regimes in the Coalition Era are fighting for their political survival after being jolted in the General Elections 2014 when the Modi wave broke the traditional barriers of caste and region, something that these leaders and their parties usually thrive upon.

Whatever may be the reason for this realignment of political forces on the political spectrum, what is certain is that merger of the six outfits - the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Janata Dal - United (JD-U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Janata Dal - Secular (JD-S), the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Samajwadi Janata Party (SJP) is all set to have major implications in the years to come, provided these factions stay together which in itself is going to be an herculean task. Though the modalities are being worked upon by a six member committee, former Uttar Pradesh CM and SP supremo Mulayum Singh Yadav has been named as the chief of the Janata Party in its new avtaar.

From the outside, the merger might not sound as 'such a big deal'. After all, the six parties together have 15 MPs in the Lower House of the Parliament and are in no position to stall reforms or counter the government that has a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha. Most of these old warhorses are in the twilight of their political careers with a majority of them being a mere shadow of what they were in their heyday. Besides, the three regional players who withstood the Modi juggernaut namely Jayalalithaa of the AIADMK, Mamata Bannerjee of the TMC and Navin Patnaik of the BJD have kept a safe distance from this new political entity. Thus the influence of the new look Janata Parivar is restricted to UP and Bihar apart from marginal presence in Haryana and Karnataka.

While the regional satraps may still be licking the wounds that they suffered in the May 2014 polls, writing off the new front would be a foolish decision. With the Modi government yet to fulfill most of the promises it made to the public during the course of the electoral campaign, the merger could help consolidate the anti-Modi or anti-BJP vote bank. Considering that many of these leaders including Mulayum Singh, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav have a solid Dalit - Muslim support base, the new front is all set to give tough electoral challenge to a new resurgent BJP ahead of the prestigious Bihar polls which is scheduled later this year. In fact, even in the by-polls held in Bihar and UP last year, the regional parties put up a formidable show against the saffron camp. Buoyed by these results and keen to regain lost ground, the merger will help strengthen the Opposition benches which looks scattered for the time being. Additionally, the party now has 30 MPs in the Rajya Sabha which is nearly half the number that the NDA has as of now, making it a force to reckon with in the Upper House.

The success of the Janata Parivar and its future will largely depend on the results of the Bihar Polls. A victory for the front will be a mega boost for the leadership and will completely stop the Modi bandwagon which received a jolt in the Delhi elections. In that scenario, more regional players would be keen in joining hands with the party either by the way of merger or alliance. The Congress and the Left parties who too are in no situation to take on the BJP at present would be interested in dealing with the Mualyum led party. On the other hand, a defeat at the hands of the BJP though could well bring down the curtains on the Parivar, months after it was formed.

The real threat for the JP is from within; will the Yadavs, the Kumars and the Chautalas bury their bitter past and move on, rather move on as a team? Can Mulayum whose hopes of becoming the PM were dashed by Lalu, ever be able to trust the latter? Can Lalu and Nitish ever be friends? After all, they would call each other all sorts of names till about an year ago, isn't it? Though we do not have any concrete answers to any of questions, what we can be sure of is that the revival of the Janata Parivar has only made Indian politics in general and Bihar polls in particular more interesting.

ANALYZING THE BY-ELECTIONS

FOUR LESSONS THAT THE BY-POLLS TEACH US

Wow! Who could have predicted this? Less than four months after that landslide victory in favor of the BJP, not many of us would have thought that the results of the by-polls could be so different. As if the 3-0 rout at the hands of the Congress in Uttarakhand was not enough, the defeat in Bihar and the decimation in Uttar Pradesh have put a question mark over the perception that the BJP would make inroads into hitherto unknown lands, riding on Modi Mania. At the same time, the regional players, most of which were obliterated in the General Elections put up a good show, laying to rest 'fears' that the country was heading towards a two-party rule. Besides, the Congress too showed signs of improvement; the 120 odd year old party does have a future in our democracy. Analyzing the results from 14 states that have seen snap polls, here the four key takeaways from the August-September 2014 by-polls.

May 2014 was a victory for Modi, not for the BJP: I remember this one episode during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls when former BJP president Rajnath Singh had to change one of his tweets from 'Abki bar BJP Sarkar' to 'Abki bar Modi Sarkar'. Psephologists and political observers have for months debated whether the magical numbers that the saffron camp got in the General Elections was an endorsement of Modi or a vote for his party or a combination of both. I believe that the by-polls has settled this debate. Nothing else can explain why the BJP fared so badly in the by-elections in spite of that superlative performance it registered less than 150 days ago. There is no doubt that even without Modi the NDA would finish as the largest alliance after the big polls; however, there was no way that it could cross the 200 mark, forget 342. Modi's excellent oratory skills, his charisma an his portrayal as a 'pro-development' leader helped his party move from the Opposition benches to the Treasury benches in the Parliament. Thus the saffron camp was right in breaking ties with Nitish and suppressing the anti-Moi camp lead by Advani.

The Satraps strike back: For all those who wrote the obituaries of the likes of Mulayum, Mayawati, Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar in the aftermath of the May elections, the results of the by-polls have proved the satraps still have a future in the politics of the country, so what if it is not as bright as it was some time back. Bihar witnessed political churning with Lalu's RJD joining hands with Nitish Kumar's JD(U) and the INC to take on the NDA. The Mega-alliance helped the Manjhi government to survive the test on the floor of the state assembly and then went on to beat the NDA 6-4 in the ten constituencies where elections were held in August this year. In neighboring Uttar Pradesh, the ruling Samajwadi Party performed out of its skin to wrests as many as eight seats from the saffron camp. This in spite of the fact that the BJP tried to cash in on communal tensions that have gripped the western parts of UP over the last year.

The revival of the Congress: After being reduced to mere 44 seats in May which saw many of its stalwarts biting the dust, the results of the by-polls have enthused a bit of life in the grand old party which many believe was in its last leg. The rot in the organizational structure is still there and its present leadership is insipid. But a string of rather unexpected victories over its arch rival is what the doctor prescribed the INC ahead of the state polls scheduled later this year. In the hill state of Uttarakhand where in the incumbent regime was looking shaky after the defection of Satpal Maharaj to the BJP ahead of the May elections, the party won swept won all the three seats. In Rajasthan where it was literally bulldozed by the saffronists, first in 2013 and May 2014, the INC bagged three out of the four seats. Similarly, in Karnataka, Gujarat and MP, it managed to bag constituencies held by the BJP. The Congress needs to make sure that the momentum is taken forward; At the same time, it is important to address issues that are plaguing the party and address them at the earliest.

The fight for the states is heating up: After that stupendous win, there were many who felt that the BJP, riding high on its success, would sweep the four states that will see polls being conducted in the near future. In fact, in all these states, the saffron outfit put up an impressive show - the NDA won 42 of the 48 seats in Maharashtra; seven of its 10 candidates were elected in Haryana; it created history and swept Jammu while painting the national capital in orange. As such, it was expected that the party would not find it difficult to win all of these states. However, the results of the by-polls has put the BJP on the back foot and has shaken the confidence of its supporters. The break-up of the 25 year old BJP-Shiv Sena alliance has made matters worse in the western state. In Haryana too, the Bishnoi led HJC has pulled the plug on its coalition with the BJP. In Delhi, the AAP's string operation has 'exposed' the party's back door efforts to bag power. Besides, in Jammu Kashmir, the PDP seems to be edging the saffron outfit.

For more on the August-September 2014 By-polls, click here (Link)

WHY THE THIRD FRONT IS A FAILURE?

FIVE REASONS WHY THE FEDERAL FRONT WILL NOT BE A SUCCESS

With seven regional parties joining hands with the Left Front earlier this week, it seems like the much hyped 'Third Front', a term which gains momentum months prior to General Elections and then fizzles out, is on the cards. The eleven constituents who have around 90 MPs in the Lok Sabha have formed a united block and have planned to oppose any bill brought in by the government since it could electorally benefit the Congress. In the coming days, it is expected that the leaders of the Front which at present includes the Janata Dal (United), the Samajawadi Party, the Biju Janata Dal, the Janata Dal (Secular), the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), the All India Anna Daravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Asom Gana Parishad, apart from the four parties of the Left Block will hold talks to finalize the seat sharing arrangements. A non-BJP, non-Congress government at the Centre has been the ultimate dream of the federalists. However, the big question is whether it is a viable option. The increase in the vote share of the regional outfits and the emergence of strong state satraps has made them extremely important in national politics. Meanwhile, the anti-incumbency is hurting the Congress whereas the polarization of votes could affect the BJP's prospects after it named Narendra Modi as its PM nominee. As such, some believe that 2014 could see witness a Federal Front heading the regime in New Delhi. In fact, in a bid to prevent the NDA from coming to power, the UPA may offer such an alliance consisting of regional players outside support. However, I believe that the Third Front is bound to fail. Firstly, it will need at least 120 plus seats to be a force to reckon with and considering the present situation of its constituents, it seems to be an uphill task. In fact even if it gets 120 seats and forms a minority government with the outside support of the Congress, it is unlikely to last over two years. And here are the five reasons why I think so...

(1) Present Situation: As I have mentioned earlier, the Third Front has to get over 120 seats to even dream of forming the next government. However, in the present situation, it is expected that most of the regional parties who met this week are going to drop seats. Nitish Kumar, the most vocal leader of the new formation has to battle anti-incumbency, a resurgent BJP and the Congress-RJD-LJP alliance this time around. Having walked out of the NDA over the leadership issue, the JD(U) is likely to end with a tally of 10-15 seats only. In neighboring Uttar Pradesh, the Muslims who have been a prominent vote bank of the Samajwadi Party may desert it following the inability of the Akhilesh government to prevent the Muzaffarnagar riots. Meanwhile, the BJP and the BSP are likely to spoil the prospects of Mulayum Singh Yadav in the upcoming polls. The Left Front could be heading towards its worst showing in many years. Having stormed the Left bastion of Bengal in 2011, Mamata Bannerjee is all set to take the lion's share of seats in the eastern state. In Kerala too, the LDF is said to be extremely weak. Down south, the Gowdas have never been able to increase their clout outside the Mandya region of Karnataka. Besides the father son duo of Deve Gowda and Kumarswamy, they do not have any strong leaders who can win them seats. The AGP and the JVM (P) can at max, win 10 and 3 seats in Assam and Jharkhand respectively. On the contrary, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK and Naven Patnaik's BJD are expected to put on a good show. Considering the above arguments, I think the Third Front will finish with a combined tally of 80 - 110 seats, falling short of the 120 mark. On the other hand, if the NDA or the UPA manage to cross the 200 mark on their own, some parties in the confederation may not be averse to joining either of them. Amma is known to be close to Modi whereas Patnaik and AGP were a part of the BJP led alliance earlier. Similarly, the SP and the JD(S) have bailed out the INC many times in the past in the Parliament.

(2) The ideology: To get votes, the Third Front will have to project an ideology to the people. This is exactly what the coalition lacks as of now. The only reason for these parties who come from diverse backgrounds, who cater to different vote banks and who have varied 'founding principles' to come together has been to the aim of forming a non-BJP, non-Congress regime in New Delhi. In fact, this has been the stand of many regional players since decades. Earlier, with many of these fighting the INC in their back ground, anti-Congressism was the glue that kept them together. Over the years, with the 'Secularism' debate dominating the political scene, there has been a slight change here with anti-BJP sentiments taking over, especially after the nomination of Modi as NDA's Prime Ministerial candidate. However, the point to note here is whether the masses will vote for the regional players only to keep the mainstream national parties at bay? Also, the Federal alliance has never spoken about its 'united' vision for the country, the economic policies that it plans to implement once in power and its views on the nation's foreign affairs, social issue and key reforms are unclear. Besides, another challenge for them is whether the individual parties will ever rise above regional lines. One important thing is that each of the member of this alliance has a vote bank to protect. With every outfit trying to safeguard its own political interests will the Front be ever able to deliver on vital issues. My answer to this question is a No. Probably, the biggest problem will come while presenting the annual budget as every leader will want to get the maximum funds for his or her state.

(3) An incomplete front: Another head ache for the federal alliance is that in several key states, it has virtually no presence. Of course, in the coming days I expect several smaller parties like the People's Party of Punjab, either the National Conference or People's Democratic Party in Jammu & Kashmir and some other outfits in the North-East to join this confederation. Still, this does not solve the issue. In Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Himachal and Uttarkhand, the coalition has no leader who can win them seats. In Andhra, where there are as many as three regional parties, namely the YSR Congress, the Telugu Desum Party and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, none of these have indicated their willingness to join hands with federal front. Same is the situation in Maharashtra. Though the ties between the NCP and the Congress have been strained, they continue to share power. On the other hand, the BJP has already brought together several parties in its Mahayuti. Another issue facing the new front is that most of these regional players, except for Naveen Patnaik has a strong traditional regional rival and getting them on board is an impossible task. With Mulayum in the group, there is no way that Mayawati is going to give her support to the coalition; DMK and the AIADMK do not see eye to eye; Nitish will never allow bete noire Lalu Yadav to be a member of the alliance where Mamata's TMC can never work with the Left parties. With Didi and Behenji out of the equation, there is no way that the Third Front will get the numbers to form the next government.

(4) Leadership: Lets suppose that the Third Front is all set to form the government, either on its own or with outside support of the Congress. The question staring at the alliance will be who will head the government? All this while, the Third Front members have tried to evade this issue by claiming that the decision on who will be their PM choice will be taken after the polls. However, with nearly half a dozen leaders harboring ambitions for the top job, selecting one person will be extremely difficult. In a party meeting, the AIADMK cadre have proposed Jayalalithaa's name for the post. Knowing how things function in the Dravidian parties, it is for sure that this announcement too has the matriarch's blessings. It is a well known fact that Mulayum Singh Yadav too wants to become the Prime Minister. In fact, when he asked his son Akhilesh to become the CM of Uttar Pradesh after the SP dislodged the BSP from power, it was being speculated that he was planning to move to the national scene. Bihar CM Nitish Kumar too is seen as a probable PM candidate. While he had denied any such ambitions in the past, his repeated calls for the formation of the Third Front and his excessive campaigning in the last few months tell a different story. Nitish's party colleague Sharad Yadav is the dark horse. His experience as the convener of the NDA may come in handy while keeping the different allies happy. And how can one forget the humble farmer H D Deve Gowda. A former PM, he like Sharad Yadav too can be a please-all candidate. However, what goes against him is that the JD(S) may fail to win over 5 seats. Probably, the best amongst the pack, at least in my opinion is Orissa CM Naveen Patnaik. Having governed his state fairly well for three consecutive terms, he has the experience to handle the PM's post.

(5) Bitter experiences of the past: They say 'History repeats itself'. The four federal governments that were formed in the 1990s are testimony to the fact that such an experiment can never be sustainable and will only result in political instability. In 1989, Vishwananth Pratap Singh led the first such government at the Centre which barely lasted for an year. The reason for the fall of this regime was that Chandra Shekar led faction broke away, a clear indication that such formations never work. Chandra Shekar who succeeded Singh fared even badly, staying in power only for 223 days after the Congress withdrew its support, accusing him of spying on their leader Rajiv Gandhi. The third experiment of a regional alliance was in 1996 when Deve Gowda headed the United Front government. Prior to the government formation, there were several uneasy meetings to decide the new PM. It is widely believed that Lalu Yadav prevented Mulayum from being the PM to make sure that he does not emerge as the biggest Yadav leader in the country. Less than an year later, his regime fell and I K Gujral occupied the highest executive post in the country. There is one important event that took place while Gujral was at the helm of affairs which is worth reading. It is relevant because such situations may arise in case of a Third Front government comes to power in 2014. As PM, Gujral tried his best to shield Lalu Yadav as the CBI was investigating the multi-crore Fodder scam. You see the regional parties have a narrow minded approach. They fail to see what is good for the country as a whole, rather focusing on their states. Such an approach is not ideal for leading a nation as diverse as ours. Though I firmly believe that smaller outfits are one of the greatest features of our democracy, I think that giving the reins of the Central government to them is like allowing a 15 year old drive a car. While the teenager may do a decent job, there are high chances that he may crash his vehicle. At the same time I do not say that the two national parties or rather the coalitions that they are heading - the UPA and the NDA are the best choice. However if I have to choose amongst the three 'Devils', I will definitely chose them any day over the Third Front.

RIOTS IN UP AND ELECTIONS 2014 - Part I

HOW THE RIOTS IN WESTERN UP WILL AFFECT THE FORTUNES OF PARTIES

Though the riots that took place in parts of western Uttar Pradesh in August last year are a blot on the secular credentials of our nation, for our political parties who seem to be least bothered by the suffering of the people, it is just another opportunity to score brownie points over their rivals. Instead of trying to bring communities together and eliminate differences, outfits are adding smoke to the fire by openly taking sides with an eye on the upcoming General Elections scheduled for May this year. With Uttar Pradesh sending 80 MPs to the Parliament - the largest amongst all states, it is said that the road to New Delhi passes via Lucknow. As such, it should hardly be surprising that our leaders can pull off even the dirtiest of all tricks to come to power, even if it means that some innocent lives are lost or thousands are displaced from their homes. While some believed that the ascend of the young Akhilesh Yadav in March 2012 would usher in a new kind of politics in our most populous state, his innumerable failures in the last year and a half have proved even his most die-hard fans, if they exist, wrong.

The complete collapse of the administration during the riots and its inability to provide basic facilities in relief camps has drawn a lot of flake from the Opposition as well as social groups. While he was quick to suspend the honest IAS officer Durga Shakti Nagpal for whipping up communal sentiments by demolishing a compound wall of a mosque - a charge that has been refuted even by the people affected by this, the callousness that his regime displayed in restoring law and order is an indication, perhaps that the young Turk intends to carry forward his father's legacy of caste based and religion based politics.Though younger Yadav deserves all the criticism that he is getting, other parties can not wash their hands off it. Reports indicated that local leaders with affiliation to the BJP, the Congress as well as the BSP played a key role in whipping up communal sentiments. Finally, after the officials succeeding in stopping the violence, the high profile visits by political leaders including RLD's Arjun Singh,  the triumvirate of the Congress and the 'funniest' of all, that of the recently jailed Lalu Yadav of the RJD is nothing but another gimmick to cash in on the situation. As the big battle for Delhi is just months away, here is my take on how the events in Muzaffaranagar will affect the poll prospects of the different stake holders.

The biggest loser: While it is difficult to predict who will derive maximum 'benefit' from this ghastly tragedy, it seems that former PM Charan Singh's son and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) supremo Chaudhary Arjun Singh will be the one licking the wounds post the Lok Sabha polls. Though he has

RLD supremo Ajit Singh

always been over shadowed by the more vociferous and charismatic Mulayum Singh and Mayawati in the state politics, there is no doubt that Singh is one of the most clever politicians in the Hindi heartland. While his party may not boast of big numbers, his remarkable political acumen, his popularity in Western UP and the knack to ally with the right partners make him a prominent player in Lucknow. However, the last two years have not been a good one for either him or his party. In the 2012 state assembly polls, in spite of a pre-poll tie up with the much hyped Congress, the party dropped one seat to finish at a lowly 9 seats. Though the heir apparent and MP Jayant won the Mathura constituency, heavyweights like Baba Hardev Singh and Haji Yakub Qureshi had to bite the dust. The role of Singh who is serving as the Civil Aviation minister in the national cabinet, in pushing through the Jet-Etihad deal has raised many eyebrows. At a time when things are not going his way, the rift between the Jats and the Muslims - the traditional vote bank of the RLD following the riots may badly affect its performance, rendering it insignificant in the post poll scenario. With even the Congress re-thinking its alliance with Singh's outfit ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, the picture for Chaudhary looks gloomy.

A major blow: In March 2012, the wily Mulayum Singh Yadav took a big gamble by placing his son Akhilesh on the CM's chair. However, those who follow Indian politics know that anything that UP strong man does has a political motive behind it. By offering the post to his son, he was checking the ambitions of other big leaders - his brother Ram Gopal Yadav and the party's minority face Azam Khan. Having swept UP and after being elevated to the status of 'Netaji' by the party cadre, Singh

From left: Azam Khan, Mulayum Singh and Akhilesh

who was confident of an excellent performance in 2014 was hoping to play the King-Maker at the Centre while his son ruled from Lucknow. However, for once, his plan has backfired or at least it seems so as of now. Akhilesh's incompetency and misgovernance has led to a wave of anti-incumbency within two years of his party's outstanding results in the last state polls. The mishandling of the situation in Muzaffarnagar has alienated the Muslims - the community which, along with the Yadavs is the core vote bank of the Samajwadi Party (SP). Meanwhile, party leader Azam Khan who shares an uneasy relationship with Mulayum has been accused by many in the riot hit Muzaffarnagar district of 'orchestrating' the violence and his effigies have been burnt in several places. The only reason why I think that RLD will be the bigger loser as compared to its former ally the SP is the fact that the latter may still do well in case the Yadavs still stick with it. Though he has himself tried to maintain the moral high ground by criticizing the state government, Singh should realize that instead of such gimmicks, he must take his son to task and concentrate on improving the administration in the state. In 2009, the gravitation of a section of Muslims towards the Congress damaged the SP's performance, reducing it to a mere 23 seats. With so much negative publicity surrounding the riots, the party is under fire from all corners including former friends Ajit Singh and Lalu Yadav. However, one can never write the Pehalvan off; you never know when the master politician can pull off a surprise ahead of the big polls.

For the next post on this topic, click here (Link)

IMAGES 

(1) RLD supremo Ajit Singh
Source: Rashtriya Lok Dal - Official Website (Link)

(2) From left: Azam Khan, Mulayum Singh and Akhilesh
Source: Samajwadi Party - Official Website (Link)

THE STATES THAT MATTER - PART V

BATTLEGROUND UP - Part C

Apart from the caste factor, communal politics too has been a hallmark of UP politics. The BJP which rose to prominence after the demolition of the Babri Masjid has promised to construct a Ram temple in Ayodhya in its poll manifesto for 2012. Though nothing was done in this regard during the time that the NDA was in power at the Centre, the party is hoping that Lord Ram may help it regain its lost hold in the state. The move to go to polls in Uttar Pradesh under the leadership of Hindutva firebrand Uma Bharathi is being looked upon by many as an attempt to consolidate the Hindu votes in favor of the saffron outfit, more so, after other parties have promised a list of soaps for the minority community. Also, the party leaders have so far avoided making any provocative statement against the Muslim community, unlike Varun Gandhi in 2009, damaging all prospects of the party.

Salman Rushdie

However, the war to get the Muslim votes, that constitute 20% of UP's population has intensified amongst the other three parties - SP, BSP and Congress. With the Babri Masjid verdict going against the community, anger seems to be simmering within the community. In the past, Mulayam has relied on the Muslim-Yadav votes to come to power in UP. In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, though, a significant chunk of the party's Muslim  support base deserted to the Congress. Realizing that such a trend could be detrimental to his interest in the future, the SP supremo banished Kalyan Singh from the party, who was at the helm of affairs during the demolition of Babri Masjid. Azam Khan who was expelled from the SP due to differences with Amar Singh has been roped back into the party fold, thereby boosting Mulayam's chances of coming to power in UP. Even Behenji has announced a host of initiatives to appease the Muslims community. 

The Congress too has left no stone unturned to impress the Muslim voters. Salman Khurshid, the Minister for Minority Affairs had earlier promised that his party would provide reservations for the Muslims if elected to power in Uttar Pradesh but backtracked his statement after many accused the Congress of playing the minority card to its advantage. The party is also raking the Batla House encounter issue which evokes passion among the Muslims in the state who allege that the police actions were uncalled for and the men who died has no terrorist links whatsoever, for political gains. Rahul has accused the SP and the BSP of not doing enough for the Muslims of the state over the years and has urged them to support him in this elections.  

Ironically, the most high profile victim of the communal politics of UP this time around was well renowned writer, Salman Rushdie. The author of the banned book, Satanic Verses was supposed to come down to India earlier this year to be a part of the Jaipur Literature Fest. However, due to mounting protest from Islamic leaders and fear of losing the Muslim votes in UP, the UPA government was caught in a catch 22 situation as any move to facilitate Rushdie's entry or stay in India would not go well with the minorities. Annoyed by the government's apathy, Rushdie called off his trip claiming that his sources had warned him that assassins had been hired to eliminate him while in Jaipur. Also the Rajasthan government was said to play a key role in the cancellation of video link between Rushdie and the Literature fest. The BJP has accused the UPA of politicizing the whole issue for electoral gains. However, the Sangh Parivar had launched a similar witch hunt against painter M F Hussain some years back, forcing him to flee to London and then accept citizenship of Qatar.

D P Yadav

Though it may have failed on multiple fronts, the BSP government has been credited for improving the law and order situation in Uttar Pradesh. Under the erstwhile Mulayam regime, 'Goonda Raj' was prevalent across the state and the whole system was filled with goons and people with criminal background. However, Maya has been able to sternly deal with this issue and her administration has been relatively cleaner. In fact,  the hooliganism under the SP government has been used by the BSP to counter anti-incumbency. Well aware of the fact that SP's image as a party of goons may cost it dearly in the 2012 polls, Akhilesh Yadav is said to have personally intervened and vetoed against Western UP's don D P Yadav's entry into the Samajwadi Party. 

All major political parties have fielded candidates with criminal records. Prominent amongst these include Kaptan Singh Rajput, Bhagwan Sharma and Mehboob Ali of the SP, Ram Sewak Patel, Indra Pratap Tiwari and Manjo Tiwari of the BSP, Kalawati Bind, Babban Rajbhar and Ajai Rai of the Congress and Radhey Sham Gupta, Lallu Singh and Santram Senger of the BJP. After being snubbed by the SP, D P Yadav has decided to contest as a candidate of the Rashtriya Parivartan Dal. Relatively smaller parties too have followed the precedent set by the larger parties. Dons of Eastern UP Mukhtar Ansari and Brijesh Singh are also in the fray and have got tickets from Qaumi Ekta and Pragatisheel Manav Samaj Party respectively. Khurmi outfit Apna Dal has fielded Munna Bajrangi and Atia Ahmad who have criminal cases against them.

With her eyes on the polls, the Mayawati government passed a resolution in the state assembly asking the Centre to break-up the mega state into four smaller states for administrative purposes.  According to the proposal, the new states would be Poorvanchal (Eastern UP), Harit Pradesh (Western UP), Bundelkhand and Awadh Pradesh (Central UP). Many have questioned Behenji's commitment towards the cause as they believe that the move has ulterior motives. In fact most of the parties seem to have been stumped by Maya's political acumen.

Mayawati's proposal to split Uttar Pradesh

By sending the proposal to the Centre, the BSP has certainly put the ball in the Congress's court. Knowing that the Congress had earlier made a mess of the Telangana statehood issue with different leaders speaking in different tunes, Mayawati has put the Congress on a sticky wicket. In case the Centre approves Maya's proposal, it could open a Pandora's box and demands for statehood from other parts of the country. However, if the government rejects it then Congress will be portrayed as anti-UP by the BSP. As such the party has not yet made its stand clear on this issue. On the other hand, the SP has always opposed any division of the state on the grounds that such a move could diminish the political influence of the state in national politics. The party, which was also against the creation of Uttarakhand has made it clear that it will fight against any division of the state. The BJP which has always supported the creation of smaller states has demanded that the division should be done after setting up a state reorganization committee. 

Another big poll issue this election season is the statues of Mayawati, Kanshi Ram and Dr Ambedkar that have been erected in different places throughout the state by the BSP government with money got from the public exchequer. The BSP supremo has claimed that such a move is in the interest of the lower classes as Dr Ambedkar and BSP founder Kanshi Ram have been looked upon by the ordinary Dalits as their heroes. As far as her own statues are concerned, Behenji says that these were erected according to the wishes of her mentor late Shri Kanshi Ram.  Going a step further, at an election rally in Lucknow, Maya declared that under her government the state's capital was transformed into Paris due to the construction of the parks. 

However, the opposition has been united in condemning this move of the state government. Mulayam Singh has declared publicly that he will bulldoze Mayawati's statues if he comes back to power. Even the BJP has claimed that it will replace Maya's statues with those of spiritual leaders and social reformers. The Election Commission too has asked the Maya regime to cover her statues and that of her party's election symbol, the elephant ahead of the polls. Maya has accused the her opponents and the EC of being biased towards the Dalits and has asked the people to teach the opposition a lesson in the upcoming polls. 

Mayawati's statues

The Mayawati statues have been one of the several self-glorification exercises by the Dalit leader in the last five years. In 2010, the UP CM was presented with a garland of Rs 1000 notes by her ministers at a rally attended by countless admirers. In its India cables, WikiLeaks reported an incident where the BSP leader sent a private jet to Mumbai to fetch sandals of her preferred brand. It also claimed that she had constructed a private road from her house to her office which is cleaned each day and that she employs food tasters as she fears that she may be assassinated by poisoning. Meanwhile, Maya has refuted the allegations and has advised WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange to undergo mental treatment.

The Bhatta-Parsaul agitation against forcible land grabbing by hte BSP government may cost the party, especially in the farming belt of Western UP. Several villagers were allegedly killed by the police in the agitation and their womenfolk were molested. The issue soon snowballed into a huge controversy with the Congress and the BJP trying to use this issue to counter Mayawati. Rahul Gandhi and Digvijay Singh who led a protest march to the village were arrested by the state officials. Rahul claimed to have seen an ash mound where bodies of dead villagers were supposedly burnt by the security staff to cover up the whole incident. However, investigations later proved that such claims were baseless. Even BJP leader Arun Jaitely was arrested before arriving in the village to assess the situation. Sensing that she could lose the support of the farmers from Western UP, Mayawati announced a new land acquisition policy in the state where private parties would themselves acquire land from its owners whwereas the state government would just act as a facilitator. 

Lastly, another peculiar feature of the elections in Uttar Pradesh this time around is the number of smaller parties that are in the fray that could spoil the prospects of several parties. The most prominent among these is the Ajit Singh's RLD. The party has a strong support base in Western UP, especially amongst the Jat farmers. Over the years, the RLD has been in alliance with the SP and the BJP in the past. However, the party walked out of the NDA and joined the UPA in December, 2011. Under the arrangement, Ajit Singh was made the Union Minister for Aviation at the Centre. The Congress is hoping that the pre-poll alliance would benefit both the sides. 

RLD's Ajit Singh

Rashtriya Lokmanch Party's chief Amar Singh is canvassing heavily in different parts of the state for his party's candidates in spite of not keeping well lately, accusing Mulayam Singh of betraying him. The party's main campaigner is Bollywood beauty Jaya Prada who is campaigning in Rampur against the local SP leader and her political foe Azam Khan. Even former CM Kalyan Singh has hit out at other parties while on the campaign trail. He has calimed that the BJP will never be able to come to power in UP. The Jan Kranti Party leader has handed over the reins of his party to his son Ranveer. 

The Peace Party of India, the Bundelkhand Congress and the Apna Dal have come together to forge an alliance named the 'Rashtriya Morcha' to fight the political biggies. The Peace Party was founded by surgeon Mohammad Ayub to unite the Muslims and the Backward classes. Its chief aim is to prevent the political exploitation of these communities by other parties. Actor turned politician Raja Bundela of the Bundela Congress is hopeful that it will do well in the Bundelkhand region. The Khurmi outfit, Apna Dal is hoping to bounce from the set back that it received after the tragic death of its president Sone Lal Patel in a road accident in 2009. The party under Patel's daughter Krishna Patel is hoping to emerge from the shadows of the BSP and muster as many seats as possible. According to the arrangement, the Peace Party would contest a majority of 240 seats and the alliance is hoping to get the Muslim, Dalit, Kshatriya and Khurmi votes. 

Several other regional parties have come together to form a grand alliance, 'Ittehadi Front'. Its major constituents include Bharatiya Samaj Party, Quami Ekta Dal, Ittehad-e-Millet Council, Gondwana Ganatantra Party, Indian Justice Party, Bharatiya Janseva Party and so on. The Front has the blessings of Maulana Syed Salman Nadvi, a member of the All India Muslim Personal law Board. Though the Peace Party and its allies were to be a part of this combine, there were later expelled due to differences over a range of issues. 

Though the issues are many it will be interesting to see how Uttar Pradesh votes. Poll pundits have predicted that the state may be heading towards a hung assembly. Knowing that a friendly government in Lucknow is essential for a sound and stable government in New Delhi, all four major players will give it all to be in contention in the process of government formation. We will have to keep our fingers crossed till 6th March to see who is crowned as the King of Uttar Pradesh. Hopefully the new government will sincerely work to solve the problems that plague the people and make Uttar Pradesh an 'Uttam Pradesh'.

More on the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2012

Battleground UP - Part A

Battleground UP - Part B

SOURCES

(1) First Post - Parties renege on promise; no escaping criminals in UP (Link)

(2) Times of India - Mayawati's plan to divide and rule Uttar Pradesh may be split in four parts (Link)

(3) Times of India - Mayawati sent empty jet to Mumbai for sandals: WikiLeaks (Link)

(4) Yahoo! News - Amar Singh accuses Mulayam of betrayal (Link)

(5) Times of India - Lotus will never bloom again in UP: Kalyan (Link)

(6) Our UP - Bundelkhand Congress, Peace Party, Apna Dal alliance for UP elections 2012 (Link)

(7) India Today - Minor parties gear up to spoil big player's poll outing in Uttar Pradesh (Link)

(8) Milli Gazette - Salman Nadvi blesses 13-party Ittehad Front in UP (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Salman Rushdie

Source - First Post.Life - Hari Kunzu, Amitava Kumar read out from Rushidie's Satanic Verses - (Link)

(2) D P Yadav

Source - News 24 - Akhilesh lacks political maturity - D P Yadav - (Link)

(3) Mayawati's proposal to split Uttar Pradesh

Source - Pravasi Today (Link)

(4) Mayawati's statues

Source : NDTV - UP Polls - Mayawati's statues to be draped today after Election Commission's Order (Link)

(5) RLD's Ajit Singh

Samay Live - Ajit Singh, Nachiketas dismiss Wikileaks claims (Link)

THE STATES THAT MATTER - PART V

 BATTLEGROUND UP - Part B

With a population of over 20 crore people and encompassing an area of over 2.43 lakh sq km, Uttar Pradesh is the big daddy amongst all states of the Indian Union. Though blessed with fertile land and vast bounty of natural and human resource, the state has lagged behind others in terms of infrastructure development and social progress. While UP has given the country eight Prime Ministers since independence, ironically, the state which has been the melting pot of various cultures in ancient and medieval times, and its people have remained largely backward in many aspects. A crucial reason for this has been the fact that the politics of UP has been dominated by insignificant factors like caste and religion. 

In the last assembly elections conducted in the state in 2007, an important factor, apart from the ‘Social Engineering’ strategy that led to the BSP’s excellent showing was a strong wave of anti-incumbency against the Mulayam Singh regime. With the BJP jostling with infighting amongst its top leaders and the state unit of the Congress in complete disarray, the anti-SP votes went into Maya’s kitty leading her to a simple majority in the Uttar Pradesh Vidhan Soudha. However, this time around the tables have turned on the BSP. With the few development schemes of the Mayawati government being overshadowed by the numerous corruption scandals, poll pundits have predicted that the party may find it extremely tough to cross the 150 mark, let alone coming into power on its own.

UP CM  Mayawati

The Samajwadis have undergone significant changes in their ranks in the last five years that they were in the opposition. After the Left parties pulled out their support to the UPA - I government on the issue of the Nuclear bill, it was the SP that bailed the Central government out with the help of its 39 MPs. However, with differences over the Congress on seat sharing in the state, the SP joined the ‘Fourth Front’, comprising of the RJD, LJP and SP. Although the party was reduced to 23 seats in the Lok Sabha, it salvaged some pride by finishing at the top in the four way contest in Uttar Pradesh. In January 2011, industrialist cum politician Amar Singh was expelled from the SP. Known for his affluent lifestyle, links with Bollywood personalities and accused in several cases of corruption, Singh’s exit has added more credibility to the outfit.

The Samajwadi Party has launched a massive campaign, titled ‘Ummed ki Cycle’ to wrest back power from the BSP. Leading the poll bandwagon is Kannauj MP and the party’s Yuvraj Akhilesh Yadav. The young leader’s cycle rallies across different corners of the state have been a huge hit and have witnessed sizable crowds. The state polls will be a crucial phase in the young scion’s political career and a good showing by the SP will firmly establish him as a prominent player in North Indian politics. The foreign educated Akhilesh has also made it clear that his party is not against computers or English, a paradigm shift from its earlier stand and an attempt to reach out to the urban youth. However, he has maintained that emphasis will be on Hindi and Urdu in case his father gets a fourth term as the state’s Chief Minister.

However, the greatest worry for the SP is losing the anti-BSP votes to a resurgent Congress. After being out of power for the last 22 years and reduced to a mere 21 seats in the last elections, the UP unit of the party has been rejuvenated by the entry of Rahul Gandhi into the election campaign. Though his charisma failed to impress the electorate in Bihar, Rahul seems to have touched a chord with the people of UP. This was evident in the superb performance of the Congress in the General elections where it bagged as many as 21 seats surpassing all expectations.

Realizing that a strong presence in the state will hold the key to his party’s future, the young leader has never missed any opportunity to hit at the Mayawati government, be it the Bhatta-Parsaul agitation against forcible land grabbing, lack of development or the allegations of corruption against Behenji and her colleagues. In his speeches, Rahul has blamed the successive SP, BSP and BJP governments in Lucknow for the lack of infrastructure development in the state, ignoring the fact that no worthwhile development was done during the 40 year long period when the Congress was in power in the state. An alliance with Ajit Singh’s RLD has also enhanced the Congress’s poll prospects. While her older brother is campaigning across the nook and corner of the state, Priyanka Gandhi, the other half of the famous Gandhi siblings is canvassing for the party’s candidates in the family bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareli.

With so much media hype revolving around Rahul, many are claiming that this could be the make-or-break elections for him A good showing by the Congress will be regarded as a vote for Rahul rather than for the Congress’s ideology by the loyal party workers and will be heralded as his coming of age in the arena of Indian politics, thereby accelerating his ascent towards the PM’s post. However, an average performance could end up giving more ammunition to the BJP and other parties to ridicule the Congress’s poster boy. Though there is little doubt that senior party leaders will defend Rahul baba at all costs in case of an electoral drubbing, like they did after the Bihar polls in 2010, the whole situation will surely be embarrassing for the Congress, to say the least.

Even the BJP is trying hard to retain lost ground in the state. The saffron outfit which ruled the state under Kalyan Singh and Rajnath Singh has been consistently losing ground in the state over the last few years. For a party that began its journey to the top of Indian politics from UP, it is ironically that today, the BJP finds itself in such a hopeless position in the state. Strengthening the party in Uttar Pradesh is one of the topmost priorities of the chief Nitin Gadkari. With this objective in mind the party has made Hindutva firebrand and its OBC face, Uma Bharathi as the spearhead of its election campaign. Also the party is trying hard to woo back the upper caste votes that had gone to the BSP in the last election.

Babu Singh Kushwaha

Ever since the whole nation stood behind Anna Hazare in the fight for a strong and effective Lokpal, corruption has become a major political issue in every state that goes to polls this year and Uttar Pradesh is no exception. With fresh allegations of corruption cropping up at regular intervals against Behenji and her ministers, the Opposition has upped its ante against the state government. Many will remember that during her previous tenure, the UP CM was accused of accepting graft to give clearance to the multi-crore Taj Corridor project, ignoring all environmental concerns and the damaging effects it would have on the World Heritage Monument. Though no significant progress has been made in the CBI investigation looking into the scam, a slew of corruption charges against the Dalit icon’s cabinet ministers and close aides might cut short her dream of retaining the mega state.

Probably, the most well-known of all the scams that have tarnished the BSP government is the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) scam in which top ministers, bureaucrats and their aides have been accused of siphoning off an estimated Rs 10,000 crore released by the Central government for improving health care in remote areas of the state. Moreover, the death of several heath department officials under mysterious circumstances is been widely viewed as an attempt to cover up the scam by eliminating key links that lead to the actual perpetrators of the crime. Meanwhile, Union Rural Development minister Jairam Ramesh has asked Mayawati to order a CBI investigation into the embezzlement of funds meant for the implementation of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) in several districts of the state. The myriad cases of land grabbing, amassing of disproportionate assets, misuse of power and public wealth have clearly put the elephant on the back foot.

Rahul Gandhi is raking up the issue of widespread corruption in the Maya government to get the Congress into power in Lucknow. In every rally that the PM-in-waiting has addressed so far in the state, he has accused the BSP’s Hatthi of eating all money released by the UPA government for the welfare of the state. On similar lines, the father-son duo of Mulayam Singh and Akhilesh Yadav has also focused on the issue of corruption to catapult the SP back to power. The BJP, which had earlier accused the Maya government of indulging in widespread corruption, scored a self-goal by welcoming the former state minister Babu Singh Kushwaha into the party after he was shown the door by Behenji following investigations into the NRHM scam. Besides, hitting the credibility of the saffron outfit, it has also damaged the morale of the cadre, who reports suggest, were against the move taken unilaterally by the high command.

As always, instead of taking all the criticism lying down, the ‘Iron Lady’ of Uttar Pradesh has launched a major campaign to get an image makeover ahead of the polls. After a report by the CAG indicted the state health and family welfare ministries in the NHRM scam, Mayawati dropped two of her closest ministers, Babu Singh Kushwaha (Family Welfare) and Anant Kumar Mishra (Health) from her cabinet and her party. Several tainted babus including Awadhesh Verma (Backward Class Development), Fateh Bahadur Singh (Forest), Anis Ahmed (Minorities Welfare & Haj), Awadhpal Singh Yadav (Animal Husbandry & Diary Development), etc were sacked after the state Lokayukta started probing allegations against them. Others like Shrinath (Chairman of UP SC/ST Commission), Disha Chamber (Chairman of UP Scheduled Caste Finance Commission) and Ashok Kumar Dhore (Water Resource) were dismissed for reasons like extra-marital affair, indiscipline and misconduct respectively. Like the BJP in Uttarakhand, the BSP has dropped nearly a third of all its sitting MLAs, including nearly 20 ministers in the incumbent government.

While it is true that Maya’s record in the last five years in tackling corruption in UP has been dismal, to say the least, no political party can claim moral high ground on this issue. To counter Rahul tirade against the BSP government for being inefficient to tackle this menace, Mayawati has hit back by highlighting the several scandals that have plagued the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre. The entry of Kushwaha into the BJP has dealt a severe blow to the party’s campaign in the state and it has failed to derive any political mileage out of the catch 22 situation that the Congress and the BSP find themselves in. The Samajwadis have decided to play it safe and have slammed its doors on all cabinet ministers and MLAs who wanted to join its rank after being dumped by the BSP. Meanwhile, investigations into allegations of corruption against Mulayam and his close relatives, including Akhilesh are still in progress. 

Dalit women

Probably, the biggest issue in all elections in UP so far, from the Lok Sabha elections to the Panchayat elections has been the caste factor. Whether one accepts or not, it is rather sad that the caste of the candidate decides whom the voter votes for in. Over the years, regional satraps like Maya and Mulayam have become masters of this trade.

Behenjihas emerged to be the most popular Dalitleader in India and her party's vote bank is primarily the Harijan votes. In 2007, she reached out to other communities, most notably the upper castes with her unique experiment of 'Social Engineering' - a brainchild of leader, Subhash Mishra, and came to power with an absolute majority. The Brahmin leader was sidelined in the BSP after he was accused of appointing his family members to party posts, leading to protests from the Dalit leaders who felt that this would cause the party's core vote bank to drift away. Soon their fears turned into reality when a significant chunk of Dalit votes went to the Congress and the BSP managed to get only 20 seats in the last general elections. Hoping to retain her post and the to woo the Brahmin community, Mayawati has brought back Mishra into the forefront ahead of the polls. 

Like Mayawati, the SP's primary vote bank is the Yadav and OBC community to which its leader Mulayam belongs to. The Congress is also hoping to win the Dalit and OBC communities to its side, with Rahul Gandhi making every effort possible to reach out to them. The BJP on its part is going all out to bring back the Brahmin votes, which it had lost to the BSP in 2007, to its kiity. Also, by making OBC leader Uma Bharati the face of its state campaign, the saffron outfit is hoping to increase its chances of winning as many seats as possible. Besides, it has also risked roping in Babu Kushwaha to win over the Kushwaha community that accounts for 3% of the state's population.

More on the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2012

Battleground UP - Part A

Battleground UP - Part C

SOURCES

(1) Zee News –Multi-crore MNREGA scam in UP, alleges Ramesh (Link)

(2) Wikipedia – Taj Corridor Scam, UP NHRM scam, Akhilesh Yadav (Link) 

(3) BSP claims Mayawati sacked ministers after survey – India Today (Link)

(4) With eye on UP polls, Mayawati intensifes clean-up – India Today (Link)

(5) Mayawati woos Brahmins in run up to elections, projects SC Mishra as leader (Link)

IMAGES

(1) UP CM Mayawati (Link)

Source: Zee News

(2) Babu Singh Kushwaha (Link)

Source : India Today

(3) Dalit women (Link)

Source : Jagran Post