CLOSE ENCOUNTER IN C'GARH - PART I

CHHATTISGARH 2013: WILL SINGH BE THE KING?

Courtesy: India TV News

Of the five states that go to the polls at the fag end of the year, the contest in Chhattisgarh is expected to be the closest. The events that have happened here in the last few months just surprises me. About six months back, the odds were in favor of the BJP; it was expected that Raman Singh's clean image and the schemes implemented under his tenure of 10 years would help his party cross the half way mark with ease. However, the unfortunate incident in Dharba which wiped off the entire local party leadership seems to have charged the Congress camp. Recent reports coming out of Raipur suggest a neck to neck contest for most of the 90 seats in the legislature. Like in all of the poll bound states in the heartland, the two national parties are trying their best to garner support, aware that a good show will also reflect in the Lok Sabha 2014.

A doctor in Ayurvedic medicine, Dr Raman Singh commands immense respect in political circles as he is one of the few leaders to have come from the grassroots. Once a municipal councilor from Kawardha, he progressed to become the Union Minister for Commerce and Industry in the Vajpayee cabinet. His big moment, though came in 2003 when the BJP came to power in the first elections held in the newly created state. As the party's CM candidature Dilip Singh Judeo was caught on camera, allegedly accepting a bribe, Raman who was the BJP state president back then was chosen for the top job. Ever since, he has not looked back. Sticking to the development card, he won a second consecutive term in the 2008 polls. Like his counterpart in Madhya Pradesh and much unlike another Dr Singh who heads the country, Raman is extremely popular amongst the electorate, owing to his clean image. In contrast to other BJP leaders, the secular credentials of the incumbent CM have never been an issue of debate. In fact, of all present CMs of the saffron party, Dr Singh is the second longest serving, behind Narendra Modi.

Amongst the various schemes launched during his tenure, the most well known is the reformed Public Distribution Scheme (PDS). Under this, rice is given at a nominal rate of Rs 2 per kg for BPL families. With the aid of technology, the Chhattisgarh regime has made sure that the poor can avail the benefits of this programme. Firstly, the government has provided chip enabled ration cards which when swiped, can tell the details of the family including its income range and the stock that they are entitled to. Besides computerizing kirana shops, the government has also put in stringent measures while selecting PDS dealership. GPS enabled vehicles are used to transport grains to these shops and several steps are put into place to ensure that the public can spot and report malpractices. The whole process is monitored by a central server. The success of the Chhattisgarh system has won praises by both civil society and some members of the Opposition. This scheme has earned Singh a new name - that of 'Chawal wale baba'.

However, in the run up to the polls, cracks have emerged in the saffron camp. In a bid to curtail losses due to anti-incumbency, the party had dropped 13 MLAs while giving ticket to 25 fresh faces. As such, it is not so surprising that disgrunted members have either jumped on to the Congress bandwagon or have entered the fray as independents. Leading this is Karuna Shukla, the niece of former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee who quit the party after being denied a nomination. After resigning from the BJP, she is canvassing for Alka Mudliyar who is the Congress nominee from Rajnandgaon - the CM's constituency. Five time legislator and former minister Ganesh Ram Bhagat has filed his nomination as an independent from Jashpur. Rajya Sabha MP Nand Kumar Sai has been an open critic of the Singh government. Considering that even a small margin swing can decide the final outcome of the results in a state like Chhattisgarh, internal fued can deny Singh a third term.

For more on Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections 2013, click here (Link)

SHIV-RAJ IN MP? - PART IV

MADHYA PRADESH 2013: THE ISSUES THAT MATTER

DEVELOPMENT

Nobody can deny the fact that Madhya Pradesh, a state that has lagged behind others in terms of development has made some worth while progress under the leadership of Shivraj Singh Chauhan in the last eight years. When he ascended the chair way back in late 2005, he was not a well known face in local politics. Besides, he was facing the wrath of his bete noire Uma Bharati - the firebrand leader who, after being sidelined for openly taking on the top leadership, launched her own outfit. In a bid to counter the challenges facing him and to bolster his personal image, Chauhan launched two populist schemes - free TV sets and rice at one rupee per kilo which were mass hits. Then came the numerous welfare schemes, many of which got praises even from his harshest critics. These include the Ladli Lakshmi Scheme, the state government buys NSC worth Rs 30,000 over a period of five years after the birth of a girl child. While the parents get some fixed amount at the end of a certain time periods, they girl may get up to Rs 1 lakh after she turns 21 years old. The Kanyadhan Yojna gives Rs 7,500 to poor families during their daughter's wedding whereas the Janani Suraksha Yojna provides all assistance to pregnant mothers till child birth. Data available shows that the implementation of these schemes have benefited thousands of people so far.

Traditionally classified as a BIMARU state, there is no doubt that Madhya Pradesh has improved under the tenure of Chauhan. During the days of Digvijay Singh, the conditions of the roads in several regions of MP was pathetic to say the least. On the contrary, the incumbent CM has added over 90,000 km of roads in the last eight years - one of his biggest USPs. Of course, there is a lot of scope for improvement even now. Another issue on which he has delivered is power generation. Ever since he took over, the state's power production has grown by 10,000 MW. While water supply remains a concern in several parts, the situation has improved to some extent. Agriculture has received an impetus, especially in the Vindhya region with the construction of two key projects - Banasagar and Gulab Sagar. Wheat production has grown manifolds, and MP is today, the third highest producer of this crop, trailing Punjab and Haryana. At the same time, several IT companies have decided to open their branches in an IT Park in Indore after the CM promised to offer them certain concessions besides reducing bureaucratic hassles. Though several scandals have rocked his government at regular intervals, Shivraj is perceived by the electorate as a non-corrupt leader who has delivered as far as bijli, sadak aur paani is concerned.

ANTI-INCUMBENCY

While the BJP believes that it will comfortably cross the 116 mark for the third time, history seems to suggest otherwise. Ever since the state was placed under President's Rule in 1993, there has been a change in regime after every ten years in Bhopal. Diggi Raja occupied the CM's chair between 1993 to 2003 and the saffron party has ruled since then. As such, it will hardly be surprising if the masses give the Congress another shot, especially after it projected a new and a more credible face. Besides, for all the talks of development that has taken place here under Chauhan, the results are still only satisfactory. While road network has expanded, several villages continue to be inaccessible; water scarcity continues to be a major problem especially in the rural hinterland; the murder of environmental activist Shehla Masood and the failure to check the illegal activities of the sand mafia have put a big question mark on the intentions of the administration. Opinion polls suggest that the general conception amongst the farmers is that the incumbent government could have done a lot more to help them. In spite of all the schemes launched to provide women empowerment, Madhya Pradesh has recorded the highest cases of rapes against women. This is certainly a big embarrassment for Shivraj.

Another problem for the ruling party is that names of several of its ministers have figured either in corruption scandals or courted controversies of some sort. The CM's wife Sadhna Singh has been accused by the Opposition of buying four dumpers by specifying a fake residential address and then lending it to a cement company. The sodomy case involving former Finance Minister Raghavji, just few days prior to the polls is a big blow. Though the Vidisha strongman has been expelled, the damage seems to be done. Kailash Vijaywargiya who is in-charge of Industries has courted trouble time and again including when he defended the controversial God man Asaram Babu. Bhopal MLA Dhruvanarayan Singh's name figured in the Shehla Massod murder case. Other prominent leaders in this notorious list includes former CM Babulal Gaur, Animal Husbandry Minister Ajay Vishnoi, Medical Education Minister Anup Mishra and Education Minister Archana Chitnis. Twenty eight out of the 143 BJP MLAs have criminal cases pending against them. However, the Congress cannot claim the moral high ground here since 21 of its own men are tainted.

REBELLION

The factor that could take the victory away from the BJP is rebellion and defection amongst its ranks. In a bid to counter anti-incumbency, the party was forced into taking some tough decisions which may boomerang on it. Several sitting MLAs, including few cabinet ministers have been denied tickets. On the other hand, protests were staged by the cadre against the official party nominees in many places. While some of these dissidents are likely to contest as independents, many may join the Congress or smaller parties. Either way, it is Chauhan who will be hurt. In Ratlam constituency, party workers who were unhappy with the nomination of Chetan Kashyap marched to the house of former state Home Minister Himmat Kothari and convinced him to contest as an independent. Realizing that its 'bad' choices could be the deciding factor in the upcoming polls, the saffron outfit is trying hard to woo back the rebels. It was believed that former minister Raghavji who was shown the door few months ago was lobbying for a ticket for his daughter. As his demand was not met, it was speculated that he would rebel and hurt the BJP in at least five seats in the Vidisha region. However, after a behind the doors meeting with Sushma Swaraj, the veteran leader is said to be keeping a low profile. Meanwhile, Shivraj Chauhan has filed his nomination from Vidisha too.

In the Congress camp too, reports of dissidence have emerged. Vice President of the state committee Manak Aggarwal resigned from his post after he was denied a ticket from Hoshangabad. He has accused senior party leader Suresh Pachouri of conniving with the sand mafia to scuttle his chances. Ajay Singh - the Leader of Opposition in the out going legislature was believed to be upset with  Scindia & Kamal Nath faction for ignoring him while deciding party nominees in his home town. Naresh Malviya, another Congressman committed suicide after being denied a nomination from Agar. In Silwani, workers went on a rampage after Devendra Patel - a sitting MLA from the BJP who defected to the Congress was given a ticket. In the early days of the campaign it was believed that the two clans in the MP Congress - one led by the former CM Digvijay Singh and the other under young Jyothiraditya Scindia were fighting over the ticket allocation to their supporters.Luckily for them, it seems that the INC leaders here have realized that the only way to beat the Chauhan regime here is to be united. Just on the eve of the elections, it has been reported that all prominent state leaders were consulted before the final list of candidates was made public.

For more on the Madhya Pradesh Elections 2013, click here (Link)

JAI HO DEMOCRACY!

WILL THE TWO HISTORIC JUDGMENTS USHER IN ELECTORAL REFORMS?

In 1950, as our founding fathers choose a democratic form of government, many observers in the West were skeptical of this decision; they believed that a nation as diverse as ours which had been drained of its wealth by colonist for over four centuries and had not yet recovered from the scars of a bloody partition, would fall apart in case a strong, centralized regime is not put into place. Sixty three years down the line, with a population of over 1.2 billion, we are the biggest democracy in the world. More importantly, unlike several other Afro-Asian countries which got their freedom post the Second World War, we have always decided who our leaders will be; so what if many of our elected netas have gone back on their promises or used their power for personal gains. Although the manner in which we have stuck to our federal democratic principles even in testing times is truly appreciable, there are still several lacunae in our style of functioning. In recent time, widespread corruption and dearth of moral values amongst our leaders, right from the Panchayat level to the corridors of power in New Delhi has led to the public losing its faith in the political establishment. Any attempt to curtail their powers or reform the existing system has been thwarted with politicians cutting across party lines, refusing to budge and ignoring the sentiments of the very electorate that voted them to power. However, the apex court of the court seems to have taken notice of this. In the last month, two historic verdicts of the Supreme Court has given a big blow to political parties, thereby sparking off a massive debate; the calls for a revamp of our entire electoral system (which has been long overdue) are getting louder.

On 11 ^th July, a bench consisting of judges Patnaik and Mukhopadhaya delivered a judgement that came as a shock for our babus. The Section 8(4) of Representation of People's Act which allowed convicted MPs/MLAs up to three months time to file appeal in higher courts and thus prevent disqualification of their membership, was struck down as 'unconstitutional'. Hence forth, any member of the Parliament or the State Legislatures who has been found guilty of a crime which attracts a punishment of two years or more will not only be disqualified but will also be debarred from contesting elections for the next six years. Of course, the government, under pressure form parties across the political spectrum did file a review petition which, not so surprisingly, was dismissed on September 4. The Manmohan regime tried to bring in an ordinance to bail out its friends - the Lalus and the Mulayums. Unfortunately, this too was struck down - not after BJP's protests or Rahul Baba's drama but after public opinion started growing against it. The implication of this verdict is massive, considering that over 30 per cent of our elected politicians are having pending criminal cases against them. In a number game that our Rajneeti has been reduced to in recent times, parties decide their candidates based on win-ability, even if it means that they have to give to tickets to people with criminal background. And may a times, they tainted nominees make the cut using money and flexing their muscles. However, after the land mark judgement, things will definitely change. In fact, within days of this verdict, Lalu Yadav - the once powerful CM of Bihar who was slowly sinking into the oblivion in both state and national politics, became the first politician to lose his membership of Parliament after being indicted in the Fodder scam. It is expected that all parties will think twice before choosing a criminal to contest as it will only lead to embarrassment once the judiciary finally nails them.

The second judgment which was delivered by a three member bench headed by Chief Justice S Sathasivam on the 27 ^th of last month, has given the voter the right to negative voting. With the Election Commission agreeing to implement this at the earliest, from now on, every Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) will have a None of the Above as a last option. As such, if one doesn't find any candidate in the fray, whether contesting independently or representing a party, good enough to represent him or her, then he or she can press this option. While there is no clarity over what happens if majority in a constituency select this option, like in the first case, we can expect this verdict to have far reaching affects on our electoral processes in the future. Firstly, in the past, many of us have refrained from exercising our biggest fundamental right because we feel those in the fray are not worthy to lead us. Now that the 'No vote' option is given to the public, people who think this way will also come out and vote. As such participation will increase, thereby further strengthening our democracy. Thus, it gives the masses an opportunity to register their protest while making sure that they do not end up supporting any of the undeserving candidates. Secondly, it will put tremendous pressure on political parties as they have to choose 'good people' to fight elections under their banner. It is no secret that large amount of money is traded and lots of lobbying goes on before any political outfit decides on its nominee. Now that the people have the power to reject all candidates, they will have to be sure that they place good options before the electorate.

The two historic verdicts that have come out of the Supreme Court an year before the big 2014 General Elections is great news for we Indians. Over the years, politicians and parties had used the many loopholes in our system to their advantage. The two judgments have raised hopes that things will start changing very soon. While the parties are trying to keep themselves out of the RTI ambit by bringing in an Amendment and over ruling an earlier court judgment in this regard, they will at least have to think twice before finalizing their candidates in the upcoming elections. There is a two-layered fire wall to prevent crooks and thugs from entering the House of Representatives now. If parties put up bad candidates, then the we have the power to reject them and in case criminals do make the cut, then they will be disqualified immediately on conviction. There is still a long way to go. The right to recall and strict monitoring of funds spent in election campaigning are probably the next steps. I hope that key reforms are ushered in at the earliest, not only in the electoral system but also in other areas like judiciary and police where too they are long pending.

SOURCES 

(1) The Hindu: MPs, MLAs to be disqualified on the date of conviction (Link)

(2) Zee News: SC stands by its order on disqualifying convicted MPs, MLAs (Link)

(3) DNA: Voter has a right to negative voting: Supreme Court (Link)

AN ALLY IN NEED IS AN ALLY INDEED

THE RACE FOR 2014 IS ON

Courtesy: Top News

As the Indian National Congress (INC) think tank went into a hurdle for its two day Chintan Shivir in Jaipur, several of its top leaders have come out in the open about the need for new allies if the 'Grand Old Party of India' wants to come back to power for a third straight term. While the wily Finance Minister Chidambaram has said that it is very difficult for any party to gain an absolute majority on its own, the outspoken Rural Development Minister Jairam Ramesh hit the nail on its head when he told media persons that the INC may need the help of newer partners to form the next government. With many more leaders including Vayalar Ravi and P C Chako echoing Ramesh's line, one should not be surprised if the Congress sends out overtures to other 'like-minded' parties in the near future like the Janata Dal-United (JD-U), presently a constituent of the Opposition NDA or the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), its main adversary in the state of Odisha. As the Congress brain stormed the pros and cons of fighting polls in coalition with other regional outfits, Lalu Prasad Yadav, the original 'joker' of Indian politics, the tag which I believe, he has lost to Congress General Secretary Digvijaya Singh in the last few years, has sounded the electoral bugle and declared the next Lok Sabha polls to be a straight contest between the 'Secular' Congress-led UPA and the 'Communal' BJP-led NDA.

Remember Shri Lalu Prasad Yadav - the former CM of Bihar and the chief of the RJD who had famously declared that one day he would rule the nasion (nation) and serve the pipool (people) on NDTV's Follow the Leader show way back in 2004 when he was a force to reckon with. Speaking to the press in Patna, the former Railway Minister has ruled out the Third Front of being a serious contender for the 2014 General Elections by saying that it will be a two-way contest between the 'Secular' compartment and the 'Communal' compartment. After his party's shameful performance in the 2009, during which he formed the Fourth Front after seat sharing talks with the Congress failed and the near complete rout in the last Bihar assembly polls, the cunning Lalu has voluntarily decided to be a part of the UPA's campaign in its quest for a hat trick of wins and in the process, revive his own political career, which has taken a downward plunge in the last decade. The OBC leader's words reminds me of former US President George Bush's 'You are either with us, or against us' speech after the horrific 9/11 attacks where he gave a clarion call to the leaders around the world to unite, behind America of course, to weed out terror from the face of the Earth. By trying to rake up the 'pseudo secular versus pro-Hindutva' debate, Yadav is acting as a dalal for the ruling party, hopeful that the work done now will reap in benefits in the form of plum ministerial posts in the third installation of UPA.

The precarious situation that the Congress finds itself in, may explain the sudden spurge in the scouting for newer friends. Anti-incumbency apart, the unending lists of scams, high inflation, policy paralysis and more importantly, the lack of a proper vision to take the country forward will make it extremely difficult for the party to even come close to the 200 mark. In fact, after Mamata, who was having an on-off relationship with the government dumped it some time ago, the Manmohan regime is surviving on the outside support of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP). While the government is struggling, its allies in the UPA are doing even worse. The infamous 2G scam and war of succession in the DMK will negatively impact its tally; there is nothing to indicate that NCP may do outstandingly well; other outfits like the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) or the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (NC) will not cross the two digit mark. Besides, Jaganmohan Reddy's revolt and the indecisiveness over the Telangana issue will trim its prospects in a state that has sent the maximum number of MPs in both versions of the UPA. Aware of the multiple problems that plague it today, Congressmen are trying hard to woo other regional parties into its fold. The Janata Dal-United (JD-U) and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) whom political pundits predict to sweep Parliamentary seats on their home turf are high on its list of prospective pals with which it can enter into electoral agreements. Special economic soaps for Bihar and Odisha in the 2013 Union budgets may be one of the many concessions that Congress may offer in return of support.

Sadly for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), it is still to put its house in order to pose any threat to the ruling combine. The battle for succession amongst the various so called 'eligible' candidates that began with the shock defeat of the Vajpayee government in 2004 has only compounded and may even end up imploding the party, like its predecessor the Jan Sangh. During much of 2011 and 2012, when it was engulfed in internal chaos, the civil society led by Anna Hazare and later the Aam Admi Party of Arvind Kejriwal ended up acting as a responsible Opposition, criticizing the government on its failures. As the party was gaining some sort of momentum by cornering the UPA on the various corruption scams that have been unearthed in the past two years, the allegations of diverting illegal wealth into the shell companies of the Purti group against its president Nitin Gadkari have proved to be a major embarrassment, putting it on the back foot. The spectacular victory of Narendra Modi has landed the saffron outfit in a dilemma. After silencing his detractors, both inside the Sangh Parivar and outside, with a huge win, he is today, perhaps the strongest contender to lead the party in 2014. However, projecting Modi as the PM candidate may not go well with the allies in the NDA, especially the JD-U, which on multiple occasions has snubbed the CM of Gujarat. If the BJP plans to enter the fray under his leadership, it will, for sure have to give up even the wildest dreams of getting any support from parties like JD-U, BJD, TMC, SP, BSP and so on, which have a substantial Muslim vote base. Moreover, neither does it have any organizational presence nor does it have any bankable partners in the crucial states of Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu which send 140 odd members to the Lower House.

With the BJP in complete disarray, regional satraps are keen to grab the the anti-INC votes into their kitty. Realizing that every seat will increase their importance on the political stage during the great tamasha that we call government formation, they are going all out to impress the electorate. The Samajwadi Party (SP) is on a roll after its thumping victory in the last Vidhan Sabha polls and is expected to do well in 2014, in spite of young Akhilesh Yadav's 'mis-governance'. Though the Bhaujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) is down after the 2012 debacle, it is certainly not out and still has the potential to fight the SP tooth and nail. With the national parties lacking any sort of organization in Uttar Pradesh, M&M - Mulayam and Mayawati are almost certain to get anywhere between 45 to 60 seats, making them crucial for the formation of a stable government. In neighbouring Bihar, Nitesh Kumar's performance and mass appeal and a non-existing opposition is certain to help his party retain its tally. Also, the war of words between the leaders of the BJP and the JD-U, firstly over the support for Pranab in the Presidential polls and then regarding the candidature of Narendra Modi as the next PM means that all is not well in the NDA and Nitesh may be open to the idea of switching sides in case a special package is allocated to his state in the Union budget. Like in Bihar, Patnaik's excellent performance in Odisha is most likely to convert into votes for the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), a party which one can bet to bag around 15 seats, making it a prized possession for both fronts. Jayalalitha's AIADMK is on a upsurge and the differences between Alagiri and Stalin will go in its favour. Naidu's Telugu Desam, K Chandrashekar Rao's TRS and the newly launched YSR Congress may do well in Andhra whereas Mamata is expected to storm Bengal.

Thus, the stage is set and the race to run the 2014 Lok Sabha has begun. While it is true that the two major national parties might not be in the best of positions, the utopian idea of a non-Congress, non-BJP government - the Third front, the pinnacle of our multi-party democracy, may not become a reality any where in the near future. And to be frank, I believe it is good for the nation, as such a loose coalition of parties headed by selfish leaders, each trying to work only for his region, will ultimately be detrimental to national interests. Thus, in the coming months, both the major alliances will go the extra mile in wooing new partners, offering huge concessions in the process. On the other hand, the smaller parties who find themselves in a win-win situation would like to make the most of it, bargaining hard for a better deal. The coming year is a crucial one with as many as 10 states, mainly in the Hindi heartland and the North-east going to the polls. Major tectonic shifts are expected on the political stage which are definitely expected to have an impact on 2014. As the big elections come closer, expect unholy partnerships to be forged just for political benefit or existing ones broken for greener grass on the other side. No party is an untouchable anymore, irrespective of its ideology, especially if it can get the numbers. After all, as our netas say, there are no permanent friends or foes in politics.

For more on the 2014 General Elections

(1) The Fall of the Triumvirate (Link)

(2) The Double Edged Sword (Link)

(3) Reading Between the Lines (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Top News 
Source: TopNews - Congress and BJP vying for JMM's support (Link)

THE YEAR THAT WAS 2009 - PART I

SINGH IS KING, YET AGAIN

The biggest spectacle of the year 2009 was, beyond any doubt, the elections to the 15th Lok Sabha. The world's largest democracy elected its representatives to the Lower House of the Parliament between 16th April, 2009 and 13th May, 2009 with the aid of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) for the second time in a row. In spite of terror threats and calls for electoral boycott by the Maoists in many places, the Indian voters defied all odds and came out in large numbers to participate in an election which has been seen by many analyst as the fairest national elections to be held in the birthplace of democracy.

The trio of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi and youth icon Rahul Gandhi led the Indian National Congress and its allies to a remarkable electoral victory. With this victory, Manmohan Singh, who in 2004 became India's first Sikh Prime Minister also became the the first PM after Pandit Nehru to be re-elected for a consecutive term after completing a full 5 year term in office. The National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREG), the loan waiver to farmers coupled by the Mr. Clean image of Singh and the goodwill of Sonia meant that the Congress crossed the 200 mark on its own and the UPA fell just short of the half way mark.

Rahul Gandhi led the revival of the Congress in Uttar Pradesh where the party managed to win as many as 21 parliamentary seats and finished second in a four way electoral battle. The impressive figures of the Congress in UP dished all dreams of BSP supremo Mayawati to become the first Dalit PM of India. The Congress wave swept the key state of Andhra Pradesh in both, the state and the national elections. Charismatic CM Y S Rajashekar Reddy led the party to a comfortable majority in the Vidhan Soudha as he routed the TDP-TRS alliance and saw off the threat posed by Chiranjeevi's PRP. In fact, the party won 33 out of the 42 seats to the Lok Sabha from the state. The INC whitewashed the opposition in Delhi and Uttarakhand and won all but one seat in Haryana. Other states where the party outperformed all expectations included Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Punjab.

Not only the Congress but even its allies in the UPA had a lot to cheer for in these polls. Mamata Bannerjee achieved the impossible as she finally managed to breach the Left bastion of West Bengal. Didi won 19 seats and emerged as the second largest party in the ruling coalition. Also, beating all odds, the DMK got 18 seats in Tamil Nadu as Jayalalitha's AIADMK mustered just 9 seats in spite of its claims to carve a separate nation for Sri Lankan Tamils. However Sharad Pawar, who was seen as a potential Prime Ministerial candidate prior to the polls will be certainly disappointed as the NCP could send only 9 MPs to the Parliament.

The BJP's electoral slogan of 'Kushal Neta, Nirnayak Sarkar' found no takers as the party was reduced to a paltry 116 seats at the national level. The struggle for power within the party and lack of proper political organization before the elections meant that Lal Krishna Advani's last shot for the top spot ended in failure. Also the move to project Narendra Modi as the next PM candidate and calling Singh as a weak PM backfired for the party. However the real villain for the party was the Gandhi within their own ranks. Varun Gandhi's infamous communal speech at Pilibhit won him his constituency but ended up consolidating the Muslim vote in UP in the favour of the Congress. Although the BJP did well in Karnataka, Jharkhand, Bihar, Chattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh, its performance in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Assam was much below expectations. Besides, the party ended up in the fourth spot in the key state of Uttar Pradesh.

The only NDA leader who did well in the 2009 election was Nitish Kumar, the CM of Bihar. He managed to wipe off all opposition in the state and led the NDA to victory in 32 constituencies out of the total 40. BJP's oldest ally, the Shiv Sena managed to muster only 11 seats as its ideology was completely hijacked by Raj Thackeray's MNS. In fact Raj came back to haunt the BJP-SS combine and split the Marathi votes, thereby helping the Congress-NCP coalition to take Maharashtra for the third time in a row.

The biggest losers of these elections were the Left Parties. With their impregnable forts of Kerala and West Bengal being stormed, the Red brigade could only get 24 seats in these elections, a slump of 25 from the 59 seats they won the last time. Ironically for them, the move to withdraw support to the previous UPA government had clearly boomeranged on them. While the performance of other constituents of the Third Front like the BSP, TDP and AIADMK was pretty much average, the star among the Third Front leaders was Naveen Patnaik. The Orissa CM who dumped the NDA over the Left managed to win as many as 14 seats on his own and also came into power with a spectacular two-thirds majority in the state assembly.

The Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Lok Janshakti Party failed to reach sharing agreements with the Congress and decided to form a new front, hoping to be kingmakers after the election. Despite announcing support for the UPA, they only won 27 seats with SP winning only 20 odd seats, RJD reduced to only 4 and LJP failing to open its account.

On 22nd May, 2009, Manmohan Singh was sworn in as the Prime Minister at the Ashoka Hall of Rashtrapati Bhavan with the support of 322 members. As per convention, on 18th May, he had already submitted his resignation as the Prime Minister to President Pratibha Patil with a recommendation to dissolve the Council of Ministers. Former Finance Minister, P C Chidambaram was made the Home Minister whereas former Home Minister, Pranab Da was given the charge of the Finance Ministry. The former CM of Karnataka, S M Krishna was sworn in as the MEA , Veerappa Moily was given the charge of Law Ministry and Defense went to A K Anthony. Long time Congress loyalists, Anand Sharma (Commerce and Industry), Kapil Sibal (HRD), Murli Deora (Petroleum), Kamal Nath (Road) and Ghulam Nabi Azad (Power) were also accommodated in the cabinet. Among the allies, Mamata got the coveted Railway Ministry, Sharad Pawar retained the Agriculture Ministry and the DMK is represented by Azaghiri, A. Raja and Dayanidhi Maran among others.

The re-election of the UPA government to a second term is a clear indication of the fact that the Indian voter has matured over the years, in the sense that incumbency is no longer a big election issue if the people with power can deliver the goods. The results of the 15th Lok Sabha have re-affirmed the fact that while Hindutva and minority appeasement continue to be used by political parties as electoral issues, the core issue still remains - Development or as it is more commonly referred to in Indian politics as 'Roti, Kapda aur Makan'.

CHAOS WITHIN THE BJP

The BJP decided to confront the Manmohan Singh government on the issues of Governance, Development and Security as a part of its strategy to come back into power after five years of warming the Opposition benches. The electoral campaign of the saffron outfit projected its Prime Ministerial candidate, L K Advani as a strong leader who would make India safer if elected to power and condemned Singh as 'The Weakest Prime Minister in Indian History'.

The BJP's campaign faced its biggest pre-election controversy when the EC directed the District Magistrate of Pilibhit to lodge a criminal case against the BJP's candidate Varun Gandhi for his inflammatory speech against Muslims made on March 7, 2009. Varun pleaded not guilty and claimed that the voice in the tapes were not his. After reviewing the incident, the EC found Gandhi guilty of violating the model code of conduct by creating feeling of enmity and hatred between different communities and issued a recommendation the BJP to drop him from their list of candidates. However, the saffron outfit came out in support of Varun. Meanwhile the Mayawati government in Uttar Pradesh slapped the National Security Act (NSA) against the young leader and put him behind bars. Later the Supreme Court asked the UP government to revoke the Act.

Although Varun's outburst won him his constituency, it ended up polarizing the Muslim vote in favour of the Congress. The Congress won 200 odd seats in the elections with an amazing 21 seats coming from Uttar Pradesh. Also the party's move to counter the Rahul Gandhi factor by portraying Gujarat CM Narendra Modi as the next PM candidate was widely rejected by the electorate around the country. The BJP's tally of 116 seats in the Lower House presented a very sorry picture. Almost immediately, the non-RSS leaders of the party like Yashwant Sinha, Jaswant Singh and Arun Shourie called on the then president Rajnath Singh, a RSS favorite, to take moral responsibility for the electoral diaster and resign from his post.

The Chintan Baitak session of the BJP held in Shimla to asses the party’s debacle in the general elections and to strengthen its organization in the wake of the forthcoming state elections started off with a bang as senior party leader and former cabinet minister Jaswant Singh was expelled from the party. The decision came in the wake of the views expressed by Singh in his new book Jinnah : India, Independence and Partition in which he has lauded Mohammed Ali Jinnah and has blamed Nehru and Sardar Patel for India’s partition. 

Also, Rajnath Singh insisted on former Rajasthan CM Vasundararaje Scindia and the then CM of Uttarakhand, B C Khanduri to take responsibility for the party's rout in their respective states while he continued to remain in the office. Although, Khanduri agreed to the decision after some flip flops, Scindia refused to budge even as party veteran Advani was called in to mediate an amicable solution. Among Raje's demands include making her a general secretary at the national level and having an election to appoint the next Leader of Opposition in the Rajasthan Assembly, which by default, will be a Raje loyalist owing to the clout that the former royal holds in Rajsthan unit of the BJP.

Then, to make matters worse, the Liberhan Commission, the longest running inquiry by the Indian government submitted its report on the Demolition of the disputed site of Babri Masjid in Ayodhya after 48 extensions and 17 long years of running, to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. In November 2009, a day after a newspaper published the allegedly leaked contents of the report, the report was tabled in the Indian parliament by the Home Minister Chidambaram. Kalyan Singh, who was the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh during the mosque’s demolition, has come in for harsh criticism in the report. He is accused of posting bureaucrats and police officers who would stay silent during the mosque’s demolition in Ayodhya. Indicting the BJP government in Uttar Pradesh, the one-man commission said in its report: "Kalyan Singh's government was the essential component needed by the Sangh Parivar for its purposes. Kalyan Singh lived up to the expectations of the Parivar". Uma Bharti, Govindacharya and Shanker Singh Vaghela, all of whom were members of the BJP then, are held primarily responsible for the destruction of the mosque and the report says that they could have prevented the assault. Senior BJP leaders Atal Behari Vajpayee, Lal Krishna Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi are called 'pseudo-moderates'. The report holds them intellectually and ideologically responsible for the mosque’s destruction.

Like the National elections, the party's performance in the state elections was also far from satisfactory. The party won only 2 assembly seats in Andhra Pradesh, both coming from the Telangana region. In spite of accusing the Congress led governments at the Centre and in Maharashtra of being soft on terror, the BJP-SS alliance could not prevent the Cong-NCP alliance from winning a straight third term owing to the split in the Sena's traditional Marathi votes in the favour of the Raj Thackeray led MNS. The party finished fourth in the fight for power in Haryana as it won an insignificant 4 seats. When Orissa CM, Navin Patnaik broke way from the NDA many inside the party felt that he would require the help of the BJP to retain his seat as the CM of the state. However, in a triangular contest held in Orissa, Navin shocked everyone as he led the BJD-NCP-Left alliance to a two-thirds majority.

In December the saffron party came together to formally elect a new president in a bid to revive the party's fortune. In a move that clearly emphasized the sway that RSS holds in the BJP, its chief Mohan Bhagwat declared that the next president would be 'someone not from Delhi', a clear indication that he didn't want Advani aides like Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Venkaiah Naidu and Anant Kumar to hold the top job. Later, the BJP's Maharashtra chief, Nitin Gadkari succeeded Rajnath Singh as the President. Also, an era in Indian politics came to an end as Lal Krishna Advani stepped down as the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha and the vacated post went to close aide Sushma Swaraj.

The new president has a herculean task at his hand. The BJP has to clearly shun its pro Hindutva ideology and project itself as an inclusive party that stands for the development of all sections. Besides keeping the various warring factions at bay, he will have to develop a significant support base for the party amongst the youth. Also focus needs to be given to strengthen the part in the BIMARU states, especially UP where the party's fortunes have declined over the years.

INFLATION AND RECESSION HIT THE AAM AADMI

Although Prime Minister Manmohan Singh managed to lead the UPA into a second consecutive term, the principal opposition groups, namely the NDA and the Left Front managed to corner his government over the issue of soaring prices. A delayed monsoon added fuel to the fire as prices of essential commodities skyrocketed. Gradually the prices of daily products like sugar, vegetables and pulses reached an all time high level. The government tried to control the escalating prices by cracking down on hoarders and subsidizing essential products for the poor. Probably what did more damage to the government were the remarks expressed by many of Union ministers who claimed that the factors that led to price rise were beyond the control of the Centre. This clearly showed the inability and in many ways the lack of determination on the part of the government to get this situation under its control. The food price inflation in India soared to decade's highest level of 19.95 per cent in the first week of December.
While the poor were struggling to make their ends meet, the rich were feeling the heat of the Global meltdown. In 2009, the US economy was in recession, the biggest since the ‘Great Depression’ of 1929, and its tremors were also felt across the world markets, both big and small. The Indian outsourcing industry, which at then employed over 2 million people and is the principal driving force behind urbanization in India, was dealt a severe blow. Cutbacks, fewer benefits and job losses became the order of the day as even eminent companies struggled to remain afloat.

The Depression has, in many ways separated the extraordinary from the mediocre. As the world emerged from the clout of the recession, the manner in which the economies of the Asia-Pacific region avoided recession was appreciated all over the world. In fact, India recorded a 7.9 per cent rise in the GDP, thereby meeting market expectations and the stock market responded positively.

RED TERROR STRIKES

The year 2009 witnessed the outlawed Maoist take on an more aggressive approach towards the Indian Government. The Taliban style execution of Francis Induwar, Special Branch Inspector on 30th September was one of the innumerable acts of violence committed by them in the bygone year. The Naxals had earlier said that they would free Induwar if the government released Kobad Ghandy, Chattradhar Mahato, and Chandra Bhushan Yadav, three key Maoist leaders captured by security agencies from different parts of the country. Days after the government rejected this proposed swap, the Inspector's body was found on the Ranchi-Jamshedpur Highway. His head had been severed from his body. Near the Inspector's body, a note by the Naxals, attributing his death to 'police repression'. Among Induwar's colleagues, there's mourning mixed with anger. "We are ready to do our duty, but we need protection. In this atmosphere, how can we carry on working?" asked Ramsarekh Singh, Head, Jharkhand Police Association.

Naxalites struck across Jharkhand and Bihar a day before the states went to polls in the second phase of Lok Sabha elections. On 22nd April, the Naxals seized the Gomo-Mogulsarai BDM train near Hehegarha railway station at about 7:30 am and released it at 11:39 hours without harming any of the passengers. The train, with nine coaches, was packed to capacity with about 700 passengers on board and people even standing on the foot boards of the coaches," Railway PRO in Dhanbad, Amerendra Das said. As a move to secure the release of their leader Chattradhar Mahato, the People's Committee on Police Atrocities (PCPA) held hostage the Delhi bound, Bhubaneshwer Rajdhani Express in Midnapore, West Bengal on 27th October, 2009. Mahato who had been spearheading the agitation against alleged police atrocities, was nabbed from the Pirka region, near Lalgarh village. Although the train was later released, the manner in which the Naxals committed this offense brought to light the fact that Red Terror had become India's topmost internal security concern.

In an earlier development, the police and security forces in Lalgarh, Paschim Medinipur, West Bengal organized an anti-naxal operation to restore law and order in the area and flush out the Maoists, whom the government accused of inciting the tribals. The area of operation covered 18 police stations in the three Maoist affected districts of Paschim Medinipur, Bankura and Purulia. After some initial resistance from the Maoist side, the security forces were able to free the region from the rebels, atleast for the time being. Although the abortive bid to net elusive Maoist leader Kishenji in Lalgarh did not bear fruits, a senior police officer said several important materials were later seized and the operation was not a total failure.

As of 2009, Naxalites are active across approximately 220 districts in several states of India accounting for about 40 percent of India's geographical area. They are especially concentrated in an area known as the 'Red corridor', where they control 92,000 square kilometers. According to India's intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), 20,000 armed cadre Naxalites were operating apart from 50,000 regular cadres working in their various mass organizations and millions of sympathizers, and their growing influence prompted Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to declare them as the most serious internal threat to India's national security. The Naxalites are opposed by virtually all mainstream Indian political groups. In February 2009, Central government announced its plans for simultaneous, co-ordinated counter-operations in all Left-wing extremism-hit states like Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal, to plug all possible escape routes of Naxalites. As a result, there have been fewer casualties than in previous years, and the Naxalites have not been able to expand their influence. 

FLOODS PARALYZE SOUTH INDIA

Early October, 2009 saw the heavy floods inundate states of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh after days of torrential rains. Atleast 269 people lost their lives in floods that are said to be the most devastrating in the last century, in these parts of the country. Over 13 lakh people were affected in five districts of Andhra Pradesh alone following unprecedented floods in Krishna river basin. The floods isolated 350 villages, leaving millions homeless. Entire Kurnool city was surrounded by 10 feet water for nearly 3 days.

In Karnataka damage to crops and property is estimated to be in the region of Rs 10,000 crore. For the first time in 60 years that the perennially drought-prone districts of north Karnataka saw such flood fury. The worst affected by the downpour and floods were parts of Bijapur, Gulbarga and Raichur districts in Northern parts of the state through which flow the rivers Krishna and Tungabhadra along with their tributaries.

Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh governments started rescue and relief work on war footing with the help of the defence forces. The tales of people displaced by the massive flooding are heart-rending."Our entire village is under water. Even our relatives and friends have the same problem. We have no clue what to do," said one. 

SWINE FLU PANDEMIC

Soon after the outbreak of H1N1 virus in the United States and Mexico in March, the Government of India started screening people coming from the affected countries at airports for swine flu symptoms. The first case of the flu in India was found on the Hyderabad airport on 13th May, when a man traveling from US to India was found H1N1 positive. Subsequently, more confirmed cases were reported and as the rate of transmission of the flu increased in the beginning of August, with the first death due to swine flu in India in Pune, panic began to spread.

The only known drug to work against H1N1 (Tamiflu) was not sold in general medical stores, to prevent the virus from developing antibiotic resistance due to excessive use. The government feared that people would pop in pills for no reason, thereby making the virus resistant to its only known cure. The problem facing the state machinery was the fact that flu infected cases were coming from across the country. The first casualty was a 14-year-old girl, Riya Sheikh. The deaTh toll soon rose and on January 1, 2010 the Indian government reported there had been 967 deaths from swine flu in the country with Pune recording as many as 124 deaths and Bangalore coming in 2nd with 74 cases.

Generic version of Tamiflu (Oseltamivir) will now be available in Indian market, several months after the first swine flu attack. Natco Pharma and Strides Arcolabs have launched their generic version of Oseltamivir, Natflu and Starflu. These drugs will be available to the customers directly under prescription.

STATEHOOD FOR TELANGANA?

The state of Andhra Pradesh continued to be in the limelight all through the year 2009. In the state elections, then CM Y S Rajashekar Reddy led the Congress to a much deserved victory over the grand TDP-TRS alliance and Cheranjeevi's Praja Rajam Party. However, the Congress satrap couldn't live long to enjoy his hard earned victory as he met a tragic end in a helicopter crash in the Nallamala ranges. While the state had not yet recovered from the shocking demise of one of the brightest stars on the Indian political horizon, torrential floods inundated many parts along the River Krishna causing immense damage to life and property.

Ahead of the 2009 General Elections in India all the major parties in Andhra Pradesh supported the formation of Telangana but it soon faded into background owing to the various tragedies that hit the state. Then in December 2009, TRS president, K C Rao started a fast-unto-death demanding that the Congress party introduce a Telangana bill in the Parliament. Student organizations, mostly from the Osmania University, employee unions and various organizations joined the movement. Scores of people commited suicide in support of Telangana state. Student organizations planned a massive rally at state legislature on December10, Government warned that the rally does not have permission and deployed police troops though out Telangana. The decline of KCR's health contributed to a sense of urgency for the central government to take a decision on the issue of Telangana statehood.

On December 9, 2009, 11:30 PM, Mr. P C Chidambaram, Union Minister of Home Affairs announced that Indian government had started the process of forming a separate Telangana state and that a resolution would be introduced in Andhra Pradesh assembly for this soon. KCR ending his 11 day fast said from his hospital bed that this a true victory of the people of Telangana. The Central government asked Andhra Pradesh state government to pass of a resolution in this regard in the legislative assembly.

Telangana celebrated the central government decision while non-Telangana regions of Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions protested. Parties like the TDP and PRP soon backtracked from their pro-Telangan stance blaming the Congress of not taking them into confidence before the Home Minister's statement. Several members of Andhra Pradesh's legislature submitted resignations to protest the creation of the new state. As of 16 December, at least 147 legislators, including Praja Rajyam Founder Chiranjeevi and many Members of Parliament had resigned in protest of the Government's decision to carve out a new state of Telangana. 22 Ministers form the State Cabinet also submitted their resignation. To counter this 90 odd MLAs from the Telangan region, cutting across all party lines resigned as a pressure tactic.

At the heart of the Telangana agitation is the possesion of the city of Hyderabad. Geographically speaking, India's sixth largest city lies in the Telangana region of present day Andhra Pradesh. However many people from Rayalseema and coastal Andhra who have commercial interests in the IT city are opposing the formation of the new state as it would mean parting ways with the city of the Nizam. Also unlike Chandigarh, Hyderabad is located deep within the proposed Telangana and so the idea of a joint capital is out of the scene. On the contrary the pro-Telangana organizaions have taken a no-compromise attitude over the question of Hyderabad.

The formation of the new state, if and when, is the perfect scenario for India to reterospect on the policy of states based on linguistic terms. Ironically, the state of Andhra Pradesh was the first state to be formed on linguistic lines after a fast-unto-death by Potti Sri Ramaloo. The demand for a separate Telangana is based primarily on the neglect that it has suffered under successive state governments. While coastal Andhra and Rayalseema have become prosperous, the people of Telangana have for long complained about the step motherly treatment metted out to them. On the other hand, smaller states do not necessarily mean development. While states like Goa, Himachal and Uttarakhand are fast maching on the path towards progress, other newly carved states like Jharkhand and Chattisgarh have been engulfed by corruption and Maoist menace.

Also the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh will open a Pandora's box. Taking a cue from protestors in Hyderabad, the GNLF renewed their call for a separate state for the Gurkhas in Northern Bengal. Several trains were blocked in Nagpur to force the authorities to approve the formation of Vidarbha from Maharashtra. Also the UP CM Mayawati wrote to New Delhi asking the PM to split her state into three smaller states - Harit Pradesh, Purvanchal and Bundelkhand. 

MADHU KODA SCAM

On 10th Oct, 2009, former Jharkhand CM Madhu Koda was charged with laundering money worth over Rs. 4000 crores. In nationwide raids by the Enforcement Directorate, assets allegedly worth Rs. 4000 crore - almost a fifth of the annual budget of the state he once ruled - were unearthed. Among others, these assets were reported to include hotels and three companies in Mumbai, property in Kolkata, a hotel in Thailand, and a coal mine in Liberia. Koda, who earlier said that he was a 'poor tribal', has total assets worth over Rs 98 lakh, as per his disclosure with the Election Commission. However investigations showed that his assets include bank deposits, bonds, shares, other savings, two cars, jewellery and land. This alleged scam is said to be the second-largest scam uncovered in India. Minister of State for Home Ajay Maken said that the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) may be asked to probe this scam, in addition to Enforcement Directorate (ED) and the Income Tax Department. In the probes, it was found that Maoists received a 30% share of the 'Koda plunder'.

Koda's life reads like a rags-to-riches tale from Bollywood. His father forced him to give up college because there wasn't enough money and ordered the 'young Madhu to find a job to fend for the family'. A disillusioned Koda, who wanted to join the army , became a labourer instead in an iron mine at Gua. He lugged lumps of iron ore for a promised sum of Rs. 20.50 per day. Koda harboured memories of corruption and exploitation at the mines. "They would get our thumb impressions against payments of Rs.20.50 and would pay us Rs.16. It left an impression on me," he had told the media.

The counting for the Jharkhand Assembly polls were held on 23rd December 2009. Shibhu Soren's JMM emerged as the single largest party in the state that threw up a hung assembly. The Congress won 14 seats while its ally, Babulal Marandi's Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) added another 11. The NDA could get only 20 seats, a significant decline in its standings as compared to the last assembly. Ironically, the BJP in a bid to prevent the UPA from coming into power in yet another state, supported the same Shibhu Soren whom it once had labelled as 'tainted' when he was in the UPA. On 30th December, 2009 Soren was sworn in as the CM of Jharkahand for the third time. He took oath along with BJP and All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) presidents Raghubar Das and Sudesh Mahto.

SOURCES

1. www.andhraroundup.com
2. www.business-standard.com
3. www.green.in.msn.com
4. www.hindubusinessline.com
5. www.ibnlive.in.com
6. www.indianexpress.com
7. www.mynews.in
8. www.news.rediff.com
9. www.thaindian.com
10. www.rajalakshmiv.sulekha.com
11. www.thehindu.com
12. www.wikipedia.org
13. www.zeenews.com

( This is the first part of a three part article on the significant events of 2009 )