THE RACE FOR ALLIES

THE FIVE ALLIANCES WHICH COULD DECIDE WHO WINS 2014

The last time that the people voted for a single party government was way back in 1984 when the Indian National Congress won an unprecedented 414 seats due to the sympathy wave owing to the assassination of the PM Indira Gandhi. In fact, in every Lok Sabha elections since 1989, no party has been able to cross the half way mark on its own. The coalition era, characterized by the decline of the Congress, the inability of the BJP to penetrate into the southern and eastern parts of the country and the rise of regional aspirations is here to stay. There is nothing to indicate that the 2014 polls will be any way different. As such, the Congress and the BJP are going all out to woo new allies in a bid to strengthen their position. The elevation of Modi may have hurt the saffron outfit's chances of winning over friends but the BJP has managed to get back estranged leaders like Kalyan Singh and B S Yeddyurappa back into the party fold. At the same time, other regional player like the TDP and the YSR Congress in Andhra as well as the MDMK and the PMK in Tamil Nadu have been sending out feelers to the primary opposition. If there is one thing that the Congress is doing better than the BJP, at least for the time being is finding newer coalition partners. The grand old party is said to be in talks with the DMK in Tamil Nadu, the TRS in Andhra, the JD(U), the RJD and the LJP in Bihar, the AIUDF in Assam and the big daddy of them all, the BSP in Uttar Pradesh. Here is a look at five alliances which in my opinion could prove to be decisive in the upcoming General polls in my opinion.

(5) BJP's rainbow alliance in Tamil Nadu: When the BJP decided to declare the Gujarat CM as their PM nominee (Link) there was a feeling that the party will end up alienating itself in the big elections. However, the

PMK's Ramdoss and MDMK's Vaiko

party itself decided to take the risk as it hoped that the image of Modi as a strong, non corrupt leader will help it win the votes of the masses, besides galvanizing the party cadre. The gamble seems to have worked and the response that the BJP leader got at the Trichy rally in the state made it a sought after ally amongst the smaller Dravidian parties. At the same time, the break up of the Congress-DMK alliance has made the matters worse for both of them. Many had speculated that the AIADMK under Jaya would be a natural ally of the BJP considering her strong personal equations with Modi. However, Amma ruled out all talks of pre-poll alliance with any party, aware that a tally of over 30 seats would make her indispensable for the formation of a stable regime at the centre. Although the AIADMK has decided to go solo, MDMK's Vaiko has joined hands with the BJP. His outfit has pockets of influence in western and southern parts of Tamil Nadu. At the same time, PMK's Ramadoss which has support base amongst the Vaniyyar community is also keen to forge a partnership with the saffron party. The BJP is also trying to rope in Vijaykanth's DMDK in their front (Link). The problem here is that Ramadoss and Vijaykanth who both have political interests in northern parts of the state may not get along well. I know many may think that the BJP front may not get too many seats. Actually it would be great even if it manages to win about 3-5 seats. However, the thing to note here is that, considering that the BJP has negligible presence here, winning every single seat would be like a bonus.

(4) The Congress-JMM tie up in Jharkhand: One of the earliest pre poll alliance before the Lok Sabha polls came in July 2013 when the INC joined hands with Shibu Soren's JMM to end the impasse in Ranchi which

Hemant and Shibu Soren

was placed under the President's Rule. Under this agreement, Hemant Soren was sworn in as the ninth Chief Minister of the tribal state with support from the Congress, RJD and some independents. At the same time, a deal for fighting the big polls was stuck under which the INC will fight 10 seats whereas the JMM would field candidates from four places. While the state may send just fourteen MPs to the Parliament, the coalition may have a large impact on the results. To realize the importance of this tie-up, one has to understand that the political sphere in the state is highly fragmented and even a small swing of votes can lead to dramatic shifts. A look at the 2010 legislative assembly will help us in this regards. In this elections, both the BJP and the JMM won the highest number of seats, which was 18. The Congress and Babulal Marandi's JVM(P) won 13 and 11 seats respectively. Having joined hands, the INC-JMM tie-up will help consolidation of their votes. The last time the two came together in 2004 they won thirteen seats. In fact, the lone BJP MP from here was Marandi who has long left the party. Jharkhand is one state in central India where the BJP has to do more considering that its proposal for an alliance with the JVM(P) has been turned down by Marandi. The agreement is a win-win situation for both the INC and the Sorens; for the ailing Shibu, it is an opportunity to pass on the baton to his son. Having got the lion's share of seats, the Congress has reduced much of its dependence over the JMM which history shows, is not a reliable ally.

(3) The UPA in Bihar: Now moving from Jharkhand to neighboring Bihar, the divorce between the BJP and the JD(U) has opened a plethora of possibilities. The Namo wave is growing stronger, the way the

RJD's Lalu and LJP's Paswan

Gujarat CM continued with his Patna rally in spite of the bomb blast has further added to his popularity. As such, it is but natural for the Congress to hunt for new allies in the state. With the UPA facing anti-incumbency and the party having a weak organization here in Patna, it seems to be its only chance. Ram Vilas Paswan of the LJP who drew a blank in the last Parliamentary polls has already expressed his desire to fight the polls in alliance with the INC. Now the big question is whether the third partner here will be Nitish's JD(U) or Lalu Yadav's RJD. Some time back, Rahul Gandhi had asked Nitish to dump the BJP and join the UPA for protecting the 'secular' traditions of the country. Considering Kumar's clean image and his development work, allying with him might be a good option. At the same time, the INC is aware that the CM's plummeting ratings and the anti-incumbency factor may force it to rethink. On the other hand, RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav who has come out of a small stint in jail in the multi-crore Fodder scam (Link) is aiming to use the upcoming polls as an opportunity to resurrect his political fortunes. The issue of allying with Lalu has its own set of problems. The corruption charges against the former CM may hurt the party's prospects here. The last time the three parties i.e. the INC, the RJD and the LJP came together in 2004, they swept the polls, winning 29 out of the 40 seats. However, at this juncture, like the BJP alliance in Tamil Nadu, every seat that the UPA wins here will make it more difficult for Modi to become the PM.

(2) The Ruling Alliances have the edge in Punjab and Kerala: Now I am sticking my neck out and saying that the ruling coalitions in the states of Punjab and Kerala may sweep the polls in their respective states. The Akali-BJP

The Badals

combine did the impossible in 2012 when it romped to power, the first time that an incumbent government had been voted back to power in decades in the northern state. In the last two years, the Badals have done nothing grossly wrong so as to indicate that they is any large scale dissatisfaction with them. The failure of the Manpreet Badal led PPP to make an impact and the high inflation rates will benefit the SAD. For the BJP, it has managed to placate Amritsar MP Navjot Singh Sidhu who was reportedly unhappy with the central leadership for being sidelined. In 2009, the INC grabbed 8 seats here, largely owing to the popularity of the PM Manmohan Singh. With Singh having announced his retirement, this elections may well see the ruling

The LDF

combine winning about 10 seats from here. On similar lines, the United Democratic Front (UDF) government in Kerala is expected to do exceeding well as per the CNN IBN-Lok Niti prediction. According to the survey, it may win anywhere between 12 to 18 seats, reducing the Left Front to single digits. Such a result may have a significant impact on the Third Front. The Communists have been the ones who have time and again called for a non-Congress, non-BJP government in Delhi. However, in 2014, they may find it extremely difficult to even win more than 20 seats. In Bengal, Mamata's TMC is believed to be sweeping the elections. At this time, the comrades only hope was to do well in their southern bastion. If they fail to win over 10 seats here, the Reds may have absolutely no significance whatsoever in the next Lok Sabha.

(1) The Maha Yuti in Maharashtra: The Congress along with its ally, Sharad Powar's NCP has been in power in Mumbai for three consecutive terms. Besides facing anti-incumbency both in the state as well as at

The Maha Yuti

the Centre, the allegations of corruption in the Adarsh society scam has tainted the image of the local regime. In fact, in the last five years, the Congress has changed three Chief Ministers here. At the same time, the NCP is having troubles of its own (Link). It is being reported that the traditional NCP vote bank, the Marathas of Western Maharashtra are exploring other options. At the same time, the Irrigation scam in which allegations were made against Ajith Powar has further dented its image. While the ruling combine is struggling, the Opposition in the state is united and stronger than ever before. Following the death of its supremo Balasaheb, the Shiv Sena under Uddhav is on the rise. The factionalism within the BJP which had split into two camps here, one led by Gopinath Munde and the other by Nitin Gadkari following the death of Pramod Mahajan is now a thing of the past. The Athavale led Republican Party of India will help the front gather Dalit votes. Now Raju Shetty led Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatan has also joined hands with them. The only consolation for the INC-NCP regime is that Raj Thackeray led MNS may led to the split in the traditional Marathi votes, especially in Mumbai. However, it is believed that the BJP is planning to mend this loophole. While bringing the two Senas together may not be possible, the saffron outfit may enter a strategic alliance with Raj under which they will nominate weak leaders in each other's bastion. The Maha Yuti as it is called may even win over 30 seats of the 48 in Maharashtra.

IMAGES 

(1) PMK's Ramdoss and MDMK's Vaiko
Original: The Hindu - PMK, MDMK not to contest bypoll (Link)

(2) Hemant and Shibu Soren
Original: Jharkhand State News - Hemant with his father Shibu Soren to fly to Delhi, efforts to form government on (Link)

(3) RJD's Lalu and LJP's Paswan
Original: Indian Express - Lalu-Paswan deal not acceptable, says Congress (Link)

(4) The Badals
Original: The Tribune - SAD takes recourse to Panthic agenda (Link)

(5) The UDF
Original: The UDF (Link)

(6) The Maha Yuti
Original: Maha Yuti seals seat-sharing pact (Link)

AN ALLY IN NEED IS AN ALLY INDEED

THE RACE FOR 2014 IS ON

Courtesy: Top News

As the Indian National Congress (INC) think tank went into a hurdle for its two day Chintan Shivir in Jaipur, several of its top leaders have come out in the open about the need for new allies if the 'Grand Old Party of India' wants to come back to power for a third straight term. While the wily Finance Minister Chidambaram has said that it is very difficult for any party to gain an absolute majority on its own, the outspoken Rural Development Minister Jairam Ramesh hit the nail on its head when he told media persons that the INC may need the help of newer partners to form the next government. With many more leaders including Vayalar Ravi and P C Chako echoing Ramesh's line, one should not be surprised if the Congress sends out overtures to other 'like-minded' parties in the near future like the Janata Dal-United (JD-U), presently a constituent of the Opposition NDA or the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), its main adversary in the state of Odisha. As the Congress brain stormed the pros and cons of fighting polls in coalition with other regional outfits, Lalu Prasad Yadav, the original 'joker' of Indian politics, the tag which I believe, he has lost to Congress General Secretary Digvijaya Singh in the last few years, has sounded the electoral bugle and declared the next Lok Sabha polls to be a straight contest between the 'Secular' Congress-led UPA and the 'Communal' BJP-led NDA.

Remember Shri Lalu Prasad Yadav - the former CM of Bihar and the chief of the RJD who had famously declared that one day he would rule the nasion (nation) and serve the pipool (people) on NDTV's Follow the Leader show way back in 2004 when he was a force to reckon with. Speaking to the press in Patna, the former Railway Minister has ruled out the Third Front of being a serious contender for the 2014 General Elections by saying that it will be a two-way contest between the 'Secular' compartment and the 'Communal' compartment. After his party's shameful performance in the 2009, during which he formed the Fourth Front after seat sharing talks with the Congress failed and the near complete rout in the last Bihar assembly polls, the cunning Lalu has voluntarily decided to be a part of the UPA's campaign in its quest for a hat trick of wins and in the process, revive his own political career, which has taken a downward plunge in the last decade. The OBC leader's words reminds me of former US President George Bush's 'You are either with us, or against us' speech after the horrific 9/11 attacks where he gave a clarion call to the leaders around the world to unite, behind America of course, to weed out terror from the face of the Earth. By trying to rake up the 'pseudo secular versus pro-Hindutva' debate, Yadav is acting as a dalal for the ruling party, hopeful that the work done now will reap in benefits in the form of plum ministerial posts in the third installation of UPA.

The precarious situation that the Congress finds itself in, may explain the sudden spurge in the scouting for newer friends. Anti-incumbency apart, the unending lists of scams, high inflation, policy paralysis and more importantly, the lack of a proper vision to take the country forward will make it extremely difficult for the party to even come close to the 200 mark. In fact, after Mamata, who was having an on-off relationship with the government dumped it some time ago, the Manmohan regime is surviving on the outside support of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP). While the government is struggling, its allies in the UPA are doing even worse. The infamous 2G scam and war of succession in the DMK will negatively impact its tally; there is nothing to indicate that NCP may do outstandingly well; other outfits like the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) or the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (NC) will not cross the two digit mark. Besides, Jaganmohan Reddy's revolt and the indecisiveness over the Telangana issue will trim its prospects in a state that has sent the maximum number of MPs in both versions of the UPA. Aware of the multiple problems that plague it today, Congressmen are trying hard to woo other regional parties into its fold. The Janata Dal-United (JD-U) and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) whom political pundits predict to sweep Parliamentary seats on their home turf are high on its list of prospective pals with which it can enter into electoral agreements. Special economic soaps for Bihar and Odisha in the 2013 Union budgets may be one of the many concessions that Congress may offer in return of support.

Sadly for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), it is still to put its house in order to pose any threat to the ruling combine. The battle for succession amongst the various so called 'eligible' candidates that began with the shock defeat of the Vajpayee government in 2004 has only compounded and may even end up imploding the party, like its predecessor the Jan Sangh. During much of 2011 and 2012, when it was engulfed in internal chaos, the civil society led by Anna Hazare and later the Aam Admi Party of Arvind Kejriwal ended up acting as a responsible Opposition, criticizing the government on its failures. As the party was gaining some sort of momentum by cornering the UPA on the various corruption scams that have been unearthed in the past two years, the allegations of diverting illegal wealth into the shell companies of the Purti group against its president Nitin Gadkari have proved to be a major embarrassment, putting it on the back foot. The spectacular victory of Narendra Modi has landed the saffron outfit in a dilemma. After silencing his detractors, both inside the Sangh Parivar and outside, with a huge win, he is today, perhaps the strongest contender to lead the party in 2014. However, projecting Modi as the PM candidate may not go well with the allies in the NDA, especially the JD-U, which on multiple occasions has snubbed the CM of Gujarat. If the BJP plans to enter the fray under his leadership, it will, for sure have to give up even the wildest dreams of getting any support from parties like JD-U, BJD, TMC, SP, BSP and so on, which have a substantial Muslim vote base. Moreover, neither does it have any organizational presence nor does it have any bankable partners in the crucial states of Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu which send 140 odd members to the Lower House.

With the BJP in complete disarray, regional satraps are keen to grab the the anti-INC votes into their kitty. Realizing that every seat will increase their importance on the political stage during the great tamasha that we call government formation, they are going all out to impress the electorate. The Samajwadi Party (SP) is on a roll after its thumping victory in the last Vidhan Sabha polls and is expected to do well in 2014, in spite of young Akhilesh Yadav's 'mis-governance'. Though the Bhaujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) is down after the 2012 debacle, it is certainly not out and still has the potential to fight the SP tooth and nail. With the national parties lacking any sort of organization in Uttar Pradesh, M&M - Mulayam and Mayawati are almost certain to get anywhere between 45 to 60 seats, making them crucial for the formation of a stable government. In neighbouring Bihar, Nitesh Kumar's performance and mass appeal and a non-existing opposition is certain to help his party retain its tally. Also, the war of words between the leaders of the BJP and the JD-U, firstly over the support for Pranab in the Presidential polls and then regarding the candidature of Narendra Modi as the next PM means that all is not well in the NDA and Nitesh may be open to the idea of switching sides in case a special package is allocated to his state in the Union budget. Like in Bihar, Patnaik's excellent performance in Odisha is most likely to convert into votes for the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), a party which one can bet to bag around 15 seats, making it a prized possession for both fronts. Jayalalitha's AIADMK is on a upsurge and the differences between Alagiri and Stalin will go in its favour. Naidu's Telugu Desam, K Chandrashekar Rao's TRS and the newly launched YSR Congress may do well in Andhra whereas Mamata is expected to storm Bengal.

Thus, the stage is set and the race to run the 2014 Lok Sabha has begun. While it is true that the two major national parties might not be in the best of positions, the utopian idea of a non-Congress, non-BJP government - the Third front, the pinnacle of our multi-party democracy, may not become a reality any where in the near future. And to be frank, I believe it is good for the nation, as such a loose coalition of parties headed by selfish leaders, each trying to work only for his region, will ultimately be detrimental to national interests. Thus, in the coming months, both the major alliances will go the extra mile in wooing new partners, offering huge concessions in the process. On the other hand, the smaller parties who find themselves in a win-win situation would like to make the most of it, bargaining hard for a better deal. The coming year is a crucial one with as many as 10 states, mainly in the Hindi heartland and the North-east going to the polls. Major tectonic shifts are expected on the political stage which are definitely expected to have an impact on 2014. As the big elections come closer, expect unholy partnerships to be forged just for political benefit or existing ones broken for greener grass on the other side. No party is an untouchable anymore, irrespective of its ideology, especially if it can get the numbers. After all, as our netas say, there are no permanent friends or foes in politics.

For more on the 2014 General Elections

(1) The Fall of the Triumvirate (Link)

(2) The Double Edged Sword (Link)

(3) Reading Between the Lines (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Top News 
Source: TopNews - Congress and BJP vying for JMM's support (Link)