RIOTS IN UP AND ELECTIONS 2014 - Part II

HOW THE RIOTS IN WESTERN UP WILL AFFECT THE FORTUNES OF PARTIES

Catch 22 situation: Yes, that is precisely the situation that Congress finds itself in Uttar Pradesh. In 2009, following Varun Gandhi's communal speech in his constituency of Pilhibhit, the Congress surpassed all expectations winning 21 seats after minority votes swung in its favor. Back then, it was heralded as the revival of the grand old party in the country's most populous state with party leaders

Rahul meeting a Jat delegation in Delhi

and workers crediting Rahul Baba for the miracle. Putting behind the disaster in Bihar in 2010, the INC, buoyed by its performance in the national polls, made its crown prince the face of its campaign here in 2012. Probably, confident of a good show following the hype around him in the media, Rahul Gandhi even tore the manifesto of the Samajwadi Party during a rally. However, it was Akhilesh and his outfit which walked away with the crown as the INC struggled to reach a paltry figure of 28. Though the Nehru-Gandhi bastions may be safe for the time being, there is absolutely no indication that the Congress may do well in 2014 polls in UP. As far as the western areas of the state are concerned, the conviction of its face in this region - Rasheed Masood for fraudulently nominating candidates during his tenure as the Union Health minister in 1990 is a big blow. The minority leader had quit the SP to join the INC in 2011 after a fall out with Azam Khan. The Congress' hopes of doing well here by allying with Ajit Singh's RLD too has been hit following the riots. As such, some in the party believe that they may do well if they discontinue the alliance with Singh and go all alone. What is adding to its woes is the fact that Jats seem to be shifting towards the BJP after it projected Modi as its PM candidate. The visit of the PM Dr Singh, the UPA Chairperson Mrs Gandhi and her son Rahul to relief camps to 'assess' the situation is nothing but a publicity stunt, with an eye on the national elections. Meanwhile, in a bid to attract minority votes into its fold, Congress leader Rashid Alvi has criticized the SP government of failing to protect the Muslims and calling the riots here, worse than the ones in Gujarat. Reservation for the Jat community, something that they are demanding for some time now, will tilt the balance in its favor.

The right platform: For a party that rose on to national politics following the demolition of the Babri Masjid in 1992, it is surprising that the BJP is in dire straits in its former bastion. Even in 2012, its performance under Hindutva icon Uma Bharati has been disappointing. However, on the eve of the

BJP President Rajnath Singh with Modi

General Elections, things seem to be finally going the saffron outfit's way. The nomination of tainted leader Narendra Modi as its PM nominee has galvanized the cadre. Aware that UP will be the key if he wants to occupy the top post, Modi has deputed his trusted aide - Amit Shah who has been accused of his role in the infamous Godhra riots in 2002, to manage his campaign in the state. In what was a clear case of raising the communal agenda, Shah paid a visit to the Ram Janmabhoomi site in Ayodhya, reiterating his party's stand to construct a Ram temple there. The crackdown by the SP government on the Ayodhya Yatra organized by the VHP, a constituent of the Sangh Parivar has been criticized by the party's top leadership. And a few months later, the riots in Muzaffarnagar has given another opportunity to the party to win votes. Although the state government has slapped cases against two of its MLAs - Suresh Rana and Sangeet Som under the stringent National Security Act (NSA) for whipping up communal flares, the party has in fact, felicitated them. If reports coming from the region are to be believed, the Jats are moving towards the BJP, impressed by the charisma of its leader, Mr Modi. Such a shift will be a major boost to the party. For the Gujarat CM who his known for his brash style of politics, the communal violence in Muzaffarnagar may propel him to New Delhi, similar to the incidents in Godhra back in 2002, which made him the most popular leader in Gujarat.

The sleeping giant: In 2007, Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) supremo beat all odds to script a fairy tale victory by crossing the half way mark on its own, courtesy 'Social Engineering'. However, after completing her five year term, which was marked by brazen corruption and shameless self

BSP supremo Mayawati

glorification, Behenji was routed by her bete noire - SP's Mulayum Singh in the next state polls. The sly vixen that she is, Mayawati kept a low profile following the electoral drubbing. Like a python waiting for the prey to walk into the trap, she waited all along for the young Akhilesh to falter. With the SP government failing to deliver on all fronts in the last two years, the BSP will try to maximize its poll prospects by attacking the regime for its failure to control the riots. With the SP and the BSP being the two main political parties in the state, the mistakes made by one generally helps the other. As such, it should not be surprising if Mayawati finishes first in the four way contest for Uttar Pradesh during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The BSP leader has always nurtured prime ministerial ambitions; you can expect her to go all out against the Yadav regime in the coming months. Another weapon that Mayawati has in her arsenal is, as mentioned earlier - Social Engineering. Like in 2007 when she romped home to power after weaving together the Dalit-Brahmin alliance, Maya may do exceedingly well in western UP if she can chose the right candidates.

For the previous post on this topic, click here (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Rahul meeting a Jat delegation in Delhi

Source: Indian National Congress - Official Website (Link)

(2) BJP President with Modi

Source: BJP - Official Website (Link)

(3) BSP supremo Mayawati
Source: The Hindu - Mayawati sees SP-BJP conspiracy (Link)

RIOTS IN UP AND ELECTIONS 2014 - Part I

HOW THE RIOTS IN WESTERN UP WILL AFFECT THE FORTUNES OF PARTIES

Though the riots that took place in parts of western Uttar Pradesh in August last year are a blot on the secular credentials of our nation, for our political parties who seem to be least bothered by the suffering of the people, it is just another opportunity to score brownie points over their rivals. Instead of trying to bring communities together and eliminate differences, outfits are adding smoke to the fire by openly taking sides with an eye on the upcoming General Elections scheduled for May this year. With Uttar Pradesh sending 80 MPs to the Parliament - the largest amongst all states, it is said that the road to New Delhi passes via Lucknow. As such, it should hardly be surprising that our leaders can pull off even the dirtiest of all tricks to come to power, even if it means that some innocent lives are lost or thousands are displaced from their homes. While some believed that the ascend of the young Akhilesh Yadav in March 2012 would usher in a new kind of politics in our most populous state, his innumerable failures in the last year and a half have proved even his most die-hard fans, if they exist, wrong.

The complete collapse of the administration during the riots and its inability to provide basic facilities in relief camps has drawn a lot of flake from the Opposition as well as social groups. While he was quick to suspend the honest IAS officer Durga Shakti Nagpal for whipping up communal sentiments by demolishing a compound wall of a mosque - a charge that has been refuted even by the people affected by this, the callousness that his regime displayed in restoring law and order is an indication, perhaps that the young Turk intends to carry forward his father's legacy of caste based and religion based politics.Though younger Yadav deserves all the criticism that he is getting, other parties can not wash their hands off it. Reports indicated that local leaders with affiliation to the BJP, the Congress as well as the BSP played a key role in whipping up communal sentiments. Finally, after the officials succeeding in stopping the violence, the high profile visits by political leaders including RLD's Arjun Singh,  the triumvirate of the Congress and the 'funniest' of all, that of the recently jailed Lalu Yadav of the RJD is nothing but another gimmick to cash in on the situation. As the big battle for Delhi is just months away, here is my take on how the events in Muzaffaranagar will affect the poll prospects of the different stake holders.

The biggest loser: While it is difficult to predict who will derive maximum 'benefit' from this ghastly tragedy, it seems that former PM Charan Singh's son and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) supremo Chaudhary Arjun Singh will be the one licking the wounds post the Lok Sabha polls. Though he has

RLD supremo Ajit Singh

always been over shadowed by the more vociferous and charismatic Mulayum Singh and Mayawati in the state politics, there is no doubt that Singh is one of the most clever politicians in the Hindi heartland. While his party may not boast of big numbers, his remarkable political acumen, his popularity in Western UP and the knack to ally with the right partners make him a prominent player in Lucknow. However, the last two years have not been a good one for either him or his party. In the 2012 state assembly polls, in spite of a pre-poll tie up with the much hyped Congress, the party dropped one seat to finish at a lowly 9 seats. Though the heir apparent and MP Jayant won the Mathura constituency, heavyweights like Baba Hardev Singh and Haji Yakub Qureshi had to bite the dust. The role of Singh who is serving as the Civil Aviation minister in the national cabinet, in pushing through the Jet-Etihad deal has raised many eyebrows. At a time when things are not going his way, the rift between the Jats and the Muslims - the traditional vote bank of the RLD following the riots may badly affect its performance, rendering it insignificant in the post poll scenario. With even the Congress re-thinking its alliance with Singh's outfit ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, the picture for Chaudhary looks gloomy.

A major blow: In March 2012, the wily Mulayum Singh Yadav took a big gamble by placing his son Akhilesh on the CM's chair. However, those who follow Indian politics know that anything that UP strong man does has a political motive behind it. By offering the post to his son, he was checking the ambitions of other big leaders - his brother Ram Gopal Yadav and the party's minority face Azam Khan. Having swept UP and after being elevated to the status of 'Netaji' by the party cadre, Singh

From left: Azam Khan, Mulayum Singh and Akhilesh

who was confident of an excellent performance in 2014 was hoping to play the King-Maker at the Centre while his son ruled from Lucknow. However, for once, his plan has backfired or at least it seems so as of now. Akhilesh's incompetency and misgovernance has led to a wave of anti-incumbency within two years of his party's outstanding results in the last state polls. The mishandling of the situation in Muzaffarnagar has alienated the Muslims - the community which, along with the Yadavs is the core vote bank of the Samajwadi Party (SP). Meanwhile, party leader Azam Khan who shares an uneasy relationship with Mulayum has been accused by many in the riot hit Muzaffarnagar district of 'orchestrating' the violence and his effigies have been burnt in several places. The only reason why I think that RLD will be the bigger loser as compared to its former ally the SP is the fact that the latter may still do well in case the Yadavs still stick with it. Though he has himself tried to maintain the moral high ground by criticizing the state government, Singh should realize that instead of such gimmicks, he must take his son to task and concentrate on improving the administration in the state. In 2009, the gravitation of a section of Muslims towards the Congress damaged the SP's performance, reducing it to a mere 23 seats. With so much negative publicity surrounding the riots, the party is under fire from all corners including former friends Ajit Singh and Lalu Yadav. However, one can never write the Pehalvan off; you never know when the master politician can pull off a surprise ahead of the big polls.

For the next post on this topic, click here (Link)

IMAGES 

(1) RLD supremo Ajit Singh
Source: Rashtriya Lok Dal - Official Website (Link)

(2) From left: Azam Khan, Mulayum Singh and Akhilesh
Source: Samajwadi Party - Official Website (Link)