ONE BIG, HAPPY FAMILY?

WILL THE REGIONAL BRIGADE SURVIVE

Janata Parivar 

Could this be 'Avengers' moment of Indian politics? Much like the movie series wherein several superheroes from the Marvel Comic world come together with the noble aim of saving the world from evil forces, last week, heads of six regional parties who are no less than 'superheroes' in the eyes of their followers joined hands to resurrect the erstwhile Janata Parivar, decades after the party splintered into numerous factions on account of personal rivalry, jealousy and ego hassles between its leadership. Of course, while they may claim that the reason for their coming together is to stop the rise of the 'Fascist' forces (read BJP), there is no doubt that the satraps, who played a key role in the formation of successive regimes in the Coalition Era are fighting for their political survival after being jolted in the General Elections 2014 when the Modi wave broke the traditional barriers of caste and region, something that these leaders and their parties usually thrive upon.

Whatever may be the reason for this realignment of political forces on the political spectrum, what is certain is that merger of the six outfits - the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Janata Dal - United (JD-U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Janata Dal - Secular (JD-S), the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Samajwadi Janata Party (SJP) is all set to have major implications in the years to come, provided these factions stay together which in itself is going to be an herculean task. Though the modalities are being worked upon by a six member committee, former Uttar Pradesh CM and SP supremo Mulayum Singh Yadav has been named as the chief of the Janata Party in its new avtaar.

From the outside, the merger might not sound as 'such a big deal'. After all, the six parties together have 15 MPs in the Lower House of the Parliament and are in no position to stall reforms or counter the government that has a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha. Most of these old warhorses are in the twilight of their political careers with a majority of them being a mere shadow of what they were in their heyday. Besides, the three regional players who withstood the Modi juggernaut namely Jayalalithaa of the AIADMK, Mamata Bannerjee of the TMC and Navin Patnaik of the BJD have kept a safe distance from this new political entity. Thus the influence of the new look Janata Parivar is restricted to UP and Bihar apart from marginal presence in Haryana and Karnataka.

While the regional satraps may still be licking the wounds that they suffered in the May 2014 polls, writing off the new front would be a foolish decision. With the Modi government yet to fulfill most of the promises it made to the public during the course of the electoral campaign, the merger could help consolidate the anti-Modi or anti-BJP vote bank. Considering that many of these leaders including Mulayum Singh, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav have a solid Dalit - Muslim support base, the new front is all set to give tough electoral challenge to a new resurgent BJP ahead of the prestigious Bihar polls which is scheduled later this year. In fact, even in the by-polls held in Bihar and UP last year, the regional parties put up a formidable show against the saffron camp. Buoyed by these results and keen to regain lost ground, the merger will help strengthen the Opposition benches which looks scattered for the time being. Additionally, the party now has 30 MPs in the Rajya Sabha which is nearly half the number that the NDA has as of now, making it a force to reckon with in the Upper House.

The success of the Janata Parivar and its future will largely depend on the results of the Bihar Polls. A victory for the front will be a mega boost for the leadership and will completely stop the Modi bandwagon which received a jolt in the Delhi elections. In that scenario, more regional players would be keen in joining hands with the party either by the way of merger or alliance. The Congress and the Left parties who too are in no situation to take on the BJP at present would be interested in dealing with the Mualyum led party. On the other hand, a defeat at the hands of the BJP though could well bring down the curtains on the Parivar, months after it was formed.

The real threat for the JP is from within; will the Yadavs, the Kumars and the Chautalas bury their bitter past and move on, rather move on as a team? Can Mulayum whose hopes of becoming the PM were dashed by Lalu, ever be able to trust the latter? Can Lalu and Nitish ever be friends? After all, they would call each other all sorts of names till about an year ago, isn't it? Though we do not have any concrete answers to any of questions, what we can be sure of is that the revival of the Janata Parivar has only made Indian politics in general and Bihar polls in particular more interesting.

FRIENDS..... AGAIN

THE IMPACT OF THE REGROUPING OF THE 'SOCIALISTS' ON INDIAN POLITY

Earlier this week, the various fragments of the erstwhile Janata Dal who were literally obliterated in the May Lok Sabha polls decided to join hands in a bid to save their political careers and form a united front against the so-called communal forces led by Modi and a resurgent BJP while being at an arm's length from the Congress which is still battling anti-incumbency in spite of being out of power for over six months. After having played a key role in the formation of successive governments at the Centre for over two decades, these regional satraps found themselves rendered 'political insignificant' after the saffron outfit crossed the halfway mark on its own earlier this year. The Samajwadi Party (SP) which won a decisive mandate in 2012 polls in Uttar Pradesh could not win a single seat outside its family fiefdom as Amit Shah scripted a fairy tale victory for his party in the northern state. The then Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, the self-proclaimed 'upholder' of India's secular ideals was given a mega jolt even as Lalu's much hyped 'comeback' was derailed by Sushil Kumar Modi and his new allies - LJP's Paswan and RSLP's Kushwaha. The misery of other 'former' strongmen namely Deve Gowda and Om Prakash Chautala only compounded further. Now that these 'wise men' of Indian politics have left behind their past differences and agreed to work together, let us for moment ponder as to what implication such a union will have on the politics of the country in the near future.

No prices for guessing as to who benefits the most out of this move. The results of the Bihar by-polls have proved that the only way to effectively counter the Modi-Shah bandwagon is to cobble up coalitions keeping aside bitter rivalries and forgetting ideologies (read 'unholy' alliances). With the state elections scheduled next year, the likes of Nitish, Lalu and Sharad Yadav have to ensure that the anti-BJP vote does not split and the best way to bring together the Maha Dalits, the Yadavs and the Muslims is to revive the Janata Parivaar.

With many expecting Modi to be at the helm of affairs for a long innings, it just makes sense for the regional bigwigs to stick together or risk being out of 'business'. At the same time, many are doubting whether the new outfit could sustain itself; after all, each of these men has a big ego. Moreover, at various times in the past, they have fought and hurled the choicest abuses on each other. Remember those days in the mid 90s when Lalu thwarted Mulayum's dreams of becoming the PM. Perhaps, the biggest hurdle for them will be make sure that they continue to remain united. For the time being, the SP chief is all set to be the leader of the new party; not only does his party have the maximum number of MPs in the Parliament, it also continues to remain in power in UP.

For the first time in many, many years, the prospects of a non-Congress, non-BJP front seem to be more likely than ever. This latest endeavor is different from the Third Front in the sense that all these satraps will now (hopefully) fight under a unified leadership and a common symbol. The BJP certainly has reasons to worry as it makes its task in Bihar all the more difficult. And then, there is the fear of consolidation of the secular votes in the upcoming elections. The saffron outfit has to reconsider its decision of further alienating its allies like the Akalis and the Shiv Sena. The BJP cannot afford to act 'haughty' and 'mistreat' its partners in the NDA, an accusation that many have levied against it in the recent past.

At least the BJP is in power and at present has the arsenal to see off this threat. Spare a thought for the Congress. As if the fact that it is at a historic low and is being led by Rahul Gandhi is not enough, this new formation could relegate the INC to the third position. With the likes of Yadavs and Kumar on the same platform, there is a high probability that the Muslim voters will gravitate away from it, further alienating the grand old party. At a time when the party is desperate to find strong regional allies to take on the government, this new development will reduce its options. Meanwhile, the numbers also gives these leaders more bargaining power in dealing with the Congress.

Lastly, what does this development mean for other political parties in India. The Communists are grinning as they have always been advocating for a strong front consisting of regional players. On the other hand, the three big satraps viz Mamta, Jaya and Patnaik who have managed to beat the saffronists in their backyard are looking at this development very closely. The revival of the Janata Dal (JD) opens a new set of opportunities for them; they will now have three alternatives in the future and will be in a good position to play hard ball. Sharad Pawar who broke his alliance with the Congress just before the Maharashtra state polls too has welcomed this move. The JD will like to get him on board. Ditto with Ajit Singh who was washed out in the Union polls; though he may have his differences with the Chautalas, convincing him to join the front, considering his present political fortunes will be easy. Frankly, if the leaders do manage to win Bihar, I will not be surprised if some of the disgruntled sections within the NDA like the Akalis and Ram Vials Paswan or for that matter, Mayawati decides to do business with the new front. A host of parties including the PDP, the JMM, the TRS, the AIUDF and the AIMIM could be open to work with the JD while resisting a direct merger. In the south, the DMK and the YSRCP will be happy to extend support to the new outfit since they cannot afford to back either of the two national parties at this moment.

KARNATAKA & LOK SABH 2014

CAN THE CONGRESS CARRY THE MOMENTUM?

After its emphatic victory in 2013 assembly polls, one would expect the Congress to do exceedingly well in Karnataka, more since the two opposition parties, namely the BJP and the JD-S were not able to even cross the half century mark. After all, if the BJP could win over sixty percent of the seats here in 2009 after managing to fall short of the majority mark by two seats in 2008 state polls, the INC with 122 MLAs in the present assembly can even better the saffron party's tally. While nobody can deny that the Congress has an upper hand, the return of the Lingayat strongman and tainted former CM B S Yeddyurappa into the BJP ranks has given it a big boost. The fight is now expected to be much closer than it was previously thought to be. Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Deve Gowda has joined the Third Front (Link) bandwagon. After the demolition in the last Lok Sabha polls and a below par performance in the election to the state legislature it seems that the Vokkaliga leader is desperately fighting for his political survival at the Center. Here is my take on the issues that will decide how Karnataka votes, my predictions of the results here and what are the things to look out for.

ISSUES

(1) Local versus National: The people of Karnataka are in a dilemma of sorts. The performance of the UPA in its second innings at the Center and that of the Congress regime in Bengaluru so far has been drastically different.

While he has been in power for around a year, the Chief Minister of Karnataka Siddaramaiah has made sure that he does not do anything to displease the masses who voted for his party in May 2013. In fact, some of the populist programmes undertaken by the new government have been major hits and are likely to help the Congress electorally like the Anna Bhagya scheme which provides rice at Re 1 per kg for people living below the poverty line. The 2014 state budget focused on farmers and of course, the minorities which form nearly 17 percent of the state's population. Although two ministers in his cabinet namely D Shivakumar and Roshan Baig have been accused in scams, Siddu has put his party on a firm footing in the state; it seems that he has justified the faith that Sonia Gandhi showed in him by appointing him for the top job despite of strong opposition from party leaders who were against an 'outsider' being made the CM after such a huge win.

Now contrast this to the UPA government in New Delhi and you know what I am talking about. Over the last four years, scam after scam running into thousands of crores of rupees have rocked the nation. At a time when corruption has become the most talked about issue in the country, the INC is facing enormous anti-incumbency and finding hard to find allies who are afraid of negative publicity if they tie-up with the grand old party. Apart from graft, the Congress led government has failed on all accounts; the country's growth rate has declined even as unemployment rates continue to be high. Overall, the image of the country as an emerging world power based on our political stability and economic success over the years has been tarnished. The bottom line is clear; the UPA II government under Manmohan Singh is one of the least popular governments in the history of the country and certainly the Congress cannot hope to win the upcoming polls by showcasing its report card.

Now you can yourself conclude what is the position of the two national parties on this topic. The BJP wants the electorate to vote keeping the UPA's performance in mind whereas the Congress wants to focus on the Siddaramiah's work in the last one year.

(2) The caste equations: The fact of the matter is that caste is one of the most dominating factors in the Karnataka politics and there is nothing to indicate that it is going to change this time around. All the three parties major parties have their own caste based vote banks that they will rely on to maximize their tally.

The Lingayats are the most dominant caste in the state and the tallest leader from this community is B S Yeddyurappa. Nobody can deny the fact that had he been with the BJP during the last state polls, the party would have easily won around 10 to 20 seats more. While the Shikaripura MLA's party - the KJP won just 6 seats, he managed to dent his former party's prospects. Now that BSY has merged the KJP into the BJP, the state leadership is hopeful that the Lingayats who had deserted them earlier will be with them this time around. The 2014 elections will be a test for Yeddy as in my opinion it will decide whether he still yields the kind of influence over his caste that he used to till some time back.

While the BJP is banking on the Lingayats, Deve Gowda is hopeful that his Vokkaliga community will stand firmly behind him. The Vokkaligas are the second biggest caste in the state and have significant presence in the southern parts of Karnataka. This region has been the traditional strong hold of the JD(S). The former Prime Minister will be hoping that he can expand his influence over other sections of the society too.

Moving over the two biggest communities in the state, Siddaramiah stitched together a powerful combination to romp home to power in 2013. Belonging to the Koruba caste, he banked on the support of the OBCs and the minorities to score an emphatic win for the Congress. After the return of BSY to the BJP, he has tried to woo the Vokkaligas by giving several soaps to the farmers in the state budget.

(3) The mis-rule of the BJP: Unfortunately for the saffron outfit, the Congress is tackling anti-incumbency at the Center by reminding the people of the BJP's mis-rule when it was in power here. What was suppose to be its model government to the south of the Vindhyas turned into a major embarrassment as numerous ministers were accused of being involved in corruption. Serving CM Yeddyurappa was jailed for his alleged role in a land grab scam. Much like the UPA regime, the saffron government in Karnataka was certainly one of the most unpopular state governments in recent times. In spite of changing three different CMs in five years, the party lost or to be frank was routed in the 2013 polls to the legislature. Before the General elections, one can expect the Congress and the JD(S) to raise this subject to counter the BJP's campaign based around Narendra Modi.

(4) The problems in Bengaluru: While Pune, Mumbai, Noida and Hyderabad offer some competition, Bengaluru - the capital of Karnataka is the premier IT destination in the country. Several MNCs, both in Information Technology and Electronics have set up their branches here, providing employment to thousands of Indians. However, over the years, the Garden City is being plagued by numerous problems most of which have been overlooked by successive regimes. While population has been growing, the infrastructure continues to be pathetic. The conditions of road network in the city is bad and projects like fly overs, under passes and Namma Metro have been delayed. Property prices have skyrocketed, the green cover is fast disappearing and the water table is depleting at an alarming rate. Moreover, a recent report in NDTV showed that the city corporation is in a debt worth several hundred crores. Since Bengaluru has five Lok Sabha seats - four in the city and one in the rural areas, the development of the city is likely to feature during the campaigns.

CONTENDERS

Karnataka is an interesting state from the political point of view since all three national fronts have some presence here. In the triangular contest, the fight is between the Congress (UPA), the BJP (NDA) and the Deve Gowda's JD(S) which is a constituent and founding member of the Third Front.

(1) Congress: The INC is in an enviable position in the state. In fact, it is one of the handful of states where the party has no major worries. All that CM Siddaramiah & Co. have to do is make sure that they do not do anything wrong and they can easily walk away with more than half of the seats from here. The state is extremely crucial for the Congress, more so after it has become clear that it is heading towards a rout in Seemandhra after the creation of Telangana (Link). Considering its precarious position in the rest of the country, the Congress would like to make up for its loses in other states by winning a major chunk of the seats here. The election in Karnataka is for the Congress to lose; if the leaders can hold their nerve the state could even end up adding the maximum number of MPs to the UPA's tally. In its first list of nominees, the party has retained all of its sitting MPs and has also roped in former Infosys CEO Nandan Nilenkani to contest from Bengaluru - South.

(2) BJP: In 2009, Karnataka was one of the states where the BJP beat the Congress hands down winning 19 of the 28 seats. Five years down the line when the national mood is largely anti-Congress, the saffron party in the state is not in a position to capitalize over it. As the elections are coming near, the party's strtegy seems to be to cut down its loses. Firstly, the BJP has managed to woo the former CM Yeddy back into its fold. Though he carries the stigma of corruption with him, BSY can help the party win a sizable number of Lingayat votes. With this development, the BJP can expect to win at least 2 to 3 more seats than it would have without Yeddyurappa by their side. Next, efforts are on to woo back Sriramalu who split from the BJP to form the BSR Congress just before the 2013 assembly polls. Also, the party is expected to drop many of its sitting MPs. Will this pay off? We need to wait and watch.

(3) Janata Dal (Secular): In 2009, the JD(S) was reduced to mere three seats and in course of time, it did lose 2 of these in by polls. With both the seats being their former strongholds, it looks like the regional outfit is battling for its survival. Just prior to the General Elections, the former PM Deve Gowda has put his weight behind the Third Front. In a loose federation like this, numbers matter. As such Gowda has his task cut out. If he can get over 10 seats, he can emerge as the 'dark horse' for the top post of the country, provided the Front can stack up the numbers. If he gets between 5 to 10 seats, he can lobby for lucrative ministry in the national cabinet. If he finishes with less than 5 seats, then he will be reduced to a minor player at the national level. In a bid to maximize its chances, the party has launched the 'Save Karnataka' campaign. Accusing both the national fronts of failing to work for the development of the state, the JD(S) is pitching itself as a strong alternative to the people of the state. The problem however is that the Gowdas lack support in all the parts in Karnataka. Besides, it does not have any mass leaders other than the father-son duo of H D Deve Gowda and H D Kumaraswamy. In 2008, just before the state elections, two of its prominent leaders, namely M P Prakash and a certain Siddaramaiah crossed over to the Congress accusing the JD(S) supremo of nepotism. While Prakash is dead, the other leader today is the CM of Karnataka. Meanwhile, the senior Gowda is set to contest from his home in Hassan even though some of his cadre wanted him to contest from some constituency in the south. His son Kumaraswamy has made it clear that he will concentrate on state politics whereas his wife Anita is not too keen to jump into the fray.

Sriramalu is certainly going to be the numero uno contender in his fortres of Bellary in case he does not merge his BSR Congress into the BJP. The Maharashtra Ekikaran Samiti might do well amongst the Marathi-speaking areas in Belgaum but is unlikely to win any seats. 

PAST PERFORMANCE

One look at the below chart shows the rise and then the ultimate fall of the BJP in the state. In 1999 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress held 18 seats in the state. In the next two General Elections, it was the saffron outfit which came out flying colors. Even in the assembly elections, the party made good progress over the years until its disastrous tenure in power. The Congress ended its seven year drought as it scored a famous win in 2013 crossing the half way mark on its own. The JD(S) has never been a big player in the state in the sense that its numbers in General Elections have always been paltry. It remains to be seen if Gowda's outfit can break the ceiling this time around.

Political Party	2013 SE	2009 GE	2008 SE	2004 GE	2004 SE	1999 LE
Congress	122	6	80	8	65	18
Bharatiya Janata Party	40	19	110	18	79	7
Janata Dal (Secular)	40	3	28	2	58	-
Others	22	-	6	-	5	3

(1) SE: State Election (Karnataka assembly has 224 seats)
(2) GE: General Election (Karnataka has 28 seats in the Lower house of the Parliament)

MY PREDICTIONS

Siddaramiah is all set to the lead Congress to a huge victory in the General Elections in 2014 in his home state. In my opinion, Karnataka is doing to be one of the few silver linings for the UPA in the next polls. On the other hand, the BJP is losing and losing heavily. Its only hope is that Yeddy's return will help it do well in the northern parts of the state. The JD(S) will struggle as it has always done in the big elections.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Congress	14-18
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	8-12
3	Janata Dal - Secular (JD - S)	1-4
4	BSR Congress	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) Which way will Sriramalu go? Bellary strongman Sriramalu is likely to return to the saffron outfit before the election. Even the BJP is keen to have him back considering his influence in his district. The Valmiki leader's home coming will further strengthen the party here. However, it is believed that Sushma Swaraj who had contested the elections from Bellary against Sonia Gandhi in 1999 is not too keen to have him back. Sriramalu is extremely close to the tainted Reddy brothers. If he returns back, the BJP will have to answer certain tough questions. However, I think this a risk it is willing to take.

(2) Sandalwood stars battle it out in Mandya: Popularly known as 'Sandalwood Queen', Kannada actress Ramya is the serving Congress MP from Mandya. It is believed that the BJP is planning to rope in 'Real Star' Upendra to contest against her. With both these actors boasting of massive popularity, the contest is expected to extremely close. Meanwhile, the JD(S) too has got in another celebrity to wrest the seat which was, till sometime back considered to be its stronghold. It is expected to nominate actress Rakshita from here. The battle between the Sandalwood stars is going to be interesting. Though many Kannada actors have joined politics in the past, they do not evoke the kind of response that actors turned politicians do in states like Andhra and Tamil Nadu.

(3) The fight over Kaveri: Do not be surprised if the dispute over sharing of waters of the river Kaveri is raised by politicians in the state before the General Elections. In February 2013, the Central government, under pressure from the Supreme Court ratified the final award of the Cauvery Water Dispute Tribunal under which Tamil Nadu is to get 58 percent of the water whereas Karnataka got 37 percent. Many in the state had opposed this but the protests died out soon in wake of the assembly elections. However, you can expect the BJP and the JD(S) to bring use this issue to counter the Congress.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

WHY THE THIRD FRONT IS A FAILURE?

FIVE REASONS WHY THE FEDERAL FRONT WILL NOT BE A SUCCESS

With seven regional parties joining hands with the Left Front earlier this week, it seems like the much hyped 'Third Front', a term which gains momentum months prior to General Elections and then fizzles out, is on the cards. The eleven constituents who have around 90 MPs in the Lok Sabha have formed a united block and have planned to oppose any bill brought in by the government since it could electorally benefit the Congress. In the coming days, it is expected that the leaders of the Front which at present includes the Janata Dal (United), the Samajawadi Party, the Biju Janata Dal, the Janata Dal (Secular), the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), the All India Anna Daravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Asom Gana Parishad, apart from the four parties of the Left Block will hold talks to finalize the seat sharing arrangements. A non-BJP, non-Congress government at the Centre has been the ultimate dream of the federalists. However, the big question is whether it is a viable option. The increase in the vote share of the regional outfits and the emergence of strong state satraps has made them extremely important in national politics. Meanwhile, the anti-incumbency is hurting the Congress whereas the polarization of votes could affect the BJP's prospects after it named Narendra Modi as its PM nominee. As such, some believe that 2014 could see witness a Federal Front heading the regime in New Delhi. In fact, in a bid to prevent the NDA from coming to power, the UPA may offer such an alliance consisting of regional players outside support. However, I believe that the Third Front is bound to fail. Firstly, it will need at least 120 plus seats to be a force to reckon with and considering the present situation of its constituents, it seems to be an uphill task. In fact even if it gets 120 seats and forms a minority government with the outside support of the Congress, it is unlikely to last over two years. And here are the five reasons why I think so...

(1) Present Situation: As I have mentioned earlier, the Third Front has to get over 120 seats to even dream of forming the next government. However, in the present situation, it is expected that most of the regional parties who met this week are going to drop seats. Nitish Kumar, the most vocal leader of the new formation has to battle anti-incumbency, a resurgent BJP and the Congress-RJD-LJP alliance this time around. Having walked out of the NDA over the leadership issue, the JD(U) is likely to end with a tally of 10-15 seats only. In neighboring Uttar Pradesh, the Muslims who have been a prominent vote bank of the Samajwadi Party may desert it following the inability of the Akhilesh government to prevent the Muzaffarnagar riots. Meanwhile, the BJP and the BSP are likely to spoil the prospects of Mulayum Singh Yadav in the upcoming polls. The Left Front could be heading towards its worst showing in many years. Having stormed the Left bastion of Bengal in 2011, Mamata Bannerjee is all set to take the lion's share of seats in the eastern state. In Kerala too, the LDF is said to be extremely weak. Down south, the Gowdas have never been able to increase their clout outside the Mandya region of Karnataka. Besides the father son duo of Deve Gowda and Kumarswamy, they do not have any strong leaders who can win them seats. The AGP and the JVM (P) can at max, win 10 and 3 seats in Assam and Jharkhand respectively. On the contrary, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK and Naven Patnaik's BJD are expected to put on a good show. Considering the above arguments, I think the Third Front will finish with a combined tally of 80 - 110 seats, falling short of the 120 mark. On the other hand, if the NDA or the UPA manage to cross the 200 mark on their own, some parties in the confederation may not be averse to joining either of them. Amma is known to be close to Modi whereas Patnaik and AGP were a part of the BJP led alliance earlier. Similarly, the SP and the JD(S) have bailed out the INC many times in the past in the Parliament.

(2) The ideology: To get votes, the Third Front will have to project an ideology to the people. This is exactly what the coalition lacks as of now. The only reason for these parties who come from diverse backgrounds, who cater to different vote banks and who have varied 'founding principles' to come together has been to the aim of forming a non-BJP, non-Congress regime in New Delhi. In fact, this has been the stand of many regional players since decades. Earlier, with many of these fighting the INC in their back ground, anti-Congressism was the glue that kept them together. Over the years, with the 'Secularism' debate dominating the political scene, there has been a slight change here with anti-BJP sentiments taking over, especially after the nomination of Modi as NDA's Prime Ministerial candidate. However, the point to note here is whether the masses will vote for the regional players only to keep the mainstream national parties at bay? Also, the Federal alliance has never spoken about its 'united' vision for the country, the economic policies that it plans to implement once in power and its views on the nation's foreign affairs, social issue and key reforms are unclear. Besides, another challenge for them is whether the individual parties will ever rise above regional lines. One important thing is that each of the member of this alliance has a vote bank to protect. With every outfit trying to safeguard its own political interests will the Front be ever able to deliver on vital issues. My answer to this question is a No. Probably, the biggest problem will come while presenting the annual budget as every leader will want to get the maximum funds for his or her state.

(3) An incomplete front: Another head ache for the federal alliance is that in several key states, it has virtually no presence. Of course, in the coming days I expect several smaller parties like the People's Party of Punjab, either the National Conference or People's Democratic Party in Jammu & Kashmir and some other outfits in the North-East to join this confederation. Still, this does not solve the issue. In Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Himachal and Uttarkhand, the coalition has no leader who can win them seats. In Andhra, where there are as many as three regional parties, namely the YSR Congress, the Telugu Desum Party and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, none of these have indicated their willingness to join hands with federal front. Same is the situation in Maharashtra. Though the ties between the NCP and the Congress have been strained, they continue to share power. On the other hand, the BJP has already brought together several parties in its Mahayuti. Another issue facing the new front is that most of these regional players, except for Naveen Patnaik has a strong traditional regional rival and getting them on board is an impossible task. With Mulayum in the group, there is no way that Mayawati is going to give her support to the coalition; DMK and the AIADMK do not see eye to eye; Nitish will never allow bete noire Lalu Yadav to be a member of the alliance where Mamata's TMC can never work with the Left parties. With Didi and Behenji out of the equation, there is no way that the Third Front will get the numbers to form the next government.

(4) Leadership: Lets suppose that the Third Front is all set to form the government, either on its own or with outside support of the Congress. The question staring at the alliance will be who will head the government? All this while, the Third Front members have tried to evade this issue by claiming that the decision on who will be their PM choice will be taken after the polls. However, with nearly half a dozen leaders harboring ambitions for the top job, selecting one person will be extremely difficult. In a party meeting, the AIADMK cadre have proposed Jayalalithaa's name for the post. Knowing how things function in the Dravidian parties, it is for sure that this announcement too has the matriarch's blessings. It is a well known fact that Mulayum Singh Yadav too wants to become the Prime Minister. In fact, when he asked his son Akhilesh to become the CM of Uttar Pradesh after the SP dislodged the BSP from power, it was being speculated that he was planning to move to the national scene. Bihar CM Nitish Kumar too is seen as a probable PM candidate. While he had denied any such ambitions in the past, his repeated calls for the formation of the Third Front and his excessive campaigning in the last few months tell a different story. Nitish's party colleague Sharad Yadav is the dark horse. His experience as the convener of the NDA may come in handy while keeping the different allies happy. And how can one forget the humble farmer H D Deve Gowda. A former PM, he like Sharad Yadav too can be a please-all candidate. However, what goes against him is that the JD(S) may fail to win over 5 seats. Probably, the best amongst the pack, at least in my opinion is Orissa CM Naveen Patnaik. Having governed his state fairly well for three consecutive terms, he has the experience to handle the PM's post.

(5) Bitter experiences of the past: They say 'History repeats itself'. The four federal governments that were formed in the 1990s are testimony to the fact that such an experiment can never be sustainable and will only result in political instability. In 1989, Vishwananth Pratap Singh led the first such government at the Centre which barely lasted for an year. The reason for the fall of this regime was that Chandra Shekar led faction broke away, a clear indication that such formations never work. Chandra Shekar who succeeded Singh fared even badly, staying in power only for 223 days after the Congress withdrew its support, accusing him of spying on their leader Rajiv Gandhi. The third experiment of a regional alliance was in 1996 when Deve Gowda headed the United Front government. Prior to the government formation, there were several uneasy meetings to decide the new PM. It is widely believed that Lalu Yadav prevented Mulayum from being the PM to make sure that he does not emerge as the biggest Yadav leader in the country. Less than an year later, his regime fell and I K Gujral occupied the highest executive post in the country. There is one important event that took place while Gujral was at the helm of affairs which is worth reading. It is relevant because such situations may arise in case of a Third Front government comes to power in 2014. As PM, Gujral tried his best to shield Lalu Yadav as the CBI was investigating the multi-crore Fodder scam. You see the regional parties have a narrow minded approach. They fail to see what is good for the country as a whole, rather focusing on their states. Such an approach is not ideal for leading a nation as diverse as ours. Though I firmly believe that smaller outfits are one of the greatest features of our democracy, I think that giving the reins of the Central government to them is like allowing a 15 year old drive a car. While the teenager may do a decent job, there are high chances that he may crash his vehicle. At the same time I do not say that the two national parties or rather the coalitions that they are heading - the UPA and the NDA are the best choice. However if I have to choose amongst the three 'Devils', I will definitely chose them any day over the Third Front.

BACK INTO THE PACK

YEDDY REJOINS THE BJP

Courtesy: Yeddyurappa.in

Former Karnataka CM and Lingayat strongman B S Yeddyurappa rejoined the BJP last week, a development that could see the saffron outfit do relatively well compared to the debacle it suffered in the state polls held about six months ago. The Shikaripura MLA had joined the Karnataka Janata Party (KJP) just before the 2013 state assembly elections along with his supporters and well wishers after the high command refused to re-install him as the Chief Minister considering the allegations of corruption levied against him; in fact, in one such case, he was arrested and jailed in October 2011 after the state Lokayukta found of guilty of illegally denotifying land in Bengaluru to favor his son. Miffed by his party's decision to sideline him, he had vowed to teach the BJP a lesson, hopeful that his caste which is the biggest in Karnataka will stick with him. At that same time, with many pundits expecting a hung assembly, it was believed that the KJP could emerge as the Kingmaker. While he did manage to hit the BJP hard in many places, especially in the north, Yeddy's outfit got just six seats with many of his trusted aides including Shobha Karandalaje biting the dust. As Congress' Siddaramaih was crowned, the saffron party relegated to third spot and Yeddy being a dud, one thing was clear - the BJP and its former state chief had to mend their differences in order to survive in the southern state. The question was not why... it was when. The elevation of Narendra Modi who is said to be close to BSY, within the party and the end of Advani era further helped this cause since the patriarch had been quite vocal in his criticism of the former CM. Finally, in January 2014, the Lingayat leader rejoined the party that he had built in the state over period spanning almost four decades in what was a rather low key ceremony attended by his rivals including Sadanand Gowda, Jagdish Shettar and bete noire Ananth Kumar. Along with him, three more KJP MLAs were joined the BJP; two more legislators B R Patil (Aland) and Guru Patil (Shahpur) have decided to remain independent for the time being.  

The development is a big boost for the BJP considering the route it had to face in the 2013 polls. Such was the fate of the party that it lost the race to become the primary opposition to the Janata Dal - Secular (JD-S). The rejoining of the KJP supremo will help strengthen the outfit, specially in North Karnataka where the Lingayat community is predominant. An analysis of the state results shows that the BJP lost about 30 to 35 seats due to a split of votes between it and the KJP, with a majority of these seats eventually going to the Congress. While it may not have dramatically changed the game, the fact remains that had BSY still be in the saffron camp, the BJP would have easily crossed the 60 mark. In the hindsight, considering the kind of regime that they gave to Kannadigas in those 5 disastrous years, I believe the BJP definitely deserved the drubbing that they got. Meanwhile, BSY has sounded the electoral bugle. He has set a target of 20 seats; it will be quite an achievement even if the saffron party gets past the two-digit mark. Although, 2009 was a nightmare for the BJP, it did extremely well in Karnataka, bagging 18 of the 28 seats. However, this time around, the Congress is hopeful of riding on the wave in its favor and win over 15 seats. The entry of Yeddy may make it a more even contest now. Secondly, in my opinion, it is a shot in the arm for Narendra Modi. The appointment of the Gujarat CM at the helm of affairs before the 2014 general elections has been the key reason for the re-entry of the Lingayat leader. The whole affair is a proof that his anointment has helped further strengthen the party organization and rejuvenate the cadre. The Hindutva strongman will hope that BSY's presence will help the BJP perform well in Karnataka and help him in his mission to get 272+ seats.

Now, the rejoining of Yeddy into the BJP has its own set of liabilities too. The manner in which the party leadership sought to keep the whole thing a simple affair rather than planning a huge rally to welcome its former chief in the state, something you might have expected to happen in Indian politics, says it all. Although he may have exonerated of most of the charges framed against him, Yeddyurappa has a public image of being corrupt and greedy. The numerous cases against him become a cause of embarrassment for party and took the sting off their attack on the scams unearthed during UPA II at the Centre. At a time when corruption is becoming a major electoral issue after years, the return of BSY could dent the BJP's image. Secondly, another headache for the state leadership will be to keep the organization united. When he stepped down from the post of the Chief Minister, he chose his close aide D V Sadanand Gowda - a Vokkaliga, a clear move to keep away other Lingayat leaders from gaining prominence. However, when it became clear that DVS would not act like his pawn, BSY pressurized the party to have him replaced with Jagdish Shettar. A few months later though, the duo fought and after the BJP high command refused to sack Shettar, Yeddy walked out. In the months before the elections, DVS and Shettar had publicly taken on BSY, claiming that his departure had cleansed the saffron outfit. While the two were present at the occasion, it remains to be seen whether they are ready to forget the past and work together. However, what remains to be seen is whether BSY and Ananth Kumar can dissolve their differences. The fiction between the two is a stuff of legends in party circles. The performance of the BJP will largely depend on how they can curb their individual differences for the greater cause. And lastly, a third reason for the party's headache ahead of the General elections might be Yeddyurappa's authoritarian attitude. It is believed that just in about a week of the development, he has started throwing around his weight and has asked the party to drop as many as 10 sitting MPs including some big names - Prahalad Joshi (Dharwad), Ananthkumar Hegde (North Kanara), Suresh Angadi (Belgaum), P C Mohan (Bangalore - Central) and Chandre Gowda (Bangalore - North). The dropping of such heavyweights may lead to internal rebellion jeopardizing the party' plans altogether. Certainly, the return of Yeddyurappa back into the saffron camp is a calculated risk. Whether it pays off or further plunges damages the prospects of the party in Karnataka need to be seen.

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Yeddyurappa.in
Source: B S Yeddyurappa (Link)

BATTLEGROUND KARNATAKA - PART 2

THE QUADRIPARTITE BATTLE FOR POWER

However, the problem plaguing the Congress is the plethora of Chief Ministerial candidates and the friction amongst them which has jeopardized the entire process of ticket distibution with each leader wanting their confidantes to be the official nominees of the party. Siddaramaiah, the leader of opposition in the outgoing assembly is the front runner in the race. Belonging to the 80 lakh strong Kuruba Gowda caste,

Rahul at a rally in Dharwad

he has considerable influence in the Old Mysore region and has served as the Deputy CM twice in the past. However,the biggest problem for him is that since he joined the INC after falling apart with his mentor Deve Gowda in 2008, many look upon him as an outsider and prefer a Gandhi-Nehru loyalist for the post. Enter Dr. G Parameshwar who was hand picked by Sonia Gandhi to head the KPCC in 2010. Being a multiple time MLA and a fresh face, he does enjoy the support of many insiders. 'Rebel star' and Kannada film star Ambareesh also nurtures ambitions to occupy the CM's chair. With the death of Dr. Rajkumar and Vishnu Vardhan, he is regarded by many as the tallest star in the Kannada film industry today. However, his brash temperament and limited influence in the Mysore region may go against him. S M Krishna, the former External Affairs minister who has served as the CM from 1999 to 2004, has lost much of his former charisma but is still quite popular, especially in the capital Bengaluru which was developed a lot under his tenure. In case, no consensus emerges, he may be called up as the 'please-all' candidate. Leaders from Hyderabad-Karnataka region like Union Labour Minister Malikarjuna Kharge and former CM Dharam Singh are the dark horses in the race for the throne.

The father-son duo of Deve Gowda and H D Kumaraswamy are working tirelessly to replicate in Karnataka what the Yadavs (Mulayum-Akhilesh) and the Badals (Parkash-Sukhbir) did in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab respectively. In his 20 month long stint as the CM, some of the initiatives launched by the junior Gowda were well received by the people. No one can deny that the withdrawal of support to the BSY government in 2008 by the JD(S) which was projected as a betrayal by the BJP won it sympathy votes. Not so surprisingly, the party dropped 31 seats to finish with just 28 in the last elections. Even in

The Gowdas

2009 Lok Sabha, the JD(S) could win only 3 seats. This time though, the mood is upbeat and the Gowdas are trying their best to woo the voters even beyond their traditional bastion of Southern Karnataka and its core vote bank - the Vokkaliggas and become a strong third alternative to the people of the state. The party manifesto has several sops to the farmers, weavers and fishermen. The 'Secular' party has promised funds for the development of minorities and effectively tackle corruption. By declaring its candidate list after the two national parties, it has accommodated several dissident leaders from these outfits. If the JD(S) manages to get over 60 seats and the Congress fails to get a simple majority, then it will emerge as a key player in the post poll scenario. Some reports suggest that, the Gowdas may not be averse to ally with the BJP if that is an option to come to power. Unlike the Congress, the JD(S) does not have an recognized faces apart from the Gowda duo. In fact, two of its other prominent faces - Siddaramaiah and late M P Prakash had quit in 2008 after they realized that the former PM would only support his own son as the next chief. While this prevents any infighting, the sad part for the party is that it is heavily reliant on the top two for campaigning.

Many believe that in 2013 assembly elections, Yeddyurappa is likely to emerge as the King-maker, all the more because of the four way contest that the state will witness. After being side-lined in the party that he had built in the state, the Lingayyat strongman joined the Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) founded by Padmanabha Prasanna in November last year. Soon a string of loyalist, right from ministers in the government to corporators and  ordinary workers broke their association with the BJP and followed their leader into his new party. Yeddy's outfit has had a pretty good start as it managed to do fairly well in the local polls, managing to eat into the saffron outfit's vote share. By praising Sonia Gandhi before jumping to KJP, it is believed that he is keeping all his options open and might fill in the numbers in case the party falls short of the magic number. Though, he may vehemently deny it, allying with the BJP may not be difficult either. Thus, he is poised to become the game-changer in this elections in case of a hung assembly which is the most likely scenario if not for a Congress victory. However, allying with KJP may not be so easy. The long list of illegal land deals that he and his family members are accused of will hurt both the KJP and its future ally. Also, as the BJP leadership will tell, he is a tough nut to crack and will be difficult to deal with. One should not forget that besides DVS and Shettar, the KJP boss even had founder Prasanna thrown out of the party.

Yeddy knows that by leaving the BJP, he has taken the biggest gamble of his political career and a lot depends on the May 8 results. The Linggayyat leader who was known to given liberal grants to Mutts and seers during his tenure as the CM still has lots of friends in religious circles, all of whom are now

KJP supremo Yeddyurappa

asking their disciples to vote for him. Next, he is trying hard to get the support of the Muslim community which is traditional loyal to the Congress. Audacious as it may sound, Yedyurappa is asking the masses to vote for him and not the candidate. Even the manifesto is full of sops to appease all sections of the society, from women to farmers, from Christians whose churches were robbed in his tenure to the old. But the shrewd politician that he is, Yeddy knows that winning anything above 20 seats will not be easy. Four of his blue-eyed boys have ditched him, probably because they fear the influence that Shobha Karandalaje welds over the KJP chief. If the BJP manages to do the impossible and comes back to power and if the KJP gets less than 15 seats then he will have no option but to go back to his old party. In case, the Congress sweeps the polls, then Yeddy has to get over 20 seats to stay relevant. While a hung assembly will make him the most important politician in the state, any other result will hurt him in the long run. Finally, if he bags 30 odd seats in the new assembly, then he may well lead the Third Front in the 2014 general elections, something which he says is his aim.

Finally, there are several other smaller parties and a few national parties that have virtually no presence in the state that are contesting the elections. B Sriramalu who has floated his own party - the BSR Congress is expected to do well in Bellary region. With the Reddy brothers throwing their weight and money power behind him, the Nayaka leader is touring the state, hoping to grab as many seats as possible in his kitty. The Loksatta Party founded by former bureaucrat Jaiprakash Narayan, which has promised 'clean' politics is making its debut. Dalit leader and BSP supremo Mayawati has also addressed rallies in Northern Karnataka where she was quizzed by EC officials for carrying large sum of money with her. Besides, other national parties like the Samajwadi Party, Nationalist Congress Party, Communist Party of India (Marxist) and Janata Dal (United) have fielded their candidates in different parts of the state. The upcoming polls will be the most important in the history of Karnataka. While it is rich in natural resources and is the premiere IT destination of the country, the state has a long way to go as it continues to be plagued with frequent droughts, poverty and inequality. Apart from this, corruption has threatened to derail infrastructure development, especially in 'hi-tech city' Bengaluru. The people of Karnataka have to make the right choice so that the prestige of their state is restored.

Battleground Karnataka - Part 1 (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Rahul at a rally in Dharwad
Original: Rediff - Rahul turns 40 (Link)

(2) The Gowdas
Original: The Gowda merry go round (Link)

(3) KJP supremo Yeddyurappa
Original: Yeddyurappa.in (Link)

BATTLEGROUND KARNATAKA - PART 1

THE QUADRIPARTITE BATTLE FOR POWER

With the people from the north eastern states re-electing their incumbent governments to power, the round one of the 2013 assembly polls is over and the action has now shifted to Karnataka which is scheduled to go to the polls on 5 May. As this is the first big state on the line this year, the contest is heating up and the fight is expected to get uglier by the day. The results of the local elections held about two months ago in the various cities and towns across Karnataka indicates an anti-BJP

CM Jagdish Shettar will lead the BJP

wave which is primarily benefiting the principal Opposition party - the Congress. Sensing victory, the INC is trying to build on the advantage in its attempt to form a majority regime on its own without the need of any unholy alliances. On the contrary, the BJP which is hit by numerous corruption scandals and defection is trying hard to prevent desertion of top leaders and more importantly the voters to other outfits. JD(S) chief Kumarswamy who has topped a recent poll as the preferred Chief Ministerial candidate of the electorate is highlighting the failures of the national parties to deliver on their promises in the past while asking the masses to give him a second shot at the top post. With the pundits predicting a hung assembly, the new entrants in the fray - former CM Yeddyurappa's KJP and Bellary strongman Sriramalu's BSR Congress are hoping to emerge as the King-makers so that can make the next government dance to their whims and fancies. Whether the predictions come true or not, it seems as though the Karnataka elections will probably be the most closely contested polls of this year and the outcome here will certainly have a bearing on how the fight for the next Lok Sabha shapes up.

In 2008, as the BJP swept the state winning 110 of the 224 seats on the line, many of its well wishers hoped that its 'model government' here would help it expand in other southern states. Five years down the line, it seems as if the regime which saw as many as three different CMs besides innumerable scandals will arguably be a top contender for the tag of the worst government in the history of Karnataka. Soon after assuming power, the top leadership of the party launched the infamous 'Operation Kamal (Lotus)' hoping to increase its strength in the Vidhan Soudha, wherein opposing MLAs were convinced to resign and then contest on BJP ticket from their respective constituencies. Though the Congress had employed such a strategy in Goa after they managed to topple the then Parrikar government in 2005, the manner in which Yeddy & Co. went about with this experiment did raise suspicion about huge sums of money being used to influence sitting legislators. Few months down the line, with the powerful and unbelievably rich Reddy brothers coming under the scanner on allegation of illegal mining and exporting of iron ore, the BJP was caught in a catch 22 situation as sacking Janardhan Reddy would cause a vertical split in their ranks whereas not taking any action would make the party look like being soft on corruption thereby affecting its own campaign against scams perpetrated by the UPA government at the Centre. Though Yeddyurappa managed to avert this crisis, the Lokayukta report indicting him of making profits through illegal land deals in Bengaluru was indeed a major embarrassment, compounded by his flat refusal to resign from his post inspite of pressure from the top leadership including patriarch Lal Krishna Advani and his media spats with Justice Hegde.

Eventually, the Shikaripur MLA was arrested and jailed, thereby becoming the first CM in the history of the country to be put behind the bars. With the calls for his head growing louder by the day and no alternative left, BSY finally put down his papers and entrusted his beloved post to his trusted aide D V Sadanand Gowda, who was the state president during the BJP's spectacular victory in 2008. It is believed that Yeddy had propped up Sadanand Gowda, a Vokkaligga as he closely

Modi addresses a rally in Bengaluru

guarded his image as the top leader of the Lingayyat community - the largest caste in the state, which is his biggest USP. However, things soon turned sour between the two and the former threatened to pull down the government which he had himself headed in the past. To prevent dissident activities, the party bowed to his demands and brought another of his former lieutenant Jagdish Shettar - this time a Lingayat to power. Not so surprisingly, the two fell apart soon and BSY quit the party that he had so pain stackingly established in the state over a period spanning nearly four decades and joined the KJP. Several leaders including former minister Shobha Karandalaje followed him into the new party. Besides, the 'porngate scandal' wherein three legislators were seen watching sleaze inside the Legislative Assembly, the revolt of B Sriramalu and the subsequent rout in Bellary Rural by-elections, the court case involving the disqualification of 11 party rebels and five independent MLAs and the desecration of churches in South Kanara further added to the woes of the premiere BJP government south of the Vindhyas.

There were two reasons for saffron outfit's resounding win in 2008 - the Lingayyat community's backing of BSY and the money power of the Reddy brothers. This time around though, with both Yeddyurappa and Sriramalu out of the BJP, the party is taking several steps to improve its performance, especially after the setback in the local elections. Firstly, Pralhad Joshi - the Member of Parliament from Dharwad was named as the new state president which is seen as a move to strengthen its position in northern parts of the state where the KJP is giving it tough competition. Joshi who had led the agitation to hoist the national flag at the Idgah Maidan in Hubli has both, a clean image and Hindutva past and hence was chosen over the likes of DVS and Eshwarappa. Secondly, in a bold move, the party had made Jagdish Shettar its leader ahead of the polls, hoping to retain the Lingayyat vote bank that had rallied behind it in the past. By naming their chief ministerial candidate, the BJP has virtually removed all scope of infighting in its ranks and made ticket distribution process much easier, something which has made life difficult for the INC. Trying hard to wash away the taint of corruption and mis-administration, the party is trying to project that it has been cleansed after the departure of BSY and the Reddys. Besides, it has also done something that parties in India rarely do with president Rajnath Singh saying a sorry for the failure to provide a stable government in Karnataka in the last five years. While this apology may be too little too late, nonetheless it is a positive gesture. The state leadership has managed to convince Yeddy loyalists - Basvaraj Bommai, Umesh Katti, Murugesh Nirani and V Somanna to stay back giving a big blow to the KJP. The manifesto includes a host of freebies like subsidized rice for the poor and laptops for students of standard XII. Also, it has roped in star campaigner Narendra Modi to address rallies in Bengaluru, Belgaum and Mangalore which has attracted sizable crowds.

The Congress in Karnataka, on the other hand, finds itself in the ideal situation as most of the opinion polls predict it to emerge close to the majority mark if not cross it comfortably. With the incumbent regime paralyzed by one scandal after another, much like the UPA at the Centre, it looks like the elections are INC's to lose. 

Parameshwar (Left) and Siddaramiah (Right)

However, the party is not taking any chances, aware that if it cannot cross the 113 mark on its own, then it has to rely on untrustworthy allies like JD(S) with which it had a love-hate relationship in the past or 'tainted' Yeddyurappa's KJP. The Congress has launched the 'Corruption Saaku' campaign in the state, asking the masses to vote out the BJP. Ironically, this comes at a time when the government it heads at the Centre coming under sharp criticism for a host of scandals including 2G, CWG, Coal-gate, Chopper-gate, Vadra-DLF land deals and so on. In its manifesto, it has promised interest free loans to the farmers. Treading a cautious line, it has refused tickets to several legislators from the BJP who had quit ahead of the polls as it believes that it has to maintain a clean image to get the votes. The heir-apparent Rahul Gandhi in his campaign in the state has repeatedly taken digs at the saffron party for its failure on multiple issues affecting the common man.

Battleground Karnataka - Part 2 (Link)

IMAGES 

(1) CM Jagdish Shettar will lead the BJP
Original: NDTV - Jagdish Shettar retains key departments like finance and mines (Link)

(2) Modi addresses a rally in Bengaluru
Original: The Hindu - Modi goes all out against the Congress (Link)

(3) Parameshwar (Left) and Siddaramiah (Right)
Original: Deccan Chronicle - BJP: Crisis of Candidates (Link)