WILL BIHAR STOP THE MODI MANIA?

AUGUST BY-POLLS WILL BE THE FIRST REAL TEST OF MODI SARKAR

Courtesy: Times of India

It has been nearly 100 days since Narendra Modi led the BJP to a handsome victory in the May 2014 General Elections. The magnitude of the win was such that a lot was expected from the former Gujarat CM after he shifted his base to New Delhi. With 282 seats in the Lower House of the Parliament, many thought that the new regime would pass certain key reforms since it was free from all sort of 'political compulsions' that the previous Central governments were subjected to by their allies. A look back at Modi's innings so far reveals that his report card has been average so far. On one side, the Centre has taken a firm stand on our Foreign Policy. The recent cancellation of Secretary level talks with Pakistan apart, the invitation to the SAARC Head of States at the time of Modi's swearing in and his visits to Bhutan and Nepal indicate a clear thought process in India's dealings with other nations in the neighborhood, something that the UPA regime hopelessly lacked. His interaction with the soldiers posted in Jammu Kashmir recently too has been appreciated. The markets also have responded well. However, one should also remember that the recent spike in incidents of communal clashes coupled with irresponsible statements made by some in the BJP and the Sangh Parivar has raised doubts about the intentions of Modi Sarkar. Prices of certain essential commodities continue to remain high whereas crime against women have increased to rise in recent months. At this juncture, the by-polls in four states will be a good indication to see if the Modi mania that had gripped the nation at least for the first half of the year continues to remain strong or not. Besides, with the recent realignment of political forces in Bihar, the results of these elections will also have a major impact on the strategies that the parties adopt in the next four months wherein at least four states will go to the polls.

With Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav joining hands, the political equations in the state of Bihar have been completely redrawn. The NDA's superlative performance here in May this year where it won 31 out of the 40 seats has raised serious question mark over the political future of the two former CMs of the state. With the JD-U being reduced to mere two seats, many believed that the Kurmi leader's decision to part ways with the BJP was a political blunder and the move would herald his downfall. Similarly, question marks were being raised about Lalu Yadav's relevance in state politics after the RJD could only bag 5 seats in spite of an alliance with the Congress. Aware of the fact that they had to work together to save their political careers, two of Bihar's biggest politicians dissolved their differences spanning nearly two decades and joined forces to combat a resilient saffron outfit which is looking much stronger following the May results. The Congress too decided to lent its support to the cause of thwarting the Modi bandwagon. In fact, this rather 'unholy' alliance has already won a few skirmishes with the NDA. After the resignation of Nitish Kumar as the CM of the state following the JD-U's rout in the Lok Sabha, the three parties worked together to make sure that the new government under the leadership of Jitan Ram Manjhi would survive the test on the floor of the state assembly. Moreover, the allies also fought the elections to the Upper House of the Parliament together and won.

With ten seats namely Narkatiaganj, Rajnagar, Jale, Chapra, Hajipur, Mohiuddinagar, Parbatta, Bhagalpur Banka and Mohania on the line, the Bihar by-polls will for sure be as intensely fought as the General Elections three months ago. In fact, the bearing that the results may have on the political scenario of Bihar is unprecedented, considering the fact that the state is scheduled to go to polls next year. Firstly, having jumped into the electoral fray together, the results will indicate if the masses have given their consent to the JD(U)-RJD combine. If the two new partners do well, they would contemplate continuing the alliance in the next state assembly elections too. On the other hand, a flop show would put serious question mark over the future of this partnership. Actually, several leaders in the JD-U have already hit out at Nitish for sealing the deal with the same party which he had earlier accused of hampering the growth of the state when it was in power. Similarly, the by-polls will also be an acid test for saffron leader Sushil Kumar Modi. With PM Narendra Modi not campaigning in the state, the outcome will also prove if the former Home Minister has the mettle and the support base to lead the saffron outfit in 2015. Finally, the victory of the former Kumar and Yadav, that is if it comes true, could also start a new trend in the country wherein regional rivals open up a united front against the BJP. The RJD supremo had already asked Mayawatiand Mulayum Singh Yadav to join hands to prevent the rise of the 'Fascist forces' in Lucknow, an idea which was considered by the SP chief but flatly rejected by Behenji. A good showing by the 'Mandal forces' may force the Dalit icon to rethink her decision.

Down south, in Karnataka, it is the Congress which is on the back foot. After registering a massive victory in the 2013 elections to the Vidhan Soudha when it swept away all the Opposition, the INC was delivered a rude shock as the BJP, now reinforced with the merger of the KJP and the BSR Congress into it, won nearly twice as many seats as the grand old party. The victory of former CM B S Yeddyurappa from Shimoga and his former cabinet colleague B S Sriramalu from Bellary has necessitated polls in the Shikaripura and Bellary(Rural) respectively. The third seat - Chikkodi-Sadalga was won by the Congress candidate Prakash Hukkeri who too made the cut to the Lok Sabha. The by-elections have become a prestige issue for CM Siddaramaih who has campaigned extensively in the three seats after there were rumors of discontent against him within the party. Though he may enjoy the complete faith of president Sonia Gandhi, he would prefer to silence his critics within the Congress ranks. With the Deve Gowda led JD-S refusing to field any candidates citing paucity of funds, the fight is between the two major national parties. Having been made the party's national vice president few days ago, it remains to be seen if the former KJP chief could pass on the electoral baton to his son B S Raghavendra who is contesting the polls as a BJP candidate. Likewise, the saffron nominee from Bellary is Sriramalu aide Obalesh. Besides the incumbent CM, the by-polls are also important for the two saffron leaders.

Like Siddaramaih, Punjab CM Parkash Singh Badal too is jittery ahead of the by-elections to the seats of Talwandi-Salboo and Patiala. If the results of the General Elections are anything to go by, the Akalis are certainly going to have a tough time in winning the two seats. If there was one party in the NDA which will be disappointed after the May 16 results, it has to be the SAD. Strong anti-incumbency against the Punjab government was the reason that the NDA could only win six of the 13 parliamentary seats from the north-western state. In fact, after the defeat of the Finance minister Arun Jaitley from Amritsar, Akali leader Naresh Gujral was frank enough to admit that the DDCA chief was paying the price for the failure of the incumbent regime. Meanwhile, the resignation of former CM Captain Amarinder Singh from the Patiala constituency following his victory over Jaitley and the defection of Talwandi-Sabo MLA Jeet Mohinder Singh to the SAD camp has resulted in the by-polls for the two constituencies. For both, the Badals as well as the Congress, a victory will be more of a morale booster since the incumbent regime has the necessary numbers on its side. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) which surprised everyone by bagging four parliamentary seats here will be the one to watch out for. It remains to be seen if the recent turmoil within the AAP will harm its chances in the only state where it is presently strong.

Lastly, elections will also be held for three seats - Vijayraghavgarh, Bahoriband and Agar in Madhya Pradesh. After sweeping the state late last year and winning a large majority of seats in the parliamentary polls, the saffron outfit is expected to bag all three seats. However, the multi-crore entrance scam came in the limelight has become a major embarrassment for MP CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan and his party. After filing a defamation case against Congress spokesperson K K Mishra is looking to extract revenge on the INC which is using this as an issue to make a comeback. And what better way to do this than winning these by-polls. As if the allegations from the Opposition benches were not enough, Union Minister and Shivraj's rival within the saffron camp - Uma Bharati too had demanded a probe into the entire fiasco. All these things apart, the BJP is expected to win all of these constituencies like it did in the last state elections. Meanwhile, the results of the by-elections in MP and other states will be out on 25^th August.

For more on the August-September 2014 By-polls, click here (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Times of India
Original: Times of India - Regrouped Lalu, Nitish take on BJP in Bihar bypoll today (Link)

KARNATAKA & LOK SABH 2014

CAN THE CONGRESS CARRY THE MOMENTUM?

After its emphatic victory in 2013 assembly polls, one would expect the Congress to do exceedingly well in Karnataka, more since the two opposition parties, namely the BJP and the JD-S were not able to even cross the half century mark. After all, if the BJP could win over sixty percent of the seats here in 2009 after managing to fall short of the majority mark by two seats in 2008 state polls, the INC with 122 MLAs in the present assembly can even better the saffron party's tally. While nobody can deny that the Congress has an upper hand, the return of the Lingayat strongman and tainted former CM B S Yeddyurappa into the BJP ranks has given it a big boost. The fight is now expected to be much closer than it was previously thought to be. Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Deve Gowda has joined the Third Front (Link) bandwagon. After the demolition in the last Lok Sabha polls and a below par performance in the election to the state legislature it seems that the Vokkaliga leader is desperately fighting for his political survival at the Center. Here is my take on the issues that will decide how Karnataka votes, my predictions of the results here and what are the things to look out for.

ISSUES

(1) Local versus National: The people of Karnataka are in a dilemma of sorts. The performance of the UPA in its second innings at the Center and that of the Congress regime in Bengaluru so far has been drastically different.

While he has been in power for around a year, the Chief Minister of Karnataka Siddaramaiah has made sure that he does not do anything to displease the masses who voted for his party in May 2013. In fact, some of the populist programmes undertaken by the new government have been major hits and are likely to help the Congress electorally like the Anna Bhagya scheme which provides rice at Re 1 per kg for people living below the poverty line. The 2014 state budget focused on farmers and of course, the minorities which form nearly 17 percent of the state's population. Although two ministers in his cabinet namely D Shivakumar and Roshan Baig have been accused in scams, Siddu has put his party on a firm footing in the state; it seems that he has justified the faith that Sonia Gandhi showed in him by appointing him for the top job despite of strong opposition from party leaders who were against an 'outsider' being made the CM after such a huge win.

Now contrast this to the UPA government in New Delhi and you know what I am talking about. Over the last four years, scam after scam running into thousands of crores of rupees have rocked the nation. At a time when corruption has become the most talked about issue in the country, the INC is facing enormous anti-incumbency and finding hard to find allies who are afraid of negative publicity if they tie-up with the grand old party. Apart from graft, the Congress led government has failed on all accounts; the country's growth rate has declined even as unemployment rates continue to be high. Overall, the image of the country as an emerging world power based on our political stability and economic success over the years has been tarnished. The bottom line is clear; the UPA II government under Manmohan Singh is one of the least popular governments in the history of the country and certainly the Congress cannot hope to win the upcoming polls by showcasing its report card.

Now you can yourself conclude what is the position of the two national parties on this topic. The BJP wants the electorate to vote keeping the UPA's performance in mind whereas the Congress wants to focus on the Siddaramiah's work in the last one year.

(2) The caste equations: The fact of the matter is that caste is one of the most dominating factors in the Karnataka politics and there is nothing to indicate that it is going to change this time around. All the three parties major parties have their own caste based vote banks that they will rely on to maximize their tally.

The Lingayats are the most dominant caste in the state and the tallest leader from this community is B S Yeddyurappa. Nobody can deny the fact that had he been with the BJP during the last state polls, the party would have easily won around 10 to 20 seats more. While the Shikaripura MLA's party - the KJP won just 6 seats, he managed to dent his former party's prospects. Now that BSY has merged the KJP into the BJP, the state leadership is hopeful that the Lingayats who had deserted them earlier will be with them this time around. The 2014 elections will be a test for Yeddy as in my opinion it will decide whether he still yields the kind of influence over his caste that he used to till some time back.

While the BJP is banking on the Lingayats, Deve Gowda is hopeful that his Vokkaliga community will stand firmly behind him. The Vokkaligas are the second biggest caste in the state and have significant presence in the southern parts of Karnataka. This region has been the traditional strong hold of the JD(S). The former Prime Minister will be hoping that he can expand his influence over other sections of the society too.

Moving over the two biggest communities in the state, Siddaramiah stitched together a powerful combination to romp home to power in 2013. Belonging to the Koruba caste, he banked on the support of the OBCs and the minorities to score an emphatic win for the Congress. After the return of BSY to the BJP, he has tried to woo the Vokkaligas by giving several soaps to the farmers in the state budget.

(3) The mis-rule of the BJP: Unfortunately for the saffron outfit, the Congress is tackling anti-incumbency at the Center by reminding the people of the BJP's mis-rule when it was in power here. What was suppose to be its model government to the south of the Vindhyas turned into a major embarrassment as numerous ministers were accused of being involved in corruption. Serving CM Yeddyurappa was jailed for his alleged role in a land grab scam. Much like the UPA regime, the saffron government in Karnataka was certainly one of the most unpopular state governments in recent times. In spite of changing three different CMs in five years, the party lost or to be frank was routed in the 2013 polls to the legislature. Before the General elections, one can expect the Congress and the JD(S) to raise this subject to counter the BJP's campaign based around Narendra Modi.

(4) The problems in Bengaluru: While Pune, Mumbai, Noida and Hyderabad offer some competition, Bengaluru - the capital of Karnataka is the premier IT destination in the country. Several MNCs, both in Information Technology and Electronics have set up their branches here, providing employment to thousands of Indians. However, over the years, the Garden City is being plagued by numerous problems most of which have been overlooked by successive regimes. While population has been growing, the infrastructure continues to be pathetic. The conditions of road network in the city is bad and projects like fly overs, under passes and Namma Metro have been delayed. Property prices have skyrocketed, the green cover is fast disappearing and the water table is depleting at an alarming rate. Moreover, a recent report in NDTV showed that the city corporation is in a debt worth several hundred crores. Since Bengaluru has five Lok Sabha seats - four in the city and one in the rural areas, the development of the city is likely to feature during the campaigns.

CONTENDERS

Karnataka is an interesting state from the political point of view since all three national fronts have some presence here. In the triangular contest, the fight is between the Congress (UPA), the BJP (NDA) and the Deve Gowda's JD(S) which is a constituent and founding member of the Third Front.

(1) Congress: The INC is in an enviable position in the state. In fact, it is one of the handful of states where the party has no major worries. All that CM Siddaramiah & Co. have to do is make sure that they do not do anything wrong and they can easily walk away with more than half of the seats from here. The state is extremely crucial for the Congress, more so after it has become clear that it is heading towards a rout in Seemandhra after the creation of Telangana (Link). Considering its precarious position in the rest of the country, the Congress would like to make up for its loses in other states by winning a major chunk of the seats here. The election in Karnataka is for the Congress to lose; if the leaders can hold their nerve the state could even end up adding the maximum number of MPs to the UPA's tally. In its first list of nominees, the party has retained all of its sitting MPs and has also roped in former Infosys CEO Nandan Nilenkani to contest from Bengaluru - South.

(2) BJP: In 2009, Karnataka was one of the states where the BJP beat the Congress hands down winning 19 of the 28 seats. Five years down the line when the national mood is largely anti-Congress, the saffron party in the state is not in a position to capitalize over it. As the elections are coming near, the party's strtegy seems to be to cut down its loses. Firstly, the BJP has managed to woo the former CM Yeddy back into its fold. Though he carries the stigma of corruption with him, BSY can help the party win a sizable number of Lingayat votes. With this development, the BJP can expect to win at least 2 to 3 more seats than it would have without Yeddyurappa by their side. Next, efforts are on to woo back Sriramalu who split from the BJP to form the BSR Congress just before the 2013 assembly polls. Also, the party is expected to drop many of its sitting MPs. Will this pay off? We need to wait and watch.

(3) Janata Dal (Secular): In 2009, the JD(S) was reduced to mere three seats and in course of time, it did lose 2 of these in by polls. With both the seats being their former strongholds, it looks like the regional outfit is battling for its survival. Just prior to the General Elections, the former PM Deve Gowda has put his weight behind the Third Front. In a loose federation like this, numbers matter. As such Gowda has his task cut out. If he can get over 10 seats, he can emerge as the 'dark horse' for the top post of the country, provided the Front can stack up the numbers. If he gets between 5 to 10 seats, he can lobby for lucrative ministry in the national cabinet. If he finishes with less than 5 seats, then he will be reduced to a minor player at the national level. In a bid to maximize its chances, the party has launched the 'Save Karnataka' campaign. Accusing both the national fronts of failing to work for the development of the state, the JD(S) is pitching itself as a strong alternative to the people of the state. The problem however is that the Gowdas lack support in all the parts in Karnataka. Besides, it does not have any mass leaders other than the father-son duo of H D Deve Gowda and H D Kumaraswamy. In 2008, just before the state elections, two of its prominent leaders, namely M P Prakash and a certain Siddaramaiah crossed over to the Congress accusing the JD(S) supremo of nepotism. While Prakash is dead, the other leader today is the CM of Karnataka. Meanwhile, the senior Gowda is set to contest from his home in Hassan even though some of his cadre wanted him to contest from some constituency in the south. His son Kumaraswamy has made it clear that he will concentrate on state politics whereas his wife Anita is not too keen to jump into the fray.

Sriramalu is certainly going to be the numero uno contender in his fortres of Bellary in case he does not merge his BSR Congress into the BJP. The Maharashtra Ekikaran Samiti might do well amongst the Marathi-speaking areas in Belgaum but is unlikely to win any seats. 

PAST PERFORMANCE

One look at the below chart shows the rise and then the ultimate fall of the BJP in the state. In 1999 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress held 18 seats in the state. In the next two General Elections, it was the saffron outfit which came out flying colors. Even in the assembly elections, the party made good progress over the years until its disastrous tenure in power. The Congress ended its seven year drought as it scored a famous win in 2013 crossing the half way mark on its own. The JD(S) has never been a big player in the state in the sense that its numbers in General Elections have always been paltry. It remains to be seen if Gowda's outfit can break the ceiling this time around.

Political Party	2013 SE	2009 GE	2008 SE	2004 GE	2004 SE	1999 LE
Congress	122	6	80	8	65	18
Bharatiya Janata Party	40	19	110	18	79	7
Janata Dal (Secular)	40	3	28	2	58	-
Others	22	-	6	-	5	3

(1) SE: State Election (Karnataka assembly has 224 seats)
(2) GE: General Election (Karnataka has 28 seats in the Lower house of the Parliament)

MY PREDICTIONS

Siddaramiah is all set to the lead Congress to a huge victory in the General Elections in 2014 in his home state. In my opinion, Karnataka is doing to be one of the few silver linings for the UPA in the next polls. On the other hand, the BJP is losing and losing heavily. Its only hope is that Yeddy's return will help it do well in the northern parts of the state. The JD(S) will struggle as it has always done in the big elections.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Congress	14-18
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	8-12
3	Janata Dal - Secular (JD - S)	1-4
4	BSR Congress	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) Which way will Sriramalu go? Bellary strongman Sriramalu is likely to return to the saffron outfit before the election. Even the BJP is keen to have him back considering his influence in his district. The Valmiki leader's home coming will further strengthen the party here. However, it is believed that Sushma Swaraj who had contested the elections from Bellary against Sonia Gandhi in 1999 is not too keen to have him back. Sriramalu is extremely close to the tainted Reddy brothers. If he returns back, the BJP will have to answer certain tough questions. However, I think this a risk it is willing to take.

(2) Sandalwood stars battle it out in Mandya: Popularly known as 'Sandalwood Queen', Kannada actress Ramya is the serving Congress MP from Mandya. It is believed that the BJP is planning to rope in 'Real Star' Upendra to contest against her. With both these actors boasting of massive popularity, the contest is expected to extremely close. Meanwhile, the JD(S) too has got in another celebrity to wrest the seat which was, till sometime back considered to be its stronghold. It is expected to nominate actress Rakshita from here. The battle between the Sandalwood stars is going to be interesting. Though many Kannada actors have joined politics in the past, they do not evoke the kind of response that actors turned politicians do in states like Andhra and Tamil Nadu.

(3) The fight over Kaveri: Do not be surprised if the dispute over sharing of waters of the river Kaveri is raised by politicians in the state before the General Elections. In February 2013, the Central government, under pressure from the Supreme Court ratified the final award of the Cauvery Water Dispute Tribunal under which Tamil Nadu is to get 58 percent of the water whereas Karnataka got 37 percent. Many in the state had opposed this but the protests died out soon in wake of the assembly elections. However, you can expect the BJP and the JD(S) to bring use this issue to counter the Congress.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

BACK INTO THE PACK

YEDDY REJOINS THE BJP

Courtesy: Yeddyurappa.in

Former Karnataka CM and Lingayat strongman B S Yeddyurappa rejoined the BJP last week, a development that could see the saffron outfit do relatively well compared to the debacle it suffered in the state polls held about six months ago. The Shikaripura MLA had joined the Karnataka Janata Party (KJP) just before the 2013 state assembly elections along with his supporters and well wishers after the high command refused to re-install him as the Chief Minister considering the allegations of corruption levied against him; in fact, in one such case, he was arrested and jailed in October 2011 after the state Lokayukta found of guilty of illegally denotifying land in Bengaluru to favor his son. Miffed by his party's decision to sideline him, he had vowed to teach the BJP a lesson, hopeful that his caste which is the biggest in Karnataka will stick with him. At that same time, with many pundits expecting a hung assembly, it was believed that the KJP could emerge as the Kingmaker. While he did manage to hit the BJP hard in many places, especially in the north, Yeddy's outfit got just six seats with many of his trusted aides including Shobha Karandalaje biting the dust. As Congress' Siddaramaih was crowned, the saffron party relegated to third spot and Yeddy being a dud, one thing was clear - the BJP and its former state chief had to mend their differences in order to survive in the southern state. The question was not why... it was when. The elevation of Narendra Modi who is said to be close to BSY, within the party and the end of Advani era further helped this cause since the patriarch had been quite vocal in his criticism of the former CM. Finally, in January 2014, the Lingayat leader rejoined the party that he had built in the state over period spanning almost four decades in what was a rather low key ceremony attended by his rivals including Sadanand Gowda, Jagdish Shettar and bete noire Ananth Kumar. Along with him, three more KJP MLAs were joined the BJP; two more legislators B R Patil (Aland) and Guru Patil (Shahpur) have decided to remain independent for the time being.  

The development is a big boost for the BJP considering the route it had to face in the 2013 polls. Such was the fate of the party that it lost the race to become the primary opposition to the Janata Dal - Secular (JD-S). The rejoining of the KJP supremo will help strengthen the outfit, specially in North Karnataka where the Lingayat community is predominant. An analysis of the state results shows that the BJP lost about 30 to 35 seats due to a split of votes between it and the KJP, with a majority of these seats eventually going to the Congress. While it may not have dramatically changed the game, the fact remains that had BSY still be in the saffron camp, the BJP would have easily crossed the 60 mark. In the hindsight, considering the kind of regime that they gave to Kannadigas in those 5 disastrous years, I believe the BJP definitely deserved the drubbing that they got. Meanwhile, BSY has sounded the electoral bugle. He has set a target of 20 seats; it will be quite an achievement even if the saffron party gets past the two-digit mark. Although, 2009 was a nightmare for the BJP, it did extremely well in Karnataka, bagging 18 of the 28 seats. However, this time around, the Congress is hopeful of riding on the wave in its favor and win over 15 seats. The entry of Yeddy may make it a more even contest now. Secondly, in my opinion, it is a shot in the arm for Narendra Modi. The appointment of the Gujarat CM at the helm of affairs before the 2014 general elections has been the key reason for the re-entry of the Lingayat leader. The whole affair is a proof that his anointment has helped further strengthen the party organization and rejuvenate the cadre. The Hindutva strongman will hope that BSY's presence will help the BJP perform well in Karnataka and help him in his mission to get 272+ seats.

Now, the rejoining of Yeddy into the BJP has its own set of liabilities too. The manner in which the party leadership sought to keep the whole thing a simple affair rather than planning a huge rally to welcome its former chief in the state, something you might have expected to happen in Indian politics, says it all. Although he may have exonerated of most of the charges framed against him, Yeddyurappa has a public image of being corrupt and greedy. The numerous cases against him become a cause of embarrassment for party and took the sting off their attack on the scams unearthed during UPA II at the Centre. At a time when corruption is becoming a major electoral issue after years, the return of BSY could dent the BJP's image. Secondly, another headache for the state leadership will be to keep the organization united. When he stepped down from the post of the Chief Minister, he chose his close aide D V Sadanand Gowda - a Vokkaliga, a clear move to keep away other Lingayat leaders from gaining prominence. However, when it became clear that DVS would not act like his pawn, BSY pressurized the party to have him replaced with Jagdish Shettar. A few months later though, the duo fought and after the BJP high command refused to sack Shettar, Yeddy walked out. In the months before the elections, DVS and Shettar had publicly taken on BSY, claiming that his departure had cleansed the saffron outfit. While the two were present at the occasion, it remains to be seen whether they are ready to forget the past and work together. However, what remains to be seen is whether BSY and Ananth Kumar can dissolve their differences. The fiction between the two is a stuff of legends in party circles. The performance of the BJP will largely depend on how they can curb their individual differences for the greater cause. And lastly, a third reason for the party's headache ahead of the General elections might be Yeddyurappa's authoritarian attitude. It is believed that just in about a week of the development, he has started throwing around his weight and has asked the party to drop as many as 10 sitting MPs including some big names - Prahalad Joshi (Dharwad), Ananthkumar Hegde (North Kanara), Suresh Angadi (Belgaum), P C Mohan (Bangalore - Central) and Chandre Gowda (Bangalore - North). The dropping of such heavyweights may lead to internal rebellion jeopardizing the party' plans altogether. Certainly, the return of Yeddyurappa back into the saffron camp is a calculated risk. Whether it pays off or further plunges damages the prospects of the party in Karnataka need to be seen.

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Yeddyurappa.in
Source: B S Yeddyurappa (Link)

BABUS ON A TOUR

MLAs PLAN A FOREIGN TOUR AS DROUGHT HITS KARNATAKA

While the British government has tried to correct a mistake from the past by granting a royal pardon to the great Alan Turing (Link), it seems that the netas back home have not learnt their lessons. It was in 2012, that a group of MLAs from Karnataka were caught by the media 'holidaying' in Argentina while on a supposed 'study tour' to the South American country even as large parts of the state were reeling under drought. The plea by the then CM Jagdish Shettar to his colleagues in the Vidhan Sabha to refrain from the foreign visit fell on deaf ears as legislators spanning across political parties shamelessly enjoyed their vacation in Latin America, neglecting the duties towards the people who they had sworn to serve. Although it has been just over an year after that infamous incident came into the limelight, a period that witnessed a change of regime in Bengaluru, there has not been much change in the mindset of our politicians who think they can do whatever they want and then get away with it. Earlier this week, it was reported that a contingent of 18 MLAs were planning a junket to the same destination and the itinerary is said to include a tour of the Amazonian forests, shopping in Rio, watching samba and tango and the icing on the cake - a desert safari in Dubai on the way back. Considering that over 25 per cent of the talukas in the state are facing acute shortage of water, there has been an outrage over the trip. Though CM Siddaramiah has tried to wash his hands off the matter and the Opposition has asked its members to opt out, the audacity of our elected representatives in justifying the spending of tax payers hard earned money on such 'useless' outings is an insult to the people of the largest democracy in the world.

It is indeed deeply saddening that a country that produced stalwarts like Mahatma Gandhi, Subash Chandra Bose and Vinoba Bhave is today governed by crooks who seem to have forgotten all their responsibilities towards the electorate. While corruption has spread like cancer, we are fast becoming a morally deficient nation. The justification given by Congress MLA Mallikaiah Guttedar who also heads the Legislative Committee that planned this trip is shocking to say the least. While 'complaining' that MLAs get to go on a foreign tour only once unlike MPs who get this privilege several times in their tenure, Guttedar said that spending a few lakhs on this junket out of the state budget of 1.21 lakh crore is not a big deal. Speaking to reporters, he explained that the reason for the tour was to study the water falls system of Amazon and sporting activity.  He also said that he had learned a lot of things from his earlier tour to the US. And finally like all politicians, he believed that it was a conspiracy that such incidents are only reported from Karnataka whereas trips are undertaken by legislators in all other states. Wow!!! At a time when there is paucity of water both for people and cattle in the state, common sense tells us that it will be better if our babus can think of ideas to solve this problem. In fact, the same money can be used for fruitful purposes like compensating farmers whose crops have failed or for implementing measures like improving irrigation and promoting rain water harvesting. Desert safari can also be done in Thar; not only will this turn out to be cheaper, it will be a fillip to domestic tourism. And finally, our MLAs should concentrate on their constituencies and improve the lives of the people who voted them to power rather than undertaking tours to foreign nations.

I am tempted to view this entire episode against the backdrop of the coming to power of the Aam Admi Party (AAP) government in Delhi. Barely one year after he flouted a new outfit with the aim of cleansing the entire system, former IRS officer and Anna lieutenant Arvind Kejriwal beat three time Delhi CM Sheila Dixit by a margin of over 27,000 votes as the AAP bagged a whopping 28 seats in the recently concluded Delhi assembly elections. Though the BJP finished as the single largest party in the new legislature, its failure to go past the majority mark on its own in spite of the numerous scams that hit the incumbent government in the last few years is something that its leaders have to retrospect upon. The people of the national capital have made a clear choice and more importantly sent a strong message - they do not mind handling the reins of the government to first timers if they feel they are honest. And after coming to power, Kejriwal has started delivering almost immediately - doing away with red beacons for ministers and fulfilling the pre-poll promise of providing free water to private homes. Not only the AAP, voters do not mind re-electing their leaders who are known for good governance as it happened in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh some time back. The verdict of the final leg of the state elections should be a warning bell for petty MLAs like Guttedar & Co. If they believe that their actions will not affect their poll prospects then they are wrong. Today's voter is highly aware of the thing that happen around him and it is in their interest if our political parties and their members don't take them for granted. If they do so, then the people will teach them a lesson.

BATTLEGROUND KARNATAKA - PART 2

THE QUADRIPARTITE BATTLE FOR POWER

However, the problem plaguing the Congress is the plethora of Chief Ministerial candidates and the friction amongst them which has jeopardized the entire process of ticket distibution with each leader wanting their confidantes to be the official nominees of the party. Siddaramaiah, the leader of opposition in the outgoing assembly is the front runner in the race. Belonging to the 80 lakh strong Kuruba Gowda caste,

Rahul at a rally in Dharwad

he has considerable influence in the Old Mysore region and has served as the Deputy CM twice in the past. However,the biggest problem for him is that since he joined the INC after falling apart with his mentor Deve Gowda in 2008, many look upon him as an outsider and prefer a Gandhi-Nehru loyalist for the post. Enter Dr. G Parameshwar who was hand picked by Sonia Gandhi to head the KPCC in 2010. Being a multiple time MLA and a fresh face, he does enjoy the support of many insiders. 'Rebel star' and Kannada film star Ambareesh also nurtures ambitions to occupy the CM's chair. With the death of Dr. Rajkumar and Vishnu Vardhan, he is regarded by many as the tallest star in the Kannada film industry today. However, his brash temperament and limited influence in the Mysore region may go against him. S M Krishna, the former External Affairs minister who has served as the CM from 1999 to 2004, has lost much of his former charisma but is still quite popular, especially in the capital Bengaluru which was developed a lot under his tenure. In case, no consensus emerges, he may be called up as the 'please-all' candidate. Leaders from Hyderabad-Karnataka region like Union Labour Minister Malikarjuna Kharge and former CM Dharam Singh are the dark horses in the race for the throne.

The father-son duo of Deve Gowda and H D Kumaraswamy are working tirelessly to replicate in Karnataka what the Yadavs (Mulayum-Akhilesh) and the Badals (Parkash-Sukhbir) did in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab respectively. In his 20 month long stint as the CM, some of the initiatives launched by the junior Gowda were well received by the people. No one can deny that the withdrawal of support to the BSY government in 2008 by the JD(S) which was projected as a betrayal by the BJP won it sympathy votes. Not so surprisingly, the party dropped 31 seats to finish with just 28 in the last elections. Even in

The Gowdas

2009 Lok Sabha, the JD(S) could win only 3 seats. This time though, the mood is upbeat and the Gowdas are trying their best to woo the voters even beyond their traditional bastion of Southern Karnataka and its core vote bank - the Vokkaliggas and become a strong third alternative to the people of the state. The party manifesto has several sops to the farmers, weavers and fishermen. The 'Secular' party has promised funds for the development of minorities and effectively tackle corruption. By declaring its candidate list after the two national parties, it has accommodated several dissident leaders from these outfits. If the JD(S) manages to get over 60 seats and the Congress fails to get a simple majority, then it will emerge as a key player in the post poll scenario. Some reports suggest that, the Gowdas may not be averse to ally with the BJP if that is an option to come to power. Unlike the Congress, the JD(S) does not have an recognized faces apart from the Gowda duo. In fact, two of its other prominent faces - Siddaramaiah and late M P Prakash had quit in 2008 after they realized that the former PM would only support his own son as the next chief. While this prevents any infighting, the sad part for the party is that it is heavily reliant on the top two for campaigning.

Many believe that in 2013 assembly elections, Yeddyurappa is likely to emerge as the King-maker, all the more because of the four way contest that the state will witness. After being side-lined in the party that he had built in the state, the Lingayyat strongman joined the Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) founded by Padmanabha Prasanna in November last year. Soon a string of loyalist, right from ministers in the government to corporators and  ordinary workers broke their association with the BJP and followed their leader into his new party. Yeddy's outfit has had a pretty good start as it managed to do fairly well in the local polls, managing to eat into the saffron outfit's vote share. By praising Sonia Gandhi before jumping to KJP, it is believed that he is keeping all his options open and might fill in the numbers in case the party falls short of the magic number. Though, he may vehemently deny it, allying with the BJP may not be difficult either. Thus, he is poised to become the game-changer in this elections in case of a hung assembly which is the most likely scenario if not for a Congress victory. However, allying with KJP may not be so easy. The long list of illegal land deals that he and his family members are accused of will hurt both the KJP and its future ally. Also, as the BJP leadership will tell, he is a tough nut to crack and will be difficult to deal with. One should not forget that besides DVS and Shettar, the KJP boss even had founder Prasanna thrown out of the party.

Yeddy knows that by leaving the BJP, he has taken the biggest gamble of his political career and a lot depends on the May 8 results. The Linggayyat leader who was known to given liberal grants to Mutts and seers during his tenure as the CM still has lots of friends in religious circles, all of whom are now

KJP supremo Yeddyurappa

asking their disciples to vote for him. Next, he is trying hard to get the support of the Muslim community which is traditional loyal to the Congress. Audacious as it may sound, Yedyurappa is asking the masses to vote for him and not the candidate. Even the manifesto is full of sops to appease all sections of the society, from women to farmers, from Christians whose churches were robbed in his tenure to the old. But the shrewd politician that he is, Yeddy knows that winning anything above 20 seats will not be easy. Four of his blue-eyed boys have ditched him, probably because they fear the influence that Shobha Karandalaje welds over the KJP chief. If the BJP manages to do the impossible and comes back to power and if the KJP gets less than 15 seats then he will have no option but to go back to his old party. In case, the Congress sweeps the polls, then Yeddy has to get over 20 seats to stay relevant. While a hung assembly will make him the most important politician in the state, any other result will hurt him in the long run. Finally, if he bags 30 odd seats in the new assembly, then he may well lead the Third Front in the 2014 general elections, something which he says is his aim.

Finally, there are several other smaller parties and a few national parties that have virtually no presence in the state that are contesting the elections. B Sriramalu who has floated his own party - the BSR Congress is expected to do well in Bellary region. With the Reddy brothers throwing their weight and money power behind him, the Nayaka leader is touring the state, hoping to grab as many seats as possible in his kitty. The Loksatta Party founded by former bureaucrat Jaiprakash Narayan, which has promised 'clean' politics is making its debut. Dalit leader and BSP supremo Mayawati has also addressed rallies in Northern Karnataka where she was quizzed by EC officials for carrying large sum of money with her. Besides, other national parties like the Samajwadi Party, Nationalist Congress Party, Communist Party of India (Marxist) and Janata Dal (United) have fielded their candidates in different parts of the state. The upcoming polls will be the most important in the history of Karnataka. While it is rich in natural resources and is the premiere IT destination of the country, the state has a long way to go as it continues to be plagued with frequent droughts, poverty and inequality. Apart from this, corruption has threatened to derail infrastructure development, especially in 'hi-tech city' Bengaluru. The people of Karnataka have to make the right choice so that the prestige of their state is restored.

Battleground Karnataka - Part 1 (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Rahul at a rally in Dharwad
Original: Rediff - Rahul turns 40 (Link)

(2) The Gowdas
Original: The Gowda merry go round (Link)

(3) KJP supremo Yeddyurappa
Original: Yeddyurappa.in (Link)

BATTLEGROUND KARNATAKA - PART 1

THE QUADRIPARTITE BATTLE FOR POWER

With the people from the north eastern states re-electing their incumbent governments to power, the round one of the 2013 assembly polls is over and the action has now shifted to Karnataka which is scheduled to go to the polls on 5 May. As this is the first big state on the line this year, the contest is heating up and the fight is expected to get uglier by the day. The results of the local elections held about two months ago in the various cities and towns across Karnataka indicates an anti-BJP

CM Jagdish Shettar will lead the BJP

wave which is primarily benefiting the principal Opposition party - the Congress. Sensing victory, the INC is trying to build on the advantage in its attempt to form a majority regime on its own without the need of any unholy alliances. On the contrary, the BJP which is hit by numerous corruption scandals and defection is trying hard to prevent desertion of top leaders and more importantly the voters to other outfits. JD(S) chief Kumarswamy who has topped a recent poll as the preferred Chief Ministerial candidate of the electorate is highlighting the failures of the national parties to deliver on their promises in the past while asking the masses to give him a second shot at the top post. With the pundits predicting a hung assembly, the new entrants in the fray - former CM Yeddyurappa's KJP and Bellary strongman Sriramalu's BSR Congress are hoping to emerge as the King-makers so that can make the next government dance to their whims and fancies. Whether the predictions come true or not, it seems as though the Karnataka elections will probably be the most closely contested polls of this year and the outcome here will certainly have a bearing on how the fight for the next Lok Sabha shapes up.

In 2008, as the BJP swept the state winning 110 of the 224 seats on the line, many of its well wishers hoped that its 'model government' here would help it expand in other southern states. Five years down the line, it seems as if the regime which saw as many as three different CMs besides innumerable scandals will arguably be a top contender for the tag of the worst government in the history of Karnataka. Soon after assuming power, the top leadership of the party launched the infamous 'Operation Kamal (Lotus)' hoping to increase its strength in the Vidhan Soudha, wherein opposing MLAs were convinced to resign and then contest on BJP ticket from their respective constituencies. Though the Congress had employed such a strategy in Goa after they managed to topple the then Parrikar government in 2005, the manner in which Yeddy & Co. went about with this experiment did raise suspicion about huge sums of money being used to influence sitting legislators. Few months down the line, with the powerful and unbelievably rich Reddy brothers coming under the scanner on allegation of illegal mining and exporting of iron ore, the BJP was caught in a catch 22 situation as sacking Janardhan Reddy would cause a vertical split in their ranks whereas not taking any action would make the party look like being soft on corruption thereby affecting its own campaign against scams perpetrated by the UPA government at the Centre. Though Yeddyurappa managed to avert this crisis, the Lokayukta report indicting him of making profits through illegal land deals in Bengaluru was indeed a major embarrassment, compounded by his flat refusal to resign from his post inspite of pressure from the top leadership including patriarch Lal Krishna Advani and his media spats with Justice Hegde.

Eventually, the Shikaripur MLA was arrested and jailed, thereby becoming the first CM in the history of the country to be put behind the bars. With the calls for his head growing louder by the day and no alternative left, BSY finally put down his papers and entrusted his beloved post to his trusted aide D V Sadanand Gowda, who was the state president during the BJP's spectacular victory in 2008. It is believed that Yeddy had propped up Sadanand Gowda, a Vokkaligga as he closely

Modi addresses a rally in Bengaluru

guarded his image as the top leader of the Lingayyat community - the largest caste in the state, which is his biggest USP. However, things soon turned sour between the two and the former threatened to pull down the government which he had himself headed in the past. To prevent dissident activities, the party bowed to his demands and brought another of his former lieutenant Jagdish Shettar - this time a Lingayat to power. Not so surprisingly, the two fell apart soon and BSY quit the party that he had so pain stackingly established in the state over a period spanning nearly four decades and joined the KJP. Several leaders including former minister Shobha Karandalaje followed him into the new party. Besides, the 'porngate scandal' wherein three legislators were seen watching sleaze inside the Legislative Assembly, the revolt of B Sriramalu and the subsequent rout in Bellary Rural by-elections, the court case involving the disqualification of 11 party rebels and five independent MLAs and the desecration of churches in South Kanara further added to the woes of the premiere BJP government south of the Vindhyas.

There were two reasons for saffron outfit's resounding win in 2008 - the Lingayyat community's backing of BSY and the money power of the Reddy brothers. This time around though, with both Yeddyurappa and Sriramalu out of the BJP, the party is taking several steps to improve its performance, especially after the setback in the local elections. Firstly, Pralhad Joshi - the Member of Parliament from Dharwad was named as the new state president which is seen as a move to strengthen its position in northern parts of the state where the KJP is giving it tough competition. Joshi who had led the agitation to hoist the national flag at the Idgah Maidan in Hubli has both, a clean image and Hindutva past and hence was chosen over the likes of DVS and Eshwarappa. Secondly, in a bold move, the party had made Jagdish Shettar its leader ahead of the polls, hoping to retain the Lingayyat vote bank that had rallied behind it in the past. By naming their chief ministerial candidate, the BJP has virtually removed all scope of infighting in its ranks and made ticket distribution process much easier, something which has made life difficult for the INC. Trying hard to wash away the taint of corruption and mis-administration, the party is trying to project that it has been cleansed after the departure of BSY and the Reddys. Besides, it has also done something that parties in India rarely do with president Rajnath Singh saying a sorry for the failure to provide a stable government in Karnataka in the last five years. While this apology may be too little too late, nonetheless it is a positive gesture. The state leadership has managed to convince Yeddy loyalists - Basvaraj Bommai, Umesh Katti, Murugesh Nirani and V Somanna to stay back giving a big blow to the KJP. The manifesto includes a host of freebies like subsidized rice for the poor and laptops for students of standard XII. Also, it has roped in star campaigner Narendra Modi to address rallies in Bengaluru, Belgaum and Mangalore which has attracted sizable crowds.

The Congress in Karnataka, on the other hand, finds itself in the ideal situation as most of the opinion polls predict it to emerge close to the majority mark if not cross it comfortably. With the incumbent regime paralyzed by one scandal after another, much like the UPA at the Centre, it looks like the elections are INC's to lose. 

Parameshwar (Left) and Siddaramiah (Right)

However, the party is not taking any chances, aware that if it cannot cross the 113 mark on its own, then it has to rely on untrustworthy allies like JD(S) with which it had a love-hate relationship in the past or 'tainted' Yeddyurappa's KJP. The Congress has launched the 'Corruption Saaku' campaign in the state, asking the masses to vote out the BJP. Ironically, this comes at a time when the government it heads at the Centre coming under sharp criticism for a host of scandals including 2G, CWG, Coal-gate, Chopper-gate, Vadra-DLF land deals and so on. In its manifesto, it has promised interest free loans to the farmers. Treading a cautious line, it has refused tickets to several legislators from the BJP who had quit ahead of the polls as it believes that it has to maintain a clean image to get the votes. The heir-apparent Rahul Gandhi in his campaign in the state has repeatedly taken digs at the saffron party for its failure on multiple issues affecting the common man.

Battleground Karnataka - Part 2 (Link)

IMAGES 

(1) CM Jagdish Shettar will lead the BJP
Original: NDTV - Jagdish Shettar retains key departments like finance and mines (Link)

(2) Modi addresses a rally in Bengaluru
Original: The Hindu - Modi goes all out against the Congress (Link)

(3) Parameshwar (Left) and Siddaramiah (Right)
Original: Deccan Chronicle - BJP: Crisis of Candidates (Link)