ABHIPRAI: BJD

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May 07, 2014

ODISHA & LOK SABHA 2014

WILL NAVIN BABU SAVE HIS TURF?

The battle for Odisha is one of the big talking points of this elections considering the fact that the eastern state will go to the polls later this year. All eyes are on the incumbent CM Navin Patnaik and many are wondering if he will be able to continue with his 14 year long rule considering that he is fighting both the BJP and the Congress. Having been a part of the BJP-led NDA, the BJD supremo broke off all ties with the saffron camp in 2008, accusing the latter of having a hand in the communal clashes in Kandhamal. The BJP was hopeful that regional player would fall short of majority in the legislative assembly on its own and would have to join hands with it. However, the regional outfit surprised everyone as it won two-thirds majority on its own. This time around though, there are speculations that anti-incumbency and the hype over the candidature of Narendra Modi will help benefit the BJP. In this scenario, Patnaik may be forced to rethink his strategy and may even come back to the NDA to help his prospects in the state. Also, in case the UPA manages to get a third straight mandate, he may extend external support to his old foe which he has made more or less irrelevant in the state. And finally, though he has not officially joined hands with the Third Front, he is considered by many to be one of the consensus candidates to the post of the Prime Minister, that is of course if the BJD can win 15 or more seats.

ISSUES

(1) The performance of the Patnaik regime: Having been in power since March 2000, the performance of Navin Patnaik as the CM of Odisha over the last 14 years is going to b the most important poll issue this elections. Over the years, he has built up his image as a pro-development, anti-corrupt and a secular leader. In his current term, the evacuation attempt undertaken by his government during the 2013 Phylin cyclone (Link) was much appreciated. At the same time, his name has figured in the multi-crore coal block allocation scam and it was speculated that the CBI was set to question him over a letter he had written to the Centre asking them to re-exam the request made by Hindalco. Besides, combating anti-incumbency of nearly three terms may be a challenge especially in the Union Elections where unlike in the state, the national parties are still strong.

(2) Patnaik versus Modi: Now it is clear that the Odisha CM is the most popular leader in the state. Besides the reason for him to be at the helm of affairs for so is the lack of credible leaders either in the Congress or in the BJP. However, the biggest threat to the BJD chief is his counterpart from Gujarat. Like in many parts of the country, the Modi wave is pretty strong in some pockets in the state and it is here that the saffron outfit is hoping to do well in the Lok Sabha polls. Modi though has been rather soft on Patnaik, probably indicating a return of the BJD to the NDA soon.

CONTENDERS

(1) Biju Janata Dal (BJD): There is no doubt as to which party will finish at the pole position both in the Lok Sabha as well as the legislative assembly as far as Odisha is concerned. However, the question is whether the party will be able to hold on to its impressive tally of 2009, given the fact that the BJP under Modi may have finally come out of Patnaik’s shadow. The last term had its own share of difficulties for Navin Patnaik. He survived an attempted coup by his long-time mentor Pyari Mohan Mohapatra and battled allegations of corruption in allocation of coal blocks. Also, his absence at the New Delhi conference in February this year where the ‘Third Front’ (Link) was ‘formalized’ was interpreted by some as a move to send feelers to the NDA. Meanwhile the party’s candidates include former captain of the Indian Hockey Team Dilip Tirkey (Sundergarh), Odiya film star Siddhant Mohapatra (Barhampur) and has retained at least 7 of its 14 incumbents including Baijayant Panda (Kendrapara), Pinaki Misra (Puri) and Prasanna Kumar Patasani (Bhubaneshwar).

(2) Congress: In the 11 years that the BJD and the BJP fought together, the INC was nearly decimated in the state. However, following the split in the NDA in 2008, the grand old party did rather well, finishing with its highest tally in the last four polls. It was also able to end up as a runner-ups to the BJD in the state elections of 2009. However, the situation in 2014 is not in the favor of the Congress. Navin continues to be strong; the BJP is on the up surge whereas the INC is facing a strong anti-incumbency wave. Adding to it is the deep rooted factionalism in the state leadership. Prominent party candidates for the General polls include incumbents Hemananda Biswal (Sundergarh), Amarnath Pradhan (Sambhalpur), Pradip Majhi (Nabarangapur) and Bhakta Charan Das (Kalanidhi). Besides, Union Minister of State and MP from Balasore - Srikant Jena too has been retained in spite of him not being keen to fight elections according to some reports.

(3) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): The saffronists did pretty well in the eastern state while it fought in coalition with the BJD. In 2009 though, the BJP was expected to break the ruling party's dominance in the state. However, what followed next was a disaster with the party finishing on a duck. Even in the state assembly, its tally was a paltry figure of 6. Anyway, many are believing that the party will do what it failed to do last time. If the saffron outfit can win say about 5 seats, it will emerge as the biggest threat to Navin's bid for a successive fourth term. The BJP held talks with several smaller regional parties to boost its chances but the alliances failed to materialize since it wanted the leaders of many of these to fight under its election symbol. In fact, if the NDA comes to power and does well in Odisha, you can expect the party to put up a good campaign against the BJD. Amongst the BJP's nominees are Pruthwiraj Harichandan (Bhubaneswar), Sameer Dey (Cuttack), Sukanta Panigrahi (Kandhamal), Ashok Sahu (Puri) and Sarat Dash (Bhadrak).

Others: There are host of new regional parties that have merged on the political landscape in Odisha who have thrown their hat in the ring. Former leader of the BJD in the Rajya Sabha and Navin's political mentor Pyari Mohan Mohapatre launched the Odisha Jana Morcha (OJM) after he was was expelled from the party for allegedly attempting a coup against the incumbent CM while he was on a foreign visit last year. While there were reports that the BJP was keen to join hands with him, the party cadre were strictly against it as they saw Mohapatra as the man behind the BJD-BJP split in 2008. The OJM was dealt a severe blow in March when two of its top leaders - Vice President Mihir Mohanty and General Secretary Bhagirathi Kar went back to the BJD.

Two former Congressmen Kharavel Swain of the Utkal Bharat (UB) and Soumya Ranjan Patnaik of the Ama Odisha (AO) have decided to join hands and fight the two upcoming elections under a common electoral symbol - the Earthen pot. Earlier, both these parties were expected to be a part of the NDA. Since the saffron outfit insisted on a merge prior to the polls, the talks seem to have failed. Similarly, the Samata Kranti Dal (SKD) launched by former BJD MP Braja Kishor Tripathy too decided to go alone after seat sharing arrangements with the saffron camp failed to materialize. The Kejriwal led Aam Admi Party (AAP) too is making its debut here. However, it was caught in a controversy after it fielded Narendra Mohanty from Kandhamal who has several criminal cases against him. Though his candidature was later withdrawn, the damage seems to have been done already.

PAST PERFORMANCE

In 1996, the INC was the dominant player here with an amazing tally of 16 out of 21 seats. By the next elections held two years later, the BJD-BJP swept the state, turning the tables on the Congress. In the following year, the partners in the NDA recorded their best performance in Odisha, winning 19 out of the 21 parliamentary seats from here. In 2004 too, the alliance did well even as the BJP dropped two seats. Last time, after the split in the BJP-BJD partnership, the INC tripled its tally to finish with 6 seats. Patnaik's outfit recorded its best performance ever, bagging 14 seats. The saffron party on the other hand failed to even open its account.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Biju Janata Dal (BJD)	14	11	10	9	4
Congress	6	2	2	5	16
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	-	7	9	7	-
Others	1	1	-	-	-

MY PREDICTIONS

The BJD will continue to be the single largest party in the state even though it may drop a few seats. However, the party to watch out for this elections in Odisha is the BJP. The saffron outfit, in my opinion will be the surprise factor. The 2014 Lok Sabha may be the chance when the party will break big. Of course, there were similar speculations in 2009 too. However, this time around, the situation seems to be drastically different. The Congress on the other hand, will drop seats for sure.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Biju Janata Dal (BJD)	10-14
2	Congress	2-4
3	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	3-6
4	Others	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) Which way will Patnaik go? This is one of the biggest debates this election season. The options in front of Patnaik are many. In case the BJP does well, say it wins 4 or 5 seats in Odisha and if the NDA manages to form the next government in New Delhi, you can expect him to join hands with the saffron outfit. Similarly, if the UPA wins a third straight term, Patnaik might give it outside support. Also, he may well be an important constituent of the Third Front if the regional parties can stitch together an alliance to keep the national parties out of power. And the cunning politician that he is, he may well maintain distance from all three major coalitions if he can win the 2014 state elections on his own.

(2) Can the BJP break big? The 2014 Lok Sabha elections could be the big break that the saffron party needs in Odisha to enhance its electoral prospects. Following a rather ugly divorce with the BJD after a honeymoon spanning nearly 11 years, the saffronists got a rude shock as they drew a blank first in 2009 General polls and then dropped 26 seats to finish with a paltry figure of 6 in the last state elections. However, many believe that the Modi wave may give it the fillip it needs here. While it may still not be able to stall the Patnaik jaggernaut, it is set to relegate the Congress to the third position. Probably, the best case scenario for the outfit will be if the incumbent CM falls short of a simple majority, thereby needing the help of the BJP to form the next government. Of course, support to the Modi led central government in return will be a pre-requisite for this.

(3) The fate of smaller parties: While the BJD has been the dominant player in the state elections for nearly 15 years, it will be interesting to see how the other smaller players will perform. These include Pyari Mohan Mohapatra's Odisha Jana Morcha, Swain's Utkal Bharat, Tripathy's Samata Kranti Dal and Soumya Patnaik's Ama Odisha. Though they may not win any seat in the Parliament, the vote share they get will help us get an idea of their performance in the state elections.

March 10, 2014

SHATTERED

THE THIRD FRONT IS COLLAPSING EVEN BEFORE THE ELECTIONS

While I do not have any love either for the BJP or the Congress, I have special hatred reserved for the Third Front. The very thought of this Third Front - a lose federation of influential regional satraps with no common 'ideology' or 'vision', 'uniting' with the sole aim of grabbing power at the Centre in a bid to serve their own selfish political interests freaks me out. I mean, a federal government at New Delhi is the last thing that the country needs, especially after the mis-rule of the Manmohan Singh regime in its second term. Of course, this does not mean that I endorse either Modi or his outfit. Meanwhile, in a post that I had written barely a month back (Link), I had given five reasons as to why I think that the much hyped Third Front is doomed, if and when it comes to power. Little did I know that the many constituents of this coalition would quarrel and fall apart in just a matter of days. With elections about a month away, it seems that the federal experiment has flopped.

Ironically, the first cracks were visible when the regional parties came together to officially announce the alliance in the last days of February. A show of strength ended as a major embarrassment with two original members - the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) deciding to stay away. Considering that Navin Patnaik is one of the most strongest regional leader in the country, the absence of him or any other leader from his party at this crucial meeting is a major jolt to the Third Front. Moreover, the Orissa CM's remark that 'the front was still in its early days' has added salt to the wound. Forget the federal alliance, Patnaik's statement has led to speculations that he is ready to join the NDA or the UPA after the results. The AGP might not be on an extremely strong wicket at present, but its refusal to be a part of the Left led formation too has taken some sheen away from the Third Front.

The first jolt to the front came when the seat sharing talks between J Jayalalitha's AIADMK and the two Left parties broke down. The CPI and the CPM wanted three seats each whereas Amma was ready to concede just two seats. You can easily understand the Tamil Nadu CM's stand. Amma has been trying hard to project herself as a strong candidate for the job of the Prime Minister. The wily politician understands that with the DMK in tatters and Congress fighting the polls all alone, she has a golden opportunity to sweep the 39 seats in her state, plus Pondicherry. The more seats that she has with her, the better it is for her political ambitions post 2014 elections. With the talks reaching a deadlock, Jaya decided to go solo, dumping the Left in the bargain. A few days back, Bengal CM Mamata has made it clear that she will support Amma's candidature for the PM's post in case she can get the numbers. By fishing in troubled waters, Bannerjee is further trying alienate her arch rival - the Left.

The Third Front has to get its house in order soon, if it has to emerge as a strong alternative to the NDA and the UPA. Seat sharing talks between major players like the SP, the JD(U) and the Left have not yet begun. Considering the bitter taste that talks with the AIADMK has left, you can expect the Left to take its time. However, all is not over as yet. YSR Congress is said to have opened communication channels with the Communists. In all, it seems that the eternal dream of the federalist may not come true, at least in 2014. Thank God!

March 09, 2014

BJP AHEAD OF THE CONGRESS...

IN THE RACE FOR ALLIES

Courtesy: IBN Live/Reuters

When the BJP decided to take a gamble by appointing Narendra Modi, first as the chief of its campaign for the Lok Sabha polls and then as its nominee for the post of the Prime Minister, many thought it would never get any allies and would thus warm the Opposition benches for another five years in the Parliament. After all, in this era of coalition politics where no party can think of crossing the half way mark on its own, it is but imperative to have powerful regional satraps on one's side. In fact, in one of the articles that I had written post Modi's anointment (Link), I had mentioned that the stigma of the 2002 Gujarat riots could keep several powerful regional players away from doing any kind of business with the NDA. With Nitish Kumar's JD(U) walking out of the BJP led coalition, it seemed that the saffron outfit was fighting a battle that it was destined to lose. Six months down the line, things have changed. Of course, I need to admit that I was wrong in thinking that a NDA headed by Modi would ever grow beyond three or four parties.

While Nitish Kumar and certain segments within the BJP including the party patriarch Lal Krishna Advani may have been against his appointment, the Gujarat Chief Minister must be given credit for galvanizing a party that seemed to be heading towards doom. Considering his strong Hindutva image, he helped consolidate the party's core vote bank. Next, with a strong leader at the helm of affairs, the war of succession amongst the BJP's second generation leaders too has been brushed aside at the moment. The differences have been dissolved, at least for the time being, and the party has stood solidly behind its PM nominee. Meanwhile, at rally after rally in different parts of the country, the Gujarat leader has spoken about his development agenda. This has helped him connect with the masses who have been disillusioned with the UPA. His poll managers have also done a great job on the social media, boosting his popularity amongst the youth. In the last few months while the BJP has moved from strength to strength, the Congress has constantly been under fire with so many scams being unearthed in recent months. Many allies have marched out of the UPA and several more prospective partners have refused to enter into any sort of agreement with the INC, fearing the massive anti-incumbency against the regime in New Delhi. Finally, after a thumping victory in the December 2013 polls held in four states, it is evident that the BJP is in the driving seat and everyone wants to be a part of the NDA bandwagon.

Of course, one cannot overlook the role of party president Rajnath Singh in 'resurrecting' the NDA. Taking over from Nitin Gadkari after his name figured in the alleged wrong doings regarding investments in his Purti Group, he was instrumental in the elevation of Narendra Modi in spite of strong opposition from Advani and a bitter divorce with the JD(U). As the Gujarat CM toured the nation, talking about his 'vision' for the country, Singh worked behind the scenes to stitch together a mega formation to take on a weak UPA. The first part of the strategy was to bring back those leaders who had walked out of the BJP earlier. Soon, former CMs B S Yeddyurappa and Kalyan Singh were back into the party fold (Link). Keshubahi's GPP too is expected to merge into the BJP soon. Next, Singh went on allying with several smaller partners. The saffron outfit built up solid alliances in states like Maharashtra and Bihar. In Tamil Nadu, where the party has minimal presence, it brought together many Dravidian parties while the Congress seems to be fighting the polls all alone. To go beyond its traditional support base, it has also joined hands with Dalit parties including Paswan's LJP.

Though there is no doubt that the NDA is emerging as the foremost coalition ahead of the 2014 General Elections, it is clear that it will still need many more partners if it has to form the next government at the Centre. In fact, many parties have started sending feelers to the BJP. Raj Thackeray of the MNS has made it clear that he will support Modi for the PM's post. AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha is believed to be close to the Gujarat CM whereas Karunanidhi has also referred to him as a 'good friend'. A lot can be read into NCP chief Sharad Pawar's clean chit to BJP PM candidate. Even Jagan Reddy of the YSR Congress has called him a 'good administrator'. Naidu's TDP is an old ally and is speculated to join back the NDA anywhere soon. The AGP too is a prospective partner; its absence from the meeting of the Third Front leaders does say a lot. And finally, the big catch - the BJD and the BJP too may kiss and make-up.

February 08, 2014

WHY THE THIRD FRONT IS A FAILURE?

FIVE REASONS WHY THE FEDERAL FRONT WILL NOT BE A SUCCESS

With seven regional parties joining hands with the Left Front earlier this week, it seems like the much hyped 'Third Front', a term which gains momentum months prior to General Elections and then fizzles out, is on the cards. The eleven constituents who have around 90 MPs in the Lok Sabha have formed a united block and have planned to oppose any bill brought in by the government since it could electorally benefit the Congress. In the coming days, it is expected that the leaders of the Front which at present includes the Janata Dal (United), the Samajawadi Party, the Biju Janata Dal, the Janata Dal (Secular), the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), the All India Anna Daravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Asom Gana Parishad, apart from the four parties of the Left Block will hold talks to finalize the seat sharing arrangements. A non-BJP, non-Congress government at the Centre has been the ultimate dream of the federalists. However, the big question is whether it is a viable option. The increase in the vote share of the regional outfits and the emergence of strong state satraps has made them extremely important in national politics. Meanwhile, the anti-incumbency is hurting the Congress whereas the polarization of votes could affect the BJP's prospects after it named Narendra Modi as its PM nominee. As such, some believe that 2014 could see witness a Federal Front heading the regime in New Delhi. In fact, in a bid to prevent the NDA from coming to power, the UPA may offer such an alliance consisting of regional players outside support. However, I believe that the Third Front is bound to fail. Firstly, it will need at least 120 plus seats to be a force to reckon with and considering the present situation of its constituents, it seems to be an uphill task. In fact even if it gets 120 seats and forms a minority government with the outside support of the Congress, it is unlikely to last over two years. And here are the five reasons why I think so...

(1) Present Situation: As I have mentioned earlier, the Third Front has to get over 120 seats to even dream of forming the next government. However, in the present situation, it is expected that most of the regional parties who met this week are going to drop seats. Nitish Kumar, the most vocal leader of the new formation has to battle anti-incumbency, a resurgent BJP and the Congress-RJD-LJP alliance this time around. Having walked out of the NDA over the leadership issue, the JD(U) is likely to end with a tally of 10-15 seats only. In neighboring Uttar Pradesh, the Muslims who have been a prominent vote bank of the Samajwadi Party may desert it following the inability of the Akhilesh government to prevent the Muzaffarnagar riots. Meanwhile, the BJP and the BSP are likely to spoil the prospects of Mulayum Singh Yadav in the upcoming polls. The Left Front could be heading towards its worst showing in many years. Having stormed the Left bastion of Bengal in 2011, Mamata Bannerjee is all set to take the lion's share of seats in the eastern state. In Kerala too, the LDF is said to be extremely weak. Down south, the Gowdas have never been able to increase their clout outside the Mandya region of Karnataka. Besides the father son duo of Deve Gowda and Kumarswamy, they do not have any strong leaders who can win them seats. The AGP and the JVM (P) can at max, win 10 and 3 seats in Assam and Jharkhand respectively. On the contrary, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK and Naven Patnaik's BJD are expected to put on a good show. Considering the above arguments, I think the Third Front will finish with a combined tally of 80 - 110 seats, falling short of the 120 mark. On the other hand, if the NDA or the UPA manage to cross the 200 mark on their own, some parties in the confederation may not be averse to joining either of them. Amma is known to be close to Modi whereas Patnaik and AGP were a part of the BJP led alliance earlier. Similarly, the SP and the JD(S) have bailed out the INC many times in the past in the Parliament.

(2) The ideology: To get votes, the Third Front will have to project an ideology to the people. This is exactly what the coalition lacks as of now. The only reason for these parties who come from diverse backgrounds, who cater to different vote banks and who have varied 'founding principles' to come together has been to the aim of forming a non-BJP, non-Congress regime in New Delhi. In fact, this has been the stand of many regional players since decades. Earlier, with many of these fighting the INC in their back ground, anti-Congressism was the glue that kept them together. Over the years, with the 'Secularism' debate dominating the political scene, there has been a slight change here with anti-BJP sentiments taking over, especially after the nomination of Modi as NDA's Prime Ministerial candidate. However, the point to note here is whether the masses will vote for the regional players only to keep the mainstream national parties at bay? Also, the Federal alliance has never spoken about its 'united' vision for the country, the economic policies that it plans to implement once in power and its views on the nation's foreign affairs, social issue and key reforms are unclear. Besides, another challenge for them is whether the individual parties will ever rise above regional lines. One important thing is that each of the member of this alliance has a vote bank to protect. With every outfit trying to safeguard its own political interests will the Front be ever able to deliver on vital issues. My answer to this question is a No. Probably, the biggest problem will come while presenting the annual budget as every leader will want to get the maximum funds for his or her state.

(3) An incomplete front: Another head ache for the federal alliance is that in several key states, it has virtually no presence. Of course, in the coming days I expect several smaller parties like the People's Party of Punjab, either the National Conference or People's Democratic Party in Jammu & Kashmir and some other outfits in the North-East to join this confederation. Still, this does not solve the issue. In Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Himachal and Uttarkhand, the coalition has no leader who can win them seats. In Andhra, where there are as many as three regional parties, namely the YSR Congress, the Telugu Desum Party and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, none of these have indicated their willingness to join hands with federal front. Same is the situation in Maharashtra. Though the ties between the NCP and the Congress have been strained, they continue to share power. On the other hand, the BJP has already brought together several parties in its Mahayuti. Another issue facing the new front is that most of these regional players, except for Naveen Patnaik has a strong traditional regional rival and getting them on board is an impossible task. With Mulayum in the group, there is no way that Mayawati is going to give her support to the coalition; DMK and the AIADMK do not see eye to eye; Nitish will never allow bete noire Lalu Yadav to be a member of the alliance where Mamata's TMC can never work with the Left parties. With Didi and Behenji out of the equation, there is no way that the Third Front will get the numbers to form the next government.

(4) Leadership: Lets suppose that the Third Front is all set to form the government, either on its own or with outside support of the Congress. The question staring at the alliance will be who will head the government? All this while, the Third Front members have tried to evade this issue by claiming that the decision on who will be their PM choice will be taken after the polls. However, with nearly half a dozen leaders harboring ambitions for the top job, selecting one person will be extremely difficult. In a party meeting, the AIADMK cadre have proposed Jayalalithaa's name for the post. Knowing how things function in the Dravidian parties, it is for sure that this announcement too has the matriarch's blessings. It is a well known fact that Mulayum Singh Yadav too wants to become the Prime Minister. In fact, when he asked his son Akhilesh to become the CM of Uttar Pradesh after the SP dislodged the BSP from power, it was being speculated that he was planning to move to the national scene. Bihar CM Nitish Kumar too is seen as a probable PM candidate. While he had denied any such ambitions in the past, his repeated calls for the formation of the Third Front and his excessive campaigning in the last few months tell a different story. Nitish's party colleague Sharad Yadav is the dark horse. His experience as the convener of the NDA may come in handy while keeping the different allies happy. And how can one forget the humble farmer H D Deve Gowda. A former PM, he like Sharad Yadav too can be a please-all candidate. However, what goes against him is that the JD(S) may fail to win over 5 seats. Probably, the best amongst the pack, at least in my opinion is Orissa CM Naveen Patnaik. Having governed his state fairly well for three consecutive terms, he has the experience to handle the PM's post.

(5) Bitter experiences of the past: They say 'History repeats itself'. The four federal governments that were formed in the 1990s are testimony to the fact that such an experiment can never be sustainable and will only result in political instability. In 1989, Vishwananth Pratap Singh led the first such government at the Centre which barely lasted for an year. The reason for the fall of this regime was that Chandra Shekar led faction broke away, a clear indication that such formations never work. Chandra Shekar who succeeded Singh fared even badly, staying in power only for 223 days after the Congress withdrew its support, accusing him of spying on their leader Rajiv Gandhi. The third experiment of a regional alliance was in 1996 when Deve Gowda headed the United Front government. Prior to the government formation, there were several uneasy meetings to decide the new PM. It is widely believed that Lalu Yadav prevented Mulayum from being the PM to make sure that he does not emerge as the biggest Yadav leader in the country. Less than an year later, his regime fell and I K Gujral occupied the highest executive post in the country. There is one important event that took place while Gujral was at the helm of affairs which is worth reading. It is relevant because such situations may arise in case of a Third Front government comes to power in 2014. As PM, Gujral tried his best to shield Lalu Yadav as the CBI was investigating the multi-crore Fodder scam. You see the regional parties have a narrow minded approach. They fail to see what is good for the country as a whole, rather focusing on their states. Such an approach is not ideal for leading a nation as diverse as ours. Though I firmly believe that smaller outfits are one of the greatest features of our democracy, I think that giving the reins of the Central government to them is like allowing a 15 year old drive a car. While the teenager may do a decent job, there are high chances that he may crash his vehicle. At the same time I do not say that the two national parties or rather the coalitions that they are heading - the UPA and the NDA are the best choice. However if I have to choose amongst the three 'Devils', I will definitely chose them any day over the Third Front.

January 22, 2013

AN ALLY IN NEED IS AN ALLY INDEED

THE RACE FOR 2014 IS ON

Courtesy: Top News

As the Indian National Congress (INC) think tank went into a hurdle for its two day Chintan Shivir in Jaipur, several of its top leaders have come out in the open about the need for new allies if the 'Grand Old Party of India' wants to come back to power for a third straight term. While the wily Finance Minister Chidambaram has said that it is very difficult for any party to gain an absolute majority on its own, the outspoken Rural Development Minister Jairam Ramesh hit the nail on its head when he told media persons that the INC may need the help of newer partners to form the next government. With many more leaders including Vayalar Ravi and P C Chako echoing Ramesh's line, one should not be surprised if the Congress sends out overtures to other 'like-minded' parties in the near future like the Janata Dal-United (JD-U), presently a constituent of the Opposition NDA or the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), its main adversary in the state of Odisha. As the Congress brain stormed the pros and cons of fighting polls in coalition with other regional outfits, Lalu Prasad Yadav, the original 'joker' of Indian politics, the tag which I believe, he has lost to Congress General Secretary Digvijaya Singh in the last few years, has sounded the electoral bugle and declared the next Lok Sabha polls to be a straight contest between the 'Secular' Congress-led UPA and the 'Communal' BJP-led NDA.

Remember Shri Lalu Prasad Yadav - the former CM of Bihar and the chief of the RJD who had famously declared that one day he would rule the nasion (nation) and serve the pipool (people) on NDTV's Follow the Leader show way back in 2004 when he was a force to reckon with. Speaking to the press in Patna, the former Railway Minister has ruled out the Third Front of being a serious contender for the 2014 General Elections by saying that it will be a two-way contest between the 'Secular' compartment and the 'Communal' compartment. After his party's shameful performance in the 2009, during which he formed the Fourth Front after seat sharing talks with the Congress failed and the near complete rout in the last Bihar assembly polls, the cunning Lalu has voluntarily decided to be a part of the UPA's campaign in its quest for a hat trick of wins and in the process, revive his own political career, which has taken a downward plunge in the last decade. The OBC leader's words reminds me of former US President George Bush's 'You are either with us, or against us' speech after the horrific 9/11 attacks where he gave a clarion call to the leaders around the world to unite, behind America of course, to weed out terror from the face of the Earth. By trying to rake up the 'pseudo secular versus pro-Hindutva' debate, Yadav is acting as a dalal for the ruling party, hopeful that the work done now will reap in benefits in the form of plum ministerial posts in the third installation of UPA.

The precarious situation that the Congress finds itself in, may explain the sudden spurge in the scouting for newer friends. Anti-incumbency apart, the unending lists of scams, high inflation, policy paralysis and more importantly, the lack of a proper vision to take the country forward will make it extremely difficult for the party to even come close to the 200 mark. In fact, after Mamata, who was having an on-off relationship with the government dumped it some time ago, the Manmohan regime is surviving on the outside support of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP). While the government is struggling, its allies in the UPA are doing even worse. The infamous 2G scam and war of succession in the DMK will negatively impact its tally; there is nothing to indicate that NCP may do outstandingly well; other outfits like the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) or the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (NC) will not cross the two digit mark. Besides, Jaganmohan Reddy's revolt and the indecisiveness over the Telangana issue will trim its prospects in a state that has sent the maximum number of MPs in both versions of the UPA. Aware of the multiple problems that plague it today, Congressmen are trying hard to woo other regional parties into its fold. The Janata Dal-United (JD-U) and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) whom political pundits predict to sweep Parliamentary seats on their home turf are high on its list of prospective pals with which it can enter into electoral agreements. Special economic soaps for Bihar and Odisha in the 2013 Union budgets may be one of the many concessions that Congress may offer in return of support.

Sadly for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), it is still to put its house in order to pose any threat to the ruling combine. The battle for succession amongst the various so called 'eligible' candidates that began with the shock defeat of the Vajpayee government in 2004 has only compounded and may even end up imploding the party, like its predecessor the Jan Sangh. During much of 2011 and 2012, when it was engulfed in internal chaos, the civil society led by Anna Hazare and later the Aam Admi Party of Arvind Kejriwal ended up acting as a responsible Opposition, criticizing the government on its failures. As the party was gaining some sort of momentum by cornering the UPA on the various corruption scams that have been unearthed in the past two years, the allegations of diverting illegal wealth into the shell companies of the Purti group against its president Nitin Gadkari have proved to be a major embarrassment, putting it on the back foot. The spectacular victory of Narendra Modi has landed the saffron outfit in a dilemma. After silencing his detractors, both inside the Sangh Parivar and outside, with a huge win, he is today, perhaps the strongest contender to lead the party in 2014. However, projecting Modi as the PM candidate may not go well with the allies in the NDA, especially the JD-U, which on multiple occasions has snubbed the CM of Gujarat. If the BJP plans to enter the fray under his leadership, it will, for sure have to give up even the wildest dreams of getting any support from parties like JD-U, BJD, TMC, SP, BSP and so on, which have a substantial Muslim vote base. Moreover, neither does it have any organizational presence nor does it have any bankable partners in the crucial states of Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu which send 140 odd members to the Lower House.

With the BJP in complete disarray, regional satraps are keen to grab the the anti-INC votes into their kitty. Realizing that every seat will increase their importance on the political stage during the great tamasha that we call government formation, they are going all out to impress the electorate. The Samajwadi Party (SP) is on a roll after its thumping victory in the last Vidhan Sabha polls and is expected to do well in 2014, in spite of young Akhilesh Yadav's 'mis-governance'. Though the Bhaujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) is down after the 2012 debacle, it is certainly not out and still has the potential to fight the SP tooth and nail. With the national parties lacking any sort of organization in Uttar Pradesh, M&M - Mulayam and Mayawati are almost certain to get anywhere between 45 to 60 seats, making them crucial for the formation of a stable government. In neighbouring Bihar, Nitesh Kumar's performance and mass appeal and a non-existing opposition is certain to help his party retain its tally. Also, the war of words between the leaders of the BJP and the JD-U, firstly over the support for Pranab in the Presidential polls and then regarding the candidature of Narendra Modi as the next PM means that all is not well in the NDA and Nitesh may be open to the idea of switching sides in case a special package is allocated to his state in the Union budget. Like in Bihar, Patnaik's excellent performance in Odisha is most likely to convert into votes for the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), a party which one can bet to bag around 15 seats, making it a prized possession for both fronts. Jayalalitha's AIADMK is on a upsurge and the differences between Alagiri and Stalin will go in its favour. Naidu's Telugu Desam, K Chandrashekar Rao's TRS and the newly launched YSR Congress may do well in Andhra whereas Mamata is expected to storm Bengal.

Thus, the stage is set and the race to run the 2014 Lok Sabha has begun. While it is true that the two major national parties might not be in the best of positions, the utopian idea of a non-Congress, non-BJP government - the Third front, the pinnacle of our multi-party democracy, may not become a reality any where in the near future. And to be frank, I believe it is good for the nation, as such a loose coalition of parties headed by selfish leaders, each trying to work only for his region, will ultimately be detrimental to national interests. Thus, in the coming months, both the major alliances will go the extra mile in wooing new partners, offering huge concessions in the process. On the other hand, the smaller parties who find themselves in a win-win situation would like to make the most of it, bargaining hard for a better deal. The coming year is a crucial one with as many as 10 states, mainly in the Hindi heartland and the North-east going to the polls. Major tectonic shifts are expected on the political stage which are definitely expected to have an impact on 2014. As the big elections come closer, expect unholy partnerships to be forged just for political benefit or existing ones broken for greener grass on the other side. No party is an untouchable anymore, irrespective of its ideology, especially if it can get the numbers. After all, as our netas say, there are no permanent friends or foes in politics.

For more on the 2014 General Elections

(1) The Fall of the Triumvirate (Link)

(2) The Double Edged Sword (Link)

(3) Reading Between the Lines (Link)

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(1) Courtesy: Top News
Source: TopNews - Congress and BJP vying for JMM's support (Link)

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