Third Place and Fractured Faith

What Lies Ahead for the AIADMK?

The political landscape of Tamil Nadu has been fundamentally rewritten. For nearly six decades, power in Fort St. George was a rhythmic pendulum swinging predictably between the DMK and the AIADMK. However, the dust has settled on the highly anticipated 2026 Tamil Nadu State Assembly elections, and the reality facing the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) is stark, bruising, and deeply humbling.

The party that once commanded absolute majorities under towering leaders has been relegated to a distant third place. Despite widespread anti-incumbency, AIADMK completely failed to dislodge the ruling DMK. Instead, the crucial anti-government vote bank bypassed the traditional opposition entirely, shifting heavily toward the charismatic newcomer — C. Joseph Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which stormed the political arena to become the single largest entity.

This isn't a sudden stroke of bad luck; the warning signs have been flashing for a while. The debacle follows a dismal performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where the AIADMK drew a complete blank in Tamil Nadu, failing to win even a single parliamentary seat and even losing its deposit in several constituencies.

A House Divided: The Current Crisis Within the Party

Today, the AIADMK resembles a fortress with crumbling walls. The leadership of Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) has come under intense scrutiny. Despite cementing his position as the singular face of the party, Palaniswami has been entirely unable to unite the various splintered factions. The bitter ousting of O. Panneerselvam (OPS) and Sasikala’s camp continues to leave a gaping wound in the party's traditional southern vote base. Worse still is the ongoing exodus of talent. Sensing stagnant water, a string of prominent, influential district-level leaders and former ministers have jumped ship, switching allegiances over to the DMK or the ruling TVK.

Compounding this internal bleeding is the party’s erratic relationship with national politics. The alliance with the BJP has turned into a chronic guessing game. The "will-they-won't-they" routine—getting together for an election, breaking apart in acrimony, and flirting again behind closed doors—has left voters confused and the core party cadres thoroughly disillusioned. With no clear ideological anchor or a unifying goal, the grassroots workers, who are the lifeblood of the AIADMK, are visibly losing faith.

Echoes of History: When Amma Rescued the Two Leaves

It is in times of such existential dread that the party must look back at its own history. This is not the first time the AIADMK has faced what looked like certain death.

When the party's legendary founder M.G. Ramachandran (MGR) passed away in 1987, the AIADMK fractured violently. It split into two camps: one led by MGR’s widow, Janaki Ramachandran, and the other by a young, fierce J. Jayalalithaa. The split allowed the DMK to comfortably cruise back into power in 1989. The AIADMK looked finished.

But history is shaped by individuals who refuse to yield. The turning point came during the infamous March 25, 1989 saree-pulling episode inside the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly. Assaulted, humiliated, and her modesty outraged on the floor of the house by DMK MLAs, a battered Jayalalithaa left the assembly hall. Before stepping out, she swore a legendary, cinematic vow: She would never step foot inside that chamber again until she returned as the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu.

What followed was a masterclass in political resilience. "Amma" realized that a divided house would only benefit their arch-rivals. Displaying immense political acumen, she successfully brought the Janaki faction back into the fold, unified the "Two Leaves" symbol, and galvanized the demoralized cadres. Just two years later, in 1991, she fulfilled her vow—sweeping the DMK away in a historic landslide victory to take oath as Chief Minister.

Can History Repeat Itself?

The AIADMK of 2026 desperately lacks that fire. The party is suffering from an absence of emotional connect, strategic clarity, and a leader who can command the unquestioned loyalty of the masses the way Jayalalithaa or MGR did.

Coming third in a state you once ruled with an iron fist is an existential wake-up call. If the AIADMK is to survive this new three-way political paradigm in Tamil Nadu, it cannot rely merely on past laurels or anti-DMK rhetoric. It needs an immediate internal overhaul, a genuine effort to bring alienated factions back together, and a clear, independent vision that re-ignites faith in its grassroots cadre.

Jayalalithaa showed that the phoenix can always rise from the ashes. The question is: does the current leadership have the grit to light the spark?

Where the Lord Descends: Nadaivavi Kinaru

Our exploration of the hidden gems around Kanchipuram didn’t stop at the monolithic Hanuman. Leaving behind the serene, historic vibes of the Sanjeevar Rayar Temple (which I detailed in my previous post, here), we set out toward our next destination: the exquisite Nadaivavi Kinaru.

The journey between these two sites turned out to be just as delightful as the destinations themselves. We found ourselves driving along a rustic road beautifully lined with lush Jamun (black plum) trees. The branches were heavy with ripe fruit, and we couldn’t resist stopping. Shaking the branches and picking up the ripe, deep-purple berries, we stained our tongues purple and enjoyed the sweet-tart burst of summer — a nostalgic, simple pleasure that set a wonderful tone for the rest of our day.

Discovering the Subterranean Marvel: As we approached the site, the landscape opened up, and there it was - the Nadaivavi Kinaru (also known as the Nadaivavi Stepwell). Tucked away in the quiet village of Ayyengarakulam, this isn't your ordinary village well. It is a spectacular, large, subterranean stepwell built entirely of granite, showcasing the brilliant engineering and artistic finesse of the Vijayanagara era.

The entrance to the stepwell is marked by a grand, beautifully carved gateway. As you look up, you are greeted by an exquisite image of Gajalakshmi (Goddess Lakshmi flanked by two elephants) carved atop the lintel, symbolising prosperity and auspiciousness. Flanking the gateway on either side are striking, life-sized pillars featuring fierce, mythical Yalis ridden by warriors. The detailing on these pillars is incredibly sharp, immediately conveying the royal patronage behind this structure.

Beyond the entrance lies a series of stone steps leading down into the well. The architecture is precise and symmetrical, reflecting both engineering intelligence and aesthetic sensibility. Each level draws you deeper, not just physically but also psychologically — into a cooler, quieter and a more spiritual world. Here, the design balances function, symmetry, and sacred symbolism. Even though we could not access the entire depth, standing midway and observing the angular descent, the textures of the stone, and the play of light and shadow was enough to appreciate its brilliance.

The Sacred Tradition of Varadaraja Perumal: Nadaivavi is not just an architectural wonder; it holds a profound religious and cultural significance. The well was deliberately designed to facilitate a unique annual ritual associated with the famous Sri Kanchi Varadaraja Perumal Temple. Every year, during the Chitra Pournami (full moon day in the Tamil month of Chithirai) festival, the processional deity, Lord Varadaraja Perumal, makes a grand journey from Kanchipuram to this very stepwell in Ayyengarakulam. This event is known as the Nadaivavi Utsavam.

For this specific festival, the water from the stepwell is completely pumped out. Lord Varadaraja Perumal descends the stone steps deep into the heart of the well, where a special Thirumanjanam (holy bath) and grand abhishekam are performed inside the subterranean chambers. Thousands of devotees gather around the rim and on the steps of the well to witness this breathtaking sight.

Water bodies have always held deep meaning in Indian temple culture — symbolising purification, life, and divine presence. Nadaivavi is one such place where faith meets function, where even a well becomes part of divine movement.

Ayyengarakulam and the Legacy of Tatacharya: Visiting Ayyengarakulam makes you realise how much history is waiting to be discovered just a few kilometers outside the main temple town of Kanchipuram. The village itself, along with the massive Ayyengarakulam tank, the Sanjeevar Rayar temple, and this stepwell, owes its existence to Kotikanyadanam Tatacharya, the revered royal preceptor (Rajaguru) of the Vijayanagara Empire during the late 16th and early 17th centuries.

Tatacharya was a visionary administrator and a devout soul who transformed this region by building vast water bodies for irrigation and constructing these architectural marvels to foster community and devotion. Today, as you stand between the whispering Palmyra trees, looking down into the cool depths of Nadaivavi, you can't help but feel a deep sense of gratitude for Tatacharya’s enduring legacy.

If you are planning a trip to Kanchipuram, do skip the crowded highways for a few hours and take the detour to Ayyengarakulam. It’s a journey through Jamun-lined pathways into the very heart of Tamil Nadu's forgotten history.

Beyond Kanchi: Tatacharya’s Monolith Hanuman

Sanjeevar Rayar Hanuman Temple on the banks of Tata Samudram

The historic landscapes surrounding Kanchipuram are littered with structural marvels that often escape the frantic gaze of the casual weekend traveler. While the core of the ancient Pallava capital draws crowds to its soaring gopurams, a short detour across the Palar River uncovers an entirely different layer of heritage— one deeply intertwined with the late Vijayanagara empire and one of its most influentials figures. On a crisp Saturday morning, the 30th of August, we set out from Bengaluru to explore one such hidden architectural gem: the Sanjeevar Rayar Hanuman Temple in Ayyengarakulam, Kanchi District. This ancient shrine marked the very first stop of our journey into the historic Kanchi region, setting a magnificent, deeply evocative tone for the rest of our trip.

The Journey: From Ghats to Historic Towns: Leaving the chaotic tech hubs of Bengaluru early on a Saturday permitted us a smooth escape from the city's bottlenecks as we steered towards Venkatagiri Kota, a town located at the borderlands where Karnataka, Andhra and Tamil Nadu converge. The real highlight of the drive followed immediately after, as we navigated the beautiful, winding roads of the Koundinya Wildlife Sanctuary. This stretch offered an evocative transition from the rugged edges of the Deccan plateau to the plains below, with the dense forest providing a cool, misty cover and sharp hairpin bends keeping the drive exhilarating. Emerging from the sanctuary ghats, our route cut directly through Vellore before tracking the course of the Palar River eastward into Arcot - the historic town, famously serving as a major theatre of the 18th-century Carnatic Wars. From this storied landscape, we veered into the quiet, temple-dense periphery of Kanchipuram to reach our first destination at Ayyengarakulam.

The main shrine with beautiful Kolams

The Rajaguru’s Realm: Spiritual Pedigree and Imperial Power: To look at Ayyengarakulam today is to see a peaceful agrarian hamlet, yet its very name—meaning "the tank or pond of the Iyengar" — whispers of its profound historical origins. The village and its massive water body owe their existence to Sri Lakshmi Kumar Thathacharya (1571–1643 CE), a towering ecclesiastical, literary, and administrative figure who served as the Rajaguru (Royal Preceptor) to Emperor Venkatapatadeva Raya during a time when the imperial capital had shifted south, first to Chandragiri and later to Vellore as the Deccan Sultans kept chipping away at what was left of once mighty Vijayanagar Empire.

Tracing his lineage directly back to the foundational pillars of Vishishtadvaita philosophy — including Acharya Nathamuni, Tirumala Nambi and the great Ramanujacharya, Tatacharya held the hereditary right to manage crucial rituals at Tirumala and Kanchi, a spiritual pedigree he matched with intellectual brilliance as the author of several religious works. He utilised his immense imperial leverage and personal fortune to orchestrate a massive cultural renaissance, famously gold-plating the Ananda Vimanam of Tirumala and the Punya Koti Vimanam in Kanchipuram to restore pride to an empire that was losing to quickly losing its relevance in the muddy politics of contemporary South India. It was this vast wealth and influence that birthed his legendary moniker, "Kotikanyadanam" (literally, "the donor of a crore of brides"). Historically, this title celebrates his unmatched philanthropy in personally sponsoring and providing dowries for thousands of mass marriages for impoverished families across the war ravaged kingdom.

His devotion eventually anchored itself in Ayyengarakulam following a narrow escape on a jungle path. While transporting royal treasury funds destined for Kanchi, Tatacharya’s caravan was ambushed by highwaymen. Praying fervently in the wilderness, he witnessed a miracle when a massive troop of wild monkeys descended from the canopy to scatter the bandits. In profound gratitude, the Rajaguru cleared the jungle, established a settlement, engineered a massive reservoir, and consecrated the ground to the most celebrated monkey in Indian traditions - Lord Hanuman.

Garuda

Temple Architecture and Sacred Layout: The Sanjeevar Rayar Temple stands as a classical specimen of late Vijayanagara style engineering, showcasing a robust structural layout designed to withstand both the elements and historical turbulence. The entire complex is enveloped by a thick, fort-like granite Prakaram (perimeter wall), lending it an air of defensive strength. Upon passing through the unassuming entrance, one enters a vast open-air courtyard where the main shrine sits elevated on a molded stone plinth. The central deity, Lord Sanjeevar Rayar, is a magnificent bas-relief carved onto a massive monolithic granite boulder. Standing several feet tall, the figure of Hanuman faces north towards Ayodhya, as if paying obeisance to his Lord - Sri Raam. His right hand is raised in the Abhaya Mudra (the gesture of reassurance and protection), while his left hand rests firmly on his hip, holding the stalk of the celestial Sanjeevini herb. His tail loops elegantly behind his head, tipped with a small, symbolic bell — a definitive hallmark of Vijayanagara-era iconography. The stone carving retains extraordinarily sharp, crisp details despite centuries of exposure to continuous ritual anointment.

One of the most unique and iconographically distinct elements of this temple is the presence of a life-sized, standing statue of Garuda, the celestial eagle mount of Lord Vishnu. Typically, in standalone Hanuman temples, Garuda is either completely absent or relegated to minor carvings on pillars, as Hanuman himself is the supreme devotee. Here, however, Garuda stands prominently in an attitude of eternal reverence, facing the lake with his hands folded in Anjali Mudra. The detailing of his wings, the ornaments across his chest, and his sharp, vigilant features reflect the exquisite craftsmanship of the post-Vijayanagara school of artisans who worked under Tatacharya's patronage.

A more recent addition, were the massive the floor art, mapping the stone walkways. Unlike the standard daily flour markings that quickly fade, the Kolam drawings winding around the heavy pillars are captured in permanent paints, with distinct white borders that offer stark, beautiful contrast to the dark, austere weathered granite blocks, ensuring that the sacred geometric patterns and symmetric lotus motifs eternally guide the steps of pilgrims walking toward the inner sanctum.

Tata Samudram as seen from the temple

The Historic Ayyengarakulam Lake: No visit to this sacred complex can be complete without walking across to the massive Ayyengarakulam Lake, located immediately adjacent to the temple precincts. Engineered by Tatacharya to counter the erratic monsoons of the Palar river basin, this colossal step-tank and reservoir system serves as a monumental example of medieval water management.

Locally known as Tata Samudram (the Sea of Tatacharya) because of its sheer vastness, it spreads over an incredible 150 acres. Walking along the massive earth bund, you are greeted by a series of wide, perfectly dressed granite steps leading down to the water’s edge from all sides. Historically, this lake played a vital role in the region's agricultural survival, acting as a lifeline for the surrounding villages. Standing by the stone steps as the afternoon breeze rippled across the water, it was easy to appreciate the immense scale of engineering required to sustain an entire kingdom centuries ago.

Beginning our regional exploration at Ayyengarakulam was a vivid reminder that history's most profound chapters aren’t always found in the grand, crowded centers of Kanchipuram; they thrive in the quiet detours we so often bypass. Standing at the intersection of Tatacharya's grand architectural ambition and the stark, elegance of the painted Kolams, the transition of centuries felt completely seamless. The Sanjeevar Rayar Temple remains a remarkable testament to an era when statesmanship, spiritual devotion, and monumental water engineering were driven by a single, focused vision. Leaving the quiet banks of the Tata Samudram behind to continue our road trip deeper into Kanchi, we took with us the unforgettable image of a monolithic guardian still holding watch over the legacy of his architect.

AMMA RETURNS

AIADMK SUPREMO IS BACK WITH A BANG

Much to the chagrin of her enemies, AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa who was given a clean chit by the Karnataka High Court in the disproportionate asset case couple of weeks ago is back, 'officially' the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu for the fifth time. After being convicted in the case and given a jail sentence for four years in September 2014, the regional satrap who swept to power in the last state polls had stepped down and entrusted the responsibility of the state to here confidante O Paneerselvam. Since then, she had maintained a rather low profile, refusing to make public appearances and this meant that most public projects were struck up since the 'Iron Lady' was not there to inaugurate them. Although this may sound hilarious for most of us, people following Dravidian politics will certainly not be surprised. After all, politics down south is as dramatic as the local cinema and most of the successful Tamil politicians including Jaya have their roots in the film industry.

With the AIADMK chief back at the helm of affairs, the prospects of her party in the state elections scheduled for the next year have blossomed overnight. After successive victories, first in the 2011 polls and then in the 2014 General Elections, the Amma Express was on a roll. The many freebies and welfare schemes launched during her tenure were paying off. Its primary opposition in the state - the DMK was battling allegations of corruption and the fight within its first family was only intensifying with each passing day. Just when everything seemed to be going right for Jaya and her followers, the ruling of the Karnataka HC came as a massive jolt, threatening to cut short her political ambitions for the time being. However, much to her relief, the recent ruling, acquitting her and three others of all allegations of wrong-doing during her previous tenure have only enhanced the 'aura' of invincibility surrounding her. Speaking after the verdict she said that she has come out of the 'ordeal' like pure gold; in fact, many believed that Jaya could even consider snap polls, trying to en-cash on the sympathy wave following her acquittal.

From the perspective of the AIADMK, the decision is a big fillip before it kick starts its campaign for the 2016 polls. The return of Amma as the CM of Tamil Nadu is set to herald in a new set of reforms as well as public welfare scheme - read 'freebies', aimed at consolidating her voter base that has stood firmly with her for some time now. Many schemes like the Chennai Metro which has been completed but not yet made operational, apparently since Jaya was not there to inaugurate it are likely to be opened for the public. Though state politics may be her primary concern as of now, the AIADMK is expected to now play a more proactive role in the Lok Sabha too where it is the third largest party with 37 members. Besides, its 11 members in the Rajya Sabha too could be actively wooed, both by the government and the various opposing blocks considering that many of the Bills could be stuck up in this house.

While one witnessed scenes of ecstatic celebrations in the AIADMK camp, a wave of gloom has set upon the DMK. Though Karuna tried to take a 'principled' stand saying that the 'court of conscience' was above all other courts, it is clear that his party's attempt to use this issue to script a revival has gone down the drain. The numerous problems plaguing the DMK just seem to be piling one after another. As if successive defeats were not enough, the fight between Stalin and Azaghiri that led to the ouster of the latter from the party has severely weakened its ranks. The allegations of graft against some of its prominent leaders including Karuna's daughter Kanimozhi, his nephew Dayanidhi Maran and former Telecom Minister A Raja has tarnished the party's image to a large extent. In the present context, it will take more than a miracle for Karuna and the DMK to prevent Jaya from winning a straight second term.

Although it was BJP leader Subramanian Swamy who had filed the case against the Tamil Nadu CM nearly two decades ago, Jaya's acquittal is likely to bring cheers to the saffron outfit. It is a well known fact that the PM and Jaya share a good personal rapport. After the verdict, Modi is believed to have called up Amma and congratulated her. With the AIADMK chief coming out clean from all the allegations levied against her, it makes it much easier for the BJP to work with her party. Since the NDA lacks the numbers in the Upper House, the saffronists would now try to strike some sort of a working deal, if not a partnership between the two political parties to check mate their enemies.

For the Congress though, the case could give it the leverage it needs to stage a comeback down south or at least try to get back some of the space that it has conceded to others. The local party unit is in tatters and unless it manages to make up with its former ally - the DMK which is unlikely, it will find it extremely difficult to even cross the two digit mark in the next state polls. But then, as fate would have it, the Congress is all set to play a key role in the Jaya saga which is far from over. After all, it is in power in Karnataka and it is up to the Siddaramaiah government to file a review petition in the Supreme Court against the HC verdict. In that scenario, the Tamil Nadu CM could be in for some problems in the near future. More importantly, the move will perhaps be the first step in the renewal of ties between the INC and the DMK which has been left red-faced after dropping of the charges against Jayalalithaa. However, the move could boomerang too since this may translate into more closer ties between the BJP and the AIADMK which will be a win-win situation for both.

With the party being relegated to a 'pariah' and regional satraps largely ostracizing it, the Congress rarely gets a chance to play a decisive role in politics nowadays. However, in the Jaya disproportionate asset case, it is the INC that holds the cards. The party leaders need to evaluate all the angles and come up with an action plan that can help it turn the tide in its favor. Whatever the party's government in Karnataka does, the implications of that decision will not only impact Tamil politics but will resonate in the National Parliament.

TAMIL NADU & LOK SABHA 2014

CAN JAYA SINK THE DMK'S SUN?

From Bengal, we move to another state which is ruled by a lady politician - the southern state of Tamil Nadu. In 2011 state elections, the AIADMK led alliance swept the state, winning a staggering 201 of the 234 seats. While Amma's outfit walked away with 150 seats, her ally the DMDK (Link) finished as the second largest party as it ending with an impressive tally of 29 seats. The DMK was decimated. In fact when Vijaykanth decided against joining the Jaya government, he became the Leader of Opposition, relegating Karuna's party to the third spot. Three years down the line, things have changed to some extent. The AIADMK supremo is nurturing Prime Ministerial ambitions, hopeful that a tally of say about 30 odd seats will make the 'natural' leader of a Third Front. The DMK is no more a constituent of the UPA, having broken off from the INC led coalition following differences over the Lankan Tamil issue. The BJP on the other hand has stitched together a 'Half Rainbow' alliance in the state (Link) with several smaller Dravidian parties. The Congress though is left in the lurch; without any strong allies on its side, it seems to be headed towards a rout.

ISSUES

(1) Performance test of the Jaya government: It has been three years since the AIADMK registered a landslide victory in the state elections, relegating the DMK to the third spot. Having completed more than half of her tenure, the Tamil Nadu CM's performance will be under the scanner. The 'Amma Eateries' serving highly subsidized food has been a big hit across the state, run by women's self help groups. Other welfare measures include the 'Amma Marundagam ' (Medical Stores) and free laptops to students studying in standard XII and Polytechnic colleges. The law and order situation has improved as compared to that under the previous Karunanidhi regime. On the ground, the AIADMK is said to be the strongest political party, ahead of the others, especially with the DMK in disarray and the Congress fighting the polls alone.

(2) Anti-incumbency against the UPA: With corruption becoming a major issue across the nation, the Congress is clearly on the back foot. One of the biggest scams in the second tenure of the Congress led coalition government has been the 2G scam, perhaps running into thousands of crores. This is important because the prime accused in this fiasco has been the former Telecom Minister A Raja of the DMK. In fact, one of the beneficiary of this allegedly has been Karuna's daughter and Rajya Sabha MP Kanimozhi. Thus while the DMK did pull out of the UPA late last year, the stigma of 'corruption' has not been washed away, at least not yet. Even the performance of the last DMK regime was much below par. This is certainly going to further help the AIADMK and the NDA win votes.

(3) Lankan Tamil Issue: In the last days of the 2009 Lankan civil war as the island nation's army decimated the LTTE, it is alleged that severe atrocities were committed by men in uniform against the Tamils. Videos from various organizations around the world have given 'questionable' evidence of armymen killing the minorities in cold blood including Prabhakaran's young son and LTTE loyalist Isapriya. With the US planning to move a resolution against the Sri Lankan government in the UN, the DMK pulled out of the UPA alleging that the Congress was not ready to accept its suggestions. The whole issue has snowballed into a major poll issue in the state with both the Dravidian parties accusing the Centre of not doing anything to protect the Tamils in Jaffna. Of course, we also need to take into account that we cannot displease our southern neighbor which is also a strategic partner.

Another issue, perhaps linked to this is the drama over the release of the people convicted in the assassination of former PM Rajiv Gandhi. With the Supreme Court commuting the death sentence of three of the convicts to life, the Jaya government tried to secure brownie points by announcing that it would release all the seven people associated with the case. This was met with stiff opposition from the Congress who called this a betrayal. The SC later intervened and has stayed the move.

CONTENDERS

(1) All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK): After that spectacular victory in the last state polls, AIADMK supremo is buoyed and has started voicing her national ambitions as the calls for a Third Front are growing louder. This is reflected in the party manifesto too. However, the wily politician that she is, she 'forced' the Left in breaking ties with her outfit, aware that each seat in her kitty would make her more powerful nationally. The numerous welfare schemes that her government has launched, the anti-incumbency against the UPA and the dissidence within the DMK are working to Amma's advantage. In fact, the AIADMK may give tough competition to the likes of the TMC and the Left to emerge as the third largest player in the Parliament. The AIADMK's candidates include T G Venkatesh Babu (Chennai North), Dr J Jayavardhan (Chennai South), S R Vijayakumar (Chennai Central), P Senguttuvan (Vellore), V Panneerselvam (Salem), P Kumar (Trichy), R Gopalakrishnan (Madurai) and D John Thangam (Kannyakumari).

(2) Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA): Like so many constituents of the UPA, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) too is struggling, to say the least. Apart from the fact that it finished third in the state assembly, even behind Vijayakanth's DMDK, the power struggle within the Dravidian outfit's first family has led many to believe that the DMK would struggle to even cross the two digit mark. The stigma of the multi-crore 2G scam seem to have stuck to the party even after it left the UPA. With Karunanidhi expelling southern strong man Alagiri, the polls are a big test of the leadership for the 'crown prince' Stalin. Aware that the party's tally is set go southwards, the party has tied up with several smaller players like the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), the Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK), the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and the Puthiya Tamizhagam (PT) to consolidate anti-AIADMK votes. The regional player's candidates include Stalin loyalist R Girirajan (Chennai North), T K S Elangovan (Chennai South), A K S Vijayan (Nagapattinam), V Velusamy (Madurai) and former Union Ministers - S. Gandhi Selvan (Namakkal), T R Baalu (Thanjavur) and 2G tainted A Raja (Nilgiris).

(3) Congress: The grand old party is in a fix in the southern most state. Without any strong Dravidian ally on its side, the INC seems to be headed towards doomsday. The fact that several of its key leaders including Finance Minister P Chidambaram and Shipping Minister G K Vasan have refused to contest in 2014 is an indication of the big rout staring in the face of the party. Adding to its woes is the Union government's refusal to back a 'strong' US led resolution against Sri Lanka in the United Nations implicating it of genocide against the country's Tamil population during the last days of the Civil War in 2009. Some of the party's candidates here include Finance Minister's son Karti Chidamabaram (Sivaganga) and veteran leader Mani Shankar Aiyar (Mayiladuturai).

(4) National Democratic Alliance (NDA): Aware that the saffron outfit does not have any significance presence in Tamil country, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) cobbled together the 'Half Rainbow' alliance by bringing together several smaller Dravidian parties to give it a fighting chance, especially after the talks with Jaya failed to materialize. Leading the NDA here is film star Vijayakant of the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) which emerged as the second largest party in the assembly and polled 10 percent of the votes in the 2009 Lok Sabha. Besides, Ramadoss of the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and firebrand leader Vaiko of Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) too have pledged their support to Modi. Other smaller players in this coalition are the Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi (KMDK) which has some influence in the Kongu region and the Indiya Jananayaka Katchi (IJK). The BJP's PM nominee also met superstar Rajnikanth during his visit to Chennai.

PAST PERFORMANCE

In 1996, G K Moopanar split from the Congress over its decision to ally with the AIADMK and formed the Tamil Maanila Congres (Moopanar) - TMC(M). He joined hands with the DMK and the CPI(M) and the alliance - the United Front won all the 39 seats in the state. Two years down the line though, the results were dramatically different. The AIADMK, the PMK, the MDMK and Subramaniam Swamy's Janata Party joined the BJP-led NDA and won 30 seats. The DMK and the TMC(M) finished with a tally of 9. Elections were scheduled a year later as Jaya pulled the plug on the Vajpayee government during the crucial trust vote. The saffron camp now allied with the DMK, Ramados and Vaiko. The new look NDA finished as the largest coalition with 25 seats while Jaya and the Congress took 12 and 2 seats each. In 2004, Jaya was with the BJP whereas the DMK was now in the UPA along with the PMK and MDMK. This was one of the blunders that cost Vajpayee a second consecutive term. The results were a white wash in favor of the UPA. In the last General polls, the UPA continued to dominate with 27 seats whereas the AIADMK combine bagged 12 seats.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (AIADMK)	9	-	10	18	-
Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (DMK)	18	16	12	5	17
Congress	6	6	3	1	9
Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (MDMK)	1	4	4	3	-
Paattali Makkal Katchi (PMK)	-	5	5	4	-
Others	3	4	2	6	22

MY PREDICTIONS

The AIADMK is all set to cross the 20 seat mark and may even end up as the third largest party in the Parliament. Its rally will be dented to some extent by the DMK which is making a come back of sorts. The NDA will pick up a few seats whereas the Congress and others may, at max win up to 2 seats.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	All India Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (AIADMK)	21-25
2	Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (DMK+)	9-13
3	National Democratic Alliance (NDA)	3-6
4	Others (Congress/Left)	0-2

WATCH OUT

(1) Jaya - Potential PM candidate: Should the AIADMK win over 30 seats and there is a chance for a Federal Front to come to power, the party chief will be the strongest contender to become the PM of the nation. Even in the run up to the polls, Amma has on several occasions has given indications that she nurses national ambitions. The shrewd politician that she is, she even walked out of an alliance with the Left parties to maximize her individual tally. Even in case the Third Front may not come to power, Jaya with 30 odd MPs will be in a solid position for some hard bargaining with either the NDA or the UPA.

(2) The split in the DMK and the future of Alagiri: How much of an impact will the suspension of Alagiri have on the prospects of the DMK, especially in the southern districts where Karuna's estranged son has some kind of a clout. The war of succession that began as early as 1996 when Vaiko was shown the door seem to have been settled finally. With his last rival being shunted out and the Marans cut to size, the path is clear for the former Deputy CM Stalin to lead the party in the post Karuna era. Meanwhile, his elder sibling's next move will be very interesting. Though joining the AIADMK can be ruled out, he may join some other party like the BJP or Vaiko's MDMK or even float a new party. One more possibility is that in case the DMK is wiped out, Karuna may even mend fences with Alagiri to strengthen the party.

(3) Performances of the smaller party: In 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the DMDK polled 10 percent of the total votes though it did not pick any seats. In the next state legislative assembly elections, the party ended up as the second largest party. The point I wish to make is that we need to see how the performance of these smaller parties would be and if the coalition stitched together by the BJP would last post elections. I mean, the DMDK, the MDMK and the PMK and the BJP alliance may end up giving a tough fight to the two major Dravidian parties a tough fight. A wild idea, I know but still a possibility.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

WHAT IS IN A MANIFESTO?

VIAKO'S BIZZARE POLL PROMISES

Courtesy: India 272

Led by the firebrand Tamil leader V Gopalsamy alias Vaiko, the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) has never been able to break big in electoral politics in Tamil Nadu. Once seen by many as a potential challenger to the monopoly of the two main Dravidian parties in the state - the DMK and the AIADMK, the outfit has only tasted 'success', I mean, won a handful seats when it has allied with bigger players. Vaiko started his political journey with the DMK and was considered by many as the ideological successor to Karunanidhi. He was the undisputed No 2 in the party, boasting of a huge fan following of his own. However, after it became that Karuna had chosen his sons - M K Stalin and M K Alagiri to lead 'his' outfit, Vaiko left the DMK and floated his own party. Though a sizable number of the DMK cadre joined him, the outfit won no seats on its debut. As we can see from the below chart, Vaiko and his MDMK have been 'fringe' player in Tamil politics. Now, compare this to say, Vijaykanth's DMDK (Link) and you realize that in spite of entering politics in 2005, Captain has managed to attract the anti-DMK, anti-AIADMK votes. On the other hand, Vaiko has failed, rather failed miserably in this regards.

Its easy to see why, Vaiko has never fulfilled his 'true potential' despite being one of the most popular leader in the state. A fiery orator, he is arguably the most vociferous supporter of the banned LTTE in the country. He is said to have met chief Prabhakaran while on a visit to Jaffna and was also jailed under the stringent Prevention of Terrorism Act by Jayalalitha for this. Though I personally do not believe in the Sri Lankan Tamil 'cause' (I think that we have too many problems in our own country and we should think about them rather than interfering in the internal matters of our neighbors), one has to give credit to Vaiko for being firm on his views, especially in a state where netas can change their stance based on which way the wind is blowing. Like a crusader who keeps on fighting for what he believes in, the MDMK boss never loses any opportunity to hit out at the Lankan government. However, what he fails to realize, or perhaps he ignores is the fact that while they have solidarity for their brethren across the Palk Strait, the people of Tamil Nadu, like in all other states want their leaders to tackle their basic needs. If only, the Lankan Tamils could vote in India Vaiko would surely have occupied the top posts.

	Year	Election	Alliance	Seats Won
1	1996	State Elections	Left	0
2	1996	General Elections	-	0
3	1998	General Elections	AIADMK & BJP	3
4	1999	General Elections	DMK & BJP	4
5	2001	State Elections	-	0
6	2004	General Elections	DMK & Congress	4
7	2006	State Elections	AIADMK	6
8	2009	General Elections	Left	1
9	2011	State Elections	-	-

In the upcoming polls, Vaiko is a part of the BJP's grand alliance in Tamil Nadu (Link). Under the pre-poll agreement between the six parties that constitute this front, MDMK will contest seven seats. The coalition will be lead by Vijaykanth. Will this election see Vaiko making an impact? Actually, the MDMK has never won any seats when he has not allied either of the two big regional parties. Although, the NDA looks strong on paper, it remains to be seen if it can make an impact by winning 5 to 10 seats. At the same time you have to keep in mind that Vaiko is a strange politician. The fact that he did not contest the 2011 state elections after talks with Amma failed, proves that he is not power hungry. As such, unlike say the AGP (Link) or the INLD, it is not a do or die elections for him. Having dedicated 'his life to fight for the rights of the Lankan Tamils', electoral results won't impact him personally. However, keeping in mind, the future of his party, especially after he steps down, it needs a good tally to remain relevant.

For that to happen, Vaiko has to make the right kind of noise and strike a chord with the people. Sadly, one look at the MDMK's manifesto, you realize that he has not learnt from his past mistakes. He talks about Tamil pride, Tamils in Jaffna and in other parts of the world. However, regarding the things on the ground, the ones that matter to the electorate, he doesn't seem to have any opinion. I know many of the MDMK supporters will argue with me on this. They will say what has the BJP done on the issue of Ram Mandir which has been mentioned in its manifesto since its inception. This despite of being in power for 6 years. And the Congress has never been able to curb poverty even after ruling the nation for six decades. Moreover, unlike in the West, not many Indians read the manifesto before voting for a candidate. However, the point that I am trying to make is that after joining politics, you need to talk about the issues that concern the people whom you wish to represent. However, in the MDMK manifesto, I find rather 'trivial' subjects, some of which do not matter to anyone, except for Vaiko, I guess. I want to specifically pick up certain points mentioned in the document and show you how the MDMK seems to be losing the plot and may end up with no seats even in 2014.

There has always been a feeling amongst Southern Indians, particularly the Tamilians that politics in the country is dominated by the Hindi speaking people and to be frank, this is to some extent, is a valid argument. As such, Dravidian politicians have used the plank of 'federalism' to get even with the counterparts in the heartland. One of the key features in the manifesto of all Tamil parties has been increasing the powers of the state government and scrapping of the Concurrent List. However, Vaiko has other ideas too. To 'further strengthen the federal structure of the nation', the MDMK chief wants to rename the country as 'United States of India'. Now, can anyone please explain to me as to how adopting a new name will help make the states powerful? I agree that the USA is a model nation for any federal state; however, its success is certainly not because of its name. I hope Vaiko gets this point. Next, in a bid to strike an emotional chord with the electorate, he has asked for revoking the ban on the LTTE and pressurizing the Lankan government to hold a referendum in the Tamil dominated north. It is unfortunate that the MDMK supremo has not yet accepted the stark reality - the LTTE, a terrorist organization was responsible for the death of one of our Prime Ministers. Besides, it was responsible for the death of hundreds of Indian soldiers who were stationed in the island country as a part of the Peace Keeping force in the early 90s. There is no way that the people of the country can forgive these extremists for such incidents and there is no question, whatsoever of revoking the ban.

One can understand Vaiko's demand for a referendum; after all, he seems to care more about Lankan Tamils than people in his own state. However, the fact remains that India just cannot force Ceylon to take steps which can potential harm its territorial integrity. Sri Lanka is an important strategic partner for India and we cannot afford to anger them. While it may not be have much influence on the international stage, we need to realize that our relations with the islanders is extremely crucial. Moreover, if we end up 'hurting' the Lankans, they will gravitate towards the Chinese who are trying to increase their influence in the Indian Ocean region. Moreover, similar demands from nations like Pakistan to settle the long standing dispute of Kashmir will prove detrimental to our interests. As if these demand were not enough, the MDMK has called for Tamils to be appointed as ambassadors to countries with significant Tamil population. Well, the 70 year old will know that ambassadors are representative of the country and are expected to work towards improving bilateral talks and solve differences and not to protect that country's ethnic Tamil population. Some times I wonder whether leaders of smaller parties have 'small, narrow-minded outlook'. In a bid to cater to their own vote bank, they just fail to see the national picture.

There are certain points in the MDMK manifesto which are good - protecting Tamil fishermen, establishing a bench of the Supreme Court in the South and inter-linking of rivers. However, I expect a senior politician and in my opinion, the most honest Dravidian politician to be more thoughtful. It will help our country if even our regional players would see the big picture before making 'unnecessary noise'. That would go a long way in making India a true federal democracy.

THE HALF RAINBOW COALITION

CAN THE BJP AND ITS ALLIES POSE A FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE IN TN

The saffron outfit seems to be in an envious position in Tamil Nadu. No, it is not because there is some NaMo wave in the Tamil country. Nor is it that the BJP is all set to win a large chunk of the 39 seats in the southern state. In my opinion, one of the biggest highlights for the party here is that both of the two big Dravidian parties have refrained from attacking it. While Amma, who many consider to be a 'natural ally' of the BJP for her pro-Brahmin stance, may have decided to go solo in the upcoming polls, she has never attacked Modi in her rallies. The DMK which has been under fire for the alleged role of its top leaders in the multi-crore 2G scam too has gone soft on its former ally in the NDA. Having walked out of the UPA over the Lankan Tamil issue, the party supremo Karunanidhi had referred to the Gujarat CM as a 'close friend'. Even his estranged son Alagiri has backed Modi for the top post. On the other hand, the INC has failed to tie up with any party in Tamil Nadu and many of its top guns, including Finance Minister Chidambaram have refused to contest the polls. Apart from being wooed by both the AIADMK and the DMK, the saffron party has stitched together a rainbow alliance down south, joining hands with several smaller Dravidian outfits. There is little doubt that the BJP, which may lead the next government at the Centre is in the driver's seat. By forming such a formidable coalition in a state where it has nominal presence, the party has showcased its clout in the political sphere just on the eve of the 2014 General Elections.

The biggest catch for the BJP in the Tamil country has been 'Captain' Vijaykant. The Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazagham (DMDK) was also being wooed by the DMK and the Congress. In fact, when Alagiri had lashed out at the DMDK chief, the DMK patriarch had publicly rapped his son. Having won 10 percent of the votes in the state in the 2009 General Elections and finishing as the second largest party in the last state legislative polls, he will lead the NDA in the 2014, putting up candidates in 14 constituencies. The second largest partner in the grand coalition is Ramadoss' Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) which has been allocated eight seats. Popular in the northern and north-western parts of the state, especially amongst the Vaniyars, it took considerable effort on part of the BJP to get the two rivals - the DMDK and the PMK together. Even now it seems that the differences between the two parties who have common political interests, have not yet disappeared completely. Perhaps, the most vocal supporter of the candidature of the Gujarat CM in Tamil Nadu has been the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) chief Vaiyapuri Gopalaswamy, more popularly known as Vaiko. The pro-LTTE leader will field candidates in seven parliamentary constituencies. The Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi (KMDK) which has some influence in the Kongu region and the Indiya Jananayaka Katchi (IJK) has been allocated one seat each. Meanwhile, the BJP will nominate candidates in eight seats.

	Political Party	Seats Won	Vote Share
1	Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazagham (DMDK)	-	10.3
2	Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK)	-	6.4
3	Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK)	-	3.7
4	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	-	2.3
	National Democratic Alliance (NDA)	-	22.3

The above chart shows the seats won and the vote share of the major constituents of the NDA in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls.

Now let us consider the chances of the NDA in the 2014 General Elections. If we add up the vote share of the parties that form a part of the alliance today, we see that it is an impressive 22.3 per cent. Meanwhile, the DMK and the AIADMK, who are the two big parties here won 25.1 and 22.9 % of the votes in 2009. As such, I do expect the NDA to win up to 5 seats here. However, the there is much more to this coalition, at least from the BJP's point of view than just the seats. In the run up to the polls, all big leaders here, the likes of Amma, Karuna, Stalin, Vaiko and Alagiri have expressed their willingness to work with the saffronists. In a state where rivals do not see eye to eye and where differences are not restricted to politics, this is no mean feat. As such, if the BJP can finish as the largest party after the 2014 polls, it can join hands with either the AIADMK or the DMK, even if the NDA fails to perform well. Secondly, by joining hands with several smaller players, the party has proved that even under Modi it is capable of attracting allies, an art it perfected under former PM Vajpayee. In fact, getting together the DMDK and the PMK was a masterstroke. Lastly, by putting together such a formidable front, the saffron outfit has managed to isolate the Congress. The lack of friends has taken its toll. Finance Minister P Chidambaram and Shipping Minister G K Vasan have refused to contest the polls. While the party and its allies may not win many seats, it has managed to make several points.

TAMIL NADU'S MOST WANTED

DMDK'S VIJAYKANTH IS BEING WOOED BY BJP AND DMK

Courtesy: The Hindu

In the 1980s, actor Vijaykanth was considered amongst the top three superstars of the Tamil film industry along with Rajnikanth and Kamal Hassan. Now, three decades down the line, he is probably the most third most popular politician in the southern state, trailing the incumbent CM Jayalalitha and her predecessor Karunanidhi while leaving the likes of MDMK's Vaiko and PMK's Ambu Mani Ramadoss far behind. The journey has been remarkable; after delivering a rather long list of mediocre and below average cinematic performances throughout the early 2000s, 'Captain' as he is fondly called by fans and followers, took the big step into politics by forming the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) in 2005. Though he was the only candidate from his party to win the polls, he did make an impact with his party securing about 10 percent of the total votes. With a vow to dislodge the DMK from power, he entered into a pre-poll tie up with the AIADMK for the 2011 elections. Riding on the anti-incumbency wave, the alliance swept the polls with DMDK winning 29 of the 41 seats which it contested. After pushing the DMK to the third position and refusing to join the Jayalalitha cabinet, Vijaykanth became the Leader of the Opposition in the state assembly. Never in the history of Tamil Nadu had any party made such an impact in such little time since 1975 when another superstar, MGR romped to power after his public spat with Karunanidhi.

A careful analysis of his actions since 2010 indicates that Vijaykanth is aiming to do what many before him have tried to do but failed - be a third viable political option to the people of Tamil Nadu. In 2011 when there was a wave against the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (DMK) regime which was embodied in corruption and nepotism, he allied with the AIADMK. Banking on anti-incumbency, he increased his number from one to a whopping twenty-nine seats in the next polls. Speaking at a press conference following the victory, he took the credit for pushing Karunanidhi out of power, claiming that it would have been impossible for Jaya to win if it was not for him. After this phenomenal performance, he refused to be a part of the government, preferring instead to become the Leader of the Opposition. In a state which is known to vote out its ruling regime each time, Vijay's decision to stay out of the government seemed to be the right one. This position gives him enough media coverage whereas staying away from power negates any effect that anti-incumbency can have in 2016. Now the former actor is training his guns against the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (AIADMK) government to garner public support. In what is seen as a symbolic show of strength, his party even contested the Delhi elections last year where it got 2300 votes. In fact with his popularity at its peak, Vijaykanth has become Tamil country's most wanted. Both the BJP and the DMK are doing their best to forge an alliance with him. However, wooing him will not be so easy; the DMDK supremo has laid down his condition for coalition - that he will himself lead any front that his outfit will be a part of.  

Considering that he had taken a vow to dislodge the DMK from power, it may come as a surprise for many that Karunanidhi is so eager to align with the DMDK. After Alagiri hit out at Vijaykanth in an interview to a TV channel, Karuna made it clear that he would not even hesitate to sack his elder son in case the Madurai strongman does not stop his tirade against his prospective alliance partner. Considering the abysmal situation that the party finds itself in, allying with the DMDK seems to be the only option if it wants to open its account in the General polls. The alleged involvement of leaders like Kanimozhi and former Union Telecom minister A Raja in the multi-crore 2G spectrum scam led to bad press. At the same time, the failure of the UPA government at the Centre to reprimand Sri Lanka for allegedly committing atrocities against Tamils in the Jaffna region during the final days of the civil war added to the already strong anti-incumbency wave. It was under these circumstances that the DMK was relegated to the third position in the 2011 state elections. Trying to pin the blame on the Congress for the disastrous defeat, Karuna walked out off the UPA at the Centre. On the other hand, after coming to power, Amma has not done anything dramatically wrong so as to suggest that she will not do well in 2014. It is expected that under present conditions, the AIADMK is all set to sweep the Lok Sabha. In fact, the party cadre has even projected her as the Prime Ministerial candidate. The DMK supremo has no option with him. With the party health further deteriorating following differences between his sons Alagiri and Stalin, joining hands with Vijaykanth might help the DMK electorally. In a state known for vindictive politics, Karunanidhi seems to be ready to forget all names that Captain had called him in 2011, just for political gains. As they say, there are no permanent friends or enemies in politics. The problem for the DMK strong man is that some sections within the DMDK are against allying with him. They believe that the partnership will only harm the party's prospects, adversely affecting its performance in 2016.

Apart from the DMK, another party that is trying to be cozy with the DMDK is the BJP. A marginal player in Tamil Nadu for many years, the saffron outfit is hoping that the Modi wave in the Hindi heartland will help it do well even in the southern states where it does not have any significant presence. The massive crowds witnessed at the Gujarat CM's rally in Trichy is an indication that the BJP is all set to see a surge in its support base in this part of the country. Dr Subramanyam Swamy's entry into the party will help it gain Brahmin votes. However, the party is not taking any chances and planning a grand alliance of smaller players including the MDMK, PMK and DMDK to fight the DMK and the AIADMK. Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (MDMK) chief Vaiko expressed his desire to side with the saffron party ahead of the 2014 polls. His tough stance on the emotive issue of Lankan Tamils will help garner votes. The Paattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) which has a strong presence in the northern parts of the state, especially amongst the Vaniyar community, may play a spoil sport here. Though party leader Ramadoss is keen on a tie up with the BJP, he has opposed the inclusion of the DMDK in the front since both have similar political interests in northern Tamil Nadu. While the national party is hopeful that both the Dravidian parties will join hands with it, differences over seat sharing could jeopardize campaigning. It was earlier reported that even the Congress was keen on a tie-up with Captain with Rahul even wishing Captain on his 61^st birthday. Considering the anti-UPA wave in the nation and its indecisiveness over the Lankan issue, it seems that the veteran actor has ruled out this possibility for the time being.

The 2014 General polls will turn out to be extremely crucial for Vijaykanth. After its superb performance in 2011, it will be interesting to see if the DMDK can sustain the momentum which was punctured to some extent after several of its MLAs voted for AIADMK candidate in the Rajya Sabha elections, defying the party whip. A good show in the Lok Sabha polls of 2014 and a cabinet berth for some of his MPs at the Centre will help him increase his influence across the state. In case the manages to even touch a figure of 5 seats, he will move closer to his dream of being the third alternative in Tamil politics. On the other hand, you can expect few more of its MLAs to switch loyalties in case he draws a blank - a scenario where he will be back to square one. There is a feeling amongst many that it will be hard for the party to emulate its performance in 2011. They say that his alliance with AIADMK and the anti-DMK vote helped him win 20 odd seats. His inability to keep his flock together and his 'haughty' personality may further damage his credentials. Against this backdrop, the decision of allying either with the DMK or the BJP will not be an easy and will have a tremendous bearing on the future of the DMDK. Vijaykanth has made it clear that a decision in this regards will be made on February 2 at the party's state meet in Ulundurpet. Till then, all those wooing him have to wait and watch.

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: The Hindu
Original: DMDK alliance decision on February 2 (Link)