BENGAL & LOK SABHA 2014

CAN DIDI HOLD ON OR WILL THE LEFT RECLAIM ITS LOST FORTRESS?

With 42 parliamentary seats, Bengal is the third most important state as far as the General Elections are concerned. After having stormed the Left bastion, CM Mamata Bannerjee will be hoping to crush the Communists yet again although the TMC is fighting the polls alone. After the 2010 state polls where she humiliated the comrades, the Trinamool chief is indeed confident of a good showing. For the Left parties, it is a battle for survival. Reports from their strongholds in Kerala and here indicate that the Communists might be headed towards their worst figures in recent times. The Congress too is under pressure; besides the break-up with the TMC, its face in the state - Pranab Mukherjee has shifted to Rashtrapati Bhavan. The saffron outfit is dependent on Modi wave and the popularity of its candidates to cause a few upsets.

ISSUES

(1) The performance of the Mamata regime: Didi gave a clarion call for 'Poriborton' to overthrow the Left Front in Bengal. Three years down the line though, the state still continues to be plagued by the problems it faced under the Communists. Probably the only thing that has changed is that Communist goons who used to terrorize villagers have been replaced by men loyal to Mamata. Meanwhile, unemployment is high, no dissent is tolerated and there has been a rise in crimes against women. However, to her credit, the Bengal CM has been able to curtail Maoist related violence. Moreover, her rather clean public image, a rarity at least amongst regional leaders has won her the support of anti-corruption crusader Anna Hazare. While the TMC is hopeful that the development under Bannerjee government will see it through, the opposition parties are banking on anti-incumbency.

(2) Anti-incumbency against the UPA: Luckily for the TMC, the split with the Congress has saved it from having to defend the numerous failures of the INC led coalition in its second term. In the last five years, the Central government has been rocked by myriad scams like 2G, Railgate, Choppergate, Coalgate and so on. High inflation and Price rise - the issue over which the TMC severed its ties with the Congress is likely to also affect the INC's prospects. Even on the economic front, the Manmohan regime has failed to even live up to the standards it had set in its first innings. The anti-incumbency is likely to dampen Congress' chances here too.

(3) Saradha Chit Fund Scam: While anti-incumbency may be the worry for the Congress, the Saradha Chit Fund is giving head ache to Mamata and the TMC. It is believed that 17 lakh people, mainly from Bengal had lost their life-long savings in the fund whose CEO was Kunal Ghosh - former TMC MP in the Rajya Sabha who is presently behind the bars. Though he has been suspended from the party, the issue continues to be a major embarrassment for the ruling party.

(4) Secularism and Bangladeshi Migrants: The elevation of Narendra Modi to the post of BJP's official PM nominee has made 'secularism' an important issue this elections. The TMC, the Congress and the Left are all eyeing the 25 percent minority votes in the state which could be a game changer in many parliamentary seats. The Gujarat CM kicked up a storm in the state when he said that he will send back all 'illegal' Bangladeshi migrants while specifying that India is the natural home of all 'displaced' Hindus from across the border. Hitting back, the Bengal CM has dared him to do so. The war of words between the two sides has only escalated and may influence the way voters cast their votes.

CONTENDERS

(1) Trinamool Congress (TMC): Mamata Bannerjee received a big boost when Anna Hazare declared her to be the best choice to the post of the country's next Prime Minister. Buoyed by this, the TMC chief decided to go national and scheduled political rallies across the nation. However, the bon homie did not last long as Hazare skipped the Delhi rally following low attendance. Meanwhile, if reports are to be believed then the Trinamool is all set to be the third largest party in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, behind the Congress and the BJP. The incumbent CM, like Navin Patnaik in Odisha has a big choice to make once the results are out and if the electorate gives a fractured mandate. In the past, she has done business with both the two big coalitions. Her big fight with Modi in recent days has been dubbed by many as a move to retain the support of the Muslims. She could also be a choice for the PM's post if the Third Front (Link) does come to power sans the support of the Left. The TMC's list of candidates includes former footballers - Baichung Bhutia (Darjeeling) and Prasun Bannerjee (Howrah), film stars - Moon Moon Sen (Bankura), Dev (Ghatal), Satabdi Roy (Birbhum) and Tapas Pal (Krishnanagar), singer Indranil Sen (Berhampur), theatre personality Arpita Ghosh (Balurghat) and Mamata's 26 year old nephew and perhaps her political successor  Abhisekh Bannerjee (Diamond District).

(2) Left Front: While on one hand, the TMC seems to be strong, the Left is expected to struggle to even match its tally of 2009. Presently, the four Marxists parties who are a part of this alliance include the Communist Party of India - Marxist (CPI-M), the Communist Party of India (CPI), the All India Forward Block (AIFB) and the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP). Ever since losing power in 2010, the position of the Communist parties in Bengal has weakened tremendously. Moreover, to prevent the Left parties from taking the anti-UPA, anti-NDA stand, Didi has been extremely vocal in her criticism of both the Congress and the BJP. The comrades in fact need a miracle. For a Third Front government including the Left, they have to win at least 30 seats. For this to happen, Bengal holds the key. At present though, that seems to be an impossible task. In what seems to be an attempted image make over, the Reds have fielded as many as 26 new faces and has dropped 5 of its incumbent MPs.

(3) Congress: Like in Tamil Nadu, while the grand old party has presence here, the problem is with the fact that it does not have a pre-poll alliance with any strong regional player. Since it does not have a grass root level organization in Bengal that can help it win seats, the INC's situation is precarious. Moreover, after its most prominent face in the eastern state - Pranab Da was made the President of the country, the Congress does not have any popular face who can win it votes. To add to their woes, there is a strong anti-incumbency against the UPA II. Pranab's son Abhijeet Mukherjee who narrowly won a by-election from his father's constituency of Jangipur has been renominated. Union minister Adhir Ranjan Chaudhary has been given a ticket from Behrampur.

(4) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): The saffron outfit was hopeful that Modi magic will help it win support in those parts of the country, say like the north-east, the south and the east where it lacked any substantial base. Being a fringe player in Bengal for long, the party seems to have taken a leaf out of the ruling TMC's book and has fielded some famous personalities to help it get that extra edge, just to reinforce the Modi wave. These include Bollywood music composer Bappi Lahiri (Sreerampur), singer Babul Supriyo (Asansol), actor George Baker (Howrah) as well as magician P C Sarkar Jr. (Barasat). Journalist turned politician Chandan Mitra has been fielded from Hooghly. Besides, the Gorkha Janmukthi Morcha (GJM) which is fighting for a separate state of Gorkhaland to be carved out of northern Bengal has pledged its support to the BJP candidate S S Ahuwalia.

PAST PERFORMANCE

In the four Lok Sabha polls fought between 1996 and 2004 when the Left Front was still in power in Kolkata, the Marxists were the single largest block in Bengal. While it performance dipped in 1999, it made a strong comeback, winning 35 seats in 2004 when the Communists emerged as a strong political player on the national stage. The Congress was dealt a severe blow when Mamata formed the TMC and emerged as the only rival to the comrades in the late nineties. However, in 2004 she was nearly wiped off even as the Congress won 6 seats. Things changed in 2009 when the TMC and the Congress joined hands to take on the ruling Left regime which was facing the heat post the fiasco in Nandigram. The UPA finished with a superb tally of 25, reducing the Reds to 15.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Trinamool Congress (TMC)	19	1	8	7	-
Left Front	15	35	29	33	33
Congress	6	6	3	1	9
Others	2	-	2	1	-

MY PREDICTIONS

Mamata's TMC is all set to walk away with at least half of the 42 seats in the fray from here. The Left will struggle to retain its earlier tally of 1 whereas the Congress will be affected by the break up with the TMC. The BJP could win at max 3 seats.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Trinamool Congress (TMC)	20-23
2	Left Front	12-15
3	Congress	2-5
4	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	0-3
5	Others	0-2

WATCH OUT

(1) Which front will the TMC join? If the Trinamool can finish with a tally of over 20 seats, it could well be the third largest party behind the two national outfits. This will give it tremendous bargaining power if the country gives a fractured mandate. It is well difficult to speculate which way Didi will go. Though there has been a rather ugly war of words between the TMC and the BJP in the last two weeks, a special economic package could be good enough for the Bengal CM to support a Modi led NDA. Thr problem though is the Muslim vote which is crucial for success in the state. Also, since she has also been a part of the UPA earlier, she can choose to join the coalition headed by the Congress. The bitter experiences of the past could be a deterrent. And, she could be the PM nominee if the Federal Front can somehow manage to form the next government, provided the Left is pushed out of the picture.

(2) The future of the Left: With the UDF considered to be strong in Kerala and the Mamata juggernaut rolling in Bengal, the Left Front seems to be on the back foot in the two major states where it has substantial presence. Even the idea of the Third Front which the Communists has spoken about time and again has failed to take off with regional leaders failing to come together to present a strong alternative to the Congress and the BJP. If the Opinion polls are to be believed then the comrades will find it difficult to even cross the 30 seat mark. in that situation, they will not be a major force to reckon with in national politics. In fact, the regional players may even prefer to deal with Mamata if she can cross the 20 mark and if the Communists end up with a tally of less than 30.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

TRIPURA & LOK SABHA 2014

WILL THE LEFT HOLD ON TO ITS LAST BASTION

After being thrown out of Bengal by Didi and losing a close contest to the Congress in Kerala, Tripura CM Manik Sarkar saved the blushes for the Communists by retaining their citadel in the North-east (Link). The Left leader who has been in power since 1998 has an extremely clean image. In fact, while filing his papers from his constituency his total assets amounted to less than two and a half lakh rupees. As the Reds talked about the achievements of their incumbent CM on their campaigns, the principal Opposition - the Congress spoke about the regime's failure to alleviate poverty and tackle unemployment. In spite of the grand old party joining hands with two other regional outfits, the Left Front took 50 seats; the surprising part was that after being in power for so long, they had increased their tally by one seat. After such a resounding victory, hardly an year ago, you can expect the Reds to win both parliamentary seats from here. Luckily for the them, they seem to be in top position at least in Tripura unlike in Bengal and Kerala where they are predicted to lose heavily.

ISSUES

(1) The Sarkar Raj: Having won a straight fourth term, the Tripura CM Manik Sarkar is the new 'blue-eyed' in the Red camp. Hailed as the 'cleanest and the poorest' CM in the country by some newspapers, his image as a non-corrupt, performing leader will be a big poll issue for the Communists. It is believed that he deposits his monthly salary in the party fund and draws a subsistence allowance of five thousand rupees. Under him, the state has won as many as 16 awards from the Union government for the successful implementation of central schemes.

(2) The idea of a Third Front: The Left Front will sell its eternal dream of a non-BJP, non-Congress alliance to head the government at Centre during its campaign in the state. Of course, considering the difference of opinion amongst the federal leaders over key issues (Link), will this remain a 'dream' or ever materialize is a cause of concern. Meanwhile, highlighting the in-competencies of the INC led UPA government and hitting out at the NDA's PM nominee Narendra Modi's alleged role in the 2002 Gujarat riots, you can expect the Communists to ask the masses to vote for the Third Front.

CONTENDERS

(1) The Left Front: The CPI(M) and the CPI have been in power in the state continuously since 1993. As such, the Left has been the dominant power in the state for about 20 years and is expected to sweep the two seats from here this time around too. The two sitting MPs from here - Khagen Das (West Tripura) and Bajuban Reang (East Tripura) have decided to opt out of the race due to health reasons. The party has nominated two fresh faces - trade union leader Shankar Prasad Datta from the western constiutency and state Rural development and Industries Minister Jitenda Choudhury from the east.

(2) Others: The biggest problem for the Congress which is the principal Opposition here is that it is engulfed in deep rooted factionalism. In what was a major embarrassment, a party rally in Agartala was attended by less than a thousand supporters, exposing the cracks in the grand old party. Professor Arunoday Saha had filed his nominations from West Tripura. The biggest headache for the Left however, will be that Mamata Bannerjee has decided to bring her idea of 'Poribortan' to the tiny state. After decimating the Left parties in Bengal, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is all set to make her debut here and will be aiming to replicate her success in her home state. Didi has nominated former Congress minister Ratan Chakraborty and tribal leader Bhriguram Reang from the state. The other contenders include the BJP, the Aam Admi Party (AAP) and several other regional players like the Indigenous Nationalist Party of Twipra (INPT), Nationalist Conference of Tripura (NCT), the Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPFT) and the Tripura Gramin Vikash Congress (TGVC).

PAST PERFORMANCE

The comrades have painted the state red in the last five Lok Sabha polls.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Left Front (CPI-M/CPI)	2	2	2	2	2
Others	-	-	-	-	-

MY PREDICTIONS

Like so many times in the past, the Left parties are all set to win the two seats in the state. While it may not win any seats, I expect the TMC to get more votes than the Congress. It will be interesting to see if Bannerjee's party can make an impact here. If it does manage to get sizable votes, you can expect it to get few seats in the next legislative assembly elections in 2018.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Left Front (CPI-M/CPI)	2
2	Others	0

WATCH OUT

(1) The political fortunes of the Left: If the Communist have to keep both the Congress and the BJP away from power in 2014, it has to perform well in the upcoming General Elections. Of course, it will not be able to even come near its tally of 60+ seats in 2004. However, the Reds have to end with a tally of at least 30 seats if they have to remain political relevant while forming the next regime in New Delhi. Considering the precarious situation that the CPI-M finds itself in Bengal and Kerala, that seems to be a herculean task. As such, the comrades cannot take Tripura lightly and have to make sure they bag both the seats.

(2) The Rise of the Trinamool: After finishing Left domination in Bengal, Mamata Bannerjee has set her eyes on Tripura. Considering the fact that 69 percent of the state's population is Bengali, the TMC chief wants to emulate her spectacular success story in this part of the country too. If her outfit can end up with a higher vote share than the INC, you can expect several Congressmen to join her. In the coming year, the TMC can become the real challenger to the Left.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

KERALA & LOK SABHA 2014

CAN THE LEFT SALVAGE LOST PRIDE?

From Goa, we move on to another tourist destination - God's own country of Kerala. Located on the western coast, the state generally sees a bipolar contest between the Congress and the Left Front. However, if you think that the polls in the southern state that boasts of the highest literacy rate in the country are just about the two main parties, then you are way out of the mark. A lot is at stake here, quite literally. After failing to find any allies in Tamil Nadu, the refusal of KCR to merge his outfit into the INC and an impending rout in Seemandhra, the UPA's hopes are pinned on Karnataka and Kerala if it has to do well south of the Vindhyas. For the Left, the situation is even more precarious. Mamata Bannerjee seems to be getting stronger by the day in its former bastion of Bengal. For the 'Dead Front', I mean Third Front (Link) to even dream of coming to power in New Delhi, the Communist have to win a minimum of 30 seats. In that case, the Reds have to sweep Kerala so as to make up for their losses in the elsewhere.

ISSUES

(1) The Anti-Congress, anti-BJP Front: Kerala is one state where the Left's idea of an alternative front may find many takers. The Congress led UPA government at the Centre has flopped on all issues of national importance. Innumerable corruption scandals and economic slow down has tarnished the image of the country and has dented the credibility of the INC. Secondly, the elevation of Narendra Modi within the ranks of the saffron outfit has polarized the situation to some extent. In Kerala, where nearly 44 percent of the population are non-Hindus, you can expect the comrades to talk about 'Secularism' in their campaign.

(2) Kasturirangan Report on Western Ghats: The Kasturirangan report on the protection of ecological diverse Western ghats identified 123 villages in the state as Ecologically Sensitive Areas. The Ministry of Environment issued a memorandum last November to curb activities in these villages. This has angered Christian farmers who have traditionally voted for the Congress and its ally, the Kerala Congress. The influential Catholic Church too has stepped in, asking the Central government to consider the plight of the farmers. Realizing that the incumbent regime is on the back foot, the UDF has been taking a rather tough stand on this issue, both within the assembly and on the streets too.

(3) Alliance troubles for the Communists: For all, the Leftists have been the strongest advocaters of a federal formation to lead the country. For such an alliance, it is imperative that they have to join hands with nearly 10 to 15 partners across the nation, an art first displayed by Vajpayee which was later perfected by the Congress. However, can the Communists manage to hold their allies together. The political developments in Kerala over the last few days do not suggest so. The LDF received a shock last week when its former ally - the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) joined the UDF after a meeting with CM Ooman Chandy. The move comes after the CPI and the RSP failed to come to a conclusion over who amongst then two will field candidate from the Kollam seat.

CONTENDERS

(1) The United Democratic Front (UDF): The UDF, which is presently ruling in the state is led by the Congress. Unlike last time when it contested 17 of the 20 seats, it has decided to contest two seats less this time around. The INC is so confident of its good performance in the state that it has renominated 11 of its 13 incumbent including the four Union Ministers namely Kodikkunnil Suresh (Mavelikara), K C Venugopal (Alappuzha), K V Thomas (Ernakulam) and Shashi Tharoor (Thiruvananthapuram). Meanwhile, P C Chacko who headed the Joint Parliamentary Committee that looked into the 2G scam has shifted to Chalakkudi due to factionalism in the Thrissur unit of the Congress. Besides, P T Thomas, a close aide of the CM Chandy however, has been denied a ticket from Idukki following pressure from the Church over his remarks in favor of the Kasturirangan report.

The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) has got two seats as per its seat sharing arrangement with the Congress. The Minister of State for External Affairs E Ahamed will re-contest from Malappuram. Other constituents of the UDF - the Kerala Congress (Mani) and the Socialist Justice Party (SJP) have got one seat each. The Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) which grabbed all the eyeballs after its bitter divorce with the LDF has bagged the Kollam seat. On the paper, the UDF is one of the most powerful combinations in the nation today (Link).

(2) The Left Democratic Front (LDF): The Communist Party of India - Marxist (CPI-M) is the dominant partner in the LDF. The comrades know how important the Kerala polls are for its political ambitions at the Centre. However, considering the way it is throwing around its weight, it seems that it is bound to doom. It seems that the party is said to contest or support independent candidates in 15 seats. It has left out four seats for the Communist Party of India (CPI). The Janata Dal - Secular (JD-S) is set to contest from the Kottayam seat. Several smaller outfits are upset with the high-handedness of the CPI-M and are likely to damage the prospects of the Left Front. An interesting feature in the party's list is that it has declared support to as many as five independents including former Congressman Philipose Thomas from Pathanamthitta.

(3) Others: The BJP is expected to at least increase its vote share if not win a ticket in Kerala. The saffron outfit has more than a nominal presence in the northern parts of the state, especially the areas bordering Karnataka. Besides, former minister in Vajpayee cabinet, the 85 year old O Rajagopal has been fielded from the state capital. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) too has fielded some strong candidates including writer cum activist Sara Joseph (Thrissur), former IPS Officer Ajit Joy (Thiruvananthapuram) and journalist Anita Pratap (Kochi). What could go against the party are the comments made by senior leader Kumar Vishwas who taken racial digs at nurses from the state.

PAST PERFORMANCES

The below chart shows the performance of various parties in Kerala over the last five big polls. Between 1996 and 1999, the two major players - the INC and the Left Front (CPI-M and CPI) both won an equal number of seats. However, in 2004 it was the Communist who walked away with lion's share of seats. The Congress was humiliated in Kerala even as it dislodged the BJP from power in New Delhi. In 2009, as the Left dropped from 64 to 30 odd seats, the Congress increased its tally to 13 in the state. The comrades could only win only 4 seats. The IUML has been performing well in its stronghold, winning two seats, 4 out of 5 times. The Mani faction of the Kerala Congress to has displayed good consistency winning Kottayam on 4 occasions.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Congress (INC)	13	-	8	8	7
Indian Union Muslim League (IUML)	2	1	2	2	2
Kerala Congress (Mani)	1	-	1	1	1
Left (CPI-M/CPI)	4	15	8	8	7
Others	-	4	1	1	1

MY PREDICTIONS

In an earlier article I have named the UDF in Kerala as one of the potential game changers in 2014 elections (Link). Even the Times Now and the recently concluded NDTV-Hansa Research Opinion Polls seems to indicate that the Congress and its allies will do exceedingly well. I see a repeat of the 2009 election results this time around too. The UDF may drop a couple of seats to finish at 12-14 seats whereas the remaining will go the Red's kitty.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	UDF (INC/IUML/KC(M)/SJP/RSP)	12-14
2	LDF (CPI-M/CPI/JD-S)	6-8
3	Others	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) The fight for Thiruvananthapuram: While he may have in the news for all the wrong reasons including the death of his wife Sunanada Pushkar last month, the Congress has stuck with its Minister and former UN official Shashi Tharoor from the state capital. However, the fight is not going to be easy this time around. The many controversies have led to bad press. At the same time, BJP's Rajagopal too is expected to perform well. The urban voters who seem to be attracted to Narendra Modi may vote for him. Ajit Joy from the AAP is also in the fray. It will be interesting to see who will win from here.

(2) Can the saffron outfit make its debut? The BJP has a good chance to open its account in the state. The BJP seems to be strong in north and in the capital. However, can it translate into seat(s) is the big question. Earlier whenever the party seemed to be strong, the Congress and the Left would enter into a secret pact where either of the two would field a weak candidate as to prevent the division of votes. However, it seems as if no such 'sinister deals' have been made this time around as both Fronts have gone full throttle to maximize their gains. This is the opportunity for the saffronists to make their mark in state politics.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

READING BETWEEN THE LINES

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM ROUND ONE OF ASSEMBLY POLLS - 2013

Assembly Polls 2013: The Winners

With the three north eastern states that went to the polls in the early part of the year re-electing their incumbent Chief Ministers to power, the phase one of the state elections that will be held throughout 2013 came to an eventful end. While each of these had one clear winner, past experiences and a little common sense will tell us that there is certainly more to our politics than simply crossing the majority mark or forming the government. Political parties are trying hard to read between the lines, analyzing the verdict from various angles and finding issues that resonate with the people so as to chalk out effective strategies ahead of the upcoming Vidhan Soudha mandate in other states, while keeping the big daddy of them all - Lok Sabha 2014 firmly in focus. Though we cannot generalize the findings that have come out of Agartala, Shillong or Kohima with other parts of the country considering the maze that our Rajneeti is, some of the trends seen here will be of interest to both - the politicians as well as the analysts who closely track the electoral process and developments in the world's largest democracy. In my opinion, the biggest highlights which have come out of the recently concluded polls in the north eastern region are as follows:-

(1) High Voting Percentage - Jago re, Jago re, Jagooo re: Voting is certainly the most important right that the Constitution guarantees us. In the past though, we Indians have taken this privilege for granted, preferring to take the day off rather than waiting in queues in front of the election booths. However, ever since the turn of the new millennium, there has been a steady increase in

Courtesy: IBN Live

the voting percentage in most polls, right from the Panchayat level to General elections. Be it due to the sustained efforts of the Election Commission or because the electorate is becoming aware of its responsibilities, the participation of more people in these processes is a positive sign and will go a long way in strengthening our democratic credentials. In fact, electoral history was created this time around in Tripura as 93.57 percent of all registered voters cast the ballot - the highest ever since independent India's first elections in 1952. While the voting percentage in the other two states fell slightly as compared to the last assembly polls, the people in Meghalaya must be given credit for the manner in which they defied the bandh called by the extremist organization - the Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council and came out in such large numbers to make their opinions matter, reaffirming their faith in our democracy, in spite of all its flaws. Even in 2012, the polling percentage in all seven states was well above the national average. The high voter turnout is a clear indication of the fact that masses have realized every vote matters and by not voting they are helping undeserving candidates win.

(2) Anti-incumbency..... Whats that? In the years following the Emergency of 1977-78, anti-incumbency was probably, the most issue in Indian elections. In fact, except for the Left in its bastions of Bengal and Tripura, the BJP in Gujarat and the Congress in few of the north eastern provinces, fortunes of political parties in most states would change every five years. Though the BJP tried to suppress it by raising the 'feel good factor' slogan ahead of the 2004 Lok Sabha and ended up paying a heavy price, the UPA managed to win a second consecutive term. Likewise, Manik Sarkar's 'Mr Clean' image and the steps his government took to establish peace by combating extremism won him a straight forth term, saving the last fortress of the communists in the country. In Meghalaya, a state renowned for its 'Aaya Ram - Gaya Ram' politics, the vote was for stability as Mukul Roy took the Congress extremely close to the majority on its own. The numerous corruption allegations against the Rio government could not prevent the NPF from retaining power single-handedly as the Naga issue struck a chord with the electorate. Last year, while Parkash Singh Badal become the first CM in over four decades to be elected for two straight terms in Punjab, Gujarat CM Narendra Modi routed the Congress in his backyard. Meanwhile, Ikram Ibobi Singh won a third term for the INC in Manipur. The writing on the wall is clear. The public will not hesitate to vote for their sitting MLAs again, if and only if they either have an excellent report card at the end of their term or seem to have credibility to deliver on their issues that concern the aam admi. No wonder then that development, stability or even some regional sentiments can undo any damage that anti-incumbency can cause.

(3) The Left survives the lithmus test: Many analysts believed that the Tripura elections could well be the last nail in the coffin of the Communists in India if the grand coalition of the INC had managed to storm the Agartala assembly. In retrospection, one will realize that the political stars of the Red brigade took a downward turn since they pulled out support to the UPA in 2008 over the Indo-US nuclear deal. In the 2009 General elections, the Left dropped 35 seats to finish at a mere 24 and the Third Front failed

Courtesy: CPI(M)

to pose any challenge to the Congress led alliance, rendering it insignificant in the Parliament. In 2011, the Congress extracted revenge over their former buddies for the 2008 fiasco as it trounced the Marxists by four seats in a closely fought contest to win Kerala. The biggest shock though came from Bengal as Didi capitalized on the agitations in Singur and Nandigram to full fill her life long dream of coming to power in Kolkata. No wonder than that all eyes were on Tripura as three time CM Manik Sarkar led the Left Front in the battle for its last stronghold in the country. All thanks to in fighting amongst Congress leaders, the persona of Sarkar and the development work carried out by the previous regimes, the ruling alliance won a decisive victory, walking away with 50 of the 60 seats inspite of failing to deliver on issues like poverty and unemployment. While the mandate was more like an endorsement for the Sarkar government than for the Marxist ideology, the politiburo is hopeful that such an amazing performance will rejuvenate the cadre and boost its prospects in the 2014 so that it emerges as a key player on the national stage, once again.

(4) Mixed Bag for the Congress: With the Congress ruling over five of the eight north eastern states, the round one of the assembly polls 2013 was an excellent opportunity for the party to further make inroads into the region, especially because two of the states - Tripura and Nagaland which had been under its political rivals for a long time were up for grabs. With Baba's 'Mission 2014' in mind, the party got its entire top brass - the trioka of Manmohan Singh, Sonia and Rahul Gandhi to campaign here.

Courtesy: Shillong Times

However, it failed to do the ground work properly, something that the crown prince had stressed in his list of imperatives for revival. Deep rooted factionalism between leaders and faulty distribution of tickets were the prime reason for the pathetic performance of the INC and its allies in the Tripura polls. While it is true that nothing could bring down the Sarkar Raj in Agartala, the high command will certainly not be pleased by way things went for the party. Though failing to do well in Tripura is a cause of concern, there is no justification whatsoever for the disastrous numbers that the outfit got in Nagaland where it finished with just 8 seats. There is an urgent need for it to do some serious introspection so as to find out the reasons for its failure to even cross the two digit mark considering the various corruption scandals that the Rio government was embodied in. Nonetheless, Mukul Sangma emerged as the poster boy for the party as he prevented a white wash by almost winning Meghalaya on his own in spite of the various contenders in the fray. As the north eastern region which contributes a total of 25 seats to the Lok Sabha has largely been a stronghold of the Congress in the past, the party needs to make additional efforts to reach out to the people in a bid to address their concerns so as to strengthen its position prior to the big mandate.

(5) Another flop show for the BJP: After dropping the tainted Nitin Gadkari following a last minute coup by its top leaders in what has been seen as an effort to break free from the shackles of the RSS, the saffron outfit was hoping that the new President Rajnath Singh would steer it back to the top. Singh showed aggression, trying to mix the Hindutva agenda with development, hoping that its ideology will become more relevant to the youth while preserving its traditional vote bank. The most important part of this strategy was to expand the BJP beyond the Hindi heartland, taking it to hitherto unknown lands and make it a formidable power across the nation. As such, Singh took an active part in the campaign, visiting these poll bound states with other national leaders and even opening channels of communication with regional players. However, in spite of all the efforts that the former UP CM put in, the party managed to get just one seat which is embarrassing to say the least. The lone seat that it won out of the 11 it contested in Nagaland came from the Tijit constituency. Sadly, it even failed to open its account in Meghalaya and Tripura. The question staring the party is whether it can afford to think of ruling the country without a significant presence in several parts. The outfit which came into the national scene after the demolition of the Babri Masjid is virtually non-existent in Bengal, most of the north eastern states and down south. In Uttar Pradesh its influence has waned and in states like Bihar and Punjab, it plays second fiddle to other stronger partners. It is but clear that Rajnath needs to focus on building the BJP in these regions rather than simply going there just before elections or else it will never become a national party in true sense.

(6) Endgame Sangma? When Garo strongman Purno Sangma joined the National People's Party (NPP) after failing in his bid to become the thirteenth President of India, the conception, atleast in the media was that he would have a big impact on the election results in his home state of Meghalaya. The exodus of top leaders from his previous party - the NCP including his two sons into the NPP further strengthened this claim. However, the results were a shocker to Purno and his supporters. As the

Courtesy: Frontline

Congress under one Mukul Sangma inched close to majority on its own, the NPP had a disastrous debut with only two of its candidates making it to the legislative assembly, much lower than the 10 odd seats which the pundits had predicted. The Congress won 12 of the 25 seats in the Garo region - the home turf of the seasoned politician. This is significant because the NPP chief has represented this part of the country in the Lok Sabha on multiple occasions before his daughter Agatha was elected from here in 2009. Shockingly, his younger son Conrad who is a former state minister and Leader of Opposition was beaten by Clement Marak of the INC in Selsella constituency. The only consolation for the tribal leader was that his eldest son James won from Daddenggire. Many believe that the 2013 Meghalaya polls might well have sounded the end of the political career of P A Sangma, who arguably, is the most famous politician from the North east. However, it is too early to write off the NPP chief, specially because he has seen several storms (and parties of course) in his political career spanning over four decades. With the General elections just an year away, the senior Sangma will get one last opportunity to make a comeback. Meanwhile, his children - James, Conrad and Agatha are young and should work hard to live upto the legacy of their illustrious father. On the other hand, with his brother Zenith and wife Dikkanchi Shira also giving him company in the Megahalaya Vidhan Soudha, CM Mukul Sangma's family has emerged as the new first family of the state politics, atleast for the time being.

For more on the 2014 General Elections

(1) The Fall of the Triumvirate (Link)

(2) The Double Edged Sword (Link)

(3) An Ally in Need is an Ally Indeed (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Coutesy: IBN Live
Source: Northeast election; polling underway in Meghalaya, Nagaland; high turnout expected (Link)

(2) Coutesy: CPI(M) (Link)

(3) Coutesy: Shillong Times
Source: NCP locks horns with Mukul over subsidiary fiasco(Link)

(4) Coutesy: Frontline
Source: Assembly Elections: North eastern round (Link)

BATTLEGROUND TRIPURA

THE SARKAR RAJ CONTINUES

The electoral bugle has been sounded and the political stage has been set. The General elections are just an year away and the UPA is under pressure, battling anti-incumbency and the numerous corruption scandals that seem to have become the only 'hallmark' of the Congress-led alliance in its second term. On the other hand, with the BJP being engulfed in factionalism and in-fighting,

Tripura 2013: Left vs Congress

it looks as if the NDA is in no position to form the next government. After losing Kerala and being thrown out of power in Bengal, the Left Front has lost much of its influence, thereby hampering the prospects of the much talked about Third Front. As many of the regional players are yet to formally join either of the two main formations, both the national parties are doing all that they can to woo them so as to gain an advantage over the other. With 10 states going to the polls this year, political pundits are calling the 2013 assembly elections as the semi-finals before the carnival that will unfold in 2014. The manner in which the states vote will, for sure, impact the strategies of all the key players involved and will be a great opportunity for them to assess both, the mood of the electorate and their own preparedness ahead of the grand finale. As such, they are going that extra mile to connect with the masses by getting their top leaders to draw audience and diverting their 'unaccounted wealth' into the campaign.

While a few would have dismissed the voting in Tripura - the first state that goes to the polls this year as politically insignificant, the ones who are well acquainted with the state knew that the mandate here would to a certain extent, dictate the fate of the Left Front atleast in the next few months. In fact, ever since they withdrew support to the UPA government in 2008 due to differences over the Indo-US nuclear deal, the Vampanti Morcha has seen an exponential slump in its fortunes. In the following national elections, they managed to win just 24 seats, a massive decline from their all time high of 59 in the fourteenth Lok Sabha. A couple of years later, the Red brigade lost out to the Congress-led UDF in a closely fought contest. However, the biggest blow came when Trinamool supremo Mamata Bannerjee in alliance with the INC stormed the 'impregnable' Marxist bastion of West Bengal after 34 years of 'misrule'. With the Left Front getting a severe dressing down across the nation, its standing in the political spectrum has also been hampered severely; it is no more a natural magnet for the non-UPA, non-NDA government at the Centre - an eternal dream of the the upholders of federalism. As such, the comrades were doing all that they could to retain their final frontier, hoping that a victory in Agartala would help resurrect their political graph, before and after 2014.

Leading the Socialist charge was the incumbent CM Manik Sarkar, dubbed by many leading newspapers as the 'poorest CM in the country'. Holding the top job since 1998, Sarkar declared his total assets, both movable and immovable as little less than two and a half lakh rupees while filling his nomination papers

Tripura CM Manik Sarkar

from the Dhanpur constituency. It is believed that he deposits his monthly salary of Rs 9,200 in the party fund and the CPI(M) pays him a subsistence allowance of five thousand. Known for his Mr. Clean image, even his staunchest critics credit him for his ability of staying away from all sort of controversies inspite of being in power for so long. The fifteen awards that the state has been awarded by the Centre for the successful implementation of the central schemes was portrayed by the communists as an endorsement of its good governance. Almost the entire top brass of the party including politburo members - Sitaram Yechury, Brinda Karat and other prominent leaders from the Central Committee campaigned in the North eastern state. In the numerous rallies that they attended, they were seen flaying the Congress for its failure to perform at all levels while being tight lipped on issues concerning the aam admi like widespread poverty and high rate of unemployment which the Sarkar regime have failed to tackle time and again. Probably, the biggest relief for the ruling alliance came when the Trinamool Congress decided against contesting in the state this time.

While the communist exuberated confidence of retaining power, the principal opposition - the INC looked like a divided house with various sections involved in trouncing one another, further weakening the party. After General Secretary Oscar Fernandes declared the final list of 48 candidates in January this year, protests and agitation were reported from many constituencies as heavyweights like the royal scion of the erstwhile ruling family Maharaj Pradyot Manikya Bahadur and prominent party leaders like Jawhar Saha, Biva Nath, Bikas Das and Dilip Muhuri were left out. Hoping to garner the tribal support in its favour, the Congress entered into an alliance with the Indigenous Nationalist Party of Twipra (INPT) - seen as the political arm of the underground organization National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT). Headed by former rebel Bijoy Kumar Hrangkhawl, the INPT which has considerable base amongst the tribals who comprise of about 30% of the voters, was given 10 seats in the pre-poll accord. Meanwhile the Animesh Debbrama's Nationalist Conference of Tripura (NCT), the third constituent of the Congress led alliance was allowed to field one candidate. While Sonia Gandhi had to cancel her visit to the state due to ill health, Vice President Rahul Gandhi and Finance minister P C Chidambaram flew down to improve the party's prospects, lambasting the Left over insufficient development and asking the masses to give them a chance after a wait spanning approximately two decades. Other political units that have also thrown their hat in the ring are BJP, JD(U), NCP and Amar Bangali.

Development or the lack of it was the main issue in this election, depending on which side of the political divide one was. The comrades tried hard to portray Tripura as a model state, highlighting central initiatives like the MNREGA which have been

Tripura 2008: Results

carried out here in a commendable manner and banking on the persona of Sarkar. Accusing the government of failing to improve infrastructure and tackling the dual menaces of poverty and unemployment, the Congress president Sudip Roy Burman raised the slogan of 'Poribortan', aiming to replicate the success of their former ally Mamata Bannerjee in Bengal. However, unlike the TMC, the Congress was engulfed in factionalism, a fact compounded by faulty distribution of tickets thanks to the aloofness of the central observer Luizinho Faleiro. Also, the Left Front made sure that blunders like Singur and Nandigram were not replicated, not giving any chance to their adversaries to gain momentum ahead of the February 14 polls. Finally, the opposition lacked any credible leader to set their house in order and pose any sort of threat to the ruling combine. Besides, insurgency was also another much talked about topic in rallies and debates across the state. The influx of migrants into Tripura, mainly from neighbouring Bangladesh sparked off clashes between the tribals and the Bengalis in the 1980s. Militancy was particularly severe in the late nineties but counter-insurgency operations by the armed forces and efforts of successive regimes under Sarkar have taken the steam out of these banned organizations. The role of the the CM in combating the underground movement and his efforts in improving relations between the two communities was presented as another achievement of his tenure. The communist leaders slammed the INC-INPT coalition, accusing them of funding the revival of the insurgency to gain political advantage. On the other hand, the opposition hit back at the government, alleging that the member of the Left Front of being hand in gloves with the militants. Tripura has made considerable progress in this regard, especially when compared to other states in the region with terror outfits operating in the state lacking both cadre and money to carry out any attacks. However, they are reported to have changed their modulus operandi - running extortion rackets and kidnapping people for money.

The results of the Valentine day election which saw 93.57% turnout, was declared a fortnight later on February 28 along with Meghalaya and Nagaland. This was the highest percentage of polling in the electoral history of the country.

Tripura 2013: Results

As expected, the socialist won a record fifth term, their seventh in the state's history since 1978. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) won a staggering 49 seats which is over eighty percent of the strength of the assembly and is three more when compared to its numbers in 2008. The Communist Party of India also bagged one to take the alliance's tally to 50. The Chief Minister romped home to victory with over 5000 votes and so did all his cabinet colleagues - an endorsement of the policies of the previous regime. The Congress could only manage to take 10 seats like in the last assembly polls. In fact, the only silver lining for the party was that the former Speaker Jitendra Sarkar who had joined the party early this year won from Barjala constituency beating Jitendra Das who had himself defected to the Left. Surprisingly, Bijoy Kumar Hrangkhawl, the chief of the INPT lost to CPI(M)'s Lalit Kumar Debbarama from Ambassa. In fact, both allies of the INC - the INPT and the NCT failed to even open their accounts. Also, the BJP's dream to make their debut in the state failed to convert into reality as it drew a blank. 

The Left's performance in the assembly elections in their last bastion is truly commendable. The comrades will be hoping that this is the sign of the things to come. The spectacular results for the Reds has proved that they cannot be written off. While they may still find it hard to fight Mamata in Bengal or the Congress in Kerala, it can be safely assumed that they are going to win the two Lok Sabha seats from the state, unless they goof it up somehow. Surely, this thumping victory will revitalize the cadre across the country, strengthening its prospects ahead of the 2014 elections. A big part of the credit of the Left's success goes to the Chief Minister himself. In a vibrant democracy like ours, to be given a fourth chance is very rare and the margin of the victory is huge to say the least. If he continues the good work that he is credited for, he may well go on to become the longest serving CM ever, beating the record presently held by another communist leader - Jyoti Basu. For the Congress, it has to start from scratch. Firstly, the top leaders in the state need to put their differences aside and work for the welfare of the party. Next, an organizational revamp seems necessary and is expected soon. The party has to connect better with the people and corner the government over its failures. For the time being, the Sarkar Raj in Tripura is to continue for another five years.

SOURCES

(1) Deccan Herald - Manik Sarkar 'cleanest and poorest' CM (Link)

(2) The Hindu - Campaign ends in Tripura (Link)

(3) Daily News - Candidate list sets cats amongst pigeons in Tripura Congress (Link)

(4) NDTV - Tripura: All Parties (Link)

(5) Zee News - NE Election Results (Link)