JHARKHAND POLLS 2014 - Part III

KEY TAKEAWAYS

The elections to the fourth Jharkhand state legislative assembly are over and the results are out. Having analyzed the numbers, let us see the seven key takeaways from the state assembly polls.

(7) Janata Parivar's 'unimpressive' debut: A few weeks earlier, Mandalite leaders including Mulayum Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Sharad Yadav and Deve Gowda came together to form a united front against the Modi juggernaut. Rattled by the results of the 2014 General Polls wherein these former colleagues in the erstwhile Janata Dal were literally obliterated in their own turfs, the regional satraps began talks of a possible merger sometime in the near future to take on a resurgent BJP under Narendra Modi and his lieutenant Amit Shah. The state elections was the first time that two major constituents of this new 'group', namely the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Janata Dal - United (JD-U) were fighting polls together. However, their failure to win any seats shows that the new avataar of the Janata Parivar still does not have the blessings of the janata (people). For all those who believe that the two outfits have no presence in the state, they won seven seats in the last polls. Moreover, the parties ended up fielding rival candidates from same constituencies in spite of hammering a 'seat sharing' arrangement with the Congress.

(6) Another electoral setback for the Congress: Year 2014 has been a forgettable year for the grand old party. Apart from a victory in Arunachal state polls, the party has not managed to win any major election in the country in the last twelve months. From hitting historical lows in the General Elections to being relegated to the third position in traditional strongholds of Maharashtra and Haryana, the INC under the 'able' leadership of Rahul Gandhi is hardly the party that it once was till sometime back. The results of the Jharkhand polls show that the 'lean' phase that the Congress is going through is far from over. The INC dropped eight seats to finish with a tally of 6. However, what should hurt Congress the most is the decision to pull the plug on its alliance with the JMM. Had the party continued the partnership, the results could have been different. Besides, it also failed to get Babulal Marandi on board in its rather disastrous coalition with the RJD and the JD-U.

(5) Babulal Marandi's return to the saffron fold? In 2006, the state's first CM Babulal Marandi broke his ties with the BJP after fallout with the incumbent CM Arjun Munda and launched his own outfit - the JVM-P. In the 2009 polls, he contested the elections in alliance with the Congress and won 11 of the 25 seats its contested primarily thanks to his popularity and Mr. Clean image. However, in the run up to the 2014 polls, he refused to be a part of the JMM-Congress coalition since he was not projected as the front's CM candidate. Despite of many of his MLAs crossing over to other parties, it did win 8 seats and finished as the third largest party in terms of numbers behind the BJP and the JMM. However, in what could be one of the biggest surprises of the polls, Marandi was defeated in both the seats he contested - Giridh and Dhanawar. After the results, Marandi who wanted to lead an anti-BJP front prior to the polls was ready to consider being a part of the new regime. Earlier, after his elevation as the BJP's PM designate, Modi had requested the JVM-P supremo to merge his party into the BJP. Now with the BJP still needing numbers to lessen its reliance on the AJSU, the saffron camp may vigorously woo its former leader to come back. Is a 'Gharwapsi' on the cards? Let's wait and watch.

(4) Is the Modi bandwagon losing steam? Though it did emerge as the single largest party in the state, the BJP's 'lackluster' tally and its inability to cross the half way mark on its own is a clear indication that the Modi wave is weakening. Opinion polls had suggested that the saffron outfit may go well beyond the 50 seats on its own considering that it lead in 56 assembly segments if we take into account the results of the May elections and in the aftermath of the breakup of the JMM - Congress alliance. However, all that the party could manage was 37 seats with its ally - the AJSU grabbing another 5 seats. This decline is a clear fact that the 'honeymoon' period of the Modi government at the Centre was enjoying for the last six months is slowly coming to an end. The PM had promised a lot of things during his electoral campaign and its time that he starts delivering on it, failing which the BJP might suffer the same fate as the INC.

(3) A new regional leader on the block: With Shibu Soren's health deteriorating many were speculating that his outfit - the JMM could slide into the oblivion. However, the manner in which his son and the incumbent CM Hemant Soren led his party and gave a tough fight to the BJP has been appreciated from political observers and opponents alike. Had it not been for him, the JMM would have never been able to retain its 2009 tally. He got back former JMM stalwarts including Stephen Marandi and Anil Murmu back into the party to further strengthen the party. Using his limited resources and and as some people have alleged, his links with underground groups, he was able to prevent the BJP to win a simple majority on its own. At the same time, there are some things that the younger Soren needs to address. His defeat from the family borough of Dhumka was a crude jolt to the JMM. Not only this, his party seems to be losing ground in its stronghold of the Santhal region which is a major cause of worry. Anyway, there is no doubt that with age on his side, Hemant Soren is fast emerging as one of the strong leaders from this part of the country and is set to play a significant role in the political scenario of Jharkhand in the future.

(2) End of Tribal politics? For long, the Sorens, the Mundas, the Marandis and the Mahatos have long dominated the politics of the state. However, the results of the 2014 state polls have come as a major setback for many of the state's top ST leaders. Four of the state's ex-CMs had to bite the dust. Arjun Munda who was considered to be the front runner to the top post was beaten from Khasran by Dasrath Gagrai of the JMM whereas former state secretary J B Tubid was defeated by Deepak Biruwa of the JMM from Chaibasa. AJSU chief and former Deputy CM Sudesh Mahato lost to JMM's Amit Kumar from Silli constituency. Babulal Marandi of the JVM-P was beaten from both the seats he contested. Incumbent CM Hemant Soren lost from his stronghold of Dhumka whereas another former CM Madhu Koda was beaten from Majhgaon.

Following the defeat of Arjun Munda, the stage is set for Jamshedpur - East MLA Raghuvar Das to become the first non-tribal CM from the state. The elevation of Das and the defeat of so many prominent tribal leaders has signaled a tectonic shift in the state politics at least for the next five years.

(1) End of political instability..... Not yet: Many have hailed the Jharkhand verdict as a vote for stability, something that the state had lacked for the past 14 years. With the BJP and the AJSU winning 42 seats, there is a strong belief that the state may have a stable regime for the next five years. Sadly though, in my opinion, that could be far from reality. The saffron outfit needs the support of 5 AJSU legislators to be in majority; past records tell us that the Sudesh Mahato led party is 'unreliable' and could keep the new CM on tenterhooks. That is not all. BJP's own former CM Arjun Munda may have lost the polls himself. However, he too will push for more ministries for his camp by playing the tribal card. Amongst the 6 smaller parties with one MLA each, the BJP will find it difficult to align with the two MLAs from the Leftist ideology or take help from controversial MLAs like Madhu Koda's wife Geeta or jailed leader Enos Ekka who is facing murder charges. Besides, getting back Babulal Marandi too isn't going to be easy. He too may play hard ball by pushing for becoming the CM of the state.

For all posts related to the Jharkhand State Polls 2014, click here (Link)

JHARKHAND POLLS 2014 - Part II

THE RESULTS

While the Opinion polls had suggested a 50+ tally for the BJP and its allies, the NDA managed to scrape past the half way mark by winning of 42 seats in the 81 member Jharkhand legislative assembly. Nevertheless it was the first time in the fourteen year long history of the state that the electorate here had given a clear mandate to one party or a pre-poll front. The BJP should be disappointed; having won 12 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in May this year and led in about 50 assembly segments, the saffron outfit's sheet is much below the expected mark. On the other hand, the ruling JMM too has reasons to be happy from the verdict; in spite of fighting anti-incumbency, the regional party managed to increase the tally it secured in the 2009 polls by a single seat. The Congress that contested the polls in alliance with the newly created Janta Parivar was routed, quite literally. Babulal Marandi's JVM-P too had its share of highs and lows.

Before, going into the details, here is a look at the final results as published on the ECI website (Link).

 

Sr.	Party Name	Seats
1.	National Democratic Alliance (NDA)	42
a.	- Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	37
b.	- All Jharkhand Student's Union (AJSU)	5
2.	JMM Front	19
a.	- Jharkhand Mukthi Morcha (JMM)	19
3.	United Progressive Alliance (UPA)	06
a.	- Indian National Congress (INC)	06
b.	- Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)	-
c.	- Janata Dal - United (JD-U)	-
4.	JVM-P Front	08
a.	- Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM-P)	08
b.	- Trinamool Congress (TMC)	-
5.	Others	06
a.	- Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)	1
b.	- Communist Party of India - Marxist-Leninist Liberation (CPI-MLL)	1
c.	- Jai Bharat Samanta Party (JBSP)	1
d.	- Jharkhand Party (JP)	1
e.	- Marxist Co-Ordination (MCO)	1
f.	- Navjawan Sangharsh Morcha (NSM)	1

Now coming back to the 'victors'. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) did end up as the single largest party in the state. However, what should worry the saffronists is that they could not go past the 41 mark on their own. After the results in the General Elections, pundits were expecting the party to nearly triple its 2009 tally of eighteen seats. With its ally, the All Jharkhand Student's Union (AJSU) winning 5 of the 8 seats that it fought in alliance with the BJP, the combine is all set to form the next government in Ranchi. The point to note is that in spite of their reasonably 'good' showing, the top leaders of both these outfits had to face defeat in their constituencies. Three time state CM Arjun Munda was beaten by JMM nominee Dasrath Gagrai from Khasran; Gagrai who had contested as a JVM-P candidate in 2009 had given lost a close contest to Munda back then. Meanwhile, AJSU chief Sudesh Mahato who hadd served as the state's Deputy CM too had to bit the dust from Silli constituency. The immediate consequence of this is that it has opened up the race for the CM's chair. Raghuvar Das who won from Jameshedpur - East is believed to be the front runner followed by state BJP unit president Ravindra Rai.

Though his party may have lost power, the outgoing CM and JMM leader Hemant Soren has emerged as a strong regional leader post the elections. Though his father and JMM supremo Shibu Soren may not have campaigned in the polls due to ailing health, he did put up a tough fight. It was only due to his focused campaign that the BJP was not able to go beyond the 50 way mark. On the other hand, there were some reasons for worry for him as well. Though he won from Barbhait, he lost his family stronghold of Dhumka to BJP's Lois Marandi. Also, the party's performance in the Santhal region was below par.

For all those Congressmen who thought that the Jharkhand polls could herald a new chapter in the INC's fortunes, especially after the successive electoral defeats in the last 12 months, their hopes were dashed. The Congress which had forged an alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Janata Dal - United (JD-U) could only manage six seats. Clearly, the move to sever ties with the JMM proved to be a blunder; besides, it also failed to strike a deal with Marandi's JVM-P which has a strong presence in certain pockets in the state. Had the party managed to form a grand alliance and bring the JMM, the JVM-P, RJD and JD-U together, the results could have been dramatically different.

Considering that most of his incumbent MLAs had switched sides prior to the polls, Babulal Marandi must be happy that he still won 8 seats. However, that seems to be the only solace for the state's first CM. Surprisingly, Marandi who is known for his 'clean' lost from both the seats that he contested. He was beaten by CPI-MLL's Rajkumar Yadav in Dhanwar and by BJP's Nirbhay Shabadi in Giridh. Meanwhile, with the BJP-AJSU combine winning a simple majority, he cannot play the role of the 'King-Maker' either. There are strong indications that Marandi's Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM-P) may join the ruling regime. Speculations are rife that the party may also be merged into the BJP.

Amongst the other smaller parties, the biggest shock came in the form of the defeat of former CM Madhu Koda from Majhgaon by JMM's Nial Puty. However, his wife Geeta managed to win the Jagganathpur constituency as a JBSP candidate. Besides, smaller regional outfits like the BSP, the JP and the NSM too bagged a seat each. Two candidates from Leftist parties like the the MCO and the CPI-MLL were also successful.

For long, it has been stated that political instability in the state has been the prime reason for Jharkhand to lag behind in the sphere of development. Illiteracy, malnutrition and poverty index continues to remain extremely high. Left winged extremism has only made the matters worse. Now that the BJP and its allies have got a clear mandate, the onus is on the party to deliver on its pre-poll promises.

For all posts related to the Jharkhand State Polls 2014, click here (Link)

JHARKHAND POLLS 2014: Part I

THE CONTENDERS

Fifteen years after it was carved out of districts comprising of southern Bihar, Jharkhand will vote in its fourth assembly elections over a period spanning nearly two months and in five different phases. Unfortunately, growing political instability and a strong presence of Naxalites have meant that the state has never been able to fulfill its true potential in spite of the fact that it is rich in minerals and other resources. As a matter of fact, ever since its creation, Jharkhand has seen nine Chief Ministers and three bouts of President's Rule making it the least politically stable state in the country in the last decade, leaving the likes of Goa and Meghalaya far behind. Hung assemblies have encouraged the politics of permutation and combination that have resulted in malpractices like horse trading, switching loyalties, merger, splits, unholy alliances and worst of all, rampant corruption and abuse of political power. With the results being scheduled on this Tuesday i.e. 23^rd December, the question everybody is asking is whether the people of the state will give a clear majority to one of the parties or coalition this time.

If the results of the 2014 General Elections are anything to go by, 'political instability' in the state may soon become passé. Riding high on the Modi wave, the BJP which was fighting the polls on its own strength after talks of a merger with Babulal Marandi's JVM-P failed, won an unprecedented 12 out of the 14 seats from here. In spite of being in an alliance with the JMM, the Congress failed to even open its account. On the other hand, Soren's outfit won two of the four seats from where it fielded its candidates. Meanwhile, other parties like the JVM-P, the RJD and the JD-U too met the same fate as the INC.

The mood in the saffron camp is upbeat; the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders and workers are confident that the trend seen in the Lok Sabha polls and the state elections in Maharashtra and Haryana will continue and the party will cruse past the half way mark along with its allies. PM Narendra Modi has addressed several rallies here that have seen attendance in large numbers. After dropping 12 seats in 2009 state polls, the BJP is confident of crossing the 40 mark this time around courtesy the Modi wave and the anti-incumbency against the incumbent Hemant Soren government. Former CM Arjun Munda (Kharsawan) and deputy CM Raghuvar Das (Jamshedpur - East) along with state party president Ravindra Rai and former Union Minister Yashwant Sinha are said to be the front runner to occupy the top post in case the 'lotus' does bloom in Ranchi.

Unlike the recently concluded state polls in Haryana, the party, aware of the state's electoral past is not taking any chances. Though it failed to woo back its former leader Babulal Marandi into the saffron fold, the BJP has cobbled up a formidable alliance with several regional players. Sudesh Mahato led All Jharkhand Student's Union (AJSU) has entered into a pre-poll pact with the BJP and will contest eight seats. The Shikaripura seat will be contested by the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). Upendra Kushwaha led Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RSLP) too has pledged its support to the NDA though it will not contest any seats.

With party chief Shibu Soren battling illness, his son and the incumbent CM Hemant Soren is heading the electoral campaign of the Jharkhand Mukhti Morcha (JMM). Although he is fighting anti-incumbency and was abandoned by the Congress after the debacle in the General Elections, the one time MLA from the family stronghold of Dhumka has managed to get on board several turncoats from other outfits like Chamra Linda from the TMC as well as Krishna Gagrai and Nizamuddin Ansari from the JVM. All ministers in his regime and most of the incumbent JMM MLAs have been retained. Veterans including Niral Purty (Majhgaon), Joba Manjhi (Manoharpur) and Niel Tirkey (Simdega) have been nominated. Soren bahu Sita who is said to have a love-hate relationship with her family has been retained from Jama in spite of being behind the bars in the 2012 horse-trading case.

After managing to stem the Modi juggernaut in Bihar by allying with the RJD and the JD-U, the Congress party called off its partnership with the JMM in the state after the latter refused to accommodate its new allies in the state coalition. Following its disastrous showing in the General polls, not many think that the INC will put up a good performance. As per the seat sharing agreement between the three parties, the Congress will contest 56 seats, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) will field nominations from 16 constituencies while leaving 9 seats for the Janata Dal - United (JD-U).

The state's first CM Babulal Marandi is confident of a good showing in spite of the fact that most of his 11 MLAs has jumped the ship prior to the polls. His party - the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajtantrik (JVM-P) won 11 of the 25 seats it contested in 2009 and he is confident of doing well again. Another former state CM, the controversial Madhu Koda who is still facing a CBI inquiry in cases of disproportionate assets is contesting from Majhgao whereas his wife Geeta is also contesting the polls from Jagganthpur.

For all posts related to the Jharkhand State Polls 2014, click here (Link)

JHARKHAND & LOK SABHA 2014

WILL JHARKHAND GIVE A DECISIVE VERDICT?

In modern Indian politics, the state of Jharkhand has become synonymous with 'political instability', a tag which was with Goa in the 1990s. Switching loyalties, horse trading, massive corruption and amassing wealth are common practices here. In its thirteenth year of existence, the state in Central India has seen as many as 9 Chief Ministers and three spells of President's Rule. In fact, on one occasion, Madhu Koda - an independent MLA was cropped to the chair. Ahead of the 2014 polls, the JMM has already tied up with the Congress, having had withdrawn their support to the Arjun Munda led BJP government in Ranchi. Meanwhile, the saffron outfit wants to ride on the Modi wave. The JVM-P under former CM Babulal Marandi too is looking to do well, on the lines its good showing in the 2009 state polls. With so many contenders in the fray, the state is likely to see a close contest. One also needs to keep in mind the fact there will legislative assembly elections here by the end of the year. Let us see how Jharkhand will vote in the Lok Sabha 2014.

ISSUES

(1) The performance of the UPA: Although the INC's prospects in Jharkhand have been strengthened after it joined hands with the JMM, the big worry for the grand old party is the anti-incumbency wave against the Manmohan regime. A plethora of scams like the 2G, Common Wealth Games, Railway Gate and Coal Gate have embarrassed the Congress. Price Rise has hit the common man hard, burning a hole in his pockets. At the same time, the economy has been shaken from the core. The will be a big issue for all the Opposition parties including the BJP, the JVM-P and the AJSU.

(2) Development: Considering the fact that the state has seen so many regime changes over the last decade, you can understand why it is still lagging behind in the sphere of development. In spite of being rich in minerals, it continues to experience severe power cuts. Moreover, like in neighboring Chhattisgarh, the Naxal movement is still strong here. With the BJP being in power for the longest period in the state, it has to take a large chunk of responsibility for this. Of course, the JMM and the Congress too have to take a fair share of blame. I expect the talk of development or rather the lack of it in Jharkhand to be a major poll subject in the coming days.

(3) The Caste Equations: The Santhals are the largest tribal group in the country. Soren's JMM generally draws its strength from this community. Another influential group in the state are the Mundas. The BJP is dependent on its two main leaders - Karia Munda and former state Chief Minister Arjun Munda to win their support. The Congress is eyeing the Dalit vote. With Muslims and Christians constituting nearly 18 percent of the state population, the INC-JMM-RJD combine as well as the JVM-P will do their best to get their backing.

CONTENDERS

(1) The UPA: In July 2013, the Congress entered into an electoral agreement with the JMM under which Hemant Soren was made the CM of Jharkhand. In return, the INC got the lion's share of the Lok Sabha seats in the state. In the last elections, the party just won a lone seat in the parliamentary polls. This time it is expected to do much better, especially with the Sorens on their side. In fact, Jharkhand is perhaps the only state in the Hindi heartland where I expect the Congress to do better than in 2009. Former Tourism and incubemt MP from Ranchi Subodh Kant Sahay has been renominated. The INC has also given tickets to Saurabh Narayan Singh (Hazaribagh), Chitrasen Sinku (Singhbhum) and Tilakdhari Prasad Singh (Koderma).

The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) seems to be content with playing the second fiddle to the Congress, at least in the big polls. In a bid to establish his son's political career, the JMM supremo has literally bid adieu to his party's prospect in New Delhi in 2014. Of course, the relations between the two partners has been far from smooth. There were talks that the regional party will contest from as many as seven seats without paying any heed to its pact with the INC. However, the outfit decided against it, fearful that the move would spell doom for its CM Hemant Soren. The party's candidates include chief Shibu Soren (Dumka), Vijay Hansda (Rajmahal) and Jagarnath Mahto (Giridih).

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is the third constituent of the UPA in Jharkhand and is likely to contest from 1-2 seats.

(2) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): In 2009, the saffron camp did exceedingly well, finishing with a tally of nine seats. However, it got a shock in the last state polls where it saw its numbers plummet from 30 to 18 seats. The BJP is hopeful that the 'Modi wave' will help it get more than half of the seats from the state. However, the strong alliance put up by the Congress, the break-up with the JD-U and the refusal of the JVM-P to join hands with it is likely to play a damper. Some of the party's nominees are Deputy Speaker in the outgoing Lok Sabha Kariya Munda (Khunti), JMM rebel Hemal Murmu (Rajmahal) and former Union Minister Yashwant Sinh's son Jayesh Sinha (Hazaribagh). 

(3) Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM-P): Formed in 2006 by the state's first CM Babulal Marandi after walking out of the BJP, the JVM-P did very well in the 2009 state polls bagging 11 seats in alliance with the Congress. However, after the INC declared its support to the JMM, Marandi decided to go to the polls all alone. He even rejected Narendra Modi's call to come back into the saffron fold. Meanwhile, the JVM-P got a shot in the arm when Congress leader and former JVM-P member Stephan Marandi returned back to the party-fold. The outfit is relying on Marandi's clean image and the failure of the other three parties - the BJP, the Congress and the JMM to improve the situation here to garner the votes. Two former IPS officers - incumbent MP Ajoy Kumar (Jamshedpur) and Amitabh Chaudhary (Ranchi) have been given tickets.

Others: The All Student's Jharkhand Union (AJSU) has demanded 'Special Status' for the state and promised creation of 50 lakh jobs if it does well in 2014 polls. The party chief Sudesh Mahato will contest from Ranchi whereas Hemalata Mohan has been given a ticket from Dhanbad. The Janata Dal-United (JD-U) will be contesting the elections for the first time on its own. Mamata Bannerji's Trinamool Congress (TMC) is making its debut this time around. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) too will field its candidates in the state and has got the support of another regional outfit - the Jharkhand People's Party (JPP).

PAST PERFORMANCES

In 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the UPA swept the state, winning 12 out of the 14 seats here. The Congress won 6 seats whereas its allies - the JMM and the RJD won 4 and 2 seats each. In 2004 though, the results were dramatically different. The BJP increased its tally by seven to finish at 8. The INC was reduced to 1 whereas the JMM did slightly better to win 2 seats. The JVM-P chief Marandi retained his Koderma parliamentary seat. One look at the results of the state elections is enough to see why Jharkhand is perhaps the most volatile state in the country today. No outfit has ever won a majority here. The BJP finished as the single largest party in 2005 winning 30 seats while the JD(U) bagged 6. The UPA finished with a combined tally of 33. In the elections held in 2009, the mandate was fractured further with the BJP and the JMM getting 18 seats each. The Congress did well to win 13 whereas Marandi's outfit bagged 11. The RJD and the JD(U) were reduced to 5 and 2 respectively.

Political Party	2009 SE	2009 LE	2005 SE	2004 LE
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	18	8	30	1
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)	18	2	17	4
Congress (INC)	13	1	9	6
Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM-P)	11	1	9	-
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)	5	-	7	-
Janata Dal - United (JD-U)	2	-	6	-
Others	14	2	13	1

(1) The Jharkhand state assembly has 81 seats.
(2) The state sends 14 seats to the Lower House of the Parliament.

MY PREDICTIONS

In a close contest, the alliance between the Congress and the JMM will help both the partners. However, with the anti-incumbency against the UPA being strong, they will at max get 5 seats in my opinion. The BJP will do better but will not be able to replicate the tally it got in 2009. The JVM-P will retain its seat whereas others may get one.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	UPA (INC + JMM)	3-5
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	5-7
3	Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM-P)	1-2
4	Others	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) Re-alignment post May 2014: As I have mentioned earlier, Jharkhand will go to the polls later this year. As such, you can expect the General Elections to have a big impact on the alliances in the battle for Ranchi. If the BJP does well, as it has been predicted by several Opinion Polls then the AJSU and the JVM-P to be open to entering into a pre-poll accord with it. In that scenario, even the opportunistic Sorens would not have any problem in ditching the INC. In case the Congress wins a third straight term, it will emerge as a magnet for allies in the state.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

THE REBELS OF THE SAFFRON BRIGADE

THE FIVE FORMER BJP CMs WHO QUIT THE PARTY

Last week, former Karnataka CM and Shimoga strongman B S Yeddyurappa rejoined the BJP (Link), an year after he had joined the Karnataka Janata Party (KJP) prior to the 2013 state elections. In fact, after the drubbing that it received in the polls and having been relegated to the third spot, the saffron outfit was left with no leader with the ability to garner votes. At the same time considering the lack luster debut that Yeddy's party had, there were doubts raised over his political future and clear question marks on his hold over the Lingayats. As such, the coming together of Yeddy and his former party is seen as a win-win situation for both. Like BSY, here's a look at five former BJP CMs who had or have quit the part at some point of time.

Madanlal Khurana: Khurana along with Vijay Kumar Malhotra and Kedarnath Sahani was one of the founding members of the BJP in the national capital. Having been the President of the ABVP, he rose through the ranks from he grass roots to become the Chief Minister of Delhi in 1993. However, three years later he was replaced by Jat leader Saheb Singh Verma after his name figured in the hawala scam. In 2003, he was named as the party's CM candidate by the then party President Venkaiah Naidu. In the last leg of his political career, he won the battle as he bagged the Moti Nagar constituency while losing the war - the BJP won 20 seats whereas the INC increased its tally to 47. The former Union minister was later made the Governor of Rajasthan. He was expelled for the first time from the party in 2005 after he lashed out at L K Advani for his comments on the Kandahar hijacking. Brought back two months later after he expressed regret over his earlier remarks. In 2007, he was suspended yet again; this time for sharing stage with Uma Bharati who had formed the Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party (BJS) after being shown the door from the saffron outfit. After his negotiations to rejoin the BJP failed, he formally joined the BJS. In April 2008 though, he came back to the party after disagreements with Bharati. While Khurana senior has retired from active politics today, his sons Vimal and Harish are members of the party in Delhi. After they were denied ticket in the 2013 polls, is has been speculated that it may well be the end of the Khurana dynasty.

Keshubahi Patel: Long before Narendra Modi, Keshubhai was the face of the party in Gujarat. After severing as a minister in various state cabinets over the years, he became the CM for the first time in 1995. However his tenure was short lived; Shankersinh Vaghela split the BJP and formed the government with the support of the Congress. In 1999, he led the saffron party to a spectacular victory in the state and was made the Chief Minister for the second time. In 2001, he came under criticism for mismanagement of relief work post the Bhuj earthquake, besides the allegations of corruption and abuse of power. Finally, he was asked to step down, being replaced by Narendra Modi and the rest, as they say is history. In 2002, he was elected to Rajya Sabha from his home state. His first sign of dissidence came in 2007 when he openly targeted Modi during campaigning, asking his community to vote for a change. As the BJP romped home to power, his stature further declined. In 2012 though, he went a step further launching the Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP). Days before the elections, it was believed that the veteran would hit Modi hard and damage his prospects in many places. Much to his displeasure, the Modi wave was unstoppable. Keshubhai was one of the two GPP candidates who won. After his victory, the Hindutva icon extended an olive branch to the GPP chief and went to take his blessings personally. It may not be surprising that Patel rejoins the BJP in the days to come.

Kalyan Singh: One of the most controversial CMs in the party's history, Singh was at the helm of affairs in Uttar Pradesh during the infamous Babri Masjid demolition in December 1991. Following the incident, he resigned and the BJP government in the state was dismissed. In September 1997, he become the CM for the second time and continued for nearly two years. In 1999, he left the BJP to form the Rashtriya Kranti Party (RKP), accusing the then PM Vajpayee of orchestrating a revolt against him. In the 2002, he allied with the Samajwadi Party and won 4 seats. On the eve of the 204 Lok Sabha, he was back into the BJP. It was believed that his entry would help the saffron outfit do well here. While he won the Etah seat, the BJP's performance was pathetic, finishing with a tally of 10. In 2007, he led the party in the state polls and his below average performance pushed him to the sidelines. In 2009, he had a second fallout with the BJP. He joined hands with Mulayum and campaigned for him in 2009. The move backfired for Yadav as the Muslims who associate the Lodh leader with the Babri demolition, voted for the Congress. The SP chief publicly accepted that allying with Kalyan was a mistake, much to the embarrassment of the former CM. Singh launched another start-up - the Jan Krani Party (JS) which was another disaster, . Finally, he has rejoined the BJP and is working hard to make a mark for his son Raj Vir in state politics.

Babulal Marandi: A former primary teacher with RSS background, Marandi came into prominence in 1996 when he came close to defeating Shibu Soren from the Dumka MP seat. In the next national polls though, the Santhal leader did take revenge by beating the JMM supremo as the BJP won 12 out of the 14 seats from the Jharkhand region of the then undivided state of Bihar. A minister in the Vajpayee cabinet, he served as the first Chief Minister of the newly formed state after its inception in 2000. At the height of his political career, there was a section in the party that believed that he was getting larger than it and had to be cut to size. As such, he was replaced by Arjun Munda in 2003. In 2004, he was the only BJP MP to win from the state; in fact even Yashwant Singh was unable to retain his seat. After the debacle in 2004, he was open in his criticism of the functioning of the state government. Things reached a tipping point in 2006 when he quit the saffron party to form the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM - P). He won from Giridh in 2006 by-polls and later in 2009 too. Marandi is fast emerging as one of the most important players in the state; with 11 seats, the JVM-P is the third largest party in the legislative assembly behind the BJP and JMM. Earlier there were reports that Modi was trying hard to woo the Santhal leader with a clean public image to rejoin the party. However, he has made it clear that he will not take any such move in the near future.

Uma Bharati: Raised by Vijay Raje Scindia, Uma was an important member of the Ayodhya movement. She entered politics in her twenties and handled various portfolios in the NDA government. The Hindutva poster girl was on the pinnacle of her political life when she led the party to a fabulous victory in the key state of Madhya Pradesh in 2003 wining a whopping three-fourths majority. The sanyasin was made the Chief Minister but had to resign just an year into office after an arrest warrant was issued against her in the Hubli riot case. In November 2004, she hit out at Advani in front of the media during a party function and was issued a show cause notice. However, she was later let off after the intervention of the RSS. In course of time, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, her bete noire in MP was put on the CM's chair. This further infuriated here. In 2006 she launched the Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party (BJS) and contested elections in several states. However, her performance was average; in MP she could only get 4 seats. In 2010, she was re-inducted into the saffron party and two years later named the face of the UP campaign. Again, her magic failed to woo the voters here. Today, she is the Vice President of the BJP.

THE YEAR THAT WAS 2009 - PART I

SINGH IS KING, YET AGAIN

The biggest spectacle of the year 2009 was, beyond any doubt, the elections to the 15th Lok Sabha. The world's largest democracy elected its representatives to the Lower House of the Parliament between 16th April, 2009 and 13th May, 2009 with the aid of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) for the second time in a row. In spite of terror threats and calls for electoral boycott by the Maoists in many places, the Indian voters defied all odds and came out in large numbers to participate in an election which has been seen by many analyst as the fairest national elections to be held in the birthplace of democracy.

The trio of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi and youth icon Rahul Gandhi led the Indian National Congress and its allies to a remarkable electoral victory. With this victory, Manmohan Singh, who in 2004 became India's first Sikh Prime Minister also became the the first PM after Pandit Nehru to be re-elected for a consecutive term after completing a full 5 year term in office. The National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREG), the loan waiver to farmers coupled by the Mr. Clean image of Singh and the goodwill of Sonia meant that the Congress crossed the 200 mark on its own and the UPA fell just short of the half way mark.

Rahul Gandhi led the revival of the Congress in Uttar Pradesh where the party managed to win as many as 21 parliamentary seats and finished second in a four way electoral battle. The impressive figures of the Congress in UP dished all dreams of BSP supremo Mayawati to become the first Dalit PM of India. The Congress wave swept the key state of Andhra Pradesh in both, the state and the national elections. Charismatic CM Y S Rajashekar Reddy led the party to a comfortable majority in the Vidhan Soudha as he routed the TDP-TRS alliance and saw off the threat posed by Chiranjeevi's PRP. In fact, the party won 33 out of the 42 seats to the Lok Sabha from the state. The INC whitewashed the opposition in Delhi and Uttarakhand and won all but one seat in Haryana. Other states where the party outperformed all expectations included Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Punjab.

Not only the Congress but even its allies in the UPA had a lot to cheer for in these polls. Mamata Bannerjee achieved the impossible as she finally managed to breach the Left bastion of West Bengal. Didi won 19 seats and emerged as the second largest party in the ruling coalition. Also, beating all odds, the DMK got 18 seats in Tamil Nadu as Jayalalitha's AIADMK mustered just 9 seats in spite of its claims to carve a separate nation for Sri Lankan Tamils. However Sharad Pawar, who was seen as a potential Prime Ministerial candidate prior to the polls will be certainly disappointed as the NCP could send only 9 MPs to the Parliament.

The BJP's electoral slogan of 'Kushal Neta, Nirnayak Sarkar' found no takers as the party was reduced to a paltry 116 seats at the national level. The struggle for power within the party and lack of proper political organization before the elections meant that Lal Krishna Advani's last shot for the top spot ended in failure. Also the move to project Narendra Modi as the next PM candidate and calling Singh as a weak PM backfired for the party. However the real villain for the party was the Gandhi within their own ranks. Varun Gandhi's infamous communal speech at Pilibhit won him his constituency but ended up consolidating the Muslim vote in UP in the favour of the Congress. Although the BJP did well in Karnataka, Jharkhand, Bihar, Chattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh, its performance in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Assam was much below expectations. Besides, the party ended up in the fourth spot in the key state of Uttar Pradesh.

The only NDA leader who did well in the 2009 election was Nitish Kumar, the CM of Bihar. He managed to wipe off all opposition in the state and led the NDA to victory in 32 constituencies out of the total 40. BJP's oldest ally, the Shiv Sena managed to muster only 11 seats as its ideology was completely hijacked by Raj Thackeray's MNS. In fact Raj came back to haunt the BJP-SS combine and split the Marathi votes, thereby helping the Congress-NCP coalition to take Maharashtra for the third time in a row.

The biggest losers of these elections were the Left Parties. With their impregnable forts of Kerala and West Bengal being stormed, the Red brigade could only get 24 seats in these elections, a slump of 25 from the 59 seats they won the last time. Ironically for them, the move to withdraw support to the previous UPA government had clearly boomeranged on them. While the performance of other constituents of the Third Front like the BSP, TDP and AIADMK was pretty much average, the star among the Third Front leaders was Naveen Patnaik. The Orissa CM who dumped the NDA over the Left managed to win as many as 14 seats on his own and also came into power with a spectacular two-thirds majority in the state assembly.

The Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Lok Janshakti Party failed to reach sharing agreements with the Congress and decided to form a new front, hoping to be kingmakers after the election. Despite announcing support for the UPA, they only won 27 seats with SP winning only 20 odd seats, RJD reduced to only 4 and LJP failing to open its account.

On 22nd May, 2009, Manmohan Singh was sworn in as the Prime Minister at the Ashoka Hall of Rashtrapati Bhavan with the support of 322 members. As per convention, on 18th May, he had already submitted his resignation as the Prime Minister to President Pratibha Patil with a recommendation to dissolve the Council of Ministers. Former Finance Minister, P C Chidambaram was made the Home Minister whereas former Home Minister, Pranab Da was given the charge of the Finance Ministry. The former CM of Karnataka, S M Krishna was sworn in as the MEA , Veerappa Moily was given the charge of Law Ministry and Defense went to A K Anthony. Long time Congress loyalists, Anand Sharma (Commerce and Industry), Kapil Sibal (HRD), Murli Deora (Petroleum), Kamal Nath (Road) and Ghulam Nabi Azad (Power) were also accommodated in the cabinet. Among the allies, Mamata got the coveted Railway Ministry, Sharad Pawar retained the Agriculture Ministry and the DMK is represented by Azaghiri, A. Raja and Dayanidhi Maran among others.

The re-election of the UPA government to a second term is a clear indication of the fact that the Indian voter has matured over the years, in the sense that incumbency is no longer a big election issue if the people with power can deliver the goods. The results of the 15th Lok Sabha have re-affirmed the fact that while Hindutva and minority appeasement continue to be used by political parties as electoral issues, the core issue still remains - Development or as it is more commonly referred to in Indian politics as 'Roti, Kapda aur Makan'.

CHAOS WITHIN THE BJP

The BJP decided to confront the Manmohan Singh government on the issues of Governance, Development and Security as a part of its strategy to come back into power after five years of warming the Opposition benches. The electoral campaign of the saffron outfit projected its Prime Ministerial candidate, L K Advani as a strong leader who would make India safer if elected to power and condemned Singh as 'The Weakest Prime Minister in Indian History'.

The BJP's campaign faced its biggest pre-election controversy when the EC directed the District Magistrate of Pilibhit to lodge a criminal case against the BJP's candidate Varun Gandhi for his inflammatory speech against Muslims made on March 7, 2009. Varun pleaded not guilty and claimed that the voice in the tapes were not his. After reviewing the incident, the EC found Gandhi guilty of violating the model code of conduct by creating feeling of enmity and hatred between different communities and issued a recommendation the BJP to drop him from their list of candidates. However, the saffron outfit came out in support of Varun. Meanwhile the Mayawati government in Uttar Pradesh slapped the National Security Act (NSA) against the young leader and put him behind bars. Later the Supreme Court asked the UP government to revoke the Act.

Although Varun's outburst won him his constituency, it ended up polarizing the Muslim vote in favour of the Congress. The Congress won 200 odd seats in the elections with an amazing 21 seats coming from Uttar Pradesh. Also the party's move to counter the Rahul Gandhi factor by portraying Gujarat CM Narendra Modi as the next PM candidate was widely rejected by the electorate around the country. The BJP's tally of 116 seats in the Lower House presented a very sorry picture. Almost immediately, the non-RSS leaders of the party like Yashwant Sinha, Jaswant Singh and Arun Shourie called on the then president Rajnath Singh, a RSS favorite, to take moral responsibility for the electoral diaster and resign from his post.

The Chintan Baitak session of the BJP held in Shimla to asses the party’s debacle in the general elections and to strengthen its organization in the wake of the forthcoming state elections started off with a bang as senior party leader and former cabinet minister Jaswant Singh was expelled from the party. The decision came in the wake of the views expressed by Singh in his new book Jinnah : India, Independence and Partition in which he has lauded Mohammed Ali Jinnah and has blamed Nehru and Sardar Patel for India’s partition. 

Also, Rajnath Singh insisted on former Rajasthan CM Vasundararaje Scindia and the then CM of Uttarakhand, B C Khanduri to take responsibility for the party's rout in their respective states while he continued to remain in the office. Although, Khanduri agreed to the decision after some flip flops, Scindia refused to budge even as party veteran Advani was called in to mediate an amicable solution. Among Raje's demands include making her a general secretary at the national level and having an election to appoint the next Leader of Opposition in the Rajasthan Assembly, which by default, will be a Raje loyalist owing to the clout that the former royal holds in Rajsthan unit of the BJP.

Then, to make matters worse, the Liberhan Commission, the longest running inquiry by the Indian government submitted its report on the Demolition of the disputed site of Babri Masjid in Ayodhya after 48 extensions and 17 long years of running, to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. In November 2009, a day after a newspaper published the allegedly leaked contents of the report, the report was tabled in the Indian parliament by the Home Minister Chidambaram. Kalyan Singh, who was the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh during the mosque’s demolition, has come in for harsh criticism in the report. He is accused of posting bureaucrats and police officers who would stay silent during the mosque’s demolition in Ayodhya. Indicting the BJP government in Uttar Pradesh, the one-man commission said in its report: "Kalyan Singh's government was the essential component needed by the Sangh Parivar for its purposes. Kalyan Singh lived up to the expectations of the Parivar". Uma Bharti, Govindacharya and Shanker Singh Vaghela, all of whom were members of the BJP then, are held primarily responsible for the destruction of the mosque and the report says that they could have prevented the assault. Senior BJP leaders Atal Behari Vajpayee, Lal Krishna Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi are called 'pseudo-moderates'. The report holds them intellectually and ideologically responsible for the mosque’s destruction.

Like the National elections, the party's performance in the state elections was also far from satisfactory. The party won only 2 assembly seats in Andhra Pradesh, both coming from the Telangana region. In spite of accusing the Congress led governments at the Centre and in Maharashtra of being soft on terror, the BJP-SS alliance could not prevent the Cong-NCP alliance from winning a straight third term owing to the split in the Sena's traditional Marathi votes in the favour of the Raj Thackeray led MNS. The party finished fourth in the fight for power in Haryana as it won an insignificant 4 seats. When Orissa CM, Navin Patnaik broke way from the NDA many inside the party felt that he would require the help of the BJP to retain his seat as the CM of the state. However, in a triangular contest held in Orissa, Navin shocked everyone as he led the BJD-NCP-Left alliance to a two-thirds majority.

In December the saffron party came together to formally elect a new president in a bid to revive the party's fortune. In a move that clearly emphasized the sway that RSS holds in the BJP, its chief Mohan Bhagwat declared that the next president would be 'someone not from Delhi', a clear indication that he didn't want Advani aides like Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Venkaiah Naidu and Anant Kumar to hold the top job. Later, the BJP's Maharashtra chief, Nitin Gadkari succeeded Rajnath Singh as the President. Also, an era in Indian politics came to an end as Lal Krishna Advani stepped down as the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha and the vacated post went to close aide Sushma Swaraj.

The new president has a herculean task at his hand. The BJP has to clearly shun its pro Hindutva ideology and project itself as an inclusive party that stands for the development of all sections. Besides keeping the various warring factions at bay, he will have to develop a significant support base for the party amongst the youth. Also focus needs to be given to strengthen the part in the BIMARU states, especially UP where the party's fortunes have declined over the years.

INFLATION AND RECESSION HIT THE AAM AADMI

Although Prime Minister Manmohan Singh managed to lead the UPA into a second consecutive term, the principal opposition groups, namely the NDA and the Left Front managed to corner his government over the issue of soaring prices. A delayed monsoon added fuel to the fire as prices of essential commodities skyrocketed. Gradually the prices of daily products like sugar, vegetables and pulses reached an all time high level. The government tried to control the escalating prices by cracking down on hoarders and subsidizing essential products for the poor. Probably what did more damage to the government were the remarks expressed by many of Union ministers who claimed that the factors that led to price rise were beyond the control of the Centre. This clearly showed the inability and in many ways the lack of determination on the part of the government to get this situation under its control. The food price inflation in India soared to decade's highest level of 19.95 per cent in the first week of December.
While the poor were struggling to make their ends meet, the rich were feeling the heat of the Global meltdown. In 2009, the US economy was in recession, the biggest since the ‘Great Depression’ of 1929, and its tremors were also felt across the world markets, both big and small. The Indian outsourcing industry, which at then employed over 2 million people and is the principal driving force behind urbanization in India, was dealt a severe blow. Cutbacks, fewer benefits and job losses became the order of the day as even eminent companies struggled to remain afloat.

The Depression has, in many ways separated the extraordinary from the mediocre. As the world emerged from the clout of the recession, the manner in which the economies of the Asia-Pacific region avoided recession was appreciated all over the world. In fact, India recorded a 7.9 per cent rise in the GDP, thereby meeting market expectations and the stock market responded positively.

RED TERROR STRIKES

The year 2009 witnessed the outlawed Maoist take on an more aggressive approach towards the Indian Government. The Taliban style execution of Francis Induwar, Special Branch Inspector on 30th September was one of the innumerable acts of violence committed by them in the bygone year. The Naxals had earlier said that they would free Induwar if the government released Kobad Ghandy, Chattradhar Mahato, and Chandra Bhushan Yadav, three key Maoist leaders captured by security agencies from different parts of the country. Days after the government rejected this proposed swap, the Inspector's body was found on the Ranchi-Jamshedpur Highway. His head had been severed from his body. Near the Inspector's body, a note by the Naxals, attributing his death to 'police repression'. Among Induwar's colleagues, there's mourning mixed with anger. "We are ready to do our duty, but we need protection. In this atmosphere, how can we carry on working?" asked Ramsarekh Singh, Head, Jharkhand Police Association.

Naxalites struck across Jharkhand and Bihar a day before the states went to polls in the second phase of Lok Sabha elections. On 22nd April, the Naxals seized the Gomo-Mogulsarai BDM train near Hehegarha railway station at about 7:30 am and released it at 11:39 hours without harming any of the passengers. The train, with nine coaches, was packed to capacity with about 700 passengers on board and people even standing on the foot boards of the coaches," Railway PRO in Dhanbad, Amerendra Das said. As a move to secure the release of their leader Chattradhar Mahato, the People's Committee on Police Atrocities (PCPA) held hostage the Delhi bound, Bhubaneshwer Rajdhani Express in Midnapore, West Bengal on 27th October, 2009. Mahato who had been spearheading the agitation against alleged police atrocities, was nabbed from the Pirka region, near Lalgarh village. Although the train was later released, the manner in which the Naxals committed this offense brought to light the fact that Red Terror had become India's topmost internal security concern.

In an earlier development, the police and security forces in Lalgarh, Paschim Medinipur, West Bengal organized an anti-naxal operation to restore law and order in the area and flush out the Maoists, whom the government accused of inciting the tribals. The area of operation covered 18 police stations in the three Maoist affected districts of Paschim Medinipur, Bankura and Purulia. After some initial resistance from the Maoist side, the security forces were able to free the region from the rebels, atleast for the time being. Although the abortive bid to net elusive Maoist leader Kishenji in Lalgarh did not bear fruits, a senior police officer said several important materials were later seized and the operation was not a total failure.

As of 2009, Naxalites are active across approximately 220 districts in several states of India accounting for about 40 percent of India's geographical area. They are especially concentrated in an area known as the 'Red corridor', where they control 92,000 square kilometers. According to India's intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), 20,000 armed cadre Naxalites were operating apart from 50,000 regular cadres working in their various mass organizations and millions of sympathizers, and their growing influence prompted Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to declare them as the most serious internal threat to India's national security. The Naxalites are opposed by virtually all mainstream Indian political groups. In February 2009, Central government announced its plans for simultaneous, co-ordinated counter-operations in all Left-wing extremism-hit states like Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal, to plug all possible escape routes of Naxalites. As a result, there have been fewer casualties than in previous years, and the Naxalites have not been able to expand their influence. 

FLOODS PARALYZE SOUTH INDIA

Early October, 2009 saw the heavy floods inundate states of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh after days of torrential rains. Atleast 269 people lost their lives in floods that are said to be the most devastrating in the last century, in these parts of the country. Over 13 lakh people were affected in five districts of Andhra Pradesh alone following unprecedented floods in Krishna river basin. The floods isolated 350 villages, leaving millions homeless. Entire Kurnool city was surrounded by 10 feet water for nearly 3 days.

In Karnataka damage to crops and property is estimated to be in the region of Rs 10,000 crore. For the first time in 60 years that the perennially drought-prone districts of north Karnataka saw such flood fury. The worst affected by the downpour and floods were parts of Bijapur, Gulbarga and Raichur districts in Northern parts of the state through which flow the rivers Krishna and Tungabhadra along with their tributaries.

Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh governments started rescue and relief work on war footing with the help of the defence forces. The tales of people displaced by the massive flooding are heart-rending."Our entire village is under water. Even our relatives and friends have the same problem. We have no clue what to do," said one. 

SWINE FLU PANDEMIC

Soon after the outbreak of H1N1 virus in the United States and Mexico in March, the Government of India started screening people coming from the affected countries at airports for swine flu symptoms. The first case of the flu in India was found on the Hyderabad airport on 13th May, when a man traveling from US to India was found H1N1 positive. Subsequently, more confirmed cases were reported and as the rate of transmission of the flu increased in the beginning of August, with the first death due to swine flu in India in Pune, panic began to spread.

The only known drug to work against H1N1 (Tamiflu) was not sold in general medical stores, to prevent the virus from developing antibiotic resistance due to excessive use. The government feared that people would pop in pills for no reason, thereby making the virus resistant to its only known cure. The problem facing the state machinery was the fact that flu infected cases were coming from across the country. The first casualty was a 14-year-old girl, Riya Sheikh. The deaTh toll soon rose and on January 1, 2010 the Indian government reported there had been 967 deaths from swine flu in the country with Pune recording as many as 124 deaths and Bangalore coming in 2nd with 74 cases.

Generic version of Tamiflu (Oseltamivir) will now be available in Indian market, several months after the first swine flu attack. Natco Pharma and Strides Arcolabs have launched their generic version of Oseltamivir, Natflu and Starflu. These drugs will be available to the customers directly under prescription.

STATEHOOD FOR TELANGANA?

The state of Andhra Pradesh continued to be in the limelight all through the year 2009. In the state elections, then CM Y S Rajashekar Reddy led the Congress to a much deserved victory over the grand TDP-TRS alliance and Cheranjeevi's Praja Rajam Party. However, the Congress satrap couldn't live long to enjoy his hard earned victory as he met a tragic end in a helicopter crash in the Nallamala ranges. While the state had not yet recovered from the shocking demise of one of the brightest stars on the Indian political horizon, torrential floods inundated many parts along the River Krishna causing immense damage to life and property.

Ahead of the 2009 General Elections in India all the major parties in Andhra Pradesh supported the formation of Telangana but it soon faded into background owing to the various tragedies that hit the state. Then in December 2009, TRS president, K C Rao started a fast-unto-death demanding that the Congress party introduce a Telangana bill in the Parliament. Student organizations, mostly from the Osmania University, employee unions and various organizations joined the movement. Scores of people commited suicide in support of Telangana state. Student organizations planned a massive rally at state legislature on December10, Government warned that the rally does not have permission and deployed police troops though out Telangana. The decline of KCR's health contributed to a sense of urgency for the central government to take a decision on the issue of Telangana statehood.

On December 9, 2009, 11:30 PM, Mr. P C Chidambaram, Union Minister of Home Affairs announced that Indian government had started the process of forming a separate Telangana state and that a resolution would be introduced in Andhra Pradesh assembly for this soon. KCR ending his 11 day fast said from his hospital bed that this a true victory of the people of Telangana. The Central government asked Andhra Pradesh state government to pass of a resolution in this regard in the legislative assembly.

Telangana celebrated the central government decision while non-Telangana regions of Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions protested. Parties like the TDP and PRP soon backtracked from their pro-Telangan stance blaming the Congress of not taking them into confidence before the Home Minister's statement. Several members of Andhra Pradesh's legislature submitted resignations to protest the creation of the new state. As of 16 December, at least 147 legislators, including Praja Rajyam Founder Chiranjeevi and many Members of Parliament had resigned in protest of the Government's decision to carve out a new state of Telangana. 22 Ministers form the State Cabinet also submitted their resignation. To counter this 90 odd MLAs from the Telangan region, cutting across all party lines resigned as a pressure tactic.

At the heart of the Telangana agitation is the possesion of the city of Hyderabad. Geographically speaking, India's sixth largest city lies in the Telangana region of present day Andhra Pradesh. However many people from Rayalseema and coastal Andhra who have commercial interests in the IT city are opposing the formation of the new state as it would mean parting ways with the city of the Nizam. Also unlike Chandigarh, Hyderabad is located deep within the proposed Telangana and so the idea of a joint capital is out of the scene. On the contrary the pro-Telangana organizaions have taken a no-compromise attitude over the question of Hyderabad.

The formation of the new state, if and when, is the perfect scenario for India to reterospect on the policy of states based on linguistic terms. Ironically, the state of Andhra Pradesh was the first state to be formed on linguistic lines after a fast-unto-death by Potti Sri Ramaloo. The demand for a separate Telangana is based primarily on the neglect that it has suffered under successive state governments. While coastal Andhra and Rayalseema have become prosperous, the people of Telangana have for long complained about the step motherly treatment metted out to them. On the other hand, smaller states do not necessarily mean development. While states like Goa, Himachal and Uttarakhand are fast maching on the path towards progress, other newly carved states like Jharkhand and Chattisgarh have been engulfed by corruption and Maoist menace.

Also the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh will open a Pandora's box. Taking a cue from protestors in Hyderabad, the GNLF renewed their call for a separate state for the Gurkhas in Northern Bengal. Several trains were blocked in Nagpur to force the authorities to approve the formation of Vidarbha from Maharashtra. Also the UP CM Mayawati wrote to New Delhi asking the PM to split her state into three smaller states - Harit Pradesh, Purvanchal and Bundelkhand. 

MADHU KODA SCAM

On 10th Oct, 2009, former Jharkhand CM Madhu Koda was charged with laundering money worth over Rs. 4000 crores. In nationwide raids by the Enforcement Directorate, assets allegedly worth Rs. 4000 crore - almost a fifth of the annual budget of the state he once ruled - were unearthed. Among others, these assets were reported to include hotels and three companies in Mumbai, property in Kolkata, a hotel in Thailand, and a coal mine in Liberia. Koda, who earlier said that he was a 'poor tribal', has total assets worth over Rs 98 lakh, as per his disclosure with the Election Commission. However investigations showed that his assets include bank deposits, bonds, shares, other savings, two cars, jewellery and land. This alleged scam is said to be the second-largest scam uncovered in India. Minister of State for Home Ajay Maken said that the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) may be asked to probe this scam, in addition to Enforcement Directorate (ED) and the Income Tax Department. In the probes, it was found that Maoists received a 30% share of the 'Koda plunder'.

Koda's life reads like a rags-to-riches tale from Bollywood. His father forced him to give up college because there wasn't enough money and ordered the 'young Madhu to find a job to fend for the family'. A disillusioned Koda, who wanted to join the army , became a labourer instead in an iron mine at Gua. He lugged lumps of iron ore for a promised sum of Rs. 20.50 per day. Koda harboured memories of corruption and exploitation at the mines. "They would get our thumb impressions against payments of Rs.20.50 and would pay us Rs.16. It left an impression on me," he had told the media.

The counting for the Jharkhand Assembly polls were held on 23rd December 2009. Shibhu Soren's JMM emerged as the single largest party in the state that threw up a hung assembly. The Congress won 14 seats while its ally, Babulal Marandi's Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) added another 11. The NDA could get only 20 seats, a significant decline in its standings as compared to the last assembly. Ironically, the BJP in a bid to prevent the UPA from coming into power in yet another state, supported the same Shibhu Soren whom it once had labelled as 'tainted' when he was in the UPA. On 30th December, 2009 Soren was sworn in as the CM of Jharkahand for the third time. He took oath along with BJP and All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) presidents Raghubar Das and Sudesh Mahto.

SOURCES

1. www.andhraroundup.com
2. www.business-standard.com
3. www.green.in.msn.com
4. www.hindubusinessline.com
5. www.ibnlive.in.com
6. www.indianexpress.com
7. www.mynews.in
8. www.news.rediff.com
9. www.thaindian.com
10. www.rajalakshmiv.sulekha.com
11. www.thehindu.com
12. www.wikipedia.org
13. www.zeenews.com

( This is the first part of a three part article on the significant events of 2009 )