JHARKHAND POLLS 2014 - Part III

KEY TAKEAWAYS

The elections to the fourth Jharkhand state legislative assembly are over and the results are out. Having analyzed the numbers, let us see the seven key takeaways from the state assembly polls.

(7) Janata Parivar's 'unimpressive' debut: A few weeks earlier, Mandalite leaders including Mulayum Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Sharad Yadav and Deve Gowda came together to form a united front against the Modi juggernaut. Rattled by the results of the 2014 General Polls wherein these former colleagues in the erstwhile Janata Dal were literally obliterated in their own turfs, the regional satraps began talks of a possible merger sometime in the near future to take on a resurgent BJP under Narendra Modi and his lieutenant Amit Shah. The state elections was the first time that two major constituents of this new 'group', namely the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Janata Dal - United (JD-U) were fighting polls together. However, their failure to win any seats shows that the new avataar of the Janata Parivar still does not have the blessings of the janata (people). For all those who believe that the two outfits have no presence in the state, they won seven seats in the last polls. Moreover, the parties ended up fielding rival candidates from same constituencies in spite of hammering a 'seat sharing' arrangement with the Congress.

(6) Another electoral setback for the Congress: Year 2014 has been a forgettable year for the grand old party. Apart from a victory in Arunachal state polls, the party has not managed to win any major election in the country in the last twelve months. From hitting historical lows in the General Elections to being relegated to the third position in traditional strongholds of Maharashtra and Haryana, the INC under the 'able' leadership of Rahul Gandhi is hardly the party that it once was till sometime back. The results of the Jharkhand polls show that the 'lean' phase that the Congress is going through is far from over. The INC dropped eight seats to finish with a tally of 6. However, what should hurt Congress the most is the decision to pull the plug on its alliance with the JMM. Had the party continued the partnership, the results could have been different. Besides, it also failed to get Babulal Marandi on board in its rather disastrous coalition with the RJD and the JD-U.

(5) Babulal Marandi's return to the saffron fold? In 2006, the state's first CM Babulal Marandi broke his ties with the BJP after fallout with the incumbent CM Arjun Munda and launched his own outfit - the JVM-P. In the 2009 polls, he contested the elections in alliance with the Congress and won 11 of the 25 seats its contested primarily thanks to his popularity and Mr. Clean image. However, in the run up to the 2014 polls, he refused to be a part of the JMM-Congress coalition since he was not projected as the front's CM candidate. Despite of many of his MLAs crossing over to other parties, it did win 8 seats and finished as the third largest party in terms of numbers behind the BJP and the JMM. However, in what could be one of the biggest surprises of the polls, Marandi was defeated in both the seats he contested - Giridh and Dhanawar. After the results, Marandi who wanted to lead an anti-BJP front prior to the polls was ready to consider being a part of the new regime. Earlier, after his elevation as the BJP's PM designate, Modi had requested the JVM-P supremo to merge his party into the BJP. Now with the BJP still needing numbers to lessen its reliance on the AJSU, the saffron camp may vigorously woo its former leader to come back. Is a 'Gharwapsi' on the cards? Let's wait and watch.

(4) Is the Modi bandwagon losing steam? Though it did emerge as the single largest party in the state, the BJP's 'lackluster' tally and its inability to cross the half way mark on its own is a clear indication that the Modi wave is weakening. Opinion polls had suggested that the saffron outfit may go well beyond the 50 seats on its own considering that it lead in 56 assembly segments if we take into account the results of the May elections and in the aftermath of the breakup of the JMM - Congress alliance. However, all that the party could manage was 37 seats with its ally - the AJSU grabbing another 5 seats. This decline is a clear fact that the 'honeymoon' period of the Modi government at the Centre was enjoying for the last six months is slowly coming to an end. The PM had promised a lot of things during his electoral campaign and its time that he starts delivering on it, failing which the BJP might suffer the same fate as the INC.

(3) A new regional leader on the block: With Shibu Soren's health deteriorating many were speculating that his outfit - the JMM could slide into the oblivion. However, the manner in which his son and the incumbent CM Hemant Soren led his party and gave a tough fight to the BJP has been appreciated from political observers and opponents alike. Had it not been for him, the JMM would have never been able to retain its 2009 tally. He got back former JMM stalwarts including Stephen Marandi and Anil Murmu back into the party to further strengthen the party. Using his limited resources and and as some people have alleged, his links with underground groups, he was able to prevent the BJP to win a simple majority on its own. At the same time, there are some things that the younger Soren needs to address. His defeat from the family borough of Dhumka was a crude jolt to the JMM. Not only this, his party seems to be losing ground in its stronghold of the Santhal region which is a major cause of worry. Anyway, there is no doubt that with age on his side, Hemant Soren is fast emerging as one of the strong leaders from this part of the country and is set to play a significant role in the political scenario of Jharkhand in the future.

(2) End of Tribal politics? For long, the Sorens, the Mundas, the Marandis and the Mahatos have long dominated the politics of the state. However, the results of the 2014 state polls have come as a major setback for many of the state's top ST leaders. Four of the state's ex-CMs had to bite the dust. Arjun Munda who was considered to be the front runner to the top post was beaten from Khasran by Dasrath Gagrai of the JMM whereas former state secretary J B Tubid was defeated by Deepak Biruwa of the JMM from Chaibasa. AJSU chief and former Deputy CM Sudesh Mahato lost to JMM's Amit Kumar from Silli constituency. Babulal Marandi of the JVM-P was beaten from both the seats he contested. Incumbent CM Hemant Soren lost from his stronghold of Dhumka whereas another former CM Madhu Koda was beaten from Majhgaon.

Following the defeat of Arjun Munda, the stage is set for Jamshedpur - East MLA Raghuvar Das to become the first non-tribal CM from the state. The elevation of Das and the defeat of so many prominent tribal leaders has signaled a tectonic shift in the state politics at least for the next five years.

(1) End of political instability..... Not yet: Many have hailed the Jharkhand verdict as a vote for stability, something that the state had lacked for the past 14 years. With the BJP and the AJSU winning 42 seats, there is a strong belief that the state may have a stable regime for the next five years. Sadly though, in my opinion, that could be far from reality. The saffron outfit needs the support of 5 AJSU legislators to be in majority; past records tell us that the Sudesh Mahato led party is 'unreliable' and could keep the new CM on tenterhooks. That is not all. BJP's own former CM Arjun Munda may have lost the polls himself. However, he too will push for more ministries for his camp by playing the tribal card. Amongst the 6 smaller parties with one MLA each, the BJP will find it difficult to align with the two MLAs from the Leftist ideology or take help from controversial MLAs like Madhu Koda's wife Geeta or jailed leader Enos Ekka who is facing murder charges. Besides, getting back Babulal Marandi too isn't going to be easy. He too may play hard ball by pushing for becoming the CM of the state.

For all posts related to the Jharkhand State Polls 2014, click here (Link)

JHARKHAND POLLS 2014 - Part II

THE RESULTS

While the Opinion polls had suggested a 50+ tally for the BJP and its allies, the NDA managed to scrape past the half way mark by winning of 42 seats in the 81 member Jharkhand legislative assembly. Nevertheless it was the first time in the fourteen year long history of the state that the electorate here had given a clear mandate to one party or a pre-poll front. The BJP should be disappointed; having won 12 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in May this year and led in about 50 assembly segments, the saffron outfit's sheet is much below the expected mark. On the other hand, the ruling JMM too has reasons to be happy from the verdict; in spite of fighting anti-incumbency, the regional party managed to increase the tally it secured in the 2009 polls by a single seat. The Congress that contested the polls in alliance with the newly created Janta Parivar was routed, quite literally. Babulal Marandi's JVM-P too had its share of highs and lows.

Before, going into the details, here is a look at the final results as published on the ECI website (Link).

 

Sr.	Party Name	Seats
1.	National Democratic Alliance (NDA)	42
a.	- Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	37
b.	- All Jharkhand Student's Union (AJSU)	5
2.	JMM Front	19
a.	- Jharkhand Mukthi Morcha (JMM)	19
3.	United Progressive Alliance (UPA)	06
a.	- Indian National Congress (INC)	06
b.	- Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)	-
c.	- Janata Dal - United (JD-U)	-
4.	JVM-P Front	08
a.	- Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM-P)	08
b.	- Trinamool Congress (TMC)	-
5.	Others	06
a.	- Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)	1
b.	- Communist Party of India - Marxist-Leninist Liberation (CPI-MLL)	1
c.	- Jai Bharat Samanta Party (JBSP)	1
d.	- Jharkhand Party (JP)	1
e.	- Marxist Co-Ordination (MCO)	1
f.	- Navjawan Sangharsh Morcha (NSM)	1

Now coming back to the 'victors'. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) did end up as the single largest party in the state. However, what should worry the saffronists is that they could not go past the 41 mark on their own. After the results in the General Elections, pundits were expecting the party to nearly triple its 2009 tally of eighteen seats. With its ally, the All Jharkhand Student's Union (AJSU) winning 5 of the 8 seats that it fought in alliance with the BJP, the combine is all set to form the next government in Ranchi. The point to note is that in spite of their reasonably 'good' showing, the top leaders of both these outfits had to face defeat in their constituencies. Three time state CM Arjun Munda was beaten by JMM nominee Dasrath Gagrai from Khasran; Gagrai who had contested as a JVM-P candidate in 2009 had given lost a close contest to Munda back then. Meanwhile, AJSU chief Sudesh Mahato who hadd served as the state's Deputy CM too had to bit the dust from Silli constituency. The immediate consequence of this is that it has opened up the race for the CM's chair. Raghuvar Das who won from Jameshedpur - East is believed to be the front runner followed by state BJP unit president Ravindra Rai.

Though his party may have lost power, the outgoing CM and JMM leader Hemant Soren has emerged as a strong regional leader post the elections. Though his father and JMM supremo Shibu Soren may not have campaigned in the polls due to ailing health, he did put up a tough fight. It was only due to his focused campaign that the BJP was not able to go beyond the 50 way mark. On the other hand, there were some reasons for worry for him as well. Though he won from Barbhait, he lost his family stronghold of Dhumka to BJP's Lois Marandi. Also, the party's performance in the Santhal region was below par.

For all those Congressmen who thought that the Jharkhand polls could herald a new chapter in the INC's fortunes, especially after the successive electoral defeats in the last 12 months, their hopes were dashed. The Congress which had forged an alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Janata Dal - United (JD-U) could only manage six seats. Clearly, the move to sever ties with the JMM proved to be a blunder; besides, it also failed to strike a deal with Marandi's JVM-P which has a strong presence in certain pockets in the state. Had the party managed to form a grand alliance and bring the JMM, the JVM-P, RJD and JD-U together, the results could have been dramatically different.

Considering that most of his incumbent MLAs had switched sides prior to the polls, Babulal Marandi must be happy that he still won 8 seats. However, that seems to be the only solace for the state's first CM. Surprisingly, Marandi who is known for his 'clean' lost from both the seats that he contested. He was beaten by CPI-MLL's Rajkumar Yadav in Dhanwar and by BJP's Nirbhay Shabadi in Giridh. Meanwhile, with the BJP-AJSU combine winning a simple majority, he cannot play the role of the 'King-Maker' either. There are strong indications that Marandi's Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM-P) may join the ruling regime. Speculations are rife that the party may also be merged into the BJP.

Amongst the other smaller parties, the biggest shock came in the form of the defeat of former CM Madhu Koda from Majhgaon by JMM's Nial Puty. However, his wife Geeta managed to win the Jagganathpur constituency as a JBSP candidate. Besides, smaller regional outfits like the BSP, the JP and the NSM too bagged a seat each. Two candidates from Leftist parties like the the MCO and the CPI-MLL were also successful.

For long, it has been stated that political instability in the state has been the prime reason for Jharkhand to lag behind in the sphere of development. Illiteracy, malnutrition and poverty index continues to remain extremely high. Left winged extremism has only made the matters worse. Now that the BJP and its allies have got a clear mandate, the onus is on the party to deliver on its pre-poll promises.

For all posts related to the Jharkhand State Polls 2014, click here (Link)

JHARKHAND POLLS 2014: Part I

THE CONTENDERS

Fifteen years after it was carved out of districts comprising of southern Bihar, Jharkhand will vote in its fourth assembly elections over a period spanning nearly two months and in five different phases. Unfortunately, growing political instability and a strong presence of Naxalites have meant that the state has never been able to fulfill its true potential in spite of the fact that it is rich in minerals and other resources. As a matter of fact, ever since its creation, Jharkhand has seen nine Chief Ministers and three bouts of President's Rule making it the least politically stable state in the country in the last decade, leaving the likes of Goa and Meghalaya far behind. Hung assemblies have encouraged the politics of permutation and combination that have resulted in malpractices like horse trading, switching loyalties, merger, splits, unholy alliances and worst of all, rampant corruption and abuse of political power. With the results being scheduled on this Tuesday i.e. 23^rd December, the question everybody is asking is whether the people of the state will give a clear majority to one of the parties or coalition this time.

If the results of the 2014 General Elections are anything to go by, 'political instability' in the state may soon become passé. Riding high on the Modi wave, the BJP which was fighting the polls on its own strength after talks of a merger with Babulal Marandi's JVM-P failed, won an unprecedented 12 out of the 14 seats from here. In spite of being in an alliance with the JMM, the Congress failed to even open its account. On the other hand, Soren's outfit won two of the four seats from where it fielded its candidates. Meanwhile, other parties like the JVM-P, the RJD and the JD-U too met the same fate as the INC.

The mood in the saffron camp is upbeat; the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders and workers are confident that the trend seen in the Lok Sabha polls and the state elections in Maharashtra and Haryana will continue and the party will cruse past the half way mark along with its allies. PM Narendra Modi has addressed several rallies here that have seen attendance in large numbers. After dropping 12 seats in 2009 state polls, the BJP is confident of crossing the 40 mark this time around courtesy the Modi wave and the anti-incumbency against the incumbent Hemant Soren government. Former CM Arjun Munda (Kharsawan) and deputy CM Raghuvar Das (Jamshedpur - East) along with state party president Ravindra Rai and former Union Minister Yashwant Sinha are said to be the front runner to occupy the top post in case the 'lotus' does bloom in Ranchi.

Unlike the recently concluded state polls in Haryana, the party, aware of the state's electoral past is not taking any chances. Though it failed to woo back its former leader Babulal Marandi into the saffron fold, the BJP has cobbled up a formidable alliance with several regional players. Sudesh Mahato led All Jharkhand Student's Union (AJSU) has entered into a pre-poll pact with the BJP and will contest eight seats. The Shikaripura seat will be contested by the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). Upendra Kushwaha led Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RSLP) too has pledged its support to the NDA though it will not contest any seats.

With party chief Shibu Soren battling illness, his son and the incumbent CM Hemant Soren is heading the electoral campaign of the Jharkhand Mukhti Morcha (JMM). Although he is fighting anti-incumbency and was abandoned by the Congress after the debacle in the General Elections, the one time MLA from the family stronghold of Dhumka has managed to get on board several turncoats from other outfits like Chamra Linda from the TMC as well as Krishna Gagrai and Nizamuddin Ansari from the JVM. All ministers in his regime and most of the incumbent JMM MLAs have been retained. Veterans including Niral Purty (Majhgaon), Joba Manjhi (Manoharpur) and Niel Tirkey (Simdega) have been nominated. Soren bahu Sita who is said to have a love-hate relationship with her family has been retained from Jama in spite of being behind the bars in the 2012 horse-trading case.

After managing to stem the Modi juggernaut in Bihar by allying with the RJD and the JD-U, the Congress party called off its partnership with the JMM in the state after the latter refused to accommodate its new allies in the state coalition. Following its disastrous showing in the General polls, not many think that the INC will put up a good performance. As per the seat sharing agreement between the three parties, the Congress will contest 56 seats, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) will field nominations from 16 constituencies while leaving 9 seats for the Janata Dal - United (JD-U).

The state's first CM Babulal Marandi is confident of a good showing in spite of the fact that most of his 11 MLAs has jumped the ship prior to the polls. His party - the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajtantrik (JVM-P) won 11 of the 25 seats it contested in 2009 and he is confident of doing well again. Another former state CM, the controversial Madhu Koda who is still facing a CBI inquiry in cases of disproportionate assets is contesting from Majhgao whereas his wife Geeta is also contesting the polls from Jagganthpur.

For all posts related to the Jharkhand State Polls 2014, click here (Link)

JHARKHAND & LOK SABHA 2014

WILL JHARKHAND GIVE A DECISIVE VERDICT?

In modern Indian politics, the state of Jharkhand has become synonymous with 'political instability', a tag which was with Goa in the 1990s. Switching loyalties, horse trading, massive corruption and amassing wealth are common practices here. In its thirteenth year of existence, the state in Central India has seen as many as 9 Chief Ministers and three spells of President's Rule. In fact, on one occasion, Madhu Koda - an independent MLA was cropped to the chair. Ahead of the 2014 polls, the JMM has already tied up with the Congress, having had withdrawn their support to the Arjun Munda led BJP government in Ranchi. Meanwhile, the saffron outfit wants to ride on the Modi wave. The JVM-P under former CM Babulal Marandi too is looking to do well, on the lines its good showing in the 2009 state polls. With so many contenders in the fray, the state is likely to see a close contest. One also needs to keep in mind the fact there will legislative assembly elections here by the end of the year. Let us see how Jharkhand will vote in the Lok Sabha 2014.

ISSUES

(1) The performance of the UPA: Although the INC's prospects in Jharkhand have been strengthened after it joined hands with the JMM, the big worry for the grand old party is the anti-incumbency wave against the Manmohan regime. A plethora of scams like the 2G, Common Wealth Games, Railway Gate and Coal Gate have embarrassed the Congress. Price Rise has hit the common man hard, burning a hole in his pockets. At the same time, the economy has been shaken from the core. The will be a big issue for all the Opposition parties including the BJP, the JVM-P and the AJSU.

(2) Development: Considering the fact that the state has seen so many regime changes over the last decade, you can understand why it is still lagging behind in the sphere of development. In spite of being rich in minerals, it continues to experience severe power cuts. Moreover, like in neighboring Chhattisgarh, the Naxal movement is still strong here. With the BJP being in power for the longest period in the state, it has to take a large chunk of responsibility for this. Of course, the JMM and the Congress too have to take a fair share of blame. I expect the talk of development or rather the lack of it in Jharkhand to be a major poll subject in the coming days.

(3) The Caste Equations: The Santhals are the largest tribal group in the country. Soren's JMM generally draws its strength from this community. Another influential group in the state are the Mundas. The BJP is dependent on its two main leaders - Karia Munda and former state Chief Minister Arjun Munda to win their support. The Congress is eyeing the Dalit vote. With Muslims and Christians constituting nearly 18 percent of the state population, the INC-JMM-RJD combine as well as the JVM-P will do their best to get their backing.

CONTENDERS

(1) The UPA: In July 2013, the Congress entered into an electoral agreement with the JMM under which Hemant Soren was made the CM of Jharkhand. In return, the INC got the lion's share of the Lok Sabha seats in the state. In the last elections, the party just won a lone seat in the parliamentary polls. This time it is expected to do much better, especially with the Sorens on their side. In fact, Jharkhand is perhaps the only state in the Hindi heartland where I expect the Congress to do better than in 2009. Former Tourism and incubemt MP from Ranchi Subodh Kant Sahay has been renominated. The INC has also given tickets to Saurabh Narayan Singh (Hazaribagh), Chitrasen Sinku (Singhbhum) and Tilakdhari Prasad Singh (Koderma).

The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) seems to be content with playing the second fiddle to the Congress, at least in the big polls. In a bid to establish his son's political career, the JMM supremo has literally bid adieu to his party's prospect in New Delhi in 2014. Of course, the relations between the two partners has been far from smooth. There were talks that the regional party will contest from as many as seven seats without paying any heed to its pact with the INC. However, the outfit decided against it, fearful that the move would spell doom for its CM Hemant Soren. The party's candidates include chief Shibu Soren (Dumka), Vijay Hansda (Rajmahal) and Jagarnath Mahto (Giridih).

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is the third constituent of the UPA in Jharkhand and is likely to contest from 1-2 seats.

(2) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): In 2009, the saffron camp did exceedingly well, finishing with a tally of nine seats. However, it got a shock in the last state polls where it saw its numbers plummet from 30 to 18 seats. The BJP is hopeful that the 'Modi wave' will help it get more than half of the seats from the state. However, the strong alliance put up by the Congress, the break-up with the JD-U and the refusal of the JVM-P to join hands with it is likely to play a damper. Some of the party's nominees are Deputy Speaker in the outgoing Lok Sabha Kariya Munda (Khunti), JMM rebel Hemal Murmu (Rajmahal) and former Union Minister Yashwant Sinh's son Jayesh Sinha (Hazaribagh). 

(3) Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM-P): Formed in 2006 by the state's first CM Babulal Marandi after walking out of the BJP, the JVM-P did very well in the 2009 state polls bagging 11 seats in alliance with the Congress. However, after the INC declared its support to the JMM, Marandi decided to go to the polls all alone. He even rejected Narendra Modi's call to come back into the saffron fold. Meanwhile, the JVM-P got a shot in the arm when Congress leader and former JVM-P member Stephan Marandi returned back to the party-fold. The outfit is relying on Marandi's clean image and the failure of the other three parties - the BJP, the Congress and the JMM to improve the situation here to garner the votes. Two former IPS officers - incumbent MP Ajoy Kumar (Jamshedpur) and Amitabh Chaudhary (Ranchi) have been given tickets.

Others: The All Student's Jharkhand Union (AJSU) has demanded 'Special Status' for the state and promised creation of 50 lakh jobs if it does well in 2014 polls. The party chief Sudesh Mahato will contest from Ranchi whereas Hemalata Mohan has been given a ticket from Dhanbad. The Janata Dal-United (JD-U) will be contesting the elections for the first time on its own. Mamata Bannerji's Trinamool Congress (TMC) is making its debut this time around. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) too will field its candidates in the state and has got the support of another regional outfit - the Jharkhand People's Party (JPP).

PAST PERFORMANCES

In 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the UPA swept the state, winning 12 out of the 14 seats here. The Congress won 6 seats whereas its allies - the JMM and the RJD won 4 and 2 seats each. In 2004 though, the results were dramatically different. The BJP increased its tally by seven to finish at 8. The INC was reduced to 1 whereas the JMM did slightly better to win 2 seats. The JVM-P chief Marandi retained his Koderma parliamentary seat. One look at the results of the state elections is enough to see why Jharkhand is perhaps the most volatile state in the country today. No outfit has ever won a majority here. The BJP finished as the single largest party in 2005 winning 30 seats while the JD(U) bagged 6. The UPA finished with a combined tally of 33. In the elections held in 2009, the mandate was fractured further with the BJP and the JMM getting 18 seats each. The Congress did well to win 13 whereas Marandi's outfit bagged 11. The RJD and the JD(U) were reduced to 5 and 2 respectively.

Political Party	2009 SE	2009 LE	2005 SE	2004 LE
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	18	8	30	1
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)	18	2	17	4
Congress (INC)	13	1	9	6
Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM-P)	11	1	9	-
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)	5	-	7	-
Janata Dal - United (JD-U)	2	-	6	-
Others	14	2	13	1

(1) The Jharkhand state assembly has 81 seats.
(2) The state sends 14 seats to the Lower House of the Parliament.

MY PREDICTIONS

In a close contest, the alliance between the Congress and the JMM will help both the partners. However, with the anti-incumbency against the UPA being strong, they will at max get 5 seats in my opinion. The BJP will do better but will not be able to replicate the tally it got in 2009. The JVM-P will retain its seat whereas others may get one.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	UPA (INC + JMM)	3-5
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	5-7
3	Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM-P)	1-2
4	Others	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) Re-alignment post May 2014: As I have mentioned earlier, Jharkhand will go to the polls later this year. As such, you can expect the General Elections to have a big impact on the alliances in the battle for Ranchi. If the BJP does well, as it has been predicted by several Opinion Polls then the AJSU and the JVM-P to be open to entering into a pre-poll accord with it. In that scenario, even the opportunistic Sorens would not have any problem in ditching the INC. In case the Congress wins a third straight term, it will emerge as a magnet for allies in the state.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

THE REBELS OF THE SAFFRON BRIGADE

THE FIVE FORMER BJP CMs WHO QUIT THE PARTY

Last week, former Karnataka CM and Shimoga strongman B S Yeddyurappa rejoined the BJP (Link), an year after he had joined the Karnataka Janata Party (KJP) prior to the 2013 state elections. In fact, after the drubbing that it received in the polls and having been relegated to the third spot, the saffron outfit was left with no leader with the ability to garner votes. At the same time considering the lack luster debut that Yeddy's party had, there were doubts raised over his political future and clear question marks on his hold over the Lingayats. As such, the coming together of Yeddy and his former party is seen as a win-win situation for both. Like BSY, here's a look at five former BJP CMs who had or have quit the part at some point of time.

Madanlal Khurana: Khurana along with Vijay Kumar Malhotra and Kedarnath Sahani was one of the founding members of the BJP in the national capital. Having been the President of the ABVP, he rose through the ranks from he grass roots to become the Chief Minister of Delhi in 1993. However, three years later he was replaced by Jat leader Saheb Singh Verma after his name figured in the hawala scam. In 2003, he was named as the party's CM candidate by the then party President Venkaiah Naidu. In the last leg of his political career, he won the battle as he bagged the Moti Nagar constituency while losing the war - the BJP won 20 seats whereas the INC increased its tally to 47. The former Union minister was later made the Governor of Rajasthan. He was expelled for the first time from the party in 2005 after he lashed out at L K Advani for his comments on the Kandahar hijacking. Brought back two months later after he expressed regret over his earlier remarks. In 2007, he was suspended yet again; this time for sharing stage with Uma Bharati who had formed the Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party (BJS) after being shown the door from the saffron outfit. After his negotiations to rejoin the BJP failed, he formally joined the BJS. In April 2008 though, he came back to the party after disagreements with Bharati. While Khurana senior has retired from active politics today, his sons Vimal and Harish are members of the party in Delhi. After they were denied ticket in the 2013 polls, is has been speculated that it may well be the end of the Khurana dynasty.

Keshubahi Patel: Long before Narendra Modi, Keshubhai was the face of the party in Gujarat. After severing as a minister in various state cabinets over the years, he became the CM for the first time in 1995. However his tenure was short lived; Shankersinh Vaghela split the BJP and formed the government with the support of the Congress. In 1999, he led the saffron party to a spectacular victory in the state and was made the Chief Minister for the second time. In 2001, he came under criticism for mismanagement of relief work post the Bhuj earthquake, besides the allegations of corruption and abuse of power. Finally, he was asked to step down, being replaced by Narendra Modi and the rest, as they say is history. In 2002, he was elected to Rajya Sabha from his home state. His first sign of dissidence came in 2007 when he openly targeted Modi during campaigning, asking his community to vote for a change. As the BJP romped home to power, his stature further declined. In 2012 though, he went a step further launching the Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP). Days before the elections, it was believed that the veteran would hit Modi hard and damage his prospects in many places. Much to his displeasure, the Modi wave was unstoppable. Keshubhai was one of the two GPP candidates who won. After his victory, the Hindutva icon extended an olive branch to the GPP chief and went to take his blessings personally. It may not be surprising that Patel rejoins the BJP in the days to come.

Kalyan Singh: One of the most controversial CMs in the party's history, Singh was at the helm of affairs in Uttar Pradesh during the infamous Babri Masjid demolition in December 1991. Following the incident, he resigned and the BJP government in the state was dismissed. In September 1997, he become the CM for the second time and continued for nearly two years. In 1999, he left the BJP to form the Rashtriya Kranti Party (RKP), accusing the then PM Vajpayee of orchestrating a revolt against him. In the 2002, he allied with the Samajwadi Party and won 4 seats. On the eve of the 204 Lok Sabha, he was back into the BJP. It was believed that his entry would help the saffron outfit do well here. While he won the Etah seat, the BJP's performance was pathetic, finishing with a tally of 10. In 2007, he led the party in the state polls and his below average performance pushed him to the sidelines. In 2009, he had a second fallout with the BJP. He joined hands with Mulayum and campaigned for him in 2009. The move backfired for Yadav as the Muslims who associate the Lodh leader with the Babri demolition, voted for the Congress. The SP chief publicly accepted that allying with Kalyan was a mistake, much to the embarrassment of the former CM. Singh launched another start-up - the Jan Krani Party (JS) which was another disaster, . Finally, he has rejoined the BJP and is working hard to make a mark for his son Raj Vir in state politics.

Babulal Marandi: A former primary teacher with RSS background, Marandi came into prominence in 1996 when he came close to defeating Shibu Soren from the Dumka MP seat. In the next national polls though, the Santhal leader did take revenge by beating the JMM supremo as the BJP won 12 out of the 14 seats from the Jharkhand region of the then undivided state of Bihar. A minister in the Vajpayee cabinet, he served as the first Chief Minister of the newly formed state after its inception in 2000. At the height of his political career, there was a section in the party that believed that he was getting larger than it and had to be cut to size. As such, he was replaced by Arjun Munda in 2003. In 2004, he was the only BJP MP to win from the state; in fact even Yashwant Singh was unable to retain his seat. After the debacle in 2004, he was open in his criticism of the functioning of the state government. Things reached a tipping point in 2006 when he quit the saffron party to form the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM - P). He won from Giridh in 2006 by-polls and later in 2009 too. Marandi is fast emerging as one of the most important players in the state; with 11 seats, the JVM-P is the third largest party in the legislative assembly behind the BJP and JMM. Earlier there were reports that Modi was trying hard to woo the Santhal leader with a clean public image to rejoin the party. However, he has made it clear that he will not take any such move in the near future.

Uma Bharati: Raised by Vijay Raje Scindia, Uma was an important member of the Ayodhya movement. She entered politics in her twenties and handled various portfolios in the NDA government. The Hindutva poster girl was on the pinnacle of her political life when she led the party to a fabulous victory in the key state of Madhya Pradesh in 2003 wining a whopping three-fourths majority. The sanyasin was made the Chief Minister but had to resign just an year into office after an arrest warrant was issued against her in the Hubli riot case. In November 2004, she hit out at Advani in front of the media during a party function and was issued a show cause notice. However, she was later let off after the intervention of the RSS. In course of time, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, her bete noire in MP was put on the CM's chair. This further infuriated here. In 2006 she launched the Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party (BJS) and contested elections in several states. However, her performance was average; in MP she could only get 4 seats. In 2010, she was re-inducted into the saffron party and two years later named the face of the UP campaign. Again, her magic failed to woo the voters here. Today, she is the Vice President of the BJP.