Showing posts with label Sushma Swaraj. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sushma Swaraj. Show all posts

June 22, 2014

MODI IN BHUTAN


THE AGENDA ON THE PM's MAIDEN FOREIGN VISIT

Courtesy: Crossed Flags Pins
While there has been much talk regarding the myriad failures of the UPA on the economic front, what many of us seem to have forgotten is that the Manmohan regime also left the country's foreign affairs in a complete mess. With the new government being sworn in, one of the major challenges before Narendra Modi and the Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj is how to improve the nation's relations with the rest of the world. An excellent step in this direction, a master stroke of sorts came in the form of the invitation that the PM sent out to the leaders of the SAARC countries to attend his swearing in, re-iterating his government's stand of maintaining peace in the entire South Asian region. With either the premiers or the representatives of all our neighboring nations descending on New Delhi to witness Modi take power, the whole episode was hailed as the BJP's regime first major accomplishment. As the former Gujarat CM settled in his new job, one of the questions doing the rounds was which country would he choose for his first official foreign trip.

There was a significant section of observers who felt that it would be logical for the new PM to return the favor and send a strong signal by visiting Islamabad. After all, his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif had defied the all powerful Pakistani army, the Islamists and other right wing elements within the establishment to come to India. However, considering his aggressive stance on Pakistan and the BJP's criticism of the previous government's 'soft approach' towards our western neighbor, a visit to Pakistan, that too at such an early stage of his tenure was ruled out. Another possible choice before Modi was China; even the incumbent Chinese President Xi Jinping's first foreign visit was to New Delhi. Of course, he did travel to Pakistan next, a trip which he could have definitely avoided. Anyway, with border dispute far from being settled and the two nations competing with each other in the race become the next big super power, the visit could have laid the agenda for future talks between the Asian giants. Japan was another country which some thought would have the pleasure of hosting the new Indian PM considering his admiration for the island nation and the progress it has made in the later half of the twentieth century. Old ally Russia and even the USA which has revoked all visa restrictions on Modi which was imposed following the Gujarat riots were also believed to be in the 'reckoning' to be the first nations to welcome him. However, as the 'honor' ultimately went to the tiny Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan, many were perplexed if Narendra Bhai had lost the opportunity to strike a deal with one of these 'big' players at the onset of his tenure.

Now, the relations between India and the tiny Himalayan kingdom stretch back to 1949 when the two neighbors signed a bilateral agreement in 1949. In fact, ties improved further as a part of our 'Himalayan frontier' policy following the Chinese invasion of Tibet and the Sino-Indian war of 1962. Over the years, New Delhi and Thimpu moved closer with the former playing a key role in the latter's external affairs. In fact, as the Indian army entered and liberated the erstwhile 'East Pakistan', Bhutan was the second country after India to officially recognize Bangladesh. Besides, we have for long been Thimpu's biggest trading partner and have invested heavily in its infrastructural development. Of course, the Himalayan neighbors have reciprocated too. In 2003, the Royal Bhutanese Army completely flushed the ULFA militants from its territories in an operation led by the Crown Prince himself. Nearly four years later, the two nations renegotiated a new treaty, replacing the one signed in 1949 which reduced our influence on Bhutan's foreign affairs, besides curbing our control over its arms imports.

While Thimpu has probably been our closest ally, there have been instances where there has been some friction between the two nations like in 1979 when we took contrasting positions over the membership of Khmer Cambodia in the Non-Alignment Movement (NAM). However, the thaw in the relations between Thimpu and New Delhi in July last year did threaten to break this six decade old friendship. Nearly an year ago as the small South Asian country went tot the polls, the Manmohan Singh government decided to discontinue the subsidiary on LPG cylinders and kerosene provided by the Indian government till then. It was believed that the move which was taken during the middle of the elections was a kind of protest against the incumbent PM Jigme Thinley's 'over-ambitious' policy of reaching over to the world without consulting India. Besides, the officials in the South Block were said to be displeased with the slow pace of work on infra projects being implemented by India assistance. As India refused to renew the pact, the rising prices hit the common Bhutanese on the streets. What came in as a surprise move though was China's offer to Bhutan to supply these essential commodities at reasonable rates. With India on the back foot, the Singh government finally decided to wake up from its deep slumber and agreed to continue with its earlier policy in what was a decision taken to keep the Chinese away from wooing our 'buddies'.

In the backdrop of this avoidable controversy on the part of our government, PM Modi's visit to Thimpu is highly significant. While we have had critical differences with Pakistan and China, a major cause of concern is that a lot of smaller players in the Sub-continent including Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and even Nepal are increasingly unhappy with us, accusing us of 'big-brotherly' treatment. Now, this is certainly not good news for us. What is a bigger cause of worry for us is that the Chinese seem to be making the best of the situation by increasing their influence in our own backyard. Beijing has tipped India to become the biggest foreign investor in Nepal, a move that has set alarm bells ringing in the South Block. China's ambitious 'String of Pearls' which includes building ports in our neighboring has been a big cause of worry for India's defense as it can be used effectively against our navy during the times of war. The cancellation of GMR's airport contract by the Mauritian government seem to have been influenced by the Chinese authorities. Beijing's interest in opening an embassy in Thimpu shows its eagerness to bury all differences with the Himalayn country. As such, it is but imperative for us to assert our position and improve our ties with our neighbors even if it means taking on the Chinese 'diplomatic' threat head on. Considering that we have had historic and deep cultural ties with nations in South Asia, it should not been hard to correct some of our past mistakes.

Besides, we do have our own personal interests in Bhutan that we need to safeguard. India has been the major trading partner, accounting for nearly 98 percent of Bhutan's total exports. We have helped Bhutan in construction of innumerable roads and dams. Considering this, PM Modi's move will for sure be a positive step. By visiting Thimpu, he has sent a strong message that to our friends across the border that we treasure our friendship, that for us, Bhutan is not not another other ally; in fact, for us, it an important and trustworthy friend. Hopefully, in the coming days, the ties between the south Asian neighbors will improve further and help both nations in the long run.

SOURCES

(1) Courtesy: Crossed Flags Pins (Link)

June 15, 2014

CROSSING THE HURDLES

THE FIVE BIG CHALLENGES THAT THE BJP OVERCAME TO WIN 2014

Original: IBN Live/Reuters
It has been about a month since the BJP created history by becoming the first political party in nearly three decades to win a simple majority on its own. Of course, we all were expecting the saffron outfit to do well and finish as the single largest party in the 16 th Lok Sabha. Even some of the leaders in the UPA including NCP supremo Sharad Pawar had said this. However, except perhaps for the team at Today's Chanakya, I don't think that any of us had thought that the results of the General Elections would be so one sided in the favor of the BJP. While the numbers may suggest that it was a cake walk for Modi & Co., those of us who followed the entire campaign will know that it was anything but that. Here are the five big hurdles that the saffronists faced and overcame in its successful quest for power after warming the Opposition benches for ten years.

(5) Controversial Entries: With the UPA battling anti-incumbency and the NaMo fever sweeping the country, leaders from many political parties and organizations flocked to the saffron camp, hoping to finish on the winning side. The BJP courted a massive controversy when Pramod Muthalik, the head of the notorious Sri Rama Sena - a right wing group, infamous for attacking women in the port city of Mangalore for going to pubs. The move did not go well as the party came under attack from the media as well as women's right groups. Even Goa CM Manohar Parrikar made his displeasure clear to the central leadership, aware that the Hindutva leader's entry could hamper the party's support amongst the Christians in Goa. As PM nominee Narendra Modi intervened, the right wing leader was shown the door, barely 5 hours after joining the BJP. A teary eyed Muthalik swore revenge and contested the elections against BJP state president Prahlad Joshi who eventually emerged as the winner with a margin of over 1 lakh votes. Similarly, the induction of former JD(U) Rajya Sabha MP Sabir Ali raised a storm with minority leader Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi slamming his party for welcoming 'terrorist Bhatkal's friend'. While he was shunted out, Ali filed a defamation case against Naqvi. However, the two made up and according to reports, the party has decided to support Ali's candidature to the Upper House of the Parliament from Bihar as an independent candidate. And lastly, how can we forget the home-coming of former Karnataka CM B S Yeddyurappa and his colleague Sriramalu into the BJP. Although both had cases of corruption against them, the BJP welcomed them with open arms in spite of repeated attacks from the Congress. The move proved to be a political master stroke; the BJP won 17 seats in the southern state just a year after being routed in the 2013 state polls (Link).

(4) Coalition troubles: Many will remember the manner in which the JD(U) walked out of the NDA, following the announcement of Narendra Modi as the PM nominee of the BJP-led coalition. We shall discus that sometime later. Meanwhile, this was not the only problem the saffron outfit had, at least in regards to its coalition partners prior to the polls. To prevent the split in the anti-UPA votes, the BJP tried to do, what many believe is next to impossible - get the Shiv Sena (SS) and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) together as a part of the 'Mahayuti' (Link). As Nitin Gadkari opened channels of negotiations with Raj, his cousin Uddhav was furious, accusing the national party of violating the coalition dharma. Finally, the BJP relented; president Rajnath Singh making it clear that the party had nothing to do with MNS. A few days before the state went to the polls, there was turbulence in Andhra too. Having joined the NDA after ten long years, the TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu was furious at his coalition partner for fielding 'weak' candidates in the assembly polls held simultaneously with the 2014 General Elections. The BJP sent its spokesperson Prakash Javdekar who succeeded in placating the former AP CM. Even Punjab CM and Akali chief Prakash Singh Badal gave the BJP some headache when he introduced Arun Jaitley as the future Home or Finance Minister in an election rally in Amritsar. This was not taken lightly by some in the saffron camp. But as they say, 'alls well that ends well'. The BJP-SS combine swept Maharashtra whereas the BJP-TDP alliance pipped the YSRCP in the southern state. And, Badal's prophecy did come true.

(3) The war of succession: I remember an article in a reputed magazine in 2005 about the war of succession amongst the second generation leaders in the BJP. It had been an year since the NDA suffered a shock defeat and the Atal-Advani era was coming to an end. Questions were being raised as to who would lead the saffron camp in the absence of these stalwarts. The names doing the rounds back then included the late Pramod Mahajan, Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Rajnath Singh and Uma Bharati. Many believed that the party would implode, much like the Janata Party did in the eighties. With the BJP failing to come to power in 2009, the situation deteriorated further. Now, I believe in may ways, it is ironical that it was Modi who took the party to its best ever performance. Ironical, because in my opinion, the stigma of the Godhra riots was one of the biggest reasons that the Vajpayee government was voted out a decade ago. The former Gujarat CM was first appointed as the head of the BJP's election campaign. A few weeks later, the party made the big decision at a convention in Goa. In spite of opposition from all corners, including some senior leaders and pressure from the JD(U), Rajnath Singh went ahead and declared Modi as the NDA's official PM candidate (Link). He did not have any choice. The cadre wanted Modi, the RSS wanted Modi and as the results have shown, the entire nation wanted Modi to undo all the harm that the two terms of UPA had done to the country.

(2) Sulking Seniors: Probably, the biggest critic of the party and its new leadership was Bhishma Pitama - Lal Krishna Advani. The former Home Minister who was the saffron outfit's PM nominee in 2009. As the party anointed Modi as its PM candidate, the veteran leader decided to stay away from the function, giving the media and the Congress much needed ammunition to target the BJP. In the run up to the 2014 polls, there were reports that the convener of the NDA wanted to shift his constituency from Gandhinagar to Bhopal, preferring to work with Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Chauhan than under Narendra Modi. After hectic negotiations, Advani was somehow convinced to contest from his constituency in Gujarat. However, his confidante Haren Patak was dropped in favor of Modi's close aide film actor Paresh Rawal - a clear signal that the time had come for the old guard to exit, 'gracefully'. Another senior leader who was not in favor of Modi assuming the charge was former president Murali Manohar Joshi. Joshi who represented Varansi in 2009 was upset on being asked to shift his seat to Kanpur in favor of Modi. Another veteran Sushma Swaraj was reported not very happy with the rise of Modi. In fact, she had hit out at the party and its policies via twitter. After that unprecedented victory though and that splendid mandate, these things seem to be a thing of the past. Sushma has been given the charge of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Joshi is a front runner to the post of the Defence Minister. Advani, meanwhile, is still sulking!

(1) The ghost of the 2002 riots: Having come to power after riding high on the Hindutva sentiments following the demolition of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya, the BJP is considered by its opponents and the so-called 'intellectuals' to be a 'communal' party. With Modi at the helm of affairs, the problem compounded further. In fact, the elevation of the former Gujarat CM within the saffron ranks made 'Secularism' one of the most important issue ahead of the 2014 General Elections. To be frank, this was the ploy used by the likes of the Congress and its allies to divert the attention of the public away from the numerous failures of the UPA regime. In fact, many believed that the candidature of Modi whose role in the 2002 Godhra riots is still under the scanner would lead to consolidation of minority votes in favor of the Congress and thus hamper the BJP's prospects. Besides, a large number of 'intellectuals' and 'scholars' came out in the open and criticized the saffron camp for promoting the then Gujarat CM and endangering the so-called 'idea of India'. Probably the biggest blow came when the JD(U), the second largest party in the NDA walked out of the 17 year long alliance. Also, many were of the opinion that the anti-minority image of the BJP would keep many prospective allies at bay. However, both Narendra Modi and the BJP did work hard for an image makeover. Modi made 'development for all' his plank during the campaign. At the same time, while the PM nominee was on a whirlwind tour across the nation, president Rajnath Singh worked overtime to stitch together a formidable alliance to fight take on a weak UPA. The return of LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan to the NDA sent out a strong signal because the former Railway Minister was the first to exit the Vajpayee government after the 2002 riots. It was a clear indication that the Godhra was a thing of the past; an indication that politicians across the political spectrum were ready to do business with Modi. A clear and resounding mandate to Modi's BJP and the decimation of the Congress, the JD(U), the RJD and others has shown that the people of the world's largest democracy have moved on since 2002.


IMAGES

(1) Original: IBN Live/Reuters

March 31, 2014

MADHYA PRADESH & LOK SABHA 2014


WILL MP HELP MODI BE THE NEXT PM



Considering its minuscule performance in South and the East, the BJP has to perform exceedingly well in the Hindi heartland for its 'Mission 272' to succeed. The saffron outfit's superlative performance in the state elections held in the later half of 2013 has further strengthened the already strong 'Modi wave'. One of the key states for the party is that of Madhya Pradesh. Having finished with nearly three fourths of the total seats, the saffronists are upbeat (Link). The incumbent CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan is extremely popular amongst the masses. Once seen as a potential PM nominee from the party, Chauhan has led the party to an unprecedented straight third term. The Congress slipped further, dropping over 10 seats to end with a disappointing tally of 58. You can see why the BJP is expected to paint the state orange. Of course, it is easier said than done. Remember, the party won the state elections in 2008 too by a massive margin. However, in the Lok Sabha polls held in the following summer, the Congress made a comeback of sorts, winning as many as 12 of the 29 parliamentary seats.

ISSUES

(1) The performance of the Chauhan regime: A relatively unknown face in state politics when he ascended the throne nearly nine years ago, CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan's regime has seen the implementation of several schemes that have helped in the development of the state. Under him, the road network has improved substantially. While the state generates more power now, the work on the linking of rivers has already started. Besides, populist schemes like providing TV sets and rice at Rs. 2 per kilogram have been huge hits. At the same time, welfare schemes including the Ladli Lakshmi Scheme, the Kanyadhan Yojna and the Janani Suraksha Yojna, all aimed at benefiting the women have been appreciated by the masses. While he has proved his administrative skills, another plus point for him is that he is seen as a moderate face by the minorities too.

(2) The failure of the Manmohan regime: While the Chauhan regime may have won a landslide victory in 2013 on the agenda of development, no such thing can be said about the UPA in its second innings. Besides, miserably failing to control price rise, several high ranking ministers in the Union Cabinet have been accused of being involved in multi-crore corruption scams. The anti-incumbency sentiment is strong. Thus while the BJP was able to retain power in Bhopal in spite of being in power for a decade by banking on the report card of their CM, it will be extremely difficult job for the Congress to replicate this in New Delhi.

(3) Modi vs Rahul: Madhya Pradesh is one of those states which sees a direct contest between the two national parties - BJP and the Congress. As such, it will be one state where the Narendra Modi versus Rahul Gandhi battle may have some impact on the way in which people vote. Both the Gujarat CM and the INC Vice-President campaigned heavily in the state on the eve of the assembly elections. Although the Opinion Polls may give Modi the upper hand, you cannot right the Gandhis off. Remember 2004?

CONTENDERS

(1) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): Though he may have lost out on the race to become the party's PM nominee to Narendra Modi, incumbent CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan remains the most popular political figure in the state, leading others by a massive margin. Winning a large state like Madhya Pradesh, that too, three times in a row is no mean task. The saffron camp is heavily relying on their CM's image as a pro-development and secular leader to get them the votes. In many parts of the state, Chauhan dominates the party's posters and advertisements, showing the kind of influence that he has on the cadre. There was some talk that party patriarch L K Advani was keen to contest the Lok Sabha polls from Bhopal. However, that did not materialize due to various reasons. Meanwhile, amongst the party's nominees from here are senior leader Sushma Swaraj (Vidisha), Yashodhara Raje Scindia (Gwalior) and state party president Narendra Singh Tomar (Morena).

(2) Congress: As if the loss in the assembly polls was not enough, the grand old party was humiliated when its official nominee from Bhind, former IAS officer Bhagirath Prasad crossed over to the saffron camp. The INC needs to draw inspiration from its performance in 2009 to gear up. However, one has to realize that on the eve of last General Elections, the UPA government was on a much stronger wicket. This time around though, the anti-incumbency against the Central regime is very strong all thanks to several corruption scams that have rocked the Singh government and its inability to resurrect the economy. The party has renominated two of its top Union Ministers - Kamal Nath (Chhindwara) and Jyothiraditya Scindia (Guna). Meanwhile, former Madhya Pradesh CM Digvijay Singh's brother Laxman Singh will face Sushma from Vidisha.

Others: The Aam Admi Party (AAP) will be making its debut here in 2014. It has given tickets to several leaders of the Narmada Bachao Andolan (NBA), former police officers social activists. The Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) which won a single seat in 2009 will be keen to retain Rewa. Other smaller contenders include the Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GPP), the Smamajwadi Party (SP), the JD(U) and the Left Front.

PAST PERFORMANCES

In 2003, the BJP under Hindutva icon Uma Bharati registered a famous win as they beat the Congress under Digvijay Singh. In the Lok Sabha 2004, when the nation voted the UPA to power, the state still remained loyal to the NDA. The following year though, Bharati was replaced, first by Babulal Gaur and then by her bete noire Shivraj Singh Chauhan. The incumbent CM has never looked back after that. Although, the saffron camp dropped nearly 30 seats in 2008 state polls, it still got a simple majority. The 2009 General Elections saw the INC make a come back of sorts as it managed to restrict the BJP to 16. Finally, Chauhan won a successive third term for his party in 2013.

Political Party
2013 SE2009 LE2008 SE2004 LE2003 SE
1
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
165
16
143
25
173
2
Congress (INC)
58
12
71
4
38
3
Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)
4
1
7
-
2
4
Others
3
-
9
-
17

MY PREDICTIONS

I expect the 2014 polls in Madhya Pradesh to be an action replay of the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress in the state is weak; to add to the woes is the strong anti-incumbency against the UPA regime. The INC will struggle to enter two digits. Meanwhile, the saffron camp will put on a brilliant show.

Political Party
Expected Seats
1
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
21-25
2
Congress
5-8
3
Others
0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) The Modi-Chauhan War: While the BJP may deny any rift between the Chief Ministers of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, there is certainly some friction between the two heavyweights. Advani's insistence on fighting the polls from Bhopal is seen by many as an effort on the part of the patriarch to endorse Chauha over Modi. As such, if the outfit wins 20 or more seats from the state, Chauhan will certainly yield a lot of influence in the Modi regime in the Centre and may use it to get a better package for his state.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)