DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part VII

THE BIG WINNERS AND LOSERS

It is but imperative that we start this post by lauding the efforts of the Chief Electoral Officer of Delhi Chandra Bhushan Kumar, his entire team and the security forces in making sure that the whole voting process went on smoothly. In spite of the fact that Delhites were voting for the third time in last 14 months, they came out in record numbers to exercise their democratic right. The voting percentage was a little over 67 much more than that seen during the Lok Sabha polls which shows that we Indians have still not lost faith in the political system.

With the AAP having swept the polls, winning a staggering 67 of the 70 seats, it is but natural that all of its top guns have won their respective constituencies. Leading the list of the big winners is the party chief Arvind Kejriwal who retained the prestigious New Delhi seat by a mrgin of over 31,000 votes beating Nupur Sharma of the BJP and Kiran Walia of the Congress. His close aide and former state cabinet minister Manish Sissodia too was successful from Patparganj where he beat his former colleague Vinod Kumar Binny who was fighting on a BJP ticket. Meanwhile, former ministers Somnath Bharati and Rakhi Bildan who were in the news for all the wrong reasons during the AAP's 49 day regime emerged victorious from Malviya Nagar and Mangol Puri respectively.

Other prominent winners from the AAP include former ministers - Satyendra Kumar Jain (Shakur Basti), Saurabh Bharadwaj (Greater Kailash) and Girish Soni (Madipur) and former Congress leader Alka Lamba (Chandini Chowk).

Considering that only three BJP candidates were able to tide over the AAP tsunami, they deserve to be in the list of the winners. These include Om Prakash Sharma (Vishwas Nagar), Vijendra Kumar (Rohini) and Jagdish Pradhan (Mustafabad).

The casualties in the saffron camp were many. Perhaps, the biggest amongst them was the party's CM candidate Kiran Bedi herself who lost from Krishna Nagar which is believed to be a BJP strong hold since it has been nurtured by former state party leader and Union Minister Dr. Harshavardhan. She was beaten by AAP candidate S K Bagga by a margin of over 2,400 votes. Another well known state leader Prof. Jagdish Mukki had to bite the dust from Janakpuri as he lost out to his rival Rajesh Rishi by over 25,00 votes. Meanwhile, former AAP leaders who had joined the BJP ahead of the polls including former Speaker M S Dhir (Jangapura) and Vinod Kumar Binny (Patparganj) too were beaten. Similarly, former Union Minister Krishna Tirath who had jumped to the saffron camp from the Congress lost from the Patel Nagar constituency. Also, former DU president Nupur Sharma who was pitted against AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal lost by over 30,000 votes.

For the Congress, its campaign chief Ajay Maken lost his deposit from Sardar Bazaar having been beaten by AAP's Som Dutt who polled over 67,000 votes. Like him, former Child and Women Welfare Minister Dr. Kiran Walia lost to the AAP chief having got just over 4,700 votes. Other bigger losers from the party include Muslim faces - Shoaib Iqbal (Matia Mahal) and Haroon Yusuf (Congress), President's daughter Sharmistha Mukherjee (Greater Kailash) and Dr. Yoganand Shastri (Malviya Nagar).

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part VI

THE RESULTS

Though the Opinion polls may have been unanimous in declaring the AAP as the clear winner in the Delhi elections 2015 after the votes were cast on February 7, the magnitude of their victory was grossly under-estimated. Nobody, not even the likes of Kejriwal or Yogendra Yadav would have anticipated that their party would bag over 95 percent of the seats in the state assembly. As Shiv Sena supremo Uddhav Thackeray put it, it seemed that the 'Modi wave' was swept aside by the 'tsunami' in favor of the Aam Admi Party. As early as December last year, many felt that the AAP would find it extremely difficult to get a decent tally, forget thoughts of going past the half way mark, especially after a series of political blunders that they had committed in the past year. The whitewash in the national capital in the Lok Sabha polls was hailed as the beginning of the end of the anti-corruption party. In what can be best described as a 'fairy tale', thousands of AAP volunteers ably led by Kejriwal & Co. worked day in and day out to capitalize on the errors made by the BJP to turn the tide in their favor by getting across their vision for Delhi to the masses.

Courtesy: HD Wallpapers wala

The AAP's phenomenal tally of 67 seats is special in many ways. There are very rare instances in multi-party democracies like ours wherein a single party manages to win such a large percentage of seats. The only other state where such a pattern has been observed in recent times was in Sikkim where the ruling SDF under CM Pawan Kumar Chamling won all 32 seats in the 2009 elections to the state assembly. Prior to that, the party had won 31 seats in 2004. Another important trend to notice is that Kejriwal's outfit won nearly 54 percent of the total votes; again, the way our election process is structured, this is not very common. In fact, 55 of the 67 winning candidates of the AAP won over 55 percent of the votes in their respective constituencies, a clear indication that they had won the confidence of the people across all parts of the city. Prominent winners from the party include Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, Somnath Bharati, Rakhi Bidlan and Alka Lamba.

Sr.	Political Party	Seats
1	Aam Admi Party (AAP)	67
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	3
3	Congress (INC)	0
4	Others	0

With this memorable win, the AAP has finally managed to stem the Modi juggernaut that had enjoyed unprecedented success in last eight months. The odds were heavily stacked against them. However, the relatively new outfit must be credited for the manner in which they ran their campaign ever since Kejriwal resigned from his post in February last year. With the BJP delaying the elections to the state assembly for reasons best known to them, the AAP got the time to re-group and formulate a strategy to counter the saffronists who were trying to cash in on PM Modi's popularity. Through Delhi Dialogue, the party managed to read the pulse of the voters while convincing them that they would not run away from power this time around. A strict screening process to select candidates and an effective social media campaign further helped their cause. Their 70 point agenda that included some populist measures helped them woo the lower and middle income groups away from the two national parties and helped the AAP register a historic win.

Courtesy: Desktop HD Wallpapers

For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the results of the Delhi polls have been their worst nightmare. Having bagged 31 seats in the 2013 state elections and won all seven seats in the parliamentary seats the following year, the saffron camp was reduced to just three seats. There is a serious need for introspection within the BJP as many political activists have pointed out, they seem to have handed an easy victory to the AAP on the platter. The delay in scheduling the polls seems to be the first mistake that the party made. As if it was not enough, the infighting within the party's state leadership as well as the move to parachute Kiran Bedi to led the campaign seem to have further contributed to their pathetic performance. In fact, the party seemed to have focused more on 'maligning' Kejriwal's image with PM Modi leading the pitch, rather than telling the people of Delhi what their plans are for the capital. The process of selecting candidates was delayed whereas the saffron camp did not even release a proper manifesto. All in all, the party seemed to have paid a heavy price for being arrogant and for running a 'negative' campaign in the polls. In what was a major setback, the party's CM candidate Kiran Bedi was beaten by AAP's S K Bagga from their stronghold of Krishna Nagar. The only silver lining was that its vote share as compared to the last state polls remained almost stagnant.

For the grand old party of Indian politics, the situation seems to be worsening. The Congress which had ruled the national capital for three straight terms could not even open its account. It managed to win just over 8 percent of the total votes where 62 of its 70 candidates even lost their deposits. Amongst them was its campaign chief Ajay Maken. It is imperative that the party's High Command takes some serious steps to arrest the decline in the fortunes of the INC.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part V

THE THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR

I am pretty sure that most of you will agree with me when I say that the elections to Delhi will be the most keenly fought electoral contest following the General polls 2014. The campaign was as bitter as it was intense. Unlike the other recently concluded state polls where the Congress put up a rather feeble resistance to the saffron juggernaut, the BJP seems to have found a worthy opponent in the AAP in the national capital. The AAP leadership as well as the thousands of volunteers and karya kartas working for Kejriwal's outfit deserve a round of applause for resurrecting the party from the shambles after the thumping that it got in May last year all thanks to morchas, bike rallies and nukkad nataks (street dramas) that they have undertaken in the last two months. Of course, the saffronists too made their work easier after a series of electoral blunders that saw them lose a lot of ground to their opponents as the polling date approached. In fact, opinion polls suggest that AAP may actually hold an edge over the BJP; meanwhile, the INC's situation continues to be pathetic. The impact that these polls will have will be huge and here are the points to watch out for as the EVMs are opened and the results are announced this Tuesday:

(1) The AAP's Battle For Survival: One can understand why the Delhi polls is so important for the Aam Admi Party (AAP) and its chief. After being demolished in the General polls and being wiped out of Delhi, Kejriwal & Co. have put all on the line. While many expected them to take a defensive line in wake of the May 2014 drubbing, the party cadre worked relentlessly to consolidate their substantial vote base amongst the low income workers and migrants who have traditional been Congress loyalists, besides luring a sizable chunk of traders away from the saffron camp. In spite of the fact that several of its former leaders have crossed over to the opposing camp, the AAP has fought the BJP tooth and nail using limited means and through unconventional and innovative methods, making sure that their vision of a corruption-free Delhi is put across to the electorate. While highlighting their performance during 49 day long government that the party had formed with the outside support of the Congress, Kejriwal has attacked the NDA regime at the Center for failing to do anything for the people of the capital in spite of being in power for the last seven months.

It is a 'do or die' scenario for the the former IRS officer and his outfit. A win would herald a second innings that would help it expand its support base beyond Delhi whereas a defeat could mean an abrupt end to AAP's political fortunes, making it one of the many parties that promised big things but could never deliver anything substantial. In politics, it is rare that a party gets an opportunity to make a comeback and it remains to be seen if Kejriwal and his outfit can grab this golden opportunity with both hands and make the most out of it, failing which, it could well sink into the oblivion.

(2) The End of Modi Mania? The BJP just had the best year in its three decade long history. Besides winning a clear majority on the floor of the Lok Sabha this May, it emerged victorious in Haryana and Jharkhand. In Maharashtra where it fought the polls without its ally - the Shiv Sena, the saffron outfit emerged as the single largest party, winning nearly twice as many seats as its friend turned foe turned friend. In Jammu Kashmir too, the party fared well, picking up 25 seats, all coming from the Hindu dominated Jammu region. It is clear that the persona of the PM Narendra Modi as a pro-development, no non-sense leader has largely been responsible for this wave of support to the BJP across most parts of the country, including those where the party has had minimal historical presence. As the Modi juggernaut has rolled, the BJP has been able to snatch state after state from the Congress and other weak regional satraps who seem to have been blown away.

However, the big question is whether the Kejriwal would be the man who could put a brake on the Modi bandwagon which till a month back looked unstoppable. Opinion polls suggest that the fight for the capital could be a photo finish between the two main contenders - the BJP and the AAP. The PM has addressed several rallies in Delhi where he tore into the Kejriwal's 'dismal' record while in office and asked him to join the Naxalites. On the other hand, the AAP chief's rallies too saw massive turnouts, much more than that of BJP's CM nominee Kiran Bedi. In fact, regional satraps including Mamta Bannerjee who are gearing up to fight the saffronists in their own backyards have put their weight behind the AAP, an indication of how important that results of Delhi 2015 could be on the Indian political landscape.

There has been a certain section in the media that believes that the Delhi polls are a referendum on Modi. In my opinion, such an analysis is a little far fledged. While the national capital is a cosmopolitan city, the voting patterns here, as in many of the other states and cities across the country cannot be extrapolated to the country as a whole. Of course, while a loss would be a blow to the PM, a victory will be the crowning glory in what has been a superb 14 month period for him and his party.

(3) Can 'Master Strategist' Amit Shah deliver yet again: Though the BJP fought the polls under the leadership of Narendra Modi, it was his Man Friday, Amit Shah was the real architect of the party's amazing tally in May last year. As the chief of the saffron outfit's campaign in the mega state of Uttar Pradesh, he ran an efficient campaign using Modi's persona, flaring up communal sentiments and striking deals with various socio-political organizations, thereby helping the BJP and its ally - the Apna Dal win 73 of the 80 parliamentary seats, a feat unparalleled in the country's electoral history. While the Gandhis and the Yadavs were reduced to their pocket boroughs, Mayawati's BSP was wiped off. As such, it did not come as a surprise when the former Gujarat Home Minister was made the national party president last year.

The move has certainly paid off. In Haryana, he decided to ditch the HJC and the saffron camp still managed to go past the half way mark at 45, forming its first government in the state's electoral history. In Jharkhand, he decided to play safe, forging an alliance with the Mahato's AJSU; the move paid off again with the coalition beating the Congress and the JMM. In the big state of Maharashtra, he took the risk of breaking ties with the Shiv Sena as the saffron allies failed to reach an agreeable seat sharing formula. As the results were announced, Maharashtra had its first BJP CM with members of the Sena joining his cabinet. Though his ambitious 'Mission 44+' did not exactly materialize in J&K, the BJP still win 25 seats, the most it had won ever. No wonder, he is considered to be the best electoral strategist in the country.

Unfortunately for him and his party, Shah's magic seems to be waning in Delhi this time around with the BJP committing one blunder after another. At the beginning of the campaign, the party appointed Satish Upadhyay as the head of its campaign instead of making Dr Harshavardhan its face in the state. With the AAP growing from strength to strength, the saffronists made Kejriwal's former colleague in the anti-corruption movement Kiran Bedi its CM candidate. Although the move was hailed by some as a master stroke, as days went by, it became clear that the former IPS officer failed to match the former Delhi CM's charisma at least in the political arena. In a desperate attempt to bolster the party's fortunes ahead of the polling day, the party president got in a host of bigwigs including the PM, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, Power Minister Piyush Goyal, Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and over 100 MPs to canvass for the party's nominees. Will this last ditch attempt pay off or will Delhi be a blot on Shah's rather envious report card so far.

(4) Kiran Bedi's political future: While there could be doubts whether the Delhi polls is a referendum on AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal or PM Narendra Modi, one thing is clear. The way the national capital votes will decide for sure, the fate of one politician - BJP's Kiran Bedi. The former tough cop who was with Anna Hazare in the anti-corruption movement is now in the saffron camp. In fact, her appointment as the BJP's CM candidate reportedly sparked infighting amongst the numerous camps that the Delhi unit of the party finds itself in. Though the AAP chief termed this as a move to shield Modi from the blame of the defeat, many thought that Bedi's clean image would compliment the wave in support of the BJP and help it go past the half way mark. Unfortunately, Bedi has not managed to 'set the stage on fire'. A defeat to the BJP would mean the end of her political ambitions though she is expected to easily win her constituency of Krishna Nagar, the stronghold of BJP leader Dr. Harshavardhan. A victory though would make her the CM of the capital.

(5) The fate of the Congress: The 'bad times' for the grand old party seems to never get over. As if the spate of electoral defeats over the last year were not enough, the INC seems to be headed to a third position finish in the Delhi state polls too. Clearly, the move to get in former Union Minister Ajay Maken has not worked the way the loyalists would have thought. The Opinion Polls indicate that the Congress may in fact perform worse than it did in December 2013 when it was reduced to just eight seats. This would be a massive blow to the party and its supporters. Following the rout in the General Polls last year, it seems that the party has not yet been able to re-invent itself or to put it in other words, the electorate has still not forgiven the party for the mistakes that it committed during its decade long regime at the Centre. Anything more than 8 would at least indicate that the Congress has improved its position somewhat whereas a tally less than that would raise serious questions over the party's future. In that case, the voices against Rahul Gandhi and his coterie of supporters will only grow stronger and many heavyweights might actually quit the 'sinking ship' like former minister Jayanti Natarajan did a few days ago.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part IV

A LOT IS AT THE STAKE FOR THE AAM ADMI PARTY

Though I have been a vivid follower of Indian politics over the last 12 years, I must confess that I have never seen the fortunes of any single political party swing from one end of the scale to the other in such a small time frame viz a viz the Aam Admi Party. Formed by former IPS officer Arvind Kejriwal and his coterie of confidantes following differences of opinion over the future of the anti-corruption movement with their mentor Anna Hazare, the outfit thrived in the national capital all thanks to the growing discontent over the policy paralysis that had become the hallmark of the then Manmohan Singh led UPA II regime. At a time when Modi mania had not yet set in, at least in most parts of the country, Kejriwal managed to captivate the minds of the voters in Delhi, chiefly the middle class by promising to eradicate corruption and reduce power tariffs.

In the 2013 state polls, the AAP on its debut, won a staggering 28 seats, just three seats less than the BJP; with the outside support of the Congress, Arvind was sworn in as the Chief Minister of Delhi, a move hailed by many including me back then, as the first step towards cleansing the entire political system in the country. In the next few days, as the funds started flowing into the party's account, the membership of the AAP too grew by leaps and bounds; several eminent people from many different streams left their 'thriving' professions to join the party as it began spreading its network beyond the borders of the capital. Once in power, Kejriwal did fulfill some of the promises he had made during the campaign like reducing the power tariffs. However, his 49 day reign was marred a host of controversies like Somanath Bharati's mid night raid and the fiasco surrounding his resignation after the Lokpal Bill failed to pass the test in the legislative assembly.

Though supporters of the AAP may not agree with me on this, at least in the open, Kejriwal's move of resigning from the post of the CM was a calculated one. Perhaps, he had hoped that the 'sacrifice' he had made in passing the anti-graft legislation would help him win the hearts of the people across the country. What the former IRS officer failed to realize was that by this time, BJP's PM nominee's talk of development had managed to strike a chord with the masses. The General Polls was a disaster from the AAP's perspective . Of the 400 odd seats that it contested, the party won just four seats even as a host of of its top leaders including Kejriwal himself had to bite the dust. In the next few days, the fortunes of the AAP declined with many observers dipping their pens in black ink and writing its obituaries. Voices of rebellion against the party chief and his coterie grew by the day even as many bigwigs resigned from the outfit.

The next state polls to the Delhi legislative assembly though is without doubt, the most important juncture in the AAP's political history; the results scheduled on February 10 could be the big 'make or break' moment for the Kejriwal led party. With the polls most likely to be a direct contest between the AAP and the BJP, the stakes are high for Arvind Kejriwal; he needs to put the bitter experiences of the past behind and re-affirm his hold over the party. Aware of this, the party decided against putting up candidates in the recently concluded state polls and concentrate only on the capital. The party's campaign is on full swing and the crowds turning out at Kejrwal's gathering indicate that he is not going to go down without a fight.

If the AAP does manage to go past the half way or for a fact even manages to finish as the single largest party in the next assembly, a very likely option, it would herald a second innings for the outfit as well as its chief. This scenario will give him the chance to govern the capital for a full term and implement the many promises he has made to the electorate in the past few months. Besides, this could be the model government that the outfit could showcase to the people across the country, thereby helping him build a strong support base outside Delhi. With Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand going to the polls in the next two years, Kejriwal and the AAP would be in a solid position to make in roads in these surrounding states provided he is in power in the capital. Moreover, all the questions being raised regarding Arvind's 'autocratic' style of functioning will be brushed aside. Moreover, the aura of invincibility surrounding the persona of the PM and the BJP president Amit Shah will be diminished to a large extent, allowing parties like the AAP and for that matter, even the Congress to make a political comeback of sorts.

A loss in the polls to the BJP though would mean a 'death knail' in the political career of the former Delhi CM. For long now, reports have indicated that a series of leaders in the party including Yogendra Yadav, Kumar Vishwas and Shanti Bhushan are miffed with Kejriwal. They believe that the AAP chief has strayed from the path of anti-corruption only to fulfill his personal agenda. In case, the AAP does lose out to the BJP, these voices will only gather momentum in the coming days; in that scenario, the former IRS officer will have to resign from the post of party president citing moral responsibility, failing which, another split in the party is imminent. For the party though, as the principal opposition to the BJP, it will still play a major role in Delhi politics for some years with or without Kejriwal at the helm of affairs. However, by the 2020, one must not be surprised if the battle for the capital becomes a two-sided affair between the saffron outfit and the grand old party, relegating the AAP to the fringes. Under these circumstances, the party's dream of forming a government at the Centre will be all but over.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part III

THREE REASONS WHY THE BJP MAY NOT WIN THE DELHI POLLS

Though the BJP emerged as the single largest party in the last state polls and painted the national capital in 'saffron' six months later, Modi & Co seem to be on shaky grounds a month before Delhi goes to the polls for the second time in 14 months. Although the party won the national elections, defended two states and won four more from the Congress in this period, the toughest challenge that the incumbent PM and his party face after the recent spate of victories will be going past the halfway mark in the Delhi legislative assembly. Truly, it will be the real test of the Modi mania post his stellar performance in the Lok Sabha polls. The following are the reasons why the saffronists are feeling jittery ahead of the polls:

(1) No direct fight with the Congress: Although Modi, Amit Shah and other BJP leaders must be credited for leading the party to a famous victory over arch rival - the Congress in the General Polls as well as a host of states over the last year, there is no doubt that the negativity surrounding the INC also played a key role in the saffron outfit's stellar performance. Especially in its second term, the UPA regime headed by Manmohan Singh became synonymous with 'corruption'.

Let us examine the performance of the BJP over the span of last 18 months. In December 2013, the saffronists were able to retain Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh in spite of being in power here for a decade; they won an impressive four-fifths majority in Rajasthan and emerged as the single largest party in Delhi. In the big polls, the BJP led NDA won over 330 seats even as the UPA failed to go past 60 seats. In Maharashtra, the party ended with a superb tally of 123 seats in spite of a public fallout with the Sena, more than the number of seats that they would generally contest in the western state if the coalition would have continued. Up north, history was created twice; first in Haryana where the BJP won a simple majority on its own, followed by Jharkhand where its alliance with the AJSU managed to scrape past the required mark. At the same time, the party recorded below par performances in the by-polls in Bihar and UP while it was trounced by the PDP in the race to be the largest party in Jammu Kashmir.

The bottom line is clear; in the recent past, the BJP has done well when it is pitted against the Congress whereas its performance is lackluster when the saffronists square up against strong regional players except in Jharkhand. In Delhi, the February elections are expected to be a straight fight between the BJP and the AAP. As such, unlike last time, the BJP does not have the advantage of banking on the 'anti-incumbency' against the Congress.

(2) The re-emergence of the AAP: The meteoric rise of the Aam Admi Party on the political scenario post their dream debut in Delhi 2013 was marred by a rather long list of electoral blunders - resigning from the government in the national capital, the decision to contest the General Elections et all. Post the defeat in the nation wide polls, the Kejriwal led outfit was lying low with many raising questions over its future. However, the elections to the Delhi legislative assembly is the best opportunity for the AAP to script a fairy tale comeback.

Kejriwal & Co. know that the results in the February polls could be the key to AAP's national ambitions. If it does well, the party could see itself expanding in other states in the next few years whereas a defeat could spell doom. This is why, Arvind Kejriwal and other leaders of the AAP are giving it all. Realizing that the fight is against the BJP, the party that was born out of Anna Hazare's anti-corruption crusade has come out all guns blazing and accused the Modi regime of renegading the promises it made during the poll campaign. Besides, the party continues to have strong voter base, especially amongst the poor and the migrants who look upon it as an alternative to the national parties who have lost their credibility to a large extent.

Moreover, the AAP though it was in power for only 49 days, is still praised by many for the initiatives taken by Kejriwal when he was in power. Also, the angry over his resignation amongst the people of Delhi also seems to have subsided to a large extent.

(3) Infighting: What could derail the Modi bandwagon in the capital is the reported infighting in the BJP which is believed to be split into several warring factions. This is perhaps the reason that the party has decided not to project any leader as its Chief Ministerial candidate if it is voted to power after warming the Opposition benches in the state legislature for over three straight terms. The factional feud is also affecting the ticket distribution; while most parties have already declared their nominees for most of the constituencies, the saffron outfit is yet to make its list official.

The BJP fought the 2013 polls under the leadership of Dr. Harshvardhan who is presently serving as a minister in the Union cabinet. He is unlikely to return to state politics even if the saffron outfit wins. This time around, the party's campaign committee is headed by former student leader Satish Upadhyay who has been with the RSS. Heavy weights like Vijay Goel, Jagdish Mukhi and Vijay Kumar Malhotra are said to be heading the various factions in the state unit of the party and fancying their chances for the top post. The joining of former Kejriwal aide Kiran Bedi has further added fuel to the fire with many feeling that she could be the surprise choice for the CM's chair. Even party spokesperson and MP Meenakshi Lekhi could be a consensus candidate to keep all factions happy.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part II

MAKEN TO THE RESCUE

Aware that it could be relegated to the third position for a second time in a row, the Congress has decided to shake up things by appointing Ajay Maken as the head of its electoral 'campaign' for the Delhi state polls, scheduled for February 2015. While it is pretty clear that the contest is going to be a direct fight between the BJP and the AAP, the INC's move to bring in the former Union minister is seen as an desperate attempt to get an image makeover ahead of the elections. After being decimated in the last state polls where it failed to go past the two digit mark in its former strong hold and following a sting of electoral defeats in 2014 including a disastrous General Elections, the grand old party is at its lowest point in its 120 year long chequered history. However, what bothered political observers and analysts the most was its sheer lack of conviction in doing any sort of introspection into the many issues that are plaguing the INC at present and taking certain 'tough' decisions to arrest its continued decline rather than offering mere lip service.

For a change though, the party surprised everyone by putting the former Sports Minister at the helm of affairs in the poll bound national capital; while this many not have any significant bearing on the result of the Delhi elections, it is certainly a step in the right direction. The fifty year old leader who shot to fame after winning the elections to the post of president of the Delhi University (DU) in 1983, won three consecutive terms in the state legislative assembly from 1993 to 2003 and also held various portfolios in the Sheila Dixit cabinet. In 2004, he contested the Union Polls and represented the prestigious New Delhi parliamentary constituency for two straight terms. Following the Congress' defeat in the 2013 state polls which it fought under the leadership of the then incumbent CM, there was a void in the party's state unit which was left licking its wounds having being reduced to just eight seats. What made the matters worse was the total wipe out in the parliamentary polls wherein some of its most popular faces - Kapil Sibal and Ajay Maken himself lost out to the saffron party that was riding high on the Modi wave. Aware of the fact that the INC is fast losing its remaining voter base in Delhi to the BJP and the AAP, this decision seems to make some sense. And here are the reasons. Maken, a loyal Congressman has been in politics for nearly three decades and brings in loads of experience of working both at the state and at the Centre. Secondly, he is amongst the handful of Congressmen to have a 'clean' public image. Thirdly, by projecting him as their leader, the INC has distanced itself from former Delhi CM Sheila Dixit who is seen as being ineffective in controlling rampant corruption prevalent during her 15 year term. It also helps the party tackle anti-incumbency. And most importantly, Maken is said to be close to the party Vice President Rahul Gandhi which is a one-requisite for occupying any high profile post in the party.

As I have already mentioned earlier, the impact that Maken may have on the results could be negligible. I mean, for the state that the Congress finds itself in, winning even 10 to 12 seats could be considered a 'phenomenal performance'. At the same time, in my opinion, this is the first time that the party seems to have taken a right step post the 2014 Lok Sabha debacle. The move to project Ajay as its face in the capital may not have any immediate results. Yet, it is an important step keeping the party's political future in mind. The Congress has lost the faith of the masses and the cadre morale is low following the series of electoral reverses in the past few months. As such, people like Maken who have literally emerged from the grass roots could help in rebuilding the grand old party. It will be in the interest of the INC to persist with the former minister irrespective of the tally that the party wins.

However, the big questions still remain unanswered. In spite of leading an extremely inactive and spineless campaign that saw the Congress register its worst ever results in the nation wide polls, Rahul Gandhi continues to be the No 2 within the party. Isn't it time to 'reprimand' the crown prince and his coterie for the mistakes that they committed? Similarly, is the first family ready to give a free hand to state leaders and not interfere in their functioning at the fear of losing their grip within the ranks? And most importantly, is the INC ready to reinvent its outdated and pro-minority ideology to remain relevant in the political landscape? And then, these are just a few questions that are glaring in the face of India's oldest political outfit. The decisions that it makes today will decide if the party could ever reclaim its numero uno position in Indian politics.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015 , click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part I

MODI v/s KEJRIWAL - ACTION SHIFTS FROM VARANASI TO DELHI

In April last year, AAP supremo and former CM of Delhi Arvind Kejriwal announced his candidature against BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi from the prestigious constituency of Varanasi along the banks of the River Ganga. Till then, it had been a fairy tale journey for the former IRS officer who was less than an year old in politics. Four months earlier, his newly launched outfit had managed to do the impossible; in the Delhi state polls, the Aam Admi Party (AAP) had a dream debut as it ended with a superlative tally of 28 seats, catapulting it amongst the most popular parties in the political arena. With 'corruption' occupying the central stage, the AAP's vision of a 'graft-free' India found popular support amongst the masses. In spite of falling short of a majority on its own, Kejriwal was sworn in as the Chief Minister of the capital after the Congress party which the former revenue officer had earlier referred to as the 'most corrupt political party' decided to give him outside support for the sake of keeping the 'communal' forces a.k.a the BJP at bay. The arrangement did not remain for long though; after a 49 day tenure largely marred by many unwanted controversies that further hit the outfit's credibility, Kejriwal resigned as he did not have the numbers to pass his pet - Lokpal Bill.

He did not lose heart though; encouraged by the success of his experiments in Delhi, Kejriwal chose to put all the drama behind and decided to go for the big prize. Though his infant party lacked organization and structure in most parts of the country, he decided to nominate candidates from over 400 parliamentary seats. And as if to drive home a point, he personally jumped into the fray against Gujarat CM Modi who was emerging as the clear front runner to the post of country's next PM. Unfortunately, Kejriwal's gamble failed. As the BJP painted the entire country in saffron, the former Delhi CM cut a sorry figure, with many raising questions over his political future.

In my opinion, the Aam Admi Party paid a heavy price for being 'over ambitious'. At a time when Narendra Modi was raising the hopes of a nation that was feeling let down by its incumbent regime through his agenda of 'inclusive development', Kejriwal's campaign of targeting politicians found relatively fewer takers. This was reflected in the results as AAP managed to win just four seats. It was routed in its stronghold of Delhi; most of its prominent leaders including the likes of Kumar Vishwas, Shazia Ilmi and Yogendra Yadav lost to their high profile opponents. And most importantly, the AAP chief himself was trounced by Modi by an impressive margin of over 3.37 lakh votes.

Though he won the face-ff against Kejriwal in Varanasi, the incumbent PM is certainly not the one to forgive and forget. As such, when he spoke at an election rally to kick start the saffron outfit's campaign for Delhi, he tore into the AAP chief's rather short-lived tenure as the state's CM. Though he did not take names, Modi advised the former IRS officer who had once called himself an 'anarchist' to join hands with the Naxals. In a bid to prevent the AAP from drawing political mileage from their move to cut electricity tariffs, the PM promised to raise power generation in the country to make sure it is available for all at cheaper rates. In his 38 minute speech, the PM's went on a complete offensive against Kejriwal aware that the battle for Delhi would be a direct contest between the BJP and the AAP.

Now, he may be down but the AAP leader is definitely not out. After all, even the idea to contest against Modi from Varanasi was a gutsy one. And in spite of a series of setbacks last year, Kejriwal refused to take the salvos fired by the PM lying down. Speaking to the media after the PM's election rally, he refuted the charges against him. Besides, he also accused the BJP government of failing to fulfill the promises it made to the people prior to the General Polls.

So, the stage is set for the second part of the Modi v/s Kejriwal saga. Will Modi make it 2-0 or will the AAP chief make him eve-steven? Lets wait and watch.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)