DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part II

MAKEN TO THE RESCUE

Aware that it could be relegated to the third position for a second time in a row, the Congress has decided to shake up things by appointing Ajay Maken as the head of its electoral 'campaign' for the Delhi state polls, scheduled for February 2015. While it is pretty clear that the contest is going to be a direct fight between the BJP and the AAP, the INC's move to bring in the former Union minister is seen as an desperate attempt to get an image makeover ahead of the elections. After being decimated in the last state polls where it failed to go past the two digit mark in its former strong hold and following a sting of electoral defeats in 2014 including a disastrous General Elections, the grand old party is at its lowest point in its 120 year long chequered history. However, what bothered political observers and analysts the most was its sheer lack of conviction in doing any sort of introspection into the many issues that are plaguing the INC at present and taking certain 'tough' decisions to arrest its continued decline rather than offering mere lip service.

For a change though, the party surprised everyone by putting the former Sports Minister at the helm of affairs in the poll bound national capital; while this many not have any significant bearing on the result of the Delhi elections, it is certainly a step in the right direction. The fifty year old leader who shot to fame after winning the elections to the post of president of the Delhi University (DU) in 1983, won three consecutive terms in the state legislative assembly from 1993 to 2003 and also held various portfolios in the Sheila Dixit cabinet. In 2004, he contested the Union Polls and represented the prestigious New Delhi parliamentary constituency for two straight terms. Following the Congress' defeat in the 2013 state polls which it fought under the leadership of the then incumbent CM, there was a void in the party's state unit which was left licking its wounds having being reduced to just eight seats. What made the matters worse was the total wipe out in the parliamentary polls wherein some of its most popular faces - Kapil Sibal and Ajay Maken himself lost out to the saffron party that was riding high on the Modi wave. Aware of the fact that the INC is fast losing its remaining voter base in Delhi to the BJP and the AAP, this decision seems to make some sense. And here are the reasons. Maken, a loyal Congressman has been in politics for nearly three decades and brings in loads of experience of working both at the state and at the Centre. Secondly, he is amongst the handful of Congressmen to have a 'clean' public image. Thirdly, by projecting him as their leader, the INC has distanced itself from former Delhi CM Sheila Dixit who is seen as being ineffective in controlling rampant corruption prevalent during her 15 year term. It also helps the party tackle anti-incumbency. And most importantly, Maken is said to be close to the party Vice President Rahul Gandhi which is a one-requisite for occupying any high profile post in the party.

As I have already mentioned earlier, the impact that Maken may have on the results could be negligible. I mean, for the state that the Congress finds itself in, winning even 10 to 12 seats could be considered a 'phenomenal performance'. At the same time, in my opinion, this is the first time that the party seems to have taken a right step post the 2014 Lok Sabha debacle. The move to project Ajay as its face in the capital may not have any immediate results. Yet, it is an important step keeping the party's political future in mind. The Congress has lost the faith of the masses and the cadre morale is low following the series of electoral reverses in the past few months. As such, people like Maken who have literally emerged from the grass roots could help in rebuilding the grand old party. It will be in the interest of the INC to persist with the former minister irrespective of the tally that the party wins.

However, the big questions still remain unanswered. In spite of leading an extremely inactive and spineless campaign that saw the Congress register its worst ever results in the nation wide polls, Rahul Gandhi continues to be the No 2 within the party. Isn't it time to 'reprimand' the crown prince and his coterie for the mistakes that they committed? Similarly, is the first family ready to give a free hand to state leaders and not interfere in their functioning at the fear of losing their grip within the ranks? And most importantly, is the INC ready to reinvent its outdated and pro-minority ideology to remain relevant in the political landscape? And then, these are just a few questions that are glaring in the face of India's oldest political outfit. The decisions that it makes today will decide if the party could ever reclaim its numero uno position in Indian politics.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015 , click here (Link)

DELHI & LOK SABHA 2014

WHO WILL STORM DELHI?

Now I do not think anybody will disagree when I say that the Delhi elections were arguably the most keenly contested amongst all polls in 2013. After 15 years of being in power, the capital voted out its longest serving CM Sheila Dixit as the INC crawled to a tally of eight. The BJP, in spite of doing exceedingly well in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan could not cross the half way mark on its own. And the phenomenal success of the AAP, fighting its maiden electoral battle was mesmerizing with many hailing it as the new beginning in Indian politics. With no party winning a majority, Arvind Kejriwal did a volte face, taking the support from the same INC which he had termed as 'corrupt' during the campaign. The short lived AAP government did deliver on some of its promises till the INC pulled the plug following differences over the Lokpal Bill. And many say that it was here that Kejri & Co. lost the plot. At a time when they had not established themselves in Delhi, the outfit decoded to go national. In fact, I would not be wrong to say that a certain section of AAP supporters have questioned the logic behind all this. The backdrop has been set just on the eve of the Union Elections. In fact, one of the biggest talking points this elections is after all the dharnas, the drama and the hung assembly, who will win the nation's capital in this triangular contest.

ISSUES

(1) Corruption: It was at Ramleela Maidan in the heart of Delhi that Anna Hazare and his team launched the hunger strike which ended capturing the conscience of the entire country. While the Gandhian may have had an ugly split with Kejriwal in the later months, the issue of corruption continues to be the biggest talking point of Lok Sabha 2014. The never ending list of scams that have rocked UPA II including 2G, Railgate, Coalgate and even the Delhi Common Wealth Games have tarnished the name of the Manmohan regime. The Congress is clearly on the backfoot. However, even BJP cannot claim to be hold the upper hand on this after accepting tainted leaders like B S Yeddyurappa and B Sriramalu back into the party fold.

(2) Bijli, Sadak aur Paani: One of the issues on which the AAP fought the last state elections was reduction of power tariffs and 24 hour water supply to the people of the city. In fact, after coming to power, the party stayed true to its word. Now, in the run up to the big polls, the party is set to talk about its achievements in its 49 day regime. Meanwhile, price rise and uncontrolled inflation have been the other hallmarks of the last Union government. The BJP has accused the incumbent regime of failing to bring relief to the common man.

(3) Women's Safety: Apart from corruption, if there is one more issue which has grabbed all the eyeballs in the last three years, it is the safety o the women across the country. it was the brutal gang rape and murder of the 23 year old 'Nirbhaya' in a moving bus in the capital which reminded us of how much more needs to be done in this regards. Former Delhi minister Somanth Bharati's mid night raid and alleged 'harassment' of some Nigerian women has hit his party's standing. The BJP and the AAP have fielded female candidates in some of the parliamentary seats to draw political mileage out of the situation.

(4) Social Fabric: Being the cosmopolitan city that it is, the politics here continues to be split along caste and ethnic lines. The capital attracts large number of migrants, most from Haryana, UP and Bihar. The Muslims form nearly 10 percent of the total population in the state. Similarly, the Sikhs too are a sizable minority. Which way these groups vote may end up affecting the results in quite a few constituencies.

CONTENDERS

(1) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): After winning 31 seats in the recently concluded state assembly polls, the saffron camp is hoping to reverse its disastrous defeat in 2009 where it drew a blank. The BJP is riding on the Modi wave as well as the bad performance of the Congress led UPA in its second term to reclaim its former 'citadel'. Buoyed by its good showing in 2013, the party knows that winning big here will not only help it in its 'Mission 272+' but also help crush the AAP. The party has fielded heavyweights - former CM nominee Dr. Harsh Vardhan (Chandni Chowk), Bhojpuri actor Manoj Tiwari (North East Delhi) and spokesperson Meenakshi Lekhi (New Delhi).

(2) Aam Admi Party (AAP): After a spectacular debut, probably the best in recent times, there are lots of expectations from Kejriwal's outfit. In fact, at the time when Arvind Kejriwal took oath as the CM of India's capital, many thought that the revolution that was AAP would soon spread across the country. Of course, there is endless debate regarding the the timing of Kejriwal's resignation. However, that is something we will discuss later. Meanwhile, Delhi is extremely crucial for the AAP, not only in Lok Sabha 2014 but also for its political future. Its nominees include former state minister Rakhi Birla (North-West Delhi), journalist Ashutosh (Chandi Chowk) and Gandhiji's grandson Raj Mohan (East Delhi).

(3) Congress: The grand old party may be down but is certainly not out. It may have been reduced to single digits but the Lok Sabha polls is a different story all together. Some of the party's biggest names come from here including a few Central ministers - Kapil Sibal (Chandi Chowk), Ajay Maken (New Delhi) and Krishan Tirath (North West Delhi). Besides, Sandeep Dixit - the son of former CM Sheila Dixit has been renominated from East Delhi.

PAST PERFORMANCES

The National Capital Territory of Delhi has been a swing state as far as politics is concerned, with one of the two major national parties sweeping it. Between 1996 and 1999, it was a BJP bastion with the saffron outfit increasing its tally by 1 each time. In 1999, as the NDA formed its government under Vajpayee, the capital region gave a big thumbs up to the saffronists. On the other hand, in the last two General Elections, the Congress has had the upper hand. In 2009, exactly ten year after that disastrous rout, the INC extracted sweet revenge from its rival winning the state 7-0.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Congress	7	6	-	1	2
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	-	1	7	6	5

MY PREDICTIONS

The fight is between the BJP and the AAP. However, the manner in which the Kejriwal-led government resigned in haste is clearly affecting his party's prospects in the General polls. The saffron camp, in my opinion holds the edge. The Congress is no where in the picture.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	3-5
2	Aam Admi Party (AAP)	1-3
3	Congress	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) Litmus Test for the AAP: The upcoming polls in many ways will determine the future of the Aam Admi Party. After that fairy tale debut, the party became the toast of ht nation till it resigned after failing to get consensus on the Jan Lokpal Bill. Many in the country think that the move was a blunder. Moreover, in a bid to generate political mileage out of this, the party decided to go national and has fielded candidates across the country. While it may not do too well in other states, Delhi is extremely crucial as it is where the party was born. If the party fails, then it will be a big blow and would adversely impact its performance in the state polls too.

(2) The State Polls: After the Congress withdrew its support to the AAP regime in February this year, it is expected that the polls to the state legislative polls will be held sometime this year. And there is no doubt that whosoever wins Delhi in the General Elections will naturally have an upper hand in the state elections too. An NDA win will make the BJP firm favorites; a third term of the UPA, though highly unlikely will give a big boost to the INC whereas AAP will better its tally if they can win the maximum parliamentary seats here.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

BABUS ON A TOUR

MLAs PLAN A FOREIGN TOUR AS DROUGHT HITS KARNATAKA

While the British government has tried to correct a mistake from the past by granting a royal pardon to the great Alan Turing (Link), it seems that the netas back home have not learnt their lessons. It was in 2012, that a group of MLAs from Karnataka were caught by the media 'holidaying' in Argentina while on a supposed 'study tour' to the South American country even as large parts of the state were reeling under drought. The plea by the then CM Jagdish Shettar to his colleagues in the Vidhan Sabha to refrain from the foreign visit fell on deaf ears as legislators spanning across political parties shamelessly enjoyed their vacation in Latin America, neglecting the duties towards the people who they had sworn to serve. Although it has been just over an year after that infamous incident came into the limelight, a period that witnessed a change of regime in Bengaluru, there has not been much change in the mindset of our politicians who think they can do whatever they want and then get away with it. Earlier this week, it was reported that a contingent of 18 MLAs were planning a junket to the same destination and the itinerary is said to include a tour of the Amazonian forests, shopping in Rio, watching samba and tango and the icing on the cake - a desert safari in Dubai on the way back. Considering that over 25 per cent of the talukas in the state are facing acute shortage of water, there has been an outrage over the trip. Though CM Siddaramiah has tried to wash his hands off the matter and the Opposition has asked its members to opt out, the audacity of our elected representatives in justifying the spending of tax payers hard earned money on such 'useless' outings is an insult to the people of the largest democracy in the world.

It is indeed deeply saddening that a country that produced stalwarts like Mahatma Gandhi, Subash Chandra Bose and Vinoba Bhave is today governed by crooks who seem to have forgotten all their responsibilities towards the electorate. While corruption has spread like cancer, we are fast becoming a morally deficient nation. The justification given by Congress MLA Mallikaiah Guttedar who also heads the Legislative Committee that planned this trip is shocking to say the least. While 'complaining' that MLAs get to go on a foreign tour only once unlike MPs who get this privilege several times in their tenure, Guttedar said that spending a few lakhs on this junket out of the state budget of 1.21 lakh crore is not a big deal. Speaking to reporters, he explained that the reason for the tour was to study the water falls system of Amazon and sporting activity.  He also said that he had learned a lot of things from his earlier tour to the US. And finally like all politicians, he believed that it was a conspiracy that such incidents are only reported from Karnataka whereas trips are undertaken by legislators in all other states. Wow!!! At a time when there is paucity of water both for people and cattle in the state, common sense tells us that it will be better if our babus can think of ideas to solve this problem. In fact, the same money can be used for fruitful purposes like compensating farmers whose crops have failed or for implementing measures like improving irrigation and promoting rain water harvesting. Desert safari can also be done in Thar; not only will this turn out to be cheaper, it will be a fillip to domestic tourism. And finally, our MLAs should concentrate on their constituencies and improve the lives of the people who voted them to power rather than undertaking tours to foreign nations.

I am tempted to view this entire episode against the backdrop of the coming to power of the Aam Admi Party (AAP) government in Delhi. Barely one year after he flouted a new outfit with the aim of cleansing the entire system, former IRS officer and Anna lieutenant Arvind Kejriwal beat three time Delhi CM Sheila Dixit by a margin of over 27,000 votes as the AAP bagged a whopping 28 seats in the recently concluded Delhi assembly elections. Though the BJP finished as the single largest party in the new legislature, its failure to go past the majority mark on its own in spite of the numerous scams that hit the incumbent government in the last few years is something that its leaders have to retrospect upon. The people of the national capital have made a clear choice and more importantly sent a strong message - they do not mind handling the reins of the government to first timers if they feel they are honest. And after coming to power, Kejriwal has started delivering almost immediately - doing away with red beacons for ministers and fulfilling the pre-poll promise of providing free water to private homes. Not only the AAP, voters do not mind re-electing their leaders who are known for good governance as it happened in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh some time back. The verdict of the final leg of the state elections should be a warning bell for petty MLAs like Guttedar & Co. If they believe that their actions will not affect their poll prospects then they are wrong. Today's voter is highly aware of the thing that happen around him and it is in their interest if our political parties and their members don't take them for granted. If they do so, then the people will teach them a lesson.

THE STATES THAT MATTER: NOV-DEC 2013

THE DRESS-REHEARSAL BEFORE THE GENERAL ELECTIONS

The State elections - November/December 2014

As a politically eventful year nears its end, five states will go to the polls in November-December 2013, most of these seeing a straight fight between the two major parties in the country - the Congress and the BJP. On the eve of the impending battle in 2014, the upcoming elections are an excellent opportunity for the ruling UPA (United Progressive Alliance) to asses the performance of the central government in the last decade of its rule or as its detractors say, its misrule. Though anti-incumbency is on a all time high and the ratings of the PM and his party are falling at a rather alarming rate, the INC is putting its 'best foot' forward with Vice President Rahul Gandhi talking on issues that affect the aam admi like his mother's deteriorating health, the assassination of his father and grand mother in spite of their 'great' contribution towards the country and the startling claim of ISI's role in instigating violence in Muzzaffarabad. I must say that Baba is quite courageous; to go on the big stage and talk 'nonsense' in front of thousands of people hit by poverty, price rise and unemployment is no mean feat.

For the principal Opposition - the BJP, their prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is on a blitzkrieg, addressing rallies in these states, asking people to support his outfit while personally targeting the Prime Minister. While conveniently forgetting his administrative failure during the 2002 Godhra riots - the primary reason for the fall of the Vajpayee regime way back in 2004, he is being portrayed by the right wing as a 'Super Hero' who will rid India of all the problems that plague her. In a country which traditionally draws its strength from cultural, religious, regional and linguistic diversity, a 'divisive' leader like NaMo is a complete misfit. Needless to say, in a democracy like where its only the numbers that count, who actually cares about morals after all? And the BJP is no exception. Thankfully for the people, none of the constituents of the much hyped Third Front have any significant presence here. Although the General elections may be just about seven months away, we also need to realize that state elections are to a large extent fought on local issues and a great performance here may not be easy to replicate at the Center in the days to come. Nonetheless, a good show will for sure, boost the morale in the victor's camp.

In Delhi, Sheila Dixit will lead the charge for the Congress as she battles for a forth consecutive term. Although there seems to be wide spread dissatisfaction about her government, she still continues to be quite popular amongst the masses, something that her party is hoping will work in their favor. In spite of her personal image, the furor over the Delhi Common Wealth Games corruption scandal, the outrage following the Nirbhaya rape case and rising prices will make it extremely difficult for the Congress to cross the half way mark of 35 on its own. In fact, for the INC, winning this poll on its own will be like climbing the Everest without any oxygen cylinders. Meanwhile, the BJP should be credited for completely messing up the situation which till recently was heavily tilted on its side. The indecisiveness over its leadership here, something that we generally associate with the INC, has stolen the thunder off its campaign. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) born out of Anna Hazare movement's Lokpal movement is emerging as a serious contender as it is raking up the issues that affect the people of the capital. With Arvind Kejriwal training its gun over the two major national parties, the newly launched outfit may severely damage the prospects of both Sheila Dixit and Harsh Vardhan.

In Madhya Pradesh, CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan is relying on his work in the last seven years at the helm of affairs to win a third straight term in Bhopal for the BJP. I wonder whether not taing any strict action against the sand mafia here is also one of his many 'developmental' schemes. While trends seem to indicate that his party is likely to reach the magic mark of 115 quite comfortably, even though it may end up losing about 20 seats, the saffron brigade cannot be complacent and drop its guard. Hope the party remembers the disaster of 2004 when its complacency allowed the Congress to script a famous win. MP and young Turk Jyothiraditya Scindia, with his clean image and connectivity with the youth, is overlooking the elections for the Congress, which like its nemesis in Delhi seems to not have learnt any lessons from bitter experiences in the earlier elections. In neighboring Chattisgarh too, the charisma and the development work of Raman Singh is working for the BJP, in spite of the fact that parallel government of the Maoists is controlling several parts of the state. Unfortunately for the Congress, it lost most of its top brass in the ghastly Darbha attack and ever since has become directionless. Ajit Jogi, the former CM is its only hope in giving some competition to the BJP.

If media reports are to be believed, Vasundhara Raje Scindia is all set to return as the Chief Minister of Rajasthan for a second term, five years after losing power to Congress' Ashok Gelhot. Raje has done her homework well this time around, mending differences with other leaders in the state as well as those in Delhi. For the state government, fighting anti-incumbency that seems to be looming large, will be rather difficult. However, writing off a veteran like Gelhot can be a costly mistake. The last state to go to the polls is Mizoram in the North east where the Congress is presently in power. CM Lal Thanawla will face a potent threat from the Mizo National Front led by extremist turned politician Zoramathanga. As the fight for the five states intensifies in the coming days, expect fireworks, numerous allegations and counter allegations, many defections and several mammoth rallies to woo the voters. While local issues may ultimately decide the winners, there is no doubt they will impact the big general elections scheduled in May 2014 in more ways than one.