2016: THE STAKES ARE HIGH

The year 2015 has been one to forget for the saffron outfit; after being routed in the Delhi state polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was further embarrassed in Bihar later in the year when the NDA was convincing beaten by the grand opposition led by bitter rival Nitish Kumar. Rising prices, the 'intolerance' debate and failure of the government to bring in the much anticipated reforms has meant that the aura of invincibility surrounding the BJP and the Prime Minister has been busted; the much hyped Modi wave seems to have vanished and Amit Shah's political acumen seems to have deserted him completely.

Probably, the only saving grace for the party is that the popularity of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to remain high. However, as the Delhi and Bihar polls have shown, it cannot solely depend on the PM to win them the elections in the states. Amongst the five states that are scheduled to go to the polls in 2016, Assam is one where the BJP will fancy its chances in the wake of rising anti-incumbency against the Tarun Gogoi government. It remains to be seen what strategy the party applies in Tamil Nadu and neighboring Pondicherry. Will it revive the NDA in Tamil region and fight the polls with Vijaykant's MDMK or abandon its front and ally with the Jayalalithaa? Moreover, it remains to be seen if the BJP can finally break its jinx and make its debut in Kerala. Also, the party will hope to improve its share in Bengal.

For the Congress, this year has been a mixed bag. The year started on a bad note with the grand old party being wiped out from the capital. However, the victory of the grand alliance of which the INC was a part of in Bihar did bring in a lot of cheers. More importantly, a big hurray for the party is that its Vice President Rahul Gandhi seems to be taking charge of the affairs of late. The party's strategy to stall Parliament has worked till now but then it must make sure that it does not over do it.

Looking forward to 2016, the Congress is still to regain its lost political pride which can only be restored by a famous win in the electoral arena. Probably, from the INC's perspective, the only state where it has a chance to register a big electoral win is Kerala where it is in power. Considering the present political conditions, it is unlikely that the party can win a fourth straight win in Assam in the wake of rebellion within its ranks. Allying with the DMK is the only option to do well in Tamil Nadu whereas Bengal will be a lost cause, unless the INC makes up with the TMC.

Compared to the two national parties, perhaps the upcoming year is the most important for the Left Front as two of the three states where it has a significant presence go to the polls. And to be frank, the situation does not seem to be particularly good. In its former bastion of Bengal, the TMC is all set to retain its hold in Kolkata thanks to the inability of the Communists to put up a spirited fight. The fight in Kerala seems to be a really tight one with the Congress going all out to keep the Left Front at bay.

Finally, the stakes are high for the regional players too. Jayalalithaa who was believed to be comfortably placed to win a consecutive term is now facing the heat, especially after the deluge in Chennai and Cuddalore. The only saving grace for her is that the DMK is ridden with internal strife and the taint surrounding the alleged involvement of some of its top leaders in the 2G scam is yet to go. In the east, Mamta Bannerjee though is in a much better position, thanks to an inefficient opposition and her goons.

AMMA RETURNS

AIADMK SUPREMO IS BACK WITH A BANG

Much to the chagrin of her enemies, AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa who was given a clean chit by the Karnataka High Court in the disproportionate asset case couple of weeks ago is back, 'officially' the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu for the fifth time. After being convicted in the case and given a jail sentence for four years in September 2014, the regional satrap who swept to power in the last state polls had stepped down and entrusted the responsibility of the state to here confidante O Paneerselvam. Since then, she had maintained a rather low profile, refusing to make public appearances and this meant that most public projects were struck up since the 'Iron Lady' was not there to inaugurate them. Although this may sound hilarious for most of us, people following Dravidian politics will certainly not be surprised. After all, politics down south is as dramatic as the local cinema and most of the successful Tamil politicians including Jaya have their roots in the film industry.

With the AIADMK chief back at the helm of affairs, the prospects of her party in the state elections scheduled for the next year have blossomed overnight. After successive victories, first in the 2011 polls and then in the 2014 General Elections, the Amma Express was on a roll. The many freebies and welfare schemes launched during her tenure were paying off. Its primary opposition in the state - the DMK was battling allegations of corruption and the fight within its first family was only intensifying with each passing day. Just when everything seemed to be going right for Jaya and her followers, the ruling of the Karnataka HC came as a massive jolt, threatening to cut short her political ambitions for the time being. However, much to her relief, the recent ruling, acquitting her and three others of all allegations of wrong-doing during her previous tenure have only enhanced the 'aura' of invincibility surrounding her. Speaking after the verdict she said that she has come out of the 'ordeal' like pure gold; in fact, many believed that Jaya could even consider snap polls, trying to en-cash on the sympathy wave following her acquittal.

From the perspective of the AIADMK, the decision is a big fillip before it kick starts its campaign for the 2016 polls. The return of Amma as the CM of Tamil Nadu is set to herald in a new set of reforms as well as public welfare scheme - read 'freebies', aimed at consolidating her voter base that has stood firmly with her for some time now. Many schemes like the Chennai Metro which has been completed but not yet made operational, apparently since Jaya was not there to inaugurate it are likely to be opened for the public. Though state politics may be her primary concern as of now, the AIADMK is expected to now play a more proactive role in the Lok Sabha too where it is the third largest party with 37 members. Besides, its 11 members in the Rajya Sabha too could be actively wooed, both by the government and the various opposing blocks considering that many of the Bills could be stuck up in this house.

While one witnessed scenes of ecstatic celebrations in the AIADMK camp, a wave of gloom has set upon the DMK. Though Karuna tried to take a 'principled' stand saying that the 'court of conscience' was above all other courts, it is clear that his party's attempt to use this issue to script a revival has gone down the drain. The numerous problems plaguing the DMK just seem to be piling one after another. As if successive defeats were not enough, the fight between Stalin and Azaghiri that led to the ouster of the latter from the party has severely weakened its ranks. The allegations of graft against some of its prominent leaders including Karuna's daughter Kanimozhi, his nephew Dayanidhi Maran and former Telecom Minister A Raja has tarnished the party's image to a large extent. In the present context, it will take more than a miracle for Karuna and the DMK to prevent Jaya from winning a straight second term.

Although it was BJP leader Subramanian Swamy who had filed the case against the Tamil Nadu CM nearly two decades ago, Jaya's acquittal is likely to bring cheers to the saffron outfit. It is a well known fact that the PM and Jaya share a good personal rapport. After the verdict, Modi is believed to have called up Amma and congratulated her. With the AIADMK chief coming out clean from all the allegations levied against her, it makes it much easier for the BJP to work with her party. Since the NDA lacks the numbers in the Upper House, the saffronists would now try to strike some sort of a working deal, if not a partnership between the two political parties to check mate their enemies.

For the Congress though, the case could give it the leverage it needs to stage a comeback down south or at least try to get back some of the space that it has conceded to others. The local party unit is in tatters and unless it manages to make up with its former ally - the DMK which is unlikely, it will find it extremely difficult to even cross the two digit mark in the next state polls. But then, as fate would have it, the Congress is all set to play a key role in the Jaya saga which is far from over. After all, it is in power in Karnataka and it is up to the Siddaramaiah government to file a review petition in the Supreme Court against the HC verdict. In that scenario, the Tamil Nadu CM could be in for some problems in the near future. More importantly, the move will perhaps be the first step in the renewal of ties between the INC and the DMK which has been left red-faced after dropping of the charges against Jayalalithaa. However, the move could boomerang too since this may translate into more closer ties between the BJP and the AIADMK which will be a win-win situation for both.

With the party being relegated to a 'pariah' and regional satraps largely ostracizing it, the Congress rarely gets a chance to play a decisive role in politics nowadays. However, in the Jaya disproportionate asset case, it is the INC that holds the cards. The party leaders need to evaluate all the angles and come up with an action plan that can help it turn the tide in its favor. Whatever the party's government in Karnataka does, the implications of that decision will not only impact Tamil politics but will resonate in the National Parliament.

TAMIL NADU & LOK SABHA 2014

CAN JAYA SINK THE DMK'S SUN?

From Bengal, we move to another state which is ruled by a lady politician - the southern state of Tamil Nadu. In 2011 state elections, the AIADMK led alliance swept the state, winning a staggering 201 of the 234 seats. While Amma's outfit walked away with 150 seats, her ally the DMDK (Link) finished as the second largest party as it ending with an impressive tally of 29 seats. The DMK was decimated. In fact when Vijaykanth decided against joining the Jaya government, he became the Leader of Opposition, relegating Karuna's party to the third spot. Three years down the line, things have changed to some extent. The AIADMK supremo is nurturing Prime Ministerial ambitions, hopeful that a tally of say about 30 odd seats will make the 'natural' leader of a Third Front. The DMK is no more a constituent of the UPA, having broken off from the INC led coalition following differences over the Lankan Tamil issue. The BJP on the other hand has stitched together a 'Half Rainbow' alliance in the state (Link) with several smaller Dravidian parties. The Congress though is left in the lurch; without any strong allies on its side, it seems to be headed towards a rout.

ISSUES

(1) Performance test of the Jaya government: It has been three years since the AIADMK registered a landslide victory in the state elections, relegating the DMK to the third spot. Having completed more than half of her tenure, the Tamil Nadu CM's performance will be under the scanner. The 'Amma Eateries' serving highly subsidized food has been a big hit across the state, run by women's self help groups. Other welfare measures include the 'Amma Marundagam ' (Medical Stores) and free laptops to students studying in standard XII and Polytechnic colleges. The law and order situation has improved as compared to that under the previous Karunanidhi regime. On the ground, the AIADMK is said to be the strongest political party, ahead of the others, especially with the DMK in disarray and the Congress fighting the polls alone.

(2) Anti-incumbency against the UPA: With corruption becoming a major issue across the nation, the Congress is clearly on the back foot. One of the biggest scams in the second tenure of the Congress led coalition government has been the 2G scam, perhaps running into thousands of crores. This is important because the prime accused in this fiasco has been the former Telecom Minister A Raja of the DMK. In fact, one of the beneficiary of this allegedly has been Karuna's daughter and Rajya Sabha MP Kanimozhi. Thus while the DMK did pull out of the UPA late last year, the stigma of 'corruption' has not been washed away, at least not yet. Even the performance of the last DMK regime was much below par. This is certainly going to further help the AIADMK and the NDA win votes.

(3) Lankan Tamil Issue: In the last days of the 2009 Lankan civil war as the island nation's army decimated the LTTE, it is alleged that severe atrocities were committed by men in uniform against the Tamils. Videos from various organizations around the world have given 'questionable' evidence of armymen killing the minorities in cold blood including Prabhakaran's young son and LTTE loyalist Isapriya. With the US planning to move a resolution against the Sri Lankan government in the UN, the DMK pulled out of the UPA alleging that the Congress was not ready to accept its suggestions. The whole issue has snowballed into a major poll issue in the state with both the Dravidian parties accusing the Centre of not doing anything to protect the Tamils in Jaffna. Of course, we also need to take into account that we cannot displease our southern neighbor which is also a strategic partner.

Another issue, perhaps linked to this is the drama over the release of the people convicted in the assassination of former PM Rajiv Gandhi. With the Supreme Court commuting the death sentence of three of the convicts to life, the Jaya government tried to secure brownie points by announcing that it would release all the seven people associated with the case. This was met with stiff opposition from the Congress who called this a betrayal. The SC later intervened and has stayed the move.

CONTENDERS

(1) All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK): After that spectacular victory in the last state polls, AIADMK supremo is buoyed and has started voicing her national ambitions as the calls for a Third Front are growing louder. This is reflected in the party manifesto too. However, the wily politician that she is, she 'forced' the Left in breaking ties with her outfit, aware that each seat in her kitty would make her more powerful nationally. The numerous welfare schemes that her government has launched, the anti-incumbency against the UPA and the dissidence within the DMK are working to Amma's advantage. In fact, the AIADMK may give tough competition to the likes of the TMC and the Left to emerge as the third largest player in the Parliament. The AIADMK's candidates include T G Venkatesh Babu (Chennai North), Dr J Jayavardhan (Chennai South), S R Vijayakumar (Chennai Central), P Senguttuvan (Vellore), V Panneerselvam (Salem), P Kumar (Trichy), R Gopalakrishnan (Madurai) and D John Thangam (Kannyakumari).

(2) Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA): Like so many constituents of the UPA, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) too is struggling, to say the least. Apart from the fact that it finished third in the state assembly, even behind Vijayakanth's DMDK, the power struggle within the Dravidian outfit's first family has led many to believe that the DMK would struggle to even cross the two digit mark. The stigma of the multi-crore 2G scam seem to have stuck to the party even after it left the UPA. With Karunanidhi expelling southern strong man Alagiri, the polls are a big test of the leadership for the 'crown prince' Stalin. Aware that the party's tally is set go southwards, the party has tied up with several smaller players like the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), the Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK), the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and the Puthiya Tamizhagam (PT) to consolidate anti-AIADMK votes. The regional player's candidates include Stalin loyalist R Girirajan (Chennai North), T K S Elangovan (Chennai South), A K S Vijayan (Nagapattinam), V Velusamy (Madurai) and former Union Ministers - S. Gandhi Selvan (Namakkal), T R Baalu (Thanjavur) and 2G tainted A Raja (Nilgiris).

(3) Congress: The grand old party is in a fix in the southern most state. Without any strong Dravidian ally on its side, the INC seems to be headed towards doomsday. The fact that several of its key leaders including Finance Minister P Chidambaram and Shipping Minister G K Vasan have refused to contest in 2014 is an indication of the big rout staring in the face of the party. Adding to its woes is the Union government's refusal to back a 'strong' US led resolution against Sri Lanka in the United Nations implicating it of genocide against the country's Tamil population during the last days of the Civil War in 2009. Some of the party's candidates here include Finance Minister's son Karti Chidamabaram (Sivaganga) and veteran leader Mani Shankar Aiyar (Mayiladuturai).

(4) National Democratic Alliance (NDA): Aware that the saffron outfit does not have any significance presence in Tamil country, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) cobbled together the 'Half Rainbow' alliance by bringing together several smaller Dravidian parties to give it a fighting chance, especially after the talks with Jaya failed to materialize. Leading the NDA here is film star Vijayakant of the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) which emerged as the second largest party in the assembly and polled 10 percent of the votes in the 2009 Lok Sabha. Besides, Ramadoss of the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and firebrand leader Vaiko of Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) too have pledged their support to Modi. Other smaller players in this coalition are the Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi (KMDK) which has some influence in the Kongu region and the Indiya Jananayaka Katchi (IJK). The BJP's PM nominee also met superstar Rajnikanth during his visit to Chennai.

PAST PERFORMANCE

In 1996, G K Moopanar split from the Congress over its decision to ally with the AIADMK and formed the Tamil Maanila Congres (Moopanar) - TMC(M). He joined hands with the DMK and the CPI(M) and the alliance - the United Front won all the 39 seats in the state. Two years down the line though, the results were dramatically different. The AIADMK, the PMK, the MDMK and Subramaniam Swamy's Janata Party joined the BJP-led NDA and won 30 seats. The DMK and the TMC(M) finished with a tally of 9. Elections were scheduled a year later as Jaya pulled the plug on the Vajpayee government during the crucial trust vote. The saffron camp now allied with the DMK, Ramados and Vaiko. The new look NDA finished as the largest coalition with 25 seats while Jaya and the Congress took 12 and 2 seats each. In 2004, Jaya was with the BJP whereas the DMK was now in the UPA along with the PMK and MDMK. This was one of the blunders that cost Vajpayee a second consecutive term. The results were a white wash in favor of the UPA. In the last General polls, the UPA continued to dominate with 27 seats whereas the AIADMK combine bagged 12 seats.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (AIADMK)	9	-	10	18	-
Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (DMK)	18	16	12	5	17
Congress	6	6	3	1	9
Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (MDMK)	1	4	4	3	-
Paattali Makkal Katchi (PMK)	-	5	5	4	-
Others	3	4	2	6	22

MY PREDICTIONS

The AIADMK is all set to cross the 20 seat mark and may even end up as the third largest party in the Parliament. Its rally will be dented to some extent by the DMK which is making a come back of sorts. The NDA will pick up a few seats whereas the Congress and others may, at max win up to 2 seats.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	All India Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (AIADMK)	21-25
2	Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (DMK+)	9-13
3	National Democratic Alliance (NDA)	3-6
4	Others (Congress/Left)	0-2

WATCH OUT

(1) Jaya - Potential PM candidate: Should the AIADMK win over 30 seats and there is a chance for a Federal Front to come to power, the party chief will be the strongest contender to become the PM of the nation. Even in the run up to the polls, Amma has on several occasions has given indications that she nurses national ambitions. The shrewd politician that she is, she even walked out of an alliance with the Left parties to maximize her individual tally. Even in case the Third Front may not come to power, Jaya with 30 odd MPs will be in a solid position for some hard bargaining with either the NDA or the UPA.

(2) The split in the DMK and the future of Alagiri: How much of an impact will the suspension of Alagiri have on the prospects of the DMK, especially in the southern districts where Karuna's estranged son has some kind of a clout. The war of succession that began as early as 1996 when Vaiko was shown the door seem to have been settled finally. With his last rival being shunted out and the Marans cut to size, the path is clear for the former Deputy CM Stalin to lead the party in the post Karuna era. Meanwhile, his elder sibling's next move will be very interesting. Though joining the AIADMK can be ruled out, he may join some other party like the BJP or Vaiko's MDMK or even float a new party. One more possibility is that in case the DMK is wiped out, Karuna may even mend fences with Alagiri to strengthen the party.

(3) Performances of the smaller party: In 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the DMDK polled 10 percent of the total votes though it did not pick any seats. In the next state legislative assembly elections, the party ended up as the second largest party. The point I wish to make is that we need to see how the performance of these smaller parties would be and if the coalition stitched together by the BJP would last post elections. I mean, the DMDK, the MDMK and the PMK and the BJP alliance may end up giving a tough fight to the two major Dravidian parties a tough fight. A wild idea, I know but still a possibility.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

WHAT IS IN A MANIFESTO?

VIAKO'S BIZZARE POLL PROMISES

Courtesy: India 272

Led by the firebrand Tamil leader V Gopalsamy alias Vaiko, the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) has never been able to break big in electoral politics in Tamil Nadu. Once seen by many as a potential challenger to the monopoly of the two main Dravidian parties in the state - the DMK and the AIADMK, the outfit has only tasted 'success', I mean, won a handful seats when it has allied with bigger players. Vaiko started his political journey with the DMK and was considered by many as the ideological successor to Karunanidhi. He was the undisputed No 2 in the party, boasting of a huge fan following of his own. However, after it became that Karuna had chosen his sons - M K Stalin and M K Alagiri to lead 'his' outfit, Vaiko left the DMK and floated his own party. Though a sizable number of the DMK cadre joined him, the outfit won no seats on its debut. As we can see from the below chart, Vaiko and his MDMK have been 'fringe' player in Tamil politics. Now, compare this to say, Vijaykanth's DMDK (Link) and you realize that in spite of entering politics in 2005, Captain has managed to attract the anti-DMK, anti-AIADMK votes. On the other hand, Vaiko has failed, rather failed miserably in this regards.

Its easy to see why, Vaiko has never fulfilled his 'true potential' despite being one of the most popular leader in the state. A fiery orator, he is arguably the most vociferous supporter of the banned LTTE in the country. He is said to have met chief Prabhakaran while on a visit to Jaffna and was also jailed under the stringent Prevention of Terrorism Act by Jayalalitha for this. Though I personally do not believe in the Sri Lankan Tamil 'cause' (I think that we have too many problems in our own country and we should think about them rather than interfering in the internal matters of our neighbors), one has to give credit to Vaiko for being firm on his views, especially in a state where netas can change their stance based on which way the wind is blowing. Like a crusader who keeps on fighting for what he believes in, the MDMK boss never loses any opportunity to hit out at the Lankan government. However, what he fails to realize, or perhaps he ignores is the fact that while they have solidarity for their brethren across the Palk Strait, the people of Tamil Nadu, like in all other states want their leaders to tackle their basic needs. If only, the Lankan Tamils could vote in India Vaiko would surely have occupied the top posts.

	Year	Election	Alliance	Seats Won
1	1996	State Elections	Left	0
2	1996	General Elections	-	0
3	1998	General Elections	AIADMK & BJP	3
4	1999	General Elections	DMK & BJP	4
5	2001	State Elections	-	0
6	2004	General Elections	DMK & Congress	4
7	2006	State Elections	AIADMK	6
8	2009	General Elections	Left	1
9	2011	State Elections	-	-

In the upcoming polls, Vaiko is a part of the BJP's grand alliance in Tamil Nadu (Link). Under the pre-poll agreement between the six parties that constitute this front, MDMK will contest seven seats. The coalition will be lead by Vijaykanth. Will this election see Vaiko making an impact? Actually, the MDMK has never won any seats when he has not allied either of the two big regional parties. Although, the NDA looks strong on paper, it remains to be seen if it can make an impact by winning 5 to 10 seats. At the same time you have to keep in mind that Vaiko is a strange politician. The fact that he did not contest the 2011 state elections after talks with Amma failed, proves that he is not power hungry. As such, unlike say the AGP (Link) or the INLD, it is not a do or die elections for him. Having dedicated 'his life to fight for the rights of the Lankan Tamils', electoral results won't impact him personally. However, keeping in mind, the future of his party, especially after he steps down, it needs a good tally to remain relevant.

For that to happen, Vaiko has to make the right kind of noise and strike a chord with the people. Sadly, one look at the MDMK's manifesto, you realize that he has not learnt from his past mistakes. He talks about Tamil pride, Tamils in Jaffna and in other parts of the world. However, regarding the things on the ground, the ones that matter to the electorate, he doesn't seem to have any opinion. I know many of the MDMK supporters will argue with me on this. They will say what has the BJP done on the issue of Ram Mandir which has been mentioned in its manifesto since its inception. This despite of being in power for 6 years. And the Congress has never been able to curb poverty even after ruling the nation for six decades. Moreover, unlike in the West, not many Indians read the manifesto before voting for a candidate. However, the point that I am trying to make is that after joining politics, you need to talk about the issues that concern the people whom you wish to represent. However, in the MDMK manifesto, I find rather 'trivial' subjects, some of which do not matter to anyone, except for Vaiko, I guess. I want to specifically pick up certain points mentioned in the document and show you how the MDMK seems to be losing the plot and may end up with no seats even in 2014.

There has always been a feeling amongst Southern Indians, particularly the Tamilians that politics in the country is dominated by the Hindi speaking people and to be frank, this is to some extent, is a valid argument. As such, Dravidian politicians have used the plank of 'federalism' to get even with the counterparts in the heartland. One of the key features in the manifesto of all Tamil parties has been increasing the powers of the state government and scrapping of the Concurrent List. However, Vaiko has other ideas too. To 'further strengthen the federal structure of the nation', the MDMK chief wants to rename the country as 'United States of India'. Now, can anyone please explain to me as to how adopting a new name will help make the states powerful? I agree that the USA is a model nation for any federal state; however, its success is certainly not because of its name. I hope Vaiko gets this point. Next, in a bid to strike an emotional chord with the electorate, he has asked for revoking the ban on the LTTE and pressurizing the Lankan government to hold a referendum in the Tamil dominated north. It is unfortunate that the MDMK supremo has not yet accepted the stark reality - the LTTE, a terrorist organization was responsible for the death of one of our Prime Ministers. Besides, it was responsible for the death of hundreds of Indian soldiers who were stationed in the island country as a part of the Peace Keeping force in the early 90s. There is no way that the people of the country can forgive these extremists for such incidents and there is no question, whatsoever of revoking the ban.

One can understand Vaiko's demand for a referendum; after all, he seems to care more about Lankan Tamils than people in his own state. However, the fact remains that India just cannot force Ceylon to take steps which can potential harm its territorial integrity. Sri Lanka is an important strategic partner for India and we cannot afford to anger them. While it may not be have much influence on the international stage, we need to realize that our relations with the islanders is extremely crucial. Moreover, if we end up 'hurting' the Lankans, they will gravitate towards the Chinese who are trying to increase their influence in the Indian Ocean region. Moreover, similar demands from nations like Pakistan to settle the long standing dispute of Kashmir will prove detrimental to our interests. As if these demand were not enough, the MDMK has called for Tamils to be appointed as ambassadors to countries with significant Tamil population. Well, the 70 year old will know that ambassadors are representative of the country and are expected to work towards improving bilateral talks and solve differences and not to protect that country's ethnic Tamil population. Some times I wonder whether leaders of smaller parties have 'small, narrow-minded outlook'. In a bid to cater to their own vote bank, they just fail to see the national picture.

There are certain points in the MDMK manifesto which are good - protecting Tamil fishermen, establishing a bench of the Supreme Court in the South and inter-linking of rivers. However, I expect a senior politician and in my opinion, the most honest Dravidian politician to be more thoughtful. It will help our country if even our regional players would see the big picture before making 'unnecessary noise'. That would go a long way in making India a true federal democracy.

SHATTERED

THE THIRD FRONT IS COLLAPSING EVEN BEFORE THE ELECTIONS

While I do not have any love either for the BJP or the Congress, I have special hatred reserved for the Third Front. The very thought of this Third Front - a lose federation of influential regional satraps with no common 'ideology' or 'vision', 'uniting' with the sole aim of grabbing power at the Centre in a bid to serve their own selfish political interests freaks me out. I mean, a federal government at New Delhi is the last thing that the country needs, especially after the mis-rule of the Manmohan Singh regime in its second term. Of course, this does not mean that I endorse either Modi or his outfit. Meanwhile, in a post that I had written barely a month back (Link), I had given five reasons as to why I think that the much hyped Third Front is doomed, if and when it comes to power. Little did I know that the many constituents of this coalition would quarrel and fall apart in just a matter of days. With elections about a month away, it seems that the federal experiment has flopped.

Ironically, the first cracks were visible when the regional parties came together to officially announce the alliance in the last days of February. A show of strength ended as a major embarrassment with two original members - the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) deciding to stay away. Considering that Navin Patnaik is one of the most strongest regional leader in the country, the absence of him or any other leader from his party at this crucial meeting is a major jolt to the Third Front. Moreover, the Orissa CM's remark that 'the front was still in its early days' has added salt to the wound. Forget the federal alliance, Patnaik's statement has led to speculations that he is ready to join the NDA or the UPA after the results. The AGP might not be on an extremely strong wicket at present, but its refusal to be a part of the Left led formation too has taken some sheen away from the Third Front.

The first jolt to the front came when the seat sharing talks between J Jayalalitha's AIADMK and the two Left parties broke down. The CPI and the CPM wanted three seats each whereas Amma was ready to concede just two seats. You can easily understand the Tamil Nadu CM's stand. Amma has been trying hard to project herself as a strong candidate for the job of the Prime Minister. The wily politician understands that with the DMK in tatters and Congress fighting the polls all alone, she has a golden opportunity to sweep the 39 seats in her state, plus Pondicherry. The more seats that she has with her, the better it is for her political ambitions post 2014 elections. With the talks reaching a deadlock, Jaya decided to go solo, dumping the Left in the bargain. A few days back, Bengal CM Mamata has made it clear that she will support Amma's candidature for the PM's post in case she can get the numbers. By fishing in troubled waters, Bannerjee is further trying alienate her arch rival - the Left.

The Third Front has to get its house in order soon, if it has to emerge as a strong alternative to the NDA and the UPA. Seat sharing talks between major players like the SP, the JD(U) and the Left have not yet begun. Considering the bitter taste that talks with the AIADMK has left, you can expect the Left to take its time. However, all is not over as yet. YSR Congress is said to have opened communication channels with the Communists. In all, it seems that the eternal dream of the federalist may not come true, at least in 2014. Thank God!

WHY THE THIRD FRONT IS A FAILURE?

FIVE REASONS WHY THE FEDERAL FRONT WILL NOT BE A SUCCESS

With seven regional parties joining hands with the Left Front earlier this week, it seems like the much hyped 'Third Front', a term which gains momentum months prior to General Elections and then fizzles out, is on the cards. The eleven constituents who have around 90 MPs in the Lok Sabha have formed a united block and have planned to oppose any bill brought in by the government since it could electorally benefit the Congress. In the coming days, it is expected that the leaders of the Front which at present includes the Janata Dal (United), the Samajawadi Party, the Biju Janata Dal, the Janata Dal (Secular), the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), the All India Anna Daravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Asom Gana Parishad, apart from the four parties of the Left Block will hold talks to finalize the seat sharing arrangements. A non-BJP, non-Congress government at the Centre has been the ultimate dream of the federalists. However, the big question is whether it is a viable option. The increase in the vote share of the regional outfits and the emergence of strong state satraps has made them extremely important in national politics. Meanwhile, the anti-incumbency is hurting the Congress whereas the polarization of votes could affect the BJP's prospects after it named Narendra Modi as its PM nominee. As such, some believe that 2014 could see witness a Federal Front heading the regime in New Delhi. In fact, in a bid to prevent the NDA from coming to power, the UPA may offer such an alliance consisting of regional players outside support. However, I believe that the Third Front is bound to fail. Firstly, it will need at least 120 plus seats to be a force to reckon with and considering the present situation of its constituents, it seems to be an uphill task. In fact even if it gets 120 seats and forms a minority government with the outside support of the Congress, it is unlikely to last over two years. And here are the five reasons why I think so...

(1) Present Situation: As I have mentioned earlier, the Third Front has to get over 120 seats to even dream of forming the next government. However, in the present situation, it is expected that most of the regional parties who met this week are going to drop seats. Nitish Kumar, the most vocal leader of the new formation has to battle anti-incumbency, a resurgent BJP and the Congress-RJD-LJP alliance this time around. Having walked out of the NDA over the leadership issue, the JD(U) is likely to end with a tally of 10-15 seats only. In neighboring Uttar Pradesh, the Muslims who have been a prominent vote bank of the Samajwadi Party may desert it following the inability of the Akhilesh government to prevent the Muzaffarnagar riots. Meanwhile, the BJP and the BSP are likely to spoil the prospects of Mulayum Singh Yadav in the upcoming polls. The Left Front could be heading towards its worst showing in many years. Having stormed the Left bastion of Bengal in 2011, Mamata Bannerjee is all set to take the lion's share of seats in the eastern state. In Kerala too, the LDF is said to be extremely weak. Down south, the Gowdas have never been able to increase their clout outside the Mandya region of Karnataka. Besides the father son duo of Deve Gowda and Kumarswamy, they do not have any strong leaders who can win them seats. The AGP and the JVM (P) can at max, win 10 and 3 seats in Assam and Jharkhand respectively. On the contrary, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK and Naven Patnaik's BJD are expected to put on a good show. Considering the above arguments, I think the Third Front will finish with a combined tally of 80 - 110 seats, falling short of the 120 mark. On the other hand, if the NDA or the UPA manage to cross the 200 mark on their own, some parties in the confederation may not be averse to joining either of them. Amma is known to be close to Modi whereas Patnaik and AGP were a part of the BJP led alliance earlier. Similarly, the SP and the JD(S) have bailed out the INC many times in the past in the Parliament.

(2) The ideology: To get votes, the Third Front will have to project an ideology to the people. This is exactly what the coalition lacks as of now. The only reason for these parties who come from diverse backgrounds, who cater to different vote banks and who have varied 'founding principles' to come together has been to the aim of forming a non-BJP, non-Congress regime in New Delhi. In fact, this has been the stand of many regional players since decades. Earlier, with many of these fighting the INC in their back ground, anti-Congressism was the glue that kept them together. Over the years, with the 'Secularism' debate dominating the political scene, there has been a slight change here with anti-BJP sentiments taking over, especially after the nomination of Modi as NDA's Prime Ministerial candidate. However, the point to note here is whether the masses will vote for the regional players only to keep the mainstream national parties at bay? Also, the Federal alliance has never spoken about its 'united' vision for the country, the economic policies that it plans to implement once in power and its views on the nation's foreign affairs, social issue and key reforms are unclear. Besides, another challenge for them is whether the individual parties will ever rise above regional lines. One important thing is that each of the member of this alliance has a vote bank to protect. With every outfit trying to safeguard its own political interests will the Front be ever able to deliver on vital issues. My answer to this question is a No. Probably, the biggest problem will come while presenting the annual budget as every leader will want to get the maximum funds for his or her state.

(3) An incomplete front: Another head ache for the federal alliance is that in several key states, it has virtually no presence. Of course, in the coming days I expect several smaller parties like the People's Party of Punjab, either the National Conference or People's Democratic Party in Jammu & Kashmir and some other outfits in the North-East to join this confederation. Still, this does not solve the issue. In Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Himachal and Uttarkhand, the coalition has no leader who can win them seats. In Andhra, where there are as many as three regional parties, namely the YSR Congress, the Telugu Desum Party and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, none of these have indicated their willingness to join hands with federal front. Same is the situation in Maharashtra. Though the ties between the NCP and the Congress have been strained, they continue to share power. On the other hand, the BJP has already brought together several parties in its Mahayuti. Another issue facing the new front is that most of these regional players, except for Naveen Patnaik has a strong traditional regional rival and getting them on board is an impossible task. With Mulayum in the group, there is no way that Mayawati is going to give her support to the coalition; DMK and the AIADMK do not see eye to eye; Nitish will never allow bete noire Lalu Yadav to be a member of the alliance where Mamata's TMC can never work with the Left parties. With Didi and Behenji out of the equation, there is no way that the Third Front will get the numbers to form the next government.

(4) Leadership: Lets suppose that the Third Front is all set to form the government, either on its own or with outside support of the Congress. The question staring at the alliance will be who will head the government? All this while, the Third Front members have tried to evade this issue by claiming that the decision on who will be their PM choice will be taken after the polls. However, with nearly half a dozen leaders harboring ambitions for the top job, selecting one person will be extremely difficult. In a party meeting, the AIADMK cadre have proposed Jayalalithaa's name for the post. Knowing how things function in the Dravidian parties, it is for sure that this announcement too has the matriarch's blessings. It is a well known fact that Mulayum Singh Yadav too wants to become the Prime Minister. In fact, when he asked his son Akhilesh to become the CM of Uttar Pradesh after the SP dislodged the BSP from power, it was being speculated that he was planning to move to the national scene. Bihar CM Nitish Kumar too is seen as a probable PM candidate. While he had denied any such ambitions in the past, his repeated calls for the formation of the Third Front and his excessive campaigning in the last few months tell a different story. Nitish's party colleague Sharad Yadav is the dark horse. His experience as the convener of the NDA may come in handy while keeping the different allies happy. And how can one forget the humble farmer H D Deve Gowda. A former PM, he like Sharad Yadav too can be a please-all candidate. However, what goes against him is that the JD(S) may fail to win over 5 seats. Probably, the best amongst the pack, at least in my opinion is Orissa CM Naveen Patnaik. Having governed his state fairly well for three consecutive terms, he has the experience to handle the PM's post.

(5) Bitter experiences of the past: They say 'History repeats itself'. The four federal governments that were formed in the 1990s are testimony to the fact that such an experiment can never be sustainable and will only result in political instability. In 1989, Vishwananth Pratap Singh led the first such government at the Centre which barely lasted for an year. The reason for the fall of this regime was that Chandra Shekar led faction broke away, a clear indication that such formations never work. Chandra Shekar who succeeded Singh fared even badly, staying in power only for 223 days after the Congress withdrew its support, accusing him of spying on their leader Rajiv Gandhi. The third experiment of a regional alliance was in 1996 when Deve Gowda headed the United Front government. Prior to the government formation, there were several uneasy meetings to decide the new PM. It is widely believed that Lalu Yadav prevented Mulayum from being the PM to make sure that he does not emerge as the biggest Yadav leader in the country. Less than an year later, his regime fell and I K Gujral occupied the highest executive post in the country. There is one important event that took place while Gujral was at the helm of affairs which is worth reading. It is relevant because such situations may arise in case of a Third Front government comes to power in 2014. As PM, Gujral tried his best to shield Lalu Yadav as the CBI was investigating the multi-crore Fodder scam. You see the regional parties have a narrow minded approach. They fail to see what is good for the country as a whole, rather focusing on their states. Such an approach is not ideal for leading a nation as diverse as ours. Though I firmly believe that smaller outfits are one of the greatest features of our democracy, I think that giving the reins of the Central government to them is like allowing a 15 year old drive a car. While the teenager may do a decent job, there are high chances that he may crash his vehicle. At the same time I do not say that the two national parties or rather the coalitions that they are heading - the UPA and the NDA are the best choice. However if I have to choose amongst the three 'Devils', I will definitely chose them any day over the Third Front.

TAMIL NADU'S MOST WANTED

DMDK'S VIJAYKANTH IS BEING WOOED BY BJP AND DMK

Courtesy: The Hindu

In the 1980s, actor Vijaykanth was considered amongst the top three superstars of the Tamil film industry along with Rajnikanth and Kamal Hassan. Now, three decades down the line, he is probably the most third most popular politician in the southern state, trailing the incumbent CM Jayalalitha and her predecessor Karunanidhi while leaving the likes of MDMK's Vaiko and PMK's Ambu Mani Ramadoss far behind. The journey has been remarkable; after delivering a rather long list of mediocre and below average cinematic performances throughout the early 2000s, 'Captain' as he is fondly called by fans and followers, took the big step into politics by forming the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) in 2005. Though he was the only candidate from his party to win the polls, he did make an impact with his party securing about 10 percent of the total votes. With a vow to dislodge the DMK from power, he entered into a pre-poll tie up with the AIADMK for the 2011 elections. Riding on the anti-incumbency wave, the alliance swept the polls with DMDK winning 29 of the 41 seats which it contested. After pushing the DMK to the third position and refusing to join the Jayalalitha cabinet, Vijaykanth became the Leader of the Opposition in the state assembly. Never in the history of Tamil Nadu had any party made such an impact in such little time since 1975 when another superstar, MGR romped to power after his public spat with Karunanidhi.

A careful analysis of his actions since 2010 indicates that Vijaykanth is aiming to do what many before him have tried to do but failed - be a third viable political option to the people of Tamil Nadu. In 2011 when there was a wave against the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (DMK) regime which was embodied in corruption and nepotism, he allied with the AIADMK. Banking on anti-incumbency, he increased his number from one to a whopping twenty-nine seats in the next polls. Speaking at a press conference following the victory, he took the credit for pushing Karunanidhi out of power, claiming that it would have been impossible for Jaya to win if it was not for him. After this phenomenal performance, he refused to be a part of the government, preferring instead to become the Leader of the Opposition. In a state which is known to vote out its ruling regime each time, Vijay's decision to stay out of the government seemed to be the right one. This position gives him enough media coverage whereas staying away from power negates any effect that anti-incumbency can have in 2016. Now the former actor is training his guns against the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (AIADMK) government to garner public support. In what is seen as a symbolic show of strength, his party even contested the Delhi elections last year where it got 2300 votes. In fact with his popularity at its peak, Vijaykanth has become Tamil country's most wanted. Both the BJP and the DMK are doing their best to forge an alliance with him. However, wooing him will not be so easy; the DMDK supremo has laid down his condition for coalition - that he will himself lead any front that his outfit will be a part of.  

Considering that he had taken a vow to dislodge the DMK from power, it may come as a surprise for many that Karunanidhi is so eager to align with the DMDK. After Alagiri hit out at Vijaykanth in an interview to a TV channel, Karuna made it clear that he would not even hesitate to sack his elder son in case the Madurai strongman does not stop his tirade against his prospective alliance partner. Considering the abysmal situation that the party finds itself in, allying with the DMDK seems to be the only option if it wants to open its account in the General polls. The alleged involvement of leaders like Kanimozhi and former Union Telecom minister A Raja in the multi-crore 2G spectrum scam led to bad press. At the same time, the failure of the UPA government at the Centre to reprimand Sri Lanka for allegedly committing atrocities against Tamils in the Jaffna region during the final days of the civil war added to the already strong anti-incumbency wave. It was under these circumstances that the DMK was relegated to the third position in the 2011 state elections. Trying to pin the blame on the Congress for the disastrous defeat, Karuna walked out off the UPA at the Centre. On the other hand, after coming to power, Amma has not done anything dramatically wrong so as to suggest that she will not do well in 2014. It is expected that under present conditions, the AIADMK is all set to sweep the Lok Sabha. In fact, the party cadre has even projected her as the Prime Ministerial candidate. The DMK supremo has no option with him. With the party health further deteriorating following differences between his sons Alagiri and Stalin, joining hands with Vijaykanth might help the DMK electorally. In a state known for vindictive politics, Karunanidhi seems to be ready to forget all names that Captain had called him in 2011, just for political gains. As they say, there are no permanent friends or enemies in politics. The problem for the DMK strong man is that some sections within the DMDK are against allying with him. They believe that the partnership will only harm the party's prospects, adversely affecting its performance in 2016.

Apart from the DMK, another party that is trying to be cozy with the DMDK is the BJP. A marginal player in Tamil Nadu for many years, the saffron outfit is hoping that the Modi wave in the Hindi heartland will help it do well even in the southern states where it does not have any significant presence. The massive crowds witnessed at the Gujarat CM's rally in Trichy is an indication that the BJP is all set to see a surge in its support base in this part of the country. Dr Subramanyam Swamy's entry into the party will help it gain Brahmin votes. However, the party is not taking any chances and planning a grand alliance of smaller players including the MDMK, PMK and DMDK to fight the DMK and the AIADMK. Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (MDMK) chief Vaiko expressed his desire to side with the saffron party ahead of the 2014 polls. His tough stance on the emotive issue of Lankan Tamils will help garner votes. The Paattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) which has a strong presence in the northern parts of the state, especially amongst the Vaniyar community, may play a spoil sport here. Though party leader Ramadoss is keen on a tie up with the BJP, he has opposed the inclusion of the DMDK in the front since both have similar political interests in northern Tamil Nadu. While the national party is hopeful that both the Dravidian parties will join hands with it, differences over seat sharing could jeopardize campaigning. It was earlier reported that even the Congress was keen on a tie-up with Captain with Rahul even wishing Captain on his 61^st birthday. Considering the anti-UPA wave in the nation and its indecisiveness over the Lankan issue, it seems that the veteran actor has ruled out this possibility for the time being.

The 2014 General polls will turn out to be extremely crucial for Vijaykanth. After its superb performance in 2011, it will be interesting to see if the DMDK can sustain the momentum which was punctured to some extent after several of its MLAs voted for AIADMK candidate in the Rajya Sabha elections, defying the party whip. A good show in the Lok Sabha polls of 2014 and a cabinet berth for some of his MPs at the Centre will help him increase his influence across the state. In case the manages to even touch a figure of 5 seats, he will move closer to his dream of being the third alternative in Tamil politics. On the other hand, you can expect few more of its MLAs to switch loyalties in case he draws a blank - a scenario where he will be back to square one. There is a feeling amongst many that it will be hard for the party to emulate its performance in 2011. They say that his alliance with AIADMK and the anti-DMK vote helped him win 20 odd seats. His inability to keep his flock together and his 'haughty' personality may further damage his credentials. Against this backdrop, the decision of allying either with the DMK or the BJP will not be an easy and will have a tremendous bearing on the future of the DMDK. Vijaykanth has made it clear that a decision in this regards will be made on February 2 at the party's state meet in Ulundurpet. Till then, all those wooing him have to wait and watch.

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: The Hindu
Original: DMDK alliance decision on February 2 (Link)