MADHYA PRADESH & LOK SABHA 2014

WILL MP HELP MODI BE THE NEXT PM

Considering its minuscule performance in South and the East, the BJP has to perform exceedingly well in the Hindi heartland for its 'Mission 272' to succeed. The saffron outfit's superlative performance in the state elections held in the later half of 2013 has further strengthened the already strong 'Modi wave'. One of the key states for the party is that of Madhya Pradesh. Having finished with nearly three fourths of the total seats, the saffronists are upbeat (Link). The incumbent CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan is extremely popular amongst the masses. Once seen as a potential PM nominee from the party, Chauhan has led the party to an unprecedented straight third term. The Congress slipped further, dropping over 10 seats to end with a disappointing tally of 58. You can see why the BJP is expected to paint the state orange. Of course, it is easier said than done. Remember, the party won the state elections in 2008 too by a massive margin. However, in the Lok Sabha polls held in the following summer, the Congress made a comeback of sorts, winning as many as 12 of the 29 parliamentary seats.

ISSUES

(1) The performance of the Chauhan regime: A relatively unknown face in state politics when he ascended the throne nearly nine years ago, CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan's regime has seen the implementation of several schemes that have helped in the development of the state. Under him, the road network has improved substantially. While the state generates more power now, the work on the linking of rivers has already started. Besides, populist schemes like providing TV sets and rice at Rs. 2 per kilogram have been huge hits. At the same time, welfare schemes including the Ladli Lakshmi Scheme, the Kanyadhan Yojna and the Janani Suraksha Yojna, all aimed at benefiting the women have been appreciated by the masses. While he has proved his administrative skills, another plus point for him is that he is seen as a moderate face by the minorities too.

(2) The failure of the Manmohan regime: While the Chauhan regime may have won a landslide victory in 2013 on the agenda of development, no such thing can be said about the UPA in its second innings. Besides, miserably failing to control price rise, several high ranking ministers in the Union Cabinet have been accused of being involved in multi-crore corruption scams. The anti-incumbency sentiment is strong. Thus while the BJP was able to retain power in Bhopal in spite of being in power for a decade by banking on the report card of their CM, it will be extremely difficult job for the Congress to replicate this in New Delhi.

(3) Modi vs Rahul: Madhya Pradesh is one of those states which sees a direct contest between the two national parties - BJP and the Congress. As such, it will be one state where the Narendra Modi versus Rahul Gandhi battle may have some impact on the way in which people vote. Both the Gujarat CM and the INC Vice-President campaigned heavily in the state on the eve of the assembly elections. Although the Opinion Polls may give Modi the upper hand, you cannot right the Gandhis off. Remember 2004?

CONTENDERS

(1) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): Though he may have lost out on the race to become the party's PM nominee to Narendra Modi, incumbent CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan remains the most popular political figure in the state, leading others by a massive margin. Winning a large state like Madhya Pradesh, that too, three times in a row is no mean task. The saffron camp is heavily relying on their CM's image as a pro-development and secular leader to get them the votes. In many parts of the state, Chauhan dominates the party's posters and advertisements, showing the kind of influence that he has on the cadre. There was some talk that party patriarch L K Advani was keen to contest the Lok Sabha polls from Bhopal. However, that did not materialize due to various reasons. Meanwhile, amongst the party's nominees from here are senior leader Sushma Swaraj (Vidisha), Yashodhara Raje Scindia (Gwalior) and state party president Narendra Singh Tomar (Morena).

(2) Congress: As if the loss in the assembly polls was not enough, the grand old party was humiliated when its official nominee from Bhind, former IAS officer Bhagirath Prasad crossed over to the saffron camp. The INC needs to draw inspiration from its performance in 2009 to gear up. However, one has to realize that on the eve of last General Elections, the UPA government was on a much stronger wicket. This time around though, the anti-incumbency against the Central regime is very strong all thanks to several corruption scams that have rocked the Singh government and its inability to resurrect the economy. The party has renominated two of its top Union Ministers - Kamal Nath (Chhindwara) and Jyothiraditya Scindia (Guna). Meanwhile, former Madhya Pradesh CM Digvijay Singh's brother Laxman Singh will face Sushma from Vidisha.

Others: The Aam Admi Party (AAP) will be making its debut here in 2014. It has given tickets to several leaders of the Narmada Bachao Andolan (NBA), former police officers social activists. The Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) which won a single seat in 2009 will be keen to retain Rewa. Other smaller contenders include the Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GPP), the Smamajwadi Party (SP), the JD(U) and the Left Front.

PAST PERFORMANCES

In 2003, the BJP under Hindutva icon Uma Bharati registered a famous win as they beat the Congress under Digvijay Singh. In the Lok Sabha 2004, when the nation voted the UPA to power, the state still remained loyal to the NDA. The following year though, Bharati was replaced, first by Babulal Gaur and then by her bete noire Shivraj Singh Chauhan. The incumbent CM has never looked back after that. Although, the saffron camp dropped nearly 30 seats in 2008 state polls, it still got a simple majority. The 2009 General Elections saw the INC make a come back of sorts as it managed to restrict the BJP to 16. Finally, Chauhan won a successive third term for his party in 2013.

	Political Party	2013 SE	2009 LE	2008 SE	2004 LE	2003 SE
1	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	165	16	143	25	173
2	Congress (INC)	58	12	71	4	38
3	Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	4	1	7	-	2
4	Others	3	-	9	-	17

MY PREDICTIONS

I expect the 2014 polls in Madhya Pradesh to be an action replay of the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress in the state is weak; to add to the woes is the strong anti-incumbency against the UPA regime. The INC will struggle to enter two digits. Meanwhile, the saffron camp will put on a brilliant show.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	21-25
2	Congress	5-8
3	Others	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) The Modi-Chauhan War: While the BJP may deny any rift between the Chief Ministers of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, there is certainly some friction between the two heavyweights. Advani's insistence on fighting the polls from Bhopal is seen by many as an effort on the part of the patriarch to endorse Chauha over Modi. As such, if the outfit wins 20 or more seats from the state, Chauhan will certainly yield a lot of influence in the Modi regime in the Centre and may use it to get a better package for his state.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

THE REBELS OF THE SAFFRON BRIGADE

THE FIVE FORMER BJP CMs WHO QUIT THE PARTY

Last week, former Karnataka CM and Shimoga strongman B S Yeddyurappa rejoined the BJP (Link), an year after he had joined the Karnataka Janata Party (KJP) prior to the 2013 state elections. In fact, after the drubbing that it received in the polls and having been relegated to the third spot, the saffron outfit was left with no leader with the ability to garner votes. At the same time considering the lack luster debut that Yeddy's party had, there were doubts raised over his political future and clear question marks on his hold over the Lingayats. As such, the coming together of Yeddy and his former party is seen as a win-win situation for both. Like BSY, here's a look at five former BJP CMs who had or have quit the part at some point of time.

Madanlal Khurana: Khurana along with Vijay Kumar Malhotra and Kedarnath Sahani was one of the founding members of the BJP in the national capital. Having been the President of the ABVP, he rose through the ranks from he grass roots to become the Chief Minister of Delhi in 1993. However, three years later he was replaced by Jat leader Saheb Singh Verma after his name figured in the hawala scam. In 2003, he was named as the party's CM candidate by the then party President Venkaiah Naidu. In the last leg of his political career, he won the battle as he bagged the Moti Nagar constituency while losing the war - the BJP won 20 seats whereas the INC increased its tally to 47. The former Union minister was later made the Governor of Rajasthan. He was expelled for the first time from the party in 2005 after he lashed out at L K Advani for his comments on the Kandahar hijacking. Brought back two months later after he expressed regret over his earlier remarks. In 2007, he was suspended yet again; this time for sharing stage with Uma Bharati who had formed the Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party (BJS) after being shown the door from the saffron outfit. After his negotiations to rejoin the BJP failed, he formally joined the BJS. In April 2008 though, he came back to the party after disagreements with Bharati. While Khurana senior has retired from active politics today, his sons Vimal and Harish are members of the party in Delhi. After they were denied ticket in the 2013 polls, is has been speculated that it may well be the end of the Khurana dynasty.

Keshubahi Patel: Long before Narendra Modi, Keshubhai was the face of the party in Gujarat. After severing as a minister in various state cabinets over the years, he became the CM for the first time in 1995. However his tenure was short lived; Shankersinh Vaghela split the BJP and formed the government with the support of the Congress. In 1999, he led the saffron party to a spectacular victory in the state and was made the Chief Minister for the second time. In 2001, he came under criticism for mismanagement of relief work post the Bhuj earthquake, besides the allegations of corruption and abuse of power. Finally, he was asked to step down, being replaced by Narendra Modi and the rest, as they say is history. In 2002, he was elected to Rajya Sabha from his home state. His first sign of dissidence came in 2007 when he openly targeted Modi during campaigning, asking his community to vote for a change. As the BJP romped home to power, his stature further declined. In 2012 though, he went a step further launching the Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP). Days before the elections, it was believed that the veteran would hit Modi hard and damage his prospects in many places. Much to his displeasure, the Modi wave was unstoppable. Keshubhai was one of the two GPP candidates who won. After his victory, the Hindutva icon extended an olive branch to the GPP chief and went to take his blessings personally. It may not be surprising that Patel rejoins the BJP in the days to come.

Kalyan Singh: One of the most controversial CMs in the party's history, Singh was at the helm of affairs in Uttar Pradesh during the infamous Babri Masjid demolition in December 1991. Following the incident, he resigned and the BJP government in the state was dismissed. In September 1997, he become the CM for the second time and continued for nearly two years. In 1999, he left the BJP to form the Rashtriya Kranti Party (RKP), accusing the then PM Vajpayee of orchestrating a revolt against him. In the 2002, he allied with the Samajwadi Party and won 4 seats. On the eve of the 204 Lok Sabha, he was back into the BJP. It was believed that his entry would help the saffron outfit do well here. While he won the Etah seat, the BJP's performance was pathetic, finishing with a tally of 10. In 2007, he led the party in the state polls and his below average performance pushed him to the sidelines. In 2009, he had a second fallout with the BJP. He joined hands with Mulayum and campaigned for him in 2009. The move backfired for Yadav as the Muslims who associate the Lodh leader with the Babri demolition, voted for the Congress. The SP chief publicly accepted that allying with Kalyan was a mistake, much to the embarrassment of the former CM. Singh launched another start-up - the Jan Krani Party (JS) which was another disaster, . Finally, he has rejoined the BJP and is working hard to make a mark for his son Raj Vir in state politics.

Babulal Marandi: A former primary teacher with RSS background, Marandi came into prominence in 1996 when he came close to defeating Shibu Soren from the Dumka MP seat. In the next national polls though, the Santhal leader did take revenge by beating the JMM supremo as the BJP won 12 out of the 14 seats from the Jharkhand region of the then undivided state of Bihar. A minister in the Vajpayee cabinet, he served as the first Chief Minister of the newly formed state after its inception in 2000. At the height of his political career, there was a section in the party that believed that he was getting larger than it and had to be cut to size. As such, he was replaced by Arjun Munda in 2003. In 2004, he was the only BJP MP to win from the state; in fact even Yashwant Singh was unable to retain his seat. After the debacle in 2004, he was open in his criticism of the functioning of the state government. Things reached a tipping point in 2006 when he quit the saffron party to form the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM - P). He won from Giridh in 2006 by-polls and later in 2009 too. Marandi is fast emerging as one of the most important players in the state; with 11 seats, the JVM-P is the third largest party in the legislative assembly behind the BJP and JMM. Earlier there were reports that Modi was trying hard to woo the Santhal leader with a clean public image to rejoin the party. However, he has made it clear that he will not take any such move in the near future.

Uma Bharati: Raised by Vijay Raje Scindia, Uma was an important member of the Ayodhya movement. She entered politics in her twenties and handled various portfolios in the NDA government. The Hindutva poster girl was on the pinnacle of her political life when she led the party to a fabulous victory in the key state of Madhya Pradesh in 2003 wining a whopping three-fourths majority. The sanyasin was made the Chief Minister but had to resign just an year into office after an arrest warrant was issued against her in the Hubli riot case. In November 2004, she hit out at Advani in front of the media during a party function and was issued a show cause notice. However, she was later let off after the intervention of the RSS. In course of time, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, her bete noire in MP was put on the CM's chair. This further infuriated here. In 2006 she launched the Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party (BJS) and contested elections in several states. However, her performance was average; in MP she could only get 4 seats. In 2010, she was re-inducted into the saffron party and two years later named the face of the UP campaign. Again, her magic failed to woo the voters here. Today, she is the Vice President of the BJP.

SHIV-RAJ IN MP? - PART II

MADHYA PRADESH 2013: CAN THE BJP CLAIM A HAT TRICK?

If the Opinion polls across all channels are to be believed then Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan is leading his party to a historic third consecutive term in the state assembly polls in November 2013. The saffron outfit has been in power in the state since 2003, when the dynamic Hindutva icon, the firebrand Uma Bharati routed the Congress under Digvijay Singh as the BJP won nearly seventy five per cent of the seats. However a year later, after an arrest warrant was issued for her role in the Hubli riot case, she was asked to resign and was replaced by her Home Minister Babulal Gaur. In 2005, Gaur was himself replaced by Shivraj, whose name has become synonymous with the party in much of the state. For all those who accused him of reaping the benefits of the hard work put in by Bharati, Chauhan won a second straight victory here in 2008 despite of Bharati's rebellion. In fact, at one point of time, his name was even being considered in party circles for the job of BJP's Prime Minister nominee in an attempt to prevent the splitting of the NDA on the candidature of Narendra Modi. Although he may have lost the race to lead the BJP's coalition at the Center to his more flamboyant counterpart from Gujarat, the incumbent Chief Minister is ready in the battle for Bhopal. 

Like so many of the leaders in the Opposition today, Shivraj's foray into politics began with the underground movement against the Emergency in 1977. A four time MP from Vidisha, his entry into state politics began in the 2003 assembly polls where he was pitted against Congress heavyweight and the sitting CM Diggi Raja from his stronghold of Raghogarh. Though Uma led BJP won a splendid victory; though Chauhan himself lost the polls, his courageous step had won him many admirers, especially in the party high command. After Bharati resigned in 2004, Gaur was made the CM, a stop gap arrangement to keep various factions happy. Serving as the BJP President back then, he was chosen for the top job in spite of him not being on good terms with Bharati. Nonetheless, the soft spoken Shivraj built up his image, primarily on the development work carried by him and managed to see off the rebellion of his bete noire. And then came the biggest moment of his political career in 2008 when he scripted a historic win for his party, winning about 140 seats. This victory enhanced his reputation beyond Bhopal and as the leadership debate heated up in the saffron outfit ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha, his name was being considered because of his clean image. Although the tough talking Gujarat CM Narendra Modi took away the cake, Chauhan will certainly not mind as long as he is at the helm of affairs in Bhopal.

There are several reasons that have contributed to the spectacular rise of the incumbent CM in the last eight years. A not so well known face in political circles prior to 2005, his development schemes aimed specially at women and the poorer sections of the society have been a mass hit. In a state that has seen very little worth while development over the years, Shivraj is looked upon as a leader who delivers on his promise. Unlike the Lalus and the Mulayums who have a support base amongst certain sections of the society, Chauhan's popularity has transcended such barriers. In fact, if the BJP comes to power here again in 2013, it will largely be due to the popularity of their leader. Another feather in his cap has been the manner in which he nullified the influence of Uma Bharati within such a small span of time. After the appointment of Shivraj, a furious Uma walked out of the BJP and founded a new party - the Bharatiya Janshakti Party. Although there were speculation that several MLAs would join her endangering the government, Chauhan managed to complete his term. And then in the next assembly polls, as the new outfit managed to get just five seats, Singh won a landslide. Three years later, by the time that the sanyasi returned back to the BJP in 2011, Chauhan had become one of the most popular faces of the party in the Hindi heartland.

For the BJP which was supposed to sweep MP according to all Opinion polls till some time back, the task seem be getting difficult by the day. The appointment of the junior Scindia as its campaign chief here is helping the Congress. Jyotiraditya's image as a youth leader and the goodwill of father - the late Madhavrao Scindia who are working in his favor. The internal feud between the two distinct camps within the party - the Jyotiraditya & Kamal Nath camp and the Digvijay Singh led group has been put on the back burner after intervention of the Gandhis. Reports now suggest that tickets are being distributed taking all the top leaders into account to prevent rebellion as far as possible. On the other hand the case of sexual assault against the former Finance Minister Raghavji who has been lately expelled from the party; the perception of the regime going soft on Asaram Bapu accused of raping a minor; the callousness of the administration that led to Ratangarh Mata Temple stampede that left 115 people dead and rising cases of atrocities against women are likely to hurt the BJP badly. What would go against the party though is the large number of rebels in the fray who are expected to dent its prospects across several seats. In a bid to combat anti-incumbency, many serving MLAs, including a few ministers have been denied ticket and they look determined to make a point by indulging in anti-party activities.

Knowing that anti-incumbency will be a factor, especially since the BJP has been in power here for two consecutive terms, the party has been pretty strict in selecting its candidates. The state BJP President Narendra Kumar Tomar and Organization head Arvind Menon, both of whom are said to be close to the CM are helping him in this arduous task. Amongst the heavy weights, Shivraj Singh Chauhan will seek re-election from Budni apart from sentering the fray in Vidisha, a move seen to cut the influence of Raghoji. Former CM and the Urban Minister in the state cabinet Gaur will file nominations from Govindpur. Prominent minister who have managed to make the cut include Home Minister Uma Shankar Gupta (Bhopal - South West), Industries Minister Kailash Vijaywagiya (Mhow) and Health Minister Dr. Narottam Mishra (Datia). To make sure that it maximizes its numbers, three serving MPs namely Yashodhara Raje Scindia, Bhupendra Singh and K D Deshmukh have been asked to contest from Shivpuri, Khurai and Khatangi. Taking a cue from the Congress, BJP too has fielded kin of several leaders including Uma Bharati's nephew Rahul Singh (Kharagpur), the sons of former CMs Sunderlal Patwa and Kailash Joshi and Anup Mishra - the nephew of former PM Vajpayee. Former Memebr of Parliament and Muslim face Arif Beg has been allocated a ticket from Bhopal - North. Several sitting MLAs who have been denied tickets are expected to contest independently or join rival outfits in the coming days.

For more on the Madhya Pradesh Elections 2013, click here (Link)

THE STATES THAT MATTER - PART V

 BATTLEGROUND UP - Part B

With a population of over 20 crore people and encompassing an area of over 2.43 lakh sq km, Uttar Pradesh is the big daddy amongst all states of the Indian Union. Though blessed with fertile land and vast bounty of natural and human resource, the state has lagged behind others in terms of infrastructure development and social progress. While UP has given the country eight Prime Ministers since independence, ironically, the state which has been the melting pot of various cultures in ancient and medieval times, and its people have remained largely backward in many aspects. A crucial reason for this has been the fact that the politics of UP has been dominated by insignificant factors like caste and religion. 

In the last assembly elections conducted in the state in 2007, an important factor, apart from the ‘Social Engineering’ strategy that led to the BSP’s excellent showing was a strong wave of anti-incumbency against the Mulayam Singh regime. With the BJP jostling with infighting amongst its top leaders and the state unit of the Congress in complete disarray, the anti-SP votes went into Maya’s kitty leading her to a simple majority in the Uttar Pradesh Vidhan Soudha. However, this time around the tables have turned on the BSP. With the few development schemes of the Mayawati government being overshadowed by the numerous corruption scandals, poll pundits have predicted that the party may find it extremely tough to cross the 150 mark, let alone coming into power on its own.

UP CM  Mayawati

The Samajwadis have undergone significant changes in their ranks in the last five years that they were in the opposition. After the Left parties pulled out their support to the UPA - I government on the issue of the Nuclear bill, it was the SP that bailed the Central government out with the help of its 39 MPs. However, with differences over the Congress on seat sharing in the state, the SP joined the ‘Fourth Front’, comprising of the RJD, LJP and SP. Although the party was reduced to 23 seats in the Lok Sabha, it salvaged some pride by finishing at the top in the four way contest in Uttar Pradesh. In January 2011, industrialist cum politician Amar Singh was expelled from the SP. Known for his affluent lifestyle, links with Bollywood personalities and accused in several cases of corruption, Singh’s exit has added more credibility to the outfit.

The Samajwadi Party has launched a massive campaign, titled ‘Ummed ki Cycle’ to wrest back power from the BSP. Leading the poll bandwagon is Kannauj MP and the party’s Yuvraj Akhilesh Yadav. The young leader’s cycle rallies across different corners of the state have been a huge hit and have witnessed sizable crowds. The state polls will be a crucial phase in the young scion’s political career and a good showing by the SP will firmly establish him as a prominent player in North Indian politics. The foreign educated Akhilesh has also made it clear that his party is not against computers or English, a paradigm shift from its earlier stand and an attempt to reach out to the urban youth. However, he has maintained that emphasis will be on Hindi and Urdu in case his father gets a fourth term as the state’s Chief Minister.

However, the greatest worry for the SP is losing the anti-BSP votes to a resurgent Congress. After being out of power for the last 22 years and reduced to a mere 21 seats in the last elections, the UP unit of the party has been rejuvenated by the entry of Rahul Gandhi into the election campaign. Though his charisma failed to impress the electorate in Bihar, Rahul seems to have touched a chord with the people of UP. This was evident in the superb performance of the Congress in the General elections where it bagged as many as 21 seats surpassing all expectations.

Realizing that a strong presence in the state will hold the key to his party’s future, the young leader has never missed any opportunity to hit at the Mayawati government, be it the Bhatta-Parsaul agitation against forcible land grabbing, lack of development or the allegations of corruption against Behenji and her colleagues. In his speeches, Rahul has blamed the successive SP, BSP and BJP governments in Lucknow for the lack of infrastructure development in the state, ignoring the fact that no worthwhile development was done during the 40 year long period when the Congress was in power in the state. An alliance with Ajit Singh’s RLD has also enhanced the Congress’s poll prospects. While her older brother is campaigning across the nook and corner of the state, Priyanka Gandhi, the other half of the famous Gandhi siblings is canvassing for the party’s candidates in the family bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareli.

With so much media hype revolving around Rahul, many are claiming that this could be the make-or-break elections for him A good showing by the Congress will be regarded as a vote for Rahul rather than for the Congress’s ideology by the loyal party workers and will be heralded as his coming of age in the arena of Indian politics, thereby accelerating his ascent towards the PM’s post. However, an average performance could end up giving more ammunition to the BJP and other parties to ridicule the Congress’s poster boy. Though there is little doubt that senior party leaders will defend Rahul baba at all costs in case of an electoral drubbing, like they did after the Bihar polls in 2010, the whole situation will surely be embarrassing for the Congress, to say the least.

Even the BJP is trying hard to retain lost ground in the state. The saffron outfit which ruled the state under Kalyan Singh and Rajnath Singh has been consistently losing ground in the state over the last few years. For a party that began its journey to the top of Indian politics from UP, it is ironically that today, the BJP finds itself in such a hopeless position in the state. Strengthening the party in Uttar Pradesh is one of the topmost priorities of the chief Nitin Gadkari. With this objective in mind the party has made Hindutva firebrand and its OBC face, Uma Bharathi as the spearhead of its election campaign. Also the party is trying hard to woo back the upper caste votes that had gone to the BSP in the last election.

Babu Singh Kushwaha

Ever since the whole nation stood behind Anna Hazare in the fight for a strong and effective Lokpal, corruption has become a major political issue in every state that goes to polls this year and Uttar Pradesh is no exception. With fresh allegations of corruption cropping up at regular intervals against Behenji and her ministers, the Opposition has upped its ante against the state government. Many will remember that during her previous tenure, the UP CM was accused of accepting graft to give clearance to the multi-crore Taj Corridor project, ignoring all environmental concerns and the damaging effects it would have on the World Heritage Monument. Though no significant progress has been made in the CBI investigation looking into the scam, a slew of corruption charges against the Dalit icon’s cabinet ministers and close aides might cut short her dream of retaining the mega state.

Probably, the most well-known of all the scams that have tarnished the BSP government is the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) scam in which top ministers, bureaucrats and their aides have been accused of siphoning off an estimated Rs 10,000 crore released by the Central government for improving health care in remote areas of the state. Moreover, the death of several heath department officials under mysterious circumstances is been widely viewed as an attempt to cover up the scam by eliminating key links that lead to the actual perpetrators of the crime. Meanwhile, Union Rural Development minister Jairam Ramesh has asked Mayawati to order a CBI investigation into the embezzlement of funds meant for the implementation of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) in several districts of the state. The myriad cases of land grabbing, amassing of disproportionate assets, misuse of power and public wealth have clearly put the elephant on the back foot.

Rahul Gandhi is raking up the issue of widespread corruption in the Maya government to get the Congress into power in Lucknow. In every rally that the PM-in-waiting has addressed so far in the state, he has accused the BSP’s Hatthi of eating all money released by the UPA government for the welfare of the state. On similar lines, the father-son duo of Mulayam Singh and Akhilesh Yadav has also focused on the issue of corruption to catapult the SP back to power. The BJP, which had earlier accused the Maya government of indulging in widespread corruption, scored a self-goal by welcoming the former state minister Babu Singh Kushwaha into the party after he was shown the door by Behenji following investigations into the NRHM scam. Besides, hitting the credibility of the saffron outfit, it has also damaged the morale of the cadre, who reports suggest, were against the move taken unilaterally by the high command.

As always, instead of taking all the criticism lying down, the ‘Iron Lady’ of Uttar Pradesh has launched a major campaign to get an image makeover ahead of the polls. After a report by the CAG indicted the state health and family welfare ministries in the NHRM scam, Mayawati dropped two of her closest ministers, Babu Singh Kushwaha (Family Welfare) and Anant Kumar Mishra (Health) from her cabinet and her party. Several tainted babus including Awadhesh Verma (Backward Class Development), Fateh Bahadur Singh (Forest), Anis Ahmed (Minorities Welfare & Haj), Awadhpal Singh Yadav (Animal Husbandry & Diary Development), etc were sacked after the state Lokayukta started probing allegations against them. Others like Shrinath (Chairman of UP SC/ST Commission), Disha Chamber (Chairman of UP Scheduled Caste Finance Commission) and Ashok Kumar Dhore (Water Resource) were dismissed for reasons like extra-marital affair, indiscipline and misconduct respectively. Like the BJP in Uttarakhand, the BSP has dropped nearly a third of all its sitting MLAs, including nearly 20 ministers in the incumbent government.

While it is true that Maya’s record in the last five years in tackling corruption in UP has been dismal, to say the least, no political party can claim moral high ground on this issue. To counter Rahul tirade against the BSP government for being inefficient to tackle this menace, Mayawati has hit back by highlighting the several scandals that have plagued the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre. The entry of Kushwaha into the BJP has dealt a severe blow to the party’s campaign in the state and it has failed to derive any political mileage out of the catch 22 situation that the Congress and the BSP find themselves in. The Samajwadis have decided to play it safe and have slammed its doors on all cabinet ministers and MLAs who wanted to join its rank after being dumped by the BSP. Meanwhile, investigations into allegations of corruption against Mulayam and his close relatives, including Akhilesh are still in progress. 

Dalit women

Probably, the biggest issue in all elections in UP so far, from the Lok Sabha elections to the Panchayat elections has been the caste factor. Whether one accepts or not, it is rather sad that the caste of the candidate decides whom the voter votes for in. Over the years, regional satraps like Maya and Mulayam have become masters of this trade.

Behenjihas emerged to be the most popular Dalitleader in India and her party's vote bank is primarily the Harijan votes. In 2007, she reached out to other communities, most notably the upper castes with her unique experiment of 'Social Engineering' - a brainchild of leader, Subhash Mishra, and came to power with an absolute majority. The Brahmin leader was sidelined in the BSP after he was accused of appointing his family members to party posts, leading to protests from the Dalit leaders who felt that this would cause the party's core vote bank to drift away. Soon their fears turned into reality when a significant chunk of Dalit votes went to the Congress and the BSP managed to get only 20 seats in the last general elections. Hoping to retain her post and the to woo the Brahmin community, Mayawati has brought back Mishra into the forefront ahead of the polls. 

Like Mayawati, the SP's primary vote bank is the Yadav and OBC community to which its leader Mulayam belongs to. The Congress is also hoping to win the Dalit and OBC communities to its side, with Rahul Gandhi making every effort possible to reach out to them. The BJP on its part is going all out to bring back the Brahmin votes, which it had lost to the BSP in 2007, to its kiity. Also, by making OBC leader Uma Bharati the face of its state campaign, the saffron outfit is hoping to increase its chances of winning as many seats as possible. Besides, it has also risked roping in Babu Kushwaha to win over the Kushwaha community that accounts for 3% of the state's population.

More on the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2012

Battleground UP - Part A

Battleground UP - Part C

SOURCES

(1) Zee News –Multi-crore MNREGA scam in UP, alleges Ramesh (Link)

(2) Wikipedia – Taj Corridor Scam, UP NHRM scam, Akhilesh Yadav (Link) 

(3) BSP claims Mayawati sacked ministers after survey – India Today (Link)

(4) With eye on UP polls, Mayawati intensifes clean-up – India Today (Link)

(5) Mayawati woos Brahmins in run up to elections, projects SC Mishra as leader (Link)

IMAGES

(1) UP CM Mayawati (Link)

Source: Zee News

(2) Babu Singh Kushwaha (Link)

Source : India Today

(3) Dalit women (Link)

Source : Jagran Post

THE STATES THAT MATTER - PART II

BATTLEGROUND UP - Part A

In Indian politics, they say that ‘The road to Delhi goes via Lucknow’. With a population of about 20 crore and an assembly comprising of a staggering 406 seats, it is no doubt that the impact of the political drama played out in the state of Uttar Pradesh, are felt at the Centre. A large number of our national leaders hail from here and the issues that affect the people in the heart of the ‘Hindi heartland’ regularly find resonance in the national Parliament.

Apart from being the cradle of Indian civilization since time immemorial, the state has produced as many as eight Prime Ministers since independence and is also the home to India’s premiere political family – The Nehru-Gandhi family. It was the demolition of the Babri Masjid in the holy town of Ayodhya by Kar-sevaks in 1994 that catapulted the BJP to power, first in UP and then at the Centre. The 80 MPs that represent the state in the Lok Sabha play a crucial role in the permutations and combinations that take place in the process to form and retain Union governments or to stack in the numbers to pass contentious bills. After all, it was the support of the 23 Samajwadi Party MPS that saved the UPA government after the Communist pulled out their support to the Congress-led government citing differences over the nuclear deal. And as the state goes to polls early this year, it is but natural that the assembly polls will be fiercely contested and can make or break the careers of many a political heavyweights.

UP CM and BSP Chief Mayawati (Courtesty: Article)

The incumbent Chief Minister and the BSP supremo, Mayawati will be looking to recreate the magic that brought her to power in the 2007 assembly polls with a clear majority. Her unique experiment of fielding a combination of Dalit and Brahmin candidates, a brain-child of her confidant S C Mishra, dubbed as ‘Social Engineering’, won her the upper caste votes while BSP’s traditional lower caste support base continued to remain loyal to her. Though she has managed to complete her full term and improve the law and order situation in the state, several cases of corruption against her and her ministers, have continued to haunt her government from time to time. The forcible acquisition of land from farmers in Bhatta-Parsaul village in Muzzafarabad district and the agitation that followed, including the death of 4 people in the subsequent police crackdown on the farmer protests, caught nation-wide attention with opposition parties, including the Congress, BJP etc aiming to derive political mileage out of the situation. And of course, the construction of several parks across the state with statues of her, Dr Ambedkar, her mentor Kanshi Ram and her party symbol, the Elephant out of public exchequer has been regularly criticized with her political rival, Mulayam Singh threatening to pull them down if elected to power.

In the 2009 general elections, the ‘Dalit ki beti’ who is today, India’s richest CM, reiterated her desire to become the first Dalit Prime Minister of the country. Although she won 6.7% of the total votes casted and the BSP emerged as the third largest party in terms of vote share, she managed to win a paltry 21 seats, two less than the SP and one less the Congress in UP. While her dream to become the PM was dashed, Maya tried to replicate her 2007 strategy in several other states but with little or no success.

Aiming to retain power for a second consecutive term, Behenji has tried to improve her public image by sacking several ‘corrupt’ ministers from her party including her former close aide, Babu Singh Kushwaha and Avdesh Verma and has denied tickets to many of her ‘non-performing’ MLAs. Instead of talking about her achievements as the state’s CM, which in fact, were few and far in between, Maya’s election campaign is expected to be largely based on the shortcomings of her political opponents and thus projecting herself  as the only viable alternative in the four sided contest. Besides, she has raised the issue of bifurcation of UP into four smaller states, thereby putting other political parties into a tight spot and cut them to size while consolidating her position. Although opinion polls predict a hung assembly, a victory in the upcoming polls will further give wings to her national aspirations and make her a top contender for the leadership of the Third Front in the 2014 general elections, provided its constituents remain loyal to the cause of forming a non-Congress, non-BJP government at the Centre.

SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav (Courtesy: Samajwadi Party)

 At 72, Mulayam Singh Yadav will enter the fray to seek a fourth term as the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. Training his guns at the incumbent CM on the issue of widespread corruption in the Mayawati government, the Samajwadi Party which has christened its poll campaign as ‘Ummed ki cycle’, promising to ‘undo all damage’ caused by the BSP government  in the last five years. The cycle rallies organized across the state have attracted sizable crowds but it remains to be seen whether it translates into votes or not. Amar Singh’s exit has added more credibility to the party whereas the re-entry of his rival and the party’s Muslim face, Azam Khan after being expelled for six years in 2009 for anti-party activities, has boosted the morale of party workers. Realizing that corruption is a major political issue, all thanks to the Anna Hazare movement, the SP has slammed its doors on several ministers who were dropped from the Maya cabinet as they were accused of corruption. However, the lawlessness during his previous tenures and several impending corruption cases against him and his family members are questions that have been regularly raised by Mulayam’s detractors and political opponents.

Leading his party’s 'Kranti Rath Yatra', crown prince and Kannauj MP Akhilesh Yadav has travelled across the length and breadth of UP in a bid to convince people of vote for his party. Although the junior Yadav has denied reports that he is the SP’s Chief Ministerial candidate, a win in the polls will be a shot in the arms and will, for sure, firmly establish his stature as a mass leader. A victory for the Samajwadi Party will also bolster Mulayam’s standing on the political stage ahead of the next national elections. The post poll tie up with the Congress, like in the past, is likely in case of a hung assembly.

Congress leaders Digvijay Singh and Rahul Gandhi (Courtesy: Hindu) 

Excluding the Jagdambika Pal government that was termed ‘unconstitutional’ by the Supreme Court in 1998 after three days in office, the Congress has effectively remained out of power in Lucknow in last 22 years. The fortunes of the party have dwindled over the years and its support base has been largely reduced to areas like Rae Bareily and Amethi - the Nehru-Gandhi bastions.

However, the 2009 general elections saw a revival of the party as it won an amazing 22 seats to emerge as the second largest party in the terms of the total seats won in Uttar Pradesh. The party leaders gave the credit of this surprising success to Rahul Baba’s campaign and urged him to work towards strengthening the party’s state unit. Over the last few years, he has never missed any opportunity to hit out at the Mayawati government, accusing the 'Elephant' in Lucknow of eating up all the cenral funds allocated to the state by the UPA government. He along with the Congress general secretary and ‘drama-king’, Digvijay Singh led an agitation against the police atrocities in Bhatta-Parsaul. However, the so-called youth icon’s claims that 70 farmers had died in the police crackdown and several of their women were raped, could not be backed with any substantial evidence and like in the past, the senior party leaders had to step in to defend the Gandhi scion.

Though chances of Congress retuning to power, in spite of a pre poll alliance with Ajit Singh’s RLD, look bleak, the party will try to muster as many seats as possible and will for sure win more seats than in 2007, when it was reduced to just 22. A good performance by the Congress will be a major milestone in Rahul's journey towards the PM's chair whereas a poor show will give the opposition another reason to belittle the Congress's Yuvraj. A post poll tie up with the SP is a realistic possibility and will be a win-win situation for both the parties. While Mulayam will fulfill his political aspirations in UP, the entry of the SP into the UPA will boost its strength and reduce the Congress’s dependence on the mercurial TMC chief Mamata Bannerji. Also, the tie up will help the Congress-led government to push its own version of the Lokpal Bill on the upcoming Parliamentary session as it will have the necessary numbers in both the Houses and prevent further embarrassment from the Opposition and civil society members over the issue.

BJP leaders Arun Jaitley and L K Advani (Courtesy: India Today)

The BJP which grew out of UP to become the alternative to the Congress has seen the highs and the lows in the state in the last two decades. In its zenith, the saffron outfit ruled the state on its own under Kalyan Singh and tied up several times with BSP but this ‘marriage of political convenience’ has been short lived and has ended up in public fallout followed by mud-slinging from both sides. The BJP today has no prominent leader in the state who can mesmerize the crowds like former PM Atal Behari Vajpayee did during his political career. Murali Manohar Joshi, Lalji Tandon and Ranjnath Singh lack the charisma and support base to take on the likes of Mulayam and Mayawati. In the 2007 assembly polls, the BSP ate into the BJP’s traditional upper caste vote bank, thereby reducing it to just 50 odd seats. The alleged inflammatory speech by Varun Gandhi boomeranged on the party as the Muslim votes polarized in favor of the Congress in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, and the party finished fourth in spite of an alliance with the Kurmi outfit, Apna Dal.

Hindutva leader Uma Bharati, who was re-inducted into the party after being dismissed for her on camera spat with Advani has been made in-charge of the UP poll campaign. The party’s image took a beating when it embraced former BSP leader, Kushwaha in spite of corruption charges against him. Though the party has tried some damage control by keeping the former state minister’s primary membership on hold for the time being, it has lost the moral high ground on the issue of corruption. As such the BJP’s tirade against Congress over the scams in the UPA regime and its failure to draft a ‘strong’ Lokpal Bill may find few, if not no takers. Also, Kushwaha’s entry has drawn criticism from all quarter, including the state unit, the Sangh Parivar and NDA allies. Like the Congress, the BJP too has no realistic chance of coming to power on its own in UP. Rather it will hope to retain its present number tally or at best, try to win around 80 to 100 seats and may end up aligning with the BSP.

While the largest state of the world’s largest democracy goes to polls, the Election Commission of India has an uphill task to ensure that the exercise is conducted in a free and fair manner and the code of conducted is adhered to by all candidates. Considering the sheer massiveness of the state and the hooliganism that has infested it in the past, the EC has decided to conduct the elections in seven phases starting from 8^th February to 3^rd March. Will Mayawati’s ‘Social Engineering’ work for the second time or will Mulayam ride his way to the legislative assembly on the SP’s cycle? Will Rahul Gandhi’s charisma translate into votes for the Congress or will the BJP retain lost ground in the state? These and all other questions will be answered on 6^th March (The States That Matter - Part VII) as the votes are counted and the results are announced.

More on the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2012

The States That Matter V - Part B

The States That Matter V - Part C 

IMAGES

(1) UP CM and BSP Chief Mayawati (Courtesy: Article) (Link)

Source: Elephant Giving Nightmares to Rahul 

(2) Samajwadi Party leader Mulayum Singh Yadav (Courtesy: Samajwadi Party) (Link)

Source: Samajwadi Party

(3) Congress leaders Digvijay Singh and Rahul Gandhi (Courtesy: Hindu) (Link)

Source: The Hindu - UP polls: Congress for aggressive campaigning

(4) BJP leaders Arun Jaitely and L K Advani (Courtesy: India Today) (Link)

Source: India Today