BACK INTO THE PACK

YEDDY REJOINS THE BJP

Courtesy: Yeddyurappa.in

Former Karnataka CM and Lingayat strongman B S Yeddyurappa rejoined the BJP last week, a development that could see the saffron outfit do relatively well compared to the debacle it suffered in the state polls held about six months ago. The Shikaripura MLA had joined the Karnataka Janata Party (KJP) just before the 2013 state assembly elections along with his supporters and well wishers after the high command refused to re-install him as the Chief Minister considering the allegations of corruption levied against him; in fact, in one such case, he was arrested and jailed in October 2011 after the state Lokayukta found of guilty of illegally denotifying land in Bengaluru to favor his son. Miffed by his party's decision to sideline him, he had vowed to teach the BJP a lesson, hopeful that his caste which is the biggest in Karnataka will stick with him. At that same time, with many pundits expecting a hung assembly, it was believed that the KJP could emerge as the Kingmaker. While he did manage to hit the BJP hard in many places, especially in the north, Yeddy's outfit got just six seats with many of his trusted aides including Shobha Karandalaje biting the dust. As Congress' Siddaramaih was crowned, the saffron party relegated to third spot and Yeddy being a dud, one thing was clear - the BJP and its former state chief had to mend their differences in order to survive in the southern state. The question was not why... it was when. The elevation of Narendra Modi who is said to be close to BSY, within the party and the end of Advani era further helped this cause since the patriarch had been quite vocal in his criticism of the former CM. Finally, in January 2014, the Lingayat leader rejoined the party that he had built in the state over period spanning almost four decades in what was a rather low key ceremony attended by his rivals including Sadanand Gowda, Jagdish Shettar and bete noire Ananth Kumar. Along with him, three more KJP MLAs were joined the BJP; two more legislators B R Patil (Aland) and Guru Patil (Shahpur) have decided to remain independent for the time being.  

The development is a big boost for the BJP considering the route it had to face in the 2013 polls. Such was the fate of the party that it lost the race to become the primary opposition to the Janata Dal - Secular (JD-S). The rejoining of the KJP supremo will help strengthen the outfit, specially in North Karnataka where the Lingayat community is predominant. An analysis of the state results shows that the BJP lost about 30 to 35 seats due to a split of votes between it and the KJP, with a majority of these seats eventually going to the Congress. While it may not have dramatically changed the game, the fact remains that had BSY still be in the saffron camp, the BJP would have easily crossed the 60 mark. In the hindsight, considering the kind of regime that they gave to Kannadigas in those 5 disastrous years, I believe the BJP definitely deserved the drubbing that they got. Meanwhile, BSY has sounded the electoral bugle. He has set a target of 20 seats; it will be quite an achievement even if the saffron party gets past the two-digit mark. Although, 2009 was a nightmare for the BJP, it did extremely well in Karnataka, bagging 18 of the 28 seats. However, this time around, the Congress is hopeful of riding on the wave in its favor and win over 15 seats. The entry of Yeddy may make it a more even contest now. Secondly, in my opinion, it is a shot in the arm for Narendra Modi. The appointment of the Gujarat CM at the helm of affairs before the 2014 general elections has been the key reason for the re-entry of the Lingayat leader. The whole affair is a proof that his anointment has helped further strengthen the party organization and rejuvenate the cadre. The Hindutva strongman will hope that BSY's presence will help the BJP perform well in Karnataka and help him in his mission to get 272+ seats.

Now, the rejoining of Yeddy into the BJP has its own set of liabilities too. The manner in which the party leadership sought to keep the whole thing a simple affair rather than planning a huge rally to welcome its former chief in the state, something you might have expected to happen in Indian politics, says it all. Although he may have exonerated of most of the charges framed against him, Yeddyurappa has a public image of being corrupt and greedy. The numerous cases against him become a cause of embarrassment for party and took the sting off their attack on the scams unearthed during UPA II at the Centre. At a time when corruption is becoming a major electoral issue after years, the return of BSY could dent the BJP's image. Secondly, another headache for the state leadership will be to keep the organization united. When he stepped down from the post of the Chief Minister, he chose his close aide D V Sadanand Gowda - a Vokkaliga, a clear move to keep away other Lingayat leaders from gaining prominence. However, when it became clear that DVS would not act like his pawn, BSY pressurized the party to have him replaced with Jagdish Shettar. A few months later though, the duo fought and after the BJP high command refused to sack Shettar, Yeddy walked out. In the months before the elections, DVS and Shettar had publicly taken on BSY, claiming that his departure had cleansed the saffron outfit. While the two were present at the occasion, it remains to be seen whether they are ready to forget the past and work together. However, what remains to be seen is whether BSY and Ananth Kumar can dissolve their differences. The fiction between the two is a stuff of legends in party circles. The performance of the BJP will largely depend on how they can curb their individual differences for the greater cause. And lastly, a third reason for the party's headache ahead of the General elections might be Yeddyurappa's authoritarian attitude. It is believed that just in about a week of the development, he has started throwing around his weight and has asked the party to drop as many as 10 sitting MPs including some big names - Prahalad Joshi (Dharwad), Ananthkumar Hegde (North Kanara), Suresh Angadi (Belgaum), P C Mohan (Bangalore - Central) and Chandre Gowda (Bangalore - North). The dropping of such heavyweights may lead to internal rebellion jeopardizing the party' plans altogether. Certainly, the return of Yeddyurappa back into the saffron camp is a calculated risk. Whether it pays off or further plunges damages the prospects of the party in Karnataka need to be seen.

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Yeddyurappa.in
Source: B S Yeddyurappa (Link)

BATTLEGROUND KARNATAKA - PART 2

THE QUADRIPARTITE BATTLE FOR POWER

However, the problem plaguing the Congress is the plethora of Chief Ministerial candidates and the friction amongst them which has jeopardized the entire process of ticket distibution with each leader wanting their confidantes to be the official nominees of the party. Siddaramaiah, the leader of opposition in the outgoing assembly is the front runner in the race. Belonging to the 80 lakh strong Kuruba Gowda caste,

Rahul at a rally in Dharwad

he has considerable influence in the Old Mysore region and has served as the Deputy CM twice in the past. However,the biggest problem for him is that since he joined the INC after falling apart with his mentor Deve Gowda in 2008, many look upon him as an outsider and prefer a Gandhi-Nehru loyalist for the post. Enter Dr. G Parameshwar who was hand picked by Sonia Gandhi to head the KPCC in 2010. Being a multiple time MLA and a fresh face, he does enjoy the support of many insiders. 'Rebel star' and Kannada film star Ambareesh also nurtures ambitions to occupy the CM's chair. With the death of Dr. Rajkumar and Vishnu Vardhan, he is regarded by many as the tallest star in the Kannada film industry today. However, his brash temperament and limited influence in the Mysore region may go against him. S M Krishna, the former External Affairs minister who has served as the CM from 1999 to 2004, has lost much of his former charisma but is still quite popular, especially in the capital Bengaluru which was developed a lot under his tenure. In case, no consensus emerges, he may be called up as the 'please-all' candidate. Leaders from Hyderabad-Karnataka region like Union Labour Minister Malikarjuna Kharge and former CM Dharam Singh are the dark horses in the race for the throne.

The father-son duo of Deve Gowda and H D Kumaraswamy are working tirelessly to replicate in Karnataka what the Yadavs (Mulayum-Akhilesh) and the Badals (Parkash-Sukhbir) did in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab respectively. In his 20 month long stint as the CM, some of the initiatives launched by the junior Gowda were well received by the people. No one can deny that the withdrawal of support to the BSY government in 2008 by the JD(S) which was projected as a betrayal by the BJP won it sympathy votes. Not so surprisingly, the party dropped 31 seats to finish with just 28 in the last elections. Even in

The Gowdas

2009 Lok Sabha, the JD(S) could win only 3 seats. This time though, the mood is upbeat and the Gowdas are trying their best to woo the voters even beyond their traditional bastion of Southern Karnataka and its core vote bank - the Vokkaliggas and become a strong third alternative to the people of the state. The party manifesto has several sops to the farmers, weavers and fishermen. The 'Secular' party has promised funds for the development of minorities and effectively tackle corruption. By declaring its candidate list after the two national parties, it has accommodated several dissident leaders from these outfits. If the JD(S) manages to get over 60 seats and the Congress fails to get a simple majority, then it will emerge as a key player in the post poll scenario. Some reports suggest that, the Gowdas may not be averse to ally with the BJP if that is an option to come to power. Unlike the Congress, the JD(S) does not have an recognized faces apart from the Gowda duo. In fact, two of its other prominent faces - Siddaramaiah and late M P Prakash had quit in 2008 after they realized that the former PM would only support his own son as the next chief. While this prevents any infighting, the sad part for the party is that it is heavily reliant on the top two for campaigning.

Many believe that in 2013 assembly elections, Yeddyurappa is likely to emerge as the King-maker, all the more because of the four way contest that the state will witness. After being side-lined in the party that he had built in the state, the Lingayyat strongman joined the Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) founded by Padmanabha Prasanna in November last year. Soon a string of loyalist, right from ministers in the government to corporators and  ordinary workers broke their association with the BJP and followed their leader into his new party. Yeddy's outfit has had a pretty good start as it managed to do fairly well in the local polls, managing to eat into the saffron outfit's vote share. By praising Sonia Gandhi before jumping to KJP, it is believed that he is keeping all his options open and might fill in the numbers in case the party falls short of the magic number. Though, he may vehemently deny it, allying with the BJP may not be difficult either. Thus, he is poised to become the game-changer in this elections in case of a hung assembly which is the most likely scenario if not for a Congress victory. However, allying with KJP may not be so easy. The long list of illegal land deals that he and his family members are accused of will hurt both the KJP and its future ally. Also, as the BJP leadership will tell, he is a tough nut to crack and will be difficult to deal with. One should not forget that besides DVS and Shettar, the KJP boss even had founder Prasanna thrown out of the party.

Yeddy knows that by leaving the BJP, he has taken the biggest gamble of his political career and a lot depends on the May 8 results. The Linggayyat leader who was known to given liberal grants to Mutts and seers during his tenure as the CM still has lots of friends in religious circles, all of whom are now

KJP supremo Yeddyurappa

asking their disciples to vote for him. Next, he is trying hard to get the support of the Muslim community which is traditional loyal to the Congress. Audacious as it may sound, Yedyurappa is asking the masses to vote for him and not the candidate. Even the manifesto is full of sops to appease all sections of the society, from women to farmers, from Christians whose churches were robbed in his tenure to the old. But the shrewd politician that he is, Yeddy knows that winning anything above 20 seats will not be easy. Four of his blue-eyed boys have ditched him, probably because they fear the influence that Shobha Karandalaje welds over the KJP chief. If the BJP manages to do the impossible and comes back to power and if the KJP gets less than 15 seats then he will have no option but to go back to his old party. In case, the Congress sweeps the polls, then Yeddy has to get over 20 seats to stay relevant. While a hung assembly will make him the most important politician in the state, any other result will hurt him in the long run. Finally, if he bags 30 odd seats in the new assembly, then he may well lead the Third Front in the 2014 general elections, something which he says is his aim.

Finally, there are several other smaller parties and a few national parties that have virtually no presence in the state that are contesting the elections. B Sriramalu who has floated his own party - the BSR Congress is expected to do well in Bellary region. With the Reddy brothers throwing their weight and money power behind him, the Nayaka leader is touring the state, hoping to grab as many seats as possible in his kitty. The Loksatta Party founded by former bureaucrat Jaiprakash Narayan, which has promised 'clean' politics is making its debut. Dalit leader and BSP supremo Mayawati has also addressed rallies in Northern Karnataka where she was quizzed by EC officials for carrying large sum of money with her. Besides, other national parties like the Samajwadi Party, Nationalist Congress Party, Communist Party of India (Marxist) and Janata Dal (United) have fielded their candidates in different parts of the state. The upcoming polls will be the most important in the history of Karnataka. While it is rich in natural resources and is the premiere IT destination of the country, the state has a long way to go as it continues to be plagued with frequent droughts, poverty and inequality. Apart from this, corruption has threatened to derail infrastructure development, especially in 'hi-tech city' Bengaluru. The people of Karnataka have to make the right choice so that the prestige of their state is restored.

Battleground Karnataka - Part 1 (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Rahul at a rally in Dharwad
Original: Rediff - Rahul turns 40 (Link)

(2) The Gowdas
Original: The Gowda merry go round (Link)

(3) KJP supremo Yeddyurappa
Original: Yeddyurappa.in (Link)

BATTLEGROUND KARNATAKA - PART 1

THE QUADRIPARTITE BATTLE FOR POWER

With the people from the north eastern states re-electing their incumbent governments to power, the round one of the 2013 assembly polls is over and the action has now shifted to Karnataka which is scheduled to go to the polls on 5 May. As this is the first big state on the line this year, the contest is heating up and the fight is expected to get uglier by the day. The results of the local elections held about two months ago in the various cities and towns across Karnataka indicates an anti-BJP

CM Jagdish Shettar will lead the BJP

wave which is primarily benefiting the principal Opposition party - the Congress. Sensing victory, the INC is trying to build on the advantage in its attempt to form a majority regime on its own without the need of any unholy alliances. On the contrary, the BJP which is hit by numerous corruption scandals and defection is trying hard to prevent desertion of top leaders and more importantly the voters to other outfits. JD(S) chief Kumarswamy who has topped a recent poll as the preferred Chief Ministerial candidate of the electorate is highlighting the failures of the national parties to deliver on their promises in the past while asking the masses to give him a second shot at the top post. With the pundits predicting a hung assembly, the new entrants in the fray - former CM Yeddyurappa's KJP and Bellary strongman Sriramalu's BSR Congress are hoping to emerge as the King-makers so that can make the next government dance to their whims and fancies. Whether the predictions come true or not, it seems as though the Karnataka elections will probably be the most closely contested polls of this year and the outcome here will certainly have a bearing on how the fight for the next Lok Sabha shapes up.

In 2008, as the BJP swept the state winning 110 of the 224 seats on the line, many of its well wishers hoped that its 'model government' here would help it expand in other southern states. Five years down the line, it seems as if the regime which saw as many as three different CMs besides innumerable scandals will arguably be a top contender for the tag of the worst government in the history of Karnataka. Soon after assuming power, the top leadership of the party launched the infamous 'Operation Kamal (Lotus)' hoping to increase its strength in the Vidhan Soudha, wherein opposing MLAs were convinced to resign and then contest on BJP ticket from their respective constituencies. Though the Congress had employed such a strategy in Goa after they managed to topple the then Parrikar government in 2005, the manner in which Yeddy & Co. went about with this experiment did raise suspicion about huge sums of money being used to influence sitting legislators. Few months down the line, with the powerful and unbelievably rich Reddy brothers coming under the scanner on allegation of illegal mining and exporting of iron ore, the BJP was caught in a catch 22 situation as sacking Janardhan Reddy would cause a vertical split in their ranks whereas not taking any action would make the party look like being soft on corruption thereby affecting its own campaign against scams perpetrated by the UPA government at the Centre. Though Yeddyurappa managed to avert this crisis, the Lokayukta report indicting him of making profits through illegal land deals in Bengaluru was indeed a major embarrassment, compounded by his flat refusal to resign from his post inspite of pressure from the top leadership including patriarch Lal Krishna Advani and his media spats with Justice Hegde.

Eventually, the Shikaripur MLA was arrested and jailed, thereby becoming the first CM in the history of the country to be put behind the bars. With the calls for his head growing louder by the day and no alternative left, BSY finally put down his papers and entrusted his beloved post to his trusted aide D V Sadanand Gowda, who was the state president during the BJP's spectacular victory in 2008. It is believed that Yeddy had propped up Sadanand Gowda, a Vokkaligga as he closely

Modi addresses a rally in Bengaluru

guarded his image as the top leader of the Lingayyat community - the largest caste in the state, which is his biggest USP. However, things soon turned sour between the two and the former threatened to pull down the government which he had himself headed in the past. To prevent dissident activities, the party bowed to his demands and brought another of his former lieutenant Jagdish Shettar - this time a Lingayat to power. Not so surprisingly, the two fell apart soon and BSY quit the party that he had so pain stackingly established in the state over a period spanning nearly four decades and joined the KJP. Several leaders including former minister Shobha Karandalaje followed him into the new party. Besides, the 'porngate scandal' wherein three legislators were seen watching sleaze inside the Legislative Assembly, the revolt of B Sriramalu and the subsequent rout in Bellary Rural by-elections, the court case involving the disqualification of 11 party rebels and five independent MLAs and the desecration of churches in South Kanara further added to the woes of the premiere BJP government south of the Vindhyas.

There were two reasons for saffron outfit's resounding win in 2008 - the Lingayyat community's backing of BSY and the money power of the Reddy brothers. This time around though, with both Yeddyurappa and Sriramalu out of the BJP, the party is taking several steps to improve its performance, especially after the setback in the local elections. Firstly, Pralhad Joshi - the Member of Parliament from Dharwad was named as the new state president which is seen as a move to strengthen its position in northern parts of the state where the KJP is giving it tough competition. Joshi who had led the agitation to hoist the national flag at the Idgah Maidan in Hubli has both, a clean image and Hindutva past and hence was chosen over the likes of DVS and Eshwarappa. Secondly, in a bold move, the party had made Jagdish Shettar its leader ahead of the polls, hoping to retain the Lingayyat vote bank that had rallied behind it in the past. By naming their chief ministerial candidate, the BJP has virtually removed all scope of infighting in its ranks and made ticket distribution process much easier, something which has made life difficult for the INC. Trying hard to wash away the taint of corruption and mis-administration, the party is trying to project that it has been cleansed after the departure of BSY and the Reddys. Besides, it has also done something that parties in India rarely do with president Rajnath Singh saying a sorry for the failure to provide a stable government in Karnataka in the last five years. While this apology may be too little too late, nonetheless it is a positive gesture. The state leadership has managed to convince Yeddy loyalists - Basvaraj Bommai, Umesh Katti, Murugesh Nirani and V Somanna to stay back giving a big blow to the KJP. The manifesto includes a host of freebies like subsidized rice for the poor and laptops for students of standard XII. Also, it has roped in star campaigner Narendra Modi to address rallies in Bengaluru, Belgaum and Mangalore which has attracted sizable crowds.

The Congress in Karnataka, on the other hand, finds itself in the ideal situation as most of the opinion polls predict it to emerge close to the majority mark if not cross it comfortably. With the incumbent regime paralyzed by one scandal after another, much like the UPA at the Centre, it looks like the elections are INC's to lose. 

Parameshwar (Left) and Siddaramiah (Right)

However, the party is not taking any chances, aware that if it cannot cross the 113 mark on its own, then it has to rely on untrustworthy allies like JD(S) with which it had a love-hate relationship in the past or 'tainted' Yeddyurappa's KJP. The Congress has launched the 'Corruption Saaku' campaign in the state, asking the masses to vote out the BJP. Ironically, this comes at a time when the government it heads at the Centre coming under sharp criticism for a host of scandals including 2G, CWG, Coal-gate, Chopper-gate, Vadra-DLF land deals and so on. In its manifesto, it has promised interest free loans to the farmers. Treading a cautious line, it has refused tickets to several legislators from the BJP who had quit ahead of the polls as it believes that it has to maintain a clean image to get the votes. The heir-apparent Rahul Gandhi in his campaign in the state has repeatedly taken digs at the saffron party for its failure on multiple issues affecting the common man.

Battleground Karnataka - Part 2 (Link)

IMAGES 

(1) CM Jagdish Shettar will lead the BJP
Original: NDTV - Jagdish Shettar retains key departments like finance and mines (Link)

(2) Modi addresses a rally in Bengaluru
Original: The Hindu - Modi goes all out against the Congress (Link)

(3) Parameshwar (Left) and Siddaramiah (Right)
Original: Deccan Chronicle - BJP: Crisis of Candidates (Link)