Showing posts with label Kamal Nath. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kamal Nath. Show all posts

June 08, 2014

AND THE LOSING CAPTAIN IS...


VETERAN KHARGE MADE THE LEADER OF THE CONGRESS

Courtesy: Post Jagran
Apart from the Modi wave that swept the country taking the saffron outfit beyond the halfway mark, the 2014 General Elections will also be remembered for decimation of India's grand old party. Never in its 126 year long history had the Congress party recorded such a dismal performance in the Lok Sabha polls. While we can write a 1000 page book on why the INC failed to even win one tenth of the total seats in the Lower House of the Parliament - a pre-requisite to be termed as the 'principal opposition', a large part of the blame should fall on the (not-so)young and (un)able shoulders of the Vice President Rahul Gandhi. After all, was he not the one who led the party in a campaign which saw it record its worst ever showing and basically handed the victory to the BJP and Narendra Modi on a platter? While the junior Gandhi and his mummy Sonia did offer to resign at the recently held party convention, it was, as Times Now Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami put it, mere 'lip-service'. As the focus shifted from the election debacle to devising a strategy to resurrect the party ahead of the state polls scheduled later this year, many top guns including Digvijay Singh and Shashi Tharoor believed that it would be 'logical' for Rahul to head the 44 elected members of the Congress in the Lok Sabha. I mean, to be frank, I am pretty sure many of us would feel the same. However, it seems that the INC chief had other plans. In what is seen by some as an attempt by the party chief to shield her son from the attacks of a 'much stronger and a confident BJP' or as others feel, another occasion where Baba has refused to take 'responsibility', veteran Karnataka leader and former Railway Minister Mallikarjun Kharge has been appointed as the leader of the Congress party in the Lower House.

From the Congress' point of view, there are 'reasons' behind the move. The official party line has been that the top priority for the MP from Amethi now is to resurrect the party. The rout in the elections has been rude shock and has completely exposed the organizational mess that the party finds itself in as of today. While anti-incumbency has played a huge part in the poll debacle, there are other areas of concern too - the lack of strong state leaders who can get the votes, the inability to stitch alliances with key regional partners and the most importantly - the lack of internal democracy. Rahul has been quite vociferous about the need to revamp the Congress in his rather limited interaction with the media over the last five years, things like internal primaries before candidate selection (a move that proved to be a complete failure in the Lok Sabha elections), increasing the representation of women, empowering the Youth Congress et all. As such, the High Command - the Congress equivalent of the Communist 'Politburo' believes that there are important issues to be settled than warming the Opposition benches. This is true especially with the elections in Maharashtra and Haryana - two INC ruled states which the BJP and its allies literally swept, just around the corner. Another cause of concern for the INC would be that Rahul does not have any experience to take up this tough job. In fact, in the last Lok Sabha, the Vice President's attendance has been mere 42 percent; you see if Baba was a BE student, he would not have been able to answer the semester exams. With reports indicating that Rahul himself was not too keen to take up the job, the names doing the rounds were that of former Union ministers - Kamal Nath and Veerappa Moily. However, the appointment of Kharge as the head of the Congress parliamentary board did come in as a surprise.

While the Congress leaders may go to great lengths defending this decision, it is easy to see what why this is another mistake that the INC has done in the last few months. One of the reasons that Modi held the upper hand over Rahul during the course of the elections was that while the former had served and delivered as the Chief Minister of Gujarat, the latter was seen as a 'reluctant politician who never took any post'. In the decade that the UPA was in power, the Amethi MP was never a part of the government, he did not speak on subjects like corruption and women's safety when they shook the conscience of the nation or never articulated his views on important issues either in the Parliament or in the media. Of course, loyalists would spring to his defence; they will recall that 'infamous' news conference where the younger Gandhi literally forced the government to scrap that Ordinance to protect convicted MPs, a decision which was taken earlier in an all-party meeting headed by the Prime Minister (Link) or his fiery speech in the Talkatora stadium after his anointment as the chief of his party's election campaign where he vetoed the UPA regime to increase the cap on subsidized LPG cylinders for domestic use from 9 to 12. However, such 'symbolic' gestures are definitely not enough. That disastrous interview to Arnab where he talked only about RTI and women's empowerment was for many, one of the key turning points of the 2014 General Elections. For a voter like me, it was proof that Rahul had still a long way to go before he could even be 'considered', yes you read it right, 'considered' to be the PM of the world's largest democracy. As the head of the Congress, the 43 year old would have got crucial first hand experience that would come in handy in the future. The post would be an ideal platform for him to understand politics better, build a rapport with leaders across party lines and most importantly, help him in placing his point of view before the masses. As a matter of fact, several ex-Prime Ministers including Vajpayee, Narasimha Rao and even Rajeev Gandhi had served as the Leader of the Opposition and there is no reason as to why the junior Gandhi should not have done the same.

It makes sense for us to sit back and ponder as to what kind of message has the Congress sent to both, its workers and the people of the country by taking this decision. Lets suppose, the UPA had done the impossible, what I mean to say is the hypothetical situation wherein the UPA would have come to power for a third consecutive term. There was no question whatsoever as to who would become the PM of the country. The standard party line would be that since Rahul led the party's campaign, it would be 'natural' for him to take up the top job too. Now that the outfit has done miserably and considering the same argument, it is logical that Rahul should lead his party men in the Parliament as they shift from the treasury to the opposition benches. A good captain never abandons his ship, rather prefers going down with it. By refusing to head the Congress now, the Amethi MP has in some way, refused to own his share of responsibility. The effect that this move can potentially have on the cadre could be deadly. I mean who would like to work for an organization where the management takes the credit for all success but refuses to acknowledge its role in defeat. Certainly not me. I believe that thousands of Congress workers who worked for the party during the polls would be shattered by this development. Of course, there are many who still swear by the first family, the ones who feel they can do no wrong. However, the India of 2014 is certainly not the India of the 1970s and Rahul does not have the charisma that say, his grand mother had. While he may come across as a 'nice guy', there is no doubt that the move has not gone well with a lot of people. At a time when questions are being raised about his style of leadership, the least that he could have done is head the Congress legislative party at least for the time being and then take up some tough decisions to rejuvenate the party. May be, a few months down the line, he could have actually moved out.

Lastly, the move to appoint Kharge shows that the INC has certainly not learnt its lessons. With the likes of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi in the Parliament, will the Gulbarga MP be able to take decisions on his own? Come on. Manmohan Singh served as the PM for two consecutive terms but it is an 'open secret' that it was the UPA chairperson who called the shots during UPA I. In UPA II, the situation 'deteriorated' further with Rahul embarrassing the government on numerous occasions. In fact, it was evident that there was a certain amount of friction between the PM and the Congress VP and both were not on the same wavelength on several issues. Rahul did not even attend the farewell dinner for the outgoing PM hosted by his mother just a few days before the results were announced. Kharge's appointment has given scope for a similar situation to arise in the future. With Sonia Gandhi not keeping well, there could potentially be two power centers in the party in the Lok Sabha. While the former Union minister will take on the Modi government in the Parliament, Rahul will still command respect. After all, in the INC your abilities do not matter, as long as you belong to the Nehru-Gandhi parivar. As such, you should not be surprised if the two have serious differences of opinion on several matters. Besides, the decision has given ammunition to a stronger, more vibrant BJP to take pot shots at its nemesis. But by refusing to head the Congress party rightly, Rahul has certainly missed the first opportunity to set the things right in his party and may have contributed in weakening it further.

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Post Jagran
Source: Union Minister Mallikarjun Kharge open to become Karnataka CM (Link)

March 31, 2014

MADHYA PRADESH & LOK SABHA 2014


WILL MP HELP MODI BE THE NEXT PM



Considering its minuscule performance in South and the East, the BJP has to perform exceedingly well in the Hindi heartland for its 'Mission 272' to succeed. The saffron outfit's superlative performance in the state elections held in the later half of 2013 has further strengthened the already strong 'Modi wave'. One of the key states for the party is that of Madhya Pradesh. Having finished with nearly three fourths of the total seats, the saffronists are upbeat (Link). The incumbent CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan is extremely popular amongst the masses. Once seen as a potential PM nominee from the party, Chauhan has led the party to an unprecedented straight third term. The Congress slipped further, dropping over 10 seats to end with a disappointing tally of 58. You can see why the BJP is expected to paint the state orange. Of course, it is easier said than done. Remember, the party won the state elections in 2008 too by a massive margin. However, in the Lok Sabha polls held in the following summer, the Congress made a comeback of sorts, winning as many as 12 of the 29 parliamentary seats.

ISSUES

(1) The performance of the Chauhan regime: A relatively unknown face in state politics when he ascended the throne nearly nine years ago, CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan's regime has seen the implementation of several schemes that have helped in the development of the state. Under him, the road network has improved substantially. While the state generates more power now, the work on the linking of rivers has already started. Besides, populist schemes like providing TV sets and rice at Rs. 2 per kilogram have been huge hits. At the same time, welfare schemes including the Ladli Lakshmi Scheme, the Kanyadhan Yojna and the Janani Suraksha Yojna, all aimed at benefiting the women have been appreciated by the masses. While he has proved his administrative skills, another plus point for him is that he is seen as a moderate face by the minorities too.

(2) The failure of the Manmohan regime: While the Chauhan regime may have won a landslide victory in 2013 on the agenda of development, no such thing can be said about the UPA in its second innings. Besides, miserably failing to control price rise, several high ranking ministers in the Union Cabinet have been accused of being involved in multi-crore corruption scams. The anti-incumbency sentiment is strong. Thus while the BJP was able to retain power in Bhopal in spite of being in power for a decade by banking on the report card of their CM, it will be extremely difficult job for the Congress to replicate this in New Delhi.

(3) Modi vs Rahul: Madhya Pradesh is one of those states which sees a direct contest between the two national parties - BJP and the Congress. As such, it will be one state where the Narendra Modi versus Rahul Gandhi battle may have some impact on the way in which people vote. Both the Gujarat CM and the INC Vice-President campaigned heavily in the state on the eve of the assembly elections. Although the Opinion Polls may give Modi the upper hand, you cannot right the Gandhis off. Remember 2004?

CONTENDERS

(1) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): Though he may have lost out on the race to become the party's PM nominee to Narendra Modi, incumbent CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan remains the most popular political figure in the state, leading others by a massive margin. Winning a large state like Madhya Pradesh, that too, three times in a row is no mean task. The saffron camp is heavily relying on their CM's image as a pro-development and secular leader to get them the votes. In many parts of the state, Chauhan dominates the party's posters and advertisements, showing the kind of influence that he has on the cadre. There was some talk that party patriarch L K Advani was keen to contest the Lok Sabha polls from Bhopal. However, that did not materialize due to various reasons. Meanwhile, amongst the party's nominees from here are senior leader Sushma Swaraj (Vidisha), Yashodhara Raje Scindia (Gwalior) and state party president Narendra Singh Tomar (Morena).

(2) Congress: As if the loss in the assembly polls was not enough, the grand old party was humiliated when its official nominee from Bhind, former IAS officer Bhagirath Prasad crossed over to the saffron camp. The INC needs to draw inspiration from its performance in 2009 to gear up. However, one has to realize that on the eve of last General Elections, the UPA government was on a much stronger wicket. This time around though, the anti-incumbency against the Central regime is very strong all thanks to several corruption scams that have rocked the Singh government and its inability to resurrect the economy. The party has renominated two of its top Union Ministers - Kamal Nath (Chhindwara) and Jyothiraditya Scindia (Guna). Meanwhile, former Madhya Pradesh CM Digvijay Singh's brother Laxman Singh will face Sushma from Vidisha.

Others: The Aam Admi Party (AAP) will be making its debut here in 2014. It has given tickets to several leaders of the Narmada Bachao Andolan (NBA), former police officers social activists. The Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) which won a single seat in 2009 will be keen to retain Rewa. Other smaller contenders include the Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GPP), the Smamajwadi Party (SP), the JD(U) and the Left Front.

PAST PERFORMANCES

In 2003, the BJP under Hindutva icon Uma Bharati registered a famous win as they beat the Congress under Digvijay Singh. In the Lok Sabha 2004, when the nation voted the UPA to power, the state still remained loyal to the NDA. The following year though, Bharati was replaced, first by Babulal Gaur and then by her bete noire Shivraj Singh Chauhan. The incumbent CM has never looked back after that. Although, the saffron camp dropped nearly 30 seats in 2008 state polls, it still got a simple majority. The 2009 General Elections saw the INC make a come back of sorts as it managed to restrict the BJP to 16. Finally, Chauhan won a successive third term for his party in 2013.

Political Party
2013 SE2009 LE2008 SE2004 LE2003 SE
1
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
165
16
143
25
173
2
Congress (INC)
58
12
71
4
38
3
Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)
4
1
7
-
2
4
Others
3
-
9
-
17

MY PREDICTIONS

I expect the 2014 polls in Madhya Pradesh to be an action replay of the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress in the state is weak; to add to the woes is the strong anti-incumbency against the UPA regime. The INC will struggle to enter two digits. Meanwhile, the saffron camp will put on a brilliant show.

Political Party
Expected Seats
1
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
21-25
2
Congress
5-8
3
Others
0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) The Modi-Chauhan War: While the BJP may deny any rift between the Chief Ministers of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, there is certainly some friction between the two heavyweights. Advani's insistence on fighting the polls from Bhopal is seen by many as an effort on the part of the patriarch to endorse Chauha over Modi. As such, if the outfit wins 20 or more seats from the state, Chauhan will certainly yield a lot of influence in the Modi regime in the Centre and may use it to get a better package for his state.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

November 05, 2013

SHIV-RAJ IN MP? - PART I


MADHYA PRADESH 2013: CONGRESS - A DIVIDED HOUSE


Dubbed as the 'Heart' of Incredible India, the mega state of Madhya Pradesh will go to the polls on 25th November later this year. Like in neighboring Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, what makes the elections here extremely important, especially ahead of the big 2014 General elections is that it will witness a direct fight between the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress. While the saffron brigade has been in power in the state for the last decade, the INC is heading a coalition regime at the Center for two consecutive terms. With BJP's Prime Ministerial nominee Narendra Modi and Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi addressing massive rallies here, it can be concluded that the 2013 state elections are been increasingly seen as the semi final just ahead of the Lok Sabha polls which is scheduled for next May. The pundits have given a clear edge to the incumbent CM, predicting that the party may replicate here the success that it saw in Gujarat riding on the popularity of Shivraj Singh Chauhan. However, by putting the dynamic and young Jyotiraditya Scindia in charge of its campaign in the state, the Congress is fighting back and may well pull off the biggest upset of 2013.

While the BJP claims that the development carried by the incumbent government will ensure its victory, what is making life easier for Chauhan is the lack of unity in the Congress camp. Although the party high command - the highest authority in the party has deputed Jyotiraditya Scindia - the son of the former Union Minister and Scindia scion Madhavrao to lead its battle, the feud amongst the prominent leaders of the state has not yet ended and could jeopardize the process of ticket distribution. Ahead of the polls, the Congress has split into two distinct groups, with each trying to out do the other, often resulting in the washing of dirty linen in public. Scindia is said to have teamed up with Union Minister Kamal Nath who is coordinating the campaign. On the other hand, Digvijay Singh - the Rakhi Sawant of Indian politics, who is serving a self imposed 10 year exile from the state after his rout at the hands of Uma Bharati in 2003 is also flexing his muscles, using state party President Kantilal Bhuria and the Leader of Opposition in the incumbent assembly - Ajay Singh as his proxies.

The fighting has become so bitter that it was reported that Diggi Raja was not allowed to attend a press conference being addressed by Scindia. Kantilal Bhuria is said to have had an audience with Sonia Gandhi after his advise over the selection of candidates in his home town of Jhabua was completely ignored. Die hard fans of the INC will point out that INC has never has faced similar situations in the past in other states. In fact, on the eve of the Uttarkhand polls held last year, the party was divided into over five groups, each headed by a Chief Ministerial hopeful. Considering the allegations of corruption against several BJP leaders, most notably the former CM Pokriyal, the Congress messed up the whole thing big time and managed to win just by a single seat in an election which it was speculated to sweep. However the scenario in MP is drastically different. The BJP here is in solid form and reports on the ground indicate that the charisma of Chauhan who was once being touted as the party's contender for the top job in 2014 is working in its favor.

Meanwhile the decision to appoint Scindia junior at the helm of affairs by passing veterans like Bhuria and long time MLA Ajay Singh seems to be a calculated risk. Jyotiraditya's father Madhavrao Scindia who died in a tragic air incident in 2001 was one of the most influential political leader from 1981 until his death besides being the titular chief of the erstwhile princely state of Gwalior. Besides his father's legacy, the party is hoping that his image as a youth leader will be a hit amongst the over 50 lakh young voters. With unemployment remaining high and MP still trailing behind in key areas like development, the youth vote might be the game changer for the Congress. The first list of candidates released last week includes a mix of sitting MLAs, prominent leaders from Youth Congress and finally, in continuation of the party's tradition, kin of several party veterans. Prominent candidates include Ajay Singh (Churat), his deputy in the state legislature Bisahulal Singh (Annupur), Satyadev Katare (Ater), Narayan Tripathi (Maihar), Ravi Joshi (Khargone), Bala Bachchan (Rajpur) and Surajbhan Singh Solanki (Harsud). Digvijay's son Jai Vardhan has filed his papers from Raghogarh without waiting for the Congress to name him. The party is also likely to benefit from large number of BJP rebels who are expected to hurt the saffron outfit's chances.

For more on the Madhya Pradesh Elections 2013, click here (Link)