RIOTS IN UP: ADVANTAGE BJP?

AFTER THE BIHAR SET BACK, CAN THE BJP MAKE A COMEBACK

Courtesy: In.Com

The euphoria over PM Narendra Modi's victory came crashing down after the saffron outfit was beaten 4-6 by the 'Mahaghatbandan' or the Grand Alliance comprising of the RJD, the JD-U and the Congress in Bihar. In spite of sweeping the state in the last Lok Sabha polls, the BJP was humbled in the by-polls with the entire opposition in the state joining hands to successfully stall the Modi juggernaut. With the state going to elections next year, the mega coalition does hold the edge. In Karnataka, where too the party had far exceeded all expectations by winning 17 parliamentary seats in May earlier this year, the saffronists were embarrassed by the INC in its stronghold of Bellary. Besides, the loss of one seat to the Congress in MP also was unexpected. Of course, I will write a more elaborate article on the by-poll results after September 13 when the outcome of the second round of by-elections will be declared.

One of the highlights of the 2014 General Elections was BJP's emphatic win in the mega state of Uttar Pradesh. Having been appointed as the in-charge of UP, former Gujarat Home Minister and Modi's Man Friday Amit Shah got down to task, working out the caste equations, stitching together agreement with smaller parties and organizations and selecting winnable candidates besides giving communal speeches. While the party did extremely well in all the parts of the country, its performance in UP was spectacular; the 71 seats that the BJP won here catapulted it past the 272 mark on its own. Buoyed by the party's fabulous showing in the Lok Sabha 2014 pols, the BJP gone on the offensive, hitting out at the Akhilesh Yadav led government for the deteriorating law and order situation in the state. Amit Shah, now elevated to the position of the BJP president (Link) has his eyes set on the 2017 state assembly polls where the saffronists are hoping to form the next regime in Lucknow after a span of 12 years. The rise in communal tensions following last year's Muzzaffarnagar riots (Link) has only helped their cause. Remember, when the clashes had first broken out, BJP MLAs - Sangeet Som, Suresh Rana and Bharatendu Singh were accused of stoking communal flares. The EC had even rapped Shah for his inflammatory speech at a rally in western UP. A sharp rise in incidents of communal riots over the past few months has put a question mark on the 'secular' credentials of the NDA regime. What has shocked many is the fact that Yogi Adityanath has been put in charge of the by-polls for the 11 assembly segments, scheduled next month. The controversial Gorakhpur MP had earlier in a video, called on the people from the majority community to avenge 'Love Jihad'. With four of these constituencies - Saharanpur Nagar, Bijnor, Thakurwada and Noida situated in Western UP, it remains to be seen if the BJP's attempt at polarization can help it do well.

The other constituencies in UP that will go the by-polls on 13^th September include Sirathu, Balha and Rohaniya in Purvanchal, Hamirpur and Charkhari in Bundelkhand as well as Nighasen and Lucknow - East in Awadh. All the 11 seats fell vacant since the incumbent BJP MLAs were elected to the Lower House of the Parliament. The Samajwadi Party (SP) that swept the polls in 2012 assembly polls is clearly on the back foot. The complete failure of the Akhilesh administration in keeping the law and order situation under control over the last two years has led to an anti-incumbency wave that led to the rout of the Mulayum Singh led outfit in the General Polls. Ahead of the by-polls, the SP chief who has based most of their policies on 'minority appeasement' under the garb of 'Secularism' seems to have become desperate. Nearly three years after he was shown the door, the Yadav strongman was seen sharing the stage with his friend turned foe Amar Singh. This was seen as a move to cut the party's Muslim face Azam Khan to size. In fact, he was even ready to join hands with his bête noire BSP leader Mayawati if Lalu Prasad was ready to mediate terms between the two political rivals. However, the latter turned down the offer since her party never contests by-polls. On the other hand, with the fight expected to be primarily between the BJP and the SP, the Congress is not expected to be a serious contender. Meanwhile, with Mulayum retaining the Azamgarh parliamentary seat, the elections to the seat he vacated - Mainpuri will also be held together with the state by-polls. Retaining his home turf will be a matter of prestige for the former wrestler whereas the BJP would want to pack a powerful punch by causing an upset.

Nine constituencies in PM Narendra Modi's home state of Gujarat will also go to by-elections in the next two weeks. These include Tankara, Khambhalia, Mangrol, Talaja (Saurashtra), Matar, Limkheda, Maninagar, Anand (Central Gujarat) and Deesa (North Gujarat). Having being sworn in as the Chief Minister of the state three months ago, the elections will be a test for Anandiben Patel too. It remains to be seen if she can win the kind of trust that her illustrious predecessor enjoyed amongst the people of the state. The saffron outfit seems to be confident and has put up as many as eight fresh faces. Like in UP, the elections to Vadodara parliamentary seat which was won by Modi will be also be conducted next month. In May, the PM had won this seat with a record of over 3 lakh votes. Up north in Rajasthan, again a state ruled by the BJP, it is another straight fight between the two major national parties. Like in Gujarat, the seats fell vacant after sitting BJP MLAs from Surajgarh, Weir, Nasirabad and Kota - South made the cut to the Lok Sabha. Having painted the state orange twice within a span of six months, CM Vasundhara Raje and her party are expected to sail though easily despite of the INC trying hard to rediscover its winning streak here. In Chhattisgarh though, the fight for Antagarh constituency in the Bastar region may be neck and neck since the grand old party did better than the ruling BJP in this part of the state last year.

In the east, as many as four different states will witness by-elections. Assam which has been hit by communal and racial clashes in the last few months will see polls being conducted in Silchar (Barak Valley), Jamnunamukh and Lakhimpur (Upper Assam). For the saffron camp which bagged 7 of the 14 parliamentary seats from the state this year, it is a good opportunity to perform well and portray itself as a strong contender in 2016. On the other hand, Congress CM Tarun Gogoi needs to first put his own house in order and placate the section of the party unhappy with him so that he could face off the tough challenge posed by the opposition. In the Rangang-Yangang seat in Sikkim, incumbent CM Pawan Kumar Chamling's brother Rup Narayan is in the fray as an independent. The serving CM had won two seats and had vacated this constituency. This has become a major embarrassment for the SDF. In Tripura, the only state where the Communist continue to do well, the CPI(M) is most likely to retain the Manu seat. In Bengal, the TMC is engaged in a four cornered fight with the Lefts, the Congress and the BJP over Basirhat - South and Chowringhee. Though Didi holds the edge, it will be interesting to see if any of the three opposition parties can beat the Trinamool. Moving into the peninsular region, with KCR taking oath as the first CM of Telangana, his parliamentary seat of Medak will see by-polls. While the TRS is expected to win the seat with a huge margin, the INC is looking for revenge for Rao's renegade on his promise of merging his outfit into the Congress. The TDP-BJP alliance too is in the fray. For Nandigama by-elections in Andhra, the contest is between the TDP and the INC after the YSRCP refused to field any candidate. Meanwhile, the date of counting is on 16^th September, three days after the voters cast their votes.

For more on the August-September 2014 By-polls, click here (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: In.Com (Link)

ANDHRA & LOK SABHA 2014

THE BATTLE ROYAL FOR SEEMANDHRA

I started this series - State & Lok Sabha 2014 in the last week of February when I wanted to discuss the effect the creation of Andhra Pradesh would have over the various political parties active in this part of the country. Of course, over the last two and a half months, the whole series has got a very good response which has propelled me to continue writing about the way different states will vote i.e. in my opinion. The learning about the politicians and political parties too has been extremely satisfying; I am sure that this knowledge will come in handy while analyzing elections in the future. Moreover, I did try my hand at predictions and have given the numbers that I believe the different outfits will get this time. Having encompassed 29 states, I think we have come a full circle as we discuss the other half of the erstwhile Andhra Pradesh - the Seemandhra and Rayalseema regions. 

Meanwhile, the state that sent the maximum number of Congress MPs to consecutive UPA regimes at the Centre seems to be voting differently. The Congress, after dividing Andhra seems to be heading for a disaster. The YSR Congress led by Jagan Mohan is on a roll, many believing that the Jagan juggernaut will end up as the single largest player and make it a prized catch for all major coalitions in New Delhi. On the other hand, Chandrababu Naidu too is keen in coming back into the limelight. In a bid to stop the YSRCP from running away with a massive tally, he joined back the NDA after a period of ten years. Former CM Kiran Kumar tried to exonerate himself from taking the blame for the division by resigning and forming the JSP. In a four cornered battle, who has the edge. Lets see if we can answer this question.

ISSUES

(1) Division of the state: No prizes for guessing as to which is the biggest election issue ahead of the Lok Sabha and state polls this time in Andhra. The kind of protests and the demonstrations that were seen both in the Parliament and the streets in Seemandhra tell us that the bifurcation is an extremely emotive subject. After being the fulcrum of two successive UPA regimes, there is no way that the voters in Andhra are going to forgive the Congress for this step which it seems to have taken in haste. One of the big problem area between the two new states is the capital city of Hyderabad. With many people from the coast having business interest in the IT destination, they wanted it to remain a part of Andhra. However, considering that the metropolis is situated right inside Telangana, there was no way this could be achieved. At present though, Hyderabad has been declared as joint capital for 10 years. The three regional players - the TDP, the YSRCP and the JSP have used the issue of bifurcation to train their guns on the INC.

(2) Getting a fair deal for Seemandhra: Whether you like it or not, Telangana is a reality. With this in mind, parties are now trying to get a fair deal - read as 'Special Economic Package', to soothe the nerves of the people in Seemandhra and Rayalseema. Amongst the issues that need to be settled between the new states is water sharing; considering the water disputes between other southern states, this seems to be a tough tasks. Also, Andhra has to get a new capital and the names doing the rounds include Vishakapatnam, Kurnool, Guntur, Tirupati and Vijaywada. Besides, the large number of people from the coast who have settled in Hyderabad need to be protected against bias of all kinds. The Congress tried to use this subject to protect its interest with Sonia Gandhi urging leaders to provide 'Special Status' to Andhra. However, at least the Opinion Polls suggest that the people are not willing to trust the grand old party, at least for the time being.

CONTENDERS

(1) Congress: After that incredible showing in 2009 wherein the party won 33 out of the 42 seats in AP, things started to go wrong for it after the tragic death of its charismatic CM Y S Rajashekar Reddy in a helicopter crash in September 2009. The party underestimated his son and Kadappa MP Jagan Mohan who went ahead with his yatra in spite of the opposition from the all high command. As the INC placed Rosaiah and then Kiran Kumar Reddy at the helm of affairs, Jagan launched the YSRCP. While the state government did manage to complete its full term, it lost a series of by elections to the newly launched regional outfit although Jagan was in the jail for over an year on charges of disproportionate assets. 

Fearing a blank here, the Congress devised a new strategy. It was to go ahead and form Telangana and earn the good will of the people there. Next, it hoped that the TRS would merge into it to further improve its prospects in the 17 parliamentary seats there. Also, it was hopeful that it could convince Jagan to join the UPA after the results were announced. Thus it could potentially still end up with 20 to 25 seats. However, in politics things don't go the way you want it to and the 'grand plan' flopped. The TRS refused to merge into the Congress whereas YSRCP too is not very keen to be a part of the UPA considering the anger against the INC on the ground. Meanwhile, it seems to be that the BJP has benefited from the fiasco at the expense of its rival. It has allied with the TDP and is also known to be wooing KCR's regional outfit in Telangana. 

In the run up to the polls, as many as nine sitting MPs from the region have jumped ship to other parties fearing that an association with the INC could potentially end their political careers. Even the incumbent CM Kiran Kumar Reddy has quit the Congress to float a new party. As such, film star Chiranjeevi is leading the party's election campaign here. Five Union Minister - K.C. Deo (Araku), Killi Krupa Rani (Srikakulam), M.M. Pallam Raju (Kakinada), Panabaka Lakshmi (Bapatla) and Kotla Jayasuryaprakash Reddy (Kurnool) and few new faces including social worker Thota Vijayalakshmi (Anakapalle) and MLC Vakati Narayana Reddy (Nellore) have been given tickets.

(2) National Democratic Alliance (NDA): After being sidelined in the state, first by YSR and subsequently by his son, the Telugu Desam party (TDP) chief Chandrababu Naidu is trying hard to make a strong comeback. It was believed that the YSRCP was leading the TDP in the opposition to the formation of Telanagana. However, the recently declared results in the local elections indicate that Naidu holds the edge. Moreover, after rejoining the NDA last month, there could be a consolidation of votes in case the much hyped 'Modi wave' does work in this part of the country. Even as the two parties came together to finalize the seat sharing arrangements, there were protests staged by cadre of both outfits. One week into the alliance, there was trouble again with TDP accusing the BJP of fielding weak candidates in Andhra. With the saffron party conceding few more seats to the regional player, things were finally sorted out. The TDP will contest 17 parliamentary seats here and its nominees include Ramesh Rathod (Adilabad), K Madan Mohan Rao (Zahirabad) and Banoth Mohan Lal (Mahbubabad). The party has given tickets to about three industrialists - Rayapati Sambasiva Rao (Narasaraopet), Galla Jayadev (Guntur) and Nama Nageswara Rao (Khammam).

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was 'hand-in-gloves' with the Congress during the formation of Telangana. Three months down the line while the former struggles in its old fortress, the latter is trying to put up a strong fight. As said earlier, the saffronists are expecting that the Modi wave will help it do well even in those states where it was never a strong player in the past. The tie-up with former ally - the TDP has further helped their cause. In fact, the importance of this alliance for the NDA as a whole can be deduced from the fact that the national party even gave up some of its assembly seats just to please the sulking Naidu. The nominees include party president Dr. K Haribabu (Vishakapatnam), former Union Minister Purandeshwari (Rajmpeta) who quit the Congress recently, Gokaraju Ganga Raju (Narsaraopur) and Karumanchi Jayaram (Tirupati).

Power star Pawan Kalyan too has pledged his support to the NDA in the run up to the 2014 General Polls in spite of the fact that his brother Chiranjeevi is with the Congress. It was earlier believed that he was to launch a political party to fight for the unity of the state. Meanwhile, he has been a star campaigner for the NDA alliance in Andhra as well as neighboring Karnataka.

(3) Y S R Congress Party (YSRCP): After the Congress refused to anoint him as the CM of Andhra Pradesh, Jagan Mohan Reddy left the grand old party to form the YSRCP to en cash on the emotions of the people who were saddened by the tragic death of his extremely popular father. Of course, the Congress tried its best to nip the newly formed outfit in the bud. While the junior Reddy was put behind the bars for 16 months, he fought back, winning by-election after by-election at the expense of Congress. The Union government's decision to split Andhra helped him further expand his party's reach in newer areas. Many were expecting the Jagan juggernaut to sweep the state, especially after a host of leaders from the INC joined him. However, the TDP-BJP pre-poll alliance has to some extent, stemmed the YSRCP wave in the coast. The results of the recently concluded local polls came in as a shocker for the party. Meanwhile, the YSRCP's candidates for Lok Sabha 2014 include Jagan's mother Y S Vijayamma (Vishakapatnam), his cousin Y S Avinash Reddy (Kadappa), industrialist Ayodhya Ramireddy (Narsaraopur) and former bureaucrat Varaprasad Rao Velagapalli (Tirupati).

(4) Jai Samaikyandhra Party (JSP): After being in power for over three years, Kiran Kumar Reddy - the last CM of a united Andhra left the Congress to form the JSP. However, the question is was it too late. I mean, Reddy continued to be in power even days before the Parliament went ahead with the division of the state. As such, many people still view the former CM to be one of the persons who did not do much to prevent the bifurcation. Moreover, many of his former cabinet colleagues who had assured Kiran of their support have now gone back on their word. Apart from him, the JSP lacks any face who can help them win any votes.

PAST PERFORMANCES

Finding the exact results for Seemandhra and Rayalseema, similar to the exercise I did for Telangana (Link) is difficult and time consuming. However, I will give a broad sense of how the regions of coastal Andhra and Rayalseema voted over the last five General Elections. In 1996, the TDP and the Congress shared the spoils almost equally in this part of the state. Two years later though, the grand old party held the upper hand. In the following year, it was Naidu who did did well. Over the last two elections, it has been the Congress led by the late CM Y S Rajashekar Reddy which propelled the UPA at the Centre.

MY PREDICTIONS

The TDP-BJP alliance seems to have take been able to take some steam off Jagan's campaign which was going pretty strong till the end of March. I believe that the coalition in a four cornered contest will help the NDA gain an edge over the others. In spite of this, YSR Congress will still give it a tough fought. The Congress, I think will be wiped out whereas the Jai Samaikyandhra Party (JSP) will also end up with a big zero.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	NDA (TDP + BJP)	12-16
2	YSR Congress	10-14
3	Congress	0-1
4	Jai Samaikyandhra Party (JSP)	0

WATCH OUT

(1) The 2014 state elections: Though Andhra will go to the polls as a single entity, the new state of Telangana will be carved out on 2^nd June. Now that the split is a reality, the question will be as to who will become the first Chief Minister of Seemandhra post the division. With anger simmering against the Congress, the race is clearly between Jagan Mohan Reddy and Chandrababu Naidu. While the YSRCP chief has momentum on his side, following the sting of victories in several by-elections, the TDP helped its cause by allying with the BJP.

(2) Congress - a sinking ship: The excellent show in Andhra Pradesh was responsible for the formation of two Congress led UPA regimes in 2004 and 2009. However, post the death of YSR, the revolt of his son Jagan and the furor over the creation of Telangana is set to wipe out the party in this part of the country. The INC has just one leader here - film star Chiranjeevi but with emotions running high, it is unlikely that he will have any impact on the polls. Will the grand old party make a comeback? How many years will it take for the Congress to win back the confidence of the people? Most importantly, who will lead the INC in Andhra?

(3) Naidu makes a comeback? The TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu was once the poster boy in the southern state, credited for the rise of capital Hyderabad as one of the major IT destinations in the country. However, after two successive victories, the TDP was wiped off in 2004 state and Lok Sabha polls which also marked the rise of the Y S Rajashekar Reddy. Naidu tried to put the blame on the BJP as he broke off from the NDA. However, the trend continued in 2009 when, in spite of the grand alliance, Naidu was routed, yet again. Even in the run up to 2014, it was believed that Reddy's son Jagan was becoming the most prominent leader of the Seemandhra region. However, the alliance with the BJP may help Naidu climb the ladder and regain his lost political status.

(4) Which way will Jagan go? All Opinion Polls are predicting the YSRCP to win in excess of 10 seats. Now that makes Jagan Mohan one of the most sought after political ally post May 16 in case both the major formations fall short of majority. In fact, even the YSRCP chief has kept all his options open. Earlier, he had claimed that he did not have any problems in joining hands with the NDA led by Modi. Also, he may even forget the treatment meted out to him by Congress post the death of his father and support the UPA. Moreover, supporting the Third Front will be much more easy, though the possibilities of such a coalition ruling the country is almost negligible.

(5) The future of Kiran Kumar Reddy and the JSP: It is difficult to predict as to who will finish as the biggest party in Andhra - the TDP-BJP combine or the YSRCP but there is unanimous agreement on the fact that the JSP is not a challenger at all. In fact, many feel that in spite of resigning from the Congress and floating a new outfit, Reddy is still believed by many to be ineffective in adverting the division of the state. If the former CM does as badly as expected, it will be interesting to see what his next move will be. Will he join either YSRCP or the TDP? May be, he may walk back into the Congress.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

TELANGANA & LOK SABHA 2014

WHO GAINS AND WHO LOSES OUT IN TELANGANA?

K Chandrashekar Rao on fast-unto-death for Telangana in December 2009

It does not matter if you like it or not. The reality is that after both houses passed the Andhra Pradesh Re-organization Bill, Telangana is all set to become the 29^th state of the Indian Union. A struggle that began about seven decades ago and which was further strengthened by years of neglect has finally succeeded. In spite of protests in Seemandhra and the ruckus inside the Parliament, the government and the Opposition came together in a move dubbed by detractors as 'match-fixing' to allow the contentious bill to pass through. Though Hyderabad is to be the joint capital for the next ten years, the metropolis which is considered to be the pride of the Telugu people and is the bone of contention between the two sides will cease to exist within the territorial extent of Andhra. With the elections both at the Center and in the states, namely Andhra and Telangana due in the next two months, this move will have a direct impact on how the masses vote. Here is a look at the various political parties and how their fortunes will be affected with the division of southern India's largest state. Also with this post, I am starting a new series on the blog where I will analyze each state with respect to the Lok Sabha polls of 2014.

ISSUES

(1) Statehood for Telangana: No prizes for guessing this. The creation of Telangana is of course going to be the sole issue this election season in this part of the country, that is if there are no drastic developments in the run up to the polls. The people of this region have demanded a separate state for decades, citing step-motherly treatment meted out by the rest of Andhra. While Hyderabad, located deep in the heart of this area is one of the most developed cities in the country, the rest of the yet to be born state has lagged far behind. The statehood for Telangana has been a crucial poll subject for long, except for the time when Y S Rajshekar Reddy was the Chief Minister. Considering that hundreds of people have lost their lives over this rather emotional topic, it is going to dominate the political situation here for months, if not years. The challenge for the next government, both in New Delhi and in Hyderabad will be to implement development schemes so as to nurture the state in its early days. 

(2) The TRS-Congress pact: Another key issue which could decide the outcome will be the proposed TRS-Congress merger/pre-poll alliance. Rao's outfit has been at the forefront of the agitation for the past decade whereas the Congress' role in passing of the bill has been appreciated by the people on the ground. As such, if they join hands, they are expected to sweep an overwhelming majority of the seventeen seats from here. The Congress wants Rao's outfit to merge with it, whereas the latter does not want to commit, preferring to keep his options open.

CONTENDERS

(1) Telangana Rashtriya Samiti: The TRS formed by K Chandrashekar Rao in 2004 after he parted ways with Chandrababu Naidu to fight for Telangana statehood is expected to gain heavily from this development. Though it fared badly in the 2009 General elections, KCR's 'fast-unto-death' later that year brought the attention of the entire nation to this issue. The UPA II government buckled under pressure and announced the initiation of the process to bifurcate Andhra, something that it would repent later. There is no doubt that today, KCR is the biggest political leader in the new state. The big question however, is whether he should merge his outfit into the Congress or become a partner in the UPA. It is believed that there was an understanding between the INC and TRS that the latter would merge into the former as and when Telangana is formed. While the Congress has kept its promise, Rao is hesitant to keep his word on the merger. Though it is sure that such an alliance will for sure sweep the newly carved state, KCR's knows that in all likelihood, the UPA will not win a third state term. Moreover, if the NDA crosses the 200 mark and needs allies to stake a claim to form the next government, the TRS could join it (like it did in 2009) and bargain heavily for a special economic package for the state of Telangana. Remember, the BJP's support was crucial in passing the Bill in both Houses of the Parliament.

(2) Congress: In several parts of the soon to be created state, Sonia Gandhi is being referred to as the 'Mother of Telangana' as she has ensured that the UPA kept the promise it had made in 2004, even if the announcement came months prior to the General elections. The grand old party has indeed taken a huge gamble. By giving Telangana it has ruled itself out of the race in 25 seats in Andhra, the state that sent the maximum number of Congress MPs in the last two Lok Sabhas. To be frank, the party did not have a choice. Jaganmohan Reddy has virtually wiped it out of the Rayalseema and Seemanadhra regions whereas the TDP too is expected to improve its performance. The challenge before the Congress is to ensure that the TRS mergers into it. Sadly for it, KCR is a shrewd politician. If he decides to retain his outfit's independence, there is a threat that he may join hands with the BJP led NDA in the future. That would be a disaster and will allow the saffron outfit to make a strong mark in Telangana besides helping it clinch the advantage in the race to 272 in the post poll scenario. Considering the high stakes, one can expect the Congress to lobby hard in the next few days to make sure that Rao fights under its colors.

(3) All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen: In my opinion after the TRS and the Congress, the third party which will be affected by the creation of the new state is the AIMIM. The party has been representing the Hyderabad seat in the Lok Sabha since 1984 largely due to its loyal Muslim vote bank. However, post the recent developments, the two time MP and party president Asaduddin Owaisi may be feeling a bit jittery. In case the Telangana sentiments are high, the voters may rise above communal lines and may end up overlooking the AIMIM. However, Modi's nomination for the post of the Prime Minister by the NDA will be one issue which Owaisi may raise to whip up religious sentiments and consolidate the minority votes.

(4) BJP: The saffron party's situation in southern India continues to be pathetic, more so after its rout in Karnataka assembly polls. However, in a bid to give itself a better chance at least in Telangana, the party backed the bill introduced by the Congress in the Parliament, hoping to create some momentum in its favor. Like Sonia Gandhi, Sushma Swaraj too has won the good will of the people from this part of the country. Giving her a ticket from her will be a bold move and may well pay off. At least, she should figure prominently in the BJP's election campaign here. On the issue of the merger of the TRS into the Congress, the party will be keeping its fingers crossed. Also, in case the deal fails, the party will look at Rao as a potential ally in the future and may lure him with a special economic package for the new state.

The Telugu Desum Party (TDP) and the YSR Congress are expected to draw a blank here in case they contest as they batted for the 'United Andhra' movement. The Communist and other constituents of the Third Front too do not have any substantial presence here which means they too will not open their accounts.

PAST RESULTS

Here is a look at how the 17 seats that will form a part of Telangana have voted in the last five Lok Sabha polls. Please note that during these elections, the region was still a part of Andhra Pradesh. Also, over the years, the delimitation exercise has made it difficult to get accurate results in all constituencies. In 1996, the Congress held a slight upper hand in the region whereas in the next election it was the TDP that did well. The allies in the NDA i.e. Telugu Desum and the BJP swept the region in spite of the fact that they did not have a pre-poll arrangement. YSR's campaigning and the alliance with the TRS helped the UPA do well across Andhra in 2004 and Telangana was no exception. The superlative performance in the state catapulted the Congress beyond 150 and helped them to a surprise victory at the Center. In 2009, in spite of the break-up with KCR, the Congress led by Rajashekar Reddy routed all Opposition in the state. A hallmark of this victory was that KCR's outfit was reduced to a paltry number of two even as the Congress went past 200, again with Andhra contributing the maximum number of MPs to UPA II.

No.	Constituency	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
01	Adilabad	TDP	TRS	TDP	TDP	TDP
02	Peddapalli	INC	INC	TDP	TDP	INC
03	Karimnagar	INC	TRS	BJP	BJP	INC
04	Nizamabad	INC	INC	TDP	TDP	INC
05	Zahirabad	INC	-	-	-	-
06	Medak	TRS	TRS	BJP	INC	INC
07	Malkajgiri	INC	-	-	-	-
08	Secunderabad	INC	INC	BJP	BJP	INC
09	Hyderabad	AIMIM	AIMIM	AIMIM	AIMIM	AIMIM
10	Chevella	INC	-	-	-	-
11	Mahabubnagar	TRS	INC	BJP	JD	INC
12	Nagarkurnool	INC	TDP	TDP	INC	TDP
13	Nalgonda	INC	CPI	TDP	CPI	CPI
14	Bhongir	INC	-	-	-	-
15	Warangal	INC	TRS	TDP	TDP	TDP
16	Mahabubabad	INC	-	-	-	-
17	Khamman	TDP	INC	INC	INC	CPM

(1) Information on the results of the five constituencies - Zahirabad, Malkajgiri, Chevella, Bhongir and Mahabubabad are not availabale on the Internet.

(2) CPI: Communist Party of India
CPM: Communist Party of India (Marxist)
JD: Janata Dal

MY PREDICTIONS

I am sticking my neck out to make some predictions ahead of the General Elections. Of course, the point to note here is that I have not taken the INC-TRS merger or pre-poll alliance into account since it has not been announced as yet. As mentioned earlier, Chandrashekar Rao and the TRS may well take about half of the seats from the new state whereas the Congress too may do well. I expect the BJP to end its drought here and the AIMIM to retain its stronghold of Hyderabad. Note, I have just relied on my understanding and my gut feeling to come to these numbers.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS)	6-10
2	Congress (INC)	4-8
3	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	0-2
4	All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM)	0-1
5	Others (YSR Congress/TDP/CPI/CPM)	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) Rise of the Rao Dynasty: It will be interesting to see whether Chandrashekar Rao contests a Lok Sabha seat or prefers to fight the elections to the state assembly, hoping to become the first CM of the state for which he went without food for over 10 days. In that case, it is pretty likely that his son K T Rama Rao, the MLA from Sircilla may lead the party in the Parliament. His daughter, K Kavita who had courted arrest several times during the T agitations is likely to jump into the electoral fray this year. His nephew Harish is the MLA from Siddipet. Though there are various speculations over the future of the TRS, what is clear is that the Raos are set to become the first family of Telangana. 

(2) The future of the TRS: Will he or won't he merge into the Congress? This is the question that is dominating all political discussions in the region. It is believed that most of the leaders in the TRS are against merging the party into the Congress. Even KCR would like to retain his party's identity, aware that he will be made to dance to the High Command's tune in case he joins the INC. Besides, staying independent leaves the option of allying with the NDA in the future open. Considering that his party does not have strong presence in most parts of the soon to be formed state, Rao knows that he may need the help of the grand old party to form a government in Hyderabad. Resisting the Congress in such a situation will be extremely difficult. On the other hand, merging into the Congress may lead to a vertical split int the outfit, with many leaders opting out.

(3) The future of the BJP in Telangana: Much like the Congress, the BJP took a gamble by supporting the T Bill in the Parliament. While the Congress was looking at and may even get some immediate gains in 2014, for the the saffron outfit, it is a long term investment. By lending its support to the creation of the new state, the party has given itself a strong platform which it can use to garner votes. Though the it may not win even a single seat here in this General Elections, do not be surprised if it does open its account in the new legislative assembly. Secondly, the BJP will be closely watching the developments regarding the merger of the TRS into the Congress. If the merger happens, many in the TRS may jump the boat and the only viable option for them will be the BJP. In case, the deal falls through, Modi may woo Rao with a multi-crore package for Telangana.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

THE YEAR THAT WAS 2009 - PART I

SINGH IS KING, YET AGAIN

The biggest spectacle of the year 2009 was, beyond any doubt, the elections to the 15th Lok Sabha. The world's largest democracy elected its representatives to the Lower House of the Parliament between 16th April, 2009 and 13th May, 2009 with the aid of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) for the second time in a row. In spite of terror threats and calls for electoral boycott by the Maoists in many places, the Indian voters defied all odds and came out in large numbers to participate in an election which has been seen by many analyst as the fairest national elections to be held in the birthplace of democracy.

The trio of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi and youth icon Rahul Gandhi led the Indian National Congress and its allies to a remarkable electoral victory. With this victory, Manmohan Singh, who in 2004 became India's first Sikh Prime Minister also became the the first PM after Pandit Nehru to be re-elected for a consecutive term after completing a full 5 year term in office. The National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREG), the loan waiver to farmers coupled by the Mr. Clean image of Singh and the goodwill of Sonia meant that the Congress crossed the 200 mark on its own and the UPA fell just short of the half way mark.

Rahul Gandhi led the revival of the Congress in Uttar Pradesh where the party managed to win as many as 21 parliamentary seats and finished second in a four way electoral battle. The impressive figures of the Congress in UP dished all dreams of BSP supremo Mayawati to become the first Dalit PM of India. The Congress wave swept the key state of Andhra Pradesh in both, the state and the national elections. Charismatic CM Y S Rajashekar Reddy led the party to a comfortable majority in the Vidhan Soudha as he routed the TDP-TRS alliance and saw off the threat posed by Chiranjeevi's PRP. In fact, the party won 33 out of the 42 seats to the Lok Sabha from the state. The INC whitewashed the opposition in Delhi and Uttarakhand and won all but one seat in Haryana. Other states where the party outperformed all expectations included Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Punjab.

Not only the Congress but even its allies in the UPA had a lot to cheer for in these polls. Mamata Bannerjee achieved the impossible as she finally managed to breach the Left bastion of West Bengal. Didi won 19 seats and emerged as the second largest party in the ruling coalition. Also, beating all odds, the DMK got 18 seats in Tamil Nadu as Jayalalitha's AIADMK mustered just 9 seats in spite of its claims to carve a separate nation for Sri Lankan Tamils. However Sharad Pawar, who was seen as a potential Prime Ministerial candidate prior to the polls will be certainly disappointed as the NCP could send only 9 MPs to the Parliament.

The BJP's electoral slogan of 'Kushal Neta, Nirnayak Sarkar' found no takers as the party was reduced to a paltry 116 seats at the national level. The struggle for power within the party and lack of proper political organization before the elections meant that Lal Krishna Advani's last shot for the top spot ended in failure. Also the move to project Narendra Modi as the next PM candidate and calling Singh as a weak PM backfired for the party. However the real villain for the party was the Gandhi within their own ranks. Varun Gandhi's infamous communal speech at Pilibhit won him his constituency but ended up consolidating the Muslim vote in UP in the favour of the Congress. Although the BJP did well in Karnataka, Jharkhand, Bihar, Chattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh, its performance in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Assam was much below expectations. Besides, the party ended up in the fourth spot in the key state of Uttar Pradesh.

The only NDA leader who did well in the 2009 election was Nitish Kumar, the CM of Bihar. He managed to wipe off all opposition in the state and led the NDA to victory in 32 constituencies out of the total 40. BJP's oldest ally, the Shiv Sena managed to muster only 11 seats as its ideology was completely hijacked by Raj Thackeray's MNS. In fact Raj came back to haunt the BJP-SS combine and split the Marathi votes, thereby helping the Congress-NCP coalition to take Maharashtra for the third time in a row.

The biggest losers of these elections were the Left Parties. With their impregnable forts of Kerala and West Bengal being stormed, the Red brigade could only get 24 seats in these elections, a slump of 25 from the 59 seats they won the last time. Ironically for them, the move to withdraw support to the previous UPA government had clearly boomeranged on them. While the performance of other constituents of the Third Front like the BSP, TDP and AIADMK was pretty much average, the star among the Third Front leaders was Naveen Patnaik. The Orissa CM who dumped the NDA over the Left managed to win as many as 14 seats on his own and also came into power with a spectacular two-thirds majority in the state assembly.

The Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Lok Janshakti Party failed to reach sharing agreements with the Congress and decided to form a new front, hoping to be kingmakers after the election. Despite announcing support for the UPA, they only won 27 seats with SP winning only 20 odd seats, RJD reduced to only 4 and LJP failing to open its account.

On 22nd May, 2009, Manmohan Singh was sworn in as the Prime Minister at the Ashoka Hall of Rashtrapati Bhavan with the support of 322 members. As per convention, on 18th May, he had already submitted his resignation as the Prime Minister to President Pratibha Patil with a recommendation to dissolve the Council of Ministers. Former Finance Minister, P C Chidambaram was made the Home Minister whereas former Home Minister, Pranab Da was given the charge of the Finance Ministry. The former CM of Karnataka, S M Krishna was sworn in as the MEA , Veerappa Moily was given the charge of Law Ministry and Defense went to A K Anthony. Long time Congress loyalists, Anand Sharma (Commerce and Industry), Kapil Sibal (HRD), Murli Deora (Petroleum), Kamal Nath (Road) and Ghulam Nabi Azad (Power) were also accommodated in the cabinet. Among the allies, Mamata got the coveted Railway Ministry, Sharad Pawar retained the Agriculture Ministry and the DMK is represented by Azaghiri, A. Raja and Dayanidhi Maran among others.

The re-election of the UPA government to a second term is a clear indication of the fact that the Indian voter has matured over the years, in the sense that incumbency is no longer a big election issue if the people with power can deliver the goods. The results of the 15th Lok Sabha have re-affirmed the fact that while Hindutva and minority appeasement continue to be used by political parties as electoral issues, the core issue still remains - Development or as it is more commonly referred to in Indian politics as 'Roti, Kapda aur Makan'.

CHAOS WITHIN THE BJP

The BJP decided to confront the Manmohan Singh government on the issues of Governance, Development and Security as a part of its strategy to come back into power after five years of warming the Opposition benches. The electoral campaign of the saffron outfit projected its Prime Ministerial candidate, L K Advani as a strong leader who would make India safer if elected to power and condemned Singh as 'The Weakest Prime Minister in Indian History'.

The BJP's campaign faced its biggest pre-election controversy when the EC directed the District Magistrate of Pilibhit to lodge a criminal case against the BJP's candidate Varun Gandhi for his inflammatory speech against Muslims made on March 7, 2009. Varun pleaded not guilty and claimed that the voice in the tapes were not his. After reviewing the incident, the EC found Gandhi guilty of violating the model code of conduct by creating feeling of enmity and hatred between different communities and issued a recommendation the BJP to drop him from their list of candidates. However, the saffron outfit came out in support of Varun. Meanwhile the Mayawati government in Uttar Pradesh slapped the National Security Act (NSA) against the young leader and put him behind bars. Later the Supreme Court asked the UP government to revoke the Act.

Although Varun's outburst won him his constituency, it ended up polarizing the Muslim vote in favour of the Congress. The Congress won 200 odd seats in the elections with an amazing 21 seats coming from Uttar Pradesh. Also the party's move to counter the Rahul Gandhi factor by portraying Gujarat CM Narendra Modi as the next PM candidate was widely rejected by the electorate around the country. The BJP's tally of 116 seats in the Lower House presented a very sorry picture. Almost immediately, the non-RSS leaders of the party like Yashwant Sinha, Jaswant Singh and Arun Shourie called on the then president Rajnath Singh, a RSS favorite, to take moral responsibility for the electoral diaster and resign from his post.

The Chintan Baitak session of the BJP held in Shimla to asses the party’s debacle in the general elections and to strengthen its organization in the wake of the forthcoming state elections started off with a bang as senior party leader and former cabinet minister Jaswant Singh was expelled from the party. The decision came in the wake of the views expressed by Singh in his new book Jinnah : India, Independence and Partition in which he has lauded Mohammed Ali Jinnah and has blamed Nehru and Sardar Patel for India’s partition. 

Also, Rajnath Singh insisted on former Rajasthan CM Vasundararaje Scindia and the then CM of Uttarakhand, B C Khanduri to take responsibility for the party's rout in their respective states while he continued to remain in the office. Although, Khanduri agreed to the decision after some flip flops, Scindia refused to budge even as party veteran Advani was called in to mediate an amicable solution. Among Raje's demands include making her a general secretary at the national level and having an election to appoint the next Leader of Opposition in the Rajasthan Assembly, which by default, will be a Raje loyalist owing to the clout that the former royal holds in Rajsthan unit of the BJP.

Then, to make matters worse, the Liberhan Commission, the longest running inquiry by the Indian government submitted its report on the Demolition of the disputed site of Babri Masjid in Ayodhya after 48 extensions and 17 long years of running, to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. In November 2009, a day after a newspaper published the allegedly leaked contents of the report, the report was tabled in the Indian parliament by the Home Minister Chidambaram. Kalyan Singh, who was the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh during the mosque’s demolition, has come in for harsh criticism in the report. He is accused of posting bureaucrats and police officers who would stay silent during the mosque’s demolition in Ayodhya. Indicting the BJP government in Uttar Pradesh, the one-man commission said in its report: "Kalyan Singh's government was the essential component needed by the Sangh Parivar for its purposes. Kalyan Singh lived up to the expectations of the Parivar". Uma Bharti, Govindacharya and Shanker Singh Vaghela, all of whom were members of the BJP then, are held primarily responsible for the destruction of the mosque and the report says that they could have prevented the assault. Senior BJP leaders Atal Behari Vajpayee, Lal Krishna Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi are called 'pseudo-moderates'. The report holds them intellectually and ideologically responsible for the mosque’s destruction.

Like the National elections, the party's performance in the state elections was also far from satisfactory. The party won only 2 assembly seats in Andhra Pradesh, both coming from the Telangana region. In spite of accusing the Congress led governments at the Centre and in Maharashtra of being soft on terror, the BJP-SS alliance could not prevent the Cong-NCP alliance from winning a straight third term owing to the split in the Sena's traditional Marathi votes in the favour of the Raj Thackeray led MNS. The party finished fourth in the fight for power in Haryana as it won an insignificant 4 seats. When Orissa CM, Navin Patnaik broke way from the NDA many inside the party felt that he would require the help of the BJP to retain his seat as the CM of the state. However, in a triangular contest held in Orissa, Navin shocked everyone as he led the BJD-NCP-Left alliance to a two-thirds majority.

In December the saffron party came together to formally elect a new president in a bid to revive the party's fortune. In a move that clearly emphasized the sway that RSS holds in the BJP, its chief Mohan Bhagwat declared that the next president would be 'someone not from Delhi', a clear indication that he didn't want Advani aides like Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Venkaiah Naidu and Anant Kumar to hold the top job. Later, the BJP's Maharashtra chief, Nitin Gadkari succeeded Rajnath Singh as the President. Also, an era in Indian politics came to an end as Lal Krishna Advani stepped down as the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha and the vacated post went to close aide Sushma Swaraj.

The new president has a herculean task at his hand. The BJP has to clearly shun its pro Hindutva ideology and project itself as an inclusive party that stands for the development of all sections. Besides keeping the various warring factions at bay, he will have to develop a significant support base for the party amongst the youth. Also focus needs to be given to strengthen the part in the BIMARU states, especially UP where the party's fortunes have declined over the years.

INFLATION AND RECESSION HIT THE AAM AADMI

Although Prime Minister Manmohan Singh managed to lead the UPA into a second consecutive term, the principal opposition groups, namely the NDA and the Left Front managed to corner his government over the issue of soaring prices. A delayed monsoon added fuel to the fire as prices of essential commodities skyrocketed. Gradually the prices of daily products like sugar, vegetables and pulses reached an all time high level. The government tried to control the escalating prices by cracking down on hoarders and subsidizing essential products for the poor. Probably what did more damage to the government were the remarks expressed by many of Union ministers who claimed that the factors that led to price rise were beyond the control of the Centre. This clearly showed the inability and in many ways the lack of determination on the part of the government to get this situation under its control. The food price inflation in India soared to decade's highest level of 19.95 per cent in the first week of December.
While the poor were struggling to make their ends meet, the rich were feeling the heat of the Global meltdown. In 2009, the US economy was in recession, the biggest since the ‘Great Depression’ of 1929, and its tremors were also felt across the world markets, both big and small. The Indian outsourcing industry, which at then employed over 2 million people and is the principal driving force behind urbanization in India, was dealt a severe blow. Cutbacks, fewer benefits and job losses became the order of the day as even eminent companies struggled to remain afloat.

The Depression has, in many ways separated the extraordinary from the mediocre. As the world emerged from the clout of the recession, the manner in which the economies of the Asia-Pacific region avoided recession was appreciated all over the world. In fact, India recorded a 7.9 per cent rise in the GDP, thereby meeting market expectations and the stock market responded positively.

RED TERROR STRIKES

The year 2009 witnessed the outlawed Maoist take on an more aggressive approach towards the Indian Government. The Taliban style execution of Francis Induwar, Special Branch Inspector on 30th September was one of the innumerable acts of violence committed by them in the bygone year. The Naxals had earlier said that they would free Induwar if the government released Kobad Ghandy, Chattradhar Mahato, and Chandra Bhushan Yadav, three key Maoist leaders captured by security agencies from different parts of the country. Days after the government rejected this proposed swap, the Inspector's body was found on the Ranchi-Jamshedpur Highway. His head had been severed from his body. Near the Inspector's body, a note by the Naxals, attributing his death to 'police repression'. Among Induwar's colleagues, there's mourning mixed with anger. "We are ready to do our duty, but we need protection. In this atmosphere, how can we carry on working?" asked Ramsarekh Singh, Head, Jharkhand Police Association.

Naxalites struck across Jharkhand and Bihar a day before the states went to polls in the second phase of Lok Sabha elections. On 22nd April, the Naxals seized the Gomo-Mogulsarai BDM train near Hehegarha railway station at about 7:30 am and released it at 11:39 hours without harming any of the passengers. The train, with nine coaches, was packed to capacity with about 700 passengers on board and people even standing on the foot boards of the coaches," Railway PRO in Dhanbad, Amerendra Das said. As a move to secure the release of their leader Chattradhar Mahato, the People's Committee on Police Atrocities (PCPA) held hostage the Delhi bound, Bhubaneshwer Rajdhani Express in Midnapore, West Bengal on 27th October, 2009. Mahato who had been spearheading the agitation against alleged police atrocities, was nabbed from the Pirka region, near Lalgarh village. Although the train was later released, the manner in which the Naxals committed this offense brought to light the fact that Red Terror had become India's topmost internal security concern.

In an earlier development, the police and security forces in Lalgarh, Paschim Medinipur, West Bengal organized an anti-naxal operation to restore law and order in the area and flush out the Maoists, whom the government accused of inciting the tribals. The area of operation covered 18 police stations in the three Maoist affected districts of Paschim Medinipur, Bankura and Purulia. After some initial resistance from the Maoist side, the security forces were able to free the region from the rebels, atleast for the time being. Although the abortive bid to net elusive Maoist leader Kishenji in Lalgarh did not bear fruits, a senior police officer said several important materials were later seized and the operation was not a total failure.

As of 2009, Naxalites are active across approximately 220 districts in several states of India accounting for about 40 percent of India's geographical area. They are especially concentrated in an area known as the 'Red corridor', where they control 92,000 square kilometers. According to India's intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), 20,000 armed cadre Naxalites were operating apart from 50,000 regular cadres working in their various mass organizations and millions of sympathizers, and their growing influence prompted Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to declare them as the most serious internal threat to India's national security. The Naxalites are opposed by virtually all mainstream Indian political groups. In February 2009, Central government announced its plans for simultaneous, co-ordinated counter-operations in all Left-wing extremism-hit states like Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal, to plug all possible escape routes of Naxalites. As a result, there have been fewer casualties than in previous years, and the Naxalites have not been able to expand their influence. 

FLOODS PARALYZE SOUTH INDIA

Early October, 2009 saw the heavy floods inundate states of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh after days of torrential rains. Atleast 269 people lost their lives in floods that are said to be the most devastrating in the last century, in these parts of the country. Over 13 lakh people were affected in five districts of Andhra Pradesh alone following unprecedented floods in Krishna river basin. The floods isolated 350 villages, leaving millions homeless. Entire Kurnool city was surrounded by 10 feet water for nearly 3 days.

In Karnataka damage to crops and property is estimated to be in the region of Rs 10,000 crore. For the first time in 60 years that the perennially drought-prone districts of north Karnataka saw such flood fury. The worst affected by the downpour and floods were parts of Bijapur, Gulbarga and Raichur districts in Northern parts of the state through which flow the rivers Krishna and Tungabhadra along with their tributaries.

Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh governments started rescue and relief work on war footing with the help of the defence forces. The tales of people displaced by the massive flooding are heart-rending."Our entire village is under water. Even our relatives and friends have the same problem. We have no clue what to do," said one. 

SWINE FLU PANDEMIC

Soon after the outbreak of H1N1 virus in the United States and Mexico in March, the Government of India started screening people coming from the affected countries at airports for swine flu symptoms. The first case of the flu in India was found on the Hyderabad airport on 13th May, when a man traveling from US to India was found H1N1 positive. Subsequently, more confirmed cases were reported and as the rate of transmission of the flu increased in the beginning of August, with the first death due to swine flu in India in Pune, panic began to spread.

The only known drug to work against H1N1 (Tamiflu) was not sold in general medical stores, to prevent the virus from developing antibiotic resistance due to excessive use. The government feared that people would pop in pills for no reason, thereby making the virus resistant to its only known cure. The problem facing the state machinery was the fact that flu infected cases were coming from across the country. The first casualty was a 14-year-old girl, Riya Sheikh. The deaTh toll soon rose and on January 1, 2010 the Indian government reported there had been 967 deaths from swine flu in the country with Pune recording as many as 124 deaths and Bangalore coming in 2nd with 74 cases.

Generic version of Tamiflu (Oseltamivir) will now be available in Indian market, several months after the first swine flu attack. Natco Pharma and Strides Arcolabs have launched their generic version of Oseltamivir, Natflu and Starflu. These drugs will be available to the customers directly under prescription.

STATEHOOD FOR TELANGANA?

The state of Andhra Pradesh continued to be in the limelight all through the year 2009. In the state elections, then CM Y S Rajashekar Reddy led the Congress to a much deserved victory over the grand TDP-TRS alliance and Cheranjeevi's Praja Rajam Party. However, the Congress satrap couldn't live long to enjoy his hard earned victory as he met a tragic end in a helicopter crash in the Nallamala ranges. While the state had not yet recovered from the shocking demise of one of the brightest stars on the Indian political horizon, torrential floods inundated many parts along the River Krishna causing immense damage to life and property.

Ahead of the 2009 General Elections in India all the major parties in Andhra Pradesh supported the formation of Telangana but it soon faded into background owing to the various tragedies that hit the state. Then in December 2009, TRS president, K C Rao started a fast-unto-death demanding that the Congress party introduce a Telangana bill in the Parliament. Student organizations, mostly from the Osmania University, employee unions and various organizations joined the movement. Scores of people commited suicide in support of Telangana state. Student organizations planned a massive rally at state legislature on December10, Government warned that the rally does not have permission and deployed police troops though out Telangana. The decline of KCR's health contributed to a sense of urgency for the central government to take a decision on the issue of Telangana statehood.

On December 9, 2009, 11:30 PM, Mr. P C Chidambaram, Union Minister of Home Affairs announced that Indian government had started the process of forming a separate Telangana state and that a resolution would be introduced in Andhra Pradesh assembly for this soon. KCR ending his 11 day fast said from his hospital bed that this a true victory of the people of Telangana. The Central government asked Andhra Pradesh state government to pass of a resolution in this regard in the legislative assembly.

Telangana celebrated the central government decision while non-Telangana regions of Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions protested. Parties like the TDP and PRP soon backtracked from their pro-Telangan stance blaming the Congress of not taking them into confidence before the Home Minister's statement. Several members of Andhra Pradesh's legislature submitted resignations to protest the creation of the new state. As of 16 December, at least 147 legislators, including Praja Rajyam Founder Chiranjeevi and many Members of Parliament had resigned in protest of the Government's decision to carve out a new state of Telangana. 22 Ministers form the State Cabinet also submitted their resignation. To counter this 90 odd MLAs from the Telangan region, cutting across all party lines resigned as a pressure tactic.

At the heart of the Telangana agitation is the possesion of the city of Hyderabad. Geographically speaking, India's sixth largest city lies in the Telangana region of present day Andhra Pradesh. However many people from Rayalseema and coastal Andhra who have commercial interests in the IT city are opposing the formation of the new state as it would mean parting ways with the city of the Nizam. Also unlike Chandigarh, Hyderabad is located deep within the proposed Telangana and so the idea of a joint capital is out of the scene. On the contrary the pro-Telangana organizaions have taken a no-compromise attitude over the question of Hyderabad.

The formation of the new state, if and when, is the perfect scenario for India to reterospect on the policy of states based on linguistic terms. Ironically, the state of Andhra Pradesh was the first state to be formed on linguistic lines after a fast-unto-death by Potti Sri Ramaloo. The demand for a separate Telangana is based primarily on the neglect that it has suffered under successive state governments. While coastal Andhra and Rayalseema have become prosperous, the people of Telangana have for long complained about the step motherly treatment metted out to them. On the other hand, smaller states do not necessarily mean development. While states like Goa, Himachal and Uttarakhand are fast maching on the path towards progress, other newly carved states like Jharkhand and Chattisgarh have been engulfed by corruption and Maoist menace.

Also the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh will open a Pandora's box. Taking a cue from protestors in Hyderabad, the GNLF renewed their call for a separate state for the Gurkhas in Northern Bengal. Several trains were blocked in Nagpur to force the authorities to approve the formation of Vidarbha from Maharashtra. Also the UP CM Mayawati wrote to New Delhi asking the PM to split her state into three smaller states - Harit Pradesh, Purvanchal and Bundelkhand. 

MADHU KODA SCAM

On 10th Oct, 2009, former Jharkhand CM Madhu Koda was charged with laundering money worth over Rs. 4000 crores. In nationwide raids by the Enforcement Directorate, assets allegedly worth Rs. 4000 crore - almost a fifth of the annual budget of the state he once ruled - were unearthed. Among others, these assets were reported to include hotels and three companies in Mumbai, property in Kolkata, a hotel in Thailand, and a coal mine in Liberia. Koda, who earlier said that he was a 'poor tribal', has total assets worth over Rs 98 lakh, as per his disclosure with the Election Commission. However investigations showed that his assets include bank deposits, bonds, shares, other savings, two cars, jewellery and land. This alleged scam is said to be the second-largest scam uncovered in India. Minister of State for Home Ajay Maken said that the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) may be asked to probe this scam, in addition to Enforcement Directorate (ED) and the Income Tax Department. In the probes, it was found that Maoists received a 30% share of the 'Koda plunder'.

Koda's life reads like a rags-to-riches tale from Bollywood. His father forced him to give up college because there wasn't enough money and ordered the 'young Madhu to find a job to fend for the family'. A disillusioned Koda, who wanted to join the army , became a labourer instead in an iron mine at Gua. He lugged lumps of iron ore for a promised sum of Rs. 20.50 per day. Koda harboured memories of corruption and exploitation at the mines. "They would get our thumb impressions against payments of Rs.20.50 and would pay us Rs.16. It left an impression on me," he had told the media.

The counting for the Jharkhand Assembly polls were held on 23rd December 2009. Shibhu Soren's JMM emerged as the single largest party in the state that threw up a hung assembly. The Congress won 14 seats while its ally, Babulal Marandi's Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) added another 11. The NDA could get only 20 seats, a significant decline in its standings as compared to the last assembly. Ironically, the BJP in a bid to prevent the UPA from coming into power in yet another state, supported the same Shibhu Soren whom it once had labelled as 'tainted' when he was in the UPA. On 30th December, 2009 Soren was sworn in as the CM of Jharkahand for the third time. He took oath along with BJP and All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) presidents Raghubar Das and Sudesh Mahto.

SOURCES

1. www.andhraroundup.com
2. www.business-standard.com
3. www.green.in.msn.com
4. www.hindubusinessline.com
5. www.ibnlive.in.com
6. www.indianexpress.com
7. www.mynews.in
8. www.news.rediff.com
9. www.thaindian.com
10. www.rajalakshmiv.sulekha.com
11. www.thehindu.com
12. www.wikipedia.org
13. www.zeenews.com

( This is the first part of a three part article on the significant events of 2009 )