MADHYA PRADESH & LOK SABHA 2014

WILL MP HELP MODI BE THE NEXT PM

Considering its minuscule performance in South and the East, the BJP has to perform exceedingly well in the Hindi heartland for its 'Mission 272' to succeed. The saffron outfit's superlative performance in the state elections held in the later half of 2013 has further strengthened the already strong 'Modi wave'. One of the key states for the party is that of Madhya Pradesh. Having finished with nearly three fourths of the total seats, the saffronists are upbeat (Link). The incumbent CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan is extremely popular amongst the masses. Once seen as a potential PM nominee from the party, Chauhan has led the party to an unprecedented straight third term. The Congress slipped further, dropping over 10 seats to end with a disappointing tally of 58. You can see why the BJP is expected to paint the state orange. Of course, it is easier said than done. Remember, the party won the state elections in 2008 too by a massive margin. However, in the Lok Sabha polls held in the following summer, the Congress made a comeback of sorts, winning as many as 12 of the 29 parliamentary seats.

ISSUES

(1) The performance of the Chauhan regime: A relatively unknown face in state politics when he ascended the throne nearly nine years ago, CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan's regime has seen the implementation of several schemes that have helped in the development of the state. Under him, the road network has improved substantially. While the state generates more power now, the work on the linking of rivers has already started. Besides, populist schemes like providing TV sets and rice at Rs. 2 per kilogram have been huge hits. At the same time, welfare schemes including the Ladli Lakshmi Scheme, the Kanyadhan Yojna and the Janani Suraksha Yojna, all aimed at benefiting the women have been appreciated by the masses. While he has proved his administrative skills, another plus point for him is that he is seen as a moderate face by the minorities too.

(2) The failure of the Manmohan regime: While the Chauhan regime may have won a landslide victory in 2013 on the agenda of development, no such thing can be said about the UPA in its second innings. Besides, miserably failing to control price rise, several high ranking ministers in the Union Cabinet have been accused of being involved in multi-crore corruption scams. The anti-incumbency sentiment is strong. Thus while the BJP was able to retain power in Bhopal in spite of being in power for a decade by banking on the report card of their CM, it will be extremely difficult job for the Congress to replicate this in New Delhi.

(3) Modi vs Rahul: Madhya Pradesh is one of those states which sees a direct contest between the two national parties - BJP and the Congress. As such, it will be one state where the Narendra Modi versus Rahul Gandhi battle may have some impact on the way in which people vote. Both the Gujarat CM and the INC Vice-President campaigned heavily in the state on the eve of the assembly elections. Although the Opinion Polls may give Modi the upper hand, you cannot right the Gandhis off. Remember 2004?

CONTENDERS

(1) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): Though he may have lost out on the race to become the party's PM nominee to Narendra Modi, incumbent CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan remains the most popular political figure in the state, leading others by a massive margin. Winning a large state like Madhya Pradesh, that too, three times in a row is no mean task. The saffron camp is heavily relying on their CM's image as a pro-development and secular leader to get them the votes. In many parts of the state, Chauhan dominates the party's posters and advertisements, showing the kind of influence that he has on the cadre. There was some talk that party patriarch L K Advani was keen to contest the Lok Sabha polls from Bhopal. However, that did not materialize due to various reasons. Meanwhile, amongst the party's nominees from here are senior leader Sushma Swaraj (Vidisha), Yashodhara Raje Scindia (Gwalior) and state party president Narendra Singh Tomar (Morena).

(2) Congress: As if the loss in the assembly polls was not enough, the grand old party was humiliated when its official nominee from Bhind, former IAS officer Bhagirath Prasad crossed over to the saffron camp. The INC needs to draw inspiration from its performance in 2009 to gear up. However, one has to realize that on the eve of last General Elections, the UPA government was on a much stronger wicket. This time around though, the anti-incumbency against the Central regime is very strong all thanks to several corruption scams that have rocked the Singh government and its inability to resurrect the economy. The party has renominated two of its top Union Ministers - Kamal Nath (Chhindwara) and Jyothiraditya Scindia (Guna). Meanwhile, former Madhya Pradesh CM Digvijay Singh's brother Laxman Singh will face Sushma from Vidisha.

Others: The Aam Admi Party (AAP) will be making its debut here in 2014. It has given tickets to several leaders of the Narmada Bachao Andolan (NBA), former police officers social activists. The Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) which won a single seat in 2009 will be keen to retain Rewa. Other smaller contenders include the Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GPP), the Smamajwadi Party (SP), the JD(U) and the Left Front.

PAST PERFORMANCES

In 2003, the BJP under Hindutva icon Uma Bharati registered a famous win as they beat the Congress under Digvijay Singh. In the Lok Sabha 2004, when the nation voted the UPA to power, the state still remained loyal to the NDA. The following year though, Bharati was replaced, first by Babulal Gaur and then by her bete noire Shivraj Singh Chauhan. The incumbent CM has never looked back after that. Although, the saffron camp dropped nearly 30 seats in 2008 state polls, it still got a simple majority. The 2009 General Elections saw the INC make a come back of sorts as it managed to restrict the BJP to 16. Finally, Chauhan won a successive third term for his party in 2013.

	Political Party	2013 SE	2009 LE	2008 SE	2004 LE	2003 SE
1	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	165	16	143	25	173
2	Congress (INC)	58	12	71	4	38
3	Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	4	1	7	-	2
4	Others	3	-	9	-	17

MY PREDICTIONS

I expect the 2014 polls in Madhya Pradesh to be an action replay of the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress in the state is weak; to add to the woes is the strong anti-incumbency against the UPA regime. The INC will struggle to enter two digits. Meanwhile, the saffron camp will put on a brilliant show.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	21-25
2	Congress	5-8
3	Others	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) The Modi-Chauhan War: While the BJP may deny any rift between the Chief Ministers of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, there is certainly some friction between the two heavyweights. Advani's insistence on fighting the polls from Bhopal is seen by many as an effort on the part of the patriarch to endorse Chauha over Modi. As such, if the outfit wins 20 or more seats from the state, Chauhan will certainly yield a lot of influence in the Modi regime in the Centre and may use it to get a better package for his state.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

SHIV-RAJ IN MP - PART V

MADHYA PRADESH 2013: THE ISSUES THAT MATTER

THE FIRST TIME VOTERS

With nearly 24 lakh youngsters voting for the first time in the upcoming polls, both the BJP and the Congress are going all out to attract them. By pitting the 41 year old Jyothiraditya Scindia against the incumbent CM, the INC is hoping that his clean image will appease the younger sections of the electorate, helping it end the ten year long power drought in Bhopal. In his rallies, the young Scindia scion is seen talking about development and generation of jobs - two issues that matter most to the youth. Meanwhile, Shivraj Singh Chauhan is relying on his Gujarat counterpart to do the same for him. The tough talking and tech savvy Narendra Modi who is also the BJP' PM candidate has caught the attention of the young Indians across the country and Madhya Pradesh is no exception. The much publicized Gujarat model of development, something that the leader never gets tired of mentioning, has caught the attention of youngsters who see it as the way forward to a brighter future. With the younger voters expected to be an important factor in deciding the outcome of this elections, it is hardly surprising to see why the to parties are keen to impress the youth.

THE MINORITY VOTES

Unlike Modi, Chauhan is very popular with the minorities too. In fact, at one point of time when NDA was looking for a new PM candidate for the 2014 polls, some section including the patriarch L K Advani favored him considering his image as a good administrator as well as a secular leader. The Madhya Pradesh CM organizes Iftar parties at his official residence and has worn the skull cap on numerous occasions. No major communal clashes have been reported from the state in his tenure. At the same time, some decisions taken by him including the singing of Vande Mataram and teaching Surya Namaskar in schools have seen opposition from Muslim organizations. As the battle for Bhopal heats up, Shivraj is not taking any chances. Former MP Arif Beig has been given a ticket from Bhopal - North. On the other hand, the elevation of Narendra Modi as the BJP's official PM nominee has given the Congress a chance to play the communal card before the state elections. Digvijay Singh, known for taking jibes at the RSS will be the party's main leader to woo the Muslims.

SMALLER PARTIES

Whosoever is in power in Lucknow tends to get about five to ten seats in Madhya Pradesh too. As such, while the Samajwadi Party (SP) had 7 seats in 2003 polls, they dropped to a single seat five years down the line as the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) grew from two to seven. As such, the SP is expected to do well in comparison with its rival in the areas adjoining Uttar Pradesh. CM Akhilesh is said to be particularly focusing on two regions - Chambal and Bundelkhand and is hoping to snatch about 15 seats from here. The party to look out for will be the Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GPP). Established in 1991, the GPP aims to create a separate state of Gondwana in Central India to support the cause if the Gondli people. It presently has a single seat in the state assembly. The regional outfit has decided to join hands with the the JD(U). Several rebels from the BJP and the Congress have also joined it. It is likely that the GPP may get up to 5 seats this time around. The Left Front will field candidates from 33 constituencies in the state.

For more on the Madhya Pradesh Elections 2013, click here (Link)

SHIV-RAJ IN MP? - PART IV

MADHYA PRADESH 2013: THE ISSUES THAT MATTER

DEVELOPMENT

Nobody can deny the fact that Madhya Pradesh, a state that has lagged behind others in terms of development has made some worth while progress under the leadership of Shivraj Singh Chauhan in the last eight years. When he ascended the chair way back in late 2005, he was not a well known face in local politics. Besides, he was facing the wrath of his bete noire Uma Bharati - the firebrand leader who, after being sidelined for openly taking on the top leadership, launched her own outfit. In a bid to counter the challenges facing him and to bolster his personal image, Chauhan launched two populist schemes - free TV sets and rice at one rupee per kilo which were mass hits. Then came the numerous welfare schemes, many of which got praises even from his harshest critics. These include the Ladli Lakshmi Scheme, the state government buys NSC worth Rs 30,000 over a period of five years after the birth of a girl child. While the parents get some fixed amount at the end of a certain time periods, they girl may get up to Rs 1 lakh after she turns 21 years old. The Kanyadhan Yojna gives Rs 7,500 to poor families during their daughter's wedding whereas the Janani Suraksha Yojna provides all assistance to pregnant mothers till child birth. Data available shows that the implementation of these schemes have benefited thousands of people so far.

Traditionally classified as a BIMARU state, there is no doubt that Madhya Pradesh has improved under the tenure of Chauhan. During the days of Digvijay Singh, the conditions of the roads in several regions of MP was pathetic to say the least. On the contrary, the incumbent CM has added over 90,000 km of roads in the last eight years - one of his biggest USPs. Of course, there is a lot of scope for improvement even now. Another issue on which he has delivered is power generation. Ever since he took over, the state's power production has grown by 10,000 MW. While water supply remains a concern in several parts, the situation has improved to some extent. Agriculture has received an impetus, especially in the Vindhya region with the construction of two key projects - Banasagar and Gulab Sagar. Wheat production has grown manifolds, and MP is today, the third highest producer of this crop, trailing Punjab and Haryana. At the same time, several IT companies have decided to open their branches in an IT Park in Indore after the CM promised to offer them certain concessions besides reducing bureaucratic hassles. Though several scandals have rocked his government at regular intervals, Shivraj is perceived by the electorate as a non-corrupt leader who has delivered as far as bijli, sadak aur paani is concerned.

ANTI-INCUMBENCY

While the BJP believes that it will comfortably cross the 116 mark for the third time, history seems to suggest otherwise. Ever since the state was placed under President's Rule in 1993, there has been a change in regime after every ten years in Bhopal. Diggi Raja occupied the CM's chair between 1993 to 2003 and the saffron party has ruled since then. As such, it will hardly be surprising if the masses give the Congress another shot, especially after it projected a new and a more credible face. Besides, for all the talks of development that has taken place here under Chauhan, the results are still only satisfactory. While road network has expanded, several villages continue to be inaccessible; water scarcity continues to be a major problem especially in the rural hinterland; the murder of environmental activist Shehla Masood and the failure to check the illegal activities of the sand mafia have put a big question mark on the intentions of the administration. Opinion polls suggest that the general conception amongst the farmers is that the incumbent government could have done a lot more to help them. In spite of all the schemes launched to provide women empowerment, Madhya Pradesh has recorded the highest cases of rapes against women. This is certainly a big embarrassment for Shivraj.

Another problem for the ruling party is that names of several of its ministers have figured either in corruption scandals or courted controversies of some sort. The CM's wife Sadhna Singh has been accused by the Opposition of buying four dumpers by specifying a fake residential address and then lending it to a cement company. The sodomy case involving former Finance Minister Raghavji, just few days prior to the polls is a big blow. Though the Vidisha strongman has been expelled, the damage seems to be done. Kailash Vijaywargiya who is in-charge of Industries has courted trouble time and again including when he defended the controversial God man Asaram Babu. Bhopal MLA Dhruvanarayan Singh's name figured in the Shehla Massod murder case. Other prominent leaders in this notorious list includes former CM Babulal Gaur, Animal Husbandry Minister Ajay Vishnoi, Medical Education Minister Anup Mishra and Education Minister Archana Chitnis. Twenty eight out of the 143 BJP MLAs have criminal cases pending against them. However, the Congress cannot claim the moral high ground here since 21 of its own men are tainted.

REBELLION

The factor that could take the victory away from the BJP is rebellion and defection amongst its ranks. In a bid to counter anti-incumbency, the party was forced into taking some tough decisions which may boomerang on it. Several sitting MLAs, including few cabinet ministers have been denied tickets. On the other hand, protests were staged by the cadre against the official party nominees in many places. While some of these dissidents are likely to contest as independents, many may join the Congress or smaller parties. Either way, it is Chauhan who will be hurt. In Ratlam constituency, party workers who were unhappy with the nomination of Chetan Kashyap marched to the house of former state Home Minister Himmat Kothari and convinced him to contest as an independent. Realizing that its 'bad' choices could be the deciding factor in the upcoming polls, the saffron outfit is trying hard to woo back the rebels. It was believed that former minister Raghavji who was shown the door few months ago was lobbying for a ticket for his daughter. As his demand was not met, it was speculated that he would rebel and hurt the BJP in at least five seats in the Vidisha region. However, after a behind the doors meeting with Sushma Swaraj, the veteran leader is said to be keeping a low profile. Meanwhile, Shivraj Chauhan has filed his nomination from Vidisha too.

In the Congress camp too, reports of dissidence have emerged. Vice President of the state committee Manak Aggarwal resigned from his post after he was denied a ticket from Hoshangabad. He has accused senior party leader Suresh Pachouri of conniving with the sand mafia to scuttle his chances. Ajay Singh - the Leader of Opposition in the out going legislature was believed to be upset with  Scindia & Kamal Nath faction for ignoring him while deciding party nominees in his home town. Naresh Malviya, another Congressman committed suicide after being denied a nomination from Agar. In Silwani, workers went on a rampage after Devendra Patel - a sitting MLA from the BJP who defected to the Congress was given a ticket. In the early days of the campaign it was believed that the two clans in the MP Congress - one led by the former CM Digvijay Singh and the other under young Jyothiraditya Scindia were fighting over the ticket allocation to their supporters.Luckily for them, it seems that the INC leaders here have realized that the only way to beat the Chauhan regime here is to be united. Just on the eve of the elections, it has been reported that all prominent state leaders were consulted before the final list of candidates was made public.

For more on the Madhya Pradesh Elections 2013, click here (Link)

SHIV-RAJ IN MP? - PART III

MADHYA PRADESH 2013: THE ISSUES THAT MATTER

LEADERSHIP DEBATE

Riding on his charisma, the BJP is trying to make the upcoming polls a straight contest between their Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan and the Congress. In fact, this makes a lot of sense for the ruling party, considering the fact that the Opposition is split in two distinct sections. A soft spoken leader who is identified as the man who ushered in some sort of development in a relatively 'backward' state in his eight year long term, Chauhan enjoys immense popularity amongst the masses. His welfare schemes targeting the women and the poor have made him extremely popular and the saffron brigade is hoping that he can win a third straight term for them. Opinion polls carried out by several organizations have shown that the CM's ratings are quite high considering the fact that he has been in power for eight years. However, the reality on the ground is that as the polling date comes closer, the fight is getting too close to call. Large number of rebels in the fray could just do the damage that the Congress has not been able to do on its own. As such, apart from his constituency of Budhni, Chauhan has filed his papers from Vidisha - a move to cut down the influence of former Finance Minister Raghavji who is the sitting MLA from here. It was reported that Raghavji was hoping that the party would nominate his daughter from here.

Keen to project a fresh face to take on the heavy weight Chauhan, the Congress named Union Minister Jyothiraditya Scindia as the head of campaign in Madhya Pradesh. Representing the Guna constituency, the clean image of the young leader and the good will earned by his his late father, the much beloved Madhavrao Scindia who died in a tragic plane crash in 2001 has worked in his favor. However, in the run up to the polls, media reports coming from the Congress camp indicated that two distinct factions had emerged with each trying to out do the other in the race to get tickets for their supporters. Jyothiraditya and his colleague Kamal Nath had ganged up against former CM Digvijay Singh and his loyalist - Ajay Singh and Kantilal Bhuria. Luckily for the Opposition, it seems that the Scindia scion and former royal of Raghogarh have mended their fences in the last after the intervention of the Gandhis. Off late, the INC is making inroads in Chambal and Baghelkhand regions where it is expected to do well. The general perception is that the Congress would have decimated the ruling party had the Gwalior scion been named as its CM candidate bout an year back. However is it too little, too late? Well, only time will tell. 

MODI vs RAHUL - THE LITMUS PAPER TEST 

While it is true that state elections are fought primarily on local issues, the impact that the upcoming assembly polls will have on the General Elections in 2014 cannot be entirely ruled out. Poll pundist and political observers have dubbed these polls as the semi-finals before the clash of the titans in next May. There are two factors that make Madhya Pradesh extremely important in this context. Firstly, it is one of the few states that sees a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress - the two major parties in the Indian political scene. The Left Front and its allies in the much hyped Third Front have no support base here what so ever. Secondly, the state sends 29 MPs to the Lower House of the Parliament and a spectacular win here will give the victor a head start over the other in the big battle seven months down the line. The last General Elections was a close fight with the BJP winning 16 seats whereas the INC took home 12 as the BSP registered victory in one constituency.

Narendra Modi - the BJP's PM nominee addressed a rally in Bhopal on 25^th September titled the 'Karyakarta Mahakumbh' which some claim to be is the biggest political congregation of its kind in the world where he heaped praises on the performance of the Chauhan regime. The Jhansi leg of his 'Vijay Shankhand' tour of the neighboring Uttar Pradesh also drew large crowds from adjoining districts of MP due to its geographical proximity. The Gujarat CM is expected to campaign here from 18^th November to 22^nd November. On similar lines, Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi kick started his Madhya Pradesh campaign with the 'Satta Parivartan' rally in Sagar where he tore into the state government for failing on parameters like poverty, hunger and rural health while ignoring the region of Bagelkhand. This was later followed by another big gathering at Indore on the same day where he promised to make the city the economic hub of the state if voted to power. With both the PM nominees battling it out in the heart of India, the results here will be a good opportunity for both the BJP and the Congress to asses their preparedness before May 2014.

For more on the Madhya Pradesh Elections 2013, click here (Link)

THE STATES THAT MATTER: NOV-DEC 2013

THE DRESS-REHEARSAL BEFORE THE GENERAL ELECTIONS

The State elections - November/December 2014

As a politically eventful year nears its end, five states will go to the polls in November-December 2013, most of these seeing a straight fight between the two major parties in the country - the Congress and the BJP. On the eve of the impending battle in 2014, the upcoming elections are an excellent opportunity for the ruling UPA (United Progressive Alliance) to asses the performance of the central government in the last decade of its rule or as its detractors say, its misrule. Though anti-incumbency is on a all time high and the ratings of the PM and his party are falling at a rather alarming rate, the INC is putting its 'best foot' forward with Vice President Rahul Gandhi talking on issues that affect the aam admi like his mother's deteriorating health, the assassination of his father and grand mother in spite of their 'great' contribution towards the country and the startling claim of ISI's role in instigating violence in Muzzaffarabad. I must say that Baba is quite courageous; to go on the big stage and talk 'nonsense' in front of thousands of people hit by poverty, price rise and unemployment is no mean feat.

For the principal Opposition - the BJP, their prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is on a blitzkrieg, addressing rallies in these states, asking people to support his outfit while personally targeting the Prime Minister. While conveniently forgetting his administrative failure during the 2002 Godhra riots - the primary reason for the fall of the Vajpayee regime way back in 2004, he is being portrayed by the right wing as a 'Super Hero' who will rid India of all the problems that plague her. In a country which traditionally draws its strength from cultural, religious, regional and linguistic diversity, a 'divisive' leader like NaMo is a complete misfit. Needless to say, in a democracy like where its only the numbers that count, who actually cares about morals after all? And the BJP is no exception. Thankfully for the people, none of the constituents of the much hyped Third Front have any significant presence here. Although the General elections may be just about seven months away, we also need to realize that state elections are to a large extent fought on local issues and a great performance here may not be easy to replicate at the Center in the days to come. Nonetheless, a good show will for sure, boost the morale in the victor's camp.

In Delhi, Sheila Dixit will lead the charge for the Congress as she battles for a forth consecutive term. Although there seems to be wide spread dissatisfaction about her government, she still continues to be quite popular amongst the masses, something that her party is hoping will work in their favor. In spite of her personal image, the furor over the Delhi Common Wealth Games corruption scandal, the outrage following the Nirbhaya rape case and rising prices will make it extremely difficult for the Congress to cross the half way mark of 35 on its own. In fact, for the INC, winning this poll on its own will be like climbing the Everest without any oxygen cylinders. Meanwhile, the BJP should be credited for completely messing up the situation which till recently was heavily tilted on its side. The indecisiveness over its leadership here, something that we generally associate with the INC, has stolen the thunder off its campaign. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) born out of Anna Hazare movement's Lokpal movement is emerging as a serious contender as it is raking up the issues that affect the people of the capital. With Arvind Kejriwal training its gun over the two major national parties, the newly launched outfit may severely damage the prospects of both Sheila Dixit and Harsh Vardhan.

In Madhya Pradesh, CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan is relying on his work in the last seven years at the helm of affairs to win a third straight term in Bhopal for the BJP. I wonder whether not taing any strict action against the sand mafia here is also one of his many 'developmental' schemes. While trends seem to indicate that his party is likely to reach the magic mark of 115 quite comfortably, even though it may end up losing about 20 seats, the saffron brigade cannot be complacent and drop its guard. Hope the party remembers the disaster of 2004 when its complacency allowed the Congress to script a famous win. MP and young Turk Jyothiraditya Scindia, with his clean image and connectivity with the youth, is overlooking the elections for the Congress, which like its nemesis in Delhi seems to not have learnt any lessons from bitter experiences in the earlier elections. In neighboring Chattisgarh too, the charisma and the development work of Raman Singh is working for the BJP, in spite of the fact that parallel government of the Maoists is controlling several parts of the state. Unfortunately for the Congress, it lost most of its top brass in the ghastly Darbha attack and ever since has become directionless. Ajit Jogi, the former CM is its only hope in giving some competition to the BJP.

If media reports are to be believed, Vasundhara Raje Scindia is all set to return as the Chief Minister of Rajasthan for a second term, five years after losing power to Congress' Ashok Gelhot. Raje has done her homework well this time around, mending differences with other leaders in the state as well as those in Delhi. For the state government, fighting anti-incumbency that seems to be looming large, will be rather difficult. However, writing off a veteran like Gelhot can be a costly mistake. The last state to go to the polls is Mizoram in the North east where the Congress is presently in power. CM Lal Thanawla will face a potent threat from the Mizo National Front led by extremist turned politician Zoramathanga. As the fight for the five states intensifies in the coming days, expect fireworks, numerous allegations and counter allegations, many defections and several mammoth rallies to woo the voters. While local issues may ultimately decide the winners, there is no doubt they will impact the big general elections scheduled in May 2014 in more ways than one.