AMMA RETURNS

AIADMK SUPREMO IS BACK WITH A BANG

Much to the chagrin of her enemies, AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa who was given a clean chit by the Karnataka High Court in the disproportionate asset case couple of weeks ago is back, 'officially' the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu for the fifth time. After being convicted in the case and given a jail sentence for four years in September 2014, the regional satrap who swept to power in the last state polls had stepped down and entrusted the responsibility of the state to here confidante O Paneerselvam. Since then, she had maintained a rather low profile, refusing to make public appearances and this meant that most public projects were struck up since the 'Iron Lady' was not there to inaugurate them. Although this may sound hilarious for most of us, people following Dravidian politics will certainly not be surprised. After all, politics down south is as dramatic as the local cinema and most of the successful Tamil politicians including Jaya have their roots in the film industry.

With the AIADMK chief back at the helm of affairs, the prospects of her party in the state elections scheduled for the next year have blossomed overnight. After successive victories, first in the 2011 polls and then in the 2014 General Elections, the Amma Express was on a roll. The many freebies and welfare schemes launched during her tenure were paying off. Its primary opposition in the state - the DMK was battling allegations of corruption and the fight within its first family was only intensifying with each passing day. Just when everything seemed to be going right for Jaya and her followers, the ruling of the Karnataka HC came as a massive jolt, threatening to cut short her political ambitions for the time being. However, much to her relief, the recent ruling, acquitting her and three others of all allegations of wrong-doing during her previous tenure have only enhanced the 'aura' of invincibility surrounding her. Speaking after the verdict she said that she has come out of the 'ordeal' like pure gold; in fact, many believed that Jaya could even consider snap polls, trying to en-cash on the sympathy wave following her acquittal.

From the perspective of the AIADMK, the decision is a big fillip before it kick starts its campaign for the 2016 polls. The return of Amma as the CM of Tamil Nadu is set to herald in a new set of reforms as well as public welfare scheme - read 'freebies', aimed at consolidating her voter base that has stood firmly with her for some time now. Many schemes like the Chennai Metro which has been completed but not yet made operational, apparently since Jaya was not there to inaugurate it are likely to be opened for the public. Though state politics may be her primary concern as of now, the AIADMK is expected to now play a more proactive role in the Lok Sabha too where it is the third largest party with 37 members. Besides, its 11 members in the Rajya Sabha too could be actively wooed, both by the government and the various opposing blocks considering that many of the Bills could be stuck up in this house.

While one witnessed scenes of ecstatic celebrations in the AIADMK camp, a wave of gloom has set upon the DMK. Though Karuna tried to take a 'principled' stand saying that the 'court of conscience' was above all other courts, it is clear that his party's attempt to use this issue to script a revival has gone down the drain. The numerous problems plaguing the DMK just seem to be piling one after another. As if successive defeats were not enough, the fight between Stalin and Azaghiri that led to the ouster of the latter from the party has severely weakened its ranks. The allegations of graft against some of its prominent leaders including Karuna's daughter Kanimozhi, his nephew Dayanidhi Maran and former Telecom Minister A Raja has tarnished the party's image to a large extent. In the present context, it will take more than a miracle for Karuna and the DMK to prevent Jaya from winning a straight second term.

Although it was BJP leader Subramanian Swamy who had filed the case against the Tamil Nadu CM nearly two decades ago, Jaya's acquittal is likely to bring cheers to the saffron outfit. It is a well known fact that the PM and Jaya share a good personal rapport. After the verdict, Modi is believed to have called up Amma and congratulated her. With the AIADMK chief coming out clean from all the allegations levied against her, it makes it much easier for the BJP to work with her party. Since the NDA lacks the numbers in the Upper House, the saffronists would now try to strike some sort of a working deal, if not a partnership between the two political parties to check mate their enemies.

For the Congress though, the case could give it the leverage it needs to stage a comeback down south or at least try to get back some of the space that it has conceded to others. The local party unit is in tatters and unless it manages to make up with its former ally - the DMK which is unlikely, it will find it extremely difficult to even cross the two digit mark in the next state polls. But then, as fate would have it, the Congress is all set to play a key role in the Jaya saga which is far from over. After all, it is in power in Karnataka and it is up to the Siddaramaiah government to file a review petition in the Supreme Court against the HC verdict. In that scenario, the Tamil Nadu CM could be in for some problems in the near future. More importantly, the move will perhaps be the first step in the renewal of ties between the INC and the DMK which has been left red-faced after dropping of the charges against Jayalalithaa. However, the move could boomerang too since this may translate into more closer ties between the BJP and the AIADMK which will be a win-win situation for both.

With the party being relegated to a 'pariah' and regional satraps largely ostracizing it, the Congress rarely gets a chance to play a decisive role in politics nowadays. However, in the Jaya disproportionate asset case, it is the INC that holds the cards. The party leaders need to evaluate all the angles and come up with an action plan that can help it turn the tide in its favor. Whatever the party's government in Karnataka does, the implications of that decision will not only impact Tamil politics but will resonate in the National Parliament.

THE PARADOX

MODI AND VARANSI: ANOTHER CONTRADICTION IN INDIA'S POLITICAL TAMASHA

Original: World HD Wallpaper

India is a land of 'contradictions'. In our country, we see paradoxes in all spheres, be it our culture, our society or even our economics. In fact, our politics, more than anything else personifies this word. How many times have we seen political parties switch sides without any regards to their 'ideology' either to gain power or for electoral benefits. On the eve of the General Elections, our leaders seem to have no problem in switching sides; the babus who have been with a particular political party for years show no remorse while walking over to the opposition camp and mingling with erstwhile political rivals. Forget that, the voters in the world's largest democracy too can, at times, take contradictory stance while exercising the most important right guaranteed by the Constitution. In fact, I see a whole bundle of contradictions in the BJP's decision to field its PM nominee Narendra Modi from the seat of Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh. Of course, it is easy to see why the saffron outfit took this decision. By making the Gujarat CM stand from a seat in the east, the NDA wants to demonstrate that the Modi wave spans across the country and is not a phenomenon restricted to the West. Besides, performing well in UP is extremely crucial for the party in its quest to gain power in 2014. In fact, the BJP is hoping that the move will reap benefits across the Hindi heartland. There is another section of people which thinks that there is a hidden 'Hindutva' agenda behind this, considering the fact that Kashi is an extremely holy place for Indians. Finally, there are those who feel that it is a part of the BJP's strategy to get their leader elected from a 'safe seat'. Keeping the politics apart, I too have certain views on it.

(1) The Idea of India: Located right in the heart of the rich and fertile Gangetic plain, Varanasi or Benaras is one of the centres where the great Indian culture evolved over a period spanning several millennia. It was here that the 'Idea of India' was born - a country which derives its strength from its diversity; a nation to people who worship different Gods, speak myriad languages and belong to varied races; a nation which believes in peaceful co-existence, non-violence and harmony; a country which prides itself as the torchbearer of humanity. In fact, even the demographics of the city (80% Hindus, 18% Muslims and 2% Others) is pretty similar to that of the rest of the country. Now contrast this to the image of the Gujarat CM Narendra Modi. In 2002, he failed to protect the minorities in his state, though he may not have been directed involved in the riots. While the courts may have given him a clean chit, the fact remains that the BJP's PM nominee has, on several occasions hurt the sentiments of the Muslims. His refusal to wear a skull cap during his 'Sadbhavana' fast or his puppy dog remark have been in bad taste. The saffronists may justify this saying that Modi's intentions were noble. However, a leader who aims to be the next Prime Minister of the country must learn to pick his words correctly. Considering his 'not-so-secular' credentials, the Gujarat CM's nomination is in complete contrast to Idea of India which is personified by the city of Benaras. At the same time, I need to clarify that I am in no way a supporter of the 'pseudo-secularism' practiced by the Congress or the likes of Mulayum or Lalu. In fact, playing the minority card is as dangerous as believing in appeasing the majority for the future of the country.

(2) The Old and the New India: I am not sure as to how many of you agree with me on this. Varanasi is one of the oldest continuously inhabited places on the Earth. While India is today considered to be one of the fastest growing nations in the world, the city along the banks of the Holy Ganga continues to hold on to its old world charm. Drenched in traditions and soaked in spirituality, the narrow by lanes lanes of the city, littered with waste on either side are shared by both, the residents and the cows. It is so much different from the big cities and metros in the country which have attracted companies and firms from all across the world. While Varanasi may still be bound by the ideals and the values of the past, for many, especially the youth, Modi represents a young and a dynamic India, poised to play a major role in international politics. His success in getting foreign investments from different parts of the world to Gujarat, his love for technology, his innovative ideas, his vision for a stronger India and his pro-development agenda has made him very popular with younger voters. Many of his supporters address him as the 'Vikas purush'. Again, I find some contradiction here.

(3) The Caste Factor: Now this is one contradiction that I am so proud of. Abode of the Lord Kashinath, Varanasi is one of the holiest places in Hinduism. According to the Puranas, it is the favorite city of Shiva - the Destroyer. Lakhs of devotees visit this pilgrimage centre each year to seek the blessing of the resident deity and take a dip in the Holy Ganga. In fact, it is believed that anybody who dies here is liberated from the cycle of birth, thereby attaining 'Moksha'. As such, the Brahmins, the priestly class amongst the Hindus yield considerable influence in the city. However, the BJP's nominee from here is an OBC by birth. Narendra Modi's humble origins are well known. He is the son of a tea vendor, who used to sell tea at the railway station in Mehsana. The very fact that a person from the so-called 'lower' caste can contest and possibly win from a seat dominated by the 'higher' castes is, in my opinion, a contradiction. Whether he wins or not or whether he becomes the next PM or not is not important. We have to appreciate the it is the vision of our founding fathers and a great triumph for our democratic values that caste lines have blurred, at least to some extent. Now it goes without saying that we need to do a lot more. At the same time, we also have to acknowledge that at least some progress has been done.

THE DOUBLE EDGED SWORD

THE PROS AND CONS OF NAMING MODI AS THE PM CANDIDATE

Original: IBN Live/Reuters 

As if any formal endorsement was needed after the Goa enclave of the BJP where he was declared as the head of the party's 2014 campaign, Gujarat CM Narendra Modi has been officially anointed as the NDA's candidate for the top post on Friday - 13 September, 2013. In a outfit which was struggling over the war of succession amongst its second generation leaders ever since its unexpected and decisive defeat in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the decision has finally been made. Beating the likes of Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley - who are currently heading the party in the two Houses and are known to be very close to patriarch Advani, the Hindutva poster boy's much hyped development model and his stinging attacks on the innumerable failures of the UPA government has galvanized the cadre, making him the unanimous choice to take on the Congress. At a time when the economy is struggling and the country's image is taking a hit, the saffron brigade is projecting NaMo as the ultimate saviour of the nation, a Messiah who will salvage our lost pride and solve all our problems. However, even the most ardent of BJP followers know that conditions apply. Modi is an extremely polarizing figure and his mishandling of the 2002 riots may end up consolidating the 'secular' and the significant minority votes in the favour of the 'pseudo-secular' parties. Internally, the appointment seems to have caused an internal crisis with Bhishma pithama opposing the move. However, the decision has been made and the onus is now on the Congress to name who will spear head its own campaign.

Over the last few years, Modi has slowly become the most prominent face of his party. Ever since his third straight victory over the Congress in the 2012 Gujarat elections, his stature within the party has only grown and its followers have come to a conclusion that only he can get them back to power in New Delhi. Besides being an excellent orator, his pro-development stance, 'no-nonsense' attitude, a strong position on national security, his scathing and below the belt attacks on the UPA leadership and of course, his so-called 'vision' for India have made him a hit in the cyberspace and popular amongst the middle class and the youth. At a time when the UPA government finds itself in a tight spot over numerous issues like price rise, falling rupee, corruption and failure to protect our borders, Rajnath & Co. are hoping 'NaMonia' or 'pneumonia' - depending on which side of the political divide you are on, will sweep the nation. The mood in the opposition camp is upbeat. With Modi at the helm of affairs, there seems to be a new found confidence amongst the workers on the streets. The BJP seems to be in resurgence. Though, it may not attract any significant allies up to the polls, it has made its intention clear - it wants to cross the 200 mark and then strike deals with regional players opposed to the Congress. With the party growing stronger, brick by brick at a time, it seems that the next Lok Sabha will be a tough contest; much closely fought than 2009.

Secondly, with this important announcement, the war of succession in the saffron party seems to be brushed aside, at least for the time being. The Advani camp has been cut to size; while the Lau Purush is still sulking, a vast majority of the leaders including the president have stood behind Modi. The RSS too has given a green signal. Now that the internal differences have been 'resolved', the BJP's position has only been strengthened. Thirdly, for the party that piggy banked on the Babri demolition to emerge as an alternative to the Congress, Modi - a polarizing figure will be in line with its core Hindutva strategy. Amit Shah, a trusted aide of the Gujarat strongman who has been accused of playing a key role in the 'fake' encounters post 2002 riots, has been put in charge of UP, where the BJP could win just 10 seats in the last elections. His visit to Ayodhya and his assurance of building a Ram Temple at the disputed site has only confirmed this. Perhaps, the biggest positive for the Opposition is that the move has put the Congress in the dock. Now, with the ball in its court, there is tremendous pressure on the party to name a candidate to oppose Modi. Rahul Gandhi, who every Congressman believes has the divine right to become the PM is inexperienced and is reported to be reluctant to jump into the fray. Unlike 2009 where his role in passing the Indo-Nuclear deal was appreciated, Manmohan Singh's popularity has been tarnished this time around by the 2G and the Coalgate scams. Sonia Gandhi, UPA's tallest leader is not keeping well. Besides, every attack on Modi will only give him more footage and backfire on the government; after all the who knows it better than Sonia - her infamous 'Maut ka Saudagar' remark ahead of the 2007 Gujarat elections backfired on her own party.

However, Modi's biggest problem continues to be the ghost of the riots following the Godhra carnage. Though he may not have been implicated by any court as yet, his complete mishandling of the administration during that period has made him a much hated figure amongst the minorities. Besides, several scholars, intellectuals and distinguished members of the civil society have been vocal in their criticism of him. Although it is not of much importance, the US government has still not offered a visa to him. Even in the past few months, his unwarranted remarks like Hindu nationalism and 'Burqa of secularism' have only made the matters worse, thereby giving his detractors opportunities to take swipes at him. Many believe that Modi, whose brand of politics is based on religious intolerance, anger, arrogance and violence is completely in contrast to the ideals of our great civilization. They argue that a man who could not uphold the secular fabric of our society cannot lead a country renowned for its diversity. Since he is such a polarizing figure, the BJP's decision may end up working in favour of the Congress. In the last general elections, Varun Gandhi's hate speech in his constituency of Pilibhit in UP proved to be a costly mistake. Though he won his seat, the furor also caused the Muslim votes to go to the INC's kitty, thereby helping it gain over twice as much as the saffron outfit in the state. With the Gujarat CM now being declared as the party's PM nominee, the Congress's policy of veiled minority appeasement policy has now got some sort of legitimacy.

Probably, the biggest worry for the BJP since the naming of Modi is that it has become less attractive to worthwhile allies before the polls. There are two issues that work against the Gujarat CM in this regards. Firstly, many of the BJP's prospective alliance partners including Patnaik's BJD in Orissa, Mamata's TMC in Bengal and Naidu's TDP in Andhra themselves have a significant support base amongst the Muslims. As such, by allying with the NaMo led BJP, they may end up alienating their vote bank. At a time when the pundits have predicted a hung assembly, every party wants to increase its tally, thereby enhancing its political influence in New Delhi. This was the precise reason that the JD(U) walked out of the NDA sometime back. Secondly, a head strong leader like NaMo will be very hard to deal with. In our Rajneeti where allies regularly bully national parties for the silliest of reasons, a moderate like Vajpayee with the ability to keep everyone together while not compromising on national interests will be needed. Another head ache for Modi emanates from his own camp. His one time mentor Advani, who even persuaded Vajpayee against dismissing the Gujarat government in 2002 has not endorsed him yet. The former Home Minister who was absent at the Goa enclave also skipped the meeting in Delhi where NaMo was endorsed. Certainly, this is not the start that the NaMo band wagon wanted. The conclusion is that the choice has been made and the fate of Narendra Modi will be decided in 2014 when the world's largest democracy goes for elections.

For more on the 2014 General Elections

(1) The Fall of the Triumvirate (Link)

(2) Reading Between the Lines (Link)

(3) An Ally in Need is an Ally Indeed (Link)