TAMIL NADU & LOK SABHA 2014

CAN JAYA SINK THE DMK'S SUN?

From Bengal, we move to another state which is ruled by a lady politician - the southern state of Tamil Nadu. In 2011 state elections, the AIADMK led alliance swept the state, winning a staggering 201 of the 234 seats. While Amma's outfit walked away with 150 seats, her ally the DMDK (Link) finished as the second largest party as it ending with an impressive tally of 29 seats. The DMK was decimated. In fact when Vijaykanth decided against joining the Jaya government, he became the Leader of Opposition, relegating Karuna's party to the third spot. Three years down the line, things have changed to some extent. The AIADMK supremo is nurturing Prime Ministerial ambitions, hopeful that a tally of say about 30 odd seats will make the 'natural' leader of a Third Front. The DMK is no more a constituent of the UPA, having broken off from the INC led coalition following differences over the Lankan Tamil issue. The BJP on the other hand has stitched together a 'Half Rainbow' alliance in the state (Link) with several smaller Dravidian parties. The Congress though is left in the lurch; without any strong allies on its side, it seems to be headed towards a rout.

ISSUES

(1) Performance test of the Jaya government: It has been three years since the AIADMK registered a landslide victory in the state elections, relegating the DMK to the third spot. Having completed more than half of her tenure, the Tamil Nadu CM's performance will be under the scanner. The 'Amma Eateries' serving highly subsidized food has been a big hit across the state, run by women's self help groups. Other welfare measures include the 'Amma Marundagam ' (Medical Stores) and free laptops to students studying in standard XII and Polytechnic colleges. The law and order situation has improved as compared to that under the previous Karunanidhi regime. On the ground, the AIADMK is said to be the strongest political party, ahead of the others, especially with the DMK in disarray and the Congress fighting the polls alone.

(2) Anti-incumbency against the UPA: With corruption becoming a major issue across the nation, the Congress is clearly on the back foot. One of the biggest scams in the second tenure of the Congress led coalition government has been the 2G scam, perhaps running into thousands of crores. This is important because the prime accused in this fiasco has been the former Telecom Minister A Raja of the DMK. In fact, one of the beneficiary of this allegedly has been Karuna's daughter and Rajya Sabha MP Kanimozhi. Thus while the DMK did pull out of the UPA late last year, the stigma of 'corruption' has not been washed away, at least not yet. Even the performance of the last DMK regime was much below par. This is certainly going to further help the AIADMK and the NDA win votes.

(3) Lankan Tamil Issue: In the last days of the 2009 Lankan civil war as the island nation's army decimated the LTTE, it is alleged that severe atrocities were committed by men in uniform against the Tamils. Videos from various organizations around the world have given 'questionable' evidence of armymen killing the minorities in cold blood including Prabhakaran's young son and LTTE loyalist Isapriya. With the US planning to move a resolution against the Sri Lankan government in the UN, the DMK pulled out of the UPA alleging that the Congress was not ready to accept its suggestions. The whole issue has snowballed into a major poll issue in the state with both the Dravidian parties accusing the Centre of not doing anything to protect the Tamils in Jaffna. Of course, we also need to take into account that we cannot displease our southern neighbor which is also a strategic partner.

Another issue, perhaps linked to this is the drama over the release of the people convicted in the assassination of former PM Rajiv Gandhi. With the Supreme Court commuting the death sentence of three of the convicts to life, the Jaya government tried to secure brownie points by announcing that it would release all the seven people associated with the case. This was met with stiff opposition from the Congress who called this a betrayal. The SC later intervened and has stayed the move.

CONTENDERS

(1) All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK): After that spectacular victory in the last state polls, AIADMK supremo is buoyed and has started voicing her national ambitions as the calls for a Third Front are growing louder. This is reflected in the party manifesto too. However, the wily politician that she is, she 'forced' the Left in breaking ties with her outfit, aware that each seat in her kitty would make her more powerful nationally. The numerous welfare schemes that her government has launched, the anti-incumbency against the UPA and the dissidence within the DMK are working to Amma's advantage. In fact, the AIADMK may give tough competition to the likes of the TMC and the Left to emerge as the third largest player in the Parliament. The AIADMK's candidates include T G Venkatesh Babu (Chennai North), Dr J Jayavardhan (Chennai South), S R Vijayakumar (Chennai Central), P Senguttuvan (Vellore), V Panneerselvam (Salem), P Kumar (Trichy), R Gopalakrishnan (Madurai) and D John Thangam (Kannyakumari).

(2) Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA): Like so many constituents of the UPA, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) too is struggling, to say the least. Apart from the fact that it finished third in the state assembly, even behind Vijayakanth's DMDK, the power struggle within the Dravidian outfit's first family has led many to believe that the DMK would struggle to even cross the two digit mark. The stigma of the multi-crore 2G scam seem to have stuck to the party even after it left the UPA. With Karunanidhi expelling southern strong man Alagiri, the polls are a big test of the leadership for the 'crown prince' Stalin. Aware that the party's tally is set go southwards, the party has tied up with several smaller players like the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), the Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK), the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and the Puthiya Tamizhagam (PT) to consolidate anti-AIADMK votes. The regional player's candidates include Stalin loyalist R Girirajan (Chennai North), T K S Elangovan (Chennai South), A K S Vijayan (Nagapattinam), V Velusamy (Madurai) and former Union Ministers - S. Gandhi Selvan (Namakkal), T R Baalu (Thanjavur) and 2G tainted A Raja (Nilgiris).

(3) Congress: The grand old party is in a fix in the southern most state. Without any strong Dravidian ally on its side, the INC seems to be headed towards doomsday. The fact that several of its key leaders including Finance Minister P Chidambaram and Shipping Minister G K Vasan have refused to contest in 2014 is an indication of the big rout staring in the face of the party. Adding to its woes is the Union government's refusal to back a 'strong' US led resolution against Sri Lanka in the United Nations implicating it of genocide against the country's Tamil population during the last days of the Civil War in 2009. Some of the party's candidates here include Finance Minister's son Karti Chidamabaram (Sivaganga) and veteran leader Mani Shankar Aiyar (Mayiladuturai).

(4) National Democratic Alliance (NDA): Aware that the saffron outfit does not have any significance presence in Tamil country, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) cobbled together the 'Half Rainbow' alliance by bringing together several smaller Dravidian parties to give it a fighting chance, especially after the talks with Jaya failed to materialize. Leading the NDA here is film star Vijayakant of the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) which emerged as the second largest party in the assembly and polled 10 percent of the votes in the 2009 Lok Sabha. Besides, Ramadoss of the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and firebrand leader Vaiko of Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) too have pledged their support to Modi. Other smaller players in this coalition are the Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi (KMDK) which has some influence in the Kongu region and the Indiya Jananayaka Katchi (IJK). The BJP's PM nominee also met superstar Rajnikanth during his visit to Chennai.

PAST PERFORMANCE

In 1996, G K Moopanar split from the Congress over its decision to ally with the AIADMK and formed the Tamil Maanila Congres (Moopanar) - TMC(M). He joined hands with the DMK and the CPI(M) and the alliance - the United Front won all the 39 seats in the state. Two years down the line though, the results were dramatically different. The AIADMK, the PMK, the MDMK and Subramaniam Swamy's Janata Party joined the BJP-led NDA and won 30 seats. The DMK and the TMC(M) finished with a tally of 9. Elections were scheduled a year later as Jaya pulled the plug on the Vajpayee government during the crucial trust vote. The saffron camp now allied with the DMK, Ramados and Vaiko. The new look NDA finished as the largest coalition with 25 seats while Jaya and the Congress took 12 and 2 seats each. In 2004, Jaya was with the BJP whereas the DMK was now in the UPA along with the PMK and MDMK. This was one of the blunders that cost Vajpayee a second consecutive term. The results were a white wash in favor of the UPA. In the last General polls, the UPA continued to dominate with 27 seats whereas the AIADMK combine bagged 12 seats.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (AIADMK)	9	-	10	18	-
Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (DMK)	18	16	12	5	17
Congress	6	6	3	1	9
Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (MDMK)	1	4	4	3	-
Paattali Makkal Katchi (PMK)	-	5	5	4	-
Others	3	4	2	6	22

MY PREDICTIONS

The AIADMK is all set to cross the 20 seat mark and may even end up as the third largest party in the Parliament. Its rally will be dented to some extent by the DMK which is making a come back of sorts. The NDA will pick up a few seats whereas the Congress and others may, at max win up to 2 seats.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	All India Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (AIADMK)	21-25
2	Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (DMK+)	9-13
3	National Democratic Alliance (NDA)	3-6
4	Others (Congress/Left)	0-2

WATCH OUT

(1) Jaya - Potential PM candidate: Should the AIADMK win over 30 seats and there is a chance for a Federal Front to come to power, the party chief will be the strongest contender to become the PM of the nation. Even in the run up to the polls, Amma has on several occasions has given indications that she nurses national ambitions. The shrewd politician that she is, she even walked out of an alliance with the Left parties to maximize her individual tally. Even in case the Third Front may not come to power, Jaya with 30 odd MPs will be in a solid position for some hard bargaining with either the NDA or the UPA.

(2) The split in the DMK and the future of Alagiri: How much of an impact will the suspension of Alagiri have on the prospects of the DMK, especially in the southern districts where Karuna's estranged son has some kind of a clout. The war of succession that began as early as 1996 when Vaiko was shown the door seem to have been settled finally. With his last rival being shunted out and the Marans cut to size, the path is clear for the former Deputy CM Stalin to lead the party in the post Karuna era. Meanwhile, his elder sibling's next move will be very interesting. Though joining the AIADMK can be ruled out, he may join some other party like the BJP or Vaiko's MDMK or even float a new party. One more possibility is that in case the DMK is wiped out, Karuna may even mend fences with Alagiri to strengthen the party.

(3) Performances of the smaller party: In 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the DMDK polled 10 percent of the total votes though it did not pick any seats. In the next state legislative assembly elections, the party ended up as the second largest party. The point I wish to make is that we need to see how the performance of these smaller parties would be and if the coalition stitched together by the BJP would last post elections. I mean, the DMDK, the MDMK and the PMK and the BJP alliance may end up giving a tough fight to the two major Dravidian parties a tough fight. A wild idea, I know but still a possibility.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

WHAT IS IN A MANIFESTO?

VIAKO'S BIZZARE POLL PROMISES

Courtesy: India 272

Led by the firebrand Tamil leader V Gopalsamy alias Vaiko, the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) has never been able to break big in electoral politics in Tamil Nadu. Once seen by many as a potential challenger to the monopoly of the two main Dravidian parties in the state - the DMK and the AIADMK, the outfit has only tasted 'success', I mean, won a handful seats when it has allied with bigger players. Vaiko started his political journey with the DMK and was considered by many as the ideological successor to Karunanidhi. He was the undisputed No 2 in the party, boasting of a huge fan following of his own. However, after it became that Karuna had chosen his sons - M K Stalin and M K Alagiri to lead 'his' outfit, Vaiko left the DMK and floated his own party. Though a sizable number of the DMK cadre joined him, the outfit won no seats on its debut. As we can see from the below chart, Vaiko and his MDMK have been 'fringe' player in Tamil politics. Now, compare this to say, Vijaykanth's DMDK (Link) and you realize that in spite of entering politics in 2005, Captain has managed to attract the anti-DMK, anti-AIADMK votes. On the other hand, Vaiko has failed, rather failed miserably in this regards.

Its easy to see why, Vaiko has never fulfilled his 'true potential' despite being one of the most popular leader in the state. A fiery orator, he is arguably the most vociferous supporter of the banned LTTE in the country. He is said to have met chief Prabhakaran while on a visit to Jaffna and was also jailed under the stringent Prevention of Terrorism Act by Jayalalitha for this. Though I personally do not believe in the Sri Lankan Tamil 'cause' (I think that we have too many problems in our own country and we should think about them rather than interfering in the internal matters of our neighbors), one has to give credit to Vaiko for being firm on his views, especially in a state where netas can change their stance based on which way the wind is blowing. Like a crusader who keeps on fighting for what he believes in, the MDMK boss never loses any opportunity to hit out at the Lankan government. However, what he fails to realize, or perhaps he ignores is the fact that while they have solidarity for their brethren across the Palk Strait, the people of Tamil Nadu, like in all other states want their leaders to tackle their basic needs. If only, the Lankan Tamils could vote in India Vaiko would surely have occupied the top posts.

	Year	Election	Alliance	Seats Won
1	1996	State Elections	Left	0
2	1996	General Elections	-	0
3	1998	General Elections	AIADMK & BJP	3
4	1999	General Elections	DMK & BJP	4
5	2001	State Elections	-	0
6	2004	General Elections	DMK & Congress	4
7	2006	State Elections	AIADMK	6
8	2009	General Elections	Left	1
9	2011	State Elections	-	-

In the upcoming polls, Vaiko is a part of the BJP's grand alliance in Tamil Nadu (Link). Under the pre-poll agreement between the six parties that constitute this front, MDMK will contest seven seats. The coalition will be lead by Vijaykanth. Will this election see Vaiko making an impact? Actually, the MDMK has never won any seats when he has not allied either of the two big regional parties. Although, the NDA looks strong on paper, it remains to be seen if it can make an impact by winning 5 to 10 seats. At the same time you have to keep in mind that Vaiko is a strange politician. The fact that he did not contest the 2011 state elections after talks with Amma failed, proves that he is not power hungry. As such, unlike say the AGP (Link) or the INLD, it is not a do or die elections for him. Having dedicated 'his life to fight for the rights of the Lankan Tamils', electoral results won't impact him personally. However, keeping in mind, the future of his party, especially after he steps down, it needs a good tally to remain relevant.

For that to happen, Vaiko has to make the right kind of noise and strike a chord with the people. Sadly, one look at the MDMK's manifesto, you realize that he has not learnt from his past mistakes. He talks about Tamil pride, Tamils in Jaffna and in other parts of the world. However, regarding the things on the ground, the ones that matter to the electorate, he doesn't seem to have any opinion. I know many of the MDMK supporters will argue with me on this. They will say what has the BJP done on the issue of Ram Mandir which has been mentioned in its manifesto since its inception. This despite of being in power for 6 years. And the Congress has never been able to curb poverty even after ruling the nation for six decades. Moreover, unlike in the West, not many Indians read the manifesto before voting for a candidate. However, the point that I am trying to make is that after joining politics, you need to talk about the issues that concern the people whom you wish to represent. However, in the MDMK manifesto, I find rather 'trivial' subjects, some of which do not matter to anyone, except for Vaiko, I guess. I want to specifically pick up certain points mentioned in the document and show you how the MDMK seems to be losing the plot and may end up with no seats even in 2014.

There has always been a feeling amongst Southern Indians, particularly the Tamilians that politics in the country is dominated by the Hindi speaking people and to be frank, this is to some extent, is a valid argument. As such, Dravidian politicians have used the plank of 'federalism' to get even with the counterparts in the heartland. One of the key features in the manifesto of all Tamil parties has been increasing the powers of the state government and scrapping of the Concurrent List. However, Vaiko has other ideas too. To 'further strengthen the federal structure of the nation', the MDMK chief wants to rename the country as 'United States of India'. Now, can anyone please explain to me as to how adopting a new name will help make the states powerful? I agree that the USA is a model nation for any federal state; however, its success is certainly not because of its name. I hope Vaiko gets this point. Next, in a bid to strike an emotional chord with the electorate, he has asked for revoking the ban on the LTTE and pressurizing the Lankan government to hold a referendum in the Tamil dominated north. It is unfortunate that the MDMK supremo has not yet accepted the stark reality - the LTTE, a terrorist organization was responsible for the death of one of our Prime Ministers. Besides, it was responsible for the death of hundreds of Indian soldiers who were stationed in the island country as a part of the Peace Keeping force in the early 90s. There is no way that the people of the country can forgive these extremists for such incidents and there is no question, whatsoever of revoking the ban.

One can understand Vaiko's demand for a referendum; after all, he seems to care more about Lankan Tamils than people in his own state. However, the fact remains that India just cannot force Ceylon to take steps which can potential harm its territorial integrity. Sri Lanka is an important strategic partner for India and we cannot afford to anger them. While it may not be have much influence on the international stage, we need to realize that our relations with the islanders is extremely crucial. Moreover, if we end up 'hurting' the Lankans, they will gravitate towards the Chinese who are trying to increase their influence in the Indian Ocean region. Moreover, similar demands from nations like Pakistan to settle the long standing dispute of Kashmir will prove detrimental to our interests. As if these demand were not enough, the MDMK has called for Tamils to be appointed as ambassadors to countries with significant Tamil population. Well, the 70 year old will know that ambassadors are representative of the country and are expected to work towards improving bilateral talks and solve differences and not to protect that country's ethnic Tamil population. Some times I wonder whether leaders of smaller parties have 'small, narrow-minded outlook'. In a bid to cater to their own vote bank, they just fail to see the national picture.

There are certain points in the MDMK manifesto which are good - protecting Tamil fishermen, establishing a bench of the Supreme Court in the South and inter-linking of rivers. However, I expect a senior politician and in my opinion, the most honest Dravidian politician to be more thoughtful. It will help our country if even our regional players would see the big picture before making 'unnecessary noise'. That would go a long way in making India a true federal democracy.

THE RACE FOR ALLIES

THE FIVE ALLIANCES WHICH COULD DECIDE WHO WINS 2014

The last time that the people voted for a single party government was way back in 1984 when the Indian National Congress won an unprecedented 414 seats due to the sympathy wave owing to the assassination of the PM Indira Gandhi. In fact, in every Lok Sabha elections since 1989, no party has been able to cross the half way mark on its own. The coalition era, characterized by the decline of the Congress, the inability of the BJP to penetrate into the southern and eastern parts of the country and the rise of regional aspirations is here to stay. There is nothing to indicate that the 2014 polls will be any way different. As such, the Congress and the BJP are going all out to woo new allies in a bid to strengthen their position. The elevation of Modi may have hurt the saffron outfit's chances of winning over friends but the BJP has managed to get back estranged leaders like Kalyan Singh and B S Yeddyurappa back into the party fold. At the same time, other regional player like the TDP and the YSR Congress in Andhra as well as the MDMK and the PMK in Tamil Nadu have been sending out feelers to the primary opposition. If there is one thing that the Congress is doing better than the BJP, at least for the time being is finding newer coalition partners. The grand old party is said to be in talks with the DMK in Tamil Nadu, the TRS in Andhra, the JD(U), the RJD and the LJP in Bihar, the AIUDF in Assam and the big daddy of them all, the BSP in Uttar Pradesh. Here is a look at five alliances which in my opinion could prove to be decisive in the upcoming General polls in my opinion.

(5) BJP's rainbow alliance in Tamil Nadu: When the BJP decided to declare the Gujarat CM as their PM nominee (Link) there was a feeling that the party will end up alienating itself in the big elections. However, the

PMK's Ramdoss and MDMK's Vaiko

party itself decided to take the risk as it hoped that the image of Modi as a strong, non corrupt leader will help it win the votes of the masses, besides galvanizing the party cadre. The gamble seems to have worked and the response that the BJP leader got at the Trichy rally in the state made it a sought after ally amongst the smaller Dravidian parties. At the same time, the break up of the Congress-DMK alliance has made the matters worse for both of them. Many had speculated that the AIADMK under Jaya would be a natural ally of the BJP considering her strong personal equations with Modi. However, Amma ruled out all talks of pre-poll alliance with any party, aware that a tally of over 30 seats would make her indispensable for the formation of a stable regime at the centre. Although the AIADMK has decided to go solo, MDMK's Vaiko has joined hands with the BJP. His outfit has pockets of influence in western and southern parts of Tamil Nadu. At the same time, PMK's Ramadoss which has support base amongst the Vaniyyar community is also keen to forge a partnership with the saffron party. The BJP is also trying to rope in Vijaykanth's DMDK in their front (Link). The problem here is that Ramadoss and Vijaykanth who both have political interests in northern parts of the state may not get along well. I know many may think that the BJP front may not get too many seats. Actually it would be great even if it manages to win about 3-5 seats. However, the thing to note here is that, considering that the BJP has negligible presence here, winning every single seat would be like a bonus.

(4) The Congress-JMM tie up in Jharkhand: One of the earliest pre poll alliance before the Lok Sabha polls came in July 2013 when the INC joined hands with Shibu Soren's JMM to end the impasse in Ranchi which

Hemant and Shibu Soren

was placed under the President's Rule. Under this agreement, Hemant Soren was sworn in as the ninth Chief Minister of the tribal state with support from the Congress, RJD and some independents. At the same time, a deal for fighting the big polls was stuck under which the INC will fight 10 seats whereas the JMM would field candidates from four places. While the state may send just fourteen MPs to the Parliament, the coalition may have a large impact on the results. To realize the importance of this tie-up, one has to understand that the political sphere in the state is highly fragmented and even a small swing of votes can lead to dramatic shifts. A look at the 2010 legislative assembly will help us in this regards. In this elections, both the BJP and the JMM won the highest number of seats, which was 18. The Congress and Babulal Marandi's JVM(P) won 13 and 11 seats respectively. Having joined hands, the INC-JMM tie-up will help consolidation of their votes. The last time the two came together in 2004 they won thirteen seats. In fact, the lone BJP MP from here was Marandi who has long left the party. Jharkhand is one state in central India where the BJP has to do more considering that its proposal for an alliance with the JVM(P) has been turned down by Marandi. The agreement is a win-win situation for both the INC and the Sorens; for the ailing Shibu, it is an opportunity to pass on the baton to his son. Having got the lion's share of seats, the Congress has reduced much of its dependence over the JMM which history shows, is not a reliable ally.

(3) The UPA in Bihar: Now moving from Jharkhand to neighboring Bihar, the divorce between the BJP and the JD(U) has opened a plethora of possibilities. The Namo wave is growing stronger, the way the

RJD's Lalu and LJP's Paswan

Gujarat CM continued with his Patna rally in spite of the bomb blast has further added to his popularity. As such, it is but natural for the Congress to hunt for new allies in the state. With the UPA facing anti-incumbency and the party having a weak organization here in Patna, it seems to be its only chance. Ram Vilas Paswan of the LJP who drew a blank in the last Parliamentary polls has already expressed his desire to fight the polls in alliance with the INC. Now the big question is whether the third partner here will be Nitish's JD(U) or Lalu Yadav's RJD. Some time back, Rahul Gandhi had asked Nitish to dump the BJP and join the UPA for protecting the 'secular' traditions of the country. Considering Kumar's clean image and his development work, allying with him might be a good option. At the same time, the INC is aware that the CM's plummeting ratings and the anti-incumbency factor may force it to rethink. On the other hand, RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav who has come out of a small stint in jail in the multi-crore Fodder scam (Link) is aiming to use the upcoming polls as an opportunity to resurrect his political fortunes. The issue of allying with Lalu has its own set of problems. The corruption charges against the former CM may hurt the party's prospects here. The last time the three parties i.e. the INC, the RJD and the LJP came together in 2004, they swept the polls, winning 29 out of the 40 seats. However, at this juncture, like the BJP alliance in Tamil Nadu, every seat that the UPA wins here will make it more difficult for Modi to become the PM.

(2) The Ruling Alliances have the edge in Punjab and Kerala: Now I am sticking my neck out and saying that the ruling coalitions in the states of Punjab and Kerala may sweep the polls in their respective states. The Akali-BJP

The Badals

combine did the impossible in 2012 when it romped to power, the first time that an incumbent government had been voted back to power in decades in the northern state. In the last two years, the Badals have done nothing grossly wrong so as to indicate that they is any large scale dissatisfaction with them. The failure of the Manpreet Badal led PPP to make an impact and the high inflation rates will benefit the SAD. For the BJP, it has managed to placate Amritsar MP Navjot Singh Sidhu who was reportedly unhappy with the central leadership for being sidelined. In 2009, the INC grabbed 8 seats here, largely owing to the popularity of the PM Manmohan Singh. With Singh having announced his retirement, this elections may well see the ruling

The LDF

combine winning about 10 seats from here. On similar lines, the United Democratic Front (UDF) government in Kerala is expected to do exceeding well as per the CNN IBN-Lok Niti prediction. According to the survey, it may win anywhere between 12 to 18 seats, reducing the Left Front to single digits. Such a result may have a significant impact on the Third Front. The Communists have been the ones who have time and again called for a non-Congress, non-BJP government in Delhi. However, in 2014, they may find it extremely difficult to even win more than 20 seats. In Bengal, Mamata's TMC is believed to be sweeping the elections. At this time, the comrades only hope was to do well in their southern bastion. If they fail to win over 10 seats here, the Reds may have absolutely no significance whatsoever in the next Lok Sabha.

(1) The Maha Yuti in Maharashtra: The Congress along with its ally, Sharad Powar's NCP has been in power in Mumbai for three consecutive terms. Besides facing anti-incumbency both in the state as well as at

The Maha Yuti

the Centre, the allegations of corruption in the Adarsh society scam has tainted the image of the local regime. In fact, in the last five years, the Congress has changed three Chief Ministers here. At the same time, the NCP is having troubles of its own (Link). It is being reported that the traditional NCP vote bank, the Marathas of Western Maharashtra are exploring other options. At the same time, the Irrigation scam in which allegations were made against Ajith Powar has further dented its image. While the ruling combine is struggling, the Opposition in the state is united and stronger than ever before. Following the death of its supremo Balasaheb, the Shiv Sena under Uddhav is on the rise. The factionalism within the BJP which had split into two camps here, one led by Gopinath Munde and the other by Nitin Gadkari following the death of Pramod Mahajan is now a thing of the past. The Athavale led Republican Party of India will help the front gather Dalit votes. Now Raju Shetty led Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatan has also joined hands with them. The only consolation for the INC-NCP regime is that Raj Thackeray led MNS may led to the split in the traditional Marathi votes, especially in Mumbai. However, it is believed that the BJP is planning to mend this loophole. While bringing the two Senas together may not be possible, the saffron outfit may enter a strategic alliance with Raj under which they will nominate weak leaders in each other's bastion. The Maha Yuti as it is called may even win over 30 seats of the 48 in Maharashtra.

IMAGES 

(1) PMK's Ramdoss and MDMK's Vaiko
Original: The Hindu - PMK, MDMK not to contest bypoll (Link)

(2) Hemant and Shibu Soren
Original: Jharkhand State News - Hemant with his father Shibu Soren to fly to Delhi, efforts to form government on (Link)

(3) RJD's Lalu and LJP's Paswan
Original: Indian Express - Lalu-Paswan deal not acceptable, says Congress (Link)

(4) The Badals
Original: The Tribune - SAD takes recourse to Panthic agenda (Link)

(5) The UDF
Original: The UDF (Link)

(6) The Maha Yuti
Original: Maha Yuti seals seat-sharing pact (Link)

TAMIL NADU'S MOST WANTED

DMDK'S VIJAYKANTH IS BEING WOOED BY BJP AND DMK

Courtesy: The Hindu

In the 1980s, actor Vijaykanth was considered amongst the top three superstars of the Tamil film industry along with Rajnikanth and Kamal Hassan. Now, three decades down the line, he is probably the most third most popular politician in the southern state, trailing the incumbent CM Jayalalitha and her predecessor Karunanidhi while leaving the likes of MDMK's Vaiko and PMK's Ambu Mani Ramadoss far behind. The journey has been remarkable; after delivering a rather long list of mediocre and below average cinematic performances throughout the early 2000s, 'Captain' as he is fondly called by fans and followers, took the big step into politics by forming the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) in 2005. Though he was the only candidate from his party to win the polls, he did make an impact with his party securing about 10 percent of the total votes. With a vow to dislodge the DMK from power, he entered into a pre-poll tie up with the AIADMK for the 2011 elections. Riding on the anti-incumbency wave, the alliance swept the polls with DMDK winning 29 of the 41 seats which it contested. After pushing the DMK to the third position and refusing to join the Jayalalitha cabinet, Vijaykanth became the Leader of the Opposition in the state assembly. Never in the history of Tamil Nadu had any party made such an impact in such little time since 1975 when another superstar, MGR romped to power after his public spat with Karunanidhi.

A careful analysis of his actions since 2010 indicates that Vijaykanth is aiming to do what many before him have tried to do but failed - be a third viable political option to the people of Tamil Nadu. In 2011 when there was a wave against the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (DMK) regime which was embodied in corruption and nepotism, he allied with the AIADMK. Banking on anti-incumbency, he increased his number from one to a whopping twenty-nine seats in the next polls. Speaking at a press conference following the victory, he took the credit for pushing Karunanidhi out of power, claiming that it would have been impossible for Jaya to win if it was not for him. After this phenomenal performance, he refused to be a part of the government, preferring instead to become the Leader of the Opposition. In a state which is known to vote out its ruling regime each time, Vijay's decision to stay out of the government seemed to be the right one. This position gives him enough media coverage whereas staying away from power negates any effect that anti-incumbency can have in 2016. Now the former actor is training his guns against the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (AIADMK) government to garner public support. In what is seen as a symbolic show of strength, his party even contested the Delhi elections last year where it got 2300 votes. In fact with his popularity at its peak, Vijaykanth has become Tamil country's most wanted. Both the BJP and the DMK are doing their best to forge an alliance with him. However, wooing him will not be so easy; the DMDK supremo has laid down his condition for coalition - that he will himself lead any front that his outfit will be a part of.  

Considering that he had taken a vow to dislodge the DMK from power, it may come as a surprise for many that Karunanidhi is so eager to align with the DMDK. After Alagiri hit out at Vijaykanth in an interview to a TV channel, Karuna made it clear that he would not even hesitate to sack his elder son in case the Madurai strongman does not stop his tirade against his prospective alliance partner. Considering the abysmal situation that the party finds itself in, allying with the DMDK seems to be the only option if it wants to open its account in the General polls. The alleged involvement of leaders like Kanimozhi and former Union Telecom minister A Raja in the multi-crore 2G spectrum scam led to bad press. At the same time, the failure of the UPA government at the Centre to reprimand Sri Lanka for allegedly committing atrocities against Tamils in the Jaffna region during the final days of the civil war added to the already strong anti-incumbency wave. It was under these circumstances that the DMK was relegated to the third position in the 2011 state elections. Trying to pin the blame on the Congress for the disastrous defeat, Karuna walked out off the UPA at the Centre. On the other hand, after coming to power, Amma has not done anything dramatically wrong so as to suggest that she will not do well in 2014. It is expected that under present conditions, the AIADMK is all set to sweep the Lok Sabha. In fact, the party cadre has even projected her as the Prime Ministerial candidate. The DMK supremo has no option with him. With the party health further deteriorating following differences between his sons Alagiri and Stalin, joining hands with Vijaykanth might help the DMK electorally. In a state known for vindictive politics, Karunanidhi seems to be ready to forget all names that Captain had called him in 2011, just for political gains. As they say, there are no permanent friends or enemies in politics. The problem for the DMK strong man is that some sections within the DMDK are against allying with him. They believe that the partnership will only harm the party's prospects, adversely affecting its performance in 2016.

Apart from the DMK, another party that is trying to be cozy with the DMDK is the BJP. A marginal player in Tamil Nadu for many years, the saffron outfit is hoping that the Modi wave in the Hindi heartland will help it do well even in the southern states where it does not have any significant presence. The massive crowds witnessed at the Gujarat CM's rally in Trichy is an indication that the BJP is all set to see a surge in its support base in this part of the country. Dr Subramanyam Swamy's entry into the party will help it gain Brahmin votes. However, the party is not taking any chances and planning a grand alliance of smaller players including the MDMK, PMK and DMDK to fight the DMK and the AIADMK. Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (MDMK) chief Vaiko expressed his desire to side with the saffron party ahead of the 2014 polls. His tough stance on the emotive issue of Lankan Tamils will help garner votes. The Paattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) which has a strong presence in the northern parts of the state, especially amongst the Vaniyar community, may play a spoil sport here. Though party leader Ramadoss is keen on a tie up with the BJP, he has opposed the inclusion of the DMDK in the front since both have similar political interests in northern Tamil Nadu. While the national party is hopeful that both the Dravidian parties will join hands with it, differences over seat sharing could jeopardize campaigning. It was earlier reported that even the Congress was keen on a tie-up with Captain with Rahul even wishing Captain on his 61^st birthday. Considering the anti-UPA wave in the nation and its indecisiveness over the Lankan issue, it seems that the veteran actor has ruled out this possibility for the time being.

The 2014 General polls will turn out to be extremely crucial for Vijaykanth. After its superb performance in 2011, it will be interesting to see if the DMDK can sustain the momentum which was punctured to some extent after several of its MLAs voted for AIADMK candidate in the Rajya Sabha elections, defying the party whip. A good show in the Lok Sabha polls of 2014 and a cabinet berth for some of his MPs at the Centre will help him increase his influence across the state. In case the manages to even touch a figure of 5 seats, he will move closer to his dream of being the third alternative in Tamil politics. On the other hand, you can expect few more of its MLAs to switch loyalties in case he draws a blank - a scenario where he will be back to square one. There is a feeling amongst many that it will be hard for the party to emulate its performance in 2011. They say that his alliance with AIADMK and the anti-DMK vote helped him win 20 odd seats. His inability to keep his flock together and his 'haughty' personality may further damage his credentials. Against this backdrop, the decision of allying either with the DMK or the BJP will not be an easy and will have a tremendous bearing on the future of the DMDK. Vijaykanth has made it clear that a decision in this regards will be made on February 2 at the party's state meet in Ulundurpet. Till then, all those wooing him have to wait and watch.

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: The Hindu
Original: DMDK alliance decision on February 2 (Link)